5-year survival and rehospitalization due to stroke recurrence among patients with hemorrhagic or ischemic strokes in Singapore

Incidence of mortality and risk factors among adult stroke patients in public hospitals Jigjiga town Somali region, Ethiopia: Cohort study design

Background

A stroke is a sudden loss of blood supply to the brain, leading to permanent tissue damage caused by embolism, thrombosis, or hemorrhagic events. Almost 85% of strokes are ischemic strokes.

Objective

To assess the incidence of mortality and risk factors among adult stroke patients in public hospitals of Jigjiga town, Somali Region, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted from 25 May to 15 June 2022 at Sheikh Hassen Yabare Referral Hospital and Karamara Hospital. Data were entered using Epi-Data version 4.3 and exported to be analyzed using SPSS 20 statistical software. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate mean survival time, and a predictor with a p-value < 0.05 was considered to have a significant in multivariate Cox regression.

Results

About 480 stroke patients' charts were included in this study; among those, 229 (53.3%) were male stroke patients, and 259 (60.2%) had an ischemic stroke. The overall incidence rate was 7.15 deaths per 1000 person-day observations. The overall median survival time for adult stroke patients was 120 days. GCS level b/n 3-8 has a lower survival time with a mean survival time of 57 days (95% CI: 48.8-66.7) as compared to those who had GCS level 9-12 with a mean survival time of 103 days (95% CI: 93.4-112.9). Age ⩾ 71 (AHR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.02-3.45), presence of pneumonia (AHR = 2.7; 95% CI: 1.52-4.63), and history of hypertension (AHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.08-3.89) were the predictors of mortality among stroke patients.

Conclusion

According to the findings of this study, the incidence of mortality was high, at 7.15 per 1000 person-years. The presence of pneumonia, decreased GCS, age ⩾ 7, and history of hypertension were predictors of mortality in adult stroke patients.

Patient Readmission for Ischemic Stroke: Risk Factors and Impact on Mortality

Patient readmission for ischemic stroke significantly strains the healthcare and medical insurance systems. Current understanding of the risk factors associated with these readmissions, as well as their subsequent impact on mortality within China, remains insufficient. This is particularly evident in the context of comprehensive, contemporary population studies. This 4-year retrospective cohort study included 125 397 hospital admissions for ischemic stroke from 838 hospitals located in 22 regions (13 urban and 9 rural) of a major city in western China, between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018. The Chi-square tests were used in univariate analysis. Accounting for intra-subject correlations of patients' readmissions, accelerated failure time (AFT) shared frailty models were used to examine readmission events and pure AFT models for mortality. Risk factors for patient readmission after ischemic stroke include frequent admission history, male gender, employee's insurance, advanced age, residence in urban areas, index hospitalization in low-level hospitals, extended length of stay (LOS) during index hospitalization, specific comorbidities and subtypes of ischemic stroke. Furthermore, our findings indicated that an additional admission for ischemic stroke increased patient mortality by 16.4% (P < .001). Stroke readmission contributed to an increased risk of hospital mortality. Policymakers can establish more effective and targeted policies to reduce readmissions for stroke by controlling these risk factors.

Explainable Risk Prediction of Post-Stroke Adverse Mental Outcomes Using Machine Learning Techniques in a Population of 1780 Patients

Post-stroke depression and anxiety, collectively known as post-stroke adverse mental outcome (PSAMO) are common sequelae of stroke. About 30% of stroke survivors develop depression and about 20% develop anxiety. Stroke survivors with PSAMO have poorer health outcomes with higher mortality and greater functional disability. In this study, we aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of PSAMO. We retrospectively studied 1780 patients with stroke who were divided into PSAMO vs. no PSAMO groups based on results of validated depression and anxiety questionnaires. The features collected included demographic and sociological data, quality of life scores, stroke-related information, medical and medication history, and comorbidities. Recursive feature elimination was used to select features to input in parallel to eight ML algorithms to train and test the model. Bayesian optimization was used for hyperparameter tuning. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), an explainable AI (XAI) method, was applied to interpret the model. The best performing ML algorithm was gradient-boosted tree, which attained 74.7% binary classification accuracy. Feature importance calculated by SHAP produced a list of ranked important features that contributed to the prediction, which were consistent with findings of prior clinical studies. Some of these factors were modifiable, and potentially amenable to intervention at early stages of stroke to reduce the incidence of PSAMO.

Optimizing cardiovascular disease risk screening in a low-resource setting: cost-effectiveness of program modifications in Sri Lanka modelled with nationally representative survey data

BACKGROUND

While screening for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk can help low-resource health systems deliver low-cost, effective prevention, evidence is needed to adapt international screening guidelines for maximal impact in local settings. We aimed to establish how the cost-effectiveness of CVD risk screening in Sri Lanka varies with who is screened, how risk is assessed, and what thresholds are used for prescription of medicines.

METHODS

We used data for people aged 35 years and over from a 2018/19 nationally representative survey in Sri Lanka. We modelled the costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for 128 screening program scenarios distinguished by a) age group screened, b) risk tool used, c) definition of high CVD risk, d) blood pressure threshold for treatment of high-risks, and e) prescription of statins to all diabetics. We used the current program as the base case. We used a Markov model of a one-year screening program with a lifetime horizon and a public health system perspective.

RESULTS

Scenarios that included the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool dominated most others. Switching to this tool and raising the age threshold for screening from 35 to 40 years gave an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $113/QALY. Lowering the CVD high-risk threshold from 20 to 10% and prescribing antihypertensives at a lower threshold to diabetics and people at high risk of CVD gave an ICER of $1,159/QALY. The findings were sensitive to allowing for disutility of daily medication.

CONCLUSIONS

In Sri Lanka, CVD risk screening scenarios that used the WHO-2019 office-based risk tool, screened people above the age of 40, and lowered risk and blood pressure thresholds would likely be cost-effective, generating an additional QALY at less than half a GDP per capita.

Using early health economic modeling to inform medical innovation development: a soft robotic sock in poststroke patients in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

Based on a real-world collaboration with innovators in applying early health economic modeling, we aimed to offer practical steps that health technology assessment (HTA) researchers and innovators can follow and promote the usage of early HTA among research and development (R&D) communities.

METHODS

The HTA researcher was approached by the innovator to carry out an early HTA ahead of the first clinical trial of the technology, a soft robotic sock for poststroke patients. Early health economic modeling was selected to understand the potential value of the technology and to help uncover the information gap. Threshold analysis was used to identify the target product profiles. Value-of-information analysis was conducted to understand the uncertainties and the need for further research.

RESULTS

Based on the expected price and clinical effectiveness by the innovator, the new technology was found to be cost-saving compared to the current practice. Risk reduction in deep vein thrombosis and ankle contracture, the incidence rate of ankle contracture, the compliance rate of the new technology, and utility scores were found to have high impacts on the value-for-money of the new technology. The value of information was low if the new technology can achieve the expected clinical effectiveness. A list of parameters was recommended for data collection in the impending clinical trial.

