Large-scale ozone episodes in Europe: Decreasing sizes in the last decades but diverging changes in the future

Episodes of high near-surface ozone concentrations tend to cover large areas for several days. They are strongly dependent on meteorology, precursor emissions, and the ambient photochemical conditions. This study introduces a new pseudo-Lagrangian algorithm that identifies the spatiotemporal patterns of episodes, allowing for a good characterization of their areal extent and an assessment of their drivers. The algorithm has been used to identify ozone episodes in Europe from April to September over the last twenty years (2003-2022) in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis as well as in the historical simulation (1950-2014) and four shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs, spanning 2015-2100) of three Earth system models (UKESM1-0-LL, EC-Earth3-AerChem and GFDL-ESM4). While the total number of episodes has increased in recent years, the frequency of large episodes has decreased following European precursor emission reductions. The analysis of the 100 largest episodes shows that they tend to occur in Northern Europe during spring and in the center and south of the continent from June onwards. Most of the top 10 episodes occurred in the first years of the century and were associated with high temperatures, enhanced solar radiation, and anticyclonic conditions. Despite the decrease in large episodes in recent years, there is uncertainty regarding future European episodes. Episodes of reduced size are found for SSPs with weak greenhouse forcing and low precursor emissions, whereas episode sizes increase in scenarios with high methane concentrations and enhanced radiative forcing, even exceeding the maximum historical size. However, the three models project episodes of different sizes for any given scenario, probably associated with their differing warming trends and the varying level of complexity in the implementation of processes. These results point to the need to implement both effective climate and air quality policies to address the ozone air pollution problem in Europe in a warming climate.

How urban heat island magnifies hot day exposure: Global unevenness derived from differences in built landscape

Urban heat-islands reportedly expose densely populated areas to higher temperatures. However, the magnitude of the impact of extra hot-day exposure (EHDE) and its association with the effects of urbanization on a global scale remain unclear. As local climate zones (LCZs) refine the impact of differences in urban built-type on heat-island effects, this study aimed to quantify the global EHDE caused by the urban heat-island effect based on LCZs and explored the joint impacts of low gross-domestic product and an increasing vulnerable-age population on EHDE. The results showed that EHDE accounted for 48.01 % of overall hot-day exposure. Additionally, despite a significant geographic differentiation among LCZ types with the highest EHDE intensity, they are almost typically building-intensive LCZs. Furthermore, our study revealed regional differences in the structure of the EHDE share in LCZs, which support the adoption of targeted EHDE mitigation strategies.

Estimating the heat-related mortality and morbidity burden in the province of Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, there is an urgent need to quantify the heat-related health burden. However, most past studies have focussed on a single health outcome (mainly mortality) or on specific heatwaves, thus providing limited knowledge of the total pressure heat exerts on health services.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to quantify the heat-related mortality and morbidity burden for five different health outcomes including all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, ambulance transports and calls to a health hotline, using the province of Quebec (Canada) as a case study.

METHODS

A two-step statistical analysis was employed to estimate regional heat-health relationships using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) and pooled estimates using a multivariate meta-regression. Heat burden was quantified by attributable fraction (AF) and attributable number (AN) for two temperature ranges: all heat (above the minimum mortality/morbidity temperature) and extreme heat (above the 95th percentile of temperature).

RESULTS

Higher temperatures were associated with greater risk ratios for all health outcomes studied, but at different levels. Significant AF ranging from 2 to 3% for the all heat effect and 0.4-1.0% for extreme heat were found for all health outcomes, except for hospitalizations that had an AF of 0.1% for both heat exposures. The estimated burden of all heat (and extreme heat) every summer across the province was 470 (200) deaths, 225 (170) hospitalizations, 36 000 (6 200) ED visits, 7 200 (1 500) ambulance transports and 15 000 (3 300) calls to a health hotline, all figures significant.

DISCUSSION

This new knowledge on the total heat load will help public health authorities to target appropriate actions to reduce its burden now and in the future. The proposed state-of-the-art framework can easily be applied to other regions also experiencing the adverse effects of extreme heat.

Exposure to heat wave risks across time and places: Seasonal variations and predictors of feelings of threat across heat wave geographical susceptibility locations

Vulnerability to heat waves and their negative effects on health vary not only due to individual factors but also due to situational factors, such as time and geography. Hence, we explored seasonal variations and predictors of heat wave feelings of threat across different heat wave geographical susceptibility locations in Portugal. A total of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web-based longitudinal survey: before the summer, during a heat wave in the summer, during the summer, and after the summer. Geographical location was used as an indicator of risk exposure, operationalized as heat wave occurrence susceptibility (low, moderate, high). Heat wave demands and resources perceptions were assessed to compute an indicator of heat wave feelings of threat. During the heat wave, feelings of threat were higher among participants in high-susceptibility locations, with demands outweighing resources perceptions, suggesting greater distress and coping difficulty. Regression analysis suggested that older participants and female participants living in moderate-high-susceptibility locations had greater difficulty in recovering. Heat wave risk perception and positive affect about heat were identified as the most consistent predictors of heat wave feelings of threat, with risk perception increasing and positive affect decreasing such feelings. Participants with (individual and geographical) vulnerability profiles, who had greater difficulty in coping and recovering from heat waves, could benefit from resource-building/enhancing interventions. In a climatic crisis context, monitoring psychological responses to heat waves (e.g., threat) may enable anticipated action to build resilience before, rather than after, the effects become damaging to physical and psychological health.

Quantifying the historical and future heat-related mortality above the heat alert thresholds of the inaugural Chinese national heat-health action plan

BACKGROUND

China published its inaugural national heat-health action plan (HHAP) in 2023, but the mortality burden associated with temperatures exceeding the heat alert thresholds specified by this HHAP (maximum temperatures >35, 37, or 40 °C) remains unknown. We aimed to estimate the historical and future mortality burden associated with temperatures above the heat alert thresholds of the Chinese national HHAP.

METHODS

We conducted time-series analyses to estimate the mortality burden associated with temperatures exceeding the three heat alert thresholds from 2016-2019 in Jiangsu Province (including 13 cities, population ∼80.7 million), China. A quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the dose-response association between maximum temperature and mortality risk from 2016-2019, adjusting for potential covariates. We then projected the future mortality burden associated with temperatures exceeding these thresholds under three distinct levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios via scenario shared socioeconomic pathways [SSP] 1-2.6 (low), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), and SSP5-8.5 (high), respectively, by assuming that there will be no adaptation to heat. Climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used.

RESULTS

From 2016-2019, temperatures above 35 °C were associated with 0.51% of mortality, including 0.40% associated with 35 °C - 37 °C and 0.11% associated with >37 °C. Heat-related mortality risk was most prominent in those who were single/divorced/widowed and had <10 years of education. Under SSP2-4.5, compared with the 2020s, the excess mortality associated with >37 °C would increase by 1.4 times in the 2050s and 1.7 times in the 2090s. Under SSP5-8.5, the annual number of days with maximum temperature >37 °C would approximately double every 20 years (67 days annually in the 2090s). Consequently, compared with the 2020s, the excess mortality associated with >37 °C would increase by 2.8 times in the 2050s and 18.4 times in the 2090s.

CONCLUSION

Significant mortality risk is associated with temperatures above the lowest heat alert threshold of the Chinese national HHAP (35 °C). If the high GHG emission scenario occurred, the annual number of days and excess mortality associated with maximum temperatures >37 °C would largely increase in the coming decades.

