Influenza activity in Thailand and occurrence in different climates

Behavioral-biological surveillance of emerging infectious diseases among a dynamic cohort in Thailand

Background

Interactions between humans and animals are the key elements of zoonotic spillover leading to zoonotic disease emergence. Research to understand the high-risk behaviors associated with disease transmission at the human-animal interface is limited, and few consider regional and local contexts.

Objective

This study employed an integrated behavioral–biological surveillance approach for the early detection of novel and known zoonotic viruses in potentially high-risk populations, in an effort to identify risk factors for spillover and to determine potential foci for risk-mitigation measures.

Method

Participants were enrolled at two community-based sites (n = 472) in eastern and western Thailand and two hospital (clinical) sites (n = 206) in northeastern and central Thailand. A behavioral questionnaire was administered to understand participants’ demographics, living conditions, health history, and animal-contact behaviors and attitudes. Biological specimens were tested for coronaviruses, filoviruses, flaviviruses, influenza viruses, and paramyxoviruses using pan (consensus) RNA Virus assays.

Results

Overall 61/678 (9%) of participants tested positive for the viral families screened which included influenza viruses (75%), paramyxoviruses (15%), human coronaviruses (3%), flaviviruses (3%), and enteroviruses (3%). The most salient predictors of reporting unusual symptoms (i.e., any illness or sickness that is not known or recognized in the community or diagnosed by medical providers) in the past year were having other household members who had unusual symptoms and being scratched or bitten by animals in the same year. Many participants reported raising and handling poultry (10.3% and 24.2%), swine (2%, 14.6%), and cattle (4.9%, 7.8%) and several participants also reported eating raw or undercooked meat of these animals (2.2%, 5.5%, 10.3% respectively). Twenty four participants (3.5%) reported handling bats or having bats in the house roof. Gender, age, and livelihood activities were shown to be significantly associated with participants’ interactions with animals. Participants’ knowledge of risks influenced their health-seeking behavior.

Conclusion

The results suggest that there is a high level of interaction between humans, livestock, and wild animals in communities at sites we investigated in Thailand. This study highlights important differences among demographic and occupational risk factors as they relate to animal contact and zoonotic disease risk, which can be used by policymakers and local public health programs to build more effective surveillance strategies and behavior-focused interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07439-7.

Etiology and Clinical Characteristics of Severe Pneumonia Among Young Children in Thailand: Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Case-Control Study Findings, 2012-2013

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death among children <5 years of age beyond the neonatal period in Thailand. Using data from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study, we provide a detailed description of pneumonia cases and etiology in Thailand to inform local treatment and prevention strategies in this age group.

METHODS

PERCH, a multi-country case-control study, evaluated the etiology of hospitalized cases of severe and very severe pneumonia among children 1-59 months of age. The Thailand site enrolled children for 24 consecutive months during January 2012-February 2014 with staggered start dates in 2 provinces. Cases were children hospitalized with pre-2013 WHO-defined severe or very severe pneumonia. Community controls were randomly selected from health services registries in each province. Analyses were restricted to HIV-negative cases and controls. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs comparing organism prevalence detected by nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) polymerase chain reaction between cases and controls. The PERCH Integrated Analysis (PIA) used Bayesian latent variable analysis to estimate pathogen-specific etiologic fractions and 95% credible intervals.

RESULTS

Over 96% of both cases (n = 223) and controls (n = 659) had at least 1 organism detected; multiple organisms were detected in 86% of cases and 88% of controls. Among 98 chest Radiograph positive (CXR+) cases, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) had the highest NP/OP prevalence (22.9%) and the strongest association with case status (OR 20.5; 95% CI: 10.2, 41.3) and accounted for 34.6% of the total etiologic fraction. Tuberculosis (TB) accounted for 10% (95% CrI: 1.6-26%) of the etiologic fraction among CXR+ cases.

