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Rucinski K, Knight J, Willis K, Wang L, Rao A, Roach MA, Phaswana-Mafuya R, Bao L, Thiam S, Arimi P, Mishra S, Baral S. Challenges and Opportunities in Big Data Science to Address Health Inequities and Focus the HIV Response. Curr HIV/AIDS Rep 2024:10.1007/s11904-024-00702-3. [PMID: 38916675 DOI: 10.1007/s11904-024-00702-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/31/2024] [Indexed: 06/26/2024]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Big Data Science can be used to pragmatically guide the allocation of resources within the context of national HIV programs and inform priorities for intervention. In this review, we discuss the importance of grounding Big Data Science in the principles of equity and social justice to optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of the global HIV response. RECENT FINDINGS Social, ethical, and legal considerations of Big Data Science have been identified in the context of HIV research. However, efforts to mitigate these challenges have been limited. Consequences include disciplinary silos within the field of HIV, a lack of meaningful engagement and ownership with and by communities, and potential misinterpretation or misappropriation of analyses that could further exacerbate health inequities. Big Data Science can support the HIV response by helping to identify gaps in previously undiscovered or understudied pathways to HIV acquisition and onward transmission, including the consequences for health outcomes and associated comorbidities. However, in the absence of a guiding framework for equity, alongside meaningful collaboration with communities through balanced partnerships, a reliance on big data could continue to reinforce inequities within and across marginalized populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Rucinski
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Jesse Knight
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kalai Willis
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Linwei Wang
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Amrita Rao
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Mary Anne Roach
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Refilwe Phaswana-Mafuya
- South African Medical Research Council/University of Johannesburg Pan African Centre for Epidemics Research (PACER) Extramural Unit, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Le Bao
- Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Safiatou Thiam
- Conseil National de Lutte Contre Le Sida, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Peter Arimi
- Partners for Health and Development in Africa, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation & Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- ICES, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Stefan Baral
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Knight J, Ma H, Sithole B, Khumalo L, Wang L, Schwartz S, Muzart L, Matse S, Mnisi Z, Kaul R, Escobar M, Baral S, Mishra S. Quantifying the impact of cascade inequalities: a modelling study on the prevention impacts of antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Eswatini. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.02.16.24302584. [PMID: 38405846 PMCID: PMC10889039 DOI: 10.1101/2024.02.16.24302584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
Background Inequalities in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) cascade across subpopulations remain an ongoing challenge in the global HIV response. Eswatini achieved the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets by 2020, with differentiated programs to minimize inequalities across subpopulations, including for female sex workers (FSW) and their clients. We sought to estimate additional HIV infections expected in Eswatini if cascade scale-up had not been equal, and under which epidemic conditions these inequalities could have the largest influence. Methods Drawing on population-level and FSW-specific surveys in Eswatini, we developed a compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission which included eight subpopulations and four sexual partnership types. We calibrated the model to stratified HIV prevalence, incidence, and ART cascade data. Taking observed cascade scale-up in Eswatini as the base-case-reaching 95-95-95 in the overall population by 2020-we defined four counterfactual scenarios in which the population overall reached 80-80-90 by 2020, but where FSW, clients, both, or neither were disproportionately left behind, reaching only 60-40-80. We quantified relative additional cumulative HIV infections by 2030 in counterfactual vs base-case scenarios. We further estimated linear effects of viral suppression gap among FSW and clients on additional infections by 2030, plus effect modification by FSW/client population sizes, rates of turnover, and HIV prevalence ratios. Results Compared with the base-case scenario, leaving behind neither FSW nor their clients led to the fewest additional infections by 2030: median (95% credible interval) 14.9 (10.4, 18.4)% vs 26.3 (19.7, 33.0)% if both were left behind-a 73 (40, 149)% increase. The effect of lower cascade on additional infections was larger for clients vs FSW, and both effects increased with population size and relative HIV incidence. Conclusions Inequalities in the ART cascade across subpopulations can undermine the anticipated prevention impacts of cascade scale-up. As Eswatini has shown, addressing inequalities in the ART cascade, particularly those that intersect with high transmission risk, could maximize incidence reductions from cascade scale-up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse Knight
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto
| | - Huiting Ma
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
| | | | | | - Linwei Wang
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
| | | | | | | | | | - Rupert Kaul
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto
| | | | - Stefan Baral
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Unity Health Toronto
- Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario
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Monod M, Brizzi A, Galiwango RM, Ssekubugu R, Chen Y, Xi X, Kankaka EN, Ssempijja V, Abeler-Dörner L, Akullian A, Blenkinsop A, Bonsall D, Chang LW, Dan S, Fraser C, Golubchik T, Gray RH, Hall M, Jackson JC, Kigozi G, Laeyendecker O, Mills LA, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Santelli J, Sewankambo NK, Spencer SEF, Ssekasanvu J, Thomson L, Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Godfrey-Faussett P, Kagaayi J, Grabowski MK, Ratmann O. Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda. Nat Microbiol 2024; 9:35-54. [PMID: 38052974 PMCID: PMC10769880 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01530-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023]
Abstract
HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mélodie Monod
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Andrea Brizzi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | | | - Yu Chen
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Xiaoyue Xi
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Edward Nelson Kankaka
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Research Department, Rakai Health Sciences Program, Rakai, Uganda
| | - Victor Ssempijja
- Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA
- Statistics Department, Rakai Health Sciences Program, Rakai, Uganda
| | | | | | | | - David Bonsall
- Wellcome Centre for Human Genomics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Larry W Chang
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Shozen Dan
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tanya Golubchik
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Ronald H Gray
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Matthew Hall
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jade C Jackson
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Oliver Laeyendecker
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lisa A Mills
- Division of Global HIV and TB, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Thomas C Quinn
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Steven J Reynolds
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - John Santelli
- Population and Family Health and Pediatrics, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Nelson K Sewankambo
- College of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | | | - Joseph Ssekasanvu
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Laura Thomson
- Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Maria J Wawer
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David Serwadda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda
- College of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Peter Godfrey-Faussett
- Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - M Kate Grabowski
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Oliver Ratmann
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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Monod M, Brizzi A, Galiwango RM, Ssekubugu R, Chen Y, Xi X, Kankaka EN, Ssempijja V, Dörner LA, Akullian A, Blenkinsop A, Bonsall D, Chang LW, Dan S, Fraser C, Golubchik T, Gray RH, Hall M, Jackson JC, Kigozi G, Laeyendecker O, Mills LA, Quinn TC, Reynolds SJ, Santelli J, Sewankambo NK, Spencer SE, Ssekasanvu J, Thomson L, Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Godfrey-Faussett P, Kagaayi J, Grabowski MK, Ratmann O. Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.03.16.23287351. [PMID: 36993261 PMCID: PMC10055554 DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.16.23287351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.
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Gurski K, Hoffman K. Staged HIV transmission and treatment in a dynamic model with long-term partnerships. J Math Biol 2023; 86:74. [PMID: 37052718 PMCID: PMC10100640 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-01885-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Revised: 01/02/2023] [Accepted: 01/29/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
The transmission dynamics of HIV are closely tied to the duration and overlap of sexual partnerships. We develop an autonomous population model that can account for the possibilities of an infection from either a casual sexual partner or a long-term partner who was either infected at the start of the partnership or has been newly infected since the onset of the partnership. The impact of the long-term partnerships on the rate of infection is captured by calculating the expected values of the rate of infection from these extended contacts. The model includes three stages of infectiousness: acute, chronic, and virally suppressed. We calculate HIV incidence and the fraction of new infections attributed to casual contacts and long-term partnerships allowing for variability in condom usage, the effect of achieving and maintaining viral suppression, and early intervention by beginning HAART during the acute phase of infection. We present our results using data on MSM HIV transmission from the CDC in the U.S. While the acute stage is the most infectious, the majority of the new infections will be transmitted by long-term partners in the chronic stage when condom use is infrequent as is common in long-term relationships. Time series analysis of the solution, as well as parameter sensitivity analysis, are used to determine effective intervention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharine Gurski
- Department of Mathematics, Howard University, Washington, DC, 20059, USA.
| | - Kathleen Hoffman
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, 21250, USA.
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Vaz-Pinto I, Gorgulho A, Esteves C, Guimarães M, Castro V, Carrodeguas A, Medina D. Increasing HIV early diagnosis by implementing an automated screening strategy in emergency departments. HIV Med 2022; 23:1153-1162. [PMID: 36320172 PMCID: PMC10092854 DOI: 10.1111/hiv.13431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Late HIV diagnosis is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and risk of onward transmission. Increasing HIV early diagnosis is still a priority. In this observational study with historical control, we determined the impact of an opportunistic HIV screening strategy in the reduction of late diagnosis and missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis. METHODS The screening programme was implemented in the emergency department (ED) of the Hospital de Cascais between September 2018 and September 2021. Eligible patients were aged 18-64 years, with no known HIV diagnosis or antibody testing performed in the previous year, and who required blood work for any reason. Out of the 252 153 emergency visits to the ED, we identified 43 153 (17.1%) patients eligible for HIV testing. Among the total population eligible for the screening, 38 357 (88.9%) patients were ultimately tested for HIV. Impact of the ED screening was determined by analysing late diagnosis in the ED and missed opportunities at different healthcare settings 3 years before and 3 years after the start of the ED screening. RESULTS After 3 years of automated HIV ED testing, we found 69 newly diagnosed HIV cases (54% male, 39% Portuguese nationals, mean age 40.5 years). When comparing the characteristics of HIV diagnoses made in the ED, we observed a significant reduction in the number of people with late HIV diagnosis before and after implementation of the screening programme (78.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively; p = 0.0291). The mean number of missed opportunities for diagnosis also fell (2.6 vs. 1.5 annual encounters with the healthcare system per patient, p = 0.0997). CONCLUSIONS People living with HIV in Cascais and their providers miss several opportunities for earlier diagnosis. Opportunistic screening strategies in settings previously deemed to be unconventional, such as EDs, are feasible and effective in mitigating missed opportunities for timely HIV diagnosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Inês Vaz-Pinto
- HIV-AIDS Functional Unit, Cascais Hospital Dr. José de Almeida, Cascais, Portugal
| | - Ana Gorgulho
- HIV-AIDS Functional Unit, Cascais Hospital Dr. José de Almeida, Cascais, Portugal
| | - Catarina Esteves
- HIV-AIDS Functional Unit, Cascais Hospital Dr. José de Almeida, Cascais, Portugal
| | - Mafalda Guimarães
- HIV-AIDS Functional Unit, Cascais Hospital Dr. José de Almeida, Cascais, Portugal
| | - Vanda Castro
- HIV-AIDS Functional Unit, Cascais Hospital Dr. José de Almeida, Cascais, Portugal
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Kazemian P, Ding DD, Scott JA, Feser MK, Biello K, Thomas BE, Dange A, Bedoya CA, Balu V, Rawat S, Kumarasamy N, Mimiaga MJ, O'Cleirigh C, Weinstein MC, Kumar JP, Kumar S, Mayer KH, Safren SA, Freedberg KA. The cost-effectiveness of a resilience-based psychosocial intervention for HIV prevention among MSM in India. AIDS 2022; 36:1223-1232. [PMID: 35471644 PMCID: PMC9283429 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000003231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE MSM in India are at a high risk for HIV infection given psychosocial challenges, sexual orientation stress, and stigma. We examined the cost-effectiveness of a novel resilience-based psychosocial intervention for MSM in India. DESIGN We parameterized a validated microsimulation model (CEPAC) with India-specific data and results from a randomized trial and examined two strategies for MSM: status quo HIV care ( SQ ), and a trial-based psychosocial intervention ( INT ) focused on building resilience to stress, improving mental health, and reducing condomless anal sex (CAS). METHODS We projected lifetime clinical and economic outcomes for MSM without HIV initially. Intervention effectiveness, defined as reduction in self-reported CAS, was estimated at 38%; cost was $49.37/participant. We used a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$2100 (2019 Indian per capita GDP) per year of life saved (YLS) to define cost-effectiveness. We also assessed the 5-year budget impact of offering this intervention to 20% of Indian MSM. RESULTS Model projections showed the intervention would avert 2940 HIV infections among MSM over 10 years. Over a lifetime horizon, the intervention was cost-effective (ICER = $900/YLS). Results were most sensitive to intervention effectiveness and cost; the intervention remained cost-effective under plausible ranges of these parameters. Offering this intervention in the public sector would require an additional US$28 M over 5 years compared with SQ . CONCLUSION A resilience-based psychosocial intervention integrated with HIV risk reduction counseling among MSM in India would reduce HIV infections and be cost-effective. Programs using this approach should be expanded as a part of comprehensive HIV prevention in India.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pooyan Kazemian
- Department of Operations, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Delaney D Ding
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Justine A Scott
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Mary K Feser
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Katie Biello
- Center for Health Promotion and Health Equity
- Department of Behavioral and Social Sciences
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island
- The Fenway Institute, Fenway Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Beena E Thomas
- National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu
| | | | - C Andres Bedoya
- Behavioral Medicine Program, Massachusetts General Hospital
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Vinoth Balu
- National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu
| | | | - Nagalingeswaran Kumarasamy
- CART Clinical Research Site, Infectious Diseases Medical Centre, Voluntary Health Services, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Matthew J Mimiaga
- The Fenway Institute, Fenway Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health
- Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, UCLA Geffen School of Medicine
- UCLA Center for LGBTQ+ Advocacy, Research & Health, Los Angeles, California
| | - Conall O'Cleirigh
- The Fenway Institute, Fenway Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Behavioral Medicine Program, Massachusetts General Hospital
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Jacob Prem Kumar
- National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu
| | | | - Kenneth H Mayer
- The Fenway Institute, Fenway Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
- Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Steven A Safren
- Center for HIV and Research in Mental Health
- Health Promotion and Care Research Program
- Department of Psychology, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
| | - Kenneth A Freedberg
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Health Policy and Management
- Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Division of General Internal Medicine
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Herd immunity under individual variation and reinfection. J Math Biol 2022; 85:2. [PMID: 35773525 PMCID: PMC9246817 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-022-01771-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2021] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 06/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
We study a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model considered by Aguas et al. (In: Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics, 2021), Gomes et al. (In: J Theor Biol. 540:111063, 2022) where individuals are assumed to differ in their susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity assumption, epidemic growth is effectively suppressed when the percentage of the population having acquired immunity surpasses a critical level - the herd immunity threshold - that is lower than in homogeneous populations. We derive explicit formulas to calculate herd immunity thresholds and stable configurations, especially when susceptibility or exposure are gamma distributed, and explore extensions of the model.
