Estimating negative likelihood ratio confidence when test sensitivity is 100%: A bootstrapping approach

Meeting medical emergency response criteria for hypertension is not associated with an increased likelihood of in-hospital mortality in a tertiary referral center

Backgrounds

Rapid response team or medical emergency team (MET) calls are typically activated by significant alterations of vital signs in inpatients. However, the clinical significance of a specific criterion, blood pressure elevations, is uncertain.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to evaluate the likelihood ratios associated with MET-activating vital signs, particularly in-patient hypertension, for predicting in-hospital mortality among general medicine inpatients who met MET criteria at any point during admission in a South Australian metropolitan teaching hospital.

Results

Among the 15,734 admissions over a two-year period, 4282 (27.2%) met any MET criteria, with a positive likelihood ratio of 3.05 (95% CI 2.93 to 3.18) for in-hospital mortality. Individual MET criteria were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, with the highest positive likelihood ratio for respiratory rate ≤ 7 breaths per minute (9.83, 95% CI 6.90 to 13.62), barring systolic pressure ≥ 200 mmHg (LR + 1.26, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.69).

Conclusions

Our results show that meeting the MET criteria for hypertension, unlike other criteria, was not significant associated with in-hospital mortality. This observation warrants further research in other patient cohorts to determine whether blood pressure elevations should be routinely included in MET criteria.

Nonspecific stress biomarkers for mortality prediction in older emergency department patients presenting with falls: a prospective multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND

Older patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) after falling are increasingly prevalent. Falls are associated with functional decline and death. Biomarkers predicting short-term mortality might facilitate decisions regarding resource allocation and disposition. D-dimer levels are used to rule out thromboembolic disease, while copeptin and adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) may be used as measures of the patient`s stress level. These nonspecific biomarkers were selected as potential predictors for mortality.

METHODS

Prospective, international, multicenter, cross-sectional observation was performed in two tertiary and two regional hospitals in Germany and Switzerland. Patients aged 65 years or older presenting to the ED after a fall were enrolled. Demographic data, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), and D-dimers were collected upon presentation. Copeptin and MR-proADM levels were determined from frozen samples. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality; and secondary outcomes were mortality at 90, 180, and 365 days.

RESULTS

Five hundred and seventy-two patients were included. Median age was 83 [IQR 78, 89] years, 236 (67.7%) were female. Mortality overall was 3.1% (30 d), 5.4% (90 d), 7.5% (180 d), and 13.8% (365 d), respectively. Non-survivors were older, had a lower ADL index and higher levels of all three biomarkers. Elevated levels of MR-proADM and D-dimer were associated with higher risk of mortality. MR-proADM and D-dimer showed high sensitivity and low negative likelihood ratio regarding short-term mortality, whereas copeptin did not.

CONCLUSION

D-dimer and MR-proADM levels might be useful as prognostic markers in older patients presenting to the ED after a fall, by identifying patients at low risk of short-term mortality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02244983.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Novel Risk Assessment Tool to Identify Infants and Young Children at Risk for Post-Discharge Mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate internally a novel risk assessment tool to identify young children at risk for all-cause mortality ≤60 days of discharge from hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a prospective observational cohort study of children aged 1-59 months discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia (2019-2022). Caregivers received telephone calls up to 60 days after discharge to ascertain participant vital status. We collected socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data during hospitalization. Candidate variables with P < .20 in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariable logistic regression model with best subset selection to identify risk factors for the outcome. We internally validated our tool using bootstrapping with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 1933 young children enrolled in the study. The median (IQR) age was 11 (4, 23) months and 58.7% were males. In total, 67 (3.5%) died during follow-up. Ten variables contributed to our tool (total possible score 82). Cancer (aOR 10.6, 95% CI 2.58, 34.6), pedal edema (aOR 6.94, 95% CI 1.69, 22.6), and leaving against medical advice (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 2.46, 15.3) were most predictive of post-discharge mortality. Our risk assessment tool demonstrated good discriminatory value (optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77), high precision, and sufficient calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

After validation, this tool may be used to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality to direct resources for follow-up of high-risk children.

PECARN prediction rules for CT imaging of children presenting to the emergency department with blunt abdominal or minor head trauma: a multicentre prospective validation study

BACKGROUND

The intra-abdominal injury and traumatic brain injury prediction rules derived by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) were designed to reduce inappropriate use of CT in children with abdominal and head trauma, respectively. We aimed to validate these prediction rules for children presenting to emergency departments with blunt abdominal or minor head trauma.

METHODS

For this prospective validation study, we enrolled children and adolescents younger than 18 years presenting to six emergency departments in Sacramento (CA), Dallas (TX), Houston (TX), San Diego (CA), Los Angeles (CA), and Oakland (CA), USA between Dec 27, 2016, and Sept 1, 2021. We excluded patients who were pregnant or had pre-existing neurological disorders preventing examination, penetrating trauma, injuries more than 24 h before arrival, CT or MRI before transfer, or high suspicion of non-accidental trauma. Children presenting with blunt abdominal trauma were enrolled into an abdominal trauma cohort, and children with minor head trauma were enrolled into one of two age-segregated minor head trauma cohorts (younger than 2 years vs aged 2 years and older). Enrolled children were clinically examined in the emergency department, and CT scans were obtained at the attending clinician's discretion. All enrolled children were evaluated against the variables of the pertinent PECARN prediction rule before CT results were seen. The primary outcome of interest in the abdominal trauma cohort was intra-abdominal injury undergoing acute intervention (therapeutic laparotomy, angiographic embolisation, blood transfusion, intravenous fluid for ≥2 days for pancreatic or gastrointestinal injuries, or death from intra-abdominal injury). In the age-segregated minor head trauma cohorts, the primary outcome of interest was clinically important traumatic brain injury (neurosurgery, intubation for >24 h for traumatic brain injury, or hospital admission ≥2 nights for ongoing symptoms and CT-confirmed traumatic brain injury; or death from traumatic brain injury).

FINDINGS

7542 children with blunt abdominal trauma and 19 999 children with minor head trauma were enrolled. The intra-abdominal injury rule had a sensitivity of 100·0% (95% CI 98·0-100·0; correct test for 145 of 145 patients with intra-abdominal injury undergoing acute intervention) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100·0% (95% CI 99·9-100·0; correct test for 3488 of 3488 patients without intra-abdominal injuries undergoing acute intervention). The traumatic brain injury rule for children younger than 2 years had a sensitivity of 100·0% (93·1-100·0; 42 of 42) for clinically important traumatic brain injuries and an NPV of 100·0%; 99·9-100·0; 2940 of 2940), whereas the traumatic brain injury rule for children aged 2 years and older had a sensitivity of 98·8% (95·8-99·9; 168 of 170) and an NPV of 100·0% (99·9-100·0; 6015 of 6017). The two children who were misclassified by the traumatic brain injury rule were admitted to hospital for observation but did not need neurosurgery.

