The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

Should I stay (home) or should I go (party)? Examination of drinking as a mediator of the relationship between alcohol-related social media content and adherence to COVID-19 recommendations among college students

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted young people's drinking. Yet, despite social gatherings posing a known risk for increased contraction, some college students still congregated to drink. Furthermore, some students posted about these drinking events to their public and/or private social media feeds. It is crucial to understand the relationships between posting alcohol-related content (ARC), drinking and adherence to COVID-19 recommendations because they may have contributed to the spread of the virus.

METHODS

The current interval contingent, 14-day diary study assessed students' (N = 129) public and private ARC; their drinking; percentage of time wearing a mask and social distancing; and number of people they socialised with during drinking events (total crowd size) each day.

RESULTS

Multilevel structural equation modelling was employed to examine relationships between ARC posting, drinking and behavioural outcomes. On days in which students posted both public and private ARC, they tended to drink more and in turn, reported attending gatherings with larger crowds. Curiously, on days in which students drank more, they indicated more mask wearing and social distancing, and on days in which students posted more private ARC, they also reported larger crowds. Finally, an indirect effect of drinking on the links between public and private ARC and mask wearing, social distancing and total crowd sizes emerged.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Findings revealed students continued to post and drink socially despite the risks, which may have encouraged others within their networks to engage in similar risky behaviours. Future public health crises should balance young people's need for social connection with risk mitigation efforts.

Risk Index of Regional Infection Expansion of COVID-19: Moving Direction Entropy Study Using Mobility Data and Its Application to Tokyo

BACKGROUND

Policies, such as stay home, bubbling, and stay with your community, recommending that individuals reduce contact with diverse communities, including families and schools, have been introduced to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these policies are violated if individuals from various communities gather, which is a latent risk in a real society where people move among various unreported communities.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to create a physical index to assess the possibility of contact between individuals from diverse communities, which serves as an indicator of the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 spread when considered and combined with existing indices.

METHODS

Moving direction entropy (MDE), which quantifies the diversity of moving directions of individuals in each local region, is proposed as an index to evaluate a region's risk of contact of individuals from diverse communities. MDE was computed for each inland municipality in Tokyo using mobility data collected from smartphones before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. To validate the hypothesis that the impact of intercommunity contact on infection expansion becomes larger for a virus with larger infectivity, we compared the correlations of the expansion of infectious diseases with indices, including MDE and the densities of supermarkets, restaurants, etc. In addition, we analyzed the temporal changes in MDE in municipalities.

RESULTS

This study had 4 important findings. First, the MDE values for local regions showed significant invariance between different periods according to the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (>0.9). Second, MDE was found to correlate with the rate of infection cases of COVID-19 among local populations in 53 inland regions (average of 0.76 during the period of expansion). The density of restaurants had a similar correlation with COVID-19. The correlation between MDE and the rate of infection was smaller for influenza than for COVID-19, and tended to be even smaller for sexually transmitted diseases (order of infectivity). These findings support the hypothesis. Third, the spread of COVID-19 was accelerated in regions with high-rank MDE values compared to those with high-rank restaurant densities during and after the period of the governmental declaration of emergency (P<.001). Fourth, the MDE values tended to be high and increased during the pandemic period in regions where influx or daytime movement was present. A possible explanation for the third and fourth findings is that policymakers and living people have been overlooking MDE.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend monitoring the regional values of MDE to reduce the risk of infection spread. To aid in this monitoring, we present a method to create a heatmap of MDE values, thereby drawing public attention to behaviors that facilitate contact between communities during a highly infectious disease pandemic.

Prosopagnosia (face blindness) and child health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Prosopagnosia or 'face blindness' is the inability to recognise people's faces. There are two types: congenital or developmental prosopagnosia, which is the most common, and acquired prosopagnosia, which may occur secondary to brain tumours, stroke or other brain disorders. The authors of this article explored if mask wearing as a result of the restrictions imposed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may affect social and developmental outcomes in children, including the development of prosopagnosia. Limited research on this topic is available and, although some relevant publications were found, no definitive evidence of mask-induced prosopagnosia in children was identified. However, nurses should be aware of this issue and discuss coping strategies to support children with the condition. Longitudinal studies on outcomes in children from different age groups who grew up during the COVID-19 pandemic will provide further insight.

