N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, left ventricular mass, and incident heart failure: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

AI-enabled Left Atrial Volumetry in Cardiac CT Scans Improves CHARGE-AF and Outperforms NT-ProBNP for Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in Asymptomatic Individuals: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scans contain actionable information beyond CAC scores that is not currently reported.

Methods

We have applied artificial intelligence-enabled automated cardiac chambers volumetry to CAC scans (AI-CAC), taking on average 21 seconds per CAC scan, to 5535 asymptomatic individuals (52.2% women, ages 45-84) that were previously obtained for CAC scoring in the baseline examination (2000-2002) of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We used the 5-year outcomes data for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and compared the time-dependent AUC of AI-CAC LA volume with known predictors of AF, the CHARGE-AF Risk Score and NT-proBNP (BNP). The mean follow-up time to an AF event was 2.9±1.4 years.

Results

At 1,2,3,4, and 5 years follow-up 36, 77, 123, 182, and 236 cases of AF were identified, respectively. The AUC for AI-CAC LA volume was significantly higher than CHARGE-AF or BNP at year 1 (0.836, 0.742, 0.742), year 2 (0.842, 0.807,0.772), and year 3 (0.811, 0.785, 0.745) (p<0.02), but similar for year 4 (0.785, 0.769, 0.725) and year 5 (0.781, 0.767, 0.734) respectively (p>0.05). AI-CAC LA volume significantly improved the continuous Net Reclassification Index for prediction of AF over years 1-5 when added to CAC score (0.74, 0.49, 0.53, 0.39, 0.44), CHARGE-AF Risk Score (0.60, 0.28, 0.32, 0.19, 0.24), and BNP (0.68, 0.44, 0.42, 0.30, 0.37) respectively (p<0.01).

Conclusion

AI-CAC LA volume enabled prediction of AF as early as one year and significantly improved on risk classification of CHARGE-AF Risk Score and BNP.

Association between Cardiovascular Response and Inflammatory Cytokines in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Cardiovascular disease is an essential comorbidity in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and represents an independent risk factor for increased mortality. Therefore, careful monitoring of cardiovascular disease is crucial in the healthcare of NSCLC patients. Inflammatory factors have previously been associated with myocardial damage in NSCLC patients, but it remains unclear whether serum inflammatory factors can be utilized to assess the cardiovascular health status in NSCLC patients. A total of 118 NSCLC patients were enrolled in this cross-sectional study, and their baseline data were collected through a hospital electronic medical record system. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure the serum levels of leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF), interleukin (IL)-18, IL-1β, transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), and connective tissue growth factor (CTGF). Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS software. Multivariate and ordinal logistic regression models were constructed. The data revealed an increased serum level of LIF in the group using tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI)-targeted drugs compared to non-users (p < 0.001). Furthermore, serum TGF-β1 (area under the curve, AUC: 0.616) and cardiac troponin T (cTnT) (AUC: 0.720) levels were clinically evaluated and found to be correlated with pre-clinical cardiovascular injury in NSCLC patients. Notably, the serum levels of cTnT and TGF-β1 were found to indicate the extent of pre-clinical cardiovascular injury in NSCLC patients. In conclusion, the results suggest that serum LIF, as well as TGFβ1 together with cTnT, are potential serum biomarkers for the assessment of cardiovascular status in NSCLC patients. These findings offer novel insights into the assessment of cardiovascular health and underscore the importance of monitoring cardiovascular health in the management of NSCLC patients.

The association of circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with incident heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels are often elevated in heart failure (HF), although this has not been assessed using a longitudinal study design. Therefore, we investigated the association between baseline plasma FGF21 levels and incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

METHODS

A total of 5408 participants, free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease, were included in the analysis, of which 342 developed HF over a median follow-up period of 16.7 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed and the additive value of FGF21 in the performance of risk prediction over other well-established cardiovascular biomarkers was assessed.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 62.6 years with 47.6 % male. Regression spline analysis demonstrated a significant association of FGF21 levels with incident HF among participants with FGF21 levels ≥239.0 pg/mL (hazard ratio = 1.84 [95 % confidence interval 1.21, 2.80] per SD increase in ln-transformed levels) after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers, but not in participants with FGF21 levels <239.0 pg/mL (p for heterogeneity = 0.004). Among participants with FGF21 levels ≥239.0 pg/mL, FGF21 levels were associated with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR [95 % CI] = 2.57 [1.51, 4.37]), but not HF with reduced ejection fraction.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study suggests baseline FGF21 levels could predict the development of incident HF with preserved ejection fraction, among participants with elevated FGF21 levels at baseline. This study may suggest a pathophysiological role of FGF21 resistance in HF with preserved ejection fraction.

Biomarker prognostication across Universal Definition of Heart Failure stages

AIM

The Universal Definition of Heart Failure (UDHF) provides a framework for staging risk for HF events. It is not clear whether prognostic biomarkers have different meaning across UDHF stages. We sought to evaluate performance of biomarkers to predict HF events among high-risk patients undergoing coronary and/or peripheral angiography categorized into UDHF stages.

METHODS

One thousand two hundred thirty-five individuals underwent coronary and/or peripheral angiography were enrolled. Study participants were categorized into UDHF Stage A (at risk), Stage B (pre-HF), and Stage C or D (HF, including end stage) and grouped into Stage A/B and C/D. Biomarkers and clinical variables were used to develop prognostic models. Other measures examined included total HF hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Over a median of 3.67 years of follow-up, 155 cardiovascular (CV) deaths occurred, and 299 patients were hospitalized with acute HF. In patients with Stage A/B, galectin-3 (HR = 1.52, P = 0.03), endothelin-1 (HR = 2.16, P = 0.001), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; HR = 1.43, P < 0.001) were associated with incident CV death/HF hospitalization. In Stage C/D, NT-proBNP (HR = 1.26, P = 0.006), soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR; HR = 1.57, P = 0.007) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; HR = 1.15, P = 0.01) were associated with these outcomes. Higher biomarker concentrations were associated with greater total burden of HF events in Stages A/B and C/D.

CONCLUSIONS

Among higher risk individuals undergoing angiographic procedures, different biomarkers improve risk stratification in different UDHF stages of HF. More precise prognostication may offer a window of opportunity to initiate targeted preventive measures.

Peri-event plasma PCSK9 and hsCRP after an acute myocardial infarction correlate with early deterioration of left ventricular ejection fraction: a cohort study

Background

It is important to identify patients at increased risk of worsening of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) after a myocardial infarction (MI). We aimed to identify the association of various potential biomarkers with LVEF impairment after an MI in South American patients.

