The validity of heart failure diagnoses in the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register

Microbiome-based risk prediction in incident heart failure: a community challenge

Heart failure (HF) is a major public health problem. Early identification of at-risk individuals could allow for interventions that reduce morbidity or mortality. The community-based FINRISK Microbiome DREAM challenge (synapse.org/finrisk) evaluated the use of machine learning approaches on shotgun metagenomics data obtained from fecal samples to predict incident HF risk over 15 years in a population cohort of 7231 Finnish adults (FINRISK 2002, n=559 incident HF cases). Challenge participants used synthetic data for model training and testing. Final models submitted by seven teams were evaluated in the real data. The two highest-scoring models were both based on Cox regression but used different feature selection approaches. We aggregated their predictions to create an ensemble model. Additionally, we refined the models after the DREAM challenge by eliminating phylum information. Models were also evaluated at intermediate timepoints and they predicted 10-year incident HF more accurately than models for 5- or 15-year incidence. We found that bacterial species, especially those linked to inflammation, are predictive of incident HF. This highlights the role of the gut microbiome as a potential driver of inflammation in HF pathophysiology. Our results provide insights into potential modeling strategies of microbiome data in prospective cohort studies. Overall, this study provides evidence that incorporating microbiome information into incident risk models can provide important biological insights into the pathogenesis of HF.

Transformers for cardiac patient mortality risk prediction from heterogeneous electronic health records

With over 17 million annual deaths, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) dominate the cause of death statistics. CVDs can deteriorate the quality of life drastically and even cause sudden death, all the while inducing massive healthcare costs. This work studied state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to predict increased risk of death in CVD patients, building on the electronic health records (EHR) of over 23,000 cardiac patients. Taking into account the usefulness of the prediction for chronic disease patients, a prediction period of six months was selected. Two major transformer models that rely on learning bidirectional dependencies in sequential data, BERT and XLNet, were trained and compared. To our knowledge, the presented work is the first to apply XLNet on EHR data to predict mortality. The patient histories were formulated as time series consisting of varying types of clinical events, thus enabling the model to learn increasingly complex temporal dependencies. BERT and XLNet achieved an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 75.5% and 76.0%, respectively. XLNet surpassed BERT in recall by 9.8%, suggesting that it captures more positive cases than BERT, which is the main focus of recent research on EHRs and transformers.

Cause-Specific Mortality of Patients With Atrial Septal Defect and Up to 50 Years of Follow-Up

Background This study aimed to evaluate the long-term mortality and cause-specific mortality of patients with atrial septal defect (ASD) in a nationwide cohort. Methods and Results All patients diagnosed with simple ASD in the hospital discharge registry from 1969 to 2019 were included in the study. Complex congenital defects were excluded. Each subject was matched with 5 controls according to sex, age, and municipality at the index time. Adjusted mortality risk ratios (MRRs) were calculated using Poisson regression models. The median follow-up time was 11.1 years. Patients with ASD had higher overall mortality during follow-up, with an adjusted MRR of 1.72 (95% CI, 1.61-1.83). Patients with closed ASDs also had higher total mortality (MRR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.10-1.51]). However, no difference in mortality was detected if the defect was closed before the age of 30 (MRR, 1.58 [95% CI, 0.90-2.77]), and transcatheter closed defects had lower mortality than the control cohort (MRR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.42-0.99]). Patients with ASD had significantly more deaths due to congenital malformations (MRR, 54.61 [95% CI, 34.03-87.64]), other diseases of the circulatory system (MRR, 2.90 [95% CI, 2.42-3.49]), stroke (MRR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.52-2.33]), diseases of the endocrine (MRR, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.10-3.22]) and respiratory system (MRR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.19-2.45]), ischemic heart disease (MRR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.41-1.86]), and accidents (MRR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.05-1.89]). Conclusions Patients with ASD had higher overall mortality compared with a matched general population cohort. Increased cause-specific mortality was seen in congenital malformations, stroke, and heart diseases.

The validity of rheumatoid arthritis diagnoses in Finnish biobanks

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the validity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diagnoses in patients participating in Finnish biobanks.