The effects of social interactions on momentary stress and mood during COVID-19 lockdowns

OBJECTIVE

Social interactions are vital for our well-being, particularly during times of stress. However, previous studies linking social interactions to psychological outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic have largely been retrospective and/or cross-sectional. Thus, we tested four preregistered hypotheses (H1-H4) concerning the real-time effect of social interactions on momentary changes in stress and mood during two COVID-19 lockdowns.

DESIGN

We used an ecological momentary assessment approach in 732 participants in spring 2020 (burst 1) and in a subsample of these participants (n = 281) during a further lockdown in autumn/winter 2020 (burst 2).

METHODS

Participants reported their stress and mood in a smartphone app five times per day for 7 days and indicated the nature and frequency of their recent social interactions.

RESULTS

Social interactions (H1) and their frequency (H2) improved momentary affect (e.g., social interactions increased mood valence: estimate = 2.605, p < .001 for burst 1). This was particularly the case for face-to-face interactions which, compared with other types of interactions, reduced momentary stress (e.g., estimate = -2.285, p < .001 for burst 1) and boosted mood (e.g., estimate = 1.759, p < .001 for burst 1) across both lockdowns, even when controlling for the pleasantness of the interaction and the closeness of the interaction partner (H3). We also show that individual differences in people's responsiveness to different social rewards modulated the impact of social interactions on momentary mood (H4).

CONCLUSIONS

This study extends findings from cross-sectional and retrospective studies by highlighting the real-time affective benefits of social interactions during COVID-19 lockdown. The results have important implications for the (self-) management of stress and mood during psychologically demanding periods.

COVID-19 endgame: From pandemic to endemic? Vaccination, reopening and evolution in low- and high-vaccinated populations

COVID-19 remains a major public health concern, with large resurgences even where there has been widespread uptake of vaccines. Waning immunity and the emergence of new variants will shape the long-term burden and dynamics of COVID-19. We explore the transition to the endemic state, and the endemic incidence in British Columbia (BC), Canada and South Africa (SA), to compare low and high vaccination coverage settings with differing public health policies, using a combination of modelling approaches. We compare reopening (relaxation of public health measures) gradually and rapidly as well as at different vaccination levels. We examine how the eventual endemic state depends on the duration of immunity, the rate of importations, the efficacy of vaccines and the transmissibility. These depend on the evolution of the virus, which continues to undergo selection. Slower reopening leads to a lower peak level of incidence and fewer overall infections in the wave following reopening: as much as a 60% lower peak and a 10% lower total in some illustrative simulations; under realistic parameters, reopening when 70% of the population is vaccinated leads to a large resurgence in cases. The long-term endemic behaviour may stabilize as late as January 2023, with further waves of high incidence occurring depending on the transmissibility of the prevalent variant, duration of immunity, and antigenic drift. We find that long term endemic levels are not necessarily lower than current pandemic levels: in a population of 100,000 with representative parameter settings (Reproduction number 5, 1-year duration of immunity, vaccine efficacy at 80% and importations at 3 cases per 100K per day) there are over 100 daily incident cases in the model. Predicted prevalence at endemicity has increased more than twofold after the emergence and spread of Omicron. The consequent burden on health care systems depends on the severity of infection in immunized or previously infected individuals.

The effects of loneliness and psychological flexibility on veterans' substance use and physical and mental health functioning during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social isolation was a common experience as people were trying to keep themselves and others safe from infection. Veterans with problematic substance use are at particular risk of the consequences of social isolation. This study evaluated the nature of social interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of loneliness and psychological flexibility on self-reported substance use and physical and mental health functioning among U.S. veterans who reported problematic substance use. Data from 409 veterans with self-reported substance use concerns were obtained via a cross-sectional online survey. Results showed that many veterans who engaged in problematic substance use during the COVID-19 pandemic reported a number of social supports during this period and frequent communication with others, but still felt lonelier during the pandemic. In regression analyses, higher levels of loneliness were associated with more negative impacts of the pandemic, greater substance use, and poorer physical and mental health functioning. Psychological flexibility demonstrated significant unique variance in explaining mental health functioning during the pandemic after accounting for loneliness, but not for substance use or physical functioning. For veterans with high levels of loneliness, high levels of psychological flexibility were associated with a lower negative impact on quality of life due to the pandemic, but for veterans with low levels of loneliness, differing levels of psychological flexibility were not significantly associated with the negative impact of COVID-19. Overall, loneliness and psychological flexibility appear to be highly associated with the negative impact of COVID-19 on veterans with problematic substance use.

