What factors might have led to the emergence of Ebola in West Africa?

Digital Mass Hysteria during Pandemic? A Study of Twitter Communication Patterns in the US during the Stages of COVID-19 Vaccination

This study examined the public's sentiments about vaccines by analyzing Twitter data during the CDC's vaccination management planning stage in the United States. Sentiment scores were assigned to each tweet using a sentiment dictionary and the sentiment changes were analyzed over 52 weeks from November 2020 to November 2021. An interrupted time series model was used to analyze the difference in sentiment, which revealed that there was a shift. Initially, overall sentiments were negative but became positive as the stage of general vaccine supply approached. However, negative sentiments sharply rose when the vaccine supply transitioned to the phase of universalization. The results identified two dominant strategic action fields for vaccines providing polarized messages on Twitter and the negative trend was strong for most of the period. The findings highlight the importance of managing strategic action fields on social networks to prevent mass hysteria during vaccine policy implementation. This study stresses the significance of effectively managing strategic action fields on social media platforms to prevent mass hysteria while implementing vaccine policies.

Natural History of Nonhuman Primates After Oral Exposure to Ebola Virus Variant Makona

BACKGROUND

The primary route of infection by Ebola virus (EBOV) is through contact of mucosal surfaces. Few studies have explored infection of nonhuman primates (NHPs) via the oral mucosa, which is a probable portal of natural infection in humans.

METHODS

To further characterize the pathogenesis of EBOV infection via the oral exposure route, we challenged cohorts of cynomolgus monkeys with low doses of EBOV variant Makona.

RESULTS

Infection with 100 or 50 PFU of EBOV Makona via the oral route resulted in 50% and 83% lethality, respectively. Animals that progressed to fatal disease exhibited lymphopenia, marked coagulopathy, high viral loads, and increased levels of serum markers of inflammation and hepatic/renal injury. Survival in these cohorts was associated with milder fluctuations in leukocyte populations, lack of coagulopathy, and reduced or absent serum markers of inflammation and/or hepatic/renal function. Surprisingly, 2 surviving animals from the 100- and 50-PFU cohorts developed transient low-level viremia in the absence of other clinical signs of disease. Conversely, all animals in the 10 PFU cohort remained disease free and survived to the study end point.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations highlight the susceptibility of NHPs, and by extension, likely humans, to relatively low doses of EBOV via the oral route.

Enhanced EPIRISK tool for rapid epidemic risk analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to create an enhanced EPIRISK tool in order to correctly predict COVID-19 severity in various countries. The original EPIRISK tool was developed in 2018 to predict the epidemic risk and prioritise response. The tool was validated against nine historical outbreaks prior to 2020. However, it rated many high-income countries that had poor performance during the COVID-19 pandemic as having lower epidemic risk.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was designed to modify EPIRISK by reparameterizing risk factors and validate the enhanced tool against different outbreaks, including COVID-19.

METHODS

We identified three factors that could be indicators of poor performance witnessed in some high-income countries: leadership, culture and universal health coverage. By adding these parameters to EPIRISK, we created a series of models for the calibration and validation. These were tested against non-COVID outbreaks in nine countries and COVID-19 outbreaks in seven countries to identify the best-fit model. The COVID-19 severity was determined by the global incidence and mortality, which were equally divided into four levels.

RESULTS

The enhanced EPIRISK tool has 17 parameters, including seven disease-related and 10 country-related factors, with an algorithm developed for risk level classification. It correctly predicted the risk levels of COVID-19 for all seven countries and all nine historical outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

The enhanced EPIRSIK is a multifactorial tool that can be widely used in global infectious disease outbreaks for rapid epidemic risk analysis, assisting first responders, government and public health professionals with early epidemic preparedness and prioritising response to infectious disease outbreaks.

