Mapping the spatial distribution of the Japanese encephalitis vector, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles, 1901 (Diptera: Culicidae) within areas of Japanese encephalitis risk

Population genetic structure of Culex tritaeniorhynchus in different types of climatic zones in China

BACKGROUND

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is widely distributed in China, from Hainan Island in the south to Heilongjiang in the north, covering tropical, subtropical, and temperate climate zones. Culex tritaeniorhynchus carries 19 types of arboviruses. It is the main vector of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), posing a serious threat to human health. Understanding the effects of environmental factors on Culex tritaeniorhynchus can provide important insights into its population structure or isolation patterns, which is currently unclear.

RESULTS

In total, 138 COI haplotypes were detected in the 552 amplified sequences, and the haplotype diversity (Hd) value increased from temperate (0.534) to tropical (0.979) regions. The haplotype phylogeny analysis revealed that the haplotypes were divided into two high-support evolutionary branches. Temperate populations were predominantly distributed in evolutionary branch II, showing some genetic isolation from tropical/subtropical populations and less gene flow between groups. The neutral test results of HNQH (Qionghai) and HNHK(Haikou) populations were negative (P < 0.05), indicating many low-frequency mutations in the populations and that the populations might be in the process of expansion. Moreover, Wolbachia infection was detected only in SDJN (Jining) (2.24%), and all Wolbachia genotypes belonged to supergroup B. To understand the influence of environmental factors on mosquito-borne viruses, we examined the prevalence of Culex tritaeniorhynchus infection in three ecological environments in Shandong Province. We discovered that the incidence of JEV infection was notably greater in Culex tritaeniorhynchus from lotus ponds compared to those from irrigation canal regions. In this study, the overall JEV infection rate was 15.27 per 1000, suggesting the current risk of Japanese encephalitis outbreaks in Shandong Province.

CONCLUSIONS

Tropical and subtropical populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus showed higher genetic diversity and those climatic conditions provide great advantages for the establishment and expansion of Culex tritaeniorhynchus. There are differences in JEV infection rates in wild populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus under different ecological conditions. Our results suggest a complex interplay of genetic differentiation, population structure, and environmental factors in shaping the dynamics of Culex tritaeniorhynchus. The low prevalence of Wolbachia in wild populations may reflect the recent presence of Wolbachia invasion in Culex tritaeniorhynchus.

Population Genetics of Culex tritaeniorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Türkiye

PURPOSE

Mosquitoes are important vectors of pathogens that can affect humans and animals. Culex tritaeniorhynchus is an important vector of arboviruses such as Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus among various human and animal communities. These diseases are of major public health concern and can have huge economic and health burdens in prevalent countries. Although populations of this important mosquito species have been detected in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions of Türkiye; little is known about its population structure. Our study is to examine the population genetics and genetic composition of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus mosquitoes collected from several localities using cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 genes (ND5). This is the first extensive study of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the mainland Türkiye with sampling spanning many of provinces.

METHODS

In this study, DNA extraction, amplification of mitochondrial COI and ND5 genes and population genetic analyses were performed on ten geographic populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus in the Aegean and Mediterranean region of Türkiye.

RESULTS

Between 2019 and 2020, 96 samples were collected from 10 geographic populations in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions; they were molecularly analyzed and 139 sequences (50 sequence for COI and 89 sequence for ND5) were used to determine the population structure and genetic diversity. For ND5 gene region, the samples produced 24 haplotypes derived from 15 variable sites and for COI gene region, 43 haplotypes were derived from 17 variable sites. The haplotype for both gene regions was higher than nucleotide diversity. Haplotype phylogeny revealed two groups present in all populations. AMOVA test results show that the geographical populations were the same for all gene regions. Results suggest that Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is a native population in Türkiye, the species is progressing towards speciation and there is no genetic differentiation between provinces and regions.

CONCLUSION

This study provides useful information on the molecular identifcation and genetic diversity of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus; these results are important to improve mosquito control programs.

Genome and evolution of Tibet orbivirus, TIBOV (genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae)

Tibet orbivirus (TIBOV) was first isolated from Anopheles maculatus mosquitoes in Xizang, China, in 2009. In recent years, more TIBOV strains have been isolated in several provinces across China, Japan, East Asia, and Nepal, South Asia. Furthermore, TIBOVs have also been isolated from Culex mosquitoes, and several midge species. Additionally, TIBOV neutralizing antibodies have been detected in serum specimens from several mammals, including cattle, sheep, and pigs. All of the evidence suggests that the geographical distribution of TIBOVs has significantly expanded in recent years, with an increased number of vector species involved in its transmission. Moreover, the virus demonstrated infectivity towards a variety of animals. Although TIBOV is considered an emerging orbivirus, detailed reports on its genome and molecular evolution are currently lacking. Thus, this study performed the whole-genome nucleotide sequencing of three TIBOV isolates from mosquitoes and midges collected in China in 2009, 2011, and 2019. Furthermore, the genome and molecular genetic evolution of TIBOVs isolated from different countries, periods, and hosts (mosquitoes, midges, and cattle) was systematically analyzed. The results revealed no molecular specificity among TIBOVs isolated from different countries, periods, and vectors. Meanwhile, the time-scaled phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of TIBOV appeared approximately 797 years ago (95% HPD: 16-2347) and subsequently differentiated at least three times, resulting in three distinct genotypes. The evolutionary rate of TIBOVs was about 2.12 × 10-3 nucleotide substitutions per site per year (s/s/y) (95% HPD: 3.07 × 10-5, 9.63 × 10-3), which is similar to that of the bluetongue virus (BTV), also in the Orbivirus genus. Structural analyses of the viral proteins revealed that the three-dimensional structures of the outer capsid proteins of TIBOV and BTV were similar. These results suggest that TIBOV is a newly discovered and rapidly evolving virus transmitted by various blood-sucking insects. Given the potential public health burden of this virus and its high infectious rate in a wide range of animals, it is significant to strengthen research on the genetic variation of TIBOVs in blood-feeding insects and mammals in the natural environment and the infection status in animals.

