Matters of Size: Genetic Bottlenecks in Virus Infection and Their Potential Impact on Evolution

Barcoded SARS-CoV-2 viruses define the impact of time and route of transmission on the transmission bottleneck in a Syrian hamster model

The transmission bottleneck, defined as the number of viruses that transmit from one host to infect another, is an important determinant of the rate of virus evolution and the level of immunity required to protect against virus transmission. Despite its importance, SARS-CoV-2's transmission bottleneck remains poorly characterized, in part due to a lack of quantitative measurement tools. To address this, we adapted a SARS-CoV-2 reverse genetics system to generate a pool of >200 isogenic SARS-CoV-2 viruses harboring specific 6-nucleotide barcodes inserted in ORF10, a non-translated ORF. We directly inoculated donor Syrian hamsters intranasally with this barcoded virus pool and exposed a paired naïve contact hamster to each donor. Following exposure, the nasal turbinates, trachea, and lungs were collected, viral titers were measured, and the number of barcodes in each tissue were enumerated to quantify the transmission bottleneck. The duration and route (airborne, direct contact, and fomite) of exposure were varied to assess their impact on the transmission bottleneck. In airborne-exposed hamsters, the transmission bottleneck increased with longer exposure durations. We found that direct contact exposure produced the largest transmission bottleneck (average 27 BCs), followed by airborne exposure (average 16 BCs) then fomite exposure (average 8 BCs). Interestingly, we detected unique BCs in both the upper and lower respiratory tract of contact animals from all routes of exposure, suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 can directly infect hamster lungs. Altogether, these findings highlight the utility of barcoded viruses as tools to rigorously study virus transmission. In the future, barcoded SARS-CoV-2 will strengthen studies of immune factors that influence virus transmission.

Influenza A genomic diversity during human infections underscores the strength of genetic drift and the existence of tight transmission bottlenecks

Influenza infections result in considerable public health and economic impacts each year. One of the contributing factors to the high annual incidence of human influenza is the virus's ability to evade acquired immunity through continual antigenic evolution. Understanding the evolutionary forces that act within and between hosts is therefore critical to interpreting past trends in influenza virus evolution and in predicting future ones. Several studies have analyzed longitudinal patterns of influenza A virus genetic diversity in natural human infections to assess the relative contributions of selection and genetic drift on within-host evolution. However, in these natural infections, within-host viral populations harbor very few single-nucleotide variants, limiting our resolution in understanding the forces acting on these populations in vivo. Furthermore, low levels of within-host viral genetic diversity limit the ability to infer the extent of drift across transmission events. Here, we propose to use influenza virus genomic diversity as an alternative signal to better understand within- and between-host patterns of viral evolution. Specifically, we focus on the dynamics of defective viral genomes (DVGs), which harbor large internal deletions in one or more of influenza virus's eight gene segments. Our longitudinal analyses of DVGs show that influenza A virus populations are highly dynamic within hosts, corroborating previous findings based on viral genetic diversity that point toward the importance of genetic drift in driving within-host viral evolution. Furthermore, our analysis of DVG populations across transmission pairs indicates that DVGs rarely appeared to be shared, indicating the presence of tight transmission bottlenecks. Our analyses demonstrate that viral genomic diversity can be used to complement analyses based on viral genetic diversity to reveal processes that drive viral evolution within and between hosts.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and viral intra- and inter-host evolution in COVID-19 hospitalized patients

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) persistence in COVID-19 patients could play a key role in the emergence of variants of concern. The rapid intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 may result in an increased transmissibility, immune and therapeutic escape which could be a direct consequence of COVID-19 epidemic currents. In this context, a longitudinal retrospective study on eight consecutive COVID-19 patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection, from January 2022 to March 2023, was conducted. To characterize the intra- and inter-host viral evolution, whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed on nasopharyngeal samples collected at different time points. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed an accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intra-host evolution and emergence of antigenically divergent variants. The Bayesian inference and principal coordinate analysis analysis showed a host-based genomic structuring among antigenically divergent variants, that might reflect the positive effect of containment practices, within the critical hospital area. All longitudinal antigenically divergent isolates shared a wide range of amino acidic (aa) changes, particularly in the Spike (S) glycoprotein, that increased viral transmissibility (K417N, S477N, N501Y and Q498R), enhanced infectivity (R346T, S373P, R408S, T478K, Q498R, Y505H, D614G, H655Y, N679K and P681H), caused host immune escape (S371L, S375F, T376A, K417N, and K444T/R) and displayed partial or complete resistance to treatments (G339D, R346K/T, S371F/L, S375F, T376A, D405N, N440K, G446S, N460K, E484A, F486V, Q493R, G496S and Q498R). These results suggest that multiple novel variants which emerge in the patient during persistent infection, might spread to another individual and continue to evolve. A pro-active genomic surveillance of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infected patients is recommended to identify genetically divergent lineages before their diffusion.

The multi-dimensional challenges of controlling respiratory virus transmission in indoor spaces: Insights from the linkage of a microscopic pedestrian simulation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission model

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in indoor spaces, where most infection events occur, depends on the types and duration of human interactions, among others. Understanding how these human behaviours interface with virus characteristics to drive pathogen transmission and dictate the outcomes of non-pharmaceutical interventions is important for the informed and safe use of indoor spaces. To better understand these complex interactions, we developed the Pedestrian Dynamics-Virus Spread model (PeDViS), an individual-based model that combines pedestrian behaviour models with virus spread models incorporating direct and indirect transmission routes. We explored the relationships between virus exposure and the duration, distance, respiratory behaviour, and environment in which interactions between infected and uninfected individuals took place and compared this to benchmark 'at risk' interactions (1.5 metres for 15 minutes). When considering aerosol transmission, individuals adhering to distancing measures may be at risk due to the buildup of airborne virus in the environment when infected individuals spend prolonged time indoors. In our restaurant case, guests seated at tables near infected individuals were at limited risk of infection but could, particularly in poorly ventilated places, experience risks that surpass that of benchmark interactions. Combining interventions that target different transmission routes can aid in accumulating impact, for instance by combining ventilation with face masks. The impact of such combined interventions depends on the relative importance of transmission routes, which is hard to disentangle and highly context dependent. This uncertainty should be considered when assessing transmission risks upon different types of human interactions in indoor spaces. We illustrated the multi-dimensionality of indoor SARS-CoV-2 transmission that emerges from the interplay of human behaviour and the spread of respiratory viruses. A modelling strategy that incorporates this in risk assessments can help inform policy makers and citizens on the safe use of indoor spaces with varying inter-human interactions.

