Predictors of mortality in COPD exacerbation cases presenting to the respiratory intensive care unit

Prediction Model of In-Hospital Death for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: The PD-ICU Score

INTRODUCTION

Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) are exposed to poor clinical outcomes, and no specific prognostic models are available among this population. We aimed to develop and validate a risk score for prognosis prediction for these patients.

METHODS

This was a multicenter observation study. AECOPD patients admitted to ICU were included for model derivation from a prospective, multicenter cohort study. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify independent predictors for in-hospital death and establish the prognostic risk score. The risk score was further validated and compared with DECAF, BAP-65, CURB-65, and APACHE II score in another multicenter cohort.

RESULTS

Five variables were identified as independent predictors for in-hospital death in APCOPD patients admitted to ICU, and a corresponding risk score (PD-ICU score) was established, which was composed of procalcitonin >0.5 μg/L, diastolic blood pressure <60 mm Hg, need for invasive mechanical ventilation, disturbance of consciousness, and blood urea nitrogen >7.2 mmol/L. Patients were classified into three risk categories according to the PD-ICU score. The in-hospital mortality of low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients was 0.3%, 7.3%, and 27.9%, respectively. PD-ICU score displayed excellent discrimination ability with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.815 in the derivation cohort and 0.754 in the validation cohort which outperformed other prognostic models.

CONCLUSION

We derived and validated a simple and clinician-friendly prediction model (PD-ICU score) for in-hospital mortality among AECOPD patients admitted to ICU. With good performance and clinical practicability, this model may facilitate early risk stratification and optimal decision-making among these patients.

Triggers of intensive care patients with palliative care needs from nurses' perspective: a mixed methods study

PURPOSE

Triggers have been developed internationally to identify intensive care patients with palliative care needs. Due to their work, nurses are close to the patient and their perspective should therefore be included. In this study, potential triggers were first identified and then a questionnaire was developed to analyse their acceptance among German intensive care nurses.

METHODS

For the qualitative part of this mixed methods study, focus groups were conducted with intensive care nurses from different disciplines (surgery, neurosurgery, internal medicine), which were selected by convenience. Data were analysed using the "content-structuring content analysis" according to Kuckartz. For the quantitative study part, the thus identified triggers formed the basis for questionnaire items. The questionnaire was tested for comprehensibility in cognitive pretests and for feasibility in a pilot survey.

RESULTS

In the qualitative part six focus groups were conducted at four university hospitals. From the data four main categories (prognosis, interprofessional cooperation, relatives, patients) with three to 15 subcategories each could be identified. The nurses described situations requiring palliative care consults that related to the severity of the disease, the therapeutic course, communication within the team and between team and patient/relatives, and typical characteristics of patients and relatives. In addition, a professional conflict between nurses and physicians emerged. The questionnaire, which was developed after six cognitive interviews, consists of 32 items plus one open question. The pilot had a response rate of 76.7% (23/30), whereby 30 triggers were accepted with an agreement of ≥ 50%.

CONCLUSION

Intensive care nurses see various triggers, with interprofessional collaboration and the patient's prognosis playing a major role. The questionnaire can be used for further surveys, e.g. interprofessional triggers could be developed.

Respiratory Infection Triggering Severe Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background

Data are scarce on respiratory infections during severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study aimed to investigate respiratory infection patterns in the intensive care unit (ICU) and identify variables associated with infection type and patient outcome.

Methods

A retrospective, single-centre cohort study. All patients admitted (2015-2021) to our ICU for severe acute exacerbation of COPD were included. Logistic multivariable regression analysis was performed to predict factors associated with infection and assess the association between infection and outcome.

Results

We included 473 patients: 288 (60.9%) had respiratory infection and 139 (29.4%) required invasive mechanical ventilation. Eighty-nine (30.9%) had viral, 81 (28.1%) bacterial, 34 (11.8%) mixed, and 84 (29.2%) undocumented infections. Forty-seven (9.9%) patients died in the ICU and 67 (14.2%) in hospital. Factors associated with respiratory infection were temperature (odds ratio [+1°C]=1.43, P=0.008) and blood neutrophils (1.07, P=0.002). Male sex (2.21, P=0.02) and blood neutrophils were associated with bacterial infection (1.06, P=0.04). In a multivariable analysis, pneumonia (cause-specific hazard=1.75, P=0.005), respiratory rate (1.17, P=0.04), arterial partial pressure of carbon-dioxide (1.08, P=0.04), and lactate (1.14, P=0.02) were associated with the need for invasive MV. Age (1.03, P=0.03), immunodeficiency (1.96, P=0.02), and altered performance status (1.78, P=0.002) were associated with hospital mortality.

