Synchrony of sylvatic dengue isolations: a multi-host, multi-vector SIR model of dengue virus transmission in Senegal

Broadscale spatial synchrony in a West Nile virus mosquito vector across multiple timescales

Insects often exhibit irruptive population dynamics determined by environmental conditions. We examine if populations of the Culex tarsalis mosquito, a West Nile virus (WNV) vector, fluctuate synchronously over broad spatial extents and multiple timescales and whether climate drives synchrony in Cx. tarsalis, especially at annual timescales, due to the synchronous influence of temperature, precipitation, and/or humidity. We leveraged mosquito collections across 9 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites distributed in the interior West and Great Plains region USA over a 45-month period, and associated gridMET climate data. We utilized wavelet phasor mean fields and wavelet linear models to quantify spatial synchrony for mosquitoes and climate and to calculate the importance of climate in explaining Cx. tarsalis synchrony. We also tested whether the strength of spatial synchrony may vary directionally across years. We found significant annual synchrony in Cx. tarsalis, and short-term synchrony during a single period in 2018. Mean minimum temperature was a significant predictor of annual Cx. tarsalis spatial synchrony, and we found a marginally significant decrease in annual Cx. tarsalis synchrony. Significant Cx. tarsalis synchrony during 2018 coincided with an anomalous increase in precipitation. This work provides a valuable step toward understanding broadscale synchrony in a WNV vector.

Ecological predictors of mosquito population and arbovirus transmission synchrony estimates

Quantifying synchrony in species population fluctuations and determining its driving factors can inform multiple aspects of ecological and epidemiological research and policy decisions. We examined seasonal mosquito and arbovirus surveillance data collected in Connecticut, United States from 2001 to 2020 to quantify spatial relationships in 19 mosquito species and 7 arboviruses timeseries accounting for environmental factors such as climate and land cover characteristics. We determined that mosquito collections, on average, were significantly correlated up to 10 km though highly variable among the examined species. Few arboviruses displayed any synchrony and significant maximum correlated distances never exceeded 5 km. After accounting for distance, mixed effects models showed that mosquito or arbovirus identity explained more variance in synchrony estimates than climate or land cover factors. Correlated mosquito collections up to 10-20 km suggest that mosquito control operations for nuisance and disease vectors alike must expand treatment zones to regional scales for operations to have population-level impacts. Species identity matters as well, and some mosquito species will require much larger treatment zones than others. The much shorter correlated detection distances for arboviruses reinforce the notion that focal-level processes drive vector-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and risk of spillover into human populations.

How surface and fomite infection affect contagion dynamics: a study with self-propelled particles

Self-propelled particles have been a tool of choice for many studies for understanding spatial interaction of people and propagation of infectious diseases. Other than the direct contagion process through face-to-face contacts with an infected agent, in some diseases, like COVID-19, the disease can spread by indirect ways, through contaminated object surfaces and puff-clouds created by the infected individual. However, this dual spreading process and the impact of these indirect infections in the entire dynamics are not properly explored. In this work, we consider epidemic spreading in an artificial society, with realistic parameters and movements of people, along with the possibilities of indirect exposure through contaminated surfaces and puff-clouds. This particular simulation based infectious disease dynamics is associated with the movements of some self-propelled free agents executing random motion which is investigated in conjunction with the rules of a realistic contagion process. With mathematical formulation and extensive computational studies, we have accommodated the indirect infection possibilities into the dynamics by incorporating an infectious 'tail' with the infected individuals. Analytical expressions of survival distance and infection probability of individuals have been explicitly calculated and reported. Results of precise and comparative simulation study have revealed the seriousness of indirect infections in connection with several dynamical parameters. Using this framework, interpretation of multiple waves in local as well as global scenarios have been established for COVID-19 infection statistics. Furthermore, the importance of indirect infections are also pointed out through data fitting, showing that ignoring this component might cause a misinterpretation of the dynamical parameters, like, imposed restrictions.

