Reverse Causality in Cardiovascular Epidemiological Research: More Common Than Imagined?

Longitudinal Patterns of Systolic Blood Pressure, Diastolic Blood Pressure, Cardiorespiratory Fitness, and Their Association With Dementia Risk: The HUNT Study

BACKGROUND

High blood pressure and poor cardiorespiratory fitness are independent risk factors for dementia. However, few studies have examined if combined longitudinal patterns of these modifiable risk factors are associated with dementia risk.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we used data from the population-based Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study, Norway. We applied group-based multidimensional trajectory modeling to identify age-specific multidimensional trajectories of SBP, DBP, and estimated cardiorespiratory fitness across 3 surveys (HUNT1, 1984-1986 to HUNT3, 2006-2008). Dementia was diagnosed in the HUNT4 70+ substudy in 2017-2019. We used multivariate logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and risk differences (RDs) of dementia.

RESULTS

In total, 7 594 participants (54.9% women) were included, with a mean age of 44.7 (SD 6.3) years at HUNT1. Dementia was diagnosed in 1 062 (14.0%) participants. We identified 2 multidimensional trajectories throughout adulthood within 3 age groups: one with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and lower estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (the poorer group), and one with lower SBP and DBP, and higher cardiorespiratory fitness (the better group). After adjustment for sex, apolipoprotein E ε4 status, education, marital status, and diabetes, the better group had consistently lower risk of dementia in all age groups with the lowest OR in the middle-aged group of 0.63 (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 0.51, 0.78) with corresponding RD of -0.07 (95% CI: -0.10, -0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Having a beneficial multidimensional trajectory of SBP, DBP, and cardiorespiratory fitness in adulthood was associated with reduced dementia risk. Aiming for optimal SBP, DBP, and estimated cardiorespiratory fitness throughout adulthood may reduce dementia risk.

Stress and Sleep Duration in Immune and Neuroendocrine Patterning. An Analytical Triangulation in ELSA

Background

Proinflammatory and neuroendocrine mediators are implicated in disease aetiopathogenesis. Stress increases concentrations of immune-neuroendocrine biomarkers through a complex network of brain-body signalling pathways. Suboptimal sleep further modulates these processes by altering major effector systems that sensitise the brain to stress. Given the ubiquitous, impactful nature of material deprivation, we tested for a synergistic association of financial stress and suboptimal sleep with these molecular processes.

Methods

With data drawn from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), associations were tested on 4,940 participants (~66±9.4 years) across four-years (2008-2012). Through analytical triangulation, we tested whether financial stress (>60% insufficient resources) and suboptimal sleep (≤5/≥9 hours) were independently and interactively associated with immune-neuroendocrine profiles, derived from a latent profile analysis (LPA) of C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, white blood cell counts, hair cortisol, and insulin-like growth factor-1.

Results

A three-class LPA model offered the greatest parsimony. After adjustment for genetic predisposition, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and health, financial stress was associated with short-sleep cross-sectionally (RRR=1.45; 95%CI=1.18-1.79; p<0.001) and longitudinally (RRR=1.31; 95%CI=1.02-1.68; p=0.035), and it increased risk of belonging to the high-risk biomarker profile by 42% (95%CI=1.12-1.80; p=0.004). Suboptimal sleep was not related to future risk of high-risk profile membership, nor did it moderate financial stress-biomarker profile associations.

Discussion

Results advance psychoneuroimmunological knowledge by revealing how immune-neuroendocrine markers cluster in older cohorts and respond to financial stress over time. Financial stress associations with short-sleep are supported. The null role of suboptimal sleep, as exposure and mediator, in profile membership, provides valuable insight into the dynamic role of sleep in immune-neuroendocrine processes.

Genetic and Epigenetic Landscape for Drug Development in Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

The treatment of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) faces challenges as all known treatments are merely symptomatic. The US Food and Drug Administration has not approved any drug specifically for treating PCOS. As the significance of genetics and epigenetics rises in drug development, their pivotal insights have greatly enhanced the efficacy and success of drug target discovery and validation, offering promise for guiding the advancement of PCOS treatments. In this context, we outline the genetic and epigenetic advancement in PCOS, which provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of this complex disease. We also delve into the prospective method for harnessing genetic and epigenetic strategies to identify potential drug targets and ensure target safety. Additionally, we shed light on the preliminary evidence and distinctive challenges associated with gene and epigenetic therapies in the context of PCOS.

Exploring the causal effect of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid levels on the risk of type 1 diabetes: a Mendelian randomization study

The burden of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is vast and as of 2021, an estimated 8.4 million people were living with the disease worldwide. Predictably, this number could increase to 17.4 million people by 2040. Despite nearly a century of insulin therapy for the management of hyperglycemia in T1D, no therapies exist to treat its underlying etiopathology. Adequate dietary intake of omega-3 fatty acids (ω-3) has been reported in observational studies and Randomized Controlled Trials to be associated with reduced risk of developing T1D but results have been inconclusive. We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study to explore the relationship between ω-3 intake and T1D. We performed a two-sample MR analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with ω-3 levels in a sample of 114,999 Europeans and their effects on T1D from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of 24,840 European participants. A main MR analysis using the Inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was conducted and validated using MR-Egger, Weighted median, and Weighted mode methods. Sensitivity analyses excluding potentially pleiotropic single nucleotide polymorphisms were also performed. Main MR analysis using the IVW method showed no evidence of a causal relationship between ω-3 levels and T1D risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.56-1.51, p = 0.745). MR-Egger and Weighted mode methods showed similar results while Weighted median showed a marginally significant association (OR: 1.15, CI: 1.00-1.32, p = 0.048). Sensitivity analysis revealed heterogeneity in the main analysis MR estimates (IVW Q > 100, p < 0.0001) and no directional pleiotropy (Egger intercept: -0.032, p = 0.261). Our study found limited evidence of a causal association between ω-3 and T1D, with only a marginally significant association observed in one of the four MR methods. This challenges the proposition that ω-3-rich diets are of substantial benefit for the prevention and management of T1D.

Systemic inflammation, lifestyle behaviours and dementia: A 10-year follow-up investigation

Objectives

Lifestyle behaviours have been linked to dementia incidence, but their cumulative impact on dementia and the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. This study investigated the association of co-occurring lifestyle behaviours with dementia incidence and the mediating role of systemic inflammation in this association.

Methods

The sample comprised 3131 participants (55.2% female) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing aged 52-92 years at baseline (2008/09). Self-reported baseline lifestyle behaviours (alcohol intake, fruit and vegetable consumption, smoking, physical activity, sleep duration, social engagement, and cognitive activity) were summed to derive an index of lifestyle behaviours, ranging from 0 to 7, with higher scores denoting a higher number of health-risk behaviours. Incident dementia cases (n = 130, 4.2%) were identified through doctor-diagnosed dementia, informant interviews, and health records between 2014/15 and 2018/19. Systemic inflammation was measured through fasting plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein in 2012/13.

Results

Binary logistic regression models indicated that the odds of subsequent dementia increased by 1.19 for each additional health-risk behaviour (95% confidence intervals: 1.04, 1.37, p = 0.014) after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, wealth, education, marital status, body mass index, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and depression. However, this association was not mediated by C-reactive protein.

Conclusions

Co-occurring health-risk behaviours were associated with higher dementia incidence up to 10 years later, underscoring the importance of modifying health-risk behaviours for the prevention of dementia. Systemic inflammation did not explain the association between behaviours and dementia.

Diet and risk for hernia: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Background

The relationship between dietary factors and hernias is currently unclear.

Methods

The UK Biobank was used to extract dietary factors that were used as exposures, including intake of alcohol, non-oily fish, beef, fresh fruit, oily fish, salad/raw vegetables, dried fruit, coffee, cereal, salt, tea, water, cooked vegetables, cheese, Lamb/mutton, pork, poultry, processed meat, and bread. The FinnGen biobank was used to obtain GWAS data on hernias as outcomes. The main analysis of this study was performed using the weighted median, MR-Egger, and IVW methods. Cochran's Q test was utilized to assess heterogeneity. To find potential outliers, the MR-PRESSO method was used. Leave-one-out analysis was employed to assess the IVW method's robustness.

Results

Alcoholic consumption per week (OR: 0.614; p = 0.00614) reduced the risk of inguinal hernia. Alcohol intake frequency (OR: 1.309; p = 0.0477) increased the risk of ventral hernia (mainly including incisional hernia and parastomal hernia). The intake of non-oily fish (OR: 2.945; p = 0.0214) increased the risk of inguinal hernia. Salt added to food (OR: 1.841; p = 0.00267) increased the risk of umbilical hernia. Cheese intake (OR: 0.434; p = 0.000536) and dried fruit intake (OR: 0.322; p = 0.00716) decreased the risk of ventral hernia, while cooked vegetable intake (OR: 4.475; p = 0.0380) increased the risk of ventral hernia. No causal relationships were found with hernias from other dietary factors.