Reassortments in single-stranded DNA multipartite viruses: Confronting expectations based on molecular constraints with field observations

Single-stranded DNA multipartite viruses, which mostly consist of members of the genus Begomovirus, family Geminiviridae, and all members of the family Nanoviridae, partly resolve the cost of genomic integrity maintenance through two remarkable capacities. They are able to systemically infect a host even when their genomic segments are not together in the same host cell, and these segments can be separately transmitted by insect vectors from host to host. These capacities potentially allow such viruses to reassort at a much larger spatial scale, since reassortants could arise from parental genotypes that do not co-infect the same cell or even the same host. To assess the limitations affecting reassortment and their implications in genome integrity maintenance, the objective of this review is to identify putative molecular constraints influencing reassorted segments throughout the infection cycle and to confront expectations based on these constraints with empirical observations. Trans-replication of the reassorted segments emerges as the major constraint, while encapsidation, viral movement, and transmission compatibilities appear more permissive. Confronting the available molecular data and the resulting predictions on reassortments to field population surveys reveals notable discrepancies, particularly a surprising rarity of interspecific natural reassortments within the Nanoviridae family. These apparent discrepancies unveil important knowledge gaps in the biology of ssDNA multipartite viruses and call for further investigation on the role of reassortment in their biology.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from De Novo Viral Genetic Variation

Sequencing of viral infections has become increasingly common over the last decade. Deep sequencing data in particular have proven useful in characterizing the roles that genetic drift and natural selection play in shaping within-host viral populations. They have also been used to estimate transmission bottleneck sizes from identified donor-recipient pairs. These bottleneck sizes quantify the number of viral particles that establish genetic lineages in the recipient host and are important to estimate due to their impact on viral evolution. Current approaches for estimating bottleneck sizes exclusively consider the subset of viral sites that are observed as polymorphic in the donor individual. However, these approaches have the potential to substantially underestimate true transmission bottleneck sizes. Here, we present a new statistical approach for instead estimating bottleneck sizes using patterns of viral genetic variation that arise de novo within a recipient individual. Specifically, our approach makes use of the number of clonal viral variants observed in a transmission pair, defined as the number of viral sites that are monomorphic in both the donor and the recipient but carry different alleles. We first test our approach on a simulated dataset and then apply it to both influenza A virus sequence data and SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from identified transmission pairs. Our results confirm the existence of extremely tight transmission bottlenecks for these 2 respiratory viruses.

The genome formula of a multipartite virus is regulated both at the individual segment and the segment group levels

Differential accumulation of the distinct genome segments is a common feature of viruses with segmented genomes. The reproducible and specific pattern of genome segment accumulation within the host is referred to as the "genome formula". There is speculation and some experimental support for a functional role of the genome formula by modulating gene expression through copy number variations. However, the mechanisms of genome formula regulation have not yet been identified. In this study, we investigated whether the genome formula of the octopartite nanovirus faba bean necrotic stunt virus (FBNSV) is regulated by processes acting at the individual segment vs. viral population levels. We used a leaf infiltration system to show that the two most accumulated genome segments of the FBNSV possess a greater intrinsic accumulation capacity in Vicia faba tissues than the other segments. Nevertheless, processes acting at the individual segment level are insufficient to generate the genome formula, suggesting the involvement of additional mechanisms acting at the supra-segment level. Indeed, the absence of segments with important functions during systemic infection strongly modifies the relative frequency of the others, indicating that the genome formula is a property of the segment group. Together, these results demonstrate that the FBNSV genome formula is shaped by a complex process acting at both the individual segment and the segment group levels.

SARS-CoV-2 genomics and impact on clinical care for COVID-19

The emergence and worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the adaptation and rapid deployment of viral WGS and analysis techniques that had been previously applied on a more limited basis to other viral pathogens, such as HIV and influenza viruses. The need for WGS was driven in part by the low mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2, which necessitated measuring variation along the entire genome sequence to effectively differentiate lineages and characterize viral evolution. Several WGS approaches designed to maximize throughput and accuracy were quickly adopted by surveillance labs around the world. These broad-based SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing efforts revealed ongoing evolution of the virus, highlighted by the successive emergence of new viral variants throughout the course of the pandemic. These genomic insights were instrumental in characterizing the effects of viral mutations on transmissibility, immune escape and viral tropism, which in turn helped guide public health policy, the use of monoclonal antibody therapeutics and vaccine development strategies. As the use of direct-acting antivirals for the treatment of COVID-19 became more widespread, the potential for emergence of antiviral resistance has driven ongoing efforts to delineate resistance mutations and to monitor global sequence databases for their emergence. Given the critical role of viral genomics in the international effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, coordinated efforts should be made to expand global genomic surveillance capacity and infrastructure towards the anticipation and prevention of future pandemics.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low-frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is partially maintained among repeated serial samples from the same host, it can transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Transmission bottleneck size estimation from de novo viral genetic variation

Sequencing of viral infections has become increasingly common over the last decade. Deep sequencing data in particular have proven useful in characterizing the roles that genetic drift and natural selection play in shaping within-host viral populations. They have also been used to estimate transmission bottleneck sizes from identified donor-recipient pairs. These bottleneck sizes quantify the number of viral particles that establish genetic lineages in the recipient host and are important to estimate due to their impact on viral evolution. Current approaches for estimating bottleneck sizes exclusively consider the subset of viral sites that are observed as polymorphic in the donor individual. However, allele frequencies can change dramatically over the course of an individual's infection, such that sites that are polymorphic in the donor at the time of transmission may not be polymorphic in the donor at the time of sampling and allele frequencies at donor-polymorphic sites may change dramatically over the course of a recipient's infection. Because of this, transmission bottleneck sizes estimated using allele frequencies observed at a donor's polymorphic sites may be considerable underestimates of true bottleneck sizes. Here, we present a new statistical approach for instead estimating bottleneck sizes using patterns of viral genetic variation that arose de novo within a recipient individual. Specifically, our approach makes use of the number of clonal viral variants observed in a transmission pair, defined as the number of viral sites that are monomorphic in both the donor and the recipient but carry different alleles. We first test our approach on a simulated dataset and then apply it to both influenza A virus sequence data and SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from identified transmission pairs. Our results confirm the existence of extremely tight transmission bottlenecks for these two respiratory viruses, using an approach that does not tend to underestimate transmission bottleneck sizes.

Traceability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission through quasispecies analysis

During COVID-19 pandemic, consensus genomic sequences were used for rapidly monitor the spread of the virus worldwide. However, less attention was paid to intrahost genetic diversity. In fact, in the infected host, SARS-CoV-2 consists in an ensemble of replicating and closely related viral variants so-called quasispecies. Here we show that intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) represent a target for contact tracing analysis. Our data indicate that in the acute phase of infection, in highly likely transmission links, the number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another (bottleneck size) is large enough to propagate iSNVs among individuals. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks when the consensus sequences are identical, it is possible to reconstruct the transmission chains by genomic investigations of iSNVs. Specifically, we found that it is possible to identify transmission chains by limiting the analysis of iSNVs to only three well-conserved genes, namely nsp2, ORF3, and ORF7.

