THE SECOND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY: A Review and Appraisal

Diverse pathways to permanent childlessness in Singapore: A latent class analysis

The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region's childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon's entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive cohorts. Results revealed five distinct profiles of pathways to childlessness: the Never-Married Semi-Professionals, the Low-Flex Blue-Collars, the Highly Educated Professionals, the Ever-Married Semi-Professionals, and the Flexible Blue-Collars. These pathway profiles were significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics such as gender and family background. Women's pathways to childlessness were more standardized and heavily influenced by partnership characteristics, compared to those of men. The childless from privileged family background were less likely to follow pathways characterized by disadvantageous education and occupational status. There were also rising trends of voluntary childlessness among married childless individuals and increasing heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness across successive birth cohorts. In sum, our findings are consistent with some of the predictions of the Second Demographic Transition theory, suggesting that Singapore may be experiencing a demographic transition characterized by rising childlessness, decoupling of marriage and childbearing, and de-standardization of the life course.

Lifecourse trajectories and cross-generational trends in social isolation: Findings from five successive British birth cohort studies

Despite growing concerns in the UK about social isolation, there remains a lack of data on the extent and time trends of social isolation from longitudinal, population-based studies. There is also little research that assesses the multiple domains of social isolation across the lifecourse and between generations in a holistic way accounting for different contexts. By applying a multi-context, multi-domain framework of social isolation to 5 successive British birth cohorts, we provide conceptual and empirical understanding of social isolation trajectories across the lifecourse and identify potential generational and sex differences in trends. Where data were available, comparable social isolation indicators were generated to enable lifecourse trajectories and cross-generational trends to be explored. Information on isolation was available across the following relational contexts: household i.e., living alone; partnership, family and friends outside the household; education and employment networks; and community engagement. Trajectories were modelled stratified by sex using a multilevel growth curve framework. Data were analysed from 73,847 individuals (48.5% female), in 5 successive cohorts born in 1946 (N = 5,362), 1958 (N = 16,742), 1970 (N = 16,950), 1989-90 (N = 15,562), and 2000-01 (N = 19,231). Exploring a range of social isolation indicators across several contexts provided a nuanced picture of social isolation across the lifecourse and between generations in the UK, with no consistent pattern of increased or decreased isolation over time. For example, more people are living alone, less women are out of education and employment in midlife, more people are volunteering, but fewer people regularly engage in religious activity. It therefore highlights the need to focus on a range of social isolation indicators across contexts to understand how people compensate for specific types of isolation, and to understand structural differences in social configurations in the UK, which may not only define the timing and sequencing of life transitions but also social isolation.

Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition? Evidence From Canada and the United States

A central premise of the first demographic transition theory is that demographic change would occur more slowly in rural than urban areas. Few studies, however, have investigated whether rural areas remain holdouts during the second demographic transition. To address this gap, this study (1) examines trends among rural and urban families in Canada and the United States over a 30-year period and (2) determines whether compositional differences in demographic, socioeconomic, and religious factors explain current differences between rural and urban families. We find that rural Canadian women continue to have, on average, 0.6 more children than urban women. However, rural families do not trail behind urban families on any other indicator of family change. In fact, rural women in both countries are now significantly more likely to cohabit and roughly 10 percentage points more likely to have children outside of marriage than urban women. These differences are largely explained by lower levels of education and income among rural American women and fewer immigrants in rural Canada. Examining family change through a rural-urban lens fills important empirical gaps and yields novel insights into current debates on the fundamental causes of ongoing family change in high-income countries.

Women's childbearing histories and their alcohol use at midlife

There has been increased alcohol use among mid-life women in recent decades. Given the association between alcohol use and childbearing earlier in life and the centrality of childbearing for other aspects of mid-life women's health, we examined how multiple components of childbearing histories were associated with mid-life alcohol use. Our analysis included 3,826 women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79). We estimated how nine components of childbearing were associated with women's alcohol use at age 50. We investigated these components independently and also created six childbearing profiles using Mixed-Mode Latent Class Analysis (MM-LCA). The most alcohol was consumed by women without any childbirths, with older ages at first birth, with low parity, and with the same or fewer births than expected. Women with older ages at first and last birth and more childbirths were less likely to abstain from alcohol compared to women with younger ages at first and last birth and fewer childbirths. Our MM-LCA demonstrated that women with multiple childbirths over a long period of time consumed the least alcohol compared to other groups. Binge drinking at mid-life was generally not associated with childbearing histories in our models. In summary, childbearing histories mattered for women's drinking behaviors at mid-life. Given that an increasing number of women do not have children, the age at first birth continues to trend older, and parity is decreasing, we may expect mid-life women's alcohol use to continue to increase in line with these observed fertility trends.

