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Fonseca M, MacKenna B, Mehrkar A, Walters CE, Hickman G, Pearson J, Fisher L, Inglesby P, Bacon S, Davy S, Hulme W, Goldacre B, Koffman O, Bakhai M. The Use of Online Consultation Systems or Remote Consulting in England Characterized Through the Primary Care Health Records of 53 Million People in the OpenSAFELY Platform: Retrospective Cohort Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e46485. [PMID: 39292500 PMCID: PMC11447420 DOI: 10.2196/46485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2023] [Revised: 07/18/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The National Health Service (NHS) Long Term Plan, published in 2019, committed to ensuring that every patient in England has the right to digital-first primary care by 2023-2024. The COVID-19 pandemic and infection prevention and control measures accelerated work by the NHS to enable and stimulate the use of online consultation (OC) systems across all practices for improved access to primary care. OBJECTIVE We aimed to explore general practice coding activity associated with the use of OC systems in terms of trends, COVID-19 effect, variation, and quality. METHODS With the approval of NHS England, the OpenSAFELY platform was used to query and analyze the in situ electronic health records of suppliers The Phoenix Partnership (TPP) and Egton Medical Information Systems, covering >53 million patients in >6400 practices, mainly in 2019-2020. Systematized Medical Nomenclature for Medicine-Clinical Terminology (SNOMED-CT) codes relevant to OC systems and written OCs were identified including eConsultation. Events were described by volumes and population rates, practice coverage, and trends before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Variation was characterized among practices, by sociodemographics, and by clinical history of long-term conditions. RESULTS Overall, 3,550,762 relevant coding events were found in practices using TPP, with the code eConsultation detected in 84.56% (2157/2551) of practices. Activity related to digital forms of interaction increased rapidly from March 2020, the onset of the pandemic; namely, in the second half of 2020, >9 monthly eConsultation coding events per 1000 registered population were registered compared to <1 a year prior. However, we found large variations among regions and practices: December 2020 saw the median practice have 0.9 coded instances per 1000 population compared to at least 36 for the highest decile of practices. On sociodemographics, the TPP cohort with OC instances, when compared (univariate analysis) to the cohort with general practitioner consultations, was more predominantly female (661,235/1,087,919, 60.78% vs 9,172,833/17,166,765, 53.43%), aged 18 to 40 years (349,162/1,080,589, 32.31% vs 4,295,711/17,000,942, 25.27%), White (730,389/1,087,919, 67.14% vs 10,887,858/17,166,765, 63.42%), and less deprived (167,889/1,068,887, 15.71% vs 3,376,403/16,867,074, 20.02%). Looking at the eConsultation code through multivariate analysis, it was more commonly recorded among patients with a history of asthma (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.131, 95% CI 1.124-1.137), depression (aOR 1.144, 95% CI 1.138-1.151), or atrial fibrillation (aOR 1.119, 95% CI 1.099-1.139) when compared to other patients with general practitioner consultations, adjusted for long-term conditions, age, and gender. CONCLUSIONS We successfully queried general practice coding activity relevant to the use of OC systems, showing increased adoption and key areas of variation during the pandemic at both sociodemographic and clinical levels. The work can be expanded to support monitoring of coding quality and underlying activity. This study suggests that large-scale impact evaluation studies can be implemented within the OpenSAFELY platform, namely looking at patient outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Brian MacKenna
- NHS England, London, United Kingdom
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Caroline E Walters
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - George Hickman
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Louis Fisher
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Peter Inglesby
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Seb Bacon
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Simon Davy
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - William Hulme
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Goldacre
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Schaffer AL, Andrews CD, Brown AD, Croker R, Hulme WJ, Nab L, Quinlan J, Speed V, Wood C, Wiedemann M, Massey J, Inglesby P, Bacon SCJ, Mehrkar A, Bates C, Goldacre B, Walker AJ, MacKenna B. Changes in opioid prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic in England: an interrupted time-series analysis in the OpenSAFELY-TTP cohort. Lancet Public Health 2024; 9:e432-e442. [PMID: 38942555 PMCID: PMC7616651 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00100-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2024] [Revised: 04/26/2024] [Accepted: 05/08/2024] [Indexed: 06/30/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health-care delivery, including difficulty accessing in-person care, which could have increased the need for strong pharmacological pain relief. Due to the risks associated with overprescribing of opioids, especially to vulnerable populations, we aimed to quantify changes to measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, overall, and by key subgroups. METHODS For this interrupted time-series analysis study conducted in England, with National Health Service England approval, we used routine clinical data from more than 20 million general practice adult patients in OpenSAFELY-TPP, which is a a secure software platform