Expression of symptoms elicited by a hammerhead viroid through RNA silencing is related to population bottlenecks in the infected host

Chlorosis is frequently incited by viroids, small nonprotein-coding, circular RNAs replicating in nuclei (family Pospiviroidae) or chloroplasts (family Avsunviroidae). Here, we investigated how chrysanthemum chlorotic mottle viroid (CChMVd, Avsunviroidae) colonizes, evolves and initiates disease. Progeny variants of natural and mutated CChMVd sequence variants inoculated in chrysanthemum plants were characterized, and plant responses were assessed by molecular assays. We showed that: chlorotic mottle induced by CChMVd reflects the spatial distribution and evolutionary behaviour in the infected host of pathogenic (containing a UUUC tetranucleotide) and nonpathogenic (lacking such a pathogenic determinant) variants; and RNA silencing is involved in the initiation of the chlorosis in symptomatic leaf sectors through a viroid-derived small RNA containing the pathogenic determinant that directs AGO1-mediated cleavage of the mRNA encoding the chloroplastic transketolase. This study provides the first evidence that colonization of leaf tissues by CChMVd is characterized by segregating variant populations differing in pathogenicity and with the ability to colonize leaf sectors (bottlenecks) and exclude other variants (superinfection exclusion). Importantly, no specific pathogenic viroid variants were found in the chlorotic spots caused by chrysanthemum stunt viroid (Pospiviroidae), thus establishing a clear distinction on how members of the two viroid families trigger chlorosis in the same host.

Cheating leads to the evolution of multipartite viruses

In multipartite viruses, the genome is split into multiple segments, each of which is transmitted via a separate capsid. The existence of multipartite viruses poses a problem, because replication is only possible when all segments are present within the same host. Given this clear cost, why is multipartitism so common in viruses? Most previous hypotheses try to explain how multipartitism could provide an advantage. In so doing, they require scenarios that are unrealistic and that cannot explain viruses with more than 2 multipartite segments. We show theoretically that selection for cheats, which avoid producing a shared gene product, but still benefit from gene products produced by other genomes, can drive the evolution of both multipartite and segmented viruses. We find that multipartitism can evolve via cheating under realistic conditions and does not require unreasonably high coinfection rates or any group-level benefit. Furthermore, the cheating hypothesis is consistent with empirical patterns of cheating and multipartitism across viruses. More broadly, our results show how evolutionary conflict can drive new patterns of genome organisation in viruses and elsewhere.

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of deaths and substantial morbidity worldwide. Intense scientific effort to understand the biology of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in daunting numbers of genomic sequences. We witnessed evolutionary events that could mostly be inferred indirectly before, such as the emergence of variants with distinct phenotypes, for example transmissibility, severity and immune evasion. This Review explores the mechanisms that generate genetic variation in SARS-CoV-2, underlying the within-host and population-level processes that underpin these events. We examine the selective forces that likely drove the evolution of higher transmissibility and, in some cases, higher severity during the first year of the pandemic and the role of antigenic evolution during the second and third years, together with the implications of immune escape and reinfections, and the increasing evidence for and potential relevance of recombination. In order to understand how major lineages, such as variants of concern (VOCs), are generated, we contrast the evidence for the chronic infection model underlying the emergence of VOCs with the possibility of an animal reservoir playing a role in SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and conclude that the former is more likely. We evaluate uncertainties and outline scenarios for the possible future evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.

Developing an appropriate evolutionary baseline model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 patient samples

Over the past 3 years, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread through human populations in several waves, resulting in a global health crisis. In response, genomic surveillance efforts have proliferated in the hopes of tracking and anticipating the evolution of this virus, resulting in millions of patient isolates now being available in public databases. Yet, while there is a tremendous focus on identifying newly emerging adaptive viral variants, this quantification is far from trivial. Specifically, multiple co-occurring and interacting evolutionary processes are constantly in operation and must be jointly considered and modeled in order to perform accurate inference. We here outline critical individual components of such an evolutionary baseline model-mutation rates, recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge pertaining to the related parameters of each in SARS-CoV-2. We close with a series of recommendations for future clinical sampling, model construction, and statistical analysis.

Detecting punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-2 over the first year of the pandemic

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolved slowly over the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic with differential mutation rates across lineages. Here, we explore how this variation arose. Whether evolutionary change accumulated gradually within lineages or during viral lineage branching is unclear. Using phylogenetic regression models, we show that ~13% of SARS-CoV-2 genomic divergence up to May 2020 is attributable to lineage branching events (punctuated evolution). The net number of branching events along lineages predicts ~5% of the deviation from the strict molecular clock. We did not detect punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-1, possibly due to the small sample size, and in sarbecovirus broadly, likely due to a different evolutionary process altogether. Punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 is probably neutral because most mutations were not positively selected and because the strength of the punctuational effect remained constant over time, at least until May 2020, and across continents. However, the small punctuational contribution to SARS-CoV-2 diversity is consistent with the founder effect arising from narrow transmission bottlenecks. Therefore, punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 may represent the macroevolutionary consequence (rate variation) of a microevolutionary process (transmission bottleneck).

A Screening for Virus Infections among Wild Eurasian Tundra Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Iceland, 2017-2019

A winter population of around 4000-5000 wild Eurasian tundra reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) in the eastern part of Iceland represents descendants from 35 semi-domesticated reindeer imported to Iceland from Finnmark county, Norway, in 1787. While previous studies have indicated that they host fewer parasite species as compared to reindeer in Fennoscandia, little information exists on their exposure to reindeer viral pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate blood from hunted reindeer for antibodies against alphaherpesvirus and gammaherpesviruses (malignant catarrhal fever viruses, MCFV), pestivirus, bluetongue virus, and Schmallenberg virus, and to investigate nasal and oral mucosal membrane swab samples for the presence of parapoxvirus-specific DNA. Blood samples collected during the hunting seasons in 2017 (n = 40), 2018 (n = 103), and 2019 (n = 138) were tested for viral antibodies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Screening for parapoxvirus DNA was conducted on swab samples from 181 reindeer by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), targeting the B2L and GIF genes. Antibodies against pestivirus were detected in two animals from 2017, and antibodies against MCFV were detected in two reindeer from 2018. No antibodies were detected against the other viruses tested. Parapoxvirus-specific DNA was detected in nasal swab samples from two animals sampled in 2019. This study suggests that the investigated viral infections are either not present or present at a low prevalence only, probably not representing a major health threat to this reindeer population. The lack of exposure to alphaherpesvirus, an enzootic pathogen in most investigated Rangifer populations, was unexpected.

Rapid transmission and tight bottlenecks constrain the evolution of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants

Transmission bottlenecks limit the spread of novel mutations and reduce the efficiency of selection along a transmission chain. While increased force of infection, receptor binding, or immune evasion may influence bottleneck size, the relationship between transmissibility and the transmission bottleneck is unclear. Here we compare the transmission bottleneck of non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 lineages to those of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. We sequenced viruses from 168 individuals in 65 households. Most virus populations had 0-1 single nucleotide variants (iSNV). From 64 transmission pairs with detectable iSNV, we identify a per clade bottleneck of 1 (95% CI 1-1) for Alpha, Delta, and Omicron and 2 (95% CI 2-2) for non-VOC. These tight bottlenecks reflect the low diversity at the time of transmission, which may be more pronounced in rapidly transmissible variants. Tight bottlenecks will limit the development of highly mutated VOC in transmission chains, adding to the evidence that selection over prolonged infections may drive their evolution.