INTERPRETATION

The PECARN intra-abdominal injury and traumatic brain injury rules were validated with a high degree of accuracy. Their implementation in paediatric emergency departments can therefore be considered a safe strategy to minimise inappropriate CT use in children needing high-quality care for abdominal or head trauma.

FUNDING

The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac troponins in emergency department patients presenting after a fall: A prospective, multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) presentations after a ground-level fall (GLF) are common. Falls were suggested to be another possible presenting feature of a myocardial infarction (MI), as unrecognized MIs are common in older adults. Elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) concentrations could help determine the etiology of a GLF in ED. We investigated the prevalence of both MI and elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), as well as the diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI regarding MI, and their prognostic value in older ED patients presenting after a GLF.

METHODS

This was a prospective, international, multicenter, cohort study with a follow-up of up to 1 year. Patients aged 65 years or older presenting to the ED after a GLF were prospectively enrolled. Two outcome assessors independently reviewed all discharge records to ascertain final gold standard diagnoses. Hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels were determined from thawed samples for every patient.

RESULTS

In total, 558 patients were included. Median (IQR) age was 83 (77-89) years, and 67.7% were female. Elevated hs-cTnT levels were found in 384 (68.8%) patients, and elevated hs-cTnI levels in 86 (15.4%) patients. Three patients (0.5%) were ascertained the gold standard diagnosis MI. Within 30 days, 18 (3.2%) patients had died. Nonsurvivors had higher hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI levels compared with survivors (hs-cTnT 40 [23-85] ng/L in nonsurvivors and 20 [13-33] ng/L in survivors; hs-cTnI 25 [14-54] ng/L in nonsurvivors and 8 [4-16] ng/L in survivors; p < 0.001 for both).

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of patients (n = 364, 68.8%) presenting to the ED after a fall had elevated hs-cTnT levels and 86 (15.4%) elevated hs-cTnI levels. However, the incidence of MI in these patients was low (n = 3, 0.5%). Our data do not support the opinion that falls may be a common presenting feature of MI. We discourage routine troponin testing in this population. However, hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were both found to have prognostic properties for mortality prediction up to 1 year.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Quantitative thresholds for variant enrichment in 13,845 cases: improving pathogenicity classification in genetic hearing loss

BACKGROUND

The American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG)/Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP) guidelines recommend using variant enrichment among cases as "strong" evidence for pathogenicity per the PS4 criterion. However, quantitative support for PS4 thresholds from real-world Mendelian case-control cohorts is lacking.

METHODS

To address this gap, we evaluated and established PS4 thresholds using data from the Chinese Deafness Genetics Consortium. A total of 9,050 variants from 13,845 patients with hearing loss (HL) and 6,570 ancestry-matched controls were analyzed. Positive likelihood ratio and local positive likelihood ratio values were calculated to determine the thresholds corresponding to each strength of evidence across three variant subsets.

RESULTS

In subset 1, consisting of variants present in both cases and controls with an allele frequency (AF) in cases ≥ 0.0005, an odds ratio (OR) ≥ 6 achieved strong evidence, while OR ≥ 3 represented moderate evidence. For subset 2, which encompassed variants present in both cases and controls with a case AF < 0.0005, and subset 3, comprising variants found only in cases and absent from controls, we defined the PS4_Supporting threshold (OR > 2.27 or allele count ≥ 3) and the PS4_Moderate threshold (allele count ≥ 6), respectively. Reanalysis applying the adjusted PS4 criteria changed the classification of 15 variants and enabled diagnosis of an additional four patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study quantified evidence strength thresholds for variant enrichment in genetic HL cases, highlighting the importance of defining disease/gene-specific thresholds to improve the precision and accuracy of clinical genetic testing.

Rational clinical approach to transient ischaemic attack, stroke and associated mimics: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The present study was performed to identify the individual clinical features and risk factors most strongly associated with the diagnosis of transient neurological symptoms with a cerebrovascular cause (transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or stroke), as compared to common TIA mimics (including retinal ischaemia, migraine and seizure).

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study, consecutive patients presenting with transient neurological symptoms to TIA clinic in Royal Adelaide Hospital were included. Clinical features and risk factors were recorded in a standardised form, categorised into subgroups, and analysed using descriptive statistics and diagnostic performance indicators, such as sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios.

RESULTS

For 218/1273 individuals diagnosed with stroke, the three features with the highest positive likelihood ratio were the presence of diffusion weighted imaging positive lesion on magnetic resonance imaging (23.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 14.35-51.08), extracranial carotid atherosclerosis (3.98, 95% CI 1.19-6.87) and a history of peripheral vascular disease (3.33, 95% CI 1.64-6.27). For TIA, the three features with the highest positive likelihood ratio were extracranial carotid atherosclerosis (3.98, 95% CI 1.19-8.27), presence of atrial fibrillation (2.43, 95% CI 1.54-3.46) and pre-existing anticoagulant therapy (2.39, 95% CI 1.61-3.29). For stroke and TIA, the respective features with the lowest negative likelihood ratios were limb weakness (0.71, 95% CI 0.65-0.77) and hypertension (0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrated that specific clinical features and risk factors were associated with the final diagnosis at TIA clinic. These clinical features may assist with diagnosis of TIA in centres without access to a vascular neurologist.

Vital signs and medical emergency response (MER) activation predict in-hospital mortality in general surgery patients: a study of 15 969 admissions

BACKGROUND

The applicability of the vital signs prompting medical emergency response (MER) activation has not previously been examined specifically in a large general surgical cohort. This study aimed to characterize the distribution, and predictive performance, of four vital signs selected based on Australian guidelines (oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure and heart rate); with those of the MER activation criteria.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted including patients admitted under general surgical services of two hospitals in South Australia over 2 years. Likelihood ratios for patients meeting MER activation criteria, or a vital sign in the most extreme 1% for general surgery inpatients (<0.5th percentile or > 99.5th percentile), were calculated to predict in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

15 969 inpatient admissions were included comprising 2 254 617 total vital sign observations. The 0.5th and 99.5th centile for heart rate was 48 and 133, systolic blood pressure 85 and 184, respiratory rate 10 and 31, and oxygen saturations 89% and 100%, respectively. MER activation criteria with the highest positive likelihood ratio for in-hospital mortality were heart rate ≤ 39 (37.65, 95% CI 27.71-49.51), respiratory rate ≥ 31 (15.79, 95% CI 12.82-19.07), and respiratory rate ≤ 7 (10.53, 95% CI 6.79-14.84). These MER activation criteria likelihood ratios were similar to those derived when applying a threshold of the most extreme 1% of vital signs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that vital signs within Australian guidelines, and escalation to MER activation, appropriately predict in-hospital mortality in a large cohort of patients admitted to general surgical services in South Australia.

