Abnormal outcomes following cervical cancer screening: event duration and health utility loss

Targeting treatment resistance in cervical cancer: A new avenue for senolytic therapies

Cervical cancer poses a significant global health challenge, particularly impacting women in economically developing nations. This disparity stems from a combination of factors, including inadequate screening infrastructure and resource limitations. However, the foremost contributor is the widespread lack of awareness and limited accessibility to Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, which is a key preventative measure against cervical cancer development. Despite advancements in cervical cancer prevention, treatment resistance remains a major hurdle in achieving improved patient outcomes. Cellular senescence, specifically the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) and its bidirectional relationship with the immune system, has been implicated in resistance to conventional cervical cancer chemotherapy treatments. The exact mechanisms by which this state of growth arrest and the associated changes in immune regulation contribute to cervical cancer progression and the associated drug resistance are not entirely understood. This underscores the necessity for innovative strategies to address the prevalence of treatment-resistant cervical cancer, with one promising avenue being the utilisation of senolytics. Senolytics are agents that have promising efficacy in clearing senescent cells from tumour tissues, however neither the utilisation of senolytics for addressing senescence-induced treatment resistance nor the potential integration of immunotherapy as senolytic agents in cervical cancer treatment has been explored to date. This review provides a concise overview of the mechanisms underlying senescence induction and the pivotal role of the immune system in this process. Additionally, it explores various senolytic approaches that hold significant potential for advancing cervical cancer research.

The impact of alternate HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies in Japan: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

The Japanese 2020 cervical screening guidelines recommend conventional cervical cytology screening every 2-years for women aged 20-69 years. The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has also recently been approved in Japan. We therefore evaluated the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies alongside universal nonavalent HPV vaccination of girls (12-16 years).

Methods

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an age-specific Markov microsimulation model for Japan to evaluate total costs, quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), colposcopies, biopsies, precancer and cervical cancer treatments for 29 combined vaccination and screening strategies (conventional cytology, liquid-based cytology (LBC), HPV testing, and HPV self-collection). A cohort of 100,000 girls (12-16 years old) over a lifetime offered the nonavalent HPV vaccine was used (current vaccination coverage = 0.08%, current screening coverage = 43.7%). A discount rate of 3% was applied to costs and QALYs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess robustness of the findings. Costs were reported in US dollars (2023).

Findings

Compared with conventional cytology, evaluated strategies would incur an additional cost of US$839,280-738,182,669 and gain 62,755-247,347 quality-adjusted-life-years. HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be most cost-effective (ICER = US$7511 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 1-times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the probability of it being cost-effective was 70%. At historically high vaccination coverage (70%) ICERs decreased overall but did not affect the ranking of the most cost-effective strategy. While a 5-yearly interval became more cost-effective than a 3-yearly interval. Including HPV self-collection for under-screened women made all strategies more cost-effective.

Interpretation

At current cervical screening participation (43.7%) and low vaccination coverage (<1.0%), HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be the most cost-effective screening strategy compared to conventional cytology (2-yearly).

Funding

Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H03589) and Grants of the National Cancer Center Japan (Gan Kenkyu Kaihatsuhi 31-A-20 and 2023-A-23).

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Japan: A comparison of 2-valent, 4-valent, and 9-valent HPV vaccines with consideration of cross-protection

OBJECTIVE

In April 2023, the Japanese Health Ministry panel approved the inclusion of the 9-valent human papillomavirus (9vHPV) vaccine in the National Immunization Program, alongside the 2-valent (2vHPV) and 4-valent HPV (4vHPV) vaccines. In response to this, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of these three vaccines for routine immunization of girls aged 12-16 in Japan, considering the cross-protection of 2vHPV and 4vHPV vaccines.

METHODS

We constructed an age-structured mathematical model for HPV transmission, aiming to quantify the economic and epidemiological effects of various HPV vaccination strategies over a 70-year period in Japan. We determined incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each strategy, applying a 3% annual discount. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of our model results, with all evaluations done in 2023.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that the HPV vaccination program in Japan will significantly reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases. All HPV vaccination strategies, using the 2vHPV, 4vHPV, and 9vHPV vaccines, were found to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of ¥971,447/QALY, ¥1,237,297/QALY, and ¥742,084/QALY, respectively. Direct comparisons between vaccines demonstrated that the 9vHPV vaccination was more cost-effective than the 2vHPV vaccination, whereas 4vHPV vaccination was dominated by 2vHPV vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validates the cost-effectiveness of implementing the 9vHPV vaccine as the primary option over the 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccine for girls in Japan. These findings underscore the need to improve the acceptance rate and coverage of HPV vaccinations in the country.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of HPV Extended versus Partial Genotyping for Cervical Cancer Screening in Singapore

Human papillomavirus (HPV) partial genotyping (PGT) identifies HPV16 and HPV18 individually, alongside 12 other high-risk HPV genotypes (hrHPV) collectively. HPV extended genotyping (XGT) identifies four additional hrHPV individually (HPV31, 45, 51, and 52), and reports the remaining eight in three groups (HPV33|58; 56|59|66; 35|39|68). Quality-adjusted life years (QALY), health care resource use, and costs of XGT were compared to PGT for cervical cancer screening in Singapore using DICE simulation. Women with one of the three hrHPV identified by XGT (HPV35|39|68; 56|59|66; 51), and atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) on cytology, are recalled for a repeat screening in one year, instead of undergoing an immediate colposcopy with PGT. At the repeat screening, the colposcopy is performed only for persistent same-genotype infections in XGT, while with PGT, all the women with persistent HPV have a colposcopy. Screening 500,122 women, aged 30-69, with XGT, provided an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus PGT of SGD 16,370/QALY, with 7130 (19.4%) fewer colposcopies, 6027 (7.0%) fewer cytology tests, 9787 (1.6%) fewer clinic consultations, yet 2446 (0.5%) more HPV tests. The XGT ICER remains well below SGD 100,000 in sensitivity analyses, (-SGD 17,736/QALY to SGD 50,474/QALY). XGT is cost-effective compared to PGT, utilizes fewer resources, and provides a risk-based approach as the primary cervical cancer screening method.

Priorities among effective clinical preventive services in British Columbia, Canada

BACKGROUND

Despite the long-standing experience of rating the evidence for clinical preventive services, the delivery of effective clinical preventive services in Canada and elsewhere is less than optimal. We outline an approach used in British Columbia to assist in determining which effective clinical preventive services are worth doing.

METHODS

We calculated the clinically preventable burden and cost-effectiveness for 28 clinical preventive services that received a 'strong or conditional (weak) recommendation for' by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care or an 'A' or 'B' rating by the United States Preventive Services Task Force. Clinically preventable burden is the total quality adjusted life years that could be gained if the clinical preventive services were delivered at recommended intervals to a British Columbia birth cohort of 40,000 individuals over the years of life that the service is recommended. Cost-effectiveness is the net cost per quality adjusted life year gained.

RESULTS

Clinical preventive services with the highest population impact and best value for money include services that address tobacco use in adolescents and adults, exclusive breastfeeding, and screening for hypertension and other cardiovascular disease risk factors followed by appropriate pharmaceutical treatment. In addition, alcohol misuse screening and brief counseling, one-time screening for hepatitis C virus infection in British Columbia adults born between 1945 and 1965, and screening for type 2 diabetes approach these high-value clinical preventive services.

CONCLUSIONS

These results enable policy makers to say with some confidence what preventive manoeuvres are worth doing but further work is required to determine the best way to deliver these services to all those eligible and to establish what supportive services are required. After all, if a clinical preventive service is worth doing, it is worth doing well.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in Singapore

BACKGROUND

The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been shown to extend protection against oncogenic HPV types 31/33/45/52/58 (HPV-OV) not covered by the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines. Besides its clinical benefit, evidence on the economic value of the nonavalent vaccine is required to inform local vaccination strategies and funding decisions. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of replacing the bivalent vaccine with the nonavalent vaccine in the national school-based HPV vaccination programme in Singapore.

METHODS

An existing age-structured dynamic transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations was adapted to project the health and economic impact of vaccinating 13-year-old girls with two doses of the nonavalent or bivalent HPV vaccines in Singapore. Direct costs (in Singapore dollars, S$) were obtained from public healthcare institutions in Singapore, while health state utilities were sourced from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon, from a healthcare system perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to obtain the ICERs and corresponding variations across variable uncertainty. Particularly, this study tested the scenarios of lifelong and 20-year vaccine-induced protection, assumed 96.0% and 22.3% cross-protection against HPV-OV by nonavalent and bivalent vaccines respectively, and fixed vaccine prices per dose at S$188 for nonavalent and S$61.50 for bivalent vaccines.