CONCLUSIONS

This work, based on a real-world collaboration, has illustrated that early health economic modeling can inform medical innovation development. We provided practical steps in order to achieve more efficient R&D investment in medical innovation moving forward.

Risk profile, clinical presentation, and determinants of stroke subtypes among patients with stroke admitted to public referral hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia in 2021: A cross-sectional study

Background

Stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, with a significant increase in stroke burden over the last two and half decades, especially in developing countries. African countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition from being dominated by infectious diseases to being double-burdened by non-communicable diseases, with existing infectious diseases driven by sociodemographic and lifestyle changes and a weak healthcare system. Data on the risk profile, clinical presentation, and predictors of stroke subtypes are still limited. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to assess the risk profile, clinical presentation, and predictors of stroke in public referral hospitals of Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

For this study, 554 patients with stroke admitted to three public referral hospitals were prospectively followed up. Data were collected using a pre-tested interviewer-administered questionnaire. STATA version 16 was used for data analyses. Candidate variables significant in bivariate analysis were selected for multivariate binary logistic regression, and statistical significance was set at a p &lt; 0.05.

Results

Of the 554 patients with stroke, 60.3% had an ischemic stroke. The mean age of the participants was 61 ± 12.85 years, and more than half (53.25%) of them were women. The most common risk factor identified was hypertension (29.7%), followed by congestive heart failure. The most common clinical presentation was hemiparesis, which was reported by 57.7% of the patients, followed by loss of consciousness (20.7%) and aphasia (9%). Through multivariable logistic regression, age (AOR = 1.03, 95% CI:1.01–1.05), sedentary physical activity level (AOR = 6.78, 95% CI:1.97–23.32), absence of a family history of chronic illness (AOR = 3.79, 95% CI:2.21–6.48), hypertension (AOR=0.51, 95% CI:0.31–0.85), and past stroke (AOR = 3.54, 95% CI:0.93–13.49) were found to be independent determinants of the stroke subtype.

Conclusion

Age, the level of sedentary physical activity, absence of a family history of chronic illness, hypertension, and past stroke were independent determinants of stroke subtype.

In-hospital mortality and its predictors among adult stroke patients admitted in Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Introduction

Stroke is the second-leading global cause of death next to ischemic heart disease. The burden of stroke mortality, morbidity, and disability is increasing across the world. In Ethiopia, evidence on the survival status of adult stroke patients is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to estimate in-hospital mortality and its predictors among adult stroke patients.

Methods

Institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on adult stroke patients who were admitted to Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from 1 November 2015 to 31 October 2020. Through simple random sampling, 382 patient charts were selected from 1125 stroke patients for 5 years follow-up period. Data were entered using EpiData™ version 4.1 and exported to Stata/SE™ version 14 for cleaning, coding, categorizing, and analysis. Predictor variables were selected using 95% confidence interval with a corresponding adjusted hazard ratio.

Results

In this study, 219 (57.33%) males and the mean (standard deviation) age of 57.65 ± 14.3 years. The in-hospital mortality rate of stroke was 12.8%; the median (interquartile range) time to mortality and Glasgow Coma Scale were 7 (4-13) days and 14 (11-15), respectively. The incidence of in-hospital mortality was 29/1000, 11/1000, 8/1000, and 13.6/1000 person-days in the first, second, third, and end of follow-up weeks, respectively. Pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio = 3.51 (95% confidence interval = 1.86, 6.61)), hemorrhagic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.03 (95% confidence interval = 1.03, 3.99)), moderate impairment Glasgow Coma Scale (9-12) (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.16 (95% confidence interval = 1.08, 4.29)), severe impairment Glasgow Coma Scale (3-8) (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.38 (95% confidence interval = 1.01, 5.67)), history of hypertension (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.01 (95% confidence interval = 1.08, 3.74)), and increased intracranial pressure (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.12 (95% confidence interval = 1.10, 4.07)) were statistically significant predictors for in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

In-hospital mortality of stroke was relatively high, and the median time to mortality was 8 days. Pneumonia, hemorrhagic stroke, Glasgow Coma Scale, history of hypertension, and increased intracranial pressure were identified predictors.

Determinants of Stroke Mortality through Survival Models: The Case of Mettu Karl Referral Hospital, Mettu, Ethiopia

Introduction

Every year worldwide, between five to six million deaths are associated with stroke; on average, one stroke-related death occurs every four minutes. In Ethiopia, stroke is a frequent cause of mortality and morbidity from noncommunicable diseases. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining factors associated to stroke mortality through survival models in Mettu Karl Referral Hospital.

Methods

This study was conducted from September 1, 2014, to April 1, 2017, and encompassed 202 stroke patients at Mettu Karl Referral Hospital. The Cox semiparametric regression was used for analyzing survival analysis of stroke patients using R software.

Results

A total of 202 stroke patients were included in the study, and among those patients, 72.8% and 27.2% were censored and died, respectively. According to the result of Cox semiparametric regression model, sex of patients, hypertension, baseline complication, and stroke type had significant effect on survival of the stroke patient at 5% significance level.

Conclusion

The results from Cox semiparametric regression model indicated that sex of patients, hypertension, baseline complication, and stroke type were major factors related to the survival time of stroke patients. The researcher recommends that the people should be aware on the burden of those risk factors and well informed about the disease.

Real-World Management and Clinical Outcomes of Stroke Survivors With Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort in Spain

Objective: Despite the continuous update of clinical guidelines, little is known about the real-world management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who survived a stroke. We aimed to assess patterns of therapeutic management of stroke survivors with AF and clinical outcomes using data from routine practice in a large population-based cohort.

Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study of all patients with AF who survived a stroke, from January 2010 to December 2017 in the Valencia region, Spain (n = 10,986), was carried out. Treatment strategies and mean time to treatment initiation are described. Temporal trends are shown by the management pattern during the study period. Factors associated with each pattern (including no treatment) vs. oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment were identified using logistic multivariate regression models. Incidence rates of clinical outcomes (mortality, stroke/TIA, GI bleeding, and ACS) were also estimated by the management pattern.

Results: Among stroke survivors with AF, 6% were non-treated, 23% were prescribed antiplatelets (APT), 54% were prescribed OAC, and 17% received OAC + APT at discharge. Time to treatment was 8.0 days (CI 7.6–8.4) for APT, 9.86 (CI 9.52–10.19) for OAC, and 16.47 (CI 15.86–17.09) for OAC + APT. Regarding temporal trends, management with OAC increased by 20%, with a decrease of 50% for APT during the study period. No treatment and OAC + APT remained relatively stable. The strongest predictor of no treatment and APT treatment was having the same management strategy pre-stroke. Those treated with APT had the highest rates of GI bleeding and recurrent stroke/TIA, and untreated patients showed the highest rates of mortality.