Methods

We studied adult patients admitted to a University Hospital and diagnosed with an acute MI. Plasma concentrations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and heart-type fatty-acid-binding protein (FABP3) were determined in samples drawn shortly after the event. Participants had a follow-up visit at least 45 days after the event. The primary endpoint was defined as any decline in LVEF at follow-up relative to baseline.

Results

The study included 106 patients (77.4% men, 22.6% women), mean age was 64.1, mean baseline LVEF was 56.6, 19% had a prior MI. We obtained a follow-up evaluation in 100 (94.4%) of participants, mean follow-up time was 163 days. There was a significant correlation between baseline PCSK9 and hsCRP (r = 0.39, p < 0.001). Baseline hsCRP concentrations were higher in patients who developed the endpoint than in those who did not (32.1 versus 21.2 mg/L, p = 0.066). After multivariate adjustment, baseline PCSK9, male sex and age were significantly associated with impairment in LVEF. The absolute change in LVEF was inversely correlated with baseline hsCRP (standardized coefficient = − 0.246, p = 0.004).

Conclusion

High plasma levels of PCSK9 and hsCRP were associated with early decreases in LVEF after an MI in Latin American patients.

Resistin and risks of incident heart failure subtypes and cardiac fibrosis: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

AIMS

Resistin is a circulating inflammatory biomarker that is associated with cardiovascular disease. We investigated the associations of resistin and incident heart failure (HF) and its subtypes, as well as specific measures of subclinical HF (myocardial fibrosis and relevant biomarkers).

METHODS

We analysed data from 1968 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with measurements of plasma resistin levels at clinic visits from 2002 to 2005. Participants were subsequently followed for a median of 10.5 years for HF events. The associations between resistin levels and incident HF, HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Linear regression models assessed the associations between resistin levels and myocardial fibrosis from cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, as well as hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP.

RESULTS

The mean age of the cohort was 64.7 years, and 50.0% were female. Seventy-four participants (4%) developed incident HF during follow-up. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, gender, education level, race/ethnicity, and traditional risk factors, higher resistin levels were significantly associated with incident HF (HR 1.44, CI 1.18-1.75, P = 0.001) and HFrEF (HR 1.47, CI 1.07-2.02, P = 0.016), but not with HFpEF (HR 1.25, CI 0.89-1.75, P = 0.195). Resistin levels showed no significant associations with myocardial fibrosis, NT-proBNP, or hs-cTnT levels.

CONCLUSIONS

In a multi-ethnic cohort free of cardiovascular disease at baseline, elevated resistin levels were associated with incident HF, more prominently with incident HFrEF than HFpEF, but not with subclinical myocardial fibrosis or biomarkers of HF.

NT-pro B-type natriuretic peptide, early menopause, and incident heart failure in postmenopausal women of the ARIC study

OBJECTIVE

N-Terminal pro B-type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP), a biomarker of heart failure (HF) has been associated with early menopause. We evaluated the modifying role of early menopause on the association of NT-proBNP with incident HF, and separately for HF subtypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS

We included 4,352 postmenopausal women including 1,174 with early menopause, ages 63.5 ± 5.5 years, without prevalent HF at the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study Visit 4. Binary log-transformation was performed for NT-proBNP. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of NT-proBNP with incident HF, and separately for incident HFpEF and incident HFrEF, testing for effect modification by early menopause and adjusting for HF risk factors.

RESULTS

We observed 881 HF events over a mean follow-up of 16.5 years. The interaction terms of NT-proBNP and early menopause were not significant for incident HF (Pinteraction 0.95) and incident HFpEF (Pinteraction 0.17) but were significant for incident HFrEF (Pinteraction 0.03). The adjusted hazard ratios resulting from each doubling of NT-proBNP levels amongst women with and without early menopause were 1.33 (1.20-1.47) and 1.34 (1.24-1.44), respectively, for incident HF; 1.57 (1.34-1.86) and 1.38 (1.24-1.54), respectively, for incident HFpEF; and 1.68 (1.42-1.99) and 1.36 (1.22-1.52), respectively, for incident HFrEF.

CONCLUSIONS

The association of NT-proBNP with incident HFpEF is similar irrespective of early menopause status. However, the association of NT-proBNP with incident HFrEF is greater among women with early menopause when compared to those without early menopause.

Identification of patients at risk of new onset heart failure: Utilizing a large statewide health information exchange to train and validate a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND

New-onset heart failure (HF) is associated with poor prognosis and high healthcare utilization. Early identification of patients at increased risk incident-HF may allow for focused allocation of preventative care resources. Health information exchange (HIE) data span the entire spectrum of clinical care, but there are no HIE-based clinical decision support tools for diagnosis of incident-HF. We applied machine-learning methods to model the one-year risk of incident-HF from the Maine statewide-HIE.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included subjects aged ≥ 40 years without prior HF ICD9/10 codes during a three-year period from 2015 to 2018, and incident-HF defined as assignment of two outpatient or one inpatient code in a year. A tree-boosting algorithm was used to model the probability of incident-HF in year two from data collected in year one, and then validated in year three. 5,668 of 521,347 patients (1.09%) developed incident-HF in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the model c-statistic was 0.824 and at a clinically predetermined risk threshold, 10% of patients identified by the model developed incident-HF and 29% of all incident-HF cases in the state of Maine were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Utilizing machine learning modeling techniques on passively collected clinical HIE data, we developed and validated an incident-HF prediction tool that performs on par with other models that require proactively collected clinical data. Our algorithm could be integrated into other HIEs to leverage the EMR resources to provide individuals, systems, and payors with a risk stratification tool to allow for targeted resource allocation to reduce incident-HF disease burden on individuals and health care systems.

Associations of cardiac injury biomarkers with risk of peripheral artery disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

INTRODUCTION

We investigated the associations of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels with risk of developing clinical peripheral artery disease (PAD) or a low ankle-brachial index (ABI).

METHODS

Hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were measured in 6692 and 5458 participants respectively without baseline PAD between 2000 and 2002 in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. A significant number also had repeat biomarker measurement between 2004 and 2005. Incident clinical PAD was ascertained through 2017. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI <0.9 and decline of ≥0.15 from baseline, was assessed among 5920 eligible individuals who had an ABI >0.9 at baseline and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression modeling were used to determine the association of these biomarkers with clinical PAD and low ABI, respectively.