A risk score for identifying patients at a low risk of bacterial meningitis amongst adults with cerebrospinal fluid leucocytosis and a negative gram stain result: a derivation and validation study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to derive and validate a risk score to differentiate patients with bacterial meningitis from those with viral meningitis or encephalitis amongst patients presenting with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leucocytosis and a negative Gram staining result.

METHODS

We included adults with bacterial and viral meningitis or encephalitis presenting with CSF leukocyte counts of >10 per mm³ and a negative Gram staining result from cohorts in Houston, Texas (2004-2019), and the Netherlands (2012-2021). Derivation and the first validation were performed in the American patients and further validation in the Dutch patients.

RESULTS

Derivation was performed in 109 American patients with bacterial meningitis (median age, 56 years; interquartile range [IQR], 46-66 years; 46% women) and 194 with viral meningitis or encephalitis (median age, 46 years; IQR, 33-60 years; 53% women). Serum leukocyte counts of >10.0 × 10⁹/L, CSF leukocyte counts of >2000 per mm³, granulocyte counts of >1180 per mm³, protein levels of >2.2 g/L, glucose levels of <1.9 mmol/L and fever on admission were included in the risk score, which was dichotomized into 'low risk' (0 present) and 'high risk' (>0 present). The first validation showed a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI, 96.6-100) and specificity of 34.0% (95% CI, 27.4-41.2). Further validation in 262 Dutch patients with bacterial meningitis (median age, 57 years; IQR 44-70 years; 45% women) and 68 with viral meningitis (median age, 34 years; IQR, 28-45 years; 60% women) showed a sensitivity of 99.6% (95% CI, 97.9-100) and specificity of 41.2% (95% CI, 29.4-53.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Our risk score may be able to rule out bacterial meningitis amongst patients presenting with CSF leucocytosis and a negative Gram staining result. However, it needs prospective testing prior to clinical implementation.

The central role of symptom severity and associated characteristics for functional impairment in misophonia

Misophonia is characterized by a preoccupation with and strong emotional and behavioral reactions to certain triggers, mostly sounds related to eating and breathing. We applied functional impairment due to misophonic symptoms as a central criterion to investigate differences between clinical misophonia and normative decreased sound tolerance in a large non-random sample of n = 1,881 individuals from an online survey. We assessed the frequency of self-reported misophonia symptoms across various symptom measures, compared severity, triggers and emotional reactions, general psychopathology, interpersonal emotion regulation, and quality of life between both groups with and without functional impairing misophonia. Individuals with functional impairment due to misophonia (n = 839) revealed significantly higher general psychopathology symptoms, lower interpersonal emotion regulation skills, and lower quality of life than individuals without impairment (n = 1,042). Anxious/distressed and annoyed reactions to triggers were experienced more frequently compared to emotional reactions of disgust and sadness or depression in both groups. Overall, the group differences were primarily quantitative in nature. We discuss practical implications regarding classification and treatment and provide cutoffs for each symptom measure derived from group assignment for functional impairment.

Natural Language Processing for Identification of Venous Thromboembolism in a Clinical Decision Support System: Validation Study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND

It remains unknown whether capturing data from electronic health records (EHRs) using natural language processing (NLP) can improve venous thromboembolism (VTE) detection in different clinical settings.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to validate the NLP algorithm in a clinical decision support system for VTE risk assessment and integrated care (DeVTEcare) to identify VTEs from EHRs.

METHODS

All inpatients aged ≥18 years in the Sixth Medical Center of the Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital from January 1 to December 31, 2021, were included as the validation cohort. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-, respectively), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and F1-scores along with their 95% CIs were used to analyze the performance of the NLP tool, with manual review of medical records as the reference standard for detecting deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). The primary end point was the performance of the NLP approach embedded into the EHR for VTE identification. The secondary end points were the performances to identify VTE among different hospital departments with different VTE risks. Subgroup analyses were performed among age, sex, and the study season.

RESULTS

Among 30,152 patients (median age 56 [IQR 41-67] years; 14,247/30,152, 47.3% females), the prevalence of VTE, PE, and DVT was 2.1% (626/30,152), 0.6% (177/30,152), and 1.8% (532/30,152), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, LR+, LR-, AUC, and F1-score of NLP-facilitated VTE detection were 89.9% (95% CI 87.3%-92.2%), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8%-99.9%), 483 (95% CI 370-629), 0.10 (95% CI 0.08-0.13), 0.95 (95% CI 0.94-0.96), and 0.90 (95% CI 0.90-0.91), respectively. Among departments of surgery, internal medicine, and intensive care units, the highest specificity (100% vs 99.7% vs 98.8%, respectively), LR+ (3202 vs 321 vs 77, respectively), and F1-score (0.95 vs 0.89 vs 0.92, respectively) were in the surgery department (all P<.001). Among low, intermediate, and high VTE risks in hospital departments, the low-risk department had the highest AUC (1.00 vs 0.94 vs 0.96, respectively) and F1-score (0.97 vs 0.90 vs 0.90, respectively) as well as the lowest LR- (0.00 vs 0.13 vs 0.08, respectively) (DeLong test for AUC; all P<.001). Subgroup analysis of the age, sex, and season demonstrated consistently good performance of VTE detection with >87% sensitivity and specificity and >89% AUC and F1-score. The NLP algorithm performed better among patients aged ≤65 years than among those aged >65 years (F1-score 0.93 vs 0.89, respectively; P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The NLP algorithm in our DeVTEcare identified VTE well across different clinical settings, especially in patients in surgery units, departments with low-risk VTE, and patients aged ≤65 years. This algorithm can help to inform accurate in-hospital VTE rates and enhance risk-classified VTE integrated care in future research.

An 8-gene machine learning model improves clinical prediction of severe dengue progression

BACKGROUND

Each year 3-6 million people develop life-threatening severe dengue (SD). Clinical warning signs for SD manifest late in the disease course and are nonspecific, leading to missed cases and excess hospital burden. Better SD prognostics are urgently needed.

METHODS

We integrated 11 public datasets profiling the blood transcriptome of 365 dengue patients of all ages and from seven countries, encompassing biological, clinical, and technical heterogeneity. We performed an iterative multi-cohort analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between non-severe patients and SD progressors. Using only these DEGs, we trained an XGBoost machine learning model on public data to predict progression to SD. All model parameters were "locked" prior to validation in an independent, prospectively enrolled cohort of 377 dengue patients in Colombia. We measured expression of the DEGs in whole blood samples collected upon presentation, prior to SD progression. We then compared the accuracy of the locked XGBoost model and clinical warning signs in predicting SD.

