Using a machine learning algorithm to predict acute graft-versus-host disease following allogeneic transplantation

Leveraging machine learning for predicting acute graft-versus-host disease grades in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for T-cell prolymphocytic leukaemia

Orphan diseases, exemplified by T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia, present inherent challenges due to limited data availability and complexities in effective care. This study delves into harnessing the potential of machine learning to enhance care strategies for orphan diseases, specifically focusing on allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia. The investigation evaluates how varying numbers of variables impact model performance, considering the rarity of the disease. Utilizing data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, the study scrutinizes outcomes following allo-HCT for T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia. Diverse machine learning models were developed to forecast acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) occurrence and its distinct grades post-allo-HCT. Assessment of model performance relied on balanced accuracy, F1 score, and ROC AUC metrics. The findings highlight the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifier achieving the highest testing balanced accuracy of 0.58 in predicting aGvHD. However, challenges arose in its performance during multi-class classification tasks. While affirming the potential of machine learning in enhancing care for orphan diseases, the study underscores the impact of limited data and disease rarity on model performance.

Longitudinal clinical data improve survival prediction after hematopoietic cell transplantation using machine learning

ABSTRACT

Serial prognostic evaluation after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) might help identify patients at high risk of lethal organ dysfunction. Current prediction algorithms based on models that do not incorporate changes to patients' clinical condition after allo-HCT have limited predictive ability. We developed and validated a robust risk-prediction algorithm to predict short- and long-term survival after allo-HCT in pediatric patients that includes baseline biological variables and changes in the patients' clinical status after allo-HCT. The model was developed using clinical data from children and young adults treated at a single academic quaternary-care referral center. The model was created using a randomly split training data set (70% of the cohort), internally validated (remaining 30% of the cohort) and then externally validated on patient data from another tertiary-care referral center. Repeated clinical measurements performed from 30 days before allo-HCT to 30 days afterwards were extracted from the electronic medical record and incorporated into the model to predict survival at 100 days, 1 year, and 2 years after allo-HCT. Naïve-Bayes machine learning models incorporating longitudinal data were significantly better than models constructed from baseline variables alone at predicting whether patients would be alive or deceased at the given time points. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates that unlike traditional prognostic tools that use fixed variables for risk assessment, incorporating dynamic variability using clinical and laboratory data improves the prediction of mortality in patients undergoing allo-HCT.

Application of machine learning in the management of lymphoma: Current practice and future prospects

In the past decade, digitization of medical records and multiomics data analysis in lymphoma has led to the accessibility of high-dimensional records. The digitization of medical records, the visualization of extensive volume data extracted from medical images, and the integration of multiomics methods into clinical decision-making have produced many datasets. As a promising auxiliary tool, machine learning (ML) intends to extract homologous features in large-scale data sets and encode them into various patterns to complete complicated tasks. At present, artificial intelligence and digital mining have shown promising prospects in the field of lymphoma pathological image analysis. The paradigm shift from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis makes the pathological diagnosis more intelligent and the results more accurate and objective. ML can promote accurate lymphoma diagnosis and provide patients with prognostic information and more individualized treatment options. Based on the above, this comprehensive review of the general workflow of ML highlights recent advances in ML techniques in the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of lymphoma, and clarifies the boundedness and future orientation of the ML technique in the clinical practice of lymphoma.

A dynamic time-to-event model for prediction of acute graft-versus-host disease in patients after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

BACKGROUND

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is a major cause of death for patients following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Effective management of moderate to severe aGvHD remains challenging despite recent advances in HSCT, emphasizing the importance of prophylaxis and risk factor identification.

METHODS

In this study, we analyzed data from 1479 adults who underwent HSCT between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the effects of aGvHD prophylaxis and time-dependent risk factors on the development of grades II-IV aGvHD within 100 days post-HSCT.

RESULTS

Using a dynamic longitudinal time-to-event model, we observed a non-monotonic baseline hazard overtime with a low hazard during the first few days and a maximum hazard at day 17, described by Bateman function with a mean transit time of approximately 11 days. Multivariable analysis revealed significant time-dependent effects of white blood cell counts and cyclosporine A exposure as well as static effects of female donors for male recipients, patients with matched related donors, conditioning regimen consisting of fludarabine plus total body irradiation, and patient age in recipients of grafts from related donors on the risk to develop grades II-IV aGvHD. Additionally, we found that higher cumulative hazard on day 7 after allo-HSCT are associated with an increased incidence of grades II-IV aGvHD within 100 days indicating that an individual assessment of the cumulative hazard on day 7 could potentially serve as valuable predictor for later grades II-IV aGvHD development. Using the final model, stochastic simulations were performed to explore covariate effects on the cumulative incidence over time and to estimate risk ratios.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the presented model showed good descriptive and predictive performance and provides valuable insights into the interplay of multiple static and time-dependent risk factors for the prediction of aGvHD.