Plant Virus Adaptation to New Hosts: A Multi-scale Approach

Viruses are studied at each level of biological complexity: from within-cells to ecosystems. The same basic evolutionary forces and principles operate at each level: mutation and recombination, selection, genetic drift, migration, and adaptive trade-offs. Great efforts have been put into understanding each level in great detail, hoping to predict the dynamics of viral population, prevent virus emergence, and manage their spread and virulence. Unfortunately, we are still far from this. To achieve these ambitious goals, we advocate for an integrative perspective of virus evolution. Focusing in plant viruses, we illustrate the pervasiveness of the above-mentioned principles. Beginning at the within-cell level, we describe replication modes, infection bottlenecks, and cellular contagion rates. Next, we move up to the colonization of distal tissues, discussing the fundamental role of random events. Then, we jump beyond the individual host and discuss the link between transmission mode and virulence. Finally, at the community level, we discuss properties of virus-plant infection networks. To close this review we propose the multilayer network theory, in which elements at different layers are connected and submit to their own dynamics that feed across layers, resulting in new emerging properties, as a way to integrate information from the different levels.

Evaluating the potential of whole-genome sequencing for tracing transmission routes in experimental infections and natural outbreaks of bovine respiratory syncytial virus

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is a major cause of respiratory disease in cattle. Genomic sequencing can resolve phylogenetic relationships between virus populations, which can be used to infer transmission routes and potentially inform the design of biosecurity measures. Sequencing of short (<2000 nt) segments of the 15 000-nt BRSV genome has revealed geographic and temporal clustering of BRSV populations, but insufficient variation to distinguish viruses collected from herds infected close together in space and time. This study investigated the potential for whole-genome sequencing to reveal sufficient genomic variation for inferring transmission routes between herds. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were generated from experimental infections and from natural outbreaks in Jämtland and Uppsala counties in Sweden. Sufficient depth of coverage for analysis of consensus and sub-consensus sequence diversity was obtained from 47 to 20 samples respectively. Few (range: 0-6 polymorphisms across the six experiments) consensus-level polymorphisms were observed along experimental transmissions. A much higher level of diversity (146 polymorphic sites) was found among the consensus sequences from the outbreak samples. The majority (144/146) of polymorphisms were between rather than within counties, suggesting that consensus whole-genome sequences show insufficient spatial resolution for inferring direct transmission routes, but might allow identification of outbreak sources at the regional scale. By contrast, within-sample diversity was generally higher in the experimental than the outbreak samples. Analyses to infer known (experimental) and suspected (outbreak) transmission links from within-sample diversity data were uninformative. In conclusion, analysis of the whole-genome sequence of BRSV from experimental samples discriminated between circulating isolates from distant areas, but insufficient diversity was observed between closely related isolates to aid local transmission route inference.

Influenza A virus reassortment in mammals gives rise to genetically distinct within-host subpopulations

Influenza A virus (IAV) genetic exchange through reassortment has the potential to accelerate viral evolution and has played a critical role in the generation of multiple pandemic strains. For reassortment to occur, distinct viruses must co-infect the same cell. The spatio-temporal dynamics of viral dissemination within an infected host therefore define opportunity for reassortment. Here, we used wild type and synonymously barcoded variant viruses of a pandemic H1N1 strain to examine the within-host viral dynamics that govern reassortment in guinea pigs, ferrets and swine. The first two species are well-established models of human influenza, while swine are a natural host and a frequent conduit for cross-species transmission and reassortment. Our results show reassortment to be pervasive in all three hosts but less frequent in swine than in ferrets and guinea pigs. In ferrets, tissue-specific differences in the opportunity for reassortment are also evident, with more reassortants detected in the nasal tract than the lower respiratory tract. While temporal trends in viral diversity are limited, spatial patterns are clear, with heterogeneity in the viral genotypes detected at distinct anatomical sites revealing extensive compartmentalization of reassortment and replication. Our data indicate that the dynamics of viral replication in mammals allow diversification through reassortment but that the spatial compartmentalization of variants likely shapes their evolution and onward transmission.

Deciphering the Tissue Tropism of the RNA Viromes Harbored by Field-Collected Anopheles sinensis and Culex quinquefasciatus

Arboviruses and insect-specific viruses (ISVs) are two major types of viruses harbored by mosquitoes that are distinguished by the involvement of vertebrate hosts in their transmission cycles. While intensive studies have focused on the transmission, tissue tropism, and evolution of arboviruses, these characteristics are poorly investigated in ISVs, which dominate the mosquito virome. Therefore, in this study, we collected two mosquito species, Anopheles sinensis and Culex quinquefasciatus, in the field and used a metatranscriptomics approach to characterize their RNA viromes in different tissues, such as the midgut, legs, salivary gland, eggs, and the remainder of the carcass. Blood-engorged individuals of these species were captured in 3 locations, and 60 mosquitoes were pooled from each species and location. A total of 40 viral species from diverse viral taxa associated with all viral RNA genome types were identified, among which 19 were newly identified in this study. According to the current viral taxonomy, some of these viruses, such as Yancheng Anopheles associated virus 2 (Narnaviridae) and Jiangsu Anopheles-related virus (Ghabrivirales), were novel. The two investigated mosquito species generally harbored distinct viromes. Nevertheless, the viruses were generally shared among different tissue types to various degrees. Specifically, the eggs possessed a viral community with significantly lower diversity and abundance than those in other tissues, whereas the legs and salivary glands exhibited higher viral abundance. The compositions and distributions of the viromes of different mosquito tissues were demonstrated for the first time in our study, providing important insight into the virome dynamics within individual mosquitoes. IMPORTANCE ISVs are considered to be ancestral to arboviruses. Because of their medical importance, arboviruses have been well studied from the aspects of their transmission mode, evolution of dual-host tropism, and genetic dynamics within mosquito vectors. However, the mode of ISV maintenance is poorly understood, even though many novel ISVs have been identified with the emergence of sequencing technology. In our study, in addition to the identification of a diverse virus community, the tissue tropism of RNA viromes harbored by two field-collected mosquito species was demonstrated for the first time. According to the results, the virus communities of different tissues, such as the salivary glands, midguts, legs, and eggs, can help us understand the evolution, transmission routes, and maintenance modes of mosquito-specific viruses in nature.

