Economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s Great Recession and long-term changes in mental health: a prospective analysis from the Moli-sani study

PURPOSE

Economic downturns may have detrimental effects on mental health. We investigated the association of economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s Great Recession with long-term changes in mental health.

METHODS

We analysed data from 1,647 participants to the larger Moli-sani cohort (2005-2010, Italy), who were re-examined between 2017 and 2020. To evaluate economic hardship, we performed a Latent Class Analysis on nine items linked to change in employment status and financial hardship. Depression symptoms were measured by the Patients' Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2; higher values indicate more depressive symptoms; data available in N = 941 individuals) and health perception as assessed by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (decreased values indicate worsening of health perception).

RESULTS

Economic hardship was categorized into three classes: "None", "Average" and "High", the latter reflecting increasing economic hardship. Mean (standard deviation) changes in PHQ-2, SF-36 mental and physical after 12.8 years (median) were - 0.1 (1.3), 0.5 (9.9) and - 2.2 (6.2) units, respectively. Changes in SF-36 mental score decreased by 1.0 unit (0.3) monotonically across "none" to "average" to "high" category in a multivariable-adjusted model analysis; the SF-36 physical score decreased by 0.4 (0.2) unit and PHQ-2 increased by 0.1 (0.1). In comparison with participants in the "none", those in the "high" class had 84% (95%CI: 26%-170%) higher odds to report an increment in PHQ-2 values from baseline to re-examination.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic hardship resulting from the Great Recession in late 2000s was associated with deterioration of mental health, as reflected by increased depression symptoms and reduced perceived mental health.

Are Methylation Patterns in the KALRN Gene Associated with Cognitive and Depressive Symptoms? Findings from the Moli-sani Cohort

The KALRN gene (encoding kalirin) has been implicated in several neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders. However, genetic evidence supporting this implication is limited and targeted epigenetic analyses are lacking. Here, we tested associations between epigenetic variation in KALRN and interindividual variation in depressive symptoms (PHQ9) and cognitive (MoCA) performance, in an Italian population cohort (N = 2409; mean (SD) age: 67 (9) years; 55% women). First, we analyzed the candidate region chr3:124584826-124584886 (hg38), within the KALRN promoter, through pyrosequencing of 1385 samples. Then, we widened the investigated region by analyzing 137 CpGs annotated to the whole gene, rescued from epigenome-wide (Illumina EPIC) data from 1024 independent samples from the same cohort. These were tested through stepwise regression models adjusted for age, sex, circulating leukocytes fractions, education, prevalent health conditions and lifestyles. We observed no statistically significant associations with methylation levels in the three CpGs tested through pyrosequencing, or in the gene-wide association analysis with MoCA score. However, we observed a statistically significant association between PHQ9 and cg13549966 (chr3:124106738; β (Standard Error) = 0.28 (0.08), Bonferroni-corrected p = 0.025), located close to the transcription start site of the gene. This association was driven by a polychoric factor tagging somatic depressive symptoms (β (SE) = 0.127 (0.064), p = 0.048). This evidence underscores the importance of studying epigenetic variation within the KALRN gene and the role that it may play in brain diseases, particularly in atypical depression, which is often characterized by somatic symptoms.

Cardiovascular risk in young healthcare professionals: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

In the last years cardiovascular risk has decreased in grown adults and elderly while it seems to be rising among young adults.

OBJECTIVE

to assess the 10-year cardiovascular risk (CVR) in young healthcare professionals at the teaching hospital in Rome, using two scores, and identify possible determinants in order to design and implement preventive strategies.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out between January 2019 and July 2020. Participants underwent medical history collection, physical examination, and blood tests. CVR was calculated using CUORE and Framingham Risk Scores. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted having the scores as dependent variables. Diagnostic tests were used for checking model assumptions.

RESULTS

The study was carried out including 525 participants, 58.5% physicians and 32.1% nurses. Multivariate analysis was carried out only for men, since the pp plot for the whole population and for females for the dependent variables showed some evidence of non-normality, and the residual plot shows variance of the residuals was not constant across the range of fitted values. CVR, using the Framingham equation, directly correlated with age (β = 0.260; p < 0.001). Using the CUORE score, qualification as a physician (p < 0.001) is associated with a lower risk of having a CVR, while age (p < 0.001) is directly proportional to this risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing age consistently emerges as a prominent factor, positively influencing both the Framingham risk score and CUORE score, but this association was found only for men. Being a doctor is a protective factor for the CUORE score.

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions.

CONCLUSION

With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD.

KEY FINDINGS

Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

The Moli-sani risk score, a new algorithm for measuring the global impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is preventable through interventions targeting modifiable factors. Most algorithms based on modifiable CV risk factors (CV-rf) have been developed in US populations and do not account for the role of diet. We aimed to assess an algorithm based on modifiable CV-rf including diet, using data from an Italian population.

METHODS

To derive the Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS), we used data on 16,656 men and women (age ≥ 35 y) from the population of the Moli-sani Study. The Risk-and-Prevention-Study, Italy (N = 8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's-Simple-7 score was used as benchmark. The MRS targeted at fatal or non-fatal CV events and included 9 common modifiable CV-rf.

RESULTS

After 8.1 years (median) of follow-up, 816 events occurred in the derivation cohort. The MRS was calculated as a weighted sum of its 9 components, with weights reflecting the strength of the association. In comparison with individuals in the first, those in the fourth quartile of the score had hazard ratio (HR) for CV events equal to 3.18 (95%CI: 2.54-3.97). One more point in the score was associated with 7% (6%-8%) and 4% (3%-5%) higher hazard of events in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The MRS performed better than the Life's Simple-7 for discrimination.

CONCLUSION

We propose the Moli-sani Risk Score, a validated, performing algorithm able to measure the combined impact that modifiable CV-rf have on CV risk. The score can be used to design preventive interventions, quantify the effectiveness of interventions, and compare different preventive strategies.

Lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease stratified by traditional risk factors: Findings from the cohort of Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk (LTR) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Iranian population, stratified by sex and traditional risk factors including high body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and hypercholesterolemia.

METHODS

We included 10222 (4430 men) participants aged ≥20 years without CVD at baseline. LTRs at index ages 20 and 40 years and number of years lived without CVD was estimated. We further assessed the effect of traditional risk factors on the LTR of CVD and the number of years lived without CVD, stratified by sex and index ages.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 18 years, 1326 participants (774 men) developed CVD and 430 (238 men) died from non-cardiovascular causes. At age 20, the remaining LTR for CVD was 66.7% (95% CI 62.9-70.4) in men and 52.0% (47.6-56.8) in women, with similar LTRs at age 40 for both men and women. The LTRs at both index ages for those with ≥3 risk factors were about 30% and 55% higher in men and women, respectively, than those without any of the five risk factors. At the age of 20, men with ≥3 risk factors lived 24.1 fewer years without CVD compared with men with no risk factors; the corresponding value was 8 years in their female counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that both sexes may benefit from effective prevention strategies early in the life course, despite the observed differences between men and women in LTR for CVD and number of years lived without CVD.

Rationale and design of the CV-PREVITAL study: an Italian multiple cohort randomised controlled trial investigating innovative digital strategies in primary cardiovascular prevention

INTRODUCTION

Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is of key importance in reducing morbidity, disability and mortality worldwide. Observational studies suggest that digital health interventions can be an effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, evidence from large randomised clinical trials is lacking.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The CV-PREVITAL study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label interventional trial designed to compare the effectiveness of an educational and motivational mobile health (mHealth) intervention versus usual care in reducing CV risk. The intervention aims at improving diet, physical activity, sleep quality, psycho-behavioural aspects, as well as promoting smoking cessation and adherence to pharmacological treatment for CV risk factors. The trial aims to enrol approximately 80 000 subjects without overt CVDs referring to general practitioners' offices, community pharmacies or clinics of Scientific Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care (Italian acronym IRCCS) affiliated with the Italian Cardiology Network. All participants are evaluated at baseline and after 12 months to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on short-term endpoints, namely improvement in CV risk score and reduction of major CV risk factors. Beyond the funded life of the study, a long-term (7 years) follow-up is also planned to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on the incidence of major adverse CV events. A series of ancillary studies designed to evaluate the effect of the mHealth intervention on additional risk biomarkers are also performed.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethics approval from the ethics committee of the coordinating centre (Monzino Cardiology Center; R1256/20-CCM 1319) and from all other relevant IRBs and ethics committees. Findings are disseminated through scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals and via social media. Partners are informed about the study's course and findings through regular meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05339841.

Association of nutritional glycaemic indices with global DNA methylation patterns: results from the Moli-sani cohort

BACKGROUND

High dietary glycaemic index (GI) and load (GL) have been associated with increased risk of various cardiometabolic conditions. Among the molecular potential mechanisms underlying this relationship, DNA methylation has been studied, but a direct link between high GI and/or GL of diet and global DNA methylation levels has not been proved yet. We analyzed the associations between GI and GL and global DNA methylation patterns within an Italian population.