Conclusion

Inguinal, umbilical, and ventral hernias are all related to dietary factors.

Association of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide with survival among US cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a cardiac biomarker associated with the risk of heart failure and death in the general population, but it has not been explored in cancer survivors.

METHODS

Using a US nationally representative sample of adults 20 years of age and older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2004, this study compared NT-proBNP levels between adults without cancer (n = 12 574) and adult cancer survivors (n = 787). It examined the association of NT-proBNP with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among cancer survivors.

RESULTS

Cancer survivors had higher NT-proBNP levels than adults without cancer (median [interquartile range] = 125.4 pg/mL [52.4-286.0] vs 43.2 pg/mL [20.3-95.0]). In particular, survivors of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers had higher NT-proBNP levels than adults without cancer (multivariable-adjusted P < .05). In total, 471 survivors died (141 from cancer; 95 from cardiac disease) during a median follow-up period of 13.4 years (9393 person-years). Among cancer survivors, higher NT-proBNP levels were statistically associated with increased risks of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18 to 1.46) and cardiac death (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.21 to 2.00) but not with death from cancer (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.92 to 1.32]). Higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with elevated overall mortality in survivors of prostate cancer (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.22 to 1.81) and colorectal cancer (HR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.00 to 3.16) (P = .169 for interaction). Nonlinear dose-response relationships were observed between NT-proBNP and mortality, with statistically significant relationships emerging above 125 pg/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer survivors had higher NT-proBNP levels than adults without cancer, and elevated NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiac mortality in cancer survivors.

Interplay of body mass index and metabolic syndrome: association with physiological age from midlife to late-life

Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) share common pathophysiological characteristics with aging. To better understand their interplay, we examined how body mass index (BMI) and MetS jointly associate with physiological age, and if the associations changed from midlife to late-life. We used longitudinal data from 1,825 Swedish twins. Physiological age was measured as frailty index (FI) and functional aging index (FAI) and modeled independently in linear mixed-effects models adjusted for chronological age, sex, education, and smoking. We assessed curvilinear associations of BMI and chronological age with physiological age, and interactions between BMI, MetS, and chronological age. We found a significant three-way interaction between BMI, MetS, and chronological age on FI (p-interaction = 0·006), not FAI. Consequently, we stratified FI analyses by age: < 65, 65-85, and ≥ 85 years, and modeled FAI across ages. Except for FI at ages ≥ 85, BMI had U-shaped associations with FI and FAI, where BMI around 26-28 kg/m2 was associated with the lowest physiological age. MetS was associated with higher FI and FAI, except for FI at ages < 65, and modified the BMI-FI association at ages 65-85 (p-interaction = 0·02), whereby the association between higher BMI levels and FI was stronger in individuals with MetS. Age modified the MetS-FI association in ages ≥ 85, such that it was stronger at higher ages (p-interaction = 0·01). Low BMI, high BMI, and metabolic syndrome were associated with higher physiological age, contributing to overall health status among older individuals and potentially accelerating aging.

Sedentary behavior and the combination of physical activity associated with dementia, functional disability, and mortality: A cohort study of 90,471 older adults in Japan

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations of sedentary behavior (SB) and the combination of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) with dementia, functional disability, and mortality in older adults, and the heterogeneity in different subpopulations.

METHODS

Nation-wide cohort with 90,471 individuals aged ≥65 years in Japan. SB (<3, 3-<8, and ≥ 8 h per day [h/d]) and MVPA (0, 0 < MVPA<1, and ≥ 1 h/d) were measured in 2016. Long-term care registry-based incidence of outcomes was ascertained through 2021. Cox proportional hazard models were performed.

RESULTS

Compared with SB < 3 h/d group, SB ≥ 8 h/d was associated with higher risks of dementia, functional disability, and mortality with hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1.36 (1.22-1.52), 1.32 (1.19-1.48), and 1.31 (1.18-1.45). The combination of MVPA and SB demonstrated a dose-respond trend of increasing risks of dementia, functional disability, and mortality with increased SB and decreased MVPA, where participants who spent no MVPA with SB ≥ 8 h/d had the highest risks. High MVPA attenuated but didn't eliminate the risks. Participants who spent MVPA≥1 h/d with SB ≥ 8 h/d had comparable risks to those who spent no MVPA with SB < 3 h/d. No heterogeneity was found by MVPA levels, sex, education, comorbidity, and depression conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Prolonged daily SB was associated with higher risks of dementia, functional disability, and mortality in older adults, regardless of MVPA, sex, education, and chronic conditions. Individuals with high MVPA also face considerable risks when engaging in high SB. High MVPA with high SB revealed a comparable risk to no MVPA with low SB.

Understanding the Extent of Polypharmacy and its Association With Health Service Utilization Among Persons With Cancer and Multimorbidity: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study in Ontario, Canada

Background: Cancer often co-occurs with other chronic conditions, which may result in polypharmacy. Polypharmacy is associated with adverse outcomes, including increased health service utilization. Objectives: This study examines the overall prevalence of polypharmacy (5 or more medications) among adults with cancer and multimorbidity, as well as the association of both minor polypharmacy (5-9 medications) and hyper-polypharmacy (10 or more medications) on high use of emergency room visits and hospitalizations, while controlling for age, sex, and type and stage of cancer. Methods: This retrospective longitudinal study used linked health administrative databases and included persons 18 years and older diagnosed with cancer between April 2010 and March 2013 in Ontario, Canada. Data on the number of health service utilizations at or above the 90th percentile (high users), was collected up to March 2014 and multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the impact of polypharmacy. Results: The prevalence of polypharmacy was 46% prior to cancer diagnosis, and 57% one year after diagnosis. Polypharmacy prior to and after cancer diagnosis increased with the level of multimorbidity, increasing age, but did not differ by sex. It was also highest in persons with lung cancer (52.4%) and those diagnosed with stage 4 cancer (51.3%). Minor polypharmacy increased the odds of being a high user of emergency rooms (1.16; 99% CI: 1.09-1.24) and hospitalizations (1.03; 0.98-1.09) and the odds of high use was greater with hyper-polypharmacy (1.41; 1.33-1.51) and (1.23; 1.17-1.29) respectively. Conclusion: Polypharmacy is highly prevalent and is associated with high health service utilization among adults with cancer and multimorbidity.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear.

METHODS

We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk.

INTERPRETATION

Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Venous thromboembolism in critically ill adult patients with hematologic malignancy: a population-based cohort study

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and major bleeding among hospitalized patients with hematologic malignancy, assessing its association with critical illness and other baseline characteristics.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of hospitalized adults with a new diagnosis of hematologic malignancy in Ontario, Canada, between 2006 and 2017. The primary outcome was VTE (pulmonary embolism or deep venous thrombosis). Secondary outcomes were major bleeding and in-hospital mortality. We compared the incidence of VTE between intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients and described the association of other baseline characteristics and VTE.

RESULTS

Among 76,803 eligible patients (mean age 67 years [standard deviation, SD, 15]), 20,524 had at least one ICU admission. The incidence of VTE was 3.7% in ICU patients compared to 1.2% in non-ICU patients (odds ratio [OR] 3.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.77-3.42). The incidence of major bleeding was 7.6% and 2.4% (OR 3.33; 95% CI 3.09-3.58), respectively. The association of critical illness and VTE remained significant after adjusting for potential confounders (OR 2.92; 95% CI 2.62-3.25). We observed a higher incidence of VTE among specific subtypes of hematologic malignancy and patients with prior VTE (OR 6.64; 95% CI 5.42-8.14). Admission more than 1 year after diagnosis of hematologic malignancy (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.56-0.74) and platelet count ≤ 50 × 109/L at the time of hospitalization (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.48-0.84) were associated with a lower incidence of VTE.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with hematologic malignancy, critical illness and certain baseline characteristics were associated with a higher incidence of VTE.

Causal relationship of genetically predicted particulate matter 2.5 level with Alzheimer's disease and the mediating effect of dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate

BACKGROUND

The causal association between particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains inconclusive, and the mediators of the association have yet to be explored.

AIMS

We aimed to assess the potential causal relationship between PM2.5 and AD, and to investigate the mediating role of dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We implemented a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to examine the genetic predisposition to PM2.5 exposure and its association with AD. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method served as the primary analytical tool to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI).