Regulation of microglia-mediated inflammation by host lncRNA Gm20559 upon flaviviral infection

BACKGROUND

Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) and West Nile Viruses (WNV) are neurotropic flaviviruses which cause neuronal death and exaggerated glial activation in the central nervous system. Role of host long non coding RNAs in shaping microglial inflammation upon flavivirus infections has been unexplored. This study attempted to decipher the role of lncRNA Gm20559 in regulating microglial inflammatory response in context of flaviviruses.

METHODS

Antisense oligonucleotide LNA Gapmers designed against lncRNA Gm20559 and non-specific site (negative control) were used for Gm20559 knockdown in JEV and WNV-infected N9 microglial cells. Upon establishing successful Gm20559 knockdown, expression of various proinflammatory cytokines, chemokines, interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) and RIG-I were checked by qRT-PCR and cytometric bead array. Western Blotting was done to analyse the phosphorylation level of various inflammatory markers and viral non-structural protein expression. Plaque Assays were employed to quantify viral titres in microglial supernatant upon knocking down Gm20559. Effect of microglial supernatant on HT22 neuronal cells was assessed by checking expression of apoptotic protein and viral non-structural protein by Western Blotting.

RESULTS

Upregulation in Gm20559 expression was observed in BALB/c pup brains, primary microglia as well as N9 microglia cell line upon both JEV and WNV infection. Knockdown of Gm20559 in JEV and WNV-infected N9 cell led to the reduction of major proinflammatory cytokines - IL-1β, IL-6, IP-10 and IFN-β. Inhibition of Gm20559 upon JEV infection in N9 microglia also led to downregulation of RIG-I and OAS-2, which was not the case in WNV-infected N9 microglia. Phosphorylation level of P38 MAPK was reduced in case of JEV-infected N9 microglia and not WNV-infected N9 microglia. Whereas phosphorylation of NF-κB pathway was unchanged upon Gm20559 knockdown in both JEV and WNV-infected N9 microglia. However, treating HT22 cells with JEV and WNV-infected microglial supernatant with and without Gm20559 could not trigger cell death or influence viral replication.

CONCLUSION

Knockdown studies on lncRNA Gm20559 suggests its pivotal role in maintaining the inflammatory milieu of microglia in flaviviral infection by modulating the expression of various pro-inflammatory cytokines. However, Gm20559-induced increased microglial proinflammatory response upon flavivirus infection fails to trigger neuronal death.

Shift in dominant genotypes of Japanese encephalitis virus and its impact on current vaccination strategies

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a zoonotic ailment from the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). JEV belongs to the flavivirus genus and is categorized into a solitary serotype consisting of five genetically diverse genotypes (I, II, III, IV, and V). The JEV genotype III (GIII) was the prevailing strain responsible for multiple outbreaks in countries endemic to JEV until 1990. In recent years, significant improvements have occurred in the epidemiology of JE, encompassing the geographical expansion of the epidemic zone and the displacement of prevailing genotypes. The dominant genotype of the JEV has undergone a progressive shift from GIII to GI due to variations in its adaptability within avian populations. From 2021 to 2022, Australia encountered an epidemic of viral encephalitis resulting from infection with the GIV JEV pathogen. The current human viral encephalitis caused by GIV JEV is the initial outbreak since its initial discovery in Indonesia during the late 1970s. Furthermore, following a time frame of 50 years, the detection and isolation of GV JEV have been reported in Culex mosquitoes across China and South Korea. Evidence suggests that the prevalence of GIV and GV JEV epidemic regions may be on the rise, posing a significant threat to public safety and the sustainable growth of animal husbandry. The global approach to preventing and managing JE predominantly revolves around utilizing the GIII strain vaccine for vaccination purposes. Nevertheless, research has demonstrated that the antibodies generated by the GIII strain vaccine exhibit limited capacity to neutralize the GI and GV strains. Consequently, these antibodies cannot protect against JEV challenge caused by animal GI and GV strains. The limited cross-protective and neutralizing effects observed between various genotypes may be attributed to the low homology of the E protein with other genotypes. In addition, due to the GIV JEV outbreak in Australia, further experiments are needed to evaluate the protective efficiency of the current GIII based JE vaccine against GIV JEV. The alteration of the prevailing genotype of JEV and the subsequent enlargement of the geographical extent of the epidemic have presented novel obstacles in JE prevention and control. This paper examines the emerging features of the JE epidemic in recent years and the associated problems concerning prevention and control.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

The spatio-temporal distribution of acute encephalitis syndrome and its association with climate and landcover in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) differs in its spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam with the highest incidence seen during the summer months in the northern provinces. AES has multiple aetiologies, and the cause remains unknown in many cases. While vector-borne disease such as Japanese encephalitis and dengue virus and non-vector-borne diseases such as influenza and enterovirus show evidence of seasonality, associations with climate variables and the spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam differs between these. The aim of this study was therefore to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of, and risk factors for AES in Vietnam to help hypothesise the aetiology.

METHODS

The number of monthly cases per province for AES, meningitis and diseases including dengue fever; influenza-like-illness (ILI); hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); and Streptococcus suis were obtained from the General Department for Preventive Medicine (GDPM) from 1998-2016. Covariates including climate, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, the number of pigs, socio-demographics, JEV vaccination coverage and the number of hospitals were also collected. Spatio-temporal multivariable mixed-effects negative binomial Bayesian models with an outcome of the number of cases of AES, a combination of the covariates and harmonic terms to determine the magnitude of seasonality were developed.

RESULTS

The national monthly incidence of AES declined by 63.3% over the study period. However, incidence increased in some provinces, particularly in the Northwest region. In northern Vietnam, the incidence peaked in the summer months in contrast to the southern provinces where incidence remained relatively constant throughout the year. The incidence of meningitis, ILI and S. suis infection; temperature, relative humidity with no lag, NDVI at a lag of one month, and the number of pigs per 100,000 population were positively associated with the number of cases of AES in all models in which these covariates were included.