RESULTS

We identified eight SD-associated DEGs in the public datasets and built an 8-gene XGBoost model that accurately predicted SD progression in the independent validation cohort with 86.4% (95% CI 68.2-100) sensitivity and 79.7% (95% CI 75.5-83.9) specificity. Given the 5.8% proportion of SD cases in this cohort, the 8-gene model had a positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of 20.9% (95% CI 16.7-25.6) and 99.0% (95% CI 97.7-100.0), respectively. Compared to clinical warning signs at presentation, which had 77.3% (95% CI 58.3-94.1) sensitivity and 39.7% (95% CI 34.7-44.9) specificity, the 8-gene model led to an 80% reduction in the number needed to predict (NNP) from 25.4 to 5.0. Importantly, the 8-gene model accurately predicted subsequent SD in the first three days post-fever onset and up to three days prior to SD progression.

CONCLUSIONS

The 8-gene XGBoost model, trained on heterogeneous public datasets, accurately predicted progression to SD in a large, independent, prospective cohort, including during the early febrile stage when SD prediction remains clinically difficult. The model has potential to be translated to a point-of-care prognostic assay to reduce dengue morbidity and mortality without overwhelming limited healthcare resources.

Performance of Prehospital Use of Chest Pain Risk Stratification Tools: The RESCUE Study

BACKGROUND

Emergency medical services (EMS) assesses millions of patients with chest pain each year. However, tools validated to risk stratify patients for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and pulmonary embolism (PE) have not been translated to the prehospital setting. The objective of this study is to assess the prehospital performance of risk stratification scores for 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and PE.

METHODS

A prospective observational cohort study of patients ≥21 years of age with acute chest pain who were transported by EMS in two North Carolina (NC) counties was conducted from 18 April 2018-2 January 2019. In this convenience sample, paramedics completed HEAR (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factor), ED Assessment of Chest Pain Score (EDACS), Revised Geneva Score (RGS), and pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) assessments on each patient. MACE (all-cause death, myocardial infarction, and revascularization) and PE at 30 days were determined by hospital records and NC Death Index. The positive (+LR) and negative likelihood ratios (-LR) of the risk scores for 30-day MACE and PE were calculated.

RESULTS

During the study period, 82.1% (687/837) patients had all four risk score assessments. The cohort was 51.1% (351/687) female, 49.5% (340/687) African American, and had a mean age of 55.0 years (SD 16.0). At 30 days, MACE occurred in 7.4% (51/687), PE occurred in 0.9% (6/687), and the combined outcome occurred in 8.2% (56/687). The HEAR score had a - LR of 0.46 (95% CI 0.27-0.78) and + LR of 1.48 (95% CI 1.26-1.74) for 30-day MACE. EDACS had a - LR of 0.61 (95% CI 0.46-0.81) and + LR of 2.53 (95% CI 1.86-3.46) for 30-day MACE. The PERC score had a - LR of 0 (95% CI 0.0-1.4) and a + LR of 1.38 (95% CI 1.32-1.45) for 30-day PE. The RGS score had a - LR of 0 (95% CI 0.0-0.65) and a + LR of 2.36 (95% CI 2.16-2.57) for 30-day PE. The combination of a low-risk HEAR score and negative PERC evaluation had a - LR of 0.25 (95% CI 0.08-0.76) and a + LR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.21-1.30) for 30-day MACE or PE.

CONCLUSION

The combination of a paramedic-obtained HEAR score and PERC evaluation performed best to exclude 30-day MACE and PE but was not sufficient for directing prehospital decision making.

Rapid Rule-Out of Myocardial Infarction After 30 Minutes as an Alternative to 1 Hour: The RACING-MI Cohort Study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate whether myocardial infarction can be safely ruled in or out after 30 minutes as an alternative to 1 hour.

METHODS

This was a prospective, single-center clinical study enrolling patients admitted to the emergency department. Patients with chest pain suggestive of myocardial infarction were eligible for inclusion. There was no walk-in to the emergency department, and patients with highly elevated out-of-hospital troponin were transferred directly to an invasive heart center. High-sensitivity troponin I was measured at admission (0 hour), 30 minutes, 1 hour, and 3 hours. Diagnostic performance was assessed using the sensitivity and negative predictive value (primary endpoints) as measures of ability to rule out myocardial infarction. Specificity and positive predictive value of myocardial infarction were used as measures for the ability to rule in myocardial infarction (secondary endpoints).

RESULTS

In total, 1,003 patients qualified for analysis. Median age was 64 (interquartile range 52 to 74) years, and 42% were women. Myocardial infarction was confirmed in 9% of patients. In the validation cohort (n=503), the 0-h/30-min algorithm assigned 242 (48%) patients to rule out, 54 (11%) to rule in, and 207 (41%) to the observational zone. This resulted in a sensitivity of 100% (92.0% to 100%), negative predictive value of 100% (95% confidence interval 98.5% to 100%), specificity of 96.7% (94.7% to 98.2%), and positive predictive value of 72.2% (58.4% to 83.5%). In comparison, the 0-h/1-h algorithm performed with a sensitivity of 100% (92.0% to 100%), negative predictive value of 100% (98.5% to 100%), specificity of 97.2% (95.2% to 98.5%), and positive predictive value of 75.5% (61.7% to 86.2%).

CONCLUSION

The accelerated 0-h/30-min algorithm allowed for safe rule-out of myocardial infarction 30 minutes after admission. The rule-in ability of the 0-h/30-min algorithm was comparable to that of the 0-h/1h algorithm.

Nucleic Acid Testing for Diagnosis of Perinatally Acquired Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Early Infancy

BACKGROUND

Most US children with perinatal hepatitis C virus (HCV) exposure fail to receive the recommended anti-HCV antibody test at age ≥18 months. Earlier testing for viral RNA might facilitate increased screening, but sensitivity of this approach has not been established. We hypothesized that modern HCV-RNA RT-PCR platforms would adequately detect infected infants.

METHODS

Nationwide Children's Hospital electronic health records from 1/1/2008 to 30/6/2018 were reviewed to identify perinatally exposed infants tested by HCV-RNA RT-PCR at age 2-6 months. Diagnostic performance was determined using a composite case definition: (1) infected children had positive repeat HCV-RNA testing or positive anti-HCV at age ≥24 months; (2) uninfected children lacked these criteria and had negative anti-HCV at age ≥18 months.

