A systematic review of the magnitude and cause of geographic variation in unplanned hospital admission rates and length of stay for ambulatory care sensitive conditions

Identifying high-impact-opportunity hospitals for improving healthcare quality based on a national population analysis of inter-hospital variation in mortality, readmissions and prolonged length of stay

OBJECTIVES

To study between-hospital variation in mortality, readmissions and prolonged length of stay across Belgian hospitals.

DESIGN

A retrospective nationwide observational study.

SETTING

Secondary and tertiary acute-care hospitals in Belgium.

PARTICIPANTS

We studied 4 560 993 hospital stays in 99 (98%) Belgian acute-care hospitals between 2016 and 2018.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Using generalised linear mixed models, we calculated hospital-specific and Major Diagnostic Category (MDC)-specific risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality, readmissions within 30 days and length of stay above the MDC-specific 90th percentile and assessed between-hospital variation through estimated variance components.

RESULTS

There was strong evidence of between-hospital variation in mortality, readmissions and prolonged length of stay across the vast majority of patient service lines. Overall, should hospitals with upper-quartile risk-standardised rates succeed in improving to the median level, a yearly 4076 hospital deaths, 3671 readmissions and 15 787 long patient stays could potentially be avoided in those hospitals. Our analysis revealed a select set of 'high-impact-opportunity hospitals' characterised by poor performance across outcomes and across a large number of MDCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of between-hospital variation highlights important differences in patient outcomes that are not explained by known patient or hospital characteristics. Identifying 'high-impact-opportunity hospitals' can help government inspection bodies and hospital managers to establish targeted audits and inspections to generate effective quality improvement initiatives.

Length of stay in the pediatrics emergency department and associated factors among pediatrics patients in Eastern Ethiopia public hospital, Ethiopia 2022

INTRODUCTION

Patient length of stay is a crucial measure of the emergency department, and it is a vital indicator of health services to evaluate its efficacy, patient care, organizational management, and health care system. Despite this, there are a few studies conducted on pediatric emergency length of stay in developing countries. Therefore, this study serves as input for evidence of pediatric emergency length of stay and associated factors in public hospitals.

METHODS

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among children who attended in pediatric emergency department of Eastern Ethiopia public hospital from May 01 to Jun 31, 2022. A total of 761 children were selected by systematic sampling technique and interview using structured questionnaires. After data is collected and cleaned, entered using Epi data version 4.6 and then exported to Stata version 14.1 for analysis. Finally, an AOR with a 95% CI was computed, and variables with a P-value < 0.05 in the multivariable analysis were taken as significant factors for prolonged length of stay.

RESULT

The prevalence of prolonged length of stay in the emergency ward was 214 (72%). Living in a rural residence ([AOR = 1.65, 95% CI (1.10-2.48)], having a duration of pain > = 12 ([AOR = 1.92, 95% CI (1.13-3.25)], waiting time > = 5 minute ([AOR = 2.24, 95% CI (1.1-4.248541)], having comorbid illness ([AOR = 1.92, 95%CI, 1.13-3.25)], and higher acuity level and absence of medication in the hospital were ([AOR = 2.26, 95%CI (1.02-2.46]) were significantly associated factors for prolonged length of stay.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

This study revealed that more than two-thirds of children admitted to pediatric emergency had prolonged lengths of stay. This result indicated that higher proportion of the length of stay in pediatric emergency in Eastern Ethiopian public hospitals compare to national. Hence, it is better to give priority to strengthening the focused evaluation of important variables and manage accordingly.

The social experience of uncertainty: a qualitative analysis of emergency department care for suspected pneumonia for the design of decision support

BACKGROUND

This study sought to understand the process of clinical decision-making for suspected pneumonia by emergency departments (ED) providers in Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Centers. The long-term goal of this work is to create clinical decision support tools to reduce unwarranted variation in diagnosis and treatment of suspected pneumonia.

METHODS

Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 16 ED clinicians from 9 VA facilities demonstrating variation in antibiotic and hospitalization decisions. Interviews of ED providers focused on understanding decision making for provider-selected pneumonia cases and providers' organizational contexts.

RESULTS

Thematic analysis identified four salient themes: i) ED decision-making for suspected pneumonia is a social process; ii) the "diagnosis drives treatment" paradigm is poorly suited to pneumonia decision-making in the ED; iii) The unpredictability of the ED requires deliberate and effortful information management by providers in CAP decision-making; and iv) the emotional stakes and high uncertainty of pneumonia care drive conservative decision making.

CONCLUSIONS

Ensuring CDS reflects the realities of clinical work as a socially organized process with high uncertainty may ultimately improve communication between ED and admitting providers, continuity of care and patient outcomes.

Call for Action to Target Interhospital Variation in Cardiovascular Mortality, Readmissions, and Length-of-Stay: Results of a National Population Analysis

BACKGROUND

Excessive interhospital variation threatens healthcare quality. Data on variation in patient outcomes across the whole cardiovascular spectrum are lacking. We aimed to examine interhospital variability for 28 cardiovascular All Patient Refined-Diagnosis-related Groups (APR-DRGs).

METHODS

We studied 103,299 cardiovascular admissions in 99 (98%) Belgian acute-care hospitals between 2012 and 2018. Using generalized linear mixed models, we estimated hospital-specific and APR-DRG-specific risk-standardized rates for in-hospital mortality, 30-day readmissions, and length-of-stay above the APR-DRG-specific 90th percentile. Interhospital variation was assessed based on estimated variance components and time trends between the 2012-2014 and 2016-2018 periods were examined.

RESULTS

There was strong evidence of interhospital variation, with statistically significant variation across the 3 outcomes for 5 APR-DRGs after accounting for patient and hospital factors: percutaneous cardiovascular procedures with acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, hypertension, angina pectoris, and arrhythmia. Medical diagnoses, with in particular hypertension, heart failure, angina pectoris, and cardiac arrest, showed strongest variability, with hypertension displaying the largest median odds ratio for mortality (2.51). Overall, hospitals performing at the upper-quartile level should achieve improvements to the median level, and an annual 633 deaths, 322 readmissions, and 1578 extended hospital stays could potentially be avoided.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of interhospital variation highlights important outcome differences that are not explained by known patient or hospital characteristics. Targeting variation is therefore a promising strategy to improve cardiovascular care. Considering their treatment in multidisciplinary teams, policy makers, and managers should prioritize heart failure, hypertension, cardiac arrest, and angina pectoris improvements by targeting guideline implementation outside the cardiology department.

Hospital care direct costs due to ambulatory care sensitive conditions related to diabetes mellitus in the Mexican public healthcare system

BACKGROUND

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) incur substantial costs on the health system that could be partially avoided with adequate outpatient care. Complications of chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus (DM), are considered ACSC. Previous studies have shown that hospitalizations due to diabetes have a significant financial burden. In Mexico, DM is a major health concern and a leading cause of death, but there is limited evidence available. This study aimed to estimate the direct costs of hospitalizations by DM-related ACSC in the Mexican public health system.

METHODS

We selected three hospitals from each of Mexico's main public institutions: the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), the Ministry of Health (MoH), and the Institute of Social Security and Services for State Workers (ISSSTE). We employed a bottom-up microcosting approach from the healthcare provider perspective to estimate the total direct costs of hospitalizations for DM-related ACSC. Input data regarding length of stay (LoS), consultations, medications, colloid/crystalloid solutions, procedures, and laboratory/medical imaging studies were obtained from clinical records of a random sample of 532 hospitalizations out of a total of 1,803 DM-related ACSC (ICD-10 codes) discharges during 2016.

RESULTS

The average cost per DM-related ACSC hospitalization varies among institutions, ranging from $1,427 in the MoH to $1,677 in the IMSS and $1,754 in the ISSSTE. The three institutions' largest expenses are LoS and procedures. Peripheral circulatory and renal complications were the major drivers of hospitalization costs for patients with DM-related ACSC. Direct costs due to hospitalizations for DM-related ACSC in these three institutions represent 1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) dedicated to health and social services and 2% of total hospital care expenses.

CONCLUSIONS

The direct costs of hospitalizations for DM-related ACSC vary considerably across institutions. Disparities in such costs for the same ACSC among different institutions suggest potential disparities in care quality across primary and hospital settings (processes and resource utilization), which should be further investigated to ensure optimal supply utilization. Prioritizing preventive measures for peripheral circulatory and renal complications in DM patients could be highly beneficial.

Association between hospitalizations for sensitive conditions and quality of primary care

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between municipal rates of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) hospitalization and the quality of primary health care (PHC), socioeconomic, and demographic variables and those related to local characteristics of the health system from 2010 to 2019.

