A cluster randomised controlled trial of two rounds of mass drug administration in Zanzibar, a malaria pre-elimination setting-high coverage and safety, but no significant impact on transmission

Strong isolation by distance and evidence of population microstructure reflect ongoing Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Zanzibar

Background

The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania and continued local transmission.

Methods

To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo district on the coastal mainland from 2016 to 2018.

Results

Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to the rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low-level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes.

Conclusions

Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population in Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive to malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.

Funding

This research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, grants R01AI121558, R01AI137395, R01AI155730, F30AI143172, and K24AI134990. Funding was also contributed from the Swedish Research Council, Erling-Persson Family Foundation, and the Yang Fund. RV acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. RV also acknowledges funding by Community Jameel.

Strong isolation by distance and evidence of population microstructure reflect ongoing Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Zanzibar

The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania, and continued local transmission. To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo District on the coastal mainland from 2016-2018. Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population on Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive for malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.

Impact of population based indoor residual spraying in combination with mass drug administration on malaria incidence and test positivity in a high transmission setting in north eastern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are potent malaria burden reduction tools. The impact of combining MDA and IRS is not well documented. We evaluated the impact of MDA + IRS compared to IRS alone at a high transmission site in Eastern Uganda.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental study was implemented in Toroma and Kapujan subcounties in north eastern Uganda. Both subcounties received four rounds of IRS using primiphos-methyl (Acttellic SC300) 6-8 months apart from December 2016 to December 2018. Eligible residents of Kapujan simultaneously received MDA using dihydroartemesinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQ). Health facility data was used to monitor malaria case incidence rate and test positivity rates.

RESULTS

In the MDA + IRS arm, malaria incidence dropped by 83% (IRR: 0·17 (0.16-0.18); p < 0.001) in children under 5 year and by 78% (IRR: 0·22 (0.22-0.23); p < 0.001) in persons aged ≥ 5 years from the pre-intervention to the intervention period. In the IRS arm malaria incidence dropped by 47% (IRR: 0.53 (0.51, 0.56); p < 0.001) in children under 5 years and by 71% 0.29 (0.28, 0.30); p < 0.001) in persons aged ≥ 5 years. A drastic drop occurred immediately after the intervention after which cases slowly increased in both arms. Malaria test positivity rate (TPR) dropped at a rate of 21 (p = 0.003) percentage points per 1000 persons in the MDA + IRS arm compared to the IRS arm. There was a mean decrease of 60 (p-value, 0.040) malaria cases among children under five years and a mean decrease in TPR of 16·16 (p-value, 0.001) in the MDA + IRS arm compared to IRS arm.

INTERPRETATION

MDA significantly reduced malaria burden among children < 5 years however the duration of this impact needs to be further investigated.

Antimalarial mass drug administration in large populations and the evolution of drug resistance

Mass drug administration (MDA) with antimalarials has been shown to reduce prevalence and interrupt transmission in small populations, in populations with reliable access to antimalarial drugs, and in populations where sustained improvements in diagnosis and treatment are possible. In addition, when MDA is effective it eliminates both drug-resistant parasites and drug-sensitive parasites, which has the long-term benefit of extending the useful therapeutic life of first-line therapies for all populations, not just the focal population where MDA was carried out. However, in order to plan elimination measures effectively, it is necessary to characterize the conditions under which failed MDA could exacerbate resistance. We use an individual-based stochastic model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate this risk for MDA using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), in populations where access to antimalarial treatments may not be uniformly high and where re-importation of drug-resistant parasites may be common. We find that artemisinin-resistance evolution at the kelch13 locus can be accelerated by MDA when all three of the following conditions are met: (1) strong genetic bottlenecking that falls short of elimination, (2) re-importation of artemisinin-resistant genotypes, and (3) continued selection pressure during routine case management post-MDA. Accelerated resistance levels are not immediate but follow the rebound of malaria cases post-MDA, if this is allowed to occur. Crucially, resistance is driven by the selection pressure during routine case management post-MDA and not the selection pressure exerted during the MDA itself. Second, we find that increasing treatment coverage post-MDA increases the probability of local elimination in low-transmission regions (prevalence < 2%) in scenarios with both low and high levels of drug-resistance importation. This emphasizes the importance of planning for and supporting high coverage of diagnosis and treatment post-MDA.

Malaria Transmission Dynamics in a High-Transmission Setting of Western Kenya and the Inadequate Treatment Response to Artemether-Lumefantrine in an Asymptomatic Population

BACKGROUND

Assessing the infectious reservoir is critical in malaria control and elimination strategies. We conducted a longitudinal epidemiological study in a high-malaria-burden region in Kenya to characterize transmission in an asymptomatic population.

METHODS

488 study participants encompassing all ages in 120 households within 30 clusters were followed for 1 year with monthly sampling. Malaria was diagnosed by microscopy and molecular methods. Transmission potential in gametocytemic participants was assessed using direct skin and/or membrane mosquito feeding assays, then treated with artemether-lumefantrine. Study variables were assessed using mixed-effects generalized linear models.

RESULTS

Asexual and sexual parasite data were collected from 3792 participant visits, with 903 linked with feeding assays. Univariate analysis revealed that the 6-11-year-old age group was at higher risk of harboring asexual and sexual infections than those <6 years old (odds ratio [OR] 1.68, P < .001; and OR 1.81, P < .001), respectively. Participants with submicroscopic parasitemia were at a lower risk of gametocytemia compared with microscopic parasitemia (OR 0.04, P < .001), but they transmitted at a significantly higher rate (OR 2.00, P = .002). A large proportion of the study population who were infected at least once remained infected (despite treatment) with asexual (71.7%, 291/406) or sexual (37.4%, 152/406) parasites. 88.6% (365/412) of feeding assays conducted in individuals who failed treatment the previous month resulted in transmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with asymptomatic infection sustain the transmission cycle, with the 6-11-year age group serving as an important reservoir. The high rates of artemether-lumefantrine treatment failures suggest surveillance programs using molecular methods need to be expanded for accurate monitoring and evaluation of treatment outcomes.