RESULTS

770 perinatally exposed infants underwent HCV-RNA testing at age 2-6 months. Of these, 28 (3.6%) tested positive; viremia was confirmed in all who underwent repeat testing (n = 27). Among 742 infants with negative HCV-RNA results, 226 received follow-up anti-HCV testing at age ≥18 months, of whom 223 tested negative. Three children had low-positive anti-HCV results at age 18-24 months that were negative upon retesting after age 24 months, possibly indicating waning maternal antibodies. Using the composite case definitions, early HCV-RNA screening demonstrated sensitivity of 100% (87.5-100%, Wilson-Brown 95% CI) and specificity of 100% (98.3-100%).

CONCLUSIONS

Modern HCV-RNA RT-PCR assays have excellent sensitivity for early diagnosis of perinatally acquired infection and could aid HCV surveillance given the substantial loss to follow-up at ≥18 months of age.

Analysis of 11,430 recombinant protein production experiments reveals that protein yield is tunable by synonymous codon changes of translation initiation sites

Recombinant protein production is a key process in generating proteins of interest in the pharmaceutical industry and biomedical research. However, about 50% of recombinant proteins fail to be expressed in a variety of host cells. Here we show that the accessibility of translation initiation sites modelled using the mRNA base-unpairing across the Boltzmann's ensemble significantly outperforms alternative features. This approach accurately predicts the successes or failures of expression experiments, which utilised Escherichia coli cells to express 11,430 recombinant proteins from over 189 diverse species. On this basis, we develop TIsigner that uses simulated annealing to modify up to the first nine codons of mRNAs with synonymous substitutions. We show that accessibility captures the key propensity beyond the target region (initiation sites in this case), as a modest number of synonymous changes is sufficient to tune the recombinant protein expression levels. We build a stochastic simulation model and show that higher accessibility leads to higher protein production and slower cell growth, supporting the idea of protein cost, where cell growth is constrained by protein circuits during overexpression.

Electrocardiographic Diagnosis of Acute Coronary Occlusion Myocardial Infarction in Ventricular Paced Rhythm Using the Modified Sgarbossa Criteria

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Ventricular paced rhythm is thought to obscure the electrocardiographic diagnosis of acute coronary occlusion myocardial infarction. Our primary aim was to compare the sensitivity of the modified Sgarbossa criteria (MSC) to that of the original Sgarbossa criteria for the diagnosis of occlusion myocardial infarction in patients with ventricular paced rhythm.

METHODS

In this retrospective case-control investigation, we studied adult patients with ventricular paced rhythm and symptoms of acute coronary syndrome who presented in an emergency manner to 16 international cardiac referral centers between January 2008 and January 2018. The occlusion myocardial infarction group was defined angiographically as thrombolysis in myocardial infarction grade 0 to 1 flow or angiographic evidence of coronary thrombosis and peak cardiac troponin I ≥10.0 ng/mL or troponin T ≥1.0 ng/mL. There were 2 control groups: the "non-occlusion myocardial infarction-angio" group consisted of patients who underwent coronary angiography for presumed type I myocardial infarction but did not meet the definition of occlusion myocardial infarction; the "no occlusion myocardial infarction" control group consisted of randomly selected emergency department patients without occlusion myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

There were 59 occlusion myocardial infarction, 90 non-occlusion myocardial infarction-angio, and 102 no occlusion myocardial infarction subjects (mean age, 72.0 years; 168 [66.9%] men). For the diagnosis of occlusion myocardial infarction, the MSC were more sensitive than the original Sgarbossa criteria (sensitivity 81% [95% confidence interval [CI] 69 to 90] versus 56% [95% CI 42 to 69]). Adding concordant ST-depression in V4 to V6 to the MSC yielded 86% (95% CI 75 to 94) sensitivity. For the no occlusion myocardial infarction control group of ED patients, additional test characteristics of MSC and original Sgarbossa criteria, respectively, were as follows: specificity 96% (95% CI 90 to 99) versus 97% (95% CI 92 to 99); negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.19 (95% CI 0.11 to 0.33) versus 0.45 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.65); and positive LR 21 (95% CI 7.9 to 55) versus 19 (95% CI 6.1 to 59). For the non-occlusion myocardial infarction-angio control group, additional test characteristics of MSC and original Sgarbossa criteria, respectively, were as follows: specificity 84% (95% CI 76 to 91) versus 90% (95% CI 82 to 95); negative LR 0.22 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.38) versus 0.49 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.66); and positive LR 5.2 (95% CI 3.2 to 8.6) versus 5.6 (95% CI 2.9 to 11).

CONCLUSION

For the diagnosis of occlusion myocardial infarction in the presence of ventricular paced rhythm, the MSC were more sensitive than the original Sgarbossa criteria; specificity was high for both rules. The MSC may contribute to clinical decisionmaking for patients with ventricular paced rhythm.

Validation of an Automated System for Identifying Complications of Serious Pediatric Emergencies

BACKGROUND

Illness complications are condition-specific adverse outcomes. Detecting complications of pediatric illness in administrative data would facilitate widespread quality measurement, however the accuracy of such detection is unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study of patients visiting a large pediatric emergency department. We analyzed those <22 years old from 2012 to 2019 with 1 of 14 serious conditions: appendicitis, bacterial meningitis, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), empyema, encephalitis, intussusception, mastoiditis, myocarditis, orbital cellulitis, ovarian torsion, sepsis, septic arthritis, stroke, and testicular torsion. We applied a method using disposition, diagnosis codes, and procedure codes to identify complications. The automated determination was compared with the criterion standard of manual health record review by using positive predictive values (PPVs) and negative predictive values (NPVs). Interrater reliability of manual reviews used a κ.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1534 encounters. PPVs and NPVs for complications were >80% for 8 of 14 conditions: appendicitis, bacterial meningitis, intussusception, mastoiditis, myocarditis, orbital cellulitis, sepsis, and testicular torsion. Lower PPVs for complications were observed for DKA (57%), empyema (53%), encephalitis (78%), ovarian torsion (21%), and septic arthritis (64%). A lower NPV was observed in stroke (68%). The κ between reviewers was 0.88.

CONCLUSIONS

An automated method to measure complications by using administrative data can detect complications in appendicitis, bacterial meningitis, intussusception, mastoiditis, myocarditis, orbital cellulitis, sepsis, and testicular torsion. For DKA, empyema, encephalitis, ovarian torsion, septic arthritis, and stroke, the tool may be used to screen for complicated cases that may subsequently undergo manual review.