for analysis of electronic health records. We included all adults registered with a primary care practice using TPP-SystmOne software. Using interrupted time-series analysis, we quantified prevalent and new opioid prescribing before the COVID-19 pandemic (January, 2018-February, 2020), during the lockdown (March, 2020-March, 2021), and recovery periods (April, 2021-June, 2022), overall and stratified by demographics (age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, and geographical region) and in people in care homes identified via an address-matching algorithm. FINDINGS There was little change in prevalent prescribing during the pandemic, except for a temporary increase in March, 2020. We observed a 9·8% (95% CI -14·5 to -6·5) reduction in new opioid prescribing from March, 2020, with a levelling of the downward trend, and rebounding slightly after April, 2021 (4·1%, 95% CI -0·9 to 9·4). Opioid prescribing rates varied by demographics, but we found a reduction in new prescribing for all subgroups except people aged 80 years or older. Among care home residents, in April, 2020, parenteral opioid prescribing increased by 186·3% (153·1 to 223·9). INTERPRETATION Opioid prescribing increased temporarily among older people and care home residents, likely reflecting use to treat end-of-life COVID-19 symptoms. Despite vulnerable populations being more affected by health-care disruptions, disparities in opioid prescribing by most demographic subgroups did not widen during the pandemic. Further research is needed to understand what is driving the changes in new opioid prescribing and its relation to changes to health-care provision during the pandemic. FUNDING The Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, The National Institute for Health and Care Research, UK Research and Innovation, and Health Data Research UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea L Schaffer
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Colm D Andrews
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Andrew D Brown
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard Croker
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - William J Hulme
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Linda Nab
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Victoria Speed
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; King's Thrombosis Centre, King's College Hospital, London, UK
| | - Christopher Wood
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Milan Wiedemann
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jon Massey
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Peter Inglesby
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Seb C J Bacon
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Ben Goldacre
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Alex J Walker
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Brian MacKenna
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Garner A, Preston N, Caiado CCS, Stubington E, Hanratty B, Limb J, Mason SM, Knight J. Understanding health service utilisation patterns for care home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic using routinely collected healthcare data. BMC Geriatr 2024; 24:449. [PMID: 38783195 PMCID: PMC11112834 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-024-05062-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthcare in care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic required a balance, providing treatment while minimising exposure risk. Policy for how residents should receive care changed rapidly throughout the pandemic. A lack of accessible data on care home residents over this time meant policy decisions were difficult to make and verify. This study investigates common patterns of healthcare utilisation for care home residents in relation to COVID-19 testing events, and associations between utilisation patterns and resident characteristics. METHODS Datasets from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust including secondary care, community care and a care home telehealth app are linked by NHS number used to define daily healthcare utilisation sequences for care home residents. We derive four 10-day sets of sequences related to Pillar 1 COVID-19 testing; before [1] and after [2] a resident's first positive test and before [3] and after [4] a resident's first test. These sequences are clustered, grouping residents with similar healthcare patterns in each set. Association of individual characteristics (e.g. health conditions such as diabetes and dementia) with healthcare patterns are investigated. RESULTS We demonstrate how routinely collected health data can be used to produce longitudinal descriptions of patient care. Clustered sequences [1,2,3,4] are produced for 3,471 care home residents tested between 01/03/2020-01/09/2021. Clusters characterised by higher levels of utilisation were significantly associated with higher prevalence of diabetes. Dementia is associated with higher levels of care after a testing event and appears to be correlated with a hospital discharge after a first test. Residents discharged from inpatient care within 10 days of their first test had the same mortality rate as those who stayed in hospital. CONCLUSION We provide longitudinal, resident-level data on care home resident healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that vulnerable residents were associated with higher levels of healthcare usage despite the additional risks. Implications of findings are limited by the challenges of routinely collected data. However, this study demonstrates the potential for further research into healthcare pathways using linked, routinely collected datasets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Garner
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancashire, England.