RESULTS

Compared with the bivalent vaccine, the use of the nonavalent vaccine was associated with an ICER of S$61,629 per quality-adjusted life year gained in the base case. The result was robust across a range of plausible input values, and to assumptions regarding the duration of vaccine protection.

CONCLUSION

Given the high ICER, the nonavalent vaccine is unlikely to represent a cost-effective option compared with the bivalent vaccine for school-based HPV vaccination of 13-year old female students in Singapore. Substantial price reductions would be required to justify its inclusion in the school-based programme in the future.

Online Cost-Effectiveness ANalysis (OCEAN): a user-friendly interface to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses for cervical cancer

Background

Most cost-effectiveness analyses in the context of cervical cancer prevention involve the use of mathematical models to simulate HPV infection, cervical disease and prevention strategies. However, it is common for professionals who would need to perform these analyses to not be familiar with the models. This work introduces the Online Cost-Effectiveness ANalysis tool, featuring an easy-to-use web interface providing health professionals, researchers and decision makers involved in cervical cancer prevention programmes with a useful instrument to conduct complex cost-effectiveness analyses, which are becoming an essential tool as an approach for supporting decision-making that involves important trade-offs.

Results

The users can run cost-effectiveness evaluations of cervical cancer prevention strategies without deep knowledge of the underlying mathematical model or any programming language, obtaining the most relevant costs and health outcomes in a user-friendly format. The results provided by the tool are consistent with the existing literature.

Conclusions

Having such a tool will be an asset to the cervical cancer prevention community, providing researchers with an easy-to-use instrument to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses.

Cost-effectiveness of a stepwise intervention to promote adherence to cervical cancer screening

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer screening is effective in reducing mortality, but adherence is generally low. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a stepwise intervention to promote adherence to cervical cancer screening in Portugal.

METHODS

We developed a decision tree model to compare the cost-effectiveness of four competing interventions to increase adherence to cervical cancer screening: (i) a written letter (standard-of-care); (ii) automated short message service text messages (SMS)/phone calls/reminders; (iii) automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls; (iv) automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls + face-to-face interviews. The main outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) measured over a 5-year time horizon. Costs were calculated from the societal and provider perspectives.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective, the optimal strategy was automated SMS/phone calls/reminders, below a threshold of €8171 per QALY; above this and below €180 878 per QALY, the most cost-effective strategy was automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls and above this value automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls + face-to-face interviews. From the provider perspective, the ranking of the three strategies in terms of cost-effectiveness was the same, for thresholds of €2756 and €175 463 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of one time the national gross domestic product (€22 398/QALY), automated SMS/phone calls/reminders + manual phone calls is a cost-effective strategy to promote adherence to cervical cancer screening, both from the societal and provider perspectives.

Modeling the Balance of Benefits and Harms of Cervical Cancer Screening with Cytology and Human Papillomavirus Testing

BACKGROUND

Benefits of screening should outweigh its potential harms. We compared various metrics to assess the balance of benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening.

METHODS

We used a cervical cancer natural history Markov model calibrated to the Canadian context to simulate 100,000 unvaccinated women over a lifetime of screening with either cytology every 3 years or human papillomavirus (HPV) testing every 5 years. We estimated the balance of benefits and harms attributable to screening using various metrics, including colposcopies/life-year gained, and net lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, a measure integrating women's health preferences. We present the average (minimum-maximum) model predictions.

RESULTS

Cytology-based screening led to 1,319,854 screening tests, 30,395 colposcopies, 13,504 life-years gained over a lifetime, 98 screening tests/life-year gained, 2.3 (1.6-3.3) colposcopies/life-year gained, and a net lifetime gain of 10,735 QALY (5,040-17,797). HPV-based screening with cytology triage in the same population would lead to 698,250 screening tests, 73,296 colposcopies, 15,066 life-years gained over a lifetime, 46 screening tests/life-year gained, 4.9 colposcopies/life-year gained (2.9-11.1), and a net lifetime gain of 11,690 QALY (4,409-18,742). HPV-based screening was predicted to prevent more cancers, but also incur more screening harms than cytology-based screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Metrics using colposcopies as the main harm outcome favored cytology-based screening, whereas metrics based on screening tests and health preferences tended to favor HPV-based screening strategies.

IMPACT

Whether HPV-based screening will improve the balance between benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening depends on how the balance between benefits and harms is assessed.

Disutility associated with cancer screening programs: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Disutility allows to identify how much population values intervention-related harms contributing to knowledge on the benefits/harms ratio of cancer screening programs. This systematic review evaluates disutility related to cancer screening applying a utility theory framework.

METHODS

Using a predefined protocol, Embase, Medline Ovid, Web of Science, Cochrane, Google scholar and supplementary sources were systematically searched. The framework grouped disutilities associated with breast, cervical, lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer screening programs into the screening, diagnostic work up, and treatment phases. We assessed the quality of included studies according to the relevance to target population, risk of bias, appropriateness of measure and the time frame.

RESULTS

Out of 2840 hits, we included 38 studies, of which 27 measured (and others estimated) disutilities. Around 70% of studies had medium to high-level quality. Measured disutilities and Quality Adjusted Life Years loss were 0-0.03 and 0-0.0013 respectively in screening phases. Both disutilities and Quality Adjusted Life Years loss had similar ranges in diagnostic work up (0-0.26), and treatment (0.09-0.27) phases. We found no measured disutilities available for lung cancer screening and-little evidence for disutilities in treatment phase. Almost 40% of the estimated disutility values were above the range of measured ones.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer screening programs led to low disutities related to screening phase, and low to moderate disutilities related to diagnostic work up and treatment phases. These disutility values varied by the measurement instrument applied, and were higher in studies with lower quality. The estimated disutility values comparing to the measured ones tended to overestimate the harms.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection worldwide. It causes several health consequences, in particular accounting for the majority of cervical cancer cases in women. In the United Kingdom, a vaccination campaign targeting 12-year-old girls started in 2008; this campaign has been successful, with high uptake and reduced HPV prevalence observed in vaccinated cohorts. Recently, attention has focused on vaccinating both sexes, due to HPV-related diseases in males (particularly for high-risk men who have sex with men) and an equity argument over equalising levels of protection.

METHODS

We constructed an epidemiological model for HPV transmission in the UK, accounting for nine of the most common HPV strains. We complemented this with an economic model to determine the likely health outcomes (healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years) for individuals from the epidemiological model. We then tested vaccination with the three HPV vaccines currently available, vaccinating either girls alone or both sexes. For each strategy we calculated the threshold price per vaccine dose, i.e. the maximum amount paid for the added health benefits of vaccination to be worth the cost of each vaccine dose. We calculated results at 3.5% discounting, and also 1.5%, to consider the long-term health effects of HPV infection.

RESULTS

At 3.5% discounting, continuing to vaccinate girls remains highly cost-effective compared to halting vaccination, with threshold dose prices of £56-£108. Vaccination of girls and boys is less cost-effective (£25-£53). Compared to vaccinating girls only, adding boys to the programme is not cost-effective, with negative threshold prices (-£6 to -£3) due to the costs of administration. All threshold prices increase when using 1.5% discounting, and adding boys becomes cost-effective (£36-£47). These results are contingent on the UK's high vaccine uptake; for lower uptake rates, adding boys (at the same uptake rate) becomes more cost effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating girls is extremely cost-effective compared with no vaccination, vaccinating both sexes is less so. Adding boys to an already successful girls-only programme has a low cost-effectiveness, as males have high protection through herd immunity. If future health effects are weighted more heavily, threshold prices increase and vaccination becomes cost-effective.

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of primary cytology versus human papillomavirus testing for cervical cancer screening in England

OBJECTIVES

In England, human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is to replace cytological screening by 2019-2020. We conducted a model-based economic evaluation to project the long-term clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of routine cytology versus HPV testing.

METHODS

An individual-based model of HPV acquisition, natural history, and cervical cancer screening was used to compare cytological screening and HPV testing with cytology triage for women aged 25-64 years (with either 3- or 5-year screening intervals for women aged under 50 years). The model was fitted to data from England's National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme. Both clinical and economic outcomes were projected to inform cost-effectiveness analyses.