Sex differences in thermophysiological responses of elderly to low-intensity exercise during uncompensable heat strain

PURPOSE

The rising frequency of extreme heat events poses an escalating threat of heat-related illnesses and fatalities, placing an additional strain on global healthcare systems. Whether the risk of heat-related issues is sex specific, particularly among the elderly, remains uncertain.

METHODS

16 men and 15 women of similar age (69 ± 5 years) were exposed to an air temperature of 39.1 ± 0.3 °C and a relative humidity (RH) of 25.1 ± 1.9%, during 20 min of seated rest and at least 40 min of low-intensity (10 W) cycling exercise. RH was gradually increased by 2% every 5 min starting at minute 30. We measured sweat rate, heart rate, thermal sensation, and the rise in gastrointestinal temperature (Tgi) and skin temperature (Tsk).

RESULTS

Tgi consistently increased from minute 30 to 60, with no significant difference between females and males (0.012 ± 0.004 °C/min vs. 0.011 ± 0.005 °C/min; p = 0.64). Similarly, Tsk increase did not differ between females and males (0.044 ± 0.007 °C/min vs. 0.038 ± 0.011 °C/min; p = 0.07). Females exhibited lower sweat rates than males (0.29 ± 0.06 vs. 0.45 ± 0.14 mg/m2/min; p < 0.001) in particular at relative humidities exceeding 30%. No sex differences in heart rate and thermal sensation were observed.

CONCLUSION

Elderly females exhibit significantly lower sweat rates than their male counterparts during low-intensity exercise at ambient temperatures of 39 °C when humidity exceeds 30%. However, both elderly males and females demonstrate a comparable rise in core temperature, skin temperature, and mean body temperature, indicating similar health-related risks associated with heat exposure.

Heat, humidity and health impacts: how causal diagrams can help tell the complex story

The global health burden associated with exposure to heat is a grave concern and is projected to further increase under climate change. While physiological studies have demonstrated the role of humidity alongside temperature in exacerbating heat stress for humans, epidemiological findings remain conflicted. Understanding the intricate relationships between heat, humidity, and health outcomes is crucial to inform adaptation and drive increased global climate change mitigation efforts. This article introduces 'directed acyclic graphs' (DAGs) as causal models to elucidate the analytical complexity in observational epidemiological studies that focus on humid-heat-related health impacts. DAGs are employed to delineate implicit assumptions often overlooked in such studies, depicting humidity as a confounder, mediator, or an effect modifier. We also discuss complexities arising from using composite indices, such as wet-bulb temperature. DAGs representing the health impacts associated with wet-bulb temperature help to understand the limitations in separating the individual effect of humidity from the perceived effect of wet-bulb temperature on health. General examples for regression models corresponding to each of the causal assumptions are also discussed. Our goal is not to prioritize one causal model but to discuss the causal models suitable for representing humid-heat health impacts and highlight the implications of selecting one model over another. We anticipate that the article will pave the way for future quantitative studies on the topic and motivate researchers to explicitly characterize the assumptions underlying their models with DAGs, facilitating accurate interpretations of the findings. This methodology is applicable to similarly complex compound events.

The temporal variation in the effects of extreme temperature on respiratory mortality: Evidence from 136 cities in China, 2006-2019

BACKGROUND

In the context of climate change and urbanization, the temporal variation of the adverse health effect of extreme temperature has attracted increasing attention.

METHODS

The meteorological data and the daily death records of mortality from respiratory diseases of 136 Chinese cities were from 2006 to 2019. Heat wave and cold spell were selected as the indicator events of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature, respectively. The generalized linear model and time-varying distributed lag model were used to perform a two-stage time-series analysis to evaluate the temporal variation of the mortality risk associated with extreme temperature in the total population, sub-populations (sex- and age- specific) and different regions (climatic zone and relative humidity level).

RESULTS

During the study period, relative risk (RR) of respiratory mortality associated with heat wave decreased from 1.22 (95 %CI: 1.07-1.39) to 1.13 (95 %CI: 1.01-1.26) in the total population, and RR of respiratory mortality associated with cold spell decreased from 1.30 (95 %CI: 1.14-1.49) to 1.17 (95 %CI: 1.08-1.26). The impact of heat wave reduced in the males (P = 0.044) and in the females as with cold spell (P < 0.001). The respiratory mortality risk of people over 65 associated with cold spell decreased (P = 0.040 for people aged 65-74 and P < 0.001 for people over 75). The effect of cold spell reduced in cities from tropical or arid zone (P = 0.035). The effects of both heat wave and cold spell decreased in cities with the relative humidity in the first quartile (P = 0.046 and 0.010, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The impact of heat wave on mortality of respiratory diseases decreased mainly in males and cities with the lowest relative humidity, while the impact of cold spell reduced in females, people over 65 and tropical and arid zone, suggesting adaptation to extreme temperature of Chinese residents to some extent.

Sex differences in the association of long-term exposure to heat stress on kidney function in a large Taiwanese population study

The incidence and prevalence of dialysis in Taiwan are high compared to other regions. Consequently, mitigating chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the worsening of kidney function have emerged as critical healthcare priorities in Taiwan. Heat stress is known to be a significant risk factor for CKD and kidney function impairment. However, differences in the impact of heat stress between males and females remains unexplored. We conducted this retrospective cross-sectional analysis using data from the Taiwan Biobank (TWB), incorporating records of the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) during midday (11 AM-2 PM) and working hours (8 AM-5 PM) periods based on the participants' residential address. Average 1-, 3-, and 5-year WBGT values prior to the survey year were calculated and analyzed using a geospatial artificial intelligence-based ensemble mixed spatial model, covering the period from 2010 to 2020. A total of 114,483 participants from the TWB were included in this study, of whom 35.9% were male and 1053 had impaired kidney function (defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2). Multivariable analysis revealed that in the male participants, during the midday period, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year average WBGT values per 1 ℃ increase were significantly positively associated with eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.096, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.002-1.199, p = 0.044 for 1 year; OR, 1.093, 95% CI = 1.000-1.196, p = 0.005 for 3 years; OR, 1.094, 95% CI = 1.002-1.195, p = 0.045 for 5 years). However, significant associations were not found for the working hours period. In the female participants, during the midday period, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year average WBGT values per 1 ℃ increase were significantly negatively associated with eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (OR, 0.872, 95% CI = 0.778-0.976, p = 0.018 for 1 year; OR, 0.874, 95% CI = 0.780-0.978, p = 0.019 for 3 years; OR, 0.875, 95% CI = 0.784-0.977, p = 0.018 for 5 years). In addition, during the working hours period, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year average WBGT values per 1 ℃ increase were also significantly negatively associated with eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (OR, 0.856, 95% CI = 0.774-0.946, p = 0.002 for 1 year; OR, 0.856, 95% CI = 0.774-0.948, p = 0.003 for 3 years; OR, 0.853, 95% CI = 0.772-0.943, p = 0.002 for 5 years). In conclusion, our results revealed that increased WBGT was associated with impaired kidney function in males, whereas increased WBGT was associated with a protective effect against impaired kidney function in females. Further studies are needed to elucidate the exact mechanisms underlying these sex-specific differences.

Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time

BACKGROUND

The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends.

METHODS

Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature-mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored.

RESULTS

Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.

