Accuracy of genomic selection for grain yield and agronomic traits in soft red winter wheat

Ridge regression and deep learning models for genome-wide selection of complex traits in New Mexican Chile peppers

BACKGROUND

Genomewide prediction estimates the genomic breeding values of selection candidates which can be utilized for population improvement and cultivar development. Ridge regression and deep learning-based selection models were implemented for yield and agronomic traits of 204 chile pepper genotypes evaluated in multi-environment trials in New Mexico, USA.

RESULTS

Accuracy of prediction differed across different models under ten-fold cross-validations, where high prediction accuracy was observed for highly heritable traits such as plant height and plant width. No model was superior across traits using 14,922 SNP markers for genomewide selection. Bayesian ridge regression had the highest average accuracy for first pod date (0.77) and total yield per plant (0.33). Multilayer perceptron (MLP) was the most superior for flowering time (0.76) and plant height (0.73), whereas the genomic BLUP model had the highest accuracy for plant width (0.62). Using a subset of 7,690 SNP loci resulting from grouping markers based on linkage disequilibrium coefficients resulted in improved accuracy for first pod date, ten pod weight, and total yield per plant, even under a relatively small training population size for MLP and random forest models. Genomic and ridge regression BLUP models were sufficient for optimal prediction accuracies for small training population size. Combining phenotypic selection and genomewide selection resulted in improved selection response for yield-related traits, indicating that integrated approaches can result in improved gains achieved through selection.

CONCLUSIONS

Accuracy values for ridge regression and deep learning prediction models demonstrate the potential of implementing genomewide selection for genetic improvement in chile pepper breeding programs. Ultimately, a large training data is relevant for improved genomic selection accuracy for the deep learning models.

Genomic prediction of hybrid performance in grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.)

Genomic selection is expected to improve selection efficiency and genetic gain in breeding programs. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of predicting the performance of grain sorghum hybrids using genomic information of parental genotypes. One hundred and two public sorghum inbred parents were genotyped using genotyping-by-sequencing. Ninty-nine of the inbreds were crossed to three tester female parents generating a total of 204 hybrids for evaluation at two environments. The hybrids were sorted in to three sets of 77,59 and 68 and evaluated along with two commercial checks using a randomized complete block design in three replications. The sequence analysis generated 66,265 SNP markers that were used to predict the performance of 204 F1 hybrids resulted from crosses between the parents. Both additive (partial model) and additive and dominance (full model) were constructed and tested using various training population (TP) sizes and cross-validation procedures. Increasing TP size from 41 to 163 increased prediction accuracies for all traits. With the partial model, the five-fold cross validated prediction accuracies ranged from 0.03 for thousand kernel weight (TKW) to 0.58 for grain yield (GY) while it ranged from 0.06 for TKW to 0.67 for GY with the full model. The results suggest that genomic prediction could become an effective tool for predicting the performance of sorghum hybrids based on parental genotypes.

Haplotype-tagged SNPs improve genomic prediction accuracy for Fusarium head blight resistance and yield-related traits in wheat

Linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based haplotyping with subsequent SNP tagging improved the genomic prediction accuracy up to 0.07 and 0.092 for Fusarium head blight resistance and spike width, respectively, across six different models. Genomic prediction is a powerful tool to enhance genetic gain in plant breeding. However, the method is accompanied by various complications leading to low prediction accuracy. One of the major challenges arises from the complex dimensionality of marker data. To overcome this issue, we applied two pre-selection methods for SNP markers viz. LD-based haplotype-tagging and GWAS-based trait-linked marker identification. Six different models were tested with preselected SNPs to predict the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of four traits measured in 419 winter wheat genotypes. Ten different sets of haplotype-tagged SNPs were selected by adjusting the level of LD thresholds. In addition, various sets of trait-linked SNPs were identified with different scenarios from the training-test combined and only from the training populations. The BRR and RR-BLUP models developed from haplotype-tagged SNPs had a higher prediction accuracy for FHB and SPW by 0.07 and 0.092, respectively, compared to the corresponding models developed without marker pre-selection. The highest prediction accuracy for SPW and FHB was achieved with tagged SNPs pruned at weak LD thresholds (r² < 0.5), while stringent LD was required for spike length (SPL) and flag leaf area (FLA). Trait-linked SNPs identified only from training populations failed to improve the prediction accuracy of the four studied traits. Pre-selection of SNPs via LD-based haplotype-tagging could play a vital role in optimizing genomic selection and reducing genotyping costs. Furthermore, the method could pave the way for developing low-cost genotyping methods through customized genotyping platforms targeting key SNP markers tagged to essential haplotype blocks.

