A conceptual framework for prognostic research

Prognostic Factors and Changes in Pain, Physical Functioning, and Participation in Patients With Hip and/or Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to systematically synthesize literature on prognostic factors of changes in either direction (ie, worsening or improvement) in pain, physical functioning, and participation in patients with knee and/or hip osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

Studies included in two preceding reviews underwent full-text screening for inclusion in the current review. Additionally, an extensive literature search was conducted in five databases. Title/abstract screening was performed using an active learning program. Inclusion criteria comprised patients diagnosed with knee and/or hip OA, with the dependent variable assessing pain, physical functioning, or participation. Potential associated prognostic factors were measured as independent variables. The methodologic quality of studies was assessed with the Hayden criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 31 studies were included in this systematic review. In patients with knee OA, pain worsening was associated with lower physical functioning (strong evidence) and with higher body mass index, ethnicity, and a higher comorbidity count (moderate evidence). Also, in patients with knee OA, pain improvement was associated with less pain at baseline (moderate evidence). In patients with knee and/or hip OA, worsening of physical functioning exhibited associations with higher body mass index, more pain, more hip pain, a higher comorbidity count, higher avoidance of activities (strong evidence), and ethnicity (moderate evidence). In patients with knee OA, improvement in physical functioning showed an association with higher vitality (moderate evidence). Regarding the remaining prognostic factors, there is weak, inconclusive, or inconsistent evidence for an association with the outcomes. In patients with hip OA, only weak evidence was found for three factors predicting a change in physical functioning.

CONCLUSION

This review encompasses prognostic factors associated with changes in either direction (ie, worsening or improvement) in pain, physical functioning, and participation. The results are consistent with other reviews. Future research should place a stronger emphasis on patients with hip OA and participation as an outcome.

Physical measures of physical functioning as prognostic factors in predicting outcomes for neck and thoracic pain: Protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Spinal pain is prevalent and burdensome worldwide. A large proportion of patients with neck and thoracic pain experience chronic symptoms, which can significantly impact their physical functioning. Therefore, it is important to understand factors predicting outcome to inform effective examination and treatment. Knowledge of physical measures of physical functioning as prognostic factors can enhance patient-centered care and aid decision-making. The evidence regarding physical outcome measures as prognostic factors for neck and thoracic pain is unclear. The objective of this study is to summarize the evidence for physical outcome measures of physical functioning as prognostic factors in predicting outcomes in people with neck and thoracic pain.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This systematic review follows Cochrane guidelines and aligns with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P). Included studies will be prospective longitudinal cohort studies in which physical measures of physical functioning are explored as prognostic factors for adults with neck and thoracic pain. A comprehensive search will be performed in key databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Web of Science) and the grey literature, with hand searches of key journals, and the reference lists of included studies. Two reviewers will independently perform study selection, data extraction, risk of bias assessment (QUIPS, Quality in Prognostic Studies tool), and quality assessment (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation).

IMPLICATIONS

This systematic review will identify physical measures of physical functioning prognostic factors for neck and thoracic pain populations. Findings will inform researchers about gaps in existing evidence, and clinicians about factors to aid their clinical decisions and to enhance the overall quality of care for individuals with neck and thoracic pain.

Predictors of outcome following psychological therapy for depression and anxiety in an urban primary care service: a naturalistic Bayesian prediction modeling approach

BACKGROUND

England's primary care service for psychological therapy (Improving Access to Psychological Therapies [IAPT]) treats anxiety and depression, with a target recovery rate of 50%. Identifying the characteristics of patients who achieve recovery may assist in optimizing future treatment. This naturalistic cohort study investigated pre-therapy characteristics as predictors of recovery and improvement after IAPT therapy.

METHODS

In a cohort of patients attending an IAPT service in South London, we recruited 263 participants and conducted a baseline interview to gather extensive pre-therapy characteristics. Bayesian prediction models and variable selection were used to identify baseline variables prognostic of good clinical outcomes. Recovery (primary outcome) was defined using (IAPT) service-defined score thresholds for both depression (Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-9]) and anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder [GAD-7]). Depression and anxiety outcomes were also evaluated as standalone (PHQ-9/GAD-7) scores after therapy. Prediction model performance metrics were estimated using cross-validation.

RESULTS

Predictor variables explained 26% (recovery), 37% (depression), and 31% (anxiety) of the variance in outcomes, respectively. Variables prognostic of recovery were lower pre-treatment depression severity and not meeting criteria for obsessive compulsive disorder. Post-therapy depression and anxiety severity scores were predicted by lower symptom severity and higher ratings of health-related quality of life (EuroQol questionnaire [EQ5D]) at baseline.

CONCLUSION

Almost a third of the variance in clinical outcomes was explained by pre-treatment symptom severity scores. These constructs benefit from being rapidly accessible in healthcare services. If replicated in external samples, the early identification of patients who are less likely to recover may facilitate earlier triage to alternative interventions.

Modifiable prognostic factors of high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders: a replication study

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal disorders are an extensive burden to society, yet few studies have explored and replicated modifiable prognostic factors associated with high societal costs. This study aimed to replicate previously identified associations between nine modifiable prognostic factors and high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders.

METHODS

Pooled data from a three-arm randomised controlled trial with 6 months of follow-up were used, including 509 participants on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders in Norway. Consistent with the identification study, the primary outcome was societal costs dichotomised as high (top 25th percentile) or low. Societal costs included healthcare utilization (primary, secondary, and tertiary care) and productivity loss (absenteeism, work assessment allowance and disability benefits) collected from public records. Binary unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression analyses were used to replicate previously identified associations between each modifiable prognostic factor and having high costs.

RESULTS

Adjusted for selected covariates, a lower degree of return-to-work expectancy was associated with high societal costs in both the identification and replication sample. Depressive symptoms and health literacy showed no prognostic value in both the identification and replication sample. There were inconsistent results with regards to statistical significance across the identification and replication sample for pain severity, self-perceived health, sleep quality, work satisfaction, disability, and long-lasting disorder expectation. Similar results were found when high costs were related to separately healthcare utilization and productivity loss.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully replicated the association between return-to-work expectancy and high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders. Other factors showed no prognostic value or inconsistent results.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03871712, 12th of March 2019.

Predictive factors and dose-response effect of rehabilitation for upper limb induced recovery after stroke: systematic review with proportional meta-analyses

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To date, factors with predictive value for upper limb (UL) recovery after stroke are acknowledged, but little is known on clinical features predicting outcome in response to rehabilitation. The purpose of this review is to investigate whether any factor allows identification of Responders to rehabilitation, and whether clinically important recovery of motor function relies on modalities and dose of intervention received, at different times after stroke.

METHODS

A systematic review with proportional meta-analysis was conducted. Longitudinal single-cohort studies on patients undergoing rehabilitation after stroke were included. Predictive features investigated in the included studies were reported. The primary outcome was the Fugl-Meyer Assessment for Upper Extremity, and effect sizes (ES) of different rehabilitation doses were calculated.

RESULTS

Only 6% of the included studies (n = 141) investigated predictive factors. Studies providing more than 30 hours of therapy induced small to large clinical effect (ES from 0.38 to 0.88). Task-oriented approach led to the largest effect, both in the subacute (ES = 0.88) and chronic (ES = 0.71) phases. Augmenting interventions provided higher effect in the chronic rather than subacute phase. Integrity of the corticospinal tract, preservation of arm motor function and specific genetic biomarkers were found to be associated with motor recovery DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Trials on motor recovery after stroke should incorporate analysis of factors associated with rehabilitation outcomes. Task-oriented interventions should be delivered more than 30 hours (high dose) to induce the greatest improvement.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

Systematic Review Registration Number PROSPERO CRD42021258188. CONTRIBUTION OF THE PAPER.

[Preoperative risk prediction models for noncardiac surgery patients : Interpret and use risk scores correctly]

Risk prediction models are an established component of the preoperative evaluation. In its guidelines the European Society for Cardiology proposes several risk scores but the benefit of these is mostly unclear for clinicians. This article describes the individual steps in the preparation of a valid prediction model with a focus on the parameters, discrimination, calibration and external validation. The clinical benefits of the risk scores proposed in the guidelines with respect to these parameters was investigated. All proposed risk scores appear to show a good discrimination in the validation cohorts. Only a few reliable data for a good calibration could be compiled. The external validity of the individual models is unclear. The general benefit of the risk scores cannot be recommended as data for calibration or discrimination in external cohorts are lacking. A precise estimation of the risk cannot be expected.

Predictive factors associated with Bile culture positivity And phenotypiCal antIbiogram resistance patterns in patients taken to LaparOscopic cholecystectomy (BACILO): protocol for a prospective observational cohort study and development of a prognostic prediction model

INTRODUCTION

Bile fluid is aseptic under normal conditions; however, in the presence of cholecystitis, its susceptibility to bacterial colonisation varies, with reported rates of 20%-70% of cases. This process is referred to as bactibilia and/or bacteriobilia and can be considered a secondary complication of biliary stasis and cholecystitis in general. In the management of acute cholecystitis, the antibiotic regimen should be prescribed based on the presumed pathogens involved, taking into consideration the risk factors for resistance patterns according to demographics and local exposure. The aim of this study is to determine the predictive factors for bile culture positivity and antibiotic resistance in patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy in the Méderi Hospital Network. We hope to develop a predictive model that allows us to better guide antibiotic therapy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a prospective observational cohort study with prognostic prediction model. Patients who will undergo laparoscopic cholecystectomy and have bile cultures taken in the Méderi Hospital Network during the study period will be included. The dependent variables will be positive bile culture and antibiotic resistance, and the predictive variables will be age, presence of diabetes, diagnosis of choledocholithiasis, diagnosis of cholecystitis and severity of cholecystitis according to the Tokyo criteria. The minimum sample size has been calculated at 703 patients. Follow-up will continue until a control appointment 15 days after the procedure. The primary outcomes are bile culture positivity and phenotypical antibiogram resistance. For each outcome, a multivariate logistic regression will be performed using frequentist and Bayesian prediction techniques.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Méderi network research department committee (CIMED) and by Universidad del Rosario's Research Ethics Committee (CEI-UR; DVO005 2555-CV1837). Written informed consent is required for participation. The results will be disseminated through the submission of an academic article to a high-impact scientific journal, presentations at academic conferences, and sharing with our institution's faculty to inform antimicrobial therapy management based on local epidemiological data.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT06314399.