CONCLUSIONS

The positive correlation of AES with temperature and humidity suggest that a number of cases may be due to vector-borne diseases, suggesting a need to focus on vaccination campaigns. However, further surveillance and research are recommended to investigate other possible aetiologies such as S. suis or Orientia tsutsugamushi.

Detection of Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles and Novel Recombinant Strain of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Causes High Mortality in Yaks

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is capable of causing transboundary diseases characterized by fever, nodules on the skin, mucous membranes, and inner organs. The disease may cause emaciation with the enlargement of lymph nodes and sometimes death. It has had endemic importance in various parts of Asia in recent years, causing substantial economic losses to the cattle industry. The current study reported a suspected LSDV infection (based on signs and symptoms) from a mixed farm of yak and cattle in Sichuan Province, China. The clinical samples were found positive for LSDV using qPCR and ELISA, while LSDV DNA was detected in Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles. The complete genome sequence of China/LSDV/SiC/2021 was determined by Next-generation sequencing. It was found that China/LSDV/SiC/2021 is highly homologous to the novel vaccine-related recombinant LSDV currently emerging in China and countries surrounding China. Phylogenetic tree analysis revealed that the novel vaccine-associated recombinant LSDV formed a unique dendrograms topology between field and vaccine-associated strains. China/LSDV/SiC/2021 was found to be a novel recombinant strain, with at least 18 recombination events via field viruses identified in the genome sequence. These results suggest that recombinant LSDV can cause high mortality in yaks, and its transmission might be due to the Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles, which acts as a mechanical vector.

Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and has a wide global distribution. However, the current and future geographic distribution maps of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in global are still incomplete. Our study aims to predict the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in current and future conditions to provide a guideline for the formation and implementation of vector control strategies all over the world. We collected and screened the information on the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by searching the literature and online databases and used ten algorithms to investigate its global distribution and impact factors. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus had been detected in 41 countries from 5 continents. The final ensemble model (TSS = 0.864 and AUC = 0.982) indicated that human footprint was the most important factor for the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The tropics and subtropics, including southeastern Asia, Central Africa, southeastern North America and eastern South America, showed high habitat suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is predicted to have a wider distribution in all the continents, especially in Western Europe and South America in the future under two extreme emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6). Targeted strategies for the control and prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus should be further strengthened.

Detection of L1014F knockdown resistance mutation in Culex tritaeniorhynchus populations

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is a major Japanese encephalitis virus vector distributed in Southeast Asia and surrounding countries. The aim of the present study is to investigate insecticide resistance status among 10 Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations of the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Bioassay results indicated that all of the populations were resistant or at least possibly resistant to 1,1'-(2,2,2-Trichloroethane-1,1-diyl) bis (4-chlorobenzene) (DDT) (4%), [(dimethoxyphosphorothioyl) sulfanyl] butanedioate, Diethyl (malathion) (5%), and 2-[(Propan-2-yl) oxy] phenyl methylcarbamate (propoxur) (0,1%). Whereas, some of the populations were still susceptible to 3-Phenoxybenzyl (1RS)-cis, trans-3-(2,2-dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethyl cyclopropane carboxylate (permethrin) (0,75%) and (S)-Cyano (3-phenoxy phenyl) methyl (1R,3R)-3-(2,2-dibromoethen-1-yl)-2,2-dimethylcyclopropane-1-carboxylate (deltamethrin) (0,05%). Biochemical analysis results showed altered alpha esterase, beta esterase, para-nitrophenyl acetate (PNPA), and glutathione-s-transferase (GST) levels in some populations while all of the populations had increased oxidase levels except for the Yumurtalık population. Additionally, all of the populations had sensitive acetylcholinesterase (AChE) levels similar to the control group except for the Erzin population. Correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between mortality rates for deltamethrin and alpha esterase, beta esterase, PNPA, and GST levels while mortality rates for permethrin were significantly correlated with GST levels. An allele-specific polymerase chain reaction (AS-PCR) detected high L1014F allele frequency in the populations. Overall results indicate the urgent need for monitoring and mapping of insecticide resistance in Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations of the study area for effective vector control management.

Changing Paradigm in the epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in India

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a very serious public health problem in India and the conducive environment permit its emergence in non-endemic areas in the country. There are constant changes taking place in the pattern of current agricultural practices and vector breeding habitats which had far-reaching consequences on the epidemiology of JE and the severity of epidemic outbreaks today. Due to the continuous ecological changes taking place, vectors changed in their breeding dynamics, feeding, and resting behavior and started invading previously non-endemic areas. JE has recently spread to new territories due to land-use changes, including forest fragmentation and concentrated livestock production. Changes in the livestock population decreased the cattle pig ratio which enhanced the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infection. This review brings forth the present widespread changes encountered that grossly impact the risk of infection in many places for the emergence of Japanese encephalitis and to address the implications for its control.

Emerging Japanese Encephalitis Virus Genotype V in Republic of Korea

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vaccine-preventable mosquito-borne disease caused by infection with the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). JEV has five genotypes, including genotype V (GV), which is considered ancestral to the other genotypes. The first GV strain, GV Muar, was isolated from a Malayan patient in 1952 and GV did not reappear for 57 years until GV XZ0934 was isolated from a mosquito sample in China. Since 2010, 21 GV strains have been identified in Republic of Korea (ROK). Both GV Muar and GV XZ0934 are more pathogenic than other GI/GIII strains and are serologically distinct. However, because the ROK's GV strains have not been experimentally tested, their characteristics are not known. Characterization of the ROK's isolates is needed to enable development of effective GV strain-based vaccines to protect against GV infections.

Spatial statistical and environmental correlation analyses on vector density, vector infection index and Japanese encephalitis cases at the village and pigsty levels in Liyi County, Shanxi Province, China

Background

In the eco-epidemiological context of Japanese encephalitis (JE), geo-environmental features influence the spatial spread of the vector (Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Giles 1901) density, vector infection, and JE cases.

Methods

In Liyi County, Shanxi Province, China, the spatial autocorrelation of mosquito vector density, vector infection indices, and JE cases were investigated at the pigsty and village scales. The map and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) remote sensing databases on township JE cases and geo-environmental features were combined in a Geographic Information System (GIS), and the connections among these variables were analyzed with regression and spatial analyses.

