The potential impact of male circumcision on HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa

A Tale of Three Recent Pandemics: Influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2

Emerging infectious diseases are one of the main threats to public health, with the potential to cause a pandemic when the infectious agent manages to spread globally. The first major pandemic to appear in the 20th century was the influenza pandemic of 1918, caused by the influenza A H1N1 strain that is characterized by a high fatality rate. Another major pandemic was caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), that started early in the 20th century and remained undetected until 1981. The ongoing HIV pandemic demonstrated a high mortality and morbidity rate, with discrepant impacts in different regions around the globe. The most recent major pandemic event, is the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which has caused over 5.7 million deaths since its emergence, 2 years ago. The aim of this work is to highlight the main determinants of the emergence, epidemic response and available countermeasures of these three pandemics, as we argue that such knowledge is paramount to prepare for the next pandemic. We analyse these pandemics’ historical and epidemiological contexts and the determinants of their emergence. Furthermore, we compare pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions that have been used to slow down these three pandemics and zoom in on the technological advances that were made in the progress. Finally, we discuss the evolution of epidemiological modelling, that has become an essential tool to support public health policy making and discuss it in the context of these three pandemics. While these pandemics are caused by distinct viruses, that ignited in different time periods and in different regions of the globe, our work shows that many of the determinants of their emergence and countermeasures used to halt transmission were common. Therefore, it is important to further improve and optimize such approaches and adapt it to future threatening emerging infectious diseases.

The sensitivity and specificity of wideband absorbance measure in identifying pathologic middle ears in adults living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Limited research exists on the sensitivity and specificity of wideband acoustic immittance (WAI) in adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This study forms part of the bigger study titled 'wideband acoustic immittance in adults living with HIV'.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the sensitivity and specificity of the wideband absorbance measure at tympanic peak pressure (TPP), as a screening tool for detecting middle ear pathologies in adults living with HIV.

METHOD

A prospective nonexperimental study comprising 99 adults living with HIV was performed. All participants underwent a basic audiological test battery which included case history, video otoscopy, tympanometry, wideband absorbance at TPP and pure tone audiometry. Middle ear pathologies were established by two otorhinolaryngologists using asynchronous video otoscopic images analysis. The outcomes of the otorhinolaryngologists served as the gold standard against which the wideband absorbance at TPP and tympanometry were measured. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was calculated.

RESULTS

ROC revealed the sensitivity of wideband absorbance at TPP to be higher in low to mid frequencies, but significantly lower in frequencies above 971.53 Hz. The sensitivity of tympanometry was lower. However, there was no difference between the specificity of wideband absorbance at TPP and tympanometry, indicating that when there are no pathologies, tympanometry is equally accurate.

CONCLUSION

The current findings reveal that wideband absorbance at TPP can distinguish middle ear pathologies better than the tympanometry. Incorporating wideband absorbance at TPP in clinical practice may improve early identification and intervention of middle ear pathologies.

Is modelling complexity always needed? Insights from modelling PrEP introduction in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models can be powerful policymaking tools. Simple, static models are user-friendly for policymakers. More complex, dynamic models account for time-dependent changes but are complicated to understand and produce. Under which conditions are static models adequate? We compare static and dynamic model predictions of whether behavioural disinhibition could undermine the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to female sex workers in South Africa.

METHODS

A static model of HIV risk was developed and adapted into a dynamic model. Both models were used to estimate the possible reduction in condom use, following PrEP introduction, without increasing HIV risk. The results were compared over a 20-year time horizon, in two contexts: at epidemic equilibrium and during an increasing epidemic.

RESULTS

Over time horizons of up to 5 years, the models are consistent. Over longer timeframes, the static model overstates the tolerated reduction in condom use where initial condom use is reasonably high ($\ge$50%) and/or PrEP effectiveness is low ($\le$45%), especially during an increasing epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Static models can provide useful deductions to guide policymaking around the introduction of a new HIV intervention over short-medium time horizons of up to 5 years. Over longer timeframes, static models may not sufficiently emphasise situations of programmatic importance, especially where underlying epidemics are still increasing.

Factors Associated with Low Uptake of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision as HIV-Prevention Strategy among Men Aged 18-49 Years from Nyanza District, Rwanda

Background

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is an effective biomedical intervention against HIV in developed and developing countries. However, there is low uptake of VMMC due to various factors, which hinders achievement of health-policy goals to increase uptake. Numerous campaigns offering the procedure free of charge exist in developing countries, but such initiatives seem to bear little fruit in attracting men to these services. This study assessed risk factors associated with the low uptake of VMMC among men in Nyanza district, Southern Province, Rwanda.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among adult males in Nyanza. A total of 438 men participated in individual interviews. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used with 95% confidence intervals and p≤0.05 was taken as statistically significant.

Results

Our results indicated that a low update of VMMC was highly prevalent (35.8%). A majority (84.7%) of participants had heard about VMMC, its complications, advantages in preventiing penile cancer, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV, condom use after circumcision, abstinence for 6 weeks after circumcision, and improving penile hygiene. Religion and education were significant factors in low uptake. Catholics were less likely to undergo VMMC than Muslims (OR 7.19, 95% CI 1.742–29.659; p=0.01). Those of other faiths were less likely to undergo VMMC than Muslims (OR 6.035, 95% CI 1.731–21.039; p=0.005). Participants with secondary education were less likely to undergo VMMC than those with primary education only (OR 1.4, 95% CI 0.74–2.64; p=0.03). Having no formal education decreased the odds of being uncircumcised (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.14–0.977; p=0.045) when compared to those with primary education.

Conclusion

Uptake of VMMC remains low in Nyanza, but most men had sufficient knowledge about it. Education, religion, and marital status were major factors in the low uptake. Programs targeting peer influences and parents need to be prioritized.

The impact of the program for medical male circumcision on HIV in South Africa: analysis using three epidemiological models

Background: South Africa began offering medical male circumcision (MMC) in 2010. We evaluated the current and future impact of this program to see if it is effective in preventing new HIV infections. Methods: The Thembisa, Goals and Epidemiological Modeling Software (EMOD) HIV transmission models were calibrated to South Africa's HIV epidemic, fitting to household survey data on HIV prevalence, risk behaviors, and proportions of men circumcised, and to programmatic data on intervention roll-out including program-reported MMCs over 2009-2017. We compared the actual program accomplishments through 2017 and program targets through 2021 with a counterfactual scenario of no MMC program. Results: The MMC program averted 71,000-83,000 new HIV infections from 2010 to 2017. The future benefit of the circumcision already conducted will grow to 496,000-518,000 infections (6-7% of all new infections) by 2030. If program targets are met by 2021 the benefits will increase to 723,000-760,000 infections averted by 2030. The cost would be $1,070-1,220 per infection averted relative to no MMC. The savings from averted treatment needs would become larger than the costs of the MMC program around 2034-2039. In the Thembisa model, when modelling South Africa's 9 provinces individually, the 9-provinces-aggregate results were similar to those of the single national model. Across provinces, projected long-term impacts were largest in Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga (23-27% reduction over 2017-2030), reflecting these provinces' greater MMC scale-up. Conclusions: MMC has already had a modest impact on HIV incidence in South Africa and can substantially impact South Africa's HIV epidemic in the coming years.

Understanding the linkages between male circumcision and multiple sexual partnership among married Ghanaian men: Analysis of data from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey

INTRODUCTION

This current study sought to investigate the association between male circumcision status and engaging in multiple sexual partnership among men in Ghana.

METHODS

Data from this study come from the men's file of the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were conducted among 1, 948 men and the level of statistical significance was pegged at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Results revealed that men who have been circumcised were more likely to engage in multiple sexual partnership (AOR = 3.36; CI:1.14-9.89), compared to those who have not been circumcised. With the covariates, men with primary level of education were more likely to have multiple sexual partners (AOR = 2.01; CI:1.10-3.69), compared to those with no education. With wealth status, men with richest (AOR = 2.27; CI:1.04-4.97), richer (AOR = 2.05; CI: 1.03-4.08), and middle wealth status (AOR = 1.83; CI:1.01-3.34) had the highest likelihood of having multiple sexual partners, compared to those with poorest wealth status. Conversely, men who professed the Islamic faith were less likely to engage in multiple sexual partnership (AOR = 0.58; CI: 0.36-0.94), compared to Christians. Similarly, men who resided in the Brong Ahafo (AOR = 0.51; CI: 0.26-0.99), Upper East (AOR = 0.41; CI:0.19-0.89), and Ashanti regions (AOR = 0.39; CI: 0.20-0.78) were less likely to engage in multiple sexual partnership.