Conclusions

Respiratory infections, 39.9% of which were bacterial, were the main cause of severe acute exacerbation of COPD. Body temperature and blood neutrophils were single markers of infection. Pneumonia was associated with the need for invasive mechanical ventilation but not with hospital mortality, as opposed to age, immunodeficiency, and altered performance status.

A simple clinical risk score (ABCDMP) for predicting mortality in patients with AECOPD and cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND

The morbidity and mortality among hospital inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs remains unacceptably high. Currently, no risk score for predicting mortality has been specifically developed in patients with AECOPD and CVDs. We therefore aimed to derive and validate a simple clinical risk score to assess individuals' risk of poor prognosis.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We evaluated inpatients with AECOPD and CVDs in a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter cohort study. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the independent prognostic risk factors and created a risk score model according to patients' data from a derivation cohort. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The model was validated and compared with the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF and NIVO models in a validation cohort.

RESULTS

We derived a combined risk score, the ABCDMP score, that included the following variables: age > 75 years, BUN > 7 mmol/L, consolidation, diastolic blood pressure ≤ 60 mmHg, mental status altered, and pulse > 109 beats/min. Discrimination (AUC 0.847, 95% CI, 0.805-0.890) and calibration (Hosmer‒Lemeshow statistic, P = 0.142) were good in the derivation cohort and similar in the validation cohort (AUC 0.811, 95% CI, 0.755-0.868). The ABCDMP score had significantly better predictivity for in-hospital mortality than the BAP-65, CURB-65, DECAF, and NIVO scores (all P < 0.001). Additionally, the new score also had moderate predictive performance for 3-year mortality and can be used to stratify patients into different management groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The ABCDMP risk score could help predict mortality in AECOPD and CVDs patients and guide further clinical research on risk-based treatment.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO.:ChiCTR2100044625; URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626 .

Global mortality and readmission rates following COPD exacerbation-related hospitalisation: a meta-analysis of 65 945 individual patients

Background

Exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD) have a major impact on patients and healthcare systems across the world. Precise estimates of the global burden of ECOPD on mortality and hospital readmission are needed to inform policy makers and aid preventive strategies to mitigate this burden. The aims of the present study were to explore global in-hospital mortality, post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission rates after ECOPD-related hospitalisation using an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) design.

Methods

A systematic review was performed identifying studies that reported in-hospital mortality, post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission rates following ECOPD-related hospitalisation. Data analyses were conducted using a one-stage random-effects meta-analysis model. This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA-IPD statement.

Results

Data of 65 945 individual patients with COPD were analysed. The pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 6.2%, pooled 30-, 90- and 365-day post-discharge mortality rates were 1.8%, 5.5% and 10.9%, respectively, and pooled 30-, 90- and 365-day hospital readmission rates were 7.1%, 12.6% and 32.1%, respectively, with noticeable variability between studies and countries. Strongest predictors of mortality and hospital readmission included noninvasive mechanical ventilation and a history of two or more ECOPD-related hospitalisations <12 months prior to the index event.

Conclusions

This IPDMA stresses the poor outcomes and high heterogeneity of ECOPD-related hospitalisation across the world. Whilst global standardisation of the management and follow-up of ECOPD-related hospitalisation should be at the heart of future implementation research, policy makers should focus on reimbursing evidence-based therapies that decrease (recurrent) ECOPD.

[Epidemiology and hospitalization costs analysis of female inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Beijing from 2013 to 2020]

OBJECTIVE

To study epidemiological characteristics and hospitalization costs of female inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in Beijing.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted to analyze electronic hospitalization summary reports of female inpatients with AECOPD in Beijing from 2013 to 2020. Clinical characteristics (age distribution and comorbidities), epidemiological characteristics (temporal and spatial distribution characteristics), hospi-talization times and costs of patients were described.