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Zang X, Goedel WC, Bessey SE, Lurie MN, Galea S, Galvani AP, Friedman SR, Nosyk B, Marshall BDL. The impact of syringe services program closure on the risk of rebound HIV outbreaks among people who inject drugs: a modeling study. AIDS 2022; 36:881-888. [PMID: 35212666 PMCID: PMC9081164 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000003199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Despite their effectiveness in preventing the transmission of HIV among people who inject drugs (PWID), syringe services programs (SSPs) in many settings are hampered by social and political opposition. We aimed to estimate the impact of closure and temporary interruption of SSP on the HIV epidemic in a rural United States setting. METHODS Using an agent-based model (ABM) calibrated to observed surveillance data, we simulated HIV risk behaviors and transmission in adult populations who inject and do not inject drugs in Scott County, Indiana. We projected HIV incidence and prevalence between 2020 and 2025 for scenarios with permanent closure, delayed closure (one additional renewal for 24 months before closure), and temporary closure (lasting 12 months) of an SSP in comparison to persistent SSP operation. RESULTS With sustained SSP operation, we projected an incidence rate of 0.15 per 100 person-years among the overall population (95% simulation interval: 0.06-0.28). Permanently closing the SSP would cause an average of 58.4% increase in the overall incidence rate during 2021-2025, resulting in a higher prevalence of 60.8% (50.9-70.6%) (18.7% increase) among PWID by 2025. A delayed closure would increase the incidence rate by 38.9%. A temporary closure would cause 12 (35.3%) more infections during 2020-2021. CONCLUSION Our analysis suggests that temporary interruption and permanent closure of existing SSPs operating in rural United States may lead to 'rebound' HIV outbreaks among PWID. To reach and sustain HIV epidemic control, it will be necessary to maintain existing and implement new SSPs in combination with other prevention interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Zang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Williams C Goedel
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Sam E Bessey
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Mark N Lurie
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Sandro Galea
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Alison P Galvani
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
- Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
- School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Samuel R Friedman
- Department of Population Health, Grossman School of Medicine, New York University, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Bohdan Nosyk
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Brandon D L Marshall
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
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Nakajo K, Nishiura H. Estimation of R(t) based on illness onset data: An analysis of 1907–1908 smallpox epidemic in Tokyo. Epidemics 2022; 38:100545. [DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2020] [Revised: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
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Zang X, Mah C, Linh Quan AM, Min JE, Armstrong WS, Behrends CN, Del Rio C, Dombrowski JC, Feaster DJ, Kirk GD, Marshall BDL, Mehta SH, Metsch LR, Pandya A, Schackman BR, Shoptaw S, Strathdee SA, Krebs E, Nosyk B. Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2022; 89:143-150. [PMID: 34723929 PMCID: PMC8752472 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities. METHODS We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year. RESULTS Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore. CONCLUSION These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Zang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, United States
| | - Cassandra Mah
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University; Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Amanda My Linh Quan
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University; Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jeong Eun Min
- Center for Health Evaluation and Outcome Sciences; Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Wendy S Armstrong
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Czarina N Behrends
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York City, New York, United States
| | - Carlos Del Rio
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Julia C Dombrowski
- Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy and Infectious Disease, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States
| | - Daniel J Feaster
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, United States
| | - Gregory D. Kirk
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States
| | - Brandon DL Marshall
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, United States
| | - Shruti H Mehta
- Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States
| | - Lisa R Metsch
- Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York City, New York, United States
| | - Ankur Pandya
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Bruce R Schackman
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York City, New York, United States
| | - Steven Shoptaw
- School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States
| | - Steffanie A Strathdee
- School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States
| | - Emanuel Krebs
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University; Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- Center for Health Evaluation and Outcome Sciences; Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Bohdan Nosyk
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University; Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
- Center for Health Evaluation and Outcome Sciences; Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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12
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De Clercq J, Rutsaert S, De Scheerder MA, Verhofstede C, Callens S, Vandekerckhove L. Benefits of antiretroviral therapy initiation during acute HIV infection. Acta Clin Belg 2022; 77:168-176. [PMID: 32468932 DOI: 10.1080/17843286.2020.1770413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Abstract
Objectives: In the last decade, there has been increasing scientific and legislative focus on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all people living with HIV. Especially early ART initiation, preferably during acute HIV infection, has been named as a promising strategy, both for the individual and for the society. This article will review the benefits and possible future applications of immediate ART initiation during acute HIV infection and explore the remaining hurdles towards this strategy.Results: On an individual level, initiation of ART during acute HIV infection limits the viral reservoir, preserves immune function, and decreases systemic inflammation. In addition, obtaining viral suppression soon after infection can be beneficial for the society by decreasing the chance of onward HIV transmission. Reducing the transmission will reduce HIV incidence and can curtail HIV-related health expenditure. Furthermore, the favorable immunological and virological profile obtained by treating during acute HIV infection will form an ideal starting point for several HIV cure strategies.Conclusions: Initiation of ART during acute HIV infection has shown distinct benefits for the individual, for the society, and for future research on HIV cure. In order to implement this strategy, equal focus should be placed on early diagnosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jozefien De Clercq
- HIV Cure Research Center, Department of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- Department of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Sofie Rutsaert
- HIV Cure Research Center, Department of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | | | - Chris Verhofstede
- AIDS Reference Laboratory, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Steven Callens
- Department of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Linos Vandekerckhove
- HIV Cure Research Center, Department of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- Department of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
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13
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Marston M, Risher K, Mahy MI. HIV acquisition in pregnancy: implications for mother-to-child transmission at the population level in sub-Saharan Africa. J Int AIDS Soc 2021; 24 Suppl 5:e25783. [PMID: 34546647 PMCID: PMC8454677 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction A recent sero‐discordant couple study showed an elevated risk of HIV‐acquisition during the pregnancy/postpartum period per‐condomless‐coital‐act. This, along with previous studies, has led to concern over possible increased risk of mother‐to‐child (vertical) transmission, due to the initial high viral load in the first months after seroconversion, in a time when the woman and health services may be unaware of her status. This study looks at whether behavioural differences during the pregnant/postpartum period could reduce the impact of elevated risk of HIV acquisition per‐condomless‐coital‐act at the population level. Methods We used data from 60 demographic and health surveys from 32 sub‐Saharan African countries. Using the HIV status of couples, we estimated differences in serodiscordancy between HIV‐negative women who were pregnant/postpartum compared to those who were not pregnant/postpartum. We compare the risk of sexual activity over the pregnant/postpartum period to those not pregnant/postpartum. Using these risks of serodiscordancy and sexual activity along with estimates of increased HIV risk in the pregnancy/postpartum period per‐condomless‐coital‐act, we estimated a population‐level risk of HIV acquisition and acute infection, during pregnancy/postpartum compared to those not pregnant/postpartum. Results Sexual activity during pregnancy/postpartum varies considerably. In general, sexual activity is high in the first trimester of pregnancy, then declines to levels lower than among women not pregnant/postpartum, and is at its lowest in the first months postpartum. Adjusted for age and survey, pooled results show HIV‐negative pregnant women are less likely to have an HIV‐positive partner compared to those not pregnant/postpartum (risk ratio (RR) = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68–0.89) and comparing the postpartum period (RR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.73–0.99). Estimated population‐level risk for HIV acquisition and acute infection in pregnancy/postpartum was lower than would be inferred directly from per‐condomless‐coital‐act estimates in most countries, over the time of most risk of mother‐to‐child transmission, though there was variation by country and month of pregnancy/postpartum. Conclusions Estimates of population‐level HIV acquisition risk in sub‐Saharan Africa should not be taken directly from per‐condomless‐coital‐act studies to estimate vertical transmission. Changes in sexual behaviour and differences in HIV‐serodiscordancy during pregnancy/postpartum reduce the impact of increased risk of HIV acquisition per‐condomless‐coital‐act, this will vary by region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Milly Marston
- Department of Population Health, London Schoolof Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kathryn Risher
- Department of Population Health, London Schoolof Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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14
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Pickles M, Cori A, Probert WJM, Sauter R, Hinch R, Fidler S, Ayles H, Bock P, Donnell D, Wilson E, Piwowar-Manning E, Floyd S, Hayes RJ, Fraser C. PopART-IBM, a highly efficient stochastic individual-based simulation model of generalised HIV epidemics developed in the context of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1009301. [PMID: 34473700 PMCID: PMC8478209 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2020] [Revised: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 07/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models are powerful tools in HIV epidemiology, producing quantitative projections of key indicators such as HIV incidence and prevalence. In order to improve the accuracy of predictions, such models need to incorporate a number of behavioural and biological heterogeneities, especially those related to the sexual network within which HIV transmission occurs. An individual-based model, which explicitly models sexual partnerships, is thus often the most natural type of model to choose. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, a computationally efficient individual-based model capable of simulating 50 years of an HIV epidemic in a large, high-prevalence community in under a minute. We show how the model calibrates within a Bayesian inference framework to detailed age- and sex-stratified data from multiple sources on HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV status, ART status, and viral suppression for an HPTN 071 (PopART) study community in Zambia, and present future projections of HIV prevalence and incidence for this community in the absence of trial intervention. In this paper we present PopART-IBM, an individual-based model used to simulate HIV transmission in communities in high prevalence settings. We show that PopART-IBM can simulate transmission over a span of decades in a large community in less than a minute. This computational efficiency allows us to calibrate the model within an inference framework, and we show an illustrative example of calibration using an adaptive population Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm for a community in Zambia that was part of the HPTN-071 (PopART) trial. We compare the detailed model output to real-world data collected during the trial from this community. Finally, we project how the HIV epidemic would have changed over time in this community if no intervention from the trial had occurred.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Pickles
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Anne Cori
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - William J. M. Probert
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Rafael Sauter
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Robert Hinch
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Sarah Fidler
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Imperial College NIHR BRC, London, United Kingdom
| | - Helen Ayles
- Zambart, School of Public Health, University of Zambia, Ridgeway Campus, Lusaka, Zambia
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Peter Bock
- Desmond Tutu TB Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Deborah Donnell
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Ethan Wilson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Estelle Piwowar-Manning
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland United States of America
| | - Sian Floyd
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Richard J. Hayes
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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15
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Abstract
HIV incidence has recently been in decline across some of the most intense epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa due to the scale-up of prevention and transmission-blocking treatments. Understanding whether declines in incidence are being felt equally across age and gender can help prioritize demographic groups where more effort is needed to lower transmission. We found that HIV incidence has declined disproportionately in the youngest men and women in a population with the highest HIV prevalence in the world. Shifts in the age distribution of risk may be the consequence of aging prevalence, prioritized prevention to younger individuals, and delays in age at infection from reduced overall force of infection. Our results highlight the need to expand age targets for HIV prevention. Recent declines in adult HIV-1 incidence have followed the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy and primary HIV prevention across high-burden communities of sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modeling suggests that HIV risk will decline disproportionately in younger adult age-groups as interventions scale, concentrating new HIV infections in those >age 25 over time. Yet, no empirical data exist to support these projections. We conducted a population-based cohort study over a 16-y period (2004 to 2019), spanning the early scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision, to estimate changes in the age distribution of HIV incidence in a hyperepidemic region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV incidence has recently declined. Median age of HIV seroconversion increased by 5.5 y in men and 3.0 y in women, and the age of peak HIV incidence increased by 5.0 y in men and 2.0 y in women. Incidence declined disproportionately among young men (64% in men 15 to 19, 68% in men 20 to 24, and 46% in men 25 to 29) and young women (44% in women 15 to 19, 24% in women 20 to 24) comparing periods pre- versus post-universal test and treat. Incidence was stable (<20% change) in women aged 30 to 39 and men aged 30 to 34. Age shifts in incidence occurred after 2012 and were observed earlier in men than in women. These results provide direct epidemiological evidence of the changing demographics of HIV risk in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of large-scale treatment and prevention. More attention is needed to address lagging incidence decline among older individuals.