CONCLUSION

Based on the current findings, educational campaigns by stakeholder groups (e.g., Ministry of Health in collaboration with the National Commission on Civic Education, civil society, educational institutions) should sensitize the sexually active population at the community level to consistently use condoms, especially when they have multiple sexual partners, even when a man is circumcised. Campaign messages must clearly emphasize that male circumcision should not substitute precautionary measures such as delay in the onset of sexual relationships, averting penetrative sex, reducing the number of sexual partners as well as correct and consistent use of male or female condoms regardless one's social standing.

"Getting to Zero New HIV Infections in the Caribbean": Knowledge and Attitudes Toward Male Circumcision Among Adolescent Males in The Bahamas

Male circumcision (MC) plays a significant role in reducing new HIV infections, particularly in high prevalence countries. This cross-sectional study assesses the prevalence of MC and attitudes toward MC among youth aged 15-18 years in The Bahamas, a medium HIV prevalence country. The survey included 797 young men who completed a questionnaire on MC. Data analyses included chi-squared tests. The self-reported prevalence of MC among youth was 16.7% (121/759). Most of the circumcised youth were circumcised as infants, 84% (107/121) were pleased with their circumcision, and 71% would recommend it to others. For uncircumcised youth, 35% (189/533) would consider voluntary male circumcision (VMC) and 26% would recommend MC to others. In all scenarios, circumcised youth were more likely to be positive about MC. Among uncircumcised young men, being older (17-18 years compared to 15-16 years) was the only variable statistically associated with considering MC or recommending MC. After being presented with information on the benefits of MC for HIV prevention, the number of men who were positive about MC increased. Most of the young men in this cohort would consider VMC for reducing HIV incidence. Also, many stated that, if they had a male child, they would have him circumcised. The attitudes of these youth emphasize the need to provide information on HIV in addition to general health benefits of MC if there were to be a sustainable MC program within this population.

The Impact of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for Human Immunodeficiency Virus on Gonorrhea Prevalence

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in reducing the risk of HIV infection in gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GbMSM). However, PrEP does not protect against other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In some populations, PrEP has also led to riskier behavior such as reduced condom usage, with the result that the prevalence of bacterial STIs like gonorrhea has increased. Here, we develop a compartmental model of the transmission of HIV and gonorrhea and the impacts of PrEP, condom usage, STI testing frequency and potential changes in sexual risk behavior stemming from the introduction of PrEP in a population of GbMSM. We find that introducing PrEP causes an increase in gonorrhea prevalence for a wide range of parameter values, including at the currently recommended frequency of STI testing once every three months for individuals on PrEP. Moreover, the model predicts that a higher STI testing frequency alone is not enough to prevent a rise in gonorrhea prevalence, unless the testing frequency is increased to impractical levels. However, testing every 2 months in combination with a 10-25 % reduction in risky behavior by individuals on PrEP would maintain gonorrhea prevalence at pre-PrEP levels. The results emphasize that programs making PrEP more available should be accompanied by efforts to support condom usage and frequent STI testing, in order to avoid an increase in the prevalence of gonorrhea and other bacterial STIs.

Emerging sexually transmitted viral infections: Review of human T-lymphotropic virus-1 disease

Human T-lymphotropic virus-1 is a preventable sexually transmitted infection. In the majority of people it is asymptomatic, remaining undiagnosed and thereby contributing to its silent transmission. When it does manifest it causes significant morbidity and mortality. This review summarises the existing evidence for its role in sexual transmission and offers suggestions for those working in the area of sexual health. This is the third part of a series looking at novel sexually transmitted infections.

Trends in HIV Prevention, Treatment, and Incidence in a Hyperendemic Area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

IMPORTANCE

In Africa, the persistently high HIV incidence rate among young women is the major obstacle to achieving the goal of epidemic control.

OBJECTIVE

To determine trends in coverage of HIV prevention and treatment programs and HIV incidence.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study consisted of 2 sequential, community-based longitudinal studies performed in the Vulindlela and Greater Edendale area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants enrolled from June 11, 2014, to June 22, 2015 (2014 survey), with a single follow-up visit from June 24, 2016, to April 3, 2017 (2016 cohort), or enrolled from July 8, 2015, to June 7, 2016 (2015 survey), with a single follow-up visit from November 7, 2016, to August 30, 2017 (2017 cohort). Men and women aged 15 to 49 years were enrolled in the 2014 and 2015 surveys, and HIV-seronegative participants aged 15 to 35 years were followed up in the 2016 and 2017 cohorts. Analysis was conducted from January 1 through December 31, 2018.

EXPOSURES

HIV prevention and treatment programs in a real-world, nontrial setting.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Trends in sex- and age-specific HIV incidence rates, condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision, knowledge of HIV-seropositive status, uptake of antiretroviral therapy, and viral suppression.

RESULTS

A total of 9812 participants (6265 women [63.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 11 289 households were enrolled in the 2014 survey, and 10 236 participants (6341 women [61.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 12 247 households were enrolled in the 2015 survey. Of these, 3536 of 4539 (annual retention rate of 86.7%) completed follow-up in the 2016 cohort, and 3907 of 5307 (annual retention rate of 81.4%) completed follow-up in the 2017 cohort. From 2014 to 2015, condom use with last sex partner decreased by 10% from 24.0% (n = 644 of 3547) to 21.6% (n = 728 of 3895; P = .12) in men and by 17% from 19.6% (n = 1039 of 6265) to 16.2% (n = 871 of 6341; P = .002) in women. Voluntary medical male circumcision increased by 13% from 31.9% (1102 of 3547) to 36.1% (n = 1472 of 3895); P = .007) in men, and the proportion of women reporting that their partner was circumcised increased by 35% from 35.7% (n = 1695 of 4766) to 48.2% (n = 2519 of 5207; P < .001). Knowledge of HIV-seropositive status increased by 21% from 51.8% (n = 504 of 3547) to 62.9% (n = 570 of 3895; P < .001) in men and by 14% from 64.6% (n = 1833 of 6265) to 73.4% (n = 2182 of 6341; P < .001) in women. Use of antiretroviral therapy increased by 32% from 36.7% (n = 341 of 3547) to 48.6% (n = 432 of 3895; P < .001) in men and by 29% from 45.6% (n = 1251 of 6265) to 58.8% (n = 1743 of 6341; P < .001) in women; HIV viral suppression increased by 20% from 41.9% (n = 401 of 3547) to 50.3% (n = 456 of 3895; P = .005) in men and by 13% from 54.8% (n = 1547 of 6265) to 61.9% (n = 1828 of 6341; P < .001) in women. Incidence of HIV declined in women aged 15 to 19 years from 4.63 (95% CI, 3.29-6.52) to 2.74 (95% CI, 1.84-4.09) per 100 person-years (P = .04) but declined marginally or remained unchanged among men and women in other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study showed a significant decline in HIV incidence in young women; however, to further reduce HIV incidence, HIV prevention and treatment program coverage must be intensified and scaled up.

Use of topical versus injectable anaesthesia for ShangRing circumcisions in men and boys in Kenya: Results from a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The ShangRing is a disposable, collar clamp circumcision device pre-qualified for use in men and boys 13 years and above. It has been shown to be faster than conventional circumcision with comparable adverse event (AE) rates and high client satisfaction. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been shown to dramatically reduce the risk of HIV acquisition in males. However, the fear of pain during circumcision is an important barrier to uptake. Use of topical anesthesia thus presents an opportunity to address this.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to evaluate the safety, effectiveness and acceptability of the use of topical anaesthesia with ShangRing circumcision of men and boys 10 years of age and above.