METHOD

We reviewed the electronic medical records of 500 Finnish biobank participants: 125 patients with at least one visit with a diagnosis of seropositive RA, 125 patients with at least one visit with a diagnosis of seronegative RA, and 250 age- and gender-matched controls. The patients were chosen from five different biobank hospitals in Finland. A rheumatologist reviewed the medical records to assess whether each patients' diagnosis was correct. The diagnosis was compared with the diagnostic codes in the Finnish Care Register for Health Care (CRHC) and special reimbursement data of the Social Insurance Institution of Finland.

RESULTS

The positive predictive value (PPV) of CRHC diagnosis of RA (for seropositive and seronegative RA combined) was 0.82. For patients with a special reimbursement for anti-rheumatic medications for RA, the PPV was 0.89. The PPV was higher in patients with more than one visit. For one, two, five, and 10 visits, the PPV was 0.82, 0.85, 0.89, and 0.90, respectively, and for patients who also had the special reimbursement, the PPV was 0.89, 0.91, 0.93, and 0.94 for one, two, five, and 10 visits, respectively. In patients positive for anti-citrullinated protein antibodies, the PPV was 0.98.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate that the validity of RA diagnoses in Finnish biobanks was good and can be further improved by including data on special reimbursement for medication, number of visits, and serological data.

Clinical characteristics and mortality of patients with heart failure in Southern Sweden from 2013 to 2019: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To describe clinical characteristics and prognosis related to heart failure (HF) phenotypes in a community-based population by applying a novel algorithm to obtain ejection fractions (EF) from electronic medical records.

DESIGN

Retrospective population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Data were collected for all patients with HF in Southwest Sweden. The region consists of three acute care hospitals, 40 inpatient wards, 2 emergency departments, 30 outpatient specialty clinics and 48 primary healthcare.

PARTICIPANTS

8902 patients had an HF diagnosis based on the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision during the study period. Patients <18 years as well as patients declining to participate were excluded resulting in a study population of 8775 patients.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was distribution of HF phenotypes by echocardiography. The secondary outcome measures were 1 year all-cause mortality and HR for all-cause mortality using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Out of 8775 patients with HF, 5023 (57%) had a conclusive echocardiography distributed into HF with reduced EF (35%), HF with mildly reduced EF (27%) and HF with preserved EF (38%). A total of 43% of the cohort did not have a conclusive echocardiography, and therefore no defined phenotype (HF-NDP). One-year all-cause mortality was 42% within the HF-NDP group and 30% among those with a conclusive EF. The HR of all-cause mortality in the HF-NDP group was 1.27 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.37) when compared with the confirmed EF group. There was no significant difference in survival within the HF phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based study showed a distribution of HF phenotypes that varies from those in selected HF registries, with fewer patients with HF with reduced EF and more patients with HF with preserved EF. Furthermore, 1-year all-cause mortality was significantly higher among patients with HF who had not undergone a conclusive echocardiography at diagnosis, highlighting the importance of correct diagnostic procedure to improve treatment strategies and outcomes.

Genetic risk factors have a substantial impact on healthy life years

The impact of genetic variation on overall disease burden has not been comprehensively evaluated. We introduce an approach to estimate the effect of genetic risk factors on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; 'lost healthy life years'). We use genetic information from 735,748 individuals and consider 80 diseases. Rare variants had the highest effect on DALYs at the individual level. Among common variants, rs3798220 (LPA) had the strongest individual-level effect, with 1.18 DALYs from carrying 1 versus 0 copies. Being in the top 10% versus the bottom 90% of a polygenic score for multisite chronic pain had an effect of 3.63 DALYs. Some common variants had a population-level effect comparable to modifiable risk factors such as high sodium intake and low physical activity. Attributable DALYs vary between males and females for some genetic exposures. Genetic risk factors can explain a sizable number of healthy life years lost both at the individual and population level.

Long-term cardiovascular prognosis of patients with type 1 diabetes after myocardial infarction

Background

To explore long-term cardiovascular prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI) among patients with type 1 diabetes.

