Epidemiology of the avian influenza A (H7N9) outbreak in Zhejiang Province, China

Ocular manifestations of recent viral pandemics: A literature review

Viral pandemics often take the world by storm, urging the medical community to prioritize the most evident systemic manifestations, often causing ocular manifestations to go unnoticed. This literature review highlights the ocular complications of the Monkeypox, SARS-CoV-2, MERS, Ebola, H1N1, and Zika viruses as the most recent viral pandemics. Research into the effects of these pandemics began immediately. Moreover, it also discusses the ocular complications of the vaccines and treatments that were used in the scope of the viral pandemics. Additionally, this review discusses the role of the eye as an important route of viral transmission, and thereafter, the International recommendations to reduce the incidence of viral transmission were mentioned. Lastly, this paper wants to lay out a platform for researchers who want to learn more about how viruses show up in the eye.

SINS model in the management of biosafety level 2 laboratories: exploration and practice

A significant number of biosafety level 2 (BSL-2) laboratories have been established in many countries for studies of various types of pathogenic agents and other infectious biological materials. The harmonized management of biological risks in such diverse laboratories thus appears as a real challenge. Zhejiang Province in China has taken the initiative to establish a comprehensively integrated laboratory biosafety management system called SINS (Standardization, Informatization, Normalization and Systematization). The SINS model system has been introduced and adopted in 1,721 BSL-2 laboratories in Zhejiang Province, and thus lead to an increase in the number of biosafety committees from 20% to more than 95% from 2007 to 2018, and the number of biosafety laboratory managers who knows biosafety-related laws and regulations increase from 52.7% to 83.7% from 2009 to 2017. Such achievements indicate that the successful implementation of SINS model has increased the effective control of biological risks in BSL-2 laboratories of the Zhejiang Province. SINS model and its main effects on leading the improvement of laboratory biosafety management was presented in this review. The SINS model helps to strengthen laboratory biosafety and thus effectively reduces occurrence of biosafety-related incidences. This model can potentially be used by other regions or countries where harmonized biosafety management system is still under-developing.

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Zhejiang Province in China took the lead in establishing a comprehensive integrated management system of laboratory biosafety called SINS.

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The SINS model contains Standardization,Informatization, Normalization and Systematization.

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The SINS model can combine the technical with management to strengthen the laboratory biosafety management, and effectively avoid the occurrence of bio-risk.

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SINS model presented in this paper is aimed to cover all aspects in the biosafety management in BSL2 laboratories, consisting of such elements as policy development, administrative supervision, systematic training, documentation and information management.

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SINS model constructed on good experiences in other provinces, serves as a tool for analyzing, checking, and evaluating laboratory management in China.

Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China: A Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology Analysis

Nowadays, tuberculosis, scarlet fever, measles, influenza, and mumps are five major notifiable respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) in China. The objective of this study was to describe, visualize, and compare the spatial-temporal distributions of these five RIDs from 2006 to 2016. In addition to descriptive epidemiology analysis, seasonality and spatial autocorrelation analysis were also applied to explore the epidemiologic trends and spatial changing patterns of the five RIDs, respectively. The results indicated that the incidence of tuberculosis, measles, and mumps presented a downtrend trend, while those of scarlet fever and influenza was in a strong uptrend across the research period. The incidences of the five diseases all peaked in spring. There were significant spatial disparities in the distribution of tuberculosis, scarlet fever, and measles cases, with the hotspots mainly located in the western plateau region, northern plain region, and southern mountainous region. To conclude, notable epidemiological differences were observed across regions, indicating that some provincial units should pay more attention to prevent and control respiratory infectious diseases.

Research progress on human infection with avian influenza H7N9

Since the first case of novel H7N9 infection was reported, China has experienced five epidemics of H7N9. During the fifth wave, a highly pathogenic H7N9 strain emerged. Meanwhile, the H7N9 virus continues to accumulate mutations, and its affinity for the human respiratory epithelial sialic acid 2–6 receptor has increased. Therefore, a pandemic is still possible. In the past 6 years, we have accumulated rich experience in dealing with H7N9, especially in terms of virus tracing, epidemiological research, key site mutation monitoring, critical disease mechanisms, clinical treatment, and vaccine development. In the research fields above, significant progress has been made to effectively control the spread of the epidemic and reduce the fatality rate. To fully document the research progress concerning H7N9, we reviewed the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of H7N9, the key gene mutations of the virus, and H7N9 vaccine, thus providing a scientific basis for further monitoring and prevention of H7N9 influenza epidemics.