METHODS

Participants were randomised 2:1 to receive topical or injectable anaesthesia. All participants underwent no-flip ShangRing circumcision. The primary outcome measure was pain. Secondary outcomes included ease of use of topical versus injectable anaesthesia, AEs and participant satisfaction.

RESULTS

Compared to the topical group, participants in the injectable group reported significantly more pain on administration of the anesthesia and at approximately 20 minutes after the procedure. In the topical group, sufficient anaesthesia with topical cream was not achieved in 21 (9.3%) cases before the start of the procedure; in another 6 (2.6%), supplementary injectable anaesthesia was required as the circumcision was being carried out. The AE rate was significantly lower (p<0.01) in the topical (0%) vs. the injectable group (4.2%). The most common AE was pain during the post-operative period. All AEs were managed conservatively and resolved without sequeale. 96.7% of participants were satisfied with the appearance of the healed penis and 100% would recommend the ShangRing to others. All seven male circumcision providers involved in the study preferred topical to injectable anaesthesia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate the safety, improved clinical experience, effectiveness, and acceptability of the use of topical anaesthesia in ShangRing circumcision using the no-flip technique. Topical anaesthesia effectively eliminates needlestick pain from the clients' VMMC experience and thus has the potential to increase demand for the service.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02390310.

Immediate Motivators to Seeking Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Among HIV-Negative Adult Men in an Urban Setting in Botswana

Randomized trials have shown that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) significantly reduces HIV acquisition risk in men. We sought to identify subpopulations of Botswanan men with high levels of VMMC uptake by comparing an observational cohort of men presenting for circumcision services at two high-volume clinics in Botswana's capital city, Gabo-rone, with a matched, population-based random sample of uncircumcised men. Among these high uptake VMMC subpopulations, we then examined the immediate factors that play a role in men's decision to seek VMMC services. As compared to their population-based controls, men choosing to undergo circumcision were more likely to be ages 24-34, more highly educated, to have a religious affiliation, and in a serious relationship. Our results suggest that married men and highly educated men were more likely to pursue circumcision for personal hygiene reasons. These findings have direct implications for targeted demand creation and mobilization activities to increase VMMC uptake in Botswana.

A comparison between video otoscopy and standard tympanometry findings in adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Literature suggests that there is a correlation between video otoscopy and standard tympanometry findings. However, there is limited evidence on whether these two measures are comparable in the identification of middle ear pathologies in adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Objective: This study aimed to determine the correlation between video otoscopy and standard tympanometry with 226 Hz probe tone in the identification of middle ear pathologies in adults living with HIV in Limpopo, South Africa. Method: A prospective, non-experimental, comparative design was employed on HIV-positive adults aged 18 years and older. All participants underwent basic audiological assessment including case history interviews, video otoscopy, tympanometry with a 226 Hz probe tone and pure tone audiometry. Two ear, nose and throat (ENT) specialists independently analysed video otoscopic images and provided their reports to the researcher, and these were compared to the tympanometry results. The IBM SPSS v.24 was used for data analysis, including the use of Cohen's kappa to determine the agreement between the two procedures. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to determine the strength of the correlation between tympanometry and video otoscopy. Results: A total of 87 adults (N = 161 ears) took part in the study. Middle ear pathology was observed in 8% (n = 13) of the sample when tympanometry was used, and this increased to 10.6% (n = 17) when video otoscopy was utilised. Kappa statistics found a good agreement (k = 0.7) between the diagnoses made by two ENTs. However, there was poor agreement (k = 0.2) between the diagnoses by video otoscopy and tympanometry. Pearson's correlation coefficient indicated weak correlation between video otoscopy and tympanometry (r = 0.195). Conclusion: Findings from this study suggest that video otoscopy may be more accurate in the identification of middle ear pathologies in adults living with HIV when compared to tympanometry. These findings have training implications in the use of video otoscopy to ensure accuracy and reliability. Clinical implications of current findings include the use of both video otoscopy and tympanometry in a complementary manner for more sensitive identification of middle ear pathologies in this population. Lastly, tele-audiologic implications of the use of video otoscopy to increase access in resource-constrained contexts are raised.

Modeling epidemics: A primer and Numerus Model Builder implementation

Epidemiological models are dominated by compartmental models, of which SIR formulations are the most commonly used. These formulations can be continuous or discrete (in either the state-variable values or time), deterministic or stochastic, or spatially homogeneous or heterogeneous, the latter often embracing a network formulation. Here we review the continuous and discrete deterministic and discrete stochastic formulations of the SIR dynamical systems models, and we outline how they can be easily and rapidly constructed using Numerus Model Builder, a graphically-driven coding platform. We also demonstrate how to extend these models to a metapopulation setting using NMB network and mapping tools.

Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa

We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules – usually some simplification of ‘real world’ processes as we understand them. Computing details of informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an interest in the epidemic.

Gender Differences in Sexual and Reproductive Health Protective and Risk Factors of Batswana Adolescents: Implications for Parent and Adolescent Interventions

Adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa and in Botswana in particular continue to bear the brunt of the HIV epidemic. This analysis assessed gender differences among theory-based sexual and reproductive health protective and risk factors in a cross-sectional sample of 228 Batswana adolescents. Incongruence between preferred and actual sources of sexual information and several important gender differences in parent-adolescent relationships, psychosocial influences, and adolescent sexual behaviors were identified. Parents were the fourth most common source of information about sex; yet, over three-quarters of adolescents preferred to have parents teach them about sex. Boys reported more positive relationships with their parents and girls reported more positive attitudes toward transactional sex. Both boys and girls reported similarly low levels of parental monitoring, parental communication, and parental responsiveness, all of which are important protective factors. These findings suggest interventions should address these gender differences and consider offering parallel interventions for adolescents and their parents in Botswana.

Safety and efficacy of the PrePex device in HIV-positive men: A single-arm study in Zimbabwe

Male circumcision (MC) for sexually active, HIV-negative men reduces HIV transmission and averts HIV infections. Excluding HIV-positive men from MC decreases access to additional health and hygiene benefits. In settings where HIV-testing is, or is perceived to be, required for MC, testing may reduce MC uptake. Reducing promotion of HIV testing within MC settings and promoting device-based MC may speed MC scale-up. To assess safety and efficacy of PrePex MC device among HIV-positive men, we conducted a one-arm, open-label, prospective study in otherwise healthy HIV-positive men in Zimbabwe.

Early resumption of sexual activity following voluntary medical male circumcision in Botswana: A qualitative study

Unprotected sexual intercourse after undergoing voluntary medical male circumcision but prior to complete wound healing can lead to major adverse events including HIV acquisition. To better understand perceptions related to early resumption of sex prior to wound healing, 27 focus group discussions were conducted among 238 adult men, women, and community leaders in Botswana. Median age among all participants was 31 years of whom 60% were male and 51% were either employed and receiving salary or self-employed. Only 12% reported being currently married. Pain, not risk of HIV acquisition, was perceived as the main adverse consequence of early resumption of sex. In fact, no participant mentioned that early resumption of sex could lead to an increase in HIV risk. Demonstrating masculinity and virility, fear of losing female partners, and misperception about post-operative wound healing also played key roles in the decision to resume sex prior to complete wound healing. Findings from this study highlight a potentially widespread lack of awareness of the increased risk of HIV acquisition during the wound healing period. Strengthening post-operative counseling and identifying strategies to discourage the early resumption of sex will be increasingly important as older men and HIV-positive men seek voluntary medical male circumcision services.

Impact of Educational Interventions on Acceptance and Uptake of Male Circumcision in the General Population of Western China: A Multicenter Cohort Study

To compare different intervention models for promoting male circumcision (MC) to prevent HIV transmission in Western China. A total of 1690 male participants from multiple study sites were cluster randomly allocated to three-stage (Model A), two-stage (Model B), and one-stage (Model C) educational interventions. In all three interventions models, knowledge about MC significantly increased and the reported willingness to accept MC increased to 52.6% (255/485), 67.0% (353/527), and 45.5% (219/481) after intervention, respectively (P < 0.05). Rate of MC surgery uptake was highest (23.7%; 115/485) among those who received Model A intervention, compared to those who received Model B (17.1%; 90/527) or Model C (9.4%; 45/481) interventions (P < 0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified that Model A or Model B had twice the effect of Model C on MC uptake, with relative risks of 2.4 (95%CI, 1.5-3.8) and 2.2 (95%CI, 1.3-3.6), respectively. Model B was the most effective model for improving participants' willingness to accept MC, while Model A was most successful at increasing uptake of MC surgery. Self-reported attitude towards MC uptake was not strongly correlated with actual behavior in this study focusing on the general male population in Western China.