Results

At the pigsty level, the vector density but not the infection index of the vector was spatially autocorrelated. For the pigsty vector density, the cotton field area was positively related, whereas the road length and the distance between pigsties and gullies were negatively related. In addition, the vector infection index was correlated with the pigsty vector density (PVD) and the number of pigs. At the village level, the vector density, vector infection index, and number of JE cases were not spatially autocorrelated. In the study area, the geo-environmental features, vector density, vector infection index, and JE case number comprised the Geo-Environment-Vector-JE (GEVJ) intercorrelation net system. In this system, pig abundance and cotton area were positive factors influencing the vector density first. Second, the infection index was primarily influenced by the vector density. Lastly, the JE case number was determined by the vector infection index and the wheat area.

Conclusions

This study provided quantitative associations among geo-environmental features, vectors, and the incidence of JE in study sties, one typical northern Chinese JE epidemiological area without rice cultivation. The results highlighted the importance of using a diverse range of environmental management methods to control mosquito disease vectors and provided useful information for improving the control of vector mosquitoes and reducing the incidence of JE in the northern Chinese agricultural context.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05305-8.

Re-Examining the Importance of Pigs in the Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis Virus

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, is the leading cause of pediatric encephalitis in Southeast Asia. The enzootic transmission of JEV involves two types of amplifying hosts, swine and avian species. The involvement of pigs in the transmission cycle makes JEV a unique pathogen because human Japanese encephalitis cases are frequently linked to the epizootic spillover from pigs, which can not only develop viremia to sustain transmission but also signs of neurotropic and reproductive disease. The existing knowledge of the epidemiology of JEV largely suggests that viremic pigs are a source of infectious viruses for competent mosquito species, especially Culex tritaeniorhynchus in the endemic regions. However, several recently published studies that applied molecular detection techniques to the characterization of JEV pathogenesis in pigs described the shedding of JEV through multiple routes and persistent infection, both of which have not been reported in the past. These findings warrant a re-examination of the role that pigs are playing in the transmission and maintenance of JEV. In this review, we summarize discoveries on the shedding of JEV during the course of infection and analyze the available published evidence to discuss the possible role of the vector-free JEV transmission route among pigs in viral maintenance.

High-risk landscapes of Japanese encephalitis virus outbreaks in India converge on wetlands, rain-fed agriculture, wild Ardeidae, and domestic pigs and chickens

Background

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus that causes a significant burden of disease across Asia, particularly in India, with high mortality in children. JEV circulates in wild ardeid birds and domestic pig reservoirs, both of which generate sufficiently high viraemias to infect vector mosquitoes, which can then subsequently infect humans. The landscapes of these hosts, particularly in the context of anthropogenic ecotones and resulting wildlife–livestock interfaces, are poorly understood and thus significant knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of JEV persist. This study sought to investigate the landscape epidemiology of JEV outbreaks in India over the period 2010–2020 to determine the influence of shared wetland and rain-fed agricultural landscapes and animal hosts on outbreak risk.

Methods

Using surveillance data from India’s National Centre for Disease Control Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, JEV outbreaks were modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson point process and externally validated against independently sourced data.

Results

Outbreak risk was strongly associated with the habitat suitability of ardeid birds, both pig and chicken density, and the shared landscapes between fragmented rain-fed agriculture and both river and freshwater marsh wetlands.

Conclusion

The results from this work provide the most complete understanding of the landscape epidemiology of JEV in India to date and suggest important One Health priorities for control and prevention across fragmented terrain comprising a wildlife–livestock interface that favours spillover to humans.

Joint spatiotemporal modelling reveals seasonally dynamic patterns of Japanese encephalitis vector abundance across India

Predicting vector abundance and seasonality, key components of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) hazard, is essential to determine hotspots of MBD risk and target interventions effectively. Japanese encephalitis (JE), an important MBD, is a leading cause of viral encephalopathy in Asia with 100,000 cases estimated annually, but data on the principal vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus is lacking. We developed a Bayesian joint-likelihood model that combined information from available vector occurrence and abundance data to predict seasonal vector abundance for C. tritaeniorhynchus (a constituent of JE hazard) across India, as well as examining the environmental drivers of these patterns. Using data collated from 57 locations from 24 studies, we find distinct seasonal and spatial patterns of JE vector abundance influenced by climatic and land use factors. Lagged precipitation, temperature and land use intensity metrics for rice crop cultivation were the main drivers of vector abundance, independent of seasonal, or spatial variation. The inclusion of environmental factors and a seasonal term improved model prediction accuracy (mean absolute error [MAE] for random cross validation = 0.48) compared to a baseline model representative of static hazard predictions (MAE = 0.95), signalling the importance of seasonal environmental conditions in predicting JE vector abundance. Vector abundance varied widely across India with high abundance predicted in northern, north-eastern, eastern, and southern regions, although this ranged from seasonal (e.g., Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal) to perennial (e.g., Assam, Tamil Nadu). One-month lagged predicted vector abundance was a significant predictor of JE outbreaks (odds ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.52–4.08), highlighting the possible development of vector abundance as a proxy for JE hazard. We demonstrate a novel approach that leverages information from sparse vector surveillance data to predict seasonal vector abundance–a key component of JE hazard–over large spatial scales, providing decision-makers with better guidance for targeting vector surveillance and control efforts.

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalopathy in Asia with an estimated 100,000 annual cases and 25,000 deaths. However, insufficient data on the predominant mosquito vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus–a key component of JE hazard–precludes hazard estimation required to target public health interventions. Previous studies have provided limited estimates of JE hazard, often predicting geographic distributions of potential vector occurrence without accounting for vector abundance, seasonality, or uncertainty in predictions. This study details a novel approach to predict spatiotemporal patterns in JE vector abundance using a joint-likelihood modelling technique that leverages information from sparse vector surveillance data. We showed that patterns in JE vector abundance were driven by seasonality and environmental factors and so demonstrated the limitations of previously available static vector distribution maps in estimating the vector population component of JE hazard. One-month lagged vector abundance predictions showed a positive relationship with JE outbreaks, signalling the potential use of vector abundance as a proxy for JE hazard. While vector surveillance data are limited, joint-likelihood models offer a useful approach to inform vector abundance predictions. This study provides decision-makers with a more complete picture of the distribution of JE vector abundance and can be used to target vector surveillance and control efforts and enhance the allocation of resources.