Family structure, socioeconomic status, and mental health in childhood

The changing landscape of family structures over the last decades has led to a growing need to investigate its impact on children's well-being. This study examined differences in mental health among children from different family compositions and how these differences may be affected by familial socioeconomic status (SES). Data were collected within the LIFE Child study. Participants included 2828 children aged 3-17 years raised in traditional families, stepfamilies, or single-parent families. Mental health was measured using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ (behavioral strengths and difficulties)) and the KIDSCREEN-27 questionnaire (quality of life). Linear regression analyses were applied to examine associations between family structure, SES, and mental health outcomes. Children from single-parent families exhibited worse mental health outcomes than those from traditional families across all domains of the SDQ and the KIDSCREEN-27. Children from stepfamilies showed significantly higher Total Difficulties scores (B = 1.29 and 1.42), with 3- to 10-year-olds displaying higher scores in the Hyperactivity & Inattention (B = 0.61) and Peer Relationship Problems (B = 0.36) subscales, and 11- to 17-year-olds showing higher Conduct Problems (B = 0.31), Emotional Symptoms (B = 0.58), and a worse Parent Relationship scores (B = - 1.82) than children from traditional families (all p < 0.05). After controlling for SES, several associations between family structure and mental health lost significance, while others persisted, particularly among older children. To promote mental health in non-traditional families, interventions should address socioeconomic disparities while also investigating factors contributing to the direct impact of family structure on mental well-being.Trial registration The LIFE Child study is registered on clinicaltrials.gov (No. NCT02550236).

Stratified pathways to Italy's "latest-late" transition to adulthood

During the last few decades, Western societies have undergone substantial social and demographic changes, and the transition to adulthood progressively moved from an early, contracted, and simple pattern to a late, protracted, and complex one. These trends have been extensively analyzed under the Second Demographic Transition framework, emphasizing the role of individual agency and ideational change. A growing parallel literature underlines social stratification, the gender revolution, and contextual opportunities as driving forces. This paper builds on this emerging literature to analyze trends of the transition to adulthood in Italy, a salient social and demographic context among the "lowest-low" fertility countries. Drawing from the European Social Survey 2018 data, I use Sequence Analysis to compute a taxonomy of ideal types of transition to adulthood and analyze their evolution across cohorts. These analyses show that the emergence of a late and protracted transition to adulthood, associated with "lowest-low" fertility levels, is stratified by gender and socioeconomic background. This study contributes to the growing literature on the social stratification of life course trajectories and the relevance of contextual opportunities and constraints by analyzing the transition to adulthood in a low-opportunity context from a longitudinal, stratified perspective.

Implications of the Theory of Basic Human Values for the Second Demographic Transition: Interdependence and Individualism in the Era of Self-Fulfillment

I examine the implications of a modern psychological theory of values for the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The SDT derives its values theory and measurement from Maslow, who noted that resource-rich environments cause value shifts towards personal-focused growth values. However, Maslow has been replaced by the theory of basic human values (TBHV) which distinguishes person and social-focused growth values. This distinction has two important implications for the SDT. First, some individualistic and self-expressive values identified by the SDT are not growth but basic need motivated and therefore functions of resource-poor environments. Second, the TBHV values on interdependence and independence are strongly influenced by gender and reflect preferences for family and care or career. Therefore, these values can be used to address critiques of the SDT based on the stalled gender revolution. I show that distinguishing values as described in the TBHV can be useful for the SDT. I find that benevolence (interdependence) is positively and openness to change (autonomy/stimulation) is negatively related to marriage in the Netherlands using longitudinal panel data and discrete event history models.

A matter of time: Bateman's principles and mating success as count and duration across social strata in contemporary Finland

Bateman's principles heavily influence the understanding of human reproductive behaviour. Yet, few rigorous studies on Bateman's principles in contemporary industrialized populations exist. Most studies use small samples, exclude non-marital unions, and disregard recent insights on within-population heterogeneity in mating strategies. We assess mating success and reproductive success using population-wide Finnish register data on marital and non-marital cohabitations and fertility. We examine variability across social strata in the Bateman principles and analyse the mate count, the cumulated duration with a mate, and the association with reproductive success. Results support Bateman's first and second principles. Regarding Bateman's third principle, the number of mates is more positively associated with reproductive success for men than women, but this association is driven by ever having a mate. Having more than one mate is on average associated with lower reproductive success. However, for men in the lowest income quartile, having more than one mate positively predicts reproductive success. Longer union duration is associated with higher reproductive success, and more so for men. We note that sex differences in the relationship between mating success and reproductive success differ by social strata, and argue that mate duration may be an important component of mating success alongside mate count.

The changing social gradient of marriage and cohabitation in seven Latin American countries

While research shows that cohabitation has increased significantly among highly educated individuals in Latin America, much less is known about how the relationship between educational attainment and first union formation has changed over time and across the region's countries. Accordingly, this paper describes the changes across cohorts in the type of first union (marriage or cohabitation) entered by women from seven Latin American countries. It also analyzes trends in the relationship between women's education and the type of first union within and between these countries. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, life tables, discrete-time event history models, and predicted probabilities were estimated to analyze the changing determinants of first-union formation. The results pointed to an overall increase in first-union cohabitation over time, with some important differences across countries. The multivariate analysis suggested that women's education influences the type and sequencing of the first union, with socioeconomically disadvantaged women increasingly likely to transition to early unions and enter cohabitation rather than marriage.

Stability and Relevance of Marriage Desires: Importance of Age Norms and Partnering Opportunities

Objective

This study investigates shifts in marriage desires during singlehood and the potential consequences associated with these shifts in Japan, a country epitomizing later and less marriage without substantial increases in nonmarital childbearing.