Effect of large-scale mass drug administration for malaria on mortality and morbidity in Angumu health zone, Ituri, Democratic Republic of Congo

BACKGROUND

Angumu health zone in Ituri, Democratic Republic of Congo, is a highly malaria-endemic area with an overburdened health system and hosting internally displaced persons (IDP). The World Health Organization recommends mass drug administration (MDA) for malaria in complex emergencies. Therefore, three MDA rounds were implemented by Ministry of Public Health and Médecins sans Frontières from September 2020 to January 2021 in four health areas selected for epidemiological (high malaria incidence) and logistic reasons. Reported mortality and morbidity were compared in locations where MDA has been performed and locations where it has not.

METHODS

A non-randomized controlled population-based retrospective mortality survey was conducted in March 2021. Two-stage cluster sampling was used in villages; all IDP sites were surveyed with systematic random sampling. The main (mortality rates) and secondary (morbidity) outcomes were estimated and compared between locations where MDA had been conducted and where it had not, using mixed Poisson and binomial regression models respectively.

RESULTS

Data was collected for 2554 households and 15470 individuals, of whom 721 died in the 18-month recall period. The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) decreased in the locations where MDA had been implemented from 2.32 [1.48-3.16] "before" the MDA to 1.10 [0.5-1.71] deaths/10,000 children under 5 years/day "after", whereas it remained stable from 2.74 [2.08-3.40] to 2.67 [1.84-3.50] deaths/10,000 children/day in the same time periods in locations where MDA had not been implemented. The U5MR and malaria-specific mortality was significantly higher in non-MDA locations after MDA was implemented (aRR = 2.17 [1.36-3.49] and 2.60 [1.56-4.33], respectively, for all-cause and malaria-specific mortality among children  < 5 years). Morbidity (all age and  < 5 years, all cause or malaria-specific) appeared lower in MDA locations 2.5 months after last round: reported malaria-specific morbidity was 14.7% [11-18] and 25.0% [19-31] in villages and IDP sites where MDA had been implemented, while it was 30.4% [27-33] and 49.3% [45-54] in villages and IDP sites with no MDA.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite traditional limitations associated with non-randomized controlled retrospective surveys, the documented sharp decrease of under-5 mortality and morbidity shows that MDA has the potential to become an important malaria-control tool in emergency settings. Based on these results, new MDA rounds, along with indoor residual spraying campaigns, have been planned in the health zone in 2022. A set of surveys will be conducted before, during and after these rounds to confirm the effect observed in 2021 and assess its duration.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar, 2015-2020

BACKGROUND

Despite high coverage of malaria interventions, malaria elimination in Zanzibar remains elusive, with the annual number of cases increasing gradually over the last 3 years.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of the study were to (1) assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria in Zanzibar between 2015 and 2020 and (2) identify malaria hotspots that would allow Zanzibar to develop an epidemiological stratification for more effective and granular intervention targeting.

METHODS

In this study, we analysed data routinely collected by Zanzibar's Malaria Case Notification (MCN) system. The system collects sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all malaria cases. Cases are passively detected at health facilities (ie, primary index cases) and through case follow-up and reactive case detection (ie, secondary cases). Analyses were performed to identify the spatial heterogeneity of case reporting at shehia (ward) level during transmission seasons.

RESULTS

From 1 January 2015 to 30 April 2020, the MCN system reported 22 686 index cases. Number of cases reported showed a declining trends from 2015 to 2016, followed by an increase from 2017 to 2020. More than 40% of cases had a travel history outside Zanzibar in the month prior to testing positive for malaria. The proportion of followed up index cases was approximately 70% for all years. Out of 387 shehias, 79 (20.4%) were identified as malaria hotspots in any given year; these hotspots reported 52% of all index cases during the study period. Of the 79 hotspot shehias, 12 were hotspots in more than 4 years, that is, considered temporally stable, reporting 14.5% of all index cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm that the scale-up of malaria interventions has greatly reduced malaria transmission in Zanzibar since 2006. Analyses identified hotspots, some of which were stable across multiple years. Malaria efforts should progress from a universal intervention coverage approach to an approach that is more tailored to a select number of hotspot shehias.

Safety of single-dose primaquine as a Plasmodium falciparum gametocytocide: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended single low-dose (SLD, 0.25 mg/kg) primaquine to be added as a Plasmodium (P.) falciparum gametocytocide to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) without glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing, to accelerate malaria elimination efforts and avoid the spread of artemisinin resistance. Uptake of this recommendation has been relatively slow primarily due to safety concerns.

METHODS

A systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of single-dose (SD) primaquine studies for P. falciparum malaria were performed. Absolute and fractional changes in haemoglobin concentration within a week and adverse effects within 28 days of treatment initiation were characterised and compared between primaquine and no primaquine arms using random intercept models.