| | - Nancy Preston
- Division of Health Research, Lancaster University, Lancashire, England
| | - Camila C S Caiado
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, England
| | - Emma Stubington
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancashire, England
| | - Barbara Hanratty
- Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle, England
| | - James Limb
- County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust, Darlington, England
| | - Suzanne M Mason
- School of Health and Related Research, The University of Sheffield, South Yorkshire, England
| | - Jo Knight
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancashire, England
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Macdonald O, Green A, Walker A, Curtis H, Croker R, Brown A, Butler-Cole B, Andrews C, Massey J, Inglesby P, Morton C, Fisher L, Morley J, Mehrkar A, Bacon S, Davy S, Evans D, Dillingham I, Ward T, Hulme W, Bates C, Cockburn J, Parry J, Hester F, Harper S, O'Hanlon S, Eavis A, Jarvis R, Avramov D, Parkes N, Wood I, Goldacre B, Mackenna B. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antipsychotic prescribing in individuals with autism, dementia, learning disability, serious mental illness or living in a care home: a federated analysis of 59 million patients' primary care records in situ using OpenSAFELY. BMJ MENTAL HEALTH 2023; 26:e300775. [PMID: 37714668 PMCID: PMC11146375 DOI: 10.1136/bmjment-2023-300775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic affected how care was delivered to vulnerable patients, such as those with dementia or learning disability. OBJECTIVE To explore whether this affected antipsychotic prescribing in at-risk populations. METHODS With the approval of NHS England, we completed a retrospective cohort study, using the OpenSAFELY platform to explore primary care data of 59 million patients. We identified patients in five at-risk groups: autism, dementia, learning disability, serious mental illness and care home residents. We calculated the monthly prevalence of antipsychotic prescribing in these groups, as well as the incidence of new prescriptions in each month. FINDINGS The average monthly rate of antipsychotic prescribing increased in dementia from 82.75 patients prescribed an antipsychotic per 1000 patients (95% CI 82.30 to 83.19) in January-March 2019 to 90.1 (95% CI 89.68 to 90.60) in October-December 2021 and from 154.61 (95% CI 153.79 to 155.43) to 166.95 (95% CI 166.23 to 167.67) in care homes. There were notable spikes in the rate of new prescriptions issued to patients with dementia and in care homes. In learning disability and autism groups, the rate of prescribing per 1000 decreased from 122.97 (95% CI 122.29 to 123.66) to 119.29 (95% CI 118.68 to 119.91) and from 54.91 (95% CI 54.52 to 55.29) to 51.04 (95% CI 50.74 to 51.35), respectively. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS We observed a spike in antipsychotic prescribing in the dementia and care home groups, which correlated with lockdowns and was likely due to prescribing of antipsychotics for palliative care. We observed gradual increases in antipsychotic use in dementia and care home patients and decreases in their use in patients with learning disability or autism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Orla Macdonald
- Pharmacy, Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - Amelia Green
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Alex Walker
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Helen Curtis
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard Croker
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Andrew Brown
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Ben Butler-Cole
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Colm Andrews
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Jon Massey
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Peter Inglesby
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Caroline Morton
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Louis Fisher
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Jessica Morley
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Sebastian Bacon
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon Davy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - David Evans
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Iain Dillingham
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Tom Ward
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - William Hulme
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ben Goldacre
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Brian Mackenna
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