Background

Despite researchers' long-standing interest in values potentially motivating demographic changes, few have systematically examined marriage desires among unmarried adults. Even fewer have considered how marriage desires may change during adulthood and how relevant such changes are to marriage and family behavior.

Method

The analysis uses 11 waves of the Japan Life Course Panel Survey, which tracks singles' marriage desires yearly. Fixed effects models are estimated to demonstrate factors associated with within-person changes and account for unobserved heterogeneity.

Results

Japanese singles' marriage desires decline with age but are stronger when they perceive greater opportunities to form romantic relationships or marriage. Singles experiencing an increase in the desire to marry are more likely to take actions to seek partners and to enter a romantic relationship or marriage subsequently. The associations between marriage desires and the various behavioral changes strengthen with age and feasibility of marriage. Increases in marriage desires also correspond to increases in single men's parenthood desires and ideal numbers of children, and the link between marriage desires and fertility preferences is stronger as they age.

Conclusion

Marriage desires are not always stable or equally relevant throughout singlehood. Our study suggests that age norms and partnering opportunities both contribute to the fluctuation of marriage desires and affect when such desires would have behavioral implications.

The prospective power of personality for childbearing: a longitudinal study based on data from Germany

The link between personality and fertility is relatively underexplored. Moreover, there are only a few studies focusing on the prospective association between personality and childbearing. However, none of these studies considered the Five-Factor Model (FFM), which is the most widely accepted measurement of personality. The present study fills this gap by examining the prospective association between the FFM and the hazard ratio of the first and the second childbirth in Germany. Analyses are based on recent data (2005–2017) from the Socio-economic Panel Study. Cox proportional hazard models are applied. Findings demonstrate that personality traits are associated with fertility. Extraversion is positively linked with the first childbirth, but is negatively associated with the second childbirth. These findings are mainly driven by males. Agreeableness is positively linked with the first childbirth across the total sample. Again, this correlation is mainly based on the findings for men, among whom a positive association between agreeableness and the second childbirth is also found. Among women, personality does not seem to be linked with the first childbirth. However, the risk of having a second child is found to be negatively associated with conscientiousness. My study adds to the current understanding of the personality–fertility association by exploring the impact of personality trait scores from the FFM on subsequent fertility behavior. However, further research is needed on the association between personality and childbearing; on the mechanisms through which personality affects fertility; and on how these links differ across cultures, among higher parities, and for births after re-partnering.

The Association between Religiosity and Fertility Intentions Via Grandparenting: Evidence from GGS Data

Although the literature concerning the association between religiosity and fertility in European countries is already quite extensive, studies exploring the mechanisms of action of religiosity are rare. The main aim of this article is to investigate whether grandparental childcare is a mediating or moderating variable in the association between attendance at religious services and the intention to have a second or third child. Building on previous literature, we assume that parents who are more religious might put more effort into establishing a positive relation with the grandparents of their child/children. Consequently, compared to parents who are less religious, those who are more religious could be more receptive to possible encouragement from grandparents to have another child and may be more optimistic regarding grandparents' involvement with an additional child. Using Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data for eleven European countries, we find evidence of a strong and positive effect of attendance at religious services on fertility intentions. Receipt of regular or weekly help from grandparents positively moderates the association between attendance at religious services and fertility intentions, albeit only for male respondents and mainly for the intention to have a second child.

Less Is More? Repartnering and Completed Cohort Fertility in Finland

An extensive literature theorizes the role of repartnering for cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher order unions are nonmarital cohabitations, but most previous studies on completed cohort fertility have analyzed only marital unions, and none have incorporated nonmarital cohabitations using population-level data. To analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women, we use Poisson regression with Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation among the 1969-1972 birth cohorts at ages 18-46. We show that dissolutions of first cohabitations are the main pathway to repartnering and that most higher order unions are cohabitations. Nonmarital repartnering is a strong predictor of low fertility. In contrast, remarriage is positively associated with cohort fertility. Because the bulk of first-union dissolutions and higher order unions are nonmarital, repartnering is not an efficient engine for fertility at the aggregate level. Marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.

Social norms and fertility intentions: Evidence from China

China’s low fertility rates are a major concern across all sectors of society. Fertility is a major issue related to economy, society and family development. Based on social norms theory, this paper explores the influence of social norms on individuals’ fertility intentions from two perspectives: spatial proximity and social proximity. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, we found that individual’s fertility intentions were influenced by social norms; both neighborhood social norms and group social norms had significant effects. The role of social norms in shaping individual fertility intentions varied by gender, hukou, and life course; specifically, men, rural residents, and married individuals were more significantly influenced by social norms. This study improves the theoretical framework of fertility decision making by arguing that in addition to macro and individual factors, social norms have a very important influence on fertility intentions. Our findings suggest that reshaping social norms regarding fertility is essential to enhance fertility rates in China.

A second demographic transition in Indonesia?

