The effects of transitions in metabolic health and obesity status on incident cardiovascular disease: Insights from a general Chinese population

Association between metabolic phenotypes of overweight/obesity and cardiovascular diseases in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Obesity and metabolic abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. However, it is unclear how metabolic weight phenotypes relate to cardiovascular diseases in postmenopausal women. This study aimed to explore the relationships in postmenopausal women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 15,575 postmenopausal women aged 35-75 years (median age, 60.6) without cardiovascular disease at baseline from a subcohort of the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project. Metabolically unhealthy phenotype was defined as having ≥2 risk factors of metabolic syndrome: blood pressure ≥130/85 mm Hg or current use of antihypertensive drugs, fasting glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L or current use of antidiabetic agents, triglycerides ≥1.7 mmol/L, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <1.3 mmol/L. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the risks of cardiovascular diseases. Over a median follow-up period of 3.55 (interquartile range, 2.59-4.44) years, a total of 1354 cardiovascular events occurred. Compared to metabolically healthy normal weight, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were 1.41 (1.16-1.72) for metabolically unhealthy normal weight, 1.42 (1.16-1.73) for metabolically healthy overweight/obesity, and 1.75 (1.48-2.08) for metabolically unhealthy overweight/obesity. Subdividing overweight/obesity into separate groups revealed higher total cardiovascular disease risk only in metabolically unhealthy individuals across body mass index categories.

CONCLUSION

In postmenopausal women, both metabolically healthy overweight/obesity and metabolically unhealthy normal weight were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease compared to metabolically healthy normal weight, and the greatest risk was observed in the metabolically unhealthy overweight/obesity category.

Metabolic obesity phenotypes and all-cause mortality among the Chinese oldest-old population: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The obesity paradox has been reported among older adults. However, whether the favorable effect of obesity is dependent on metabolic status remains largely unknown. We aimed to explore the association of metabolic obesity phenotypes and their changes with all-cause mortality among the Chinese oldest-old population.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 1207 Chinese oldest old (mean age: 91.8 years). Metabolic obesity phenotypes were determined by central obesity and metabolic status, and participants were classified into metabolically healthy obesity (MHO), metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO), metabolically healthy non-obesity (MHN), and metabolically unhealthy non-obesity (MUN). The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated by Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During 5.3 years of follow-up, 640 deaths were documented. Compared with non-obesity, obesity was associated with a decreased mortality risk among participants with metabolically healthy (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91) while this association was insignificant among metabolically unhealthy. Compared to MHO, MHN (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.06-1.53) and MUN (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.10-2.02) were significantly associated with an increased mortality risk. Compared to those with stable MHO, those transited from MHO to MUO demonstrated a higher mortality risk (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.06-3.11).

CONCLUSIONS

MHO predicts better survival among the Chinese oldest-old population. These findings suggest that ensuring optimal management of metabolic health is beneficial and taking caution in weight loss based on the individual body weight for the metabolically healthy oldest-old adults.

Increased Risk of Cardiometabolic Disease in Ideal Weight Adults With History of Overweight/Obesity in China: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Overweight and obesity represent critical modifiable determinants in the prevention of cardiometabolic disease (CMD). However, the long-term impact of prior overweight/obesity on the risk of CMD in later life remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between longitudinal transition of body mass index (BMI) status and incident CMD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective cohort study included 57 493 CMD-free Chinese adults from the Kailuan Study. BMI change patterns were categorized according to the BMI measurements obtained during the 2006 and 2012 surveys. The primary end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. Cox regression models were used to evaluate the associations of transitions in BMI with overall CMD events and subtypes, with covariates selected on the basis of the directed acyclic graph. During a median follow-up of 7.62 years, 8412 participants developed CMD. After considering potential confounders, weight gain pattern (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.23-1.46]), stable overweight/obesity (HR, 2.12 [95% CI, 2.00-2.24]), and past overweight/obesity (HR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.59-1.89]) were associated with the incidence of CMD. Similar results were observed in cardiometabolic multimorbidity, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. Additionally, triglyceride and systolic blood pressure explained 8.05% (95% CI, 5.87-10.22) and 12.10% (95% CI, 9.19-15.02) of the association between past overweight/obesity and incident CMD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of overweight/obesity was associated with an increased risk of CMD, even in the absence of current BMI abnormalities. These findings emphasize the necessity for future public health guidelines to include preventive interventions for CMD in individuals with past overweight/obesity.

Association of metabolic health and obesity with coronary heart disease in adult cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

The metabolically healthy obese (MHO) phenotype is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. However, association of metabolic health and obesity phenotypes with CHD risk in adult cancer survivors remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the associations between different metabolic health and obesity phenotypes with incident CHD in adult cancer survivors.

