What can we learn from Israel's rapid roll out of COVID 19 vaccination?

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

BACKGROUND

Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control.

METHODS

To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc).

RESULTS

A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (-0.81 and -0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (-0.03), Israel (-0.12), Italy (-0.02), and France (-0.03); all p < 0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.

Vaccine Hesitancy and the Concept of Trust: An Analysis Based on the Israeli COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign

This paper examines the trust relations involved in Israel's COVID-19 vaccination campaign, focusing on vaccine hesitancy and the concept of 'trust'. The first section offers a conceptual analysis of 'trust'. Instead of analyzing trust in the vaccination campaign as a whole, a few objects of trust are identified and examined. In section two, the Israeli vaccination campaign is presented, and the focus is placed on vaccine hesitancy. In section three, different trust relations are examined: public trust in the Israeli government and health institutions, interpersonal trust in healthcare professionals and experts, trust in the pharmaceutical companies that make the COVID-19 vaccine, the US FDA, and trust in the new vaccine and the new technology. Through this complexity of trust relations, I argue that it is impossible to completely separate the trust that the vaccine is safe and effective from social aspects of mistrust. Additionally, practices of silencing and censoring the concerns of vaccine hesitaters - both experts and among the public, are pointed out. I contend that these cases further minimize vaccine hesitaters' trust in vaccine-related entities. In contrast, in section four, I suggest the 'trust-based approach': since vaccine hesitancy is not solely the result of knowledge deficiency but also a lack of trust relations, any campaign that addresses vaccine hesitancy should also focus on trust. The advantages of this approach are spelled out. For governments, a discussion based on trust is, ultimately, the best democratic way to encourage hesitaters to take the plunge and get vaccinated.

Investigating the Marginal and Herd Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination for Reducing Case Fatality Rate: Evidence from the United States between March 2021 to January 2022

Vaccination campaigns have been rolled out in most countries to increase vaccination coverage and protect against case mortality during the ongoing pandemic. To evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination, it is vital to disentangle the herd effect from the marginal effect and parameterize them separately in a model. To demonstrate this, we study the relationship between the COVID-19 vaccination coverage and case fatality rate (CFR) based on U.S. vaccination coverage at county level, with daily records from 11 March 2021 to 26 January 2022 for 3109 U.S. counties. Using segmented regression, we discovered three breakpoints of the vaccination coverage, at which herd effects could potentially exist. Controlling for county heterogeneity, we found the size of the marginal effect was not constant but actually increased as the vaccination coverage increased, and only the herd effect at the first breakpoint to be statistically significant, which implied an indirect benefit of vaccination may exist at the early stage of a vaccination campaign. Our results demonstrated that public-health researchers should carefully differentiate and quantify the herd and marginal effects when analyzing vaccination data, to better inform vaccination-campaign strategies as well as evaluate vaccination effectiveness.

Covid-19 vaccine roll-out in England: A qualitative evaluation

BACKGROUND

The UK was the first country to launch a national pandemic COVID-19 vaccination programme, which was implemented swiftly despite significant vaccine supply constraints. The delivery strategy used a combination of mass vaccination sites operated by NHS secondary care providers and local sites led by Primary Care Networks, and local pharmacies. Despite nation-wide rollout, persistent gaps in coverage continued to affect particular populations, including ethnic minority and marginalised social groups.

AIM

The study examined sub-national immunisation commissioners and providers' perspectives on how the COVID-19 vaccine programme was operationalised, and how delivery strategies impacted inequalities in access to vaccination services and uptake. The study aimed to inform national programme implementation, sustainability and future pandemic preparedness.

METHODS

Qualitative research was conducted in eight local NHS areas in 4 regions of England. Semi-structured interviews were performed with 82 sub-national NHS and public health vaccine providers and commissioners.

RESULTS

England's COVID-19 vaccination programme was described as top down, centralised and highly political. The programme gradually morphed from a predominantly mass vaccination strategy into more locally driven and tailored approaches able to respond more effectively to inequalities in uptake. Over time more flexibility was introduced, as providers adapted services by "working around" the national systems for vaccine supply and appointment booking. The constant change faced by providers and commissioners was mitigated by high staff motivation and resilience, local collaboration and pragmatism. Opportunities for efficient implementation were missed because priority was given to achieving national performance targets at the expense of a more flexible sub-national tailored delivery.