Methods

Patients with type 1 diabetes surviving 90 days after MI (n = 1508; 60% male, mean age = 62.1 years) or without any type of diabetes (n = 62,785) in Finland during 2005–2018 were retrospectively studied using multiple national registries. The primary outcome of interest was a combined major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; cardiovascular death, recurrent MI, ischemic stroke, or heart failure hospitalization) studied with a competing risk Fine-Gray analyses. Median follow-up was 3.9 years (maximum 12 years). Differences between groups were balanced by multivariable adjustments and propensity score matching (n = 1401 patient pairs).

Results

Cumulative incidence of MACE after MI was higher in patients with type 1 diabetes (67.6%) compared to propensity score-matched patients without diabetes (46.0%) (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR]: 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.74–2.17; p < 0.0001). Probabilities of cardiovascular death (sHR 1.81; p < 0.0001), recurrent MI (sHR 1.91; p < 0.0001), ischemic stroke (sHR 1.50; p = 0.0003), and heart failure hospitalization (sHR 1.98; p < 0.0001) were higher in patients with type 1 diabetes. Incidence of MACE was higher in diabetes patients than in controls in subgroups of men and women, patients aged < 60 and ≥ 60 years, revascularized and non-revascularized patients, and patients with and without atrial fibrillation, heart failure, or malignancy.

Conclusions

Patients with type 1 diabetes have notably poorer long-term cardiovascular prognosis after an MI compared to patients without diabetes. These results underline the importance of effective secondary prevention after MI in patients with type 1 diabetes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01608-3.

Digoxin use and outcomes after myocardial infarction in patients with atrial fibrillation

Digoxin is used for rate control in atrial fibrillation (AF), but evidence for its efficacy and safety after myocardial infarction (MI) is scarce and mixed. We studied post‐MI digoxin use effects on AF patient outcomes in a nationwide registry follow‐up study in Finland. Digoxin was used by 18.6% of AF patients after MI, with a decreasing usage trend during 2004–2014. Baseline differences in digoxin users (n = 881) and controls (n = 3898) were balanced with inverse probability of treatment weight adjustment. The median follow‐up was 7.4 years. Patients using digoxin after MI had a higher cumulative all‐cause mortality (77.4% vs. 72.3%; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.19; confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.32; p = 0.001) during a 10‐year follow‐up. Mortality differences were detected in a subgroup analysis of patients without baseline heart failure (HF) (HR: 1.23; p = 0.019) but not in patients with baseline HF (HR: 1.05; p = 0.413). Cumulative incidences of HF hospitalizations, stroke and new MI were similar between digoxin group and controls. In conclusion, digoxin use after MI is associated with increased mortality but not with HF hospitalizations, new MI or stroke in AF patients. Increased mortality was detected in patients without baseline HF. Results suggest caution with digoxin after MI in AF patients, especially in the absence of HF.

A nationwide registry study on heart failure in Norway from 2008 to 2018: variations in lookback period affect incidence estimates

Background

The incidence of heart failure (HF) has declined in Europe during the past two decades. However, incidence estimates from registry-based studies may vary, partly because they depend on retrospective searches to exclude previous events. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent different lookback periods (LPs) affect temporal trends in incidence, and to identify the minimal acceptable LP. Further, we wanted to estimate temporal trends in incidence and prevalence of HF in a nationwide population, using the minimal acceptable LP.

Methods

We identified all in- and out-patient contacts for HF in Norway during 2008 to 2018 from the Norwegian Patient Registry. To calculate the influence of varying LP on incident cases, we defined 2018 with 10 years of LP as a reference and calculated the relative difference by using one through 9 years of lookback. Temporal trends in incidence rates were estimated with sensitivity analyses applying varying LPs and different case definitions. Standardised incidence rates and prevalence were calculated by applying direct age- and sex-standardization to the 2013 European Standard Population.

Results

The overestimation of incident cases declined with increasing number of years included in the LP. Compared to a 10-year LP, application of 4, 6, and 8 years resulted in an overestimation of incident cases by 13.5%, 6.2% and 2.3%, respectively. Temporal trends in incidence were affected by the number of years in the LP and whether the LP was fixed or varied. Including all available data mislead to conclusions of declining incidence rates over time due to increasing LPs.

