Characterization of the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C viruses among migrant workers in Qatar

Limited data exist on viral hepatitis among migrant populations. This study investigated the prevalence of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and lifetime hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among Qatar's migrant craft and manual workers (CMWs), constituting 60% of the country's population. Sera collected during a nationwide COVID-19 population-based cross-sectional survey on CMWs between July 26 and September 9, 2020, underwent testing for HBsAg and HCV antibodies. Reactive samples underwent confirmatory testing, and logistic regression analyses were employed to explore associations with HBV and HCV infections. Among 2528 specimens tested for HBV infection, 15 were reactive, with 8 subsequently confirmed positive. Three samples lacked sufficient sera for confirmatory testing but were included in the analysis through multiple imputations. Prevalence of current HBV infection was 0.4% (95% CI 0.2-0.7%). Educational attainment and occupation were significantly associated with current HBV infection. For HCV infection, out of 2607 specimens tested, 46 were reactive, and 23 were subsequently confirmed positive. Prevalence of lifetime HCV infection was 0.8% (95% CI 0.5-1.2%). Egyptians exhibited the highest prevalence at 6.5% (95% CI 3.1-13.1%), followed by Pakistanis at 3.1% (95% CI 1.1-8.0%). Nationality, geographic location, and occupation were significantly associated with lifetime HCV infection. HBV infection is relatively low among CMWs, while HCV infection falls within the intermediate range, both compared to global and regional levels.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma associated with hepatitis C genotype 3 infection: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne virus which globally affects around 79 million people and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Chronic infection leads to cirrhosis in a large proportion of patients and often causes hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with cirrhosis. Of the 6 HCV genotypes (G1-G6), genotype-3 accounts for 17.9% of infections. HCV genotype-3 responds least well to directly-acting antivirals and patients with genotype-3 infection are at increased risk of HCC even if they do not have cirrhosis.

AIM

To systematically review and critically appraise all risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV-G3 in all settings. Consequently, we studied possible risk factors for HCC due to HCV-G3 in the literature from 1946 to 2023.

METHODS

This systematic review aimed to synthesise existing and published studies of risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3 and evaluate their strengths and limitations. We searched Web of Science, Medline, EMBASE, and CENTRAL for publications reporting risk factors for HCC due to HCV genotype-3 in all settings, 1946-2023.

RESULTS

Four thousand one hundred and forty-four records were identified from the four databases with 260 records removed as duplicates. Three thousand eight hundred and eighty-four records were screened with 3514 excluded. Three hundred and seventy-one full-texts were assessed for eligibility with seven studies included for analysis. Of the seven studies, three studies were retrospective case-control trials, two retrospective cohort studies, one a prospective cohort study and one a cross-sectional study design. All were based in hospital settings with four in Pakistan, two in South Korea and one in the United States. The total number of participants were 9621 of which 167 developed HCC (1.7%). All seven studies found cirrhosis to be a risk factor for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3 followed by higher age (five-studies), with two studies each showing male sex, high alpha feto-protein, directly-acting antivirals treatment and achievement of sustained virologic response as risk factors for developing HCC.

CONCLUSION

Although, studies have shown that HCV genotype-3 infection is an independent risk factor for end-stage liver disease, HCC, and liver-related death, there is a lack of evidence for specific risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3. Only cirrhosis and age have demonstrated an association; however, the number of studies is very small, and more research is required to investigate risk factors for HCC secondary to HCV genotype-3.

Progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission update

The top 20 highest burdened countries (in disability-adjusted life years) account for more than 75% of the global burden of viral hepatitis. An effective response in these 20 countries is crucial if global elimination targets are to be achieved. In this update of the Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission on accelerating the elimination of viral hepatitis, we convene national experts from each of the top 20 highest burdened countries to provide an update on progress. Although the global burden of diseases is falling, progress towards elimination varies greatly by country. By use of a hepatitis elimination policy index conceived as part of the 2019 Commission, we measure countries' progress towards elimination. Progress in elimination policy has been made in 14 of 20 countries with the highest burden since 2018, with the most substantial gains observed in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia. Most improvements are attributable to the publication of formalised national action plans for the elimination of viral hepatitis, provision of publicly funded screening programmes, and government subsidisation of antiviral treatments. Key themes that emerged from discussion between national commissioners from the highest burdened countries build on the original recommendations to accelerate the global elimination of viral hepatitis. These themes include the need for simplified models of care, improved access to appropriate diagnostics, financing initiatives, and rapid implementation of lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ascitic Fluid Lactate Level as a Predictor of Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Having Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis (SBP)