RESULTS

A total of 57 911 subjects in 166 hospitals were included in this study, with a mean age of (78.84±8.59) years and the highest number of patients aged 80-89 years (49.06%), followed by patients aged 70-79 years (31.08%), and the lowest number of patients under 50 years (0.41%). The proportions of patients with coronary heart disease, hypertension and heart failure were 30.60%, 30.52% and 26.54% respectively. The median number of daily hospitalizations during the study period was 18 (IQR: 16). The number of daily hospitalizations for AECOPD showed an overall growth trend over the eight years from 2013 to 2020, starting to increase significantly in 2015 and continuing to increase until 2019, then followed by a decline in 2020. The proportion of inpatient admissions was higher in winter and spring (54.09%) than that in summer and autumn (45.91%). The top three districts in terms of the proportion of total inpatient admissions were Xicheng district (14.18%), Chaoyang district (14.12%) and Fengtai district (13.47%). The density of inpatients was relatively high in the western regions, central urban areas and northeastern regions of the city, while the density of inpatients was relatively low in the near suburbs. The median number of hospital days for female patients with AECOPD was 12 days, and the median hospital costs was CNY 20 648.37. Patients from urban areas had longer hospitalization times and higher hospitalization costs than those from suburban areas (P < 0.001). Western medicine expenses accounted for the largest proportion of total hospital expenses (33.32%). During the study period, hospitalization costs exhibited an overall pattern of initial growth, followed by subsequent decline, eventually stabilizing. The differences in hospitalization costs among the patients with different comorbidities were significant.

CONCLUSION

Female hospitalized patients with AECOPD in Beijing were older than 70 years, often complicated by cardiovascular disease. AECOPD occurred mainly in winter and spring, with regional differences. The hospitalization costs were closely associated with the patients' age, comorbidities, and the geographicical region.

Association Between Rome Classification Among Hospitalized Patients With COPD Exacerbations and Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Recently, the Rome proposal updated the definition of exacerbation of COPD (ECOPD). However, such severity grade has not yet demonstrated intermediate-term clinical relevance.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the association between the Rome severity classification and short-term and intermediate-term clinical outcomes?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We retrospectively grouped hospitalized patients with ECOPD according to the Rome severity classification (ie, mild, moderate, severe). Baseline, clinical, microbiologic, gas analysis, and laboratory variables were collected. In addition, data about the length of hospital stay and mortality (in-hospital and a follow-up time line from 6 months until 3 years) were assessed.

RESULTS

Of the 347 hospitalized patients, 39% were categorized as mild, 31% were categorized as moderate, and 30% were categorized as severe. Overall, patients with severe ECOPD had an extended length of hospital stay. Although in-hospital mortality was similar among groups, patients with severe ECOPD presented a worse prognosis in all follow-up time points. The Kaplan-Meier curves show the role of the severe classification in the cumulative survival at 1 and 3 years (Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon test, P = .032 and P = .004, respectively). The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher risk of death at 1 year when patients presented a severe (hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.49-2.65) or moderate grade (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10-1.97) compared with a mild grade. Older patients (aged ≥ 80 years), patients requiring long-term oxygen therapy, or patients reporting previous ECOPD episodes had a higher mortality risk. A BMI between 25 and 29 kg/m2 was associated with a lower risk.

INTERPRETATION

The Rome classification makes it possible to discriminate patients with a worse prognosis (severe or moderate) until a 3-year follow-up.

Association of Red Cell Index and Hospital Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

This study aims to explore the association between red cell index (RCI) and hospital mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients in the intensive care unit.

Patients and Methods

This was a retrospective cohort research. The study included 821 COPD patients. Clinical data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was conducted. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the correlation between RCI and in-hospital mortality. Age, SOFA score, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, congestive heart failure and mechanical ventilation were considered for subgroup analysis.

Results

This study comprised 821 patients, of which 16.5% (124/821) suffered hospital mortality. In the multivariate logistic regression model, RCI was positively associated with hospital mortality, each unit increase in RCI was associated with a 3% increase in hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] =1.03; 95% confidence interval [95CI%] =1.01-1.06). Meanwhile, compare with the lowest RCI group, the highest RCI groups tended to have higher risks of hospital mortality (OR [95% CI] 2.33 [1.27-4.27]). Additionally, subgroup analysis result was persistent among all the groups.

Conclusion

Higher RCI was positively associated with a higher risk of mortality in critically ill patients with COPD. Further investigation is necessary to confirm these findings.