Induction of PGRN by influenza virus inhibits the antiviral immune responses through downregulation of type I interferons signaling

Type I interferons (IFNs) play a critical role in host defense against influenza virus infection, and the mechanism of influenza virus to evade type I IFNs responses remains to be fully understood. Here, we found that progranulin (PGRN) was significantly increased both in vitro and in vivo during influenza virus infection. Using a PGRN knockdown assay and PGRN-deficient mice model, we demonstrated that influenza virus-inducing PGRN negatively regulated type I IFNs production by inhibiting the activation of NF-κB and IRF3 signaling. Furthermore, we showed that PGRN directly interacted with NF-κB essential modulator (NEMO) via its Grn CDE domains. We also verified that PGRN recruited A20 to deubiquitinate K63-linked polyubiquitin chains on NEMO at K264. In addition, we found that macrophage played a major source of PGRN during influenza virus infection, and PGRN neutralizing antibodies could protect against influenza virus-induced lethality in mice. Our data identify a PGRN-mediated IFN evasion pathway exploited by influenza virus with implication in antiviral applications. These findings also provide insights into the functions and crosstalk of PGRN in innate immunity.

The innate immune system is the first line of host defense against microbial infection, while viruses develop several strategies to evade the host defense. It is of great significance to explore the mechanism by which viruses to evade the antiviral host defense. Previous studies have found that progranulin (PGRN) plays an important role in a variety of physiologic and disease processes. Here, we demonstrated that PGRN induced by influenza virus negatively regulated type I IFN production by inhibiting the activation of NF-κB and IRF3 signaling. We further showed that PGRN directly interacted with NEMO via its Grn CDE domains and recruited A20 to deubiquitinate K63-linked polyubiquitin chains on NEMO. Macrophage played a major source of PGRN during influenza virus infection, and PGRN neutralizing antibodies could protect against influenza virus-induced lethality in mice. Our findings highlight a new strategy whereby influenza virus to evade type I IFN-mediated antiviral immune response and also provide insights into the functions and crosstalk of PGRN in innate immunity.

Low awareness of influenza vaccination among pregnant women and their obstetricians: a population-based survey in Beijing, China

We assessed how an awareness of influenza vaccination might influence both the willingness of pregnant women to be vaccinated and the readiness of obstetricians to recommend antenatal influenza vaccination in Beijing, China. From March to April 2016, we surveyed pregnant women who were attending antenatal clinics at eight hospitals in Beijing, along with obstetricians at the same clinics. Demographic, attitudinal, and behavioral information regarding influenza vaccination were collected using structured questionnaires. Consent and completed questionnaires were obtained from 988 of 1009 pregnant women and 165 of 173 obstetricians. Only 113 (11.4%) pregnant women reported being willing to receive an influenza vaccine during their pregnancies. Willingness to receive an influenza vaccination was positively associated with ever having a history of vaccination or influenza (aOR=6.74, 95%CI: 1.72-26.4, P=0.006), perceiving benefits of vaccination (aOR=1.67, 95%CI: 1.00-2.79, P=0.050), and having a higher level of influenza knowledge (aOR=82.2, 95%CI: 21.7-311.1, P<0.001). Among obstetricians, only 19.4% reported being willing to recommend influenza vaccination to their pregnant patients and 15.2% reported knowledge that influenza vaccination during pregnancy was recommended by China's National Health Commission. Neither pregnant women nor their obstetricians were aware of Chinese government recommendations that antenatal influenza vaccination should be encouraged and provided. Pregnant women and their obstetricians were ill-informed of the relevant evidence. It is in emergent need to train and disseminate the updated evidence on influenza vaccination to obstetricians. It also warranted more high-quality trials regarding influenza vaccination during pregnancy to address public concern.

Avian H5N1 influenza virus infection causes severe pneumonia in the Northern tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri)

Avian-origin influenza viruses like H5N1 and H7N9 often cause severe symptoms with high mortality in humans. Animal models are useful for clarification of the mechanisms of pathogenicity of these infections. In this study, to expand the potential utility of the Northern tree shrew (Tupaia belangeri) for influenza virus infection, we assessed the pathogenicity of H5N1 and H7N9 avian influenza viruses in tupaia. Infectious virus was detected continuously from nasal, oral, tracheal, and conjunctival swab samples in the animals infected with these viruses. H5N1 influenza virus infection of tupaia caused severe diffuse pneumonia with fever and weight loss. In contrast, H7N9 influenza virus infection caused focal pneumonia. The severity of pneumonia was correlated with proinflammatory cytokine transcript levels. These results indicated that tupaia can be another suitable animal model for avian influenza virus research.

A consensus-hemagglutinin-based vaccine delivered by an attenuated Salmonella mutant protects chickens against heterologous H7N1 influenza virus

H7N3 and H7N7 are highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses and have posed a great threat not only for the poultry industry but for the human health as well. H7N9, a low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus, is also highly pathogenic to humans, and there is a great concern that these H7 subtypes would acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, thereby becoming a pandemic threat. A vaccine candidate covering all the three subtypes must, therefore, be an integral part of any pandemic preparedness plan. To address this need, we constructed a consensus hemagglutinin (HA) sequence of H7N3, H7N7, and H7N9 based on the data available in the NCBI in early 2012-2015. This artificial sequence was then optimized for protein expression before being transformed into an attenuated auxotrophic mutant of Salmonella Typhimurium, JOL1863 strain. Immunizing chickens with JOL1863, delivered intramuscularly, nasally or orally, elicited efficient humoral and cell mediated immune responses, independently of the route of vaccination. Our results also showed that JOL1863 deliver efficient maturation signals to chicken monocyte derived dendritic cells (MoDCs) which were characterized by upregulation of costimulatory molecules and higher cytokine induction. Moreover, immunization with JOL1863 in chickens conferred a significant protection against the heterologous LPAI H7N1 virus challenge as indicated by reduced viral sheddings in the cloacal swabs. We conclude that this vaccine, based on a consensus HA, could induce broader spectrum of protection against divergent H7 influenza viruses and thus warrants further study.