CONCLUSION

Pandemic vaccination delivery models need to be adapted for underserved and hesitant groups, working in collaboration with local actors. Learnings from the initial COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in England and elsewhere is important to inform future pandemic responses, in tailoring strategies to local communities, and improve large-scale vaccination programmes.

Risk factors, clinical characteristics and prognostic value of acute kidney injury in COVID-19 compared with influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus

BACKGROUND

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) complicates a substantial part of patients with COVID-19. Direct viral penetration of renal cells through the Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 receptor, and indirect damage by the aberrant inflammatory response characteristic of COVID-19 are likely mechanisms. Nevertheless, other common respiratory viruses such as Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) are also associated with AKI.

METHODS

We retrospectively compared the incidence, risk factors and outcomes of AKI among patients who were admitted to a tertiary hospital because of infection with COVID-19, influenza (A + B) or RSV.

RESULTS

We collected data of 2593 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 2041 patients with influenza and 429 with RSV. Patients affected by RSV were older, had more comorbidities and presented with higher rates of AKI at admission and within 7 days (11.7% vs. 13.3% vs. 18% for COVID-19, influenza and RSV, respectively p = 0.001). Nevertheless, patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had higher mortality (18% with COVID-19 vs. 8.6% and 13.5% for influenza and RSV, respectively P < 0.001) and higher need of mechanical ventilation (12.4% vs. 6.5% vs.8.2% for COVID-19, influenza and RSV, respectively, P = 0.002). High ferritin levels and low oxygen saturation were independent risk factors for severe AKI only in the COVID-19 group. AKI in the first 48 h of admission and in the first 7 days of hospitalization were strong independent risk factors for adverse outcome in all groups.

CONCLUSION

Despite many reports of direct kidney injury by SARS-COV-2, AKI was less in patients with COVID-19 compared to influenza and RSV patients. AKI was a prognostic marker for adverse outcome across all viruses.

What is the role of primary care in the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out and the barriers and facilitators to an equitable vaccine roll-out? A rapid scoping review of nine jurisdictions

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to: (1) examine the experience of nine global jurisdictions that engaged primary care providers (PCPs) to administer COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic; (2) describe how vaccine hesitancy and principles of equity were incorporated in the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out strategies and (3) identify the barriers and facilitators to the vaccine roll-out.

DESIGN

Rapid scoping review.

DATA SOURCES

Searches took place in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, the Cochrane Library, SCOPUS and PsycINFO, Google, and the websites of national health departments. Searches and analyses took place from May 2021 to July 2021.

RESULTS

Sixty-two documents met the inclusion criteria (35=grey literature; 56% and 27=peer reviewed; 44%). This review found that the vaccine distribution approach started at hospitals in almost all jurisdictions. In some jurisdictions, PCPs were engaged at the beginning, and the majority included PCPs over time. In many jurisdictions, equity was considered in the prioritisation policies for various marginalised communities. However, vaccine hesitancy was not explicitly considered in the design of vaccine distribution approaches. The barriers to the roll-out of vaccines included personal, organisational and contextual factors. The vaccine roll-out strategy was facilitated by establishing policies and processes for pandemic preparedness, well-established and coordinated information systems, primary care interventions, adequate supply of providers, education and training of providers, and effective communications strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Empirical evidence is lacking on the impact of a primary care-led vaccine distribution approach on vaccine hesitancy, adoption and equity. Future vaccine distribution approaches need to be informed by further research evaluating vaccine distribution approaches and their impact on patient and population outcomes.

The whole-of-society approach of mass COVID-19 vaccination in China: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Many countries have an inefficient vaccination system, which hinders global exit from the COVID-19 pandemic. It is vital to summarize COVID-19 vaccination practices in countries with high vaccination coverage and provide implications for other countries. This study aimed to investigate China's COVID-19 vaccination system and to summarize its implementation experience from a health system perspective.

METHODS

We conducted key informant interviews in five representative cities of China in late 2021. Guided by the health systems framework proposed by WHO, we developed our interview guidelines which included seven building blocks-leadership and governance, health workforce, vaccination service delivery, vaccination mobilization and communication, financing, access to vaccines, and information systems. Semi-structured interviews and COVID-19 vaccination policy documents were collected and coded using a thematic analysis approach.