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16
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Thomas R, Probert WJM, Sauter R, Mwenge L, Singh S, Kanema S, Vanqa N, Harper A, Burger R, Cori A, Pickles M, Bell-Mandla N, Yang B, Bwalya J, Phiri M, Shanaube K, Floyd S, Donnell D, Bock P, Ayles H, Fidler S, Hayes RJ, Fraser C, Hauck K. Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial. Lancet Glob Health 2021; 9:e668-e680. [PMID: 33721566 PMCID: PMC8050197 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00034-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2020] [Revised: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of HIV compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention. METHODS Using an individual-based model, we simulated the PopART intervention and standard care with antiretroviral therapy (ART) provided according to national guidelines for the 21 trial communities in Zambia and South Africa (for all individuals aged >14 years), with model parameters and primary cost data collected during the PopART trial and from published sources. Two intervention scenarios were modelled: annual rounds of PopART from 2014 to 2030 (PopART 2014-30; as the UNAIDS Fast-Track target year) and three rounds of PopART throughout the trial intervention period (PopART 2014-17). For each country, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and cost per HIV infection averted. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were used to indicate the probability of PopART being cost-effective compared with standard care at different thresholds of cost per DALY averted. We also assessed budget impact by projecting undiscounted costs of the intervention compared with standard care up to 2030. FINDINGS During 2014-17, the mean cost per person per year of delivering home-based HIV counselling and testing, linkage to care, promotion of ART adherence, and voluntary medical male circumcision via community HIV care providers for the simulated population was US$6·53 (SD 0·29) in Zambia and US$7·93 (0·16) in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-30 scenario, median ICERs for PopART delivered annually until 2030 were $2111 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1827-2462) per HIV infection averted in Zambia and $3248 (2472-3963) per HIV infection averted in South Africa; and $593 (95% CrI 526-674) per DALY averted in Zambia and $645 (538-757) per DALY averted in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-17 scenario, PopART averted one infection at a cost of $1318 (1098-1591) in Zambia and $2236 (1601-2916) in South Africa, and averted one DALY at $258 (225-298) in Zambia and $326 (266-391) in South Africa, when outcomes were projected until 2030. The intervention had almost 100% probability of being cost-effective at thresholds greater than $700 per DALY averted in Zambia, and greater than $800 per DALY averted in South Africa, in the PopART 2014-30 scenario. Incremental programme costs for annual rounds until 2030 were $46·12 million (for a mean of 341 323 people) in Zambia and $30·24 million (for a mean of 165 852 people) in South Africa. INTERPRETATION Combination prevention with universal home-based testing can be delivered at low annual cost per person but accumulates to a considerable amount when scaled for a growing population. Combination prevention including UTT is cost-effective at thresholds greater than $800 per DALY averted and can be an efficient strategy to reduce HIV incidence in high-prevalence settings. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ranjeeta Thomas
- Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
| | - William J M Probert
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rafael Sauter
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Surya Singh
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Nosivuyile Vanqa
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Abigail Harper
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Ronelle Burger
- Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Anne Cori
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Michael Pickles
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Nomtha Bell-Mandla
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Blia Yang
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | | | | | - Sian Floyd
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Peter Bock
- Desmond Tutu Tuberculosis Centre, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Helen Ayles
- Zambart, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; Department of Clinical Research, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sarah Fidler
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Richard J Hayes
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Katharina Hauck
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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17
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Kazemian P, Costantini S, Kumarasamy N, Paltiel AD, Mayer KH, Chandhiok N, Walensky RP, Freedberg KA. The Cost-effectiveness of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Preexposure Prophylaxis and HIV Testing Strategies in High-risk Groups in India. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 70:633-642. [PMID: 30921454 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2018] [Accepted: 03/21/2019] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in India is concentrated among 3.1 million men who have sex with men (MSM) and 1.1 million people who inject drugs (PWID), with a mean incidence of 0.9-1.4 per 100 person-years. We examined the cost-effectiveness of both preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and HIV testing strategies for MSM and PWID in India. METHODS We populated an HIV microsimulation model with India-specific data and projected clinical and economic outcomes of 7 strategies for MSM/PWID, including status quo; a 1-time HIV test; routine HIV testing every 3, 6, or 12 months; and PrEP with HIV testing every 3 or 6 months. We used a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1950, the 2017 Indian per capita gross domestic product, to define cost-effectiveness. RESULTS HIV testing alone increased life expectancy by 0.07-0.30 years in MSM; PrEP added approximately 0.90 life-years to status quo. Results were similar in PWID. PrEP with 6-month testing was cost-effective for both MSM (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER], $1000/year of life saved [YLS]) and PWID (ICER, $500/YLS). Results were most sensitive to HIV incidence. PrEP with 6-month testing would increase HIV-related expenditures by US$708 million (MSM) and US$218 million (PWID) over 5 years compared to status quo. CONCLUSIONS While the World Health Organization recommends PrEP with quarterly HIV testing, our analysis identifies PrEP with semiannual testing as the cost-effective HIV prevention strategy for Indian MSM and PWID. Since nationwide scale-up would require a substantial fiscal investment, areas of highest HIV incidence may be the appropriate initial targets for PrEP scale-up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pooyan Kazemian
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Boston, Massachusetts.,Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.,Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | - Nagalingeswaran Kumarasamy
- CART Clinical Research Site, Infectious Diseases Medical Centre, Voluntary Health Services, Chennai, India
| | - A David Paltiel
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Kenneth H Mayer
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Fenway Institute, Fenway Health, Boston, Massachusetts.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Nomita Chandhiok
- Indian Council of Medical Research, Ansari Nagar, New Delhi, India
| | - Rochelle P Walensky
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Boston, Massachusetts.,Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.,Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.,Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Kenneth A Freedberg
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Boston, Massachusetts.,Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.,Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.,Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts
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18
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Goedel WC, King MRF, Lurie MN, Galea S, Townsend JP, Galvani AP, Friedman SR, Marshall BDL. Implementation of Syringe Services Programs to Prevent Rapid Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Rural Counties in the United States: A Modeling Study. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 70:1096-1102. [PMID: 31143944 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2019] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Syringe services programs (SSPs) are effective venues for delivering harm-reduction services to people who inject drugs (PWID). However, SSPs often face significant barriers to implementation, particularly in the absence of known human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks. METHODS Using an agent-based model, we simulated HIV transmission in Scott County, Indiana, a rural county with a 1.7% prevalence of injection drug use. We compared outcomes arising in the absence of an SSP, in the presence of a pre-existing SSP, and with implementation of an SSP after the detection of an HIV outbreak among PWID over 5 years following the introduction of a single infection into the network. RESULTS In the absence of an SSP, the model predicted an average of 176 infections among PWID over 5 years or an incidence rate of 12.1/100 person-years. Proactive implementation averted 154 infections and decreased incidence by 90.3%. With reactive implementation beginning operations 10 months after the first infection, an SSP would prevent 107 infections and decrease incidence by 60.8%. Reductions in incidence were also observed among people who did not inject drugs. CONCLUSIONS Based on model predictions, proactive implementation of an SSP in Scott County had the potential to avert more HIV infections than reactive implementation after the detection of an outbreak. The predicted impact of reactive SSP implementation was highly dependent on timely implementation after detecting the earliest infections. Consequently, there is a need for expanded proactive SSP implementation in the context of enhanced monitoring of outbreak vulnerability in Scott County and similar rural contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- William C Goedel
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Maximilian R F King
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Mark N Lurie
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Sandro Galea
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Massachusetts
| | - Jeffrey P Townsend
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.,Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.,Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Alison P Galvani
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.,Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.,Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Samuel R Friedman
- National Development and Research Institutes, Inc, New York, New York
| | - Brandon D L Marshall
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
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19
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Villabona-Arenas CJ, Hall M, Lythgoe KA, Gaffney SG, Regoes RR, Hué S, Atkins KE. Number of HIV-1 founder variants is determined by the recency of the source partner infection. Science 2020; 369:103-108. [PMID: 32631894 DOI: 10.1126/science.aba5443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2019] [Accepted: 05/11/2020] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
During sexual transmission, the high genetic diversity of HIV-1 within an individual is frequently reduced to one founder variant that initiates infection. Understanding the drivers of this bottleneck is crucial to developing effective infection control strategies. Little is known about the importance of the source partner during this bottleneck. To test the hypothesis that the source partner affects the number of HIV founder variants, we developed a phylodynamic model calibrated using genetic and epidemiological data on all existing transmission pairs for whom the direction of transmission and the infection stage of the source partner are known. Our results suggest that acquiring infection from someone in the acute (early) stage of infection increases the risk of multiple-founder variant transmission compared with acquiring infection from someone in the chronic (later) stage of infection. This study provides the first direct test of source partner characteristics to explain the low frequency of multiple-founder strain infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ch Julián Villabona-Arenas
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Hall
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Katrina A Lythgoe
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Stephen G Gaffney
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Roland R Regoes
- Institute of Integrative Biology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Stéphane Hué
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Katherine E Atkins
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. .,Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.,Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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20