Data-driven grading of acute graft-versus-host disease

Despite advances in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation, acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) remains its leading complication, yet with heterogeneous outcomes. Here, we analyzed aGVHD phenotypes and clinical classifications in depth in large, multicenter cohorts involving 3019 patients and addressed prevailing gaps by developing data-driven models. We compared, tested and verified these along with all conventional classifications in independent cohorts and found that data-driven grading outperformed conventional grading in Akaike information criterion and concordance index metrics. Data-driven classifications refined aGVHD assessment with up to 12 severity grades, which were associated with distinct nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and confirmed the key role of intestinal aGVHD. We developed an online calculator for physicians to implement principal component-derived grading (PC1). These results provide substantial insight into the evaluation of aGVHD phenotypes and multiorgan involvement, which relegates the exclusive reporting of overall aGVHD severity grades in transplant registries and clinical trials. Data-driven aGVHD grading provides an expandable platform to refine classification and transplant risk assessment.

Machine learning applications and challenges in graft-versus-host disease: a scoping review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review delves into the potential of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), in enhancing graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) risk assessment, diagnosis, and personalized treatment.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies have demonstrated the superiority of ML algorithms over traditional multivariate statistical models in donor selection for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. ML has recently enabled dynamic risk assessment by modeling time-series data, an upgrade from the static, "snapshot" assessment of patients that conventional statistical models and older ML algorithms offer. Regarding diagnosis, a deep learning model, a subset of ML, can accurately identify skin segments affected with chronic GVHD with satisfactory results. ML methods such as Q-learning and deep reinforcement learning have been utilized to develop adaptive treatment strategies (ATS) for the personalized prevention and treatment of acute and chronic GVHD.

SUMMARY

To capitalize on these promising advancements, there is a need for large-scale, multicenter collaborations to develop generalizable ML models. Furthermore, addressing pertinent issues such as the implementation of stringent ethical guidelines is crucial before the widespread introduction of AI into GVHD care.

Assessment of risk factors for acute graft-versus-host disease post-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a retrospective study based on a proportional odds model using a nonlinear mixed-effects model

Background

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is a major complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT).

Objective

This study aimed to explore the risk factors for the incidence of aGVHD in patients post-HSCT.

Design

This was a retrospective study.

Methods

A total of 407 patients were enrolled. The patients' data were recorded from the medical records. The exposure of cyclosporine was estimated based on a population pharmacokinetics model. The occurrence of aGVHD was clinically graded and staged in severity from grades I to IV. A proportional odds model that estimated the cumulative probabilities of aGVHD was used to analyze the data using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. Then, the model parameters and plausibility were evaluated by bootstrap and visual predictive checks.

Results

The typical probabilities were 18.9% and 17.9% for grade II and grades III-IV, respectively. The incidence of grade II and grade III-IV aGVHD for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplo sibling donor patients was higher than that for HLA-matched donor patients. The incidence of grade II and grade III-IV aGVHD decreased with increasing early cyclosporine trough concentration; however, cyclosporine exposure was not associated with the incidence of aGVHD.

Conclusion

HLA matching and early cyclosporine trough concentration were important factors for the occurrence of aGVHD.

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Survival Post-Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: A Single-Center Experience

INTRODUCTION

Prediction of outcomes following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) remains a major challenge. Machine learning (ML) is a computational procedure that may facilitate the generation of HCT prediction models. We sought to investigate the prognostic potential of multiple ML algorithms when applied to a large single-center allogeneic HCT database.

METHODS

Our registry included 2,697 patients that underwent allogeneic HCT from January 1976 to December 2017. 45 pretransplant baseline variables were included in the predictive assessment of each ML algorithm on overall survival (OS) as determined by area under the curve (AUC). Pretransplant variables used in the EBMT ML study (Shouval et al., 2015) were used as a benchmark for comparison.