METHOD

Ecological time series study in Brazilian municipalities analyzing the correlation of ACSC hospitalization rates with PHC quality measured by the three cycles of the Primary Care Access and Program for improving primary care access and quality (PMAQ-AB). The study included municipalities whose teams participated in 80% or more of at least two PMAQ-AB cycles. The correlation between standardized ACSC hospitalization rates and PHC quality and other variables was analyzed. Spearman's test was used between the response variable and numerical explanatory variables. Generalized equations estimation was used as a multivariate model associating ACSC hospitalization rates with the other variables over the years.

RESULTS

A total of 3,500 municipalities were included in the models. The quality of PHC (PMAQ-AB score) showed an inverse association with the variation in ACSC hospitalization rates. Hospitalization rates fell by -2% per year every ten-point increase in the PMAQ-AB score, adjusted by the remaining variables. A one-unit increase in the beds per 1,000 inhabitants variable had an impact of approximately +6.4% on ACSC hospitalization rates. Regarding population size, larger municipalities had lower ACSC hospitalization rates. Increased PHC coverage and lower socioeconomic inequality were also associated with the reduction in hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in ACSC hospitalization rates over time was associated with an increase in the quality of PHC. It was also associated with a reduction in the number of hospital beds and municipalities with better socioeconomic indicators.

Regional variations in short stay urgent paediatric hospital admissions: a sequential mixed-methods approach exploring differences through data linkage and qualitative interviews

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this sequential mixed-methods study was to describe and understand how paediatric short stay admission (SSA) rates vary across Health Board regions of Scotland.

DESIGN

Exploratory sequential mixed-methods study. Routinely acquired data for the annual (per capita) SSA to hospital were compared across the 11 regions. Five diverse regions with different SSA per capita formed cases for qualitative interviews with health professionals and parents to explore how care pathways, service features and geography may influence decisions to admit.

SETTING

Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

All children admitted to hospital 2015-2017. Healthcare staff (n=48) and parents (n=15) were interviewed.

RESULTS

Of 171 039 urgent hospital admissions, 92 229 were SSAs, with a fivefold variation between 14 and 69/1000 children/year across regions. SSAs were higher for children in the most deprived compared with the least deprived communities. When expressed as a ratio of highest to lowest SSA/1000 children/year for diagnosed conditions between regions, the ratio was highest (10.1) for upper respiratory tract infection and lowest (2.8) for convulsions. Readmissions varied between 0.80 and 2.52/1000/year, with regions reporting higher SSA rates more likely to report higher readmission rates (r=0.70, p=0.016, n=11). Proximity and ease of access to services, local differences in service structure and configuration, national policy directives and disparities in how an SSA is defined were recognised by interviewees as explaining the observed regional variations in SSAs. Socioeconomic deprivation was seldom spontaneously raised by professionals when reflecting on reasons to refer or admit a child. Instead, greater emphasis was placed on the wider social circumstances and parents' capacity to cope with and manage their child's illness at home.

CONCLUSION

SSA rates for children vary quantitatively by region, condition and area deprivation and our interviews identify reasons for this. These findings can usefully inform future care pathway interventions.

Performing up to Nordic principles? Geographic and socioeconomic equity in ambulatory care sensitive conditions among older adults in capital areas of Denmark, Finland and Sweden in 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

Denmark, Finland and Sweden pursue equity in health for their citizens through universal health care. However, it is unclear if these services reach the older adult population equally across different socioeconomic positions or living areas. Thus, we assessed geographic and socioeconomic equity in primary health care (PHC) performance among the older adults in the capital areas of Denmark (Copenhagen), Finland (Helsinki) and Sweden (Stockholm) in 2000-2015. Hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) were applied as a proxy for PHC performance.

METHODS

We acquired individual level ACSCs for those aged ≥ 45 in 2000-2015 from national hospitalisation registers. To identify whether the disparities varied by age, we applied three age groups (those aged 45-64, 65-75 and ≥ 75). Socioeconomic disparities in ACSCs were described with incidence rate ratios (IRR) and annual rates by education, income and living-alone; and then analysed with biennial concentration indices by income. Geographic disparities were described with biennial ACSC rates by small areas and analysed with two-level Poisson multilevel models. These models provided small area estimates of IRRs of ACSCs in 2000 and their slopes for development over time, between which Pearson correlations were calculated within each capital area. Finally, these models were adjusted for income to distinguish between geographic and socioeconomic disparities.

RESULTS

Copenhagen had the highest IRR of ACSCs among those aged 45-64, and Helsinki among those aged ≥ 75. Over time IRRs decreased among those aged ≥ 45, but only in Helsinki among those aged ≥ 75. All concentration indices slightly favoured the affluent population but in Stockholm were mainly non-significant. Among those aged ≥ 75, Pearson correlations were low in Copenhagen (-0.14; p = 0.424) but high in both Helsinki (-0.74; < 0.001) and Stockholm (-0.62; < 0.001) - with only little change when adjusted for income. Among those aged ≥ 45 the respective correlations were rather similar, except for a strong correlation in Copenhagen (-0.51, 0.001) after income adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

While socioeconomic disparities in PHC performance persisted among older adults in the three Nordic capital areas, geographic disparities narrowed in both Helsinki and Stockholm but persisted in Copenhagen. Our findings suggest that the Danish PHC incorporated the negative effects of socio-economic segregation to a lesser degree.

Capturing Concerns about Patient Deterioration in Narrative Documentation in Home Healthcare

Home healthcare (HHC) agencies provide care to more than 3.4 million adults per year. There is value in studying HHC narrative notes to identify patients at risk for deterioration. This study aimed to build machine learning algorithms to identify "concerning" narrative notes of HHC patients and identify emerging themes. Six algorithms were applied to narrative notes (n = 4,000) from a HHC agency to classify notes as either "concerning" or "not concerning." Topic modeling using Latent Dirichlet Allocation bag of words was conducted to identify emerging themes from the concerning notes. Gradient Boosted Trees demonstrated the best performance with a F-score = 0.74 and AUC = 0.96. Emerging themes were related to patient-clinician communication, HHC services provided, gait challenges, mobility concerns, wounds, and caregivers. Most themes have been cited by previous literature as increasing risk for adverse events. In the future, such algorithms can support early identification of patients at risk for deterioration.

Hospital admission decisions for older Veterans with community-onset pneumonia: An analysis of 118 U.S. Veterans Affairs Medical Centers

OBJECTIVES

Age is important for prognosis in community-onset pneumonia, but how it influences admission decisions in the emergency department (ED) is not well characterized. Using clinical data from the electronic health record in a national cohort, we examined pneumonia hospitalization patterns, variation, and relationships with mortality among older versus younger Veterans.

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort of patients ≥ 18 years presenting to EDs with a diagnosis of pneumonia at 118 VA Medical Centers January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2016, we compared observed, predicted, and residual hospitalization risk for Veterans < 70, 70-79, and ≥ 80 years of age using generalized estimating equations and machine learning models with 71 patient factors. We examined facility variation in residual hospitalization across facilities and explored whether facility differences in hospitalization risk correlated with differences in 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Among 297,498 encounters, 165,003 (55%) were for Veterans < 70 years, 61,076 (21%) 70-80, and 71,419 (24%) ≥ 80. Hospitalization rates were 52%, 67%, and 76%, respectively. After other patient factors were adjusting for, age 70-79 had an odds ratio (OR) of 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-1.44) and ≥ 80 had an OR of 2.1 (95% CI 2.0-2.2) compared to age < 70. There was substantial variation in hospitalization across facilities among Veterans < 70 (<35% hospitalization at the lowest decile of facilities vs. > 66% at the highest decile) that was similar but with higher risk for patients 70-79 years (54% vs. 82%) and ≥ 80 years (59% vs. 85%) and remained after accounting for patient factors, with no consistently positive or negative associations with facility-level 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Older Veterans with community-onset pneumonia experience high risk of hospitalization, with widespread facility variation that has no clear relationship to short-term mortality.

Machine learning applied to electronic health record data in home healthcare: A scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Despite recent calls for home healthcare (HHC) to integrate informatics, the application of machine learning in HHC is relatively unknown. Thus, this study aimed to synthesize and appraise the literature describing the application of machine learning to predict adverse outcomes (e.g., hospitalization, mortality) using electronic health record (EHR) data in the HHC setting. Our secondary aim was to evaluate the comprehensiveness of predictors used in the machine learning algorithms guided by the Biopsychosocial Model.