Computational Model on COVID-19 Pandemic Using Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Since March, 2020, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been designated as a pandemic by World Health Organization. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting nationwide interventions, like lockdown, containment and quarantine, restrictions on travel, cancelling social events and extensive testing. To understand the effects of these measures on the control of the epidemic in a data-driven manner, we propose a probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) based epidemiological model. The transitions associated with the model is driven by data available on chronology, symptoms, pathogenesis and transmissivity of the virus. By arguing that the lattice-based model captures the features of the dynamics along with the existing fluctuations, we perform rigorous computational analyses of the model to take into account of the spatial dynamics of social distancing measures imposed on the people. Considering the probabilistic behavioral aspects associated with mitigation strategies, we study the model considering factors like population density and testing efficiency. Using the model, we focus on the variability of epidemic dynamics data for different countries, and point out the reasons behind these contrasting observations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model COVID-19 spread using PCA that gives us both spatial and temporal variations of the infection spread with the insight about the contributions of different infection parameters.

Epidemiological Model for COVID-19 in China

Background.The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 first broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China, and then spread quickly worldwide.Objective. This study aimed to dissect the spread and end of the epidemic in China with a precise mathematical model.Methods. Various data were obtained from the official websites of the Chinese National Health from January 20 to July 8, 2020. The Chinese study participants were divided into three groups, namely, Hubei (including Wuhan), nationwide without Hubei, and Henan. The basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Rt), and gender and age ratio of COVID-19 were calculated, and the epidemic’s predicted curves or fitting curves with peak time and end time were plotted with SIR model. These predicted curves were compared with actual scatter plots.Results. The fitting curve of the Hubei group showed a parabola with a peak on February 18, 2020, with 51,673 cases and the gradual decrease of infected patients, which culminates with a downhill after May 2020. During early outbreak, the highest recorded R0 was 6.13, which declined gradually forming a S-type curve, and it approached zero in early May. Similar to Hubei group, the fitting curve of the nationwide without Hubei group also showed a parabola, recording a peak of 9145 cases on February 10, 2020. At first, its R0 was as high as 2.35 but declined to zero in early April. The epidemic in the Henan group also reached its peak on February 10, 2020, and ended in early April as well. Conclusion. The epidemic development of COVID-19 in China followed the shape of parabolic curves. This model provides insights into how to strategize for epidemic control.

A data-driven understanding of COVID-19 dynamics using sequential genetic algorithm based probabilistic cellular automata

COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection spreading is still growing steadily, causing thousands of deaths and serious socio-economic crisis. Thus, the identification of the major factors of this infection spreading dynamics is becoming crucial to minimize impact and lifetime of COVID-19 and any future pandemic. In this work, a probabilistic cellular automata based method has been employed to model the infection dynamics for a significant number of different countries. This study proposes that for an accurate data-driven modelling of this infection spread, cellular automata provides an excellent platform, with a sequential genetic algorithm for efficiently estimating the parameters of the dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to understand and interpret COVID-19 data using optimized cellular automata, through genetic algorithm. It has been demonstrated that the proposed methodology can be flexible and robust at the same time, and can be used to model the daily active cases, total number of infected people and total death cases through systematic parameter estimation. Elaborate analyses for COVID-19 statistics of forty countries from different continents have been performed, with markedly divergent time evolution of the infection spreading because of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The substantial predictive power of this model has been established with conclusions on the key players in this pandemic dynamics.

Ecological processes underlying the emergence of novel enzootic cycles: Arboviruses in the neotropics as a case study

Pathogens originating from wildlife (zoonoses) pose a significant public health burden, comprising the majority of emerging infectious diseases. Efforts to control and prevent zoonotic disease have traditionally focused on animal-to-human transmission, or "spillover." However, in the modern era, increasing international mobility and commerce facilitate the spread of infected humans, nonhuman animals (hereafter animals), and their products worldwide, thereby increasing the risk that zoonoses will be introduced to new geographic areas. Imported zoonoses can potentially "spill back" to infect local wildlife-a danger magnified by urbanization and other anthropogenic pressures that increase contacts between human and wildlife populations. In this way, humans can function as vectors, dispersing zoonoses from their ancestral enzootic systems to establish reservoirs elsewhere in novel animal host populations. Once established, these enzootic cycles are largely unassailable by standard control measures and have the potential to feed human epidemics. Understanding when and why translocated zoonoses establish novel enzootic cycles requires disentangling ecologically complex and stochastic interactions between the zoonosis, the human population, and the natural ecosystem. In this Review, we address this challenge by delineating potential ecological mechanisms affecting each stage of enzootic establishment-wildlife exposure, enzootic infection, and persistence-applying existing ecological concepts from epidemiology, invasion biology, and population ecology. We ground our discussion in the neotropics, where four arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of zoonotic origin-yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses-have separately been introduced into the human population. This paper is a step towards developing a framework for predicting and preventing novel enzootic cycles in the face of zoonotic translocations.