RESULTS

HPV testing is likely to decrease annual cytology testing (by 2.76 million), cervical cancer incidence (by 290 cases), and health system costs (by £13 million). It may increase the number of colposcopies, although this could be reduced without leading to more cancers compared with primary cytology by increasing the interval between screens to 5 years. The impact in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) depends on the quality of life weight given to colposcopies versus cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

England's move from cytology to HPV screening may potentially be life-saving and cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness can be improved further by extending the interval between screens or using alternative triage methods such as partial or full genotyping.

Estimating loss in quality of life associated with asthma-related crisis events (ESQUARE): a cohort, observational study

BACKGROUND

Evidence of quality of life implications of asthma attacks are limited, particularly when measured on a utility scale, which enables calculating Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) and comparisons with other health conditions and services. Therefore, this study sought to estimate the utility loss associated with an asthma-related crisis event (accident and emergency (A&E) attendance or hospital admission).

METHODS

Participants were recruited in a cohort study from A&E and hospital admissions at three UK hospitals. They completed the EuroQol-5 Dimensions 5-Level (EQ-5D-5 L), Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ), Time trade-off (TTO), and peak flow and symptom diary over 8 weeks, where three different methods (EQ-5D-5 L, AQLQ, and TTO), were used to estimate utilities. The mean difference between two time points were estimated using the Wilcoxon signed rank test.

RESULTS

From baseline to week 8, mean increases (95% CI) were estimated to be 0.086 (0.019-0.153), 0.154 (0.112-0.196) and 0.132 (0.063-0.201) for EQ-5D-5 L, AQL-5D (preference-based measure derived from AQLQ), and TTO respectively over 8 weeks (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Asthma crisis events are estimated to be associated with a mean utility loss of between 0.086 and 0.132. The utility decrement can be used to assign values to asthma-related crisis events, which can enhance economic evaluations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02771678 . Registered 13 May 2016.

Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for assessing suspected cervical abnormalities: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS)map (DySIS Medical Ltd, Edinburgh, UK) and ZedScan (Zilico Limited, Manchester, UK) can be used adjunctively with conventional colposcopy, which may improve the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and implementation of DySISmap and ZedScan as adjuncts to standard colposcopy, and to develop a cost-effectiveness model.

METHODS

Four parallel systematic reviews were performed on diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness issues, implementation and economic analyses. In January 2017 we searched databases (including MEDLINE and EMBASE) for studies in which DySISmap or ZedScan was used adjunctively with standard colposcopy to detect CIN or cancer in women referred to colposcopy. Risk of bias was assessed with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 tool. Summary estimates of diagnostic accuracy were calculated using bivariate and other regression models when appropriate. Other outcomes were synthesised narratively. A patient-level state-transition model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DySISmap and ZedScan under either human papillomavirus (HPV) triage or the HPV primary screening algorithm. The model included two types of clinics ['see and treat' and 'watchful waiting' (i.e. treat later after confirmatory biopsy)], as well as the reason for referral (low-grade or high-grade cytological smear). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included in the diagnostic review (nine of DySISmap and two of ZedScan), three were included in the clinical effectiveness review (two of DySISmap and one of ZedScan) and five were included in the implementation review (four of DySISmap and one of ZedScan). Adjunctive DySISmap use was found to have a higher sensitivity for detecting CIN grade 2+ (CIN 2+) lesions [81.25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 72.2% to 87.9%] than standard colposcopy alone (57.91%, 95% CI 47.2% to 67.9%), but with a lower specificity (70.40%, 95% CI 59.4% to 79.5%) than colposcopy (87.41%, 95% CI 81.7% to 91.5%). (Confidential information has been removed.) The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that adjunctive DySISmap routinely dominated standard colposcopy (it was less costly and more effective). The only exception was for high-grade referrals in a watchful-waiting clinic setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ZedScan varied between £272 and £4922 per quality-adjusted life-year. ZedScan also dominated colposcopy alone for high-grade referrals in see-and-treat clinics. These findings appeared to be robust to a wide range of sensitivity and scenario analyses.

LIMITATIONS

All but one study was rated as being at a high risk of bias. There was no evidence directly comparing ZedScan with standard colposcopy. No studies directly compared DySIS and ZedScan.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of adjunctive DySIS increases the sensitivity for detecting CIN 2+, so it increases the number of high-grade CIN cases that are detected. However, it also reduces specificity, so that more women with no or low-grade CIN will be incorrectly judged as possibly having high-grade CIN. The evidence for ZedScan was limited, but it appears to increase sensitivity and decrease specificity compared with colposcopy alone. The cost-effectiveness of both adjunctive technologies compared with standard colposcopy, under both the HPV triage and primary screening algorithms, appears to be favourable when compared with the conventional thresholds used to determine value in the NHS.

FUTURE WORK

More diagnostic accuracy studies of ZedScan are needed, as are studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy for women referred to colposcopy as part of the HPV primary screening programme.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017054515.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Simultaneously characterizing the comparative economics of routine female adolescent nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and assortativity of sexual mixing in Hong Kong Chinese: a modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Although routine vaccination of females before sexual debut against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been found to be cost-effective around the world, its cost-benefit has rarely been examined. We evaluate both the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong to guide its policy, and by extension that of mainland China, on HPV vaccination. One major obstacle is the lack of data on assortativity of sexual mixing. Such difficulty could be overcome by inferring sexual mixing parameters from HPV epidemiologic data.

METHODS

We use an age-structured transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations to estimate the health and economic impact of routine nonavalent HPV vaccination for girls at age 12 on cervical cancer burden and consider vaccine uptake at 25%, 50%, and 75% with at least 20 years of vaccine protection. Bayesian inference was employed to parameterize the model using local data on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence. We use the human capital approach in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and GDP per capita as the indicative willingness-to-pay threshold in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Finally, we estimate the threshold vaccine cost (TVC), which is the maximum cost for fully vaccinating one girl at which routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination is cost-beneficial or cost-effective.

RESULTS

As vaccine uptake increased, TVC decreased (i.e., economically more stringent) in the CBA but increased in the CEA. When vaccine uptake was 75% and the vaccine provided only 20 years of protection, the TVC was US$444 ($373-506) and $689 ($646-734) in the CBA and CEA, respectively, increasing by approximately 2-4% if vaccine protection was assumed lifelong. TVC is likely to be far higher when non-cervical diseases are included. The inferred sexual mixing parameters suggest that sexual mixing in Hong Kong is highly assortative by both age and sexual activity level.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old females is highly likely to be cost-beneficial and cost-effective in Hong Kong. Inference of sexual mixing parameters from epidemiologic data of prevalent sexually transmitted diseases (i.e., HPV, chlamydia, etc.) is a potentially fruitful but largely untapped methodology for understanding sexual behaviors in the population.

Present and future of cervical cancer prevention in Spain: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination within a nonorganized setting creates a poor cost-effectiveness scenario. However, framed within an organized screening including primary HPV DNA testing with lengthening intervals may provide the best health value for invested money. To compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different cervical cancer (CC) prevention strategies, including current status and new proposed screening practices, to inform health decision-makers in Spain, a Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HPV and CC. Outcomes included cases averted, life expectancy, reduction in the lifetime risk of CC, life years saved, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), net health benefits, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The willingness-to-pay threshold is defined at 20 000&OV0556;/QALY. Both costs and health outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. A strategy of 5-year organized HPV testing has similar effectiveness, but higher efficiency than 3-year cytology. Screening alone and vaccination combined with cytology are dominated by vaccination followed by 5-year HPV testing with cytology triage (12 214&OV0556;/QALY). The optimal age for both ending screening and switching age from cytology to HPV testing in older women is 5 years later for unvaccinated than for vaccinated women. Net health benefits decrease faster with diminishing vaccination coverage than screening coverage. Primary HPV DNA testing is more effective and cost-effective than current cytological screening. Vaccination uptake improvements and a gradual change toward an organized screening practice are critical components for achieving higher effectiveness and efficiency in the prevention of CC in Spain.