METHODS

During March 2022 we conducted a literature search in four databases: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Scopus. Inclusion criteria were 1) describing services provided in the HHC setting, 2) applying machine learning algorithms to predict adverse outcomes, defined as outcomes related to patient deterioration, 3) using EHR data and 4) focusing on the adult population. Predictors were mapped to the Biopsychosocial Model. A risk of bias analysis was conducted using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

The final sample included 20 studies. Eighteen studies used predictors from standardized assessments integrated in the EHR. The most common outcome of interest was hospitalization (55%), followed by mortality (25%). Psychological predictors were frequently excluded (35%). Tree based algorithms were most frequently applied (75%). Most studies demonstrated high or unclear risk of bias (75%).

CONCLUSION

Future studies in HHC should consider incorporating machine learning algorithms into clinical decision support systems to identify patients at risk. Based on the Biopsychosocial model, psychological and interpersonal characteristics should be used along with biological characteristics to enhance risk prediction. To facilitate the widespread adoption of machine learning, stakeholders should encourage standardization in the HHC setting.

Ethical issues with geographical variations in the provision of health care services

Geographical variations are documented for a wide range of health care services. As many such variations cannot be explained by demographical or epidemiological differences, they are problematic with respect to distributive justice, quality of care, and health policy. Despite much attention, geographical variations prevail. One reason for this can be that the ethical issues of geographical variations are rarely addressed explicitly. Accordingly, the objective of this article is to analyse the ethical aspects of geographical variations in the provision of health services. Applying a principlist approach the article identifies and addresses four specific ethical issues: injustice, harm, lack of beneficence, and paternalism. Then it investigates the normative leap from the description of geographical variations to the prescription of right care. Lastly, the article argues that professional approaches such as developing guidelines, checklists, appropriateness criteria, and standards of care are important measures when addressing geographical variations, but that such efforts should be accompanied and supported by ethical analysis. Hence, geographical variations are not only a healthcare provision, management, or a policy making problem, but an ethical one. Addressing the ethical issues with geographical variations is key for handling this crucial problem in the provision of health services.

Trends in Illness Severity, Hospitalization, and Mortality for Community-Onset Pneumonia at 118 US Veterans Affairs Medical Centers

BACKGROUND

Deaths from pneumonia were decreasing globally prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is unclear whether this was due to changes in patient populations, illness severity, diagnosis, hospitalization thresholds, or treatment. Using clinical data from the electronic health record among a national cohort of patients initially diagnosed with pneumonia, we examined temporal trends in severity of illness, hospitalization, and short- and long-term deaths.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort PARTICIPANTS: All patients >18 years presenting to emergency departments (EDs) at 118 VA Medical Centers between 1/1/2006 and 12/31/2016 with an initial clinical diagnosis of pneumonia and confirmed by chest imaging report.

EXPOSURES

Year of encounter.

MAIN MEASURES

Hospitalization and 30-day and 90-day mortality. Illness severity was defined as the probability of each outcome predicted by machine learning predictive models using age, sex, comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory data from encounters during years 2006-2007, and similar models trained on encounters from years 2015 to 2016. We estimated the changes in hospitalizations and 30-day and 90-day mortality between the first and the last 2 years of the study period accounted for by illness severity using time covariate decompositions with model estimates.

RESULTS

Among 196,899 encounters across the study period, hospitalization decreased from 71 to 63%, 30-day mortality 10 to 7%, 90-day mortality 16 to 12%, and 1-year mortality 29 to 24%. Comorbidity risk increased, but illness severity decreased. Decreases in illness severity accounted for 21-31% of the decrease in hospitalizations, and 45-47%, 32-24%, and 17-19% of the decrease in 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality. Findings were similar among underrepresented patients and those with only hospital discharge diagnosis codes.

CONCLUSIONS

Outcomes for community-onset pneumonia have improved across the VA healthcare system after accounting for illness severity, despite an increase in cases and comorbidity burden.

Expansion of primary healthcare and emergency hospital admissions among the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil: A cohort analysis

Background

Robust evidence on the relationship between primary care and emergency admissions is lacking in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates how the phased roll out of the family health strategy (FHS) to the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil affected emergency hospital admissions and readmissions from ambulatory-care sensitives conditions (ACSCs).

Methods

A cohort of 1.2 million adults in Rio de Janeiro city were followed for five years (Jan 2012 to Dec 2016). The association between FHS use and the likelihood of emergency hospital admissions and 30-day readmissions were evaluated using multi-level Poisson regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA) for socioeconomic and household characteristics. Inequalities in associations were examined across groups of causes and by key socioeconomic groups.

Results

Records from 2,551,934 primary care consultations and 15,627 admissions were analysed. In IPTW-RA analyses, each additional FHS consultation was associated with a 3% lower rate of ACSC admission (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.98), a 63% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from any non-birth cause (RR: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.46), and an 57% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from ACSCs (RR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.33, 0.55). Individuals who were older, had the lowest educational attainment, were unemployed, and had higher incomes had larger reductions in ACSC admissions associated with FHS use.

Interpretation

Investment in primary care is important for reducing emergency hospital admissions and their associated costs in LMICs.

Funding

DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Outpatient care fragmentation in Veterans Affairs patients at high-risk for hospitalization

OBJECTIVE

To examine outpatient care fragmentation and its association with future hospitalization among patients at high risk for hospitalization.

DATA SOURCES

Veterans Affairs (VA) and Medicare data.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a longitudinal study, using logistic regression to examine how outpatient care fragmentation in FY14 (as measured by number of unique providers, Breslau's Usual Provider of Care (UPC), Bice-Boxerman's Continuity of Care Index (COCI), and Modified Modified Continuity Index (MMCI)) was associated with all-cause hospitalizations and hospitalizations related to ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) in FY15. We also examined how fragmentation varied by patient's age, gender, race, ethnicity, marital status, rural status, history of homelessness, number of chronic conditions, Medicare utilization, and mental health care utilization.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

We extracted data for 130,704 VA patients ≥65 years old with a hospitalization risk ≥90th percentile and ≥ four outpatient visits in the baseline year.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The mean (SD) of FY14 outpatient visits was 13.2 (8.6). Fragmented care (more providers, less care with a usual provider, more dispersed care based on COCI) was more common among patients with more chronic conditions and those receiving mental health care. In adjusted models, most fragmentation measures were not associated with all-cause hospitalization, and patients with low levels of fragmentation (more concentrated care based on UPC, COCI, and MMCI) had a higher likelihood of an ACSC-related hospitalization (AOR, 95% CI = 1.21 (1.09-1.35), 1.27 (1.14-1.42), and 1.28 (1.18-1.40), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to expectations, outpatient care fragmentation was not associated with elevated all-cause hospitalization rates among VA patients in the top 10th percentile for risk of admission; in fact, fragmented care was linked to lower rates of hospitalization for ACSCs. In integrated settings such as the VA, multiple providers, and dispersed care might offer access to timely or specialized care that offsets risks of fragmentation, particularly for conditions that are sensitive to ambulatory care.

UNPLANNED REPRESENTATION TO HOSPITAL BY PATIENTS WITH DIABETES: DEVELOPMENT AND PILOT FEASIBILITY TESTING OF A SCREENING TOOL

BackgroundUnplanned representation of patients with diabetes recently discharged from emergency department or in-patient hospitals is a common but complex problem worldwide. This study set out to examine the feasibility of a risk screening interview and whether component characteristics may be associated with unplanned representation of patients with diabetes to a tertiary metropolitan hospital.MethodsA screening interview comprised of demographic, social and clinical characteristics was developed and piloted using prospective cross-sectional survey design. A convenience sample of 55 patients was recruited and screened. Outcomes were the occurrence of unplanned representation to hospital within 28 or 90 days of hospital discharge from the index presentation.ResultsThe screening interview was shown to be broadly feasible and acceptable for use by staff and patients, with identified areas for modification. Seventeen participants (30.9%) experienced unplanned representation within 90 days of hospital discharge; for 13 participants (23.6%) this occurred within 28 days. Characteristics linked with unplanned representation to hospital were identified.ConclusionsPreliminary data indicated the feasibility of tool use and informed refinement for future testing of the ability of the screening interview to predict those patients with diabetes at high risk of unplanned representation to hospital to enhance effective care planning.