Genetics of resistance to septoria nodorum blotch in wheat

Septoria nodorum blotch (SNB) is a foliar disease of wheat caused by the necrotrophic fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum. Research over the last two decades has shown that the wheat-P. nodorum pathosystem mostly follows an inverse gene-for-gene model. The fungus produces necrotrophic effectors (NEs) that interact with specific host gene products encoded by dominant sensitivity (S) genes. When a compatible interaction occurs, a 'defense response' in the host leads to programmed cell death thereby provided dead/dying cells from which the pathogen, being a necrotroph, can acquire nutrients allowing it to grow and sporulate. To date, nine S gene-NE interactions have been characterized in this pathosystem. Five NE-encoding genes, SnTox1, SnTox3, SnToxA, SnTox5, and SnTox267, have been cloned along with three host S genes, Tsn1, Snn1, and Snn3-D1. Studies have shown that P. nodorum hijacks multiple and diverse host targets to cause disease. SNB resistance is often quantitative in nature because multiple compatible interactions usually occur concomitantly. NE gene expression plays a key role in disease severity, and the effect of each compatible interaction can vary depending on the other existing compatible interactions. Numerous SNB-resistance QTL have been identified in addition to the known S genes, and more research is needed to understand the nature of these resistance loci. Marker-assisted elimination of S genes through conventional breeding practices and disruption of S genes using gene editing techniques are both effective strategies for the development of SNB-resistant wheat cultivars, which will become necessary as the global demand for sustenance grows.

Identification of stable QTL controlling multiple yield components in a durum × cultivated emmer wheat population under field and greenhouse conditions

Crop yield gains are needed to keep pace with a growing global population and decreasing resources to produce food. Cultivated emmer wheat is a progenitor of durum wheat and a useful source of genetic variation for trait improvement in durum. Here, we evaluated a recombinant inbred line population derived from a cross between the North Dakota durum wheat variety Divide and the cultivated emmer wheat accession PI 272527 consisting of 219 lines. The population was evaluated in 3 field environments and 2 greenhouse experiments to identify quantitative trait locus associated with 11 yield-related traits that were expressed in a consistent manner over multiple environments. We identified 27 quantitative trait locus expressed in at least 2 field environments, 17 of which were also expressed under greenhouse conditions. Seven quantitative trait locus regions on chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B, 6A, and 7B had pleiotropic effects on multiple yield-related traits. The previously cloned genes Q and FT-B1, which are known to be associated with development and morphology, were found to consistently be associated with multiple traits across environments. PI 272527 contributed beneficial alleles for quantitative trait locus associated with multiple traits, especially for seed morphology quantitative trait locus on chromosomes 1B, 2B, and 6A. Three recombinant inbred lines with increased grain size and weight compared to Divide were identified and demonstrated the potential for improvement of durum wheat through deployment of beneficial alleles from the cultivated emmer parent. The findings from this study provide knowledge regarding stable and robust quantitative trait locus that breeders can use for improving yield in durum wheat.

Genetic analysis of morphological traits in spring wheat from the Northeast of China by a genome-wide association study

Identification of the gene for agronomic traits is important for the wheat marker-assisted selection (MAS) breeding. To identify the new and stable loci for agronomic traits, including flag leaf length (FLL), flag leaf width (FLW), uppermost internode length (UIL), and plant morphology (PM, including prostrate, semi-prostrate, and erect). A total of 251 spring wheat accessions collected from the Northeast of China were used to conduct genome-wide association study (GWAS) by 55K SNP arrays. A total of 30 loci for morphological traits were detected, and each explained 4.8–17.9% of the phenotypic variations. Of these, 13 loci have been reported by previous studies, and the other 17 are novel. We have identified seven genes involved in the signal transduction, cell-cycle progression, and plant development pathway as candidate genes. This study provides new insights into the genetic basis of morphological traits. The associated SNPs and accessions with more of favorable alleles identified in this study could be used to promote the wheat breeding progresses.

Comparison of single-trait and multi-trait genomic predictions on agronomic and disease resistance traits in spring wheat

This study performed comprehensive analyses on the predictive abilities of single-trait and two multi-trait models in three populations. Our results demonstrated the superiority of multi-traits over single-trait models across seven agronomic and four to seven disease resistance traits of different genetic architecture. The predictive ability of multi-trait and single-trait prediction models has not been investigated on diverse traits evaluated under organic and conventional management systems. Here, we compared the predictive abilities of 25% of a testing set that has not been evaluated for a single trait (ST), not evaluated for multi-traits (MT1), and evaluated for some traits but not others (MT2) in three spring wheat populations genotyped either with the wheat 90K single nucleotide polymorphisms array or DArTseq. Analyses were performed on seven agronomic traits evaluated under conventional and organic management systems, four to seven disease resistance traits, and all agronomic and disease resistance traits simultaneously. The average prediction accuracies of the ST, MT1, and MT2 models varied from 0.03 to 0.78 (mean 0.41), from 0.05 to 0.82 (mean 0.47), and from 0.05 to 0.92 (mean 0.67), respectively. The predictive ability of the MT2 model was significantly greater than the ST model in all traits and populations except common bunt with the MT1 model being intermediate between them. The MT2 model increased prediction accuracies over the ST and MT1 models in all traits by 9.0-82.4% (mean 37.3%) and 2.9-82.5% (mean 25.7%), respectively, except common bunt that showed up to 7.7% smaller accuracies in two populations. A joint analysis of all agronomic and disease resistance traits further improved accuracies within the MT1 and MT2 models on average by 21.4% and 17.4%, respectively, as compared to either the agronomic or disease resistance traits, demonstrating the high potential of the multi-traits models in improving prediction accuracies.