RESULTS

There were 6 and 4 genetic variants associated with DHEAS and PM2.5, respectively. Based on the multivariable MR analysis, we found that after adjusting for DHEAS, each standard deviation increase in PM2.5 was associated with the risk of AD (OR: 2.96, 95% CI: 1.33, 6.58, p = 0.00769). The MR Egger intercept test did not detect horizontal pleiotropy for PM2.5 (P-pleiotropy = 0.879) and DHEAS(P-pleiotropy = 0.941). According to the results of the mediation analysis, DHEAS accounted for 18.3% of the association between PM2.5 and AD.

CONCLUSION

Our findings affirm a significant causal association between PM2.5 exposure and AD, with DHEAS playing a mediating role in this relationship.

Heart Rate Variability and Cognition: A Narrative Systematic Review of Longitudinal Studies

BACKGROUND

Heart rate variability (HRV) is a reliable and convenient method to assess autonomic function. Cross-sectional studies have established a link between HRV and cognition. Longitudinal studies are an emerging area of research with important clinical implications in terms of the predictive value of HRV for future cognition and in terms of the potential causal relationship between HRV and cognition. However, they have not yet been the objective of a systematic review. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review was to investigate the association between HRV and cognition in longitudinal studies.

METHODS

The review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The Embase, PsycINFO and PubMed databases were searched from the earliest available date to 26 June 2023. Studies were included if they involved adult human subjects and evaluated the longitudinal association between HRV and cognition. The risk of bias was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for Cohort Studies. The results were presented narratively.

RESULTS

Of 14,359 records screened, 12 studies were included in this systematic review, with a total of 24,390 participants. Two thirds of the studies were published from 2020 onwards. All studies found a longitudinal relationship between HRV and cognition. There was a consistent association between higher parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) activity and better cognition, and some association between higher sympathetic nervous system activity and worse cognition. Also, higher PNS activity persistently predicted better executive functioning, while data on episodic memory and language were more scant and/or controversial.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the role of HRV as a biomarker of future cognition and, potentially, as a therapeutic target to improve cognition. They will need confirmation by further, more comprehensive studies also including unequivocal non-HRV sympathetic measures and meta-analyses.

Risk of osteoarthritis in patients with hidradenitis suppurativa: a global federated health network analysis

Background

Osteoarthritis and hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) share a common inflammatory pathway. However, whether patients with HS have higher risk developing osteoarthritis remained unclear.

Methods

A retrospective cohort design was adopted in this study. Electronic medical records had been retrieved from the US collaborative network in the TriNetX research network. A propensity score matching of 1:1 was performed to match for covariates. In total, 50,931 patients with HS and the same amount of non-HS controls were identified for analyses. Hazard ratio (HR) of osteoarthritis in patient with HS was calculated.

Results

Risk of patients with HS developing osteoarthritis was 1.37-fold higher than that of non-HS controls [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.21-1.55] when followed up for 1 year. The significance remained when the follow-up periods were extended to 3 years and 5 years. When osteoarthritis was stratified on occurring sites, the HR of knee osteoarthritis was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.09-1.29) and the HR of hip osteoarthritis was 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.35) in the 5-year follow-up. The 5-year risk of osteoarthritis remained significant in sensitivity models.

Conclusion

Patients with HS were of high risk of developing osteoarthritis compared with people without HS. The clinical association was recommended to be considered while approaching patients with HS.

The predictive validity of a Brain Care Score for dementia and stroke: data from the UK Biobank cohort

Introduction

The 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process in partnership with practitioners and patients to promote behavior changes and lifestyle choices in order to sustainably reduce the risk of dementia and stroke. We aimed to assess the associations of the BCS with risk of incident dementia and stroke.

Methods

The BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) baseline evaluation for participants aged 40-69 years, recruited between 2006-2010. Associations of BCS and risk of subsequent incident dementia and stroke were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regressions, adjusted for sex assigned at birth and stratified by age groups at baseline.

Results

The BCS (median: 12; IQR:11-14) was derived for 398,990 UKB participants (mean age: 57; females: 54%). There were 5,354 incident cases of dementia and 7,259 incident cases of stroke recorded during a median follow-up of 12.5 years. A five-point higher BCS at baseline was associated with a 59% (95%CI: 40-72%) lower risk of dementia among participants aged <50. Among those aged 50-59, the figure was 32% (95%CI: 20-42%) and 8% (95%CI: 2-14%) for those aged >59 years. A five-point higher BCS was associated with a 48% (95%CI: 39-56%) lower risk of stroke among participants aged <50, 52% (95%CI, 47-56%) among those aged 50-59, and 33% (95%CI, 29-37%) among those aged >59.

Discussion

The BCS has clinically relevant and statistically significant associations with risk of dementia and stroke in approximately 0.4 million UK people. Future research includes investigating the feasibility, adaptability and implementation of the BCS for patients and providers worldwide.

Leisure-time physical activity, daily sitting time, and mortality among US skin cancer survivors

PURPOSE

To investigate the long-term effect of sitting time and physical activity after a skin cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

A cohort of a nationally representative sample of skin cancer survivors (n=862) and non-cancer adults (n=13691) ≥50 years from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Mortality data were linked through December 31, 2019.

RESULTS

During up to 13.2 years of follow-up (median, 6.3 years; 94,093 person-years), 207 deaths (cancer: 53) occurred in skin cancer survivors and 1970 (cancer: 414) in non-cancer adults. After adjusting for covariates and skin cancer type, being active was associated with lower risks of all-cause (HR=0.69; 95% CI: 0.47 to 1.00) and non-cancer (HR=0.59; 95% CI: 0.36 to 0.97) mortality compared to being inactive among skin cancer survivors. Meanwhile, sitting 8 h/d was associated with higher risks of all-cause (HR=1.72; 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.67) and non-cancer (HR=1.76; 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.92) mortality compared to sitting <6 h/d. In the joint analysis, inactive skin cancer survivors sitting >8 h/d had the highest mortality risks from all-cause (HR=2.26; 95% CI: 1.28 to 4.00) and non-cancer (HR=2.11; 95% CI,1.10 to 4.17). Additionally, the associations of LTPA and sitting time with all-cause and cause-specific mortality did not differ between skin cancer survivors and non-cancer adults (all P for interaction>0.05) CONCLUSION: The combination of prolonged sitting and lack of physical activity was associated with elevated risks of all-cause and non-cancer deaths among US skin cancer survivors. Skin cancer survivors could benefit from maintaining a physically active lifestyle.

Sodium-based paracetamol: impact on blood pressure, cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Effervescent formulations of paracetamol containing sodium bicarbonate have been reported to associate with increased blood pressure and a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality. Given the major implications of these findings, the reported associations were re-examined.

METHODS

Using linked electronic health records data, a cohort of 475 442 UK individuals with at least one prescription of paracetamol, aged between 60 and 90 years, was identified. Outcomes in patients taking sodium-based paracetamol were compared with those taking non-sodium-based formulations of the same. Using a deep learning approach, associations with systolic blood pressure (SBP), major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke), and all-cause mortality within 1 year after baseline were investigated.

RESULTS

A total of 460 980 and 14 462 patients were identified for the non-sodium-based and sodium-based paracetamol exposure groups, respectively (mean age: 74 years; 64% women). Analysis revealed no difference in SBP [mean difference -0.04 mmHg (95% confidence interval -0.51, 0.43)] and no association with major cardiovascular events [relative risk (RR) 1.03 (0.91, 1.16)]. Sodium-based paracetamol showed a positive association with all-cause mortality [RR 1.46 (1.40, 1.52)]. However, after further accounting of other sources of residual confounding, the observed association attenuated towards the null [RR 1.08 (1.01, 1.16)]. Exploratory analyses revealed dysphagia and related conditions as major sources of uncontrolled confounding by indication for this association.

CONCLUSIONS

This study does not support previous suggestions of increased SBP and an elevated risk of cardiovascular events from short-term use of sodium bicarbonate paracetamol in routine clinical practice.

Causal models and causal modelling in obesity: foundations, methods and evidence

Discussing causes in science, if we are to do so in a way that is sensible, begins at the root. All too often, we jump to discussing specific postulated causes but do not first consider what we mean by, for example, causes of obesity or how we discern whether something is a cause. In this paper, we address what we mean by a cause, discuss what might and might not constitute a reasonable causal model in the abstract, speculate about what the causal structure of obesity might be like overall and the types of things we should be looking for, and finally, delve into methods for evaluating postulated causes and estimating causal effects. We offer the view that different meanings of the concept of causal factors in obesity research are regularly being conflated, leading to confusion, unclear thinking and sometimes nonsense. We emphasize the idea of different kinds of studies for evaluating various aspects of causal effects and discuss experimental methods, assumptions and evaluations. We use analogies from other areas of research to express the plausibility that only inelegant solutions will be truly informative. Finally, we offer comments on some specific postulated causal factors. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures and evidence (Part II)'.