Inequitable access to Ebola vaccines and the resurgence of Ebola in Africa: A state of arts review

The Ebola virus, a member of the filoviridae family of viruses, is responsible for causing Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) with a case fatality rate as high as 50%. The largest EVD outbreak was recorded in West Africa from March 2013 to June 2016, leading to over 28 000 cases and 11 000 deaths. It affected several countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Until then, EVD was predominantly reported in remote villages in central and west Africa close to tropical rainforests. Human mobility, behavioral and cultural norms, the use of bushmeat, burial customs, preference for traditional remedies and treatments, and resistance to health interventions are just a few of the social factors that considerably aid and amplify the risk of transmission. The scale and persistence of recent ebola outbreaks, as well as the risk of widespread global transmission and its ability for bioterrorism, have led to a rethinking of public health strategies to curb the disease, such as the expedition of Ebola vaccine production. However, as vaccine production lags in the subcontinent, among other challenges, the risk of another ebola outbreak is likely and feared by public health authorities in the region. This review describes the inequality of vaccine production in Africa and the resurgence of EVD, emphasizing the significance of health equality.

The impact of threshold decision mechanisms of collective behavior on disease spread

Humans are a hyper-social species, which greatly impacts the spread of infectious diseases. How do social dynamics impact epidemiology and what are the implications for public health policy? Here, we develop a model of disease transmission that incorporates social dynamics and a behavior that reduces the spread of disease, a voluntary nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI). We use a "tipping-point" dynamic, previously used in the sociological literature, where individuals adopt a behavior given a sufficient prevalence of the behavior in the population. The thresholds at which individuals adopt the NPI behavior are modulated by the perceived risk of infection, i.e., the disease prevalence and transmission rate, costs to adopt the NPI behavior, and the behavior of others. Social conformity creates a type of "stickiness" whereby individuals are resistant to changing their behavior due to the population's inertia. In this model, we observe a nonmonotonicity in the attack rate as a function of various biological and social parameters such as the transmission rate, efficacy of the NPI, costs of the NPI, weight of social consequences of shirking the social norm, and the degree of heterogeneity in the population. We also observe that the attack rate can be highly sensitive to these parameters due to abrupt shifts in the collective behavior of the population. These results highlight the complex interplay between the dynamics of epidemics and norm-driven collective behaviors.

Points of entry dynamics: understanding the cross-border threats for Ebola virus disease and COVID-19 in Ghana using a logic model approach

Background

The influx of people across the national borders of Ghana has been of interest and concern in the public health and national security community in recent times due to the low capacity for the prevention and management of epidemics and other public health risks. Although the international health regulations (IHR) stipulate core public health capacities for designated border facilities such as international airports, seaports, and ground crossings, contextual factors that influence the attainment of effective public health measures and response capabilities remain understudied.

Objective

This study aims to assess the relationship between contextual factors and COVID-19 procurement to help strengthen infrastructure resources for points of entry (PoE) public health surveillance functions, thereby eliminating gaps in the design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of pandemic-related interventions in Ghana.

Methods

This study employed a mixed-methods design, where quantitative variables were examined for relationships and effect size interactions using multiple linear regression techniques and the wild bootstrap technique. Country-level data was sourced from multiple publicly available sources using the social-ecological framework, logic model, and IHR capacity monitoring framework. The qualitative portion included triangulation with an expert panel to determine areas of convergence and divergence.

Results

The most general findings were that laboratory capacity and Kotoka International Airport testing center positively predicted COVID-19 procurement, and public health response and airline boarding rule negatively predicted COVID-19 procurement.

Conclusion

Contextual understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic and Ebola epidemic is vital for strengthening PoE mitigation measures and preventing disease importation.

A sequential test for assessing the effectiveness of response strategies during an emerging epidemic

In epidemiology, the fatality rate is an important indicator of disease severity and has been used to evaluate the effects of new treatments. During an emerging epidemic with limited resources, monitoring the changes in fatality rate can also provide signals on the evaluation of government policies and healthcare quality, which helps to guide public health decision. A statistical test is developed in this paper to detect changes in fatality rate over time during the course of an emerging infectious disease. A major advantage of the proposed test is that it only requires the regularly reported numbers of deaths and recoveries, which meets the actual need as detailed surveillance data are hard to collect during the course of an emerging epidemic especially the deadly infectious diseases with large magnitude. In addition, with the sequential testing procedure, the effective measures can be detected at the earliest possible time to provide guidance to policymakers for swift action. Simulation studies showed that the proposed test performs well and is sensitive in picking up changes in the fatality rate. The test is applied to the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone for illustration.

