Orphanhood and human capital destruction: is there persistence into adulthood?

Early life shock and labour market outcomes: Panel data evidence from South Africa

Adverse life events have short- and long-term effects on the livelihood of victims. This paper studies the effect of early life idiosyncratic shocks on labour market outcomes using five rounds of panel data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) of South Africa. Regression results from alternative panel data estimators suggest that the loss of biological parents early in life is negatively associated with the likelihood of employment and wage earnings. The association is stronger when one loses one's biological mother than one's biological father. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the loss of a biological father among Black South Africans leads to higher wage earnings compared to other race groups who have experienced the same shock. Education level, perceived health, cognitive ability, and occupation type are strongly associated with the loss of a biological mother, while only education is associated with the loss of a father. These could be the main channels that mediate the link between early life loss of biological parents and labour market outcomes. Therefore, strengthening and aligning child support programmes to reach the victims are required.

Parental absence as an adverse childhood experience among young adults in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Parental absence in childhood has been associated with multiple negative consequences, such as depression and anxiety in young adulthood.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether parental absence for six months or more in childhood is associated with poor mental health and substance use in young adulthood and whether parental absence accounts for additional variance beyond those explained by other adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) among youth in sub-Saharan Africa.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTINGS

We used combined Violence Against Children and Youth Survey (VACS) data from Cote d'Ivoire (2018), Lesotho (2018), Kenya (2019), Namibia (2019), and Mozambique (2019). Analyses were restricted to 18-24-year-olds (nf = 7699; nm = 2482).

METHODS

We used logistic regression to examine sex-stratified relationships between parental absence in childhood (defined as biological mother or father being away for six months or more before age 18) and mental health problems and substance use and whether parental absence explained additional variance beyond those explained by other ACEs.

RESULTS

In sub-Saharan Africa, parental absence in childhood was common (30.5 % in females and 25.1 % in males), significantly associated with poor mental health and substance use among females and males and accounted for additional variance beyond those explained by conventional ACEs. For example, after controlling for study covariates and other ACEs, females who experienced any parental absence had 1.52 (95 % CI = 1.02-2.26) higher odds of experiencing moderate/serious psychological distress compared with those who did not.

CONCLUSION

The observed association between parental absence and poor mental health suggests that this experience has significant adverse consequences and merits consideration as an ACE.

Anthropometrics of Estonian children in relation to family disruption: Thrifty phenotype and Trivers-Willard effects

Background and objectives

The thrifty phenotype hypothesis proposes that at resource limitation, the growth of some organs/tissues is selectively spared to preserve more critical ones, such as the brain or lungs. The Trivers–Willard hypothesis (TWH) predicts that boys are more vulnerable in the case of resource limitation than girls. Both hypotheses were tested in children from disrupted families, differing in the extent of deprivation/adversities imposed on them.

Methodology

In a retrospective cohort study in the mid-20th century Estonia (Juhan Aul’s database), different types of orphans and children of divorced parents (treatment groups; n = 106–1401) were compared with children from bi-parental families (control groups; n = 2548–8648) so that children from treatment groups were matched with control children on the basis of sex, age, year of birth, urban versus rural origin and socioeconomic position.

Results

Children in orphanages suffered strong growth suppression, best explained by psychosocial deprivation. Their feet were on average 0.5 SD shorter than the feet of the controls, followed by height, leg/torso ratio and cranial volume that differed from controls by ca 0.4 SD. Weight difference was 0.2 SD units, while body mass index did not differ from controls. The growth of boys and girls in orphanages was suppressed to the same extent. Boys whose mothers were dead were relatively smaller and less masculine than girls from such families. Fathers’ absence was unrelated to growth suppression. Sons of divorced parents had broader shoulders than boys whose fathers were dead.

Conclusions and implications

Prediction of TWH about the greater vulnerability of male growth may hold under some conditions but not universally. Predictions of the thrifty phenotype hypothesis were partly supported: trunk growth was spared at the expense of leg growth; however, no evidence for brain sparing was found. Comparison of children of divorced versus dead fathers may appear useful for indirect assessment of sexual selection on offspring quality.