METHODS

We used National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) to identify a cohort of 173,951 adult cancer survivors aged more than 20 years free of cardiovascular complications. Metabolically healthy nonobese (MHN), MHO, metabolically unhealthy nonobese (MUN), metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotypes were created using as at least three out of five metabolic health criteria along with obesity (body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2). We used Cox proportional hazards model to assess CHD risk in each metabolic health and obesity phenotypes.

RESULTS

During 1,376,050 person-years of follow-up, adult cancer survivors with MHO phenotype had a significantly higher risk of CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.52; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.41 to 1.65) as compared to those without obesity and metabolic abnormalities. MUN (HR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.59 to 2.06) and MUO (HR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.72 to 2.15) phenotypes were also associated with an increased risk of CHD among adult cancer survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

Adult cancer survivors with MHO phenotype had a higher risk of CHD than those who are MHN. Metabolic health status and obesity were jointly associated with CHD risk in adult cancer survivors.

Association of metabolically unhealthy non-obese and metabolically healthy obese individuals with arterial stiffness and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk: a cross-sectional study in Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

The relationship between metabolically healthy obese individuals (MHO) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is disputed. This study investigated the association of metabolically unhealthy non-obese(MUNO) individuals and MHO with arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk.

METHODS

A total of 13,435 participants were enrolled and further divided into the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) phenotype (n = 4927), MUNO phenotype (n = 1971), MHO phenotype (n = 2537) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotype (n = 4000) according to body mass index (BMI) and metabolic status. We used brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) to measure arterial stiffness and the Framingham risk score (FRS) to evaluate the 10-year CVD risk.

RESULTS

The MUO and MUNO phenotypes had higher mean baPWV values than the MHO and MHNO phenotypes, regardless of age (1446.19 ± 233.65 vs. 1423.29 ± 240.72 vs. 1283.57 ± 213.77 vs. 1234.08 ± 215.99 cm/s, P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the MUNO and MUO phenotypes were independently correlated with elevated baPWV and 10-year CVD risk, while the MHO phenotype was independently associated with only the 10-year CVD risk. In metabolically healthy subjects, BMI showed a dose-dependent increase in the risk of elevated baPWV, with an adjusted OR of 1.007 (95% CI 1.004-1.010, P < 0.001). However, in metabolically unhealthy participants, the estimate for the relationship between elevated baPWV and BMI was nonsignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

The MUNO phenotype exhibits increased arterial stiffness and 10-year CVD risk. However, BMI is positively and dose-dependently correlated with arterial stiffness only in metabolically healthy subjects. We speculate that metabolic status may be a strong confounder in the obesity-elevated baPWV association.

Epidemiological trend and age-period-cohort effects on cardiovascular disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years attributable to dietary risks and high body mass index at the regional and country level across China and Pakistan

Background

Modifiable risk factors are major drivers of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine the epidemiological trend and age-period-cohort effects on CVD burden attributable to dietary risks and high body mass index (BMI) across China and Pakistan from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on the all-ages and age-specific CVD burden, age-standardized CVD mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to find temporal trends and age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on CVD burden.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD burden attributable to dietary risks and high BMI increased by ~2-3-fold in China and by 3-5-fold in Pakistan. The diet-related CVD age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate significantly decreased in China but increased in Pakistan. Both countries showed a marked increasing trend of CVD ASMR and the age-standardized DALYs rate attributable to high BMI. Taiwan in China showed a remarkable reduction in CVD burden. However, in Pakistan, all regions observed a significantly increasing trend of CVD burden attributable to modifiable risk factors. A higher risk ratio of premature CVD mortality (<70 years) was observed among Chinese attributable to high BMI and among Pakistani attributable to dietary risks. In China, early birth cohorts showed a higher risk ratio and recent birth cohorts experienced a lower risk ratio of CVD burden compared with Pakistan.

Conclusion

In conclusion, dietary risks and high BMI caused a huge CVD burden across China and Pakistan.

A novel criterion of metabolically healthy obesity could effectively identify individuals with low cardiovascular risk among Chinese cohort

Background and objective

Obesity has become a serious public health problem and brings a heavy burden of cardiovascular disease. Metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) is defined as individuals with obesity with no or only minor metabolic complications. Whether individuals with MHO have a lower cardiovascular risk remains controversial. In this study, a new criterion was used to define MHO and assess its predictive value for cardiovascular events and death. At the same time, the new criterion and the traditional criterion are compared to analyze the differences between different diagnostic criteria.