Conclusion: In this large population-based cohort using real-world data, nearly 30% of AF patients who suffered a stroke were untreated or treated with APT, which overall is not recommended. Treatment was started within 2 weeks as recommended, except for OAC + APT, which was started later. The strong association of APT treatment or non-treatment with the same treatment strategy before stroke occurrence suggests a strong therapeutic inertia and opposes recommendations. Patients under these two strategies had the highest rates of adverse outcomes. An inadequate prescription poses a great risk on patients with AF and stroke; thus monitoring their management is necessary and should be setting-specific.

Frequency of recurrent stroke in Burkina Faso: an observational hospital based study of 6 months

Introduction

studies on stroke recurrence are rare in sub-Sahara Africa. The aim to this study is to determine the prevalence and risk factors for recurrent stroke in two University Teaching Hospital in Burkina Faso.

Methods

this prospective cross-sectional study was carried on 266 stroke patients admitted in two hospitals in the city of Ouagadougou from September 1, 2017 to February 28, 2018. Patients with stroke recurrence (ischemic or hemorrhagic) were included.

Results

of 266 acute stroke patients included, 44 (16.4%) had recurrent stroke. The mean age of patients was 66.5 ± 11.49 years with male predominance. Hypertension was the most vascular risk factors (81.8%). Previous stroke was ischemic in 61.4%, hemorrhagic in 22.7% and unknown in 15.9% of cases. Poor compliance (< 60%) was determined in patients taking antiagregant (43.6%) and statins (50%). At admission, the most neurological disorders was motor deficit (100%), aphasia (84.1%), and deglutition disorders (15.9%). CT scan showed ischemic in 82% and hemorrhagic stroke in 18% of cases. With the analysis of second stroke, recurrent stroke after intracerebral hemorrhage was hemorrhagic in 77.8% and ischemic in 22.2%. Recurrent stroke after ischemic stroke was ischemic in 100%.

Conclusion

stroke recurrence is common in our context. Hypertension was the most common vascular risk factor in recurrent stroke. Poor compliance was determined in patients taking antiagregant agents and statins in previous stroke.

Impacts of treatments on recurrence and 28-year survival of ischemic stroke patients

Aspirin and nicametate are well-established therapies for preventing recurrence and mortality from stroke in patients diagnosed as ischemic stroke. However, their respective effects on the recurrence, making allowance for the duration of recurrence and death without the occurrence of recurrence, and long-term survival have not been well elucidated. We aimed to evaluate long-term effect of two kinds of treatment on cerebrovascular death among ischemic stroke patients with or without the recurrence of stroke. Data used in this study were derived from the cohort based on a multicenter randomized double-blind controlled trial during 1992 to 1995 with the enrollment of a total of 466 patients with first-time non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke who were randomly allocated to receive aspirin (n = 222) or nicametate (n = 244). The trial cohort was followed up over time to ascertain the date of recurrence within trial period and death until Sep of 2019. The time-dependent Cox regression model was used to estimate the long-term effects of two treatments on death from cerebrovascular disease with and without recurrence. A total of 49 patients experienced stroke recurrence and 89 cerebrovascular deaths was confirmed. Patients treated with nicametate were more likely, but non statistically significantly, to have recurrence (aHR: 1.73, 95% CI 0.96–3.13) as compared with those treated by aspirin. Nicametate reduced the risk of cerebrovascular death about 37% (aHR: 0.63, 95% CI 0.41–0.97) compared with aspirin. The aspirin group had a lower recurrence rate than the nicametate group even with recurrence after 1–2 years of follow-up of first stroke but the latter had significantly reduced death from cerebrovascular disease for nicametate group, which requires more research to verify.

Different reorganizations of functional brain networks after first-ever and recurrent ischemic stroke

Even though recurrent stroke patients constitute a large percentage of the stroke population, few studies specifically investigated their neural reorganization. In this study, we recruited seventeen first-ever stroke patients as well as fourteen recurrent stroke patients, and recorded their resting EEG signals and NIHSS score before and after two weeks of recovery, to compare their neural reorganization from network scale. The clinical improvements were comparable in two groups during the two weeks. However, their brain networks were differently reorganized, especially in the delta band. The recurrent stroke patients showed an increased clustering coefficient and a decreased characteristic path length of the delta network, along with increased ipsilesional intrahemispheric connectivity; while no such changes were observed in the first-ever stroke patients. Our results suggest that stroke history influences neural reorganization during recovery.

Blood Biomarkers to Predict Long-Term Mortality after Ischemic Stroke

Stroke is a major cause of disability and death globally, and prediction of mortality represents a crucial challenge. We aimed to identify blood biomarkers measured during acute ischemic stroke that could predict long-term mortality. Nine hundred and forty-one ischemic stroke patients were prospectively recruited in the Stroke-Chip study. Post-stroke mortality was evaluated during a median 4.8-year follow-up. A 14-biomarker panel was analyzed by immunoassays in blood samples obtained at hospital admission. Biomarkers were normalized and standardized using Z-scores. Multiple Cox regression models were used to identify clinical variables and biomarkers independently associated with long-term mortality and mortality due to stroke. In the multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of long-term mortality were age, female sex, hypertension, glycemia, and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score. Independent blood biomarkers predictive of long-term mortality were endostatin > quartile 2, tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (TNF-R1) > quartile 2, and interleukin (IL)-6 > quartile 2. The risk of mortality when these three biomarkers were combined increased up to 69%. The addition of the biomarkers to clinical predictors improved the discrimination (integrative discriminative improvement (IDI) 0.022 (0.007–0.048), p < 0.001). Moreover, endostatin > quartile 3 was an independent predictor of mortality due to stroke. Altogether, endostatin, TNF-R1, and IL-6 circulating levels may aid in long-term mortality prediction after stroke.

Clinical Correlation Analysis of Complications in Elderly Patients with Sequelae of Stroke with Different Barthel Index in Tianjin Emergency Department

OBJECTIVE

The Barthel index (BI) is the most commonly used measure of poststroke disability. The purpose of this article is to explore the different complications and severity of the sequelae of elderly stroke patients with different BI in the emergency department, so as to provide a theoretical basis for strengthening the treatment of elderly patients with stroke sequelae.

METHODS

A retrospective study was adopted, and 1896 patients were divided into two groups according to the BI: 823 patients in the bedridden group (BI ≤ 40 points) and 1073 patients in the nonbedridden group (BI > 40 points). The type and number of complications and APACHE II score were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Compared with the two groups, pneumonia, renal insufficiency, respiratory failure, and decubitus ulcer in the bedridden group had a higher incidence, but the incidence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and fractures in the nonbedridden group was significantly higher (P < 0.05). The APACHE II score of the patients in the bedridden group was higher than that of the nonbedridden group, and they were critical (P < 0.001). And the number of complications was higher than that in the nonbedridden group. Moreover, the BI was negatively correlated with the APACHE-II score and the number of complications, and the APACHE II score was positively correlated with the number of complications (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Different complications and severity of illness occur in elderly patients with sequelae of stroke after different BI in the emergency department.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of combining traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of hypertension: compound Apocynum tablets combined with Nifedipine sustained-release tablets vs Nifedipine sustained-release tablets alone

Background

We evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of antihypertensive traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs) and to compare the cost-effectiveness of a combined treatment consisting of compound Apocynum tablets and Nifedipine sustained-release tablets with the cost-effectiveness of treatment with Nifedipine sustained-release tablets alone.