DISCUSSION

More than one-third of hospitalized cases of severe and very severe CXR+ pneumonia among children 1-59 months of age in Thailand were attributable to RSV. TB accounted for 10% of cases, supporting evaluation for TB among children hospitalized with pneumonia in high-burden settings. Similarities in pneumonia etiology in Thailand and other PERCH sites suggest that global control strategies based on PERCH study findings are relevant to Thailand and similar settings.

Prevalence of antibodies against seasonal influenza A and B viruses among older adults in rural Thailand: A cross-sectional study

Assessing the seroprevalence of the high-risk individuals against the influenza virus is essential to evaluate the progress of vaccine implementation programs and establish influenza virus interventions. Herein, we identified the pre-existing cross-protection of the circulating seasonal influenza viruses among the older-aged population. A cross-sectional study was performed base on the 176 residual sera samples collected from older adults aged 60 to 95 years without a history of vaccination in rural Thailand in 2015. Sera antibody titers against influenza A and B viruses circulating between 2016 and 2019 were determined by hemagglutination inhibition assay. These findings indicated the low titers of pre-existing antibodies to circulating influenza subtypes and showed age-independent antibody titers among the old adults. Moderate seropositive rates (HAI ≥ 1:40) were observed in influenza A viruses (65.9%A(H3N2), 50.0% for A(H1N1) pdm09), and found comparatively lower rates in influenza B viruses (14% B/Yam2, 21% B/Yam3 and 25% B/Vic). Only 5% of individuals possessed broadly protective antibodies against both seasonal influenza A and B virus in this region. Our findings highlighted the low pre-existing antibodies to circulating influenza strains in the following season observed in older adults. The serological study will help inform policy-makers for health care planning and guide control measures concerning vaccination programs.

Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand

Yearly increase in influenza activity is associated with cold and dry winter in the temperate regions, while influenza patterns in tropical countries vary significantly by regional climates and geographic locations. To examine the association between influenza activity in Thailand and local climate factors including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, we analyzed the influenza surveillance data from January 2010 to December 2018 obtained from a large private hospital in Bangkok. We found that approximately one in five influenza-like illness samples (21.6% or 6,678/30,852) tested positive for influenza virus. Influenza virus typing showed that 34.2% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 46.0% were influenza A(H3N2), and 19.8% were influenza B virus. There were two seasonal waves of increased influenza activity. Peak influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 activity occurred in February and again in August, while influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses were primarily detected in August and September. Time series analysis suggests that increased relative humidity was significantly associated with increased influenza activity in Bangkok. Months with peak influenza activity generally followed the most humid months of the year. We performed the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) multivariate analysis of all influenza activity on the 2011 to 2017 data to predict the influenza activity for 2018. The resulting model closely resembled the actual observed overall influenza detected that year. Consequently, the ability to predict seasonal pattern of influenza in a large tropical city such as Bangkok may enable better public health planning and underscores the importance of annual influenza vaccination prior to the rainy season.

Clinical Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Coronavirus Disease, Thailand

Among 11 patients in Thailand infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, we detected viral RNA in upper respiratory specimens a median of 14 days after illness onset and 9 days after fever resolution. We identified viral co-infections and an asymptomatic person with detectable virus RNA in serial tests. We describe implications for surveillance.

Cost Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analyses of Influenza Vaccination for Prisoners in Thailand: An Application of System Dynamic Modelling

Influenza outbreaks in Thai prisons were increasing in number every year and to address this, the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) initiated a policy to promote vaccination for prisoners. The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness and budget impact of the influenza vaccination policy for prisoners in Thailand. The study obtained data from the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control (DDC), MOPH. Deterministic system dynamic modelling was exercised to estimate the financial implication of the vaccination programme in comparison with routine outbreak control. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated via a DDC perspective. The reproductive number was estimated at 1.4. A total of 143 prisons across the country (375,763 prisoners) were analysed. In non-vaccination circumstances, the total healthcare cost amounted to 174.8 million Baht (US$ 5.6 million). Should all prisoners be vaccinated, the total healthcare cost would reduce to 90.9 million Baht (US$ 2.9 million), and 46.8 million Baht (US$ 1.5 million) of this is related to the vaccination. The ICER of vaccination (compared with routine outbreak control) varied between 39,738.0 to 61,688.3 Baht per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (US$ 1281.9-1989.9). Should the vaccination cover 30% of the prisoners, the ICER would be equal to 46,866.8 Baht (US$ 1511.8) per DALY averted with the budget burden amounted to Baht (US$ 4.8 million). The vaccination programme would become more cost-effective if the routine outbreak control was intensified. In summary, the vaccination programme was a cost-effective measure to halt influenza outbreak amongst prisoners. Further primary studies that aim to assess the actual impact of the programme are recommended.