RESULTS

Overall, 121 clinical PAD and 118 low ABI events occurred. Adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, each log unit increment in hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP was associated with a 30% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 1.6) and 50% (HR) 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) higher risk of clinical PAD respectively. No significant associations were observed for incident low ABI. Change in these biomarkers was not associated with either of the PAD outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT are independently associated with the development of clinical PAD. Further study should determine whether these biomarkers can help to better identify those at higher risk for PAD.

B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Is Associated with Indices of Left Ventricular Dysfunction in Healthy Subjects from the General Population: The Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study

BACKGROUND

Concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) reflect myocardial distension and stress, and are associated with poor prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, we hypothesized that concentrations of BNP would be associated with indices of adverse left ventricular (LV) remodeling and early stages of LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction in healthy participants from the general population.

METHODS

We measured BNP in 1757 women and 1677 men free from known coronary heart disease participating in the prospective observational Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study. All study participants underwent extensive cardiovascular phenotyping at baseline, including detailed echocardiography with assessment of indexed LV mass (LVMI), diastolic [tissue Doppler e', E/e' ratio, indexed left atrial volume (LAVI), maximal tricuspid regurgitation velocity (TRVmax), and E/A ratio], and systolic [global longitudinal strain (GLS) and LV ejection fraction (LVEF)] function.

RESULTS

Study participants with the highest BNP concentrations had higher GLS, LVMI, e', E/e' ratio, LAVI, TRVmax, and E/A ratio. In adjusted analyses, both GLS and LVEF exhibited significant nonlinear associations with BNP, with reduced LV systolic function observed in both the low and high concentration range of BNP.

CONCLUSIONS

In healthy participants recruited from the general population, concentrations of BNP exhibit nonlinear associations with LV systolic function, and both low and high concentrations are associated with reduced LV systolic function. This supports the notion that natriuretic peptides are beneficial and elicit cardioprotective effects, and may have important implications for the interpretation of BNP measurements in the general population.

Association of Longitudinal Changes in NT-proBNP With Changes in Left Atrial Volume and Function: MESA

BACKGROUND

The mechanism of left atrial (LA) remodeling is poorly understood. The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate whether changes in NT-proBNP levels relate to alterations of LA structure and function over time in a multiethnic population.

METHODS

From the prospective cohort study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, our analysis included 1,838 participants who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at the baseline and 10-year examinations, had NT-proBNP levels available at both time points, and did not develop heart failure, myocardial infarction, and/or atrial fibrillation. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyze the association between NT-proBNP level (log-transformed) at the 2 time points and change in LA volumes, LA emptying fractions (total, active, and passive), and LA longitudinal strain. Log NT-proBNP was categorized into Low-Low (N = 681), Low-High (N = 238), High-Low (N = 237), and High-High (N = 682) based on the median value at both time points.

RESULTS

With the Low-Low group as the reference group, the High-High group experienced a greater increase in LA maximum and minimum indexed volumes: 3.1 ml/m2 (95% confidence interval 1.98, 4.20) and 2.7 ml/m2 (1.89, 3.51), respectively. The High-High group also experienced a greater decrease in LA total, passive, active emptying fraction, and longitudinal strain: -3.3% (-4.46, -2.11), -0.9% (-1.80, -0.02), -4.2% (-5.55, -2.76), and -2.3% (-3.80, -0.72), respectively. The Low-High group had similar associations, but the effect sizes were not as high.

CONCLUSIONS

Adverse LA remodeling over 10 years of follow-up strongly correlates with prolonged elevated levels of intracardiac stress, as assessed by NT-proBNP levels.

Association of Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide With Cardiac Magnetic Resonance-Measured Global and Regional Cardiac Function and Structure Over 10 Years: The MESA Study

Background NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) is widely used to diagnose and manage patients with heart failure. We aimed to investigate associations between NT-proBNP levels and development of global and regional myocardial impairment, dyssynchrony, and risk of developing myocardial scar over time. Methods and Results We included 2416 adults (45-84 years) without baseline clinical cardiovascular disease from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). NT-proBNP was assessed at baseline (2000-2002). Cardiac magnetic resonance-measured left ventricular parameters were assessed at baseline and year 10 (2010-2012). Tagged cardiac magnetic resonance and myocardial dyssynchrony were assessed. We used linear and logistic regression models to study the relationships between quartiles of NT-proBNP levels and outcome variables. Left ventricular parameters decreased over time. After 10-year follow-up and adjusting for cardiovascular disease risk factors, people in the highest quartile had significantly greater decline in left ventricular ejection fraction (-1.60%; 95% CI, -2.26 to -0.94; P<0.01) and smaller decline in left ventricular end systolic volume index (-0.47 mL/m2; 95% CI, -1.18 to 0.23; P<0.01) compared with those in the lowest quartile. Individuals in the highest quartile had more severe risk factor adjusted global, mid, and apical regional dyssynchrony compared with those in the lowest, second, and third quartiles (all P-trend<0.05). Compared with the lowest-quartile group, the adjusted odds ratios for having myocardial scar was 1.3 (95% CI, 0.7-2.2) for quartile 2; 1.2 (95% CI, 0.6-2.3) for quartile 3; and 2.7 (95% CI, 1.4-5.5) for quartile 4 (P-trend=0.012) for the total sample. Conclusions Among participants without baseline clinical cardiovascular disease, higher baseline NT-proBNP concentration was significantly associated with subclinical changes in developing myocardial dysfunction, more severe cardiac dyssynchrony, and higher odds of having myocardial scar over a 10-year period independent of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors.

Circulating Biomarkers for Cardiotoxicity Risk Prediction

OPINION STATEMENT

Improvements in cancer survival have led to the emergence of cardiovascular disease as an important determinant of adverse outcome in survivors. Cancer therapeutics-related cardiac dysfunction is the most well-known form of cardiotoxicity. However, newer cancer therapies bring a broader range of cardiotoxicities. The optimal method to identify patients at risk of these complications is unclear, but circulating biomarkers comprise one possible approach. Troponins and natriuretic peptides have garnered the broadest evidence base for cardiotoxicity risk prediction, but other markers are being investigated. In this review, we explore evidence for circulating biomarkers in cardiotoxicity prediction associated with cancer therapies.