Self-Care and Mental Health Among College Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Social and Physical Environment Features of Interactions Which Impact Meaningfulness and Mitigate Loneliness

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted patterns and limited opportunities for social interaction, which increased already high loneliness rates among college students. Meaningful social interactions can mitigate negative mental health outcomes such as loneliness and bolster social support, which is in turn linked to better self-care practices. Social connection can aid in self-care through social support as well as be considered a self-care practice itself to counter the negative effects of loneliness. This study examined the social interaction patterns of 132 college students from a mid-sized United States university during the pandemic to understand which characteristics support meaningful interactions. Students completed an online survey from October through December 2020 to report details of their 2020 and 2019 social interactions, as well as their most recent interactions, including time spent, the mode (in-person versus virtual), their relationship to others in the interaction, the type of activity and privacy of the setting. Results found that students spent significantly less time interacting with non-roommates in-person in 2020, and more time in voice and video calls. No differences were found for texting and in-person roommate interactions. Meaningfulness was significantly higher for interactions with family or friends. Students reported the highest meaning for interactions that were planned and in-person, with lowest meaning for planned virtual interactions. No differences were observed for meaningfulness based on the type of interaction activity or privacy of the setting. Understanding the characteristics of the most meaningful interactions can help college students prioritize social interactions that may best promote self-care, mitigate loneliness, and bolster social support. High meaningfulness scores for planned in-person interactions suggests that these types of interactions may be most valuable for maintaining existing self-care patterns, engaging in self-care activities, and receiving support. Self-care activities for college students, including social interactions, were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have further exacerbated loneliness. College students should be encouraged to consciously engage in person with family and friends to practice self-care and maintain or improve mental health. Strategically selecting interactions that will optimize meaningfulness may therefore be critical to helping students to maintain positive mental health during and beyond the pandemic.

Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them

New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of available data, yielding improved disease control and stimulating collection of better data and new data types. Here we identify key challenges for the structure, formulation, analysis and use of mathematical models of pathogen transmission relevant to current and future pandemics.

Positive outcomes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

ISSUE ADDRESSED

To investigate whether Australians have experienced any positive effects during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

National online longitudinal survey. As part of a June 2020 survey, participants (n = 1370) were asked 'In your life, have you experienced any positive effects from the COVID-19 pandemic' (yes/no) and also completed the World Health Organisation-Five well-being index. Differences were explored by demographic variables. Free-text responses were thematically coded.

RESULTS

Nine hundred sixty participants (70%) reported experiencing at least one positive effect during the COVID-19 pandemic. Living with others (P = .045) and employment situation (P < .001) at baseline (April) were associated with experiencing positive effects. Individuals working for pay from home were more likely to experience positive effects compared to those who were not working for pay (aOR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.63, P < .001) or who were working for pay outside the home (aOR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.58, P < .001). 54.2% of participants reported a sufficient level of well-being, 23.2% low well-being and a further 22.6% very low well-being. Of those experiencing positive effects, 945/960 (98%) provided an explanation. The three most common themes were 'Family time' (33%), 'Work flexibility' (29%) and 'Calmer life' (19%).

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of participants reported positive effects resulting from changes to daily life due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

SO WHAT

The needs of people living alone, and of those having to work outside the home or who are unemployed, should be considered by health policymakers and employers in future pandemic preparedness efforts.

"We want to live a little longer and our family want[s] us around": A summative content analysis of adherence to COVID-19-related guidelines using the Theoretical Domains Framework

Objective

Public adherence to COVID‐19‐related government guidance varied during the initial lockdown in the UK, but the determinants of public adherence to such guidance are unclear. We capture spontaneous reflections on adherence to UK government guidance from a representative UK sample, and use the TDF to identify key determinants of COVID‐related behaviours.

Design

The design was cross‐sectional.

Methods

Qualitative data were collected from a large sample of UK adults (N = 2,252) via an online questionnaire as part of a wider survey about the UK public’s responses to the government’s COVID‐19‐related guidance. Summative content analysis was used to identify key guideline terms in the data, followed by latent analysis to interpret the underlying meanings behind the terms using the TDF as an analytical framework.

Results

Six TDF domains were identified in the data: Environmental Context and Resources; Beliefs about Consequences; Social Influences; Memory, Attention and Decision Processes; Emotion; and Knowledge. Although the samples were motivated and capable of adhering, limitations in their environments, resources, and social support mechanisms restricted behaviour. Self‐reported adherence was sensitive to positive and negative beliefs about the effectiveness of the measures, in addition to interpretations of the terms ‘essential’ and ‘necessary’ in the guidance.