An increasing trend of rural infections of human influenza A (H7N9) from 2013 to 2017: A retrospective analysis of patient exposure histories in Zhejiang province, China

BACKGROUND

Although investigations have shown that closing live poultry markets (LPMs) is highly effective in controlling human influenza A (H7N9) infections, many of the urban LPMs were shut down, but rural LPMs remained open. This study aimed to compare the proportional changes between urban and rural infections in the Zhejiang province from 2013 to 2017 by analyzing the exposure histories of human cases.

METHODS

All laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 from 2013 (the first wave) to 2017 (the fifth wave) in the Zhejiang province of China were analyzed. Urban and rural infections were defined based on the locations of poultry exposure (direct and indirect) in urban areas (central towns) and rural areas (towns and villages on the outskirts of cities). A Chi-square trend test was used to compare the proportional trend between urban and rural infections over time and logistic regression was used to obtain the odds ratio by years.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2017, a statistically significant trend in rural infections was observed (p <0.01). The incremental odds ratio by years of rural infections was 1.59 with 95% confidence intervals of 1.34 to 1.86. Each year, significant increases in the proportion of live poultry transactions in LPMS and poultry processing plants were detected in conjunction with an increased proportion of urban and rural infections.

CONCLUSION

The empirical evidence indicated a need for heightened infection control measures in rural areas, such as serving rural farms and backyards as active surveillance points for the H7N9 virus. Other potential interventions such as the vaccination of poultry and extending the closure of LPMs to the provincial level require further careful investigations.

Epidemiological and genetic characteristics of the fifth avian influenza A(H7N9) wave in Suzhou, China, from October 2016 to April 2017

Human infections with H7N9 viruses can cause severe pneumonia and even death. To characterize the epidemiology and genetics of the H7N9 viruses circulating during from October 2016 to April 2017 in Suzhou, China, all pharyngeal swab samples were collected from severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) cases during this fifth wave of infection, and we amplified the H7N9 H7 and N9 genes using a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Positive samples were subjected to virus isolation and gene sequencing to analyze the evolution and variation of the H7N9 strains. The epidemiological features of H7N9 patients have not changed and there were no significant mutations in the key sites of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequence, but we identified the K526R and E627 K substitutions in the PB2 protein. In the neuraminidase (NA) protein, drug-resistant mutations (R294 K and H276Y) occurred in a few strains. Most of the H7N9 viruses isolated from Suzhou had no drug resistance mutations, but it is necessary to closely monitor and analyze the probable emergence of mutations and the spread of resistant strains. The reduction of the N-glycosylation site at position 42 of NA was observed in some strains.

Oral immunization with a novel attenuated Salmonella Typhimurium encoding influenza HA, M2e and NA antigens protects chickens against H7N9 infection

Attenuated Salmonella strains constitute a promising technology for the development of efficient protein-based influenza vaccines. H7N9, a low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus, is a major public health concern and currently there are no effective vaccines against this subtype. Herein, we constructed a novel attenuated Salmonella Typhimurium strain for the delivery and expression of H7N9 hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA) or the conserved extracellular domain of the matrix protein 2 (M2e). We demonstrated that the constructed Salmonella strains exhibited efficient HA, NA and M2e expressions, respectively, and the constructs were safe and immunogenic in chickens. Our results showed that chickens immunized once orally with Salmonella (Sal) mutants encoding HA (Sal-HA), M2e (Sal-M2e) or NA (Sal-NA), administered either alone or in combination, induced both antigen-specific humoral and cell mediated immune (CMI) responses, and protected chickens against the lethal H7N9 challenge. However, chickens immunized with Sal-HA+Sal-M2e+Sal-NA vaccine constructs exhibited efficient mucosal and CMI responses compared to the chickens that received only Sal-HA, Sal-M2e or Sal-M2e+Sal-NA vaccine. Further, chickens immunized with Sal-HA+Sal-M2e+Sal-NA constructs cleared H7N9 infection at a faster rate compared to the chickens that were vaccinated with Sal-HA, Sal-M2e or Sal-M2e+Sal-NA, as indicated by the reduced viral shedding in cloacal swabs of the immunized chickens. We conclude that this vaccination strategy, based on HA, M2e and NA, stimulated efficient induction of immune protection against the lethal H7N9 LPAI virus and, therefore, further studies are warranted to develop this approach as a potential prophylaxis against LPAI viruses affecting poultry birds.