RESULTS

Data comprised 20 studies that enrolled 6406 participants, of whom 5129 (80.1%) had received a single target dose of primaquine ranging between 0.0625 and 0.75 mg/kg. There was no effect of primaquine in G6PD-normal participants on haemoglobin concentrations. However, among 194 G6PD-deficient African participants, a 0.25 mg/kg primaquine target dose resulted in an additional 0.53 g/dL (95% CI 0.17-0.89) reduction in haemoglobin concentration by day 7, with a 0.27 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) g/dL haemoglobin drop estimated for every 0.1 mg/kg increase in primaquine dose. Baseline haemoglobin, young age, and hyperparasitaemia were the main determinants of becoming anaemic (Hb < 10 g/dL), with the nadir observed on ACT day 2 or 3, regardless of G6PD status and exposure to primaquine. Time to recovery from anaemia took longer in young children and those with baseline anaemia or hyperparasitaemia. Serious adverse haematological events after primaquine were few (9/3, 113, 0.3%) and transitory. One blood transfusion was reported in the primaquine arms, and there were no primaquine-related deaths. In controlled studies, the proportions with either haematological or any serious adverse event were similar between primaquine and no primaquine arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the WHO recommendation to use 0.25 mg/kg of primaquine as a P. falciparum gametocytocide, including in G6PD-deficient individuals. Although primaquine is associated with a transient reduction in haemoglobin levels in G6PD-deficient individuals, haemoglobin levels at clinical presentation are the major determinants of anaemia in these patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, CRD42019128185.

Mass drug administration of ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine against malaria in settings with high coverage of standard control interventions: a cluster-randomised controlled trial in The Gambia

BACKGROUND

Although the malaria burden has substantially decreased in sub-Saharan Africa, progress has stalled. We assessed whether mass administration of ivermectin (a mosquitocidal drug) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (an antimalarial treatment) reduces malaria in The Gambia, an area with high coverage of standard control interventions.

METHODS

This open-label, cluster-randomised controlled trial was done in the Upper River region of eastern Gambia. Villages with a baseline Plasmodium falciparum prevalence of 7-46% (all ages) and separated from each other by at least 3 km to reduce vector spillover were selected. Inclusion criteria were age and anthropometry (for ivermectin, weight of ≥15 kg; for dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, participants older than 6 months); willingness to comply with trial procedures; and written informed consent. Villages were randomised (1:1) to either the intervention (ivermectin [orally at 300-400 μg/kg per day for 3 consecutive days] and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine [orally depending on bodyweight] plus standard control interventions) or the control group (standard control interventions) using computer-based randomisation. Laboratory staff were masked to the origin of samples. In the intervention group, three rounds of mass drug administration once per month with ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine were given during two malaria transmission seasons from Aug 27 to Oct 31, 2018, and from July 15 to Sept 30, 2019. Primary outcomes were malaria prevalence by qPCR at the end of the second intervention year in November 2019, and Anopheles gambiae (s l) parous rate, analysed in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03576313.

FINDINGS

Between Nov 20 and Dec 7, 2017, 47 villages were screened for eligibility in the study. 15 were excluded because the baseline malaria prevalence was less than 7% (figure 1). 32 villages were enrolled and randomised to either the intervention or control group (n=16 in each group). The study population was 10 638, of which 4939 (46%) participants were in intervention villages. Coverage for dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was between 49·0% and 58·4% in 2018, and between 76·1% and 86·0% in 2019; for ivermectin, coverage was between 46·9% and 52·2% in 2018, and between 71·7% and 82·9% in 2019. In November 2019, malaria prevalence was 12·8% (324 of 2529) in the control group and 5·1% (140 of 2722) in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR] 0·30, 95% CI 0·16-0·59; p<0·001). A gambiae (s l) parous rate was 83·1% (552 of 664) in the control group and 81·7% (441 of 540) in the intervention group (0·90, 0·66-1·25; p=0·537). In 2019, adverse events were recorded in 386 (9·7%) of 3991 participants in round one, 201 (5·4%) of 3750 in round two, and 168 (4·5%) of 3752 in round three. None of the 11 serious adverse events were related to the intervention.

INTERPRETATION

The intervention was safe and well tolerated. In an area with high coverage of standard control interventions, mass drug administration of ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine significantly reduced malaria prevalence; however, no effect of ivermectin on vector parous rate was observed.

FUNDING

Joint Global Health Trials Scheme.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Is it time for Africa to adopt primaquine in the era of malaria control and elimination?

Primaquine is a gametocytocidal drug known to significantly reduce malaria transmission. However, primaquine induces a dose-dependent acute hemolytic anemia (AHA) in individuals with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency that has led to a limited use of the drug especially in Africa where the condition is common. The World Health Organization (WHO) now recommends a single low dose (SLD) of primaquine (0.25 mg/kg) as P. falciparum gametocytocidal without the need for prior screening of G6PD status. Adoption and implementation of SLD primaquine in Africa may probably reduce malaria transmission, a pre-requisite for malaria elimination. This review therefore, focused on the safety of primaquine for control of malaria in Africa. The literature search was performed using online database Google Scholar, PubMed, HINARI, and Science Direct. Search terms used were “malaria”, “primaquine”, “safety”, “G6PD deficiency”, “large scale” or “mass administration”. Clinical trials in many African countries have shown SLD primaquine to be safe especially in a milder African G6PD A- variant. Likewise, large-scale primaquine administrations outside Africa involving hundreds of thousands to tenths of millions of participants and with severe variants of G6PD deficiency have also shown primaquine to be safe and well-tolerated. Fourteen deaths associated with primaquine have been reported globally over the past 6 decades, but none occurred following the administration of SLD primaquine. Available evidence shows that the WHO-recommended SLD primaquine dose added to effective schizonticides is safe and well-tolerated even in individuals with G6PD deficiency, and therefore, it can be safely used in the African population with the mildest G6PD A- variant.

Sub-Saharan Africa contributes about 95% of global malaria cases and related deaths.

Despite safety concerns adoption of SLD primaquine is needed to further reduce malaria transmission, an essential prerequisite for the elimination of the infection in Africa.