Genetic structure of Culex tritaeniorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae) based on COI DNA barcodes

Culex tritaeniorhynchus Gile is a major vector of Japanese encephalitis in China. The population genetics study is crucial as it helps understanding the epidemiological aspects of mosquito-brone diseases and improving vector control measures. Here, the genetic population structure of C. tritaeniorhynchus in the mainland China were estimated using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) DNA barcodes region. 485 individuals of C. tritaeniorhynchus were collected from 38 sampling sites in 21 geographic populations in the mainland China. In total, 485 sequences were used to explore the population structure and genetic diversity. The results showed that the populations of C. tritaeniorhynchus had high haplotype diversity (Hd = 0.98, with 303 haplotypes), low nucleotide diversity (p = 0.02245) and high gene flow (Nm = 47.11) with two maternal lineages and four groups. An AMOVA indicated that 98.8% of the total variation originated from variation within populations. In addition, the population genetic structure exhibited by C. tritaeniorhynchus filling the vacant of the genetic structure in the mainland China. Human activities may also assist mosquito movement and migration. Gene flow among the populations of C. tritaeniorhynchus can facilitate the spread of insecticide resistance genes over geographical areas, and it will be a challenging for controlling the populations.

Mapping environmental suitability of Haemagogus and Sabethes spp. mosquitoes to understand sylvatic transmission risk of yellow fever virus in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Yellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.

The Ecology and Evolution of Japanese Encephalitis Virus

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus mainly spread by Culex mosquitoes that currently has a geographic distribution across most of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Infection with JEV can cause Japanese encephalitis (JE), a severe disease with a high mortality rate, which also results in ongoing sequalae in many survivors. The natural reservoir of JEV is ardeid wading birds, such as egrets and herons, but pigs commonly play an important role as an amplifying host during outbreaks in human populations. Other domestic animals and wildlife have been detected as hosts for JEV, but their role in the ecology and epidemiology of JEV is uncertain. Safe and effective JEV vaccines are available, but unfortunately, their use remains low in most endemic countries where they are most needed. Increased surveillance and diagnosis of JE is required as climate change and social disruption are likely to facilitate further geographical expansion of Culex vectors and JE risk areas.

The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1,543.1 million (range: 1,292.6-2,019.9 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents only 37.7% (range: 31.6-53.5%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 56,847 (95% CI: 18,003-184,525) JE cases and 20,642 (95% CI: 2,252-77,204) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 81,258 (95% CI: 25,437-273,640) cases and 29,520 (95% CI: 3,334-112,498) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 314,793 (95% CI: 94,566-1,049,645) cases and 114,946 (95% CI: 11,421-431,224) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 204,734 (95% CI: 74,419-664,871) cases and 74,893 (95% CI: 8,989-286,239) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.2%) and Malaysia (80.1%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.

Japanese encephalitis is a vector-transmitted, zoonotic disease that is endemic throughout a large portion of Asia. Vaccination has significantly reduced the JE burden in several formerly high-burden countries, but vaccination coverage remains limited in several other countries with high JE burdens. A better understanding of both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of the burden in endemic countries is critical for future disease prevention efforts. To estimate the number of people living in areas within Asia suitable for JEV transmission we conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE. We estimate that over one billion people live in areas suitable for local JEV transmission. We then combined these population-at-risk estimates with estimates of the force of infection (FOI) to model the national-level burden of JE (annual cases and deaths) over the past decade. Increases in vaccination coverage have reduced JE incidence from over 80,000 cases in 2010 to fewer than 57,000 cases in 2019. We estimate that vaccination has prevented almost 315,000 cases and 115,000 deaths in the past decade. Our results also call attention to the countries, and high-risk areas within countries, where increases in vaccination coverage are most needed.

Detection of the Japanese encephalitis vector mosquito Culex tritaeniorhynchus in Australia using molecular diagnostics and morphology

Background

Culex (Culex) tritaeniorhynchus is an important vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) affecting feral pigs, native mammals and humans. The mosquito species is widely distributed throughout Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe, and thought to be absent in Australia.

Methods

In February and May, 2020 the Medical Entomology unit of the Northern Territory (NT) Top End Health Service collected Cx. tritaeniorhynchus female specimens (n = 19) from the Darwin and Katherine regions. Specimens were preliminarily identified morphologically as the Vishnui subgroup in subgenus Culex. Molecular identification was performed using cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) barcoding, including sequence percentage identity using BLAST and tree-based identification using maximum likelihood analysis in the IQ-TREE software package. Once identified using COI, specimens were reanalysed for diagnostic morphological characters to inform a new taxonomic key to related species from the NT.

Results

Sequence percentage analysis of COI revealed that specimens from the NT shared 99.7% nucleotide identity to a haplotype of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from Dili, Timor-Leste. The phylogenetic analysis showed that the NT specimens formed a monophyletic clade with other Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. We provide COI barcodes for most NT species from the Vishnui subgroup to aid future identifications, including the first genetic sequences for Culex (Culex) crinicauda and the undescribed species Culex (Culex) sp. No. 32 of Marks. Useful diagnostic morphological characters were identified and are presented in a taxonomic key to adult females to separate Cx. tritaeniorhynchus from other members of the Vishnui subgroup from the NT.