Cyclic guanosine monophosphate and 10-year change in left ventricular mass: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Purpose: Cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) is a second messenger for natriuretic peptide (NP) and nitric oxide pathways; its enhancement a target for heart failure and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We evaluated whether plasma cGMP was associated with change in left ventricular mass (LVM) among individuals free of CVD and if this differed by sex.Methods and Results: In 611 men and 612 women aged 45-84 years with plasma cGMP measured at baseline and cardiac MRI performed at baseline and 10 years later, we tested associations of cGMP [log-transformed, per 1 SD increment] with LVM, adjusting for CVD risk factors and N-terminal pro-B-type-NP (NT-proBNP). Participants had mean (SD) age of 63.1(8.5) years and cGMP 4.8(2.6) pmol/mL. Cross-sectionally, higher cGMP was associated with lesser LVM, non-lin- early. In contrast, longitudinally, higher cGMP was associated with increase in LVM [1.70g (0.61, 2.78)] over 10 years. Higher cGMP was associated with greater LVM change in men [2.68g (1.57, 3.79)] but not women [0.24g ((-0.92, 1.39); p-interaction < 0.001].Conclusion: In conclusion, in a community-based cohort, higher cGMP levels were associated with increase in LVM over 10 years independent of CVD risk factors and NT-proBNP in men, perhaps reflecting compensatory changes. Further studies are needed to understand mechanistic roles of cGMP in LV remodelling and associated sex differences.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Gender-Related Differences in Heart Failure Biomarkers

Important differences in comorbidities and clinical characteristics exist between women and men with heart failure (HF). In particular, differences in the kinetics of biological circulating biomarkers—a critical component of cardiovascular care—are highly relevant. Most circulating HF biomarkers are assessed daily by clinicians without taking sex into account, despite the multiple gender-related differences observed in plasma concentrations. Even in health, compared to men, women tend to exhibit higher levels of natriuretic peptides and galectin-3 and lower levels of cardiac troponins and the cardiac stress marker, soluble ST2. Many biological factors can provide a reliable explanation for these differences, like body composition, fat distribution, or menopausal status. Notwithstanding, these sex-specific differences in biomarker levels do not reflect different pathobiological mechanisms in HF between women and men, and they do not necessarily imply a need to use different diagnostic cut-off levels in clinical practice. To date, the sex-specific prognostic value of HF biomarkers for risk stratification is an unresolved issue that future research must elucidate. This review outlines current evidence regarding gender-related differences in circulating biomarkers widely used in HF, the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying these differences, and their clinical relevance.

NT -pro BNP as a Mediator of the Racial Difference in Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure

Background

Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation (AF). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure (CHF). N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF, and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences.

Methods and Results

We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT‐proBNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT‐proBNP. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT‐proBNP (CHS: 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI, 29–53; ARIC: 39% higher; 95% CI, 33–46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks (CHS: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.31–1.93; ARIC: hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.57–2.27). NT‐proBNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk (CHS: 36.2%; 95% CI, 23.2–69.2%; ARIC: 24.6%; 95% CI, 14.8–39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05–1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.94–1.23), CHF‐related mediation analyses were not performed.

Conclusions

A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT‐proBNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed.

See Editorial by Richards

Inflammation and Circulating Natriuretic Peptide Levels

BACKGROUND

NPs (natriuretic peptides) are cardiac-derived hormones that promote natriuresis, diuresis, and vasodilation. Preclinical evidence suggests that nonhemodynamic triggers for NP release exist, with a few studies implicating inflammatory stimuli. We examined the association between inflammation and NP levels in humans.

METHODS

The associations between inflammation and NP levels were examined in 3 independent studies. First, in 5481 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants, the cross-sectional (exam 1) and longitudinal (exams 1 to 3) associations between circulating IL6 (interleukin-6) and NT-proBNP (N terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide) levels were examined in multivariable-adjusted models. Second, in a prospective study of 115 healthy individuals, changes in NP levels were quantified following exposure to lipopolysaccharide as an inflammatory stimulus. Third, in 13 435 hospitalized patients, the association between acute inflammatory conditions and circulating NP levels was assessed using multivariable-adjusted models.

RESULTS

At the baseline MESA exam, each 1-unit higher natural log IL6 was associated with 16% higher NT-proBNP level ([95% CI, 10%-22%]; P=0.002). Each 1-unit higher baseline natural log IL6 level also associated with 6% higher NT-proBNP level ([95% CI, 1%-11%]; P=0.02) at 4-year follow-up. In the lipopolysaccharide study, median NT-proBNP levels rose from 21 pg/mL pre-lipopolysaccharide to 54 pg/mL post-lipopolysaccharide, P<0.001. In the hospitalized patient study, acute inflammatory conditions were associated with 36% higher NP levels ([95% CI, 17%-60%]; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Inflammation appears to be associated with NP release. Interpretation of NP levels should therefore take into account inflammatory conditions.

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death

Background

Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality.

Methods and Results

In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population‐based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow‐up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population‐attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT‐proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all‐cause mortality risk.

Conclusions

Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.

Racial/ethnic differences in circulating natriuretic peptide levels: The Diabetes Prevention Program

Natriuretic peptides are cardiac-derived hormones that enhance insulin sensitivity and reduce fat accumulation. Low natriuretic peptide levels are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2); a condition with variable prevalence across racial/ethnic groups. Few studies have examined whether circulating natriuretic peptide levels and their response to preventive interventions for DM2 differ by race/ethnicity. The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) is a clinical trial (July 31, 1996- July 31, 2001) that randomized participants to preventive interventions for DM2. Using stored serum samples, we examined N-terminus pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels in 3,220 individuals (56% white; 19% African-American; 15% Hispanic; 5% American-Indian; 5% Asian). The influence of race/ethnicity on NT-proBNP concentrations at baseline and after two years of treatment with placebo, lifestyle, or metformin was examined with multivariable-adjusted regression. At baseline, NT-proBNP differed significantly by race (P < .001), with the lowest values in African-American individuals. Hispanic individuals also had lower baseline NT-proBNP levels compared with whites (P< .001), while NT-proBNP levels were similar between white, American-Indian, and Asian individuals. At two years of follow-up, NT-proBNP levels decreased in African-Americans in each of the DPP study arms, whereas they were stable or increased in the other racial/ethnic groups. In the DPP, African-American individuals had lower circulating NT-proBNP levels compared with individuals in other racial/ethnic groups at baseline and after two years of preventive interventions. Further studies should examine the cardio-metabolic implications of lower natriuretic peptide levels in African-Americans.

Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00004992

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2020 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports on the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2020 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, metrics to assess and monitor healthy diets, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, a focus on the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors, implementation strategies, and implications of the American Heart Association's 2020 Impact Goals.

RESULTS

Each of the 26 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, healthcare administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 and Heart Failure With Reduced Versus Preserved Ejection Fraction: MESA

Background

Higher fibroblast growth factor‐23 (FGF‐23) levels are associated with incident heart failure (HF) in MESA (the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). FGF‐23 is also associated with left ventricular hypertrophy. Whether the FGF‐23 association with HF is similar for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is not well established.

Methods and Results

We studied 6542 participants (mean age 62±10 years, 53% women, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate of 81±18 mL/min per 73 m²) from MESA who were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (2000–2002). HF events were ascertained by an adjudication committee for a median follow‐up of 12.1 years. We classified HF events as HFrEF (ejection fraction [EF] <50%) or HFpEF [EF] ≥50%) at the time of diagnosis. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to compute hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between baseline serum FGF‐23 and incident HFrEF and HFpEF. A total of 134 events were classified as HFpEF, 151 HFrEF, and 49 unknown EF. Following imputation, 149 were classified as HFpEF, 176 HFrEF, and 291 participants had HF (34 participants had HFpEF then HFrEF). In the fully adjusted model, higher FGF‐23 levels were associated with incident HFpEF but not with HFrEF (hazard ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval, 1.08–1.54) versus (hazard ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.84–1.29) for each 20 pg/mL higher serum FGF‐23 concentration.

Conclusions

FGF‐23 association with HF is driven by the association with HFpEF but not with HFrEF in a population‐based cohort. Further studies are needed to determine the pathological mechanisms mediating this association.

Premorbid levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and natriuretic peptide and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at the time of myocardial infarction (MI) are strong predictors of prognosis. However, whether their premorbid (before MI occurrence) levels are associated with prognosis after incident MI is unknown.

METHODS

In 1,054 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study with incident MI, we evaluated premorbid levels of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP measured on median 5.8 (interquartile interval 3.0-11.5 [mean 5.5]) years prior to incident MI and their associations with subsequent composite and individual outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI, heart failure, and stroke.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.0 years after MI, 801 participants developed the composite outcome. Both hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were independently associated with the composite outcome after incident MI. Among individual outcomes, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heart failure showed significant associations with both cardiac markers. Overall, NT-proBNP demonstrated a more evident relationship than hs-cTnT. Indeed, the addition of premorbid NT-proBNP alone, but not hs-cTnT alone, to conventional predictors at incident MI significantly improved risk prediction of the composite outcome after incident MI (Δc-statistic 0.013 [95% CI 0.005-0.022] from 0.691 with conventional predictors).

CONCLUSIONS

Premorbid levels of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP assessed on average 6 years prior to incident MI were associated with adverse outcomes after incident MI. These results further highlight the importance of cardiac health at an earlier stage of life.

Relation Between Cigarette Smoking and Heart Failure (from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

We studied the association between cigarette smoking and incident heart failure (HF) in a racially diverse US cohort. We included 6,792 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with information on cigarette smoking at baseline, characterized by status, intensity, burden, and time since quitting. Adjudicated outcomes included total incident HF cases and HF stratified by ejection fraction (EF) into HF with reduced EF (HFrEF; EF ≤ 40%) and preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%). We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and accounted for competing risk of each HF type. Mean age was 62 ± 10 years; 53% were women, 61% were nonwhite, and 13% were current smokers. A total of 279 incident HF cases occurred over a median follow-up of 12.2 years. The incidence rates of HFrEF and HFpEF were 2.2 and 1.9 cases per 1000 person-years, respectively. Current smoking was associated with higher risk of HF compared with never smoking (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36 to 3.09); this was similar for HFrEF (HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.27 to 5.25) and HFpEF (HR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.15 to 5.49). Former smoking was not significantly associated with HF (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.56). Smoking intensity, burden, and time since quitting did not provide additional information for HF risk after accounting for smoking status.

Racial differences in the association of NT-proBNP with risk of incident heart failure in REGARDS

BACKGROUND

Black individuals have lower natriuretic peptide levels and greater risk of heart failure (HF) than white individuals. Higher N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is associated with increased risk of incident HF, but little information is available in black individuals. We examined race-specific differences in 1) the association of NT-proBNP with incident HF and 2) the predictive ability of NT-proBNP for incident HF across body mass index (BMI) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories.

METHODS

In a prospective case-cohort study, baseline NT-proBNP was measured among 687 participants with incident HF and 2,923 (weighted 20,075) non-case randomly selected participants. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to assess the objectives of our study. Global Wald Chi-square score estimated from multivariable Cox models was used to assess predictive ability of NT-proBNP across BMI and eGFR categories.

RESULTS

In the multivariable model, a doubling of NT-proBNP concentration was associated with greater risk of incident HF among white individuals [hazard ratio (HR): 1.73; 95% CI: 1.55-1.94] than black individuals (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.34-1.70); Pinteraction by race = 0.024. Higher NT-proBNP was the strongest predictor of incident HF across all BMI and eGFR categories among white individuals. By contrast, among black individuals with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) or eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the predictive ability of NT-proBNP for incident HF was attenuated.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of the association of higher NT-proBNP with incident HF risk was greater among white individuals than black individuals. The diminished ability of NT-proBNP to predict the risk of HF in black population with obesity or impaired kidney function highlights the need of further investigations.

Association of Elevated NT-proBNP With Myocardial Fibrosis in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND

Serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is considered a marker that is expressed in response to myocardial strain and possibly fibrosis. However, the relationship to myocardial fibrosis in a community-based population is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The authors evaluated the relationship between cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) measures of fibrosis and NT-proBNP levels in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) study.

METHODS

A total of 1,334 participants (52% white, 23% black, 11% Chinese, 14% Hispanic, and 52% men with a mean age of 67.6 years) at 6 sites had both serum NT-proBNP measurements and CMR with T1 mapping of indices of fibrosis at 1.5 T. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and left ventricular (LV) mass were performed to examine the association of log NT-proBNP with CMR T1 mapping indices.

RESULTS

In the fully adjusted model, each 1-SD increment (0.44 pg/ml) of log NT-proBNP was associated with a 0.62% increment in extracellular volume fraction (p < 0.001), 0.011 increment in partition coefficient (p < 0.001), and 4.7-ms increment in native T1 (p = 0.001). Results remained unchanged after excluding individuals with clinical cardiovascular disease or late gadolinium enhancement (n = 167), and after replacing LV mass by LV end-diastolic volume in the regression models.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated NT-proBNP is related to subclinical fibrosis in a community-based setting. (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]; NCT00005487).