Methods

A prospective cohort was established in northeast rural China from 2012 to 2013. Follow-up was conducted in 2015 and 2018 to investigate the incidence of cardiovascular events and survival. Subjects were grouped according to the metabolic health and obesity status. Kaplan-Meier curves were drawn to describe the cumulative risk of endpoint events in the four groups. Cox regression analysis model was constructed to evaluate the risk of endpoint events. Analysis of variance and post hoc analyses were used to calculate and compare differences in metabolic markers between MHO subjects diagnosed by novel and traditional criteria.

Results

A total of 9345 participants 35 years of age or older without a history of cardiovascular disease were included in this study. After a median follow-up of 4.66 years, the data showed that participants in the MHO group had no significant increase in the risk of composite cardiovascular events and stroke, but had a 162% increase in the risk of coronary heart disease (HR: 2.62; 95%CI: 1.21-5.67). However, when using conventional criteria for metabolic health, mMHO group had a 52% increase in combined CVD risk (HR: 1.52; 95%CI: 1.14-2.03). By comparing the differences of metabolic indicators between MHO subjects diagnosed by the two criteria, MHO subjects diagnosed by the new criterion had higher WC, WHR, TG, FPG, and lower HDL-C levels except for lower blood pressure, showing more exposure to cardiovascular risk factors.

Conclusions

The risk of combined CVD and stroke was not increased in MHO subjects. The new metabolic health criterion is superior to the traditional criterion and can effectively identify individuals with obesity with a lower risk of combined CVD. Blood pressure levels may be responsible for the inconsistent risk of combined CVD in MHO subjects diagnosed with both criteria.

Predictive value of liver fibrosis scores in cardiovascular diseases among hypertensive population

PURPOSE

To explore the predictive value of liver fibrosis scores [fibrosis-4, AST/platelet ratio index, BAAT score (BMI Age ALT TG), and BARD score (BMI AST/ALT Ratio Diabetes)] for the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a hypertensive population.

METHODS

A total of 4164 hypertensive participants without history of CVD were enrolled in the follow-up. Four liver fibrosis scores (LFSs) were used, including the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), APRI, BAAT score, and BARD score. The endpoint was CVD incidence which was defined as stroke or coronary heart disease (CHD) during the follow-up period. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios between LFSs and CVD. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to show the probability of CVD in different levels of LFSs. Restricted cubic spline further explored whether the relationship between LFSs and CVD was linear. Finally, we assessed the discriminatory ability of each LFS for CVD was assessed using C -statistics, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 4.66 years, 282 hypertensive participants had CVD. Kaplan-Meier curve showed that four LFSs were associated with CVD and high levels of LFSs significantly increase the probability of CVD in hypertensive population. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the adjusted hazard ratios for four LFSs were 3.13 in FIB-4, 1.66 in APRI, 1.47 in BAAT score, and 1.36 in BARD score. Moreover, after adding LFSs to original risk prediction model, we find that all four new models have higher C -statistics of CVD than the traditional model. Furthermore, the results of both NRI and IDI were positive, indicating that LFSs enhanced the effect on the prediction of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that LFSs were associated with CVD in hypertensive populations in northeastern China. Furthermore, it suggested that LFSs could be a new tool for identifying patients at high risk of primary CVD in a hypertensive population.

Use of the Vascular Overload Index to Predict Cardiovascular Disease in a Rural Population of China

Objective

To explore the relationship between vascular overload index (VOI) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in rural population and find effective ways to prevent cardiovascular disease in rural low-income populations.

Methods

The data for this study was obtained from a large cohort study called the Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study (NCRCHS) conducted in 2013 and followed up during 2015-2018. 10,174 subjects completed at least one follow-up visit. Cox regression equation was used to explore whether VOI and cardiovascular disease were independently related. The Kaplan-Meier curves were used to calculate the cumulative incidence of any adverse outcome, and the log-rank test and restrict mean survival analysis were used to compare group differences. Reclassification and discrimination statistics were used to determine whether VOI could strengthen the ability of the model to predict CVD events.

Results

The prevalence of CVD in the VOI quartiles was 1.92%, 3.96%, 5.42%, and 11.34% for Q1-Q4, respectively (P for trend <0.001). After adjusting for multiple confounders, there was a 2.466-fold increased risk of CVD when comparing the highest and lowest groups. Besides, this study found that for every standard deviation increase, the results still exist. The risk of cardiovascular disease increased by 1.358-fold in this model. The restrict mean survival analysis results show that with the increase of VOI, the restrict mean survival time (RMST) within 5 years gradually became shorter. Reclassification and discrimination statistics indicated that VOI significantly enhanced the ability to estimate CVD events within 4 years.

Conclusion

Analyses showed that VOI was significantly associated with CVD. VOI is a simple and accurate prognostic marker of CVD risk, which has the potential ability to improve the risk stratification of CVD.

Predictive Value of the Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) Score in Cardiovascular Disease among Middle-Aged Population

PURPOSE

To explore the predictive value of ACEF scores for identifying the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.