Assessing the reporting quality of influenza outbreaks in the community

BACKGROUND

High-quality reporting of outbreak characteristics is fundamental to understand the behaviour of various strains of influenza virus and the impact of outbreak management strategies. However, few studies have systematically evaluated the quality of outbreak reporting.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a systematic analysis and assessment for reporting quality of influenza outbreaks based on a modified version of the STROBE statement, and to examine characteristics associated with reporting quality.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted across 3 online databases (PubMed, Web of Science, MEDLINE) for reports of influenza outbreaks (pandemic H1N1, avian, seasonal). The quality of reports meeting our eligibility criteria was assessed using the Modified STROBE criteria and assigned a score of 30. Mean differences (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported for comparisons of study characteristics.

RESULTS

Sixty-four outbreak reports were available for analyses. The average Modified STROBE score was 20/30. Peer-reviewed articles were associated with a better quality of reporting (MD 2.79, 95% CI 0.79-4.78). Likewise, reports from authors affiliated with public health agencies were associated with better quality than those from academic institutions (MD 1.65, 95% CI-0.27-3.56).

CONCLUSIONS

The development of explicit reporting guidelines specifically geared towards reporting of outbreak investigations proved to be useful. Providing information on patient characteristics, investigation details in introduction and results, as well as addressing limitations that could have biased the findings, were frequently missing in the published reports.

Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014

BACKGROUND

A large number (n = 460) of A(H7N9) human infections have been reported in China from March 2013 through December 2014, and H7N9 outbreaks in humans became an emerging issue for China health, which have caused numerous disease outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations, and threatened human health severely. The aims of this study were to investigate the directional trend of the epidemic and to identify the significant presence of spatial-temporal clustering of influenza A(H7N9) human cases between March 2013 and December 2014.

METHODS

Three distinct epidemic phases of A(H7N9) human infections were identified in this study. In each phase, standard deviational ellipse analysis was conducted to examine the directional trend of disease spreading, and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was then used to identify the spatio-temporal cluster patterns of H7N9 outbreaks in humans.

RESULTS

The ever-changing location and the increasing size of the three identified standard deviational ellipses showed that the epidemic moved from east to southeast coast, and hence to some central regions, with a future epidemiological trend of continue dispersing to more central regions of China, and a few new human cases might also appear in parts of the western China. Furthermore, A(H7N9) human infections were clustering in space and time in the first two phases with five significant spatio-temporal clusters (p < 0.05), but there was no significant cluster identified in phase III.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a new epidemiologic pattern that the decrease in significant spatio-temporal cluster of A(H7N9) human infections was accompanied with an obvious spatial expansion of the outbreaks during the study period, and identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic can provide valuable insights for better understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease in China.

Clusters of Human Infections With Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus in China, March 2013 to June 2015

Multiple clusters of human infections with novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have occurred since the virus was first identified in spring 2013. However, in many situations it is unclear whether these clusters result from person-to-person transmission or exposure to a common infectious source. We analyzed the possibility of person-to-person transmission in each cluster and developed a framework to assess the likelihood that person-to-person transmission had occurred. We described 21 clusters with 22 infected contact cases that were identified by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from March 2013 through June 2015. Based on detailed epidemiological information and the timing of the contact case patients' exposures to infected persons and to poultry during their potential incubation period, we graded the likelihood of person-to-person transmission as probable, possible, or unlikely. We found that person-to-person transmission probably occurred 12 times and possibly occurred 4 times; it was unlikely in 6 clusters. Probable nosocomial transmission is likely to have occurred in 2 clusters. Limited person-to-person transmission is likely to have occurred on multiple occasions since the H7N9 virus was first identified. However, these transmission events represented a small fraction of all identified cases of H7N9 human infection, and sustained person-to-person transmission was not documented.