Sleep quality and perinatal depression in pregnant women treated in a primary care centre in Lima, Peru

OBJECTIVE

The aim is to evaluate the association between sleep quality and perinatal depression in pregnant women between the 12th week of gestation and the 36th week of gestation in a maternity and child centre in Lima.

METHODS

Analytical cross-sectional study in pregnant women cared for in a primary care centre between August and December 2019. The data were collected through a self-administered survey. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) was used to assess sleep quality. The evaluation of perinatal depression was performed with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). For the multivariate analysis, Poisson regression with robust variances was used to calculate the crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and their respective confidence intervals.

RESULTS

The sample was composed of 200 participants. The median [IQR] age was 26 [22-32] years, and 111 (55.5%) pregnancies were unplanned. 52% presented a poor quality of sleep and the risk of perinatal depression was 31.5%. Poor quality of sleep was associated with a significantly higher frequency of perinatal depression (aPR = 4.8 for those with poor quality of sleep warranting medical attention, and aPR = 6.6 for those with poor quality of sleep warranting medical attention and treatment).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a possible association between poor sleep quality and perinatal depression in pregnant women between weeks 12 and 36 of gestation. Operational research should be promoted to assess whether interventions to improve sleep quality could have a positive impact on reducing perinatal depression.

The Southern European Atlantic diet and depression risk: a European multicohort study

The Southern European Atlantic diet (SEAD) is the traditional dietary pattern of north-western Spain and northern Portugal, but it may resemble that of other European countries. The SEAD has been found associated with lower risk for myocardial infarction and mortality. Since dietary patterns may also influence mental health, we examined the association between the SEAD and depression risk in southern, central, eastern, and western European populations. We conducted a prospective analysis of five cohorts (13,297 participants aged 45-92 years, free of depression at baseline): Seniors-ENRICA-1 and Seniors-ENRICA-2 (Spain), HAPIEE (Czechia and Poland), and Whitehall-II (United Kingdom). The SEAD comprised cod, other fresh fish, red meat and pork products, dairy, legumes and vegetables, vegetable soup, potatoes, whole-grain bread, and moderate wine consumption. Depression at follow-up was defined according to presence of depressive symptoms (based on available scales), use of prescribed antidepressants, inpatient admissions, or self-reported diagnosis. Associations were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and dietary variables. During a median follow-up of 3.9 years (interquartile range 3.4-4.9), there were 1437 new depression cases. Higher adherence to the SEAD was associated with lower depression risk in the pooled sample. Individual food groups showed a similar tendency, albeit non-significant. The fully adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) per 1-standard deviation increment in the SEAD was 0.91 (0.86, 0.96). This association was rather consistent across countries [Spain = 0.86 (0.75, 0.99), Czechia = 0.86 (0.75, 0.99), Poland = 0.97 (0.89, 1.06), United Kingdom = 0.85 (0.75, 0.97); p for interaction = 0.24], and was of similar magnitude as that found for existing healthy dietary patterns. In conclusion, the SEAD was associated with lower depression risk across European populations. This may support the development of mood disorder guidelines for Southern European Atlantic regions based on their traditional diet, and for central, eastern, and western European populations based on the SEAD food groups that are culturally rooted in these places.

Associations of alcohol intake with subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in 22,000 Chinese adults

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We investigated the causal relevance of alcohol intake with measures of carotid artery thickness and atherosclerosis in Chinese adults.

METHODS

The study included 22,384 adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank, with self-reported alcohol use at baseline and resurvey, carotid artery ultrasound measurements, and genotyping data for ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Associations of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), any carotid plaque, and total plaque burden (derived from plaque number and size) with self-reported (conventional analyses) and genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake (Mendelian randomization) were assessed using linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Overall 34.2% men and 2.1% women drank alcohol regularly at baseline. Mean cIMT was 0.70 mm in men and 0.64 mm in women, with 39.1% and 26.5% having carotid plaque, respectively. Among men, cIMT was not associated with self-reported or genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake. The risk of plaque increased significantly with self-reported intake among current drinkers (odds ratio 1.42 [95% CI 1.14-1.76] per 280 g/week), with directionally consistent findings with genotype-predicted mean intake (1.21 [0.99-1.49]). Higher alcohol intake was significantly associated with higher carotid plaque burden in both conventional (0.19 [0.10-0.28] mm higher per 280 g/week) and genetic analyses (0.09 [0.02-0.17]). Genetic findings in women suggested the association of genotype-predicted alcohol with carotid plaque burden in men was likely to due to alcohol itself, rather than pleiotropic genotypic effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher alcohol intake was associated with a higher carotid plaque burden, but not with cIMT, providing support for a potential causal association of alcohol intake with carotid atherosclerosis.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Background

Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear.

Methods

We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,162 cancer cases and up to 824,556 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 x 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e. in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") < 0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) > 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes.

Results

We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, q-value=0.033, PPH4=84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20-1.69, q-value=0.055, PPH4=73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.81, q-value=0.067, PPH4=81.8%), macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.23, q-value=0.072, PPH4=76.1%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, q-value=0.15), PPH4=85.6%). For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥ 0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk.

Conclusion

Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 5 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 5 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

Association between Polyphenol Intake and Lipid Profile of Adults and Elders in a Northeastern Brazilian Capital

This research was aimed at evaluating the relationship between the estimated polyphenol intake and the atherogenic lipid profile in adult and elder residents in the city of Teresina, located in the Northeastern Region of Brazil. This study was a cross-sectional population-based survey with 501 adults and elders, conducted in Teresina, Brazil. Food intake was obtained by 24-h food recall. The estimated polyphenol intake was calculated by multiplying the food consumption data from the recall by the polyphenol content in the foods described in the Phenol-Explorer database. The mean intake of total polyphenols was 1006.53 mg/day. The phenolic acids was the class with the highest intake, followed by the flavonols. Coffee, beans and apples were the main foods contributing to the total polyphenol intake. In the individuals with elevated serum concentrations of total cholesterol and triglycerides, the intake of total polyphenols was significantly higher. The intake of total polyphenols, phenolic acids and lignans was higher in the subjects with dyslipidemia. This article provides, for the first time, data on the intake of the total polyphenol classes and subclasses in the evaluated population and the relationship with the lipid profile. The individuals with a higher intake of total polyphenols had a worse lipid profile, which may be a consequence of an improved diet in those individuals who present with dyslipidemia.

Rational Prescribing and Deprescribing of Antihypertensive Medications in Older People, a Three-Part Narrative Review, Part 3

What happens when you stop? This is the third of a three-part series on antihypertensive medication use in older people. In the first, we reviewed the importance of better blood pressure (BP) control, even in older people with hypertension. In the second, we discussed the limitations of the evidence favoring intensive therapy for some older people. For older people with advanced frailty or those with a limited life expectancy, medications taken for BP can actually be a source of morbidity. Guidelines encourage clinical judgment and rational prescribing. Sometimes the best action is to stop prescribing. De-prescribing of medical therapy is now considered good practice for a range of medications for suitable patients; should this include antihypertensives? In part three of this three-part series, we will review some of the evidence available thus far, demonstrating de-intensification of antihypertensive medications is not a new idea. We will offer a guide to identifying the most suitable patients for de-prescribing: cognitive impairment, frailty, when circumstances change, or when BP is (too) well-controlled. This is an area of equipoise and needs more research. There is a path forward that we hope to illuminate.

How to Distinguish Correlation From Causation in Orthopaedic Research

Correlations in observational studies are commonly misinterpreted as causation. Although correlation is necessary to establish a causal relationship between two variables, correlations may also arise due to chance, reverse causality, or confounding. There are several methods available to orthopaedic researchers to determine whether the observed correlations are causal. These methods depend on the key components of the study including, but not limited to, study design and data availability on confounders. In this article, we illustrate the main concepts surrounding correlation and causation using intuitive real-world examples from the orthopaedic literature. Please visit the following https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW7pFudZbHA&t=52s for a video that explains the highlights of the paper in practical terms.