Conclusions

When taking the number of years with available data and HF mortality and morbidity into consideration, we propose that 6 years of fixed lookback is sufficient for identification of incident HF cases. HF incidence rates and prevalence increased from 2014 to 2018.

Trial registration

Retrospectively registered.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02522-y.

Prevalence and long-term prognostic implications of prolonged QRS duration in left ventricular hypertrophy: a population-based observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES

ECG left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH) has been associated with left ventricular dysfunction and adverse prognosis, but little is known about the prevalence and prognostic significance of different levels of QRS duration in the presence of ECG-LVH in a general population.

DESIGN

Population-based observational prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative random cluster of Finnish adult population.

METHODS

We assessed the prevalence and long-term (median 15.9 years) prognostic significance of QRS duration in ECG-LVH, and compared the risk to individuals without ECG-LVH in a predominantly middle-aged random sample of 6033 Finnish subjects aged over 30 years (mean age 52.2, SD 14.6 years), who participated in a health examination including a 12-lead ECG.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, incidence of heart failure (HF).

RESULTS

ECG-LVH was present in 1337 (22.2%) subjects; 403 of these (30.1%) had QRS duration ≥100 ms and 100 (7.5%) had ≥110 ms. The increased risk of mortality in ECG-LVH became evident after a QRS threshold of ≥100 ms. After controlling for known clinical risk factors, QRS 100-109 ms was associated with increased cardiovascular (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.88, p=0.045) and QRS≥110 ms with cardiovascular (1.74, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.82, p=0.025) and all-cause mortality (1.52, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.25, p=0.039) in ECG-LVH. The risk of new-onset HF was two-fold in subjects with QRS 100-109 ms and threefold in subjects with QRS ≥110 ms, even after adjustment for incident myocardial infarction within the follow-up. When the prognosis was compared with subjects without ECG-LVH, subjects with ECG-LVH but QRS duration <100 ms displayed similar mortality rates with or without ECG-LVH but higher rates of incident HF.

CONCLUSIONS

In ECG-LVH, the risk of excess mortality and new-onset HF markedly increases with longer QRS duration, but even QRS duration within normal limits in ECG-LVH carried a risk of HF compared with the risk in individuals without ECG-LVH.

Diabetes status-related differences in risk factors and mediators of heart failure in the general population: results from the MORGAM/BiomarCaRE consortium

Background

The risk of heart failure among diabetic individuals is high, even under tight glycemic control. The correlates and mediators of heart failure risk in individuals with diabetes need more elucidation in large population-based cohorts with long follow-up times and a wide panel of biologically relevant biomarkers.

Methods

In a population-based sample of 3834 diabetic and 90,177 non-diabetic individuals, proportional hazards models and mediation analysis were used to assess the relation of conventional heart failure risk factors and biomarkers with incident heart failure.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 13.8 years, a total of 652 (17.0%) and 5524 (6.1%) cases of incident heart failure were observed in participants with and without diabetes, respectively. 51.4% were women and the mean age at baseline was 48.7 (standard deviation [SD] 12.5) years. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for heart failure among diabetic individuals was 2.70 (95% confidence interval, 2.49–2.93) compared to non-diabetic participants. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox models, conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors, such as smoking (diabetes: HR 2.07 [1.59–2.69]; non-diabetes: HR 1.85 [1.68–2.02]), BMI (diabetes: HR 1.30 [1.18–1.42]; non-diabetes: HR 1.40 [1.35–1.47]), baseline myocardial infarction (diabetes: HR 2.06 [1.55–2.75]; non-diabetes: HR 2.86 [2.50–3.28]), and baseline atrial fibrillation (diabetes: HR 1.51 [0.82–2.80]; non-diabetes: HR 2.97 [2.21–4.00]) had the strongest associations with incident heart failure. In addition, biomarkers for cardiac strain (represented by nT-proBNP, diabetes: HR 1.26 [1.19–1.34]; non-diabetes: HR 1.43 [1.39–1.47]), myocardial injury (hs-TnI, diabetes: HR 1.10 [1.04–1.16]; non-diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.10–1.16]), and inflammation (hs-CRP, diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.03–1.24]; non-diabetes: HR 1.29 [1.25–1.34]) were also associated with incident heart failure. In general, all these associations were equally strong in non-diabetic and diabetic individuals. However, the strongest mediators of heart failure in diabetes were the direct effect of diabetes status itself (relative effect share 43.1% [33.9–52.3] and indirect effects (effect share 56.9% [47.7-66.1]) mediated by obesity (BMI, 13.2% [10.3–16.2]), cardiac strain/volume overload (nT-proBNP, 8.4% [-0.7–17.4]), and hyperglycemia (glucose, 12.0% [4.2–19.9]).