Rapid transmission and tight bottlenecks constrain the evolution of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants

Transmission bottlenecks limit the spread of novel mutations and reduce the efficiency of natural selection along a transmission chain. Many viruses exhibit tight bottlenecks, and studies of early SARS-CoV-2 lineages identified a bottleneck of 1-3 infectious virions. While increased force of infection, host receptor binding, or immune evasion may influence bottleneck size, the relationship between transmissibility and the transmission bottleneck is unclear. Here, we compare the transmission bottleneck of non-variant-of-concern (non-VOC) SARS-CoV-2 lineages to those of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. We sequenced viruses from 168 individuals in 65 multiply infected households in duplicate to high depth of coverage. In 110 specimens collected close to the time of transmission, within-host diversity was extremely low. At a 2% frequency threshold, 51% had no intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNV), and 42% had 1-2 iSNV. In 64 possible transmission pairs with detectable iSNV, we identified a bottleneck of 1 infectious virion (95% CI 1-1) for Alpha, Delta, and Omicron lineages and 2 (95% CI 2-2) in non-VOC lineages. The latter was driven by a single iSNV shared in one non-VOC household. The tight transmission bottleneck in SARS-CoV-2 is due to low genetic diversity at the time of transmission, a relationship that may be more pronounced in rapidly transmissible variants. The tight bottlenecks identified here will limit the development of highly mutated VOC in typical transmission chains, adding to the evidence that selection over prolonged infections in immunocompromised patients may drive their evolution.

Multiple Levels of Triggered Factors and the Obligated Requirement of Cell-to-Cell Movement in the Mutation Repair of Cucumber Mosaic Virus with Defects in the tRNA-like Structure

Simple Summary

Based on analysis of the tRNA-like structure (TLS) mutation in cucumber mosaic virus (CMV), mutation repair is correlated with several levels of triggered factors, including the dose of inoculation of virus mutants, the quantity effect on corresponding viral RNA, and the quality effect on corresponding viral RNA. All types of TLS mutation in different RNAs of CMV can be repaired at a low dose around the dilution end-point. At a high dose of inoculation, TLS mutations in RNA2 and RNA3, but not RNA1, can be repaired, which correlates with the relative quantity defect of RNA2 or the genome size defect of RNA3. In addition, all the above types of mutation repair necessarily require cell-to-cell movement, which presents the obligated effect of cell-to-cell movement on mutation repair.

Abstract

Some debilitating mutations in RNA viruses are repairable; however, the triggering factors of mutation repair remain largely unknown. In this study, multiple triggering factors of mutation repair are identified based on genetic damage to the TLS in CMV. TLS mutations in different RNAs distinctively impact viral pathogenicity and present different types of mutation repair. RNA2 relative reduction level or RNA3 sequence change resulting from TLS mutation is correlated with a high rate of mutation repair, and the TLS mutation of RNA1 fails to be repaired at the high inoculum dose. However, the TLS mutation of RNA1 can be repaired at a low dose of inoculation, particularly around the dilution end-point or in the mixed inoculation with RNA2 having a pre-termination mutation of the 2b gene, an RNAi suppressor. Taken together, TLS mutations resulting in quality or quantity defects of the viral genome or TLS mutations at low doses around the dilution end-point are likely to be repaired. Different levels of TLS mutation repair necessarily require cell-to-cell movement, therefore implying its obligated effect on the evolution of low-fitness viruses and providing a new insight into Muller’s ratchet. This study provides important information on virus evolution and the application of mild viral vaccines.

Narrow transmission bottlenecks and limited within-host viral diversity during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on a fishing boat

The long-term evolution of viruses is ultimately due to viral mutants that arise within infected individuals and transmit to other individuals. Here, we use deep sequencing to investigate the transmission of viral genetic variation among individuals during a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak that infected the vast majority of crew members on a fishing boat. We deep-sequenced nasal swabs to characterize the within-host viral population of infected crew members, using experimental duplicates and strict computational filters to ensure accurate variant calling. We find that within-host viral diversity is low in infected crew members. The mutations that did fix in some crew members during the outbreak are not observed at detectable frequencies in any of the sampled crew members in which they are not fixed, suggesting that viral evolution involves occasional fixation of low-frequency mutations during transmission rather than persistent maintenance of within-host viral diversity. Overall, our results show that strong transmission bottlenecks dominate viral evolution even during a superspreading event with a very high attack rate.

Empirical estimates of the mutation rate for an alphabaculovirus

Mutation rates are of key importance for understanding evolutionary processes and predicting their outcomes. Empirical mutation rate estimates are available for a number of RNA viruses, but few are available for DNA viruses, which tend to have larger genomes. Whilst some viruses have very high mutation rates, lower mutation rates are expected for viruses with large genomes to ensure genome integrity. Alphabaculoviruses are insect viruses with large genomes and often have high levels of polymorphism, suggesting high mutation rates despite evidence of proofreading activity by the replication machinery. Here, we report an empirical estimate of the mutation rate per base per strand copying (s/n/r) of Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV). To avoid biases due to selection, we analyzed mutations that occurred in a stable, non-functional genomic insert after five serial passages in Spodoptera exigua larvae. Our results highlight that viral demography and the stringency of mutation calling affect mutation rate estimates, and that using a population genetic simulation model to make inferences can mitigate the impact of these processes on estimates of mutation rate. We estimated a mutation rate of μ = 1×10⁻⁷ s/n/r when applying the most stringent criteria for mutation calling, and estimates of up to μ = 5×10⁻⁷ s/n/r when relaxing these criteria. The rates at which different classes of mutations accumulate provide good evidence for neutrality of mutations occurring within the inserted region. We therefore present a robust approach for mutation rate estimation for viruses with stable genomes, and strong evidence of a much lower alphabaculovirus mutation rate than supposed based on the high levels of polymorphism observed.

Virus populations can evolve rapidly, driven by the large number of mutations that occur during virus replication. It is challenging to measure mutation rates because selection will affect which mutations are observed: beneficial mutations are overrepresented in virus populations, while deleterious mutations are selected against and therefore underrepresented. Few mutation rates have been estimated for viruses with large DNA genomes, and there are no estimates for any insect virus. Here, we estimate the mutation rate for an alphabaculovirus, a virus that infects caterpillars and has a large, 134 kilobase pair DNA genome. To ensure that selection did not bias our estimate of mutation rate, we studied which mutations occurred in a large artificial region inserted into the virus genome, where mutations did not affect viral fitness. We deep sequenced evolved virus populations, and compared the distribution of observed mutants to predictions from a simulation model to estimate mutation rate. We found evidence for a relatively low mutation rate, of one mutation in every 10 million bases replicated. This estimate is in line with expectations for a DNA virus with self-correcting replication machinery and a large genome.