RESULTS

On the entire dataset, the random forest (RF) algorithm performed best (AUC 0.71 ± 0.04) compared to the second-best model, logistic regression (LR) (AUC = 0.69 ± 0.04) (p < 0.001). Both algorithms demonstrated improved AUC scores using all 45 variables compared to the limited variables examined by the EBMT study. Survival at 100 days post-HCT using RF on the full dataset discriminated patients into different prognostic groups with different 2-year OS (p < 0.0001). We then examined the ML methods that allow for significant individual variable identification, including LR and RF, and identified matched related donors (HR = 0.49, p < 0.0001), increasing TBI dose (HR = 1.60, p = 0.006), increasing recipient age (HR = 1.92, p < 0.0001), higher baseline Hb (HR = 0.59, p = 0.0002), and increased baseline FEV1 (HR = 0.73, p = 0.02), among others.

CONCLUSION

The application of multiple ML techniques on single-center allogeneic HCT databases warrants further investigation and may provide a useful tool to identify variables with prognostic potential.

A convolutional neural network-based model that predicts acute graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

BACKGROUND

Forecasting acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is highly challenging with conventional statistical techniques due to complex parameters and their interactions. The primary object of this study was to establish a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based prediction model for aGVHD.

METHOD

We analyzed adult patients who underwent allogeneic HSCT between 2008 and 2018, using the Japanese nationwide registry database. The CNN algorithm, equipped with a natural language processing technique and an interpretable explanation algorithm, was applied to develop and validate prediction models.

RESULTS

Here, we evaluate 18,763 patients between 16 and 80 years of age (median, 50 years). In total, grade II-IV and grade III-IV aGVHD is observed among 42.0% and 15.6%. The CNN-based model eventually allows us to calculate a prediction score of aGVHD for an individual case, which is validated to distinguish the high-risk group of aGVHD in the test cohort: cumulative incidence of grade III-IV aGVHD at Day 100 after HSCT is 28.8% for patients assigned to a high-risk group by the CNN model, compared to 8.4% among low-risk patients (hazard ratio, 4.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.70-5.97; p < 0.01), suggesting high generalizability. Furthermore, our CNN-based model succeeds in visualizing the learning process. Moreover, contributions of pre-transplant parameters other than HLA information to the risk of aGVHD are determined.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that CNN-based prediction provides a faithful prediction model for aGVHD, and can serve as a valuable tool for decision-making in clinical practice.

Nomogram for Predicting Early Mortality after Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation in Children with Inborn Errors of Immunity

PURPOSE

Pediatric patients with inborn errors of immunity (IEI) undergoing umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) are at risk of early mortality. Our aim was to develop and validate a prediction model for early mortality after UCBT in pediatric IEI patients based on pretransplant factors.

METHODS

Data from 230 pediatric IEI patients who received their first UCBT between 2014 and 2021 at a single center were analyzed retrospectively. Data from 2014-2019 and 2020-2021 were used as training and validation sets, respectively. The primary outcome of interest was early mortality. Machine learning algorithms were used to identify risk factors associated with early mortality and to build predictive models. The model with the best performance was visualized using a nomogram. Discriminative ability was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Fifty days was determined as the cutoff for distinguishing early mortality in pediatric IEI patients undergoing UCBT. Of the 230 patients, 43 (18.7%) suffered early mortality. Multivariate logistic regression with pretransplant albumin, CD4 (absolute count), elevated C-reactive protein, and medical history of sepsis showed good discriminant AUC values of 0.7385 (95% CI, 0.5824-0.8945) and 0.827 (95% CI, 0.7409-0.9132) in predicting early mortality in the validation and training sets, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.5385 and 0.8154 for validation and 0.7667 and 0.7705 for training, respectively. The final model yielded net benefits across a reasonable range of risk thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram can predict early mortality in pediatric IEI patients undergoing UCBT.

A model based on machine learning for the prediction of cyclosporin A trough concentration in Chinese allo-HSCT patients

BACKGROUND

Cyclosporin A is a calcineurin inhibitor which has a narrow therapeutic window and high interindividual variability. Various population pharmacokinetic models have been reported; however, professional software and technical personnel were needed and the variables of the models were limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a model based on machine learning to predict CsA trough concentrations in Chinese allo-HSCT patients.

METHODS

A total of 7874 cases of CsA therapeutic drug monitoring data from 2069 allo-HSCT patients were retrospectively included. Sequential forward selection was used to select variable subsets, and eight different algorithms were applied to establish the prediction model.