Clinical Outcomes according to Timing to Non Invasive Ventilation Initiation in COPD Patients with Acute Respiratory Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Nighttime and non-working days are characterized by a shortage of dedicated staff and available resources. Previous studies have highlighted that patients admitted during the weekend had higher mortality than patients admitted on weekdays ("weekend effect"). However, most studies have focused on specific conditions and controversial results were reported. We conducted an observational, monocentric, retrospective cohort study, based on data collected prospectively to evaluate the impact of the timing of NIV initiation on clinical outcomes in COPD patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). A total of 266 patients requiring NIV with a time gap between diagnosis of ARF and NIV initiation <48 h were included. Interestingly, 39% of patients were not acidotic (pH = 7.38 ± 0.09 vs. 7.26 ± 0.05, p = 0.003) at the time of NIV initiation. The rate of NIV failure (need for intubation and/or all-cause in-hospital death) was similar among three different scenarios: "daytime" vs. "nighttime", "working" vs. "non-working days", "nighttime or non-working days" vs. "working days at daytime". Patients starting NIV during nighttime had a longer gap to NIV initiation compared to daytime (219 vs. 115 min respectively, p = 0.01), but this did not influence the NIV outcome. These results suggested that in a training center for NIV management, the failure rate did not increase during the "silent" hours.

Hematological Parameters for Predicting Mortality in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

(1) Introduction: COPD is a common and serious condition affecting a significant proportion of the population globally. Patients often suffer from exacerbations which lead to the worsening of their health status and respiratory function, and can often lead to death. Quick and cheap investigations are required that are capable of predicting mortality in patients with acute exacerbations that can be applied in low resource settings. (2) Materials and methods: This was a retrospective study carried out using hospital records of patients admitted for AECOPD from 1 January 2017 to 30 November 2022. Chi-square test (for sex) and Student's t-test were used to look for significant associations. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were plotted and Area Under Curve (AUC) values were calculated for various hematological parameters. Youden's J was used to identify the ideal cut-off with optimal sensitivity and specificity. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify independent hematological predictors of mortality. Kaplan-Meir survival plots for neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with the optimal cut-off were plotted. (3) Results: Amongst the 500 patients, 42 died while 458 survived, giving a mortality rate of 8.4%. NLR had the strongest association with mortality. The cut-off for various parameters were: NLR 14.83 (AUC 0.73), total leukocyte count (TLC) 13,640 cells/mm³ (AUC 0.60), absolute neutrophil count (ANC) 12,556 cells/mm³ (AUC 0.62), derived NLR (dNLR) 9.989 (AUC 0.73), hemoglobin 11.8 mg/dL (AUC 0.59), packed cell volume (PCV) 36.6% (AUC 0.60), and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) 451.32 (AUC 0.55). (4) Conclusions: In patients with acute exacerbation of COPD, NLR was strongly associated with mortality, followed by dNLR. Cox regression identified NLR as an independent predictor of mortality.

COPD Exacerbation: Why It Is Important to Avoid ICU Admission

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Hospitalization due to acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is a relevant health problem both for its impact on disease outcomes and on health system resources. Severe AECOPD causing acute respiratory failure (ARF) often requires admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) with endotracheal intubation and invasive mechanical ventilation. AECOPD also acts as comorbidity in critically ill patients; this condition is associated with poorer prognoses. The prevalence reported in the literature on ICU admission rates ranges from 2 to 19% for AECOPD requiring hospitalization, with an in-hospital mortality rate of 20-40% and a re-hospitalization rate for a new severe event being 18% of the AECOPD cases admitted to ICUs. The prevalence of AECOPD in ICUs is not properly known due to an underestimation of COPD diagnoses and COPD misclassifications in administrative data. Non-invasive ventilation in acute and chronic respiratory failure may prevent AECOPD, reducing ICU admissions and disease mortality, especially when associated with a life-threating episode of hypercapnic ARF. In this review, we report on up to date evidence from the literature, showing how improving the knowledge and management of AECOPD is still a current research issue and clinical need.

Low diastolic blood pressure and adverse outcomes in inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although intensively studied in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the prognostic value of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) has little been elucidated in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This study aimed to reveal the prognostic value of DBP in AECOPD patients.