RESULTS

Genomic DNA methylation (5mC) and hydroxymethylation (5hmC) levels were measured in 1080 buffy coat samples from participants of the Moli-sani study (mean(SD) = 54.9(11.5) years; 52% women) via ELISA. A 188-item Food Frequency Questionnaire was used to assess food intake and dietary GI and GL for each participant were calculated. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the associations between dietary GI and GL and global 5mC and 5hmC levels, as well as the proportion of effect explained by metabolic and inflammatory markers. We found negative associations of GI with both 5mC (β (SE) = - 0.073 (0.027), p = 0.007) and 5hmC (- 0.084 (0.030), p = 0.006), and of GL with 5mC (- 0.14 (0.060), p = 0.014). Circulating biomarkers did not explain the above-mentioned associations. Gender interaction analyses revealed a significant association of the gender-x-GL interaction with 5mC levels, with men showing an inverse association three times as negative as in women (interaction β (SE) = - 0.16 (0.06), p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation patterns represent a biomarker of carbohydrate intake. Based on the differential association of GL with 5mC between men and women, further gender-based separate approaches are warranted.

Increased Adherence to a Mediterranean Diet Is Associated with Reduced Low-Grade Inflammation after a 12.7-Year Period: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

There is little knowledge on the association of changes over time in adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) with changes in modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and of markers of low-grade inflammation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between long-term changes in MD adherence and concurrent changes in established CVD risk factors and in markers of low-grade inflammation among adult Italians.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study was conducted. Dietary and health data were obtained both at baseline (2005-2010) and at follow-up (2017-2020). Adherence to the MD was estimated by a Mediterranean Diet Score ranging from zero to nine points, and the exposure was change in this score measured after a median 12.7-year period.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

This study included a subgroup of 897 men and 1,126 women aged ≥35 years at enrolment in the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in two composite z scores, including nine established CVD risk factors (eg, serum lipid levels and blood pressure) and four inflammatory markers (including C-reactive protein), respectively, were measured both at enrolment and after the same 12.7-year period.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were used.

RESULTS

In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increased Mediterranean Diet Score over time was associated with decreased levels in the Inflammatory score (β = -0.372, 95% CI -0.720 to -0.025), but had little or no influence on the CVD risk score (β = -0.200, 95% CI -0.752 to 0.351), compared with individuals who had decreased their MD adherence. Among individual food groups/nutrients included in the Mediterranean Diet Score, an increased intake of monounsaturated over saturated fats over time was associated with lower CVD Risk Score, whereas increased consumption of cereals was inversely linked to the Inflammatory Score, compared with the reduced consumption group.

CONCLUSIONS

An increased adherence to a traditional MD over time was associated with reduced low-grade inflammation. These findings suggest the potential of a traditional Mediterranean eating pattern to help reduce the long-term risk of inflammation-related chronic diseases in an ageing population.

Incremental monounsaturated to saturated fat ratio and fibre consumption is associated with a reduction in a composite score of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors: Prospective results from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Unsaturated fats, fibre-rich foods and polyphenols are distinctive features of a traditional Mediterranean diet and have pleiotropic properties possibly contributing to reduce the long-term risk of non-communicable diseases and mortality associated with this diet. We aimed to evaluate whether changes over time in dietary fats, fibre and polyphenols consumption are associated with modifications in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors.

METHODS

The analytic sample consists of a sub-cohort of 2023 men and women enrolled in the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325). Dietary and health data were obtained both at baseline (2005-2010) and at re-examination (2017-2020). The exposures were changes in dietary fats, fibre and polyphenols consumption measured after 12.7 years (median), and the outcome was change in a composite score including 13 modifiable CVD risk factors (e.g., blood lipids, C-reactive protein), measured both at enrolment and after the 12.7 years period.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted analysis including lifestyles, sociodemographic and clinical factors, an incremental intake of the ratio of monounsaturated to saturated fats or of fibre was associated with a reduction in the composite score of CVD risk factors (β = -0.086; 95%CI -0.150, -0.021 and β = -0.051; 95%CI -0.091, -0.012, respectively). Change in polyphenol intake was not associated with a substantial variation in the CVD risk score (p = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

An incremental consumption over time of monounsaturated versus saturated fats and of fibre was associated with an improvement in modifiable CVD risk factors as reflected by a composite score.

Fibrinogen levels in relation to colorectal cancer onset: A nested case-cohort study from the Moli-sani cohort

Background

Patients with cancer are commonly characterized by abnormalities in laboratory coagulation tests, underlying a subclinical hypercoagulable condition. Due to the involvement of the hemostatic system in cancer patients, some of its biomarkers, such as fibrinogen, could be a useful tool in predicting cancer risk. We performed a case-cohort study to evaluate the relationship among fibrinogen levels and colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods

In the framework of Moli-sani Study (N = 24,325, enrolled 2005-2010) a subcohort of 1,290 individuals (55.0% women; mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years) was selected and compared with 126 CRC cases identified during a follow-up of 4.3 years. Incident cases of colorectal cancer were ascertained by direct linkage with hospital discharge forms according to the International Classification of Disease (ICD-9-CM) codes: 153-154. Events were validated through medical records and confirmed by histological reports. Fibrinogen levels were measured in frozen citrated plasma samples. Hazard Ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted by relevant covariates were estimated by a Cox regression model using Prentice method.

Results

Individuals with levels of fibrinogen ≥400 mg/dL had a higher hazard to develop colorectal cancer when compared to those with lower levels after adjustment for sex and age (HR: 1.81; 95% CI 1.12-2.92). Additional adjustment for CRC family history, income, physical activity, diabetes medication and hypercholesterolemia did not modify the result (HR: 1.91; 95% CI 1.15-3.17). Analyses stratified by age and sex showed a most evident association in elderly (HR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.10-4.81) and in women (HR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.08-4.81). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main findings, showing independence from a potential role of confounding by a large panel of biomarkers, including inflammation and hemostasis factors.

Conclusion

Our results, based on a case-cohort study from a general adult population apparently free from any cancer during the recruitment, showed that fibrinogen levels ≥400 mg/dL were positively and independently associated with CRC, suggesting that this glycoprotein could be a potential biomarker for this type of cancer and supporting the "common soil hypothesis" in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular disease and tumors.

Targeting the ASMase/S1P pathway protects from sortilin-evoked vascular damage in hypertension

Sortilin has been positively correlated with vascular disorders in humans. No study has yet evaluated the possible direct effect of sortilin on vascular function. We used pharmacological and genetic approaches coupled with study of murine and human samples to unravel the mechanisms recruited by sortilin in the vascular system. Sortilin induced endothelial dysfunction of mesenteric arteries through NADPH oxidase 2 (NOX2) isoform activation, dysfunction that was prevented by knockdown of acid sphingomyelinase (ASMase) or sphingosine kinase 1. In vivo, recombinant sortilin administration induced arterial hypertension in WT mice. In contrast, genetic deletion of sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor 3 (S1P3) and gp91phox/NOX2 resulted in preservation of endothelial function and blood pressure homeostasis after 14 days of systemic sortilin administration. Translating these research findings into the clinical setting, we detected elevated sortilin levels in hypertensive patients with endothelial dysfunction. Furthermore, in a population-based cohort of 270 subjects, we showed increased plasma ASMase activity and increased plasma levels of sortilin, S1P, and soluble NOX2-derived peptide (sNOX2-dp) in hypertensive subjects, and the increase was more pronounced in hypertensive subjects with uncontrolled blood pressure. Our studies reveal what we believe is a previously unrecognized role of sortilin in the impairment of vascular function and in blood pressure homeostasis and suggest the potential of sortilin and its mediators as biomarkers for the prediction of vascular dysfunction and high blood pressure.

Factors for heterogeneous outcomes of angina and myocardial ischemia without obstructive coronary atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The absence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with angina is common, but its prognosis is debated. We investigated outcomes of such patients to identify predictors of cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We selected 1014 patients with angina, evidence of myocardial ischemia at the electrocardiogram (ECG) exercise test or imaging stress tests, and nonobstructive CAD (absence of lumen diameter reduction ≥50%) at coronary angiography between 1999 and 2015. Note that, 1905 age- and risk factors-matched asymptomatic subjects served as "real-world" comparators. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of all-cause death or myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

At 6-years median follow-up (interquartile range, 3-9 years), the primary endpoint occurred in 53 patients (5.5%, 0.92/100 person-years). Besides similar event rates compared with asymptomatic subjects (hazard ratio [HR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-1.15, p = 0.28), the index population showed a very heterogeneous prognosis. Patients with nonobstructive CAD (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.02-3.37, p = 0.04, compared with "normal" coronary arteries) and ischemia at imaging tests (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.07-4.14, p = 0.03, compared with ischemia detected only at the ECG exercise test) were at higher risk and those with both these components showing even >10-fold event rates as compared with the absence of both. Three-hundred and twenty-five patients (34%) continued to experience angina, 69 (7.2%) underwent repeat coronary angiography, and 14 (1.5%) had consequent coronary revascularization for atherosclerosis progression.

CONCLUSION

Apart from the impaired quality of life, angina without obstructive CAD has an overall benign but very heterogeneous prognosis. Nonobstructive CAD and myocardial ischemia at imaging tests both confer a higher risk.