A joint learning approach for genomic prediction in polyploid grasses

Poaceae, among the most abundant plant families, includes many economically important polyploid species, such as forage grasses and sugarcane (Saccharum spp.). These species have elevated genomic complexities and limited genetic resources, hindering the application of marker-assisted selection strategies. Currently, the most promising approach for increasing genetic gains in plant breeding is genomic selection. However, due to the polyploidy nature of these polyploid species, more accurate models for incorporating genomic selection into breeding schemes are needed. This study aims to develop a machine learning method by using a joint learning approach to predict complex traits from genotypic data. Biparental populations of sugarcane and two species of forage grasses (Urochloa decumbens, Megathyrsus maximus) were genotyped, and several quantitative traits were measured. High-quality markers were used to predict several traits in different cross-validation scenarios. By combining classification and regression strategies, we developed a predictive system with promising results. Compared with traditional genomic prediction methods, the proposed strategy achieved accuracy improvements exceeding 50%. Our results suggest that the developed methodology could be implemented in breeding programs, helping reduce breeding cycles and increase genetic gains.

Genome-wide association mapping and genomic prediction for pre‑harvest sprouting resistance, low α-amylase and seed color in Iranian bread wheat

BACKGROUND

Pre-harvest sprouting (PHS) refers to a phenomenon, in which the physiologically mature seeds are germinated on the spike before or during the harvesting practice owing to high humidity or prolonged period of rainfall. Pre-harvest sprouting (PHS) remarkably decreases seed quality and yield in wheat; hence it is imperative to uncover genomic regions responsible for PHS tolerance to be used in wheat breeding. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was carried out using 298 bread wheat landraces and varieties from Iran to dissect the genomic regions of PHS tolerance in a well-irrigated environment. Three different approaches (RRBLUP, GBLUP and BRR) were followed to estimate prediction accuracies in wheat genomic selection.

RESULTS

Genomes B, A, and D harbored the largest number of significant marker pairs (MPs) in both landraces (427,017, 328,006, 92,702 MPs) and varieties (370,359, 266,708, 63,924 MPs), respectively. However, the LD levels were found the opposite, i.e., genomes D, A, and B have the highest LD, respectively. Association mapping by using GLM and MLM models resulted in 572 and 598 marker-trait associations (MTAs) for imputed SNPs (- log10 P > 3), respectively. Gene ontology exhibited that the pleitropic MPs located on 1A control seed color, α-Amy activity, and PHS. RRBLUP model indicated genetic effects better than GBLUP and BRR, offering a favorable tool for wheat genomic selection.

CONCLUSIONS

Gene ontology exhibited that the pleitropic MPs located on 1A can control seed color, α-Amy activity, and PHS. The verified markers in the current work can provide an opportunity to clone the underlying QTLs/genes, fine mapping, and genome-assisted selection.Our observations uncovered key MTAs related to seed color, α-Amy activity, and PHS that can be exploited in the genome-mediated development of novel varieties in wheat.

Chile Pepper (Capsicum) Breeding and Improvement in the "Multi-Omics" Era

Chile pepper (Capsicum spp.) is a major culinary, medicinal, and economic crop in most areas of the world. For more than hundreds of years, chile peppers have "defined" the state of New Mexico, USA. The official state question, "Red or Green?" refers to the preference for either red or the green stage of chile pepper, respectively, reflects the value of these important commodities. The presence of major diseases, low yields, decreased acreages, and costs associated with manual labor limit production in all growing regions of the world. The New Mexico State University (NMSU) Chile Pepper Breeding Program continues to serve as a key player in the development of improved chile pepper varieties for growers and in discoveries that assist plant breeders worldwide. Among the traits of interest for genetic improvement include yield, disease resistance, flavor, and mechanical harvestability. While progress has been made, the use of conventional breeding approaches has yet to fully address producer and consumer demand for these traits in available cultivars. Recent developments in "multi-omics," that is, the simultaneous application of multiple omics approaches to study biological systems, have allowed the genetic dissection of important phenotypes. Given the current needs and production constraints, and the availability of multi-omics tools, it would be relevant to examine the application of these approaches in chile pepper breeding and improvement. In this review, we summarize the major developments in chile pepper breeding and present novel tools that can be implemented to facilitate genetic improvement. In the future, chile pepper improvement is anticipated to be more data and multi-omics driven as more advanced genetics, breeding, and phenotyping tools are developed.