METHODS

Inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from 10 medical centers in China between September 2017 and July 2021. DBP was measured on admission. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality; invasive mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were secondary outcomes. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable Cox regressions were used to identify independent prognostic factors and calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 13,633 included patients with AECOPD, 197 (1.45%) died during their hospital stay. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that low DBP on admission (<70 mmHg) was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality (HR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.53-3.05, Z = 4.37, P <0.01), invasive mechanical ventilation (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.32-2.05, Z = 19.67, P <0.01), and ICU admission (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.24-1.69, Z = 22.08, P <0.01) in the overall cohort. Similar findings were observed in subgroups with or without CVDs, except for invasive mechanical ventilation in the subgroup with CVDs. When DBP was further categorized in 5-mmHg increments from <50 mmHg to ≥100 mmHg, and 75 to <80 mmHg was taken as reference, HRs for in-hospital mortality increased almost linearly with decreased DBP in the overall cohort and subgroups of patients with CVDs; higher DBP was not associated with the risk of in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

Low on-admission DBP, particularly <70 mmHg, was associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes among inpatients with AECOPD, with or without CVDs, which may serve as a convenient predictor of poor prognosis in these patients.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese Clinical Trail Registry, No. ChiCTR2100044625.

Blood Urea Nitrogen Is Associated with In-Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

Background: Elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level is associated with a higher risk of mortality in various diseases; however, the association between BUN level and in-hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is not known. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between BUN level and in-hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD admitted to the ICU. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, AECOPD patients were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. Multivariate regression was used to elucidate the relationship between BUN level and in-hospital mortality, and propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust confounders. Receiver operating characteristics and Kaplan−Meier curves were used to evaluate the relationship between BUN level and in-hospital mortality. Results: Data from 1201 patients were analyzed. The all-cause in-hospital mortality was 13.7%. BUN levels were significantly higher in non-survivors compared to the survival group before (p < 0.001) and after (p = 0.005) PSM. Multivariate analysis indicated that elevated BUN levels were independently associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality both before (p = 0.002) and after (p = 0.015) PSM. The optimal BUN cut-off value for in-hospital mortality in critical patients with AECOPD before (>23 mg/dL) and after (>22 mg/dL) PSM was comparable. Compared with the low BUN group, the hazard ratio (HR) of the high BUN group was 1.8987 (before PSM) and 1.7358 (after PSM). Conclusions: Higher BUN levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with AECOPD. As a widely available and rapidly measured biomarker, BUN may be useful in the risk stratification of critically ill AECOPD patients. The results need to be verified in prospective studies.

Impact of Acute Exacerbation and Its Phenotypes on the Clinical Outcomes of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Hospitalized Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study

Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are clinically significant events having therapeutic and prognostic consequences. However, there is a lot of variation in its clinical manifestations described by phenotypes. The phenotypes of AECOPD were categorized in this study based on pathology and exposure. In our cross-sectional study, conducted between 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020, the patients were categorized into six groups based on pathology: non-bacterial and non-eosinophilic; bacterial; eosinophilic; bacterial infection with eosinophilia; pneumonia; and bronchiectasis. Further, four groups were classified based on exposure to tobacco smoke (TS), biomass smoke (BMS), both, or no exposure. Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were performed to assess hazard ratios, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to assess survival, which was then compared using the log-rank test. The odds ratio (OR) and independent predictors of ward admission type and length of hospital stay were assessed using binomial logistic regression analyses. Of the 2236 subjects, 2194 were selected. The median age of the cohort was 67.0 (60.0 to 74.0) and 75.2% were males. Mortality rates were higher in females than in males (6.2% vs. 2.3%). AECOPD-B (bacterial infection) subjects [HR 95% CI 6.42 (3.06-13.46)], followed by AECOPD-P (pneumonia) subjects [HR (95% CI: 4.33 (2.01-9.30)], were at higher mortality risk and had a more extended hospital stay (6.0 (4.0 to 9.5) days; 6.0 (4.0 to 10.0). Subjects with TS and BMS-AECOPD [HR 95% CI 7.24 (1.53-34.29)], followed by BMS-AECOPD [HR 95% CI 5.28 (2.46-11.35)], had higher mortality risk. Different phenotypes have different impacts on AECOPD clinical outcomes. A better understanding of AECOPD phenotypes could contribute to developing an algorithm for the precise management of different phenotypes.

Prognostic value of lymphocyte count for in-hospital mortality in patients with severe AECOPD

Background

Patients with severe acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease often have a poor prognosis. Biomarkers can help clinicians personalize the assessment of different patients and mitigate mortality. The present study sought to determine if the lymphocyte count could act as a risk factor for mortality in individuals with severe AECOPD.