Introduction Limited studies are available for predicting mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) based on ascitic fluid analysis. Recently, a proposition has been made regarding the role of ascitic fluid lactate as a better prognostic indicator of mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the utility of ascitic fluid lactate in predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP. Methods This was a prospective, observational study that was conducted in the Hepato-Gastroenterology Department of Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT), Karachi from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022. All the patients having liver cirrhosis with ascites, aged between 18 and 65 years, and presenting with fever and/or abdominal pain were recruited in the study in the first six months (i.e., from 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022) and were followed for six more months for the outcome. However, those patients on dialysis or those with hepatocellular carcinoma, any other malignancy as per a history of solid organ transplant, a history of HIV infection, or those underlying systemic sepsis or infections other than SBP were excluded from the study. The presence or absence of SBP was confirmed by doing the ascitic fluid analysis. Ascitic fluid lactate levels were also requested in each patient. Mortality was assessed at one, two, three, and six months, respectively. All the data were analyzed using SPSS version 23.0. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was obtained for ascitic fluid lactate for predicting mortality in SBP. At an optimal cutoff, the diagnostic accuracy of ascitic fluid lactate was obtained. Results The total number of cirrhotic patients included in the study was 123. The majority of the patients belong to Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) class C (n = 88; 71%). Two third of the patients (65.8%; n = 81) had viral hepatitis i.e., hepatitis B, D, and/or C, as the cause of cirrhosis. Overall mortality was observed in 51(41.5%) patients. Ascitic fluid lactate was significantly raised in patients with SBP than in patients with non-SBP (p = 0.004). The AUROC of ascitic fluid lactate was highest at three months (AUROC = 0.88) followed by six months (AUROC = 0.84), two months (AUROC = 0.804), and one month (AUROC=0.773). At an optimal cut-off of more than or equal to 22.4 mg/dl, ascitic fluid lactate had a sensitivity of 84.9%, specificity of 85.7%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 97.3%, negative predictive value of 42.8% with diagnostic accuracy of 85% in predicting overall mortality in patients with SBP. On sub-analysis, the diagnostic accuracy of ascitic fluid lactate was highest at six months followed by at three, two, and one month, respectively. Conclusion Ascitic fluid lactate showed a good diagnostic utility in predicting the overall mortality in patients with SBP with the best diagnostic accuracy in predicting long-term (six months) mortality. However, further studies are required to validate our results.

Perceived Social Support and Anxiety among Chronic Hepatitis-C Patients

Objective

To study the relationship of perceived social support (PSS) and anxiety among patients of Chronic Hepatitis C (CHC).

Methods

It is a cross sectional survey conducted from March 2021 to December 2021 in different hospitals of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Sampling was done through purposive and snowball technique. Self-administered and standardized questionnaires were used. To analyze perceived social support and anxiety, perceived social support "scale" and Beck anxiety inventory were used in patients of Hepatitis C. Patients Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) positive HCV patients between the ages 31 to 50 years were included. Patients with comorbid conditions and other than 31 to 50 years of age were excluded from the study.

Results

Out of 250, males were 185(74%) and females 65(26%). Ages were between 31 to 50 years. PSS in both males and females was 49.8 and 49 (p=0.63%) with anxiety level 44.63 and 56.18 (p=0.00) respectively. There was no significant gender differences on PSS but women had significantly higher on anxiety (M = 56.18, SD = 11.36) with moderate effect size (>.05). PSS had significant negative correlation with anxiety (r = -.31, p < .05).

Conclusion

Anxiety is more common in females and perceived social support has negative correlation with anxiety in patients of Chronic Hepatitis C.