Conclusions

We report the detection of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in Australia from the Darwin and Katherine regions of the NT. The vector is likely to be already established in northern Australia, given the wide geographical spread throughout the Top End of the NT. The establishment of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in Australia is a concern to health officials as the species is an important vector of JEV and is now the sixth species from the subgenus Culex capable of vectoring JEV in Australia. We suggest that the species must now be continuously monitored during routine mosquito surveillance programmes to determine its current geographical spread and prevent the potential transmission of exotic JEV throughout Australia.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04911-2.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Mosquito Vector Competence for Japanese Encephalitis Virus

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic pathogen mainly found in East and Southeast Asia and transmitted by mosquitoes. The objective of this review is to summarize the knowledge on the diversity of JEV mosquito vector species. Therefore, we systematically analyzed reports of JEV found in field-caught mosquitoes as well as experimental vector competence studies. Based on the investigated publications, we classified 14 species as confirmed vectors for JEV due to their documented experimental vector competence and evidence of JEV found in wild mosquitoes. Additionally, we identified 11 mosquito species, belonging to five genera, with an experimentally confirmed vector competence for JEV but lacking evidence on their JEV transmission capacity from field-caught mosquitoes. Our study highlights the diversity of confirmed and potential JEV vector species. We also emphasize the variety in the study design of vector competence investigations. To account for the diversity of the vector species and regional circumstances, JEV vector competence should be studied in the local context, using local mosquitoes with local virus strains under local climate conditions to achieve reliable data. In addition, harmonization of the design of vector competence experiments would lead to better comparable data, informing vector and disease control measures.

Spatial distribution of Culex mosquito abundance and associated risk factors in Hanoi, Vietnam

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the major cause of viral encephalitis (VE) in most Asian-Pacific countries. In Vietnam, there is no nationwide surveillance system for JE due to lack of medical facilities and diagnoses. Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Culex vishnui, and Culex quinquefasciatus have been identified as the major JE vectors in Vietnam. The main objective of this study was to forecast a risk map of Culex mosquitoes in Hanoi, which is one of the most densely populated cities in Vietnam. A total of 10,775 female adult Culex mosquitoes were collected from 513 trapping locations. We collected temperature and precipitation information during the study period and its preceding month. In addition, the other predictor variables (e.g., normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI], land use/land cover and human population density), were collected for our analysis. The final model selected for estimating the Culex mosquito abundance included centered rainfall, quadratic term rainfall, rice cover ratio, forest cover ratio, and human population density variables. The estimated spatial distribution of Culex mosquito abundance ranged from 0 to more than 150 mosquitoes per 900m2. Our model estimated that 87% of the Hanoi area had an abundance of mosquitoes from 0 to 50, whereas approximately 1.2% of the area showed more than 100 mosquitoes, which was mostly in the rural/peri-urban districts. Our findings provide better insight into understanding the spatial distribution of Culex mosquitoes and its associated environmental risk factors. Such information can assist local clinicians and public health policymakers to identify potential areas of risk for JE virus. Risk maps can be an efficient way of raising public awareness about the virus and further preventive measures need to be considered in order to prevent outbreaks and onwards transmission of JE virus.

Host-Feeding Preference and Diel Activity of Mosquito Vectors of the Japanese Encephalitis Virus in Rural Cambodia

Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is the most important cause of human encephalitis in Southeast Asia, and this zoonosis is mainly transmitted from pigs to human by mosquitoes. A better understanding of the host-feeding preference of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) major vectors is crucial for identifying risk areas, defining bridge vector species and targeting adapted vector control strategies. To assess host-feeding preference of JE vectors in a rural Cambodian area where JE is known to circulate, in 2017, we implemented four sessions of mosquito trapping (March, June, September, December), during five consecutive nights, collecting four times a night (6 p.m. to 6 a.m.), and using five baited traps simultaneously, i.e., cow, chicken, pig, human, and a blank one for control. In addition, blood meals of 157 engorged females trapped at the same location were opportunistically analyzed with polymerase chain reaction (PCR), using cow, pig, human, and dog blood primers. More than 95% of the 36,709 trapped mosquitoes were potential JE vectors. These vectors were trapped in large numbers throughout the year, including during the dry season, and from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. Despite the apparent host-feeding preference of Culex vishnui, Cx. gelidus, and Cx. tritaenhyorhincus for cows, statistical analysis suggested that the primary target of these three mosquito species were pigs. Dog blood was detected in eight mosquitoes of the 157 tested, showing that mosquitoes also bite dogs, and suggesting that dogs may be used as proxy of the risk for human to get infected by JE virus.

Changes in Rice and Livestock Production and the Potential Emergence of Japanese Encephalitis in Africa

The known distribution of Japanese encephalitis (JE) is limited to Asia and Australasia. However, autochthonous transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus was reported in Africa for the first time in 2016. Reasons for the current geographic restriction of JE and the circumstances that may permit emergence in non-endemic areas are not well known. Here, I assess potential changes in vector breeding habitat and livestock production in Africa that are conducive to JEV transmission, using open-source data available from the Food and Agriculture Organization between 1961 and 2019. For 16 of 57 countries in Africa, there was evidence of existing, or an increase in, conditions potentially suitable for JE emergence. This comprised the area used for rice production and the predicted proportion of blood meals on pigs. Angola, where autochthonous transmission was reported, was one of these 16 countries. Studies to better quantify the role of alternative hosts, including domestic birds in transmission in endemic regions, would help to determine the potential for emergence elsewhere. In Africa, surveillance programs for arboviruses should not rule out the possibility of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) circulation in areas with high pig or bird density coincident with Culicine breeding habitats.

Implementation of geographical information systems for the study of diseases caused by vector-borne arboviruses in Southeast Asia: A review based on the publication record

The spread of mosquito-borne diseases in Southeast Asia has dramatically increased in the latest decades. These infections include dengue, chikungunya and Japanese Encephalitis (JE), high-burden viruses sharing overlapping disease manifestation and vector distribution. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to monitor the dynamics of disease and vector distribution can assist in disease epidemic prediction and public health interventions, particularly in Southeast Asia where sustained high temperatures drive the epidemic spread of these mosquito-borne viruses. Due to lack of accurate data, the spatial and temporal dynamics of these mosquito-borne viral disease transmission countries are poorly understood, which has limited disease control effort. By following studies carried out on these three viruses across the region in a specific time period revealing general patterns of research activities and characteristics, this review finds the need to improve decision-support by disease mapping and management. The results presented, based on a publication search with respect to diseases due to arboviruses, specifically dengue, chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis, should improve opportunities for future studies on the implementation of GIS in the control of mosquito-borne viral diseases in Southeast Asia.