Cardiovascular risk prediction in the elderly

Heart failure (HF) in the elderly, besides being a leading cause of mortality and morbidity, is rapidly increasing in prevalence with patients aged 65 and older accounting for more than 75% of heart failure hospitalizations. Elderly patients have historically been unrepresented in clinical HF trials and often present with multiple comorbidities, including frailty, depression, nutritional, functional and cognitive impairments. Additionally, pharmacologic challenges such as adherence to therapy, polypharmacy, altered drug pharmacokinetics and/or renal derangements make them less likely to receive guideline-directed medical therapies for HF. Recognition of these various interrelated domains is key and should prompt a multidisciplinary, holistic management approach so as to optimize prognosis in this vulnerable subset of the population.

Association of elevated circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with prevalent and incident metabolic syndrome: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) plays an important role in glucose and lipid metabolism. We have investigated the relationship of plasma FGF21 levels with both prevalent and incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) in participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

METHODS

5783 participants from four major ethnic groups (non-Hispanic white, African American, Hispanic American, and Chinese American) were included in the cross-sectional analysis. Longitudinal analysis involved 3479 participants without MetS at baseline, of whom 1100 participants developed incident MetS over 9.2 years.

RESULTS

Elevated FGF21 levels were found in participants with prevalent MetS (median [interquartile range] = 189.4 [114.4-302.1] vs. 123.7 [65.9-210.3] pg/mL, p < 0.001) or incident MetS (145.6 [84.9-240.8] vs 112.0 [57.0-194.5] pg/mL, p < 0.001), compared to those without. After adjusting for baseline demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, as well as cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers, and compared to the lowest quartile, the highest FGF21 quartile was associated with prevalent MetS (odds ratio 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.30-3.40, p < 0.001). Among participants without MetS at baseline, the highest FGF21 quartile was associated with higher risk of incident MetS (hazards ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.46-2.12, p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained when assessing ln-transformed FGF21 levels. Overall, no significant interaction was found with age, sex, and race/ethnicity for both prevalent and incident MetS.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher FGF21 levels significantly predict the development of MetS in an ethnically diverse population followed long term. Further studies are needed to confirm the potential role of FGF21 as a biomarker for MetS.

Sex Hormones and Change in N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Levels: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Context

Sex hormones may influence sex differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a predictor of CVD, is higher in women than men, which may relate to sex hormones.

Objective

To evaluate whether total testosterone (T), bioavailable T, free T, estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), and SHBG are associated with NT-proBNP.

Design

Cohort study.

Participants

Cross-sectional sample included 2371 postmenopausal women and 2688 men free of CVD, of which 2041 women and 2348 men were included longitudinally.

Main Outcome Measures

NT-proBNP at baseline (2000 to 2002) and one or more repeat NT-proBNPs (through 2012). Analyses adjusted for CVD risk factors.

Results

Women had higher NT-proBNP than men (median 79.9 vs 38.5 pg/mL). Cross-sectionally, higher bioavailable T, free T, DHEA, and lower SHBG levels were independently associated with lower NT-proBNP among both women and men (all P < 0.05). Higher total T in women and estradiol in men were also associated with lower NT-proBNP (both P < 0.05). Longitudinally, in women, higher total T, bioavailable T, free T, DHEA, and lower estradiol and SHBG were associated with greater 10-year increase in NT-proBNP (all P < 0.05). In men, higher free T and estradiol were associated with greater NT-proBNP increase (both P < 0.05).

Conclusions

A more androgenic sex hormone pattern was inversely associated with NT-proBNP cross-sectionally and may contribute to sex differences in NT-proBNP. Longitudinally, a more androgenic sex hormone pattern was associated with greater increase in NT-proBNP in women, which may reflect a mechanism for CVD risk after menopause.

Biomarkers of Key Biological Pathways in CVD

This review provides background on the laboratory design for MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) as well as the approach used in MESA to select biomarkers for measurement. The research related to the multitude of circulating and urinary biomarkers of inflammation and other novel and emerging biological pathways in MESA is summarized by domain, or pathway, represented by the biomarker. The contributions of MESA biomarkers to our knowledge of these key pathways in the development and progression of atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, and pulmonary disease are highlighted, as are the contributions of MESA to recommendations for clinical use of several of these biomarkers. In addition, contributions of MESA to multicohort genomics consortia and current collaborations in transomics and metabolomics are noted.

Phenotyping COPD exacerbations using imaging and blood-based biomarkers

Rationale

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are caused by a variety of different etiologic agents. Our aim was to phenotype COPD exacerbations using imaging (chest X-ray [CXR] and computed tomography [CT]) and to determine the possible role of the blood tests (C-reactive protein [CRP], the N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]) as diagnostic biomarkers.

Materials and methods

Subjects who were hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AECOPD and who had had CXRs, CT scans, and blood collection for CRP and NT-proBNP were assessed in this study. Radiologist blinded to the clinical and laboratory characteristics of the subjects interpreted their CXRs and CT images. ANOVA and Spearman’s correlation were performed to test for associations between these imaging parameters and the blood-based biomarkers NT-proBNP and CRP; logistic regression models were used to assess the performance of these biomarkers in predicting the radiological parameters.

Results

A total of 309 subjects were examined for this study. Subjects had a mean age of 65.6±11.1 years, 66.7% of them were males, and 62.4% were current smokers, with a mean FEV₁ 54.4%±21.5% of predicted. Blood NT-proBNP concentrations were associated with cardiac enlargement (area under the curve [AUC] =0.72, P<0.001), pulmonary edema (AUC =0.63, P=0.009), and pleural effusion on CXR (AUC =0.64, P=0.01); whereas on CT images, NT-proBNP concentrations were associated with pleural effusion (AUC =0.71, P=0.002). Serum CRP concentrations, on the other hand, were associated with consolidation on CT images (AUC =0.75, P<0.001), ground glass opacities (AUC =0.64, P=0.028), and pleural effusion (AUC =0.72, P<0.001) on CT images. A serum CRP sensitivity-oriented cutoff point of 11.5 mg/L was selected for the presence of consolidation on CT images in subjects admitted as cases of AECOPD, which has a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 53% (P<0.001).