National hepatitis registry in Pakistan: a dire need for hepatitis surveillance and control

Hepatitis is a major public health issue in Pakistan, with an estimated 11.55% prevalence of HCV infection in the adult population. The country ranks second globally in terms of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, with approximately one in every 20 Pakistanis already infected. The mortality rates due to HBV and HCV stand at 563,000 and 366,000 annually, respectively. However, the absence of a national registry or database system and the lack of coordination among provinces pose significant obstacles in combating this disease effectively. To address this issue, the establishment of a centralized national database registry is crucial, allowing comprehensive analysis, tracking of hepatitis prevalence, and identification of high-risk areas for targeted interventions. By fostering collaboration among provinces, the government, and non-governmental organizations, the registry would facilitate joint decision-making, minimize duplication of efforts, and address inconsistencies in diagnosis and treatment. Collaborating with student-run organizations and leveraging enhanced laboratory capacities post-COVID era can strengthen the hepatitis control program. The centralized approach and unified efforts are necessary to achieve the goal of a hepatitis-free Pakistan, where a healthier future can be realized.

Treatment as prevention for hepatitis C virus in the Middle East and North Africa: a modeling study

Background

Direct-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries.

Methods

An age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years by 2030.

Results

In the target-80%-incidence-reduction scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 2,610 in Lebanon to 180,416 in Sudan with a median of 53,079, and treatment coverage ranged between 40.2 and 78.4% with a median of 60.4%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection ranged between 0.0 and 0.3% with a median of 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, ranged between 0.9 and 16.3 with a median of 3.2. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 47.8 and 81.9% with a median of 68.5%, and number of averted infections ranged between 401 and 68,499 with a median of 8,703. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.7 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 6.5. In the target incidence rate  < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario, number of treatments administrated by 2030 ranged from 3,470 in Lebanon to 211,912 in Sudan with a median of 54,479, and treatment coverage ranged between 55.5 and 95.9% with a median of 87.5%. By 2030, prevalence of chronic infection was less than 0.1%, and incidence rate, per 100,000 person-years, reached less than 1. Program-attributed reduction in incidence rate ranged between 61.0 and 97.5% with a median of 90.7%, and number of averted infections ranged between 559 and 104,315 with a median of 12,158. Number of treatments needed to prevent one new infection ranged from 1.3 in Oman to 25.9 in Tunisia with a median of 5.5.

Conclusion

HCV-TasP is an effective and indispensable prevention intervention to control MENA's HCV epidemic and to achieve elimination by 2030.

Assessing the potential cost-effectiveness of centralised versus point-of-care testing for hepatitis C virus in Pakistan: a model-based comparison

OBJECTIVES

Pakistan has a hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection prevalence of 6%-9% and aims to achieve World Health Organisation (WHO) targets for elimination of HCV by the year 2030. We aim to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of a reference laboratory-based (centralised laboratory testing; CEN) confirmatory testing approach versus a molecular near-patient point-of-care (POC) confirmatory approach to screen the general population for HCV in Pakistan.

STUDY DESIGN

We used a decision tree-analytic model from a governmental (formal healthcare sector) perspective.

STUDY SETTING

Individuals were assumed to be initially screened with an anti-HCV test at home, followed by POC nucleic acid test (NAT) at nearby district hospitals or followed by NAT at centralised laboratories.

PARTICIPANTS

We included the general testing population for chronic HCV in Pakistan.

INTERVENTION

Screening with an anti-HCV antibody test (Anti-HCV) followed by either POC NAT (Anti-HCV-POC), or reference laboratory NAT (Anti-HCV-CEN), was compared, using data from published literature and the Pakistan Ministry of Health.