Long-Term Protection of Rhesus Macaques from Zika Virus Reinfection

By the end of the 2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak, it is estimated that there were up to 100 million infections in the Americas. In approximately one in seven infants born to mothers infected during pregnancy, ZIKV has been linked to microcephaly, developmental delays, or other congenital disorders collectively known as congenital Zika syndrome, as well as Guillain-Barré syndrome, in ZIKV-infected adults. It is a global health priority to develop a vaccine against ZIKV that elicits long-lasting immunity; however, the durability of immunity to ZIKV is unknown. Previous studies in mice and nonhuman primates have been crucial in vaccine development but have not defined the duration of immunity generated by ZIKV infection. In this study, we rechallenged five rhesus macaques with ZIKV 22 to 28 months after a primary ZIKV infection. We show that primary ZIKV infection generates high titers of neutralizing antibodies that protect from detectable plasma viremia following rechallenge and persist for at least 22 to 28 months. While additional longitudinal studies are necessary with longer time frames, this study establishes a new experimentally defined minimal length of protective ZIKV immunity.IMPORTANCE ZIKV emerged as a vector-borne pathogen capable of causing illness in infected adults and congenital birth defects in infants born to mothers infected during pregnancy. Despite the decrease in ZIKV cases since the 2015-2016 epidemic, questions concerning the prevalence and longevity of protective immunity have left vulnerable communities fearful that they may become the center of next ZIKV outbreak. Although preexisting herd immunity in regions of past outbreaks may dampen the potential for future outbreaks to occur, we currently do not know the longevity of protective immunity to ZIKV after a person becomes infected. Here, we establish a new experimentally defined minimal length of protective ZIKV immunity. We show that five rhesus macaques initially infected with ZIKV 22 to 28 months prior to rechallenge elicit a durable immune response that protected from detectable plasma viremia. This study establishes a new minimal length of protective immunity.

Patterns of mosquito and arbovirus community composition and ecological indexes of arboviral risk in the northeast United States

BACKGROUND

In the northeast United States (U.S.), mosquitoes transmit a number of arboviruses, including eastern equine encephalitis, Jamestown Canyon, and West Nile that pose an annual threat to human and animal health. Local transmission of each arbovirus may be driven by the involvement of multiple mosquito species; however, the specificity of these vector-virus associations has not been fully quantified.

METHODOLOGY

We used long-term surveillance data consistently collected over 18 years to evaluate mosquito and arbovirus community composition in the State of Connecticut (CT) based on land cover classifications and mosquito species-specific natural histories using community ecology approaches available in the R package VEGAN. We then used binomial-error generalized linear mixed effects models to quantify species-specific trends in arbovirus detections.

PRIMARY RESULTS

The composition of mosquito communities throughout CT varied more among sites than among years, with variation in mosquito community composition among sites explained mostly by a forested-to-developed-land-cover gradient. Arboviral communities varied equally among sites and years, and only developed and forested wetland land cover classifications were associated with the composition of arbovirus detections among sites. Overall, the avian host arboviruses, mainly West Nile and eastern equine encephalitis, displayed the most specific associations among mosquito species and sites, while in contrast, the mammalian host arboviruses (including Cache Valley, Jamestown Canyon, and Potosi) associated with a more diverse mix of mosquito species and were widely distributed throughout CT.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that avian arboviruses act as vector specialists infecting a few key mosquito species that associate with discrete habitats, while mammalian arboviruses are largely vector generalists infecting a wide diversity of mosquito species and habitats in the region. These distinctions have important implications for the design and implementation of mosquito and arbovirus surveillance programs as well as mosquito control efforts.

Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

We review and contrast the evidence for an effect of amplifying host herd immunity on circulation and human exposure to arboviruses. Herd immunity of short-lived West Nile virus avian amplifying hosts appears to play a limited role in levels of enzootic circulation and spillover infections of humans, which are not amplifiers. In contrast, herd immunity of nonhuman primate hosts for enzootic Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses is much stronger and appears to regulate to a large extent the periodicity of sylvatic amplification in Africa. Following the recent Zika and chikungunya pandemics, human herd immunity in the Americas quickly rose to ∼50% in many regions, although seroprevalence remains patchy. Modeling from decades of chikungunya circulation in Asia suggests that this level of herd immunity will suppress for many years major chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the Americas, followed by smaller outbreaks as herd immunity cycles with a periodicity of up to several decades.

The Global Expansion of Dengue: How Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes Enabled the First Pandemic Arbovirus

Dengue is an emerging viral disease principally transmitted by the Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquito. It is one of the fastest-growing global infectious diseases, with 100-400 million new infections a year, and is now entrenched in a growing number of tropical megacities. Behind this rapid rise is the simple adaptation of Ae. aegypti to a new entomological niche carved out by human habitation. This review describes the expansion of dengue and explores how key changes in the ecology of Ae. aegypti allowed it to become a successful invasive species and highly efficient disease vector. We argue that characterizing geographic heterogeneity in mosquito bionomics will be a key research priority that will enable us to better understand future dengue risk and design control strategies to reverse its global spread.

Sylvatic cycles of arboviruses in non-human primates

Arboviruses infecting people primarily exist in urban transmission cycles involving urban mosquitoes in densely populated tropical regions. For dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever viruses, sylvatic (forest) transmission cycles also exist in some regions and involve non-human primates and forest-dwelling mosquitoes. Here we review the investigation methods and available data on sylvatic cycles involving non-human primates and dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever viruses in Africa, dengue viruses in Asia and yellow fever virus in the Americas. We also present current putative data that Mayaro, o'nyong'nyong, Oropouche, Spondweni and Lumbo viruses exist in sylvatic cycles.

Lack of Evidence of Sylvatic Transmission of Dengue Viruses in the Amazon Rainforest Near Iquitos, Peru

Dengue viruses (DENV) are currently responsible for more human morbidity and mortality than any other known arbovirus, and all four DENV are known to exist in sylvatic cycles that might allow these viruses to persist if the urban (Aedes aegypti) cycle could be controlled. To determine whether DENV were being maintained in a sylvatic cycle in a forested area about 14 km southwest of Iquitos, Peru, a city in which all 4 serotypes of DENV circulate, we placed 20 DENV seronegative Aotus monkeys in cages either in the canopy or near ground level for a total of 125.6 months. Despite capturing >66,000 mosquitoes in traps that collected some of the mosquitoes attracted to these monkeys, blood samples obtained once a month from each animal were tested and found to be negative by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for IgM and IgG antibodies to dengue, yellow fever, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Oropouche, and Mayaro viruses. Although all four DENV serotypes were endemic in nearby Iquitos, the findings of this study did not support a DENV sylvatic maintenance and transmission cycle in a selected area of the Amazon rainforest in northeastern Peru.

Biodiversity Pattern of Mosquitoes in Southeastern Senegal, Epidemiological Implication in Arbovirus and Malaria Transmission