Coocclusion of Helicoverpa armigera Single Nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearSNPV) and Helicoverpa armigera Multiple Nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearMNPV): Pathogenicity and Stability in Homologous and Heterologous Hosts

Helicoverpa armigera single nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearSNPV) is a virulent pathogen of lepidopterans in the genera Heliothis and Helicoverpa, whereas Helicoverpa armigera multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearSNPV) is a different virus species with a broader host range. This study aimed to examine the consequences of coocclusion of HearSNPV and HearMNPV on the pathogenicity, stability and host range of mixed-virus occlusion bodies (OBs). HearSNPV OBs were approximately 6-fold more pathogenic than HearMNPV OBs, showed faster killing by approximately 13 h, and were approximately 45% more productive in terms of OB production per larva. For coocclusion, H. armigera larvae were first inoculated with HearMNPV OBs and subsequently inoculated with HearSNPV OBs at intervals of 0–72 h after the initial inoculation. When the interval between inoculations was 12–24 h, OBs collected from virus-killed insects were found to comprise 41–57% of HearSNPV genomes, but the prevalence of HearSNPV genomes was greatly reduced (3–4%) at later time points. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) analysis revealed the presence of HearSNPV genomes in a small fraction of multinucleocapsid ODVs representing 0.47–0.88% of the genomes quantified in ODV samples, indicating that both viruses had replicated in coinfected host cells. End-point dilution assays on ODVs from cooccluded mixed-virus OBs confirmed the presence of both viruses in 41.9–55.6% of wells that were predicted to have been infected by a single ODV. A control experiment indicated that this result was unlikely to be due to the adhesion of HearSNPV ODVs to HearMNPV ODVs or accidental contamination during ODV band extraction. Therefore, the disparity between the qPCR and end-point dilution estimates of the prevalence of mixed-virus ODVs likely reflected virus-specific differences in replication efficiency in cell culture and the higher infectivity of pseudotyped ODVs that were produced in coinfected parental cells. Bioassays on H. armigera, Spodoptera frugiperda and Mamestra brassicae larvae revealed that mixed-virus OBs were capable of infecting heterologous hosts, but relative potency values largely reflected the proportion of HearMNPV present in each mixed-virus preparation. The cooccluded mixtures were unstable in serial passage; HearSNPV rapidly dominated during passage in H. armigera whereas HearMNPV rapidly dominated during passage in the heterologous hosts. We conclude that mixed-virus coocclusion technology may be useful for producing precise mixtures of viruses with host range properties suitable for the control of complexes of lepidopteran pests in particular crops, although this requires validation by field testing.

Narrow transmission bottlenecks and limited within-host viral diversity during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on a fishing boat.. [PMID: 35169803 PMCID: PMC8845427 DOI: 10.1101/2022.02.09.479546]

The long-term evolution of viruses is ultimately due to viral mutants that arise within infected individuals and transmit to other individuals. Here we use deep sequencing to investigate the transmission of viral genetic variation among individuals during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak that infected the vast majority of crew members on a fishing boat. We deep-sequenced nasal swabs to characterize the within-host viral population of infected crew members, using experimental duplicates and strict computational filters to ensure accurate variant calling. We find that within-host viral diversity is low in infected crew members. The mutations that did fix in some crew members during the outbreak are not observed at detectable frequencies in any of the sampled crew members in which they are not fixed, suggesting viral evolution involves occasional fixation of low-frequency mutations during transmission rather than persistent maintenance of within-host viral diversity. Overall, our results show that strong transmission bottlenecks dominate viral evolution even during a superspreading event with a very high attack rate.

Nucleopolyhedrovirus Coocclusion Technology: A New Concept in the Development of Biological Insecticides

Nucleopolyhedroviruses (NPV, Baculoviridae) that infect lepidopteran pests have an established record as safe and effective biological insecticides. Here, we describe a new approach for the development of NPV-based insecticides. This technology takes advantage of the unique way in which these viruses are transmitted as collective infectious units, and the genotypic diversity present in natural virus populations. A ten-step procedure is described involving genotypic variant selection, mixing, coinfection and intraspecific coocclusion of variants within viral occlusion bodies. Using two examples, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to produce highly pathogenic virus preparations for pest control. As restricted host range limits the uptake of NPV-based insecticides, this technology has recently been adapted to produce custom-designed interspecific mixtures of viruses that can be applied to control complexes of lepidopteran pests on particular crops, as long as a shared host species is available for virus production. This approach to the development of NPV-based insecticides has the potential to be applied across a broad range of NPV-pest pathosystems.

Opposite Outcomes of the Within-Host Competition between High- and Low-Pathogenic H5N8 Avian Influenza Viruses in Chickens Compared to Ducks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) emerge from low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV) through the introduction of basic amino acids at the hemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site. Following viral evolution, the newly formed HPAIV likely represents a minority variant within the index host, predominantly infected with the LPAIV precursor. Using reverse genetics-engineered H5N8 viruses differing solely at the HA cleavage, we tested the hypothesis that the interaction between the minority HPAIV and the majority LPAIV could modulate the risk of HPAIV emergence and that the nature of the interaction could depend on the host species. In chickens, we observed that the H5N8LP increased H5N8HP replication and pathogenesis. In contrast, the H5N8LP antagonized H5N8HP replication and pathogenesis in ducks. Ducks mounted a more potent antiviral innate immune response than chickens against the H5N8LP, which correlated with H5N8HP inhibition. These data provide experimental evidence that HPAIV may be more likely to emerge in chickens than in ducks and underscore the importance of within-host viral variant interactions in viral evolution. IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses represent a threat to poultry production systems and to human health because of their impact on food security and because of their zoonotic potential. It is therefore crucial to better understand how these viruses emerge. Using a within-host competition model between high- and low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, we provide evidence that highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses could be more likely to emerge in chickens than in ducks. These results have important implications for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus emergence prevention, and they underscore the importance of within-host viral variant interactions in virus evolution.

OUP accepted manuscript

A detailed understanding of how and when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission occurs is crucial for designing effective prevention measures. Other than contact tracing, genome sequencing provides information to help infer who infected whom. However, the effectiveness of the genomic approach in this context depends on both (high enough) mutation and (low enough) transmission rates. Today, the level of resolution that we can obtain when describing SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks using just genomic information alone remains unclear. In order to answer this question, we sequenced forty-nine SARS-CoV-2 patient samples from ten local clusters in NW Spain for which partial epidemiological information was available and inferred transmission history using genomic variants. Importantly, we obtained high-quality genomic data, sequencing each sample twice and using unique barcodes to exclude cross-sample contamination. Phylogenetic and cluster analyses showed that consensus genomes were generally sufficient to discriminate among independent transmission clusters. However, levels of intrahost variation were low, which prevented in most cases the unambiguous identification of direct transmission events. After filtering out recurrent variants across clusters, the genomic data were generally compatible with the epidemiological information but did not support specific transmission events over possible alternatives. We estimated the effective transmission bottleneck size to be one to two viral particles for sample pairs whose donor–recipient relationship was likely. Our analyses suggest that intrahost genomic variation in SARS-CoV-2 might be generally limited and that homoplasy and recurrent errors complicate identifying shared intrahost variants. Reliable reconstruction of direct SARS-CoV-2 transmission based solely on genomic data seems hindered by a slow mutation rate, potential convergent events, and technical artifacts. Detailed contact tracing seems essential in most cases to study SARS-CoV-2 transmission at high resolution.

Natural rodent model of viral transmission reveals biological features of virus population dynamics

Emerging viruses threaten global health, but few experimental models can characterize the virus and host factors necessary for within- and cross-species transmission. Here, we leverage a model whereby pet store mice or rats-which harbor natural rodent pathogens-are cohoused with laboratory mice. This "dirty" mouse model offers a platform for studying acute transmission of viruses between and within hosts via natural mechanisms. We identified numerous viruses and other microbial species that transmit to cohoused mice, including prospective new members of the Coronaviridae, Astroviridae, Picornaviridae, and Narnaviridae families, and uncovered pathogen interactions that promote or prevent virus transmission. We also evaluated transmission dynamics of murine astroviruses during transmission and spread within a new host. Finally, by cohousing our laboratory mice with the bedding of pet store rats, we identified cross-species transmission of a rat astrovirus. Overall, this model system allows for the analysis of transmission of natural rodent viruses and is a platform to further characterize barriers to zoonosis.