Methods

A Markov model was used to simulate the potential incremental cost-effectiveness per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) to be gained from compound Apocynum tablets and Nifedipine sustained-release tablets compared with Nifedipine sustained-release tablets alone. Model parameter estimates were informed by previously published studies. The direct medical costs of outpatients with hypertension were estimated from the health care provider’s perspective. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to both costs and QALYs.

Results

TCMs combined with Nifedipine sustained-release tablets group generated a total 20-year cost of 11,517.94 RMB (US $1739.87), whereas Nifedipine sustained-release tablets alone group resulted in a 20-year cost of 7253.71 RMB (US $1095.73). TCMs combined with Nifedipine sustained-release tablets group resulted in a generation of 12.69 QALYs, whereas Nifedipine sustained-release tablets alone group resulted in 12.50. The incremental cost-utility ratio was 22,443.32 RMB (US $3390.23) per QALY. Considering the threshold of 1 GDP per capita in China in 2018 (US $9764.95), the combination of compound Apocynum tablets and Nifedipine sustained-release tablets was a cost-effective strategy. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed unchanged results over an acceptable range.

Conclusions

Combining Traditional Chinese Medicines with chemical medicines is more cost-effective strategy in the treatment of hypertension.

Cumulative risk of stroke recurrence over the last 10 years: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stroke is still the main cause of death and disability worldwide, numerous studies of recurrence risk have been reported, while systematic estimates of stroke recurrence risk in the last 10 years are variable. This review aims to estimate the cumulative stroke recurrence risk in the last 10 years for secondary prevention management in future.

METHODS

A systematic search from January 2009 to March 2019 was conducted through PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Wan-fang, and CNKI. Search terms were in English and Chinese.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies involving 1,075,014 stroke patients were included. The pooled stroke recurrence rate was 7.7% at 3 months, 9.5% at 6 months, 10.4% at 1 year, 16.1% at 2 years, 16.7% at 3 years, 14.8% at 5 years, 12.9% at 10 years, and 39.7% at 12 years after the initial stroke. In addition, the pooled recurrence rate of 32 studies including stroke patients over 50 years only at seven time points except for subgroup of 10 years was 7.7%, 9.5%, 11.2%, 16.1%, 19.3%, 18.1%, and 39.7%, respectively. Meta-regression showed that the time points explained 23.02% of the variance among studies, while regions, age, and stroke types showed no significant contribution to heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of stroke recurrence varies greatly from 3 months to over 10 years and increases significantly over time in both young and old subgroup. The heterogeneity may be explained by follow-up time, regions, age, methodology differences, and stroke types, which was needed further exploration in future.

Systematic Development of Structured Semi-interactive Stroke Prevention Package for Secondary Stroke Prevention

Background:

Lack of compliance to medication and uncontrolled risk factors are associated with increased risk of recurrent stroke and acute coronary syndrome in patients with recent stroke. Multimodal patient education may be a strategy to improve the compliance to medication and early adoption of nonpharmacological measures to reduce the vascular risk factor burden in patients with stroke. We thus aim to develop multilingual short messaging services (SMS), print, and audio-visual secondary stroke prevention patient education package. The efficacy of the package will be tested in a randomized control trial to prevent major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events.

Methods:

In the formative stage, intervention materials (SMS, video, and workbook) were developed. In the acceptability stage, the package was independently assessed and modified by the stakeholders involved in the stroke patient care and local language experts. The modified stroke prevention package was tested for implementation issues (implementation stage).

Results:

Sixty-nine SMS, six videos, and workbook with 11 chapters with 15 activities were developed in English language with a mean ± SD SMOG index of 9.1 ± 0.4. A total of 355 stakeholders including patients (24.8%), caregivers (24.8%), doctors (10.4%), nurses (14.1%), local language experts (2.8%), physiotherapists (13.2%), and research coordinators (9.8%) participated in 10 acceptability stage meetings. The mean Patient Education Material Assessment Tool understandability score in all languages for SMS, video scripts, and workbook was 95.2 ± 2.6%, 95.2 ± 4.4%, and 95.3 ± 3.6%, respectively. The patients [n = 20, mean age of 70.3 ± 10.6 years and median interquartile range (IQR) baseline NIHSS 1 (0–3)] or the research coordinators (n = 2) noted no implementation issues at the end of 1 month.

Conclusion:

An implementable complex multilingual patient education material could be developed in a stepwise manner. The efficacy of the package to prevent major adverse cardiovascular events is being tested in the SPRINT INDIA study.

The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the Most Common Comorbidities-A Retrospective Study on 814 COVID-19 Deaths in Romania

Background: The SARS-CoV2 infection has rapidly spread throughout the world, particularly affecting those with underlying conditions.

Objective: To assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the most prevalent comorbidities, among people who died of COVID-19 in Romania.

Methods: The study comprised 814 deaths caused by COVID-19 between 22nd March and 8th May, 2020 as reported by the Ministry of Health. WHO data regarding deaths of the general population of Romania was used for comparison. The study analyzed the demographics, number and prevalence of comorbidities and calculated the relative risk for each comorbidity.

Results: The study sample consisted of 61.4% males and 38.6% females; the mean age was 68.2 y; 90.9% of deaths occurred in people 50+ years. The mean number of pre-existing conditions was 2.73 (SD = 1.521), with 97.4% of the patients having at least one. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (43.1%), diabetes (33.2%), and coronary heart disease (26.0%). The calculated relative risk of death due to COVID-19 was divided into 3 risk categories: high impact comorbidities (RR > 3) included diabetes RR = 6.426 (95% CI, 4.965–8.318), chronic renal disease RR = 4.338 (95% CI, 3.556–5.292) and hypertension RR=3.261 (95% CI, 2.687–3.958). The medium impact (RR = 2–3) group comprised chronic pulmonary disease RR = 2.615 (95% CI, 2.061–3.319) and chronic liver disease RR = 1.577 (95% CI, 1.183–2.104) and the low impact group (RR<2) –coronary heart disease RR = 0.664 (95% CI, 0.581–0.758), cancer RR = 0.515 (95% CI, 0.416–0.637) and stroke RR = 0.468 (95% CI, 0.370–0.593).

Conclusion: In the studied sample, SARS-CoV-2 had a greater impact on people with diabetes, chronic renal disease and hypertension and a lesser impact on those with coronary heart disease, cancer and stroke. Therefore, future policies in Romania should focus on shielding people in the high-risk group and prioritizing them for vaccination, whilst encouraging those in the low risk group to continue seeking treatment for their underlying diseases.