Prognostic prediction models for adverse birth outcomes: A systematic review

Background

Despite progress in reducing maternal and child mortality worldwide, adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth, low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), and stillbirth continue to be a major global health challenge. Developing a prediction model for adverse birth outcomes allows for early risk detection and prevention strategies. In this systematic review, we aimed to assess the performance of existing prediction models for adverse birth outcomes and provide a comprehensive summary of their findings.

Methods

We used the Population, Index prediction model, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, and Setting (PICOTS) approach to retrieve published studies from PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, African Journals Online, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library. We used WorldCat, Google, and Google Scholar to find the grey literature. We retrieved data before 1 March 2022. Data were extracted using CHecklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies. We assessed the risk of bias with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment tool. We descriptively reported the results in tables and graphs.

Results

We included 115 prediction models with the following outcomes: composite adverse birth outcomes (n = 6), LBW (n = 17), SGA (n = 23), preterm birth (n = 71), and stillbirth (n = 9). The sample sizes ranged from composite adverse birth outcomes (n = 32-549), LBW (n = 97-27 233), SGA (n = 41-116 070), preterm birth (n = 31-15 883 784), and stillbirth (n = 180-76 629). Only nine studies were conducted on low- and middle-income countries. 10 studies were externally validated. Risk of bias varied across studies, in which high risk of bias was reported on prediction models for SGA (26.1%), stillbirth (77.8%), preterm birth (31%), LBW (23.5%), and composite adverse birth outcome (33.3%). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was the most used metric to describe model performance. The AUROC ranged from 0.51 to 0.83 in studies that reported predictive performance for preterm birth. The AUROC for predicting SGA, LBW, and stillbirth varied from 0.54 to 0.81, 0.60 to 0.84, and 0.65 to 0.72, respectively. Maternal clinical features were the most utilised prognostic markers for preterm and LBW prediction, while uterine artery pulsatility index was used for stillbirth and SGA prediction.

Conclusions

A varied prognostic factors and heterogeneity between studies were found to predict adverse birth outcomes. Prediction models using consistent prognostic factors, external validation, and adaptation of future risk prediction models for adverse birth outcomes was recommended at different settings.

Registration

PROSPERO CRD42021281725.

Prediction models for identifying medication overuse or medication overuse headache in migraine patients: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Migraine is a debilitating neurological disorder that presents significant management challenges, resulting in underdiagnosis and inappropriate treatments, leaving patients at risk of medication overuse (MO). MO contributes to disease progression and the development of medication overuse headache (MOH). Predicting which migraine patients are at risk of MO/MOH is crucial for effective management. Thus, this systematic review aims to review and critique available prediction models for MO/MOH in migraine patients.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted using Embase, Scopus, Medline/PubMed, ACM Digital Library, and IEEE databases from inception to April 22, 2024. The risk of bias was assessed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool.

RESULTS

Out of 1,579 articles, six studies with nine models met the inclusion criteria. Three studies developed new prediction models, while the remaining validated existing scores. Most studies utilized cross-sectional and prospective data collection in specific headache settings and migraine types. The models included up to 53 predictors, with sample sizes from 17 to 1,419 participants. Traditional statistical models (logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression) were used in two studies, while one utilized a machine learning (ML) technique (support vector machines). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was employed to validate existing scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for the ML model (0.83) outperformed the traditional statistical model (0.62) in internal validation. The AUROCs ranged from 0.84 to 0.85 for the validation of existing scores. Common predictors included age and gender; genetic data and questionnaire evaluations were also included. All studies demonstrated a high risk of bias in model construction and high concerns regarding applicability to participants.

CONCLUSION

This review identified promising results for MO/MOH prediction models in migraine patients, although the field remains limited. Future research should incorporate important risk factors, assess discrimination and calibration, and perform external validation. Further studies with robust designs, appropriate settings, high-quality and quantity data, and rigorous methodologies are necessary to advance this field.

A 15-Year Bibliometric Analysis of Sports Medicine Studies in The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery: A Systematic Review

Background

Orthopaedic sports medicine is among the most popular subspecialties. Understanding the trends in sports medicine research over time can offer insight into progress and innovation within the field. The purpose of this study was to assess both the quality of the current literature and trends in gender diversity and inclusion by evaluating publishing characteristics of sports medicine studies in The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery-American Volume (JBJS-A) from 2007 to 2021.

Methods

Sports medicine studies in JBJS-A from 2007 to 2021 were identified using JBJS subspeciality tags for "sports medicine" articles and organized by study type, number of authors, sex of the authors, academic degree(s) of the first and last authors, level of evidence, country of publication, citations, and use of patient-reported outcomes (PROM).

Results

A total of 784 studies were reviewed, and 513 met inclusion criteria. Clinical therapeutic studies were the most common publication (48%). There was an increase in the publication of clinical prognostic studies (17%-25%, p = 0.037) and a significant increase in the use of PROM measures over time (13%-47%, p < 0.001). The total number of authors increased over the study period (4.8-6.3), but there was no significant increase in female authorship. Only 15% of the 784 studies included a female author, with an average of 0.8 female authors per article (range 0-8) compared with 4.6 males (range 1-14).

Conclusion

The significant increase in the use of PROMs in sports medicine studies indicates that the quality of research has improved over the 15-year period. The gender disparity in authorship has remained stagnant. Only 11% of all first authors and 9% of senior authors were female. The number of included international studies improved over time; however, the United States remains the most prolific publisher. Despite these areas of growth, this study suggests that there is room for improvement of authorship gender diversity in orthopaedic sports medicine research.

Level of Evidence

Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Survival rates and factors associated with survival and laminitis of horses with acute diarrhoea admitted to referral institutions

BACKGROUND

Clinicopathological findings and their association with the outcome and development of laminitis in horses with acute diarrhoea has not been investigated in a multicentre study across different geographic regions.

OBJECTIVES

Describe and compare clinicopathologic findings of diarrhoeic horses between different geographic regions, survival rates and factors associated with non-survival and laminitis.

STUDY DESIGN

Multicentre retrospective case series.

METHODS

Information from horses with acute diarrhoea presenting to participating institutions between 2016 and 2020 was collected, and clinicopathological data were compared between surviving and non-surviving horses and horses that did and did not develop laminitis. Survival rates and seasonal and geographic differences were also investigated.

RESULTS

One thousand four hundred thirty-eight horses from 26 participating institutions from 4 continents were included; 76% survived to discharge with no differences identified between geographic regions. The survival proportion of horses with SIRS and creatinine concentrations > 159 μmol/L was 55% (154/279) compared with 81% (358/437) for those with SIRS and creatinine concentrations < 159 μmol/L (p < 0.001). The survival proportion of horses with SIRS that had an L-lactate concentration > 2.8 mmol/L was 59% (175/298) compared with 81% (240/296) in horses with SIRS and L-lactate concentration < 2.8 mmol/L (p < 0.001). The proportion of horses that developed laminitis was lower in Europe (4%, 19/479) compared with North America (8%, 52/619), Australia (8%, 12/138) and Latin America (11%, 16/146) (p < 0.05). More horses developed laminitis in the summer (46%, 39/85) compared with winter (18%, 15/85), spring (18%, 15/85) and fall (19%, 16/85) (p < 0.01). Horses with laminitis had greater odds of non-survival than those without laminitis (OR: 3.73, 95% CI: 2.47-5.65).

MAIN LIMITATIONS

Not all variables were available for all horses due to the retrospective nature.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicopathological findings in horses with acute diarrhoea and their association with survival are similar across geographic regions. However, developing laminitis secondary to diarrhoea is less common in Europe. In addition, factors associated with non-survival were indicative of disease severity and subsequent cardiovascular compromise.

The usefulness of patient-reported outcome measures in decision making in Chagas cardiomyopathy: a scoping review

Chagas cardiomyopathy (ChC) presents many biopsychosocial complexities, highlighting the need to have patient self-report questions. This study demonstrates the scope of the use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in patients with ChC and highlights the main research gaps. This is a scoping review and the search strategy was performed in the Online Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System (MEDLINE), Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), Accumulated Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Central, Latin American Literature and Caribbean in Health Sciences (LILACS) and Diagnostic Test Accuracy (DITA). The search identified 4484 studies and 20 studies met the inclusion criteria. The Short-Form of 36 items (SF-36) had potential prognostic value and the ability to identify systolic dysfunction. The Human Activity Profile was able to screen for functional impairment, and the New York Heart Association showed potential prognostic value. The SF-36 and Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire were responsive to interventions. The pharmaceutical care affected adherence to treatment as assessed by the Morisky score and also for SF-36. Despite the increased use of PROMs, there are still a large number of gaps in the literature, and further studies using PROMs are needed.

Prognostic Factors and Treatment Effect Modifiers for Physical Health, Opioid Prescription, and Health Care Utilization in Patients With Musculoskeletal Disorders in Primary Care: Exploratory Secondary Analysis of the STEMS Randomized Trial of Direct Access to Physical Therapist-Led Care

OBJECTIVE

The aims of the study were to identify prognostic factors associated with health care outcomes in patients with musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in primary care and to determine whether characteristics associated with choice of care modify treatment effects of a direct-access physical therapist-led pathway in addition to general practitioner (GP)-led care compared to GP-led care alone.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of a 2-parallel-arm, cluster randomized controlled trial involving general practices in the United Kingdom was conducted. Practices were randomized to continue offering GP-led care or to also offer a direct-access physical therapist-led pathway. Data from adults with MSK conditions who completed the 6-month follow-up questionnaire were analyzed. Outcomes included physical health, opioid prescription, and self-reported health care utilization over 6 months. Treatment effect modifiers were selected a priori from associations in observational studies. Multivariable regression models identified potential prognostic factors, and interaction analysis tested for potential treatment effect modifiers.