Genomic Selection: A Tool for Accelerating the Efficiency of Molecular Breeding for Development of Climate-Resilient Crops

Since the inception of the theory and conceptual framework of genomic selection (GS), extensive research has been done on evaluating its efficiency for utilization in crop improvement. Though, the marker-assisted selection has proven its potential for improvement of qualitative traits controlled by one to few genes with large effects. Its role in improving quantitative traits controlled by several genes with small effects is limited. In this regard, GS that utilizes genomic-estimated breeding values of individuals obtained from genome-wide markers to choose candidates for the next breeding cycle is a powerful approach to improve quantitative traits. In the last two decades, GS has been widely adopted in animal breeding programs globally because of its potential to improve selection accuracy, minimize phenotyping, reduce cycle time, and increase genetic gains. In addition, given the promising initial evaluation outcomes of GS for the improvement of yield, biotic and abiotic stress tolerance, and quality in cereal crops like wheat, maize, and rice, prospects of integrating it in breeding crops are also being explored. Improved statistical models that leverage the genomic information to increase the prediction accuracies are critical for the effectiveness of GS-enabled breeding programs. Study on genetic architecture under drought and heat stress helps in developing production markers that can significantly accelerate the development of stress-resilient crop varieties through GS. This review focuses on the transition from traditional selection methods to GS, underlying statistical methods and tools used for this purpose, current status of GS studies in crop plants, and perspectives for its successful implementation in the development of climate-resilient crops.

Genetic characterization of carrot root shape and size using genome-wide association analysis and genomic-estimated breeding values

The principal phenotypic determinants of market class in carrot-the size and shape of the root-are under primarily additive, but also highly polygenic, genetic control. The size and shape of carrot roots are the primary determinants not only of yield, but also market class. These quantitative phenotypes have historically been challenging to objectively evaluate, and thus subjective visual assessment of market class remains the primary method by which selection for these traits is performed. However, advancements in digital image analysis have recently made possible the high-throughput quantification of size and shape attributes. It is therefore now feasible to utilize modern methods of genetic analysis to investigate the genetic control of root morphology. To this end, this study utilized both genome wide association analysis (GWAS) and genomic-estimated breeding values (GEBVs) and demonstrated that the components of market class are highly polygenic traits, likely under the influence of many small effect QTL. Relatively large proportions of additive genetic variance for many of the component phenotypes support high predictive ability of GEBVs; average prediction ability across underlying market class traits was 0.67. GWAS identified multiple QTL for four of the phenotypes which compose market class: length, aspect ratio, maximum width, and root fill, a previously uncharacterized trait which represents the size-independent portion of carrot root shape. By combining digital image analysis with GWAS and GEBVs, this study represents a novel advance in our understanding of the genetic control of market class in carrot. The immediate practical utility and viability of genomic selection for carrot market class is also described, and concrete guidelines for the design of training populations are provided.

Predicting Fusarium Head Blight Resistance for Advanced Trials in a Soft Red Winter Wheat Breeding Program With Genomic Selection

Many studies have evaluated the effectiveness of genomic selection (GS) using cross-validation within training populations; however, few have looked at its performance for forward prediction within a breeding program. The objectives for this study were to compare the performance of naïve GS (NGS) models without covariates and multi-trait GS (MTGS) models by predicting two years of F_{4: 7} advanced breeding lines for three Fusarium head blight (FHB) resistance traits, deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation, Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK), and severity (SEV) in soft red winter wheat and comparing predictions with phenotypic performance over two years of selection based on selection accuracy and response to selection. On average, for DON, the NGS model correctly selected 69.2% of elite genotypes, while the MTGS model correctly selected 70.1% of elite genotypes compared with 33.0% based on phenotypic selection from the advanced generation. During the 2018 breeding cycle, GS models had the greatest response to selection for DON, FDK, and SEV compared with phenotypic selection. The MTGS model performed better than NGS during the 2019 breeding cycle for all three traits, whereas NGS outperformed MTGS during the 2018 breeding cycle for all traits except for SEV. Overall, GS models were comparable, if not better than phenotypic selection for FHB resistance traits. This is particularly helpful when adverse environmental conditions prohibit accurate phenotyping. This study also shows that MTGS models can be effective for forward prediction when there are strong correlations between traits of interest and covariates in both training and validation populations.