Soccer-based promotion of voluntary medical male circumcision: A mixed-methods feasibility study with secondary students in Uganda

The Ugandan government is committed to scaling-up proven HIV prevention strategies including safe male circumcision, and innovative strategies are needed to increase circumcision uptake. The aim of this study was to assess the acceptability and feasibility of implementing a soccer-based intervention (“Make The Cut”) among schoolboys in a peri-urban district of Uganda. The intervention was led by trained, recently circumcised “coaches” who facilitated a 60-minute session delivered in schools, including an interactive penalty shoot-out game using metaphors for HIV prevention, sharing of the coaches’ circumcision story, group discussion and ongoing engagement from the coach to facilitate linkage to male circumcision. The study took place in four secondary schools in Entebbe sub-district, Uganda. Acceptability of safe male circumcision was assessed through a cross-sectional quantitative survey. The feasibility of implementing the intervention was assessed by piloting the intervention in one school, modifying it, and implementing the modified version in a second school. Perceptions of the intervention were assessed with in-depth interviews with participants. Of the 210 boys in the cross-sectional survey, 59% reported being circumcised. Findings showed high levels of knowledge and generally favourable perceptions of circumcision. The initial implementation of Make The Cut resulted in 6/58 uncircumcised boys (10.3%) becoming circumcised. Changes made included increasing engagement with parents and improved liaison with schools regarding the timing of the intervention. Following this, uptake improved to 18/69 (26.1%) in the second school. In-depth interviews highlighted the important role of family and peer support and the coach in facilitating the decision to circumcise. This study showed that the modified Make The Cut intervention may be effective to increase uptake of safe male circumcision in this population. However, the intervention is time-intensive, and further work is needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention conducted at scale.

HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: A model-based evaluation of factors accounting for inter-provincial differences in HIV prevalence and incidence trends

Background

HIV prevalence differs substantially between South Africa’s provinces, but the factors accounting for this difference are poorly understood.

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and incidence trends by province, and to identify the epidemiological factors that account for most of the variation between provinces.

Methods

A mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic was applied to each of the nine provinces, allowing for provincial differences in demography, sexual behaviour, male circumcision, interventions and epidemic timing. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data from antenatal and household surveys using a Bayesian approach. Parameters estimated for each province were substituted into the national model to assess sensitivity to provincial variations.

Results

HIV incidence in 15–49-year-olds peaked between 1997 and 2003 and has since declined steadily. By mid-2013, HIV prevalence in 15–49-year-olds varied between 9.4% (95% CI: 8.5%–10.2%) in Western Cape and 26.8% (95% CI: 25.8%–27.6%) in KwaZulu-Natal. When standardising parameters across provinces, this prevalence was sensitive to provincial differences in the prevalence of male circumcision (range 12.3%–21.4%) and the level of non-marital sexual activity (range 9.5%–24.1%), but not to provincial differences in condom use (range 17.7%–21.2%), sexual mixing (range 15.9%–19.2%), marriage (range 18.2%–19.4%) or assumed HIV prevalence in 1985 (range 17.0%–19.1%).

Conclusion

The provinces of South Africa differ in the timing and magnitude of their HIV epidemics. Most of the heterogeneity in HIV prevalence between South Africa’s provinces is attributable to differences in the prevalence of male circumcision and the frequency of non-marital sexual activity.

The global HIV epidemic: What the pathologist needs to know

The World Health Organization estimates that at the end of 2015, approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV worldwide. An estimated 0.8% of adults aged 15-49 years are infected with HIV with women representing a little over half of these infections. The burden of the epidemic varies considerably between regions of the world and within countries. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region of the world with most infections accounting for approximately 70% of people living with HIV. In the United States the number of new infections decreased by 19% between 2005 and 2014 yet, close to 40,000 new infections occurred in 2015 and, as people with HIV live longer and new infections continue, the number of people living with HIV in the US now stands at nearly 1.2 million and continues to rise. Unprecedented funding initiatives for antiretroviral therapy have resulted in coverage of up to 46% of those in need globally. In recent years, studies have demonstrated that HIV-infected persons who are on antiretroviral therapy and suppressed do not transmit HIV thus the United Nations AIDS Program (UNAIDS) initiative of "treatment is prevention". The UNAIDS goals for 2020 are to have diagnosis of 90% of those infected, 90% of those infected will be on treatment and in 90% there will be viral suppression. Of note, for two of the goals, laboratory system strengthening is paramount.

Could Circumcision of HIV-Positive Males Benefit Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs in Africa? Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Background

The epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example.

Methods and Findings

We used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010–2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males. The model was calibrated by fitting to HIV prevalence time trend data from 1990 to 2014. We assumed that inclusivity of HIV positive males may benefit VMMC programs by increasing VMMC uptake among higher risk males, or by circumcision reducing HIV male-to-female transmission risk. All analyses were generated assuming no further antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up.

The number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection was projected to increase from 12.2 VMMCs per HIV infection averted, in a program that circumcises only HIV-negative males, to 14.0, in a program that includes HIV-positive males. The proportion of HIV-positive males was based on their representation in the population (e.g. 12.6% of those circumcised in 2010 would be HIV-positive based on HIV prevalence among males of 12.6% in 2010). However, if a program that only reaches out to HIV-negative males is associated with 20% lower uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 13.2 VMMCs per infection averted. If improved inclusivity of HIV-positive males is associated with 20% higher uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 12.4. As the assumed VMMC efficacy against male-to-female HIV transmission was increased from 0% to 20% and 46%, the effectiveness of circumcising regardless of HIV status improved from 14.0 to 11.5 and 9.1, respectively. The reduction in the HIV incidence rate among females increased accordingly, from 24.7% to 34.8% and 50.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

Improving inclusivity of males in VMMC programs regardless of HIV status increases VMMC effectiveness, if there is moderate increase in VMMC uptake among higher-risk males and/or if there is moderate efficacy for VMMC against male-to-female transmission. In these circumstances, VMMC programs can reduce the HIV incidence rate in males by nearly as much as expected by some ART programs, and additionally, females can benefit from the intervention nearly as much as males.

Obtaining a male circumcision prevalence rate of 80% among adults in a short time: An observational prospective intervention study in the Orange Farm township of South Africa

World Health Organization recommends a target for the male circumcision prevalence rate of 80%. This rate will have a substantial impact on the human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic in Eastern and Southern Africa. The objective of the study was to assess whether an innovative intervention can lead to an increased voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) uptake among adults in a short time. This prospective observational study of a demand generation intervention was conducted in the township of Orange Farm (South Africa) in August to November 2015. In this community male circumcision prevalence rate among adults was stable between 2010 and 2015 at 55% and 57%, despite regular VMMC campaigns at community level and the presence of a VMMC clinic that offered free VMMC. The intervention took place in a random sample of 981 households where 522 men aged 18 to 49 years accepted to participate in the study. Among the 226 uncircumcised men, 212 accepted to be enrolled in the intervention study. A personal male circumcision adviser trained in interpersonal communication skills was assigned to each uncircumcised participant. The male circumcision advisers were trained to explain the risks and benefits of VMMC, and to discuss 24 possible reasons given by men for not being circumcised. Participants were then followed for 9 weeks. Each participant had a maximum of 3 motivational interviews at home. Participants who decided to be circumcised received financial compensation for their time equivalent to 2.5 days of work at the minimum South African salary rate. Among the 212 uncircumcised men enrolled in the intervention, 69.8% (148/212; 95% confidence interval [CI]; 63.4%-75.7%) agreed to be circumcised, which defines the uptake of the intervention. The male circumcision prevalence rate of the sample increased from 56.7% (296/522) to 81.4% (425/522; 77.9%-84.6%), P < 0.001, corresponding to a relative increase of 43.6% (95% CI: 35.4%-53.7%). The reported reasons for accepting circumcision were motivational interviews with the male circumcision adviser (83.1%), and time compensation (39.4%).Increased uptake of VMMC uptake can be obtained in a short time among adult males but requires an intense intervention centered on uncircumcised men at an individual level and time compensation.