Geographic Disparities in Readmissions for Peripheral Artery Disease in South Carolina

Readmissions constitute a major health care burden among peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients. This study aimed to 1) estimate the zip code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level prevalence of readmission among PAD patients and characterize the effect of covariates on readmissions; and (2) identify hotspots of PAD based on estimated prevalence of readmission. Thirty-day readmissions among PAD patients were identified from the South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office All Payers Database (2010-2018). Bayesian spatial hierarchical modeling was conducted to identify areas of high risk, while controlling for confounders. We mapped the estimated readmission rates and identified hotspots using local Getis Ord (G*) statistics. Of the 232,731 individuals admitted to a hospital or outpatient surgery facility with PAD diagnosis, 30,366 (13.1%) experienced an unplanned readmission to a hospital within 30 days. Fitted readmission rates ranged from 35.3 per 1000 patients to 370.7 per 1000 patients and the risk of having a readmission was significantly associated with the percentage of patients who are 65 and older (0.992, 95%CI: 0.985-0.999), have Medicare insurance (1.013, 1.005-1.020), and have hypertension (1.014, 1.005-1.023). Geographic analysis found significant variation in readmission rates across the state and identified priority areas for targeted interventions to reduce readmissions.

A mixed-methods evaluation of home-based primary care in dementia within an integrated system

BACKGROUND

No prior studies have examined the effects of home-based primary care (HBPC) in persons living with dementia (PLWD), within an ecosystem of serious illness care in an integrated healthcare system. Our objectives were to compare the characteristics of PLWD receiving HBPC and their hospital utilization and end-of-life care, with those of a matched comparison group, and to understand the experiences of family caregivers of PLWD receiving HBPC.

METHODS

This mixed-methods study used a retrospective observational cohort design with PLWD receiving HBPC (n = 287) from 2015 to 2020 and a strata-matched comparison group (n = 861), and qualitative phone interviews with 16 HBPC family caregivers in 2020. Inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score-adjusted models were used to compare time-to-first hospital-based utilization and, for decedents, home palliative and hospice care and place of death. Care experience was captured through caregiver interviews.

RESULTS

Patients receiving HBPC had a similar risk of hospital utilization [adjusted hazard ratio, 1.06 (95% CI: 0.89-1.26), p = 0.51] as a matched non-HBPC comparison group after a median follow-up of 199 days. However, HBPC decedents (n = 159) were more likely to receive home palliative care or hospice [rate ratio, RR: 1.23 (95% CI: 1.07-1.42), p < 0.01] and to die at home [RR: 1.66 (95% CI: 1.35-2.05), p < 0.001] than were non-HBPC decedents (n = 423). Caregivers reported that HBPC provided coordinated, continuous, and convenient care that was aligned with families' priorities and goals; however, some expressed unmet needs, especially for help paying for personal care and medical supplies/equipment, and a desire for clearer communication about program operations and more quality oversight for contract services.

CONCLUSIONS

Although HBPC for PLWD was associated with a similar risk of hospital utilization compared to a matched non-HBPC comparison group, HBPC resulted in more patient-centered end-of-life care for decedents. Prospective studies of HBPC that further elicit and address unmet needs are warranted.

Predicting Future Geographic Hotspots of Potentially Preventable Hospitalisations Using All Subset Model Selection and Repeated K-Fold Cross-Validation

Long-term future prediction of geographic areas with high rates of potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPHs) among residents, or "hotspots", is critical to ensure the effective location of place-based health service interventions. This is because such interventions are typically expensive and take time to develop, implement, and take effect, and hotspots often regress to the mean. Using spatially aggregated, longitudinal administrative health data, we introduce a method to make such predictions. The proposed method combines all subset model selection with a novel formulation of repeated k-fold cross-validation in developing optimal models. We illustrate its application predicting three-year future hotspots for four PPHs in an Australian context: type II diabetes mellitus, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and "high risk foot". In these examples, optimal models are selected through maximising positive predictive value while maintaining sensitivity above a user-specified minimum threshold. We compare the model's performance to that of two alternative methods commonly used in practice, i.e., prediction of future hotspots based on either: (i) current hotspots, or (ii) past persistent hotspots. In doing so, we demonstrate favourable performance of our method, including with respect to its ability to flexibly optimise various different metrics. Accordingly, we suggest that our method might effectively be used to assist health planners predict excess future demand of health services and prioritise placement of interventions. Furthermore, it could be used to predict future hotspots of non-health events, e.g., in criminology.

Predicting Individual Risk of Emergency Hospital Admissions - A Retrospective Validation Study

Purpose

A high number of hospital admissions may indicate poor general health and less than optimal health care across sectors. To prevent hospital admissions, previous studies have focused on predicting readmissions relating to a defined index admission and specific condition, whereas generic models suited for community-dwelling persons are lacking. The aim of this study was to validate a generic model that predicted risk of emergency hospital admission within the following three months and to investigate regional variation.

Materials and Methods

This study is an observational register-based validation study of a prediction model. The prediction model was based on a population of frail elderly, persons with non-communicable diseases, and persons with three emergency hospital admissions using information about diagnoses and hospital contacts. The prediction model consisted of two stages. In the first stage, covariate associations to admissions are estimated from observed data in one year. In the second stage, admissions are predicted in the coming three months based on observed estimations from the first stage. The validity of the model was calculated by comparing predicted and observed admissions from August 1st to October 31st, 2016.

Results

The study included 112,026 persons. In nationwide data, area under the curve (AUC) was 0.7742 (95% CI 0.7698–0.7786), and the positive predictive value was 52% for the 99th percentile (the top 1%). AUC varied between regions from 0.6914 in Southern Denmark (95% CI 0.6779–0.7049) to 0.8224 (95% CI 0.8064–0.8384) in North Denmark. AUC was higher with nationwide data compared to regional.

Conclusion

The model performed satisfactorily in predicting individual risk of emergency hospital admission.

Assessing the impact of the 2008 health reform in Ecuador on the performance of primary health care services: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2008, Ecuador started a national health reform based on the principles of Alma Ata to achieve Universal Health Coverage. While coverage indicators have increased, a systematic assessment of the impact of the reform on the delivery of health services at primary level is lacking. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the 2008 health reform on the performance of primary health care services in Ecuador.

METHODS

Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSC) are a subset of diseases where hospital admission is potentially avoidable by high quality well-functioning primary care. Thus, observing the behaviour of ACSC hospitalizations can serve as an indicator of how the primary health care level is performing. Crude and adjusted rates, stratified by sex, were calculated from ten selected ACSC hospitalization discharges during 22 years of data representing 11 years before and after the health reform. An interrupted time series analysis was then conducted by applying a negative binomial regression and adjusting for overdispersion and autocorrelation.

RESULTS

Overall higher crude and adjusted rates for ACSC hospitalizations were observed in women compared to men; both increased gradually since the start of the observation, reaching a peak around 2010, and then started a downwards trend. In men, the incidence rate ratio increased significantly by 3 % per year during the period before the intervention. During the first year after intervention, an increase (13 %) was detected, and then a statistically significant 1 % decrease (IRR = 0.99; 95 % CI: 0.98, 0.99) was observed in the ACSC rate ratio per year in the period after the intervention. Similar trends and effect sizes were found for women.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed significant decreasing trends of the ACSC hospitalization rates in both sexes, indicating an improvement of the performance of the primary health care services following the 2008 national health reform. A continuous strengthening of the primary care model as well as a regular monitoring of ACSC hospitalization rates in the country is recommended. A health economic evaluation considering hospitalizations avoided and associated costs is also advisable.

Reducing inequality in avoidable emergency admissions: Case studies of local health care systems in England using a realist approach

OBJECTIVE

People in disadvantaged areas are more likely to have an avoidable emergency hospital admission. Socio-economic inequality in avoidable emergency hospital admissions is monitored in England. Our aim was to inform local health care purchasing and planning by identifying recent health care system changes (or other factors), as reported by local health system leaders, that might explain narrowing or widening trends.

METHODS

Case studies were undertaken in one pilot and at five geographically distinct local health care systems (Clinical Commissioning Groups, CCGs), identified as having consistently increasing or decreasing inequality. Local settings were explored through discussions with CCG officials and stakeholders to identify potential local determinants. Data were analysed using a realist evaluation approach to generate context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configurations.