RESULTS

Analysis of 767 participants indicated that baseline pain self-efficacy, pain severity, and having low back pain statistically predicted outcomes at 6 months. Higher pain self-efficacy scores at baseline were associated with improved physical health scores, reduced opioid prescription, and less health care utilization. Higher bodily pain at baseline and having low back pain were associated with worse physical health scores and increased opioid prescription. Main interaction analyses did not reveal that patients' age, level of education, duration of symptoms, or MSK presentation influenced response to treatment, but visual trends suggested those in the older age group proceeded to fewer opioid prescriptions and utilized less health care when offered direct access to physical therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MSK conditions with lower levels of pain self-efficacy, higher pain severity, and presenting with low back pain have less favorable clinical and health care outcomes in primary care. Prespecified characteristics did not modify the treatment effect of the offer of a direct-access physical therapist-led pathway compared to GP-led care.

IMPACT

Patients with MSK conditions receiving primary care in the form of direct-access physical therapist-led or GP-led care who have lower levels of self-efficacy, higher pain severity, and low back pain are likely to have a less favorable prognosis. Age and duration of symptoms should be explored as potential patient characteristics that modify the treatment response to a direct-access physical therapist-led model of care.

Broadening our understanding of injury mechanisms to include at-risk situations: an overview of potential injuries at the FIFA men's World Cup Qatar 2022TM

This study aims to examine and describe the characteristics of potential injury situations during a men's professional international tournament quantified using the FIFA Football Language Medical Coding. A prospective study was conducted during the 64 matches of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™, during which five analysts recorded potential injury situations from video analysis. "Potential injuries" were recorded when players stayed down > 5 s and/or requested medical attention. Characteristics were further recorded for variables such as opponent's action and body location. In total, 720 potential injury situations were recorded of which 139 required medical assessment. The actions which resulted in most potential injuries were running while receiving a pass (74; 10%), while passing the ball (59; 8%), and while progressing with the ball (48; 7%). Duels and ball progression led to a potential injury in 3.0% and 2.1% of all similar actions in total. Both aerial duels and ball progression led to an potential injury that required medical assessment on 0.4% of occasions. Most potential injuries involved the head (149; 21%), foot (120; 17%), or lower leg (110; 15%) with most medical assessments of the head (35; 25%), lower leg (17; 12%), and knee (15; 11%) with a median duration of 47 seconds (IQR 28-61). This study provides a detailed overview of match circumstances that may have a higher injury risk. Although some variables within the coding system need improvement to increase reliability, its use will allow a more detailed comparison of differences between high-risk player actions leading to injury and those that do not, which can improve future prevention strategies.

Prognostic factors for long-term improvement in pain and disability among patients with persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND

Prognostic research in low back pain (LBP) is essential for understanding and managing the condition. This study aimed to, (1) describe the proportions with mild-moderate and severe pain and disability at baseline, 1-year and 4-year follow-up, and (2) investigate prognostic factors for improvement in pain and disability over 4 years in a cohort of secondary care LBP patients.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a cohort of patients with LBP aged 18-40 years recruited from a non-surgical outpatient spine clinic between March 2011 and October 2013 (n = 1037). Questionnaires were collected at baseline, 1-year, and 4-year follow-up. Disability was assessed using the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ 0-100) and pain intensity using the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS 0-10). 'Mild-moderate pain' was defined as NRS < 7 and 'severe pain' as NRS ≥ 7. Likewise, 'mild-moderate disability' was defined as RMDQ < 58.3, and 'severe disability' was RMDQ ≥ 58.3. In the prognostic analysis, improvement in pain and disability over 4 years was defined as meeting both criteria: decrease of ≥ 2 on the NRS and of ≥ 20.8 on the RMDQ. Sixteen candidate prognostic factors were assessed by multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among patients with information available at all three time points (n = 241), 54%/48% had persistent mild-moderate pain/disability, while only 7%/15% had persistent severe pain/disability. Of patients included in the multivariate prognostic analysis regarding improvement over 4 years (n = 498), 32% had improved in pain and disability after 4 years. Positive associations were found for pain intensity (OR 1.34 [95%CI: 1.17-1.54]), disability (OR 1.01 [1.00-1.02]), and regular employment or studying (OR 1.67 [1.06-2.64]), and negative associations for episode duration (OR 0.99 [0.99-1.00]) and risk of persistent pain (OR 0.58 [0.38-0.88]).

CONCLUSION

Patients with persistent LBP in secondary care had mostly mild-moderate pain and disability consistently at all three time points, with few having consistently severe symptoms over 4 years. Moreover, approximately half of the included patients improved in pain and disability. We found that pain intensity, disability, episode duration, regular employment or studying, and risk of persistent pain predicted a long-term improvement. However, the limited availability of complete follow-up data may affect generalisability.

Occupational exposures and sarcoidosis: a rapid review of the evidence

BACKGROUND

Sarcoidosis is a rare, multisystem, inflammatory condition associated with the formation of granulomas. Diagnosis can be challenging because of non-specific symptoms complicating epidemiological investigations of its aetiology. Despite research efforts, a review of the current state of the evidence is needed.

AIMS

To assess the evidence for an association between occupational exposures and the development of sarcoidosis. To determine if workers in any occupation are at a greater risk of developing sarcoidosis.

METHODS

This rapid review follows the methodology suggested by the World Health Organization. Two electronic databases were systematically searched until April 2022. The methodological quality of the studies was critically appraised, and a best-evidence approach was used to synthesize the results.

RESULTS

Titles and abstracts of 2916 articles were screened, with 67 full-text articles reviewed for eligibility. Among the 13 studies eligible for this review, none were of high quality (i.e. low risk of bias). Six studies exploring the association between sarcoidosis and a range of occupations and exposures, and one previous systematic review were of low quality reporting inconsistent findings. Six studies examined the risk of sarcoidosis associated with occupational silica exposure, two of which were of acceptable quality. Overall, the study methodologies and results were inadequate to support causal relationships.

CONCLUSIONS

There is limited evidence of acceptable methodological quality to assess the risk of sarcoidosis associated with occupational exposures. There is a growing body of research examining occupational exposure to silica and sarcoidosis. Additional high-quality confirmatory research is needed.

Evaluating the Shock Index, Revised Assessment of Bleeding and Transfusion (RABT), Assessment of Blood Consumption (ABC) and novel PTTrauma score to predict critical transfusion threshold (CAT) in penetrating thoracic trauma

The shock index (SI) has been associated with predicting transfusion needs in trauma patients. However, its utility in penetrating thoracic trauma (PTTrauma) for predicting the Critical Administration Threshold (CAT) has not been well-studied. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of SI in predicting CAT in PTTrauma patients and compare its performance with the Assessment of Blood Consumption (ABC) and Revised Assessment of Bleeding and Transfusion (RABT) scores. We conducted a prognostic type 2, single-center retrospective observational cohort study on patients with PTTrauma and an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 9. The primary exposure was SI at admission, and the primary outcome was CAT. Logistic regression and decision curve analysis were used to assess the predictive performance of SI and the PTTrauma score, a novel model incorporating clinical variables. Of the 620 participants, 53 (8.5%) had more than one CAT. An SI > 0.9 was associated with CAT (adjusted OR 4.89, 95% CI 1.64-14.60). The PTTrauma score outperformed SI, ABC, and RABT scores in predicting CAT (AUC 0.867, 95% CI 0.826-0.908). SI is a valuable predictor of CAT in PTTrauma patients. The novel PTTrauma score demonstrates superior performance compared to existing scores, highlighting the importance of developing targeted predictive models for specific injury patterns. These findings can guide clinical decision-making and resource allocation in the management of PTTrauma.

Systematic Review of Prognosis Models in Predicting Tooth Loss in Periodontitis

This study reviews and appraises the methodological and reporting quality of prediction models for tooth loss in periodontitis patients, including the use of regression and machine learning models. Studies involving prediction modeling for tooth loss in periodontitis patients were screened. A search was performed in MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, and CENTRAL up to 12 February 2022, with citation chasing. Studies exploring model development or external validation studies for models assessing tooth loss in periodontitis patients for clinical use at any time point, with all prediction horizons in English, were considered. Studies were excluded if models were not developed for use in periodontitis patients, were not developed or validated on any data set, predicted outcomes other than tooth loss, or were prognostic factor studies. The CHARMS checklist was used for data extraction, TRIPOD to assess reporting quality, and PROBAST to assess the risk of bias. In total, 4,661 records were screened, and 45 studies were included. Only 26 studies reported any kind of performance measure. The median C-statistic reported was 0.671 (range, 0.57-0.97). All studies were at a high risk of bias due to inappropriate handling of missing data (96%), inappropriate evaluation of model performance (92%), and lack of accounting for model overfitting in evaluating model performance (68%). Many models predicting tooth loss in periodontitis are available, but studies evaluating these models are at a high risk of bias. Model performance measures are likely to be overly optimistic and might not be replicated in clinical use. While this review is unable to recommend any model for clinical practice, it has collated the existing models and their model performance at external validation and their associated sample sizes, which would be helpful to identify promising models for future external validation studies.

Single-channel qEEG characteristics distinguish delirium from no delirium, but not postoperative from non-postoperative delirium

OBJECTIVE

This exploratory study examined quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) changes in delirium and the use of qEEG features to distinguish postoperative from non-postoperative delirium.

METHODS

This project was part of the DeltaStudy, a cross-sectional,multicenterstudy in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and non-ICU wards. Single-channel (Fp2-Pz) four-minutes resting-state EEG was analyzed in 456 patients. After calculating 98 qEEG features per epoch, random forest (RF) classification was used to analyze qEEG changes in delirium and to test whether postoperative and non-postoperative delirium could be distinguished.

RESULTS

An area under the receiver operatingcharacteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.71-0.80) was found when classifying delirium with a sensitivity of 0.77 and a specificity of 0.63 at the optimal operating point. The classification of postoperative versus non-postoperative delirium resulted in an AUC of 0.50 (95%CI 0.38-0.61).