RESULTS

A total of 61 participants (nine vaccination programme directors of the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention, four government staff and 48 vaccination service workers) were interviewed. We found that China adopted a whole-of-society approach with adequate government engagement and linked health and non-health sectors to promote COVID-19 vaccination. Key measures included the collaboration of multiple systems and departments from a governance perspective, allocating sufficient health workers and resources, large-scale vaccination mobilization and communication, expansion of vaccine financing channels, localized production and digital information systems. With the vaccination system strengthening, the two-doses vaccination coverage reached 89.5% for the total population but relatively lower coverage for older adults as of July 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the importance of a government-led whole-of-society approach to promote mass vaccination. The low vaccination coverage among older adults should be paid the greatest attention to. The experiences and lessons from China may serve as a reference for other countries.

A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study on the Risk of Getting Sick with COVID-19, the Course of the Disease, and the Impact of the National Vaccination Program against SARS-CoV-2 on Vaccination among Health Professionals in Poland

Six months after starting the National Vaccination Program against COVID-19, a cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted among 1200 salaried and non-salaried healthcare workers (HCWs) in Poland. Its aim was to assess factors including the risk of exposure to COVID-19, experiences with COVID-19, the trust in different sources of knowledge about the pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, and the government campaign on vaccination as predictors of vaccination acceptance. The strongest awareness of a high risk of work-associated infection was demonstrated by doctors (D) (72.6%) and nurses and midwives (N) (64.8%); however, almost half of the medical students (MS) and nursing and midwifery students (NS) did not identify as a risk group. Out of several dozen variables related to sociodemographic characteristics and personal experience of COVID-19, only occupation, previous COVID-19 infection, and high stress seemed to significantly influence vaccination acceptance. Interestingly, only 6.7% of respondents admitted that the government campaign impacted their decision to vaccinate. This result is not surprising considering that the vast majority of respondents (87.8%) learned about vaccinations from sources such as academic lectures (29.9%), health professionals (29.0%), or the internet (28.9%). Those who gained information about vaccination from traditional media (radio, television, and daily press), a popular platform of the government campaign, had a lower propensity to vaccinate (OR = 0.16, p < 0.001). Additionally, almost twice as many considered the information provided in the campaign to be unreliable. Our findings, from this retrospective study, do not confirm that the government campaign was effective for healthcare professionals. Therefore, in this group, other forms of vaccination incentives should be sought. However, the vaccinated respondents were significantly more likely to support compulsory vaccination against COVID-19 among health professionals.

COVID-19-Related Anxiety Symptoms among Quarantined Adolescents and Its Impact on Sleep Pattern Changes and Somatic Symptoms

Background: Home-quarantine due to COVID-19 may have negative psychological effects on vulnerable sub-groups such as children and adolescents. We aimed to explore the prevalence of anxiety among adolescents who were in home-quarantine and its impact on onset of sleep disturbance and somatic symptoms, and on the level of agreement between adolescent and parent perceptions. Methods: Five hundred adolescents (ages 10–17) and 500 parents participated in the study. Adolescents filled out PROMIS Anxiety, PROMIS Sleep Disturbance, and PHQ-15 Physical-Symptom forms, while their parents completed proxy questionnaires containing the same domains. Results: 38% of the adolescents reported experiencing anxiety during home-quarantine period, 29% suffered from sleep disturbance, and 48% reported somatic symptoms. Addition of one day in home-quarantine was significantly associated with sleep disturbance (OR = 3.78, 95%CI: 1.09–8.45) and somatic symptoms (OR = 1.80, 95%CI: 1.01–3.08); female gender was associated with increased risk for somatic symptoms (OR = 2.15, 95%CI: 1.07–4.55); poor agreement in levels of anxiety, sleep disturbance and somatic symptoms was found between adolescent and parent reports (ICCs of 0.197–0.262). Discussion: Total isolation from household members during home-quarantine may cause anxiety, sleep disturbance, and somatization among adolescents. Achieving the appropriate balance between infection control and mitigation of the potential adverse psychological effect of home-quarantine among children and adolescents should be immediate priorities for policymakers.