RESULTS

XGBoost exhibited the highest prediction ability. Except for the variables that were identified by previous studies, some rarely reported variables were found, such as norethindrone, WBC, PAB, and hCRP. The prediction accuracy within ±30% of the actual trough concentration was above 0.80, and the predictive ability of the models was demonstrated to be effective in external validation.

CONCLUSION

In this study, models based on machine learning technology were established to predict CsA levels 3-4 days in advance during the early inpatient phase after HSCT. A new perspective for CsA clinical application is provided.

Time-dependent prediction of mortality and cytomegalovirus reactivation after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation using machine learning

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) effectively treats high-risk hematologic diseases but can entail HCT-specific complications, which may be minimized by appropriate patient management, supported by accurate, individual risk estimation. However, almost all HCT risk scores are limited to a single risk assessment before HCT without incorporation of additional data. We developed machine learning models that integrate both baseline patient data and time-dependent laboratory measurements to individually predict mortality and cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation after HCT at multiple time points per patient. These gradient boosting machine models provide well-calibrated, time-dependent risk predictions and achieved areas under the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.92 and 0.83 and areas under the precision-recall curve of 0.58 and 0.62 for prediction of mortality and CMV reactivation, respectively, in a 21-day time window. Both models were successfully validated in a prospective, non-interventional study and performed on par with expert hematologists in a pilot comparison.

Survival Prediction of Children Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Using Different Machine Learning Classifiers by Performing Chi-Square Test and Hyperparameter Optimization: A Retrospective Analysis

Bone marrow transplant (BMT) is an effective surgical treatment for bone marrow-related disorders. However, several associated risk factors can impair long-term survival after BMT. Machine learning (ML) technologies have been proven useful in survival prediction of BMT receivers along with the influences that limit their resilience. In this study, an efficient classification model predicting the survival of children undergoing BMT is presented using a public dataset. Several supervised ML methods were investigated in this regard with an 80-20 train-test split ratio. To ensure prediction with minimal time and resources, only the top 11 out of the 59 dataset features were considered using Chi-square feature selection method. Furthermore, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) using the grid search cross-validation (GSCV) technique was adopted to increase the accuracy of prediction. Four experiments were conducted utilizing a combination of default and optimized hyperparameters on the original and reduced datasets. Our investigation revealed that the top 11 features of HPO had the same prediction accuracy (94.73%) as the entire dataset with default parameters, however, requiring minimal time and resources. Hence, the proposed approach may aid in the development of a computer-aided diagnostic system with satisfactory accuracy and minimal computation time by utilizing medical data records.

A Review of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Hematology Management: Current Practices and Future Prospects

Background

Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods have recently garnered a great deal of attention in the field of cancer research by making a noticeable contribution to the growth of predictive medicine and modern oncological practices. Considerable focus has been particularly directed toward hematologic malignancies because of the complexity in detecting early symptoms. Many patients with blood cancer do not get properly diagnosed until their cancer has reached an advanced stage with limited treatment prospects. Hence, the state-of-the-art revolves around the latest artificial intelligence (AI) applications in hematology management.

Objective

This comprehensive review provides an in-depth analysis of the current AI practices in the field of hematology. Our objective is to explore the ML and DL applications in blood cancer research, with a special focus on the type of hematologic malignancies and the patient’s cancer stage to determine future research directions in blood cancer.

Methods

We searched a set of recognized databases (Scopus, Springer, and Web of Science) using a selected number of keywords. We included studies written in English and published between 2015 and 2021. For each study, we identified the ML and DL techniques used and highlighted the performance of each model.

Results

Using the aforementioned inclusion criteria, the search resulted in 567 papers, of which 144 were selected for review.

Conclusions

The current literature suggests that the application of AI in the field of hematology has generated impressive results in the screening, diagnosis, and treatment stages. Nevertheless, optimizing the patient’s pathway to treatment requires a prior prediction of the malignancy based on the patient’s symptoms or blood records, which is an area that has still not been properly investigated.

Predicting Long-term Survival After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Patients With Hematologic Malignancies: Machine Learning-Based Model Development and Validation

Background

Scoring systems developed for predicting survival after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) show suboptimal prediction power, and various factors affect posttransplantation outcomes.

Objective

A prediction model using a machine learning–based algorithm can be an alternative for concurrently applying multiple variables and can reduce potential biases. In this regard, the aim of this study is to establish and validate a machine learning–based predictive model for survival after allogeneic HCT in patients with hematologic malignancies.