METHODS

A total of 8613 participants without a history of CVD were enrolled in the follow-up. The endpoint was CVD incidence, defined as stroke or coronary heart disease (CHD) diagnosed during the follow-up period. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with respect to the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) scores and CVD. A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to analyze the probability of CVD in different quartiles of ACEF. Restricted cubic spline was used to further explore whether the relationship between ACEF and CVD was linear. Finally, we assessed the discriminatory ability of ACEF for CVD using C-statistics, net reclassification index, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 4.66 years, 388 participants were diagnosed with CVD. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that ACEF was associated with CVD, and participants with high ACEF scores were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with CVD compared to participants with low ACEF scores in the general population. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the adjusted HRs for four quartiles of ACEF were as follows: the first quartile was used as a reference; the second quartile: HR = 2.33; the third quartile: HR = 4.81; the fourth quartile: HR = 8.00. Moreover, after adding ACEF to the original risk prediction model, we observed that new models had higher C-statistic values of CVD than the traditional model. Furthermore, the results of both NRI and IDI were positive, indicating that ACEF enhanced the prediction of CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that the ACEF score was associated with CVD in the general population in northeastern China. Furthermore, ACEF could be a new tool for identifying patients at high risk of primary CVD in the general population.

Relationship between metabolically healthy obesity and the development of hypertension: a nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Metabolically healthy obesity (MHO), has been recognized as a transient phenotype with few cardiometabolic diseases; however, little is known regarding the development of hypertension in subjects with an absence of cardiometabolic abnormalities and general obesity evaluated by body mass index (BMI) or abdominal obesity evaluated by waist circumference (WC).

METHODS

A total of 4764 participants were enrolled from the China Health and Nutrition Survey and followed up from 2009 to 2015, whose fasting blood samples were collected in 2009. Obesity was classified as abdominal obesity (WC ≥ 90 cm in men and ≥ 80 cm in women) and general obesity (BMI ≥ 25.0 kg/m²). Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between MHO and prehypertension (120 < SBP < 140 mmHg or 80 < DBP < 90 mmHg) and hypertension (SBP ≥ 140 or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg). The age- and sex-specific impacts were further analyzed.

RESULTS

There were 412 (37.9%) participants with prehypertension and 446 (41.0%) participants with hypertension and metabolically healthy abdominal obesity (MHAO). The participants with the MHAO phenotype had significantly higher risks of prehypertension [odds ratio (OR) = 1.89 (1.51-2.36), p < 0.001] and hypertension [OR = 2.58 (2.02-3.30), p < 0.001] than those metabolically healthy but without abdominal obesity. Similar associations were observed in the subjects with metabolically healthy general obesity (MHGO) phenotype, particularly those aged under 64 years. Men with the MHAO phenotype seemed to have higher risks of prehypertension [2.42 (1.52-3.86) in men vs. 1.76 (1.36-2.29) in women] and hypertension [3.80 (2.38-6.06) in men vs. 2.22 (1.64-3.00) in women] than women, when compared with those metabolically healthy but without abdominal obesity.

CONCLUSION

The MHO phenotype, regardless of the presence of general or abdominal obesity, showed a worse effect on the development of prehypertension and hypertension, particularly in young adults. Abdominal adiposity with a healthy metabolic state is significantly associated with incident hypertension in both men and women. These findings can guide the establishment of risk-stratified obesity treatments.

Association between obese phenotypes and risk of carotid artery plaque among chinese male railway drivers

BACKGROUND

China has the world's highest rail transportation network density, and the prevalence of obesity among railway workers in China is more than twice that of adults in the world. Carotid artery plaque (CAP) is a simple and noninvasive predictor of early atherosclerosis, while the association between different obese phenotypes and CAP risk among Chinese male railway drivers is unclear.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed among 8,645 Chinese male railway drivers. Obese phenotypes were assessed based on the obesity status (the body mass index ≥ 28 kg/m² as obesity vs. < 28 kg/m² as non-obesity) and metabolic status (metabolically healthy vs. metabolically unhealthy). Metabolically unhealthy was defined as the presence of at least one dysfunction, including elevated blood pressure, elevated fasting blood glucose, elevated triglyceride, and reduced high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol. Four obese phenotypes were defined based on the body mass index and metabolic status, i.e., metabolically healthy non-obesity (MHNO), metabolically healthy obesity (MHO), metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO), and metabolically unhealthy non-obesity (MUNO). Multivariable logistic regression was employed to estimate the association between different obese phenotypes and the risk of CAP. Subgroup analysis was performed to examine the variation of the association by age, circadian rhythm disorders, and history of smoking and drinking.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CAP among male railway drivers in MHO, MUO, MUNO, and MHNO was 8.75%, 18.67%, 17.82%, and 5.36%, respectively. Compared to those with MHNO, an increased risk for CAP was observed among those with MHO (OR = 2.18, 95% CI: 0.82, 5.10), MUO (OR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.44, 2.21), and MUNO (OR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.67, 2.89). The subgroup analysis showed that both of the metabolically unhealthy groups (MUNO and MUO) aged < 45 years were prone to a higher risk of CAP (for the MUNO group, OR = 4.27, 95% CI:2.71, 7.10; for the MUO group, OR = 4.00, 95%CI: 2.26, 7.17).