[Combination of COVID-19 vaccines and their efficacy: a theoretical proposalCombinação de vacinas contra a COVID-19 e sua eficácia: uma proposta teórica]

In the face of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the entire world is concerned with achieving desired herd immunity to overcome the current health crisis. Estimating the efficacy that could be attained in a population by combining vaccines of different brands or technologies would be a valuable asset for public health decision-makers in the present pandemic and in similar future scenarios. This article provides a mathematical formula to estimate probable efficacy against COVID-19 when administering two vaccines in a specific population. These vaccines, given in a series, could be of different technologies and brands.

Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.

Open science communication: the first year of the UK's Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a light on the complex relationship between science and policy. Policymakers have had to make decisions at speed in conditions of uncertainty, implementing policies that have had profound consequences for people's lives. Yet this process has sometimes been characterised by fragmentation, opacity and a disconnect between evidence and policy. In the United Kingdom, concerns about the secrecy that initially surrounded this process led to the creation of Independent SAGE, an unofficial group of scientists from different disciplines that came together to ask policy-relevant questions, review the evolving evidence, and make evidence-based recommendations. The group took a public health approach with a population perspective, worked in a holistic transdisciplinary way, and were committed to public engagement. In this paper, we review the lessons learned during its first year. These include the importance of learning from local expertise, the value of learning from other countries, the role of civil society as a critical friend to government, finding appropriate relationships between science and policy, and recognising the necessity of viewing issues through an equity lens.

Sharing reflections and expressing appreciation upon completing a decade as co-editor of the IJHPR

The Israel Journal of Health Policy Research (IJHPR) was launched in January 2012. In December 2021 it will be completing 10 years of continuous publication. I have had the privilege of serving as the journal’s co-editor in chief during this period, and after ten years of service I am now preparing to step down from that role. IJHPR achievements of which I am particularly proud include remaining true to its mission, attracting manuscripts from virtually all the Israeli institutions engaged in health policy research as well as many leading institutions abroad, widening the circle of Israeli professionals who are submitting manuscripts to journals, and helping many established Israeli academics expand their repertoires to include articles with strong policy components. Several people and organizations have helped make editing the IJHPR such a wonderful experience for me. They include IJHPR co-editor Avi Israeli, IJHPR associate editor Steve Schoenbaum, the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research (which sponsors the journal), BioMed Central (which publishes the journal), the Myers-JDC-Brookdale Institute (my employer), my family (and particularly my wife, Laura Rosen), and the thousands of authors who have chosen to publish with the IJHPR. May the journal’s second decade be even better than its first one!

A platform for the international exchange of ideas: the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research celebrates its first decade

For ten years the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research has provided a platform for exchange of knowledge and insights on health policy. It is a unique attempt by scholars and practitioners in one small country to share their knowledge with the world and, in turn to learn from experience elsewhere. Never has this role been as important as during the COVID pandemic, a message that is very clear when we look at failings elsewhere.

SARS-CoV-2, Zika viruses and mycoplasma: Structure, pathogenesis and some treatment options in these emerging viral and bacterial infectious diseases

The molecular evolution of life on earth along with changing environmental, conditions has rendered mankind susceptible to endemic and pandemic emerging infectious diseases. The effects of certain systemic viral and bacterial infections on morbidity and mortality are considered as examples of recent emerging infections. Here we will focus on three examples of infections that are important in pregnancy and early childhood: SARS-CoV-2 virus, Zika virus, and Mycoplasma species. The basic structural characteristics of these infectious agents will be examined, along with their general pathogenic mechanisms. Coronavirus infections, such as caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, likely evolved from zoonotic bat viruses to infect humans and cause a pandemic that has been the biggest challenge for humanity since the Spanish Flu pandemic of the early 20th century. In contrast, Zika Virus infections represent an expanding infectious threat in the context of global climate change. The relationship of these infections to pregnancy, the vertical transmission and neurological sequels make these viruses highly relevant to the topics of this special issue. Finally, mycoplasmal infections have been present before mankind evolved, but they were rarely identified as human pathogens until recently, and they are now recognized as important coinfections that are able to modify the course and prognosis of various infectious diseases and other chronic illnesses. The infectious processes caused by these intracellular microorganisms are examined as well as some general aspects of their pathogeneses, clinical presentations, and diagnoses. We will finally consider examples of treatments that have been used to reduce morbidity and mortality of these infections and discuss briefly the current status of vaccines, in particular, against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is important to understand some of the basic features of these emerging infectious diseases and the pathogens involved in order to better appreciate the contributions of this special issue on how infectious diseases can affect human pregnancy, fetuses and neonates.