Conclusions

The findings suggest that the main mediators of heart failure in diabetes are obesity, hyperglycemia, and cardiac strain/volume overload. Conventional cardiovascular risk factors are strongly related to incident heart failure, but these associations are not stronger in diabetic than in non-diabetic individuals. Active measurement of relevant biomarkers could potentially be used to improve prevention and prediction of heart failure in high-risk diabetic patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01378-4.

Long-term population-based trends in the incidence of cardiovascular disease in individuals with type 1 diabetes from Finland: a retrospective, nationwide, cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the main determinant of premature mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes. However, time trends regarding different types of cardiovascular disease in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes with a long timespan from the diagnosis of diabetes are not well established. This study aimed to investigate the cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease in individuals with type 1 diabetes in a population-based cohort in Finland, the country with the world's highest incidence of type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

In this retrospective, nationwide registry-based, cohort study, all patients who were diagnosed between Jan 1, 1965, and Dec 31, 1999 with type 1 diabetes when they were younger than 15 years old in Finland were followed up and monitored for the occurrence of cardiovascular disease (including coronary artery disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, and heart failure) until the end of 2016 and for cardiovascular disease mortality until 2017. Cumulative incidences of cardiovascular disease were calculated by the Fine and Gray method according to the year of diabetes diagnosis using six diagnosis cohorts: 1965-69, 1970-74, 1975-1979, 1980-84, 1985-89, 1990-94, and 1990-95. Trends in cardiovascular disease event rates were analysed by Fine and Gray competing risks regression models using year of diabetes diagnosis as continuous variable. In addition, non-linearity in trends was assessed with restricted cubic splines. The excess risk of coronary artery disease and stroke was estimated by comparison with the risk in the Finnish general population by calculating standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and their time trends. The data for Finnish general population were drawn from the Cardiovascular Disease Register of the National Institute of Health and Welfare. The SIRs were calculated as ratios of observed and expected number of events in individuals with type 1 diabetes during 1991-2014.

FINDINGS

11 766 individuals were included in this study. During 361 033 person-years of follow-up and a median of 29·6 years (IQR 22·3-37·9) follow-up, a total of 1761 individuals had single or multiple types of cardiovascular disease events. 2686 events (864 [32·2%] coronary artery disease events, of which 663 were acute myocardial infarctions; 497 [18·5%] strokes; 854 [31·8%] peripheral artery diseases, of which 498 were lower extremity amputations; and 471 [17·5%] heart failure events) were reported until Dec 31, 2016, and 1467 deaths until Dec 31, 2017. Cardiovascular disease risk decreased linearly by 3·8% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·96 [95% CI 0·96-0·97]; p<0·0001) by later calendar year of diabetes diagnosis (p<0·0001). There was a decrease in the SIRs for both coronary artery disease and stroke within all 10-year age groups under 65 years, except for stroke in the oldest age group. However, the SIR was still 8·9 (95% CI 3·9-17·5) for coronary artery disease and 2·9 (1·3-5·7) for stroke in those diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in the 1990s. Finally, the cardiovascular disease death rate decreased constantly by diagnosis year.

INTERPRETATION

The risk of cardiovascular disease has decreased over time in Finland in individuals with childhood-onset type 1 diabetes. However, there is still considerable excess cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with type 1 diabetes compared with the general population. These results highlight the need for studies on the mechanisms of atherosclerosis from the time of diagnosis of type 1 diabetes to facilitate early and effective prevention of cardiovascular disease in these individuals.

FUNDING

Folkhälsan Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, Wilhelm and Else Stockmann Foundation, Liv och Hälsa Society, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, Finnish Diabetes Research Foundation, Diabetes Research Foundation, Medical Society of Finland, Sigrid Jusélius Foundation, and Helsinki University Hospital Research Funds.