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere.

The Price of Prevention: Cost Effectiveness of Biomedical HIV Prevention Strategies in South Africa

BACKGROUND

South Africa has the highest global burden of human immunodefciency virus [HIV]. The study compared the cost-effectiveness of individual and combination HIV preventive strategies against the current rollout of ART and possible ART scale-up.

METHODS

Adolescents attending South African schools in 2012 were included in the semi-Markov running annual cycles. The ART and HIV counseling and testing program [comparator] was weighed against the interventions [viz. HIV vaccine, a dual vaccine strategy [HIV and HPV vaccines], oral pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP] and voluntary medical male circumcision [VMMC]; and various combinations thereof. Quality-adjusted life years [QALY] determined changes in HIV associated mortality and infections averted. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis determined parameter uncertainty. Discount rates of 3% with a lifetime horizon [70 years] were applied.

RESULTS

Dual vaccination was highly cost-effective strategy [US$ 7 per QALY gained] and averted 29% of new HIV infections. VMMC [US$ 30 per QALY gained] proved more cost-effective than HIV vaccination alone [US$ 93 per QALY gained], though VMMC averted 6% more new infections than the HIV vaccine when considered among male participants. PrEP interventions were the least cost-effective with pharmaceutical and human resource spending driving the costs. Combined dual vaccination and VMMC strategies were a dominant intervention. Strategies involving PrEP were the least cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

VMMC, HIV vaccination and dual vaccination strategies were more cost-effective than any PrEP strategies. A multi-intervention biomedical approach could avert considerable new HIV infections and present a cost-effective use of resources; particularly where large scale multi-interventional randomized controlled trials are absent.

Medical male circumcision: How does price affect the risk-profile of take-up?

OBJECTIVE

The benefit of male circumcision is greatest among men who are most at risk of HIV infection. Encouraging this population of men to get circumcised maximizes the benefit that can be achieved through the scale-up of circumcision programs. This paper examines how the price of circumcision affects the risk profile of men who receive a voluntary medical circumcision.

METHODS

In 2010, 1649 uncircumcised adult men in urban Malawi were interviewed and provided a voucher for a subsidized voluntary medical male circumcision, at randomly assigned prices. Clinical data were collected indicating whether the men in the study received a circumcision.

RESULTS

Men who took-up circumcision with a zero-priced voucher were 25 percentage points less likely than those who took-up with a positive-price voucher, to be from a tribe that traditionally circumcises (p=0.101). Zero-priced vouchers also brought in men with more sexual partners in the past year (p=0.075) and past month (p=0.003). None of the men who were most at risk of HIV at baseline (those with multiple partners and who did not use a condom the last time they had sex) received a circumcision if they were offered a positive-priced voucher. Lowering the price to zero increased circumcision take-up to 25% for men of this risk group. The effect of price on take-up was largest among those at highest risk (p=0.096).

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing the price of circumcision surgery to zero can increase take-up among those who are most at risk of HIV infection.

Use of a Simulated Model to Teach Male Adult Circumcision in Sub-Saharan Africa

Male adult circumcision (MC) has been shown to reduce the risk of HIV transmission in men by 50-60 %. An upscaling in the training of providers to perform circumcision is necessary to meet demand since MC is a key component of essential surgery in the context of universal health coverage. We piloted a low-cost, high-fidelity model for training adult circumcision. Multi-centre, multinational data were collected on 74 trainees and clinicians (trainers) in sub-Saharan Africa. Both trainers and trainees gave excellent feedback for the model (content and face validity). The simulated model enables a safe and realistic simulation experience to perform MC. The model is quick to set up and easily transportable to multiple teaching sites.

Pros and cons of circumcision: an evidence-based overview

Based on three large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in Africa, it can clearly be stated that circumcision lowers the risk of infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and some sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among males in settings of high HIV and STI endemicity. Similar effects on STI risk may exist for females, although this may result from an indirect effect of decreasing risk of infection among male partners. It is unknown whether circumcision prevents HIV acquisition in men who have sex with men (MSM), although there might be a protective effect for men who engage mainly in insertive anal intercourse. When the effects of adult circumcision on sexual function and satisfaction of men are examined, high-quality evidence strongly supports lack of harm. Whether circumcision alters sexual satisfaction of female partners is not known as fewer and smaller studies reported conflicting results. Circumcision rarely causes serious complications if practiced by trained practitioners, in a sterile setting, and with a proper follow-up. These conclusions are limited by the lack of high-quality data from areas outside of Africa. RCTs have not been conducted to assess the effects of circumcising infants or MSM. Circumcision has well-proven benefits for people residing in areas with high prevalence of STIs, including HIV, and is not unethical for those who choose to be circumcised or have their children circumcised on religious, social, or cultural grounds. For many others, a definite pro or con recommendation, based on a risk-benefit ratio, cannot be made.

Modeling the Impact of Uganda's Safe Male Circumcision Program: Implications for Age and Regional Targeting

BACKGROUND

Uganda aims to provide safe male circumcision (SMC) to 80% of men ages 15-49 by 2016. To date, only 2 million men have received SMC of the 4.2 million men required. In response to age and regional trends in SMC uptake, the country sought to re-examine its targets with respect to age and subnational region, to assess the program's progress, and to refine the implementation approach.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), was used in conjunction with incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM) to conduct this analysis. Population, births, deaths, and HIV incidence and prevalence were used to populate the model. Baseline male circumcision prevalence was derived from the 2011 AIDS Indicator Survey. Uganda can achieve the most immediate impact on HIV incidence by circumcising men ages 20-34. This group will also require the fewest circumcisions for each HIV infection averted. Focusing on men ages 10-19 will offer the greatest impact over a 15-year period, while focusing on men ages 15-34 offers the most cost-effective strategy over the same period. A regional analysis showed little variation in cost-effectiveness of scaling up SMC across eight regions. Scale-up is cost-saving in all regions. There is geographic variability in program progress, highlighting two regions with low baseline rates of circumcision where additional efforts will be needed.

CONCLUSION

Focusing SMC efforts on specific age groups and regions may help to accelerate Uganda's SMC program progress. Policy makers in Uganda have already used model outputs in planning efforts, proposing males ages 10-34 as a priority group for SMC in the 2014 application to the Global Fund's new funding model. As scale-up continues, the country should also consider a greater effort to expand SMC in regions with low MC prevalence.

Scale-Up of Early Infant Male Circumcision Services for HIV Prevention in Lesotho: A Review of Facilitating Factors and Challenges

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS recommend early infant male circumcision (EIMC) as a component of male circumcision programs in countries with high HIV prevalence and low circumcision rates. Lesotho began incorporating EIMC into routine maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) services in 2013 with funding from the United States Agency for International Development and United Nations Children's Fund. This presented unique challenges: Lesotho had no previous experience with EIMC and cultural traditions link removal of the foreskin to rites of passage. This process evaluation provides an overview of EIMC implementation.

METHODOLOGY

The Lesotho Ministry of Health and Jhpiego conducted a baseline assessment before service implementation. Baseline information from an initial assessment was used to develop and implement an EIMC program that had a pilot and a scale-up phase. Key program activities such as staff training, quality assurance, and demand creation were included at the program design phase. Facilitating factors and challenges were identified from a review of information collected during the baseline assessment as well as the pilot.

RESULTS

Between September 2013 and March 2015, 592 infants were circumcised at 9 sites: 165 (28%) between 1 day and 6 days after birth; 196 (33%) between 7 and 30 days, and 231 (39%) between 31 and 60 days. Facilitating factors included strong support from the Ministry of Health, collaboration with stakeholders, and donor funding. Providers were enthusiastic about the opportunity to offer new services and receive training. Challenges included gaining consent from family members other than mothers, and parents' concern about pain and complications. The EIMC program also had to manage providers' expectations of compensation because overtime was paid to providers who took part in adult circumcision programming but not for EIMC. Limited human resources, including authorization only for doctors to perform EIMC, impeded provision of services.