As a predominantly Muslim and ethnically diverse new democracy in Asia, Indonesia is a timely case to study how the contending forces of development and social change are reflected in changing norms and practices around family formation. This paper examines the extent to which the second demographic transition (SDT) theory can provide a primary framework to understand contemporary patterns of fertility, marriage and family change in Indonesia. Against the backdrop of socio-political change following Reformasi in 1998, we found emerging demographic features typically associated with societies in later stages of fertility transition. These include fertility below replacement in some regions; increasing age at first marriage, non-marriage, and divorce rates; and growing diversity in household/family forms. As the vast regions of Indonesia is economically, culturally, and demographically heterogeneous, these key features of SDT are not likely to emerge and unfold in a uniform manner. Further, these demographic shifts are taking place amidst multiple tensions and contradictions in the nature and direction of ideational change pertaining to marriage and the family. We argue that the prevailing ideational change driving the shifts in marriage, fertility, and the family within Indonesia is neither unilinear nor singular in nature. Emerging ideational change embodying individualism, secularism, and post-materialism—originally proposed in SDT theory to be the primary drivers of fertility decline in post-industrial Western Europe—can overlap with popular values promoting de-secularization and the strengthening of familial institutions. As a demographic framework, the SDT theory is an important and useful starting point. But it needs to be reevaluated by considering the complex socio-political and increasingly precarious economic terrains behind fertility transition, as well as marriage and family change in post-Reformasi Indonesia.

Projecting Spanish fertility at regional level: A hierarchical Bayesian approach

The transition from a demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility to one with low mortality and low fertility is universal and comes along with the process of socio-economic modernization. The Spanish total fertility rate has decreased to below replacement levels in the last decades. The decline has persisted since the 1960s and is diverse across the country. Based on that diversity, the use of population forecasts, not only at national but at regional levels, for planning purposes (governments and private sector) with large horizons has become a must to provide essential services. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model we constructed probabilistic fertility forecasts for Spain at the regional level. Although this approach is already issued by the United Nations little research has been done focusing on the Spanish subnational level. Our objective is to disaggregate the national projections of the total fertility rate for Spain into regional forecasts. The results of this research will show the model fitting, first to the national level and then using a multifaceted and continuous evolution of fertility over time, at the regional level, to check its convergence.

Is there a Chinese pattern of the second demographic transition?

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a useful theoretical framework for explaining the recent trend in many countries of very low fertility combined with alternative union and family types. Although past studies have observed the SDT in many Western societies, whether it is applicable to East Asia remains unclear. Capitalizing on data from the Chinese Census and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of key behavioral and ideational indicators of the SDT. We find that union formation in China has trended increasingly toward patterns commonly observed in the West, including delayed age of marriage and the common practice of premarital cohabitation. While having a lowest-low fertility rate, China has not experienced rising nonmarital childbirths, a key component of the SDT. However, we observe growing tolerance toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Marriages remain relatively stable in China, especially among couples with children. Taken together, our analysis suggests that typically coincident changes in patterns of family behavior associated with the SDT are not occurring simultaneously in China. Moreover, ideational changes are preceding behavioral changes, particularly in attitudes toward nonmarital childbearing and childlessness. Our research suggests a different pattern of the SDT in China, which has been heavily influenced by Confucian culture.

Fertility Decision-Making in the UK: Insights from a Qualitative Study among British Men and Women

Scholars are interested in better understanding the low fertility observed in higher income countries. While some people are choosing to have smaller families, countries also report a ‘fertility gap’, which is the proportion of people who end up with fewer children than originally desired. This paper investigates some causes of the fertility gap in the UK. We amassed qualitative data from seven focus groups conducted among men and women of reproductive age with different educational backgrounds. These focus groups suggest that social support is an influential factor for Britons thinking about having children, although discussions differed in terms of whether this was support from partners or parents. Discussions with university-educated women featured themes of career opportunity costs, and non-university men contributed insights on the financial burden of parenthood. This exploratory study provides up-to-date material on unwanted childlessness and the low fertility in the UK, and highlights the merit of using qualitative methods in understanding the fertility gap.

Dietary concepts in the dyad: Results from a qualitative study of middle-aged and older couples

BACKGROUND

The positive effects of a healthy diet on older adults' health status are well established. Yet, inadequate health outcomes prevail. Insufficient healthy dietary styles may be related to the complexity of lay concepts regarding what constitutes a healthy diet. It is hence of importance to disentangle and understand such concepts in depth. The aim of this qualitative study was to explore diet-related intra-couple dynamics and to reconstruct dietary concepts and associated influencing factors among older couples METHODS: The qualitative sample consisted of 15 German couples with at least one partner aged between 50 and 70 years. Study participants were recruited using theoretical sampling. Dyadic guideline-based interviews were conducted from 2016 to 2017. The transcripts were analyzed by means of the Grounded Theory Method RESULTS: Diverse Dyadic dietary concepts emerged from the data material and were shown to be dynamically influenced - among others - within the context of the couple relationship. Three major components showed to be integral to Dyadic dietary concepts: Ideas of healthy diet, Taste and Body images. Moreover, in all of the couples interviewed, one of the partners developed the role of a "Health Expert", who was consensually considered to have more solid health expertise. Different expressions of the HE with corresponding couple dynamics were identified DISCUSSION: This study demonstrates the relevance of diet-related intra-couple dynamics in shaping Dyadic dietary concepts. Particularly, the role of the "Health Expert" within couples showed to decisively influence such concepts. Future research is needed to gain a greater in-depth knowledge on the related influencing factors and couple dynamics. Public health (nutrition) strategies targeting older couples should address such intra-couple dynamics such as the role the partners play for shaping Dyadic dietary concepts.

Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education

Objectives

Along with the development of the times and progress of the society, the total fertility rate (TFR) markedly changed in each country. Therefore, it is critical to describe the trend of TFR and explore its influencing factors. However, previous studies did not consider the time lag and cumulative effect in the associations between the influencing factors and TFR. Thus, our study aimed to analyze the associations from a new dimension.

Methods

The study was employed using national-level data from the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme. Distributed lag non-linear models with 5-year lag were used to examine the independent associations between the relevant factors and TFR.

Results

The cumulative exposure-TFR curves were inverted U-shaped for log gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy at birth, while the cumulative exposure-response curves were approximately linear for female expected years of schooling and human development index (HDI). However, it is worth noting that in the developed regions, TFR increased slightly with the high level of GDP per capita, female expected years of schooling and HDI.

Conclusions

Nowadays, with the growth of GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, female expected years of schooling and HDI, TFR are on a drastic downward trend in most regions. Besides, with the development of society, when levels of the factors continued to increase, TFR also showed a slight rebound. Therefore, governments, especially those in developing countries, should take measures to stimulate fertility and deal with a series of problems caused by declining TFR.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13656-1.

Learning to Value Girls: Balanced Infant Sex Ratios at Higher Parental Education in the United States, 1969-2018

Infant sex ratios that differ from the biological norm provide a measure of gender status inequality that is not susceptible to social desirability bias. Ratios may become less biased with educational expansion through reduced preference for male children. Alternatively, bias could increase with education through more access to sex-selective medical technologies. Using National Vital Statistics data on the population of live births in the United States for 1969-2018, we examine trends in infant sex ratios by parental race/ethnicity, education, and birth parity over five decades. We find son-biased infant sex ratios among Chinese and Asian Indian births that have persisted in recent years, and regressions suggest son-biased ratios among births to Filipino and Japanese mothers with less than a high school education. Infant sex ratios are more balanced at higher levels of maternal education, particularly when both parents are college educated. Results suggest greater equality of gender status with higher education in the United States.

Make up or break up? Partnership transitions among young adults in England and Wales

This study investigates partnership transitions of young adults born between 1974 and 1990 in England and Wales. These cohorts were affected by the expansion of higher education, increasing gender equality, and ideational changes, but faced increased economic precarity caused by the economic and housing crisis. Given these changes, it is likely that the partnership experiences of young adults including marriage, cohabitation, separation, and repartnering have also undergone considerable changes. We apply competing risks event history analysis to combined data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to determine how birth cohort, gender, socio-economic background, and educational attainment influence partnership changes. We study the transition into and out of first cohabitation and marriage and repartnering between age 16 and 27. Cohabitation has become a universal form of first union among young adults born in the late 1970s and 1980s regardless of their socio-economic background or educational level, but their first unions do not last long. While cohabiters are equally likely to marry or separate in the oldest cohort (1974-1979), cohabiting unions are very likely to end in separation among the two youngest cohorts (1980-1984 and 1985-1990). Consequently, repartnering has become common; those in the youngest cohort repartner rather quickly suggesting that an increasing number of individuals experience multiple partnerships. Highly educated young adults have higher rates of entry into first cohabitation than their lower educated counterparts across all cohorts. However, we do not find differences in cohabitation outcomes by socio-economic background and educational level indicating that the main changes have taken place across birth cohorts. The results also suggest that there is a convergence in partnership experiences among young men and women. The increased prevalence of sliding into and out of cohabitation could indicate significant changes in the meaning young people attach to first partnerships.

Childbearing Biographies as a Method to Examine Diversity and Clustering of Childbearing Experiences: A Research Brief

Due to increasing heterogeneity in if, when, and under what conditions women have children, the timing, spacing, and other demographic aspects of childbearing have drastically changed in the US over the past century. Existing science tends to examine demographic aspects of childbearing separately, creating an incomplete understanding of how childbearing patterns are distributed at the population level. In this research brief, we develop the concept of childbearing biographies to emphasize that multiple childbearing characteristics cluster together. We analyze nationally representative US data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79; N=4,052). Using eight childbearing variables (e.g., age at first birth, number of children, whether unmarried at any birth), we use Mixed-Mode Latent Class Analysis (MM-LCA) and identify five classes, or childbearing biographies: (1) early compressed childbearing, (2) staggered childbearing, (3) extended high parity childbearing, (4) later childbearing, and (5) married planned childbearing. A childbearing biography approach highlights the increasingly heterogeneous contexts of parenthood today, showing how women with similar characteristics around one aspect of childbearing (e.g., early age at first birth) can also be highly divergent from each other when taking into consideration other childbearing characteristics. In showing this complexity, we highlight that a childbearing biography approach has the potential to shed new light on widening inequality among contemporary midlife women, with implications for aging and population health and well-being.

Demography's theory and approach: (How) has the view from the margins changed?