The composition, density, diversity, and temporal distribution of mosquito species and the influence of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on these data were investigated in 50 sites across five land cover classes (forest, savannah, barren, village, and agriculture) in southeastern Senegal. Mosquitoes were collected monthly in each site between June 2009 and March 2011, with three people collecting mosquitoes landing on their legs for one to four consecutive days. In total, 81,219 specimens, belonging to 60 species and 7 genera, were collected. The most abundant species were Aedes furcifer (Edwards) (Diptera: Culicidae) (20.7%), Ae. vittatus (Bigot) (19.5%), Ae. dalzieli (Theobald) (14.7%), and Ae. luteocephalus (Newstead) (13.7%). Ae. dalzieli, Ae. furcifer, Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus, Ae. taylori Edwards, Ae. africanus (Theobald), Ae. minutus (Theobald), Anopheles coustani Laveran, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Mansonia uniformis (Theobald) comprised ≥10% of the total collection, in at least one land cover. The lowest species richness and Brillouin diversity index (HB = 1.55) were observed in the forest-canopy. The urban-indoor fauna showed the highest dissimilarity with other land covers and was most similar to the urban-outdoor fauna following Jaccard and Morisita index. Mosquito abundance peaked in June and October 2009 and July and October 2010. The highest species density was recorded in October. The maximum temperature was correlated positively with mean temperature and negatively with rainfall and relative humidity. Rainfall showed a positive correlation with mosquito abundance and species density. These data will be useful for understanding the transmission of arboviruses and human malaria in the region.

Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal

Background

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) originated in a sylvatic cycle of transmission between non-human animal hosts and vector mosquitoes in the forests of Africa. Subsequently the virus jumped out of this ancestral cycle into a human-endemic transmission cycle vectored by anthropophilic mosquitoes. Sylvatic CHIKV cycles persist in Africa and continue to spill over into humans, creating the potential for new CHIKV strains to enter human-endemic transmission. To mitigate such spillover, it is first necessary to delineate the distributions of the sylvatic mosquito vectors of CHIKV, to identify the environmental factors that shape these distributions, and to determine the association of mosquito presence with key drivers of virus spillover, including mosquito and CHIKV abundance. We therefore modeled the distribution of seven CHIKV mosquito vectors over two sequential rainy seasons in Kédougou, Senegal using Maxent.

Methods

Mosquito data were collected in fifty sites distributed in five land cover classes across the study area. Environmental data representing land cover, topographic, and climatic factors were included in the models. Models were compared and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. The correlation of model outputs with abundance of individual mosquito species as well as CHIKV-positive mosquito pools was tested.

Results

Fourteen models were produced and evaluated; the environmental variables most strongly associated with mosquito distributions were distance to large patches of forest, landscape patch size, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Seven models were positively correlated with mosquito abundance and one (Aedes taylori) was consistently, positively correlated with CHIKV-positive mosquito pools. Eight models predicted high relative occurrence rates of mosquitoes near the villages of Tenkoto and Ngary, the areas with the highest frequency of CHIKV-positive mosquito pools.

Conclusions

Of the environmental factors considered here, landscape fragmentation and configuration had the strongest influence on mosquito distributions. Of the mosquito species modeled, the distribution of Ae. taylori correlated most strongly with abundance of CHIKV, suggesting that presence of this species will be a useful predictor of sylvatic CHIKV presence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2832-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Role of monkeys in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in Senegal

Arboviruses spillover into humans either as a one-step jump from a reservoir host species into humans or as a two-step jump from the reservoir to an amplification host species and thence to humans. Little is known about arbovirus transmission dynamics in reservoir and amplification hosts. Here we elucidate the role of monkeys in the sylvatic, enzootic cycle of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the region around Kédougou, Senegal. Over 3 years, 737 monkeys were captured, aged using anthropometry and dentition, and tested for exposure to CHIKV by detection of neutralizing antibodies. Infant monkeys were positive for CHIKV even when the virus was not detected in a concurrent survey of mosquitoes and when population immunity was too high for monkeys alone to support continuous transmission. We conclude that monkeys in this region serve as amplification hosts of CHIKV. Additional efforts are needed to identify other hosts capable of supporting continuous circulation.

Asymmetric percolation drives a double transition in sexual contact networks

Zika virus (ZIKV) exhibits unique transmission dynamics in that it is concurrently spread by a mosquito vector and through sexual contact. Due to the highly asymmetric durations of infectiousness between males and females-it is estimated that males are infectious for periods up to 10 times longer than females-we show that this sexual component of ZIKV transmission behaves akin to an asymmetric percolation process on the network of sexual contacts. We exactly solve the properties of this asymmetric percolation on random sexual contact networks and show that this process exhibits two epidemic transitions corresponding to a core-periphery structure. This structure is not present in the underlying contact networks, which are not distinguishable from random networks, and emerges because of the asymmetric percolation. We provide an exact analytical description of this double transition and discuss the implications of our results in the context of ZIKV epidemics. Most importantly, our study suggests a bias in our current ZIKV surveillance, because the community most at risk is also one of the least likely to get tested.