CONCLUSION

Despite communication, compensation, and task-shifting challenges, integrating EIMC services with MNCH services could be a sustainable model for EIMC service delivery in Lesotho.

Stages of Change for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision and Sexual Risk Behavior in Uncircumcised Zambian Men: The Spear and Shield Project

BACKGROUND

Dissemination and scale up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs is well supported by evidence that VMMC reduces HIV risk in populations with high HIV prevalence and low rates of circumcision, as is the case in Zambia.

PURPOSE

At both individual and population levels, it is important to understand what stages of change for VMMC are associated with, especially across cultures. This study evaluated VMMC knowledge, misinformation, and stages of change for VMMC of uncircumcised men and boys (over 18 years), as well as the concurrent relationship between VMMC stages of change and sexual risk behaviors.

METHOD

Uncircumcised (N = 800) adult men and boys (over 18) were screened and recruited from urban community health centers in Lusaka, Zambia, where they then completed baseline surveys assessing knowledge, attitudes, HIV risk behaviors, and stages of change for VMMC. A series of analyses explored cross-sectional relationships among these variables.

RESULTS

VMMC was culturally acceptable in half of the sample; younger, unmarried, and more educated men were more ready to undergo VMMC. Stage of change for VMMC was also related to knowledge, and those at greater HIV risk reported greater readiness to undergo VMMC.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts to increase VMMC uptake should address the role of perceived HIV risk, risk behaviors, readiness, accurate knowledge, cultural acceptance, and understanding of the significant degree of HIV protection conferred as part of the VMMC decision making process. These results support incorporating comprehensive HIV risk reduction in VMMC promotion programs.

Effectiveness of combination packages for HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa depends on partnership network structure: a mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Combination packages for HIV prevention can leverage the effectiveness of biomedical and behavioural elements to lower disease incidence with realistic targets for individual and population risk reduction. We investigated how sexual network structures can maximise the effectiveness of a package targeting sexually active adults in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with intervention components for medical male circumcision (MMC) and sexual partnership concurrency (having >1 ongoing partner).

METHODS

Network-based mathematical models of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) transmission dynamics among heterosexual couples were used to explore how changes to MMC alone and in combination with changes to concurrency impacted endemic HIV-1 prevalence and incidence. Starting from a base model parameterised from empirical data from West Africa, we simulated the prevalence of circumcision from 10% to 90% and concurrency was modelled at four discrete levels corresponding to values observed across SSA.

RESULTS

MMC and concurrency could contribute to the empirical variation in HIV-1 disease prevalence across SSA. Small reductions in concurrency resulted in large declines in HIV-1 prevalence. Scaling up circumcision in low-concurrency settings yields a greater relative benefit, but the absolute number of infections averted depends on both the circumcision coverage and baseline incidence. Epidemic extinction with this package will require substantial scale-up of MMC in low-concurrency settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic sexual network structure should be considered in the design and targeting of MMC within combination HIV-1 prevention packages. Realistic levels of coverage for these packages within southern Africa could lead to a reduction of incidence to the low levels observed in western Africa, and possibly, epidemic extinction.

Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis

Background

The goal of virtual elimination of horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA) has been proposed, but there have been few systematic investigations of which interventions are likely to be most critical to reducing HIV incidence.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate SA's potential to achieve virtual elimination targets and to identify which interventions will be most critical to achieving HIV incidence reductions.

Design

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the population-level impact of different HIV interventions in SA. Probability distributions were specified to represent uncertainty around 32 epidemiological parameters that could be influenced by interventions, and correlation coefficients (r) were calculated to assess the sensitivity of the adult HIV incidence rates and mother-to-child transmission rates (2015–2035) to each epidemiological parameter.

Results

HIV incidence in SA adults (ages 15–49) is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2011–2012 to 0.29% by 2035 (95% CI: 0.10–0.62%). The parameters most strongly correlated with future adult HIV incidence are the rate of viral suppression after initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) (r=−0.56), the level of condom use in non-marital relationships (r=−0.40), the phase-in of intensified risk-reduction counselling for HIV-positive adults (r=0.29), the uptake of medical male circumcision (r=−0.24) and the phase-in of universal ART eligibility (r=0.22). The paediatric HIV parameters most strongly associated with mother-to-child transmission rates are the relative risk of transmission through breastfeeding when the mother is receiving ART (r=0.70) and the rate of ART initiation during pregnancy (r=−0.16).

Conclusions

The virtual elimination target of a 0.1% incidence rate in adults will be difficult to achieve. Interventions that address the infectiousness of patients after ART initiation will be particularly critical to achieving long-term HIV incidence declines in South Africa.

HIV risk perception and behavior among medically and traditionally circumcised males in South Africa

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has recently been implemented as a strategy for reducing the risk of heterosexual HIV acquisition among men. However, there is some concern that VMMC may lead to low risk perception and more risky sexual behavior. This study investigated HIV risk perception and risk behaviors among men who have undergone either VMMC or traditional male circumcision (TMC) compared to those that had not been circumcised.

METHODS

Data collected from the 2012 South African national population-based household survey for males aged 15 years and older were analyzed using bivariate and multivariate multinomial logistic regression, and relative risk ratios (RRRs) with 95 % confidence interval (CI) were used to assess factors associated with each type of circumcision relative no circumcision.

RESULTS

Of the 11,086 males that indicated that they were circumcised or not, 19.5 % (95 % CI: 17.9-21.4) were medically circumcised, 27.2 % (95 % CI: 24.7-29.8) were traditionally circumcised and 53.3 % (95 % CI: 50.9-55.6) were not circumcised. In the final multivariate models, relative to uncircumcised males, males who reported VMMC were significantly more likely to have had more than two sexual partners (RRR = 1.67, p = 0.009), and males who reported TMC were significantly less likely to be low risk alcohol users (RRR = 0.72, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

There is a need to strengthen and improve the quality of the counselling component of VMMC with the focus on education about the real and present risk for HIV infection associated with multiple sexual partners and alcohol abuse following circumcision.

HIV Infection and AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Status, Challenges and Opportunities

Global trends in HIV infection demonstrate an overall increase in HIV prevalence and substantial declines in AIDS related deaths largely attributable to the survival benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Sub-Saharan Africa carries a disproportionate burden of HIV, accounting for more than 70% of the global burden of infection. Success in HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to impact on the global burden of HIV. Notwithstanding substantial progress in scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART), sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 74% of the 1.5 million AIDS related deaths in 2013. Of the estimated 6000 new infections that occur globally each day, two out of three are in sub-Saharan Africa with young women continuing to bear a disproportionate burden. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years have up to eight fold higher rates of HIV infection compared to their male peers. There remains a gap in women initiated HIV prevention technologies especially for women who are unable to negotiate the current HIV prevention options of abstinence, behavior change, condoms and medical male circumcision or early treatment initiation in their relationships. The possibility of an AIDS free generation cannot be realized unless we are able to prevent HIV infection in young women. This review will focus on the epidemiology of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, key drivers of the continued high incidence, mortality rates and priorities for altering current epidemic trajectory in the region. Strategies for optimizing the use of existing and increasingly limited resources are included.

Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health Services and Implications for the Provision of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Results of a Systematic Literature Review

Background

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is a critical HIV prevention tool. Since 2007, sub-Saharan African countries with the highest prevalence of HIV have been mobilizing resources to make VMMC available. While implementers initially targeted adult men, demand has been highest for boys under age 18. It is important to understand how male adolescents can best be served by quality VMMC services.

Methods and Findings

A systematic literature review was performed to synthesize the evidence on best practices in adolescent health service delivery specific to males in sub-Saharan Africa. PubMed, Scopus, and JSTOR databases were searched for literature published between January 1990 and March 2014. The review revealed a general absence of health services addressing the specific needs of male adolescents, resulting in knowledge gaps that could diminish the benefits of VMMC programming for this population. Articles focused specifically on VMMC contained little information on the adolescent subgroup. The review revealed barriers to and gaps in sexual and reproductive health and VMMC service provision to adolescents, including structural factors, imposed feelings of shame, endorsement of traditional gender roles, negative interactions with providers, violations of privacy, fear of pain associated with the VMMC procedure, and a desire for elements of traditional non-medical circumcision methods to be integrated into medical procedures. Factors linked to effective adolescent-focused services included the engagement of parents and the community, an adolescent-friendly service environment, and VMMC counseling messages sufficiently understood by young males.