Large scale administrations of primaquine for control and elimination of malaria have been implemented in other parts of the world where there are severe variants of G6PD deficiency, but only around 1% of the population had mild adverse effects.

African G6PD A- is a milder variant of deficiency, and the hemolysis that occurs following a single 0.25 mg/kg primaquine administration in this group is usually mild and self-limiting.

With proper planning and preparation for the management of adverse effects, administration of SLD primaquine plus effective schizonticides, in a form of mass drug administration or seasonal malaria chemoprevention can be used in Africa to reduce malaria transmission.

Mass drug administration for malaria

BACKGROUND

Studies evaluating mass drug administration (MDA) in malarious areas have shown reductions in malaria immediately following the intervention. However, these effects vary by endemicity and are not sustained. Since the 2013 version of this Cochrane Review on this topic, additional studies have been published.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objectives To assess the sustained effect of MDA with antimalarial drugs on: - the reduction in malaria transmission in moderate- to high-transmission settings; - the interruption of transmission in very low- to low-transmission settings. Secondary objective To summarize the risk of drug-associated adverse effects following MDA.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched several trial registries, citation databases, conference proceedings, and reference lists for relevant articles up to 11 February 2021. We also communicated with researchers to identify additional published and unpublished studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomized studies comparing MDA to no MDA with balanced co-interventions across study arms and at least two geographically distinct sites per study arm.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trials for eligibility and extracted data. We calculated relative risk (RR) and rate ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to compare prevalence and incidence, respectively, in MDA compared to no-MDA groups. We stratified analyses by malaria transmission and by malaria species. For cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs), we adjusted standard errors using the intracluster correlation coefficient. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. For non-randomized controlled before-and-after (CBA) studies, we summarized the data using difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

Thirteen studies met our criteria for inclusion. Ten were cRCTs and three were CBAs. Cluster-randomized controlled trials Moderate- to high-endemicity areas (prevalence ≥ 10%) We included data from two studies conducted in The Gambia and Zambia.  At one to three months after MDA, the Plasmodium falciparum (hereafter, P falciparum) parasitaemia prevalence estimates may be higher compared to control but the CIs included no effect (RR 1.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 5.36; Zambia study; low-certainty evidence); parasitaemia incidence was probably lower (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.92; The Gambia study; moderate-certainty evidence); and confirmed malaria illness incidence may be substantially lower,  but the CIs included no effect (rate ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.04 to 4.42; Zambia study; low-certainty evidence).  At four to six months after MDA, MDA showed little or no effect on P falciparum parasitaemia prevalence (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.56; The Gambia study; moderate-certainty evidence) and, no persisting effect was demonstrated with parasitaemia incidence (rate ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.50; The Gambia study). Very low- to low-endemicity areas (prevalence < 10%) Seven studies from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (two studies), Vietnam, Zambia, and Zanzibar evaluated the effects of multiple rounds of MDA on P falciparum. Immediately following MDA (less than one month after MDA), parasitaemia prevalence was reduced (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.52; one study; low-certainty evidence). At one to three months after MDA, there was a reduction in both parasitaemia incidence (rate ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.55; 1 study; moderate-certainty evidence) and prevalence (RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.41; 7 studies; low-certainty evidence). For confirmed malaria incidence, absolute rates were low, and it is uncertain whether MDA had an effect on this outcome (rate ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.12 to 2.73; 2 studies; very low-certainty evidence).  For P falciparum prevalence, the relative differences declined over time, from RR 0.63 (95% CI 0.36 to 1.12; 4 studies) at four to six months after MDA, to RR 0.86 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.36; 5 studies) at 7 to 12 months after MDA. Longer-term prevalence estimates showed overall low absolute risks, and relative effect estimates of the effect of MDA on prevalence varied from RR 0.82 (95% CI 0.20 to 3.34) at 13 to 18 months after MDA, to RR 1.25 (95% CI 0.25 to 6.31) at 31 to 36 months after MDA in one study. Five studies from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (2 studies), and Vietnam evaluated the effect of MDA on Plasmodium vivax (hereafter, P vivax). One month following MDA, P vivax prevalence was lower (RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.40; 1 study; low-certainty evidence). At one to three months after MDA, there was a reduction in P vivax prevalence (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.24; 5 studies; low-certainty evidence). The immediate reduction on P vivax prevalence was not sustained over time, from RR 0.78 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.95; 4 studies) at four to six months after MDA, to RR 1.12 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.32; 5 studies) at 7 to 12 months after MDA. One of the studies in Myanmar provided estimates of longer-term effects, where overall absolute risks were low, ranging from RR 0.81 (95% CI 0.44 to 1.48) at 13 to 18 months after MDA, to RR 1.20 (95% CI 0.44 to 3.29) at 31 to 36 months after MDA. Non-randomized studies Three CBA studies were conducted in moderate- to high-transmission areas in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria. There was a reduction in P falciparum parasitaemia prevalence in MDA groups compared to control groups during MDA (DiD range: -15.8 to -61.4 percentage points), but the effect varied at one to three months after MDA (DiD range: 14.9 to -41.1 percentage points).  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In moderate- to high-transmission settings, no studies reported important effects on P falciparum parasitaemia prevalence within six months after MDA. In very low- to low-transmission settings, parasitaemia prevalence and incidence were reduced initially for up to three months for both P falciparum and P vivax; longer-term data did not demonstrate an effect after four months, but absolute risks in both intervention and control groups were low. No studies provided evidence of interruption of malaria transmission.