After action review of the response to an outbreak of Lassa fever in Sierra Leone, 2019: Best practices and lessons learnt

Background

In November 2019, an outbreak of Lassa Fever occurred among health workers in a non-endemic district in Sierra Leone. The outbreak resulted in five cases, including two that were exported to the Netherlands. The outbreak tested multiple technical capacities in the International Health Regulations (2005) in a real-life setting. As such, an after action review (AAR) was undertaken as recommended by World Health Organization. We report on the findings of the AAR including best practices and lessons learnt.

Methods

A two stage review process was employed. The first stage involved national pillar level reviews for each technical pillar and one review of the district level response. The second stage brought together all pillars, including participants from the national and sub-national level as well as health sector partners. National guidelines were used as references during the deliberations. A standardized template was used to report on the key findings on what happened, what was supposed to happen, what went well and lessons learnt.

Results

This was a hospital associated outbreak that likely occurred due to a breach in infection prevention and control (IPC) practices resulting in three health workers being infected during a surgical operation. There was a delay in detecting the outbreak on time due to low index of suspicion among clinicians. Once detected, the outbreak response contained the outbreak within one incubation period. Areas that worked well included coordination, contact tracing, active case search and ring IPC. Notable gaps included delays in accessing local emergency funding and late distribution of IPC and laboratory supplies.

Conclusions

The incident management system worked optimally to contain this outbreak. The core technical gaps identified in surveillance, IPC and delay in deployment of resources should be addressed through systemic changes that can mitigate future outbreaks.

The International Health Regulations (IHR) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework was developed by the World Health Organization to provide strategies to monitor and assess how countries are building their core public health capacities under IHR (2005). The framework has four components: annual reporting on IHR capacities (mandatory), Joint External Evaluation, simulation exercises and After Action Review (AAR). In November 2019, an outbreak of Lassa Fever occurred among health workers in a non-endemic district in Sierra Leone. The outbreak resulted in five cases, including two deaths and two exported cases to the Netherlands. The outbreak tested multiple technical capacities in the IHR (2005) in a real-life setting. We therefore conducted an AAR to assess how well the country responded to the outbreak. This hospital associated outbreak likely occurred due to a breach in infection prevention and control (IPC) practices. The response launched after detection of the outbreak successfully contained the outbreak within one incubation period. Areas that worked well included coordination, contact tracing, active case search and ring IPC. Areas that needed improvement were clinicians’ knowledge on Lassa Fever, delays in accessing local emergency funding and late distribution of IPC and laboratory supplies.

Emerging and Re-Emerging Viral Infections: An Indian Perspective

Emerging and re-emerging viral infections pose a constant threat, especially in healthcare settings. Viral infections can be thought of as an ecological system, like a forest or a pond, with different species competing for resources. Pandemics tend to occur when there is a disruption to this ecosystem, such as introducing a strain of virus into humans or animals that they have no immunity against. Around 60% of human infectious diseases and 75% of emerging infections are zoonotic, with two-thirds originating in wildlife. There is an ongoing risk of viral diseases as the human population continues to grow and the rate of urbanization increases. The emergence and re-emergence of viral diseases are influenced by a variety of virologic and environmental factors. These factors can be roughly categorized as affecting humans, the environment and/or ecology, and viruses. The spread of zoonotic diseases among humans can be prevented by reducing the transmission risk associated with wildlife and exotic pets through education, legislation, and behavioral change programs that target individuals at risk for exposure.