Indoor overheating: A review of vulnerabilities, causes, and strategies to prevent adverse human health outcomes during extreme heat events

The likelihood of exposure to overheated indoor environments is increasing as climate change is exacerbating the frequency and severity of hot weather and extreme heat events (EHE). Consequently, vulnerable populations will face serious health risks from indoor overheating. While the relationship between EHE and human health has been assessed in relation to outdoor temperature, indoor temperature patterns can vary markedly from those measured outside. This is because the built environment and building characteristics can act as an important modifier of indoor temperatures. In this narrative review, we examine the physiological and behavioral determinants that influence a person's susceptibility to indoor overheating. Further, we explore how the built environment, neighborhood-level factors, and building characteristics can impact exposure to excess heat and we overview how strategies to mitigate building overheating can help reduce heat-related mortality in heat-vulnerable occupants. Finally, we discuss the effectiveness of commonly recommended personal cooling strategies that aim to mitigate dangerous increases in physiological strain during exposure to high indoor temperatures during hot weather or an EHE. As global temperatures continue to rise, the need for a research agenda specifically directed at reducing the likelihood and impact of indoor overheating on human health is paramount. This includes conducting EHE simulation studies to support the development of consensus-based heat mitigation solutions and public health messaging that provides equitable protection to heat-vulnerable people exposed to high indoor temperatures.

Adherence with statins and all-cause mortality in days with high temperature

PURPOSE

It has been suggested that statins may exert thermo-protective effects that can reduce mortality on hot days. We aimed to examine the relationship between statin adherence and mortality in days with high temperature.

METHODS

Utilizing data from a prior historical new-user cohort study, we analyzed a cohort of 229 918 individuals within a state-mandated health provider in Israel who initiated statin therapy between 1998 and 2006. Adherence to statins was assessed through the mean proportion of days covered (PDC) with statins during the follow-up period. The study's primary outcome was all-cause mortality during hot days.

RESULTS

During the study follow-up period, a total of 13 165 individuals (5.7%) died. In a multivariable model, a 10% increase in PDC with statins was associated with an HR of (0.85; 95% CI: 0.72-1.00) for deaths (n = 16) in extremely hot days (≥39°C). This association was numerically stronger compared to HR = 0.94 (0.93-0.94) in cooler days and displayed a significant difference between sexes. In males, the fully-adjusted HR for a 10% increase in PDC with statins was 0.66 (0.45-0.95), while in women, it was 0.98 (0.78-1.23). In contrast, no such effect modification was observed for death in cooler days.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings align with earlier research, supporting the notion that adherence with statin treatment may be associated with a reduced risk of death during extremely hot days, particularly among men.

Shared insights for heat health risk adaptation in metropolitan areas of developing countries

Global warming has led to a surge in heat health risks (HHRs), the impacts of which are particularly pronounced in metropolitan areas of developing countries. In the current study, six metropolitan areas - Beijing, China; Cairo, Egypt; Jakarta, Indonesia; Mumbai, India; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and Tehran, Iran - were selected as the study area to further differentiate the built-up landscapes by utilizing the concept of local climate zones. Moreover, we assessed the similarities and differences in HHR associated with the landscape. Results revealed a 30.67% higher HHR in compact built-up landscapes than in the open built-up type. Urban green spaces played an effective but differentiated role in mitigating HHR. That is, low vegetation in urbanized areas and trees in suburban areas significantly mitigated HHR. Collectively, our findings emphasize the role of effective planning and management in addressing HHR and provide empirical support for implementing HHR mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177-246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

Resilience: conceptualisations and challenges for effective heatwave public health planning

OBJECTIVES

This article examines diverse perspectives on heatwave resilience in public health planning, interviewing stakeholders from various sectors. It identifies challenges, including operational, political, economic, and cultural aspects, hindering effective strategies. The study advocates for a holistic approach to heatwave resilience, emphasising interdisciplinary research and collaboration for targeted interventions. Enhancing resilience is crucial to mitigating adverse health impacts and safeguarding vulnerable populations during heatwaves. Conceptualisations of resilience related to heatwave public health planning and heatwave resilience vary significantly. There is a need to unveil the multifaceted nature of resilience in the context of heatwaves and identify key challenges that hinder effective public health planning efforts.

STUDY DESIGN

Qualitative study to explore key stakeholders' conceptualisations of resilience and highlight challenges and opportunities needed for greater heatwave resilience and public health planning.

METHODS

Interviews were conducted with a diverse group of key stakeholders involved in local, regional, and national heatwave planning, academics, civil sector and private sector representatives.

RESULTS

The findings of this study highlight diverse conceptualisations of resilience. Conceptualisations of resilience mainly differ on the following: 'whom'; 'what'; 'how'; 'when'; and 'why'. This analysis shows that the concept of resilience is well understood but has different functions. The analysis of challenges revealed several key problems, such as operational and technical; political and governance; organisational and institutional; economic; linguistic; cultural, social, and behavioural; and communication, information, and awareness. These significantly hinder effective heatwave public health planning strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

The study emphasises the need for a holistic and integrated approach to heatwave resilience. Addressing these challenges is crucial for enhancing heatwave public health planning. This study provides valuable insights into the complexities of heatwave resilience, offering guidance for different sectors of society to develop targeted interventions and strategies. The development of new resilience interdisciplinary and intersectoral research, practice, and governance will prove crucial to ongoing efforts to strengthen national heatwave resilience public health planning. By fostering resilience, societies can mitigate the adverse impacts of heatwaves and safeguard the health and well-being of vulnerable populations.

LRRK2 is involved in heat exposure-induced acute lung injury and alveolar type II epithelial cell dysfunction

Heat exposure induces excessive hyperthermia associated with systemic inflammatory response that leads to multiple organ dysfunction including acute lung injury. However, how heat impairs the lung remains elusive so far. We aimed to explore the underlying mechanism by focusing on leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2), which was associated with lung homeostasis. Both in vivo and in vitro models were induced by heat exposure. Firstly, heat exposure exerted core temperature (Tc) disturbance, pulmonary dysfunction, atelectasis, inflammation, impaired energy metabolism, and reduced surfactant proteins in the lung of mice. In addition, decreased LRRK2 expression and increased heat shock proteins (HSPs) 70 were observed with heat exposure in both the lung of mice and alveolar type II epithelial cells (AT2). Furthermore, LRRK2 inhibition aggravated heat exposure-initiated Tc dysregulation, injury in the lung and AT2 cells, and enhanced HSP70 expression. In conclusion, LRRK2 is involved in heat-induced acute lung injury and AT2 cell dysfunction.

Climate Change, Emerging Vector-Borne Illnesses, and Anesthetic Considerations

As a result of the widespread prevalence of anesthetic usage, anesthesia-related complications are well studied, ranging from benign postoperative nausea and vomiting to potentially fatal complications, such as paralysis, malignant hyperthermia, and death. However, one intersection that still needs further analysis is the relationship between vector-borne illnesses (VBIs) and anesthetic complications. With the advent of climate change and global warming, what were previously endemic vectors have spread far beyond their typical regions, resulting in the spread of VBI. As the incidence of VBIs rapidly increases in the United States, operations for diagnostic testing, and thus the identification and treatments of these VBIs, have significantly diminished. A literature review was conducted to analyze case reports of patients with VBIs and anesthetic concerns with sources from PubMed and Google Scholar databases, and a wide range of complications were found.

A scoping review of human health co-benefits of forest-based climate change mitigation in Europe

Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation.

The impacts of extreme temperature on mortality and emergency hospital admissions within East Sussex in comparison with pre-existing national trends

BACKGROUND

The impacts of heatwaves are a rapidly growing area of study; however, much of the existing research focusses on national data analysis. This article aims to add a local perspective using data from only one county, East Sussex, and comparing these with the pre-existing national data.