CONCLUSIONS

RF classification was able to discriminate delirium from no delirium with reasonable accuracy, while also identifying new delirium qEEG markers like autocorrelation and theta peak frequency. RF classification could not distinguish postoperative from non-postoperative delirium.

SIGNIFICANCE

Single-channel EEG differentiates between delirium and no delirium with reasonable accuracy. We found no distinct EEG profile for postoperative delirium, which may suggest that delirium is one entity, whether it develops postoperatively or not.

Change in number of pain sites - which factors are important? A 12-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Pain in multiple body sites is common and often persistent. The purpose of this prospective study was to examine the change in the number of pain sites (NPS) over time and to evaluate to which extent clinical, demographic, lifestyle and health-related factors predict a change in NPS.

METHODS

This was a population-based longitudinal cohort study of adults (n = 2,357). Data on pain, demographic, lifestyle, and health-related variables were collected by questionnaires in 2008 and 2020 and register data from 2006 to 2017. Data was analysed with linear regression.

RESULTS

We found a mean decrease in NPS over the 12-year follow-up period (-0.36 (95% CI; -0.44; -0.27) and 56% of this sample reported no change or only one pain site increase/decrease over 12 years. While participants reporting pain for less than 3 months at baseline had almost no change in NPS (-0.04 (95% CI; -0.18; 0.10)), participants with pain for longer than 3 months decreased by -0.51 (95% CI; -0.62; -0.41). Age at baseline (20-49 years), pain intensity, and obesity (BMI ≥ 30) were associated with an increase in NPS over the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

NPS is relatively stable over time. We found a small mean decrease in NPS over 12 years varying between participants with pain for longer than 3 months and pain for less than 3 months respectively. The results also indicate that pain intensity, age, and obesity could be relevant factors to consider when predicting change in NPS.

Systematic review of prognostic factors associated with progression to late age-related macular degeneration: Pinnacle study report 2

There is a need to identify accurately prognostic factors that determine the progression of intermediate to late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Currently, clinicians cannot provide individualised prognoses of disease progression. Moreover, enriching clinical trials with rapid progressors may facilitate delivery of shorter intervention trials aimed at delaying or preventing progression to late AMD. Thus, we performed a systematic review to outline and assess the accuracy of reporting prognostic factors for the progression of intermediate to late AMD. A meta-analysis was originally planned. Synonyms of AMD and disease progression were used to search Medline and EMBASE for articles investigating AMD progression published between 1991 and 2021. Initial search results included 3229 articles. Predetermined eligibility criteria were employed to systematically screen papers by two reviewers working independently and in duplicate. Quality appraisal and data extraction were performed by a team of reviewers. Only 6 studies met the eligibility criteria. Based on these articles, exploratory prognostic factors for progression of intermediate to late AMD included phenotypic features (e.g. location and size of drusen), age, smoking status, ocular and systemic co-morbidities, race, and genotype. Overall, study heterogeneity precluded reporting by forest plots and meta-analysis. The most commonly reported prognostic factors were baseline drusen volume/size, which was associated with progression to neovascular AMD, and outer retinal thinning linked to progression to geographic atrophy. In conclusion, poor methodological quality of included studies warrants cautious interpretation of our findings. Rigorous studies are warranted to provide robust evidence in the future.

Multivariable Prediction Models for Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: A Systematic Review

Background

Traumatic spinal cord injuries (TSCI) greatly affect the lives of patients and their families. Prognostication may improve treatment strategies, health care resource allocation, and counseling. Multivariable clinical prediction models (CPMs) for prognosis are tools that can estimate an absolute risk or probability that an outcome will occur.

Objectives

We sought to systematically review the existing literature on CPMs for TSCI and critically examine the predictor selection methods used.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and IEEE for English peer-reviewed studies and relevant references that developed multivariable CPMs to prognosticate patient-centered outcomes in adults with TSCI. Using narrative synthesis, we summarized the characteristics of the included studies and their CPMs, focusing on the predictor selection process.

Results

We screened 663 titles and abstracts; of these, 21 full-text studies (2009-2020) consisting of 33 distinct CPMs were included. The data analysis domain was most commonly at a high risk of bias when assessed for methodological quality. Model presentation formats were inconsistently included with published CPMs; only two studies followed established guidelines for transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models. Authors frequently cited previous literature for their initial selection of predictors, and stepwise selection was the most frequent predictor selection method during modelling.

Conclusion

Prediction modelling studies for TSCI serve clinicians who counsel patients, researchers aiming to risk-stratify participants for clinical trials, and patients coping with their injury. Poor methodological rigor in data analysis, inconsistent transparent reporting, and a lack of model presentation formats are vital areas for improvement in TSCI CPM research.

Patient Characteristics Associated With Worsening of Neck Pain-Related Disability After Surgery for Degenerative Cervical Myelopathy: A Nationwide Study of 1508 Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Functional status, pain, and quality of life usually improve after surgery for degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM), but a subset of patients report worsening. The objective was to define cutoff values for worsening on the Neck Disability Index (NDI) and identify prognostic factors associated with worsening of pain-related disability 12 months after DCM surgery.

METHODS

In this prognostic study based on prospectively collected data from the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery, the NDI was the primary outcome. Receiver operating characteristics curve analyses were used to obtain cutoff values, using the global perceived effect scale as an external anchor. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using mixed logistic regression to evaluate the relationship between potential prognostic factors and the NDI.

RESULTS

Among the 1508 patients undergoing surgery for myelopathy, 1248 (82.7%) were followed for either 3 or 12 months. Of these, 317 (25.4%) were classified to belong to the worsening group according to the mean NDI percentage change cutoff of 3.3. Multivariable analyses showed that smoking (odds ratio [OR] 3.4: 95% CI 1.2-9.5: P < .001), low educational level (OR 2.5: 95% CI 1.0-6.5: P < .001), and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade >II (OR 2.2: 95% CI 0.7-5.6: P = .004) were associated with worsening. Patients with more severe neck pain (OR 0.8: 95% CI 0.7-1.0: P = .003) and arm pain (OR 0.8: 95% CI 0.7-1.0; P = .007) at baseline were less likely to report worsening.

CONCLUSION

We defined a cutoff value of 3.3 for worsening after DCM surgery using the mean NDI percentage change. The independent prognostic factors associated with worsening of pain-related disability were smoking, low educational level, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade >II. Patients with more severe neck and arm pain at baseline were less likely to report worsening at 12 months.

Proteomics for heart failure risk stratification: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with persistently high mortality. High-throughput proteomic technologies offer new opportunities to improve HF risk stratification, but their contribution remains to be clearly defined. We aimed to systematically review prognostic studies using high-throughput proteomics to identify protein signatures associated with HF mortality.

METHODS

We searched four databases and two clinical trial registries for articles published from 2012 to 2023. HF proteomics studies measuring high numbers of proteins using aptamer or antibody-based affinity platforms on human plasma or serum with outcomes of all-cause or cardiovascular death were included. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A third reviewer resolved conflicts. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure tool.

RESULTS

Out of 5131 unique articles identified, nine articles were included in the review. The nine studies were observational; three used the aptamer platform, and six used the antibody platform. We found considerable heterogeneity across studies in measurement panels, HF definitions, ejection fraction categorization, follow-up duration, and outcome definitions, and a lack of risk estimates for most protein associations. Hence, we proceeded with a systematic review rather than a meta-analysis. In two comparable aptamer studies in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, 21 proteins were identified in common for the association with all-cause death. Among these, one protein, WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2 was also reported in an antibody study on HFrEF and for the association with CV death. We proposed standardized reporting criteria to facilitate the interpretation of future studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review of nine studies evaluating the association of proteomics with mortality in HF, we identified a limited number of proteins common across several studies. Heterogeneity across studies compromised drawing broad inferences, underscoring the importance of standardized approaches to reporting.

Factors associated with pain and functional impairment five years after total knee arthroplasty: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have evaluated the associations between preoperative factors and pain and physical function outcomes after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) from a mid-term perspective. Identification of such factors is important for optimizing outcomes following surgery. Thus, we examined the associations between selected preoperative factors and moderate to severe pain and pain-related functional impairment as measured using the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI), five years after TKA in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

METHODS

In this prospective observational study, all patients scheduled for primary unilateral TKA for osteoarthritis were consecutively recruited. Preoperative factors identified from previous meta-analyses were included to assess their associations with pain severity and pain-related functional impairment five years after TKA. Pain severity was the primary outcome, while pain-related functional impairment was the secondary outcome. The BPI was used to evaluate outcomes five years post-TKA. Statistically significant factors from univariate regressions were entered into a multiple logistic regression model to identify those with the strongest associations with pain severity or pain-related functional impairment five years after TKA.

RESULTS

A total of 136 patients were included, with a mean age of 67.7 years (SD 9.2) and a majority being female (68%). More severe preoperative pain (OR = 1.34, 95% CI [1.03 to 1.74]), more painful sites (OR = 1.28., 95% CI [1.01 to 1.63]), and more severe anxiety symptoms (OR = 1.14., 95% CI [1.01 to 1.28]) were associated with increased likelihood of moderate to severe pain five years after TKA surgery, while more severe osteoarthritis (OR = 0.13, 95% CI [0.03 to 0.61]) was associated with reduced likelihood of moderate to severe pain five years after TKA. More severe anxiety symptoms (OR = 1.25, 95% CI [1.08 to 1.46]) were also associated with increased likelihood of moderate to severe pain-related functional impairment five years after surgery, while male sex (OR = 0.23, 95% CI [0.05 to 0.98]) was associated with reduced likelihood of pain-related functional impairment five years after surgery.

CONCLUSION

The identified preoperative factors should be included in larger prognostic studies evaluating the associations between preoperative factors and mid-term pain severity and physical function outcomes after TKA surgery.