Correlates of Calcidiol Deficiency in Adults-Cross-Sectional, Observational, Population-Based Study

The prevalence, determinants, and clinical significance of vitamin D deficiency in the population are debated. The population-based study investigated the cross-sectional associations of several variables with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (calcidiol) measured using standardized calibrators. The study cohort consisted of 979 persons of the Moli-sani study, both sexes, ages ≥35 years. The correlates in the analyses were sex, age, education, local solar irradiance in the month preceding the visit, physical activity, anthropometry, diabetes, kidney function, albuminuria, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking, alcohol intake, calorie intake, dietary vitamin D intake, and vitamin D supplement. The serum calcidiol was log transformed for linear regression because it was positively skewed (skewness = 1.16). The prevalence of calcidiol deficiency defined as serum calcidiol ≤12 ng/mL was 24.5%. In multi-variable regression, older age, lower solar irradiance, lower leisure physical activity, higher waist/hip ratio, higher systolic pressure, higher serum cholesterol, smoking, lower alcohol intake, and no vitamin D supplement were independent correlates of lower serum calcidiol (95% confidence interval of standardized regression coefficient ≠ 0) and of calcidiol deficiency (95% confidence interval of odds ratio > 1). The data indicate that low serum calcidiol in the population could reflect not only sun exposure, age, and vitamin D supplementation but also leisure physical activity, abdominal obesity, systolic hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and alcohol intake.

Fine-grained investigation of the relationship between human nutrition and global DNA methylation patterns

PURPOSE

Nutrition is an important, modifiable, environmental factor affecting human health by modulating epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation (5mC). Numerous studies investigated the association of nutrition with global and gene-specific DNA methylation and evidences on animal models highlighted a role in DNA hydroxymethylation (5hmC) regulation. However, a more comprehensive analysis of different layers of nutrition in association with global levels of 5mC and 5hmC is lacking. We investigated the association between global levels of 5mC and 5hmC and human nutrition, through the stratification and analysis of dietary patterns into different nutritional layers: adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD), main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake.

METHODS

ELISA technique was used to measure global 5mC and 5hmC levels in 1080 subjects from the Moli-sani cohort. Food intake during the 12 months before enrolment was assessed using the semi-quantitative EPIC food frequency questionnaire. Complementary approaches involving both classical statistics and supervised machine learning analyses were used to investigate the associations between global 5mC and 5hmC levels and adherence to Mediterranean diet, main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake.

RESULTS

We found that global DNA methylation, but not hydroxymethylation, was associated with daily intake of zinc and vitamin B3. Random Forests algorithms predicting 5mC and 5hmC through intakes of food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients revealed a significant contribution of zinc, while vitamin B3 was reported among the most influential features.

CONCLUSION

We found that nutrition may affect global DNA methylation, suggesting a contribution of micronutrients previously implicated as cofactors in methylation pathways.

Association between body mass index, waist circumference, and relative fat mass with the risk of first unprovoked venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Obesity defined by body mass index (BMI) is independently associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Abdominal obesity, defined by waist circumference, is a predictor of cardiovascular events. Recently, relative fat mass (RFM) was proposed as a marker of cardiovascular risk. We assessed the role of three different measures of obesity to predict unprovoked VTE in a longitudinal study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Moli-sani is a prospective cohort study carried out in the general population of the Molise region, Italy. A total of 23,538 individuals (48% men, age 55.4 years) enrolled between 2005 and 2010 were eligible. Patients on anticoagulant treatment were excluded. BMI ≥30 kg/m² defined obesity, waist circumference >102 cm for men or 88 cm for women defined abdominal obesity, tertiles of RFM were compared. The long-term incidence of first unprovoked VTE during follow-up was assessed. Overall, 29.6% individuals were obese and 44.2% had abdominal obesity. A total of 66 first unprovoked VTE events were diagnosed during a median follow-up of 8.2 years. After multivariable Cox regression analysis, the risk of unprovoked VTE was significantly higher in obese participants (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16-3.07) than in participants with BMI <30; in subjects with abdominal obesity than with normal waist circumference (HR 2.19, 1.26-3.81); and in subjects with third vs first RFM tertile index (HR 2.46, 1.15-5.28). The areas under the curves for the models including the three obesity indexes were comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Three indexes of obesity based on BMI, waist circumference or RFM similarly predict first occurrence of unprovoked VTE.

Circulating Inflammation Markers Partly Explain the Link Between the Dietary Inflammatory Index and Depressive Symptoms

BACKGROUND

Depression is a mood disorder characterized by a high rate of resistance to pharmacological treatments, which has often been linked to chronic inflammation. This can be influenced by different environmental factors, in particular pro-inflammatory diets. However, a mediating role of circulating inflammation has never been observed.

AIM

To test the association between a dietary inflammatory index (DII®) and continuous depressive symptoms (adapted version of PHQ9) in an Italian population cohort (N=13,301), along with potential explanatory effect of a composite index (INFLA-score) based on four circulating inflammatory biomarkers: C-reactive protein, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet and white blood cell counts.

RESULTS

Significant positive associations were observed between DII and total depressive symptoms (standardized β (SE) = 0.038 (0.005), p < 0.001), and with two factors tagging somatic (0.012 (0.003), p < 0.001) and cognitive symptoms (0.012 (0.003), p < 0.001), after adjustment for different potential confounders (socioeconomic status, chronic health conditions and lifestyles). These associations were about twice as strong in women than in men. INFLA-score explained a small but significant proportion of the association with total depressive symptoms (0.90-2.30%, p < 0.05), which was mainly driven by granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (1.18-1.65%). This effect was even stronger for the somatic (2.66-4.66%) but not for the cognitive factor (0%).

CONCLUSION

These findings support a strong link between inflammatory diet and depression, especially with somatic symptoms and within women. Moreover, they provide novel evidence for a potential explanatory role of circulating inflammation in this association, suggesting new paths for prevention and treatment of major and atypical depression.

Exploring domains, clinical implications and environmental associations of a deep learning marker of biological ageing

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have been recently developed for the estimation of Biological Age (BA), the hypothetical underlying age of an organism, which can differ from its chronological age (CA). Although promising, these population-specific algorithms warrant further characterization and validation, since their biological, clinical and environmental correlates remain largely unexplored. Here, an accurate DNN was trained to compute BA based on 36 circulating biomarkers in an Italian population (N = 23,858; age ≥ 35 years; 51.7% women). This estimate was heavily influenced by markers of metabolic, heart, kidney and liver function. The resulting Δage (BA-CA) significantly predicted mortality and hospitalization risk for all and specific causes. Slowed biological aging (Δage < 0) was associated with higher physical and mental wellbeing, healthy lifestyles (e.g. adherence to Mediterranean diet) and higher socioeconomic status (educational attainment, household income and occupational status), while accelerated aging (Δage > 0) was associated with smoking and obesity. Together, lifestyles and socioeconomic variables explained ~48% of the total variance in Δage, potentially suggesting the existence of a genetic basis. These findings validate blood-based biological aging as a marker of public health in adult Italians and provide a robust body of knowledge on its biological architecture, clinical implications and potential environmental influences.

Reduced pulmonary function, low-grade inflammation and increased risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in a general adult population: Prospective results from the Moli-sani study

AIM

to investigate the relation of pulmonary function impairment with mortality and the possible mediation by low-grade inflammation in a general adult population.

METHODS

A prospective investigation was conducted on 14,503 individuals from the Moli-sani study (apparently free from lung disease and acute inflammatory status at baseline; 2005-2010). The 2012 Global Lung Function Initiative percent predicted (% pred) value of forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of FVC (FEF25-75) and FEV1 quotient (FEV1Q) index were used. C-reactive protein and blood cell counts were measured and a score of subclinical inflammation (INFLA-score) was calculated.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 8.6y, 503 deaths (28.9% cardiovascular) were ascertained. Total mortality increased by 19% for each decrease in 1 standard deviation of FEV1% pred or FVC% pred (Hazard Ratio:1.19; 95% CI:1.11-1.28 and 1.19; 1.10-1.28, respectively). Comparable findings for FEV1Q (1.30; 1.15-1.47) were observed. A statistically significant increased risk in cardiovascular mortality of 23%, 32% and 49% was observed for 1 standard deviation decrease of FEV1% pred, FVC% pred and FEV1Q, respectively. INFLA-score mediated the association of FEV1% pred and FEV1Q with cardiovascular mortality by 22.3% and 20.1%, respectively. Subjects with FEV1, FVC lower than normal limit showed increased risk both in total and cardiovascular mortality. Abnormal FEF25-75 values were associated with 33% (1.33; 1.02-1.74) total mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Obstructive lung function impairment was associated with decreased survival. Low-grade inflammation mainly mediated the association of FEV1 with cardiovascular mortality.