Lay Summary: Boys and girls in orphanages suffered similarly strong growth suppression, best explained by psychosocial deprivation. Boys whose mothers were dead were relatively smaller and less masculine than girls from such families. The occurrence of sex-specific associations between family structure and children’s growth depends on the type of family disruption.

The transmission of health across 7 generations in China, 1789-1906

We study the intergenerational transmission of health using registered data from China between 1789 and 1906. We first document the intergenerational correlations in lifespans, and we find much higher correlations for mothers, compared to fathers. We then compare children born from brother and twin fathers, and the intergenerational transmission from fathers becomes weaker and is likely to be mostly driven by genetic factors. On the contrary, our results suggest a strong role of women in affecting their children's health outcomes across generations in developing countries.

Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation.

METHODS

We used mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated deaths of primary or secondary caregivers for children younger than 18 years in 21 countries. We considered parents and custodial grandparents as primary caregivers, and co-residing grandparents or older kin (aged 60-84 years) as secondary caregivers. To avoid overcounting, we adjusted for possible clustering of deaths using an estimated secondary attack rate and age-specific infection-fatality ratios for SARS-CoV-2. We used these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children who have experienced COVID-19-associated deaths of primary and secondary caregivers.

FINDINGS

Globally, from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, we estimate 1 134 000 children (95% credible interval 884 000-1 185 000) experienced the death of primary caregivers, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent. 1 562 000 children (1 299 000-1 683 000) experienced the death of at least one primary or secondary caregiver. Countries in our study set with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1000 children included Peru (10·2 per 1000 children), South Africa (5·1), Mexico (3·5), Brazil (2·4), Colombia (2·3), Iran (1·7), the USA (1·5), Argentina (1·1), and Russia (1·0). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15-50 years. Between two and five times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers.

INTERPRETATION

Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families to nurture children bereft of caregivers and help to ensure that institutionalisation is avoided. These data show the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood

Background

The population effects of armed conflict on non-combatant vulnerable populations are incompletely understood. We aimed to study the effects of conflict on mortality among women of childbearing age (15–49 years) and on orphanhood among children younger than 15 years in Africa.

Methods

We tested the extent to which mortality among women aged 15–49 years, and orphanhood among children younger than 15 years, increased in response to nearby armed conflict in Africa. Data on location, timing, and intensity of armed conflicts were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and data on the location, timing, and outcomes of women and children from Demographic and Health Surveys done in 35 African countries from 1990 to 2016. Mortality among women was obtained from sibling survival data. We used cluster-area fixed-effects regression models to compare survival of women during periods of nearby conflict (within 50 km) to survival of women in the same area during times without conflict. We used similar methods to examine the extent to which children living near armed conflicts are at increased risk of becoming orphans. We examined the effects of varying conflict intensity using number of direct battle deaths and duration of consecutive conflict exposure.

Findings

We analysed data on 1 629 352 women (19 286 387 person-years), of which 103 011 (6·3%) died (534·1 deaths per 100 000 women-years), and 2 354 041 children younger than 15 years, of which 204 276 (8·7%) had lost a parent. On average, conflict within 50 km increased women's mortality by 112 deaths per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 97–128; a 21% increase above baseline), and the probability that a child has lost at least one parent by 6·0% (95% CI 3–8). This effect was driven by high-intensity conflicts: exposure to the highest (tenth) decile conflict in terms of conflict-related deaths increased the probability of female mortality by 202% (187–218) and increased the likelihood of orphanhood by 42% compared with a conflict-free period. Among the conflict-attributed deaths, 10% were due to maternal mortality.

Interpretation

African women of childbearing age are at a substantially increased risk of death from nearby high-intensity armed conflicts. Children exposed to conflict are analogously at increased risk of becoming orphans. This work fills gaps in literature on the harmful effects of armed conflict on non-combatants and highlights the need for humanitarian interventions to protect vulnerable populations.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the BRANCH Consortium.

Divorce, living arrangements, and material well-being during the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi

In this paper, we use longitudinal data to investigate how parental death and divorce influence young women's own experience of divorce in Malawi, a setting where women marry relatively early and unions are fragile. We find that maternal death and parental divorce are positively associated with divorce for young women but, after controlling for socio-demographic and marital characteristics, only the association with maternal death remains statistically significant. Maternal and paternal death are both strongly associated with women's post-divorce living arrangements, which in turn affects their material well-being. This finding suggests that divorcing at a young age shapes the subsequent life chances of women; although some women return to their parental home and may have the opportunity to reset the transition to adulthood, other women begin their 20s as head of their own household and with considerable material disadvantage.