METHODS

Population data were obtained from publicly available sources such as the Office of National Statistics, in addition to anonymized data from patients. Statistical analysis calculated excess mortality and emergency hospital admissions associated with both winter and heatwaves. Further analyses into factors associated with worse health outcomes in pre-existing data, such as the extremes of age (under 1 s and over 75 s), dementia and respiratory conditions, were conducted and their effect on excess mortality and emergency admissions was compared with national data.

RESULTS

Excess winter mortality within East Sussex averaged 22.5%. Excess heatwave mortality averaged 17%, measuring higher than national data. The relative significance of these data is expected to increase over the next 30 years in line with the UK Health Security Agency projection of heat-related mortality tripling by 2050 in the context of global warming and increasing temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the number of residents dying or requiring emergency admission due to cold weather is larger than that of heatwaves, trends show a worsening impact of heatwaves. The results of this report are significant findings which show more action is required to mitigate the effects of extreme heat.

The Use of the Health Belief Model in the Context of Heatwaves Research: A Rapid Review

As heatwaves increase and intensify worldwide, so has the research aimed at outlining strategies to protect individuals from their impact. Interventions that promote adaptive measures to heatwaves are encouraged, but evidence on how to develop such interventions is still scarce. Although the Health Belief Model is one of the leading frameworks guiding behavioral change interventions, the evidence of its use in heatwave research is limited. This rapid review aims to identify and describe the main themes and key findings in the literature regarding the use of the Health Belief Model in heatwaves research. It also highlights important research gaps and future research priorities. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, 10 articles were included, with a geographic distribution as follows: United States (n = 1), Australia (n = 1), Pakistan (n = 1), and China (n = 1), as well as Malaysia (n = 2), Germany (n = 1), and Austria (n = 1). Results showed a lack of research using the Health Belief Model to study heatwaves induced by climate change. Half of the studies assessed heatwave risk perception, with the 2 most frequently used constructs being Perceived Susceptibility and Perceived Severity. The Self-efficacy construct was instead used less often. Most of the research was conducted in urban communities. This review underscores the need for further research using the Health Belief Model.

Extreme heat, pregnancy and women's well-being in Burkina Faso: an ethnographical study

Climate change is an increasing threat to the health of populations in Africa, with a shift in seasonal temperatures towards more extreme heat exposures. In Burkina Faso, like other countries in the Sahel, many women have little protection against exposure to high temperatures, either outside or inside the home or place of work. This paper investigates how women perceive the impacts of heat on their physical and mental health, in addition to their social relationships and economic activities. Qualitative methods (in-depth interviews and focus group discussions) were conducted with women, community representatives and healthcare professionals in two regions in Burkina Faso. A thematic analysis was used to explore the realities of participants' experiences and contextual perspectives in relation to heat. Our research shows extreme temperatures have a multifaceted impact on pregnant women, mothers and newborns. Extreme heat affects women's functionality and well-being. Heat undermines a woman's ability to care for themselves and their child and interferes negatively with breast feeding. Heat negatively affects their ability to work and to maintain harmonious relationships with their partners and families. Cultural practices such as a taboo on taking the baby outside before the 40th day may exacerbate some of the negative consequences of heat. Most women do not recognise heat stress symptoms and lack awareness of heat risks to health. There is a need to develop public health messages to reduce the impacts of heat on health in Burkina Faso. Programmes and policies are needed to strengthen the ability of health professionals to communicate with women about best practices in heat risk management.

How do urban green spaces influence heat-related mortality in elderly? A realist synthesis

BACKGROUND

An important consequence of climate change for urban health is heat-related mortality. Vulnerable groups, especially elderly, will be the most affected. A solution put forward in many reports and policy documents is the introduction or expansion of urban green spaces. While they have a proven effect in decreasing the ambient temperature and reducing heat related mortality, the causal pathways are far from clear. Moreover, results vary for different contexts, population types and characteristics of green spaces as they are 'complex systems thrusted into complex systems'. To our knowledge, there is no systematic synthesis of the literature that examines the mechanisms by which and the circumstances under which green spaces work to decrease heat-related mortality for elderly.

METHODS

We performed a realist synthesis- a theory-driven review method- to develop a complexity- and context-sensitive program theory. As a first step, a causal loop diagram was constructed which describes the possible pathways through which urban green spaces influence heat-related mortality in elderly. In a second step, one of the pathways - how they may lead to a reduction of heat-related mortality by increasing social capital - was further explored for underlying mechanisms, the context in which they work and the differentiated patterns of outcomes they generate. Literature was searched for evidence supporting or contradicting the initial programme theory, resulting in a refined theory.

RESULTS

Results show how urban green space can impact on heat-related mortality in elderly by its influence on their exposure to outdoor and indoor heat, by improving their resilience as well as by affecting their access to treatment. Urban green spaces and their interactions with social capital affect the access to health information, social support, and the capacity for effective lobbying. Several mechanisms help to explain these observed demi-regularities, among others perceived behavioural control, perceived usefulness, receptiveness, ontological security, and self-interest. If and how they are triggered depends on the characteristics of the urban green space, the population, and other contextual factors.

CONCLUSION

Looking into the impact of urban green spaces on heat-related mortality in elderly, researchers and policy makers should take interest in the role of social capital.

Street trees provide an opportunity to mitigate urban heat and reduce risk of high heat exposure

Climate change is exacerbating the need for urban greening and the associated environmental and human well-being benefits. Trees can help mitigate urban heat, but more detailed understanding of cooling effects of green infrastructure are needed to guide management decisions and deploy trees as effective and equitable climate adaptation infrastructure. We investigated how urban trees affect summer air temperature along sidewalks within a neighborhood of Tacoma, Washington, USA, and to what extent urban trees reduce risks of high summer temperatures (i.e., the levels regulated by state outdoor heat exposure rules intended to reduce heat-related illnesses). Air temperature varied by 2.57 °C, on average, across our study area, and the probability of daytime temperatures exceeding regulated high temperature thresholds was up to five times greater in locations with no canopy cover within 10 m compared to those with 100% cover. Air temperatures decreased linearly with increasing cover within 10 m, suggesting that every unit of added tree cover can help cool the air. Our findings highlight the value of trees in mitigating urban heat, especially given expected warming with climate change. Protecting existing urban trees and increasing tree cover (e.g., by planting street trees), are important actions to enhance climate change resilience of urban areas.

Revisiting the importance of temperature, weather and air pollution variables in heat-mortality relationships with machine learning

Extreme heat events have significant health impacts that need to be adequately quantified in the context of climate change. Traditionally, heat-health association methods have relied on statistical models using a single air temperature index, without considering other heat-related variables that may influence the relationship and their potentially complex interactions. This study aims to introduce and compare different machine learning (ML) models, which naturally consider interactions between predictors and non-linearities, to re-examine the importance of temperature, weather and air pollution predictors in modeling the heat-mortality relationship. ML approaches based on tree ensembles and neural networks, as well as non-linear statistical models, were used to model the heat-mortality relationship in the two most populated metropolitan areas of the province of Quebec, Canada. The models were calibrated using a comprehensive database of heat-related predictors including various lagged temperature indices, temperature variations, meteorological and air pollution variables. Performance was evaluated based on out-of-sample summer mortality predictions. For the two studied regions, models relying only on lagged temperature indices performed better, or equally well, than models considering more heat-related predictors such as temperature variations, weather and air pollution variables. The temperature index with the best performance differed by region, but both mean temperature and humidex were among the best indices. In terms of modeling approaches, non-linear statistical models were as competent as more advanced ML models for predicting out-of-sample summer mortality. This research validated the current use of non-linear statistical models with the appropriate lagged temperature index to model the heat-mortality relationship. Although ML models have not improved the performance of all-cause mortality modeling, these approaches should continue to be explored, particularly for other health effects that may be more directly linked to heat exposure and, in the future, when more data become available.