Estimates of the global burden of Japanese encephalitis and the impact of vaccination from 2000-2015

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne disease, known for its high mortality and disability rate among symptomatic cases. Many effective vaccines are available for JE, and the use of a recently developed and inexpensive vaccine, SA 14-14-2, has been increasing over the recent years particularly with Gavi support. Estimates of the local burden and the past impact of vaccination are therefore increasingly needed, but difficult due to the limitations of JE surveillance. In this study, we implemented a mathematical modelling method (catalytic model) combined with age-stratifed case data from our systematic review which can overcome some of these limitations. We estimate in 2015 JEV infections caused 100,308 JE cases (95% CI: 61,720-157,522) and 25,125 deaths (95% CI: 14,550-46,031) globally, and that between 2000 and 2015 307,774 JE cases (95% CI: 167,442-509,583) were averted due to vaccination globally. Our results highlight areas that could have the greatest benefit from starting vaccination or from scaling up existing programs and will be of use to support local and international policymakers in making vaccine allocation decisions.

Population dynamics, pathogen detection and insecticide resistance of mosquito and sand fly in refugee camps, Greece

BACKGROUND

As of 2015 thousands of refugees are being hosted in temporary refugee camps in Greece. Displaced populations, travelling and living under poor conditions with limited access to healthcare are at a high risk of exposure to vector borne disease (VBD). This study sought to evaluate the risk for VBD transmission within refugee camps in Greece by analyzing the mosquito and sand fly populations present, in light of designing effective and efficient context specific vector and disease control programs.

METHODS

A vector/pathogen surveillance network targeting mosquitoes and sand flies was deployed in four temporary refugee camps in Greece. Sample collections were conducted bi-weekly during June-September 2017 with the use of Centers for Disease Control (CDC) light traps and oviposition traps. Using conventional and molecular diagnostic tools we investigated the mosquito/sand fly species composition, population dynamics, pathogen infection rates, and insecticide resistance status in the major vector species.

RESULTS

Important disease vectors including Anopheles sacharovi, Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus and the Leishmania vectors Phlebotomus neglectus, P. perfiliewi and P. tobbi were recorded in the study refugee camps. No mosquito pathogens (Plasmodium parasites, flaviviruses) were detected in the analysed samples yet high sand fly Leishmania infection rates are reported. Culex pipiens mosquitoes displayed relatively high knock down resistance (kdr) mutation allelic frequencies (ranging from 41.0 to 63.3%) while kdr mutations were also detected in Ae. albopictus populations, but not in Anopheles and sand fly specimens. No diflubenzuron (DFB) mutations were detected in any of the mosquito species analysed.

CONCLUSIONS

Important disease vectors and pathogens in vectors (Leishmania spp.) were recorded in the refugee camps indicating a situational risk factor for disease transmission. The Cx. pipiens and Ae. albopictus kdr mutation frequencies recorded pose a potential threat against the effectiveness of pyrethroid insecticides in these settings. In contrast, pyrethroids appear suitable for the control of Anopheles mosquitoes and sand flies and DFB for Cx. pipiens and Ae. albopictus larvicide applications. Targeted actions ensuring adequate living conditions and the establishment of integrated vector-borne disease surveillance programs in refugee settlements are essential for protecting refugee populations against VBDs.

Ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of Culicoides, potential vectors of bluetongue virus in Senegal

BACKGROUND

Vector-borne diseases are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. In the Afrotropical region, some are transmitted by Culicoides, such as Akabane, bluetongue, epizootic haemorrhagic fever and African horse sickness viruses. Bluetongue virus infection has an enormous impact on ruminant production, due to its high morbidity and mortality rates.

METHODS

A nationwide Culicoides trapping campaign was organized at the end of the 2012 rainy season in Senegal. A Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method and Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were used to develop a predictive spatial model for the distribution of Culicoides, using bio-climatic variables, livestock densities and altitude.

RESULTS

The altitude, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter and livestock density were among the most important factors to predict suitable habitats of Culicoides. Culicoides occurrences were, in most of the cases, positively correlated to precipitation variables and livestock densities; and negatively correlated to the altitude and temperature indices. The Niayes area and the Groundnut basin were the most suitable habitats predicted.

CONCLUSION

We present ecological niche models for different Culicoides species, namely C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini and C. miombo, potential vectors of bluetongue virus, on a nationwide scale in Senegal. Through our modelling approach, we were able to determine the effect of bioclimatic variables on Culicoides habitats and were able to generate maps for the occurrence of Culicoides species. This information will be helpful in developing risk maps for disease outbreaks.

The effect of global change on mosquito-borne disease

More than 80% of the global population is at risk of a vector-borne disease, with mosquito-borne diseases being the largest contributor to human vector-borne disease burden. Although many global processes, such as land-use and socioeconomic change, are thought to affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics, research to date has strongly focused on the role of climate change. Here, we show, through a review of contemporary modelling studies, that no consensus on how future changes in climatic conditions will impact mosquito-borne diseases exists, possibly due to interacting effects of other global change processes, which are often excluded from analyses. We conclude that research should not focus solely on the role of climate change but instead consider growing evidence for additional factors that modulate disease risk. Furthermore, future research should adopt new technologies, including developments in remote sensing and system dynamics modelling techniques, to enable a better understanding and mitigation of mosquito-borne diseases in a changing world.

Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?

Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.