Impact of model calibration on cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention

Markov chain models are commonly used to simulate the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and subsequent cervical lesions with the aim of predicting future benefits of health interventions. Developing and calibrating these models entails making a number of critical decisions that will influence the ability of the model to reflect real conditions and predict future situations. Accuracy of selected inputs and calibration procedures are two of the crucial aspects for model performance and understanding their influence is essential, especially when involves policy decisions. The aim of this work is to assess the health and economic impact on cervical cancer prevention strategies currently under discussion according to the most common methods of model calibration combined with different accuracy degree of initial inputs. Model results show large differences on the goodness of fit and cost-effectiveness outcomes depending on the calibration approach used, and these variations may affect health policy decisions. Our findings strengthen the importance of obtaining good calibrated probability matrices to get reliable health and cost outcomes, and are directly generalizable to any cost-effectiveness analysis based on Markov chain models.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Germany

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in addition to the current cervical cancer screening programme in Germany using a dynamic transmission model.

METHODS

Based on a mathematical model simulating the transmission dynamics and the natural history of HPV infection and associated diseases (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts), we estimated the epidemiological and economic consequences of HPV vaccination with both the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines. In our base case analysis, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 12-year-old girls with a 3-dose schedule. In sensitivity analysis, we also evaluated the use of a 2-dose schedule and assessed the impact of vaccinating boys.

RESULTS

From a health care payer perspective, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of a 3-dose schedule were €34,249 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for the bivalent and €14,711 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. Inclusion of indirect costs decreased ICERs by up to 40%. When adopting a health care payer perspective, ICERs of a 2-dose approach decreased to €19,450 per QALY for the bivalent and to €3645 per QALY for the quadrivalent vaccine. From a societal perspective, a 2-dose approach using the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-saving strategy while using the bivalent vaccine resulted in an ICER of €13,248 per QALY. Irrespective of the perspective adopted, additional vaccination of boys resulted in ICERs exceeding €50,000 per QALY, except for scenarios with low coverage (20%) in girls.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model results suggest that routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with three doses is likely to be cost-effective in Germany. Due to the additional impact on genital warts, the quadrivalent vaccine appeared to be more cost-effective than the bivalent vaccine. A 2-dose schedule of the quadrivalent vaccine might even lead to cost savings when adopting a societal perspective. The cost-effectiveness of additional vaccination of boys was highly dependent on the coverage in girls.

Practice Bulletin No. 168: Cervical Cancer Screening and Prevention

The incidence of cervical cancer in the United States has decreased more than 50% in the past 30 years because of widespread screening. In 1975, the rate was 14.8 per 100,000 women. By 2011, it decreased to 6.7 per 100,000 women. Mortality from the disease has undergone a similar decrease from 5.55 per 100,000 women in 1975 to 2.3 per 100,000 women in 2011 (1). The American Cancer Society (ACS) estimated that there would be 12,900 new cases of cervical cancer in the United States in 2015, with 4,100 deaths from the disease (2). Cervical cancer is much more common worldwide, particularly in countries without screening programs, with an estimated 527,624 new cases of the disease and 265,672 resultant deaths each year (3). When cervical cancer screening programs have been introduced into communities, marked reductions in cervical cancer incidence have followed (4, 5).New technologies for cervical cancer screening continue to evolve, as do recommendations for managing the results. In addition, there are different risk-benefit considerations for women at different ages, as reflected in age-specific screening recommendations. In 2011, the ACS, the American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP), and the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP) updated their joint guidelines for cervical cancer screening (6), as did the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) (7). Subsequently, in 2015, ASCCP and the Society of Gynecologic Oncology (SGO) issued interim guidance for the use of a human papillomavirus (HPV) test for primary screening for cervical cancer that was approved in 2014 by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (8). The purpose of this document is to provide a review of the best available evidence regarding the prevention and early detection of cervical cancer.

Do clinical data and human papilloma virus genotype influence spontaneous regression in grade I cervical intraepithelial neoplasia?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether medical history, clinical examination and human papilloma virus (HPV) genotype influence spontaneous regression in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade I (CIN-I).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 232 women who were histologically diagnosed as have CIN-I by means of Kaplan-Meier curves, the pattern of spontaneous regression according to the medical history, clinical examination, and HPV genotype.

RESULTS

Spontaneous regression occurred in most patients and was influenced by the presence of multiple HPV genotypes but not by the HPV genotype itself. In addition, regression frequency was diminished when more than 50% of the cervix surface was affected or when an abnormal cytology was present at the beginning of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of regression in CIN-I is high, making long-term follow-up and conservative management advisable. Data from clinical examination and HPV genotyping might help to anticipate which lesions will regress.

Optimal Cervical Cancer Screening in Women Vaccinated Against Human Papillomavirus

Background

Current US cervical cancer screening guidelines do not differentiate recommendations based on a woman's human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination status. Changes to cervical cancer screening policies in HPV-vaccinated women should be evaluated.

Methods

We utilized an individual-based mathematical model of HPV and cervical cancer in US women to project the health benefits, costs, and harms associated with screening strategies in women vaccinated with the bivalent, quadrivalent, or nonavalent vaccine. Strategies varied by the primary screening test, including cytology, HPV, and combined cytology and HPV "cotesting"; age of screening initiation and/or switching to a new test; and interval between routine screens. Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from the societal perspective to identify screening strategies that would be considered good value for money according to thresholds of $50 000 to $200 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

Results

Among women fully vaccinated with the bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine, optimal screening strategies involved either cytology or HPV testing alone every five years starting at age 25 or 30 years, with cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $34 680 to $138 560 per QALY gained. Screening earlier or more frequently was either not cost-effective or associated with exceedingly high cost-effectiveness ratios. In women vaccinated with the nonavalent vaccine, only primary HPV testing was efficient, involving decreased frequency (ie, every 10 years) starting at either age 35 years ($40 210 per QALY) or age 30 years ($127 010 per QALY); with lower nonavalent vaccine efficacy, 10-year HPV testing starting at earlier ages of 25 or 30 years was optimal. Importantly, current US guidelines for screening were inefficient in HPV-vaccinated women.

Conclusions

This model-based analysis suggests screening can be modified to start at later ages, occur at decreased frequency, and involve primary HPV testing in HPV-vaccinated women, providing more health benefit at lower harms and costs than current screening guidelines.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of anal cancer screening in women with cervical neoplasia in British Columbia, Canada

Background

Precursors to anal squamous cell carcinoma may be detectable through screening; however, the literature suggests that population-level testing is not cost-effective. Given that high-grade cervical neoplasia (CIN) is associated with an increased risk of developing anal cancer, and in light of changing guidelines for the follow-up and management of cervical neoplasia, it is worthwhile to examine the costs and effectiveness of an anal cancer screening program delivered to women with previously-detected CIN.

Methods

A model of anal cancer screening and treatment was constructed, to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a population of CIN II/III+ women who were screened using anal cytology vs. one that received no anal cancer screening. Costs were based on Canadian estimates, and survival was based on estimates taken from the scientific literature. Effectiveness was measured in terms of life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The model was run for 50 cycles, with each cycle representing one year.

Results

Incremental cost (screened vs. unscreened) was $82.17 per woman in the model. Incremental effectiveness was 0.004 LYG, and was equivalent to zero in terms of QALY. An ICER of $20,561/LYG was calculated, while no meaningful incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) could be calculated for quality-adjusted survival.

Conclusion

Our analysis suggests that anal cancer screening is cost-effective in terms of overall survival in women with a previous diagnosis of CIN II or CIN III as part of regular follow-up, but may not contribute meaningfully-different quality-adjusted survival due to the adverse effects of screening-related interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-016-1442-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The potential harms of primary human papillomavirus screening in over-screened women: a microsimulation study

BACKGROUND

It is well acknowledged that HPV testing should not be performed at young age and at short intervals. Cytological screening practices have shown that over-screening, i.e., from a younger age and at shorter intervals than recommended, is hard to avoid. We quantified the consequences of a switch to primary HPV screening for over-screened women, taking into account its higher sensitivity but lower specificity than cytology.

METHODS

The health effects of using the HPV test instead of cytology as the primary screening method were determined with the MISCAN-Cervix model. We varied the age women start screening and the interval between screens. In the sensitivity analyses, we varied the background risk of cervical cancer, the HPV prevalence, the discount rate, the triage strategy after cytology, and the test characteristics of both cytology and the HPV test.

RESULTS

For women screened 5 yearly from age 30, 32 extra deaths per 100,000 simulated women were prevented when switching from primary cytology to primary HPV testing. For annual screening from age 20, such a switch resulted in 6 extra deaths prevented. It was associated with 9,044 more positive primary screens in the former scenario versus 76,480 in the latter. Under all conditions, for women screened annually, switching to HPV screening resulted in a net loss of quality-adjusted life years.