Regular biennial cycles in epidemics caused by parametric resonance

The interaction between nonlinearity and seasonal forcing in childhood infectious diseases often leads to multiyear cycles with large amplitude. Regular biennial cycles in particular were observed in measles reports throughout the world. The objective of this paper is to understand the mechanism of such biennial cycles, especially the conditions under which the large amplitude biennial oscillation might appear. It is proposed that such biennial cycles are caused by parametric resonance, which might occur when varying the parameter at a frequency close to twice the natural frequency of the system. The analysis is carried out by solving an SIR model semi-analytically using method of multiple scales (MMS). This analysis shows how parametric resonance occurs due to the interaction between nonlinearity and periodic forcing. Using the MMS solution, the boundary between the resonance region and the non-resonance region in the parameter space is obtained. The effects of different parameters on the triggering of parametric resonance are studied, such as transmission rate, recovery rate, birth rate and amplitude of seasonality. The effects of stochasticity on the onset of parametric resonance are also studied.

Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas

Zika virus (ZIKV) originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts and arboreal mosquitoes in tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses a threat to human health, especially to pregnant women and their infants. Here we examine the risk that ZIKV will establish a sylvatic cycle in the Americas, focusing on Brazil. We review the natural history of sylvatic ZIKV and present a mathematical dynamic transmission model to assess the probability of establishment of a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle in non-human primates and/or other mammals and arboreal mosquito vectors in Brazil. Brazil is home to multiple species of primates and mosquitoes potentially capable of ZIKV transmission, though direct assessment of host competence (ability to mount viremia sufficient to infect a feeding mosquito) and vector competence (ability to become infected with ZIKV and disseminate and transmit upon subsequent feedings) of New World species is lacking. Modeling reveals a high probability of establishment of sylvatic ZIKV across a large range of biologically plausible parameters. Probability of establishment is dependent on host and vector population sizes, host birthrates, and ZIKV force of infection. Research on the host competence of New World monkeys or other small mammals to ZIKV, on vector competence of New World Aedes, Sabethes, and Haemagogus mosquitoes for ZIKV, and on the geographic range of potential New World hosts and vectors is urgently needed. A sylvatic cycle of ZIKV would make future elimination efforts in the Americas practically impossible, and paints a dire picture for the epidemiology of ZIKV and our ability to end the ongoing outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome.

The tortoise or the hare? Impacts of within-host dynamics on transmission success of arthropod-borne viruses

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are maintained in a cycle of alternating transmission between vertebrate hosts and arthropod vectors. Arboviruses possess RNA genomes capable of rapid diversification and adaptation, and the between-host trade-offs inherent to host alternation impose well-documented constraints on arbovirus evolution. Here, we investigate the less well-studied within-host trade-offs that shape arbovirus replication dynamics and transmission. Arboviruses generally establish lifelong infection in vectors but transient infection of variable magnitude (i.e. peak virus concentration) and duration in vertebrate hosts. In the majority of experimental infections of vertebrate hosts, both the magnitude and duration of arbovirus replication depended upon the dose of virus administered, with increasing dose resulting in greater magnitude but shorter duration of viraemia. This pattern suggests that the vertebrate immune response imposes a trade-off between the height and breadth of the virus replication curve. To investigate the impact of this trade-off on transmission, we used a simple modelling approach to contrast the effect of 'tortoise' (low magnitude, long duration viraemia) and 'hare' (high magnitude, short duration viraemia) arbovirus replication strategies on transmission. This model revealed that, counter to previous theory, arboviruses that adopt a tortoise strategy have higher rates of persistence in both host and vector populations.