Around the time that Population Studies celebrated its 50th anniversary in 1996, Susan Greenhalgh published 'An intellectual, institutional, and political history of twentieth-century demography'. Her contribution described a discipline that, when viewed from its margins, prompted scholars in other disciplines to ask the following questions: 'Why is the field still wedded to many of the assumptions of mid-century modernization theory and why are there no critical … perspectives in the discipline?' (Greenhalgh 1996, p. 27). Those questions still arise today. Similarly, Greenhalgh's observation that 'neither the global political economies of the 1970s, nor the postmodernisms and postcolonialities of the 1980s and 1990s, nor the feminisms of any decade have had much perceptible impact on the field' (pp. 27-8), remains a fairly accurate depiction of research published in Population Studies and other demography journals. In this contribution, focusing predominantly on feminist research and insights, I discuss how little has changed since 1996 and explain why the continued lack of engagement concerns me. Demographers still often fail to appreciate the impossibility of atheoretical 'just descriptive' research. Our methods carry assumptions and so rely on (often) implicit theoretical frameworks. Not making frameworks explicit does not mean they do not exert an important influence. I end by proposing that the training of research students should be part of a strategy to effect change.

Theory and explanation in demography: The case of low fertility in Europe

In the 50th anniversary edition of Population Studies, John Hobcraft commented that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe. A quarter of a century on, this paper looks at the state of theory and explanation in contemporary demography. I ask how demographers have approached the task of explanation since Hobcraft's comment, grounding the discussion in the mainstream literature on low fertility in Europe. Using selected examples, I critically review macro- and micro-level approaches to explanation, highlighting some of the philosophical problems that each encounters. I argue that different conceptions of what demography is, and the explanatory language fertility researchers use, lead to differences in explanatory strategies that are rarely explicitly recognized. I also consider how critical theories challenge demographers to think in new ways. Despite the increasing attention paid to theory and explanation, I conclude that more engagement with the philosophy of social sciences is needed before fertility researchers can legitimately claim their studies do as much to explain and understand as to quantify and describe.

The Physical, Mental, and Social Health of Middle-Aged and Older Adults without Close Kin in Canada

OBJECTIVES

We examine whether adults 45+ lacking a partner and children are disadvantaged in terms of physical, mental, and social aspects of health. Then we test whether the importance of family structure for these outcomes varies by age, gender, and educational attainment.

METHODS

We examine aging and social network modules from the Canadian General Social Survey to estimate associations between family structure and physical, mental, and social health, with the last measured as communication with relatives and friends, civic participation, and loneliness.

RESULTS

Results show that middle-aged and older adults without partners have lower levels of physical and mental health and higher levels of loneliness than those with partners. Those without partners and children (the "kinless") interact less with relatives than those who have children but not partners, but more with friends, showing some substitution. In terms of civic participation, kinless middle-aged and older adults have significantly lower odds of this type of engagement than peers with close kin. Our interaction models find some differences by age, gender, and education, which vary by the outcome.

DISCUSSION

Our results highlight some concerns about the well-being of kinless adults in Canada, especially as related to physical and mental health and two aspects of social health, loneliness, and civic participation. We find some substitution occurring, whereby middle-aged and older adults without family are interacting more with friends than comparable peers, but such substitution is marginal.

Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Explaining cross-national differences in leaving home

There are large cross-national differences in the age of leaving home. The literature offers cultural, economic, and institutional explanations for these differences but has not examined all three explanations in one study. We examine these three explanations using data of the European Social Survey (ESS) from 2002 to 2016, supplemented with year-specific macro-level indicators from other data sources. We use a dynamic pseudo-panel design, allowing us to track the home-leaving behaviour of cohorts born between 1970 and 1999 in 22 European countries. Our findings show that the three sets of explanations are additive rather than competing, each explaining some of the cross-national differences in leaving home. The cultural context forms the most important explanation for the cross-national variation. In total, we explain 80% of cross-national variation in leaving home. Important predictors are religiosity, individualistic family values, change in youth unemployment, GDP and the net replacement rate.

A Sequence-Analysis Approach to the Study of the Transition to Adulthood in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

This study investigates whether young people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have experienced processes of destandardization of the life course similar to those observed in high-income societies. We provide two contributions to the relevant literature. First, we use data from 263 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 69 LMICs, offering the richest comparative account to date of women's transition to adulthood (TTA) patterns in the developing world. In so doing, we adopt sequence analysis and shift the focus from individual life-course events-namely first sexual intercourse, first union, and first birth-to a visually appealing approach that allows us to describe interrelations among events. By focusing on the analysis of trajectories rather than the occurrence of single events, the study provides an in-depth focus on the timing of events, time intervals between events, and how experiencing (or not) one event might have consequences for subsequent markers in the TTA in cross-national comparative perspective. Second, we identify clusters of TTA and explore their changes across cohorts by region and household location of residence (rural vs. urban). We document significant differences by macro-regions, yet relative stability across cohorts. We interpret the latter as suggestive of cultural specificities that make the TTA resistant to change and slow to converge across regions, if converging at all. Also, we find that much of the difference across cluster typologies ensues from variation related to when the transition begins (early vs. late), rather than from the duration between events, which tends to be uniformly quick across three out of four clusters.