Mental illness and increased vulnerability to negative health effects from extreme heat events: a systematic review

RATIONALE

Across countries, extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity because of climate change. Exposure to extreme heat events can have a substantial negative impact on human health, and extant research suggests that individuals with mental illness are particularly vulnerable. To date, there has been no review of evidence regarding this vulnerability to inform response strategies and future research.

OBJECTIVE

A systematic review was undertaken to investigate mental illness as an effect modifier of the relationship between heat exposure and morbidity or mortality.

METHODS

Six databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health, PsychInfo, CINAHL and Scopus) were searched for studies published between the years 2000 to 2022. Twenty-two observational studies that met the inclusion criteria were investigated through narrative synthesis. The RoBANS tool, ROBIS and GRADE were used to assess the certainty of evidence including the risk of bias.

RESULTS

Individuals with mental illness experience worse morbidity and mortality outcomes compared to their counterparts without mental illness in all studies investigating high temperature over a single day. This did not hold for studies examining heatwaves, which reported mixed findings.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

People with diagnosed mental illness should be targeted for policy and service attention during high temperature days. Further research should investigate specific mental illness and adjust for a wider range of confounding factors.

Twenty-first-century demographic and social inequalities of heat-related deaths in Brazilian urban areas

Population exposure to heat waves (HWs) is increasing worldwide due to climate change, significantly affecting society, including public health. Despite its significant vulnerabilities and limited adaptation resources to rising temperatures, South America, particularly Brazil, lacks research on the health impacts of temperature extremes, especially on the role played by socioeconomic factors in the risk of heat-related illness. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the effects of HWs on mortality rates in the 14 most populous urban areas, comprising approximately 35% of the country's population. Excess mortality during HWs was estimated through the observed-to-expected ratio (O/E) for total deaths during the events identified. Moreover, the interplay of intersectionality and vulnerability to heat considering demographics and socioeconomic heterogeneities, using gender, age, race, and educational level as proxies, as well as the leading causes of heat-related excess death, were assessed. A significant increase in the frequency was observed from the 1970s (0-3 HWs year-1) to the 2010s (3-11 HWs year-1), with higher tendencies in the northern, northeastern, and central-western regions. Over the 2000-2018 period, 48,075 (40,448-55,279) excessive deaths were attributed to the growing number of HWs (>20 times the number of landslides-related deaths for the same period). Nevertheless, our event-based surveillance analysis did not detect the HW-mortality nexus, reinforcing that extreme heat events are a neglected disaster in Brazil. Among the leading causes of death, diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems and neoplasms were the most frequent. Critical regional differences were observed, which can be linked to the sharp North-South inequalities in terms of socioeconomic and health indicators, such as life expectancy. Higher heat-related excess mortality was observed for low-educational level people, blacks and browns, older adults, and females. Such findings highlight that the strengthening of primary health care combined with reducing socioeconomic, racial, and gender inequalities represents a crucial step to reducing heat-related deaths.

Indicators to support local public health to reduce the impacts of heat on health

Heat exposure presents a significant weather-related health risk in England and Wales, and is associated with acute impacts on mortality and adverse effects on a range of clinical conditions, as well as increased healthcare costs. Most heat-related health outcomes are preventable with health protection measures such as behavioural changes, individual cooling actions, and strategies implemented at the landscape level or related to improved urban infrastructure. We review current limitations in reporting systems and propose ten indicators to monitor changes in heat exposures, vulnerabilities, heat-health outcomes, and progress on adaptation actions. These indicators can primarily inform local area decision-making in managing risks across multiple sectors such as public health, adult and social care, housing, urban planning, and education. The indicators can be used alongside information on other vulnerabilities relevant for heat and health such as underlying morbidity or housing characteristics, to prioritise the most effective adaptation actions for those who need it the most.

The association between climate and emergency department visits for renal and urinary disease in Charlottesville, Virginia

Diseases of the kidney and urinary tract impose a significant portion of the total disease burden, and linkages to high temperature exposure suggest that this burden may increase in the near future. We examined the association between climate and daily emergency department (ED) visits for kidney and urinary disease at the University of Virginia main hospital in Charlottesville, Virginia from 2005 to 2020. Generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models were used to examine these associations over a 21-day lag period. After testing a variety of weather variables from observations taken at the Charlottesville, Albemarle County Airport weather station, 1 p.m. temperature was found to have the strongest association with ED visits for renal and urinary visits while controlling for seasonal and trend factors, air quality, day of the week, and wintry weather. The relative risk of ED visits exhibited a stronger association with high temperatures compared to low temperatures. The heat response was pronounced at short lags (0-1 days) with the relative risk (RR) increasing when 1 p.m. temperatures exceeded 20°C and peaking at 29°C (RR = 1.28). By comparison, low temperatures (≤0°C) exhibited a negative association (RR = 0.80 at -10°C) at short lags (0-1 day), with evidence of a weak RR increase at lags of 2-3 and 9-14 days. These results for ED visitation are consistent with other studies linking high temperatures to acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, the development of kidney stones, and other associated illnesses. A better understanding of the impact of temperature extremes in generating or exacerbating existing conditions could assist medical health professionals in the prevention and management of these diseases during extreme weather events.

Gut microbiota associated with appetite suppression in high-temperature and high-humidity environments

BACKGROUND

Food is crucial for maintaining vital human and animal activities. Disorders in appetite control can lead to various metabolic disturbances. Alterations in the gut microbial composition can affect appetite and energy metabolism. While alterations in the gut microbiota have been observed in high-temperature and high-humidity (HTH) environments, the relationship between the gut microbiota during HTH and appetite remains unclear.

METHODS

We utilised an artificial climate box to mimic HTH environments, and established a faecal bacteria transplantation (FMT) mouse model. Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis was used to further confirm the causal relationship between gut microbiota and appetite or appetite-related hormones.

FINDINGS

We found that, in the eighth week of exposure to HTH environments, mice showed a decrease in food intake and body weight, and there were significant changes in the intestinal microbiota compared to the control group. After FMT, we observed similar changes in food intake, body weight, and gut bacteria. Appetite-related hormones, including ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide-1, and insulin, were reduced in DH (mice exposed to HTH conditions) and DHF (FMT from mice exposed to HTH environments for 8 weeks), while the level of peptide YY initially increased and then decreased in DH and increased after FMT. Moreover, MR analysis further confirmed that these changes in the intestinal microbiota could affect appetite or appetite-related hormones.

INTERPRETATION

Together, our data suggest that the gut microbiota is closely associated with appetite suppression in HTH. These findings provide novel insights into the effects of HTH on appetite.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine.

Maternal exposure to heat and its association with miscarriage in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

We sought to improve the current understanding of how climate change impacts women's reproductive health in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage (pregnancy ending before 20 weeks gestation) in a South African setting.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

METHODS

Our study involved data for pregnancies collected via a health and demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa between 2012 and 2016. Data from the South African Weather Service were used to compute maternal exposure to heat during the following time windows for each pregnancy: during the month preceding conception (T1) and during the week preceding the study outcome (either a miscarriage or no miscarriage, T2). Heat exposure was operationalized as a continuous variable and defined as the number of days that a mother was exposed to a mean daily temperature of > 26.6°C (A "hot day," equivalent to a mean daily temperature of > 80°F) during T1 or T2. Binary logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage.