Review of Nonfoodborne Zoonotic and Potentially Zoonotic Poultry Diseases

Emerging and re-emerging diseases are continuously diagnosed in poultry species. A few of these diseases are known to cross the species barrier, thus posing a public health risk and an economic burden. We identified and synthesized global evidence for poultry nonfoodborne zoonoses to better understand these diseases in people who were exposed to different poultry-related characteristics (e.g., occupational or nonoccupational, operational types, poultry species, outbreak conditions, health status of flocks). This review builds on current knowledge on poultry zoonoses/potentially zoonotic agents transmitted via the nonfoodborne route. It also identifies research gaps and potential intervention points within the poultry industry to reduce zoonotic transmission by using various knowledge synthesis tools such as systematic review (SR) and qualitative (descriptive) and quantitative synthesis methods (i.e., meta-analysis). Overall, 1663 abstracts were screened and 156 relevant articles were selected for further review. Full articles (in English) were retrieved and critically appraised using routine SR methods. In total, eight known zoonotic diseases were reviewed: avian influenza (AI) virus (n = 85 articles), Newcastle disease virus (n = 8), West Nile virus (WNV, n = 2), avian Chlamydia (n = 24), Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae (n = 3), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, n = 15), Ornithonyssus sylvarium (n = 4), and Microsporum gallinae (n = 3). In addition, articles on other viral poultry pathogens (n = 5) and poultry respiratory allergens derived from mites and fungi (n = 7) were reviewed. The level of investigations (e.g., exposure history, risk factor, clinical disease in epidemiologically linked poultry, molecular studies) to establish zoonotic linkages varied across disease agents and across studies. Based on the multiple outcome measures captured in this review, AI virus seems to be the poultry zoonotic pathogen that may have considerable and significant public health consequences; however, epidemiologic reports have only documented severe human cases clustered in Asia and not in North America. In contrast, avian Chlamydia and MRSA reports clustered mainly in Europe and less so in North America and other regions. Knowledge gaps in other zoonoses or other agents were identified, including potential direct (i.e., nonmosquito-borne) transmission of WNV from flocks to poultry workers, the public health and clinical significance of poultry-derived (livestock-associated) MRSA, the zoonotic significance of other viruses, and the role of poultry allergens in the pathophysiology of respiratory diseases of poultry workers. Across all pathogens reviewed, the use of personal protective equipment was commonly cited as the most important preventive measure to reduce the zoonotic spread of these diseases and the use of biosecurity measures to reduce horizontal transmission in flock populations. The studies also emphasized the need for flock monitoring and an integrated approach to prevention (i.e., veterinary-public health coordination with regard to diagnosis, and knowledge translation and education in the general population) to reduce zoonotic transmission.

Epidemiological Risk Factors for Animal Influenza A Viruses Overcoming Species Barriers

Drivers and risk factors for Influenza A virus transmission across species barriers are poorly understood, despite the ever present threat to human and animal health potentially on a pandemic scale. Here we review the published evidence for epidemiological risk factors associated with influenza viruses transmitting between animal species and from animals to humans. A total of 39 papers were found with evidence of epidemiological risk factors for influenza virus transmission from animals to humans; 18 of which had some statistical measure associated with the transmission of a virus. Circumstantial or observational evidence of risk factors for transmission between animal species was found in 21 papers, including proximity to infected animals, ingestion of infected material and potential association with a species known to carry influenza virus. Only three publications were found which presented a statistical measure of an epidemiological risk factor for the transmission of influenza between animal species. This review has identified a significant gap in knowledge regarding epidemiological risk factors for the transmission of influenza viruses between animal species.

Risk factors for avian influenza virus contamination of live poultry markets in Zhejiang, China during the 2015-2016 human influenza season

Live bird markets (LBMs), being a potential source of avian influenza virus, require effective environmental surveillance management. In our study, a total of 2865 environmental samples were collected from 292 LBMs during the 2015–2016 human influenza season from 10 cities in Zhejiang province, China. The samples were tested by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Field investigations were carried out to investigate probable risk factors. Of the environmental samples, 1519 (53.0%) were contaminated by A subtype. The highest prevalence of the H9 subtype was 30.2%, and the frequencies of the H5 and H7 subtype were 9.3% and 17.3%, respectively. Hangzhou and Jinhua cities were contaminated more seriously than the others. The prevalence of H5/H7/H9 in drinking water samples was highest, at 50.9%, and chopping board swabs ranked second, at 49.3%. Duration of sales per day, types of live poultry, LBM location and the number of live poultry were the main risk factors for environmental contamination, according to logistic regression analysis. In conclusion, LBMs in Zhejiang were contaminated by avian influenza. Our study has provided clues for avian influenza prevention and control during the human influenza season, especially in areas where LBMs are not closed.

Estimating Risks of Inapparent Avian Exposure for Human Infection: Avian Influenza Virus A (H7N9) in Zhejiang Province, China

Inapparent avian exposure was suspected for the sporadic infection of avian influenza A(H7N9) occurring in China. This type of exposure is usually unnoticed and difficult to model and measure. Infected poultry with avian influenza H7N9 virus typically remains asymptomatic, which may facilitate infection through inapparent poultry/bird exposure, especially in a country with widespread practice of backyard poultry. The present study proposed a novel approach that integrated ecological and case-control methods to quantify the risk of inapparent avian exposure on human H7N9 infection. Significant associations of the infection with chicken and goose densities, but not with duck density, were identified after adjusting for spatial clustering effects of the H7N9 cases across multiple geographic scales of neighborhood, community, district and city levels. These exposure risks varied geographically in association with proximity to rivers and lakes that were also proxies for inapparent exposure to avian-related environment. Males, elderly people, and farmers were high-risk subgroups for the virus infection. These findings enable health officials to target educational programs and awareness training in specific locations to reduce the risks of inapparent exposure.