The short-term impact of a malaria elimination initiative in Southern Mozambique: Application of the synthetic control method to routine surveillance data

In public health epidemiology, quasi-experimental methods are widely used to estimate the causal impacts of interventions. In this paper, we demonstrate the contribution the synthetic control method (SCM) can make in evaluating public health interventions, when routine surveillance data are available and the validity of other quasi-experimental approaches may be in question. In our application, we evaluate the short-term effects of a large-scale Mass Drug Administration (MDA) based malaria elimination initiative in Southern Mozambique. We apply the SCM to district level weekly malaria incidence data and compare the observed reduction in age group specific malaria incidence. Between August 2015 and April 2017, a total of 13,322 (78%) cases of malaria were averted relative to the synthetic control. During the peak malaria seasons, the elimination initiative resulted in an 87% reduction in Year 1 (December 2015-April 2016), and 79% reduction in Year 2 (December 2016-April 2017). Comparison with an interrupted time series approach shows the SCM accounts for pre-intervention trends in the data and post-intervention weather events influencing malaria cases. We conclude MDA brought about a drastic reduction in malaria burden and can be a useful addition to existing (or new) vector control strategies and tools in accelerating towards elimination.

Effectiveness of spatially targeted interventions for control of HIV, tuberculosis, leprosy and malaria: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

As infectious diseases approach global elimination targets, spatial targeting is increasingly important to identify community hotspots of transmission and effectively target interventions. We aimed to synthesise relevant evidence to define best practice approaches and identify policy and research gaps.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically appraise evidence for the effectiveness of spatially targeted community public health interventions for HIV, tuberculosis (TB), leprosy and malaria.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews between 1 January 1993 and 22 March 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

The studies had to include HIV or TB or leprosy or malaria and spatial hotspot definition, and community interventions.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

A data extraction tool was used. For each study, we summarised approaches to identifying hotpots, intervention design and effectiveness of the intervention.

RESULTS

Ten studies, including one cluster randomised trial and nine with alternative designs (before-after, comparator area), satisfied our inclusion criteria. Spatially targeted interventions for HIV (one USA study), TB (three USA) and leprosy (two Brazil, one Federated States of Micronesia) each used household location and disease density to define hotspots followed by community-based screening. Malaria studies (one each from India, Indonesia and Kenya) used household location and disease density for hotspot identification followed by complex interventions typically combining community screening, larviciding of stagnant water bodies, indoor residual spraying and mass drug administration. Evidence of effect was mixed.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies investigating spatially targeted interventions were few in number, and mostly underpowered or otherwise limited methodologically, affecting interpretation of intervention impact. Applying advanced epidemiological methodologies supporting more robust hotspot identification and larger or more intensive interventions would strengthen the evidence-base for this increasingly important approach.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019130133.

Reactive, self-administered malaria treatment against asymptomatic malaria infection: results of a cluster randomized controlled trial in The Gambia

BACKGROUND

Selectively targeting and treating malaria-infected individuals may further decrease parasite carriage in low-burden settings. Using a trans-disciplinary approach, a reactive treatment strategy to reduce Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in participating communities was co-developed and tested.

METHODS

This is a 2-arm, open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving villages in Central Gambia during the 2017 and 2018 malaria transmission season. Villages were randomized in a 1:1 ratio using a minimizing algorithm. In the intervention arm, trained village health workers delivered a full course of pre-packed dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to all residents of compounds where clinical cases were reported while in the control arm, compound residents were screened for infection at the time of the index case reporting. All index cases were treated following national guidelines. The primary endpoint was malaria prevalence, determined by molecular methods, at the end of the intervention period.

RESULTS

The trial was carried out in 50 villages: 34 in 2017 and 16 additional villages in 2018. At the end of the 2018 transmission season, malaria prevalence was 0.8% (16/1924, range 0-4%) and 1.1% (20/1814, range 0-17%) in the intervention and control arms, respectively. The odds of malaria infection were 29% lower in the intervention than in the control arm after adjustment for age (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.27-1.84, p = 0.48). Adherence to treatment was high, with 98% (964/979) of those treated completing the 3-day treatment. Over the course of the study, only 37 villages, 20 in the intervention and 17 in the control arm, reported at least one clinical case. The distribution of clinical cases by month in both transmission seasons was similar and the odds of new clinical malaria cases during the trial period did not vary between arms (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.57-1.91, p = 0.893). All adverse events were classified as mild to moderate and resolved completely.

CONCLUSION

The systematic and timely administration of an anti-malarial treatment to residents of compounds with confirmed malaria cases did not significantly decrease malaria prevalence and incidence in communities where malaria prevalence was already low. Treatment coverage and adherence was very high. Results were strongly influenced by the lower-than-expected malaria prevalence, and by no clinical cases in villages with asymptomatic malaria-infected individuals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02878200. Registered 25 August 2016. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02878200 .

Effectiveness and safety of reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to reduce malaria transmission in the very low-endemic setting of Eswatini: a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

To reduce malaria transmission in very low-endemic settings, screening and treatment near index cases (reactive case detection (RACD)), is widely practised, but the rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) used miss low-density infections. Reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) may be safe and more effective.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in Eswatini, a very low-endemic setting. 77 clusters were randomised to rfMDA using dihydroartemisin-piperaquine (DP) or RACD involving RDTs and artemether-lumefantrine. Interventions were delivered by the local programme. An intention-to-treat analysis was used to compare cluster-level cumulative confirmed malaria incidence among clusters with cases. Secondary outcomes included safety and adherence.