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Cowley LE, Hodgson K, Song J, Whiffen T, Tan J, John A, Bandyopadhyay A, Davies AR. Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of clinically extremely vulnerable children and children living with clinically extremely vulnerable people in Wales: a data linkage study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e067882. [PMID: 37328187 PMCID: PMC10276955 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-067882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine whether clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) children or children living with a CEV person in Wales were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression in primary or secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with children in the general population and to compare patterns of anxiety and depression during the pandemic (23 March 2020-31 January 2021, referred to as 2020/2021) and before the pandemic (23 March 2019-31 January 2020, referred to as 2019/2020), between CEV children and the general population. DESIGN Population-based cross-sectional cohort study using anonymised, linked, routinely collected health and administrative data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. CEV individuals were identified using the COVID-19 shielded patient list. SETTING Primary and secondary healthcare settings covering 80% of the population of Wales. PARTICIPANTS Children aged 2-17 in Wales: CEV (3769); living with a CEV person (20 033); or neither (415 009). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE First record of anxiety or depression in primary or secondary healthcare in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021, identified using Read and International Classification of Diseases V.10 codes. RESULTS A Cox regression model adjusted for demographics and history of anxiety or depression revealed that only CEV children were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression during the pandemic compared with the general population (HR=2.27, 95% CI=1.94 to 2.66, p<0.001). Compared with the general population, the risk among CEV children was higher in 2020/2021 (risk ratio 3.04) compared with 2019/2020 (risk ratio 1.90). In 2020/2021, the period prevalence of anxiety or depression increased slightly among CEV children, but declined among the general population. CONCLUSIONS Differences in the period prevalence of recorded anxiety or depression in healthcare between CEV children and the general population were largely driven by a reduction in presentations to healthcare services by children in the general population during the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Karen Hodgson
- Research and Evaluation Division, Public Health Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - Jiao Song
- Health Protection Division, Public Health Wales, Cardiff, UK
| | - Tony Whiffen
- Administrative Data Research Unit, Welsh Government, Cardiff, UK
| | - Jacinta Tan
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ann John
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK
| | - Amrita Bandyopadhyay
- National Centre for Population Health and Wellbeing Research, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Alisha R Davies
- Research and Evaluation Division, Public Health Wales, Cardiff, UK
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Shenkin SD, Johnston L, Hockley J, Henderson DAG. Developing a care home data platform in Scotland: a mixed methods study of data routinely collected in care homes. Age Ageing 2022; 51:6931853. [PMID: 36580390 PMCID: PMC9799192 DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afac265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND care homes collect extensive data about their residents, and their care, in multiple ways, for multiple purposes. We aimed to (i) identify what data are routinely collected and (ii) collate care home managers' views and experiences of collecting, using and sharing data. METHODS we examined data collected in six care homes across Lothian, Scotland. We extracted the meta-data, cross-referenced definitions and assessed the degree of harmonisation between care homes and with data sets currently in use in Scotland and internationally. We interviewed care home managers about their views and experiences of collecting, using and sharing data. RESULTS we identified 15 core data items used routinely, with significant heterogeneity in tools and assessments used, and very limited harmonisation. Two overarching themes were identified of importance to the development of a care home data platform: (i) the rationale for collecting data, including to (a) support person-centred care, (b) share information, (c) manage workforce and budget and (d) provide evidence to statutory bodies and (ii) the reality of collecting data, including data accuracy, and understanding data in context. DISCUSSION considerable information is collected by care home staff, in varied formats, with heterogeneity of scope and definition, for range of reasons. We discuss the issues that should be considered to ensure that individual resident-level form the strong foundations for any data platform for care homes, which must also include, robust infrastructure and clear interoperability, with appropriate governance. It must be co-produced by academics, policy makers and sector representatives, with residents, their families and care staff.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan D Shenkin
- Address correspondence to: Susan D. Shenkin, Ageing and Health Research Group and Advanced Care Research Centre, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Room F1425B, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, UK.