Predicting outcomes across treatment settings in patients with shoulder pain referred to physiotherapy: a secondary analysis of two comparable prospective cohort studies

Objective

Previous studies have examined factors that may contribute to predicting outcomes for patients with shoulder pain. However, there is still a lack of consensus on which factors predict the results and whether there are differences based on the treatment setting. Thus, this study aimed to analyse and compare how baseline variables are associated with future outcomes in patients with shoulder pain in primary and secondary care settings.

Methods

This study conducted a secondary analysis of two observational prospective cohort studies involving patients with shoulder pain in primary care (n=150) and secondary care (n=183). Multiple regression analyses were employed, with one interaction term at a time, to examine potential differences in association with baseline characteristics and future outcomes between the two settings.

Results

Changes in pain and function were statistically significant at 6 months for patients in primary care and secondary care. However, associations for most baseline variables and outcomes did not differ significantly across these two treatment settings. The only statistically significant interactions observed were for the associations between baseline level of pain, function and fear avoidance beliefs and change in pain scores at 6 months, with lower change scores observed among patients in the secondary care.

Conclusion

This study revealed that the association with outcomes did not differ across settings for most baseline characteristics. These findings suggest that it could be feasible to generalise the prognostic value of most baseline variables for patients with shoulder, irrespective of the treatment setting.

Physical measures of physical functioning as prognostic factors to predict outcomes in low back pain: Protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Low back pain (LBP) is a highly prevalent condition that substantially impairs individuals' physical functioning. This highlights the need for effective management strategies to improve patient outcomes. It is, therefore, crucial to have knowledge of physical functioning prognostic factors that can predict outcomes to facilitate the development of targeted treatment plans aiming to achieve better patient outcomes. There is no synthesis of evidence for physical functioning measures as prognostic factors in the LBP population. The objective of this systematic review is to synthesize evidence for physical measures of physical functioning as prognostic factors to predict outcomes in LBP.

METHODS

The protocol is registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews and reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P). Prospective longitudinal observational studies investigating potential physical prognostic factors in LBP and/or low back-related leg pain population will be included, with no restriction on outcome. Searches will be performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL databases, grey literature search using Open Grey System and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, hand-searching journals, and reference lists of included studies. Two independent reviewers will evaluate the eligibility of studies, extract data, assess risk of bias and quality of evidence. Risk of bias will be assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool. Adequacy of clinical, methodological, and statistical homogeneity among included studies will decide quantitative (meta-analysis) or qualitative analysis (narrative synthesis) focused on prognostic factors and strength of association with outcomes. Quality of cumulative evidence will be evaluated using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE).

DISCUSSION

Information about prognostic factors can be used to predict outcomes in LBP. Accurate outcome prediction is essential for identifying high-risk patients that allows targeted allocation of healthcare resources, ultimately reducing the healthcare burden.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, CRD42023406796.

Competing-risks analysis for evaluating the prognosis of patients with microinvasive cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma based on the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Utilizing the traditional Cox regression model to identify the factors affecting the risk of mortality due to microinvasive cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (micSCC) may produce skewed results. Since cause-specific mortality can guide clinical decision-making, this study employed the Fine-Gray model based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify significant predictive variables for the risk of micSCC-related mortality.

METHODS

This study used the information of patients with micSCC who were listed in the SEER database during 2000-2015. Cox regression and Fine-Gray models were utilized for the multivariable analysis, and Gray's test and the cumulative incidence function were used for the univariable analyses.

RESULTS

There were 100 patients who died from other reasons and 38 who died from micSCC among the 1259 qualified patients with micSCC. Most were female, white, married, had localized metastasis, etc. According to the univariable Gray's test (P < 0.05), the cumulative incidence rate for events of interest was strongly associated with age, sex, marital status, American Joint Committee on Cancer staging, radiation status, summary stage, chemotherapy status, surgery status, and tumor size. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and multivariable competing-risks analysis indicated that age, tumor size, and income were independent risk variables for the prognosis of patients with micSCC. In both age and tumor size variables, the competing-risks model showed a slight decrease in the hazard ratio and a slight narrowing of the 95% confidence interval compared with the Cox regression model. However, this pattern is not evident in the income variable.

CONCLUSIONS

This study established a Fine-Gray model for identifying the independent risk factors that influence the risk of mortality among patients with micSCC. This study uncovers that, in the context of competing risks, age, tumor size, and income serve as independent risk factors influencing the risk of mortality due to micSCC among patients. Our findings have the potential to provide more accurate risk assessments for patient outcomes and contribute to the development of individualized treatment plans.

Challenges in the management of the kidney allograft: from decline to failure: conclusions from a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference

In March 2022, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) held a virtual Controversies Conference to address the important but rarely examined phase during which the kidney transplant is failing or has failed. In addition to discussing the definition of a failing allograft, 4 broad areas were considered in the context of a declining functioning graft: prognosis and kidney failure trajectory; immunosuppression strategies; management of medical and psychological complications, and patient factors; and choice of kidney replacement therapy or supportive care following graft loss. Identifying and paying special attention to individuals with failing allografts was felt to be important in order to prepare patients psychologically, manage immunosuppression, address complications, prepare for dialysis and/or retransplantation, and transition to supportive care. Accurate prognostication tools, although not yet widely available, were embraced as necessary to define allograft survival trajectories and the likelihood of allograft failure. The decision of whether to withdraw or continue immunosuppression after allograft failure was deemed to be based most appropriately on risk-benefit analysis and likelihood of retransplantation within a few months. Psychological preparation and support was identified as a critical factor in patient adjustment to graft failure, as was early communication. Several models of care were noted that enabled a medically supportive transition back to dialysis or retransplantation. Emphasis was placed on the importance of dialysis-access readiness before initiation of dialysis, in order to avoid use of central venous catheters. The centrality of the patient to all management decisions and discussions was deemed to be paramount. Patient "activation," which can be defined as engaged agency, was seen as the most effective way to achieve success. Unresolved controversies, gaps in knowledge, and areas for research were also stressed in the conference deliberations.

Using peripheral immune-inflammatory blood markers in tumors treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: An INVIDIa-2 study sub-analysis

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) have been reported as prognosticators in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), renal cell carcinoma (RCC), and melanoma. This analysis of the INVIDIa-2 study on influenza vaccination in patients with cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) assessed NLR and SII on overall survival (OS) by literature-reported (LR), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC)-derived (ROC) cutoffs or as continuous variable (CV). NLR and SII with ROC cutoffs of <3.4 (p < 0.001) and <831 (p < 0.001) were independent factors for OS in multivariate analysis. SII with LR, ROC, or CV significantly predicted OS in NSCLC (p = 0.002, p = 0.003, p = 0.003), RCC (p = 0.034, p = 0.014, p = 0.014), and melanoma (p = 0.038, p = 0.022, p = 0.019). NLR with LR and ROC cutoffs predicted OS in first line (p < 0.001 for both) and second line or beyond (p = 0.006 for both); likewise SII (p < 0.001; p = 0.002 and p < 0.001). NLR and SII are prognosticators in NSCLC, RCC, and melanoma treated with ICIs.

Association Between Physical Tests and Patients-Reported Outcomes in Athletes Performing Exercise Therapy for Patellar Tendinopathy: A Secondary Analysis of the JUMPER Study

BACKGROUND

Physical tests are commonly used in patellar tendinopathy to aid the clinical diagnosis, assess the prognosis, and monitor treatment. However, it is still unknown whether these physical measures are associated with patient-reported outcomes after exercise therapy.

PURPOSE

To identify the prognostic value of baseline physical test results and to determine the association between physical response after exercise therapy and clinical improvement over 24 weeks.

STUDY DESIGN

Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

This study recruited 76 consecutive athletes with patellar tendinopathy who were randomized to 2 different programs of exercise therapy for 24 weeks. Athletes underwent a range of physical tests before and during exercise therapy (12 and 24 weeks), including isometric muscle strength (quadriceps and hip abductors), muscle flexibility (quadriceps, hamstrings, soleus, and gastrocnemius), vertical jump height, and visual analog scale (VAS) scores by palpation, after 3 jump trials, and after single-leg squat (VAS-SLS). The Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Patella (VISA-P) questionnaire was used as the primary patient-reported outcome. Linear mixed-effect models were used to assess the prognostic value of baseline physical tests. The change in VISA-P score was further dichotomized into clinical responsiveness (≥14 points) and nonresponsiveness (<14 points). Multiple linear and logistic regression models were performed to evaluate associations between physical response and clinical improvement.

RESULTS

Of the 76 included patients, 67 (88%) had complete follow-ups. The estimated mean VISA-P score increased by 23 points (95% CI, 19-28 points) after 24 weeks. No association was found between any baseline physical test results and a 24-week change in VISA-P score (all Pinteraction > .2, using the likelihood ratio test). Improvement in VAS-SLS after exercise therapy was not associated with VISA-P improvement after adjustment (β = -1.76; P = .01; Bonferroni-corrected P = .10; R2 = 36.3%). No associations were found between changes in other physical test results and clinical improvement (all P > .05).

CONCLUSION

In patients with patellar tendinopathy, physical test results including strength and flexibility in the lower limb, jump performance, and pain levels during pain-provoking tests were not identified as prognostic factors for patient-reported outcomes after exercise therapy. Similarly, changes in physical test results were not associated with changes in patient-reported outcomes after adjustments. These results do not support using physical test results to estimate prognosis or monitor treatment response.

REGISTRATION

NCT02938143 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier).

Association Between First Attempt Buffalo Concussion Treadmill Test and Days to Recovery in 855 Children With Sport-Related Concussion: A Historical Cohort Study and Prognostic Factors Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about the prognostic value of the Buffalo Concussion Treadmill Test (BCTT) after the acute phase of sport-related concussion (SRC). We examined the added prognostic value of the BCTT performed 10 to 21 days after SRC in children, in addition to participant, injury, and clinical process characteristics on days to recovery.

DESIGN

Historical clinical cohort study.

SETTING

Network of approximately 150 Canadian multidisciplinary primary-care clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

855 children (mean age 14 years, range 6-17 years, 44% female) who presented between January 2016, and April 2019 with SRC.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS

Participant, injury, and clinical process characteristics, with focus on BCTT exercise intolerance assessed 10 to 21 days after injury.