Increased Predictive Accuracy of Multi-Environment Genomic Prediction Model for Yield and Related Traits in Spring Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Genomic selection (GS) has the potential to improve the selection gain for complex traits in crop breeding programs from resource-poor countries. The GS model performance in multi-environment (ME) trials was assessed for 141 advanced breeding lines under four field environments via cross-predictions. We compared prediction accuracy (PA) of two GS models with or without accounting for the environmental variation on four quantitative traits of significant importance, i.e., grain yield (GRYLD), thousand-grain weight, days to heading, and days to maturity, under North and Central Indian conditions. For each trait, we generated PA using the following two different ME cross-validation (CV) schemes representing actual breeding scenarios: (1) predicting untested lines in tested environments through the ME model (ME_CV1) and (2) predicting tested lines in untested environments through the ME model (ME_CV2). The ME predictions were compared with the baseline single-environment (SE) GS model (SE_CV1) representing a breeding scenario, where relationships and interactions are not leveraged across environments. Our results suggested that the ME models provide a clear advantage over SE models in terms of robust trait predictions. Both ME models provided 2-3 times higher prediction accuracies for all four traits across the four tested environments, highlighting the importance of accounting environmental variance in GS models. While the improvement in PA from SE to ME models was significant, the CV1 and CV2 schemes did not show any clear differences within ME, indicating the ME model was able to predict the untested environments and lines equally well. Overall, our results provide an important insight into the impact of environmental variation on GS in smaller breeding programs where these programs can potentially increase the rate of genetic gain by leveraging the ME wheat breeding trials.

Integrated genomic selection for rapid improvement of crops

An increase in the rate of crop improvement is essential for achieving sustained food production and other needs of ever-increasing population. Genomic selection (GS) is a potential breeding tool that has been successfully employed in animal breeding and is being incorporated into plant breeding. GS promises accelerated breeding cycles through a rapid selection of superior genotypes. Numerous empirical and simulation studies on GS and realized impacts on improvement in the crop yields are recently being reported. For a holistic understanding of the technology, we briefly discuss the concept of genetic gain, GS methodology, its current status, advantages of GS over other breeding methods, prediction models, and the factors controlling prediction accuracy in GS. Also, integration of speed breeding and other novel technologies viz. high throughput genotyping and phenotyping technologies for enhancing the efficiency and pace of GS, followed by its prospective applications in varietal development programs is reviewed.

Loci discovery, network-guided approach, and genomic prediction for drought tolerance index in a multi-parent advanced generation intercross (MAGIC) cowpea population

Cowpea is a nutrient-dense legume that significantly contributes to the population's diet in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions of the world. Improving cowpea cultivars to be more resilient to abiotic stress such as drought would be of great importance. The use of a multi-parent advanced generation intercross (MAGIC) population has been shown to be efficient in increasing the frequency of rare alleles that could be associated with important agricultural traits. In addition, drought tolerance index has been reported to be a reliable parameter for assessing crop tolerance to water-deficit conditions. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to evaluate the drought tolerance index for plant growth habit, plant maturity, flowering time, 100-seed weight, and grain yield in a MAGIC cowpea population, to conduct genome-wide association study (GWAS) and identify single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers associated with the drought tolerance indices, to investigate the potential relationship existing between the significant loci associated with the drought tolerance indices, and to conduct genomic selection (GS). These analyses were performed using the existing phenotypic and genotypic data published for the MAGIC population which consisted of 305 F8 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) developed at University of California, Riverside. The results indicated that: (1) large variation in drought tolerance indices existed among the cowpea genotypes, (2) a total of 14, 18, 5, 5, and 35 SNPs were associated with plant growth habit change due to drought stress, and drought tolerance indices for maturity, flowering time, 100-seed weight, and grain yield, respectively, (3) the network-guided approach revealed clear interactions between the loci associated with the drought tolerance traits, and (4) the GS accuracy varied from low to moderate. These results could be applied to improve drought tolerance in cowpea through marker-assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection (GS). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on marker loci associated with drought tolerance indices in cowpea.

Genetic Dissection of Grain Yield of Maize and Yield-Related Traits Through Association Mapping and Genomic Prediction

High yield is the primary objective of maize breeding. Genomic dissection of grain yield and yield-related traits contribute to understanding the yield formation and improving the yield of maize. In this study, two genome-wide association study (GWAS) methods and genomic prediction were made on an association panel of 309 inbred lines. GWAS analyses revealed 22 significant trait-marker associations for grain yield per plant (GYP) and yield-related traits. Genomic prediction analyses showed that reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) outperformed the other four models based on GWAS-derived markers for GYP, ear weight, kernel number per ear and row, ear length, and ear diameter, whereas genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) showed a slight superiority over other modes in most subsets of the trait-associated marker (TAM) for thousand kernel weight and kernel row number. The prediction accuracy could be improved when significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms were fitted as the fixed effects. Integrating information on population structure into the fixed model did not improve the prediction performance. For GYP, the prediction accuracy of TAMs derived from fixed and random model Circulating Probability Unification (FarmCPU) was comparable to that of the compressed mixed linear model (CMLM). For yield-related traits, CMLM-derived markers provided better accuracies than FarmCPU-derived markers in most scenarios. Compared with all markers, TAMs could effectively improve the prediction accuracies for GYP and yield-related traits. For eight traits, moderate- and high-prediction accuracies were achieved using TAMs. Taken together, genomic prediction incorporating prior information detected by GWAS could be a promising strategy to improve the grain yield of maize.