MEASURES

Outcome measures included: number of HCV infections identified per year, percentage of individuals correctly classified, total costs, average costs per individual tested, and cost-effectiveness (assessed as cost per additional HCV infection identified). Sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

At a national level (25 million annual screening tests), the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy would identify 142 406 more HCV infections in 1 year and increase correct classification of individuals by 0.57% compared with the Anti-HCV-POC strategy. The total annual cost of HCV testing was reduced using the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy by US$7.68 million (US$0.31/person). Thus, incrementally, the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy costs less and identifies more HCV infections than Anti-HCV-POC. The incremental difference in HCV infections identified was most sensitive to the probability of loss to follow-up (for POC confirmatory NAT).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-HCV-CEN would provide the best value for money when scaling up HCV testing in Pakistan.

Characterizing trends and associations for hepatitis C virus antibody prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa: meta-regression analyses

This study characterized population-level trends and associations with hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Data source was the standardized and systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects univariable and multivariable meta-regressions were conducted. 2,621 HCV Ab prevalence measures on 49,824,108 individuals were analyzed. In the analysis including all populations, 71% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by at-risk population type. Compared to the general population, prevalence was 23-fold higher among people who inject drugs, and 14-fold higher among high-risk clinical populations. In the analysis including only the general population, 67% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by country/subregion. Compared to Afghanistan, prevalence was highest in Egypt and Pakistan. Prevalence in the general population was declining at a rate of 4% per year, but outside the general population, the decline was at only 1% per year. HCV Ab prevalence in MENA is declining rapidly, but this decline is largely occurring in the general population following introduction of blood and injection safety measures. The decline in populations at higher risk of exposure is slow and below the level needed to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 genetic variants and hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in Pakistani chronic hepatitis C patients: a genetic association study

Background

The present study investigates if common missense functional variants p.I148M and p.E167K in PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 genes, respectively, associate with development of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in a geographically novel cohort of Pakistani chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients.

Methods

In total, 502 Pakistani CHC patients [242 males, median age 40 years, 220 with significant hepatic fibrosis, including 114 with cirrhosis] were genotyped for PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 variants using TaqMan genotyping assays. Associations between genotypes, biochemical and clinical parameters were evaluated.

Results

Genotypic distributions for PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 polymorphisms conformed to Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium and did not associate with fibrosis grades ≥ F2 or cirrhosis in any of the genetic models tested (all p =  > 0.05). PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 variants did not modulate baseline characteristics and serum markers of liver injury in CHC patients. Similarly, increasing number of risk alleles of PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 polymorphisms had no trend effect on serum liver enzyme activities or proportion of CHC patients with significant or advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis (p =  > 0.05). The same trend of no association with hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis persisted in the multivariate logistic regression models adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and HCV viral load (p =  > 0.05).

Conclusions

PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 variants do not appear to modulate development of hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis in present CHC patients of Pakistani origin, and may be of more relevance in liver pathology involving abnormalities in hepatic fat accumulation. These results also reflect the divergent associations observed for different genetic modifiers of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis in distinct ethnicities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02469-6.

Identification of NS5B Resistance against SOFOSBUVIR in Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 3a, naive and treated Patients

AIMS

Pakistan has the second highest prevalence of HCV with genotype 3a (GT-3a) being the most frequently circulating genotype. Currently resistance associated substitutions (RASs) are a major challenge in HCV treatment with direct acting antivirals (DAAs). Sofosbuvir (SOF) is an FDA-approved NS5B nucleotide inhibitor. The aim of this study was to identify these RASs in the NS5B gene in naive and treated Pakistani HCV 3a isolates against SOF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Blood samples were collected from anti-HCV positive patients, followed by HCV RNA isolation and real time PCR quantification. HCV positive patients were processed for HCV RNA genotyping, Patients with genotype 3a were processed for NS5B gene amplification and sequencing. GT-3a was the most prevalent genotype (62.2%). S282T was identified in 2 (8.7%) patients, C316Y/G/R in 3 (13%), V321A, and L320P in 1 (4.3%) each in SOF/RBV resistant patients. Variants of S282 were detected in 3 (13%) of SOF/RBV treated patients. While INF/RBV associated mutations were also analyzed, D244N, A333R, and A334E were identified in 2 (9.5%), 3 (14.2%), and 7 (33.3%) in treatment-naive and 15 (65.2%), 7 (30.4%), and 5 (21.7%) treated patients respectively. Q309R was observed only in one treatment experienced patients. Some substitutions were present at higher frequency in both groups like N307G, K304R, A272D and R345H, considered that they do not have any role in Sofosbuvir resistance.