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Kazemian P, Costantini S, Neilan AM, Resch SC, Walensky RP, Weinstein MC, Freedberg KA. A novel method to estimate the indirect community benefit of HIV interventions using a microsimulation model of HIV disease. J Biomed Inform 2020; 107:103475. [PMID: 32526280 PMCID: PMC7374016 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbi.2020.103475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2019] [Revised: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 06/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Microsimulation models of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease that simulate individual patients one at a time and assess clinical and economic outcomes of HIV interventions often provide key details regarding direct individual clinical benefits ("individual benefit"), but they may lack detail on transmissions, and thus may underestimate an intervention's indirect benefits ("community benefit"). Dynamic transmission models can be used to simulate HIV transmissions, but they may do so at the expense of the clinical detail of microsimulations. We sought to develop, validate, and demonstrate a practical, novel method that can be integrated into existing HIV microsimulation models to capture this community benefit, integrating the effects of reduced transmission while keeping the clinical detail of microsimulations. METHODS We developed a new method to capture the community benefit of HIV interventions by estimating HIV transmissions from the primary cohort of interest. The method captures the benefit of averting infections within the cohort of interest by estimating a corresponding gradual decline in incidence within the cohort. For infections averted outside the cohort of interest, our method estimates transmissions averted based on reductions in HIV viral load within the cohort, and the benefit (life-years gained and cost savings) of averting those infections based on the time they were averted. To assess the validity of our method, we paired it with the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) Model - a validated and widely-published microsimulation model of HIV disease. We then compared the consistency of model-estimated outcomes against outcomes of a widely-validated dynamic compartmental transmission model of HIV disease, the HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics (HOPE) model, using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with a two-way mixed effects model. Replicating an analysis done with HOPE, validation endpoints were number of HIV transmissions averted by offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) in the US at various uptake and efficacy levels. Finally, we demonstrated an application of our method in a different setting by evaluating the clinical and economic outcomes of a PrEP program for MSM in India, a country currently considering PrEP rollout for this high-risk group. RESULTS The new method paired with CEPAC demonstrated excellent consistency with the HOPE model (ICC = 0.98 for MSM and 0.99 for PWID). With only the individual benefit of the intervention incorporated, a PrEP program for MSM in India averted 43,000 transmissions over a 5-year period and resulted in a lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$2,300/year-of-life saved (YLS) compared to the status quo. After applying both the direct (individual) and indirect (community) benefits, PrEP averted 86,000 transmissions over the same period and resulted in an ICER of US$600/YLS. CONCLUSIONS Our method enables HIV microsimulation models that evaluate clinical and economic outcomes of HIV interventions to estimate the community benefit of these interventions (in terms of survival gains and cost savings) efficiently and without sacrificing clinical detail. This method addresses an important methodological gap in health economics microsimulation modeling and allows decision scientists to make more accurate policy recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pooyan Kazemian
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Sydney Costantini
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Anne M Neilan
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of General Academic Pediatrics, Department of Pediatrics, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Stephen C Resch
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Rochelle P Walensky
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Milton C Weinstein
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Kenneth A Freedberg
- Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of General Internal Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
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21
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Moshiri N, Ragonnet-Cronin M, Wertheim JO, Mirarab S. FAVITES: simultaneous simulation of transmission networks, phylogenetic trees and sequences. Bioinformatics 2020; 35:1852-1861. [PMID: 30395173 DOI: 10.1093/bioinformatics/bty921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 10/29/2018] [Accepted: 11/01/2018] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
MOTIVATION The ability to simulate epidemics as a function of model parameters allows insights that are unobtainable from real datasets. Further, reconstructing transmission networks for fast-evolving viruses like Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may have the potential to greatly enhance epidemic intervention, but transmission network reconstruction methods have been inadequately studied, largely because it is difficult to obtain 'truth' sets on which to test them and properly measure their performance. RESULTS We introduce FrAmework for VIral Transmission and Evolution Simulation (FAVITES), a robust framework for simulating realistic datasets for epidemics that are caused by fast-evolving pathogens like HIV. FAVITES creates a generative model to produce contact networks, transmission networks, phylogenetic trees and sequence datasets, and to add error to the data. FAVITES is designed to be extensible by dividing the generative model into modules, each of which is expressed as a fixed API that can be implemented using various models. We use FAVITES to simulate HIV datasets and study the realism of the simulated datasets. We then use the simulated data to study the impact of the increased treatment efforts on epidemiological outcomes. We also study two transmission network reconstruction methods and their effectiveness in detecting fast-growing clusters. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION FAVITES is available at https://github.com/niemasd/FAVITES, and a Docker image can be found on DockerHub (https://hub.docker.com/r/niemasd/favites). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Affiliation(s)
- Niema Moshiri
- Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, UC San Diego, La Jolla, USA
| | | | | | - Siavash Mirarab
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, UC San Diego, La Jolla, USA
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22
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Abstract
Purpose of Review This review focuses on the pathophysiology of acute HIV infection (AHI) and related central nervous system (CNS) pathology, the clinical characteristics of neurologic complications of AHI, and the implications of the CNS reservoir and viral escape for HIV treatment and cure strategies. Recent Findings Recent studies in newly seroconverted populations show a high prevalence of peripheral neuropathy and cognitive dysfunction in AHI, even though these findings have been classically associated with chronic HIV infection. HIV cure strategies such as the "shock and kill" strategy are currently being studied in vitro and even in small clinical trials, though the CNS as a reservoir for latent HIV poses unique barriers to these treatment strategies. Summary Limited point of care diagnostic testing for AHI and delayed recognition of infection continue to lead to under-recognition and under-reporting of neurologic manifestations of AHI. AHI should be on the differential for a broad range of neurological conditions, from Bell's palsy, peripheral neuropathy, and aseptic meningitis, to more rare manifestations such as ADEM, AIDP, meningo-radiculitis, transverse myelitis, and brachial neuritis. Treatment for these conditions involves early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and then standard presentation-specific treatments. Current HIV cure strategies under investigation include bone marrow transplant, viral reservoir re-activation and eradication, and genome and epigenetic viral targeting. However, CNS penetration by HIV-1 occurs early on in the disease course with the establishment of the CNS viral reservoir and is an important limiting factor for these therapies.
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23
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Boyd MA, Boffito M, Castagna A, Estrada V. Rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy at HIV diagnosis: definition, process, knowledge gaps. HIV Med 2020; 20 Suppl 1:3-11. [PMID: 30724450 DOI: 10.1111/hiv.12708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/29/2018] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) as early as the day of HIV diagnosis is a strategy of increasing global interest to control the HIV epidemic and optimize the health of people living with HIV (PLWH). No detrimental effects of rapid-start ART have been identified in randomized controlled trials undertaken in low- or middle-income countries, or in cohort studies performed in high-income countries. Rapid-start ART may be a key approach in reaching the 2020 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS goal of 90% of all PLWH knowing their status, 90% of those diagnosed receiving sustained ART, and 90% of those receiving ART achieving viral suppression; it may also be important for achieving the suggested fourth "90%" goal: improving health-related quality-of-life in PLWH. Presently there is insufficient broad evidence for guidelines to recommend universal test-and-treat strategies for all people, in all settings, at HIV diagnosis; consequently, there is a pressing need to conduct high-quality studies that investigate immediate ART initiation. This article evaluates global evidence regarding rapid-start ART, including same-day start, with particular focus on the implementation of this strategy in high-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- M A Boyd
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - M Boffito
- Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, London, UK.,Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - A Castagna
- Clinic of Infectious Diseases, San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Vita-Salute University, Milan, Italy
| | - V Estrada
- Hospital Clinico San Carlos, Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain
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24
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Tinarwo P, Zewotir T, North D. Trends and Adaptive Optimal Set Points of CD4 + Count Clinical Covariates at Each Phase of the HIV Disease Progression. AIDS Res Treat 2020; 2020:1379676. [PMID: 32190387 PMCID: PMC7068150 DOI: 10.1155/2020/1379676] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2018] [Accepted: 01/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
In response to invasion by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the self-regulatory immune system attempts to restore the CD4+ count fluctuations. Consequently, many clinical covariates are bound to adapt too, but little is known about their corresponding new optimal set points. It has been reported that there exist few strongest clinical covariates of the CD4+ count. The objective of this study is to harness them for a streamlined application of multidimensional viewing lens (statistical models) to zoom into the behavioural patterns of the adaptive optimal set points. We further postulated that the optimal set points of some of the strongest covariates are possibly controlled by dietary conditions or otherwise to enhance the CD4+ count. This study investigated post-HIV infection (acute to therapy phases) records of 237 patients involving repeated measurements of 17 CD4+ count clinical covariates that were found to be the strongest. The overall trends showed either downwards, upwards, or irregular behaviour. Phase-specific trends were mostly different and unimaginable, with LDH and red blood cells producing the most complex CD4+ count behaviour. The approximate optimal set points for dietary-related covariates were total protein 60-100 g/L (acute phase), <85 g/L (early phase), <75 g/L (established phase), and >85 g/L (ART phase), whilst albumin approx. 30-50 g/L (acute), >45 g/L (early and established), and <37 g/L (ART). Sodium was desirable at approx. <45 mEq/L (acute and early), <132 mEq/L (established), and >134 mEq/L (ART). Overall, desirable approximates were albumin >42 g/L, total protein <75 g/L, and sodium <137 mEq/L. We conclude that the optimal set points of the strongest CD4+ count clinical covariates tended to drift and adapt to either new ranges or overlapped with the known reference ranges to positively influence the CD4+ cell counts. Recommendation for phase-specific CD4+ cell count influence in adaptation to HIV invasion includes monitoring of the strongest covariates related to dietary conditions (sodium, albumin, and total protein), tissue oxygenation (red blood cells and its haematocrit), and hormonal control (LDH and ALP).