RESULTS

A total of 105/3477 pregnancies included in our analysis ended in miscarriage (3.0%). Each additional hot day during T1 was associated with a 26% higher odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 1.26; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-1.38). No significant associations were observed between maternal heat exposure during T2 and the odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.20). The relationship between maternal heat exposure during T1 and the odds of miscarriage was J-shaped.

CONCLUSION

There is a clear relationship between maternal heat exposure during the month preceding conception and miscarriage in our sub-Saharan African setting. Given the lack of feasible strategies to reduce pregnancy loss associated with prevailing high temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, progressive climate change will likely exacerbate existing challenges for women's reproductive health in this region.

High temperatures and urban entrepreneurship levels: Evidence from China

This paper performed as a frontier try to investigate the effect of high temperatures on entrepreneurship, assessed from an urban perspective. This paper estimated the impact of high temperatures on urban entrepreneurship levels using data from 281 prefecture cities in China, during the period 2000-2017. This paper found that a single day with a temperature of above 30 °C led to a decrease of 0.47 % in urban entrepreneurship levels, compared with a single day recording comfortable temperatures. Following a series of robustness tests, the results were found to be significant. Next, this paper conducted a series of heterogeneity analyses and discovered that cities with advanced industrial structures, larger sizes and more essential hierarchies were less affected by high temperatures. Finally, this paper further analyzed the potential influence mechanisms of high temperatures on entrepreneurship. This paper found that high temperature affects urban entrepreneurship levels by worsening the entrepreneurial environment, especially by reducing human capital, hindering innovation, decreasing the financial support available to enterprises, and hindering economic development. The results of our study have thus enriched the literature on entrepreneurship by exploring the impact of climate change on entrepreneurship.

A 43-year of human thermal comfort in Central Africa

In this study, the human thermal stress was quantified across Central Africa (C.A.) using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Although many of the documented studies on the use of UTCI in relation to human health are currently restricted to countries in the northern hemisphere, this contribution constitutes a prerequisite of information for future research in the region. To mitigate the problem of lack of field data in the Central African sub-region, we downloaded UTCI data via the ERA5 reanalysis portal. Based on this data source, we have explored the spatiotemporal characteristics and the resulting behaviour at annual, seasonal and monthly scales in Central Africa over the period 1982 to 2022. On these different scales, 4 of the 10 UTCI thermal stress categories were experienced, ranging from mild cold stress to strong heat stress. Spatially, cases of moderate heat stress were the most widespread, with cases of strong intensity occurring in a few isolated areas in the centre, east and west. Slight cold stress is confined to the south-east domain, particularly in autumn and winter. From 1982 to 2022, heat stress has increased significantly in the region, with peaks observed in January and October; very few areas have been spared the phenomenon of thermal stress. However, a slight decreasing trend was noticed along coastal regions and the south of C.A. Thereafter, the trend values showed the degree of C.A. vulnerability to global warming, and thus appropriate measures should be taken in relation to outdoor occupations and its impacts on the population of this region.

The effects of warm weather on children's outdoor heat stress and physical activity in a preschool yard in Gothenburg, Sweden

Hot weather conditions can have negative impacts on the thermal comfort and physical activity of vulnerable groups such as children. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of warm weather on 5-year-old children's thermal comfort and physical activity in a preschool yard in Gothenburg, Sweden. In situ measurements were conducted for 1-1.5 h in the early afternoon on 8 days in May, June, and August of 2022. The thermal comfort and physical activity was estimated with GPS-tracks, heart rate monitors, and step counts and compared to observed weather conditions. Results show that physical activity decreases under warmer weather conditions, depicted by a decrease in distance moved, step counts, and highest registered pulse. Moreover, on warm days, the children avoid sunlit areas. For 50% or more of the time spent in sunlit areas, the children are exposed to cautious levels of heat. In shaded areas, on the other hand, the children are less exposed, with five out of 8 days having 50% or more of the time at neutral levels. The study demonstrates the importance of access to shaded areas in preschool yards where children can continue their active play while simultaneously maintaining a safe thermal status.

Translocation of gut microbes to epididymal white adipose tissue drives lipid metabolism disorder under heat stress

Heat stress induces multi-organ damage and serious physiological dysfunction in mammals, and gut bacteria may translocate to extra-intestinal tissues under heat stress pathology. However, whether gut bacteria translocate to the key metabolic organs and impair function as a result of heat stress remains unknown. Using a heat stress-induced mouse model, heat stress inhibited epididymal white adipose tissue (eWAT) expansion and induced lipid metabolic disorder but did not damage other organs, such as the heart, liver, spleen, or muscle. Microbial profiling analysis revealed that heat stress shifted the bacterial community in the cecum and eWAT but not in the inguinal white adipose tissue, blood, heart, liver, spleen, or muscle. Notably, gut-vascular barrier function was impaired, and the levels of some bacteria, particularly Lactobacillus, were higher in the eWAT, as confirmed by catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) staining when mice were under heat stress. Moreover, integrated multi-omics analysis showed that the eWAT microbiota was associated with host lipid metabolism, and the expression of genes involved in the lipid metabolism in eWAT was upregulated under heat stress. A follow-up microbial supplementation study after introducing Lactobacillus plantarum to heat-stressed mice revealed that the probiotic ameliorated heat stress-induced loss of eWAT and dyslipidemia and reduced gut bacterial translocation to the eWAT by improving gut barrier function. Overall, our findings suggest that gut bacteria, particularly Lactobacillus spp., play a crucial role in heat stress-induced lipid metabolism disorder and that there is therapeutic potential for using probiotics, such as Lactobacillus plantarum.

Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050

BACKGROUND

Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios.

METHODS

We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km . We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050.

RESULTS

During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high (≥ 21 ° C ) vs. reference (14 - 15 ° C ) heat index was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.28, 2.27) for cardiovascular mortality, but it did not reach statistical significance for noncardiovascular deaths, RR = 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in case-crossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people.

DISCUSSION

The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is > 1.5 times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080.

Economic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities

As the climate warms, increasing heat-related health risks are expected, and can be exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHIs can also offer protection against cold weather, but a clear quantification of their impacts on human health across diverse cities and seasons is still being explored. Here we provide a 500 m resolution assessment of mortality risks associated with UHIs for 85 European cities in 2015-2017. Acute impacts are found during heat extremes, with a 45% median increase in mortality risk associated with UHI, compared to a 7% decrease during cold extremes. However, protracted cold seasons result in greater integrated protective effects. On average, UHI-induced heat-/cold-related mortality is associated with economic impacts of €192/€ - 314 per adult urban inhabitant per year in Europe, comparable to air pollution and transit costs. These findings urge strategies aimed at designing healthier cities to consider the seasonality of UHI impacts, and to account for social costs, their controlling factors, and intra-urban variability.

Vitexin Regulates Heat Shock Protein Expression by Modulating ROS Levels Thereby Protecting against Heat-Stress-Induced Apoptosis

Heat stress due to high temperatures can cause heat stroke, pyrexia, heat cramps, heart disease, and respiratory diseases, which seriously affect human health. Vitexin has been shown to alleviate heat stress; however, its mechanism of action remains unclear. Therefore, in this study, we used Caco-2 cells to establish a heat stress model and vitamin C as a positive control to investigate the regulatory effects of vitexin on heat-stress-induced apoptosis and the related mechanisms using Cell Counting Kit-8, flow cytometry, real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and Western blot. The results showed that the mRNA expressions of Hsp27, Hsp70, and Hsp90 induced by heat stress could be effectively inhibited at vitexin concentrations as low as 30 μM. After heat stress prevention and heat stress amelioration in model cells based on this concentration, intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and the mRNA level and the protein expression of heat shock proteins (Hsp70 and Hsp90) and apoptotic proteins were reduced. In addition, compared with the heat stress amelioration group, the expression of BCL2 mRNA and its protein (anti-apoptotic protein Bcl-2) increased in the heat stress prevention group, while the expression of BAX, CYCS, CASP3, and PARP1 mRNAs and their proteins (apoptotic proteins Bax, Cytochrome C, cle-Caspase-3, and cle-PARP1) were decreased. In summary, the heat-stress-preventive effect of vitexin was slightly better than its heat-stress-ameliorating effect, and its mechanism may be through the inhibition of intracellular ROS levels and thus the modulation of the expressions of Hsp70 and Hsp90, which in turn protects against heat-stress-induced apoptosis. This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and amelioration of heat stress using vitexin.