| | | | - Jo Hockley
- Primary Palliative Care Research Group, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - David A G Henderson
- School of Health and Social Care, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK,Centre for Population Health Sciences, Usher Insitute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Sheridan C, Klompmaker J, Cummins S, James P, Fecht D, Roscoe C. Associations of air pollution with COVID-19 positivity, hospitalisations, and mortality: Observational evidence from UK Biobank. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2022; 308:119686. [PMID: 35779662 PMCID: PMC9243647 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2022] [Revised: 06/22/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Individual-level studies with adjustment for important COVID-19 risk factors suggest positive associations of long-term air pollution exposure (particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) with COVID-19 infection, hospitalisations and mortality. The evidence, however, remains limited and mechanisms unclear. We aimed to investigate these associations within UK Biobank, and to examine the role of underlying chronic disease as a potential mechanism. UK Biobank COVID-19 positive laboratory test results were ascertained via Public Health England and general practitioner record linkage, COVID-19 hospitalisations via Hospital Episode Statistics, and COVID-19 mortality via Office for National Statistics mortality records from March-December 2020. We used annual average outdoor air pollution modelled at 2010 residential addresses of UK Biobank participants who resided in England (n = 424,721). We obtained important COVID-19 risk factors from baseline UK Biobank questionnaire responses (2006-2010) and general practitioner record linkage. We used logistic regression models to assess associations of air pollution with COVID-19 outcomes, adjusted for relevant confounders, and conducted sensitivity analyses. We found positive associations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with COVID-19 positive test result after adjustment for confounders and COVID-19 risk factors, with odds ratios of 1.05 (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.02, 1.08), and 1.05 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.08), respectively. PM 2.5 and NO 2 were positively associated with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in minimally adjusted models, but not in fully adjusted models. No associations for PM10 were found. In analyses with additional adjustment for pre-existing chronic disease, effect estimates were not substantially attenuated, indicating that underlying chronic disease may not fully explain associations. We found some evidence that long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 was associated with a COVID-19 positive test result in UK Biobank, though not with COVID-19 hospitalisations or deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Sheridan
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St., London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
| | - Jochem Klompmaker
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, United States.
| | - Steven Cummins
- Population Health Innovation Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St., London, United Kingdom.
| | - Peter James
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, United States; Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, 401 Park Drive, Suite 401 East, Boston, MA, 02215, United States.
| | - Daniela Fecht
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
| | - Charlotte Roscoe
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, United States; MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom; Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 181 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, United States.
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Schultze A, Nightingale E, Evans D, Hulme W, Rosello A, Bates C, Cockburn J, MacKenna B, Curtis HJ, Morton CE, Croker R, Bacon S, McDonald HI, Rentsch CT, Bhaskaran K, Mathur R, Tomlinson LA, Williamson EJ, Forbes H, Tazare J, Grint D, Walker AJ, Inglesby P, DeVito NJ, Mehrkar A, Hickman G, Davy S, Ward T, Fisher L, Green ACA, Wing K, Wong AYS, McManus R, Parry J, Hester F, Harper S, Evans SJW, Douglas IJ, Smeeth L, Eggo RM, Goldacre B, Leon DA. Mortality among Care Home Residents in England during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study of 4.3 million adults over the age of 65. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2022; 14:100295. [PMID: 35036983 PMCID: PMC8743167 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Residents in care homes have been severely impacted by COVID-19. We describe trends in the mortality risk among residents of care homes compared to private homes. METHODS On behalf of NHS England we used OpenSAFELY-TPP to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to Care and Quality Commission data. FINDINGS We included 4,340,648 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to those in private housing in February 2019: comparative mortality figure (CMF) = 10.59 (95%CI = 9.51, 11.81) among women, and 10.87 (9.93, 11.90) among men. By April 2020 these relative differences had increased to more than 17 times with CMFs of 17.57 (16.43, 18.79) among women and 18.17 (17.22, 19.17) among men. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks. INTERPRETATION COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the mortality of care home residents in England compared to older residents of private homes, but only in the first wave. This may be explained by a degree of acquired immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling COVID-19. FUNDING Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Schultze
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Emily Nightingale
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - David Evans
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - William Hulme
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Alicia Rosello
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Chris Bates
- TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX
| | | | - Brian MacKenna
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Helen J Curtis