Increased One-Year Recurrent Ischemic Stroke after First-Ever Ischemic Stroke in Males with Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

(1) Background: Patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) were questioned about quality of life and sleep. Most BPH patients were treated with alpha-1 adrenergic receptor antagonists, which could improve cerebral blood flow for 1–2 months. Patients with ischemic stroke (IS) could experience cerebral autoregulation impairment for six months. The relationship between BPH and recurrent IS remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the risk of one-year recurrent IS conferred by BPH. (2) Methods: We used data from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Database to identify newly diagnosed IS cases entered from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2008. Patients were followed until the recurrent IS event or 365 days after the first hospitalization. The risk factors associated with one-year recurrent IS were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. (3) Results: Patients with BPH had a higher risk of recurrent IS (12.11% versus 8.15%) (adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.352; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.028–1.78, p = 0.031). Other risk factors included hyperlipidemia (adjusted HR: 1.338; 95% CI: 1.022–1.751, p = 0.034), coronary artery disease (adjusted HR: 1.487; 95% CI: 1.128–1.961, p = 0.005), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (adjusted HR: 1.499; 95% CI: 1.075–2.091, p = 0.017), and chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR: 1.523; 95% CI: 1.033–2.244, p = 0.033). (4) Conclusion: Patients with BPH who had these risk factors had an increased risk of one-year recurrent IS. The modification of risk factors may prevent recurrent IS.

Involvement of swallowing therapy is associated with improved long-term survival in patients with post-stroke dysphagia

BACKGROUND

The effects of swallowing therapy (ST) on long-term clinical outcomes in patients with post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) remain unclear.

AIM

This study explores the effect of ST, initiated within 6 months of the stroke onset, on long-term pneumonia-free and overall survival rates in PSD patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Longitudinal Health Insurance Database.

POPULATION

The study included 2994 eligible PSD patients between 2005 and 2013.

METHODS

Among the scrutinized PSD patients, ST was initiated during the nasogastric intubation (NGI) period and was implemented by physician discretion. Therefore, subjects who underwent ST were classified into the ST-intervention (STI) group and those without ST were classified into the non-ST (NST) group. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to match age, sex, pneumonia events during the NGI period, the Charlson comorbidity index, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale between the two groups. We started to follow all selected PSD patients 6 months after the onset of stroke for four years. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimations were conducted to assess the effects of ST and the ST duration on pneumonia-free and overall survival.

RESULTS

Overall, 1497 PSD patients aged approximately 68 years in each group were selected in this study. The pneumonia-free survival rate in STI subjects was 57.4% and was significantly greater (P=0.003) than that (54.2%) in NST subjects during the follow-up (F/U). A significantly improved (P<0.0001) overall survival rate was observed in STI subjects (75.0%) compared to NST subjects (63.7%) during the F/U. In STI subjects, ST duration ≥ 1 month was significantly (P=0.009) associated with reduced pneumonia incidence compared to those with ST duration<1 month.

CONCLUSIONS

Participation of ST within 6 months of the stroke onset is associated with decreased pneumonia incidence and improved long-term survival in selected PSD patients. In the selected STI subjects, longer ST duration may be valuable in pneumonia prevention.

CLINICAL REHABILITATION IMPACT

This study reveals that ST initiated within 6 months of the stroke onset may be associated with improved long-term survival in selected PSD patients.

Sex differences in stroke

Sex disparities within the field of stroke, including subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs), have been in focus during the last 2 decades. It is clear that stroke incidence is higher in men, and also that men have their first stroke earlier than women. On the other hand, women have more severe strokes, mainly because cardioembolic strokes are more common in women. This leads to higher case fatality and worse functional outcome in women. It has often been pointed out that women more often have nontraditional stroke symptoms, and therefore may seek medical help later. After discharge from the hospital, female stroke survivors live alone in many cases and are dependent on external care. Therefore, these women frequently rate their quality of life (QoL) lower than men do. Female spouses more often provide help to their male stroke survivors than the reverse, and they accept a heavier burden. These caregivers are at high risk for depression, low QoL, and low psychologic wellbeing. SAH is a special form of stroke, often caused by a ruptured aneurysm. It is about 20% more common in women. The case fatality is high, but does not differ between the sexes.

High Risk of One-year Stroke Recurrence in Patients with Younger Age and Prior History of Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose:

Recurrent ischemic strokes increase the risk of disability and mortality. The role of conventional risk factors in recurrent strokes may change due to increased awareness of prevention strategies. The aim of this study was to explore the potential risk factors besides conventional ones which may help to affect the advances in future preventive concepts associated with one-year stroke recurrence (OSR).

Methods:

We analyzed 6,632 adult patients with ischemic stroke. Differences in clinical characteristics between patients with and without OSR were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses.

Results:

Among the study population, 525 patients (7.9%) had OSR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that male sex (OR 1.243, 95% CI 1.025 – 1.506), age (OR 1.015, 95% CI 1.007 - 1.023), and a prior history of ischemic stroke (OR 1.331, 95% CI 1.096 – 1.615) were major factors associated with OSR. CART analysis further identified age and a prior history of ischemic stroke were important factors for OSR when classified the patients into three subgroups (with risks of OSR of 8.8%, 3.8%, and 12.5% for patients aged > 57.5 years, ≤ 57.5 years/with no prior history of ischemic stroke, and ≤ 57.5 years/with a prior history of ischemic stroke, respectively).

Conclusions:

Male sex, age, and a prior history of ischemic stroke could increase the risk of OSR by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and CART analysis further demonstrated that patients with a younger age (≤ 57.5 years) and a prior history of ischemic stroke had the highest risk of OSR.

Recurrent ischemic stroke: Incidence, predictors, and impact on mortality

Background and purpose

Recurrent ischemic stroke (IS) or TIA is frequent with a considerable variation in incidence and mortality across populations. Current data on stroke recurrence and mortality are useful to examine trends, risk factors, and treatment effects. In this study, we calculated the incidence of recurrent IS or TIA in a hospital‐based stroke population in Western Norway, investigated recurrence factors, and estimated the effect of recurrence on all‐cause mortality.

Methods

This prospective cohort study registered recurrence and mortality among 1872 IS and TIA survivors admitted to the stroke unit at Haukeland University Hospital between July 2007 and December 2013. Recurrence and death until September 1, 2016, were identified by medical chart review. Cumulative incidences of recurrence were estimated with a competing risks Cox model. Multivariate Cox models were used to examine recurrence factors and mortality.

Results

During follow‐up, 220 patients had 277 recurrent IS or TIAs. The cumulative recurrence rate was 5.4% at 1 year, 11.3% at 5 years, and 14.2% at the end of follow‐up. Hypertension (HR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.21‐2.25), prior symptomatic stroke (HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.18‐2.24), chronic infarcts on MRI (HR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.10‐1.99), and age (HR 1.02/year, 95% CI 1.00‐1.03) were independently associated with recurrence. A total of 668 (35.7%) patients died during follow‐up. Recurrence significantly increased the all‐cause mortality (HR = 2.55, 95% CI 2.04‐3.18).