Cooperative Studies Program (CSP) #572: A Study of Serious Mental Illness in Veterans as a Pathway to personalized medicine in Schizophrenia and Bipolar Illness

BACKGROUND

Personalization of psychiatric treatment includes treatment of symptoms, cognition and functional deficits, suicide, and medical co-morbidities. VA Collaborative Study 572 examined a large sample of male and female veterans with schizophrenia (n=3,942) and with bipolar disorder (n=5,414) with phenotyping and genomic analyses. We present the results to date and future directions.

METHODS

All veterans received a structured diagnostic interview and assessments of suicidal ideation and behavior, PTSD, and health. Veterans with schizophrenia were assessed for negative symptoms and lifetime depression. All were assessed with a cognitive and functional capacity assessment. Data for genome wide association studies were collected. Controls came from the VA Million Veteran Program.

RESULTS

Suicidal ideation or behavior was present in 66%. Cognitive and functional deficits were consistent with previous studies. 40% of the veterans with schizophrenia had a lifetime major depressive episode and PTSD was present in over 30%. Polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses indicated that cognitive and functional deficits overlapped with PRS for cognition, education, and intelligence in the general population and PRS for suicidal ideation and behavior correlated with previous PRS for depression and suicidal ideation and behavior, as did the PRS for PTSD.

DISCUSSION

Results to date provide directions for personalization of treatment in SMI, veterans with SMI, and veterans in general. The results of the genomic analyses suggest that cognitive deficits in SMI may be associated with general population features. Upcoming genomic analyses will reexamine the issues above, as well as genomic factors associated with smoking, substance abuse, negative symptoms, and treatment response.

Low testosterone concentrations and prediction of future heart failure in men and in women: evidence from the large FINRISK97 study

Aims

The increased incidence of heart failure in men suggests that endogenous sex hormones might play a role in the development of heart failure, but epidemiological data remain sparse. Here, we evaluated the predictive value of low testosterone levels on future heart failure in the large population‐based FINRISK97 study.

Methods and results

Baseline serum testosterone concentrations were measured in 7855 subjects (3865 men and 3990 women) of the FINRISK97 study. During a median follow‐up (FU) of 13.8 years, a total of 564 heart failure events were recorded. The age‐adjusted baseline testosterone levels did not differ significantly between subjects developing incident heart failure during FU and those without incident events during FU (men: 16.6 vs. 17.1 nmol/L, P = 0.75; women: 1.15 vs. 1.17 nmol/L, P = 0.32). Relevant statistically significant correlations of testosterone levels were found with high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (R = 0.22; P < 0.001), body mass index (R = −0.23; P < 0.001), and waist‐to‐hip ratio (R = −0.21; P < 0.001) in men, while statistically significant correlations in women were negligible in effect size. In sex‐stratified Cox regression analyses, taking age into account, a quite strong association between low testosterone and incident heart failure was found in men [hazard ratio (HR) 1.51 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.09–2.10); P = 0.020 for lowest vs. highest quarter], but not in women [HR 0.70 (95% CI: 0.49–0.98); P = 0.086 for lowest vs. highest quarter]. Nevertheless, this association turned non‐significant after full adjustment including body mass index and waist‐to‐hip ratio, and testosterone levels were no longer predictive for incident heart failure—neither in men [HR 0.99 (95% CI: 0.70–1.42); P = 0.77 for lowest vs. highest quarter] nor in women [HR 0.92 (95% CI: 0.64–1.33); P = 0.99 for lowest vs. highest quarter]. Accordingly, Kaplan–Meier analyses did not reveal significant association of testosterone levels with heart failure.

Conclusions

Low levels of testosterone do not independently predict future heart failure.