CONCLUSION

It was concluded that Sofosbuvir RASs are present in Pakistani HCV GT-3a isolates, and they should be monitored carefully, especially in treatment-experienced patients, for further selection of treatment regimens.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF STUDY

HCV RASs have been studied very well across the world but there is scarcity of data regarding this topic in Pakistani population, this study provides data regarding prevalence of these RASs in Pakistani HCV isolates emphasizing the fact that these RASs must be carefully monitored before starting HCV treatment especially in treatment failure patients.

Hepatitis C virus transmission cluster among injection drug users in Pakistan

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are public health problem across the globe, particularly in developing countries. Pakistan has the second highest prevalence of HCV infection worldwide. Limited data exist from Pakistan about persons who inject drugs (PWID) and are at significant risk of exposure to HCV infection and transmission. Serum specimens (n = 110) collected from PWID residing in four provinces were tested for molecular markers of HCV infection. Next generation sequencing (NGS) of the hypervariable region (HVR1) of HCV and Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST) were used to determine HCV genotype, genetic heterogeneity, and construct transmission networks. Among tested specimens, 47.3% were found anti-HCV positive and 34.6% were HCV RNA-positive and belonged to four genotypes, with 3a most prevalent followed by 1a, 1b and 4a. Variants sampled from five cases formed phylogenetic cluster and a transmission network. One case harbored infection with two different genotypes. High prevalence of infections and presence of various genotypes indicate frequent introduction and transmission of HCV among PWID in Pakistan. Identification of a transmission cluster across three provinces, involving 20% of all cases, suggests the existence of a countrywide transmission network among PWIDs. Understanding the structure of this network should assist in devising effective public health strategies to eliminate HCV infection in Pakistan.

Prevalence and assessment of the associated risk factors of hepatitis B and C infections in the low socioeconomic communities

Aim: This study determined the prevalence and risk factors associated with hepatitis B and C among the low socioeconomic population. Materials & methods: A total of 1004 participants were screened for hepatitis B/C infection and risk factors from six different localities of Islamabad, Pakistan Results: The prevalence rate of hepatitis B and C was 1 and 4%, respectively. Chi-square test showed hepatitis B/C infection was related with marital status, hepatitis B vaccination, blood recipients and family income. Multivariable analysis showed hepatitis B vaccination, exposure to therapeutic injections, dental visits, exposure to HCV patients and age of participants were independently associated with hepatitis C infection. Conclusion: The risk of hepatitis B/C infection is multifactorial and the population needs to be vaccinated at a larger scale to avoid outbreaks.

Hepatitis C virus among blood donors and general population in Middle East and North Africa: Meta-analyses and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Despite the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region reported to have the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) globally, HCV infection levels in the majority of MENA countries remain inadequately characterized. Blood donor data have been previously used as a proxy to assess levels and trends of HCV in the general population, however, it is unclear how comparable these populations are in MENA and whether blood donors provide an appropriate proxy.

AIM

To delineate HCV epidemiology among blood donors and the general population in the MENA.

METHODS

The data source was the systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. For comparison, analyses were conducted for Europe, utilizing the Hepatitis C Prevalence Database of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

RESULTS

One thousand two hundred and thirteen HCV antibody prevalence measures and 84 viremic rate measures were analyzed for MENA. Three hundred and seventy-seven antibody prevalence measures were analyzed for Europe. In MENA, pooled mean prevalence was 1.58% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.48%–1.69%] among blood donors and 4.49% (95%CI: 4.10%–4.90%) in the general population. In Europe, pooled prevalence was 0.11% (95%CI: 0.10%–0.13%) among blood donors and 1.59% (95%CI: 1.25%–1.97%) in the general population. Prevalence in the general population was 1.72-fold (95%CI: 1.50–1.97) higher than that in blood donors in MENA, but it was 15.10-fold (95%CI: 11.48–19.86) higher in Europe. Prevalence was declining at a rate of 4% per year in both MENA and Europe [adjusted risk ratio: 0.96 (95%CI: 0.95–0.97) in MENA and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.92–0.99) in Europe]. Pooled mean viremic rate in MENA was 76.29% (95%CI: 67.64%–84.02%) among blood donors and 65.73% (95%CI: 61.03%–70.29%) in the general population.