Conclusions

The risk of recurrent IS stroke or TIA was modest in our population and was associated with previously established risk factors. Recurrence more than doubled the all‐cause mortality.

Milk Powder Fortified with Potassium and Phytosterols to Decrease the Risk of Cardiovascular Events among the Adult Population in Malaysia: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the consumption of a milk powder product fortified with potassium (+1050.28 mg/day) and phytosterols (+1200 mg/day) to lower systolic blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, respectively, and, therefore, the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke among the 35-75-year-old population in Malaysia. A Markov model was created against a do-nothing option, from a governmental perspective, and with a time horizon of 40 years. Different data sources, encompassing clinical studies, practice guidelines, grey literature, and statistical yearbooks, were used. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on the base case estimates. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio equal to international dollars (int$) 22,518.03 per quality-adjusted life-years gained, the intervention can be classified as very cost-effective. If adopted nationwide, it would help prevent at least 13,400 MIs, 30,500 strokes, and more than 10,600 and 17,100 MI- and stroke-related deaths. The discounted cost savings generated for the health care system by those who consume the fortified milk powder would amount to int$8.1 per person, corresponding to 0.7% of the total yearly health expenditure per capita. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Together with other preventive interventions, the consumption of milk powder fortified with potassium and phytosterols represents a cost-effective strategy to attenuate the rapid increase in cardiovascular burden in Malaysia.

Survival After Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke: A 4-Year Follow-Up at a Mexican Hospital

BACKGROUND

Overall, 75.2% of deaths from stroke occur in low- and middle-income countries. Mexico is a middle-income country with little information about the prognosis of early and late postischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the factors associated with post-stroke survival in the Mexican population.

METHODS

Observational study of consecutive stroke cases involving a first-ever hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke, with patients who received care at the National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery, in Mexico City, between 2009 and 2012. Patients were followed for up to 4 years after the index event. Exploratory analysis of survival was carried out with Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Factors associated with survival time were determined using Cox models.

RESULTS

A total of 300 out of 544 (55.15%) patients had a hemorrhagic stroke, 135 of 544 (24.82%) patients died during the entire follow-up period, and 56 of 544 (10.29%) died in the first 30 days post-stroke (early mortality). Early mortality after stroke was associated with age ≥ 65 years (Adjusted Hazard Ratio - AHR = 2.07, P = .02) and ≥ 2 in-hospital medical complications (AHR = 46.13, P < .01). Late mortality was associated with age ≥ 65 years (AHR = 3.43, P < .01), ≥2 in-hospital medical complications (AHR = 2.55, P < .01), high comorbidity (AHR = 5.43, P < .01), and recurrence (AHR = 1.90, P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke who presented in-hospital medical complications, high comorbidity, and were over 65 years old had higher rates of early and late mortality.

Mortality and Predictors of Death Poststroke: Data from a Multicenter Prospective Cohort of Lebanese Stroke Patients

BACKGROUND

Despite efforts to reduce stroke mortality rates, the disease remains a leading cause of death in Lebanon highlighting the importance of understanding risk factors and subsequent mortality. We examined mortality rates during the first year after acute stroke and the major short-term (1-month) and long-term (1-year) mortality predictors.

METHODS

Data were collected prospectively on hospitalized stroke patients from 8 hospitals in Beirut during a 1-year period. Patients were followed up for 1-year or until death. Mortality rates were assessed at 1-month and at 1-year poststroke and predictors of death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

A total of 191 stroke patients were included. Survival data were completed for over 97% of patients. Cumulative mortality rates were 14.1% at 1-month and 22% at 1-year. Predictors of short-term and long-term mortality in univariate analysis were low socioeconomic status, intensive care unit admission, decreased level of consciousness, stroke severity, and presence of complications. Marital status also predicted short-term mortality, while age greater than 64 years, atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, hypertension, Bamford and TOAST classifications and surgery need were also long-term mortality predictors. In multivariate analysis, stroke severity and presence of complications were predictors of death at 1-month and at 1-year. Low socioeconomic status, dependency in daily living activities, and the presence of comorbidities were additional predictors of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 1 over 5 of patients did not survive 1-year after stroke. There is a need for public awareness campaigns to improve stroke knowledge, warning, and prevention which may reduce this high stroke mortality rate in Lebanon.

Profile and outcome of post stroke patients managed at selected public primary care health centres in Peninsular Malaysia: A retrospective observational study

Data on post stroke outcomes in developing countries are scarce due to uncoordinated healthcare delivery systems. In Malaysia, the national stroke clinical practice guideline does not address transfer of care and longer term post stroke care beyond tertiary care. Hence, post stroke care delivery may be delivered at either tertiary or primary care facilities. This study aimed at describing patients' characteristics and outcomes of post stroke care delivered by the primary care teams at public primary care healthcentres across Peninsular Malaysia. Multi staged sampling was done to select public primary care health centres to recruit post stroke patients. At each health centre, convenience sampling was done to recruit adult patients (≥18 years) who received post stroke care between July-December 2012. Baseline measurements were recorded at recruitment and retrospective medical record review was done simultaneously, for details on medical and / or rehabilitation treatment at health centre. Changes in the measurements for post stroke care were compared using paired t-tests and Wilcoxon Rank test where appropriate. Total of 151 patients were recruited from ten public primary care healthcentres. The mean age at stroke presentation was 55.8 ± 9.8 years. Median duration of follow up was 2.3 (IQR 5.1) years. Majority co-resided with a relative (80.8%), and a family member was primary caregiver (75.%). Eleven percent were current smokers. Almost 71.0% of patients achieved BP ≤ 140/90 mmHg. Only 68.9% of the patients had been referred for neurorehabilitation. Percentage of recorded data was highest for blood pressure (88.1%) while lowest was HbA1c (43.0%). For clinical outcomes, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglyceride level and calculated GFR (eGFR) showed statistically significant changes during follow up (p < 0.05). Post stroke care at public primary care healthcentres showed benefits in stroke risk factors control (i.e. hypertension and dyslipidaemia) but deterioration in renal function. A more structured coordination is needed to optimise post stroke care beyond acute phase management for patients who reside at home in the community.

[Frequency and characteristics of strokes involving the perforating arteries in the Department of Neurology at the Befelatanana General Hospital, Antananarivo]

Introduction

Strokes of the perforating arteries are mainly arteriolopathies. They result in dementia and stroke recurrence. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency and characteristics of these strokes to better prevent these complications.

Methods

We conducted a descriptive, retrospective study in the department of neurology at the Befelatanana general hospital, Antananarivo over the period 01 March-25 September 2015. All patients with abrupt neurological deficit and deep brain involvement on brain scanner were included in the study. The features of strokes involving the perforating arteries were collected. Data were processed with SPSS 20 software.