Weight and height growth of malnourished school-age children during re-feeding. Three historic studies published shortly after World War I

BACKGROUND

In view of the ongoing debate on "chronic malnutrition" and the concept of "stunting" as "a better measure than underweight of the cumulative effects of undernutrition and infection (WHO)", we translate, briefly comment and re-publish three seminal historic papers on catch-up growth following re-feeding after severe food restriction of German children during and after World War I. The observations were published in 1920 and 1922, and appear to be of particular interest to the modern nutritionist.

RESULTS

The papers of Abderhalden (1920) and Bloch (1920) describe German children of all social strata who were born shortly before World War I, and raised in apparently "normal" families. After severe long-standing undernutrition, they participated in an international charity program. They experienced exceptional catch-up growth in height of 3-5 cm within 6-8 weeks. Goldstein (1922) observed 512 orphans and children from underprivileged families. Goldstein described very different growth patterns. These children were much shorter (mean height between -2.0 and -2.8 SDS, modern WHO reference). They mostly failed to catch-up in height, but tended to excessively increase in weight particularly during adolescence.

CONCLUSION

Whereas Abderhalden and Bloch illustrate rapid height catch-up in children from intact social background, Goldstein's observations in orphans and children from poor social background parallel the growth patterns observed in children of modern middle and low-income countries. The historic observations question the current concept of stunting as prima facie evidence of malnutrition and chronic infection, and support the view that "the child's longitudinal growth is largely independent of the extent and nature of the diet".

Household Structure and Child Education in Cambodia

We analyze the effects of household structure on education in Cambodia. Consistent evidence documents that residence with both biological parents benefits children's education in Western countries. Elsewhere, the issue is gaining more attention with the growing number of "left-behind children" due to adult migration and, possibly, changes in family behavior, but the extant record is both thinner and more contrasted. Controlling for the presence of grandparents and some household characteristics, we find children residing with both biological parents are more likely to be enrolled in school, in the appropriate grade for their age, and literate than those living with only one parent. The effect sizes appear comparable to those in most Western countries, but the effects shrink or even disappear when grandparents are present. The results for children not residing with either parent are mixed, suggesting negative effects for some children might be blurred by positive selection for some others.

Parental Divorce and Children's Schooling in Rural Malawi

A growing body of literature has examined the impact of different types of family structures on children's schooling in sub-Saharan Africa. These studies have investigated how living arrangements, gender of the household head, parental death, and paternal migration are related to schooling. Although many sub-Saharan African countries have high divorce rates, very few studies have explored the impact of parental divorce on children's schooling. The present study uses three waves of data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH) to investigate the effect of parental divorce on children's schooling and the possible mechanisms driving this relationship. Unlike prior studies, this study uses child-level fixed-effects models to control for selection into divorce. Results show that parental divorce is associated with lower grade attainment and a larger schooling gap, defined as the number of years a child is behind in school (among children currently attending school). Although no association exists between parental divorce and current school attendance, girls affected by divorce are significantly less likely to be attending school. Differences in economic resources, maternal coresidence, or maternal psychological well-being do not explain the relationship between parental divorce and children's schooling.

Father's Migration and Leaving the Parental Home in Rural Mozambique

Migration is an increasingly common demographic phenomenon and has important implications for the well-being of family members left behind. Although extensive research has examined the impact of parental labor migration on school-age children, less is known about its effect on adolescents. In this study, the authors used longitudinal survey data collected in rural Mozambique (N = 515) to assess the association between father's migration and adolescent children's leaving the parental home, an important component of the transition to adulthood. The results showed that father's migration delays home-leaving for adolescent girls and that these effects are not mediated by school enrollment. The results for boys were inconclusive. The authors also found that remittances and longer durations of paternal migration were negatively associated with the transition out of the home. On the basis of the findings, they argue that father's migration delays girls' marriage.