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Affiliation(s)
- Partson Tinarwo
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4000, South Africa
| | - Temesgen Zewotir
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4000, South Africa
| | - Delia North
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4000, South Africa
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25
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Zang X, Krebs E, Min JE, Pandya A, Marshall BDL, Schackman BR, Behrends CN, Feaster DJ, Nosyk B. Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities. Med Decis Making 2019; 40:3-16. [PMID: 31865849 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x19889356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Zang
- BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada.,Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Emanuel Krebs
- BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Jeong E Min
- BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ankur Pandya
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Brandon D L Marshall
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Bruce R Schackman
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Czarina N Behrends
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Daniel J Feaster
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Bohdan Nosyk
- BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada.,Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
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26
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Elliott T, Sanders EJ, Doherty M, Ndung'u T, Cohen M, Patel P, Cairns G, Rutstein SE, Ananworanich J, Brown C, Fidler S. Challenges of HIV diagnosis and management in the context of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), test and start and acute HIV infection: a scoping review. J Int AIDS Soc 2019; 22:e25419. [PMID: 31850686 PMCID: PMC6918508 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2019] [Accepted: 10/22/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Knowledge of HIV status relies on accurate HIV testing, and is the first step towards access to HIV treatment and prevention programmes. Globally, HIV-status unawareness represents a significant challenge for achieving zero new HIV infections and deaths. In order to enhance knowledge of HIV status, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends a testing strategy that includes the use of HIV-specific antibody point-of-care tests (POCT). These POCTs do not detect acute HIV infection, the stage of disease when viral load is highest but HIV antibodies are undetectable. Complicating things further, in the presence of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) or post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), other currently available testing technologies, such as viral load detection for diagnosis of acute HIV infection, may yield false-negative results. In this scoping review, we evaluate the evidence and discuss alternative HIV testing algorithms that may mitigate diagnostic dilemmas in the setting of increased utilization of ART for immediate treatment and prevention of HIV infection. DISCUSSION Missed acute HIV infection prevents people living with HIV (PLHIV) from accessing early treatment, increases likelihood of onward transmission, and allows for inappropriate initiation or continuation of PrEP, which may result in HIV drug resistance. While immediate ART is recommended for all PLHIV, studies have shown that starting ART in the setting of acute HIV infection may result in a delayed or complete absence of development of HIV-specific antibodies, posing a diagnostic challenge that is particularly pertinent to resource-limited, high HIV burden settings where HIV-antibody POCTs are standard of care. Similarly, ART used as PrEP or PEP may supress HIV RNA viral load, complicating current HIV testing algorithms in resource-wealthy settings where viral detection is included. As rollout of PrEP continues, HIV testing algorithms may need to be modified. CONCLUSIONS With increasing use of PrEP and ART in acute infection we anticipate diagnostic challenges using currently available HIV testing strategies. Research and surveillance are needed to determine the most appropriate assays and optimal testing algorithms that are accurate, affordable and sustainable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tamara Elliott
- Imperial College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS TrustLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Eduard J Sanders
- Kenya Medical Research Institute‐Wellcome Trust Research ProgrammeKilifiKenya
- Nuffield Department of MedicineUniversity of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Meg Doherty
- Department of HIV and Global Hepatitis ProgrammeWHOGenevaSwitzerland
| | - Thumbi Ndung'u
- Africa Health Research InstituteDurbanSouth Africa
- HIV Pathogenesis ProgrammeDoris Duke Medical Research InstituteUniversity of KwaZulu‐NatalDurbanSouth Africa
- The Ragon Institute of Massachusetts General HospitalMassachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard UniversityCambridgeMAUSA
- Max Planck Institute for Infection BiologyBerlinGermany
| | - Myron Cohen
- Department of Internal MedicineDivision of Infectious DiseasesUNC School of MedicineUniversity of North Carolina At Chapel HillChapel HillNCUSA
| | - Pragna Patel
- Division of Global HIV and TBCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGAUSA
| | - Gus Cairns
- NAM AidsmapLondonUnited Kingdom
- PrEP in Europe InitiativeLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Sarah E Rutstein
- Department of Internal MedicineDivision of Infectious DiseasesUNC School of MedicineUniversity of North Carolina At Chapel HillChapel HillNCUSA
| | - Jintanat Ananworanich
- U.S. Military HIV Research ProgramWalter Reed Army Institute of ResearchSilver SpringMDUSA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military MedicineBethesdaMDUSA
| | - Colin Brown
- National Infection Service, Public Health EnglandLondonUnited Kingdom
- Department of InfectionRoyal Free London NHS Foundation TrustLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Sarah Fidler
- Imperial College LondonLondonUnited Kingdom
- Imperial College NIHR BRCLondonUnited Kingdom
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27
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Rucinski KB, Rutstein SE, Powers KA, Pasquale DK, Dennis AM, Phiri S, Hosseinipour MC, Kamanga G, Nsona D, Massa C, Hoffman IF, Miller WC, Pettifor AE. Sustained Sexual Behavior Change After Acute HIV Diagnosis in Malawi. Sex Transm Dis 2019; 45:741-746. [PMID: 29870501 DOI: 10.1097/olq.0000000000000873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identification of acute HIV infection (AHI) allows for important opportunities for HIV prevention through behavior change and biomedical intervention. Here, we evaluate changes in sexual risk behaviors among persons with AHI enrolled in a combined behavioral and biomedical intervention designed to reduce onward transmission of HIV. METHODS Participants were randomized to standard HIV counseling, a multisession behavioral intervention, or a multisession behavioral intervention plus antiretrovirals. Sexual behaviors were assessed periodically over 1 year. RESULTS Four weeks after diagnosis, the predicted probability of reporting multiple sexual partners decreased from 24% to 9%, and the probability of reporting unprotected sex decreased from 71% to 27%. These declines in sexual risk behaviors were sustained over follow-up irrespective of study arm. CONCLUSIONS Diagnosis of AHI alone may be sufficient to achieve immediate and sustained behavior change during this highly infectious period.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sarah E Rutstein
- Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC
| | | | | | - Ann M Dennis
- Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Irving F Hoffman
- Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC
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28
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Kostaki EG, Frampton D, Paraskevis D, Pantavou K, Ferns B, Raffle J, Grant P, Kozlakidis Z, Hadjikou A, Pavlitina E, Williams LD, Hatzakis A, Friedman SR, Nastouli E, Nikolopoulos GK. Near Full-length Genomic Sequencing and Molecular Analysis of HIV-Infected Individuals in a Network-based Intervention (TRIP) in Athens, Greece: Evidence that Transmissions Occur More Frequently from those with High HIV-RNA. Curr HIV Res 2019; 16:345-353. [PMID: 30706819 PMCID: PMC6446520 DOI: 10.2174/1570162x17666190130120757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2018] [Revised: 01/21/2019] [Accepted: 01/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Background: TRIP (Transmission Reduction Intervention Project) was a network-based, contact tracing approach to locate and link to care, mostly people who inject drugs (PWID) with recent HIV infection. Objective: We investigated whether sequences from HIV-infected participants with high viral load cluster together more frequently than what is expected by chance. Methods: Paired end reads were generated for 104 samples using Illumina MiSeq next-generation se-quencing. Results: 63 sequences belonged to previously identified local transmission networks of PWID (LTNs) of an HIV outbreak in Athens, Greece. For two HIV-RNA cut-offs (105 and 106 IU/mL), HIV transmissions were more likely between PWID with similar levels of HIV-RNA (p<0.001). 10 of the 14 sequences (71.4%) from PWID with HIV-RNA >106 IU/mL were clustered in 5 pairs. For 4 of these clusters (80%), there was in each one of them at least one sequence from a recently HIV-infected PWID. Conclusion: We showed that transmissions are more likely among PWID with high viremia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evangelia-Georgia Kostaki
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Daniel Frampton
- Department of Infection and Immunity, UCL, London, United Kingdom
| | - Dimitrios Paraskevis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | | | - Bridget Ferns
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UCLH/UCL, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jade Raffle
- Department of Infection and Immunity, UCL, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Grant
- Department of Clinical Virology, UCLH, London, United Kingdom
| | - Zisis Kozlakidis
- Division of Infection and Immunity, Faculty of Medical Sciences, UCL and Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andria Hadjikou
- Medical School, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.,European University Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Eirini Pavlitina
- Transmission Reduction Intervention Project, Athens site, Athens, Greece
| | - Leslie D Williams
- National Development and Research Institutes, New York, United States
| | - Angelos Hatzakis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Samuel R Friedman
- National Development and Research Institutes, New York, United States
| | - Eleni Nastouli
- NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UCLH/UCL, London, United Kingdom.,Department of Population, Policy and Practice, UCL GOS Institute of Child Health, London, United Kingdom
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29
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Krebs E, Enns B, Wang L, Zang X, Panagiotoglou D, Del Rio C, Dombrowski J, Feaster DJ, Golden M, Granich R, Marshall B, Mehta SH, Metsch L, Schackman BR, Strathdee SA, Nosyk B. Developing a dynamic HIV transmission model for 6 U.S. cities: An evidence synthesis. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0217559. [PMID: 31145752 PMCID: PMC6542533 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dynamic HIV transmission models can provide evidence-based guidance on optimal combination implementation strategies to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS. However, these models can be extremely data intensive, and the availability of good-quality data characterizing regional microepidemics varies substantially within and across countries. We aim to provide a comprehensive and transparent description of an evidence synthesis process and reporting framework employed to populate and calibrate a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model for six US cities. METHODS We executed a mixed-method evidence synthesis strategy to populate model parameters in six categories: (i) initial HIV-negative and HIV-infected populations; (ii) parameters used to calculate the probability of HIV transmission; (iii) screening, diagnosis, treatment and HIV disease progression; (iv) HIV prevention programs; (v) the costs of medical care; and (vi) health utility weights for each stage of HIV disease progression. We identified parameters that required city-specific data and stratification by gender, risk group and race/ethnicity a priori and sought out databases for primary analysis to augment our evidence synthesis. We ranked the quality of each parameter using context- and domain-specific criteria and verified sources and assumptions with our scientific advisory committee. FINDINGS To inform the 1,667 parameters needed to populate our model, we synthesized evidence from 59 peer-reviewed publications and 24 public health and surveillance reports and executed primary analyses using 11 data sets. Of these 1,667 parameters, 1,517 (91%) were city-specific and 150 (9%) were common for all cities. Notably, 1,074 (64%), 201 (12%) and 312 (19%) parameters corresponded to categories (i), (ii) and (iii), respectively. Parameters ranked as best- to moderate-quality evidence comprised 39% of the common parameters and ranged from 56%-60% across cities for the city-specific parameters. We identified variation in parameter values across cities as well as within cities across risk and race/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS Better integration of modelling in decision making can be achieved by systematically reporting on the evidence synthesis process that is used to populate models, and by explicitly assessing the quality of data entered into the model. The effective communication of this process can help prioritize data collection of the most informative components of local HIV prevention and care services in order to reduce decision uncertainty and strengthen model conclusions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emanuel Krebs
- Health Economic Research Unit at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Benjamin Enns
- Health Economic Research Unit at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Linwei Wang
- Health Economic Research Unit at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Xiao Zang
- Health Economic Research Unit at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Dimitra Panagiotoglou
- Health Economic Research Unit at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Carlos Del Rio
- Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory Center for AIDS Research, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
| | - Julia Dombrowski
- Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy & Infectious Disease, adjunct in Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Daniel J. Feaster
- Center for Family Studies, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Leonard M. Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States of America
| | - Matthew Golden
- Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy & Infectious Disease, adjunct in Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America
| | - Reuben Granich
- International Association of Providers of AIDS Care, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Brandon Marshall
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown School of Public Health, Providence, RI, United States of America
| | - Shruti H. Mehta
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
| | - Lisa Metsch
- Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America
| | - Bruce R. Schackman
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, United States of America
| | - Steffanie A. Strathdee
- School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
| | - Bohdan Nosyk
- Health Economic Research Unit at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
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Impact of sexual trajectories of men who have sex with men on the reduction in HIV transmission by pre-exposure prophylaxis. Epidemics 2019; 28:100337. [PMID: 31126778 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.03.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2018] [Revised: 03/08/2019] [Accepted: 03/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Changes in sexual risk behavior over the life course in men who have sex with men (MSM) can influence population-level intervention efficacy. Our objective was to investigate the impact of incorporating sexual trajectories describing long-term changes in risk levels on the reduction in HIV prevalence by pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM. Based on the Amsterdam Cohort Study data, we developed two models of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual behavior. In the first model, individuals were stratified into low, medium and high risk levels and did not change their risk levels. The second model had the same stratification but incorporated additionally three types of sexual behavior trajectories. The models assumed universal antiretroviral treatment of HIV+ MSM, and PrEP use by high risk HIV- MSM. We computed the relative reduction in HIV prevalence in both models for annual PrEP uptakes of 10% to 80% at different time points after PrEP introduction. We then investigated the impact of sexual trajectories on the effectiveness of PrEP intervention. The impact of sexual trajectories on the overall prevalence and prevalence in individuals at low, medium and high risk levels varied with PrEP uptake and time after PrEP introduction. Compared to the model without sexual trajectories, the model with trajectories predicted a higher impact of PrEP on the overall prevalence, and on the prevalence among the medium and high risk individuals. In low risk individuals, there was more reduction in prevalence during the first 15 years of PrEP intervention if sexual trajectories were not incorporated in the model. After that point, at low risk level there was more reduction in the model with trajectories. In conclusion, our study predicts that sexual trajectories increase the estimated impact of PrEP on reducing HIV prevalence when compared to a population where risk levels do not change.