RESULTS

Of the five geographically distinct CCGs, two had narrowing inequality, two widening, and one narrowing inequality, which widened during the project. None of the CCGs had designed a large-scale package of service changes with the explicit aim of reducing socio-economic inequality in avoidable emergency admissions, and local decision makers were unfamiliar with their own trends. Potential primary and community care determinants included: workforce, case finding and exclusion, proactive care co-ordination for patients with complex needs, and access and quality. Potential commissioning determinants included: data use and incentives, and targeting of services. Other potential determinants included changes in care home services, national A&E targets, and wider issues - such as public services financial constraints, residential gentrification, and health care expectations.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find any bespoke initiatives that explained the inequality trends. The trends were more likely due to an interplay of multiple health care and wider system factors. Local decision makers need greater awareness, understanding and support to interpret, use and act upon inequality indicators. They are unlikely to find simple, cheap interventions to reduce inequalities in avoidable emergency admissions. Rather, long-term multifaceted interventions are required that embed inequality considerations into mainstream decision making.

A systematic review of controlled studies of suicidal and self-harming behaviours in adolescents following bereavement by suicide

BACKGROUND

Research suggests that being exposed to the suicide of others increases risk of subsequent suicidal or self-harming thoughts or behaviours. What is less clear is whether this applies to adolescents, and if the risk exceeds that following other causes of death, which has implications on suicide prevention approaches. This study aimed to systematically review the evidence on adolescent bereavement experiences by different causes to address this gap.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search using four databases (MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Web of Science, and Embase) identified 21 studies which measured suicidal or self-harm outcomes among bereaved adolescents aged between 12 to 18 years old. The literature was screened, data was extracted using pre-piloted forms, and risk of bias was assessed using versions of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale; a proportion of papers were double extracted and assessed for bias. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42016051125).

RESULTS

A narrative synthesis of the literature demonstrated divergent findings depending on the outcome being measured. Suicide bereavement appears to be strongly associated with suicide mortality among parentally bereaved youth, while self-harm or non-fatal suicide attempts (either presenting to hospital or self-reported) showed mixed evidence. Suicidal ideation was not uniquely associated with suicide bereavement. An exploration of circumstances surrounding the death, characteristics of the person who died, and characteristics of the young person across each outcome measure suggested that earlier experiences of loss, shorter timeframes following the death, and maternal death are associated with particularly elevated risk of suicidal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that suicide loss is associated with subsequent suicide, and may be associated with non-fatal self-harm. A detailed account of the risk and protective factors surrounding suicide bereavement among young people is crucial to understand the pathways through which suicidal behaviours develop. Researchers, policy makers and practitioners with an interest in suicide prevention will benefit from clarity around the needs of young bereaved individuals.

Effect of Monoclonal Antibody Treatment on Clinical Outcomes in Ambulatory Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019

We compared rates of emergency department visits or hospitalizations among ambulatory coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients treated with monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapy (n = 305) vs untreated patients (n = 6354). Treatment was associated with decreased encounters within 30 days (adjusted odds ratio, 0.23 [95% confidence interval, .15-.36]). Our findings support treatment of acute COVID-19 with mAbs.

Measuring the impact of an acute visiting scheme on emergency department attendances - a pre-post cohort design

BACKGROUND

Emergency department (ED) attendances are contributing to rising costs of the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Critically assessing the impact of new services to reduce emergency department use can be difficult as new services may create additional access points, unlocking latent demand. The study evaluated an Acute Visiting Scheme (AVS) in a primary care context. We asked if AVS reduces overall ED demand and whether or not it changed utilisation patterns for frequent attenders.

METHOD

The study used a pre post single cohort design. The impact of AVS on all-cause ED attendances was hypothesised as a substitution effect, where AVS duty doctor visits would replace emergency department visits. Primary outcome was frequency of ED attendances. End points were reduction of frequency of service use and increase of intervals between attendances by frequent attenders.

RESULTS

ED attendances for AVS users rose by 47.6%. If AVS use was included, there was a more than fourfold increase of total service utilisation, amounting to 438.3%. It shows that AVS unlocked significant latent demand. However, there was some reduction in the frequency of ED attendances for some patients and an increase in time intervals between ED attendances for others.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates that careful analysis of patient utilisation can detect a differential impact of AVS on the use of ED. As the new service created additional access points for patients and hence introduces an element of choice, the new service is likely to unlock latent demand. This study illustrates that AVS may be most useful if targeted at specific patient groups who are most likely to benefit from the new service.

Geographical variation of emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in older adults in Ireland 2012-2016

OBJECTIVE

Ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions are those for which intensified primary care management could potentially prevent emergency admissions. This study aimed to quantify geographical variation in emergency admissions with ACS conditions in older adults and explore factors influencing variation.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional study.

SETTING

34 public hospitals in the Ireland.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥65 years hospitalised for seven ACS conditions between 2012 and 2016 (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes, angina, pyelonephritis/urinary tract infections (UTIs), dehydration and pneumonia).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Age and sex standardised emergency admission rates (SARs) per 1000 older adults.

ANALYSIS

Age and sex SARs were calculated for 21 geographical areas. Extremal quotients and systematic components of variance (SCV) quantified variation. Spatial regression analyses was conducted for SARs with unemployment, urban population proportion, hospital turnover, supply of general practitioners (GPs), and supply of hospital-based specialists as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Over time, an increase in UTI/pyelonephritis SARs was seen while SARs for angina and CHF decreased. Geographic variation was moderate overall and high for dehydration and angina (SCV=11.7-50.0). For all conditions combined, multivariable analysis showed lower urban population (adjusted coefficient: -2.2 (-3.4 to -0.9, p<0.01)), lower GP supply (adjusted coefficient: -5.5 (-8.2 to -2.9, p<0.01)) and higher geriatrician supply (adjusted coefficient: 3.7 (0.5 to 6.9, p=0.02)) were associated with higher SARs.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should evaluate methods of preventing admissions for ACS conditions among older adults, including how resources are allocated at a local level.

An integrated knowledge translation approach to address avoidable rehospitalisations and unplanned admissions for older people in South Australia: implementation and evaluation program plan

Background

Repeated admission to hospital can be stressful for older people and their families and puts additional pressure on the health care system. While there is some evidence about strategies to better integrate care, improve older patients’ experiences at transitions of care, and reduce preventable hospital readmissions, implementing these strategies at scale is challenging. This program of research comprises multiple, complementary research activities with an overall goal of improving the care for older people after discharge from hospital. The program leverages existing large datasets and an established collaborative network of clinicians, consumers, academics, and aged care providers.

Methods

The program of research will take place in South Australia focusing on people aged 65 and over. Three inter-linked research activities will be the following: (1) analyse existing registry data to profile individuals at high risk of emergency department encounters and hospital admissions; (2) evaluate the cost-effectiveness of existing ‘out-of-hospital’ programs provided within the state; and (3) implement a state-wide quality improvement collaborative to tackle key interventions likely to improve older people’s care at points of transitions. The research is underpinned by an integrated approach to knowledge translation, actively engaging a broad range of stakeholders to optimise the relevance and sustainability of the changes that are introduced.

Discussion

This project highlights the uniqueness and potential value of bringing together key stakeholders and using a multi-faceted approach (risk profiling; evaluation framework; implementation and evaluation) for improving health services. The program aims to develop a practical and scalable solution to a challenging health service problem for frail older people and service providers.

Risk Factors of Readmissions in Geriatric Rehabilitation Patients: RESORT

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk factors associated with 30- and 90-day hospital readmissions in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients.

DESIGN

Observational, prospective longitudinal inception cohort.

SETTING

Tertiary hospital in Victoria, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Geriatric rehabilitation inpatients of the REStORing Health of Acutely Unwell AdulTs (RESORT) cohort evalutated by a comprehensive geriatric assessment including potential readmission risk factors (ie, demographic, social support, lifestyle, functional performance, quality of life, morbidity, length of stay in an acute ward). Of 693 inpatients, 11 died during geriatric rehabilitation. The mean age of the remaining 682 inpatients was 82.2±7.8 years, and 56.7% were women.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Thirty- and 90-day readmissions after discharge from geriatric inpatient rehabilitation.

RESULTS

The 30- and 90-day unplanned all-cause readmission rates were 11.6% and 25.2%, respectively. Risk factors for 30- and 90-day readmissions were as follows: did not receive tertiary education, lower quality of life, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) scores, and a higher number of medications used in the univariable models. Formal care was associated with increased risk for 90-day readmissions. In multivariable models, CIRS score was a significant risk factor for 30-day readmissions, whereas high fear of falling and CIRS score were significant risk factors for 90-day readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

High fear of falling and CIRS score were independent risk factors for readmission in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients. These variables should be included in hospital readmission risk prediction model developments for geriatric rehabilitation inpatients.

Home Healthcare Clinical Notes Predict Patient Hospitalization and Emergency Department Visits

BACKGROUND

About 30% of home healthcare patients are hospitalized or visit an emergency department (ED) during a home healthcare (HHC) episode. Novel data science methods are increasingly used to improve identification of patients at risk for negative outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to identify patients at heightened risk hospitalization or ED visits using HHC narrative data (clinical notes).