Children Living with HIV-Infected Adults: Estimates for 23 Countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa many children live in extreme poverty and experience a burden of illness and disease that is disproportionately high. The emergence of HIV and AIDS has only exacerbated long-standing challenges to improving children’s health in the region, with recent cohorts experiencing pediatric AIDS and high levels of orphan status, situations which are monitored globally and receive much policy and research attention. Children’s health, however, can be affected also by living with HIV-infected adults, through associated exposure to infectious diseases and the diversion of household resources away from them. While long recognized, far less research has focused on characterizing this distinct and vulnerable population of HIV-affected children.

Methods

Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 23 countries collected between 2003 and 2011, we estimate the percentage of children living in a household with at least one HIV-infected adult. We assess overlaps with orphan status and investigate the relationship between children and the adults who are infected in their households.

Results

The population of children living in a household with at least one HIV-infected adult is substantial where HIV prevalence is high; in Southern Africa, the percentage exceeded 10% in all countries and reached as high as 36%. This population is largely distinct from the orphan population. Among children living in households with tested, HIV-infected adults, most live with parents, often mothers, who are infected; nonetheless, in most countries over 20% live in households with at least one infected adult who is not a parent.

Conclusion

Until new infections contract significantly, improvements in HIV/AIDS treatment suggest that the population of children living with HIV-infected adults will remain substantial. It is vital to on-going efforts to reduce childhood morbidity and mortality to consider whether current care and outreach sufficiently address the distinct vulnerabilities of these children.

Childhood Risk of Parental Absence in Tanzania

Although parents might not live with their children for a variety of reasons, existing accounts of parental absence often examine one cause in isolation. Using detailed longitudinal demographic surveillance data from Rufiji, Tanzania, this article examines parental absence due to death, migration, child relocation, union dissolution, and union formation from 2001-2011. Employing survival analysis, the article quantifies children's risk of absence by cause and investigates sociodemographic variation in this risk. Of children born into two-parent households, 25% experience maternal absence by age 10, and 40% experience paternal absence by the same age. Roughly one-quarter of children are born into single-mother families with an absent father at birth, and nearly 70% of these children experience maternal absence as well by age 10. Despite the emphasis on orphanhood in the research and policy communities, parental death is the least common cause of absence. Furthermore, although demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are strong predictors of absence, variation in these relationships across causes underscores the distinctiveness and similarity of different reasons for absence.

Health Shocks and Natural Resource Management: Evidence from Western Kenya

Poverty and altered planning horizons brought on by the HIV/AIDS epidemic can change individual discount rates, altering incentives to conserve natural resources. Using longitudinal household survey data from western Kenya, we estimate the effects of health status on investments in soil quality, as indicated by households' agricultural land fallowing decisions. We first show that this effect is theoretically ambiguous: while health improvements lower discount rates and thus increase incentives to conserve natural resources, they also increase labor productivity and make it more likely that households can engage in labor-intensive resource extraction activities. We find that household size and composition are predictors of whether the effect of health improvements on discount rates dominates the productivity effect, or vice-versa. Since households with more and younger members are better able to reallocate labor to cope with productivity shocks, the discount rate effect dominates for these households and health improvements lead to greater levels of conservation. In smaller families with less substitutable labor, the productivity effect dominates and health improvements lead to greater environmental degradation.

The impact of parental death on child well-being: evidence from the Indian Ocean tsunami

Identifying the impact of parental death on the well-being of children is complicated because parental death is likely to be correlated with other, unobserved factors that affect child well-being. Population-representative longitudinal data collected in Aceh, Indonesia, before and after the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami are used to identify the impact of parental deaths on the well-being of children aged 9-17 at the time of the tsunami. Exploiting the unanticipated nature of parental death resulting from the tsunami in combination with measuring well-being of the same children before and after the tsunami, models that include child fixed effects are estimated to isolate the causal effect of parental death. Comparisons are drawn between children who lost one or both parents and children whose parents survived. Shorter-term impacts on school attendance and time allocation one year after the tsunami are examined, as well as longer-term impacts on education trajectories and marriage. Shorter- and longer-term impacts are not the same. Five years after the tsunami, there are substantial deleterious impacts of the tsunami on older boys and girls, whereas the effects on younger children are more muted.