CONCLUSION

The obese phenotypes are associated with CAP risk in male railway drivers, especially those with metabolically unhealthy conditions aged < 45 years.

Impact of liver fibrosis score on the incidence of stroke: A cohort study

PURPOSE

The purpose was to explore the value of liver fibrosis scores (fibrosis-4, BAAT score and BARD score) for incidence risk of stroke in a cohort study.

METHODS

A total of 9088 participants without stroke history enrolled the follow-up. Three liver fibrosis scores (LFSs) including FIB-4, BARD score and BAAT score were adopted. The end point was stroke. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to show the probability of stoke in different levels of LFSs. Subgroup analysis showed the association between LFSs and stroke under different stratification. Restricted cubic spline could further explore whether there is a linear relationship between LFSs and stroke. Finally, we used C-statistics, Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) to assess the discriminatory power of each LFS for stroke.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 4.66 years, 272 participants had a stroke. Through the baseline characteristics, we observed that the stroke incidence population tends to be male and older. It was shown by Kaplan-Meier that three LFSs were associated with stroke and high levels of LFSs significantly increase the probability of stroke. In the univariate Cox regression analysis, the HR of stroke risk was 6.04 (4.14-8.18) in FIB-4, 2.10 (1.45-3.04) in BAAT score and 1.81 (1.38-2.38) in BARD score by comparing the high level with the low level at each LFSs. The adjusted HRs for three LFSs were 2.05 (1.33-3.15) in FIB-4, 1.61 (1.10-2.35) in BAAT score and 1.54 (1.17-2.04) in BARD score by comparing the high group with low group. We found that multivariable-adjusted HRs of three LFSs still increased for stroke when stratified by various factors in subgroup analysis. Moreover, after adding LFSs to original risk prediction model which consist of age, sex, drinking, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol and triglycerides, we found that new models have higher C-statistics of stroke. Furthermore, we calculated Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) to show the ability of LFSs to predict stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that three LFSs were associated with stroke amongst middle-aged populations in rural areas of Northeast China. Furthermore, it suggests that LFSs can be used as a risk stratification tool to predict stroke.

The Value of Hemoglobin Glycation Index-Diabetes Mellitus System in Evaluating and Predicting Incident Stroke in the Chinese Population

We aimed to clarify the effect of the hemoglobin glycation index (HGI)–diabetes mellitus (DM) system in evaluating the risk of incident stroke. We followed up on 2934 subjects in rural regions of Northeast China, established Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the effects of the HGI–DM system in describing stroke risk, and further conducted a discrimination analysis to confirm the improvement in HGI based on the traditional stroke risk model. After a median of 4.23 years of follow-up, 79 subjects developed stroke or related death. DM-high HGI condition significantly elevated the risk of incident stroke (hazard ratio (HR): 2.655, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.251–5.636). In addition, higher HGI levels elevated the risk of stroke, even if the patients did not have DM (HR: 1.701, 95% CI: 1.136–2.792), but DM failed to bring an extra risk of incident stroke to patients with lower HGI levels (HR: 1.138, 95% CI: 0.337–3.847). The discrimination analysis indicated that the integrated discrimination index (IDI) of the HGI model was 0.012 (95% CI: 0.007–0.015) and that the net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.036 (95% CI: 0.0198–0.0522). These results indicated HGI was associated with the onset of stroke, and high HGI indicated an aggravated trend in glycemic status and increased risk of incident stroke. The HGI–DM system enabled us to identify the different glucose statuses of patients, to conduct suitable treatment strategies, as well as to improve the predictability of incident stroke based on the traditional model.

Health consequences of obesity and projected future obesity health burden in China

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the effects of overweight/obesity on mortality and morbidity outcomes and the disparities, time trends, and projected future obesity health burden in China.

METHODS

Cohort studies that were conducted in China and published in English or Chinese between January 1, 1995, and July 31, 2021, were systematically searched. This study focused on overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome, cancers, and chronic kidney disease.