RESULTS

From September 2015 to August 2017, 222 index cases from 47 clusters triggered 46 RACD events and 64 rfMDA events. RACD and rfMDA were delivered to 1455 and 1776 individuals, respectively. Index case coverage was 69.5% and 62.4% for RACD and rfMDA, respectively. Adherence to DP was 98.7%. No serious adverse events occurred. For rfMDA versus RACD, cumulative incidences (per 1000 person-years) of all malaria were 2.11 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.59) and 1.97 (95% CI 1.57 to 2.47), respectively; and of locally acquired malaria, they were 1.29 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.67) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.34), respectively. Adjusting for imbalance in baseline incidence, incidence rate ratio for rfMDA versus RACD was 0.95 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.65) for all malaria and 0.82 (95% CI 0.40 to 1.71) for locally acquired malaria. Similar results were obtained in a per-protocol analysis that excluded clusters with <80% index case coverage.

CONCLUSION

In a very low-endemic, real-world setting, rfMDA using DP was safe, but did not lower incidence compared with RACD, potentially due to insufficient coverage and/or power. To assess impact of interventions in very low-endemic settings, improved coverage, complementary interventions and adaptive ring trial designs may be needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02315690.

Estimating the programmatic cost of targeted mass drug administration for malaria in Myanmar

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) has received growing interest to accelerate the elimination of multi-drug resistant malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Targeted MDA, sometimes referred to as focal MDA, is the practice of delivering MDA to high incidence subpopulations only, rather than the entire population. The potential effectiveness of delivering targeted MDA was demonstrated in a recent intervention in Kayin State, Myanmar. Policymakers and funders need to know what resources are required if MDA, targeted or otherwise, is to be included in elimination packages beyond existing malaria interventions. This study aims to estimate the programmatic cost and the unit cost of targeted MDA in Kayin State, Myanmar.

Methods

We used financial data from a malaria elimination initiative, conducted in Kayin State, to estimate the programmatic costs of the targeted MDA component using a micro-costing approach. Three activities (community engagement, identification of villages for targeted MDA, and conducting mass treatment in target villages) were evaluated. We then estimated the programmatic costs of implementing targeted MDA to support P. falciparum malaria elimination in Kayin State. A costing tool was developed to aid future analyses.

Results

The cost of delivering targeted MDA within an integrated malaria elimination initiative in eastern Kayin State was approximately US$ 910,000. The cost per person reached, distributed among those in targeted and non-targeted villages, for the MDA component was US$ 2.5.

Conclusion

This cost analysis can assist policymakers in determining the resources required to clear malaria parasite reservoirs. The analysis demonstrated the value of using financial data from research activities to predict programmatic implementation costs of targeting MDA to different numbers of target villages.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10842-5.

Performance and Application of Commercially Available Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) Kits in Malaria Endemic and Non-Endemic Settings

Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is a sensitive molecular tool suitable for use as a near point-of-care test for the diagnosis of malaria. Recent meta-analyses have detailed high sensitivity and specificity of malaria LAMP when compared to microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests, and polymerase chain reaction in both endemic and non-endemic settings. Despite this, the use of malaria LAMP has primarily been limited to research settings to date. In this review, we aim to assess to what extent commercially available malaria LAMP kits have been applied in different settings, and to identify possible obstacles that may have hindered their use from being adopted further. In order to address this, we conducted a literature search in PubMed.gov using the search terms (((LAMP) OR (Loop-mediated isothermal amplification)) AND ((Malaria) OR (Plasmodium))). Focusing primarily on studies employing one of the commercially available kits, we then selected three key areas of LAMP application for further review: the performance and application of LAMP in malaria endemic settings including low transmission areas; LAMP for malaria screening during pregnancy; and malaria LAMP in returning travelers in non-endemic settings.

Why Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infections Are Common in Low-Transmission Settings

Plasmodium falciparum infections in low-transmission settings are often asymptomatic with low parasite densities despite low herd immunity. Based on studies in Zanzibar, this may be due to parasitic (nonvirulence) rather than host (immunity) factors. In high-transmission settings, high replication rate and virulence represents a competitive advantage, whereas in low-transmission settings nonvirulent parasites escape both competition and treatment. Such parasites also survive longer in low-transmission settings due to lower host immunity response and less frequent indirect drug exposure. This has major implications for optimal malaria control and elimination strategies.

A multiphase program for malaria elimination in southern Mozambique (the Magude project): A before-after study

BACKGROUND

Malaria eradication remains the long-term vision of the World Health Organization (WHO). However, whether malaria elimination is feasible in areas of stable transmission in sub-Saharan Africa with currently available tools remains a subject of debate. This study aimed to evaluate a multiphased malaria elimination project to interrupt Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in a rural district of southern Mozambique.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A before-after study was conducted between 2015 and 2018 in the district of Magude, with 48,448 residents living in 10,965 households. Building on an enhanced surveillance system, two rounds of mass drug administrations (MDAs) per year over two years (phase I, August 2015-2017), followed by one year of reactive focal mass drug administrations (rfMDAs) (phase II, September 2017-June 2018) were deployed with annual indoor residual spraying (IRS), programmatically distributed long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), and standard case management. The four MDA rounds covered 58%-72% of the population, and annual IRS reported coverage was >70%. Yearly parasite surveys and routine surveillance data were used to monitor the primary outcomes of the study-malaria prevalence and incidence-at baseline and annually since the onset of the project. Parasite prevalence by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) declined from 9.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.0-11.8) in May 2015 to 2.6% (95% CI 2.0-3.4), representing a 71.3% (95% CI 71.1-71.4, p < 0.001) reduction after phase I, and to 1.4% (95% CI 0.9-2.2) after phase II. This represented an 84.7% (95% CI 81.4-87.4, p < 0.001) overall reduction in all-age prevalence. Case incidence fell from 195 to 75 cases per 1,000 during phase I (61.5% reduction) and to 67 per 1,000 during phase II (65.6% overall reduction). Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to estimate the level and trend change in malaria cases associated with the set of project interventions and the number of cases averted. Phase I interventions were associated with a significant immediate reduction in cases of 69.1% (95% CI 57.5-77.6, p < 0.001). Phase II interventions were not associated with a level or trend change. An estimated 76.7% of expected cases were averted throughout the project (38,369 cases averted of 50,005 expected). One malaria-associated inpatient death was observed during the study period. There were 277 mild adverse events (AEs) recorded through the passive pharmacovigilance system during the four MDA rounds. One serious adverse event (SAE) that resulted in death was potentially related to the drug. The study was limited by the incomplete coverage of interventions, the quality of the routine and cross-sectional data collected, and the restricted accuracy of ITS analysis with a short pre-intervention period.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we observed that the interventions deployed during the Magude project fell short of interrupting P. falciparum transmission with the coverages achieved. While new tools and strategies may be required to eventually achieve malaria elimination in stable transmission areas of sub-Saharan Africa, this project showed that innovative mixes of interventions can achieve large reductions in disease burden, a necessary step in the pathway towards elimination.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02914145.