Drivers of African Filovirus (Ebola and Marburg) Outbreaks

Outbreaks of African filoviruses often have high mortality, including more than 11,000 deaths among 28,562 cases during the West Africa Ebola outbreak of 2014-2016. Numerous studies have investigated the factors that contributed to individual filovirus outbreaks, but there has been little quantitative synthesis of this work. In addition, the ways in which the typical causes of filovirus outbreaks differ from other zoonoses remain poorly described. In this study, we quantify factors associated with 45 outbreaks of African filoviruses (ebolaviruses and Marburg virus) using a rubric of 48 candidate causal drivers. For filovirus outbreaks, we reviewed >700 peer-reviewed and gray literature sources and developed a list of the factors reported to contribute to each outbreak (i.e., a "driver profile" for each outbreak). We compare and contrast the profiles of filovirus outbreaks to 200 background outbreaks, randomly selected from a global database of 4463 outbreaks of bacterial and viral zoonotic diseases. We also test whether the quantitative patterns that we observed were robust to the influences of six covariates, country-level factors such as gross domestic product, population density, and latitude that have been shown to bias global outbreak data. We find that, regardless of whether covariates are included or excluded from models, the driver profile of filovirus outbreaks differs from that of background outbreaks. Socioeconomic factors such as trade and travel, wild game consumption, failures of medical procedures, and deficiencies in human health infrastructure were more frequently reported in filovirus outbreaks than in the comparison group. Based on our results, we also present a review of drivers reported in at least 10% of filovirus outbreaks, with examples of each provided.

Insights into the Monkeypox virus: making of another pandemic within the pandemic?

Just when the world started to adapt to the 'new normal' amid the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, the world is witnessing the wrath of another viral disease, the monkeypox virus (MPXV). The virus is endemic to African countries, where several outbreaks have been reported in the past. However, the present cases have been reported in non-endemic countries worldwide. Although MPX is considered to be a self-limiting disease, recent reports on its incidence have proved otherwise. The 2022 multi-country MPX outbreak has drawn the attention of global surveillance organizations and epidemiologists to trace its origin, however, there are existing gaps regarding the animal reservoirs, biological implications, and management of MPX. In view of the recent events, the World Health Organization (WHO) has also declared the ongoing MPX outbreak a global health emergency. Hence, the geographically expanding MPXV poses a significant threat to human health and public safety. In this review, the latest insights into the biology of MPXV have been provided by discussing its biological implications on human health, changing epidemiological footprint, and presently available intervention strategies. This review also sheds light on the existing lacunas and possible reasons that may have been responsible for the ongoing MPX outbreak. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Disturbance Ecology Meets Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) Epidemiology: A Before-and-After Study on the Association between Forest Clearfelling and bTB Herd Risk in Cattle Herds

Disturbance ecology refers to the study of discrete processes that disrupt the structure or dynamics of an ecosystem. Such processes can, therefore, affect wildlife species ecology, including those that are important pathogen hosts. We report on an observational before-and-after study on the association between forest clearfelling and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) herd risk in cattle herds, an episystem where badgers (Meles meles) are the primary wildlife spillover host. The study design compared herd bTB breakdown risk for a period of 1 year prior to and after exposure to clearfelling across Ireland at sites cut in 2015–2017. The percent of herds positive rose from 3.47% prior to clearfelling to 4.08% after exposure. After controlling for confounders (e.g., herd size, herd type), we found that cattle herds significantly increased their odds of experiencing a bTB breakdown by 1.2-times (95%CIs: 1.07–1.36) up to 1 year after a clearfell risk period. Disturbance ecology of wildlife reservoirs is an understudied area with regards to shared endemic pathogens. Epidemiological observational studies are the first step in building an evidence base to assess the impact of such disturbance events; however, such studies are limited in inferring the mechanism for any changes in risk observed. The current cohort study suggested an association between clearfelling and bTB risk, which we speculate could relate to wildlife disturbance affecting pathogen spillback to cattle, though the study design precludes causal inference. Further studies are required. However, ultimately, integration of epidemiology with wildlife ecology will be important for understanding the underlying mechanisms involved, and to derive suitable effective management proposals, if required.