Long-run Relations between Childhood Shocks and Health in Late Adulthood-Evidence from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe

In this article, we address the long-run associations between childhood shocks and health in late adulthood. Applying a life-course approach and data from SHARE, we estimate direct and indirect relations of shocks like relocation, dispossession, or hunger and health outcomes after 50 years of age. Having lived in a children's home, in a foster family, or having suffered a period of hunger turn out to be the most detrimental. Using a finite mixture model, which allows to classify the correlations between shocks and later health into a priori unknown groups, we show that some adverse shocks show opposite relations for specific groups. (JEL codes: J1, I12, J13).

CONTEXT MATTERS: FOSTERING, ORPHANHOOD AND SCHOOLING IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

A growing body of research suggests that orphanhood and fostering might be (independently) associated with educational disadvantage in sub-Saharan Africa. However, literature on the impacts of orphanhood and fostering on school enrolment, attendance and progress produces equivocal, and often conflicting, results. This paper reports on quantitative and qualitative data from sixteen field-sites in Ghana and Malawi, highlighting the importance of historical and social context in shaping schooling outcomes for fostered and orphaned children. In Malawi, which has been particularly badly affected by AIDS, orphans were less likely to be enrolled in and attending school than other children. By contrast, in Ghana, with its long tradition of 'kinship fostering', orphans were not significantly educationally disadvantaged; instead, non-orphaned, purposively fostered children had lower school enrolment and attendance than their peers. Understanding the context of orphanhood and fostering in relation to schooling is crucial in achieving 'Education for All'.

Anticipatory child fostering and household economic security in Malawi

BACKGROUND

While there is a rich literature on the practice of child fostering in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about how fostering impacts receiving households, as few studies consider household conditions both before and after fostering. Despite the fact that circumstances surrounding fostering vary, the literature's key distinction of fostering is often drawn along the simple line of whether or not a household is fostering a child. This paper argues that anticipation of fostering responsibilities, in particular, is a useful dimension to distinguish fostering experiences for receiving households.

OBJECTIVE

This paper examines the relationship between receiving a foster child and subsequent changes in household wealth. Particular emphasis is placed on how these changes are conditioned by differing levels of anticipation of the fostering event.

METHODS

This study uses data from Tsogolo la Thanzi (TLT), a longitudinal survey in Balaka, Malawi. Using data from 1754 TLT respondents, fixed effects pooled time-series models are estimated to assess whether and how receiving a foster child changes household wealth.

RESULTS

This paper demonstrates the heterogeneity of fostering experiences for receiving households. The results show that households that anticipate fostering responsibilities experience a greater increase in household wealth than both households that do not foster and those that are surprised by fostering.

CONCLUSION

Households that anticipate fostering responsibilities exhibit the greatest increase in household wealth. While fostering households that do not anticipate fostering responsibilities may not experience these gains, there is no evidence to indicate that such households are negatively impacted relative to households that do not foster. This finding suggests that additional childcare responsibilities may not be as detrimental to African households as some researchers have feared.

Modeling old-age wealth with endogenous early-life outcomes: The case of Mexico

This paper contributes to the literature on the life course and aging by examining the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being, using data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study. Empirical research in this area has been challenged by the potential endogeneity of the early-life outcomes of interest, an issue which most studies ignore or downplay. Our contribution takes two forms: (1) we examine in detail the potential importance of two key life-cycle outcomes, age at marriage (a measure of family formation) and years of educational attainment (a measure of human capital investment) for old-age wealth, and (2) we illustrate the empirical value of past context variables that could help model the association between early-life outcomes and late-life well being. Our illustrative approach, matching macro-level historical policy and census variables to individual records to use as instruments in modeling the endogeneity of early-life behaviors, yields a statistically identified two-stage model of old-age wealth with minimum bias. We use simulations to show that the results for the model of wealth in old age are meaningfully different when comparing the approach that accounts for endogeneity with an approach that assumes exogeneity of early-life outcomes. Furthermore, our results suggest that in the Mexican case, models which ignore the potential endogeneity of early-life outcomes are likely to under-estimate the effects of such variables on old-age wealth.

Sibling support and the educational prospects of young adults in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Extended kin networks are an important social and economic resource in Africa. Existing research has focused primarily on intergenerational ties, but much less is known about "lateral" ties, such as those between siblings. In contexts of high adult mortality (i.e., fewer parents and grandparents) sibling interdependencies may assume heightened importance, especially during the transition to adulthood.