CONCLUSION

Blood donor data provide a useful proxy for HCV infection in the wider population in MENA, but not Europe, and could improve HCV burden estimations and assess progress toward HCV elimination by 2030.

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Modelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY). Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV.

CONCLUSIONS

Investment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Next-generation sequencing studies on the E1-HVR1 region of hepatitis C virus (HCV) from non-high-risk HCV patients living in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

The incidence rate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Pakistan is very high. In this study, we evaluated the genetic heterogeneity of HCV hypervariable region 1 (HVR1) from the HCV-infected Pakistani population and compare the isolated genotypes with representative sequences from internationally diverse geographic regions. We also investigated potential transmission events in non-high-risk HCV patients. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) data from the E1-HVR1 region from 30 HCV patients were used for phylogenetic analysis. Reference sequences were retrieved from the Los Alamos HCV and GenBank databases. NGS data were analyzed to examine HCV HVR1 sequence diversity and identify transmission links among HCV-infected individuals using Global Hepatitis Outbreak and Surveillance Technology (GHOST). Phylogenetic analysis showed the predominance of HCV genotype 3a (86.6%), followed by 1a (6.6%), 1b (3.3%), and 3b (3.3%). NGS of HVR1 displayed significant genetic heterogeneity of HCV populations within each patient. The average nucleotide sequence diversity for HVR1 was 0.055. JR781281 was found to be the most diverse (0.14) of the specimens. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that all HCV specimens sequenced in this study were more similar to each other and showed variations from the representative sequences. The GHOST results suggested genetic relatedness between two (6.6%) HCV cases, possibly defining an incipient outbreak in a non-high-risk population. We urge rigorous countrywide investigation of outbreaks to identify transmission clusters and their sources to incorporate preventive measures for disease control.

Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes in Punjab region, Pakistan, based on a study of 4177 specimens

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a heterogenetic infectious agent that affects a huge proportion of population around the globe. Diverse distribution of multiple subtypes of HCV makes it mandatory and remarkably imperative to understand the genotypic distribution in target population. It could serve as an indictive guideline for the improvement of diagnostic methodologies, and development of effective therapies against this viral infection, in order to improve the infected patients' quality of life. This study included HCV infected patients presented to the diagnostic facility of the Centre for Applied Molecular Biology, University of Punjab, Lahore, between 2016 and 2019. During the 4 years of study, samples were collected from 4177 subjects. Our data revealed no significant differences regarding the prevalence of various genotypes between genders in the adult population. Genotyping was carried out by following the Ohno protocol. The obtained results shown that genotype 3a is the most frequent genotype and accounts for 66.29% of cases. Among other genotypes, 1a is 2.11%, 1b is 0.07%, 3b is 1.89%, 5a is 0.02%, while genome of 28.23% patients was untypable; 1.22% of the samples were non-detectable as viremic. An important concern is that this untypable genome in HCV infected patients may indicate possible mutation of HCV.

Thalassemia Patients from Baluchistan in Pakistan Are Infected with Multiple Hepatitis B or C Virus Strains

There are an estimated 2,000 children with β-thalassemia in the province Baluchistan of Pakistan. These children are at high risk of acquiring transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) due to their need of regular blood transfusions for survival. Therefore, we investigated the frequencies of TTIs among these multi-transfused patients in a region where the WHO guidelines for blood safety are not always followed. Sera from 400 children (mean age 7.7 ± 4.70 years) treated at two thalassemia centers in Baluchistan were investigated for TTIs. Eleven (2.8%) were hepatitis B surface antigen positive, and 72 (18.3%) had anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV), two of which were infected with both viruses. Only 22% of the children had been reached by the program for universal hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination which started in 2004. Half (51%) of the HCV infected had also been HBV infected. The HBV- and HCV-infected patients were older and had received more blood transfusions than the uninfected patients (P < 0.001). Molecular characterization of the viral strains revealed the presence of several genetically different strains in at least three HBV- and seven HCV-infected children. This is the first study to demonstrate infections with multiple HBV or HCV strains simultaneously infecting thalassemia patients. These may become the source for new emerging recombinant viruses of unknown virulence. The high prevalence of anti-HCV-positive children, and the presence of HBV infections among children who should have been vaccinated, highlights an urgent need for improvements of blood safety in this region of Pakistan.