Conclusions

Despite extensive structural obstacles to adherence, the majority of the British public were able to follow government COVID‐19‐related instructions, provided they had sufficient resources, social support, and positive perceptions about the effectiveness of the measures. Ambiguities surrounding key terminology in the guidance left room for interpretation, which may have contributed to non‐adherence.

Intimate physical contact between people from different households during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods study from a large, quasi-representative survey (Natsal-COVID)

OBJECTIVES

Physical distancing as a non-pharmaceutical intervention aims to reduce interactions between people to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Intimate physical contact outside the household (IPCOH) may expand transmission networks by connecting households. We aimed to explore whether intimacy needs impacted adherence to physical distancing following lockdown in Britain in March 2020.

METHODS

The Natsal-COVID web-panel survey (July-August 2020) used quota-sampling and weighting to achieve a quasi-representative population sample. We estimate reporting of IPCOH with a romantic/sexual partner in the 4 weeks prior to interview, describe the type of contact, identify demographic and behavioural factors associated with IPCOH and present age-adjusted ORs (aORs). Qualitative interviews (n=18) were conducted to understand the context, reasons and decision making around IPCOH.

RESULTS

Of 6654 participants aged 18-59 years, 9.9% (95% CI 9.1% to 10.6%) reported IPCOH. IPCOH was highest in those aged 18-24 (17.7%), identifying as gay or lesbian (19.5%), and in steady non-cohabiting relationships (56.3%). IPCOH was associated with reporting risk behaviours (eg, condomless sex, higher alcohol consumption). IPCOH was less likely among those reporting bad/very bad health (aOR 0.54; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.93) but more likely among those with COVID-19 symptoms and/or diagnosis (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.65). Two-thirds (64.4%) of IPCOH was reported as being within a support bubble. Qualitative interviews found that people reporting IPCOH deliberated over, and made efforts to mitigate, the risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Given 90% of people did not report IPCOH, this contact may not be a large additional contributor to SARS-CoV-2 transmission, although heterogeneity exists within the population. Public health messages need to recognise how single people and partners living apart balance sexual intimacy and relationship needs with adherence to control measures.

Within- and across-day patterns of interplay between depressive symptoms and related psychopathological processes: a dynamic network approach during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

In order to understand the intricate patterns of interplay connected to the formation and maintenance of depressive symptomatology, repeated measures investigations focusing on within-person relationships between psychopathological mechanisms and depressive components are required.

METHODS

This large-scale preregistered intensive longitudinal study conducted 68,240 observations of 1706 individuals in the general adult population across a 40-day period during the COVID-19 pandemic to identify the detrimental processes involved in depressive states. Daily responses were modeled using multi-level dynamic network analysis to investigate the temporal associations across days, in addition to contemporaneous relationships between depressive components within a daily window.

RESULTS

Among the investigated psychopathological mechanisms, helplessness predicted the strongest across-day influence on depressive symptoms, while emotion regulation difficulties displayed more proximal interactions with symptomatology. Helplessness was further involved in the amplification of other theorized psychopathological mechanisms including rumination, the latter of which to a greater extent was susceptible toward being influenced rather than temporally influencing other components of depressive states. Distinctive symptoms of depression behaved differently, with depressed mood and anhedonia most prone to being impacted, while lethargy and worthlessness were more strongly associated with outgoing activity in the network.

CONCLUSIONS

The main mechanism predicting the amplifications of detrimental symptomatology was helplessness. Lethargy and worthlessness revealed greater within-person carry-over effects across days, providing preliminary indications that these symptoms may be more strongly associated with pushing individuals toward prolonged depressive state experiences. The psychopathological processes of rumination, helplessness, and emotion regulation only exhibited interactions with the depressed mood and worthlessness component of depression, being unrelated to lethargy and anhedonia. The findings have implications for the impediment of depressive symptomatology during and beyond the pandemic period. They further outline the gaps in the literature concerning the identification of psychopathological processes intertwined with lethargy and anhedonia on the within-person level.