Research into policy: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic

There has been an unprecedented global effort by researchers from many disciplines to obtain and synthesize knowledge to inform policy responses to SARS-CoV-2. While many major advances have been made in generating and applying knowledge on a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen, some things could have been done better, as revealed by the devastating loss of life and economic impact on livelihoods and communities. We reflect on the context in which the pandemic emerged, characterized by underinvestment in public health and growing distrust in institutions, followed by an overview of three broad areas: generation of new knowledge, synthesis of existing knowledge, both what was known prior to the pandemic and what emerged during it, and the challenges of translating knowledge into policy. We also consider areas that were largely overlooked in the research effort. Across all areas, we aim to draw out relevant lessons for future research and public health practice.

Barriers to COVID-19 vaccination among medical students in Kazakhstan: development, validation, and use of a new COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Scale

The purpose of this study was to identify the main barriers to vaccine acceptance among medical students in Kazakhstan and to develop the COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Scale (COV-VHS). A cross-sectional study was carried out among students at Astana Medical University (N = 888, Kazakhstan) in March 2021. Only 2% of the participants were currently vaccinated, and 22.4% showed the potential for COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. The following barriers were the most important in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance: concern about possible side effects of vaccination (73%), absence of sufficient evidence on the effectiveness and safety (57%) and quality (42%), the belief that the immune system will cope with COVID-19 even without vaccination (38%), and lack of trust in the effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19 (33%). Moreover, this study identified the following factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine acceptance: contextual influences (e.g., communication and media environment, socio-demographic factors, vaccination policies, and perception of the pharmaceutical industry), individual and group influences (e.g., personal experience with vaccination, attitudes about health and prevention, trust in the health system and providers, perceived risk), and specific issues on COVID-19 vaccine/vaccination (e.g., choice of vaccine can reduce vaccine hesitancy by 30%). A developed 12-item 6-factor model of COV-VHS showed good validity and reliability. In conclusion, there was a low-level potential for COVID-19 vaccine acceptance among medical students in Kazakhstan. Thus, an effective vaccination education and policy are needed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Global Health Security Index is not predictive of vaccine rollout responses among OECD countries

Objective: This study sought to evaluate the utility of the Global Health Security (GHS) index in predicting the launch of COVID-19 vaccine rollout by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries.

Methods: Country-level data on the preparedness to respond to infectious disease threats through vaccination rollout were collected using the GHS index. OECD member countries were rank-ordered based on the percentage of their populations fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Rank-ordering was conducted from the lowest to the highest, with each country assigned a score ranging from 1 to 33. Spearman's rank correlation between the GHS index and the percentage of the population that is fully vaccinated was also performed.

Results: Israel, ranked 34^th in the world on the GHS index for pandemic preparedness, had the highest percentage of the population that was fully vaccinated against COVID-19 within 2 months of the global vaccine rollout. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient between GHS index and the percentage of population fully vaccinated was -0.1378, with a p-value of 0.43.

Conclusion: The findings suggest an absence of correlation between the GHS index rating and the COVID-19 vaccine rollout of OECD countries, indicating that the preparedness of OECD countries for infectious disease threats may not be accurately reflected by the GHS index.

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socioeconomics, surveillance, and policy responses. Here, we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines, a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak.

METHODS

We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a "Minimum Health Standards" policy, MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and interventions.

FINDINGS

Population age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 13-27%. The February 2021 case detection rate was estimated at ~8%, population recovered at ~9%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, mobility, and MHS adherence. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS should help the Philippines control the epidemic until vaccines are widely distributed, but disease resurgence may be occurring due to a combination of low population immunity and detection rates and new variants of concern.

Determinants of access to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: a preliminary approach

BACKGROUND

The determinants of access to immunizers are still poorly understood, leading to questions about which criteria were considered in this distribution. Given the above, the present study aimed to analyze the determinants of access to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine by different countries.

METHODS

The study covered 189 countries using data from different public databases, and collected until February 19, 2021. We used eight explanatory variables: gross domestic product (GDP), extreme poverty, human development index (HDI), life expectancy, median age, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, COVID-19 tests, and COVID-19 deaths. The endogenous variables were total vaccine doses, vaccine doses per thousand, and days of vaccination. The structural equation modeling (SEM) technique was applied to establish the causal relationship between the country's COVID-19 impact, socioeconomic variables, and vaccine access. To support SEM, we used confirmatory factor analysis, t-test, and Pearson's correlation.