Sodium Intake and Proteinuria/Albuminuria in the Population-Observational, Cross-Sectional Study

Sodium effects on proteinuria are debated. This observational, cross-sectional, population-based study investigated relationships to proteinuria and albuminuria of sodium intake assessed as urinary sodium/creatinine ratio (NaCR). In 482 men and 454 women aged 35–94 years from the Moli-sani study, data were collected for the following: urinary NaCR (independent variable); urinary total proteins/creatinine ratio (PCR, mg/g), urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR, mg/g), and urinary non-albumin-proteins/creatinine ratio (calculated as PCR minus ACR) (dependent variables). High values were defined as PCR ≥ 150 mg/g, ACR ≥ 30 mg/g, and urinary non-albumin-proteins/creatinine ratio ≥ 120 mg/g. Urinary variables were measured in first-void morning urine. Skewed variables were log-transformed in analyses. The covariates list included sex, age, energy intake, body mass index, waist/hip ratio, estimated urinary creatinine excretion, smoking, systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease, reported treatment with antihypertensive drug, inhibitor or blocker of the renin-angiotensin system, diuretic, and log-transformed data of total physical activity, leisure physical activity, alcohol intake, and urinary ratios of urea nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus to creatinine. In multivariable linear regression, standardized beta coefficients of urinary NaCR were positive with PCR (women and men = 0.280 and 0.242, 95% confidence interval = 0.17/0.39 and 0.13/0.35, p < 0.001), ACR (0.310 and 0.265, 0.20/0.42 and 0.16/0.38, p < 0.001), and urinary non-albumin-proteins/creatinine ratio (0.247 and 0.209, 0.14/0.36 and 0.09/0.33, p < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression, higher quintile of urinary NaCR associated with odds ratio of 1.81 for high PCR (1.55/2.12, p < 0.001), 0.51 of 1.62 for high ACR (1.35/1.95, p < 0.001), and of 1.84 for high urinary non-albumin proteins/creatinine ratio (1.58/2.16, p < 0.001). Findings were consistent in subgroups. Data indicate independent positive associations of an index of sodium intake with proteinuria and albuminuria in the population.

The CASSIOPEA Study (Economic Crisis and Adherence to the Mediterranean diet: poSSIble impact on biOmarkers of inflammation and metabolic PhEnotypes in the cohort of the Moli-sAni Study): Rationale, design and characteristics of participants

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The CASSIOPEA Study was designed to evaluate whether the economic downturn during the late 2000s was a contributing factor to the observed decrease in adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study protocol consists of two steps: A) recall of 7406 men and women who, between 2005 and 2006, had been randomly recruited in the Moli-sani Study from the general population of Molise, to assess possible economic hardship (EH) related to the economic crisis initiated in 2007; B) re-examination, between 2017 and 2020, of available subjects identified in Step 1 as poorly or harder hit by EH to test the hypothesis that EH is associated with a decrease in MD adherence, possibly resulting in increased inflammation. The results of Step 1 are reported here. From the initial sample of individuals re-examined after 12.6 years (median; IQR = 12.1-13.0 y), 3646 were finally analysed. An Economic Hardship Score (EHS; range 0-14) was obtained by scoring three domains: 1) change in employment status; 2) financial hardship and 3) financial hardship for health expenditures. Overall, 37.8% of the sample reported high EHS (≥3), whilst 32% scored 0 (no EH). Those with high EHS were prevalently women and younger, with low socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

High economic hardship was prevalently reported by weaker socioeconomic groups. Longitudinal analysis (step 2) will examine whether the economic crisis had an effect on adherence to Mediterranean diet with consequent potential impact on inflammation, one of the main biological pathways linking MD to health outcomes. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT03119142.

Egg consumption and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in an Italian adult population

Purpose

Dietary guidelines recommend to limit egg consumption to 4 servings per week but the relation between egg intake and health outcomes is still controversial. To evaluate the association of egg consumption and mortality risk in Italian adults and to investigate nutritional factors and serum lipids as potentially explaining such associations.

Methods

Longitudinal analysis on 20,562 men and women aged ≥ 35y, free from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer belonging to the Moli-sani Study cohort (enrolled 2005–2010) followed up for a median of 8.2 years.

Results

In multivariable-adjusted analysis as compared to low intake (> 0 ≤ 1 egg/week), eating > 4 eggs/week led to an increased risk of all-cause (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.50; 95%CI 1.13–1.99), CVD (HR = 1.75; 1.07–2.87) and cancer mortality (HR = 1.52; 0.99–2.33). Similarly, an intake of 2–4 eggs/week was associated with higher all-cause (HR = 1.22; 1.01–1.46) and CVD mortality risk (HR = 1.43; 1.03–1.97). An increase of 1 egg per week was associated with higher mortality risk among high-risk individuals, such as those with hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Dietary cholesterol explained about 43.0% and 39.3% (p values < 0.0001) of the association of eggs with all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, while serum lipids (e.g., total cholesterol) accounted for a small proportion of egg-mortality relation.

Conclusions

Among Italian adults, high egg consumption leads to an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, with the risk being evident even at the recommended intake of 2–4 eggs per week. A substantial part of this association was likely due to the egg contribution to dietary cholesterol. Our findings suggest limiting the consumption of eggs in the diet and these results should be considered in the development of dietary guidelines and updates.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00394-021-02536-w.

Ultra-processed food consumption is associated with increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

Consumption of ultra-processed food (UPF) is gaining growing attention in relation to disease/mortality risk, but less is known on the main nutritional factors or biological mechanisms potentially underlying such associations.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the association between UPF and mortality risk in a large sample of the Italian adult population and test which nutritional factors were on the pathway of this relation. Established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) were analyzed as potential biological mechanisms linking UPF to mortality.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis was conducted on 22,475 men and women (mean ± SD age: 55 ± 12 y) recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010, Italy) and followed for 8.2 y. Food intake was assessed using a semiquantitative FFQ. UPF was defined using the NOVA classification according to degree of processing, and UPF intakes were categorized as quartiles of the ratio (%) of UPF (g/d) to total food consumed (g/d).

RESULTS

Individuals reporting the highest intake of UPF (Q4, >14.6% of total food), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF < 6.6%), experienced increased risks of CVD mortality (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.03), death from ischemic heart disease (IHD)/cerebrovascular disease (HR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.09), and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.46). High sugar content explained 36.3% of the relation of UPF with IHD/cerebrovascular mortality, whereas other nutritional factors (e.g., saturated fats) were unlikely to be on the pathway. Biomarkers of renal function accounted for 20.1% of the association of UPF with all-cause mortality, and 12.0% for that of UPF with CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of UPF in the diet was associated with increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, partly through its high dietary content of sugar. Some established biomarkers of CVD risk were likely to be on the pathway of such associations. These findings should serve as an incentive for limiting consumption of UPF, and encouraging natural or minimally processed foods, as several national nutritional policies recommend.

Daily Coffee Drinking Is Associated with Lower Risks of Cardiovascular and Total Mortality in a General Italian Population: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

An inverse relationship between coffee intake and mortality has been observed in several population cohorts, but rarely within Mediterranean countries. Moreover, the biological pathways mediating such an association remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the associations between coffee consumption and total and cause-specific mortality and examined the mediating roles of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), high-sensitivity Troponin I, blood glucose, lipid metabolism, and selected biomarkers of inflammation and renal function.

METHODS

We longitudinally analyzed data on 20,487 men and women (35-94 years old at baseline) in the Moli-sani Study, a prospective cohort established in 2005-2010. Individuals were free from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer and were followed-up for a median of 8.3 years. Dietary data were collected by a 188-item semi-quantitative FFQ. Coffee intake was standardized to a 30-mL Italian espresso cup size. HRs with 95% CIs were calculated by multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

In comparison with no/rare coffee consumption (up to 1 cup/d), HRs for all-cause mortality across categories of coffee consumption (>1 to ≤2, >2 to ≤3, >3 to ≤4 and >4 cups/d) were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.65-0.95), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69-1.03), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.92), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.62-1.12), respectively. For CVD mortality, a nonlinear (P for non-linearity = 0.021) J-shaped association was found (magnitude of the relative reduction = 37%; nadir at 3-4 cups/d). Circulating levels of NTproBNP explained up to 26.4% of the association between coffee and all-cause mortality, while systolic blood pressure was likely to be on the pathway between coffee and CVD mortality, although to a lesser extent.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of Italian adults, moderate consumption (3-4 cups/d) of Italian-style coffee was associated with lower risks of all-cause and, specifically, of CVD mortality. Among the known biomarkers investigated here, NTproBNP likely mediates the relationship between coffee intake and all-cause mortality.

Combined influence of depression severity and low-grade inflammation on incident hospitalization and mortality risk in Italian adults

BACKGROUND

Depression and low-grade systemic inflammation are associated risk factors for hospitalizations and mortality, although the nature of this relationship is under-investigated.

METHODS

We performed multivariable Cox regressions of first hospitalization/mortality for all and specific causes vs depression severity, in an Italian population cohort (N=13,176; age≥35 years; 49.4% men), incrementally adjusting for sociodemographic, health and lifestyle factors. We tested potential mediation, additive and interactive effects of INFLA-score, a composite circulating inflammation index, and potential concurrent mediations of main lifestyles and chronic conditions.

RESULTS

Over 4,856 hospitalizations (median follow-up 7.28 years), we observed an increased incident risk of events by 24% (CI=17-32%) and 59% (30-90%) for moderate and severe depression, which also showed a 125% (33-281%) increased risk of all-cause mortality (over 471 deaths, 8.24 years). These remained stable after adjustment for lifestyles, health conditions and INFLA-score, which explained 2.1%, 7.6%, 16.3% and 8%, 14.9% and 12% of depression influence on hospitalizations and mortality risk, respectively. These proportions remained substantially stable after reciprocal adjustments. INFLA-score showed significant additive (but not interactive) effects on both hospitalizations and mortality risk.