Dose-response relationship between daily step count and prevalence of sarcopenia: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Daily step counts are an easy-to-understand indicator of physical activity; however, there is limited evidence regarding the optimal daily step count to prevent sarcopenia. This study examined the dose-response relationship between daily step count and the prevalence of sarcopenia and explored the optimal dose.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The study included 7949 community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults (aged 45-74 years) from Japan.

MEASUREMENTS

Skeletal muscle mass (SMM) was assessed using bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy, and muscle strength was quantified through handgrip strength (HGS) measurement. Participants who exhibited both low HGS (men: <28 kg, women: <18 kg) and low SMM (lowest quartile in each sex-specific category) were defined as having sarcopenia. Daily step counts were measured for 10 days using a waist-mounted accelerometer. To examine the association between daily step count and sarcopenia, a multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed, adjusting for potential confounding factors such as age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption, protein intake, and medical history. The odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated based on the daily step counts categorized into quartiles (Q1-Q4). Finally, a restricted cubic spline curve was fitted to further investigate the dose-response relationship between daily step count and sarcopenia.

RESULTS

The prevalence of sarcopenia in the overall participants was 3.3 % (259/7949 participants), with a mean daily step count of 7292 ± 2966 steps. Expressed in quartiles, the mean daily step counts were 3873 ± 935 steps in Q1, 6025 ± 503 steps in Q2, 7942 ± 624 steps in Q3, and 11,328 ± 1912 steps in Q4. The prevalence of sarcopenia in each quartile of daily step count was 4.7 % (93/1987 participants) in Q1, 3.4 % (68/1987 participants) in Q2, 2.7 % (53/1988 participants) in Q3, and 2.3 % (45/1987 participants) in Q4. The ORs and 95 % CIs adjusted for covariates demonstrated a statistically significant inverse association between daily step count and sarcopenia prevalence (P for trend <0.01), as follows: Q1, reference; Q2, 0.79 (95 % CI: 0.55-1.11); Q3, 0.71 (95 % CI: 0.49-1.03); Q4, 0.61 (95 % CI: 0.41-0.90). The restricted cubic spline curve indicated that the ORs leveled off at approximately 8000 steps per day, and no statistically significant decrease in ORs was observed for daily step counts above this threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

The study found a significant inverse association between daily step count and the prevalence of sarcopenia, with the association plateauing when the daily step count exceeded approximately 8000 steps. These findings suggest that 8000 steps per day may be the optimal dose to prevent sarcopenia. Further intervention and longitudinal studies are needed to validate the results.

Causal associations of obstructive sleep apnea with cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomization study

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) had been associated with various cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in observational studies, but causal inferences have not been confirmed. We used the Mendelian randomization (MR) study to explore the potential causal association between OSA with CVDs in the general population.

METHODS

We performed a two-sample MR analysis using five gene-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with OSA at genome-wide significance from the FinnGen study (N = 217 955) and 12 cardiovascular diseases from the UK Biobank and the genetic consortia. The inverse-variance weight was chosen as the primary analysis and was complemented by various sensitivity analyses. The study design applied univariable MR, multivariable MR, and mediation analysis.

RESULTS

MR analyses provide evidence of genetically predicted OSA on the risk of heart failure (odds ratio [OR],1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.08 to 1.47), hypertension (OR,1.24; 95%CI, 1.11 to 1.39) and atrial fibrillation (OR,1.21; 95%CI,1.12 to 1.31). Multivariable MR indicated the adverse effect of OSA on heart failure persisted after adjusting BMI, smoking, drinking, and education (IVW OR,1.13; 95%CI, 1.01 to 1.27). However, the significance of hypertension and atrial fibrillation was dampened. Mediation analyses suggest that the causal association between OSA and heart failure is mediated in part by Apolipoprotein B, with a mediated portion of 9%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggested that genetically predicted OSA is a potential causal risk factor for heart failure based on a large-scale population. Nevertheless, further studies regarding ancestral diversity are needed to confirm the causal association between OSA and CVDs.

Patients' understanding of long-term cardiovascular risks and associated health-seeking behaviours after pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

The lifelong risks of cardiovascular disease following hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are well described. Awareness of these risks and associated health-seeking behaviours among affected individuals remains unclear. We aimed to assess participants' knowledge of their cardiovascular disease risk and relevant health-seeking behaviours following a pregnancy affected by preeclampsia or gestational hypertension.

METHODS

We undertook a single-site, cross-sectional cohort study. The target population included individuals who birthed at a large tertiary referral centre in Melbourne, Australia, between 2016 and 2020, and were diagnosed with gestational hypertension or pre-eclampsia. Participants completed a survey assessing pregnancy details, medical comorbidities, knowledge of future risks and health-seeking behaviours post-pregnancy.

RESULTS

1526 individuals met inclusion criteria and 438 (28.6%) completed the survey. Of these, 62.6% (n=237) were unaware of their increased risk of cardiovascular disease following a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. Participants who reported awareness of their increased risk were more likely to have annual blood pressure monitoring (54.6% vs 38.1%, p<0.01), and at least one assessment of blood cholesterol (p<0.01), blood glucose (p=0.03) and renal function (p=0.01). Participants who were aware were more likely to be taking antihypertensive medication (24.5% vs 6.6%, p<0.01) since pregnancy, compared with those who were unaware. There were no differences between groups in diet, exercise or smoking habits.

CONCLUSION

Among our study cohort, risk awareness was associated with increased health-seeking behaviours. Participants who were aware of their increased risk of cardiovascular disease were more likely to have regular cardiovascular risk factor assessments. They were also more likely to be taking antihypertensive medication.

Longitudinal Associations Between Exclusive and Dual Use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems and Cigarettes and Self-Reported Incident Diagnosed Cardiovascular Disease Among Adults

INTRODUCTION

The cardiovascular health effects of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use are not well characterized, making it difficult to assess ENDS as a potential harm reduction tool for adults who use cigarettes.

AIMS AND METHODS

Using waves 1-5 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (2013-2019), we analyzed the risk of self-reported incident diagnosed myocardial infarction (MI; 280 incident cases) and stroke (186 incident cases) associated with ENDS and/or cigarette use among adults aged 40 + using discrete time survival models. We employed a time-varying exposure lagged by one wave, defined as exclusive or dual established use of ENDS and/or cigarettes every day or some days, and controlled for demographics, clinical factors, and past smoking history.

RESULTS

The analytic samples (MI = 11 031; stroke = 11 076) were predominantly female and non-Hispanic White with a mean age of 58 years. At baseline, 14.2% of respondents exclusively smoked cigarettes, 0.6% exclusively used ENDS, and 1.0% used both products. Incident MI and stroke were rare during follow-up (< 1% at each wave). Compared to no cigarette or ENDS use, exclusive cigarette use increased the risk of MI (aHR 1.99, 95% CI = 1.40-2.84) and stroke (aHR 2.26, 95% CI = 1.51-3.39), while exclusive ENDS use (MI: aHR 0.61, 95% CI = 0.12-3.04; stroke: aHR 1.74, 95% CI = 0.55-5.49) and dual use (MI: aHR 1.84, 95% CI = 0.64-5.30; stroke: aHR 1.12, 95% CI = 0.33-3.79) were not significantly associated with the risk of either outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to non-use, exclusive cigarette use was associated with an increased risk of self-reported incident diagnosed cardiovascular disease over a 5-year period, while ENDS use was not associated with a statistically significant increase in the outcomes.

IMPLICATIONS

Existing literature on the health effects of ENDS use has important limitations, including potential reverse causation and improper control for cigarette smoking. We accounted for these issues by using a prospective design and adjusting for current and former smoking status and cigarette pack-years. In this context, we did not find that ENDS use was associated with a statistically significant increase in self-reported incident diagnosed myocardial infarction or stroke over a 5-year period. While more studies are needed, this analysis provides an important foundation and key methodological considerations for future research on the health effects of ENDS use.

Light cigarette smoking and all-cause mortality in Spain. A national population-based cohort study

PURPOSE

Regular light cigarette consumption (light smoking) is increasing in many countries; however, few studies have assessed its impact on mortality. The main aim of this study is to estimate the association between the number of cigarettes consumed and all-cause mortality in Spain while focusing on light smoking.

METHODS

Longitudinal study based on data from 42,902 individuals aged ≥15 years included in the 2011-2012 (Spanish) National Health Survey or the 2014 European Health Survey for Spain. Data were linked with the mortality registry up to December 2020. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for sociodemographic variables, lifestyle factors, and health status indicators.