Methods

A retrospective study was carried out with 458 cases who had severe AECOPD. For analysis, patients were divided into two groups on the basis of lymphocyte count: < 0.8 × 10⁹/L and ≥ 0.8 × 10⁹/L.

Results

Patients who fulfilled the criteria for inclusion were enrolled, namely 458 with a mean age of 78.2 ± 8.2 years. Of these patients, 175 had a low lymphocyte count. Compared to patients with normal lymphocyte counts, those with low counts were older (79.2 ± 7.4 vs. 77.5 ± 8.6 years, p = 0.036), had lower activities of daily living scores on admission (35.9 ± 27.6 vs. 47.5 ± 17.1, p < 0.001), and had a greater need for home oxygen therapy (84.6 vs. 72.1%, p = 0.002). Patients with low lymphocytes had higher mortality rates during hospitalization (17.1 vs. 7.1%, p = 0.001), longer hospital stay (median [IQR] 16 days [12–26] vs. 14 days [10–20], p = 0.002) and longer time on mechanical ventilation (median [IQR] 11.6 days [5.8–18.7] vs. 10.9 days [3.8–11.6], p < 0.001). The logistic regression analysis showed lymphocyte count < 0.8 × 10⁹/L was an independent risk factor associated with in-hospital mortality (OR 2.74, 95%CI 1.33–5.66, p = 0.006).

Conclusion

Lymphocyte count could act as a predictor of mortality in patients with severe AECOPD.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-02137-1.

Association of Red Cell Index and Adverse Hospitalization Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Acute Exacerbation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Previous studies have shown that the red cell index (RCI) can be considered as a simple and useful method to evaluate respiratory function. However, at present its association with adverse hospitalization outcomes in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is not fully understood. Our study aimed to examine the relationship between adverse hospitalization outcomes and RCI among AECOPD patients.

Patients and Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients from January 2015 to October 2021. In this study, RCI was the independent variable, measured at baseline, and adverse hospitalization outcome was the dependent variable. According to the RCI median (RCI=2.221), we divided 377 patients into two roughly equal groups (188 and 189, respectively). Next, the association between RCI and adverse hospitalization outcomes was explored using multivariable logistic regression models. To identify any non-linear relationship, a generalized additive model (GAM) was employed.

Results

With a total of 377 patients with AECOPD, we divided them into two roughly equal groups to compare the clinical factors and RCI levels. The patients in the higher RCI group showed poorer outcome incidence (18 [9.57%] vs 31 [16.40%]; p = 0.049). After accounting for potential confounders, the results showed that RCI was positively associated with adverse hospitalization outcomes (odds ratio [OR] = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.01-1.32). In addition, a non-linear relationship was detected between RCI and adverse hospitalization outcomes, which had an inflection point of 3.2. There were odds ratios and confidence intervals of 0.8 (0.7-1.0) and 1.3 (1.2-1.4) on the left and right sides of the inflection point, respectively.

Conclusion

The RCI and adverse hospitalization outcomes exhibited a non-linear relationship in the AECOPD patients. RCI is strongly positively correlated with adverse hospitalization outcomes when it was greater than 3.2.

Effect of Macrolide Antibiotics on In-Hospital Mortality Among Acute Exacerbation of COPD Patients: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

Objective

This study aimed to assess whether the short-term use of macrolide antibiotics during hospitalization can reduce in-hospital all-cause mortality compared to non-macrolide treatment in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

Methods

A propensity score (PS) matching analysis was performed using retrospective data from the admission records of AECOPD patients in the medical general ward and medical intensive care unit of a tertiary care center between October 2015 and September 2018. The multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was performed to eliminate residual confounding after the PS analysis.

Results

The mortality rate was 11.1% of 1528 admissions in the PS matching cohort. Approximately 70% of patients had respiratory failure requiring intubation on initial admission, and 34% had pneumonia. Macrolide treatment significantly reduced in-hospital mortality among AECOPD patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval 0.32–0.96; P=0.034). Clarithromycin was the most commonly prescribed macrolide (80%).