Depression and Anxiety in Times of COVID-19: How Coping Strategies and Loneliness Relate to Mental Health Outcomes and Academic Performance

The link between depression, anxiety, and loneliness has been well established in the literature. Yet, the performance consequences of these negative mental health outcomes and the role of coping behaviors, as well as behavioral consequences such as procrastination as mediators have received far less research attention. Due to the COVID-19 social isolation restrictions, people are at risk of falling into a negative mental health spiral that can also affect their performance over time. The purpose of this longitudinal study among 881 first-year bachelor students is to explore the mechanisms by which loneliness, coping strategies in the context of COVID-19, mental health outcomes and procrastination sequentially mediate the relationship depression and anxiety on the one hand, and academic performance on the other hand. We measured mental health variables several times during the COVID-19 crisis and assessed how this translates into academic performance at the end of the academic year. By performing exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, three high-order factors for the coping strategies in the context of the COVID-19 crisis were identified, namely maladaptive coping, adaptive coping, and supportive coping. Structural equation modeling was used to test the sequential mediational model. The results showed that maladaptive coping strategies employed at T2 during the lockdown, but not adaptive or supportive coping partially mediate the trajectories of depression (T1) and anxiety (T1). Loneliness (T2) partially mediated the trajectory of depression and anxiety (T1), and procrastination fully mediated the impact of depression (T3) on academic performance (T4). These results help understand the mechanisms that influence mental health and academic performance outcomes in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Based on the study outcomes, educational researchers can test strategies to reduce the adverse effects of stressful situations in learning environments by targeting maladaptive coping behaviors and procrastination.

Silver Linings Reported by Australians Experiencing Public Health Restrictions during the First Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Report

This national study investigated the positives reported by residents experiencing the large-scale public health measures instituted in Australia to manage the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Most Australians had not previously experienced the traditional public health measures used (social distancing, hand hygiene and restriction of movement) and which could potentially impact negatively on mental well-being. The research design included qualitative semi-structured phone interviews where participants described their early pandemic experiences. Data analysis used a rapid identification of themes technique, well-suited to large-scale qualitative research. The ninety participants (mean age 48 years; 70 women) were distributed nationally. Analysis revealed five themes linked with mental well-being and the concept of silver linings: safety and security, gratitude and appreciation, social cohesion and connections, and opportunities to reset priorities and resilience. Participants demonstrated support for the public health measures and evidence of individual and community resilience. They were cognisant of positives despite personal curtailment and negative impacts of public health directives. Stories of hope, strength, and acceptance, innovative connections with others and focusing on priorities and opportunities within the hardship were important strategies that others could use in managing adversity.

Household bubbles and COVID-19 transmission: insights from percolation theory

In the era of social distancing to curb the spread of COVID-19, bubbling is the combining of two or more households to create an exclusive larger group. The impact of bubbling on COVID-19 transmission is challenging to quantify because of the complex social structures involved. We developed a network description of households in the UK, using the configuration model to link households. We explored the impact of bubbling scenarios by joining together households of various sizes. For each bubbling scenario, we calculated the percolation threshold, that is, the number of connections per individual required for a giant component to form, numerically and theoretically. We related the percolation threshold to the household reproduction number. We find that bubbling scenarios in which single-person households join with another household have a minimal impact on network connectivity and transmission potential. Ubiquitous scenarios where all households form a bubble are likely to lead to an extensive transmission that is hard to control. The impact of plausible scenarios, with variable uptake and heterogeneous bubble sizes, can be mitigated with reduced numbers of contacts outside the household. Bubbling of households comes at an increased risk of transmission; however, under certain circumstances risks can be modest and could be balanced by other changes in behaviours. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Positive outcomes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

ISSUE ADDRESSED

To investigate whether Australians have experienced any positive effects during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

National online longitudinal survey. As part of a June 2020 survey, participants (n = 1370) were asked 'In your life, have you experienced any positive effects from the COVID-19 pandemic' (yes/no) and also completed the World Health Organisation-Five well-being index. Differences were explored by demographic variables. Free-text responses were thematically coded.

RESULTS

Nine hundred sixty participants (70%) reported experiencing at least one positive effect during the COVID-19 pandemic. Living with others (P = .045) and employment situation (P < .001) at baseline (April) were associated with experiencing positive effects. Individuals working for pay from home were more likely to experience positive effects compared to those who were not working for pay (aOR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.63, P < .001) or who were working for pay outside the home (aOR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.58, P < .001). 54.2% of participants reported a sufficient level of well-being, 23.2% low well-being and a further 22.6% very low well-being. Of those experiencing positive effects, 945/960 (98%) provided an explanation. The three most common themes were 'Family time' (33%), 'Work flexibility' (29%) and 'Calmer life' (19%).