RESULTS

We collected the sample on February 19, and to date, 80 countries (42.1%) had already received a batch of immunizers against COVID-19. The countries with first access to the vaccine (e.g., number of days elapsed since they took the first dose) were the United Kingdom (68), China (68), Russia (66), and Israel (62). The countries receiving the highest doses were the United States, China, India, and Israel. The countries with extreme poverty had lower access to vaccines and the richer countries gained priority access. Countries most affected by COVID (deaths and cases) also received immunizers earlier and in greater volumes. Unfortunately, similar to other vaccines, indicators, such as income, poverty, and human development, influence vaccines' access. Thus affecting the population of vulnerable and less protected countries. Therefore, global initiatives for the equitable distribution of COVID need to be discussed and encouraged.

CONCLUSIONS

Determinants of vaccine distribution consider the impact of the disease in the country and are also affected by favorable socioeconomic indicators. The COVID-19 vaccines need to be accessible to all affected countries, regardless of their social hands.

Addressing vaccine hesitancy and access barriers to achieve persistent progress in Israel's COVID-19 vaccination program

As of March 31, 2021, Israel had administered 116 doses of vaccine for COVID-19 per 100 population (of any age) - far more than any other OECD country. It was also ahead of other OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that had received at least one vaccination (61%) and the share that had been fully vaccinated (55%). Among Israelis aged 16 and over, the comparable figures were 81 and 74%, respectively. In light of this, the objectives of this article are: 1. To describe and analyze the vaccination uptake through the end of March 2021 2. To identify behavioral and other barriers that likely affected desire or ability to be vaccinated 3. To describe the efforts undertaken to overcome those barriers Israel's vaccination campaign was launched on December 20, and within 2.5 weeks, 20% of Israelis had received their first dose. Afterwards, the pace slowed. It took an additional 4 weeks to increase from 20 to 40% and yet another 6 weeks to increase from 40 to 60%. Initially, uptake was low among young adults, and two religious/cultural minority groups - ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli Arabs, but their uptake increased markedly over time.In the first quarter of 2021, Israel had to enhance access to the vaccine, address a moderate amount of vaccine hesitancy in its general population, and also address more intense pockets of vaccine hesitancy among young adults and religious/cultural minority groups. A continued high rate of infection during the months of February and March, despite broad vaccination coverage at the time, created confusion about vaccine effectiveness, which in turn contributed to vaccine hesitancy. Among Israeli Arabs, some residents of smaller villages encountered difficulties in reaching vaccination sites, and that also slowed the rate of vaccination.The challenges were addressed via a mix of messaging, incentives, extensions to the initial vaccine delivery system, and other measures. Many of the measures addressed the general population, while others were targeted at subgroups with below-average vaccination rates. Once the early adopters had been vaccinated, it took hard, creative work to increase population coverage from 40 to 60% and beyond.Significantly, some of the capacities and strategies that helped Israel address vaccine hesitancy and geographic access barriers are different from those that enabled it to procure, distribute and administer the vaccines. Some of these strategies are likely to be relevant to other countries as they progress from the challenges of securing an adequate vaccine supply and streamlining distribution to the challenge of encouraging vaccine uptake.

Knowledge and Perceptions about COVID-19 among Health Care Workers: Evidence from COVID-19 Hospitals during the Second Pandemic Wave

Health care workers (HCWs) face a higher risk of infection, since they work at the front line of COVID-19 patients' management. Misinterpretations of current scientific evidence among HCWs may impact the delivery of appropriate care to COVID-19 patients and increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the hospital setting. Moreover, knowledge may affect HCWs perceptions depending on their broad beliefs and past experiences. The aim of this study was to explore the knowledge and perceptions of HCWs regarding COVID-19 issues during the second wave of the pandemic. A cross-sectional survey, involving a printed questionnaire, was conducted from 21 October 2020 to 31 January 2021 in four tertiary care hospitals located at four distant geographical regions in Greece. In total, 294 HCWs participated in this study. The majority of HCWs provided precise responses regarding general knowledge, perceptions, and practices concerning the COVID-19 pandemic. However, responses on hand hygiene and antimicrobial use in HCWs with COVID-19 were mistaken. This study reveals a certain degree of misconceptions and knowledge gaps in HCWs everyday practice, especially regarding hand hygiene and antimicrobial use in COVID-19 patients.