RESULTS

A total of 31 cohorts and 50 cohort studies reporting on mortality (n = 20) and morbidities (n = 30) associated with obesity met study inclusion criteria. Overall, BMI was nonlinearly (U-shaped) associated with all-cause mortality and linearly associated with risks of T2DM, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, cancer, metabolic syndrome, and chronic kidney disease. In 2018, among adults, the prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and T2DM was 51.2%, 27.5%, and 12.4%, respectively. Their future projected prevalence would be 70.5%, 35.4%, and 18.5% in 2030, respectively. The projected number of adults having these conditions would be 810.65 million, 416.47 million, and 217.64 million, respectively. The urban-rural disparity in overweight/obesity prevalence was projected to shrink and then reverse over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The current health burden of obesity in China is high and it will sharply increase in coming years and affect population groups differently. China needs to implement vigorous interventions for obesity prevention and treatment.

Transition of Metabolic Phenotypes and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation According to BMI: Kailuan Study

Objective

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with both obesity and its metabolic consequences. However, there is a paucity of information on whether the dynamic change of metabolic health and obesity phenotypes affect the risk of AF. We aimed to prospectively examine the association between metabolic health and its change over time and AF risk across body mass index (BMI) categories.

Methods

A total of 58,483 participants without history of cancer, and cardiovascular diseases from the Kailuan study were included in the present study. Transition of metabolic phenotypes was evaluated between 1st survey (2006–2007) and the 2nd survey (2008–2009). The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AF were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

During a median follow-up of 3 years, we documented 580 cases of AF. Compared with metabolically healthy individuals with normal weight, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for metabolically healthy and unhealthy overweight/obese were 1.27 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.59) and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.72), respectively. However, when transition was taken into account, overweight/obese people who maintained metabolically healthy status were not associated with increased long-term risk (HR, 1.11;95% CI: 0.70, 1.78), whereas participants who converted from metabolically healthy overweight/obese status to an unhealthy phenotype had higher AF risk than those who maintained metabolically healthy normal weight (HR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.26). When BMI and metabolically healthy status were updated over the course of the study, significant short-term elevations in AF risk were associated with individuals with stable MU-OW/OB status.

Conclusion

In this community-based cohort study, metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals have increased risks of AF. Obesity remains a risk factor for AF independent of major metabolic factors. Our data further suggested that metabolic phenotype was a dynamic condition, and maintenance of metabolic health and normal weight might alleviate the risk of AF.

Prolonged or Transition to Metabolically Unhealthy Status, Regardless of Obesity Status, Is Associated with Higher Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Incidence and Mortality in Koreans

The risk of chronic disease and mortality may differ by metabolic health and obesity status and its transition. We investigated the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer incidence and mortality according to metabolic health and obesity status and their transition using the nationally representative Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and the Ansan-Ansung (ASAS) cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. Participants that agreed to mortality linkage (n = 28,468 in KNHANES and n = 7530 adults in ASAS) were analyzed (mean follow-up: 8.2 and 17.4 years, respectively). Adults with no metabolic risk factors and BMI <25 or ≥25 kg/m2 were categorized as metabolically healthy non-obese (MHN) or metabolically healthy obese (MHO), respectively. Metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUN) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) adults had ≥1 metabolic risk factor and a BMI < or ≥25 kg/m2, respectively. In KNHANES participants, MUN, and MUO had higher risks for cardiovascular mortality, but not cancer mortality, compared with MHN adults. MHO had 47% and 35% lower risks of cancer mortality and all-cause mortality, respectively, compared to MHN. Similar results were observed in the ASAS participants. Compared to those persistently MHN, the risk of CVD was greater when continuously MUN or MUO. Transitioning from a metabolically healthy state to MUO also increased the risk of CVD. Few associations were found for cancer incidence. Using a nationally representative cohort and an 18-year follow-up cohort, we observed that the risk of CVD incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality, but not cancer incidence or mortality, increases with a continuous or a transition to an unhealthy metabolic status in Koreans.

Metabolically healthy obesity: Is it really healthy for type 2 diabetes mellitus?

Metabolically healthy obese (MHO) individuals are reported to have a lower risk of developing cardiovascular diseases in comparison with individuals with metabolic syndrome. However, the association between MHO and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is still controversial. Some studies indicated that MHO is a favorable phenotype for T2DM, but more studies showed that MHO individuals have an increased risk of developing T2DM compared with metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals, especially among those who would acquire metabolically unhealthy obesity. This has been supported by finding insulin resistance and low-grade inflammatory responses in MHO individuals with a tendency for impaired beta-cell dysfunction. Studies also showed that liver fat accumulation increased the risk of incidence of T2DM in MHO. Here, we reviewed current literature on the relationship between MHO and T2DM, discussed the determinants for the development of diabetes in MHO, and summarized the measures for the prevention of T2DM in MHO.