Individualized faecal immunochemical test cut-off based on age and sex in colorectal cancer screening

The risk of having colorectal cancer (CRC) or its precursors vary with age and sex. Yet, most CRC screening programs using the quantitative faecal immunochemical test (FIT) use a uniform FIT cut-off. We aimed to calculate individualized FIT cut-offs based on age and sex. Data from a study of 1,112 asymptomatic average-risk screening participants undergoing colonoscopy without preselection were used to build a logistic regression model to calculate the risk of having advanced neoplasia (AN) at colonoscopy using age, sex, and FIT concentration as variables. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted FIT cut-off concentrations based on a uniform risk threshold. In a total of 101 of the 1,112 participants AN was detected at colonoscopy. We selected a risk threshold that would produce a specificity of 96.9% in the study group, matching the specificity of FIT at a cut-off of 20 µg Hb/g faeces. At this threshold, age- and sex-adjusted FIT cut-off concentrations ranged from 36.9 µg Hb/g faeces for 50-year-old women to 9.5 µg Hb/g faeces for 75-year old men. At this level of specificity, the risk-based model reached a sensitivity for AN of 28.7% (95%CI: 20.8 to 38.2) versus 27.7% (95%CI: 19.9 to 37.1) for FIT only. Using a risk threshold instead of a uniform FIT-based threshold for inviting screening participants to follow-up colonoscopy ensures that everyone has a comparable risk of AN prior to colonoscopy and may improve the detection of advanced neoplasia, although the absolute magnitude of the increase is likely to be limited.

The Hook Test Is More Accurate Than the Trampoline Test to Detect Foveal Tears of the Triangular Fibrocartilage Complex of the Wrist

PURPOSE

To evaluate the accuracy of the trampoline and hook tests, used in the arthroscopic assessment of triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) tears compared with arthroscopic direct visualization of the radiocarpal joint (RCJ) and of the distal radial ulnar joint (DRUJ).

METHODS

In total, 135 patients (97 male, 38 female, mean age 43.5 years) were divided into 2 groups: (1) 80 patients with chronic ulnar-sided wrist pain and positive fovea sign and (2) 55 patients with other complaints. TFCC was assessed by RCJ and DRUJ arthroscopy and by the trampoline and hook tests to detect rupture of distal and proximal components of the TFCC. Accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, and likelihood ratio of the 2 diagnostic methods were measured and compared, using RCJ and DRUJ arthroscopy as reference.

RESULTS

The trampoline and the hook tests showed an overall accuracy of 70.37% and 86.67%, respectively. The accuracy of the trampoline test was similar for distal (69%), proximal (66%), and complete (73%) TFCC tears. The hook test was more accurate when evaluating proximal (97%) and complete (98%) tears, rather than distal lesions (75%). Sensitivity for the trampoline and hook tests was 75.00% and 0.00% (P < .001) for distal tears and 78.85% and 100.00% (P < .001) and 58.33% and 100.00% (P < .001) for complete or isolated proximal tears, respectively. Specificity for the trampoline and hook tests was 67.27% and 96.36% (P < .001) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The trampoline and hook tests can assure accurate diagnosis of peripheral TFCC tear. The hook test shows greater specificity and sensitivity to recognize foveal TFCC tears. Values of positive likelihood ratio suggest a greater probability to detect foveal laceration of peripheral TFCC for the hook test than for the trampoline test. These findings suggest that DRUJ arthroscopy is not necessary to confirm foveal incompetence of the TFCC, if the hook test is positive.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, retrospective diagnostic trial.

To map or not to map the cN0 neck: Impact of sentinel lymph node biopsy in canine head and neck tumours

Tumour stage is a prognostic indicator for canine malignant head and neck tumours (MHNT). However, consensus is lacking on nodal staging in the absence of clinically apparent nodal disease (cN0 neck). This prospective observational study aims to determine the diagnostic accuracy of radiopharmaceutical and blue dye for sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), to assess the correspondence between sentinel lymph node (SLN) and clinically expected regional lymph node (RLN) and the impact on staging of the procedure in dogs with MHNT and cN0 neck. Twenty-three dogs with MHNT and cN0 neck underwent tumour excision and SLNB guided by preoperative lymphoscintigraphy and intraoperative gamma-probe and blue dye. Diagnostic performances and detection rate were calculated. Correspondence between SLN and RLN, number of nodes excised, histopathological status of the SLN and complications related to the procedure were recorded. The mapping technique identified at least one SLN in 19/23 dogs, with a detection rate of 83%. The SLN did not correspond to the RLN in 52% of dogs. Multiple nodes were removed in 61% of dogs. At histopathology, eight (42%) dogs had SLN+, of which four differed from the RLN. Only minor self-limiting complications occurred in five (22%) dogs. Radiopharmaceutical and blue dye guidance is accurate (sensitivity 88.9%; specificity 100%) for SLNB in dogs with MHNT and cN0 and allowed the extirpation of unpredictable and/or multiple SLN with minimal morbidity. Incorporation of SLNB in the management of MHNT is desirable to correctly stage the cN0 neck, owing the unpredictability of the lymphatic drainage.

Differences in Performance Characteristics Among Four High-Throughput Assays for the Detection of Antibodies Against SARS-CoV-2 Using a Common Set of Patient Samples

OBJECTIVES

Serologic testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has experienced a changing landscape of available assays coupled with uncertainty surrounding performance characteristics. Studies are needed to directly compare multiple commercially available assays.

METHODS

Residual serum samples were identified based on SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, clinical test results, and collection dates. Serum samples were analyzed using assays from four different manufacturers: DiaSorin anti-SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG, EUROIMMUN anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG ELISA, Roche Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2, and Siemens SARS-CoV-2 Total antibody assays.

RESULTS

Samples from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive patients became increasingly positive as time from symptom onset increased. For patients with latest sample 14 or more days after symptom onset, sensitivities reached 93.1% to 96.6%, 98.3%, and 96.6% for EUROIMMUN, Roche, and Siemens assays, respectively, which were superior to the DiaSorin assay at 87.7%. The specificity of Roche and Siemens assays was 100% and superior to DiaSorin and EUROIMMUN assays, which ranged from 96.1% to 97.0% and 86.3% to 96.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Laboratories should be aware of the advantages and limitations of serology testing options for SARS-CoV-2. The specificity and sensitivity achieved by the Roche and Siemens assays would be acceptable for testing in lower-prevalence regions and have the potential of orthogonal testing advantages if used in combination.

Development and Validation of a Simplified Probability Assessment Score Integrated With Age-Adjusted d-Dimer for Diagnosis of Acute Aortic Syndromes

Background

When acute aortic syndromes (AASs) are suspected, pretest clinical probability assessment and d‐dimer (DD) testing are diagnostic options allowing standardized care. Guidelines suggest use of a 12‐item/3‐category score (aortic dissection detection) and a DD cutoff of 500 ng/mL. However, a simplified assessment tool and a more specific DD cutoff could be advantageous.