Methods

Data from 1470 patients with hematologic malignancies who underwent allogeneic HCT between December 1993 and June 2020 at Asan Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea, were retrospectively analyzed. Using the gradient boosting machine algorithm, we evaluated a model predicting the 5-year posttransplantation survival through 10-fold cross-validation.

Results

The prediction model showed good performance with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.788 (SD 0.03). Furthermore, we developed a risk score predicting probabilities of posttransplantation survival in 294 randomly selected patients, and an agreement between the estimated predicted and observed risks of overall death, nonrelapse mortality, and relapse incidence was observed according to the risk score. Additionally, the calculated score demonstrated the possibility of predicting survival according to the different transplantation-related factors, with the visualization of the importance of each variable.

Conclusions

We developed a machine learning–based model for predicting long-term survival after allogeneic HCT in patients with hematologic malignancies. Our model provides a method for making decisions regarding patient and donor candidates or selecting transplantation-related resources, such as conditioning regimens.

Dynamic forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease after transplantation

Forecasting of severe acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) after transplantation is a challenging 'large p, small n' problem that suffers from nonuniform data sampling. We propose a dynamic probabilistic algorithm, daGOAT, that accommodates sampling heterogeneity, integrates multidimensional clinical data and continuously updates the daily risk score for severe aGVHD onset within a two-week moving window. In the studied cohorts, the cross-validated area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of daGOAT rose steadily after transplantation and peaked at ≥0.78 in both the adult and pediatric cohorts, outperforming the two-biomarker MAGIC score, three-biomarker Ann Arbor score, peri-transplantation features-based models and XGBoost. Simulation experiments indicated that the daGOAT algorithm is well suited for short time-series scenarios where the underlying process for event generation is smooth, multidimensional and where there are frequent and irregular data missing. daGOAT's broader utility was demonstrated by performance testing on a remotely different task, that is, prediction of imminent human postural change based on smartphone inertial sensor time-series data.

A systematic review of the predicted outcomes related to hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: focus on applied machine learning methods' performance

INTRODUCTION

: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a critical therapeutic procedure in blood diseases, and the investigation of HSCT data can provide valuable information. Machine learning (ML) techniques are novel and useful data analysis tools that have been applied in many studies to predict HSCT survival and estimate the risk of transplantation.

AREAS COVERED

: A systematic review was performed with a search of PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Scopus, and the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, and the American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy publications for articles published by September 2020.

EXPERT OPINION

: After investigating the results, 24 papers that met eligibility criteria were included in this study. The applied ML algorithms with the highest performance were Random Survival Forests (AUC=0.72) for survival-related, Random Survival Forests and Logistic Regression (AUC=0.77) for mortality-related, Deep Learning (AUC=0.8) for relapse, L2-Regularized Logistic Regression (AUC=0.66) for Acute-Graft Versus Host Disease, Random Survival Forests (AUC=0.88) for sepsis, Elastic-Net Regression (AUC=0.89) for cognitive impairment, and Bayesian Network (AUC=0.997) for oral mucositis outcome. This review reveals the potential of ML techniques to predict HSCT outcomes and apply them to developing clinical decision support systems.

Establishment of a Predictive Model for GvHD-free, Relapse-free Survival after Allogeneic HSCT using Ensemble Learning

Stacked ensemble of machine-learning algorithms could establish more accurate prediction model for survival analysis than existing methods.

Stacked ensemble model can be applied to personalized prediction of HSCT outcomes from pretransplant characteristics.

Graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival (GRFS) is a useful composite end point that measures survival without relapse or significant morbidity after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). We aimed to develop a novel analytical method that appropriately handles right-censored data and competing risks to understand the risk for GRFS and each component of GRFS. This study was a retrospective data-mining study on a cohort of 2207 adult patients who underwent their first allo-HSCT within the Kyoto Stem Cell Transplantation Group, a multi-institutional joint research group of 17 transplantation centers in Japan. The primary end point was GRFS. A stacked ensemble of Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) regression and 7 machine-learning algorithms was applied to develop a prediction model. The median age for the patients was 48 years. For GRFS, the stacked ensemble model achieved better predictive accuracy evaluated by C-index than other state-of-the-art competing risk models (ensemble model: 0.670; Cox-PH: 0.668; Random Survival Forest: 0.660; Dynamic DeepHit: 0.646). The probability of GRFS after 2 years was 30.54% for the high-risk group and 40.69% for the low-risk group (hazard ratio compared with the low-risk group: 2.127; 95% CI, 1.19-3.80). We developed a novel predictive model for survival analysis that showed superior risk stratification to existing methods using a stacked ensemble of multiple machine-learning algorithms.