Analysis of Non-Marital Fertility in Nigeria and Implications for Intervention and Future Research

Fertility and marriage are inextricably linked in sub-Saharan Africa, but recent changes, such as the rise in non-marital fertility, signals a weakening link, and the second demographic transition offers some explanations. Non-marital fertility comes with disadvantages, but it has not been adequately studied in Nigeria. Hence, this study examined the levels, patterns, and correlates of non-marital fertility, and offers implications for interventions and future research. Using data from the Nigeria Demographic and Survey 2008–2018, with a pooled weighted sample size of 11,925 unmarried women, percentage distribution was employed and a two-part model for count data was fitted, with the result showing that the level of non-marital fertility is 29%, and it is common among younger, rural dwelling, and uneducated unmarried women. The correlates of non-marital fertility include age, region of residence, level of education, religion, household wealth index, relationship status, ethnicity, work status, and age at sexual debut. Interventions to arrest rise of non-martial fertility due to its obvious disadvantages, should strengthen sexual and reproductive health programs for unmarried rural-dwelling young women, and revitalize welfare efforts for children born outside wedlock, for poor women, while future research should explore an in-depth understanding of non-marital births.

The changing relationship between socio-economic background and family formation in four European countries

Family formation, a process that includes union formation, fertility, and their timing and order, has become increasingly diverse and complex in Europe. We examine how the relationship between socio-economic background and family formation has changed over time in France, Italy, Romania, and Sweden, using first wave Generations and Gender Survey data. Competing Trajectories Analysis, a procedure which combines event-history analysis with sequence analysis, allows us to examine family formation as a process, capturing differences in both the timing of the start of family formation and the pathways that young adults follow. Regarding timing, socio-economic background differences in France and Sweden have remained relatively small, whereas in Italy and Romania higher parental education has become more strongly associated with postponement. Pathways tend to diverge by socio-economic background, particularly in Sweden and France. These results indicate that while family formation patterns have changed, they continue to be stratified by socio-economic background.

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.

METHODS

8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.

FINDINGS

The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Premarital Pregnancy in China: Cohort Trends and Educational Gradients

In China, premarital sexual and reproductive behavior is seldom considered and poorly understood. Increases in premarital pregnancy are thought to not only illuminate a decoupling of marriage and sexual/reproductive behavior but also serve as a key feature of family change in East Asia. This study assesses change across cohorts in the likelihood of premarital pregnancy and the extent to which change differs by educational attainment. Drawing on the 2017 China Fertility Survey, we apply a discrete-time, competing-risk survival analysis to a nationally representative sample of 221,990 women born between 1960 and 1999. Women born in the 1980s and 1990s are more likely than those born in the 1960s and 1970s to experience a pregnancy prior to first marriage. This cohort trend is driven by increases in premarital pregnancy among women with a high school education or less. The less educated women and their college counterparts increasingly diverge in the likelihood of experiencing a premarital pregnancy. The diverging patterns of premarital pregnancy underscore the urgency to shift the focus of China's family planning programs from fertility control to reproductive health, with an emphasis on providing information and services to disadvantaged unmarried individuals.

"I have no idea:" Uncertainty in high school seniors' marital expectations

Despite changes in marriage's role in young adulthood, youth in the United States report similar or higher expectations to marry than those from decades before, and very few report explicit expectations to not marry. Marital expectations may be one way to understand if the U.S. is indeed experiencing a second demographic transition, and uncertainty in those answers may provide additional information beyond simply yes and no. Using public-use data from 1976 to 2017 from the 12^th Grade Monitoring the Future annual cross-sectional surveys, I found that young men and women were more likely to report uncertainty than explicitly expect not to marry, and that boys were generally more uncertain than girls. Slight changes in past decades suggest that boys are becoming more certain regarding marriage, however, and gender differences have diminished over time. Additionally, between 2008 and 2017, I found that boys with the greatest educational prospects were the least likely to report uncertainty about marriage. Uncertainty is common in adolescent marital expectations and should be considered as a possibly informative answer to questions about hypothetical marriages. Results suggest that marriage continues to hold strong meaning in adolescents' ideals.

Self-perceived general health among community-dwelling Portuguese older adults: do men and women differ?

Evidence on how gender intersects with relevant social constructs in later phases of life is scarce. This investigation examined gender inequalities in perceived health status (self-perceived general health; SPGH) by Portuguese elderly community-dwellers while considering psycho-social and socio-demographic determinants. This study used data from a representative sample of community-dwellers aged ≥65 years (N = 920), who were enrolled in the Portuguese Elderly Nutritional Status Surveillance System (PEN-3S) project. Associations between SPGH and socio-demographic and psycho-social variables, functionality and self-reported morbidity were tested; indirect effects of relevant predictors on SPGH were also tested using a bootstrap method. Gender inequalities in health were found: women significantly rated their health worse than men; overall, participants rated their health as fair. Education, functional status, depression symptoms and self-reported morbidity significantly predicted SPGH among women, whereas only the latter two were associated with SPGH among men. For both genders, depression was the strongest predictor of SPGH. Mediation analyses detected indirect effects of cognitive function and loneliness feelings on SPGH among older adults. Results herein provide insights on the predictive role of psycho-social variables on SPGH and support the need for considering the context when addressing the correlates of SPGH among Portuguese older adults. Altogether, these findings might support cost-effective interventions targeting the most vulnerable groups of the population to inequalities in health and its predictors.