Epidemiology and Transmission of Respiratory Infections in Thai Army Recruits: A Prospective Cohort Study

Military recruits are at high risk of respiratory infections. However, limited data exist on military populations in tropical settings, where the epidemiology of respiratory infections differs substantially from temperate settings. We enrolled recruits undertaking a 10-week military training at two Royal Thai Army barracks between May 2014 and July 2015. We used a multiplex respiratory panel to analyze nose and throat swabs collected at the start and end of the training period, and from participants experiencing respiratory symptoms during follow-up. Paired sera were tested for influenza seroconversion using a hemagglutinin inhibition assay. Overall rates of upper respiratory illness and influenza-like illness were 3.1 and 2.0 episodes per 100 person-weeks, respectively. A pathogen was detected in 96% of samples. The most commonly detected microbes were Haemophilus influenzae type B (62.7%) or non–type B (58.2%) and rhinovirus (22.4%). At baseline, bacterial colonization was high and included H. influenzae type B (82.3%), H. influenzae non–type B (31.5%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (14.6%), Staphylococcus aureus (8.5%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (8.5%). At the end of follow-up, colonization with H. influenzae non–type B had increased to 74.1%, and S. pneumoniae to 33.6%. In the serology subset, the rate of influenza infection was 3.4 per 100 person-months; 58% of influenza infections resulted in clinical disease. Our study provides key data on the epidemiology and transmission of respiratory pathogens in tropical settings. Our results emphasize the need for improved infection prevention and control in military environments, given the high burden of illness and potential for intense transmission of respiratory pathogens.

Circulation and characterization of seasonal influenza viruses in Cambodia, 2012-2015

Background

Influenza virus circulation is monitored through the Cambodian influenza‐like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance system and isolates are characterized by the National Influenza Centre (NIC). Seasonal influenza circulation has previously been characterized by year‐round activity and a peak during the rainy season (June‐November).

Objectives

We documented the circulation of seasonal influenza in Cambodia for 2012‐2015 and investigated genetic, antigenic, and antiviral resistance characteristics of influenza isolates.

Patients/Methods

Respiratory samples were collected from patients presenting with influenza‐like illness (ILI) at 11 hospitals throughout Cambodia. First‐line screening was conducted by the National Institute of Public Health and the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences. Confirmation of testing and genetic, antigenic and antiviral resistance characterization was conducted by Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, the NIC. Additional virus characterization was conducted by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza (Melbourne, Australia).

Results

Between 2012 and 2015, 1,238 influenza‐positive samples were submitted to the NIC. Influenza A(H3N2) (55.3%) was the dominant subtype, followed by influenza B (30.9%; predominantly B/Yamagata‐lineage) and A(H1N1)pdm09 (13.9%). Circulation of influenza viruses began earlier in 2014 and 2015 than previously described, coincident with the emergence of A(H3N2) clades 3C.2a and 3C.3a, respectively. There was high diversity in the antigenicity of A(H3N2) viruses, and to a smaller extent influenza B viruses, during this period, with some mismatches with the northern and southern hemisphere vaccine formulations. All isolates tested were susceptible to the influenza antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir.

Conclusions

Seasonal and year‐round co‐circulation of multiple influenza types/subtypes were detected in Cambodia during 2012‐2015.