Accurate classification of plasma cell dyscrasias is achieved by combining artificial intelligence and flow cytometry

Monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significance (MGUS), smouldering multiple myeloma (SMM), and multiple myeloma (MM) are very common neoplasms. However, it is often difficult to distinguish between these entities. In the present study, we aimed to classify the most powerful markers that could improve diagnosis by multiparametric flow cytometry (MFC). The present study included 348 patients based on two independent cohorts. We first assessed how representative the data were in the discovery cohort (123 MM, 97 MGUS) and then analysed their respective plasma cell (PC) phenotype in order to obtain a set of correlations with a hypersphere visualisation. Cluster of differentiation (CD)27 and CD38 were differentially expressed in MGUS and MM (P < 0·001). We found by a gradient boosting machine method that the percentage of abnormal PCs and the ratio PC/CD117 positive precursors were the most influential parameters at diagnosis to distinguish MGUS and MM. Finally, we designed a decisional algorithm allowing a predictive classification ≥95% when PC dyscrasias were suspected, without any misclassification between MGUS and SMM. We validated this algorithm in an independent cohort of PC dyscrasias (n = 87 MM, n = 41 MGUS). This artificial intelligence model is freely available online as a diagnostic tool application website for all MFC centers worldwide (https://aihematology.shinyapps.io/PCdyscrasiasToolDg/).

Machine learning-based scoring models to predict hematopoietic stem cell mobilization in allogeneic donors

Mobilized peripheral blood has become the primary source of hematopoietic stem cells for both autologous and allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor (G-CSF) is currently the standard agent used in the allogeneic setting. Despite the high mobilization efficacy in most donors, G-CSF requires 4-5 days of daily administration, and a small percentage of the donors fail to mobilize an optimal number of stem cells necessary for a safe allogeneic stem cell transplant. In this study, we retrospectively reviewed 1361 related allogeneic donors who underwent stem cell mobilization at Washington University. We compared the standard mobilization agent G-CSF with five alternative mobilization regimens, including GM-CSF, G-CSF+GM-CSF, GM-CSF + Plerixafor, Plerixafor and BL-8040. Cytokine-based mobilization strategies (G-CSF or in combination with GM-CSF) induce higher CD34 cell yield after 4-5 consecutive days of treatment, while CXCR4 antagonists (plerixafor and BL-8040) induce significantly less but rapid mobilization on the same day. Next, using a large dataset containing the demographic and baseline laboratory data from G-CSF-mobilized donors, we established machine learning (ML)-based scoring models that can be used to predict patients who may have less than optimal stem cell yields after a single leukapheresis session. To our knowledge, this is the first prediction model at the early donor screening stage, which may help identify allogeneic stem cell donors who may benefit from alternative approaches to enhance stem cell yields thus insuring safe and effective stem cell transplantation.

An Intelligent Clinical Decision Support System for Predicting Acute Graft-versus-host Disease (aGvHD) following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

Background:

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is a complex and often multisystem disease that causes morbidity and mortality in 35% of patients receiving allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT).

Objective:

This study aimed to implement a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for predicting aGvHD following AHSCT on the transplantation day.

Material and Methods:

In this developmental study, the data of 182 patients with 31 attributes, which referred to Taleghani Hospital Tehran, Iran during 2009–2017, were analyzed by machine learning (ML) algorithms which included XGBClassifier, HistGradientBoostingClassifier, AdaBoostClassifier, and RandomForestClassifier. The criteria measurement used to evaluate these algorithms included accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Using the machine learning developed model, a CDSS was implemented. The performance of the CDSS was evaluated by Cohen’s Kappa coefficient.

Results:

Of the 31 included variables, albumin, uric acid, C-reactive protein, donor age, platelet, lactate Dehydrogenase, and Hemoglobin were identified as the most important predictors. The two algorithms XGBClassifier and HistGradientBoostingClassifier with an average accuracy of 90.70%, sensitivity of 92.5%, and specificity of 89.13% were selected as the most appropriate ML models for predicting aGvHD. The agreement between CDSS prediction and patient outcome was 92%.

Conclusion:

ML methods can reliably predict the likelihood of aGvHD at the time of transplantation. These methods can help us to limit the number of risk factors to those that have significant effects on the outcome. However, their performance is heavily dependent on selecting the appropriate methods and algorithms. The next generations of CDSS may use more and more machine learning approaches.