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31
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Gromov D, Bulla I, Silvia Serea O, Romero-Severson EO. Numerical optimal control for HIV prevention with dynamic budget allocation. MATHEMATICAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY-A JOURNAL OF THE IMA 2019; 35:469-491. [PMID: 29106566 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqx015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2016] [Accepted: 10/04/2017] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
This article is about numerical control of HIV propagation. The contribution of the article is threefold: first, a novel model of HIV propagation is proposed; second, the methods from numerical optimal control are successfully applied to the developed model to compute optimal control profiles; finally, the computed results are applied to the real problem yielding important and practically relevant results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dmitry Gromov
- Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Control Processes, Saint Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia
| | - Ingo Bulla
- Institut für Mathematik und Informatik, Walther-Rathenau-Straße, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Oana Silvia Serea
- Univ. Perpignan Via Domitia, Laboratoire de Mathématique et Physique, Perpignan, France
| | - Ethan O Romero-Severson
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
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Bulla I, Spickanll IH, Gromov D, Romero-Severson EO. Sensitivity of joint contagiousness and susceptibility-based dynamic optimal control strategies for HIV prevention. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0204741. [PMID: 30335855 PMCID: PMC6193630 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0204741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2017] [Accepted: 09/13/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting the population-level effects of an infectious disease intervention that incorporate multiple modes of intervention is complicated by the joint non-linear dynamics of both infection transmission and the intervention itself. In this paper, we consider the sensitivity of Dynamic Optimal Control Profiles (DOCPs) for the optimal joint investment in both a contagiousness and susceptibility-based control of HIV to bio-behavioral, economic, and programmatic assumptions. The DOCP is calculated using recently developed numerical algorithms that allow controls to be represented by a set of piecewise constant functions that maintain a constant yearly budget. Our transmission model assumes multiple stages of HIV infection corresponding to acute and chronic infection and both within- and between-individual behavioral heterogeneity. We parameterize a baseline scenario from a longitudinal study of sexual behavior in MSM and consider sensitivity of the DOCPs to deviations from that baseline scenario. In the baseline scenario, the primary determinant of the dominant control were programmatic factors, regardless of budget. In sensitivity analyses, the qualitative aspects of the optimal control policy were often robust to significant deviation in assumptions regarding transmission dynamics. In addition, we found several conditions in which long-term joint investment in both interventions was optimal. Our results suggest that modeling in the service of decision support for intervention design can improve population-level effects of a limited set of economic resources. We found that economic and programmatic factors were as important as the inherent transmission dynamics in determining population-level intervention effects. Given our finding that the DOCPs were robust to alternative biological and behavioral assumptions it may be possible to identify DOCPs even when the data are not sufficient to identify a transmission model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ingo Bulla
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Ian H. Spickanll
- Division of STD Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Dmitry Gromov
- Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Control Processes, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
| | - Ethan Obie Romero-Severson
- Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Rozhnova G, Anastasaki M, Kretzschmar M. Modelling the dynamics of population viral load measures under HIV treatment as prevention. Infect Dis Model 2018; 3:160-170. [PMID: 30839936 PMCID: PMC6326229 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.09.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2017] [Revised: 09/13/2018] [Accepted: 09/14/2018] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2011 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published guidelines for the use of population viral load (PVL), community viral load (CVL) and monitored viral load (MVL), defined as the average viral load (VL) of all HIV infected individuals in a population, of all diagnosed individuals, and of all individuals on antiretroviral treatment (ART), respectively. Since then, CVL has been used to assess the effectiveness of ART on HIV transmission and as a proxy for HIV incidence. The first objective of this study was to investigate how aggregate VL measures change with the HIV epidemic phase and the drivers behind these changes using a mathematical transmission model. Secondly, we aimed to give some insight into how well CVL correlates with HIV incidence during the course of the epidemic and roll out of ART. We developed a compartmental model for disease progression and HIV transmission with disease stages that differ in viral loads for epidemiological scenarios relevant to a concentrated epidemic in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Western Europe (WE) and to a generalized epidemic in a heterosexual population in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model predicts that PVL and CVL change with the epidemic phase, while MVL stays constant. These dynamics are linked to the dynamics of infected subgroups (undiagnosed, diagnosed untreated and treated) in different disease stages (primary, chronic and AIDS). In particular, CVL decreases through all epidemic stages: before ART, since chronic population builds up faster than AIDS population and after ART, due to the build-up of treated population with low VL. The trends in CVL and incidence can be both opposing and coinciding depending on the epidemic phase. Before ART is scaled up to sufficiently high levels, incidence increases while CVL decreases. After this point, CVL is a useful indicator of changes in HIV incidence. The model predicts that during the ART scale-up HIV transmission is driven by undiagnosed and diagnosed untreated individuals, and that new infections decline due to the increase in the number of treated. Although CVL is not able to capture the contribution of undiagnosed population to HIV transmission, it declines due to the increase of people on ART too. In the scenarios described by our model, the present epidemic phase corresponds to declining trends in CVL and incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ganna Rozhnova
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Marilena Anastasaki
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Mirjam Kretzschmar
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
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Marcus U, Nöstlinger C, Rosińska M, Sherriff N, Gios L, Dias SF, Gama AF, Toskin I, Alexiev I, Naseva E, Schink SB, Mirandola M. Behavioural and demographic correlates of undiagnosed HIV infection in a MSM sample recruited in 13 European cities. BMC Infect Dis 2018; 18:368. [PMID: 30081839 PMCID: PMC6080551 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-018-3249-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2018] [Accepted: 07/10/2018] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Reducing the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection is a major goal of HIV control and prevention efforts in Europe and elsewhere. We analysed data from a large multi-city European bio-behavioural survey conducted among Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) for previously undiagnosed HIV infections, and aimed to characterise undiagnosed MSM who test less frequently than recommended. Methods Data on sexual behaviours and social characteristics of MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection from Sialon II, a bio-behavioural cross-sectional survey conducted in 13 European cities in 2013/2014, were compared with HIV-negative MSM. Based on reported HIV-testing patterns, we distinguished two subgroups: MSM with a negative HIV test result within 12 months prior to the study, i.e. undiagnosed incident infection, and HIV positive MSM with unknown onset of infection. Bivariate and multivariate associations of explanatory variables were analysed. Distinct multivariate multi-level random-intercept models were estimated for the entire group and both subgroups. Results Among 497 participants with HIV-reactive specimens, 234 (47.1%) were classified as previously diagnosed, 106 (21.3%) as incident, and 58 (11.7%) as unknown onset based on self-reported status and testing history. MSM with incident HIV infection were twice as likely (odds ratio (OR) = 2.22, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.17–4.21) to have used recreational substances during their last anal sex encounter and four times more likely (OR = 3.94, 95%CI: 2.14–7.27) not to discuss their HIV status with the last anal sex partner(s). MSM with unknown onset of HIV infection were 3.6 times more likely (OR = 3.61, 95%CI: 1.74–7.50) to report testing for a sexually transmitted infection (STI) during the last 12 months. Conclusions Approximately one third of the study participants who are living with HIV were unaware of their infection. Almost two-third (65%) of those with undiagnosed HIV appeared to have acquired the infection recently, emphasizing a need for more frequent testing. Men with the identified behavioural characteristics could be considered as primary target group for HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to avoid HIV infection. The increased odds of those with unknown onset of HIV infection to have had an STI test in the past year strongly suggests a lost opportunity to offer HIV testing. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3249-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ulrich Marcus
- Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Robert Koch-Institute, Berlin, Germany.
| | | | - Magdalena Rosińska
- Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | - Lorenzo Gios
- Infectious Diseases Section, Department of Diagnostics and Public Health, University of Verona, Verona, Italy
| | - Sonia F Dias
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Universidade, Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ana F Gama
- Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Igor Toskin
- Department of Reproductive Health and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Ivailo Alexiev
- National Centre of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, National Reference Laboratory of HIV, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Emilia Naseva
- Ministry of Health, Program "Prevention and control of HIV/AIDS", Sofia, Bulgaria
| | | | - Massimo Mirandola
- Infectious Diseases Section, Department of Diagnostics and Public Health, University of Verona, Verona, Italy
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Janes H, Corey L, Ramjee G, Carpp LN, Lombard C, Cohen MS, Gilbert PB, Gray GE. Weighing the Evidence of Efficacy of Oral PrEP for HIV Prevention in Women in Southern Africa. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses 2018; 34:645-656. [PMID: 29732896 PMCID: PMC6080090 DOI: 10.1089/aid.2018.0031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
As oral tenofovir-based regimens for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are adopted as standard of care for HIV prevention, their utilization in clinical trials among women in southern Africa will require an accurate estimate of oral PrEP efficacy in this population. This information is critical for women in choosing this prevention strategy, and in public health policy making. Estimates of the efficacy of oral PrEP regimens containing tenofovir have varied widely across trials that enrolled women, with some studies reporting high efficacy and others reporting no efficacy. Although poor adherence is strongly associated with lack of efficacy, other factors, such as mode of transmission (sexual vs. parenteral), predominant HIV subtype (C vs. non-C), intensity of exposure, and percentage of stable serodiscordant couples, may also contribute to the variation in efficacy estimates. In this article, we evaluate the evidence for PrEP efficacy in women and propose potential explanations for the observed differences in efficacy among studies. Our review emphasizes the need to continue to refine estimates of efficacy and effectiveness of tenofovir-based oral PrEP so as to best develop the next generation of HIV prevention tools, and to inform public policies directed toward HIV prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Gita Ramjee
- HIV Prevention Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | - Carl Lombard
- Biostatistics Unit, Medical Research Council of South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Myron S. Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Glenda E. Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Office of the President, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
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Ayoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Omori R, Abu-Raddad LJ. Hepatitis C virus infection spontaneous clearance: Has it been underestimated? Int J Infect Dis 2018; 75:60-66. [PMID: 30031139 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2018.07.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2018] [Revised: 07/11/2018] [Accepted: 07/11/2018] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Hepatitis C virus (HCV) clearance rate (fclearance) is defined as the proportion of infected persons who will spontaneously clear their infection after acute infection. We aimed to estimate fclearance using a novel approach that avoids limitations in existing estimates, and to clarify the link between fclearance and HCV viremic rate-the latter being the proportion of RNA positivity among those antibody positive. METHODS A mathematical model was developed to describe HCV transmission. fclearance was estimated by fitting the model to probability-based and nationally representative population-based data for Egypt (Egypt 2008 and Egypt 2015) and USA (NHANES A and NHANES B). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS fclearance was estimated at 39.9% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 34.3%-46.4%) and 33.5% (95% UI: 29.2%-38.3%) for Egypt 2008 and Egypt 2015 data, respectively; and at 29.6% (23.0%-37.1%) and 39.9% (31.2%-51.0%) for NHANES A and NHANES B data, respectively. fclearance was found related to HCV viremic rate through (approximately) the formula fclearance=1.16 (1-HCV viremic rate). HCV viremic rate was higher with higher risk of HCV exposure. Robustness of results was demonstrated in uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION One-third of HCV-infected persons clear their infection spontaneously, higher than earlier estimates-the immune-system capacity to clear HCV infection may have been underestimated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Houssein H Ayoub
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, USA; Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
| | - Hiam Chemaitelly
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar
| | - Ryosuke Omori
- Division of Bioinformatics, Research Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; JST, PRESTO, 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan
| | - Laith J Abu-Raddad
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine - Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation - Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, USA.
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Gilbert M, Taylor D, Michelow W, Grace D, Balshaw R, Kwag M, Lim E, Fischer B, Patrick D, Ogilvie G, Coombs D, Steinberg M, Rekart M. Sustained Reduction in Sexual Behavior that May Pose a Risk of HIV Transmission Following Diagnosis During Early HIV Infection Among Gay Men in Vancouver, British Columbia. AIDS Behav 2018; 22:2068-2078. [PMID: 28168375 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-017-1702-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Increased viral load during early HIV infection (EHI) disproportionately contributes to HIV transmission among gay men. We examined changes in sexual behavior that may pose a risk of HIV transmission (condomless anal sex (AS) with a serodiscordant or unknown status partner, CAS-SDU) in a cohort of 25 gay men newly diagnosed during EHI who provided information on 241 sexual partners at six time points following diagnosis. Twenty-two (88%) participants reported ≥1 AS partner (median time to first AS 80 days) and 12 (55%) reported ≥1 partnership involving CAS-SDU (median 116 days). In hierarchical generalized linear mixed effects models, AS was significantly less likely in all time periods following diagnosis and more likely with serodiscordant partners. The likelihood of CAS-SDU decreased three months after diagnosis and was higher in recently versus acutely infected participants. Most men in our study abstained from sex immediately after diagnosis with sustained longer-term reduction in CAS-SDU, confirming the importance of timely diagnosis during EHI.