OUTCOME

Days to clinical recovery.

RESULTS

Children who were exercise intolerant experienced an increase of 13 days to recovery (95% CI, 9-18 days). Each additional day between SRC and first BCTT was associated with a recovery delay of 1 day (95% CI, 1-2 days), and prior history of concussion was associated with a recovery delay of 3 days (95% CI, 1-5 days). Participant, injury, and clinical process characteristics, and the first attempt BCTT result explained 11% of the variation in recovery time, with 4% accounted for by the BCTT.

CONCLUSION

Exercise-intolerance assessed 10 to 21 days after SRC was associated with delayed recovery. However, this was not a strong prognostic factor for days to recovery.

Development and validation of risk prediction model for diabetic neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients at selected referral hospitals, in Amhara regional state Northwest Ethiopia, 2005-2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetic neuropathy is the most common complication in both Type-1 and Type-2 DM patients with more than one half of all patients developing nerve dysfunction in their lifetime. Although, risk prediction model was developed for diabetic neuropathy in developed countries, It is not applicable in clinical practice, due to poor data, methodological problems, inappropriately analyzed and reported. To date, no risk prediction model developed for diabetic neuropathy among DM in Ethiopia, Therefore, this study aimed prediction the risk of diabetic neuropathy among DM patients, used for guiding in clinical decision making for clinicians.

OBJECTIVE

Development and validation of risk prediction model for diabetic neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients at selected referral hospitals, in Amhara regional state Northwest Ethiopia, 2005-2021.

METHODS

A retrospective follow up study was conducted with a total of 808 DM patients were enrolled from January 1,2005 to December 30,2021 at two selected referral hospitals in Amhara regional state. Multi-stage sampling techniques were used and the data was collected by checklist from medical records by Kobo collect and exported to STATA version-17 for analysis. Lasso method were used to select predictors and entered to multivariable logistic regression with P-value<0.05 was used for nomogram development. Model performance was assessed by AUC and calibration plot. Internal validation was done through bootstrapping method and decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate net benefit of model.

RESULTS

The incidence proportion of diabetic neuropathy among DM patients was 21.29% (95% CI; 18.59, 24.25). In multivariable logistic regression glycemic control, other comorbidities, physical activity, hypertension, alcohol drinking, type of treatment, white blood cells and red blood cells count were statistically significant. Nomogram was developed, has discriminating power AUC; 73.2% (95% CI; 69.0%, 77.3%) and calibration test (P-value = 0.45). It was internally validated by bootstrapping method with discrimination performance 71.7 (95% CI; 67.2%, 75.9%). It had less optimism coefficient (0.015). To make nomogram accessible, mobile based tool were developed. In machine learning, classification and regression tree has discriminating performance of 70.2% (95% CI; 65.8%, 74.6%). The model had high net benefit at different threshold probabilities in both nomogram and classification and regression tree.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram and decision tree, has good level of accuracy and well calibration, easily individualized prediction of diabetic neuropathy. Both models had added net benefit in clinical practice and to be clinically applicable mobile based tool were developed.

The impact of pregnancy on women with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is the most common spinal deformity encountered in adolescents and larger curves are more prevalent in girls. For females with scoliosis, women's health issues are of particular concern, especially pregnancy. The aim of this review was to summarise the best available evidence to determine the influence of pregnancy on scoliosis-related outcomes in women with scoliosis and whether scoliosis affects maternal-health outcomes, differentiating between patients who have been managed conservatively and/or surgically.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A search was conducted using CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane Database, MEDLINE, and EMBASE from inception to May 2023 to identify relevant articles in any language. The scoping review followed the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Studies were eligible if they included pregnant women (primiparous or multiparous) with a diagnosis of scoliosis of unknown aetiology. The results were summarized by outcomes, including pregnancy and scoliosis-related outcomes and type of management.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Our comprehensive search strategy identified 6872 articles, of which 50 articles were eligible for this review. Back pain appears to be more prevalent in this population during pregnancy and associated with the major curve and the decrease of lumbar lordosis. There have been reports of failed attempted spinal anaesthesia among patients with instrumented scoliosis correction and minor complications related to epidural anaesthesia at a higher rate compared to non-instrumented patients and healthy controls, however successful spinal analgesia can be achieved in patients with instrumented scoliosis correction. Overall, the caesarean section rate was similar in scoliosis patients compared to controls without scoliosis and to national averages. Curve progression occurs in some but not all patients during pregnancy, and this phenomenon occurs irrespective of the treatment received.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher-quality prospective longitudinal research is needed to understand the relationship between pregnancy and adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Further, the patient's perspective, concerns and fears surrounding pregnancy with scoliosis are yet to be explored. Exploring the impact of pregnancy on women with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis would have clinically relevant outcomes and could help provide pertinent answers to patients and healthcare workers and help guide future research.

Prognostic factors specific to work-related musculoskeletal disorders: An overview of recent systematic reviews

PURPOSE

Work-related injuries affect a considerable number of people each year and represent a significant burden for society. To reduce this burden, optimizing rehabilitation care by integrating prognostic factors (PF) into the clinical decision-making process is a promising way to improve clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify PF specific to work-related musculoskeletal disorders.

METHODS

We performed an overview of systematic reviews reporting on PF that had the following outcomes of interest: Return to work, pain, disability, functional status, or poor outcomes. Each extracted PF was categorized according to its level of evidence (grade A or B) and whether it was modifiable or not. The risk of bias of each study was assessed with the ROBIS tool.

RESULTS

We retrieved 757 citations from 3 databases. After removing 307 duplicates, 450 records were screened, and 20 studies were retained. We extracted a total of 20 PF with a Grade A recommendation, where 7 were deemed modifiable, 11 non-modifiable and 2 were index test. For example, return to work expectations, previous sick leave, delay in referral and pain intensity were found to be predictors of return-to-work outcomes. We also identified 17 PF with a Grade B recommendation, where 11 were deemed modifiable. For example, poor general health, negative recovery expectations, coping and fear-avoidance beliefs, pain severity, and particularly physical work were found to predict return to work outcomes.

CONCLUSION

We found numerous modifiable PFs that can help clinicians personalize their treatment plan beyond diagnostic-related information for work-related musculoskeletal disorders.

Prediction of rehabilitation induced motor recovery after stroke using a multi-dimensional and multi-modal approach

Background

Stroke is a debilitating disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Despite the survival rate has significantly increased over the years, many stroke survivors are left with severe impairments impacting their quality of life. Rehabilitation programs have proved to be successful in improving the recovery process. However, a reliable model of sensorimotor recovery and a clear identification of predictive markers of rehabilitation-induced recovery are still needed. This article introduces the cross-modality protocols designed to investigate the rehabilitation treatment's effect in a group of stroke survivors.

Methods/design

A total of 75 stroke patients, admitted at the IRCCS San Camillo rehabilitation Hospital in Venice (Italy), will be included in this study. Here, we describe the rehabilitation programs, clinical, neuropsychological, and physiological/imaging [including electroencephalography (EEG), transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques] protocols set up for this study. Blood collection for the characterization of predictive biological biomarkers will also be taken. Measures derived from data acquired will be used as candidate predictors of motor recovery.

Discussion/summary

The integration of cutting-edge physiological and imaging techniques, with clinical and cognitive assessment, dose of rehabilitation and biological variables will provide a unique opportunity to define a predictive model of recovery in stroke patients. Taken together, the data acquired in this project will help to define a model of rehabilitation induced sensorimotor recovery, with the final aim of developing personalized treatments promoting the greatest chance of recovery of the compromised functions.

Examining later-in-life health risks associated with sport-related concussion and repetitive head impacts: a systematic review of case-control and cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

Concern exists about possible problems with later-in-life brain health, such as cognitive impairment, mental health problems and neurological diseases, in former athletes. We examined the future risk for adverse health effects associated with sport-related concussion, or exposure to repetitive head impacts, in former athletes.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Search of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, CINAHL Plus and SPORTDiscus in October 2019 and updated in March 2022.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies measuring future risk (cohort studies) or approximating that risk (case-control studies).

RESULTS

Ten studies of former amateur athletes and 18 studies of former professional athletes were included. No postmortem neuropathology studies or neuroimaging studies met criteria for inclusion. Depression was examined in five studies in former amateur athletes, none identifying an increased risk. Nine studies examined suicidality or suicide as a manner of death, and none found an association with increased risk. Some studies comparing professional athletes with the general population reported associations between sports participation and dementia or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) as a cause of death. Most did not control for potential confounding factors (eg, genetic, demographic, health-related or environmental), were ecological in design and had high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Evidence does not support an increased risk of mental health or neurological diseases in former amateur athletes with exposure to repetitive head impacts. Some studies in former professional athletes suggest an increased risk of neurological disorders such as ALS and dementia; these findings need to be confirmed in higher quality studies with better control of confounding factors.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022159486.

Six Externally Validated Prognostic Models Have Potential Clinical Value to Predict Patient Health Outcomes in the Rehabilitation of Musculoskeletal Conditions: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this systematic review was to identify and appraise externally validated prognostic models to predict a patient's health outcomes relevant to physical rehabilitation of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed 8 databases and reported our findings according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis 2020. An information specialist designed a search strategy to identify externally validated prognostic models for MSK conditions. Paired reviewers independently screened the title, abstract, and full text and conducted data extraction. We extracted characteristics of included studies (eg, country and study design), prognostic models (eg, performance measures and type of model) and predicted clinical outcomes (eg, pain and disability). We assessed the risk of bias and concerns of applicability using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. We proposed and used a 5-step method to determine which prognostic models were clinically valuable.

RESULTS

We found 4896 citations, read 300 full-text articles, and included 46 papers (37 distinct models). Prognostic models were externally validated for the spine, upper limb, lower limb conditions, and MSK trauma, injuries, and pain. All studies presented a high risk of bias. Half of the models showed low concerns for applicability. Reporting of calibration and discrimination performance measures was often lacking. We found 6 externally validated models with adequate measures, which could be deemed clinically valuable [ie, (1) STart Back Screening Tool, (2) Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK model, (3) Da Silva model, (4) PICKUP model, (5) Schellingerhout rule, and (6) Keene model]. Despite having a high risk of bias, which is mostly explained by the very conservative properties of the PROBAST tool, the 6 models remain clinically relevant.