RESULTS

Compared to never smokers, the mortality HR for nondaily smokers was 1.30 (95% CI: 0.81-2.09), increasing to 2.23 (95% CI: 1.25-3.96) among those smoking 1-2 cigarettes/d, and to 1.54 (95%CI: 1.14-2.07) for consumers of 3-5 cigarettes/day. When individuals who reported trying to quit during the previous year were excluded, resulting HRs were 1.31 (95% CI: 0.81-2.10), 1.48 (95% CI: 0.69-3.19) and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.16-2.34), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to never smokers, consumers of small quantities of tobacco, that is, light smoking, had an increased mortality risk. In view of these results, we suggest the need for awareness-raising campaigns regarding how smoking even a small number of cigarettes a day causes serious harm to one´s health.

Association between arterial stiffness/remodeling and new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus in general population

OBJECTIVE

We studied if large artery stiffness is involved in type 2 diabetes pathogenesis. We also investigated the effect of genetic risk for type 2 diabetes in these associations and the causality.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study (n = 3,055; mean age, 67.2 years), markers of aortic and carotid stiffnesses and measures of arterial remodeling were assessed. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis estimated the associations between arterial stiffness measures with incident type 2 diabetes. We used 403 single nucleotide polymorphisms to calculate the genetic risk score (GRS) for type 2 diabetes. We adopted Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the causal associations.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 14.0 years, higher carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (hazard ratio,1.18; 95 %CI: 1.04-1.35), carotid distensibility coefficient (1.17; 1.04-1.32), and carotid intima-media thickness (1.15; 1.01-1.32) were independently associated with incident diabetes. The associations were stronger among individuals with a higher GRS for type 2 diabetes. MR analysis did not support the causality of the observed associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated arterial stiffness is independently associated with incident type 2 diabetes. For most arterial stiffness markers, the associations with incident type 2 diabetes were more robust in individuals with a higher GRS for diabetes.

Does educational attainment modify the causal relationship between adiposity and cardiovascular disease? A Mendelian randomization study

A greater risk of cardiovascular disease is associated with low educational attainment and high adiposity. Despite the correlation between low educational attainment and high adiposity, whether educational attainment modifies the risk of CVD caused by high adiposity remains poorly understood. We investigated the effect of adiposity (body mass index [BMI] and waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI [WHRadjBMI]) on incident CVD among individuals with varying education levels, using associational and one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) survival analyses. Data were collected from 2006 to 2021, and sample sizes were 254,281 (27,511 CVD cases) for BMI and 253,968 (27,458 CVD cases) for WHRadjBMI. In the associational model, a standard deviation (SD) higher BMI was associated with 19.81 (95% CI: 18.55-21.06) additional cases of incident CVD per 10,000 person-years for individuals with a secondary education, versus 32.96 (95% CI: 28.75-37.17) for those without. When university degree served as the education variable, education group differences attenuated, with 18.26 (95% CI: 16.37-20.15) cases from a one SD higher BMI for those with a university degree versus 23.18 [95% CI: 21.56-24.72] for those without. For the MR model, an SD higher BMI resulted in 11.75 (95% CI: -0.84-24.38) and 29.79 (95% CI: 17.20-42.44) additional cases of incident CVD per 10,000 person-years for individuals with versus without a university degree. WHRadjBMI exhibited no effect differences by education. While the associational model showed evidence of educational attainment modifying the relationship between adiposity and incident CVD, it does not modify the association between adiposity and incident CVD in the MR models. This suggests either less education does not cause greater risk of incident CVD from high adiposity, or MR models cannot detect the effect difference. The associational point estimates exist within the MR models' confidence intervals in all BMI analyses, so we cannot rule out the effect sizes in the associational models.

A comparison of the genes and genesets identified by GWAS and EWAS of fifteen complex traits

Identifying genomic regions pertinent to complex traits is a common goal of genome-wide and epigenome-wide association studies (GWAS and EWAS). GWAS identify causal genetic variants, directly or via linkage disequilibrium, and EWAS identify variation in DNA methylation associated with a trait. While GWAS in principle will only detect variants due to causal genes, EWAS can also identify genes via confounding, or reverse causation. We systematically compare GWAS (N > 50,000) and EWAS (N > 4500) results of 15 complex traits. We evaluate if the genes or gene ontology terms flagged by GWAS and EWAS overlap, and find substantial overlap for diastolic blood pressure, (gene overlap P = 5.2 × 10^-6; term overlap P = 0.001). We superimpose our empirical findings against simulated models of varying genetic and epigenetic architectures and observe that in most cases GWAS and EWAS are likely capturing distinct genesets. Our results indicate that GWAS and EWAS are capturing different aspects of the biology of complex traits.

Associations of Prolonged Occupational Sitting with the Spectrum of Kidney Disease: Results from a Cohort of a Half-Million Asian Adults

BACKGROUND

Kidney diseases are viewed as continuously progressing diseases from microalbuminuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD), to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and its mortality including deaths. The report on the association between prolonged sitting and kidney diseases is limited.

METHODS

We examined a cohort of 455,506 participants in a screening program in Taiwan conducted between 1996 and 2017. Data on occupational sedentary behavior and physical activity were collected with a standardized questionnaire. The outcomes of ESRD and death were identified by linking with the Catastrophic Illness Dataset and Cause of Death Data. The association between prolonged sitting and CKD, the incidence of ESRD, and death were assessed using logistic regression models to compute odds ratios (ORs) and Cox proportional hazards models for hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

More than half of the participants, i.e., 265,948 (58.4%), were categorized as "prolonged sitting" during their work. During a median of 13 years of follow-up, we identified 2227 individuals undergoing dialysis and 25,671 deaths. Prolonged occupational sitting was significantly associated with a higher risk of CKD (OR: 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 1.31), ESRD (HR: 1.19, 95% CI 1.03, 1.38), and kidney-specific mortality (HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.07, 1.91) compared to mostly standing participants after controlling for physical activity and other risk factors. Inactive prolonged sitting carries a significantly higher risk of ESRD than physically active mostly standing participants (HR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.04, 1.73). However, active prolonged sitting decreased the risk of ESRD (HR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.79, 1.34) compared to inactive prolonged sitting.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest that prolonged occupational sitting is associated with a greater risk of the spectrum of kidney disease, proteinuria, CKD, dialysis (ESRD), and mortality for all causes and kidney diseases. Physical activity, even at a minimal level of 15 min/day (90 min/week) of moderate-intensity exercise, was associated with a reduction in these risks.

The World Hypertension League Science of Salt: a regularly updated systematic review of salt and health outcomes studies (Sept 2019 to Dec 2020)

The World Hypertension League Science of Salt health outcomes review series highlights high-quality publications relating to salt intake and health outcomes. This review uses a standardised method, outlined in previous reviews and based on methods developed by WHO, to identify and critically appraise published articles on dietary salt intake and health outcomes. We identified 41 articles published between September 2019 to December 2020. Amongst these, two studies met the pre-specified methodological quality criteria for critical appraisal. They were prospective cohort studies and examined physical performance and composite renal outcomes as health outcomes. Both found an association between increased/higher sodium intake and poorer health outcomes. Few studies meet criteria for high-quality methods. This review adds further evidence that dietary salt reduction has health benefits and strengthens evidence relating to health outcomes other than blood pressure and cardiovascular disease. We observe that most studies on dietary sodium do not have adequate methodology to reliably assess sodium intake and its association with health outcomes.

Hypertension management in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities

Arterial hypertension is a leading cause of death globally. Due to ageing, the rising incidence of obesity, and socioeconomic and environmental changes, its incidence increases worldwide. Hypertension commonly coexists with Type 2 diabetes, obesity, dyslipidaemia, sedentary lifestyle, and smoking leading to risk amplification. Blood pressure lowering by lifestyle modifications and antihypertensive drugs reduce cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Guidelines recommend dual- and triple-combination therapies using renin–angiotensin system blockers, calcium channel blockers, and/or a diuretic. Comorbidities often complicate management. New drugs such as angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors, sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, and non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists improve CV and renal outcomes. Catheter-based renal denervation could offer an alternative treatment option in comorbid hypertension associated with increased sympathetic nerve activity. This review summarises the latest clinical evidence for managing hypertension with CV comorbidities.