OBJECTIVE

In this paper, we extend the resource dilution perspective that dominates research on sibling relationships in early childhood and propose an alternate framework in which siblings represent a source of economic support that contributes positively to educational outcomes at later stages of the life course.

METHODS

We draw upon longitudinal data from young adults (age 15-18) in southern Malawi to assess the scope and magnitude of economic transfers among sibship sets. We then explore the relationships between sibship size, net economic transfers between siblings, and four measures of educational progress.

RESULTS

First, exchanges of economic support between siblings are pervasive in the Malawian context and patterned, especially by birth order. Second, economic support from siblings is positively associated with educational attainment, as well as with the odds of being at grade level in school, both contemporaneously and prospectively.

CONCLUSIONS

During young-adulthood, economic support from siblings acts as a buffer against the negative association between sibship size and schooling outcomes that has been documented at earlier ages.

COMMENTS

We question the established notion that siblings unilaterally subtract from resource pools, and argue that sibling support may be consequential for a wide range of demographic outcomes in a variety of cultural contexts. Our findings point to the need for additional research on the importance of lateral kinship ties across cultural settings and throughout the life course.

Family instability and early initiation of sexual activity in Western Kenya

Epidemiological, economic, and social forces have produced high levels of volatility in family and household structure for young people growing up in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades. However, scholarship on the family to date has not examined the influence of this family instability on young people's well-being. The current study employs unique life history calendar data from Western Kenya to investigate the relationship between instability in caregiving and early initiation of sexual activity. It draws on a body of work on parental union instability in the United States, and examines new dimensions of family change. Analyses reveal a positive association between transitions in primary caregiver and the likelihood of early sexual debut that is rapidly manifested following caregiver change and persists for a short period. The association is strongest at early ages, and there is a cumulative effect of multiple caregiver changes. The results highlight the importance of studying family stability in sub-Saharan Africa, as distinct from family structure, and for attention to dimensions such as age and recency.

Timing of orphanhood, early sexual debut, and early marriage in four sub-Saharan African countries

According to a growing body of literature, some orphans are at heightened risk of early sexual debut and early marriage. This study examines a rarely explored aspect of orphanhood: the timing and type of parental death and their relationship to these outcomes. The study also explores whether education mediates orphans' risk of early sexual initiation and early marriage. The data are drawn from the 2004 National Survey of Adolescents, which includes interviews with 12-19-year-old adolescents in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Malawi, and Uganda. Results from discrete-time event history analysis indicate that female double orphans, regardless of timing of orphanhood, have greater odds of early sexual debut than do nonorphans. Education explains little of their increased risk. In contrast, male orphans of any type reveal no increased vulnerability to early sexual debut. Uganda is the only country where female orphans, specifically double orphans and those who are paternal orphans before age 10, have greater odds of early marriage, with education accounting for a small portion of the risk.

Family Instability and Pathways to Adulthood in Urban South Africa

Social, political, epidemiological, and economic forces have produced family instability during childhood for many young people transitioning to adulthood in South Africa. This study identifies pathways to adulthood for youth in Cape Town that capture the timing and sequencing of role transitions across the life domains of school, work, and family formation. It then uses these pathways to investigate the relationship between childhood family instability and the way young people's lives unfold during the transition to adulthood. Results indicate that changes in co-residence with parents are associated with following less advantageous pathways into adulthood, independent of particular family structure or orphan status. Overall, the findings suggest that family instability influences not only single transitions for youth, but also combinations of transitions. They also indicate the value of a multi-dimensional conceptualization of the transition to adulthood in empirical work.

A multilevel analysis of the effect of Malawi's Social Cash Transfer Pilot Scheme on school-age children's health

OBJECTIVE

The primary goal was to examine whether Malawi Social Cash Transfer Pilot Scheme, initially implemented in a rural district in central Malawi, improved health outcomes for children aged 6-17. Secondary goals were to examine the effects of individual child- (orphan status and gender) and household-level factors (number of working-age adults and sick adults) on health outcomes. Another secondary goal was to examine whether orphan status modified the cash transfer effect on health outcomes.