CONCLUSION

For over-screened women, the harms associated with a lower test specificity outweigh the life years gained when switching from primary cytology to primary HPV testing. The extent of over-screening should be considered when deciding on inclusion of primary HPV screening in cervical cancer screening guidelines.

Improving compliance with cervical cancer screening guidelines

Current cervical cancer screening guidelines for the care of healthy women include HPV cotesting with all Papanicolaou (Pap) smears after the age of 30. To improve compliance with current guidelines, we instituted two processes: first, simplifying the ordering process to a single order for Pap smear plus HPV cotesting using an electronic medical record system (EMR); and second, providing education for clinic staff. Baseline and postintervention data were collected by retrospective chart review. Patients were selected during three intervals: prior to the transition to Epic EMR, after the transition to Epic, and after an educational intervention. Compliance with standard guidelines was evaluated in relation to the trial intervals, type of provider, patient age, and duration from the previous Pap smear. Provider type was analyzed by considering gynecologists versus nongynecologist providers, and physicians versus mid-level providers. Overall, the percentage of compliance with HPV test ordering did not differ (P = 0.21) between intervals. Univariate analyses performed to identify factors likely to be associated with the practice of ordering HPV cotesting only involved the type of provider. In conclusion, transition to Epic and a training session had minimal impact on compliance with ordering HPV cotesting at the time of a Pap smear except among family practice physicians, who did significantly improve their compliance rate. Gynecologists and mid-level providers were more compliant with ordering HPV cotesting throughout, but did not significantly improve after the interventions.

A survey of population-based utility scores for cervical cancer prevention

Background

With human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination introduced in a number of countries, there is considerable interest in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of HPV testing as the primary cervical screening test in these settings. However, the availability of utility scores for these newer interventions is limited. Our aim in this paper is to present utility scores for HPV vaccination, HPV testing and cytology based screening states among women targeted for cervical screening.

Methods

We invited a random sample of women targeted for cervical screening (aged 20-69 years) living in Sydney, Australia, to participate in a face-to-face interview. Participants were asked to indicate preferences (rank and utility scores) for 10 hypothetical health states relating to HPV vaccination, cytology and primary HPV screening, cervical precursor disease and early stage cervical cancer. Preferences for hypothetical health states were measured through ranking then a two-stage standard gamble. Each participant’s own health state was measured as a utility score using the EQ5D. Potential differences by age were assessed using the Wilcox Rank Sum test.

Results

A maximum of 276 women were contacted, of which 43 (mean age 49 years) agreed to be interviewed (15.6%). The overall health state of women as measured by the EQ5D was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.89). Of the 10 health states, the highest ranked were ‘normal cytology’ and ‘HPV vaccination’ (equal 1^st). States involving an HPV positive result with a subsequent normal cytology or colposcopy were ranked below those for low grade cytological abnormalities with or without a subsequent colposcopic normal result (ranks 3-4 vs. 4-5). However, mean utility scores were broadly similar for all health states, except cervical cancer. No significant differences in scores were identified between age groups.

Conclusion

Our survey suggests health states relating to HPV testing are ranked below ‘low grade cytology’ disease abnormalities. However, this difference was minimal on the utility scale, as most values for health states were largely clustered. These results provide a preliminary set of non-clinic population-based utilities that may be used with other values to explore the economic implications of introducing HPV testing as a primary screening tool in the context of HPV vaccination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1756-0500-7-899) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Percutaneous breast biopsy: effect on short-term quality of life

PURPOSE

To examine the effects of percutaneous breast biopsy on short-term quality of life.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant prospective study. From December 1, 2007, through February 28, 2010, women undergoing percutaneous breast biopsy in an academic medical center were recruited to participate in a mixed-mode survey 2-4 days after biopsy. Patients described their biopsy experience by using the Testing Morbidities Index (TMI), a validated instrument for assessing short-term quality of life related to diagnostic testing. The scale ranged from 0 (worst possible experience) to 100 (no adverse effects). Seven attributes were assessed: pain or discomfort before and during testing, fear or anxiety before and during testing, embarrassment during testing, and physical and mental function after testing. Demographic and clinical information were also collected. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed to identify significant predictors of TMI score.

RESULTS

In 188 women (mean age, 51.4 years; range, 22-80 years), the mean TMI score (±standard deviation) was 82 ± 12. Univariate analysis revealed age and race as significant predictors of the TMI score (P < .05). In the multivariate model, only patient age remained a significant independent predictor (P = .001). TMI scores decreased by approximately three points for every decade decrease in patient age, which suggests that younger women were more adversely affected by the biopsy experience.

CONCLUSION

Younger patient age is a significant predictor of decreased short-term quality of life related to percutaneous breast biopsy procedures. Tailored prebiopsy counseling may better prepare women for percutaneous biopsy procedures and improve their experience.

How distressing is referral to colposcopy in cervical cancer screening?: a prospective quality of life study

OBJECTIVE

Referral for colposcopy because of abnormal Pap test results is likely to be distressing, but the extent and duration of these effects are unknown. We aimed to fill this gap.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study at two departments of Obstetrics and Gynecology (an academic and a non-academic setting). Women referred for colposcopy completed questionnaires before colposcopy, and at 1, 3, and 6 months afterwards. A reference group of 706 screen participants, aged 29-60 years old, was included and completed questionnaires once. Main outcome measures were generic health-related quality of life (HRQoL), assessed through the EQ-5D and the SF-12 physical and mental scores (PCS-12 and MCS-12); anxiety as assessed by STAI-6, and screen-specific anxiety as assessed by the psychological consequences questionnaire (PCQ).

RESULTS

154 women responded to the questionnaire, of whom 132 were included in the analyses. Histological results were CIN 1 in 17/115 women (15%) and CIN 2+ in 62 (54%). In 36 women (31%) there was no histologically confirmed neoplasia. Before colposcopy physical HRQoL scores were similar or slightly better than in the reference group, while mental HRQoL (MSC-12) and (screen-specific) anxiety were worse (p<0.001). Irrespective of CIN-grades, anxiety washed out during follow-up (p<0.001), with changes being clinically relevant.

CONCLUSIONS

Referral for gynecological evaluation because of abnormal PAP-test results was distressing. Anxiety--and not the physical burden of management--seemed to be the most bothersome to women. For all CIN-grades, distress disappeared over six months following colposcopy, suggesting a reassuring effect of gynecological management.

Modeling the impact of quadrivalent HPV vaccination on the incidence of Pap test abnormalities in the United States

BACKGROUND

We present data on Pap test results and HPV prevalence from the HPV Sentinel Surveillance project, a multiyear surveillance project enrolling women from a diverse set of 26 clinics throughout the US from 2003 to 2005. We use mathematical modeling to illustrate the potential timing and magnitude of decreases in Pap test abnormalities in sexually transmitted disease (STD), family planning, and primary care clinics in the US as a result of HPV vaccination.

METHODS

The probability of an abnormal Pap result was based on three factors: (1) infection with HPV 16/18, or both; (2) infection with high-risk HPV types other than HPV 16/18; and (3) infection with HPV 6/11, or both. We estimated the relative reduction in the probability of an abnormal Pap result over the first 25 years of a female-only, quadrivalent HPV vaccination program, compared to a scenario of no HPV vaccination in which the probability of abnormal Pap results was assumed constant.

RESULTS

The probability of an abnormal Pap result ranged from 7.0% for the lowest risk group (those without any high-risk HPV types and without HPV 6/11) to 45.2% for the highest risk group (those with HPV 16/18 and at least one other high-risk HPV type). Estimated reductions in abnormal Pap results among women in the 21- to 29-year age group were 0.8%, 10.2%, and 11.3% in years 5, 15, and 25 of the vaccine program respectively, in the lower vaccine coverage scenario, and 7.4%, 21.4%, and 22.2%, respectively, in the higher coverage scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that HPV vaccination will have a discernable impact on the probability of Pap abnormalities, but the timing and magnitude of the reduction will depend substantially on vaccine coverage and the degree of cross-protection against high risk HPV types other than HPV 16/18.