Adoption and Optimization of Genomic Selection To Sustain Breeding for Apricot Fruit Quality

Genomic selection (GS) is a breeding approach which exploits genome-wide information and whose unprecedented success has shaped several animal and plant breeding schemes through delivering their genetic progress. This is the first study assessing the potential of GS in apricot (Prunus armeniaca) to enhance postharvest fruit quality attributes. Genomic predictions were based on a F1 pseudo-testcross population, comprising 153 individuals with contrasting fruit quality traits. They were phenotyped for physical and biochemical fruit metrics in contrasting climatic conditions over two years. Prediction accuracy (PA) varied from 0.31 for glucose content with the Bayesian LASSO (BL) to 0.78 for ethylene production with RR-BLUP, which yielded the most accurate predictions in comparison to Bayesian models and only 10% out of 61,030 SNPs were sufficient to reach accurate predictions. Useful insights were provided on the genetic architecture of apricot fruit quality whose integration in prediction models improved their performance, notably for traits governed by major QTL. Furthermore, multivariate modeling yielded promising outcomes in terms of PA within training partitions partially phenotyped for target traits. This provides a useful framework for the implementation of indirect selection based on easy-to-measure traits. Thus, we highlighted the main levers to take into account for the implementation of GS for fruit quality in apricot, but also to improve the genetic gain in perennial species.

Genomic Selection for Grain Yield in the CIMMYT Wheat Breeding Program-Status and Perspectives

Genomic breeding technologies offer new opportunities for grain yield (GY) improvement in common wheat. In this study, we have evaluated the potential of genomic selection (GS) in breeding for GY in wheat by modeling a large dataset of 48,562 GY observations from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), including 36 yield trials evaluated between 2012 and 2019 in Obregón, Sonora, Mexico. Our key objective was to determine the value that GS can add to the current three-stage yield testing strategy at CIMMYT, and we draw inferences from predictive modeling of GY using 420 different populations, environments, cycles, and model combinations. First, we evaluated the potential of genomic predictions for minimizing the number of replications and lines tested within a site and year and obtained mean prediction accuracies (PAs) of 0.56, 0.5, and 0.42 in Stages 1, 2, and 3 of yield testing, respectively. However, these PAs were similar to the mean pedigree-based PAs indicating that genomic relationships added no value to pedigree relationships in the yield testing stages, characterized by small family-sizes. Second, we evaluated genomic predictions for minimizing GY testing across stages/years in Obregón and observed mean PAs of 0.41, 0.31, and 0.37, respectively when GY in the full irrigation bed planting (FI BP), drought stress (DS), and late-sown heat stress environments were predicted across years using genotype × environment (G × E) interaction models. Third, we evaluated genomic predictions for minimizing the number of yield testing environments and observed that in Stage 2, the FI BP, full irrigation flat planting and early-sown heat stress environments (mean PA of 0.37 ± 0.12) and the reduced irrigation and DS environments (mean PA of 0.45 ± 0.07) had moderate predictabilities among them. However, in both predictions across years and environments, the PAs were inconsistent across years and the G × E models had no advantage over the baseline model with environment and line effects. Overall, our results provide excellent insights into the predictability of a quantitative trait like GY and will have important implications on the future design of GS for GY in wheat breeding programs globally.

Retrospective Quantitative Genetic Analysis and Genomic Prediction of Global Wheat Yields