UTP14A, DKC1, DDX10, PinX1, and ESF1 Modulate Cardiac Angiogenesis Leading to Obesity-Induced Cardiac Injury

BACKGROUND

This study is aimed at exploring the key genes and the possible mechanism of heart damage caused by obesity.

METHODS

We analyzed the GSE98226 dataset. Firstly, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in heart tissues of obese and normal mice. Then, we analyzed DEGs using Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis. Thirdly, we constructed a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network and key modules and searched hub genes. Finally, we observed the pathological changes associated with obesity through histopathology.

RESULTS

A total of 763 DEGs were discovered, including 629 upregulated and 134 downregulated genes. GO enrichment analysis showed that these DEGs were mainly related to the regulation of transcription, DNA-templated, nucleic acid binding, and metal ion binding. KEGG pathway analysis revealed that the DEGs were enriched in long-term depression, gap junction, and sphingolipid signaling pathways. Finally, we identified UTP14A, DKC1, DDX10, PinX1, and ESF1 as the hub genes. Histopathologic analysis showed that obesity increased the number of collagen fibers and decreased the number of microvessels and proliferation of the endothelium and increased endothelial cell damage which further leads to dysfunction of cardiac microcirculation.

CONCLUSION

UTP14A, DKC1, DDX10, PinX1, and ESF1 have been identified as hub genes in obesity-induced pathological changes in the heart and may be involved in obesity-induced cardiac injury by affecting cardiac microcirculatory function.

Monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio and systemic inflammation response index are associated with the risk of metabolic disorders and cardiovascular diseases in general rural population

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to clarify the effects of four inflammatory indicators (monocyte-to-high-density lipoprotein ratio [MHR], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], systematic immune-inflammation index [SII], and systemic inflammation response index [SIRI]) in evaluating the risk of metabolic diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD), filling the gap of inflammation-metabolism system research in epidemiology.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study and multivariable logistic regression analysis to elucidate the association between inflammatory indicators and metabolic diseases and CVD risk. Metabolic diseases were defined as metabolic disorders (MetDs) or their components, such as metabolic syndrome (MetS), dyslipidemia, and central obesity. We calculated the Framingham risk score (FRS) to evaluate 10-year CVD risk.

RESULTS

Odds ratios for the third vs. the first tertile of MHR were 2.653 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.142-3.286) for MetD, 2.091 (95% CI, 1.620-2.698) for MetS, 1.547 (95% CI, 1.287-1.859) for dyslipidemia, and 1.515 (95% CI, 1.389-1.652) for central obesity. Odds ratios for the third vs. the first tertile of SIRI were 2.092 (95% CI, 1.622-2.699) for MetD, 3.441 (95% CI, 2.917-4.058) for MetS, 1.417 (95% CI, 1.218-1.649) for dyslipidemia, and 2.080 (95% CI, 1.613-2.683) for central obesity. The odds ratio of a 10-year CVD risk of >30% for the third vs. the first tertile of MHR was 4.607 (95% CI, 2.648-8.017) and 3.397 (95% CI, 1.958-5.849) for SIRI.

CONCLUSIONS

MHR and SIRI had a significant association with MetD and its components, in which a higher level of MHR or SIRI tended to accompany a higher risk of metabolic diseases. Furthermore, they also correlated with CVD, and the increment of these indicators caused a gradually evaluated risk of 10-year CVD risk.

Associations between aortic regurgitation severity and risk of incident myocardial infarction and stroke among patients with degenerative aortic valve disease: insights from a large Chinese population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Few studies have explored whether the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke varies among patients with degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD) with different severity of aortic regurgitation (AR) or not. Thus, a prospective study was conducted to elucidate the causal relationship between AR severity and risk of incident MI and stroke among patients with DAVD recruited from a general population in Northeast China.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community-based study carried out in rural areas of Northeast China.

METHODS

There were 3675 patients with DAVD aged ≥45 years eligible for the prospective study. During a median follow-up time of 4.64 years, 99 participants lost to follow-up. Cox regression analyses were used to investigate the association between baseline AR severity and the risk of incident MI or stroke.

RESULTS

In the final cohort of 3576 patients with DAVD, there were 3153 patients without AR (88.2%), 386 patients with mild AR (10.8%) and 37 patients with moderate or severe AR (1.0%). Multivariate analyses showed that, compared with participants without AR, those with moderate/severe AR were associated with 8.33 and 6.22-fold increased risk of MI and MI mortality, respectively. However, no significant associations between AR and the risk of stroke or stroke mortality were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

As compared with no AR, moderate/severe AR but not mild AR was an independent predictor for the risk of MI and MI mortality. AR was not significantly associated with stroke or stroke mortality, irrespective of AR severity. Secondary prevention strategies should be taken to delay the progression of DAVD and thus reduce the incidence of MI.