LIMITATIONS

Depression severity was defined using a sub-version of Patient Health Questionnaire 9, which was validated here. Directionality links among exposures could not be established since they were collected simultaneously.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest a combined influence of depression and low-grade inflammation on health, which is partly intertwined and dependent on lifestyles and chronic conditions. This suggests the existence of pathways other than inflammation through which depression may play its detrimental effect.

NMU DNA methylation in blood is associated with metabolic and inflammatory indices: results from the Moli-sani study

Neuromedin U (NMU) is a neuropeptide involved in gut-brain axis, energy balance and immune response. We aimed at analysing the association between NMU epigenetic variability and metabolic indices and the potential mediating role of low-grade inflammation in a general population of Italian adults.NMU Blood DNA methylation levels at two CpG islands (NMU76 and NMU32) were analysed using pyrosequencing in a randomly selected sub-cohort of 1,160 subjects from the Moli-sani study (≥35years; 49.20% men). Multivariable regressions adjusted for age, sex, smoking, alcohol and vegetable consumption were performed to estimate the associations between methylation and metabolic phenotypes (BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, glucose, HOMA-IR, lipids, lipoprotein(a) and apolipoproteins). Mediation analysis was performed to identify the influence of low-grade inflammation in the association using a composite index based on C reactive protein, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), platelet and white blood cell counts (INFLA-score).Using principal component analysis four methylation factors were identified: NMU76-F1, NMU76-F2, NMU32-F1 and NMU32-F2. NMU76-F1 was FDR significantly associated with total cholesterol (for 1 SD increase: β = 4.5 ± 1.4 mg/dL of, R² = 10.8%, p = 0.001), ApoB (0.03 ± 0.01 g/L, 12.2%, p = 0.0004), with INFLA-score (1.05 ± 0.22, p = 2.7E-6) and GLR (-0.27 ± 0.03, 30.4%, p = 1.3E-20). GLR and lymphocyte numbers mediate the association of NMU76-F1 with cholesterol (24.0% of total effect, Sobel p = 0.013) and ApoB (42.6%, p = 9E-7), respectively.These findings suggest that NMU promoter methylation patterns could mark a pathway linking lipids with haematopoiesis and systemic inflammation.

Reduced Kidney Function and Relative Hypocalciuria-Observational, Cross-Sectional, Population-Based Data

This observational, cross-sectional, epidemiological analysis investigated relationships of kidney function to urine calcium and other variables. The analyses targeted two population-based samples of adults (Gubbio study and Moli-sani study: n = 3508 and 955, respectively). Kidney function was assessed as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Calcium/creatinine ratio (Ca/Cr) was used as index of urinary calcium in timed overnight urine under fed condition (Gubbio study), morning urine after overnight fast (Gubbio study), and first-void morning urine (Moli-sani study). Moli-sani study included also data for glomerular filtered calcium load, tubular calcium handling, and serum phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, calcium, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D. eGFR positively and independently related to Ca/Cr (p < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, eGFR lower by 10 mL/min × 1.73 m² related to overnight urine Ca/Cr lower by 14.0 mg/g in men and 17.8 mg/g in women, to morning urine Ca/Cr lower by 9.3 mg/g in men and 11.2 mg/g in women, and to first-void urine Ca/Cr lower by 7.7 mg/g in men and 9.6 mg/g in women (p < 0.001). eGFR independently related to glomerular filtered calcium load (p < 0.001) and did not relate to tubular calcium handling (p ≥ 0.35). In reduced eGFR only (<90 mL/min × 1.73 m²), low urine Ca/Cr independently related to low serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (p = 0.002) and did not relate to hyperphosphatemia, high serum parathyroid hormone, or hypocalcemia (p ≥ 0.14). Population-based data indicated consistent associations of lower kidney function with lower urine calcium due to reduction in glomerular filtered calcium. In reduced kidney function, relative hypocalciuria associated with higher prevalence of low serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D.

Tissue Plasminogen Activator Levels and Risk of Breast Cancer in a Case-Cohort Study on Italian Women: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

 Elevated levels of key enzymes of the fibrinolytic system, such as tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), are reported as predictors of poor outcome in cancer patients. Limited information is available about their potential predictive value for breast cancer (BC) risk in the general population.

AIM

 We examined the association of tPA levels with BC risk in a case-cohort study including women from the prospective Moli-sani cohort.

METHODS

 A sample of 710 women (mean age: 54.6 ± 12.1 years) was selected as a subcohort and compared with 84 BC cases, in a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Incident cases of BC were validated through medical records. tPA plasma levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted for relevant covariates, were estimated by a Cox regression model using the Prentice method.

RESULTS

 Compared with the lowest quartile (<4.9 ng/mL), women in the highest quartile of tPA (>11.2 ng/mL) had increased risk of BC (HR_IVvsI: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.13-4.28) after adjusted for age, smoking, education, menopause, and residence. Further adjustment for biochemical markers did not modify this association. The risk of BC increased by 34% for each increase in 1 standard deviation of log-transformed tPA levels (p = 0.046). Elevated levels of tPA were associated mainly with estrogen-receptor-positive BC (2.08, 95% CI: 1.18-3.66).

CONCLUSION

 Higher levels of tPA, reported to predict cardiovascular risk, are a potential biomarker for BC risk, supporting the hypothesis of a "common soil" linking the pathogenic mechanisms of hormone-dependent tumors and cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular risk factors control according to diabetes status and prior cardiovascular events in patients managed in different settings

AIMS

To document in recent cohorts the degree of control of major cardiovascular (CV) risk factors according to diabetes status and prior CV disease in different settings.

METHODS

We studied men and women aged 50-75 years of whom 3028 with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed at diabetes clinics participants of the TOSCA.IT (NCT00700856) study recruited in 2008-2014; 742 with T2DM managed mainly in primary care and 6753 without diabetes participating in the Moli-sani (NCT03242109) study and recruited in 2005-2010 from an adult general population.

RESULTS

Among people without a prior CV event people with diabetes managed at diabetes clinics have lower LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure and a more frequent use of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications as compared to people with diabetes managed mainly in primary care and to people without diabetes. The proportions achieving the recommended treatment targets are respectively 47.4% vs 33.4% vs 29.5% for LDL-cholesterol and 42.6% vs 9.5% vs 47.4% for blood pressure. Figures for the participants with prior CV events were 26.8% vs 15.1% vs 42.5% for LDL-cholesterol and 43.8% vs 8.5% vs 43.6% for blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

The study documents that in modern cohorts a large proportion of people with or without diabetes does not achieve the treatment targets for LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure, both in primary and secondary CV prevention. People with diabetes attending diabetes clinics achieve a better control of major CV risk factors than those managed mainly in primary care, thus highlighting the relevant role of a structured model of care.

A 10- and 15-year performance analysis of ESC/EAS and ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk scores in a Southern European cohort

Background

A key strategy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the use of risk prediction algorithms. We aimed to investigate the predictive ability of SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Estimation) and PCE (Pooled Cohort Equations) systems for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk in Portugal, a low CVD risk country, at the 10-year landmark and at a longer, 15-year follow-up.

Methods

The SCORE and PCE 10-year risk estimates were calculated for 455 and 448 patients, respectively. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell’s C-statistic. Calibration was analyzed by standardized incidence ratios (SIR).

Results

During the 10-year follow-up, 7 fatal ASCVD events (the SCORE outcome) and 32 any ASCVD events (the PCE outcome) occurred. The SCORE system showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.83), while the PCE showed poor discrimination (C-statistic 0.62). Calibration was similar for both systems, according to SIR: SCORE, 0.3 (95% CI 0.1–0.7); PCE, 0.5 (95% CI 0.4–0.7). Globally, both 10-year fatal ASCVD risk and any ASCVD risk were overestimated in the overall population and men. However, the risk was underestimated by both systems in women. Despite an overestimation of 15-year fatal ASCVD by SCORE, the 15-year any ASCVD observed incidence was 1.8 times the 10-year incidence among men and 1.4 times among women. This acceleration of CVD risk was more relevant in the lowest classes of ASCVD risk.

Conclusion

In this prospective, contemporary, Portuguese cohort, the SCORE had better discriminatory power and similar calibration compared to PCE. However, both risk scores underestimated 10-year ASCVD risk in women.

Association of a traditional Mediterranean diet and non-Mediterranean dietary scores with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: prospective findings from the Moli-sani Study

PURPOSE

To evaluate in an Italian general population, the association with mortality of a traditional Mediterranean diet (MD) and non-Mediterranean dietary (non-MD) patterns, and their combined effect, and to test some biomarkers of cardiovascular (CVD) risk as potential mediators of such associations.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis on 22,849 men and women aged ≥ 35 years, recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010), followed up for 8.2 years (median). The MD was assessed by the Mediterranean diet score (MDS). The Dietary  Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), the Palaeolithic diet, and the Nordic diet were chosen as reportedly healthy non-MD patterns. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Participants reaching higher MDS or DASH diet score experienced lower risk of both all-cause (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.66-0.90 and 0.81; 0.69-0.96, respectively, highest vs lowest quartile) and CVD (0.77; 0.59-1.00 and 0.81; 0.69-0.96, respectively) death risk; risk reduction associated with the Palaeolithic diet was limited to total and other cause death, whereas the Nordic diet did not alter risk of mortality. Increasing adherence to MD was associated with higher survival in each stratum of non-MD diets. Biomarkers of glucose metabolism accounted for 7% and 21.6% of the association between either MDS or DASH diet, respectively, with total mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the traditional MD and DASH diet may reduce risk of all-cause mortality among Italians, as well as risk of dying from cardiovascular causes. The Palaeolithic diet did not appear to reduce cardiovascular risk, while the Nordic eating pattern was unlikely to be associated with any substantial health advantage.