Surveillance and characterisation of influenza viruses among patients with influenza-like illness in Bali, Indonesia, July 2010-June 2014

BACKGROUND

Although Indonesia has high fatality rate of human A/H5N1 cases, epidemiological and clinical data on influenza virus circulation among humans has been limited. Within Indonesia, Bali province is of interest due to high population densities of humans, pigs and poultry. This study aims to characterize and compare the epidemiological and clinical patterns of influenza viruses in humans through surveillance among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Bali, Indonesia.

METHODS

ILI patients were recruited at 21 sentinel health facilities across all nine regencies in Bali, from July 2010 to June 2014. PCR-based assays were used for detection and subtyping of influenza viruses. Demographic, behavioural and clinical data were tested for associations with influenza using chi-squared tests and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 2077 ILI patients, 291 (14.0%) tested positive for influenza A, 152 (7.3%) for influenza B, and 16 (0.77%) for both influenza A and B. Of the influenza A isolates, the majority 61.2% were A/H3N2, followed by A/H1N1-pdm09 (80; 26.1%). Two A/H5N1 were identified. Influenza positive rates were significantly higher during wet season months (28.3%), compared with the dry season (13.8%; χ2 = 61.1; df = 1; p < 0.0001). Clinical predictors for infection varied by virus type, with measured fever (≥38 °C) more strongly associated with influenza B (AOR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.39).

CONCLUSION

Influenza circulates year-round among humans in Bali with higher activity during the wet season. High contact rates with poultry and pigs, along with influenza virus detection that could not be subtyped through conventional assays, highlight the need for molecular studies to characterize epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in this setting.

Genetic and antigenic dynamics of influenza A viruses of swine on pig farms in Thailand

Surveillance studies of influenza A virus of swine (IAV-S) have accumulated information regarding IAVs-S circulating in Thailand, but how IAVs-S evolve within a farm remains unclear. In the present study, we isolated 82 A(H1N1)pdm09 and 87 H3N2 viruses from four farms from 2011 through 2017. We then phylogenetically and antigenically analyzed the isolates to elucidate their evolution within each farm. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated multiple introductions of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses that resembled epidemic A(H1N1)pdm09 strains in humans in Thailand, and they reassorted with H3N2 viruses as well as other A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Antigenic analysis revealed that the viruses had acquired antigenic diversity either by accumulating substitutions in the hemagglutinin protein or through the introduction of IAV-S strains with different antigenicity. Our results, obtained through continuous longitudinal surveillance, revealed that IAV-S can be maintained on a pig farm over several years through the generation of antigenic diversity due to the accumulation of mutations, introduction of new strains, and reassortment events.

Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases: Complex network based modeling of climate influences on influenza like illnesses

In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.

Influenza in the Asia-Pacific region: Findings and recommendations from the Global Influenza Initiative

The fourth roundtable meeting of the Global Influenza Initiative (GII) was held in Hong Kong, China, in July 2015. An objective of this meeting was to gain a broader understanding of the epidemiology, surveillance, vaccination policies and programs, and obstacles to vaccination of influenza in the Asia-Pacific region through presentations of data from Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. As well as a need for improved levels of surveillance in some areas, a range of factors were identified that act as barriers to vaccination in some countries, including differences in climate and geography, logistical challenges, funding, lack of vaccine awareness and education, safety concerns, perceived lack of vaccine effectiveness, and lack of inclusion in national guidelines. From the presentations at the meeting, the GII discussed a number of recommendations for easing the burden of influenza and overcoming the current challenges in the Asia-Pacific region. These recommendations encompass the need to improve surveillance and availability of epidemiological data; the development and publication of national guidelines, where not currently available and/or that are in line with those proposed by the World Health Organization; the requirement for optimal timing of vaccination programs according to local or country-specific epidemiology; and calls for advocacy and government support of vaccination programs in order to improve availability and uptake and coverage. In conclusion, in addition to the varied epidemiology of seasonal influenza across this diverse region, there are a number of logistical and resourcing issues that present a challenge to the development of optimally effective vaccination strategies and that need to be overcome to improve access to and uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines. The GII has developed a number of recommendations to address these challenges and improve the control of influenza.