Patterns and conversational structure of knowledge sharing on Ebola virus disease among healthcare practitioners: Observations from a pilot study

This pilot study was designed to determine the conversational structure on Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), pattern of knowledge sharing and knowledge sharing behaviour of healthcare practitioners (HCP) on Medscape online network. The study was guided by Conversation Theory, and deployed a retrospective document/content analysis research design. Ninety-two comments from healthcare practitioners including 16 EVD newsposts out of 37 EVD news were randomly extracted from the network between 2014 and 2018. Extracted data were analysed using NVivo and Microsoft Excel applications. An EVD knowledge taxonomy was developed from the content mapping of EVD topics posted on the network. Results from the pilot study revealed that news on EVD were mostly on EVD outbreak management at the peak period of EVD outbreak in 2014. Also, the HCPs mostly engaged in knowledge sharing on issues relating to EVD risk. Findings revealed that the entire (37) newsposts were of interest to HCPs and they responded to 16 newsposts. There were three active and influential HCPs on the network. The novelty of this study stems from its focus on conversation patterns of HCP on online knowledge sharing using the variables of Conversation theory to examine their knowledge sharing behaviours. The outcome of the study could serve as a model for other studies on other trending viral diseases such as Coronavirus, Lassa Fever, Monkey pox, etc. This study thus recommends replicate analysis in the main study with a larger data set with further findings using network analysis and other statistical tools to examine the conversational structure on EVD and pattern of knowledge sharing among the HCPs.

Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how structural social inequities fundamentally shape disease dynamics. Here, the authors provide a set of practical and methodological recommendations to address socioeconomic vulnerabilities in epidemic models.

Modelling the Role of Human Behaviour in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Transmission Dynamics

The role of human behaviour in the dynamics of infectious diseases cannot be underestimated. A clear understanding of how human behaviour influences the spread of infectious diseases is critical in establishing and designing control measures. To study the role that human behaviour plays in Ebola disease dynamics, in this paper, we design an Ebola virus disease model with disease transmission dynamics based on a new exponential nonlinear incidence function. This new incidence function that captures the reduction in disease transmission due to human behaviour innovatively considers the efficacy and the speed of behaviour change. The model's steady states are determined and suitable Lyapunov functions are built. The proofs of the global stability of equilibrium points are presented. To demonstrate the utility of the model, we fit the model to Ebola virus disease data from Liberia and Sierra Leone. The results which are comparable to existing findings from the outbreak of 2014 − 2016 show a better fit when the efficacy and the speed of behaviour change are higher. A rapid and efficacious behaviour change as a control measure to rapidly control an Ebola virus disease epidemic is advocated. Consequently, this model has implications for the management and control of future Ebola virus disease outbreaks.

Contextualizing mobility during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia

Based on findings from focus groups and key informant interviews conducted at five sites in Liberia between 2018 and 2019, we explore some of the key factors that influenced people's motivation to travel during the 2014-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). We discuss how these factors led to certain mobility patterns and the implications these had for EVD response. The reasons for individual mobility during the epidemic were multiple and diverse. Some movements were related to relocation efforts as people attempted to extricate themselves from stigmatizing situations. Others were motivated by fear, convinced that other communities would be safer, particularly if extended family members resided there. Individuals also felt compelled to travel during the epidemic to meet other needs and obligations, such as attending burial rites. Some expressed concerns about obtaining food and earning a livelihood. Notably, these latter concerns served as an impetus to travel surreptitiously to evade quarantine directives aimed specifically at restricting mobility. Improvements in future infectious disease response could be made by incorporating contextually-based mobility factors, for example: the personalization of public health messaging through the recruitment of family members and trusted local leaders, to convey information that would help allay fear and combat stigmatization; activating existing traditional community surveillance systems in which entry into the community must first be approved by the community chief; and increased involvement of local leaders and community members in the provision of food and care to those quarantined so that the need to travel for these reasons is removed.