Breeding for grain yield (GY) in bread wheat at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) involves three-stage testing at Obregon, Mexico in different selection environments (SEs). To understand the efficiency of selection in the SEs, we performed a large retrospective quantitative genetics study using CIMMYT's yield trials evaluated in the SEs (2013-2014 to 2017-2018), the South Asia Bread Wheat Genomic Prediction Yield Trials (SABWGPYTs) evaluated in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh (2014-2015 to 2017-2018), and the Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trials (ESWYTs) evaluated in several sites globally (2003-2004 to 2016-2017). First, we compared the narrow-sense heritabilities in the Obregon SEs and target sites and observed that the mean heritability in the SEs was 44.2 and 92.3% higher than the mean heritabilities in the SABWGPYT and ESWYT sites, respectively. Second, we observed significant genetic correlations between a SE in Obregon and all the five SABWGPYT sites and 65.1% of the ESWYT sites. Third, we observed high ratios of response to indirect selection in the SEs of Obregon with a mean of 0.80 ± 0.21 and 2.6 ± 5.4 in the SABWGPYT and ESWYT sites, respectively. Furthermore, our results also indicated that for all the SABWGPYT sites and 82% of the ESWYT sites, a response greater than 0.5 can be achieved by indirect selection for GY in Obregon. We also performed genomic prediction for GY in the target sites using the performance of the same lines in the SEs of Obregon and observed moderate mean prediction accuracies of 0.24 ± 0.08 and 0.28 ± 0.08 in the SABWGPYT and ESWYT sites, respectively using the genotype x environment (GxE) model. However, we observed similar accuracies using the baseline model with environment and line effects and no advantage of modeling GxE interactions. Overall, this study provides important insights into the suitability of the Obregon SEs in breeding for GY, while the variable genomic predictabilities of GY and the high year-to-year GY fluctuations reported, highlight the importance of multi-environment testing across time and space to stave off GxE induced uncertainties in varietal yields.

Genomic Selection in Winter Wheat Breeding Using a Recommender Approach

Achieving optimal predictive ability is key to increasing the relevance of implementing genomic selection (GS) approaches in plant breeding programs. The potential of an item-based collaborative filtering (IBCF) recommender system in the context of multi-trait, multi-environment GS has been explored. Different GS scenarios for IBCF were evaluated for a diverse population of winter wheat lines adapted to the Pacific Northwest region of the US. Predictions across years through cross-validations resulted in improved predictive ability when there is a high correlation between environments. Using multiple spectral traits collected from high-throughput phenotyping resulted in better GS accuracies for grain yield (GY) compared to using only single traits for predictions. Trait adjustments through various Bayesian regression models using genomic information from SNP markers was the most effective in achieving improved accuracies for GY, heading date, and plant height among the GS scenarios evaluated. Bayesian LASSO had the highest predictive ability compared to other models for phenotypic trait adjustments. IBCF gave competitive accuracies compared to a genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP) model for predicting different traits. Overall, an IBCF approach could be used as an alternative to traditional prediction models for important target traits in wheat breeding programs.

Gains through selection for grain yield in a winter wheat breeding program

Increased genetic gain for complex traits in plant breeding programs can be achieved through different selection strategies. The objective of this study was to compare potential gains for grain yield in a winter wheat breeding program through estimating response to selection R values across several selection approaches including phenotypic (PS), marker-based (MS), genomic (GS), and a combination of PS and GS (PS+GS). Ten populations of Washington State University (WSU) winter wheat breeding lines including a diversity panel and F5 and double haploid lines evaluated from 2015 to 2019 growing seasons for grain yield in Lind and Pullman, WA, USA were used in the study. Selection was conducted by selecting the top 20% of lines based on observed yield (PS strategy), genomic estimated breeding values (GS), presence of yield "enhancing" alleles of the most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers identified from genome-wide association mapping (MS), and high observed yield and estimated breeding values (PS+GS). Overall, PS compared to other individual selection strategies (MS and GS) showed the highest mean response (R = 0.61) within the same environment. When combined with GS, a 23% improvement in R for yield was observed, indicating that gains could be improved by complementing traditional PS with GS within the same environment. Validating selection strategies in different environments resulted in low to negative R values indicating the effects of genotype-by-environment interactions for grain yield. MS was not successful in terms of R relative to the other selection approaches; using this strategy resulted in a significant (P < 0.05) decrease in response to selection compared with the other approaches. An integrated PS+GS approach could result in optimal genetic gain within the same environment, whereas a PS strategy might be a viable option for grain yield validated in different environments. Altogether, we demonstrated that gains through increased response to selection for yield could be achieved in the WSU winter wheat breeding program by implementing different selection strategies either exclusively or in combination.

Development and Proof-of-Concept Application of Genome-Enabled Selection for Pea Grain Yield under Severe Terminal Drought

Terminal drought is the main stress limiting pea (Pisum sativum L.) grain yield in Mediterranean environments. This study aimed to investigate genotype × environment (GE) interaction patterns, define a genomic selection (GS) model for yield under severe drought based on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers from genotyping-by-sequencing, and compare GS with phenotypic selection (PS) and marker-assisted selection (MAS). Some 288 lines belonging to three connected RIL populations were evaluated in a managed-stress (MS) environment of Northern Italy, Marchouch (Morocco), and Alger (Algeria). Intra-environment, cross-environment, and cross-population predictive ability were assessed by Ridge Regression best linear unbiased prediction (rrBLUP) and Bayesian Lasso models. GE interaction was particularly large across moderate-stress and severe-stress environments. In proof-of-concept experiments performed in a MS environment, GS models constructed from MS environment and Marchouch data applied to independent material separated top-performing lines from mid- and bottom-performing ones, and produced actual yield gains similar to PS. The latter result would imply somewhat greater GS efficiency when considering same selection costs, in partial agreement with predicted efficiency results. GS, which exploited drought escape and intrinsic drought tolerance, exhibited 18% greater selection efficiency than MAS (albeit with non-significant difference between selections) and moderate to high cross-population predictive ability. GS can be cost-efficient to raise yields under severe drought.