Longitudinal association of handgrip strength with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in older adults using a causal framework

To date, there is no study addressing the time-varying confounding bias in the association of handgrip strength (HGS) with all-cause or cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, we conducted marginal structural models (MSM) to provide causal estimations on the associations of HGS with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a representative sample of adults aged 50 years or older. Data from 29 countries including 121,116 participants (276,994 observations; mean age 63.7 years; 56.3 % women) free from prior heart attack or stroke were retrieved from consecutive waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). During a median of 7.7 years follow-up (interquartile range 3.8-11.8) and 1,009,862 person-years, 6407 participants (5.3 %) died due to all causes, and 2263 (1.9 %) died due to cardiovascular diseases. Using repeated measures of handheld dynamometry, we determined absolute and relative to body mass index HGS of each participant. We applied adjusted MSM to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) associated with changes over time in HGS addressing the time-varying confounding bias. An increase of 5 kg in HGS was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause [HR 0.86, 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.86-0.90], overall cardiovascular (HR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.82-0.86), heart attack (HR 0.90, 95 % CI 0.86-0.95), and stroke (HR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.82-0.90) mortality. The associations of relative HGS were of stronger magnitude in all cases. Our findings provide critical evidence on the importance of increasing general muscle strength in older adults to reduce mortality risk, particularly concerning cardiovascular causes.

Association Among Polyphenol Intake, Uric Acid, and Hyperuricemia: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in a Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

Background Dietary polyphenol intake has been associated with a decreased risk of hyperuricemia, but most of this knowledge comes from preclinical studies. The aim of the present study was to assess the association of the intake of different classes of polyphenols with serum uric acid and hyperuricemia. Methods and Results This cross-sectional analysis involved baseline data of 6332 participants. Food polyphenol content was estimated by a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and from the Phenol-Explorer database. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models with serum uric acid (milligrams per deciliter) as the outcome and polyphenol intake (quintiles) as the main independent variable were fitted. Cox regression models with constant follow-up time (t=1) were performed to estimate the prevalence ratios (PRs) of hyperuricemia (≥7 mg/dL in men and ≥6 mg/dL in women). An inverse association between the intake of the phenolic acid class (β coefficient, -0.17 mg/dL for quintile 5 versus quintile 1 [95% CI, -0.27 to -0.06]) and hydroxycinnamic acids (β coefficient, -0.19 [95% CI, -0.3 to -0.09]), alkylmethoxyphenols (β coefficient, -0.2 [95% CI, -0.31 to -0.1]), and methoxyphenols (β coefficient, -0.24 [95% CI, -0.34 to -0.13]) subclasses with serum uric acid levels and hyperuricemia (PR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.71-0.95]; PR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.71-0.95]; PR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.92]; and PR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.69-0.91]; respectively) was found. The intake of hydroxybenzoic acids was directly and significantly associated with mean serum uric acid levels (β coefficient, 0.14 for quintile 5 versus quintile 1 [95% CI, 0.02-0.26]) but not with hyperuricemia. Conclusions In individuals with metabolic syndrome, a higher intake of some polyphenol subclasses (hydroxycinnamic acids, alkylmethoxyphenol, and methoxyphenol) was inversely associated with serum uric acid levels and hyperuricemia. Nevertheless, our findings warrant further research.

No Association of Early Postoperative Heart Rate With Outcomes After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

BACKGROUND

Elevated perioperative heart rate potentially causes perioperative myocardial injury because of imbalance in oxygen supply and demand. However, large multicenter studies evaluating early postoperative heart rate and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of 4 postoperative heart rate assessment methods with in-hospital MACCEs after elective coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

METHODS

Using data from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States from 2014 to 2015, the study evaluated postoperative heart rate measured during hospitalization within 24 hours after intensive care unit admission. Four heart rate assessment methods were evaluated: maximum heart rate, duration above heart rate 100/min, area above heart rate 100/min, and time-weighted average heart rate. The outcome was in-hospital MACCEs, defined as a composite of in-hospital death, myocardial infarction, angina, arrhythmia, heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, or repeat revascularization.

RESULTS

Among 2585 patients, the crude rate of in-hospital MACCEs was 6.2%. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for in-hospital MAC-CEs assessed by maximum heart rate in each heart rate category (beats per minute: >100-110, >110-120, >120-130, and >130) were 1.43 (0.95-2.15), 0.98 (0.56-1.64), 1.47 (0.76-2.69), and 1.71 (0.80-3.35), respectively. Similarly, none of the other 3 methods were associated with MACCEs.

CONCLUSIONS

More research is needed to assess the usefulness of heart rate measurement in patients after CABG.

Nutrient patterns are associated with discordant apoB and LDL: a population-based analysis

Individuals with discordantly high apoB to LDL-cholesterol levels carry a higher risk of atherosclerotic CVD compared with those with average or discordantly low apoB to LDL-cholesterol. We aimed to determine associations between apoB and LDL-cholesterol discordance in relation to nutrient patterns (NP) using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Participants were grouped by established LDL-cholesterol and apoB cut-offs (Group 1: low apoB/low LDL-cholesterol, Group 2: low apoB/high LDL-cholesterol, Group 3: high apoB/low LDL-cholesterol, Group 4: high apoB/high LDL-cholesterol). Principle component analysis was used to define NP. Machine learning (ML) and structural equation models were applied to assess associations of nutrient intake with apoB/LDL-cholesterol discordance using the combined effects of apoB and LDL-cholesterol. Three NP explained 63·2 % of variance in nutrient consumption. These consisted of NP1 rich in SFA, carbohydrate and vitamins, NP2 high in fibre, minerals, vitamins and PUFA and NP3 rich in dietary cholesterol, protein and Na. The discordantly high apoB to LDL-cholesterol group had the highest consumption of the NP1 and the lowest consumption of the NP2. ML showed nutrients that had the greatest unfavourable dietary contribution to individuals with discordantly high apoB to LDL-cholesterol were total fat, SFA and thiamine and the greatest favourable contributions were MUFA, folate, fibre and Se. Individuals with discordantly high apoB in relation to LDL-cholesterol had greater adherence to NP1, whereas those with lower levels of apoB, irrespective of LDL-cholesterol, were more likely to consume NP3.

An Overview of Methods and Exemplars of the Use of Mendelian Randomisation in Nutritional Research

Objectives: It is crucial to elucidate the causal relevance of nutritional exposures (such as dietary patterns, food intake, macronutrients intake, circulating micronutrients), or biomarkers in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in order to find effective strategies for NCD prevention. Classical observational studies have found evidence of associations between nutritional exposures and NCD development, but such studies are prone to confounding and other biases. This has direct relevance for translation research, as using unreliable evidence can lead to the failure of trials of nutritional interventions. Facilitated by the availability of large-scale genetic data, Mendelian randomization studies are increasingly used to ascertain the causal relevance of nutritional exposures and biomarkers for many NCDs. Methods: A narrative overview was conducted in order to demonstrate and describe the utility of Mendelian randomization studies, for individuals with little prior knowledge engaged in nutritional epidemiological research. Results: We provide an overview, rationale and basic description of the methods, as well as strengths and limitations of Mendelian randomization studies. We give selected examples from the contemporary nutritional literature where Mendelian randomization has provided useful evidence on the potential causal relevance of nutritional exposures. Conclusions: The selected exemplars demonstrate the importance of well-conducted Mendelian randomization studies as a robust tool to prioritize nutritional exposures for further investigation.

Mendelian randomization of circulating proteome identifies actionable targets in heart failure

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent cause of mortality and morbidity. The molecular drivers of HF are still largely unknown.

Results

We aimed to identify circulating proteins causally associated with HF by leveraging genome-wide genetic association data for HF including 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with multiple cis instruments as well as network and enrichment analysis using data from blood protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) (2,965 blood proteins) measured in 3,301 individuals. Nineteen blood proteins were causally associated with HF, were not subject to reverse causality and were enriched in ligand-receptor and glycosylation molecules. Network pathway analysis of the blood proteins showed enrichment in NF-kappa B, TGF beta, lipid in atherosclerosis and fluid shear stress. Cross-phenotype analysis of HF identified genetic overlap with cardiovascular drugs, myocardial infarction, parental longevity and low-density cholesterol. Multi-trait MR identified causal associations between HF-associated blood proteins and cardiovascular outcomes. Multivariable MR showed that association of BAG3, MIF and APOA5 with HF were mediated by the blood pressure and coronary artery disease. According to the directional effect and biological action, 7 blood proteins are targets of existing drugs or are tractable for the development of novel therapeutics. Among the pathways, sialyl Lewis x and the activin type II receptor are potential druggable candidates.

Conclusions

Integrative MR analyses of the blood proteins identified causally-associated proteins with HF and revealed pleiotropy of the blood proteome with cardiovascular risk factors. Some of the proteins or pathway related mechanisms could be targeted as novel treatment approach in HF.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-022-08811-2.

Association of nighttime physical activity with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: Results from the NHANES

Background

Nighttime physical activity (PA) has significant effects on human health. Whether excessive nighttime PA is associated with adverse long-term prognosis remains unknown.