State of the Hepatitis C Virus Care Cascade

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The status of hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People who inject drugs (PWID) are a key population at high risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The aim of this study was to delineate the epidemiology of HCV in PWID in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

METHODS

Syntheses of data were conducted on the standardized and systematically assembled databases of the MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project, 1989-2018. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed. Meta-regression variables included country, study site, year of data collection and year of publication [to assess trends in HCV antibody prevalence over time], sample size and sampling methodology. Numbers of chronically infected PWID across MENA were estimated. The Shannon Diversity Index was calculated to assess genotype diversity.

RESULTS

Based on 118 HCV antibody prevalence measures, the pooled mean prevalence in PWID for all MENA was 49.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 44.4-54.1%]. The country-specific pooled mean ranged from 21.7% (95% CI = 4.9-38.6%) in Tunisia to 94.2% (95% CI = 90.8-96.7%) in Libya. An estimated 221 704 PWID were chronically infected, with the largest numbers found in Iran at 68 526 and in Pakistan at 46 554. There was no statistically significant evidence for a decline in HCV antibody prevalence over time. Genotype diversity was moderate (Shannon Diversity Index of 1.01 out of 1.95; 52.1%). The pooled mean percentage for each HCV genotype was highest in genotype 3 (42.7%) and in genotype 1 (35.9%).

CONCLUSION

Half of people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa appear to have ever been infected with hepatitis C virus, but there are large variations in antibody prevalence among countries. In addition to > 200 000 chronically infected current people who inject drugs, there is an unknown number of people who no longer inject drugs who may have acquired hepatitis C virus during past injecting drug use. Harm reduction services must be expanded, and innovative strategies need to be employed to ensure accessibility to hepatitis C virus testing and treatment.

Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Populations With Liver-Related Diseases in the Middle East and North Africa

We investigated hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in populations with liver‐related diseases (LRDs) in the Middle East and North Africa. The data source was standardized databases of HCV measures populated through systematic reviews. Random‐effects meta‐analyses and meta‐regressions were performed, and genotype diversity was assessed. Analyses were based on 252 HCV antibody prevalence measures, eight viremic rate measures, and 30 genotype measures on 132,358 subjects. Pooled mean prevalence in LRD populations was 58.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.5%‐66.0%) in Egypt and 55.8% (95% CI, 49.1%‐62.4%) in Pakistan; these values were higher than in other countries, which had a pooled prevalence of only 15.6% (95% CI, 12.4%‐19.0%). Mean prevalence was highest in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma at 56.9% (95% CI, 50.2%‐63.5%) and those with cirrhosis at 50.4% (95% CI, 40.8%‐60.0%). Type of LRD population and country were the strongest predictors of prevalence, explaining 48.6% of the variation. No evidence for prevalence decline was found, but there was strong evidence for prevalence increase in Pakistan. A strong, positive association was identified between prevalence in the general population and that in LRD populations; the Pearson correlation coefficient ranged between 0.605 and 0.862. The pooled mean viremic rate was 75.5% (95% CI, 61.0%‐87.6%). Genotype 4 was most common (44.2%), followed by genotype 3 (34.5%), genotype 1 (17.0%), genotype 2 (3.5%), genotype 6 (0.5%), and genotype 5 (0.3%). Conclusion: HCV appears to play a dominant role in liver diseases in Egypt and Pakistan and has a growing role in Pakistan. Testing and treatment of LRD populations are essential to reduce disease burden and transmission and to reach HCV elimination by 2030.