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Bellan SE, Champredon D, Dushoff J, Meyers LA. Couple serostatus patterns in sub-Saharan Africa illuminate the relative roles of transmission rates and sexual network characteristics in HIV epidemiology. Sci Rep 2018; 8:6675. [PMID: 29703941 PMCID: PMC5923291 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24249-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2017] [Accepted: 03/19/2018] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
HIV prevalence has surpassed 30% in some African countries while peaking at less than 1% in others. The extent to which this variation is driven by biological factors influencing the HIV transmission rate or by variation in sexual network characteristics remains widely debated. Here, we leverage couple serostatus patterns to address this question. HIV prevalence is strongly correlated with couple serostatus patterns across the continent; in particular, high prevalence countries tend to have a lower ratio of serodiscordancy to concordant positivity. To investigate the drivers of this continental pattern, we fit an HIV transmission model to Demographic and Health Survey data from 45,041 cohabiting couples in 25 countries. In doing so, we estimated country-specific HIV transmission rates and sexual network characteristics reflective of pre-couple and extra-couple sexual contact patterns. We found that variation in the transmission rate could parsimoniously explain between-country variation in both couple serostatus patterns and prevalence. In contrast, between-country variation in pre-couple or extra-couple sexual contact rates could not explain the observed patterns. Sensitivity analyses suggest that future work should examine the robustness of this result to between-country variation in how heterogeneous infection risk is within a country, or to assortativity, i.e. the extent to which individuals at higher risk are likely to partner with each other.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven E Bellan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.
- Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.
| | - David Champredon
- Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jonathan Dushoff
- Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lauren Ancel Meyers
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America
- The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America
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Goodreau SM, Hamilton DT, Jenness SM, Sullivan PS, Valencia RK, Wang LY, Dunville RL, Barrios LC, Rosenberg ES. Targeting Human Immunodeficiency Virus Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis to Adolescent Sexual Minority Males in Higher Prevalence Areas of the United States: A Modeling Study. J Adolesc Health 2018; 62:311-319. [PMID: 29248392 PMCID: PMC5818296 DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2017.09.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Revised: 08/31/2017] [Accepted: 09/21/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective and safe intervention to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in men who have sex with men; current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines indicate its use among high-risk adults. Adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM) also have significant HIV risk, but implementation strategies are likely to differ for this population. We aimed to estimate impact and efficiency of PrEP for ASMM in higher prevalence US settings, using a variety of implementation strategies and assumptions about coverage, adherence, and background prevalence. METHODS We develop a stochastic, dynamic, network-based model, parametrized using numerous ASMM behavioral and clinical data sources. We simulate 10 years with and without PrEP, comparing percent of incident infections averted (impact) and number of person-years on PrEP per infection averted (efficiency). RESULTS Our main scenario (PrEP for 16- to 18-year-old ASMM, initiating PrEP 6 months after first anal intercourse, 40% coverage, adherence profiles from the ATN 113 trial; 2.9% background HIV prevalence among ASMM) prevents 27.8% of infections, with 38 person-years on PrEP per infection averted. Expanding implementation to cover younger ages or earlier initiation has small effects on impact and efficiency. Targeting highest risk ASMM increases efficiency, but requires querying sexual histories. Across levels examined, coverage and adherence do not have major impacts on efficiency, whereas background prevalence does. CONCLUSIONS PrEP can have a large impact on HIV incidence among ASMM in the United States, especially in settings with high prevalence. However, willingness of, and support for, providers will be central to achieving the coverage needed to make this a success.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven M Goodreau
- Department of Anthropology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
| | - Deven T Hamilton
- Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | - Patrick S Sullivan
- Department of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia; Department of Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Li Yan Wang
- Division of Adolescent and School Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Richard L Dunville
- Division of Adolescent and School Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Lisa C Barrios
- Division of Adolescent and School Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Eli S Rosenberg
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University at Albany School of Public Health, State University of New York, Rensselaer, New York
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Kumi Smith M, Jewell BL, Hallett TB, Cohen MS. Treatment of HIV for the Prevention of Transmission in Discordant Couples and at the Population Level. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2018; 1075:125-162. [PMID: 30030792 DOI: 10.1007/978-981-13-0484-2_6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
The scientific breakthrough proving that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can halt heterosexual HIV transmission came in the form of a landmark clinical trial conducted among serodiscordant couples. Study findings immediately informed global recommendations for the use of treatment as prevention in serodiscordant couples. The extent to which these findings are generalizable to other key populations or to groups exposed to HIV through nonsexual transmission routes (i.e., anal intercourse or unsafe injection of drugs) has since driven a large body of research. This review explores the history of HIV research in serodiscordant couples, the implications for management of couples, subsequent research on treatment as prevention in other key populations, and challenges in community implementation of these strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Kumi Smith
- University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
| | | | | | - Myron S Cohen
- University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Theys K, Libin P, Pineda-Peña AC, Nowé A, Vandamme AM, Abecasis AB. The impact of HIV-1 within-host evolution on transmission dynamics. Curr Opin Virol 2017; 28:92-101. [PMID: 29275182 DOI: 10.1016/j.coviro.2017.12.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2017] [Revised: 11/23/2017] [Accepted: 12/03/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The adaptive potential of HIV-1 is a vital mechanism to evade host immune responses and antiviral treatment. However, high evolutionary rates during persistent infection can impair transmission efficiency and alter disease progression in the new host, resulting in a delicate trade-off between within-host virulence and between-host infectiousness. This trade-off is visible in the disparity in evolutionary rates at within-host and between-host levels, and preferential transmission of ancestral donor viruses. Understanding the impact of within-host evolution for epidemiological studies is essential for the design of preventive and therapeutic measures. Herein, we review recent theoretical and experimental work that generated new insights into the complex link between within-host evolution and between-host fitness, revealing temporal and selective processes underlying the structure and dynamics of HIV-1 transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristof Theys
- KU Leuven, University of Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium.
| | - Pieter Libin
- KU Leuven, University of Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium; Articial Intelligence Lab, Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Andrea-Clemencia Pineda-Peña
- Molecular Biology and Immunology Department, Fundacion Instituto de Immunologia de Colombia (FIDIC), Basic Sciences Department, Universidad del Rosario, Bogota, Colombia; Global Health and Tropical Medicine, GHTM, Institute for Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, IHMT, University Nova de Lisboa, UNL, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ann Nowé
- Articial Intelligence Lab, Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Anne-Mieke Vandamme
- KU Leuven, University of Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Ana B Abecasis
- KU Leuven, University of Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium; Global Health and Tropical Medicine, GHTM, Institute for Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, IHMT, University Nova de Lisboa, UNL, Lisbon, Portugal
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Ackley SF, Mayeda ER, Worden L, Enanoria WTA, Glymour MM, Porco TC. Compartmental Model Diagrams as Causal Representations in Relation to DAGs. EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS 2017; 6:20060007. [PMID: 30555771 PMCID: PMC6294476 DOI: 10.1515/em-2016-0007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Compartmental model diagrams have been used for nearly a century to depict causal relationships in infectious disease epidemiology. Causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) have been used more broadly in epidemiology since the 1990s to guide analyses of a variety of public health problems. Using an example from chronic disease epidemiology, the effect of type 2 diabetes on dementia incidence, we illustrate how compartmental model diagrams can represent the same concepts as causal DAGs, including causation, mediation, confounding, and collider bias. We show how to use compartmental model diagrams to explicitly depict interaction and feedback cycles. While DAGs imply a set of conditional independencies, they do not define conditional distributions parametrically. Compartmental model diagrams parametrically (or semiparametrically) describe state changes based on known biological processes or mechanisms. Compartmental model diagrams are part of a long-term tradition of causal thinking in epidemiology and can parametrically express the same concepts as DAGs, as well as explicitly depict feedback cycles and interactions. As causal inference efforts in epidemiology increasingly draw on simulations and quantitative sensitivity analyses, compartmental model diagrams may be of use to a wider audience. Recognizing simple links between these two common approaches to representing causal processes may facilitate communication between researchers from different traditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- S F Ackley
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - E R Mayeda
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - L Worden
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - W T A Enanoria
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - M M Glymour
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - T C Porco
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Viral kinetics in untreated versus treated acute HIV infection in prospective cohort studies in Thailand. J Int AIDS Soc 2017; 20:21652. [PMID: 28691436 PMCID: PMC5515031 DOI: 10.7448/ias.20.1.21652] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction: The extent of viral replication during acute HIV infection (AHI) influences HIV disease progression. However, information comparing viral load (VL) kinetics with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART) in AHI is limited. The knowledge gained could inform preventive strategies aimed at reducing VL during AHI and therapeutic strategies to alter the viral kinetics that may enhance the likelihood of achieving HIV remission. Methods: The analysis utilized VL data captured during the first year of HIV infection from two studies in Thailand: the RV217 study (untreated AHI, 30 participants and 412 visits) and the RV254 study (treated AHI, 235 participants and 2803 visits). Fiebig stages were I/II (HIV RNA+, HIV IgM−) and Fiebig III/IV (HIV IgM+, Western blot-/indeterminate). Data were modelled utilizing spline effects within a linear mixed model, with a random intercept and slope to allow for between-subject variability and adjustment for the differences in variability between studies. The number of knots in the quadratic spline basis functions was determined by comparing models with differing numbers of knots via the Akaike Information Criterion. Models were fit using PROC GLIMMIX in SAS v9.3. Results: At enrolment, there were 24 Fiebig I/II and 6 Fiebig III/IV individuals in the untreated group and 137 Fiebig I/II and 98 Fiebig III/IV individuals in the treated group. Overall, the median age was 27.5 years old, most were male (89%), and CRF01_AE was the most common HIV clade (76%). By day 12 (4 days after ART in RV254), the untreated group had a 2.7-fold higher predicted mean VL level compared to those treated (predicted log VL 6.19 for RV217 and 5.76 for RV254, p = 0.05). These differences increased to 135-fold by day 30 (predicted log VL 4.89 for RV217 and 2.76 for RV254) and 1148-fold by day 120 (predicted log VL 4.68 for RV217 and 1.63 for RV254) (p < 0.0001 for both) until both curves were similarly flat at about day 150 (p = 0.17 between days 150 and 160). The VL trajectories were significantly different between Fiebig I/II and Fiebig III/IV participants when comparing the two groups and within the treated group (p < 0.001 for both). Conclusions: Initiating ART in AHI dramatically changed the trajectory of VL very early in the course of infection that could have implications for reducing transmission potential and enhancing responses to future HIV remission strategies. There is an urgency of initiating ART when acute infection is identified. New and inexpensive strategies to engage and test individuals at high risk for HIV as well as immediate treatment access will be needed to improve the treatment of acute infection globally. Clinical Trial Number: NCT00796146 and NCT00796263
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Turk T, Bachmann N, Kadelka C, Böni J, Yerly S, Aubert V, Klimkait T, Battegay M, Bernasconi E, Calmy A, Cavassini M, Furrer H, Hoffmann M, Günthard HF, Kouyos RD. Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis. eLife 2017; 6:28721. [PMID: 28895527 PMCID: PMC5650480 DOI: 10.7554/elife.28721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2017] [Accepted: 08/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data. In epidemiology, the “basic reproductive number” describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way. Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently. These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection – for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teja Turk
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Nadine Bachmann
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Claus Kadelka
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jürg Böni
- Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Sabine Yerly
- Laboratory of Virology, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Vincent Aubert
- Division of Immunology and Allergy, University Hospital Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Klimkait
- Molecular Virology, Department of Biomedicine - Petersplatz, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Manuel Battegay
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Enos Bernasconi
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Regional Hospital Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland
| | - Alexandra Calmy
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Matthias Cavassini
- Service of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Hansjakob Furrer
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Matthias Hoffmann
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Huldrych F Günthard
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Roger D Kouyos