Adjunctive colposcopy technologies for examination of the uterine cervix--DySIS, LuViva Advanced Cervical Scan and Niris Imaging System: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Women in England (aged 25-64 years) are invited for cervical screening every 3-5 years to assess for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or cancer. CIN is a term describing abnormal changes in the cells of the cervix, ranging from CIN1 to CIN3, which is precancerous. Colposcopy is used to visualise the cervix. Three adjunctive colposcopy technologies for examination of the cervix have been included in this assessment: Dynamic Spectral Imaging System (DySIS), the LuViva Advanced Cervical Scan and the Niris Imaging System.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adjunctive colposcopy technologies for examination of the uterine cervix for patients referred for colposcopy through the NHS Cervical Screening Programme.

DATA SOURCES

Sixteen electronic databases [Allied and Complementary Medicine Database (AMED), BIOSIS Previews, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database; Inspec, Inside Conferences, MEDLINE, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), PASCAL, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) and Science Citation Index (SCI) - Conference Proceedings], and two clinical trial registries [ClinicalTrials.gov and Current Controlled Trials (CCT)] were searched to September-October 2011.

REVIEW METHODS

Studies comparing DySIS, LuViva or Niris with conventional colposcopy were sought; a narrative synthesis was undertaken. A decision-analytic model was developed, which measured outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs were evaluated from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services with a time horizon of 50 years.

RESULTS

Six studies were included: two studies of DySIS, one study of LuViva and three studies of Niris. The DySIS studies were well reported and had a low risk of bias; they found higher sensitivity with DySIS (both the DySISmap alone and in combination with colposcopy) than colposcopy alone for identifying CIN2+ disease, although specificity was lower with DySIS. The studies of LuViva and Niris were poorly reported and had limitations, which indicated that their results were subject to a high risk of bias; the results of these studies cannot be considered reliable. The base-case cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that both DySIS treatment options are less costly and more effective than colposcopy alone in the overall weighted population; these results were robust to the ranges tested in the sensitivity analysis. DySISmap alone was more costly and more effective in several of the referral groups but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was never higher than £1687 per QALY. DySIS plus colposcopy was less costly and more effective in all reasons for referral. Only indicative analyses were carried out on Niris and LuViva and no conclusions could be made on their cost-effectiveness.

LIMITATIONS

The assessment is limited by the available evidence on the new technologies, natural history of the disease area and current treatment patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

DySIS, particularly in combination with colposcopy, has higher sensitivity than colposcopy alone. There is no reliable evidence on the clinical effectiveness of LuViva and Niris. DySIS plus colposcopy appears to be less costly and more effective than both the DySISmap alone and colposcopy alone; these results were robust to the sensitivity analyses undertaken. Given the lack of reliable evidence on LuViva and Niris, no conclusions on their potential cost-effectiveness can be drawn. There is some uncertainty about how generalisable these findings will be to the population of women referred for colposcopy in the future, owing to the introduction of the human papillomavirus (HPV) triage test and uptake of the HPV vaccine.

Evaluating the epidemiology and morbidity burden associated with human papillomavirus in Israel: accounting for CIN1 and genital warts in addition to CIN2/3 and cervical cancer

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is mostly associated with cervical cancer (CC). However, it can cause other illnesses as well, all of which impact on people's wellbeing and consume healthcare resources. Measures for prevention or early detection of these conditions differ in their effectiveness and cost. An informative evaluation of the projected benefit of these measures depends on understanding the current unmet need, not only limited to CC.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the burden of HPV-related conditions in Israel, including CC, cervical precancerous lesions and genital warts.

METHODS

A retrospective database analysis was conducted for the second largest health management organization (HMO) in Israel, covering approximately 1.8 million people. Records were drawn following a search for key words indicative of related diagnoses, lab results, medications, or procedures for the time period of 2006-2008. Prevalence, incidence and resource utilization were analysed. Findings were extrapolated to the whole Israeli population using age and gender incidence rates.

RESULTS

Incidence of CC was found to be 5 per 100,000 females. Incidences of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 1, 2 and 3 were 74, 27 and 36 per 100,000 females, respectively. Incidence of genital warts was 239 and 185 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. The overall annual economic burden was calculated to be $US48,838,058 (year 2010 values).

CONCLUSIONS

HPV poses a significant burden in terms of health (clinical and quality of life) and in monetary terms, even for conditions that are sometimes regarded as benign, such as CIN1 or genital warts. Current findings should be used for proper evaluation of measures to reduce HPV-related morbidity and mortality, such as regular screening and vaccination.

Time for change? An economic evaluation of integrated cervical screening and HPV immunization programs in Canada

Many jurisdictions have implemented universal human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization programs in preadolescent females. However, the cost-effectiveness of modified cervical screening guidelines and/or catch-up immunization in older females in Canada has not been evaluated. We conducted a cost-utility analysis of screening and immunization with the bivalent vaccine for the Canadian setting from the Ministry of Health perspective. We used a dynamic model to capture herd immunity and included cross-protection against strains not included in the vaccine. We found that adding catch-up immunization to the current program would be cost-effective, and that combining catch-up immunization with delaying the age at which screening is first initiated could result in cost savings and net health gains.

The cost-effectiveness of male HPV vaccination in the United States

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of 12-year-old males to a female-only vaccination program for ages 12-26 years in the United States.

METHODS

We used a simplified model of HPV transmission to estimate the reduction in the health and economic burden of HPV-associated diseases in males and females as a result of HPV vaccination. Estimates of the incidence, cost-per-case, and quality-of-life impact of HPV-associated health outcomes were based on the literature. The HPV-associated outcomes included were: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN); genital warts; juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP); and cervical, vaginal, vulvar, anal, oropharyngeal, and penile cancers.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness of male vaccination depended on vaccine coverage of females. When including all HPV-associated outcomes in the analysis, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by adding male vaccination to a female-only vaccination program was $23,600 in the lower female coverage scenario (20% coverage at age 12 years) and $184,300 in the higher female coverage scenario (75% coverage at age 12 years). The cost-effectiveness of male vaccination appeared less favorable when compared to a strategy of increased female vaccination coverage. For example, we found that increasing coverage of 12-year-old girls would be more cost-effective than adding male vaccination even if the increased female vaccination strategy incurred program costs of $350 per additional girl vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV vaccination of 12-year-old males might potentially be cost-effective, particularly if female HPV vaccination coverage is low and if all potential health benefits of HPV vaccination are included in the analysis. However, increasing female coverage could be a more efficient strategy than male vaccination for reducing the overall health burden of HPV in the population.

Evaluation of primary HPV-DNA testing in relation to visual inspection methods for cervical cancer screening in rural China: an epidemiologic and cost-effectiveness modelling study

Background

A new lower-cost rapid-throughput human papillomavirus (HPV) test (careHPV, Qiagen, Gaithersburg, USA) has been shown to have high sensitivity for the detection of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

Methods

We assessed the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of careHPV screening in rural China, compared to visual inspection with acetic acid, when used alone (VIA) or in combination with Lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI). Using data on sexual behaviour, test accuracy, diagnostic practices and costs from studies performed in rural China, we estimated the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) and associated lifetime outcomes for once-lifetime and twice-lifetime screening strategies, and for routine screening at 5-yearly, 10-yearly and IARC-recommended intervals. The optimal age range for once-lifetime screening was also assessed.

Results

For all strategies, the relative ordering of test technologies in reducing cervical cancer incidence and mortality was VIA (least effective); VIA/VILI; careHPV@1.0 pg/ml and careHPV@0.5 pg/ml (most effective). For once-lifetime strategies, maximum effectiveness was achieved if screening occurred between 35-50 years. Assuming a participation rate of ~70%, once-lifetime screening at age 35 years would reduce cancer mortality by 8% (for VIA) to 12% (for careHPV@0.5) over the long term, with a CER of US$557 (for VIA) to $959 (for careHPV@1.0) per life year saved (LYS) compared to no intervention; referenced to a 2008 GDP per capita in Shanxi Province of $2,975. Correspondingly, regular screening with an age-standardised participation rate of 62% (which has been shown to be achievable in this setting) would reduce cervical cancer mortality by 19-28% (for 10-yearly screening) to 43-54% (using IARC-recommended intervals), with corresponding CERs ranging from $665 (for 10-yearly VIA) to $2,269 (for IARC-recommended intervals using careHPV@1.0) per LYS.

Conclusions

This modelled analysis suggests that primary careHPV screening compares favourably to visual inspection screening methodologies in rural China, particularly if used as part of a regular screening program.