"A Bridge Over Troubled Water": Nurses' Leadership in Establishing Young Adults' Trust Upon the Transition to Adult Renal-Care - A Dual-Perspective Qualitative Study

PURPOSE

Patient trust is strongly related to adherence, but has not been tested in transitional care. Low adherence post-transitions of young adults from pediatrics to adult renal care jeopardizes transplanted kidneys and quality of life. We aimed at identifying barriers to trust of young adults in nurses and trust-building elements upon and post transition.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Following IRB approval, we recruited 21 young adults who underwent kidney transplants before the transition to adult renal care and eleven nurses from adult care in two Israeli tertiary hospitals that perform kidney transplants. We conducted 42 in-depth narrative interviews with young adults and one interview with each nurse. We used thematic analysis guided by Meleis's framework of effective transitions.

RESULTS

Most young adults' attributed negative meanings to the transition to adult care which did not enhance their well-being. Young adults were not provided with resources to promote their autonomy and role-sufficiency; despite preparation processes pre-transition, they were not aware of expectations from them. Their own unmet expectations of clinicians made them feel unsafe, objectified, and helpless and resulted in distrust in professionals, low adherence, and in some cases, dropping out of care and lower quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Nurses who focused on building a relationship with young adults rather than on operational tasks established trust and led young adults towards role-sufficiency, satisfaction with care, adherence, and optimized quality of life.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

The proposed recommendations for nurses and clinicians structure the trust-building process using elements to improve transitional care.

Kinlessness Around the World

OBJECTIVES

The first and second demographic transitions have led to profound changes in family networks. However, the timing and extent of these transitions vary widely across contexts. We examine how common it is for contemporary older adults to lack living kin and whether such individuals are uniformly disadvantaged around the world.

METHODS

Using surveys from 34 countries that together contain 69.6% of the world's population over age 50 and come from all regions of the world, we describe the prevalence and correlates of lacking immediate kin. We examine macro-level demographic indicators associated with the prevalence of kinlessness as well as micro-level associations between kinlessness and sociodemographic and health indicators.

RESULTS

There is great variation in levels of kinlessness, from over 10% with neither a spouse nor a biological child in Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Switzerland to levels below 2% in China and the Republic of Korea. There are strong macro-level relationships between kinlessness and lagged or contemporaneous fertility, mortality, and nuptiality measures and more marginal relationships with other demographic forces. Micro-level associations between kinlessness and respondent attributes are varied. The kinless are more likely to live alone than those with kin in all countries. In most countries, they have equivalent or worse self-rated health and lower education, although there are notable exceptions. There is substantial variation in the gender composition of the kinless population.

DISCUSSION

As demographic changes affecting kinlessness continue, we expect the scale of the kinless population to grow around the world.

Childlessness and low fertility in context: evidence from a multilevel analysis on 20 European countries

Low fertility and childlessness have been largely interpreted as being driven by the same mechanisms, although they may be qualitatively different phenomena. The present article discusses this assumption and studies determinants of childlessness by comparing them with determinants of low fertility. Drawing on micro-level data from the European Labour Force Survey (2005–2010) and macro-level data from external data sources, it enters the debate on the micro- and macro-determinants of fertility and childlessness by analysing women who live with or without children when they are 35–39 years old. By means of a series of multilevel models, it discusses the moderating role of the institutional and normative context in the link between individual characteristics and childlessness, and it analyses the extent to which micro- and macro-level determinants of childlessness differ from factors associated with low-fertility. The results indicate that the macro-level factors associated with individual childlessness are similar to those identified in the literature on low fertility. However, interesting differences emerge in how reconciliation and family support policies relate on childlessness and low-fertility across different groups of women. Overall, these findings highlight the importance to study childlessness as a phenomenon on its own, distinguishing its determinants from determinants of (low) fertility.

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

Background

The world population is expected to increase greatly this century, aggravating current problems related to climate, health, food security, biodiversity, energy and other vital resources. Population growth depends strongly on total fertility rate (TFR), but the relative importance of factors that influence fertility needs more study.

Methods

We analyze recent levels of fertility in relation to five factors: education (mean school years for females), economy (Gross Domestic Product, GDP, per capita), religiosity, contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), and strength of family planning programs. We compare six global regions: E Europe, W Europe and related countries, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Arab States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. In total, 141 countries are included in the analysis. We estimate the strength of relationships between TFR and the five factors by correlation or regression and present the results graphically.

Results

In decreasing order of strength, fertility (TFR) correlates negatively with education, CPR, and GDP per capita, and positively with religiosity. Europe deviates from other regions in several ways, e.g. TFR increases with education and decreases with religiosity in W Europe. TFR decreases with increasing strength of family planning programs in three regions, but only weakly so in a fourth, Sub-Saharan Africa (the two European regions lacked such programs). Most factors correlated with TFR are also correlated with each other. In particular, education correlates positively with GDP per capita but negatively with religiosity, which is also negatively related to contraception and GDP per capita.

Conclusions

These results help identify factors of likely importance for TFR in global regions and countries. More work is needed to establish causality and relative importance of the factors. Our novel quantitative analysis of TFR suggests that religiosity may counteract the ongoing decline of fertility in some regions and countries.