Strengthening global health security by improving disease surveillance in remote rural areas of low-income and middle-income countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to strengthen national surveillance systems to protect a globally connected world. In low-income and middle-income countries, zoonotic disease surveillance has advanced considerably in the past two decades. However, surveillance efforts often prioritise urban and adjacent rural communities. Communities in remote rural areas have had far less support despite having routine exposure to zoonotic diseases due to frequent contact with domestic and wild animals, and restricted access to health care. Limited disease surveillance in remote rural areas is a crucial gap in global health security. Although this point has been made in the past, practical solutions on how to implement surveillance efficiently in these resource-limited and logistically challenging settings have yet to be discussed. We highlight why investing in disease surveillance in remote rural areas of low-income and middle-income countries will benefit the global community and review current approaches. Using semi-arid regions in Kenya as a case study, we provide a practical approach by which surveillance in remote rural areas can be strengthened and integrated into existing systems. This Viewpoint represents a transition from simply highlighting the need for a more holistic approach to disease surveillance to a solid plan for how this outcome might be achieved.

Meningitis during COVID -19 pandemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo: A call for concern

Meningitis is a severe infection and a major public health challenge. The meningitis outbreak which had resurfaced amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been further stressing the health care systems that are already overburdened with detecting, preventing, and treating the current coronavirus disease. The recent meningitis outbreak in the DRC has resulted in a high case fatality ratio of 50% - an extremely worrying concern. Robust strategies are hence needed to curb the spread of the disease amid the COVID-19 pandemic, to prevent further adverse health outcomes and to mitigate the compounding burden on the country's healthcare systems. Several measures such as vaccination campaigns, adherence to sanitation and hygiene, improved surveillance and diagnostic capabilities could help prevent future epidemics in the country.

The deuce-ace of Lassa Fever, Ebola virus disease and COVID-19 simultaneous infections and epidemics in West Africa: clinical and public health implications

Globally, the prevailing COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented clinical and public health concerns with increasing morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, the burden of COVID-19 in Africa has been further exacerbated by the simultaneous epidemics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and Lassa Fever (LF) which has created a huge burden on African healthcare systems. As Africa struggles to contain the spread of the second (and third) waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of reported cases of LF is also increasing, and recently, new outbreaks of EVD. Before the pandemic, many of Africa's frail healthcare systems were already overburdened due to resource limitations in staffing and infrastructure, and also, multiple endemic tropical diseases. However, the shared epidemiological and pathophysiological features of COVID-19, EVD and LF as well their simultaneous occurrence in Africa may result in misdiagnosis at the onset of infection, an increased possibility of co-infection, and rapid and silent community spread of the virus(es). Other challenges include high population mobility across porous borders, risk of human-to-animal transmission and reverse zoonotic spread, and other public health concerns. This review highlights some major clinical and public health challenges toward responses to the COVID-19 pandemic amidst the deuce-ace of recurrent LF and EVD epidemics in Africa. Applying the One Health approach in infectious disease surveillance and preparedness is essential in mitigating emerging and re-emerging (co-)epidemics in Africa and beyond.

A landscape planning agenda for global health security: Learning from the history of HIV/AIDS and pandemic influenza

This paper considers the role of landscape planning and design in the context of a growing need for research and policy recommendations associated with Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs), of which COVID-19 is the most recent. Beginning with a definition of EIDs and their origins within the context of landscape planning, the paper then argues that planning and design scholars and practitioners should begin by seeing the importance of a "global urban ecosystem" (GUE) comprised of rapidly transforming metropolitan and regional "patches" connected through "corridors" of relatively unregulated global transportation and mobility networks. It then revisits the history of the two prior global pandemics of HIV/AIDS and pandemic influenza to establish the importance of a landscape planning perspective at the intersection of wildlife, livestock, and globally connected human communities. The essay concludes by arguing that this GUE concept can facilitate creative planning and design by adapting concepts established in other patch and corridor networks like urban transit systems to the ongoing risk of future pandemic EIDs.