Evaluating the Impact of Programmatic Mass Drug Administration for Malaria in Zambia Using Routine Incidence Data

Background

In 2016, the Zambian National Malaria Elimination Centre started programmatic mass drug administration (pMDA) campaigns with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as a malaria elimination tool in Southern Province. Two rounds were administered, 2 months apart (coverage 70% and 57%, respectively). We evaluated the impact of 1 year of pMDA on malaria incidence using routine data.

Methods

We conducted an interrupted time series with comparison group analysis on monthly incidence data collected at the health facility catchment area (HFCA) level, with a negative binomial model using generalized estimating equations. Programmatic mass drug administration was conducted in HFCAs with greater than 50 cases/1000 people per year. Ten HFCAs with incidence rates marginally above this threshold (pMDA group) were compared with 20 HFCAs marginally below (comparison group).

Results

The pMDA HFCAs saw a 46% greater decrease in incidence at the time of intervention than the comparison areas (incidence rate ratio = 0.536; confidence interval = 0.337–0.852); however, incidence increased toward the end of the season. No HFCAs saw a transmission interruption.

Conclusions

Programmatic mass drug administration, implemented during 1 year with imperfect coverage in low transmission areas with suboptimal vector control coverage, significantly reduced incidence. However, elimination will require additional tools. Routine data are important resources for programmatic impact evaluations and should be considered for future analyses.

The Impact of Control Interventions on Malaria Burden in Young Children in a Historically High-Transmission District of Uganda: A Pooled Analysis of Cohort Studies from 2007 to 2018

There is limited evidence on whether malaria elimination is feasible in high-transmission areas of Africa. Between 2007 and 2018, we measured the impact of malaria control interventions in young children enrolled in three clinical trials and two observational studies in Tororo, Uganda, a historically high-transmission area. Data were pooled from children aged 0.5–2 years. Interventions included individually assigned chemoprevention and repeated rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. All children received long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and treatment for symptomatic malaria with artemisinin-based combination therapy. Malaria incidence was measured using passive surveillance and parasite prevalence by microscopy and molecular methods at regular intervals. Poisson’s generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the impact of various control interventions. In total, 939 children were followed over 1,221.7 person years. In the absence of chemoprevention and IRS (reference group), malaria incidence was 4.94 episodes per person year and parasite prevalence 47.3%. Compared with the reference group, implementation of IRS was associated with a 97.6% decrease (95% CI: 93.3–99.1%, P = 0.001) in the incidence of malaria and a 96.0% decrease (95% CI: 91.3–98.2%, P < 0.001) in parasite prevalence (both measured after the fifth and sixth rounds of IRS). The addition of chemoprevention with monthly dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine to IRS was associated with a 99.5% decrease (95% CI: 98.6–99.9%, P < 0.001) in the incidence of malaria. In a historically high–malaria burden area of Uganda, a combination of LLINs, effective case management, IRS, and chemoprevention was associated with almost complete elimination of malaria in young children.

Malaria resurgence after significant reduction by mass drug administration on Ngodhe Island, Kenya

Although WHO recommends mass drug administration (MDA) for malaria elimination, further evidence is required for understanding the obstacles for the optimum implementation of MDA. Just before the long rain in 2016, two rounds of MDA with artemisinin/piperaquine (Artequick) and low-dose primaquine were conducted with a 35-day interval for the entire population of Ngodhe Island (~500 inhabitants) in Lake Victoria, Kenya, which is surrounded by areas with moderate and high transmission. With approximately 90% compliance, Plasmodium prevalence decreased from 3% to 0% by microscopy and from 10% to 2% by PCR. However, prevalence rebounded to 9% by PCR two months after conclusion of MDA. Besides the remained local transmission, parasite importation caused by human movement likely contributed to the resurgence. Analyses of 419 arrivals to Ngodhe between July 2016 and September 2017 revealed Plasmodium prevalence of 4.6% and 16.0% by microscopy and PCR, respectively. Risk factors for infection among arrivals included age (0 to 5 and 11 to 15 years), and travelers from Siaya County, located to the north of Ngodhe Island. Parasite importation caused by human movement is one of major obstacles to sustain malaria elimination, suggesting the importance of cross-regional initiatives together with local vector control.