Methods and Results

In a prospective derivation cohort (n=1848), 6 items identified by logistic regression (thoracic aortic aneurysm, severe pain, sudden pain, pulse deficit, neurologic deficit, hypotension), composed a simplified score (AORTAs) assigning 2 points to hypotension and 1 to the other items. AORTAs≤1 and ≥2 defined low and high clinical probability, respectively. Age‐adjusted DD was calculated as years/age × 10 ng/mL (minimum 500). The AORTAs score and AORTAs≤1/age‐adjusted DD rule were validated in 2 patient cohorts: a high‐prevalence retrospective cohort (n=1035; 22% AASs) and a low‐prevalence prospective cohort (n=447; 11% AASs) subjected to 30‐day follow‐up. The AUC of the AORTAs score was 0.729 versus 0.697 of the aortic dissection detection score (P=0.005). AORTAs score assessment reclassified 16.6% to 25.1% of patients, with significant net reclassification improvement of 10.3% to 32.7% for AASs and −8.6 to −17% for alternative diagnoses. In both cohorts, AORTAs≥2 had superior sensitivity and slightly lower specificity than aortic dissection detection ≥2. In the prospective validation cohort, AORTAs≤1/age‐adjusted DD had a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 48.6%, and an efficiency of 43.3%.

Conclusions

AORTAs is a simplified score with increased sensitivity, improved AAS classification, and minor trade‐off in specificity, amenable to integration with age‐adjusted DD for diagnostic rule‐out.

Systematic Review of Aortic Dissection Detection Risk Score Plus D-dimer for Diagnostic Rule-out Of Suspected Acute Aortic Syndromes

OBJECTIVES

In patients at low clinical probability of acute aortic syndromes (AASs), decision on advanced aortic imaging is cumbersome. Integration of the aortic dissection detection risk score (ADD-RS) with D-dimer (DD) provides a potential pipeline for standardized diagnostic rule-out. We systematically reviewed and summarized supporting data.

METHODS

Cross-sectional studies assessing integration of ADD-RS with DD for diagnosis of AASs were identified on MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web Of Science databases. Two reviewers independently screened articles, assessed quality, and extracted data. The quality of design and reporting was evaluated with the QUADAS-2 and STARD tools. Individual patient data were obtained, to allow analysis of both conventional (500 ng/mL) and age-adjusted (DD_age-adj ) DD cutoffs. Data were summarized for four diagnostic strategies combining ADD-RS = 0 or ≤ 1, with DD < 500 ng/mL or < DD_age-adj . The statistical heterogeneity of the diagnostic variables was estimated with Higgins' I² . Pooled values were calculated for variables showing nonsignificant heterogeneity.

RESULTS

After screening of 680 studies, four articles (including a total of 3,804 patients) met inclusion criteria. One prospective study provided a low risk of bias/applicability concerns, while methodologic limitations were found in the other three retrospective studies. Statistical heterogeneity was negligible for sensitivity and negative likelihood ratio (LR) values and significant for specificity and positive LR values of all diagnostic strategies. Pooled sensitivity was 99.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 99.3% to 100%, I²  = 0) for ADD-RS = 0 and DD < 500 ng/mL or < DD_age-adj , 98.9% (95% CI = 97.9% to 99.9%, I²  = 0) for ADD-RS ≤ 1 and DD < 500 ng/mL, and 97.6% (95% CI = 96.3% to 98.9%, I²  = 0) for ADD-RS ≤ 1 and DD < DD_age-adj .

CONCLUSIONS

Despite methodologic limitations, integration of ADD-RS = 0 or ≤ 1 with DD < 500 ng/mL shows negligible heterogeneity and consistently high sensitivity across studies, thus supporting reliability for diagnostic rule-out of AASs. Data supporting ADD-RS = 0 plus DD_age-adj appear preliminary and require further scrutiny.

Confidence at 100%: Characteristics of Likelihood Ratio Confidence Intervals in the Emergency Medicine Diagnostics Literature

OBJECTIVE

We hypothesized that "perfect" 100% sample sensitivity or specificity (PSSS) is common in the emergency medicine (EM) literature. When results yield PSSS, calculating the likelihood ratio (LR) 95% confidence interval (CI) has been challenging. Consequently, we also hypothesized that studies with PSSS would be less likely to report the LR and associated CI, and those that did would use imperfect methods.

METHODS

We searched PubMed or Scopus for all articles reporting diagnostic test results in the 20 top EM journals from 2011 to 2016 and randomly sampled 124 articles. Trained researchers coded the articles as having PSSS or not ("controls"). We separately sampled 100 articles with PSSS and compared them to 100 controls in terms of their reporting of diagnostic tests and associated CIs.

RESULTS

Of the 124 articles, 19.4% (95% CI = 13% to 27.6%) feature a diagnostic test with PSSS. The LR is reported significantly less often in PSSS studies versus control studies: 18 of 100 articles (18% [95% CI = 11.3% to 27.2%]) versus 34 of 100 articles (34% [95% CI = 25% to 44.2%]), with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.43 (95% CI = 0.21 to 0.86). The LR 95% CI is also reported less often in PSSS versus control studies: five of 100 articles (5% [95% CI = 1.9% to 11.8%]) versus 27 of 100 articles (27% [95% CI = 18.8% to 37%]), with an OR of 0.11 (95% CI = 0.02 to 0.44). Five articles with perfect sample sensitivity reported their negative LR CI. The bootstrap method resulted in CIs that were 42.7% smaller on average (range = 16.6% to 63.6%).

CONCLUSION

This analysis provides systematic evidence of diagnostic test reporting in the EM literature. Sample sensitivity or specificity of 100% is common. LRs and their associated 95% CIs are infrequently reported, particularly for PSSS samples. When the LR CI is reported in this scenario, it is overly wide. Improved reporting and methods can enhance the utility and confidence in diagnostic tests in EM.

Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting Data System Magnetic Resonance Imaging (O-RADS MRI) Score for Risk Stratification of Sonographically Indeterminate Adnexal Masses

IMPORTANCE

Approximately one-quarter of adnexal masses detected at ultrasonography are indeterminate for benignity or malignancy, posing a substantial clinical dilemma.

OBJECTIVE

To validate the accuracy of a 5-point Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting Data System Magnetic Resonance Imaging (O-RADS MRI) score for risk stratification of adnexal masses.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter cohort study was conducted between March 1, 2013, and March 31, 2016. Among patients undergoing expectant management, 2-year follow-up data were completed by March 31, 2018. A routine pelvic MRI was performed among consecutive patients referred to characterize a sonographically indeterminate adnexal mass according to routine diagnostic practice at 15 referral centers. The MRI score was prospectively applied by 2 onsite readers and by 1 reader masked to clinical and ultrasonographic data. Data analysis was conducted between April and November 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was the joint analysis of true-negative and false-negative rates according to the MRI score compared with the reference standard (ie, histology or 2-year follow-up).