Vitamin D Status and Indices of Mineral Homeostasis in the Population: Differences Between 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and 1,25-Dihydroxyvitamin D

Opinions are conflicting about the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. This population-based study investigated cross-sectionally the associations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (calcidiol) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (calcitriol) with indices of mineral homeostasis. Study cohort consisted of 979 persons of the Moli-Sani study, both sexes, ages ≥35 years. Data collection included serum calcidiol by different assays, serum calcitriol, serum parathyroid hormone, serum and urine calcium, and phosphorus. Prevalence of mild-to-moderate calcidiol deficiency (10–19 ng/mL) was 36.4% and did not associate with hypocalcemia or hyperparathyroidism. Prevalence of severe calcidiol deficiency (<10 ng/mL) was 16.8% and associated with hyperparathyroidism only (odds ratio = 8.81, 95% confidence interval = 2.4/32.9). Prevalence of calcitriol deficiency (<18 pg/mL) was 3.1% and associated with hypocalcemia (29.1, 7.4/114.5) but not hyperparathyroidism. In ANOVA along concentration strata, lower calcidiol associated with higher parathyroid hormone only (p < 0.001). Lower calcitriol associated with lower serum and urine calcium (p < 0.001) but not with parathyroid hormone. Calcidiol findings were consistent with different calcidiol assays. In the population, mild-to-moderate calcidiol deficiency did not associate with abnormal mineral homeostasis. Severe calcidiol deficiency and calcitriol deficiency associated with different disorders: lower calcidiol associated with hyperparathyroidism whereas lower calcitriol associated with hypocalcemia and low urine calcium.

Impact of combined healthy lifestyle factors on survival in an adult general population and in high-risk groups: prospective results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

There is poor knowledge on the association between combined lifestyles with mortality risk among individuals at high risk, and little is known on the biological mechanisms that could be on the pathway.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis on 22 839 individuals from the Moli-sani Study (Italy, 2005-2010). Among them, we identified 5200 elderly individuals (≥65 year), 2127 subjects with diabetes and 1180 with cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. A healthy lifestyle score (HLS) was calculated, allocating 1 point for each of the following: abstention from smoking; adherence to Mediterranean diet; physical activity; absence of abdominal obesity. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression and competing risk models.

RESULTS

During 8.2 years of follow-up, 1237 deaths occurred. In the general population, adherence to all four healthy lifestyles, compared with none or 1, was associated with lower risk of all-cause (HR = 0.53; 95%CI:0.39-0.72), CVD (HR = 0.54; 0.32-0.91), cancer (HR = 0.62; 0.39-1.00) and mortality from other causes (HR = 0.39; 0.19-0.81). A 1-point increase in HLS was associated with 20%, 22% and 24% lower risk of total mortality among the elderly, in subjects with diabetes or CVD, respectively. Traditional (e.g. blood lipids), inflammatory (e.g. C-reactive protein) and novel biomarkers (e.g. markers of cardiac damage) accounted for up to 24% of the association of HLS with all-cause mortality risk in the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of combined four healthy lifestyles on survival was considerable, both in the general population and among high-risk subgroups. Inflammatory and novel biomarkers of CVD risk explained a substantial proportion of this association.

Homocysteine and education but not lipoprotein (a) predict estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in blood donors: a community based cross-sectional study

Background

With aging of the population, screening and prevention health programs for blood donors will increasingly be a priority. We aimed at: assessing the 10 year-cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in blood donors, according to Italian CUORE risk score (CRS); determining the association of homocysteine (Hcy), lipoprotein (Lp)(a) and socio-demographic or lifestyle variables with estimated 10-year CVD risk.

Methods

Between June 2015 and July 2017, 1,447 (61.2% men) unselected blood donors (aged 18–69 years) were enrolled at the Blood Transfusion Service of the Pescara General Hospital, Italy. The project entailed evaluation of unalterable (age and gender) and modifiable CV risk factors (total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, triglycerides, fasting glucose, smoking, hypertension). The educational attainment, socio-demographic and lifestyle behavior information were obtained through a structured self-report questionnaire, and Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) through the Short Form Survey (SF-12). Plasma Hcy and Lp(a) were determined in the fasting state.

Results

A CRS within the moderate-high risk range was reported in 21.7% donors. Multivariate logistic regression, after adjustment for clinical and demographic variables, showed that Hcy [OR (95% CI): 1.09 (1.04–1.13); p < 0.001) and low educational attainment [1.71 (1.09–2.73); p = 0.019] are independent risk factors for moderate-to-high CVD risk. Instead, Lp(a), evaluated in 774 donors, was > 30 mg/dL in 22.4% of the examined population, but without any significant correlation with CRS.

Conclusions

Our study highlights a previously unappreciated need for CV risk assessment in blood donors, which may include evaluation of educational attainment as a non-traditional risk marker.

Alcohol consumption and hospitalization burden in an adult Italian population: prospective results from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Epidemiological evidence on the impact of different alcohol drinking patterns on health-care systems or hospitalizations is sparse. We investigated how the different average volumes of alcohol consumed relate to all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study (baseline 2005-10) linked to a registry of hospital discharge records to identify hospitalizations at follow-up (December 2013).

SETTING

Molise region, Italy.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 20 682 individuals (48% men, age ≥ 35 years) who participated in the Moli-sani Study and were free from cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

The alcohol volume consumed in the year before enrolment was classified as: life-time abstainers, former drinkers, occasional drinkers and current drinkers who drank 1-12 (referent), 12.1-24, 24.1-48 and > 48 g/day of alcohol. Cause-specific hospitalizations were assigned by Italian Diagnosis Related Groups classification or by ICD-9 code of main admission diagnoses. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) of hospitalization were estimated by Poisson regression, taking into account the total number of admissions that occurred during the follow-up per person.

FINDINGS

During a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 12 996 multiple hospital admissions occurred. In multivariable analyses, life-time abstainers and former drinkers had higher rates of all-cause [IRR = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.17 and IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.02-1.31, respectively] and vascular (IRR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02-1.27 and IRR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.24-1.76, respectively) hospitalizations compared with light alcohol consumers. Alcohol consumption > 48 g/day was associated with a higher rate of hospitalization for both alcohol-related diseases (IRR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.32-2.29) and cancer (IRR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.12-1.65). The magnitude of the association between heavier alcohol intake and hospitalization tended to be greater in smokers than non-smokers. No associations were observed with hospitalization for trauma or neurodegenerative diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate alcohol consumption appears to have a modest but complex impact on global hospitalization burden. Heavier drinkers have a higher rate of hospitalization for all causes, including alcohol-related diseases and cancer, a risk that appears to be further magnified by concurrent smoking.

Socioeconomic trajectories across the life course and risk of total and cause-specific mortality: prospective findings from the Moli-sani Study

Background

A life course approach has been suggested as the most appropriate to establish the total impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on adult health outcomes; however, such an approach has been poorly used within Mediterranean populations. We aimed to examine the SES trajectories from childhood to adulthood associated with mortality risk in a large general population-based cohort and to test potential pathways (eg, inflammation) underlying such associations.

Methods

Longitudinal analyses on 22 194 subjects recruited in the Moli-sani Study, Italy (2005–2010). Low and high SES in childhood, educational attainment (low/high) and SES during adulthood (measured by a score including material resources and dichotomised as low/high) were used to define overall trajectories.

Results

Over 8.3 years of follow-up, 1155 deaths occurred. In the group with poor childhood SES, an upward trajectory in both educational and material circumstances was associated with lower risk of all-cause death (HR=0.64; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.87), as opposed to subjects who remained stably low (low education and adulthood SES). Subjects with high childhood SES, but not educational achievement, were at increased risk of total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death, although reporting higher material SES in adult life, as compared with the stably high SES group (HR=1.44; 1.02 to 2.02 and HR=1.90; 1.10 to 3.28, respectively). Inflammatory markers marginally accounted for such associations.

Conclusion

For individuals with low SES in early life, an educational and material upward trajectory over the life course was associated with lower mortality risk. In the high SES childhood group, lack of a higher educational attainment appeared to be unfavourably associated with survival.

Secular and longitudinal trends in cardiovascular risk in a general population using a national risk model: The Tromsø Study

Background

Primary prevention guidelines promote the use of risk assessment tools to estimate total cardiovascular risk. We aimed to study trends in cardiovascular risk and contribution of single risk factors, using the newly developed NORRISK 2 risk score, which estimates 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events.

Design

Prospective population-based study.

Methods

We included women and men aged 45–74 years attending the sixth and seventh survey of the Tromsø Study (Tromsø 6, 2007–2008, n = 7284 and Tromsø 7, 2015–2016, n = 14,858) to study secular trends in NORRISK 2 score. To study longitudinal trends, we followed participants born 1941–1962 attending both surveys ( n = 4534). We calculated NORRISK 2 score and used linear regression models to study the relative contribution (% R2) of each single risk factor to the total score.