Vaccinating Australia: How long will it take?

The Australian Government began to roll out the national COVID-19 vaccination program in late February 2021, with the initial aim to vaccinate the Australian adult population by the end of October 2021. The task of vaccinating some 20 million people presents considerable logistic challenges, but a rapid rollout is essential to allow for the reopening of borders and is especially urgent as new more transmissible variants arise. Here, we run a series of projections to estimate how long it will take to vaccinate the Australian population under different assumptions about the rate of vaccine administration, the schedule for vaccine eligibility and prevalence of vaccine hesitancy. Our analysis highlights the number of vaccine doses that can be administered per day as the key factor determining the duration of the vaccine rollout. A rate of 200,000 doses per day would achieve 90% population coverage by the end of 2021; 80,000 doses a day would see the rollout extended until mid-2023. Vaccine hesitancy has the potential to greatly slow down the rollout and becomes the main limiting factor when the supply of vaccine doses is high. Speed is of the essence when it comes vaccinating populations against COVID-19: a rapid rollout will minimise the risk of sporadic and costly lockdowns and the potential for small, local clusters getting out of control and sparking new epidemic waves. In order to achieve rapid population coverage, the Australian government must ramp up vaccine administration to at least 200,000 doses per day as quickly as possible, while also promoting vaccine willingness in the community through clear public health messaging, especially to known hesitant demographics.

Efficiency in COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns-A Comparison across Germany's Federal States

Vaccination programs are considered a central pillar of the efforts to stop COVID-19. However, vaccine doses are scarce and several organizational and logistical obstacles, such as the timing of and reserves for second shots and delivery failures, apparently slow down vaccination roll-outs in several countries. Moreover, it is an open question as to where vaccines are administered as efficiently as possible (vaccination centers, hospitals, doctor's offices, pharmacists, etc.). The first aim of our study was to systematically evaluate the efficiency of a country's vaccination campaign. The second aim was to analyze how the integration of doctors' offices into a campaign that formerly relied only on vaccination centers affected the speed of that campaign. Using data on vaccine deliveries and vaccinations given in Germany, we find considerable differences across federal states in terms of efficiency, defined as the ability to administer the most vaccinations out of a given number of available doses. Back-of-the-envelope calculations for January to May 2021 show that vaccinations would have been 3.4-6.9% higher if all federal states had adopted a similar ratio between vaccinations given and vaccines stored, as the most efficient states did. This corresponds to 1.7-3.3% of Germany's total population. In terms of our second research goal, we find evidence that the integration of doctors' offices into the vaccination campaign significantly increased the ratio of vaccinations administered out of a given stock of vaccine doses. On average, there appears to be a structural break in this ratio after doctors' offices were integrated into the vaccination campaign on 5 April 2021. On average, an additional 11.6 out of 100 available doses were administered each week compared to the period prior to that date. We conclude that there are considerable regional differences in the efficiency of the vaccination roll-out. Systematic efficiency analyses are one step to detecting inefficiencies and to identify best practices that can be adopted to eventually speed up the vaccination roll-out in a country.

Ontological Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Roll out Strategies: A Comparison of India and the United States of America

The unprecedented outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments to devise national strategies to curtail its spread. The present study analyzes the national strategies of India and the United States for the COVID-19 vaccine roll out. The paper presents an ontology of COVID-19 vaccine roll out, maps the national strategies, identifies, analyzes the emphases and gaps in them, and proposes corrections to the same. The analysis shows that the national strategies are selective in their focus and siloed in their approach. They must be systematized to address the emerging challenges effectively. Thus, there is need for a systemic understanding and analysis to reinforce the effective pathways to manage vaccine roll out, reposition the ineffective ones, and engineer new ones through feedback and learning.

Transparency of the national government as key in promoting the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines

A recent correspondence discussed two important attributes of the government officials, namely, public service and common good. These two could possibly help the government in terms of promoting vaccination programs in the Philippines. This paper proposes transparency as the third attribute that could help in gaining trust from the people in promoting vaccination in the country.