Interactive Web Application for Plotting Personalized Prognosis Prediction Curves in Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Using Machine Learning

BACKGROUND

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is a curative treatment option for malignant hematological disorders. Transplant clinicians estimate patient-specific prognosis empirically in clinical practice based on previous studies on similar patients. However, this approach does not provide objective data. The present study primarily aimed to develop a tool capable of providing accurate personalized prognosis prediction after allo-HCT in an objective manner.

METHODS

We developed an interactive web application tool with a graphical user interface capable of plotting the personalized survival and cumulative incidence prediction curves after allo-HCT adjusted by 8 patient-specific factors, which are known as prognostic predictors, and assessed their predictive performances. A random survival forest model using the data of patients who underwent allo-HCT at our institution was applied to develop this application.

RESULTS

We succeeded in showing the personalized prognosis prediction curves of 1-year overall survival, progression-free survival, relapse/progression, and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) interactively using our web application (https://predicted-os-after-transplantation.shinyapps.io/RSF_model/). To assess its predictive performance, the entire cohort (363 cases) was split into a training cohort (70%) and a test cohort (30%) time-sequentially based on the patients' transplant dates. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for 1-year overall survival, progression-free survival, relapse/progression, and nonrelapse mortality in test cohort were 0.70, 0.72, 0.73, and 0.77, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The new web application could allow transplant clinicians to inform a new allo-HCT candidate of the objective personalized prognosis prediction and facilitate decision-making.

Predicting Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease Using Machine Learning and Longitudinal Vital Sign Data From Electronic Health Records

PURPOSE

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) remains a significant complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) and limits its broader application. The ability to predict grade II to IV aGVHD could potentially mitigate morbidity and mortality. To date, researchers have focused on using snapshots of a patient (eg, biomarkers at a single time point) to predict aGVHD onset. We hypothesized that longitudinal data collected and stored in electronic health records (EHRs) could distinguish patients at high risk of developing aGVHD from those at low risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included a cohort of 324 patients undergoing allogeneic HCT at the University of Michigan C.S. Mott Children’s Hospital during 2014 to 2017. Using EHR data, specifically vital sign measurements collected within the first 10 days of transplantation, we built a predictive model using penalized logistic regression for identifying patients at risk for grade II to IV aGVHD. We compared the proposed model with a baseline model trained only on patient and donor characteristics collected at the time of transplantation and performed an analysis of the importance of different input features.

RESULTS

The proposed model outperformed the baseline model, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.659 versus 0.512 (P = .019). The feature importance analysis showed that the learned model relied most on temperature and systolic blood pressure, and temporal trends (eg, increasing or decreasing) were more important than the average values.

CONCLUSION

Leveraging readily available clinical data from EHRs, we developed a machine-learning model for aGVHD prediction in patients undergoing HCT. Continuous monitoring of vital signs, such as temperature, could potentially help clinicians more accurately identify patients at high risk for aGVHD.

Cell therapy in Huntington's disease: Taking stock of past studies to move the field forward

Huntington's disease (HD) is a rare inherited neurodegenerative disease that manifests mostly in adulthood with progressive cognitive, behavioral, and motor dysfunction. Neuronal loss occurs predominantly in the striatum but also extends to other brain regions, notably the cortex. Most patients die around 20 years after motor onset, although there is variability in the rate of progression and some phenotypic heterogeneity. The most advanced experimental therapies currently are huntingtin-lowering strategies, some of which are in stage 3 clinical trials. However, even if these approaches are successful, it is unlikely that they will be applicable to all patients or will completely halt continued loss of neural cells in all cases. On the other hand, cellular therapies have the potential to restore atrophied tissues and may therefore provide an important complementary therapeutic avenue. Pilot studies of fetal cell grafts in the 2000s reported the most dramatic clinical improvements yet achieved for this disease, but subsequent studies have so far failed to identify methodology to reliably reproduce these results. Moving forward, a major challenge will be to generate suitable donor cells from (nonfetal) cell sources, but in parallel there are a host of procedural and trial design issues that will be important for improving reliability of transplants and so urgently need attention. Here, we consider findings that have emerged from clinical transplant studies in HD to date, in particular new findings emerging from the recent multicenter intracerebral transplant HD study, and consider how these data may be used to inform future cell therapy trials.

Artificial Intelligence in Hematology: Current Challenges and Opportunities

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Artificial intelligence (AI), and in particular its subcategory machine learning, is finding an increasing number of applications in medicine, driven in large part by an abundance of data and powerful, accessible tools that have made AI accessible to a larger circle of investigators.