24-h urinary sodium excretion and the risk of adverse outcomes

AIMS

The objective was to evaluate whether sodium intake, assessed with the gold standard 24-h urinary collections, was related to long-term incidence of death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

A cohort of 4630 individuals aged 25-64 years collected 24-h urine samples in 1979-2002 and were followed up to 14 years for the incidence of any CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF) and DM event, and death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between the baseline salt intake and incident events and adjusted for baseline age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, prevalent DM, and stratified by sex and cohort baseline year.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, we observed 423 deaths, 424 CVD events (288 CHD events, 142 strokes, 139 HF events) and 161 DM events. Compared with the highest quartile of salt intake, persons in the lowest quartile had a lower incidence of CVD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.95, p = .02), CHD (HR 0.63 [95% CI 0.42-0.94], p = .02) and DM (HR 0.52 [95% CI 0.31-0.87], p = .01). The results were non-significant for mortality, HF, and stroke.

CONCLUSION

High sodium intake is associated with an increased incidence of CVD and DM.

Comparing data sources in estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a cross-sectional setting in Finland

Background

The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) summarize the burden of years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and years lost due to disability (YLD). Our aim was to estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Finland in 2012, and to examine, how much the YLD are affected by the use of different data sources.

Methods

The YLL were calculated using mortality data for the Finnish 25–74-year-old population in 2012. The YLD were calculated using data from the FINRISK 2012 survey (3041 males, 3383 females aged 25–74 years) and then directly adjusted to the corresponding population. Different administrative registers on 1) hospital inpatient episodes and specialist outpatient visits, 2) entitlement to specially reimbursed medicines, and 3) purchases of prescribed medicines were used for estimation of the YLD in addition to self-reported data. The DALYs were calculated without age-weighting.

Results

The YLL for IHD were 37.5 for males and 9.1 for females per 1000 population among 25–74-year-old people in Finland in 2012. The YLD for IHD varied markedly depending on which data sources were used. All data sources combined, the YLD per 1000 were 5.3 for males and 2.5 for females resulting in estimated 42.8 and 11.6 DALYs per 1000 due to IHD among males and females, respectively. For COPD, the YLL were 4.7 for males and 2.0 for females per 1000. Also for COPD, the YLD varied markedly depending on data sources used. The YLD per 1000 based on all data sources combined were 2.0 for males and 1.6 for females. As a result, estimated 6.7 and 3.6 DALYs per 1000 were due to COPD among males and females, respectively.

Conclusions

Especially for COPD, all mild disease cases could probably not be identified from the included registers. Thereby, including survey data improved the coverage of the data. The YLD of IHD and COPD varied markedly between the data sources used in the calculations. However, as YLL constituted a major part of DALYs for these diseases, the variation in YLD did not lead to substantial variation in DALYs.

Relation of intraventricular conduction delay to risk of new-onset heart failure and structural heart disease in the general population

•

Subjects with high-risk of developing heart failure ought to be identified.

•

Non-specific IVCD and LBBB were associated with risk of new-onset heart failure.

•

LBBB also carried a risk of novel structural heart disease in 15-year follow-up.

•

Their presence should alert clinician even in subjects free of any known heart disease.

•

Right bundle branch block and other blocks were not associated with increased risk.

Background

Intraventricular conduction delays (IVCDs) are hallmarks of heart failure (HF) and structural heart disease (SHD) but their prognostic value for HF and SHD is unclear.

Methods

Relation of eight IVCDs and the incidence of first-time HF or SHD was studied in a nationally representative random sample of 6080 Finnish subjects aged ≥ 30 years (mean age 52.1, SD 14.5 years) who participated in the health examination including 12-lead ECG.

Results

During 16.5 years’ follow up, half of the subjects with left bundle branch block (LBBB) and one third of the subjects with non-specific IVCD developed HF. After controlling for known clinical risk factors the hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset HF for LBBB was 3.29 (95% confidence interval 1.93–5.63, P < 0.001) and 3.53 for non-specific IVCD (1.65–7.55, P = 0.001). In corresponding analysis, LBBB predicted SHD with HR 2.60 (1.21–5.62, P = 0.015). Excluding subjects with history of heart disease, including coronary heart disease, did not have impact on results. Right bundle branch block and other IVCDs displayed no relation to endpoints.

Conclusion

LBBB and non-specific IVCD were associated with more than three-fold risk of new-onset HF. Furthermore, LBBB was associated with novel SHD. Their presence should alert clinician even in subjects free from any known heart disease.