Mapping the potential distributions of etiological agent, vectors, and reservoirs of Japanese Encephalitis in Asia and Australia

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a substantial cause of viral encephalitis, morbidity, and mortality in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. World Health Organization recognized Japanese Encephalitis (JE) as a public health priority in demands to initiate active vaccination programs. Recently, the geographic distribution of JEV has apparently expanded into other areas in the Pacific islands and northern Australia; however, major gaps exist in knowledge in regard to its current distribution. Here, we mapped the potential distribution of mosquito vectors of JEV (Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Cx. pseudovishnui, Cx. vishnui, Cx. fuscocephala, Cx. gelidus), and reservoirs (Egretta garzetta, E. intermedia, Nycticorax nycticorax) based on ecological niche modeling approach. Ecological niche models predicted all species to occur across Central, South and South East Asia; however, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, E. garzetta, E. intermedia, and N. nycticorax had broader potential distributions extending west to parts of the Arabian Peninsula. All predictions were robust and significantly better than random (P < 0.001). We also tested the JEV prediction based on 4335 additional independent human case records collected by the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP); 4075 cases were successfully predicted by the model (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the ecological niche similarity among JEV, vector, and reservoir species and could not reject any of the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all combination pairs.

Influence of Host and Environmental Factors on the Distribution of the Japanese Encephalitis Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus in China

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is an important vector that transmits a variety of human and animal diseases. Japanese encephalitis (JE), an endemic disease in the Asia-Pacific region, is primarily transmitted by Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Insufficient monitoring of vector mosquitoes has led to a poor understanding of the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China. To delineate the habitat of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and any host and environmental factors that affect its distribution, we used a maximum entropy modeling method to predict its distribution in China. Our models provided high resolution predictions on the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The predicted suitable habitats of the JE vector were correlated with areas of high JE incidence in parts of China. Factors driving the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China were also revealed by our models. Furthermore, human population density and the maximum NDVI were the most important predictors in our models. Bioclimate factors and elevation also significantly impacted the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Our findings may serve as a reference for vector and disease control.

Mapping Disease Transmission Risk of Nipah Virus in South and Southeast Asia

Since 1998, Nipah virus (NiV) (genus: Henipavirus; family: Paramyxoviridae), an often-fatal and highly virulent zoonotic pathogen, has caused sporadic outbreak events. Fruit bats from the genus Pteropus are the wildlife reservoirs and have a broad distribution throughout South and Southeast Asia, and East Africa. Understanding the disease biogeography of NiV is critical to comprehending the potential geographic distribution of this dangerous zoonosis. This study implemented the R packages ENMeval and BIOMOD2 as a means of modeling regional disease transmission risk and additionally measured niche similarity between the reservoir Pteropus and the ecological characteristics of outbreak localities with the Schoener's D index and I statistic. Results indicate a relatively high degree of niche overlap between models in geographic and environmental space (D statistic, 0.64; and I statistic, 0.89), and a potential geographic distribution encompassing 19% (2,963,178 km²) of South and Southeast Asia. This study should contribute to current and future efforts to understand the critical ecological contributors and geography of NiV. Furthermore, this study can be used as a geospatial guide to identify areas of high disease transmission risk and to inform national public health surveillance programs.

Overview of Japanese encephalitis disease and its prevention. Focus on IC51 vaccine (IXIARO®)

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). JEV is transmitted by mosquitoes to a wide range of vertebrate hosts, including birds and mammals. Domestic animals, especially pigs, are generally implicated as reservoirs of the virus, while humans are not part of the natural transmission cycle and cannot pass the virus to other hosts. Although JEV infection is very common in endemic areas (many countries in Asia), less than 1% of people affected develop clinical disease, and severe disease affects about 1 case per 250 JEV infections. Although rare, severe disease can be devastating; among the 30,000-50,000 global cases per year, approximately 20-30% of patients die and 30-50% of survivors develop significant neurological sequelae. JE is a significant public health problem for residents in endemic areas and may constitute a substantial risk for travelers to these areas. The epidemiology of JE and its risk to travelers have changed, and continue to evolve. The rapid economic growth of Asian countries has led to a surge in both inbound and outbound travel, making Asia the second most-visited region in the world after Europe, with 279 million international travelers in 2015. The top destination is China, followed by Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan, and the number of travelers is forecast to reach 535 million by 2030 (+ 4.9% per year). Because of the lack of treatment and the infeasibility of eliminating the vector, vaccination is recognized as the most efficacious means of preventing JE. The IC51 vaccine (IXIARO^®) is a purified, inactivated, whole virus vaccine against JE. It is safe, well tolerated, efficacious and can be administered to children, adults and the elderly. The vaccination schedule involves administering 2 doses four weeks apart. For adults, a rapid schedule (0-7 days) is available, which could greatly enhance the feasibility of its use. Healthcare workers should inform both short- and long-term travelers of the risk of JE in each period of the year and recommend vaccination. Indeed, it has been shown that short-term travelers are also at risk, not only in rural environments, but also in cities and coastal towns, especially in tourist localities where excursions to country areas are organized.

Comparing pseudo-absences generation techniques in Boosted Regression Trees models for conservation purposes: A case study on amphibians in a protected area

Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) is one of the modelling techniques most recently applied to biodiversity conservation and it can be implemented with presence-only data through the generation of artificial absences (pseudo-absences). In this paper, three pseudo-absences generation techniques are compared, namely the generation of pseudo-absences within target-group background (TGB), testing both the weighted (WTGB) and unweighted (UTGB) scheme, and the generation at random (RDM), evaluating their performance and applicability in distribution modelling and species conservation. The choice of the target group fell on amphibians, because of their rapid decline worldwide and the frequent lack of guidelines for conservation strategies and regional-scale planning, which instead could be provided through an appropriate implementation of SDMs. Bufo bufo, Salamandrina perspicillata and Triturus carnifex were considered as target species, in order to perform our analysis with species having different ecological and distributional characteristics. The study area is the "Gran Sasso-Monti della Laga" National Park, which hosts 15 Natura 2000 sites and represents one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Our results show that the model calibration ameliorates when using the target-group based pseudo-absences compared to the random ones, especially when applying the WTGB. Contrarily, model discrimination did not significantly vary in a consistent way among the three approaches with respect to the tree target species. Both WTGB and RDM clearly isolate the highly contributing variables, supplying many relevant indications for species conservation actions. Moreover, the assessment of pairwise variable interactions and their three-dimensional visualization further increase the amount of useful information for protected areas' managers. Finally, we suggest the use of RDM as an admissible alternative when it is not possible to individuate a suitable set of species as a representative target-group from which the pseudo-absences can be generated.