An extract from Taxodium distichum targets hemagglutinin- and neuraminidase-related activities of influenza virus in vitro

Influenza virus remains an emerging virus and causes pandemics with high levels of fatality. After screening different plant extracts with potential anti-influenza activity, a water extract of Taxodium distichum stems (TDSWex) showed excellent activity against influenza viruses. The EC₅₀ of TDSWex was 0.051 ± 0.024 mg/mL against influenza virus A/WSN/33. TDSWex had excellent antiviral efficacy against various strains of human influenza A and B viruses, particularly oseltamivir-resistant clinical isolates and a swine-origin influenza strain. We observed that the synthesis of viral RNA and protein were inhibited in the presence of TDSWex. The results of the time-of-addition assay suggested that TDSWex inhibited viral entry and budding. In the hemagglutination inhibition assay, TDSWex inhibited the hemagglutination of red blood cells, implying that the extract targeted hemagglutin-related functions such as viral entry. In the attachment and penetration assay, TDSWex showed antiviral activity with EC₅₀s of 0.045 ± 0.026 and 0.012 ± 0.003 mg/mL, respectively. In addition, TDSWex blocked neuraminidase activity. We conclude that TDSWex has bimodal activities against both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase during viral replication.

Quantified degree of poultry exposure differs for human cases of avian influenza H5N1 and H7N9

Preliminary evidence suggests that direct poultry contact may play a lesser role in transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9) than A(H5N1) to humans. To better understand differences in risk factors, we quantified the degree of poultry contact reported by H5N1 and H7N9 World Health Organization-confirmed cases. We used publicly available data to classify cases by their degree of poultry contact, including direct and indirect. To account for potential data limitations, we used two methods: (1) case population method in which all cases were classified using a range of sources; and (2) case subset method in which only cases with detailed contact information from published research literature were classified. In the case population, detailed exposure information was unavailable for a large proportion of cases (H5N1, 54%; H7N9, 86%). In the case subset, direct contact proportions were higher in H5N1 cases (70·3%) than H7N9 cases (40·0%) (χ 2 = 18·5, P < 0·001), and indirect contact proportions were higher in H7N9 cases (44·6%) than H5N1 cases (19·4%) (χ 2 = 15·5, P < 0·001). Together with emerging evidence, our descriptive analysis suggests direct poultry contact is a clearer risk factor for H5N1 than for H7N9, and that other risk factors should also be considered for H7N9.

Studying Associations in Health Care Research

This article discusses some of the types of relationships observed in healthcare research and depicts them in graphic form. The article begins by explaining two basic associations observed in chemistry and physics (Boyles' Law and Charles' Law), and illustrates how these associations are similar to curvilinear and linear associations, respectively, found in healthcare. Graphs of curvilinear associations include morbidity curves and survival and mortality curves. Several examples of linear relationships are given and methods of testing linear relationships with interval and ratio data are introduced (i.e., correlation and ordinary least-squares regression). In addition, 2 × 2 contingency tables for testing the association between categorical (or nominal) data are described. Finally, Sir Austin Bradford Hill's eight criteria for assessing causality from research on associations between variables are presented and explained. Three appendices provide interested readers with opportunities to practice interpreting selected curvilinear and linear relationships.

A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013-2014

This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections.

Estimating the Distribution of the Incubation Periods of Human Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections

A novel avian influenza virus, influenza A(H7N9), emerged in China in early 2013 and caused severe disease in humans, with infections occurring most frequently after recent exposure to live poultry. The distribution of A(H7N9) incubation periods is of interest to epidemiologists and public health officials, but estimation of the distribution is complicated by interval censoring of exposures. Imputation of the midpoint of intervals was used in some early studies, resulting in estimated mean incubation times of approximately 5 days. In this study, we estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A(H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infection from mainland China. A nonparametric model (Turnbull) and several parametric models accounting for the interval censoring in some exposures were fitted to the data. For the best-fitting parametric model (Weibull), the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.7) and the variance was 2.9 days; results were very similar for the nonparametric Turnbull estimate. Under the Weibull model, the 95th percentile of the incubation period distribution was 6.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.9, 7.1). The midpoint approximation for interval-censored exposures led to overestimation of the mean incubation period. Public health observation of potentially exposed persons for 7 days after exposure would be appropriate.

Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans

The controversy surrounding 'gain-of-function' experiments on high-consequence avian influenza viruses has highlighted the role of ferret transmission experiments in studying the transmission potential of novel influenza strains. However, the mapping between influenza transmission in ferrets and in humans is unsubstantiated. We address this gap by compiling and analyzing 240 estimates of influenza transmission in ferrets and humans. We demonstrate that estimates of ferret secondary attack rate (SAR) explain 66% of the variation in human SAR estimates at the subtype level. Further analysis shows that ferret transmission experiments have potential to identify influenza viruses of concern for epidemic spread in humans, though small sample sizes and biological uncertainties prevent definitive classification of human transmissibility. Thus, ferret transmission experiments provide valid predictions of pandemic potential of novel influenza strains, though results should continue to be corroborated by targeted virological and epidemiological research.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07969.001

Every year, thousands of people develop influenza (flu). After being infected by the influenza virus, the immune systems of most people adapt to fight off the virus if it is encountered again. However, there are many different strains of influenza, and new strains constantly evolve. Therefore, although someone may have developed resistance to one previously encountered strain, they can still become ill if another strain infects them.