Transitions in metabolic health status over time and risk of heart failure: a prospective study

AIMS

- Evidence for the effects of metabolically healthy obese (MHO) status on heart failure (HF) is limited and ignores the dynamic change of metabolic health and obesity phenotypes. We aimed to investigate the associations of metabolic health and its transition with HF across body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) categories.

METHODS

- This prospective cohort study was conducted with 93,288 Chinese adults who were free of cardiovascular disease, cancer or HF at baseline (2006-2007). Metabolic health was defined as having no or only one abnormality in blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or triglyceride levels. Participants were cross-classified at baseline by metabolic health and obesity (defined by BMI and WC criteria). Transitions in metabolic health status from 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 were considered. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for HF were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

- During a mean ± standard deviation follow-up of 9.7 ± 1.5 years, 1,628 participants developed HF. Individuals with MHO (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.45, 2.19 for BMI criteria; HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.76 for WC criteria) had higher risk of HF than those with metabolically healthy normal weight (MH-NW). Individuals with initial MHO who shifted to metabolically unhealthy phenotype during follow-up had higher risk of HF compared with stable MH-NW individuals (HR 3.12; 95% CI: 2.01, 4.85 for BMI categories; HR 1.98; 95% CI: 1.42, 2.77 for WC categories). Even stable MHO individuals were at an increased risk of HF compared with stable MH-NW individuals (HR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.39, 3.39 for BMI categories; HR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.85 for WC categories).

CONCLUSIONS

- MHO phenotype is dynamic and its transition to metabolically unhealthy phenotype or even stable MHO is associated with increased risk of HF. Maintaining metabolic health may provide a clue for preventing HF.

Health policy and public health implications of obesity in China

China has experienced many drastic social and economic changes and shifts in people's lifestyles since the 1990s, in parallel with the fast rising prevalence of obesity. About half of adults and a fifth of children have overweight or obesity according to the Chinese criteria, making China the country with the highest number of people with overweight or obesity in the world. Assuming that observed time trends would continue in the future, we projected the prevalence of and the number of people affected by overweight and obesity by 2030, and the associated medical costs. The rising incidence of obesity and number of people affected, as well as the related health and economic consequences, place a huge burden on China's health-care system. China has made many efforts to tackle obesity, including the implementation of relevant national policies and programmes. However, these measures are inadequate for controlling the obesity epidemic. In the past decade, China has attached great importance to public health, and the Healthy China 2030 national strategy initiated in 2016 provides a historical opportunity to establish comprehensive national strategies for tackling obesity. China is well positioned to explore an effective model to overcome the obesity epidemic; however, strong commitment and leadership from central and local governments are needed, as well as active participation of all related society sectors and individual citizens. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the paper see Supplementary Materials section.

Physical Activity, Step Counts, and Grip Strength in the Chinese Children and Families Cohort Study

Objectives: This paper describes the development of a physical activity questionnaire (PAQ) designed for Chinese adolescents and their mothers in urban and rural settings, and reports on results of the PAQ, pedometry, and hand grip dynamometry from the Chinese Children and Families Cohort Study pilot investigation (CFCS). Methods: As part of a pilot investigation to evaluate the feasibility to follow-up and obtain detailed nutrition, dietary, physical activity, and ultraviolet radiation (UVR) data from CFCS participants, data were collected in 2013 for 93 adolescent/mother pairs from a rural (n = 41) and an urban site (n = 52) in two provinces. Respondents were asked to wear a pedometer for seven days (Omron HJ-151), use a Takei Digital Grip Strength Dynamometer on (each hand; three trials; two separate days), and complete a 39 item, eight domain PAQ covering the past year. Self-reported physical activity (PA) was linked to metabolic equivalent of task (MET) scores in kcal/kg/hr and used to calculate METs for different domains of PA and intensity categories. Results: Compliance was high (95%) in this measurement protocol administered by health staff during a series of data collection efforts at home and local clinics or health centers. Step counts were highly variable, averaging between 5000 and 10000 per day with somewhat higher step counts in rural adolescent boys. Maximum grip strength (Kgs) was greater in children (Mean = 36.5, SE = 0.8) than mothers (Mean = 28.8, SE = 0.8) and similar in the urban (Mean = 29.6, SE = 0.6) compared to the rural (Mean = 29.6, SE = 0.5) communities overall. Grip strength, step counts, and measures of time spent in different activities or activity intensities were uncorrelated. Conclusion: Device and question-based measurement of PA and strength were readily accepted in these Chinese urban and rural populations. The PAQ on physical activity in the past year produced some plausible population averages, but individual responses suggested recall challenges. If data about specific activities are required, future studies should explore use of standardized survey questions concerning such fewer specific activities or instruments examining shorter time periods such as one, three, or seven day recalls.