Human papillomavirus testing in primary cervical screening and the cut-off level for hybrid capture 2 tests: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the trade-off between the sensitivity and the specificity for high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia at hybrid capture 2 cut-off values above the standard ≥ 1 relative light units/cut-off level (rlu/co).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised controlled trials in primary cervical screening using hybrid capture 2 testing in the intervention arms. Articles published until August 2010 were included if the numbers of women with positive test results and with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia were stratified by hybrid capture 2 cut-off levels.

PARTICIPANTS

Women in the baseline screening rounds of the trials.

INTERVENTIONS

Hybrid capture 2 screening in the baseline round including the diagnostic follow-up as practised in the randomised controlled trials and as reported by hybrid capture 2 cut-off values.

RESULTS

Owing to heterogeneity in the trials, meta-analysis was not possible. Including cut-off values up to ≥ 10 rlu/co, 25 observation points were available for analysis. The relative sensitivity for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III or higher at cut-off levels of ≥ 2, ≥ 4 or ≥ 5, and ≥ 10 rlu/co compared with a cut-off level of ≥ 1 rlu/co varied by trial, but at their lowest they were 0.97, 0.92, and 0.91, respectively. A similar pattern was observed for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or higher. The specificity would increase by at least 1%, 2%, and 3%, respectively, so that up to 24%, 39%, and 53%, of positive hybrid capture 2 test results not associated with high grade neoplasia could be avoided. Only two outliers existed to this general pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the data were derived from the baseline screening rounds only, the decrease in the sensitivity for high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia using a hybrid capture 2 cut-off level between ≥ 2 rlu/co and ≥ 10 rlu/co seemed acceptable given the international recommendations for testing for human papillomavirus DNA in cervical screening, which require 90% or more sensitivity for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II or higher compared with hybrid capture 2 at ≥ 1 rlu/co. The data suggest that the hybrid capture 2 cut-off level could be increased in primary screening; this seems reasonably safe and is significantly less burdensome for women.

False-positive Human Papillomavirus DNA tests in cervical screening: it is all in a definition

AIM

Based on data from randomised controlled trials (RCT) on primary cervical screening, it has been reported that the problem of more frequent false-positive tests in Human Papillomavirus (HPV) DNA screening compared to cytology could be overcome. However, these reports predominantly operated with a narrow definition of a (false-)positive test. The aim of this paper was to illustrate how the narrow definition affected the measured adverse effects of HPV DNA screening compared with cytology screening.

METHODS

In the European RCT data, we measured the impact of the narrow definition of a positive screening test on the published relative positive predictive values (PPV), an indicator of the relative frequency of false-positive screening tests.

RESULTS

Using the trialists' definitions of positive screening tests, HPV screening combined with cytology triage had relative PPVs of 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60-1.26) for ≥ CIN3 based on Swedish RCT data, and 0.78 (0.52-1.16) for ≥ CIN2 in the Italian Phase 1 RCT (25-34 years). These PPVs changed to 0.44 (0.30-0.64) and 0.51 (0.33-0.79), respectively, when all positive HPV or cytology screening tests were accounted for. In the Finnish RCT data, HPV screening using the cut-off point of ≥ 10 pg/ml had a relative PPV of 0.27 (0.15-0.50) for ≥ CIN3, which changed to 1.84 (0.99-3.41).

CONCLUSION

The relative PPV was incorrectly estimated in six out of seven studies. In three of those six studies, the relative PPV changed significantly after inclusion of the previously erroneously excluded false-positive HPV or cytology tests.

Impact of HPV vaccination on young women's quality of life - a five year follow-up study

OBJECTIVES

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines protect against infections/conditions which potentially adversely affect quality of life (QoL). We investigated the impact of HPV infection on QoL five years post vaccination in 22-23 year-old women and a group of controls.

METHODS

Participants were 22-23 year-old women who had either previously been enrolled in the FUTURE II trial of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Finland at age 16-17 (n = 1749), or were unvaccinated females in the birth cohort above those eligible for participation in FUTURE II in Finland (n = 6534). Participants were sent a questionnaire consisting of two generic QoL instruments (RAND36 and EQ VAS).

RESULTS

We received and analysed 4438 valid responses. Unadjusted mean outcomes of the different QoL measures (RAND36 domains and EQ VAS) were similar. Multiple regression analysis showed that reporting current or previous genital warts, or cytological abnormalities, was significantly associated with reduced QoL. There were no significant differences between the HPV-vaccinated group and the placebo or unvaccinated groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnoses of genital warts or of cervical anomalies have a significant impact on QoL. The QoL of women who received the placebo or no vaccine was no lower, five years later, than that of those who received the active HPV vaccine.

Preferences for surveillance strategies for women treated for high-grade precancerous cervical lesions

OBJECTIVES

Data are lacking on how women view alternative approaches to surveillance for cervical cancer after treatment of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. We measured and compared patient preferences (utilities) for scenarios with varying surveillance strategies and outcomes to inform guidelines and cost-effectiveness analyses of post-treatment surveillance options.

METHODS

English- or Spanish-speaking women who had received an abnormal Pap test result within the past 2 years were recruited from general gynecology and colposcopy clinics and newspaper and online advertisements in 2007 and 2008. Participation consisted of one face-to-face interview, during which utilities for 11 different surveillance scenarios and their associated outcomes were elicited using the time tradeoff metric. A sociodemographic questionnaire also was administered.

RESULTS

65 women agreed to participate and successfully completed the preference elicitation exercises. Mean utilities ranged from 0.989 (undergoing only a Pap test, receiving normal results) to 0.666 (invasive cervical cancer treated with radical hysterectomy or radiation and chemotherapy). Undergoing both Pap and HPV tests and receiving normal/negative results had a lower mean utility (0.953) then undergoing only a Pap test and receiving normal results (0.989). Having both tests and receiving normal Pap but positive HPV results was assigned an even lower mean utility (0.909). 15.9% of the respondents gave higher utility scores to the Pap plus HPV testing scenario (with normal/negative results) than to the "Pap test alone" scenario (with normal results), while 17.5% gave the Pap test alone scenario a higher utility score.

CONCLUSIONS

Preferences for outcomes ending with normal results but involving alternative surveillance processes differ substantially. The observed differences in utilities have important implications for clinical guidelines and cost-effectiveness analyses.

The cost effectiveness of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (6/11/16/18) in Hungary

OBJECTIVE

A transmission dynamic model was used to assess the epidemiological and economic impact of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) (6/11/16/18) vaccine in preventing cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN 2/3), CIN 1 and genital warts in Hungary.

METHODS

The routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls and the routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls plus a temporary catch-up programme for girls and women aged 12-24 years was evaluated.

RESULTS

The model projected that at year 100, both strategies could reduce the incidence of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancer, CIN 2/3, CIN 1 and genital warts cases among Hungarian women by 90%, 90%, 85% and 93%, respectively. Twenty-five years after the introduction of HPV vaccination in the population, routine vaccination of girls by the age of 12 reduced the cumulative number of cases of cervical cancer, CIN 2/3, CIN 1 and genital warts by 685, 13,473, 3,423 and 163,987, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the two vaccination strategies were €9,577 and €10,646 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over a time horizon of 100 years.

KEY LIMITATIONS

The model did not account for the health and economic impact of other HPV diseases which may result from HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infections such as vaginal, vulvar, penile, anal and head-neck cancers, and recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. Epidemiological data from Hungary on these other HPV diseases as well genital warts are needed.

CONCLUSION

A quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme can reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, CIN and genital warts in Hungary at a cost-per-QALY ratio within the range defined as cost effective.

Human papillomavirus testing with Pap triage for cervical cancer prevention in Canada: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Recently published results from a large randomized trial (Canadian Cervical Cancer Screening Trial study group) suggest that human papillomavirus testing followed by Pap smear-based triage for human papillomavirus positive women may be an effective way to screen women for cervical cancer. We determined the potential cost-effectiveness of including human papillomavirus tests for cervical cancer screening for Canada and three provinces: Alberta, Newfoundland and Ontario.

METHODS

We developed four Markov decision models using data from relevant Canadian and provincial studies and databases. The models were used to determine the number of false positive test results, cancers, lifetime costs and life-expectancy for 27 different screening strategies that varied by age to begin screening (18 or 25 years), screening interval (one, two, three, or five years) and whether the currently recommended strategy (screening every year from age 18 until 21 and then every three years afterwards with conventional Paps) was conducted prior to age 25. Strategies were compared using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

Screening strategies beginning at age 18 were associated with a substantial increase in the number of false-positive test results but only small differences in the number of cancers compared to the same strategy conducted beginning at age 25. Strategies of human papillomavirus testing first, followed by triage with Pap smears were associated with lower costs and greater increases in life-expectancy than the currently recommended screening strategy in Canada.