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Caroline E Morton
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Richard Croker
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Seb Bacon
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Helen I McDonald
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | | | - Krishnan Bhaskaran
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Rohini Mathur
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Laurie A Tomlinson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | | | - Harriet Forbes
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - John Tazare
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Daniel Grint
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Alex J Walker
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Peter Inglesby
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Nicholas J DeVito
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - George Hickman
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Simon Davy
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Tom Ward
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Louis Fisher
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Amelia CA Green
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - Kevin Wing
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Angel YS Wong
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Robert McManus
- TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX
| | - John Parry
- TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX
| | - Frank Hester
- TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX
| | - Sam Harper
- TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX
| | - Stephen JW Evans
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Ian J Douglas
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Liam Smeeth
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Rosalind M Eggo
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
| | - Ben Goldacre
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG
| | - David A Leon
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- International Laboratory For Population and Health, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
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9
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Trends and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 vaccine recipients: a federated analysis of 57.9 million patients’ primary care records in situ using OpenSAFELY. Br J Gen Pract 2022; 72:e51-e62. [PMID: 34750106 PMCID: PMC8589463 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp.2021.0376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND On 8 December 2020 NHS England administered the first COVID-19 vaccination. AIM To describe trends and variation in vaccine coverage in different clinical and demographic groups in the first 100 days of the vaccine rollout. DESIGN AND SETTING With the approval of NHS England, a cohort study was conducted of 57.9 million patient records in general practice in England, in situ and within the infrastructure of the electronic health record software vendors EMIS and TPP using OpenSAFELY. METHOD Vaccine coverage across various subgroups of Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) priority cohorts is described. RESULTS A total of 20 852 692 patients (36.0%) received a vaccine between 8 December 2020 and 17 March 2021. Of patients aged ≥80 years not in a care home (JCVI group 2) 94.7% received a vaccine, but with substantial variation by ethnicity (White 96.2%, Black 68.3%) and deprivation (least deprived 96.6%, most deprived 90.7%). Patients with pre-existing medical conditions were more likely to be vaccinated with two exceptions: severe mental illness (89.5%) and learning disability (91.4%). There were 275 205 vaccine recipients who were identified as care home residents (JCVI group 1; 91.2% coverage). By 17 March, 1 257 914 (6.0%) recipients had a second dose. CONCLUSION The NHS rapidly delivered mass vaccination. In this study a data-monitoring framework was deployed using publicly auditable methods and a secure in situ processing model, using linked but pseudonymised patient-level NHS data for 57.9 million patients. Targeted activity may be needed to address lower vaccination coverage observed among certain key groups.
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10
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Bhaskaran K, Rentsch CT, Hickman G, Hulme WJ, Schultze A, Curtis HJ, Wing K, Warren-Gash C, Tomlinson L, Bates CJ, Mathur R, MacKenna B, Mahalingasivam V, Wong A, Walker AJ, Morton CE, Grint D, Mehrkar A, Eggo RM, Inglesby P, Douglas IJ, McDonald HI, Cockburn J, Williamson EJ, Evans D, Parry J, Hester F, Harper S, Evans SJW, Bacon S, Smeeth L, Goldacre B. Overall and cause-specific hospitalisation and death after COVID-19 hospitalisation in England: A cohort study using linked primary care, secondary care, and death registration data in the OpenSAFELY platform. PLoS Med 2022; 19:e1003871. [PMID: 35077449 PMCID: PMC8789178 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003871] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is concern about medium to long-term adverse outcomes following acute Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), but little relevant evidence exists. We aimed to investigate whether risks of hospital admission and death, overall and by specific cause, are raised following discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalisation. METHODS AND FINDINGS With the approval of NHS-England, we conducted a cohort study, using linked primary care and hospital data in OpenSAFELY to compare risks of hospital admission and death, overall and by specific cause, between people discharged from COVID-19 hospitalisation (February to December 2020) and surviving at least 1 week, and (i) demographically matched controls from the 2019 general population; and (ii) people discharged from influenza hospitalisation in 2017 to 2019. We used Cox regression adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, obesity, smoking status, deprivation, and comorbidities considered potential risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes. We included 24,673 postdischarge COVID-19 patients, 123,362 general population controls, and 16,058 influenza controls, followed