Results

Out of 172 patients with a stroke, 83(48.25%) had stroke involving the perforating arteries. Stroke involving the perforating arteries affected young people (65.06%) aged less than 65 years and preferentially the male population (61.44%). Haemorrhagic forms accounted for 67.46%. Thirty-one patients (37.34%) had stroke recurrences and, among them, almost a quarter had 2 recurrences (38.70%) in less than a year. All patients with recurrence had dysexecutive disorder (p < 0.0001) and poor antihypertensive medication adherence. Mortality accounted for only 6.02% in patients with onset of these strokes during hospitalization.

Conclusion

Specific neurologic follow-up is necessary after a first stroke involving perforating arteries in order to make an early diagnosis of dementia and to prevent recurrences.

Causes of Death in Different Subtypes of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke

Causes of death in both ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) subtypes are not comprehensively studied. Between 2008 and 2011, we enrolled 11 215 first-ever stroke patients from the Stroke Registry of Chang-Gung Healthcare System and linked these data to the national death registry. The main causes of death in each stroke subtype were assessed. Patients with HS had higher overall mortality than IS (32.0% vs 18.1%, P < .001). In IS subtypes, large-artery atherosclerosis plus cardioembolism had the worst mortality (40.7%, P < .001). Stroke was the leading cause of death in both IS and HS within the first year. Stroke remained the major cause of death in HS, but cancer was the leading cause of death in IS after the first year. After excluding the patients with previous cancer history, cancer was still an important cause of death in IS and HS, particularly in the IS subtypes of small vessel occlusion, stroke of undetermined etiology, and transient ischemic attack.

Independent predictors of medication adherence among Singaporean patients following an ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the independent predictors of medication adherence among Singaporean patients following an ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack.

BACKGROUND

Secondary prevention of stroke includes optimal control over modifiable risk factors, and medication adherence is important in controlling the effect of comorbidities. However, there is a paucity of published literature on the topics of medication adherence among stroke patients, especially in the Asian population.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional, descriptive, correlational study.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty-one patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack were recruited from a tertiary hospital in Singapore. Data collection included the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8 (MMAS-8), General Self-Efficacy Survey (GSES) and Medical Outcome Study Social Support Survey. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to evaluate predictors of medication adherence, measured by MMAS-8.

RESULTS

The mean score of the MMAS-8 was 5.07 (SD = 2.20, range 0-8), and more than 80% of the participants had low (n = 65, 53.7%) or medium (n = 34, 28.1%) levels of medication adherence. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that two factors, namely "understanding the benefits of medications" (β = 0.238, p = .010) and "having suffered from stroke twice or more" (β = 0.235, p = .014), were identified as independent predictors of medication adherence in stroke patients while the other variables were adjusted. These two factors accounted for 12.4% of the variance.

CONCLUSION

Medication adherence was poor in Singaporean patients following an ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. The independent predictors identified in this study will support healthcare professionals to develop tailored intervention to improve medication adherence among this group of patients.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Nurses play an important role in promoting patients' medication adherence. Helping stroke patients understand the long-term benefits of their medications is essential to enhance patients' medication adherence and results in better health outcomes.

Carotid plaque rather than intima-media thickness as a predictor of recurrent vascular events in patients with acute ischemic stroke

Background

To investigate the impacts of carotid plaque and intima-media thickness (IMT) on future vascular events (VEs) in the patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Methods

A total of 479 consecutive Korean patients with acute ischemic stroke were divided into 2 groups according to development of VEs; VE group (65.4 ± 10.9 years) vs no VE group (62.8 ± 13.2 years). VEs were defined as the development of recurrent stroke, coronary events, peripheral arterial disease, and death. Clinical, laboratory, and imaging findings were compared between the groups.

Results

During 105.5 ± 29.0 months of follow up, VEs were developed in 142 patients (29.6%). In univariate analysis, VEs were significantly associated with age, gender, diabetes, renal function, lipid levels, left ventricular function, carotid plaque or IMT. In multivariate analysis, the presence of carotid plaque, diabetes, renal function and male gender were independent predictors of future VEs in the patients with ischemic stroke, but carotid IMT was not a predictor of future VEs. Event free survival was significantly lower in patients with carotid plaque than without carotid plaque on Kaplan-Meier analysis (log rank p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The present study demonstrated that diabetes, impaired renal function, male gender, and the presence of carotid plaque rather than IMT were independent predictors of future VEs in Korean patients with acute ischemic stroke. Active medical management and careful monitoring for the development of recurrent VEs are strongly recommended in patients with acute ischemic stroke and carotid plaque.

Stroke severity may predict causes of readmission within one year in patients with first ischemic stroke event

INTRODUCTION

Readmissions after stroke are costly. Risk assessment using information available upon admission could identify high-risk patients for potential interventions to reduce readmissions. Baseline stroke severity has been suspected to be a factor in readmission; however, the exact nature of the impact has not been adequately understood.

METHODS

Hospitalized adult patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were identified from a nationwide administrative database. Stroke severity was assessed using a validated claims-based stroke severity index. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the relationship between stroke severity and first readmission within one year.

RESULTS

Of the 10,877 patients, 4295 (39.5%) were readmitted in one year. The cumulative risk of readmission was 34.1%, 44.7%, and 62.9% in patients with mild, moderate, and severe stroke, respectively. Patients with greater stroke severity had a significantly higher adjusted risk of first readmission for infection, metabolic disorders, neurological sequelae, and pulmonary diseases, whereas those with lesser stroke severity were prone to first readmission due to accidents. Stroke severity did not affect the risk of first readmission for recurrent stroke/transient ischemic attack, other cardiovascular events, malignancy, ulcers/upper gastrointestinal bleeding, kidney diseases, and others.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke severity in patients with first-ever ischemic stroke not only predicts readmission but also relates to the cause of readmission. Our results might provide important information for tailoring discharge planning to prevent readmissions.

Combining levodopa and virtual reality-based therapy for rehabilitation of the upper limb after acute stroke: pilot study Part II

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a combination of levodopa and virtual reality (VR)-based therapy for the enhancement of upper limb recovery following acute stroke.

METHODS

This was a pilot single-blinded case series of acute stroke patients with upper extremity hemiparesis. Patients were randomised to standard care with concomitant administration of either levodopa alone (control group) or combination therapy consisting of VR-based motivational visuomotor feedback training with levodopa neuromodulation (VR group). Main clinical outcome measures were the Fugl-Meyer Upper Extremity (FM-UE) assessment and Action Research Arm Test (ARAT). Kinematic measurements of affected upper limb movement were evaluated as a secondary measure of improvement.

RESULTS

Of 42 patients screened, four patients were enrolled in each of the two groups. Two patients dropped out from the control group during the trial. Patients receiving combination therapy had clinically significant improvements in FM-UE assessment scores of 16.5 points compared to a 3.0-point improvement among control patients. Similarly, ARAT scores of VR group patients improved by 15.3 points compared to a 10.0-point improvement in the control group. Corresponding improvements were noted in kinematic measures, including hand-path ratio, demonstrating that the quality of upper limb movement improved in the VR group.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that VR-based therapy and pharmacotherapy may be combined for acute stroke rehabilitation. Bedside acquisition of kinematic measurements allows accurate assessment of the quality of limb movement, offering a sensitive clinical tool for quantifying motor recovery during the rehabilitation process after acute stroke.