Multi-trait Genomic Prediction Model Increased the Predictive Ability for Agronomic and Malting Quality Traits in Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)

Plant breeders regularly evaluate multiple traits across multiple environments, which opens an avenue for using multiple traits in genomic prediction models. We assessed the potential of multi-trait (MT) genomic prediction model through evaluating several strategies of incorporating multiple traits (eight agronomic and malting quality traits) into the prediction models with two cross-validation schemes (CV1, predicting new lines with genotypic information only and CV2, predicting partially phenotyped lines using both genotypic and phenotypic information from correlated traits) in barley. The predictive ability was similar for single (ST-CV1) and multi-trait (MT-CV1) models to predict new lines. However, the predictive ability for agronomic traits was considerably increased when partially phenotyped lines (MT-CV2) were used. The predictive ability for grain yield using the MT-CV2 model with other agronomic traits resulted in 57% and 61% higher predictive ability than ST-CV1 and MT-CV1 models, respectively. Therefore, complex traits such as grain yield are better predicted when correlated traits are used. Similarly, a considerable increase in the predictive ability of malting quality traits was observed when correlated traits were used. The predictive ability for grain protein content using the MT-CV2 model with both agronomic and malting traits resulted in a 76% higher predictive ability than ST-CV1 and MT-CV1 models. Additionally, the higher predictive ability for new environments was obtained for all traits using the MT-CV2 model compared to the MT-CV1 model. This study showed the potential of improving the genomic prediction of complex traits by incorporating the information from multiple traits (cost-friendly and easy to measure traits) collected throughout breeding programs which could assist in speeding up breeding cycles.

Genomic Prediction for Grain Yield and Yield-Related Traits in Chinese Winter Wheat

Genomic selection (GS) is a strategy to predict the genetic merits of individuals using genome-wide markers. However, GS prediction accuracy is affected by many factors, including missing rate and minor allele frequency (MAF) of genotypic data, GS models, trait features, etc. In this study, we used one wheat population to investigate prediction accuracies of various GS models on yield and yield-related traits from various quality control (QC) scenarios, missing genotype imputation, and genome-wide association studies (GWAS)-derived markers. Missing rate and MAF of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers were two major factors in QC. Five missing rate levels (0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%) and three MAF levels (0%, 5%, and 10%) were considered and the five-fold cross validation was used to estimate the prediction accuracy. The results indicated that a moderate missing rate level (20% to 40%) and MAF (5%) threshold provided better prediction accuracy. Under this QC scenario, prediction accuracies were further calculated for imputed and GWAS-derived markers. It was observed that the accuracies of the six traits were related to their heritability and genetic architecture, as well as the GS prediction model. Moore–Penrose generalized inverse (GenInv), ridge regression (RidgeReg), and random forest (RForest) resulted in higher prediction accuracies than other GS models across traits. Imputation of missing genotypic data had marginal effect on prediction accuracy, while GWAS-derived markers improved the prediction accuracy in most cases. These results demonstrate that QC on missing rate and MAF had positive impact on the predictability of GS models. We failed to identify one single combination of QC scenarios that could outperform the others for all traits and GS models. However, the balance between marker number and marker quality is important for the deployment of GS in wheat breeding. GWAS is able to select markers which are mostly related to traits, and therefore can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of GS.

Genomic Prediction and Indirect Selection for Grain Yield in US Pacific Northwest Winter Wheat Using Spectral Reflectance Indices from High-Throughput Phenotyping

Secondary traits from high-throughput phenotyping could be used to select for complex target traits to accelerate plant breeding and increase genetic gains. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of using spectral reflectance indices (SRI) for indirect selection of winter-wheat lines with high yield potential and to assess the effects of including secondary traits on the prediction accuracy for yield. A total of five SRIs were measured in a diversity panel, and F5 and doubled haploid wheat breeding populations planted between 2015 and 2018 in Lind and Pullman, WA. The winter-wheat panels were genotyped with 11,089 genotyping-by-sequencing derived markers. Spectral traits showed moderate to high phenotypic and genetic correlations, indicating their potential for indirect selection of lines with high yield potential. Inclusion of correlated spectral traits in genomic prediction models resulted in significant (p < 0.001) improvement in prediction accuracy for yield. Relatedness between training and test populations and heritability were among the principal factors affecting accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of using spectral indices as proxy measurements for selecting lines with increased yield potential and for improving prediction accuracy to increase genetic gains for complex traits in US Pacific Northwest winter wheat.