CONCLUSION

We found 6 externally validated prognostic models developed to predict patients' health outcomes that were clinically relevant to the physical rehabilitation of MSK conditions.

IMPACT

Our results provide clinicians with externally validated prognostic models to help them better predict patients' clinical outcomes and facilitate personalized treatment plans. Incorporating clinically valuable prognostic models could inherently improve the value of care provided by physical therapists.

Characteristics associated with comorbid lumbar spinal stenosis symptoms in people with knee or hip osteoarthritis: an analysis of 9,136 good life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D®) participants

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have found that lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) often co-occurs with knee or hip OA and can impact treatment response. However, it is unclear what participant characteristics may be helpful in identifying individuals with these co-occurring conditions. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore characteristics associated with comorbid symptoms of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) in people with knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA) enrolled in a primary care education and exercise program.

METHODS

Sociodemographic, clinical characteristics, health status measures, and a self-report questionnaire on the presence of LSS symptoms was collected at baseline from the Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark primary care program for knee and hip OA. Cross-sectional associations between characteristics and the presence of comorbid LSS symptoms were assessed separately in participants with primary complaint of knee and hip OA, using domain-specific logistic models and a logistic model including all characteristics.

RESULTS

A total of 6,541 participants with a primary complaint of knee OA and 2,595 participants with a primary complaint of hip OA were included, of which 40% and 50% reported comorbid LSS symptoms, respectively. LSS symptoms were associated with similar characteristics in knee and hip OA. Sick leave was the only sociodemographic variable consistently associated with LSS symptoms. For clinical characteristics, back pain, longer symptom duration and bilateral or comorbid knee or hip symptoms were also consistently associated. Health status measures were not consistently related to LSS symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Comorbid LSS symptoms in people with knee or hip OA undergoing a primary care treatment program of group-based education and exercise were common and associated with a similar set of characteristics. These characteristics may help to identify people with co-occurring LSS and knee or hip OA, which can be used to help guide clinical decision-making.

Predictors of return to work for people on sick leave with depression, anxiety and stress: secondary analysis from a randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE

Knowledge about predictors of return to work (RTW) in people on sick leave with common mental disorders (CMDs) may inform the development of effective vocational rehabilitation interventions for this target group. In this study, we investigated predictors of RTW at 6 and 12 months in people on sick leave with depression, anxiety disorders or stress-related disorders.

METHODS

We have performed a secondary analysis, utilizing data from two RCTs that evaluated the efficacy of an integrated health care and vocational rehabilitation intervention. Data were obtained from mental health assessments, questionnaires and registers. Using Cox regression analysis, the relationship between baseline variables and RTW was analysed at 6 and 12 months after randomization within the group of CMD as a whole and within the subgroups of depression, anxiety and stress-related disorders.

RESULTS

Symptom burden and employment status at baseline predicted RTW in the CMD group (n = 1245) and in the three diagnostic subgroups at both time points. RTW self-efficacy predicted RTW in the depression group but not in the anxiety or stress subgroups.

CONCLUSION

Many predictors of RTW were similar over time and, to some extent, across the CMD subgroups. Findings highlight the need not only to take health-related and psychological factors into account when developing vocational rehabilitation interventions but also to consider workplace strategies and options for support.

Guided Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia: Prognostic and Treatment-Predictive Factors

Understanding which factors predict the outcome of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (iCBT-I) may help to tailor this intervention to the patient's needs. We have conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized, controlled trial comparing a multicomponent iCBT-I (MCT) and an online sleep restriction therapy (SRT) for 83 chronic insomnia patients. The difference in the Insomnia Severity Index from pre- to post-treatment and from pre-treatment to follow-up at 6 months after treatment was the dependent variable. Prognostic and treatment-predictive factors assessed at baseline were analyzed with multiple linear regression. The shorter duration of insomnia, female gender, high health-related quality of life, and the higher total number of clicks had prognostic value for a better outcome. Other factors were found to be prognostic for outcome at the follow-up assessment: treatment with benzodiazepines, sleep quality, and personal significance of sleep problems. A high level of dysfunctional beliefs and attitudes about sleep (DBAS) was a moderator for better effects in the MCT at post-treatment assessment. Various prognostic factors (e.g., duration of insomnia, gender, or quality of life) may influence the success of treatment. The DBAS scale may be recommended to select patients for MCT rather than SRT.

Clinical course of pain intensity in individuals with cerebral palsy: A prognostic systematic review

AIM

To describe the clinical course of pain intensity in individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) resulting from usual care or specific interventions.

METHOD

We conducted an exploratory prognostic systematic review searching electronic databases from inception to 31st December 2021. Evidence from low and moderate risk-of-bias studies was synthesized.

RESULTS

We retrieved 2275 citations; 18 studies met the inclusion criteria and 10 were synthesized. The course of pain intensity in children with CP receiving usual care was stable over 15 weeks (χ² _[2]  = 1.8, p = 0.5). Children who received continuous intrathecal baclofen (CITB) reported significant pain intensity reduction (visual analogue scale [VAS] = -4.2 out of 10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -6.3 to -2.1]) 6 months postinsertion but similar children receiving usual care had no significant change over 6 months (VAS = 1.3 out of 10, 95% CI = -1.3 to 3.6). Children receiving botulinum neurotoxin A (BoNT-A) injections had significant decreases in pain after 1 month (numeric rating scale = -6.5, 95% CI = -8.0 to -5.0). Adults with chronic pain receiving usual care reported stable pain intensity over time; pain intensity improved in ambulatory adults exercising and those treated surgically for cervical myelopathy.

INTERPRETATION

The course of pain intensity in individuals with CP is unclear. Evidence suggests that children and adults receiving usual care had stable pain intensity over the short or long term. Interventions (CITB and BoNT-A in children and exercise and surgical treatment for cervical myelopathy in adults) had pain intensity reduction. Larger study samples are needed to confirm these results.

WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS

Pain intensity was stable in children with cerebral palsy (CP) receiving usual care. Adults with CP and chronic pain receiving usual care had stable, persistent pain intensity. Children receiving continuous intrathecal baclofen via pump and botulinum neurotoxin A reported significantly lower pain intensities. Adults with chronic pain and dyskinetic CP and cervical myelopathy reported significantly lower pain intensity with exercise or cervical decompression. Limited high-quality evidence exists describing non-procedural pain changes in individuals with CP.

Meeting community ambulation criteria and confidence with walking on discharge from inpatient rehabilitation were positively associated with performance of outdoor community activities 8 weeks after discharge

PURPOSE

To assess whether meeting criteria for community ambulation and ambulatory self-confidence on discharge from inpatient rehabilitation are associated with participation in community activities.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal observational study design. Participants were assessed within 48-hours of discharge on ability to complete tasks reflective of community ambulation (walking 315 m, ascending/descending three stairs, a ramp, and a street curb and walking at 0.44 m/s) and ambulatory self-confidence. At 8 weeks post-discharge frequency of participation in domestic, leisure/work and outdoor activities was measured using the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI). Multivariable regression analysis determined factors associated with total and outdoor FAI score.

RESULTS

Seventy-four of 79 participants were followed up at 8 weeks post-discharge. Meeting all ambulation criteria was positively associated with FAI outdoor score (β = 1.85, 95%CI 0.01-3.69, p = 0.049). Ambulatory self-confidence was positively associated with FAI outdoor score (β = 0.03, 95%CI 0-0.05, p = 0.032) and FAI total score (β = 0.05, 95%CI 0-0.1, p = 0.040). Age (β= -0.22, 95%CI -0.36 to -0.08, p = 0.003) and living alone (β = 3.36, 95%CI 0.10-6.61, p = 0.044) were associated with FAI total score.

CONCLUSIONS

Capacity to meet ambulation criteria and ambulatory self-confidence are modifiable factors that could be targeted during rehabilitation to improve participation in community activities.Implications for rehabilitationMeeting community ambulation criteria and confidence with walking on discharge from inpatient rehabilitation are positively associated with performance of outdoor community activities 8 weeks after discharge.Capacity to meet community ambulation criteria and ambulatory confidence may be useful measures for rehabilitation teams to consider when discharging patients home.Meeting ambulation criteria and ambulatory confidence are modifiable factors that could be addressed through targeted therapy to improve community integration following hospitalisation.

Prognostic value of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in adults with non-small cell Lung Cancer: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

There is growing interest in the collection and use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to support clinical decision making in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, an overview of research into the prognostic value of PROMs is currently lacking.

AIM

To explore to what extent, how, and how robustly the value of PROMs for prognostic prediction has been investigated in adults diagnosed with NSCLC.

METHODS

We systematically searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL Plus and Scopus for English-language articles published from 2011 to 2021 that report prognostic factor study, prognostic model development or validation study. Example data charting forms from the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group guided our data charting on study characteristics, PROMs as predictors, predicted outcomes, and statistical methods. Two reviewers independently charted the data and critically appraised studies using the QUality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool for prognostic factor studies, and the risk of bias assessment section of the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) for prognostic model studies.

RESULTS

Our search yielded 2,769 unique titles of which we included 31 studies, reporting the results of 33 unique analyses and models. Out of the 17 PROMs used for prediction, the EORTC QLQ-C30 was most frequently used (16/33); 12/33 analyses used PROM subdomain scores instead of the overall scores. PROMs data was mostly collected at baseline (24/33) and predominantly used to predict survival (32/33) but seldom other clinical outcomes (1/33). Almost all prognostic factor studies (26/27) had moderate to high risk of bias and all four prognostic model development studies had high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

There is an emerging body of research into the value of PROMs as a prognostic factor for survival in people with NSCLC but the methodological quality of this research is poor with significant bias. This warrants more robust studies into the prognostic value of PROMs, in particular for predicting outcomes other than survival. This will enable further development of PROM-based prediction models to support clinical decision making in NSCLC.