The evolution of cheating in viruses

The success of many viruses depends upon cooperative interactions between viral genomes. However, whenever cooperation occurs, there is the potential for 'cheats' to exploit that cooperation. We suggest that: (1) the biology of viruses makes viral cooperation particularly susceptible to cheating; (2) cheats are common across a wide range of viruses, including viral entities that are already well studied, such as defective interfering genomes, and satellite viruses. Consequently, the evolutionary theory of cheating could help us understand and manipulate viral dynamics, while viruses also offer new opportunities to study the evolution of cheating.

Coalescent models derived from birth-death processes

A coalescent model of a sample of size n is derived from a birth-death process that originates at a random time in the past from a single founder individual. Over time, the descendants of the founder evolve into a population of large (infinite) size from which a sample of size n is taken. The parameters and time of the birth-death process are scaled in N₀, the size of the present-day population, while letting N₀→∞, similarly to how the standard Kingman coalescent process arises from the Wright-Fisher model. The model is named the Limit Birth-Death (LBD) coalescent model. Simulations from the LBD coalescent model with sample size n are computationally slow compared to standard coalescent models. Therefore, we suggest different approximations to the LBD coalescent model assuming the population size is a deterministic function of time rather than a stochastic process. Furthermore, we introduce a hybrid LBD coalescent model, that combines the exactness of the LBD coalescent model model with the speed of the approximations.

The Curious Strategy of Multipartite Viruses

Multipartite virus genomes are composed of several segments, each packaged in a distinct viral particle. Although this puzzling genome architecture is found in ∼17% of known viral species, its distribution among hosts or among distinct types of genome-composing nucleic acid remains poorly understood. No convincing advantage of multipartitism has been identified, yet the maintenance of genomic integrity appears problematic. Here we review recent studies shedding light on these issues. Multipartite viruses rapidly modify the copy number of each segment/gene from one host species to another, a putative benefit if host switches are common. One multipartite virus functions in a multicellular way: The segments do not all need to be present in the same cell and can functionally complement across cells, maintaining genome integrity within hosts. The genomic integrity maintenance during host-to-host transmission needs further elucidation. These features challenge several virology foundations and could apply to other multicomponent viral systems.

The Social Life of Viruses

Despite their simplicity, viruses exhibit certain types of social interactions. Situations in which a given virus achieves higher fitness in combination with other members of the viral population have been described at the level of transmission, replication, suppression of host immune responses, and host killing, enabling the evolution of viral cooperation. Although cellular coinfection with multiple viral particles is the typical playground for these interactions, cooperation between viruses infecting different cells is also established through cellular and viral-encoded communication systems. In general, the stability of cooperation is compromised by cheater genotypes, as best exemplified by defective interfering particles. As predicted by social evolution theory, cheater invasion can be avoided when cooperators interact preferentially with other cooperators, a situation that is promoted in spatially structured populations. Processes such as transmission bottlenecks, organ compartmentalization, localized spread of infection foci, superinfection exclusion, and even discrete intracellular replication centers promote multilevel spatial structuring in viruses. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 8 is September 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Why are viral genomes so fragile? The bottleneck hypothesis

If they undergo new mutations at each replication cycle, why are RNA viral genomes so fragile, with most mutations being either strongly deleterious or lethal? Here we provide theoretical and numerical evidence for the hypothesis that genetic fragility is partly an evolutionary response to the multiple population bottlenecks experienced by viral populations at various stages of their life cycles. Modelling within-host viral populations as multi-type branching processes, we show that mutational fragility lowers the rate at which Muller’s ratchet clicks and increases the survival probability through multiple bottlenecks. In the context of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model, we find that the attack rate of fragile viral strains can exceed that of more robust strains, particularly at low infectivities and high mutation rates. Our findings highlight the importance of demographic events such as transmission bottlenecks in shaping the genetic architecture of viral pathogens.

Given that most mutations are deleterious, high mutation rates carry a significant evolutionary cost. To reduce this burden, an obvious evolutionary solution would be to reduce the fitness cost of mutations by becoming more robust; this solution is indeed selected in populations of constantly large size. Here, we show that when populations regularly experience bottlenecks, as viruses do upon transmission to a new host, a less obvious solution becomes more viable: namely, to increase the fitness cost of mutations so that unfit mutants are less likely to fix at each passage. This could explain why viruses—especially RNA viruses—do in fact have very fragile genomes.

Retrospective Characterization of the 2006-2007 Swine Vesicular Disease Epidemic in Northern Italy by Whole Genome Sequence Analysis

Advances in the epidemiological tracing of pathogen transmission have been largely driven by the increasing characterisation of whole-genome sequence data obtained at a finer resolution from infectious disease outbreaks. Dynamic models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data further enhance inference on the evolutionary history and transmission dynamics of epidemic outbreaks by reconstructing the network of ‘who-infected-whom’. Swine Vesicular Disease (SVD) was present in Italy from 1966 until 2015, and since the mid-1990s, it has mainly been circulating within Italy’s central-southern regions with sporadic incursions to the north of the country. However, a recrudescence of SVD in northern Italy was recorded between November 2006 and October 2007, leading to a large-scale epidemic that significantly affected the intensive pig industry of the Lombardy region. In this study, by using whole-genome sequence data in combination with epidemiological information on disease occurrences, we report a retrospective epidemiological investigation of the 2006–2007 SVD epidemic, providing new insights into the transmission dynamics and evolutionary mode of the two phases that characterised the epidemic event. Our analyses support evidence of undetected premises likely missed in the chain of observed infections, of which the role as the link between the two phases is reinforced by the tempo of SVD virus evolution. These silent transmissions, likely resulting from the gradual loss of a clear SVD clinical manifestation linked to sub-clinical infections, may pose a risk of failure in the early detection of new cases. This study emphasises the power of joint inference schemes based on genomic and epidemiological data integration to inform the transmission dynamics of disease epidemics, ultimately aimed at better disease control.