METHODS

This multilevel study used panel data collected in 2007-08 from a randomized controlled evaluation study of phase one of the programme. The analyses included 1197 children aged 6-17 in 486 households. The four outcomes of interest were: illness in the past month, illness that stopped normal activities in the past month, missing school due to illness or injury in the past month and health care use for worst illness in the past year.

FINDINGS

Approximately two-thirds of children in cash transfer eligible households were orphans. Compared with children in non-beneficiary households, those in beneficiary households had a 37% lower odds of child illness (P<0.05), 42% lower odds of illness that stopped normal activities (P<0.01) and substantially higher odds of utilizing health services for a serious illness (odds ratio=10.98; P<0.01). An increase in the household number of working-age adults was associated with 34% lower odds of child illness (P<0.01). An increase in the household number of sick adults increased the odds of child illness by 97% (P<0.01) and serious illness by 49% (P<0.01). No statistically significant differences were observed by orphan status and child's gender. Consistent differential programme effects by orphan status were not observed.

CONCLUSION

Unconditional cash transfer programmes to poor households have the potential to improve health outcomes for all vulnerable children aged 6-17.

Migration experience and premarital sexual initiation in urban Kenya: an event history analysis

Migration during the formative adolescent years can affect important life-course transitions, including the initiation of sexual activity. In this study, we use life history calendar data to investigate the relationship between changes in residence and timing of premarital sexual debut among young people in urban Kenya. By age 18, 64 percent of respondents had initiated premarital sex, and 45 percent had moved at least once between the ages of 12 and 18. Results of the event history analysis show that girls and boys who move during early adolescence experience the earliest onset of sexual activity. For adolescent girls, however, other dimensions of migration provide protective effects, with greater numbers of residential changes and residential changes in the last one to three months associated with later sexual initiation. To support young people's ability to navigate the social, economic, and sexual environments that accompany residential change, researchers and policymakers should consider how various dimensions of migration affect sexual activity.

The relationship between orphanhood and child fostering in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990s-2000s

In countries most afflicted by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, orphanhood has increased dramatically, but the potential consequences of the increase have been mitigated by the ability of households to absorb orphans. This paper examines what the rising levels of orphanhood mean for the common practice of non-orphan child fostering in regions of high and low HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, which has a long history of child fostering. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 135 regions within 14 sub-Saharan countries that undertake HIV testing and have had at least two surveys, we examine changes in fostering patterns. In most regions, we find a more accommodating relationship between orphan and non-orphan fostering: communities are able to absorb the demand for both orphans and non-orphans. Where HIV prevalence exceeds 10 per cent there is some evidence that the need to care for orphans is beginning to reduce opportunities for non-orphan fostering.

"The Luggage that isn't Theirs is Too Heavy…":Understandings of Orphan Disadvantage in Lesotho

In Southern Africa, high adult HIV prevalence has fueled concern about the welfare of children losing parents to the epidemic. A growing body of evidence indicates that parental, particularly maternal, death is negatively associated with child outcomes. However, a better understanding of the mechanisms is needed. In addition, the way orphan disadvantage and the mechanisms giving rise to it are understood on the ground is essential for the successful translation of research into policies and programs. This study employs data from 89 in-depth interviews with caregivers and key informants in Lesotho, a setting where approximately one-quarter of adults is infected with HIV, to elaborate understandings of orphan disadvantage. Our analysis focuses on two questions: (i) Do local actors perceive orphans to be disadvantaged compared to non-orphans, and if so, in what ways; and (ii) How do they explain orphans' differential disadvantage?Analyses suggest that orphans were widely perceived to be disadvantaged; respondents described this disadvantage in material as well as affective domains. Thematic analyses reveal five broad categories of explanation: poverty, love and kin connection, caregiver character, perceptions of orphans, and community norms related to orphan care. These results underscore the need for research and policy to address (i) multiple types of disadvantage, including deficits in kindness and attention; and (ii) the social embeddedness of disadvantage, recognizing that poverty, kinship, and community interact with individual attributes to shape caregiving relationships and child experiences. The findings suggest limited success for programs and policies that do not address the emotional needs of children, or that focus on child or caregiver support to the exclusion of community outreach.