Ethnic and minority group differences in engagement with COVID-19 vaccination programmes - at Pandemic Pace; when vaccine confidence in mass rollout meets local vaccine hesitancy

Israel, the UK, the USA, and some other wealthier countries lead in the implementation of COVID-19 vaccine mass vaccination programmes. Evidence from these countries indicates that their ethnic minorities could be as disproportionately disadvantaged in COVID-19 vaccines roll-out as they were affected by COVID-19-related serious illnesses. Their disadvantage is linked to their lower social status and fewer social goods compared with dominant population groups.Albeit limited by methodology, early studies attribute lower uptake of COVID-19 amongst ethnic minorities to the wider determinants of vaccine uptake, hesitancy or lack of vaccine confidence, including lower levels of trust and greater concerns about vaccine safety. Early sentinel studies are needed in all early adopter countries.One emerging theme among those of reproductive age in minority communities concerns a worry regarding COVID-19 vaccine's potential adverse effect on fertility. Respected professional groups reassure this is not a credible rationale. Drug and vaccine regulators use understandable, cautious and conditional language in emergency licencing of new gene-based vaccines. Technical assessments on whether there is any potential genotoxicity or reproductive toxicity should be more emphatic.From a public health perspective, sentinel studies should identify such community concerns and act early to produce convincing explanations and evidence. Local public health workforces need to be diverse, multiskilled, and able to engage well with minorities and vulnerable groups. The local Directors of Public Health in the UK are based in each local government area and have a remit and opportunity to stimulate speedy action to increase vaccine uptake.During the rapid Pandemic Pace of the vaccines roll-out, extra efforts to minimise uptake variations are likely to achieve improvements in the next year or two. We expect variations will not disappear however, given that underlying inequalities persist in less inclusive social systems.

An Updated Review of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and the Importance of Effective Vaccination Programs in Pandemic Times

Since the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic was declared a year ago, the search for vaccines has become the top priority in order to restore normalcy after 2.5 million deaths worldwide, overloaded sanitary systems, and a huge economic burden. Vaccine development has represented a step towards the desired herd immunity in a short period of time, owing to a high level of investment, the focus of researchers, and the urge for the authorization of the faster administration of vaccines. Nevertheless, this objective may only be achieved by pursuing effective strategies and policies in various countries worldwide. In the present review, some aspects involved in accomplishing a successful vaccination program are addressed, in addition to the importance of vaccination in a pandemic in the face of unwillingness, conspiracy theories, or a lack of information among the public. Moreover, we provide some updated points related to the landscape of the clinical development of vaccine candidates, specifically, the top five vaccines that are already being assessed in Phase IV clinical trials (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, AZD1222, Ad26.COV2.S, and CoronaVac).

Level up for culture models - How 3D cell culture models benefit SARS-CoV-2 research

Welcome to a new decade and a new issue of the Biomedical Journal - casting a sorrowful look onto a year that will go down in history as a tombstone etched by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also a hopeful glance into the future, now that multiple vaccination programs against the SARS-CoV-2 virus have started. This issue is dedicated to the continuous effort by researchers all around the globe to understand and counter the pathogen, as well as to be better prepared for future threats. Therefore, we learn about the advantages of complex 3D cell culture models for studying host-virus interactions, and the disease course of COVID-19 in children. Moreover, we discover how neutralising monoclonal antibodies and peptide-based vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are developed, and the therapeutic potentials of lopinavir/ritonavir, mesenchymal stem cells, as well as plant and algae extracts. Finally, we ponder over the lessons to be learnt from SARS-CoV and MERS, and hear about differences between nucleotide-based SARS-CoV-2 detection methods.

Who should be vaccinated first? Comparing vaccine prioritization strategies in Israel and European countries using the Covid-19 Health System Response Monitor

The rapid rollout of Israel's vaccination program has led to considerable international interest. In this brief commentary we consider how the criteria for vaccination priority groups differ between Israel and selected European countries. We argue that following the Israeli approach of using broad criteria for prioritization- i.e. having fewer groups and a lower age threshold- could have several beneficial effects, including more manageable logistics and fewer roll out delays, as well as potentially reducing pressure on hospitals. With an increasing supply of vaccines becoming available rapidly in much of Europe, countries could consider following the approach of Israel and adopting broader priority criteria going forward.