for ≤315 days. COVID-19 patients had median age of 66 years, 13,733 (56%) were male, and 19,061 (77%) were of white ethnicity. Overall risk of hospitalisation or death (30,968 events) was higher in the COVID-19 group than general population controls (fully adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.22, 2.14 to 2.30, p < 0.001) but slightly lower than the influenza group (aHR 0.95, 0.91 to 0.98, p = 0.004). All-cause mortality (7,439 events) was highest in the COVID-19 group (aHR 4.82, 4.48 to 5.19 versus general population controls [p < 0.001] and 1.74, 1.61 to 1.88 versus influenza controls [p < 0.001]). Risks for cause-specific outcomes were higher in COVID-19 survivors than in general population controls and largely similar or lower in COVID-19 compared with influenza patients. However, COVID-19 patients were more likely than influenza patients to be readmitted or die due to their initial infection or other lower respiratory tract infection (aHR 1.37, 1.22 to 1.54, p < 0.001) and to experience mental health or cognitive-related admission or death (aHR 1.37, 1.02 to 1.84, p = 0.039); in particular, COVID-19 survivors with preexisting dementia had higher risk of dementia hospitalisation or death (age- and sex-adjusted HR 2.47, 1.37 to 4.44, p = 0.002). Limitations of our study were that reasons for hospitalisation or death may have been misclassified in some cases due to inconsistent use of codes, and we did not have data to distinguish COVID-19 variants. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we observed that people discharged from a COVID-19 hospital admission had markedly higher risks for rehospitalisation and death than the general population, suggesting a substantial extra burden on healthcare. Most risks were similar to those observed after influenza hospitalisations, but COVID-19 patients had higher risks of all-cause mortality, readmission or death due to the initial infection, and dementia death, highlighting the importance of postdischarge monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Krishnan Bhaskaran
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher T. Rentsch
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - George Hickman
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - William J. Hulme
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Anna Schultze
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Helen J. Curtis
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Kevin Wing
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Charlotte Warren-Gash
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Laurie Tomlinson
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Rohini Mathur
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Brian MacKenna
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Viyaasan Mahalingasivam
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Angel Wong
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Alex J. Walker
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Caroline E. Morton
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Grint
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Rosalind M. Eggo
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Peter Inglesby
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Ian J. Douglas
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Helen I. McDonald
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Elizabeth J. Williamson
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - David Evans
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - John Parry
- TPP, TPP House, Horsforth, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Frank Hester
- TPP, TPP House, Horsforth, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Sam Harper
- TPP, TPP House, Horsforth, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen JW Evans
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Bacon
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Liam Smeeth
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Goldacre
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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11
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Carey IM, Cook DG, Harris T, DeWilde S, Chaudhry UAR, Strachan DP. Risk factors for excess all-cause mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England: A retrospective cohort study of primary care data. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0260381. [PMID: 34882700 PMCID: PMC8659693 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic's first wave in England during spring 2020 resulted in an approximate 50% increase in all-cause mortality. Previously, risk factors such as age and ethnicity, were identified by studying COVID-related deaths only, but these were under-recorded during this period. OBJECTIVE To use a large electronic primary care database to estimate the impact of risk factors (RFs) on excess mortality in England during the first wave, compared with the impact on total mortality during 2015-19. METHODS Medical history, ethnicity, area-based deprivation and vital status data were extracted for an average of 4.8 million patients aged 30-104 years, for each year between 18-March and 19-May over a 6-year period (2015-2020). We used Poisson regression to model total mortality adjusting for age and sex, with interactions between each RF and period (pandemic vs. 2015-19). Total mortality during the pandemic was partitioned into "usual" and "excess" components, assuming 2015-19 rates represented "usual" mortality. The association of each RF with the 2020 "excess" component was derived as the excess mortality ratio (EMR), and compared with the usual mortality ratio (UMR). RESULTS RFs where excess mortality was greatest and notably higher than usual were age >80, non-white ethnicity (e.g., black vs. white EMR = 2.50, 95%CI 1.97-3.18; compared to UMR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.85-1.00), BMI>40, dementia, learning disability, severe mental illness, place of residence (London, care-home, most deprived). By contrast, EMRs were comparable to UMRs for sex. Although some co-morbidities such as cancer produced EMRs significantly below their UMRs, the EMRs were still >1. In contrast current smoking has an EMR below 1 (EMR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.65-0.98) compared to its UMR = 1.64. CONCLUSIONS Studying risk factors for excess mortality during the pandemic highlighted differences from studying cause-specific mortality. Our approach illustrates a novel methodology for evaluating a pandemic's impact by individual risk factor without requiring cause-specific mortality data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iain M. Carey
- Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Derek G. Cook
- Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tess Harris
- Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen DeWilde
- Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Umar A. R. Chaudhry
- Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - David P. Strachan
- Population Health Research Institute, St George’s, University of London, London, United Kingdom
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12
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Williamson EJ, McDonald HI, Bhaskaran K, Walker AJ, Bacon S, Davy S, Schultze A, Tomlinson L, Bates C, Ramsay M, Curtis HJ, Forbes H, Wing K, Minassian C, Tazare J, Morton CE, Nightingale E, Mehrkar A, Evans D, Inglesby P, MacKenna B, Cockburn J, Rentsch CT, Mathur R, Wong AYS, Eggo RM, Hulme W, Croker R, Parry J, Hester F, Harper S, Douglas IJ, Evans SJW, Smeeth L, Goldacre B, Kuper H. Risks of covid-19 hospital admission and death for people with learning disability: population based cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform. BMJ 2021; 374:n1592. [PMID: 34261639 PMCID: PMC8278652 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.n1592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the association between learning disability and risk of hospital admission and death from covid-19 in England among adults and children. DESIGN Population based cohort study on behalf of NHS England using the OpenSAFELY platform. SETTING Patient level data were obtained for more than 17 million people registered with a general practice in England that uses TPP software. Electronic health records were linked with death data from the Office for National Statistics and hospital admission data from NHS Secondary Uses Service. PARTICIPANTS Adults (aged 16-105 years) and children (<16 years) from two cohorts: wave 1 (registered with a TPP practice as of 1 March 2020 and followed until 31 August 2020); and wave 2 (registered 1 September 2020 and followed until 8 February 2021). The main exposure group consisted of people on a general practice learning disability register; a subgroup was defined as those having profound or severe learning disability. People with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy were identified (whether or not they were on the learning disability register). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Covid-19 related hospital admission and covid-19 related death. Non-covid-19 deaths were also explored. RESULTS For wave 1, 14 312 023 adults aged ≥16 years were included, and 90 307 (0.63%) were on the learning disability register. Among adults on the register, 538 (0.6%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission; there were 222 (0.25%) covid-19 related deaths and 602 (0.7%) non-covid deaths. Among adults not on the register, 29 781 (0.2%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission; there were 13 737 (0.1%) covid-19 related deaths and 69 837 (0.5%) non-covid deaths. Wave 1 hazard ratios for adults on the learning disability register (adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and geographical location) were 5.3 (95% confidence interval 4.9 to 5.8) for covid-19 related hospital admission and 8.2 (7.2 to 9.4) for covid-19 related death. Wave 2 produced similar estimates. Associations were stronger among those classified as having severe to profound learning disability, and among those in residential care. For both waves, Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy were associated with increased hazards for both events; Down's syndrome to a greater extent. Hazard ratios for non-covid deaths followed similar patterns with weaker associations. Similar patterns of increased relative risk were seen for children, but covid-19 related deaths and hospital admissions were rare, reflecting low event rates among children. CONCLUSIONS People with learning disability have markedly increased risks of hospital admission and death from covid-19, over and above the risks observed for non-covid causes of death. Prompt access to covid-19 testing and healthcare is warranted for this vulnerable group, and prioritisation for covid-19 vaccination and other targeted preventive measures should be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Helen I McDonald
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation, London, UK
| | | | - Alex J Walker
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sebastian Bacon
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon Davy
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anna Schultze
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | - Mary Ramsay
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation, London, UK
- Public Health England, London, UK
| | - Helen J Curtis
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Kevin Wing
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - John Tazare
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Caroline E Morton
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Amir Mehrkar
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Dave Evans
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Peter Inglesby
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Brian MacKenna
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | - Rohini Mathur
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Angel Y S Wong
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - William Hulme
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard Croker
- The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | | | - Ian J Douglas
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Liam Smeeth
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ben Goldacre
- National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation, London, UK
| | - Hannah Kuper
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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