METHODS

This study used a large database of HHC visit notes (n = 727,676) documented for 112,237 HHC episodes (89,459 unique patients) by clinicians of the largest nonprofit HHC agency in the United States. Text mining and machine learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, decision tree, random forest) were implemented to predict patient hospitalization or ED visits using the content of clinical notes. Risk factors associated with hospitalization or ED visits were identified using a feature selection technique (gain ratio attribute evaluation).

RESULTS

Best performing text mining method (random forest) achieved good predictive performance. Seven risk factors categories were identified, with clinical factors, coordination/communication, and service use being the most frequent categories.

DISCUSSION

This study was the first to explore the potential contribution of HHC clinical notes to identifying patients at risk for hospitalization or an ED visit. Our results suggest that HHC visit notes are highly informative and can contribute significantly to identification of patients at risk. Further studies are needed to explore ways to improve risk prediction by adding more data elements from additional data sources.

Individual and Area-level Factors Contributing to the Geographic Variation in Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions in Finland: A Register-based Study

BACKGROUND

Measuring primary health care (PHC) performance through hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) remains controversial-recent cross-sectional research claims that its geographic variation associates more with individual socioeconomic position (SEP) and health status than PHC supply.

OBJECTIVES

To clarify the usage of ACSCs as a PHC performance indicator by quantifying how disease burden, both PHC and hospital supply and spatial access contribute over time to geographic variation in Finland when individual SEP and comorbidities were adjusted for.

METHODS

The Finnish Care Register for Health Care provided hospitalizations for ACSCs (divided further into subgroups of acute, chronic, and vaccine-preventable causes) in 2011-2017. With 3-level nested multilevel Poisson models-individuals, PHC authorities, and hospital authorities-we estimated the proportion of the variance in ACSCs explained by selected factors at 3 time periods.

RESULTS

In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analysis of total ACSCs the variances between hospital authorities was nearly twice that between PHC authorities. Individual SEP and comorbidities explained 19%-30% of the variance between PHC authorities and 25%-36% between hospital authorities; and area-level disease burden and arrangement and usage of hospital care a further 14%-16% and 32%-33%-evening out the unexplained variances between PHC and hospital authorities.

CONCLUSIONS

Alongside individual factors, areas' disease burden and factors related to hospital care explained the excess variances in ACSCs captured by hospital authorities. Our consistent findings over time suggest that the local strain on health care and the regional arrangement of hospital services affect ACSCs-necessitating caution when comparing areas' PHC performance through ACSCs.

Improving early detection of infection in nursing home residents in South Africa

This paper sets out key challenges related to detection and management of infection in nursing home residents, and then explores the situation in South Africa, and use of decision support tools as a mechanism to improve this area of practice. In line with global trends, concerns have been raised about the rapidly increasing aging population in South Africa and the ability of the current healthcare system to keep pace with patient demand, particularly nursing home residents. Nursing home residents, who often exhibit atypical signs and symptoms, are at increased risk of infection and unplanned admissions, which account for 65% of all bed days, and cost the US healthcare economy more than a trillion dollars a year. Evidence suggests that the current workforce in South Africa receive limited training in this area and are largely unprepared to meet the demands of the aging population. Building the capacity and skills of the workforce in South Africa is one approach that could help to improve the early detection of infection and assist the nursing home workforce to provide more effective and timely care, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Decision support tools, such as the Early Detection of Infection Scale, can help ensure consistency and ensure more timely treatment, minimising unplanned admissions and healthcare expenditure. However, the potential benefits or indeed how easily this could be integrated in to nursing homes in South Africa is unknown. An important first step, as in other parts of the world, is therefore to explore views and opinions of how infections are detected and managed in practice by nurses, care workers and managers in nursing homes.

[The impact of primary healthcare and the reduction of primary health care-sensitive hospital admissions]

This study aimed to analyze the association between quality of primary healthcare (PHC) in Brazilian municipalities (counties) and the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions. This was an ecological study with analysis of nationwide secondary data. The quality of the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions was based on assessment of the National Program for Improvement of Access and Quality of Basic Care (PMAQ-AB). The analysis used a hierarchical explanatory model, with the number of the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions hospitalizations in the year 2014 as the dependent variable and sociodemographic and health system data as the independent variables. The measure of association between the number of hospitalizations and quality of PHC was calculated with negative binomial regression with robust variance and the total population as offset, with significance set at 20% in the univariate analysis and 5% in the multivariate analysis. The mean number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions admissions during the target period was 359.97 hospitalizations per municipality. The quality of PHC showed a negative association with the number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions admissions. Municipalities with lower quality of PHC (quartile 1) showed 21.2% more number of hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions admissions than municipalities with higher quality (95%CI: 1.09-1.34). The results showed that quality of PHC in Brazil reduced hospitalizations due to primary healthcare-sensitive conditions, even in contexts of social vulnerability.

Study of potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) for chronic conditions: what proportion are preventable and what factors are associated with preventable PPH?

INTRODUCTION

The proportion of potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) which are actually preventable is unknown, and little is understood about the factors associated with individual preventable PPH. The Diagnosing Potentially Preventable Hospitalisations (DaPPHne) Study aimed to determine the proportion of PPH for chronic conditions which are preventable and identify factors associated with chronic PPH classified as preventable.

SETTING

Three hospitals in NSW, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling patients with unplanned hospital admissions between November 2014 and June 2017 for congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes complications or angina pectoris. Data were collected from patients, their general practitioners (GPs) and hospital records.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Assessments of the preventability of each admission by an Expert Panel.

RESULTS

323 admissions were assessed for preventability: 46% (148/323) were assessed as preventable, 30% (98/323) as not preventable and 24% (77/323) as unclassifiable. Statistically significant differences in proportions preventable were found between the three study sites (29%; 47%; 58%; p≤0.001) and by primary discharge diagnosis (p≤0.001).Significant predictors of an admission being classified as preventable were: study site; final principal diagnosis of CHF; fewer diagnoses on discharge; shorter hospital stay; GP diagnosis of COPD; GP consultation in the last 12 months; not having had a doctor help make the decision to go to hospital; not arriving by ambulance; patient living alone; having someone help with medications and requiring help with daily tasks.

CONCLUSIONS

That less than half the chronic PPH were assessed as preventable, and the range of factors associated with preventability, including site and discharge diagnosis, are important considerations in the validity of PPH as an indicator. Opportunities for interventions to reduce chronic PPH include targeting patients with CHF and COPD, and the provision of social welfare and support services for patients living alone and those requiring help with daily tasks and medication management.

Comparison and Impact of Four Different Methodologies for Identification of Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions

Ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are conditions for which hospitalizations are thought to be avoidable if effective and accessible primary health care is available. However, to define which conditions are considered ACSCs, there is a considerable number of different lists. Our aim was to compare the impact of using different ACSC lists considering mainland Portugal hospitalizations. A retrospective study with inpatient data from Portuguese public hospital discharges between 2011 and 2015 was conducted. Four ACSC list sources were considered: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), the Victorian Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions study, and Sarmento et al. Age-sex-adjusted rates of ACSCs were calculated by district (hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants). Spearman's rho, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), the information-based measure of disagreement (IBMD), and Bland and Altman plots were computed. Results showed that by applying the four lists, different age-sex-adjusted rates are obtained. However, the lists that seemed to demonstrate greater agreement and consistency were the list proposed by Sarmento et al. compared to AHRQ and the AHRQ method compared to the Victorian list. It is important to state that we should compare comparable indicators and ACSC lists cannot be used interchangeably.

GP- and practice-related variation in ambulatory sensitive hospitalisations of older primary care patients

Background

Reducing ambulatory sensitive hospitalisations (ASHs) is a strategy to control spending on hospital care and to improve quality of primary health care. This research investigated whether ASH rates in older people varied by GP and practice characteristics.

Methods

We identified ASHs from the national dataset of hospital events for 3755 community-dwelling participants aged 75+ enrolled in a cluster randomised controlled trial involving 60 randomly selected general practices in three regions in New Zealand. Poisson mixed models of 36-month ASH rates were fitted for the entire sample, for complex participants, and non-complex participants. We examined variation in ASH rates according to GP- and practice-level characteristics after adjusting for patient-level predictors of ASH.