High Summer Temperatures and Heat Stroke Mortality in Spain

BACKGROUND

Heat stroke is a significant cause of mortality in response to high summer temperatures. There is limited evidence on the pattern and magnitude of the association between temperature and heat stroke mortality. We examined this association in Spain, using data from a 27-year follow-up period.

METHODS

We used a space-time-stratified case-crossover design. We analyzed data using conditional quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models.

RESULTS

Spain recorded a total of 285 heat stroke deaths between 1990 and 2016. Heat stroke deaths occurred in 6% of the days in the summer months. The mean temperature was, on average, 5 °C higher on days when a heat stroke was recorded than on days without heat stroke deaths. The overall relative risk was 1.74 (95% confidence interval = 1.54, 1.96) for a 1 °C rise in mean temperature above the threshold of 16 °C, at which a heat stroke death was first recorded. We observed lagged effects as long as 10 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Although heat stroke represents a small fraction of total heat-attributable mortality during the summer, it is strongly associated with high temperatures, providing an immediately visible warning of heat-related risk.

Patterns in negative emotions, sleep disorders, and temperature: Evidence from microblog big data

Existing studies have shown that temperature is related to mental illness and sleep disorders. However, few studies have explored the relationship between temperature and microblog negative emotions (MNE) and the predictive effect of MNE on sleep disorders. The present study elucidating the temperature patterns of MNE and sleep disorders, examines the predictive capability of these adverse emotions in precipitating sleep disorders, and operating within the schema of "climate-psychology-behavior". A negative binomial regression model (NBR) was formulated, amalgamating Temperature data, negative affective information procured from microblog, and sleep disorder records. Temperature and Apparent Air Temperature (AAT) were found to have a non-linear association with microblog negative emotions and sleep disorders, exhibiting a modest effect within a specified range, while extreme temperatures (both high and low) demonstrated substantial effects. In the constructed model, gender serves as a moderating factor, with females being more susceptible to temperature and AAT effects on MNE and sleep disorders than their male counterparts. Interestingly, AAT surfaced as a superior predictor compared to actual temperature. MNE were effective predictors of sleep disorders. Employing social media-centric models, as showcased in this study, augments the identification and prevention strategies targeting disease symptoms or pathologies within mental and public health domains.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Health Care Services in Low- or Middle-Income Countries: Protocol for a Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Heat waves significantly impact ecosystems and human health, especially that of vulnerable populations, and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Besides being directly related to climate-sensitive health outcomes, heat waves have indirectly increased the burden on our health care systems. Although the existing literature examines the impact of heat waves and morbidity, past research has mostly been conducted in high-income countries (HICs), and studies on the impact of heat waves on morbidity in low- or middle-income countries (LMICs) are still scarce.

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents the protocol for a systematic review that aims to provide evidence of the impact of heat waves on health care services in LMICs.

METHODS

We will identify peer-reviewed studies from 3 online databases, including the Web of Science, PubMed, and SCOPUS, published from January 2002 to April 2023, using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Quality assessment will be conducted using the Navigation Guide checklist. Key search terms include heatwaves, extreme heat, hospitalization, outpatient visit, burden, health services, and morbidity.

RESULTS

This systematic review will provide insight into the impact of heat waves on health care services in LMICs, especially on emergency department visits, ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, outpatient department visits, in-hospital mortality, and health care operational costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this review are anticipated to help policymakers and key stakeholders obtain a better understanding of the impact of heat waves on health care services and prioritize investments to mitigate the effects of heat waves in LMICs. This entails creating a comprehensive heat wave plan and ensuring that adequate infrastructure, capacity, and human resources are allocated in the health care sector. These measures will undoubtedly contribute to the development of resilience in health care systems and hence protect the health and well-being of individuals and communities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022365471; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=365471.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/44702.

Mapping Heat Vulnerability of a Community Mental Health Center Population

Individuals with serious mental illness are vulnerable to extreme heat due to biological, social, and place-based factors. We examine the spatial correlation of prevalence of individuals treated at a community mental health center to heat vulnerability. We applied a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to the catchment of the Connecticut Mental Health Center in New Haven, Connecticut. Geocoded addresses were mapped to correlate patient prevalence with heat vulnerability of census tracts. Census tracts closer to the city center had elevated vulnerability scores. Patient prevalence was positively correlated with HVI score (Pearson's r(44) = 0.67, p < 0.01). Statistical significance persists after correction for spatial autocorrelation (modified t-test p < 0.01). The study indicates that individuals treated at this community mental health center are more likely to live in census tracts with high heat vulnerability. Heat mapping strategies can help communicate risk and target resources at the local scale.

Regular physical activity across the lifespan to build resilience against rising global temperatures

Population aging, high prevalence of non-communicable diseases, physical inactivity, and rising global temperatures are some of the most pressing issues in public health of the current century. Such trends suggest that individuals increasingly less equipped to tolerate heat will be increasingly exposed to it, which from a public health perspective is alarming. Nonetheless, future impacts of extreme heat events will depend not only on the magnitude of climate change, but on our ability to adapt by becoming less sensitive and vulnerable. Although physical activity's role in mitigating climate change has received attention, its potential contribution to climate change adaptation and resilience remains largely unaddressed. Accordingly, in this viewpoint, we discuss how regular physical activity throughout life could have an important contribution to adapting to rising global temperatures, allowing to be better equipped to cope with heat-related health hazards and increasing individual and community resilience. This viewpoint constitutes a call for more research into the contribution that physical activity can have in adapting to rising global temperatures and, more broadly, to climate change.

Heat is associated with short-term increases in household food insecurity in 150 countries and this is mediated by income

Rising temperatures are expected to stall progress on food insecurity by reducing agricultural yields in the coming decades. But hot periods may also increase food insecurity within days when it gets too hot to work and earn an income, thus limiting households' capability to purchase food. Here I exploit variations in heat levels during a household survey spanning 150 countries in a quasi-natural experiment to show that particularly hot weeks are associated with higher chances of food insecurity among households (0.5767, 95% confidence interval 0.2958-0.8576, t = 4.024, d.f. = 427,816, P < 0.001). This association is mediated by reductions in income and health for households and the effects are stronger in countries with lower incomes and more agricultural or precarious forms of employment. The results highlight the importance of labour market disruptions for food insecurity and suggest integration of these concerns into heat action plans and food programmes.