Methods

Three thousand six hundred ninety adults from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2006 with accelerometer monitor recording PA data were included. Nighttime PA was quantified by the nighttime to all-day PA intensity ratio (NAPAIR). Participants with the NAPAIR above the population median (0.17) were defined as the nighttime active population (NAP), otherwise as the daytime active population. All-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality status was acquired from the US National Death Index from their interview and physical examination date through December 31, 2015.

Results

Among 3690 adults (weighted mean age 48.1 years), 1781 (weighted proportion 48.8%) were females. One thousand eight hundred six (48.9%) were determined as the NAP. During the follow-up period of up to 13.1 years (median, 10.7 years), 639 deaths occurred (heart diseases, 114). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards model showed that the NAP was associated with higher risks of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22–1.75) and cardiovascular disease (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.03–2.41) mortality compared with the daytime active population, and each 0.1 increase in the NAPAIR was associated with 15% increased all-cause mortality risks.

Conclusion

In this nationally representative prospective cohort study of a sample of United States adults, excessive nighttime PA was associated with a higher risk of death from all causes and cardiovascular disease.

Association Between Change in Leisure-Time Physical Activity During the Postretirement Period and Incident Stroke

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association of change in leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) occurring during the postretirement period with incident stroke.

METHODS

The current study enrolled 12,644 retired workers from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort from April to October 2013. The change in LTPA was categorized as follows, according to whether the LTPA time met the WHO recommended minimum (at least 150 minutes per week): (1) stayed inactive at both surveys; (2) stayed inactive at the 2008 survey but became active at the 2013 survey; (3) stayed active at the 2008 survey but became inactive at the 2013 survey; (4) stayed active at both surveys. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the association between change in LTPA and the risk of incident stroke.

RESULTS

During 70,437 person-years of follow-up, we documented 549 incident stroke cases, including 434 incident ischemic stroke cases and 115 incident hemorrhagic stroke (HS) cases. Compared with participants who stayed active at both the 2008 and 2013 surveys, those who were active at the 2008 survey but became inactive at the 2013 survey had significantly higher risks of incident total stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.30, 95% CI 1.03, 1.65) and HS (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.51, 3.63). When stratified by body mass index (BMI) categories, a significant elevated risk of total stroke was seen among overweight participants who stayed active at the 2008 survey but became inactive at the 2013 survey (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.20, 2.27). The risk of incident stroke decreased with increasing LTPA levels between the 2 surveys (HR of per 150 min/wk increase of LTPA: HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94, 1.00). In addition, we found that compared with participants who maintained their BMI and stayed active at both the 2008 and 2013 surveys, those who were inactive at both points or who became inactive had higher risks of stroke (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.09, 4.15; HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.07, 2.08, respectively).

DISCUSSION

Among Chinese older adults, increasing LTPA levels during the postretirement period was associated with a lower risk of incident stroke. Retired individuals should be encouraged to participate in LTPA more frequently to lessen future risk of incident stroke.

Device-measured physical activity, adiposity and mortality: a harmonised meta-analysis of eight prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

The joint associations of total and intensity-specific physical activity with obesity in relation to all-cause mortality risk are unclear.

METHODS

We included 34 492 adults (72% women, median age 62.1 years, 2034 deaths during follow-up) in a harmonised meta-analysis of eight population-based prospective cohort studies with mean follow-up ranging from 6.0 to 14.5 years. Standard body mass index categories were cross-classified with sample tertiles of device-measured total, light-to-vigorous and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and sedentary time. In five cohorts with waist circumference available, high and low waist circumference was combined with tertiles of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity.

RESULTS

There was an inverse dose-response relationship between higher levels of total and intensity-specific physical activity and mortality risk in those who were normal weight and overweight. In individuals with obesity, the inverse dose-response relationship was only observed for total physical activity. Similarly, lower levels of sedentary time were associated with lower mortality risk in normal weight and overweight individuals but there was no association between sedentary time and risk of mortality in those who were obese. Compared with the obese-low total physical activity reference, the HRs were 0.59 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.79) for normal weight-high total activity and 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94) for obese-high total activity. In contrast, normal weight-low total physical activity was associated with a higher risk of mortality compared with the obese-low total physical activity reference (1.28; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.67).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower risk of mortality irrespective of weight status. Compared with obesity-low physical activity, there was no survival benefit of being normal weight if physical activity levels were low.

Exploring the most important factors related to self-perceived health among older men in Sweden: a cross-sectional study using machine learning

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate which factors are the most strongly related to self-perceived health among older men and describe the shape of the association between the related factors and self-perceived health using machine learning.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This is a cross-sectional study within the population-based VAScular and Chronic Obstructive Lung disease study (VASCOL) conducted in southern Sweden in 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 475 older men aged 73 years from the VASCOL dataset.

MEASURES

Self-perceived health was measured using the first item of the Short Form 12. An extreme gradient-boosting model was trained to classify self-perceived health as better (rated: excellent or very good) or worse (rated: fair or poor) using self-reported data on 19 prevalent physician-diagnosed health conditions, intensity of 9 symptoms and 9 demographic and lifestyle factors. Importance of factors was measured in SHapley Additive exPlanations absolute mean and higher scores correspond to greater importance.

RESULTS

The most important factors for classifying self-perceived health were: pain (0.629), sleep quality (0.595), breathlessness (0.549), fatigue (0.542) and depression (0.526). Health conditions ranked well below symptoms and lifestyle variables. Low levels of symptoms, good sleep quality, regular exercise, alcohol consumption and a body mass index between 22 and 28 were associated with better self-perceived health.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptoms are more strongly related to self-perceived health than health conditions, which suggests that the impacts of health conditions are mediated through symptoms, which could be important targets to improve self-perceived health. Machine learning offers a new way to assess composite constructs such as well-being or quality of life.

Causes of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death in the ISCHEMIA trial

BACKGROUND

The International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches trial demonstrated no overall difference in the composite primary endpoint and the secondary endpoints of cardiovascular (CV) death/myocardial infarction or all-cause mortality between an initial invasive or conservative strategy among participants with chronic coronary disease and moderate or severe myocardial ischemia. Detailed cause-specific death analyses have not been reported.

METHODS

We compared overall and cause-specific death rates by treatment group using Cox models with adjustment for pre-specified baseline covariates. Cause of death was adjudicated by an independent Clinical Events Committee as CV, non-CV, and undetermined. We evaluated the association of risk factors and treatment strategy with cause of death.

RESULTS

Four-year cumulative incidence rates for CV death were similar between invasive and conservative strategies (2.6% vs 3.0%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.98; 95% CI [0.70-1.38]), but non-CV death rates were higher in the invasive strategy (3.3% vs 2.1%; HR 1.45 [1.00-2.09]). Overall, 13% of deaths were attributed to undetermined causes (38/289). Fewer undetermined deaths (0.6% vs 1.3%; HR 0.48 [0.24-0.95]) and more malignancy deaths (2.0% vs 0.8%; HR 2.11 [1.23-3.60]) occurred in the invasive strategy than in the conservative strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

In International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches, all-cause and CV death rates were similar between treatment strategies. The observation of fewer undetermined deaths and more malignancy deaths in the invasive strategy remains unexplained. These findings should be interpreted with caution in the context of prior studies and the overall trial results.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, and associated risk factors in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania: a cross-sectional study

Background

Empirical evidence on the epidemiology of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia is limited in many countries in Central and Eastern Europe. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania, and to identify the risk factors for the three chronic conditions.

Methods

We analysed cross-sectional data from the HAPIEE study, including adults aged 45–69 years in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania, collected between 2002 and 2008 (total sample N = 30,882). Among prevalent cases, we estimated awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia by gender and country. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify associated risk factors.

Results

In each country among both men and women, we found high prevalence but low control of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. Awareness rates of hypertension were the lowest in both men (61.40%) and women (69.21%) in the Czech Republic, while awareness rates of hypercholesterolemia were the highest in both men (46.51%) and women (51.20%) in Poland. Polish participants also had the highest rates of awareness (77.37% in men and 79.53% in women), treatment (71.99% in men and 74.87% in women) and control (30.98% in men and 38.08% in women) of diabetes. The common risk factors for the three chronic conditions were age, gender, education, obesity and alcohol consumption.

Conclusions

Patterns of awareness, treatment and control rates of hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia differed by country. Efforts should be made in all four countries to control these conditions, including implementation of international guidelines in everyday practice to improve detection and effective management of these conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13260-3.