Conclusions

VMMC presents an opportune time for early involvement of male adolescents in HIV prevention and sexual and reproductive health programming. However, more research is needed to determine how to align VMMC services with the unique needs of this population.

Estimation of country-specific and global prevalence of male circumcision

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision (MC) status and genital infection risk are interlinked and MC is now part of HIV prevention programs worldwide. Current MC prevalence is not known for all countries globally. Our aim was to provide estimates for country-specific and global MC prevalence.

METHODS

MC prevalence data were obtained by searches in PubMed, Demographic and Health Surveys, AIDS Indicator Surveys, and Behavioural Surveillance Surveys. Male age was ≥15 years in most surveys. Where no data were available, the population proportion whose religious faith or culture requires MC was used. The total number of circumcised males in each country and territory was calculated using figures for total males from (i) 2015 US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) data for sex ratio and total population in all 237 countries and territories globally and (ii) 2015 United Nations (UN) figures for males aged 15-64 years.

RESULTS

The estimated percentage of circumcised males in each country and territory varies considerably. Based on (i) and (ii) above, global MC prevalence was 38.7 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 33.4, 43.9) and 36.7 % (95 % CI: 31.4, 42.0). Approximately half of circumcisions were for religious and cultural reasons. For countries lacking data we assumed 99.9 % of Muslims and Jews were circumcised. If actual prevalence in religious groups was lower, then MC prevalence in those countries would be lower. On the other hand, we assumed a minimum prevalence of 0.1 % related to MC for medical reasons. This may be too low, thereby underestimating MC prevalence in some countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study provides the most accurate estimate to date of MC prevalence in each country and territory in the world. We estimate that 37-39 % of men globally are circumcised. Considering the health benefits of MC, these data may help guide efforts aimed at the use of voluntary, safe medical MC in disease prevention programs in various countries.

Estimating finite-population reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations

The basic reproductive number, R0, is one of the most important epidemiological quantities. R0 provides a threshold for elimination and determines when a disease can spread or when a disease will die out. Classically, R0 is calculated assuming an infinite population of identical hosts. Previous work has shown that heterogeneity in the host mixing rate increases R0 in an infinite population. However, it has been suggested that in a finite population, heterogeneity in the mixing rate may actually decrease the finite-population reproductive numbers. Here, we outline a framework for discussing different types of heterogeneity in disease parameters, and how these affect disease spread and control. We calculate “finite-population reproductive numbers” with different types of heterogeneity, and show that in a finite population, heterogeneity has complicated effects on the reproductive number. We find that simple heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive number, whereas heterogeneity in the intrinsic mixing rate (which affects both infectiousness and susceptibility) increases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is small relative to the size of the population and decreases the finite-population reproductive number when R0 is large relative to the size of the population. Although heterogeneity has complicated effects on the finite-population reproductive numbers, its implications for control are straightforward: when R0 is large relative to the size of the population, heterogeneity decreases the finite-population reproductive numbers, making disease control or elimination easier than predicted by R0.

•

Outline a framework for discussing the different types of heterogeneity.

•

Found simple expressions for each of the four different types of heterogeneity and heterogeneity in intrinsic mixing.

•

Showed heterogeneity in finite populations is more complicated than previously thought.

•

Showed that heterogeneity in a finite population makes control easier than predicted by R0 and the homogeneous finite-population reproductive number.

Investigating Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program Efficiency Gains through Subpopulation Prioritization: Insights from Application to Zambia

Background

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling-up voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV intervention. Emerging challenges in these programs call for increased focus on program efficiency (optimizing program impact while minimizing cost). A novel analytic approach was developed to determine how subpopulation prioritization can increase program efficiency using an illustrative application for Zambia.

Methods and Findings

A population-level mathematical model was constructed describing the heterosexual HIV epidemic and impact of VMMC programs (age-structured mathematical (ASM) model). The model stratified the population according to sex, circumcision status, age group, sexual-risk behavior, HIV status, and stage of infection. A three-level conceptual framework was also developed to determine maximum epidemic impact and program efficiency through subpopulation prioritization, based on age, geography, and risk profile. In the baseline scenario, achieving 80% VMMC coverage by 2017 among males 15–49 year old, 12 VMMCs were needed per HIV infection averted (effectiveness). The cost per infection averted (cost-effectiveness) was USD $1,089 and 306,000 infections were averted. Through age-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 11 (20–24 age-group) to 36 (45–49 age-group); cost-effectiveness ranged from $888 (20–24 age-group) to $3,300 (45–49 age-group). Circumcising 10–14, 15–19, or 20–24 year old achieved the largest incidence rate reduction; prioritizing 15–24, 15–29, or 15–34 year old achieved the greatest program efficiency. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 9–12. Prioritizing Lusaka achieved the highest effectiveness. Through risk-group prioritization, prioritizing the highest risk group achieved the highest effectiveness, with only one VMMC needed per infection averted; the lowest risk group required 80 times more VMMCs.

Conclusion

Epidemic impact and efficiency of VMMC programs can be improved by prioritizing young males (sexually active or just before sexual debut), geographic areas with higher HIV prevalence than the national, and high sexual-risk groups.

Voluntary medical male circumcision in resource-constrained settings

Throughout East and Southern Africa, the WHO recommends voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) to reduce heterosexual HIV acquisition. Evidence has informed policy and the implementation of VMMC programmes in these countries. VMMC has been incorporated into the HIV prevention portfolio and more than 9 million VMMCs have been performed. Conventional surgical procedures consist of forceps-guided, dorsal slit or sleeve resection techniques. Devices are also becoming available that might help to accelerate the scale-up of adult VMMC. The ideal device should make VMMC easier, safer, faster, sutureless, inexpensive, less painful, require less infrastructure, be more acceptable to patients and should not require follow-up visits. Elastic collar compression devices cause vascular obstruction and necrosis of foreskin tissue and do not require sutures or injectable anaesthesia. Collar clamp devices compress the proximal part of the foreskin to reach haemostasis; the distal foreskin is removed, but the device remains and therefore no sutures are required. Newer techniques and designs, such as tissue adhesives and a circular cutter with stapled anastomosis, are improvements, but none of these methods have achieved all desirable characteristics. Further research, design and development are needed to address this gap to enable the expansion of the already successful VMMC programmes for HIV prevention.

Acceptability of Male Circumcision among College Students in Medical Universities in Western China: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Male circumcision (MC) has been shown to reduce the risk of female to male transmission of HIV. The goal of this survey was to explore MC’s acceptability and the factors associated with MC among college students in medical universities in western China.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out in three provinces in western China (Guangxi, Chongqing and Xinjiang) to assess the acceptability of MC as well as to discover factors associated with the acceptability among college students in medical universities. A total of 1,790 uncircumcised male students from three medical universities were enrolled in this study. In addition, 150 students who had undergone MC were also enrolled in the survey, and they participated in in-depth interviews.

Results

Of all the uncircumcised participants (n = 1,790), 55.2% (n = 988) were willing to accept MC. Among those who accepted MC, 67.3% thought that MC could improve their sexual partners’ hygiene, 46.3% believed that HIV and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) could be partially prevented by MC. The multivariable logistic regression indicates that MC’s acceptability was associated with three factors: the redundant foreskin (OR = 10.171, 95% CI = 7.629–13.559), knowing the hazard of having a redundant foreskin (OR = 1.597, 95% CI = 1.097–2.323), and enhancing sexual pleasure (OR = 1.628, 95% CI = 1.312–2.021). The in-depth interviews for subjects who had undergone MC showed that the major reason for having MC was the redundant foreskin (87.3%), followed by the benefits and the fewer complications of having MC done. In addition, most of these participants (65.3%) said that the MC could enhance sexual satisfaction.

Conclusions

MC’s acceptance among college students in medical universities is higher than it is among other populations in western China. An implementation of an MC programme among this population is feasible in the future.