On the definition of dermatological disease. Part 2: approaches for defining dermatological diseases

In Part 1 of this two-part review, conceptual frameworks for defining skin diseases were articulated. In this review, the main approaches that can be used to develop diagnostic criteria for skin disease are summarized, using atopic dermatitis (AD) as an example. Different frameworks for defining skin disease for research purposes are articulated, including statistical, prognostic, operational, clinical and epidemiological approaches. All share the common aim of attempting to develop criteria that enable meaningful comparisons between groups of people. The desirable attributes of a good definition are described: diagnostic criteria should measure what they are meant to measure; the results should be the same for different assessors; the criteria should be coherent with what is known about that disease; they should reflect some degree of morbidity and not pick up subclinical disease; they should be easy to administer; and they should be applicable to a range of people of different ages, sexes/genders and ethnicities. Consensus-based criteria are contrasted with epidemiological derivation methods that assess the performance of diagnostic criteria in relation to a reference standard. The sensitivity and specificity of a disease definition is explained, along with how the trade-off between these two properties can vary, depending on the purpose of the study and the study setting. The review closes with some reflections on when it is appropriate to consider splitting a disease into more than one category and how diagnostic criteria can be interpreted in the clinical setting.

Development of a 5-year risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes in individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

Pre-diabetes increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, but data are sparse on predictors in a population-based clinical setting. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for 5-year risks of progressing to type 2 diabetes among individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used data from the Danish National Health Survey (DNHS; n=486 495), linked to healthcare registries and nationwide laboratory data in 2012-2018. We included individuals with a first HbA1c value of 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0%-6.4%), without prior indications of diabetes. To estimate individual 5-year cumulative incidences of type 2 diabetes (HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%)), Fine-Gray survival models were fitted in random 80% development samples and validated in 20% validation samples. Potential predictors were HbA1c, demographics, prescriptions, comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and self-rated lifestyle.

RESULTS

Among 335 297 (68.9%) participants in DNHS with HbA1c measurements, 26 007 had pre-diabetes and were included in the study. Median HbA1c was 43.0 mmol/mol (IQR 42.0-44.0 mmol/mol, 6.1% (IQR 6.0%-6.2%)), median age was 69.6 years (IQR 61.0-77.1 years), and 51.9% were women. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 11.8% progressed to type 2 diabetes and 10.1% died. The final prediction model included HbA1c, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), any antihypertensive drug use, pancreatic disease, cancer, self-reported diet, doctor's advice to lose weight or change dietary habits, having someone to talk to, and self-rated health. In the validation sample, the 5-year area under the curve was 72.7 (95% CI 71.2 to 74.3), and the model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to well-known pre-diabetes predictors such as age, sex, and BMI, we found that measures of self-rated lifestyle, health, and social support are important and modifiable predictors for diabetes. Our model had an acceptable discriminative ability and was well calibrated.

External validation and extension of the Early Prediction of Functional Outcome after Stroke (EPOS) prediction model for upper limb outcome 3 months after stroke

Objective

The ‘Early Prediction of Functional Outcome after Stroke’ (EPOS) model was developed to predict the presence of at least some upper limb capacity (Action Research Am Test [ARAT] ≥10/57) at 6 months based on assessments on days 2, 5 and 9 after stroke. External validation of the model is the next step towards clinical implementation. The objective here is to externally validate the EPOS model for upper limb outcome 3 months poststroke in Switzerland and extend the model using an ARAT cut-off at 32 points.

Methods

Data from two prospective longitudinal cohort studies including first-ever stroke patients admitted to a Swiss stroke center were analyzed. The presence of finger extension and shoulder abduction was measured on days 1 and 8 poststroke in Cohort 1, and on days 3 and 9 in Cohort 2. Upper limb capacity was measured 3 months poststroke. Discrimination (area under the curve; AUC) and calibration obtained with the model were determined.

Results

In Cohort 1 (N = 39, median age 74 years), the AUC on day 1 was 0.78 (95%CI 0.61, 0.95) and 0.96 (95%CI 0.90, 1.00) on day 8, using the model of day 5. In Cohort 2 (N = 85, median age 69 years), the AUC was 0.96 (95%CI 0.93, 0.99) on day 3 and 0.89 (95% CI 0.80, 0.98) on day 9. Applying a 32-point ARAT cut-off resulted in an AUC ranging from 0.82 (95%CI 0.68, 0.95; Cohort 1, day 1) to 0.95 (95%CI 0.87, 1.00; Cohort 1, day 8).

Conclusions

The EPOS model was successfully validated in first-ever stroke patients with mild-to-moderate neurological impairments, who were independent before their stroke. Now, its impact on clinical practice should be investigated in this population. Testing the model’s performance in severe (recurrent) strokes and stratification of patients using the ARAT 32-point cut-off is required to enhance the model’s generalizability and potential clinical impact.

External validation of inpatient neonatal mortality prediction models in high-mortality settings

BACKGROUND

Two neonatal mortality prediction models, the Neonatal Essential Treatment Score (NETS) which uses treatments prescribed at admission and the Score for Essential Neonatal Symptoms and Signs (SENSS) which uses basic clinical signs, were derived in high-mortality, low-resource settings to utilise data more likely to be available in these settings. In this study, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of two neonatal prediction models for all-cause in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

We used retrospectively collected routine clinical data recorded by duty clinicians at admission from 16 Kenyan hospitals used to externally validate and update the SENSS and NETS models that were initially developed from the data from the largest Kenyan maternity hospital to predict in-hospital mortality. Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, the ability of the model to differentiate between those with and without the outcome, was measured using the c-statistic. Calibration, the agreement between predictions from the model and what was observed, was measured using the calibration intercept and slope (with values of 0 and 1 denoting perfect calibration).

RESULTS

At initial external validation, the estimated mortality risks from the original SENSS and NETS models were markedly overestimated with calibration intercepts of - 0.703 (95% CI - 0.738 to - 0.669) and - 1.109 (95% CI - 1.148 to - 1.069) and too extreme with calibration slopes of 0.565 (95% CI 0.552 to 0.577) and 0.466 (95% CI 0.451 to 0.480), respectively. After model updating, the calibration of the model improved. The updated SENSS and NETS models had calibration intercepts of 0.311 (95% CI 0.282 to 0.350) and 0.032 (95% CI - 0.002 to 0.066) and calibration slopes of 1.029 (95% CI 1.006 to 1.051) and 0.799 (95% CI 0.774 to 0.823), respectively, while showing good discrimination with c-statistics of 0.834 (95% CI 0.829 to 0.839) and 0.775 (95% CI 0.768 to 0.782), respectively. The overall calibration performance of the updated SENSS and NETS models was better than any existing neonatal in-hospital mortality prediction models externally validated for settings comparable to Kenya.

CONCLUSION

Few prediction models undergo rigorous external validation. We show how external validation using data from multiple locations enables model updating and improving their performance and potential value. The improved models indicate it is possible to predict in-hospital mortality using either treatments or signs and symptoms derived from routine neonatal data from low-resource hospital settings also making possible their use for case-mix adjustment when contrasting similar hospital settings.

Adaptation of a clinical reasoning model for use in inflammatory conditions of the lactating breast: a retrospective mixed-methods study

Background

Many potential factors associated with Inflammatory Conditions of the Lactating Breast (ICLB) have been reported in the literature, by lactating mothers and clinicians. Clinicians, including general practitioners, lactation consultants and physiotherapists, require a clinical reasoning model that summarises associated or linked factors, to aid in the assessment, treatment, and prevention of ICLB. Thus, we aimed to adapt the existing Breastfeeding Pain Reasoning Model (BPRM), for use in the management of ICLB, using prior research and clinical audit data to guide adaptation. The existing BPRM categorises contributing factors for breastfeeding nipple pain, rather than ICLB.

Methods

Factors linked with ICLB were identified from prior research and considered for inclusion into the existing model. Clinical data from a retrospective audit of ICLB patient notes at a private physiotherapy practice were also examined. Any factors identified from prior research that could not be identified in the clinical notes were not considered for inclusion into the existing model. Additional factors from the clinical notes that appeared repeatedly were considered for inclusion into the adaptation of the BPRM. A draft adapted model was created comprising all eligible factors, considering their counts and percentages as calculated from the clinical data. The research team iteratively examined all factors for appropriate categorisation and modification within the adapted model.

Results

Prior research and data from 160 clinical notes were used to identify factors for inclusion in the adapted model. A total of 57 factors, 13 pre-existing in the BPRM and 44 extra identified from the prior research or clinical audit, comprised the draft adapted model. Factor consolidation and terminology modification resulted in a total of 34 factors in the final proposed adapted ICLB model. The three main categories, CNS modulation, External influences and Local stimulation, from the existing model were maintained, with one minor terminology change to the former Local stimulation category, resulting in 'Local influences' category. Terminology for five subcategories were modified to better reflect the types of factors for ICLB. The most common factors in the adapted model, calculated from the clinical audit population of mothers with ICLB, were employment (85%), high socioeconomic status (81%), antibiotic use during breastfeeding (61%), history of an ICLB (56%), any breast pump use (45%), multiparity (43%), birth interventions (35%), decreased milk transfer (33%), breastfeeding behaviour and practices (33%), nipple pain (30%) and fit and hold (attachment and positioning) difficulty (28%).

Conclusion

An ICLB-specific linked factors model is proposed in this paper. Clinicians treating mothers with ICLB can use this model to identify influencing and determining factors of ICLB clinical presentations and provide targeted education and effective treatment plans.

[Methodology for the elaboration of prognosis studies]

Prognostic studies are investigations to estimate the risk or probability of future outcomes in people with established disease. Ideally based on cohort studies where it is established: the time of onset or analysis of the evolution of a disease, the follow-up period for the outcome of interest, the type of outcome and the prognostic factors or markers to investigate. Ultimately, the decision on how to run and analyze forecast studies will depend on their purpose: exploratory, explanatory, or predictive.