Conclusion

Macrolide antibiotics reduced in-hospital mortality in hospitalized AECOPD patients. The combination of antimicrobial and immunomodulatory effects of macrolide treatment could play an essential role.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in intensive care unit

Background

Acute exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (AECOPD) contributes significantly to mortality among patients with COPD in Intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality among AECOPD patients in ICU.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted AECOPD patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Multivariate logistic regression based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to establish the nomogram. Internal validation was performed by a bootstrap resampling approach with 1000 replications. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate its clinical application.

Results

A total of 494 patients were finally included in the study with a mean age of 70.8 years old. 417 (84.4%) patients were in the survivor group and 77 (15.6%) patients were in the non-survivor group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis based on AIC included age, pO₂, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), invasive mechanical ventilation and vasopressor use to construct the nomogram. The adjusted C-index was 0.745 (0.712, 0.778) with good calibration (HL test, P = 0.147). The Kaplan–Meier survival curves revealed a significantly lower survival probability in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). DCA showed that nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

The nomogram developed in this study could help clinicians to stratify AECOPD patients and provide appropriate care in clinical setting.

Effect of Noninvasive Positive Pressure Ventilation on Prognosis and Blood Gas Level in COPD Patients Complicated with Respiratory Failure

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory disease caused by chronic bronchitis, which seriously threatens the life safety of patients. Noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has great advantages in its treatment. Here, we explore the effect of NIPPV on prognosis and blood gas level in COPD patients complicated with respiratory failure (RF). A case control study was retrospectively analyzed, where 36 COPD patients with RF were regarded as the regular group to carry on the routine treatment, and 42 patients were assigned to the research group to carry out the routine treatment plus NIPPV. The monofactorial analysis showed that the overall response rate, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1/FVC in the research group were higher than those in the regular group, while partial pressure of arterial carbondioxide (PaCO₂), posttreatment endotracheal intubation (EI), length of stay (LOS), tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1β, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, and modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scores in the research group were lower than those in the regular group. These results indicated that NIPPV can improve the curative effect of emergency medicine patients with RF, improve BG level and PF, reduce inflammation, and facilitate patient's recovery.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk assessment tools: is one better than the others?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Risk assessment tools are essential in COPD care to help clinicians identify patients at higher risk of accelerated lung function decline, respiratory exacerbations, hospitalizations, and death.

RECENT FINDINGS

Conventional methods of assessing risk have focused on spirometry, patient-reported symptoms, functional status, and a combination of these tools in composite indices. More recently, qualitatively and quantitatively assessed chest imaging findings, such as emphysema, large and small airways disease, and pulmonary vascular abnormalities have been associated with poor long-term outcomes in COPD patients. Although several blood and sputum biomarkers have been investigated for risk assessment in COPD, most still warrant further validation. Finally, novel remote digital monitoring technologies may be valuable to predict exacerbations but their large-scale performance, ease of implementation, and cost effectiveness remain to be determined.

SUMMARY

Given the complex heterogeneity of COPD, any single metric is unlikely to fully capture the risk of poor long-term outcomes. Therefore, clinicians should review all available clinical data, including spirometry, symptom severity, functional status, chest imaging, and bloodwork, to guide personalized preventive care of COPD patients. The potential of machine learning tools and remote monitoring technologies to refine COPD risk assessment is promising but remains largely untapped pending further investigation.

Statins Associated with Better Long-Term Outcomes in Aged Hospitalized Patients with COPD: A Real-World Experience from Pay-for-Performance Program

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death globally. Previous studies have addressed the impact of comorbidity on short-term mortality in patients with COPD. However, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the association of statins prescription with mortality for aged COPD patients remains unclear. We enrolled 296 aged, hospitalized patients who were monitored in the pay-for-performance (P-4-P) program of COPD. Factors associated with long-term mortality were identified by Cox regression analysis. The median age of the study cohort was 80 years old, and the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and statins prescriptions were 16.6% and 31.4%, respectively. The mortality rate of the median 3-year follow-up was 51.4%. Through multivariate analysis, body mass index (BMI), statin prescription, and events of respiratory failure were associated with long-term mortality. A Cox analysis showed that statins prescription was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio (HR): 0.5, 95% Confident interval, 95% CI: 0.34–0.73, p = 0.0004) and subgroup analysis showed that rosuvastatin prescription had protective effect on long-term mortality (HR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.20–0.97; p < 0.05). Statin prescriptions might be associated with better long-term survival in aged COPD patients, especially those who experienced an acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) who require hospitalization.