Different strains of the influenza virus have different abilities to spread between people and make them ill. One way that scientists assess whether a particular strain of influenza is a threat to people is by studying ferrets, which develop many of the same flu symptoms as humans. However, questions have been raised over how accurately ferret studies reflect whether a particular virus strain will spread between humans.

Controversy has also arisen over experiments in which ferrets are infected with genetically engineered strains of influenza that mimic how a strain that has evolved in birds could adapt to cause a pandemic in humans. In 2014, the United States government suggested that such research should be temporarily stopped until more is known about the risks and usefulness of these studies. Now, Buhnerkempe, Gostic et al. have compared the results of 240 ferret and human studies that aimed to assess how easily strains of influenza spread. Specifically, the studies looked at how often a healthy ferret or human became ill when exposed to an animal or human infected with a particular strain of influenza.

The results of the ferret transmission studies matched well with transmission patterns observed in human studies. Ferret studies that assessed how the influenza virus is transmitted through the air via sneezes and coughs were particularly good at predicting how the virus spreads in humans. But Buhnerkempe, Gostic et al. caution that ferret studies are not always accurate, partly because they involve small numbers of animals, which can skew the results. There also needs to be more effort to standardize the procedures and measurements used in ferret studies.

Still, the analysis suggests that overall, ferret studies are a useful tool for making an initial prediction of which influenza strains may cause a pandemic in humans, which can then be verified using other methods.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07969.002

Surveillance of Avian H7N9 Virus in Various Environments of Zhejiang Province, China before and after Live Poultry Markets Were Closed in 2013-2014

Background

To date, there have been a total of 637 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus across mainland China, with 28% (179/637) of these reported in Zhejiang Province. Surveillance of avian H7N9 virus was conducted to investigate environmental contamination during H7N9 outbreaks. We sought to evaluate the prevalence of H7N9 in the environment, and the effects of poultry market closures on the incidence of human H7N9 cases.

Methods

We collected 6740 environmental samples from 751 sampling sites across 11 cities of Zhejiang Province (China) between January 2013 and March 2014. The presence of H7N9 was determined by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, with prevalence compared between sites and over time. The relationship between environmental contamination and human cases of H7N9 infection were analyzed using Spearman’s ranked correlation coefficient.

Results

Of the 6740 samples, 10.09% (680/6740) were H7N9-positive. The virus was found to circulate seasonally, and peaked during the spring and winter of 2013–2014. The prevalence of the virus decreased from the north to the southeast of the province, coinciding with the geographical distribution of human H7N9 cases. Compared with other sampling sites, live poultry markets (LPMs) had the highest prevalence of H7N9 virus at 13.94% (667/4784). Of the various sample types analyzed, virus prevalence was highest for chopping board swabs at 15.49% (110/710). The prevalence of the virus in the environment positively correlated with the incidence of human H7N9 cases (r² = 0.498; P < 0.01). Cities with a higher incidence of human H7N9 cases also had a higher prevalence of H7N9 among samples and at sampling sites. Following the closure of LPMs at the end of January 2014, the prevalence of H7N9 decreased from 19.18% (487/2539) to 6.92% (79/1141). This corresponded with a decrease in the number of human H7N9 cases reported.

Conclusions

The prevalence of H7N9 virus in environmental samples oscillated seasonally, regardless of whether LPMs were open. The presence of H7N9 in environmental samples positively correlated with the number of human H7N9 cases, indicating that eradication of the virus from the environment is essential in reducing the numbers of H7N9 cases and halting the spread of the virus.

Genetic diversity of the 2013-14 human isolates of influenza H7N9 in China

BACKGROUND

Influenza H7N9 has become an endemic pathogen in China where circulating virus is found extensively in wild birds and domestic poultry. Two epidemic waves of Human H7N9 infections have taken place in Eastern and South Central China during the years of 2013 and 2014. In this study, we report on the first four human cases of influenza H7N9 in Shantou, Guangdong province, which occurred during the second H7N9 wave, and the subsequent analysis of the viral isolates.

METHODS

Viral genomes were subjected to multisegment amplification and sequenced in an Illumina MiSeq. Later, phylogenetic analyses of influenza H7N9 viruses were performed to establish the evolutionary context of the disease in humans.

RESULTS

The sequences of the isolates from Shantou have closer evolutionary proximity to the predominant Eastern H7N9 cluster (similar to A/Shanghai/1/2013 (H7N9)) than to the Southern H7N9 cluster (similar to A/Guangdong/1/2013 (H7N9)).

CONCLUSIONS

Two distinct phylogenetic groups of influenza H7N9 circulate currently in China and cause infections in humans as a consequence of cross-species spillover from the avian disease. The Eastern cluster, which includes the four isolates from Shantou, presents a wide geographic distribution and overlaps with the more restricted area of circulation of the Southern cluster. Continued monitoring of the avian disease is of critical importance to better understand and predict the epidemiological behaviour of the human cases.

Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection

During outbreaks of high-consequence pathogens, airport screening programs have been deployed to curtail geographic spread of infection. The effectiveness of screening depends on several factors, including pathogen natural history and epidemiology, human behavior, and characteristics of the source epidemic. We developed a mathematical model to understand how these factors combine to influence screening outcomes. We analyzed screening programs for six emerging pathogens in the early and late stages of an epidemic. We show that the effectiveness of different screening tools depends strongly on pathogen natural history and epidemiological features, as well as human factors in implementation and compliance. For pathogens with longer incubation periods, exposure risk detection dominates in growing epidemics, while fever becomes a better target in stable or declining epidemics. For pathogens with short incubation, fever screening drives detection in any epidemic stage. However, even in the most optimistic scenario arrival screening will miss the majority of cases.

Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection

During outbreaks of high-consequence pathogens, airport screening programs have been deployed to curtail geographic spread of infection. The effectiveness of screening depends on several factors, including pathogen natural history and epidemiology, human behavior, and characteristics of the source epidemic. We developed a mathematical model to understand how these factors combine to influence screening outcomes. We analyzed screening programs for six emerging pathogens in the early and late stages of an epidemic. We show that the effectiveness of different screening tools depends strongly on pathogen natural history and epidemiological features, as well as human factors in implementation and compliance. For pathogens with longer incubation periods, exposure risk detection dominates in growing epidemics, while fever becomes a better target in stable or declining epidemics. For pathogens with short incubation, fever screening drives detection in any epidemic stage. However, even in the most optimistic scenario arrival screening will miss the majority of cases.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Among Mobile Phone Users: A Survey in Zhejiang Province, China

BACKGROUND

Understanding people's knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding a new infectious disease is crucial to the prevention and control of it. Human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) was first identified on March 31, 2013 in China. Out of the total number of 134 cases confirmed from March to September 2013 in China, Zhejiang Province saw the greatest number (46 cases).

OBJECTIVE

This study employed a mobile Internet survey to assess KAP regarding H7N9 among mobile phone users in Zhejiang Province. This study intended to examine KAP by region and the association between sociodemographic variables and KAP.

METHODS

An anonymous questionnaire was designed by Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A cross-sectional survey was executed through a mobile Internet application platform of China Unicom in 5 regions in Zhejiang Province. Stratified and clustered sampling methods were applied and mobile phone users were invited to participate in the study voluntarily.

RESULTS

A total of 9582 eligible mobile phone users participated in the survey with a response rate of 1.92% (9582/5,000,000). A total of 9105 valid responses (95.02%) were included for statistical analysis. Generally, more than three-quarters of the participants had some basic knowledge of H7N9 and held the attitude recommended by the Zhejiang CDC toward eating cooked poultry (77.55%, 7061/9105) and visiting a hospital at the occurrence of symptoms (78.51%, 7148/9105). Approximately half of the participants worried about contracting H7N9, and took preventive practices recommended by the Zhejiang CDC. But only 14.29% (1301/9105) of participants kept eating cooked poultry as usual. Although worry about H7N9 infection did not differ by region, Hangzhou saw the largest proportion of participants with knowledge of H7N9, which was probably because Hangzhou had the greatest number of H7N9 cases. KAP varied by some sociodemographic variables. Female participants were more likely to know about symptoms of H7N9 (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08-1.61), to worry about contracting it (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.27), and to report their lives being influenced by it (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.15-1.41). They were also more likely to take the recommended precautions. Male participants and younger participants were less likely to comply with advocated protective practices.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that health education should be customized depending on sociodemographic variables to achieve more effective behavioral outcomes.

Pathogenesis of infection with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in isogenic guinea pigs after intranasal or intratracheal inoculation

To elucidate the pathogenesis and transmission of influenza virus, the ferret model is typically used. To investigate protective immune responses, the use of inbred mouse strains has proven invaluable. Here, we describe a study with isogenic guinea pigs, which would uniquely combine the advantages of the mouse and ferret models for influenza virus infection. Strain 2 isogenic guinea pigs were inoculated with H1N1pdm09 influenza virus A/Netherlands/602/09 by the intranasal or intratracheal route. Viral replication kinetics were assessed by determining virus titers in nasal swabs and respiratory tissues, which were also used to assess histopathologic changes and the number of infected cells. In all guinea pigs, virus titers peaked in nasal secretions at day 2 after inoculation. Intranasal inoculation resulted in higher virus excretion via the nose and higher virus titers in the nasal turbinates than intratracheal inoculation. After intranasal inoculation, infectious virus was recovered only from nasal epithelium; after intratracheal inoculation, it was recovered also from trachea, lung, and cerebrum. Histopathologic changes corresponded with virus antigen distribution, being largely limited to nasal epithelium for intranasally infected guinea pigs and more widespread in the respiratory tract for intratracheally infected guinea pigs. In summary, isogenic guinea pigs show promise as a model to investigate the role of humoral and cell-mediated immunities to influenza and their effect on virus transmission.