CONCLUSION

A strategy of human papillomavirus testing beginning at age 25, with Pap triage for women with positive human papillomavirus results may be more effective at reducing cervical cancer at a lower cost than the current recommended strategy for screening in Canada.

A cost-utility analysis of adding a bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine to the Irish cervical screening programme

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide, and in Ireland it is the ninth most commonly diagnosed cancer in women. Almost 100% of these cancers are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Two newly developed vaccines against HPV infection have become available. This study is a cost-utility analysis of the HPV vaccine in Ireland, and it compares the cost-effectiveness profiles of the two vaccines.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis of the HPV vaccine in Ireland was performed using a Markov model. A cohort of screened and vaccinated women was compared with an unvaccinated screened cohort, and both cohorts were followed over their lifetimes. The model looked at uptake of services related to HPV disease in both cohorts. Outcomes were measured in quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Extensive sensitivity analysis was done.

RESULTS

For the base case analysis, the model showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for quadrivalent HPV vaccination would be 25,349 euros/QALY and 30,460 euros/QALY for the bivalent vaccine. The ICER for the quadrivalent vaccine ranged from 2877 euros to 36,548 euros, and for the bivalent from 3399 euros to 45,237 euros. At current prices, the bivalent vaccine would need to be 22% cheaper than the quadrivalent vaccine in order to have equivalent cost effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

HPV vaccination has the potential to be very cost effective in Ireland. The quadrivalent vaccine is more cost effective than the bivalent vaccine.

Options for managing low grade cervical abnormalities detected at screening: cost effectiveness study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost effectiveness of alternative methods of managing low grade cervical cytological abnormalities detected at routine screening. Design Cost analysis within multicentre individually randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Grampian, Tayside, and Nottingham.

PARTICIPANTS

4201 women with low grade abnormalities.

INTERVENTIONS

Cytological surveillance or referral to colposcopy for biopsy and recall if necessary or referral to colposcopy with immediate treatment based on colposcopic appearance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on resource use collected from participants throughout the duration of the trial (36 months), enabling the estimation of both the direct (health care) and indirect (time and travel) costs of management. Quality of life assessed at recruitment and at 12, 18, 24, and 30 months, using the EQ-5D instrument. Economic outcomes expressed as costs per case of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (grade II or worse) detected, by trial arm, as confirmed at exit, and cost utility ratios (cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained) for the three pairwise comparisons of trial arms.

RESULTS

The mean three year discounted costs of surveillance, immediate treatment, and biopsy and recall were pound150.20 (euro177, $249), pound240.30 (euro283, $415), and pound241.10 (euro284, $4000), respectively, viewed from the health service perspective. From the social perspective, mean discounted costs were pound204.40 (euro241, $339), pound339.90 (euro440, $563), and pound327.50 (euro386, $543), respectively. Estimated at the means, the incremental cost effectiveness ratios indicated that immediate treatment was dominated by the other two management methods, although it did offer the lowest cost per case of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia detected and treated. The pronounced skews in the distributions indicated that probabilistic uncertainty analysis would offer more meaningful estimates of cost effectiveness. The observed differences in the cost effectiveness ratios between trial arms were not significant.

CONCLUSION

Judged within the time frame of the TOMBOLA evaluation, there is no compelling economic reason to favour any one follow-up method over either of the others.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN 34841617.

Age-based programs for vaccination against HPV

BACKGROUND

The risk of infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) increases with age. Answering the question of which age groups are appropriate to target for catch-up vaccination with the newly licensed quadrivalent HPV vaccine (types 6/11/16/18) will be important for developing vaccine policy recommendations.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the value of varying female HPV vaccination strategies by specific age groups of a catch-up program in the United States.

METHODS

The authors used previously published mathematical population dynamic model and cost-utility analysis to evaluate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative quadrivalent HPV (6/11/16/18) vaccination strategies. The model simulates heterosexual transmission of HPV infection and occurrence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), cervical cancer, and external genital warts in an age-structured population stratified by sex and sexual activity groups. The cost-utility analysis estimates the cost of vaccination, screening, diagnosis, and treatment of HPV diseases, and quality-adjusted survival.

RESULTS

Compared with the current screening practices, vaccinating girls and women ages 12 to 24 years was the most effective strategy, reducing the number of HPV6/11/16/18-related genital warts, CIN grades 2 and 3, and cervical cancer cases among women in the next 25 years by 3,049,285, 1,399,935, and 30,021; respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of this strategy when compared with vaccinating girls and women ages 12 to 19 years was $10,986 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. CONCLUSION;: Relative to other commonly accepted health-care programs, vaccinating girls and women ages 12 to 24 years appears cost-effective.

Health and economic impact associated with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Italy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the health impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme with a quadrivalent vaccine alongside the existing cervical cancer screening programme in comparison to the current context in Italy.

METHODS

A US Markov model was adapted to the Italian context, assuming under base case 80% vaccine coverage rate, lifetime duration of protection in a cohort of girls aged 12 years and discount rates of 1.5% and 3% for health benefits and costs, respectively, and estimating direct medical costs.

RESULTS

The HPV vaccination in association with the current screening programme would allow to avoid 1432 cases of cervical cancer (-63.3%) and 513 deaths (-63.4%) compared to screening only, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 9569 euros per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The sensitivity analysis highlighted that this model was robust to all parameters presenting uncertainties as the ICERs ranged from 2,781 euros to 48,122 euros per QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that HPV vaccination in adolescent girls would be a beneficial and cost-effective public health programme in Italy.

Structural differences among cost-effectiveness models of human papillomavirus vaccines

In this article we compare previously published cost-effectiveness studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines along a defined subset of key model structural assumptions relating to HPV infection and disease, cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccination. For each structural aspect examined, we summarize assumptions from each study, provide a critical review and discuss the impact upon results. Considerable variation was observed across HPV vaccine cost-effectiveness models in a number of influential assumptions. Holding constant factors for which current data are lacking, the combined impact of assumptions made for the remaining parameters examined would appear to tend toward underestimation of the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination within existing studies. However, uncertainty concerning parameters, such as the duration of vaccine protection and acquired immunity following HPV infection, and the relationship between age and HPV virulence, complicates precise estimation of the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination and rigorous evaluation of the validity of existing modeling results.

Trade-offs in cervical cancer prevention: balancing benefits and risks

BACKGROUND

New screening and vaccination technologies will provide women with more options for cervical cancer prevention. Because the risk of cervical cancer diminishes with effective routine screening, women may wish to consider additional attributes, such as the likelihood of false-positive results and diagnostic procedures for mild abnormalities likely to resolve without intervention in their screening choices.

METHODS

We used an empirically calibrated simulation model of cervical cancer in the United States to assess the benefits and potential risks associated with prevention strategies differing by primary screening test, triage test for abnormal results (cytologic testing, human papillomavirus [HPV] DNA test), and screening frequency. Outcomes included colposcopy referrals, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) types 1 and 2 or 3, lifetime cancer risk, and quality-adjusted life expectancy.

RESULTS

Across strategies, colposcopy referrals and diagnostic workups varied 3-fold, although diagnostic rates of CIN 2 or 3 were similar and 95% of positive screening test results were for mild abnormalities likely to resolve on their own. For a representative group of a thousand 20-year-old women undergoing triennial screening for 10 years, we expect 1038 colposcopy referrals (7 CIN 2 or 3 diagnoses) from combined cytologic and HPV DNA testing and fewer than 200 referrals (6-7 CIN 2 or 3 diagnoses) for strategies that use triage testing. Similarly, for a thousand 40-year-old women, combined cytologic and HPV DNA testing led to 489 referrals (9 CIN 2 or 3), whereas alternative strategies resulted in fewer than 150 referrals (7-8 CIN 2 or 3). Using cytologic testing followed by triage testing in younger women minimizes both diagnostic workups and positive HPV test results, whereas in older women diagnostic workups are minimized with HPV DNA testing followed by cytologic triage testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinically relevant information highlighting trade-offs among cervical cancer prevention strategies allows for inclusion of personal preferences into women's decision making about screening and provides additional dimensions to the construction of clinical guidelines.