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of participants reported positive effects resulting from changes to daily life due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

SO WHAT

The needs of people living alone, and of those having to work outside the home or who are unemployed, should be considered by health policymakers and employers in future pandemic preparedness efforts.

Modelling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic - Impact of lockdowns & interventions

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

To handle the current COVID-19 pandemic in India, multiple strategies have been applied and implemented to slow down the virus transmission. These included clinical management of active cases, rapid development of treatment strategies, vaccines computational modelling and statistical tools to name a few. This article presents a mathematical model for a time series prediction and analyzes the impact of the lockdown.

METHODS

Several existing mathematical models were not able to account for asymptomatic patients, with limited testing capability at onset and no data on serosurveillance. In this study, a new model was used which was developed on lines of susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered (SAIR) to assess the impact of the lockdown and make predictions on its future course. Four parameters were used, namely β, γ, η and ε. β measures the likelihood of the susceptible person getting infected, and γ denotes recovery rate of patients. The ratio β/γ is denoted by R0 (basic reproduction number).

RESULTS

The disease spread was reduced due to initial lockdown. An increase in γ reflects healthcare and hospital services, medications and protocols put in place. In Delhi, the predictions from the model were corroborated with July and September serosurveys, which showed antibodies in 23.5 and 33 per cent population, respectively.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS

The SAIR model has helped understand the disease better. If the model is correct, we may have reached herd immunity with about 380 million people already infected. However, personal protective measures remain crucial. If there was no lockdown, the number of active infections would have peaked at close to 14.7 million, resulted in more than 2.6 million deaths, and the peak would have arrived by June 2020. The number of deaths with the current trends may be less than 0.2 million.

The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.

Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control

Evidence indicates that superspreading plays a dominant role in COVID-19 transmission, so that a small fraction of infected people causes a large proportion of new COVID-19 cases. We developed an agent-based model that simulates a superspreading disease moving through a society with networks of both repeated contacts and nonrepeated, random contacts. The results indicate that superspreading is the virus’ Achilles’ heel: Reducing random contacts—such as those that occur at sporting events, restaurants, bars, and the like—can control the outbreak at population scales.

Increasing evidence indicates that superspreading plays a dominant role in COVID-19 transmission. Recent estimates suggest that the dispersion parameter k for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is on the order of 0.1, which corresponds to about 10% of cases being the source of 80% of infections. To investigate how overdispersion might affect the outcome of various mitigation strategies, we developed an agent-based model with a social network that allows transmission through contact in three sectors: “close” (a small, unchanging group of mutual contacts as might be found in a household), “regular” (a larger, unchanging group as might be found in a workplace or school), and “random” (drawn from the entire model population and not repeated regularly). We assigned individual infectivity from a gamma distribution with dispersion parameter k. We found that when k was low (i.e., greater heterogeneity, more superspreading events), reducing random sector contacts had a far greater impact on the epidemic trajectory than did reducing regular contacts; when k was high (i.e., less heterogeneity, no superspreading events), that difference disappeared. These results suggest that overdispersion of COVID-19 transmission gives the virus an Achilles’ heel: Reducing contacts between people who do not regularly meet would substantially reduce the pandemic, while reducing repeated contacts in defined social groups would be less effective.

The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.

The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.

Ways of Being Together During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Support Bubbles and the Legal Construction of Relationships

This article focuses on the concept of the support bubble. The concept was introduced in New Zealand in March 2020 in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic to denote a network of people with whom a person could have physical contact, and was later taken up in various forms elsewhere, particularly in the UK. The article focuses on the meaning that was attached to the concept and to the ways of being together that it encapsulated and stipulated. Where support bubbles were formalised as a matter of law, as in New Zealand and the UK, a particular form of relating was legally constructed and real relationships were affected through law. The article addresses the meaning and implications of the concept of the support bubble in this light. First, it considers the concept of the support bubble as a new legal form, which drew in, and built on, a range of relationships and then recast them in terms of a new legal form. Second, it analyses the central question posed by the concept as one of the meaning of being together in a support bubble, not only for those navigating and living with the concept in practice, but also as mediated in and through law. Third, it outlines how the concept of the support bubble represented a distinct legal development. It enabled those who were eligible to define for themselves, albeit within a specified framework, the meaning and nature of a relationship of support of this kind. It also supplied a space in which some kinds of relationships that had not necessarily attracted much previous legal attention-like friendships and dating relationships-came to find a degree of legal reflection and recognition.