Results

Lower rates of ASHs were observed in female GPs (IRR 0.83, CI 0.71 to 0.98). In non-complex participants, but not complex participants, practices in more deprived areas had lower ASH rates (4% lower per deprivation decile higher, IRR 0.96, CI 0.92 to 1.00), whereas main urban centre practices had higher rates (IRR 1.84, CI 1.15 to 2.96). Variance explained by these significant factors was small (0.4% of total variance for GP sex, 0.2% for deprivation, and 0.5% for area type). None of the modifiable practice-level characteristics such as home visiting and systematically contacting patients were significantly associated with ASH rates.

Conclusions

Only a few GP and non-modifiable practice characteristics were associated with variation in ASH rates in 60 New Zealand practices interested in a trial about care of older people. Where there were significant associations, the contribution to overall variance was minimal. It also remains unclear whether lower ASH rates in older people represents underservicing or less overuse of hospital services, particularly for the relatively well patient attending practices in less central, more disadvantaged communities. Thus, reducing ASHs through primary care redesign for older people should be approached carefully.

Trial registration

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register ACTRN12609000648224.

Validity of a tool designed to assess the preventability of potentially preventable hospitalizations for chronic conditions

BACKGROUND

Potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) are defined as unplanned hospital admissions which could potentially have been prevented with the provision of effective, timely outpatient care. To better understand and ultimately reduce rates of PPH, a means of identifying those which are actually preventable is required. The Preventability Assessment Tool (PAT) was designed for use by hospital clinicians to assess the preventability of unplanned admissions for chronic conditions.

OBJECTIVE

The present study examined the ability of the PAT to distinguish between those unplanned admissions which are preventable and those which are not, compared to the assessments of an Expert Panel.

METHODS

Data were collected between November 2014 and June 2017 at three hospitals in NSW, Australia. Participants were community-dwelling patients with unplanned hospital admissions for congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes complications or angina pectoris. A nurse and a doctor caring for the patient made assessments of the preventability of the admission using the PAT. Expert Panels made assessments of the preventability of each admission based on a comprehensive case report and consensus process.

RESULTS

There was little concordance between the hospital doctors and nurses regarding the preventability of admissions, nor between the assessments of the Expert Panel and the hospital nurse or the Expert Panel and the hospital doctor.

CONCLUSIONS

The PAT demonstrated poor concurrent validity and is not a valid tool for assessing the preventability of unplanned hospital admissions. The use of Expert Panels provides a more rigorous approach to assessing the preventability of such admissions.

Socioeconomic inequalities in hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature, 1990-2018

BACKGROUND

Hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions are an important indicator of health system equity and performance. Chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions refer to chronic diseases that can be managed in primary care settings, including angina, asthma, and diabetes, with hospitalizations for these conditions considered potentially avoidable with adequate primary care interventions. Socioeconomic inequities in the risk of hospitalization have been observed in several health systems globally. While there are multiple studies examining the association between socioeconomic status and hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions, these studies have not been systematically reviewed. The objective of this study is to systematically identify and describe socioeconomic inequalities in hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions amongst adult populations in economically developed countries reported in high-quality observational studies published in the peer-reviewed literature.

METHODS

Peer-reviewed literature was searched in six health and social science databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, ASSIA, and IBSS using search terms for hospitalization, socioeconomic status, and chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions. Study titles and abstracts were first screened followed by full-text review according to the following eligibility criteria: 1) Study outcome is hospitalization for selected chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions; 2) Primary exposure is individual- or area-level socioeconomic status; 3) Study population has a mean age ± 1 SD < 75 years of age; 4) Study setting is economically developed countries; and 5) Study type is observational. Relevant data was then extracted, and studies were critically appraised using appropriate tools from The Joanna Briggs Institute. Results were narratively synthesized according to socioeconomic constructs and type of adjustment (minimally versus fully adjusted).

RESULTS

Of the 15,857 unique peer-reviewed studies identified, 31 studies met the eligibility criteria and were of sufficient quality for inclusion. Socioeconomic constructs and hospitalization outcomes varied across studies. However, despite this heterogeneity, a robust and consistent association between lower levels of socioeconomic status and higher risk of hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review is the first to comprehensively identify and analyze literature on the relationship between SES and hospitalizations for chronic ambulatory care sensitive conditions, considering both aggregate and condition-specific outcomes that are common to several international health systems. The evidence consistently demonstrates that lower socioeconomic status is a risk factor for hospitalization across global settings. Effective health and social interventions are needed to reduce these inequities and ensure fair and adequate care across socioeconomic groups.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42018088727.

The effect of primary care on potentially avoidable hospitalizations in France: a cross-sectional study

Background

Potentially avoidable hospitalizations are an indirect measure of access to primary care. However, the role and quality of primary care might vary by geographical location. The main objective was to assess the impact of primary care on geographic variations of potentially avoidable hospitalizations in Occitanie, France.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of claims and socio-economic data for the French Occitanie region in 2014. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, the region was split into two zones based on socio-economic traits: median pre-tax income and unemployment rate. Age- and sex-adjusted hospital discharge potentially avoidable hospitalization rates were calculated at the ZIP-code level. Demographic, socio-economic, and epidemiological determinants were retrieved, as well as data on supply of, access to and utilization of primary care.

Results

72% of PAH are attributable to two chronic conditions: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure. In Zone 1, the potentially avoidable hospitalization rate was positively associated with premature mortality and with the number of specialist encounters by patients. It was negatively associated with the density of nurses. In Zone 2, the potentially avoidable hospitalization rate was positively associated with premature mortality, with access to general practitioners, and with the number of nurse encounters by patients. It was negatively associated with the proportion of the population having at least one general practitioner encounter and with the density of nurses.

Conclusions

This study suggests that the role of primary care in potentially avoidable hospitalizations might be geography dependent.

Prospectively identifying older adults at risk for potentially avoidable hospitalizations in Korea using population-based data

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model to identify older adults at risk for potentially avoidable hospitalizations (PAHs) using variables readily available in routinely collected health administrative data.

DESIGN

Population-based, retrospective observational study using National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) data.

SETTING

Primary care settings in South Korea.

PARTICIPANTS

The sample includes 113 612 older NHI beneficiaries in the year 2011, among which 2856 had one or more PAHs in 2012.

METHODS

We examined multi-dimensional risk factors of PAHs in the base year and developed and validated prediction models of hospitalization risk using the following year. The predictive power of the developed models was examined with samples generated by the bootstrap method. The performance of the final model was evaluated with further test statistics at different risk thresholds.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Predicting PAHs.

RESULTS

The c-statistic of the final predictive model was 0.784 (CI: 0.769-0.799). The final model including all selected predictors showed the greatest marginal improvement (integrated discrimination improvement of 365%) compared to the base model. The positive predictive value was good.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prediction model based on health administrative data can assist the insurer and practitioners to proactively identify and intervene with older adults at risk for a PAH.

One-year rehospitalisations for congestive heart failure in Portuguese NHS hospitals: a multilevel approach on patterns of use and contributing factors

OBJECTIVES

Identification of rehospitalisations for heart failure and contributing factors flags health policy intervention opportunities designed to deliver care at a most effective and efficient level. Recognising that heart failure is a condition for which timely and appropriate outpatient care can potentially prevent the use of inpatient services, we aimed to determine to what extent comorbidities and material deprivation were predictive of 1 year heart failure specific rehospitalisation.

SETTING

All Portuguese mainland National Health Service (NHS) hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 68 565 hospitalisations for heart failure principal cause of admission, from 2011 to 2015, associated to 45 882 distinct patients aged 18 years old or over.

OUTCOME MEASURES

We defined 1 year specific heart failure rehospitalisation and time to rehospitalisation as outcome measures.

RESULTS

Heart failure principal diagnosis admissions accounted for 1.6% of total hospital NHS budget, and over 40% of this burden is associated to patients rehospitalised at least once in the 365-day follow-up period. 22.1% of the patients hospitalised for a principal diagnosis of heart failure were rehospitalised for the same cause at least once within 365 days after previous discharge. Nearly 55% of rehospitalised patients were readmitted within 3 months. Results suggest a mediation effect between material deprivation and the chance of 1 year rehospitalisation through the effect that material deprivation has on the prevalence of comorbidities. Heart failure combined with chronic kidney disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases by 2.8 and 2.2 times, respectively, the chance of the patient becoming a frequent user of inpatient services for heart failure principal cause of admission.