Mass drug administration should be implemented as a tool to accelerate elimination: against

In most malaria situations, mass drug administration (MDA) will result in a rapid reduction in the incidence and prevalence of malaria in the target population. However, due to practical reasons MDA hardly ever achieves coverage of the entire population and, therefore, will leave residual malaria infections in the population, from which malaria transmission can be resumed. Depending on the degree of access to prompt diagnosis and treatment and to effective vector control in the area, previous levels of incidence and prevalence will eventually be reached after MDA. It is, therefore, imperative that coverage with these interventions is ensured if MDA is to be implemented. Both effective vector control and access to treatment in combination will also reduce the malaria incidence and prevalence in an area, albeit more slowly than MDA. MDA’s role in elimination has to be considered in relation to the following: (1) MDA is logistically difficult, ethically questionable and may evoke parasite resistance to the medicines being used, (2) MDA will only accelerate elimination by reducing the starting number of infections, but that (3) it will be of no benefit to elimination unless both effective vector control and good access to treatment are in place. All malaria elimination efforts have, and will, succeed with good access to treatment, effective vector control, and case surveillance and response systems, and most have not, and will not require MDA. The role of MDA in elimination, if any, will be limited to some very specific situations—small foci of high transmission within a larger area which has made progress towards elimination, to which the former constitutes a continuing source of parasites and, therefore, could jeopardize the elimination effort in the larger area. Elimination of malaria needs not only to be achieved but also be sustained. This is particularly challenging in tropical countries where the risk of re-introduction is high. The haste to eliminate malaria using MDA must be balanced by investment of time and effort to establish effective vector control programmes, and case surveillance and response systems based on diagnosis and treatment services, which are core requisites for achieving elimination, and the latter for sustaining it.

Mass drug administration can be a valuable addition to the malaria elimination toolbox

The Global Technical Strategy 2016-2030 of the World Health Organization (WHO) has the ambitious goal of malaria being eliminated from at least 35 countries by 2030. However, in areas with once-stable malaria transmission, the reservoir of human infection may be intermittently symptomatic or fully silent yet still lead to transmission, posing a serious challenge to elimination. Mass drug administration (MDA), defined as the provision of a therapeutic dose of an effective anti-malarial drug to the entire target population, irrespective of infection status or symptoms, is one strategy to combat the silent human reservoir of infection. MDA is currently recommended by the WHO as a potential strategy for the elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in areas approaching interruption of transmission, given the prerequisites of good access to case management, effective vector control and surveillance, and limited potential for reintroduction. Recent community randomized controlled trials of MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, implemented as part of a comprehensive package of interventions, have shown this strategy to be safe and effective in significantly lowering the malaria burden in pre-elimination settings. Here it is argued that effectively implemented MDA should be kept in the elimination toolbox as a potential strategy for P. falciparum elimination in a variety of settings, including islands, appropriate low transmission settings, and in epidemics and complex emergencies. Effectively implemented MDA using an ACT has been shown to be safe, unrelated to the emergence of drug resistance, and may play an important role in sufficiently lowering the malaria burden to allow malaria transmission foci to be more easily identified, and to allow elimination programmes to more feasibly implement case-based surveillance and follow-up activities. To be most impactful and guard against drug resistance, MDA should use an ACT, achieve high programmatic coverage and adherence, be implemented when transmission is lowest in areas of limited risk of immediate parasite reintroduction, and must always be implemented only once good access to case management, high coverage of effective vector control, and strong surveillance have been achieved. If these considerations are taken into account, MDA should prove to be a valuable tool for the malaria elimination toolbox.

From high to low malaria transmission in Zanzibar-challenges and opportunities to achieve elimination

BACKGROUND

Substantial global progress in the control of malaria in recent years has led to increased commitment to its potential elimination. Whether this is possible in high transmission areas of sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. Zanzibar represents a unique case study of such attempt, where modern tools and strategies for malaria treatment and vector control have been deployed since 2003.

METHODS

We have studied temporal trends of comprehensive malariometric indices in two districts with over 100,000 inhabitants each. The analyses included triangulation of data from annual community-based cross-sectional surveys, health management information systems, vital registry and entomological sentinel surveys.

RESULTS

The interventions, with sustained high-community uptake, were temporally associated with a major malaria decline, most pronounced between 2004 and 2007 and followed by a sustained state of low transmission. In 2015, the Plasmodium falciparum community prevalence of 0.43% (95% CI 0.23-0.73) by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test represented 96% reduction compared with that in 2003. The P. falciparum and P. malariae prevalence by PCR was 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3), and the annual P. falciparum incidence was estimated to 8 infections including 2.8 clinical episodes per 1000 inhabitants. The total parasite load decreased over 1000-fold (99.9%) between 2003 and 2015. The incidence of symptomatic malaria at health facilities decreased by 94% with a trend towards relatively higher incidence in age groups > 5 years, a more pronounced seasonality and with reported travel history to/from Tanzania mainland as a higher risk factor. All-cause mortality among children < 5 years decreased by 72% between 2002 and 2007 mainly following the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapies whereas the main reduction in malaria incidence followed upon the vector control interventions from 2006. Human biting rates decreased by 98% with a major shift towards outdoor biting by Anopheles arabiensis.

CONCLUSIONS

Zanzibar provides new evidence of the feasibility of reaching uniquely significant and sustainable malaria reduction (pre-elimination) in a previously high endemic region in sub-Saharan Africa. The data highlight constraints of optimistic prognostic modelling studies. New challenges, mainly with outdoor transmission, a large asymptomatic parasite reservoir and imported infections, require novel tools and reoriented strategies to prevent a rebound effect and achieve elimination.

Mass drug administration for malaria elimination: do we understand the settings well enough?

Mass drug administration (MDA) of antimalarials has re-emerged as a recommended tool for interrupting malaria transmission, but evidence from low endemicity settings is scarce. A trial in Zanzibar found that two rounds of MDA made no significant impact on malaria incidence, and many questions on the optimal mode and setting for implementing MDA remain unanswered. A more thorough understanding of local sources and drivers of transmission, and a better toolbox for evaluating interventions in near-elimination settings are essential.Please see related research article: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-018-1202-8 .