Results

Mean NORRISK 2 score decreased and distribution in risk categories moved from higher to lower risk in both sexes and all age-groups between the first and second surveys ( p < 0.001). In birth cohorts, when age was set to baseline in NORRISK 2 calculations, risk score decreased during follow-up. Main contributors to NORRISK 2 were systolic blood pressure, smoking and total cholesterol, with some sex, age and birth cohort differences.

Conclusion

We found significant favourable secular and longitudinal trends in total cardiovascular risk and single risk factors during the last decade. Change in systolic blood pressure, smoking and cholesterol were the main contributors to risk score change; however, the impact of single risk factors on the total score differed by sex, age and birth cohort.

Long-term incidence and risk factors of cardiovascular events in Asian populations: systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Scientific studies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and risk factors are predominantly based on short-term risk in Westerner populations, and such information may not be applicable to Asian populations, especially over the longer term. This review aims to estimate the long-term (>10 years) CVD burden, including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, as well as associated risk factors in Asian populations.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase and Web of Science were systematically searched, and hits screened on: Asian adults, free of CVD at baseline; cohort study design (follow-up >10 years). Primary outcomes were fatal and non-fatal CVD events. Pooled estimates and between-study heterogeneity were calculated using random effects models, Q and I² statistics.

RESULTS

Overall, 32 studies were eligible for inclusion (follow-up: 11-29 years). The average long-term rate of fatal CVD is 3.68 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 2.84-4.53), the long-term cumulative risk 6.35% (95% CI 4.69%-8.01%, mean 20.13 years) and the cumulative fatal stroke/CHD risk ratio 1.5:1. Important risk factors for long-term fatal CVD (RR, 95% CI) were male gender (1.49, 1.36-1.64), age over 60/65 years (7.55, 5.59-10.19) and current smoking (1.68, 1.26-2.24). High non-HDL-c, and β- and γ-tocopherol serum were associated only with CHD (HR 2.46 [95% CI 1.29-4.71] and 2.47 [1.10-5.61] respectively), while stage 1 and 2 hypertensions were associated only with fatal stroke (2.02 [1.19-3.44] and 2.89 [1.68-4.96] respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 10 year + follow-up period Asian subjects had a higher risk of stroke than CHD. Contrary to CVD prevention in Western countries, strategies should also consider stroke instead of CHD only.

Interaction between Mediterranean diet and statins on mortality risk in patients with cardiovascular disease: Findings from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

Statins are prescribed for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), along with the recommendation of adopting healthy diets. We evaluated the independent and the combined effect of statins and Mediterranean diet (MD) towards mortality risk in patients with previous CVD by using real-life data from a population-based prospective cohort.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis on 1180 subjects (mean age 67.7 ± 10) with prior CVD at enrollment in the Moli-sani Study and followed up for 7.9 y (median). Adherence to MD was appraised by a Mediterranean diet score. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression and competing risk models.

RESULTS

Multivariable risk estimates associated with a 2-point increase in MD score were 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-1.00), 0.77 (0.61-0.97) and 0.70 (0.52-0.93) for overall, cardiovascular and coronary artery disease (CAD)/cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. Statins were not associated with death risk. Subjects combining statins and average-high adherence to MD had much lower than expected risk of cardiovascular and CAD/cerebrovascular mortality (p for interaction = 0.045 and 0.0015, respectively) as compared to those neither using statins nor having average-high MD. The combination of average-high MD and statins was associated in a likely synergistic way with reduced low-grade inflammation, but not with blood cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

MD lowered the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and CAD/cerebrovascular mortality CVD patients, net of statins. In the same population, statins reduced CVD death risk only in combination with MD. Low-grade inflammation, rather than lipids, is likely to be on the pathway of the interaction between MD and statins towards mortality risk.

Cardiovascular risk profile in Olympic athletes: an unexpected and underestimated risk scenario

Background

Prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors has been poorly explored in subjects regularly engaged in high-intensity exercise programmes. Our aim was, therefore, to assess the prevalence and distribution of CV risk factors in a large population of competitive athletes, to derive the characteristics of athlete’s lifestyle associated with the best CV profile.

Methods

1058 Olympic athletes (656 males, 402 females), consecutively evaluated in the period 2014–2016, represent the study population. Prevalence and distribution of CV risk factors was assessed, in relation to age, body size and sport.

Findings

Dyslipidemia was the most common risk (32%), followed by increased waist circumference (25%), positive family history (18%), smoking habit (8%), hypertension (3.8%) and hyperglycaemia (0.3%). Large subset of athletes (418, 40%) had none or 1 (414, 39%) risk factor, while only a few (39, 3.7%) had 3/4 CV risk factors. The group without risks largely comprised endurance athletes (34%). Ageing was associated with higher total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides (p<0.001) and glycaemia (p=0.002) and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, BMI and body fat were identified as independent predictors of increased CV risk.

Interpretation

Dyslipidemia and increased waist circumference are common in elite athletes (32% and 25%, respectively). A large proportion (40%) of athletes, mostly endurance, are totally free from risk factors. Only a minority (3%) presents a high CV risk, largely expression of lifestyle and related to modifiable CV risk factors.

Mediterranean diet and mortality in the elderly: a prospective cohort study and a meta-analysis

The Mediterranean diet (MD) has been associated with prolonged survival in the general population, but no meta-analysis has apparently investigated the potential health benefits in relation to mortality in the elderly. We performed a longitudinal analysis on 5200 individuals aged ≥65 years identified within the general population recruited in the Moli-sani study cohort (2005–2010). Adherence to the MD was appraised by the a priori Mediterranean diet score (MDS; range 0–9). Survival estimates were derived using Cox regression and competing risk models. For the meta-analysis, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched from inception until April 2018 to identify prospective studies on the MD and death risk in the elderly. Over a median follow-up of 8·1 years, a total of 900 deaths were ascertained in the elderly sub-sample of the Moli-sani cohort. A one-point increase in the MDS was associated with lower risk of all-cause, coronary artery disease/cerebrovascular and non-cardiovascular/non-cancer mortality (multi-variable hazard ratio (HR)=0·94; 95 % CI 0·90, 0·98; HR=0·91; 95 % CI 0·83, 0·99 and HR=0·89; 95 % CI 0·81, 0·96, respectively). In a meta-analysis of seven prospective studies, including our results, for a total of 11 738 participants and 3874 deaths, one-point increment in MDS was associated with 5 % (4–7 %) lower risk of all-cause death. An inverse linear dose–response relationship was found from a meta-analysis including three studies. In conclusion, a prospective cohort study and a meta-analysis showed that closer adherence to the MD was associated with prolonged survival in elderly individuals, suggesting the appropriateness for older persons to adopt/preserve the MD to maximise their prospects for survival.

High adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with cardiovascular protection in higher but not in lower socioeconomic groups: prospective findings from the Moli-sani study

Background

It is uncertain whether the cardiovascular benefits associated with Mediterranean diet (MD) may differ across socioeconomic groups.

Methods

Prospective analysis on 18991 men and women aged ≥35 years from the general population of the Moli-sani cohort (Italy). Adherence to MD was appraised by the Mediterranean diet score (MDS). Household income (euros/year) and educational level were used as indicators of socioeconomic status. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by multivariable Cox proportional hazard models.

Results

Over 4.3 years of follow-up, 252 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events occurred. Overall, a two-point increase in MDS was associated with 15% reduced CVD risk (95% confidence interval: 1% to 27%). Such association was evident in highly (HR = 0.43; 0.25-0.72) but not in less (HR = 0.94; 0.78-1.14) educated subjects (P for interaction = 0.042). Similarly, CVD advantages associated with the MD were confined to the high household income group (HR = 0.39; 0.23-0.66, and HR = 1.01; 0.79-1.29 for high- and low-income groups, respectively; P for interaction = 0.0098). In a subgroup of individuals of different socioeconomic status but sharing similar MDS, diet-related disparities were found as different intakes of antioxidants and polyphenols, fatty acids, micronutrients, dietary antioxidant capacity, dietary diversity, organic vegetables and whole grain bread consumption.

Conclusions

MD is associated with lower CVD risk but this relationship is confined to higher socioeconomic groups. In groups sharing similar scores of adherence to MD, diet-related disparities across socioeconomic groups persisted. These nutritional gaps may reasonably explain at least in part the socioeconomic pattern of CVD protection from the MD.

Alcohol intake and the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage in the elderly: The MUCH-Italy

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the role of alcohol as a causal factor for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and whether its effects might vary according to the pathogenic mechanisms underlying cerebral bleeding.

METHODS

We performed a case-control analysis, comparing a cohort of consecutive white patients with ICH aged 55 years and older with a group of age- and sex-matched stroke-free controls, enrolled in the setting of the Multicenter Study on Cerebral Haemorrhage in Italy (MUCH-Italy) between 2002 and 2014. Participants were dichotomized into excessive drinkers (>45 g of alcohol) and light to moderate drinkers or nondrinkers. To isolate the unconfounded effect of alcohol on ICH, we used causal directed acyclic graphs and the back-door criterion to select a minimal sufficient adjustment set(s) of variables for multivariable analyses. Analyses were performed on the whole group as well as separately for lobar and deep ICH.