RESULTS

A total of 1340 women (mean [range] age, 49 [18-96] years) were enrolled. Of 1194 evaluable women, 1130 (94.6%) had a pelvic mass on MRI with a reference standard (surgery, 768 [67.9%]; 2-year follow-up, 362 [32.1%]). A total of 203 patients (18.0%) had at least 1 malignant adnexal or nonadnexal pelvic mass. No invasive cancer was assigned a score of 2. Positive likelihood ratios were 0.01 for score 2, 0.27 for score 3, 4.42 for score 4, and 38.81 for score 5. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.961 (95% CI, 0.948-0.971) among experienced readers, with a sensitivity of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.89-0.96; 189 of 203 patients) and a specificity of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.89-0.93; 848 of 927 patients). There was good interrater agreement among both experienced and junior readers (κ = 0.784; 95% CI, 0.743-0824). Of 580 of 1130 women (51.3%) with a mass on MRI and no specific gynecological symptoms, 362 (62.4%) underwent surgery. Of them, 244 (67.4%) had benign lesions and a score of 3 or less. The MRI score correctly reclassified the mass origin as nonadnexal with a sensitivity of 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-0.99; 1360 of 1372 patients) and a specificity of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71-0.85; 102 of 130 patients).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, the O-RADS MRI score was accurate when stratifying the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses.

Epidemiology and diagnosis of pulmonary embolism in lung cancer patients: is there a role for age adjusted D-dimers cutoff?

Our knowledge about the incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) and the performance of age adjusted D-dimers (Dd) cutoff amongst patients with lung cancer (LC) and suspected PE, remains limited. We retrospectively analyzed all clinically suspected patients who underwent computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) in a tertiary hospital during a 19 month period. Cancer diagnosis was established using ICD10 code. Eligible for Dd analysis were those tested up to 24 h prior to the scan. We analyzed 2549 patients (54.6% males, median age 68.8 years, IQR 57-78), 15.8% had active LC and 5.4% other cancers (oC), while 70% were scanned in the Emergency Department (ED) and the rest during hospitalization. Overall incidence of PE was 16%. LC, but not oC, increased significantly the risk for PE (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.21-2.06). LC patients were less likely to have bilateral (aOR 0.16, 95% CI 0.07-0.4) or central PE (aOR 0.2, 95% CI 0.09-0.48). Amongst those diagnosed with PE in the ED, LC increased all-cause inhospital mortality (aOR 6.7, 95% CI 2.64-16.95). When age adjusted instead of conventional Dd cutoff was used for ruling out PE in the ED, specificity for LC patients increased (10.16% vs 3.91%) without false negative tests (negative likelihood ratio-NLR = 0). A higher cutoff of 1.13 mg/l raised specificity to 28.9%, with only one case missed (sensitivity: 97.4%, NLR: 0.09, 95% CI 0.01-0.64). LC increases the risk for PE and adversely affects prognosis. Age adjusted and probably an even higher, "LC adjusted" Dd cutoff, could increase the specificity of the test without compromising its sensitivity.

Accuracy of diagnostic tests and a new algorithm for diagnosing cytomegalovirus colitis in inflammatory bowel diseases: a diagnostic study

PURPOSE

The optimal method for detecting CMV colitis in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has not been established. We wanted to investigate which diagnostic test would be most accurate when defining CMV colitis rather by the further clinical course than by using another diagnostic modality.

METHODS

All consecutive patients with moderately or severely active IBD who had been tested for CMV by PCR, histology, or antigenemia assay at the two campuses CBF and CCM of the Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin between September 2006 and September 2009 were included in this retrospective study. During that time, in patients with a positive CMV test, immunosuppressive treatment of any kind was immediately reduced and antiviral treatment was started. This allowed identifying patients who responded to antiviral treatment and those who only responded to later escalation of immunosuppressive therapy.

RESULTS

One hundred and nine patients were identified, out of whom nine were considered to have clinically relevant CMV colitis. Sensitivity and specificity were 1 and 0.94 for CMV PCR and 0.5 and 1 for pp65 antigen immunofluorescence assay from peripheral blood, 0.67 and 0.98 for immunohistochemistry, and 0.17 and 0.98 for hematoxylin-eosin staining. When using absence of leukocytosis, splenomegaly, and steroid refractory disease as clinical parameters to test for CMV colitis, blood CMV PCR and immunohistochemistry were able to exclude CMV colitis in negative patients with a 75% likelihood of positive patients to have clinically relevant CMV colitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood-based CMV PCR together with simple clinical parameters can exclude clinically relevant CMV colitis at a high specificity.

Laryngeal dysplasia and narrow band imaging: Secondary analysis of published data supports the role in patient follow-up

BACKGROUND

Clinicians have recognised the role of narrow band imaging (NBI) in the management of head and neck cancer in several studies. However, a recent systematic review was unable to pool the data on diagnostic efficacy in this setting owing to the heterogeneity in the published data.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of data, utilising Bayes' theorem, from meta-analyses and randomised trials.

RESULTS

In patients with a histological diagnosis of mild dysplasia who show no abnormalities on NBI, the post-test probability of malignancy is estimated to be 2.3%, compared to 10.3% with conventional white light imaging (WLI). For severe dysplasia, similar post-test probabilities after NBI and WLI are estimated to be 8.0% and 29.7%, respectively. Post-test probabilities in this setting indicate the chance of missing malignancy following a negative NBI or WLI in patients who undergo no further intervention. This study also provides a nomogram designed for use in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies the evidence base for use of NBI in the follow-up for laryngeal dysplasia.

Criteria for Identifying Patients With Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia Who Are at Low Risk of Endocarditis: A Systematic Review

This systematic review examines the methods and results of recent studies reporting clinical criteria able to identify patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia who are at very low risk of endocarditis. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Collaboration CENTRAL database for articles published after March 1994 using a combination of MeSH and free text search terms for S. aureus AND bacteremia AND endocarditis. Studies were included if they presented a combination of clinical and microbiological criteria with a negative likelihood ratio of ≤0.20 for endocarditis. We found 8 studies employing various criteria and reference standards whose criteria were associated with negative likelihood ratios between 0.00 and 0.19 (corresponding to 0%-5% risk of endocarditis at 20% background prevalence). The benefit of echocardiography for patients fulfilling these criteria is uncertain.