RECENT FINDINGS

AI has been employed in the analysis of hematopathological, radiographic, laboratory, genomic, pharmacological, and chemical data to better inform diagnosis, prognosis, treatment planning, and foundational knowledge related to benign and malignant hematology. As more widespread implementation of clinical AI nears, attention has also turned to the effects this will have on other areas in medicine. AI offers many promising tools to clinicians broadly, and specifically in the practice of hematology. Ongoing research into its various applications will likely result in an increasing utilization of AI by a broader swath of clinicians.

Application of machine learning in the management of acute myeloid leukemia: current practice and future prospects

Machine learning (ML) is rapidly emerging in several fields of cancer research. ML algorithms can deal with vast amounts of medical data and provide a better understanding of malignant disease. Its ability to process information from different diagnostic modalities and functions to predict prognosis and suggest therapeutic strategies indicates that ML is a promising tool for the future management of hematologic malignancies; acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a model disease of various recent studies. An integration of these ML techniques into various applications in AML management can assure fast and accurate diagnosis as well as precise risk stratification and optimal therapy. Nevertheless, these techniques come with various pitfalls and need a strict regulatory framework to ensure safe use of ML. This comprehensive review highlights and discusses recent advances in ML techniques in the management of AML as a model disease of hematologic neoplasms, enabling researchers and clinicians alike to critically evaluate this upcoming, potentially practice-changing technology.

A Systematic Review of Machine Learning Techniques in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT)

Machine learning techniques are widely used nowadays in the healthcare domain for the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of diseases. These techniques have applications in the field of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), which is a potentially curative therapy for hematological malignancies. Herein, a systematic review of the application of machine learning (ML) techniques in the HCT setting was conducted. We examined the type of data streams included, specific ML techniques used, and type of clinical outcomes measured. A systematic review of English articles using PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and IEEE Xplore databases was performed. Search terms included "hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT)," "autologous HCT," "allogeneic HCT," "machine learning," and "artificial intelligence." Only full-text studies reported between January 2015 and July 2020 were included. Data were extracted by two authors using predefined data fields. Following PRISMA guidelines, a total of 242 studies were identified, of which 27 studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies were sub-categorized into three broad topics and the type of ML techniques used included ensemble learning (63%), regression (44%), Bayesian learning (30%), and support vector machine (30%). The majority of studies examined models to predict HCT outcomes (e.g., survival, relapse, graft-versus-host disease). Clinical and genetic data were the most commonly used predictors in the modeling process. Overall, this review provided a systematic review of ML techniques applied in the context of HCT. The evidence is not sufficiently robust to determine the optimal ML technique to use in the HCT setting and/or what minimal data variables are required.

Machine learning and artificial intelligence in haematology

Digitalization of the medical record and integration of genomic methods into clinical practice have resulted in an unprecedented wealth of data. Machine learning is a subdomain of artificial intelligence that attempts to computationally extract meaningful insights from complex data structures. Applications of machine learning in haematological scenarios are steadily increasing. However, basic concepts are often unfamiliar to clinicians and investigators. The purpose of this review is to provide readers with tools to interpret and critically appraise machine learning literature. We begin with the elucidation of standard terminology and then review examples in haematology. Guidelines for designing and evaluating machine-learning studies are provided. Finally, we discuss limitations of the machine-learning approach.

Biomarkers for Allogeneic HCT Outcomes

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) remains the only curative therapy for many hematological malignant and non-malignant disorders. However, key obstacles to the success of HCT include graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and disease relapse due to absence of graft-versus-tumor (GVT) effect. Over the last decade, advances in "omics" technologies and systems biology analysis, have allowed for the discovery and validation of blood biomarkers that can be used as diagnostic test and prognostic test (that risk-stratify patients before disease occurrence) for acute and chronic GVHD and recently GVT. There are also predictive biomarkers that categorize patients based on their likely to respond to therapy. Newer mathematical analysis such as machine learning is able to identify different predictors of GVHD using clinical characteristics pre-transplant and possibly in the future combined with other biomarkers. Biomarkers are not only useful to identify patients with higher risk of disease progression, but also help guide treatment decisions and/or provide a basis for specific therapeutic interventions. This review summarizes biomarkers definition, omics technologies, acute, chronic GVHD and GVT biomarkers currently used in clinic or with potential as targets for existing or new drugs focusing on novel published work.