RESULTS

We analyzed 3,173 patients (1,471 lobar ICH and 1,702 deep ICH) and 3,155 controls. After adjusting for the preselected variables in the minimal sufficient adjustments, heavy alcohol intake was associated with deep ICH risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36-2.09) as well as with the overall risk of ICH (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.17-1.63), whereas no effect was found for lobar ICH (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.77-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

In white people aged 55 years and older, high alcohol intake might exert a causal effect on ICH, with a prominent role in the vascular pathologies underlying deep ICH.

The effect of a new lifetime-cardiovascular-risk display on patients' motivation to participate in shared decision-making

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the effects of three different risk displays used in a cardiovascular risk calculator on patients' motivation for shared decision-making (SDM). We compared a newly developed time-to-event (TTE) display with two established absolute risk displays (i.e. emoticons and bar charts). The accessibility, that is, how understandable, helpful, and trustworthy patients found each display, was also investigated.

METHODS

We analysed a sample of 353 patients recruited in general practices. After giving consent, patients were introduced to one of three fictional vignettes with low, medium or high cardiovascular risk. All three risk displays were shown in a randomized order. Patients were asked to rate each display with regard to motivation for SDM and accessibility. Two-factorial repeated measures analyses of variance were conducted to compare the displays and investigate possible interactions with age.

RESULTS

Regarding motivation for SDM, the TTE elicited the highest motivation, followed by the emoticons and bar chart (p < .001). The displays had no differential influence on the age groups (p = .445). While the TTE was generally rated more accessible than the emoticons and bar chart (p < .001), the emoticons were only superior to the bar chart in the younger subsample. However, this was only to a small effect (interaction between display and age, p < .01, η 2  = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

Using fictional case vignettes, the novel TTE display was superior regarding motivation for SDM and accessibility when compared to established displays using emoticons and a bar chart. If future research can replicate these results in real-life consultations, the TTE display will be a valuable addition to current risk calculators and decision aids by improving patients' participation.

Association of proinflammatory diet with low-grade inflammation: results from the Moli-sani study

OBJECTIVES

The association between diet and inflammation is well documented. Yet, no evidence exists on the relationship between the inflammatory potential of the diet and low-grade inflammation (LGI) as measured by a composite score of plasma and cellular biomarkers. The aim of this study was to assess the association between the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII^®) and LGI in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses were conducted on data from 20 823 adults (age ≥35 y; 48% male) without acute inflammation, who were recruited within the general population of the Moli-sani study from 2005 to 2010. LGI was measured by using a composite score (INFLA-score) including platelet and leukocyte counts, the granulocyte to lymphocyte ratio, and C-reactive protein. DII scores were computed based on dietary intake assessed by the EPIC food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression models were fit to produce adjusted regression coefficients and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Higher DII scores were associated with increased LGI (β = 0.131; 95% CI, 0.089-0.174 for the highest versus lowest quintile of DII) after adjusting for age, sex, lifestyle, prevalence of chronic diseases, and health conditions. A higher DII score also was positively associated with each single biomarker of inflammation included in the INFLA-score, unhealthy behaviors (smoking, sedentary lifestyle), and insulin.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher DII scores, indicating greater inflammatory potential of the diet, were directly associated with LGI, as measured by a composite score of plasma and cellular biomarkers of inflammation. These findings are consistent with the contributing role of diet-mediated inflammation in increasing risk for inflammation-related chronic diseases.

Serum vitamin D deficiency and risk of hospitalization for heart failure: Prospective results from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Evidence indicates that Vitamin D deficiency may be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, although findings on risk of heart failure (HF) are controversial. We investigated the relationship between serum Vitamin D and the incidence of hospitalization for HF in a large prospective cohort of Italian adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

19,092 (49% men, age range 35-99 years) HF-free individuals from the Moli-sani study, with complete data on serum Vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin) levels and incident hospitalized HF, were analysed. The cohort was followed up for a median of 6.2 years. Baseline serum Vitamin D levels were categorized in deficient (<10 ng/mL), insufficient (10-29 ng/mL), and normal (≥30 ng/mL) Incident cases of hospitalization for HF were identified by linkage with the regional hospital discharge registry. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox-proportional hazard models. The prevalence of normal, insufficient or deficient levels of Vitamin D was 12.2%, 79.6% and 8.2%, respectively. During follow-up, 562 admissions to hospital for HF were identified. The incidence of HF was 1.6%, 2.9% and 5.3%, respectively in subjects with normal, insufficient and deficient levels of Vitamin D. After multivariable analysis, individuals with deficiency of Vitamin D had a higher risk of hospitalization for HF (HR: 1.61, 95%CI: 1.06-2.43) than those with normal levels. Further adjustment for subclinical inflammation did not substantially change the association between Vitamin D deficiency and HF.

CONCLUSION

Deficiency of Vitamin D was associated, independently of known HF risk factors, with an increased risk of hospitalization for HF in an Italian adult population.

Age- and sex-based ranges of platelet count and cause-specific mortality risk in an adult general population: prospective findings from the Moli-sani study

Platelet count varies by age, sex and ethnicity. However, previous studies have adopted standard ranges to identify subjects with thrombocytopenia or thrombocytosis. The aim of this study was to test the predictive role of age-sex-based cut-offs of platelet count proposed by an Italian collaborative study, towards the risk of cause-specific death. We conducted a prospective analysis on 21,563 adult subjects (mean age 55.6 ± 11.8) randomised from the general population of the Moli-sani study. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models with 95% confidence intervals. Over a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range: 7.3 to 9.2 years; 175,972 person-years), we ascertained and validated 1,130 deaths, 415 of which are from cardiovascular disease, 439 from cancer and 276 from non-vascular/non-cancer causes. As opposed to the normal ranges defined by age and sex (extreme values from 122 to 405 x10⁹/L), lower platelet number (87.7% of values being higher than 100x10⁹/L) was associated with increased risk of total (HR = 1.92; 95%CI 1.38-2.67), cancer (HR = 1.77; 95%CI 1.03-3.05), and non-cardiovascular/non-cancer mortality (HR = 3.16; 95%CI 1.84-5.42) but was unrelated to cardiovascular mortality. Higher platelet count was not associated with any death risk. In conclusion, age-sex-based low platelet count, well above the traditional lower normal range of <100 x10⁹/L, is associated with increased total and specific mortality risk in a general population.

Health-related quality of life and risk of composite coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular events in the Moli-sani study cohort

Background To assess the association between health-related quality of life (HRQL) and a composite outcome including incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular events in a large general population-based cohort. Design Prospective analysis on 17,102 men and women (mean age 53 ± 11) free from cardiovascular disease at time of enrolment in the Moli-sani cohort (2005-2010). Methods HRQL was assessed by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models. Results At the end of follow-up (median 4.2 years), 237 new events occurred (coronary heart disease n = 197, cerebrovascular disease n = 42). In a multivariable model adjusted for socioeconomic factors, chronic disease and health-related behaviours, both mental and physical HRQL were inversely associated with the risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio = 0.57; 0.39-0.84 and hazard ratio = 0.62; 0.40-0.94, respectively; highest vs. lowest quartile). Further adjustment for C-reactive protein marginally modified the association with physical HRQL (hazard ratio = 0.67; 0.43-1.02). Similar findings were obtained when only CHD events were analysed (hazard ratio = 0.63; 0.41-0.96 for highest versus lowest mental HRQL) although results with physical HRQL were no longer significant (hazard ratio = 0.65; 0.40-1.04 for highest versus lowest quartile). Associations with incident cerebrovascular disease showed a trend toward protection (hazard ratio = 0.50; 0.22-1.17 and hazard ratio = 0.51; 0.22-1.23 for highest versus lowest tertile of mental and physical HRQL, respectively). Conclusions HRQL is an independent predictor of composite CHD/cerebrovascular outcomes in an adult population. The magnitude of the association was not affected either by socioeconomic factors, health conditions or health-related behaviours. Improvement of quality of life may be a major factor in targeting appropriate prevention strategies for cardiovascular health.

Mean platelet volume is associated with lower risk of overall and non-vascular mortality in a general population

Larger mean platelet volume (MPV) has been associated with adverse health outcomes in high-risk populations or patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We tested the association of MPV with mortality in a prospective cohort study including 17,402 subjects randomly recruited from an adult general population within the Moli-sani study (2005–2010). Two distinct subgroups (with or without CVD at baseline) were subsequently analysed. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models. Over a median follow up of eight years (137,547 person-years), 925 all-cause deaths occurred (330 vascular, 351 cancer and 244 other deaths). In a multivariable model, the highest MPV quintile (mean MPV=10.0 fL), as compared to the lowest one, was associated with reduced risk of overall mortality (HR=0.79; 95 % confidence interval 0.64–0.98), cancer death (HR=0.70; 0.49–1.00) and death from other non- vascular/non cancer causes (HR=0.55; 0.36–0.84) but not with vascular mortality. The inverse association with overall death appeared even stronger in the subgroup without CVD at baseline (HR=0.64; 0.50–0.81). In contrast, within 920 subjects reporting a previous CVD event, larger MPV was associated with higher risk of total mortality (HR=1.69; 1.05–2.72; p for interaction=0.048) and with a trend of risk for other cause-specific deaths. In conclusion, larger MPV is associated with lower risk of overall and non-vascular death in subjects apparently free from CVD, but appears to be a predictive marker of death in patients with CVD history. The latter is a likely effect modifier of the association between MPV and death.