Conclusion

Elevated CRP may indicate the presence of pneumonia, while elevated NT-proBNP may indicate cardiac dysfunction. These readily available blood-based biomarkers may provide more accurate phenotyping of AECOPD and enable the discovery of more precise therapies.

The relationship of circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with incident atrial fibrillation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Elevated circulating levels of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) are associated with multiple cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and incident events. Previous small cross-sectional studies, mainly in Chinese populations, have suggested FGF21 may play a role in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). We therefore investigated the relationship of FGF21 levels with incident AF in participants free of clinically apparent CVD at baseline in a large, multi-ethnic cohort.

METHODS

A total of 5729 participants of four major ethnic groups (Caucasian, African American, Hispanic American, and Chinese American) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), who were free of AF and had plasma FGF21 levels measured by ELISA at the baseline exam, were included in the analysis. Participants were followed up for incident AF over a median period of 12.9 years. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used.

RESULTS

Among the 5729 participants, 778 participants developed incident AF. Participants with incident AF had significantly higher baseline FGF21 levels than those without incident AF (median = 166.0 and 142.8 pg/mL, p < 0.001). After adjusting for possible confounders, including demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors, traditional CVD risk factors and circulating inflammatory markers, higher baseline FGF21 levels did not predict incident AF over the follow up period. There was no effect modification by sex or ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline FGF21 levels were not associated with the development of AF in an ethnically diverse population followed long-term. Our findings do not support an important role of FGF21 in AF development.

Differences in Natriuretic Peptide Levels by Race/Ethnicity (From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Natriuretic peptides (NP) are cardiac-derived hormones with favorable cardiometabolic actions. Low NP levels are associated with increased risks of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, conditions with variable prevalence by race and ethnicity. Heritable factors underlie a significant proportion of the interindividual variation in NP concentrations, but the specific influences of race and ancestry are unknown. In 5597 individuals (40% white, 24% black, 23% Hispanic, and 13% Chinese) without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, multivariable linear regression and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate differences in serum N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels according to, ethnicity, and ancestry. Ancestry was determined using genetic ancestry informative markers. NT-proBNP concentrations differed significantly by race and ethnicity (black, median 43 pg/ml [interquartile range 17 to 94], Chinese 43 [17 to 90], Hispanic 53 [23 to 107], white 68 [34 to 136]; p = 0.0001). In multivariable models, NT-proBNP was 44% lower (95% confidence interval -48 to -40) in black and 46% lower (-50 to -41) in Chinese, compared with white individuals. Hispanic individuals had intermediate concentrations. Self-identified blacks and Hispanics were the most genetically admixed. Among self-identified black individuals, a 20% increase in genetic European ancestry was associated with 12% higher (1% to 23%) NT-proBNP. Among Hispanic individuals, genetic European and African ancestry were positively and negatively associated with NT-proBNP levels, respectively. In conclusion, NT-proBNP levels differ according to race and ethnicity, with the lowest concentrations in black and Chinese individuals. Racial and ethnic differences in NT-proBNP may have a genetic basis, with European and African ancestry associated with higher and lower NT-proBNP concentrations, respectively.

HIV Infection and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases Beyond Coronary Artery Disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) increasingly afflicts people living with HIV (PLWH) in the contemporary era of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most widely studied cardiovascular problem in PLWH; however, less is known about other clinically relevant subtypes of CVD such as heart failure (HF), cerebrovascular disease, sudden cardiac death, pericardial diseases, and pulmonary hypertension. This paper reviews evidence of other subtypes of CVD as emerging issues in the post-ART era.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies have shown that PLWH have higher risk of HF as well as subclinical impairment of left ventricular (LV) mechanics (systolic and diastolic dysfunction) and myocardial abnormalities (fibrosis and steatosis). The underlying mechanisms, however, are not well-understood. A few studies have also shown higher rates of atrial fibrillation and sudden cardiac death in PLWH. Ischemic stroke is the most common stroke type in the post-ART era, with underlying mechanisms like those identified in CAD: chronic inflammation and associated vasculopathy. Studies of great vessels (carotid artery and aorta) and peripheral arterial disease show heterogeneous results. Small subclinical pericardial effusions are common in PLWH in post-ART era. Pulmonary hypertension continues to be an underdiagnosed and potentially fatal complication of HIV infection. PLWH remain at higher risk for all types of CVD including heart failure, stroke, and arrhythmias in the post-ART era. Chronic inflammation may play an important role in this increased risk. More studies are needed to further elucidate the extent of non-coronary CVD in PLWH and the underlying mechanisms for them.

Predictors of left ventricular remodeling after ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Adverse left ventricular (LV) remodeling after acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is associated with morbidity and mortality. We studied clinical, biochemical and angiographic determinants of LV end diastolic volume index (LVEDVi), end systolic volume index (LVESVi) and mass index (LVMi) as global LV remodeling parameters 4 months after STEMI, as well as end diastolic wall thickness (EDWT) and end systolic wall thickness (ESWT) of the non-infarcted myocardium, as compensatory remote LV remodeling parameters. Data was collected in 271 patients participating in the GIPS-III trial, presenting with a first STEMI. Laboratory measures were collected at baseline, 2 weeks, and 6–8 weeks. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) was performed 4 months after STEMI. Linear regression analyses were performed to determine predictors. At baseline, patients were 21% female, median age was 58 years. At 4 months, mean LV ejection fraction (LVEF) was 54 ± 9%, mean infarct size was 9.0 ± 7.9% of LVM. Strongest univariate predictors (all p < 0.001) were peak Troponin T for LVEDVi (R² = 0.26), peak CK-MB for LVESVi (R² = 0.41), NT-proBNP at 2 weeks for LVMi (R² = 0.24), body surface area for EDWT (R² = 0.32), and weight for ESWT (R² = 0.29). After multivariable analysis, cardiac biomarkers remained the strongest predictors of LVMi, LVEDVi and LVESVi. NT-proBNP but none of the acute cardiac injury biomarkers were associated with remote LV wall thickness. Our analyses illustrate the value of cardiac specific biochemical biomarkers in predicting global LV remodeling after STEMI. We found no evidence for a hypertrophic response of the non-infarcted myocardium.

Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance

BACKGROUND

Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was < 10 in 13 models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P < .001) and sample size (P = .007).

CONCLUSIONS

There is an abundance of HF risk prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution.