Impact of climate and mosquito vector abundance on sylvatic arbovirus circulation dynamics in Senegal

Sylvatic arboviruses have been isolated in Senegal over the last 50 years. The ecological drivers of the pattern and frequency of virus infection in these species are largely unknown. We used time series analysis and Bayesian hierarchical count modeling on a long-term arbovirus dataset to test associations between mosquito abundance, weather variables, and the frequency of isolation of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We found little correlation between mosquito abundance and viral isolations. Rainfall was a negative predictor of dengue virus (DENV) isolation but a positive predictor of Zika virus isolation. Temperature was a positive predictor of yellow fever virus (YFV) isolations but a negative predictor of DENV isolations. We found slight interference between viruses, with DENV negatively associated with concurrent YFV isolation and YFV negatively associated with concurrent isolation of chikungunya virus. These findings begin to characterize some of the ecological associations of sylvatic arboviruses with each other and climate and mosquito abundance.

Infection dynamics of sylvatic dengue virus in a natural primate host, the African Green Monkey

The four serotypes of mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4) that circulate in humans each emerged from an enzootic, sylvatic cycle in non-human primates. Herein, we present the first study of sylvatic DENV infection dynamics in a primate. Three African green monkeys were inoculated with 10(5) plaque-forming units (pfu) DENV-2 strain PM33974 from the sylvatic cycle, and one African green monkey was inoculated with 10(5) pfu DENV-2 strain New Guinea C from the human cycle. All four monkeys seroconverted (more than fourfold rise in 80% plaque reduction neutralization titer [PRNT80]) against the strain of DENV with which they were inoculated; only one (33%) of three monkeys infected with sylvatic DENV showed a neutralizing antibody response against human-endemic DENV. Virus was detected in two of three monkeys inoculated with sylvatic DENV at low titer (≤ 1.3 log10pfu/mL) and brief duration (≤ 2 days). Clinical signs included rash and elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels.

The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential

Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R₀ and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Viral kinetics of primary dengue virus infection in non-human primates: a systematic review and individual pooled analysis

Viremia kinetics directly influence the clinical course and transmission dynamics of DENV, but many aspects of viral dynamics remain unknown. Non-human primates (NHP) have been used as a model system for DENV infection for decades. Here, we identify papers with experimentally-infected NHP and estimate the time to- and duration of viremia as well as estimate associations between these and serotype, inoculating dose, viremia assay, and species of NHP. We estimate the time to viremia in rhesus macaques to range from 2.63 to 3.32 days for DENV-2 and -1 and the duration to range from 3.13 to 5.13 days for DENV-4 and -2. We find no differences between non-human primates for time to viremia or duration, and a significant negative relationship between inoculating dose and duration of viremia. These results aid in understanding the transmission dynamics of sylvatic DENV non-human primates, an issue of growing importance as dengue vaccines become available.

Fever versus fever: the role of host and vector susceptibility and interspecific competition in shaping the current and future distributions of the sylvatic cycles of dengue virus and yellow fever virus

Two different species of flaviviruses, dengue virus (DENV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), that originated in sylvatic cycles maintained in non-human primates and forest-dwelling mosquitoes have emerged repeatedly into sustained human-to-human transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Sylvatic cycles of both viruses remain active, and where the two viruses overlap in West Africa they utilize similar suites of monkeys and Aedes mosquitoes. These extensive similarities render the differences in the biogeography and epidemiology of the two viruses all the more striking. First, the sylvatic cycle of YFV originated in Africa and was introduced into the New World, probably as a result of the slave trade, but is absent in Asia; in contrast, sylvatic DENV likely originated in Asia and has spread to Africa but not to the New World. Second, while sylvatic YFV can emerge into extensive urban outbreaks in humans, these invariably die out, whereas four different types of DENV have established human transmission cycles that are ecologically and evolutionarily distinct from their sylvatic ancestors. Finally, transmission of YFV among humans has been documented only in Africa and the Americas, whereas DENV is transmitted among humans across most of the range of competent Aedes vectors, which in the last decade has included every continent save Antarctica. This review summarizes current understanding of sylvatic transmission cycles of YFV and DENV, considers possible explanations for their disjunct distributions, and speculates on the potential consequences of future establishment of a sylvatic cycle of DENV in the Americas.