"Mothers get really exhausted!" The lived experience of pregnancy in extreme heat: Qualitative findings from Kilifi, Kenya

Heat exposure in pregnancy is associated with a range of adverse health and wellbeing outcomes, yet research on the lived experience of pregnancy in high temperatures is lacking. We conducted qualitative research in 2021 in two communities in rural Kilifi County, Kenya, a tropical savannah area currently experiencing severe drought. Pregnant and postpartum women, their male spouses and mothers-in-law, community health volunteers, and local health and environment stakeholders were interviewed or participated in focus group discussions. Pregnant women described symptoms that are classically regarded as heat exhaustion, including dizziness, fatigue, dehydration, insomnia, and irritability. They interpreted heat-related tachycardia as signalling hypertension and reported observing more miscarriages and preterm births in the heat. Pregnancy is conceptualised locally as a 'normal' state of being, and women continue to perform physically demanding household chores in the heat, even when pregnant. Women reported little support from family members to reduce their workload at this time, reflecting their relative lack of autonomy within the household, but also potentially the 'normalisation' of heat in these communities. Climate change risk reduction strategies for pregnant women in low-resource settings need to be cognisant of local household gender dynamics that constrain women's capacity to avoid heat exposures.

Inequality in behavioural heat adaptation: an empirical study with mobility data from the transport system in New York City, NY, USA

BACKGROUND

Heat exposure, which can negatively affect human health and wellbeing, is heterogeneous within US cities. However, little is known about who can avoid heat stress by adjusting their everyday behaviour. We aimed to analyse the effect of ambient temperature on mobility, specifically subway (ie, the underground railway system) use, in New York City, NY, USA, during 2014-19.

METHODS

For this empirical study, subway use across New York City was measured with turnstile data from the New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2019. Passenger numbers were then aggregated to the zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) level. Daily observational climate data were obtained from the US National Weather Service between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2019. Socioeconomic data at the ZCTA level originated from the American Community Survey 2019. We extracted data on population age, ethnicity, commuting, employment, median household income, rent, and health-insurance coverage. We used a fixed-effects panel-regression model to assess the influence of temperature on subway use in New York City, which was the main outcome of our study.

FINDINGS

We obtained data for 438 subway stations across New York City. After data cleaning and preprocessing, the final aggregated data sample consisted of 238 508 instances of subway use in 1955 days across 6 years for 122 ZCTAs, with 168 days missing in the raw data and 67 days removed as outliers. The results of the fixed-effects panel-regression analysis showed a strong, non-linear effect of daily maximum temperature on subway use. Subway use was highest at 11·5°C and substantially decreased for temperatures that were colder and warmer than that, with reductions reaching 6·5% (95% CI 2·5-10·5) for the coldest temperature (ie, -6·5°C) and 10·5% (6·0-14·0) for the hottest temperature (ie, 34·5°C). Reductions differed between weekdays and weekends, when residents generally had more freedom to adjust their behaviour. Neighbourhoods that were at a socioeconomic disadvantage experienced smaller or no reductions in mobility in heat; mobility increased in neighbourhoods with beach access.

INTERPRETATION

Our study showed that temperature had a strong, non-linear effect on subway use, but the magnitude of the effect on subway use was heterogeneous across areas of the city on warm days. Weaker avoidance of heat stress correlated with less privilege, indicating compounding health risks. Everyday behavioural adaptation to heat is therefore an effect pathway that contributes to unequal heat effects and should be explored in future research.

FUNDING

The Volkswagen Foundation and the Werner Siemens Foundation.

A daily high-resolution (1 km) human thermal index collection over the North China Plain from 2003 to 2020

Human-perceived temperature (HPT) describes the joint effects of multiple climatic factors such as temperature and humidity. Extreme HPT events may reduce labor capacity and cause thermal discomfort and even mortality. These events are becoming more frequent and more intense under global warming, posing severe threats to human and natural systems worldwide, particularly in populated areas with intensive human activities, e.g., the North China Plain (NCP). Therefore, a fine-scale HPT dataset in both spatial and temporal dimensions is urgently needed. Here we construct a daily high-resolution (~1 km) human thermal index collection over NCP from 2003 to 2020 (HiTIC-NCP). This dataset contains 12 HPT indices and has high accuracy with averaged determination coefficient, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error of 0.987, 0.970 °C, and 1.292 °C, respectively. Moreover, it exhibits high spatiotemporal consistency with ground-level observations. The dataset provides a reference for human thermal environment and could facilitate studies such as natural hazards, regional climate change, and urban planning.

Analysis of compound health impacts of heatwave and COVID-19 in Korea from May to September in 2020

The number of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illnesses due to the co-occurrence of heatwaves and COVID-19 has been identified to estimate compound health impacts between two risks. We have analyzed data from historical years (2013-2019) to calculate the baseline values of the number of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illness patients from May to September using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model and compared them to data from 2020 in Korea. We also assessed the relative risk and absolute cumulative number of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illnesses in the summer of 2020 in Seoul, Daegu, and Gyeongnam region of Korea. In the Summer of 2020, Korea experienced 0.8% of non-accidental excess deaths, with the highest in August, and 46% of reduction was observed in heat-related throughout the study period, except in Daegu, where excess of heat-related illness occurred in August. The relative risk (RR) of non-accidental deaths at 33.1 °C, was 1.00 (CI 0.99-1.01) and 1.04 (CI 1.02-1.07) in 2013-2019 and 2020, respectively. The RR of heat-related illness at 33.1 °C, was 1.44 (CI 1.42-1.45) and 1.59 (CI 1.54-1.64) in 2013-2019 and 2020, respectively. The absolute cumulative trends of non-accidental deaths and heat-related illnesses were similar in the three regions, indicating increased non-accidental deaths and decreased heat-related illnesses at similar temperatures in 2020. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the fear of infection by the virus and the limited access to healthcare services led to changes in health-seeking behaviors. These results indicate social distancing could have had adverse impacts on other health conditions. A comprehensive health risk assessment is important when facing simultaneous risks, such as heatwaves and pandemics, in the implementation of effective countermeasures.

Analyzing the relationship between air temperature and respiratory morbidity in children and the elderly in Porto Alegre, Brazil, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between air temperature data against hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases of children (under five years of age) and the elderly (over 65) in subtropical Porto Alegre, Brazil, comparing outcomes for 3 sequential years, 2018-2020, pre- and post-COVID 19 pandemic. Meteorological and hospital admission (HA) data for Porto Alegre, marked by a Koeppen-Geiger's Cfa climate type with well-defined seasons, were used in the analyses. HA was obtained for respiratory diseases (J00-99, according to the International Classification of Diseases, ICD-10) from the Brazilian DATASUS (Unified Health System database). We performed correlation analysis between variables (HA versus air temperature and heat stress) in order to identify existing relationships and lag effects (between meteorological condition and morbidity). Relative risk (RR) was also obtained for the two age groups during the three years. Results showed that the pandemic year disrupted observed patterns of association between analyzed variables, with either very low or non-existent correlations.

Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of indoor and outdoor temperatures and their relationship with thermal sensation from a global perspective

People spend most of their time indoors. However, indoor temperature and individual thermal exposure are generally not considered in epidemiological studies of temperature and health. Based on the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) RP-884 Database, the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II and the Chinese Thermal Comfort Database, this study first explored the relationship between outdoor temperature, indoor temperature and thermal sensation from a global perspective. Moreover, the potential influence of spatiotemporal heterogeneity on health studies was explored. A breakpoint was found at approximately 11.5 °C in the segmented regression of indoor and outdoor temperature, and the slope of the curve was greater when outdoor temperature was above the breakpoint (n = 67,896). Based on multi-group propensity score matching (PSM) and generalizedadditivemodels (GAM), spatiotemporal heterogeneity was found in the relationship between indoor and outdoor temperatures after adjusting for building type and year. Furthermore, the relationship between indoor temperature and thermal sensation was influenced by the outdoor temperature. This study highlights the importance of considering indoor temperature or individual thermal exposure in temperature-related health studies.