Development and Application of a Genetic Algorithm for Variable Optimization and Predictive Modeling of Five-Year Mortality Using Questionnaire Data

The problem of selecting important variables for predictive modeling of a specific outcome of interest using questionnaire data has rarely been addressed in clinical settings. In this study, we implemented a genetic algorithm (GA) technique to select optimal variables from questionnaire data for predicting a five-year mortality. We examined 123 questions (variables) answered by 5,444 individuals in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The GA iterations selected the top 24 variables, including questions related to stroke, emphysema, and general health problems requiring the use of special equipment, for use in predictive modeling by various parametric and nonparametric machine learning techniques. Using these top 24 variables, gradient boosting yielded the nominally highest performance (area under curve [AUC] = 0.7654), although there were other techniques with lower but not significantly different AUC. This study shows how GA in conjunction with various machine learning techniques could be used to examine questionnaire data to predict a binary outcome.

Adverse outcome after incident stroke hospitalization for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory

BACKGROUND

Survival after a stroke is lower for Indigenous than other stroke patients in Australia. It is not known whether recurrence is more common for Indigenous patients, or whether their higher prevalence of comorbidity affects their lower survival.

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the stroke recurrence and role of comorbidities in adverse stroke outcomes (recurrence and death) for Indigenous compared with other Australians.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of first hospitalization for stroke (n = 2105) recorded in Northern Territory hospital inpatient data between 1996 and 2011 was conducted. For the multivariable analyses of adverse outcomes, logistic regression was used for case fatality and competing risk analysis for recurrent stroke and long-term death. Comorbidities (identified from inpatient diagnosis data) were analyzed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (modified for stroke outcomes).

RESULTS

Prevalence of comorbidities, case fatality, incidence of re-hospitalization for recurrent stroke, and long-term death rate were higher for Indigenous than non-Indigenous stroke patients. Adjustment for comorbidity in multivariable analyses considerably reduced Indigenous patients' excess risk for case fatality (odds ratio: 1·25, 0·88-1·78) and long-term death (standard hazard ratio: 1·27, 1·01-1·61) (but not recurrence), implying that their excess risk of death was in part due to higher comorbidity prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Indigenous stroke patients have higher prevalence of comorbidities than non-Indigenous stroke patients, which explained part of the disparity in both case fatality and long-term survival but did not explain the disparity in stroke recurrence at all.

Validity of Diagnostic Codes for Acute Stroke in Administrative Databases: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a systematic review of studies reporting on the validity of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for identifying stroke in administrative data.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched (inception to February 2015) for studies: (a) Using administrative data to identify stroke; or (b) Evaluating the validity of stroke codes in administrative data; and (c) Reporting validation statistics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), or Kappa scores) for stroke, or data sufficient for their calculation. Additional articles were located by hand search (up to February 2015) of original papers. Studies solely evaluating codes for transient ischaemic attack were excluded. Data were extracted by two independent reviewers; article quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven studies published from 1976-2015 were included. The sensitivity of ICD-9 430-438/ICD-10 I60-I69 for any cerebrovascular disease was ≥ 82% in most [≥ 50%] studies, and specificity and NPV were both ≥ 95%. The PPV of these codes for any cerebrovascular disease was ≥ 81% in most studies, while the PPV specifically for acute stroke was ≤ 68%. In at least 50% of studies, PPVs were ≥ 93% for subarachnoid haemorrhage (ICD-9 430/ICD-10 I60), 89% for intracerebral haemorrhage (ICD-9 431/ICD-10 I61), and 82% for ischaemic stroke (ICD-9 434/ICD-10 I63 or ICD-9 434&436). For in-hospital deaths, sensitivity was 55%. For cerebrovascular disease or acute stroke as a cause-of-death on death certificates, sensitivity was ≤ 71% in most studies while PPV was ≥ 87%.

CONCLUSIONS

While most cases of prevalent cerebrovascular disease can be detected using 430-438/I60-I69 collectively, acute stroke must be defined using more specific codes. Most in-hospital deaths and death certificates with stroke as a cause-of-death correspond to true stroke deaths. Linking vital statistics and hospitalization data may improve the ascertainment of fatal stroke.

Countrywide Stroke Incidence, Subtypes, Management and Outcome in a Multiethnic Asian Population: The Singapore Stroke Registry — Methodology

Rationale

Because of its rapidly-growing and aging populations, the global burden of stroke will be felt most strongly in Asia. Data from Asia are scarce. Even rarer are data from multiethnic populations.

Aim

The Singapore Stroke Registry is a countrywide registry of risk factors, stroke subtypes, management and outcome of incident and recurrent stroke in multiethnic Singapore.

Methods and design

Using a cold-pursuit design, potential subjects are identified from medical claims, hospital discharge summaries and death certificates. Standardized methods are used for case ascertainment and data recording by trained staff into standardized case report forms. All ages and both genders are included.

Study outcome

Stroke incidence, subtypes and mortality will be calculated. Trend data will be obtained. Inter-ethnic differences will be explored.

Discussion

The Registry has many features of an ‘ideal’ incidence study. Previously unavailable countrywide data on an Asian population will be acquired. The unique data on inter-ethnic differences will help fill knowledge gaps in stroke epidemiology.

Stroke in Asia: geographical variations and temporal trends

Asian countries are in various stages of epidemiological transition and therefore exhibit a great diversity in disease patterns. Collectively, they comprise almost two-third of the world's total mortality due to stroke. The purpose of this review is to explore existing epidemiological data on stroke, highlight the temporal trends in stroke epidemiology in various regions of Asia and predict future patterns based on these observations. Our search revealed that there is a lack of good epidemiological data from most Asian countries. Whatever data exist are not comparable due to lack of standardised methodology for ascertaining stroke and its subtypes. For this and other reasons, these estimates exhibit country-to-country variation and also within-country variability. We have also reviewed temporal trends in stroke incidence and prevalence in 12 Asian countries and the evolution of stroke subtypes over the past two decades. Important observations include a rise in stroke incidence in most Asian countries, an earlier age at onset compared with the West, a relative increase in the proportion of ischaemic strokes and a decline in haemorrhagic strokes. Among ischaemic stroke subtypes, lacunar strokes, which were once the commonest variety, are now declining. Emerging data suggest that large artery atherosclerosis and in particular that of intracranial vessels is the predominant aetiology in most Asian countries. The review also identified important gender differences in terms of stroke risk factors, prevalence and outcomes. There is need for sound epidemiological data from most countries to understand the disease better and plan policy-level interventions to decrease the burden. We identify a need for standard format or guidelines for conducting stroke epidemiological studies especially in developing Asian countries. This region must be identified as a priority region for stroke-related interventions and preventive strategies by global healthcare authorities and organisations.