Measuring the Potential Impact of Combination HIV Prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa

A public health approach to combination HIV prevention is advocated to contain the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We explore the implications of universal access to treatment along with HIV education scale-up in the region. We develop an HIV transmission model to investigate the impacts of universal access to treatment, as well as an analytical framework to estimate the effects of HIV education scale-up on the epidemic. We calibrate the model with data from South Africa and simulate the impacts of universal access to treatment along with HIV education scale-up on prevalence, incidence, and HIV-related deaths over a course of 15 years. Our results show that the impact of combined interventions is significantly larger than the summation of individual intervention impacts (super-additive property). The combined strategy of universal access to treatment and HIV education scale-up decreases the incidence rate by 74% over the course of 15 years, whereas universal access to treatment and HIV education scale up will separately decrease that by 43% and 8%, respectively. Combination HIV prevention could be notably effective in transforming HIV epidemic to a low-level endemicity. Our results suggest that in designing effective combination prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, priorities should be given to achieving universal access to treatment as quickly as possible and improving compliance to condom use.

Impact of Male Circumcision among heterosexual HIV cases: comparisons between three low HIV prevalence countries

BACKGROUND

Studies performed in high-HIV prevalence countries showed a strong epidemiological association between male circumcision (MC) and the prevention of HIV transmission. We estimated the potential impact of MC on the general heterosexual population in low-HIV prevalence countries.

METHODS

Cross-national comparisons, including data on newly diagnosed HIV cases among heterosexuals living in Israel (where almost all males undergo MC), to similar data from the Netherlands and France (where <10 % of males are circumcised) were performed. National data from HIV registers and Bureaus of Statistics for the period of 2004-2010, global rates, rates by sex, age, and year of HIV-diagnosis were compared. MC and potential biases were examined.

RESULTS

Annual rates of new HIV diagnoses per 100,000 were significantly lower in Israel compared to the Netherlands and France (for men: 0.26-0.70, 1.91-2.28, and 2.69-3.47, respectively; for women: 0.10-0.34, 1.10-2.10 and 2.41-3.08, respectively). Similarly, HIV-rates were much lower in Israel when comparing by age groups. Although Gross National Income per capita in 2010 was lower in Israel compared to the Netherlands and France, access to HIV testing and treatment were not different between countries. Also, the number of sexual-partners and condom-use in the general population showed a high similarity between the countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower rate of HIV among heterosexuals in Israel compared to the Netherlands and France might be explained by MC routinely practiced in Israel, since other parameters of influence on HIV transmission were rather similar between the countries. However, recommendation for systematic MC in low HIV prevalence countries requires further investigations.

Making voluntary medical male circumcision a viable HIV prevention strategy in high prevalence countries by engaging the traditional sector

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been rapidly accepted by global HIV policy and donor institutions as a highly valuable HIV prevention strategy given its cost-effectiveness, limited interactions with a health facility, and projected long-lasting benefits. Many southern African countries have incorporated VMMC into their national HIV prevention strategies. However, intensive VMMC promotion programs have met with limited success to date and many HIV researchers have voiced concerns. This commentary discusses reasons behind the less-than-desired public demand and suggests how inclusion of the traditional sector - traditional leaders, healers, and circumcisers - with their local knowledge, cultural expertise and social capital, particularly in the realm of social meanings ascribed to male circumcision, may improve the uptake of this HIV prevention strategy. We offer Lesotho and Swaziland as case studies of the integration of universal VMMC policies; these are countries with a shared HIV burden, yet contrasting contemporary socio-cultural practices of male circumcision. The similar hesitant responses expressed by these two countries towards VMMC remind us that the incorporation of any new or revised and revitalized public health strategy must be considered within unique historical, political, economic, and socio-cultural contexts.

How much does it cost to improve access to voluntary medical male circumcision among high-risk, low-income communities in Uganda?

Background

The Ugandan Ministry of Health has endorsed voluntary medical male circumcision as an HIV prevention strategy and has set ambitious goals (e.g., 4.2 million circumcisions by 2015). Innovative strategies to improve access for hard to reach, high risk, and poor populations are essential for reaching such goals. In 2009, the Makerere University Walter Reed Project began the first facility-based VMMC program in Uganda in a non-research setting. In addition, a mobile clinic began providing VMMC services to more remote, rural locations in 2011. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the average cost of performing VMMCs in the mobile clinic compared to those performed in health facilities (fixed sites). The difference between such costs is the cost of improving access to VMMC.

Methods

A micro-costing approach was used to estimate costs from the service provider’s perspective of a circumcision. Supply chain and higher-level program support costs are not included.

Results

The average cost (US$2012) of resources used per circumcision was $61 in the mobile program ($72 for more remote locations) compared to $34 at the fixed site. Costs for community mobilization, HIV testing, the initial medical exam, and staff for performing VMMC operations were similar for both programs. The cost of disposable surgical kits, the additional upfront cost for the mobile clinic, and additional costs for staff drive the differences in costs between the two programs. Cost estimates are relatively insensitive to patient flow over time.

Conclusion

The MUWRP VMMC program improves access for hard to reach, relatively poor, and high-risk rural populations for a cost of $27-$38 per VMMC. Costs to patients to access services are almost certainly less in the mobile program, by reducing out-of-pocket travel expenses and lost time and associated income, all of which have been shown to be barriers for accessing treatment.

Circumcision as a primary HIV preventive: extrapolating from the available data

Billions of dollars to circumcise millions of African males as an HIV infection prevention have been sought, yet the effectiveness of circumcision has not been demonstrated. Data from 109 populations comparing HIV prevalence and incidence in men based on circumcision status were evaluated using meta-regression. The impact on the association between circumcision and HIV incidence/prevalence of the HIV risk profile of the population, the circumcision rates within the population and whether the population was in Africa were assessed. No significant difference in the risk of HIV infection based on the circumcision status was seen in general populations. Studies of high-risk populations and populations with a higher prevalence of male circumcision reported significantly greater odds ratios (odds of intact man having HIV) (p < .0001). When adjusted for the impact of a high-risk population and the circumcision rate of the population, the baseline odds ratio was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.56-1.09). No consistent association between presence of HIV infection and circumcision status of adult males in general populations was found. When adjusted for other factors, having a foreskin was not a significant risk factor. This undermines the justification for using circumcision as a primary preventive for HIV infection.

Male circumcision for protection against HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: the evidence in favour justifies the implementation now in progress

This article responds to a recent 'controversy study' in Global Public Health by de Camargo et al. directed at three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention. These trials were conducted in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and published in 2005 and 2007. The RCTs confirmed observational data that had accumulated over the preceding two decades showing that MC reduces by 60% the risk of HIV infection in heterosexual men. Based on the RCT results, MC was adopted by global and national HIV policy-makers as an additional intervention for HIV prevention. Voluntary medical MC (VMMC) is now being implemented in 14 SSA countries. Thus referring to MC for HIV prevention as 'debate' and viewing MC through a lens of controversy seems mistaken. In their criticism, de Camargo et al. misrepresent and misinterpret current science supporting MC for HIV prevention, omit previous denunciations of arguments similar to theirs, and ignore evidence from ongoing scientific research. Here we point out the flaws in three areas de Camargo et al. find contentious. In doing so, we direct readers to growing evidence of MC as an efficacious, safe, acceptable, relatively low-cost one-off biomedical intervention for HIV prevention.

'If you are circumcised, you are the best': understandings and perceptions of voluntary medical male circumcision among men from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

While the uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is increasing, South Africa has only attained 20% of its target to circumcise 80% of adult men by 2015. Understanding the factors influencing uptake is essential to meeting these targets. This qualitative study reports on findings from focus-group discussions with men in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, about what factors influence their perceptions of VMMC. The study found that VMMC is linked to perceptions of masculinity and male gender identity including sexual health, sexual performance and pleasure, possible risk compensation and self-identity. Findings highlight the need to understand how these perceptions of sexual health and performance affect men's decisions to undergo circumcision and the implications for uptake of VMMC. The study also highlights the need for individualised and contextualised information and counselling that can identify, understand and address the perceptions men have of VMMC, and the impacts they believe it will have on them.