CONCLUSIONS

One-fifth of patients admitted for heart failure are rehospitalised due to heart failure exacerbation. While the role of material deprivation remained unclear, comorbidities considered increased the chance of 1 year heart failure specific rehospitalisation, in particular, chronic kidney disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Identification of Emergency Care-Sensitive Conditions and Characteristics of Emergency Department Utilization

IMPORTANCE

Monitoring emergency care quality requires understanding which conditions benefit most from timely, quality emergency care.

OBJECTIVES

To identify a set of emergency care-sensitive conditions (ECSCs) that are treated in most emergency departments (EDs), are associated with a spectrum of adult age groups, and represent common reasons for seeking emergency care and to provide benchmark national estimates of ECSC acute care utilization.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A modified Delphi method was used to identify ECSCs. In a cross-sectional analysis, ECSC-associated visits by adults (aged ≥18 years) were identified based on International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes and analyzed with nationally representative data from the 2016 US Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. Data analysis was conducted from January 2018 to December 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Identification of ECSCs and ECSC-associated ED utilization patterns, length of stay, and charges.

RESULTS

An expert panel rated 51 condition groups as emergency care sensitive. Emergency care-sensitive conditions represented 16 033 359 of 114 323 044 ED visits (14.0%) in 2016. On average, 8 535 261 of 17 886 220 ED admissions (47.7%) were attributed to ECSCs. The most common ECSC ED visits were for sepsis (1 716 004 [10.7%]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 273 319 [7.9%]), pneumonia (1 263 971 [7.9%]), asthma (970 829 [6.1%]), and heart failure (911 602 [5.7%]) but varied by age group. Median (interquartile range) length of stay for ECSC ED admissions was longer than non-ECSC ED admissions (3.2 [1.7-5.8] days vs 2.7 [1.4-4.9] days; P < .001). In 2016, median (interquartile range) ED charges per visit for ECSCs were $2736 ($1684-$4605) compared with $2179 ($1118-$4359) per visit for non-ECSC ED visits (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This comprehensive list of ECSCs can be used to guide indicator development for pre-ED, intra-ED, and post-ED care and overall assessment of the adult, non-mental health, acute care system. Health care utilization and costs among patients with ECSCs are substantial and warrant future study of validation, variations in care, and outcomes associated with ECSCs.

Measuring Health Equity for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions in a Large Integrated Health Care System: The Development of an Index

Disparities in outcomes for preventive and primary health care services often result when vulnerable patients rely on episodic encounters for emergency services that do not meet their long-term health needs. Understanding health outcomes in socially or economically disadvantaged subgroups is crucial to improving community health, and it requires innovative analytics and dynamic application of clinical and population data. While it is common practice to use proxy indicators, such as quality of life and mortality, when discussing health equity, these have shown limited utility and are rarely applied at a population-level within a health system. Therefore, we designed and implemented an index, calculated as the ratio of observed-to-expected encounters, to identify and quantify health inequalities in health care systems. Providing equitable care, as measured by health outcomes, is analogous to precision medicine applied to social determinants. For health systems, the use of this index will facilitate the development of specially-tailored interventions to address inequity and provides a tool to measure the impact of such programs.

Admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a national observational study in the general and COPD population

BACKGROUND

Hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) may be prevented by effective ambulatory management and treatment. ACSC admissions is used as indicator for primary care quality and accessibility. However, debate continues to which extent these admissions are truly preventable. The aim of this study was to provide more objective insight into the preventability of ACSC admissions.

METHODS

Observational study using 2012-15 health insurer claim data of 13 182 602 Dutch insured inhabitants. Logistic multilevel regression analyses were conducted to investigate factors (ambulatory care and characteristics of inhabitants) possibly associated with ACSC admissions. Prior ambulatory care use was examined for patients with an ACSC contributing to the highest number of ACSC admissions: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

RESULTS

In 2014, 89.8 hospital admissions for ACSCs per 10 000 insured inhabitants were claimed. Percentage of inhabitants with ACSC admissions varied between general practices from 0.58-0.84%. ASCS admissions were hardly associated with ambulatory care. One month prior to admission, 97% of admitted COPD patients had at least one ambulatory care contact.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in ACSC admissions between general practitioners was observed, indicating that certain hospital admissions may be prevented. However, we found no indication that ACSC admissions were preventable, as no link was found with the provision of ambulatory care and ACSC admissions. This may indicate that this indicator is country and health care system specific. Before including ACSC admission as quality indicator of primary care in the Netherlands, more insight into the causes of variation is required.

Underutilized and undertheorized: the use of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions for assessing the extent to which primary healthcare services are meeting needs in British Columbia First Nation communities

BACKGROUND

Since the 1960s, the federal government has been providing or funding a selection of community-based primary healthcare (PHC) programs on First Nations reserves. A key question is whether local access to PHC can help address health inequities in First Nations on-reserve communities in British Columbia (BC).

OBJECTIVES

This paper examines whether hospitalization for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (1) can be used as a proxy measure for the organization of PHC in First Nations reserve areas; and (2) is associated with premature mortality rates.

METHODS

In this descriptive correlational study, we used administrative data available through Population Data BC, including demographic and ecological information (i.e. geo-codes indicating location of residence). We used two different measures of hospitalization: rates of episodic hospital care and rates of length of stay. We correlated hospitalization rates with premature mortality rates and the level of care available in First Nations communities, which depends on a federal funding formula based upon community size and, more specifically, the level of isolation from a provincial point of care.

RESULTS

First Nations communities in BC that have local 24/7 access to PHC services have similar rates of hospitalization for ACSC to those living in urban centres. This is demonstrated by the similarities in the strengths of the correlation between premature mortality rates and rates of avoidable hospitalization for conditions treatable in a PHC setting. This is not the case for communities served by a Health Centre (weaker correlation) and for communities serviced by a Health Station or with no on-reserve point of care (no correlation).

CONCLUSIONS

Improving access to PHC services in First Nations communities can be associated with a significant reduction in avoidable hospitalization and premature mortality rates. The method we tested is an important tool that could serve health care planning decisions in small communities.

The economic consequences of practice style variation in providing medical interventions: A systematic review of the literature

The practice style variation (PSV) incurs undesirable clinical and economic consequences for patients and the healthcare system. This review aims to analyze the economic consequences of PSV in medical interventions. A comprehensive electronic search was conducted through PubMed, Web of Sciences, EBSCO, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases to retrieve studies on economic consequences of PSV within 1975-2018. The studies were independently assessed by two reviewers. The quality of studies was assessed by Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology checklist. No language restriction was applied. Only four studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies have been conducted retrospectively in developed countries. Most of the included studies used consumer demand theory to measure the economic consequences of PSV. Findings showed 12%-74% of all variations in healthcare services are related to PSV, thereby incurring up to 23 million dollars for the healthcare system. The PSV is related to the total expenditure, price elasticity, and coefficient of variation of healthcare services. PSV associated with huge inefficiency and inequity in access to healthcare services. To mitigate the consequences of PSV, policymakers should consider PSV in both developing the medical education plans as well as cost management. Using multilevel analysis to investigate the determinants of PSV would be beneficial.

CDS in a Learning Health Care System: Identifying Physicians' Reasons for Rejection of Best-Practice Recommendations in Pneumonia through Computerized Clinical Decision Support

BACKGROUND

Local implementation of guidelines for pneumonia care is strongly recommended, but the context of care that affects implementation is poorly understood. In a learning health care system, computerized clinical decision support (CDS) provides an opportunity to both improve and track practice, providing insights into the implementation process.

OBJECTIVES

This article examines physician interactions with a CDS to identify reasons for rejection of guideline recommendations.

METHODS

We implemented a multicenter bedside CDS for the emergency department management of pneumonia that integrated patient data with guideline-based recommendations. We examined the frequency of adoption versus rejection of recommendations for site-of-care and antibiotic selection. We analyzed free-text responses provided by physicians explaining their clinical reasoning for rejection, using concept mapping and thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Among 1,722 patient episodes, physicians rejected recommendations to send a patient home in 24%, leaving text in 53%; reasons for rejection of the recommendations included additional or alternative diagnoses beyond pneumonia, and comorbidities or signs of physiologic derangement contributing to risk of outpatient failure that were not processed by the CDS. Physicians rejected broad-spectrum antibiotic recommendations in 10%, leaving text in 76%; differences in pathogen risk assessment, additional patient information, concern about antibiotic properties, and admitting physician preferences were given as reasons for rejection.

CONCLUSION

While adoption of CDS recommendations for pneumonia was high, physicians rejecting recommendations frequently provided feedback, reporting alternative diagnoses, additional individual patient characteristics, and provider preferences as major reasons for rejection. CDS that collects user feedback is feasible and can contribute to a learning health system.