High-Sensitive Cardiac Troponin T as an Early Biochemical Signature for Clinical and Subclinical Heart Failure: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

BACKGROUND

Although small elevations of high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) are associated with incident heart failure (HF) in the general population, the underlying mechanisms are not well defined. Evaluating the association of hs-cTnT with replacement fibrosis and progression of structural heart disease before symptoms is fundamental to understanding the potential of this biomarker in a HF prevention strategy.

METHODS

We measured hs-cTnT at baseline among 4986 participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a cohort initially free of overt cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed at baseline. Repeat cardiac magnetic resonance was performed 10 years later among 2831 participants who remained free of interim CVD events; of these, 1723 received gadolinium-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance for characterization of replacement fibrosis by late gadolinium enhancement. Progression of subclinical CVD was defined by 10-year change in left ventricular structure and function. Associations of hs-cTnT with incident HF, CV-related mortality, and coronary heart disease were estimated using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Late gadolinium enhancement for replacement fibrosis was detectable in 6.3% participants without interim CVD events by follow-up cardiac magnetic resonance. A graded association was observed between higher baseline hs-cTnT categories and late gadolinium enhancement (≥7.42 ng/L versus <limit of detection [<3 ng/L]; adjusted odds ratio, 2.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-5.94). Higher hs-cTnT was also associated with a greater probability of an increase in LV mass >12% (highest category versus <limit of detection; odds ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.07), but not with decline in left ventricular ejection fraction. The risk of incident HF was greater for higher hs-cTnT (≥8.81 ng/L versus <limit of detection; adjusted hazards ratio, 5.59; 95% CI, 2.97-10.68).

CONCLUSIONS

hs-cTnT levels are associated with replacement fibrosis and progressive changes in left ventricular structure in CVD-free adults, findings that may precede HF symptoms by years. Minor elevations of hs-cTnT may represent a biochemical signature of early subclinical cardiac disease, providing an opportunity for targeted preventive interventions.

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment.

METHODS

In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

FINDINGS

We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

INTERPRETATION

In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.

Impact of Race, Ethnicity, and Multimodality Biomarkers on the Incidence of New-Onset Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a prevalent condition with no established prevention or treatment strategies. Furthermore, the pathophysiology and predisposing risk factors for HFpEF are incompletely understood. Therefore, we sought to characterize the incidence and determinants of HFpEF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Our study included 6,781 MESA participants (White, Black, Chinese, and Hispanic men and women age 45 to 84 years, free of baseline cardiovascular disease). The primary end point was time to diagnosis of HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥45%). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to identify predictors of HFpEF. Over median follow-up of 11.2 years (10.6 to 11.7), 111 subjects developed HFpEF (cumulative incidence 1.7%). Incidence rates were similar across all races/ethnicities. Age (HR 2.3 [1.7 to 3.0]), hypertension (HR 1.8 [1.1 to 2.9]), diabetes (HR 2.3 [1.5 to 3.7]), body mass index (HR 1.4 [1.1 to 1.7]), left ventricular hypertrophy by electrocardiography (HR 4.3 [1.7 to 11.0]), interim myocardial infarction (HR 4.8 [2.7 to 8.6]), elevated N-terminal of the prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (HR 2.4 [1.5 to 4.0]), detectable troponin T (HR 4.5 [1.9 to 10.9]), and left ventricular mass index by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI; 1.3 [1.0 to 1.6]) were significant predictors of incident HFpEF. Worsening renal function, inflammatory markers, and coronary artery calcium were significant univariate but not multivariate predictors of HFpEF. Gender was neither a univariate nor multivariate predictor of HFpEF. In conclusion, we demonstrate several risk factors and biomarkers associated with incident HFpEF that were consistent across different racial/ethnic groups and may represent potential therapeutic targets for the prevention and treatment of HFpEF.

Association of menopause age and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Menopause age can affect the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of early menopause (menopause occurring before age 45 y) and menopause age with N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a potential risk marker of CVD and heart failure.

METHODS

Our cross-sectional study included 2,275 postmenopausal women, aged 45 to 85 years and without clinical CVD (2000-2002), from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants were classified as having or not having early menopause. NT-proBNP was log-transformed. Multivariable linear regression was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Five hundred sixty-one women had early menopause. The median (25th-75th percentiles) NT-proBNP value was 79.0 (41.1-151.6) pg/mL for all participants, 83.4 (41.4-164.9) pg/mL for women with early menopause, and 78.0 (40.8-148.3) pg/mL for women without early menopause. The mean (SD) age was 65 (10.1) and 65 (8.9) years for women with and without early menopause, respectively. No significant interactions between menopause age and ethnicity were observed. In multivariable analysis, early menopause was associated with a 10.7% increase in NT-proBNP levels, whereas each 1-year increase in menopause age was associated with a 0.7% decrease in NT-proBNP levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Early menopause is associated with greater NT-proBNP levels, whereas each 1-year increase in menopause age is associated with lower NT-proBNP levels, in postmenopausal women.

Serial measurement of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin T for cardiovascular disease risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND

N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin T (TnT) predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a variety of populations. Whether their predictive value varies by ethnicity is unknown. We sought to determine whether NT-proBNP and TnT improve prediction of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD, independent of CVD risk factors, in a multiethnic population; whether NT-proBNP improves prediction compared with the Framingham Risk Score or the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation; and whether a second NT-proBNP further improves prediction.

METHODS

Both NT-proBNP and TnT were measured in 5,592 MESA white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese participants (60% nonwhite; mean age 62.3 ± 10.3 years) in 2000 to 2002 and 2004 to 2005. We evaluated adjusted risk of incident CHD and CVD based on baseline and change in biomarker concentration.

RESULTS

Participants were followed up through 2011 and incurred 370 CVD events (232 CHD). Concentrations of NT-proBNP and TnT varied by ethnicity. Both NT-proBNP and TnT were associated with an increased risk of events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for CHD [95% CI] for fifth quintile vs other 4 quintiles of NT-proBNP, 2.03 [1.50-2.76]; HR for CHD for detectable vs undetectable TnT, 3.95 [2.29-6.81]). N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide improved risk prediction and classification compared with the Framingham Risk Score and the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation. Change in NT-proBNP was independently associated with events (HR for CHD per unit increase in ΔlogNT-proBNP, 1.95 [1.16-3.26]). None of the observed associations varied by ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Both NT-proBNP and TnT are predictors of incident CHD, independent of established risk factors and ethnicity, in a multiethnic population without known CVD. Change in NT-proBNP may add additional prognostic information.