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Institute of Medical Virology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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McCreesh N, Andrianakis I, Nsubuga RN, Strong M, Vernon I, McKinley TJ, Oakley JE, Goldstein M, Hayes R, White RG. Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study. BMC Infect Dis 2017; 17:557. [PMID: 28793872 PMCID: PMC5550990 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2664-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2017] [Accepted: 08/01/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Background UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at different stages of the care pathway can help focus intervention services at populations where they may have the greatest effect. We investigate this using Uganda as a case study. Methods An individual-based HIV/ART model was fitted using history matching. 100 model fits were generated to account for uncertainties in sexual behaviour, HIV epidemiology, and ART coverage up to 2015 in Uganda. A number of different ART scale-up intervention scenarios were simulated between 2016 and 2030. The incidence and proportion of transmission over time from people with primary infection, post-primary ART-naïve infection, and people currently or previously on ART was calculated. Results In all scenarios, the proportion of transmission by ART-naïve people decreases, from 70% (61%–79%) in 2015 to between 23% (15%–40%) and 47% (35%–61%) in 2030. The proportion of transmission by people on ART increases from 7.8% (3.5%–13%) to between 14% (7.0%–24%) and 38% (21%–55%). The proportion of transmission by ART dropouts increases from 22% (15%–33%) to between 31% (23%–43%) and 56% (43%–70%). Conclusions People who are currently or previously on ART are likely to play an increasingly large role in transmission as ART coverage increases in Uganda. Improving retention on ART, and ensuring that people on ART remain virally suppressed, will be key in reducing HIV incidence in Uganda.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicky McCreesh
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
| | - Ioannis Andrianakis
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | | | - Mark Strong
- School of Health and Related Research, The University of Sheffield, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK
| | - Ian Vernon
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, Stockton Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Trevelyan J McKinley
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Jeremy E Oakley
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, The Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield, S3 7RH, UK
| | - Michael Goldstein
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, Stockton Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Richard Hayes
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Richard G White
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
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Akullian A, Bershteyn A, Klein D, Vandormael A, Bärnighausen T, Tanser F. Sexual partnership age pairings and risk of HIV acquisition in rural South Africa. AIDS 2017; 31:1755-1764. [PMID: 28590328 PMCID: PMC5508850 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000001553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2017] [Revised: 05/16/2017] [Accepted: 05/23/2017] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To quantify the contribution of specific sexual partner age groups to the risk of HIV acquisition in men and women in a hyperendemic region of South Africa. DESIGN We conducted a population-based cohort study among women (15-49 years of age) and men (15-55 years of age) between 2004 and 2015 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS Generalized additive models were used to estimate smoothed HIV incidence rates across partnership age pairings in men and women. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk of HIV acquisition by partner age group. RESULTS A total of 882 HIV seroconversions were observed in 15 935 person-years for women, incidence rate = 5.5 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.2-5.9] and 270 HIV seroconversions were observed in 9372 person-years for men, incidence rate = 2.9 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.6-3.2). HIV incidence was highest among 15-24-year-old women reporting partnerships with 30-34-year-old men, incidence rate = 9.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 7.2-13.1). Risk of HIV acquisition in women was associated with male partners aged 25-29 years (adjusted hazard ratio; aHR = 1.44, 95% CI, 1.02-2.04) and 30-34 years (aHR = 1.50, 95% CI, 1.08-2.09) relative to male partners aged 35 and above. Risk of HIV acquisition in men was associated with 25-29-year-old (aHR = 1.72, 95% CI, 1.02-2.90) and 30-34-year-old women (aHR = 2.12, 95% CI, 1.03-4.39) compared to partnerships with women aged 15-19 years. CONCLUSION Age of sexual partner is a major risk factor for HIV acquisition in both men and women, independent of one's own age. Partner age pairings play a critical role in driving the cycle of HIV transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Akullian
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Good Fund, Bellevue, Washington, USA
| | - Anna Bershteyn
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Good Fund, Bellevue, Washington, USA
| | - Daniel Klein
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Global Good Fund, Bellevue, Washington, USA
| | - Alain Vandormael
- Africa Health Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
| | - Till Bärnighausen
- Africa Health Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
- Institute for Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Frank Tanser
- Department of Infection and Population Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK
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Rutstein SE, Ananworanich J, Fidler S, Johnson C, Sanders EJ, Sued O, Saez-Cirion A, Pilcher CD, Fraser C, Cohen MS, Vitoria M, Doherty M, Tucker JD. Clinical and public health implications of acute and early HIV detection and treatment: a scoping review. J Int AIDS Soc 2017; 20:21579. [PMID: 28691435 PMCID: PMC5515019 DOI: 10.7448/ias.20.1.21579] [Citation(s) in RCA: 84] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2016] [Accepted: 05/29/2017] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The unchanged global HIV incidence may be related to ignoring acute HIV infection (AHI). This scoping review examines diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications of identifying and treating persons with AHI. METHODS We searched PubMed, in addition to hand-review of key journals identifying research pertaining to AHI detection and treatment. We focused on the relative contribution of AHI to transmission and the diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications. We prioritized research from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published in the last fifteen years. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Extensive AHI research and limited routine AHI detection and treatment have begun in LMIC. Diagnostic challenges include ease-of-use, suitability for application and distribution in LMIC, and throughput for high-volume testing. Risk score algorithms have been used in LMIC to screen for AHI among individuals with behavioural and clinical characteristics more often associated with AHI. However, algorithms have not been implemented outside research settings. From a clinical perspective, there are substantial immunological and virological benefits to identifying and treating persons with AHI - evading the irreversible damage to host immune systems and seeding of viral reservoirs that occurs during untreated acute infection. The therapeutic benefits require rapid initiation of antiretrovirals, a logistical challenge in the absence of point-of-care testing. From a public health perspective, AHI diagnosis and treatment is critical to: decrease transmission via viral load reduction and behavioural interventions; improve pre-exposure prophylaxis outcomes by avoiding treatment initiation for HIV-seronegative persons with AHI; and, enhance partner services via notification for persons recently exposed or likely transmitting. CONCLUSIONS There are undeniable clinical and public health benefits to AHI detection and treatment, but also substantial diagnostic and logistical barriers to implementation and scale-up. Effective early ART initiation may be critical for HIV eradication efforts, but widespread use in LMIC requires simple and accurate diagnostic tools. Implementation research is critical to facilitate sustainable integration of AHI detection and treatment into existing health systems and will be essential for prospective evaluation of testing algorithms, point-of-care diagnostics, and efficacious and effective first-line regimens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah E. Rutstein
- Department of Health Policy and Management, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Jintanat Ananworanich
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sarah Fidler
- Department of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Cheryl Johnson
- HIV Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Eduard J. Sanders
- Department of Global Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Omar Sued
- Fundación Huésped, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Asier Saez-Cirion
- Institut Pasteur, HIV Inflammation and Persistance Unit, Paris, France
| | | | - Christophe Fraser
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Myron S. Cohen
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Marco Vitoria
- HIV Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Meg Doherty
- HIV Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Joseph D. Tucker
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- UNC Project-China, Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Shen M, Xiao Y, Rong L, Meyers LA, Bellan SE. Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:20170525. [PMID: 28659449 PMCID: PMC5489726 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2017] [Accepted: 05/26/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of drug-sensitive HIV transmission but may increase the transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We used a mathematical model to estimate the long-term population-level benefits of ART and determine the scenarios under which earlier ART (treatment at 1 year post-infection, on average) could decrease simultaneously both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence (new infections). We constructed an infection-age-structured mathematical model that tracked the transmission rates over the course of infection and modelled the patients' life expectancy as a function of ART initiation timing. We fitted this model to the annual AIDS incidence and death data directly, and to resistance data and demographic data indirectly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Using counterfactual scenarios, we assessed the impact on total and drug-resistant HIV incidence of ART initiation timing, frequency of acquired drug resistance, and second-line drug effectiveness (defined as the combination of resistance monitoring, biomedical drug efficacy and adherence). Earlier ART initiation could decrease the number of both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence when second-line drug effectiveness is sufficiently high (greater than 80%), but increase the proportion of new infections that are drug resistant. Thus, resistance may paradoxically appear to be increasing while actually decreasing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingwang Shen
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China
- Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
| | - Yanni Xiao
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China
| | - Libin Rong
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Oakland University, Rochester, MI 48309, USA
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Lauren Ancel Meyers
- Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
- The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA
| | - Steven E Bellan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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The Effect of Same-Day Observed Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Viral Load and Treatment Outcomes in a US Public Health Setting. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2017; 74:44-51. [PMID: 27434707 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000001134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 167] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is typically begun weeks after HIV diagnosis. We assessed the acceptability, feasibility, safety, and efficacy of initiating ART on the same day as diagnosis. METHODS We studied a clinic-based cohort consisting of consecutive patients who were referred with new HIV diagnosis between June 2013 and December 2014. A subset of patients with acute or recent infection (<6 months) or CD4 <200 were managed according to a "RAPID" care initiation protocol. An intensive, same-day appointment included social needs assessment; medical provider evaluation; and a first ART dose offered after laboratories were drawn. Patient acceptance of ART, drug toxicities, drug resistance, and time to viral suppression outcomes were compared between RAPID participants and contemporaneous patients (who were not offered the program), and with an historical cohort. RESULTS Among 86 patients, 39 were eligible and managed on the RAPID protocol. Thirty-seven (94.9%) of 39 in RAPID began ART within 24 hours. Minor toxicity with the initial regimen occurred in 2 (5.1%) of intervention patients versus none in the nonintervention group. Loss to follow-up was similar in intervention (10.3%) and nonintervention patients (14.9%) during the study. Time to virologic suppression (<200 copies HIV RNA/mL) was significantly faster (median 1.8 months) among intervention-managed patients when compared with patients treated in the same clinic under prior recommendations for universal ART (4.3 months; P = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Treatment for HIV infection can be started on the day of diagnosis without impacting the safety or acceptability of ART. Same-day ART may shorten the time to virologic suppression.
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Performance of the Bio-Rad Geenius HIV1/2 Supplemental Assay in Detecting "Recent" HIV Infection and Calculating Population Incidence. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2017; 73:581-588. [PMID: 27509247 PMCID: PMC5110377 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000001146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Objective: HIV seroconversion biomarkers are being used in cross-sectional studies for HIV incidence estimation. Bio-Rad Geenius HIV-1/2 Supplemental Assay is an immunochromatographic single-use assay that measures antibodies (Ab) against multiple HIV-1/2 antigens. The objective of this study was to determine whether the Geenius assay could additionally be used for recency estimation. Design: This assay was developed for HIV-1/2 confirmation; however, quantitative data acquired give information on increasing concentration and diversity of antibody responses over time during seroconversion. A quantitative threshold of recent HIV infection was proposed to determine “recent” or “nonrecent” HIV infection; performance using this cutoff was evaluated. Methods: We tested 2500 highly characterized specimens from research subjects in the United States, Brazil, and Africa with well-defined durations of HIV infection. Regression and frequency estimation were used to estimate assay properties relevant to HIV incidence measurement: mean duration of recent infection (MDRI), false-recent rate, and assay reproducibility and robustness. Results: Using the manufacturer's proposed cutoff index of 1.5 to identify “recent” infection, the assay has an estimated false-recent rate of 4.1% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.0) and MDRI of 179 days (155 to 201) in specimens from treatment-naive subjects, presenting performance challenges similar to other incidence assays. Lower index cutoffs associated with lower MDRI gave a lower rate of false-recent results. Conclusions: These data suggest that with additional interpretive analysis of the band intensities using an algorithm and cutoff, the Geenius HIV-1/2 Supplemental Assay can be used to identify recent HIV infection in addition to confirming the presence of HIV-1 and HIV-2 antibodies.
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