Virus Prevalence and Genetic Diversity Across a Wild Bumblebee Community

Viruses are key population regulators, but we have limited knowledge of the diversity and ecology of viruses. This is even the case in wild host populations that provide ecosystem services, where small fitness effects may have major ecological impacts in aggregate. One such group of hosts are the bumblebees, which have a major role in the pollination of food crops and have suffered population declines and range contractions in recent decades. In this study, we investigate the diversity of four recently discovered bumblebee viruses (Mayfield virus 1, Mayfield virus 2, River Liunaeg virus, and Loch Morlich virus), and two previously known viruses that infect both wild bumblebees and managed honeybees (Acute bee paralysis virus and Slow bee paralysis virus) from isolates in Scotland. We investigate the ecological and environmental factors that determine viral presence and absence. We show that the recently discovered bumblebee viruses were more genetically diverse than the viruses shared with honeybees. Coinfection is potentially important in shaping prevalence: we found a strong positive association between River Liunaeg virus and Loch Morlich virus presence after controlling for host species, location and other relevant ecological variables. We tested for a relationship between environmental variables (temperature, UV radiation, wind speed, and prevalence), but as we had few sampling sites, and thus low power for site-level analyses, we could not conclude anything regarding these variables. We also describe the relationship between the bumblebee communities at our sampling sites. This study represents a first step in the description of predictors of bumblebee infection in the wild.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity and transmission

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have enabled researchers to monitor its spread and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission, we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the United Kingdom. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high and by a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost or occasionally fixed at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity, patterns that are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to arise infrequently but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity and the implications for qRT-PCR diagnostics and transmission

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an urgent need to uncover the underlying biology of this devastating disease. Though RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, there are a relatively small number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that differentiate the main SARS-CoV-2 lineages that have spread throughout the world. In this study, we investigated 129 RNA-seq data sets and 6928 consensus genomes to contrast the intra-host and inter-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Our analyses yielded three major observations. First, the mutational profile of SARS-CoV-2 highlights intra-host single nucleotide variant (iSNV) and SNP similarity, albeit with differences in C > U changes. Second, iSNV and SNP patterns in SARS-CoV-2 are more similar to MERS-CoV than SARS-CoV-1. Third, a significant fraction of insertions and deletions contribute to the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Altogether, our findings provide insight into SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity, inform the design of detection tests, and highlight the potential of iSNVs for tracking the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified viral load as a critical factor in variant identification. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

SARS-CoV-2: Cross-scale Insights from Ecology and Evolution

Ecological and evolutionary processes govern the fitness, propagation, and interactions of organisms through space and time, and viruses are no exception. While coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) research has primarily emphasized virological, clinical, and epidemiological perspectives, crucial aspects of the pandemic are fundamentally ecological or evolutionary. Here, we highlight five conceptual domains of ecology and evolution – invasion, consumer-resource interactions, spatial ecology, diversity, and adaptation – that illuminate (sometimes unexpectedly) the emergence and spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We describe the applications of these concepts across levels of biological organization and spatial scales, including within individual hosts, host populations, and multispecies communities. Together, these perspectives illustrate the integrative power of ecological and evolutionary ideas and highlight the benefits of interdisciplinary thinking for understanding emerging viruses.

Quantification of Brucella abortus population structure in a natural host

Cattle are natural hosts of the intracellular pathogen Brucella abortus, which inflicts a significant burden on the health and reproduction of these important livestock. The primary routes of infection in field settings have been described, but it is not known how the bovine host shapes the structure of B. abortus populations during infection. We utilized a library of uniquely barcoded B. abortus strains to temporally and spatially quantify population structure during colonization of cattle through a natural route of infection. Introducing 10⁸ bacteria from this barcoded library to the conjunctival mucosa resulted in expected levels of local lymph node colonization at a 1-wk time point. We leveraged variance in strain abundance in the library to demonstrate that only 1 in 10,000 brucellae introduced at the site of infection reached a parotid lymph node. Thus, cattle restrict the overwhelming majority of B. abortus introduced via the ocular conjunctiva at this dose. Individual strains were spatially restricted within the host tissue, and the total B. abortus census was dominated by a small number of distinct strains in each lymph node. These results define a bottleneck that B. abortus must traverse to colonize local lymph nodes from the conjunctival mucosa. The data further support a model in which a small number of spatially isolated granulomas founded by unique strains are present at 1 wk postinfection. These experiments demonstrate the power of barcoded transposon tools to quantify infection bottlenecks and to define pathogen population structure in host tissues.

Population Bottlenecks and Intra-host Evolution During Human-to-Human Transmission of SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of the novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, causes a global COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic. Here, we have characterized and compared viral populations of SARS-CoV-2 among COVID-19 patients within and across households. Our work showed an active viral replication activity in the human respiratory tract and the co-existence of genetically distinct viruses within the same host. The inter-host comparison among viral populations further revealed a narrow transmission bottleneck between patients from the same households, suggesting a dominated role of stochastic dynamics in both inter-host and intra-host evolutions.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in domestic cats imposes a narrow bottleneck

The evolutionary mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 viruses adapt to mammalian hosts and, potentially, undergo antigenic evolution depend on the ways genetic variation is generated and selected within and between individual hosts. Using domestic cats as a model, we show that SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences remain largely unchanged over time within hosts, while dynamic sub-consensus diversity reveals processes of genetic drift and weak purifying selection. We further identify a notable variant at amino acid position 655 in Spike (H655Y), which was previously shown to confer escape from human monoclonal antibodies. This variant arises rapidly and persists at intermediate frequencies in index cats. It also becomes fixed following transmission in two of three pairs. These dynamics suggest this site may be under positive selection in this system and illustrate how a variant can quickly arise and become fixed in parallel across multiple transmission pairs. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in cats involved a narrow bottleneck, with new infections founded by fewer than ten viruses. In RNA virus evolution, stochastic processes like narrow transmission bottlenecks and genetic drift typically act to constrain the overall pace of adaptive evolution. Our data suggest that here, positive selection in index cats followed by a narrow transmission bottleneck may have instead accelerated the fixation of S H655Y, a potentially beneficial SARS-CoV-2 variant. Overall, our study suggests species- and context-specific adaptations are likely to continue to emerge. This underscores the importance of continued genomic surveillance for new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as heightened scrutiny for signatures of SARS-CoV-2 positive selection in humans and mammalian model systems.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified a viral load threshold that minimizes false positives. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in domestic cats imposes a narrow bottleneck

The evolutionary mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 viruses adapt to mammalian hosts and, potentially, undergo antigenic evolution depend on the ways genetic variation is generated and selected within and between individual hosts. Using domestic cats as a model, we show that SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences remain largely unchanged over time within hosts, while dynamic sub-consensus diversity reveals processes of genetic drift and weak purifying selection. We further identify a notable variant at amino acid position 655 in Spike (H655Y), which was previously shown to confer escape from human monoclonal antibodies. This variant arises rapidly and persists at intermediate frequencies in index cats. It also becomes fixed following transmission in two of three pairs. These dynamics suggest this site may be under positive selection in this system and illustrate how a variant can quickly arise and become fixed in parallel across multiple transmission pairs. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in cats involved a narrow bottleneck, with new infections founded by fewer than ten viruses. In RNA virus evolution, stochastic processes like narrow transmission bottlenecks and genetic drift typically act to constrain the overall pace of adaptive evolution. Our data suggest that here, positive selection in index cats followed by a narrow transmission bottleneck may have instead accelerated the fixation of S H655Y, a potentially beneficial SARS-CoV-2 variant. Overall, our study suggests species- and context-specific adaptations are likely to continue to emerge. This underscores the importance of continued genomic surveillance for new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as heightened scrutiny for signatures of SARS-CoV-2 positive selection in humans and mammalian model systems.