Ebolavirus: Infection, Vaccination and Control

Members of the genus Ebolavirus (family Filoviridae) are among the deadliest viral pathogens spread throughout the world with severe rate of mortality, at least 90% in some outbreaks. Their virions are filamentous and enveloped with enclosed negative-sense single-stranded RNA genome. The genome potentially expresses seven structural and nonstructural proteins. The replication cycle is complex consisting of multiple molecular processes and interactions with human-host factors and proteins. Due to high mortality rate of infection, the studies regarding cure is still infancy. This review covers the current understanding of the virus replication cycle and vaccine development, and herbal treatments to control Ebola covering the available literature on the subject.

Computational Study on Potential Novel Anti-Ebola Virus Protein VP35 Natural Compounds

Ebola virus (EBOV) is one of the most lethal pathogens that can infect humans. The Ebola viral protein VP35 (EBOV VP35) inhibits host IFN-α/β production by interfering with host immune responses to viral invasion and is thus considered as a plausible drug target. The aim of this study was to identify potential novel lead compounds against EBOV VP35 using computational techniques in drug discovery. The 3D structure of the EBOV VP35 with PDB ID: 3FKE was used for molecular docking studies. An integrated library of 7675 African natural product was pre-filtered using ADMET risk, with a threshold of 7 and, as a result, 1470 ligands were obtained for the downstream molecular docking using AutoDock Vina, after an energy minimization of the protein via GROMACS. Five known inhibitors, namely, amodiaquine, chloroquine, gossypetin, taxifolin and EGCG were used as standard control compounds for this study. The area under the curve (AUC) value, evaluating the docking protocol obtained from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, generated was 0.72, which was considered to be acceptable. The four identified potential lead compounds of NANPDB4048, NANPDB2412, ZINC000095486250 and NANPDB2476 had binding affinities of −8.2, −8.2, −8.1 and −8.0 kcal/mol, respectively, and were predicted to possess desirable antiviral activity including the inhibition of RNA synthesis and membrane permeability, with the probable activity (Pa) being greater than the probable inactivity (Pi) values. The predicted anti-EBOV inhibition efficiency values (IC₅₀), found using a random forest classifier, ranged from 3.35 to 11.99 μM, while the Ki values ranged from 0.97 to 1.37 μM. The compounds NANPDB4048 and NANPDB2412 had the lowest binding energy of −8.2 kcal/mol, implying a higher binding affinity to EBOV VP35 which was greater than those of the known inhibitors. The compounds were predicted to possess a low toxicity risk and to possess reasonably good pharmacological profiles. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the protein–ligand complexes, lasting 50 ns, and molecular mechanisms Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM-PBSA) calculations corroborated the binding affinities of the identified compounds and identified novel critical interacting residues. The antiviral potential of the molecules could be confirmed experimentally, while the scaffolds could be optimized for the design of future novel anti-EBOV chemotherapeutics.

Ecological diversification reveals routes of pathogen emergence in endemic Vibrio vulnificus populations

Pathogen emergence is a complex phenomenon that, despite its public health relevance, remains poorly understood. Vibrio vulnificus, an emergent human pathogen, can cause a deadly septicaemia with over 50% mortality rate. To date, the ecological drivers that lead to the emergence of clinical strains and the unique genetic traits that allow these clones to colonize the human host remain mostly unknown. We recently surveyed a large estuary in eastern Florida, where outbreaks of the disease frequently occur, and found endemic populations of the bacterium. We established two sampling sites and observed strong correlations between location and pathogenic potential. One site is significantly enriched with strains that belong to one phylogenomic cluster (C1) in which the majority of clinical strains belong. Interestingly, strains isolated from this site exhibit phenotypic traits associated with clinical outcomes, whereas strains from the second site belong to a cluster that rarely causes disease in humans (C2). Analyses of C1 genomes indicate unique genetic markers in the form of clinical-associated alleles with a potential role in virulence. Finally, metagenomic and physicochemical analyses of the sampling sites indicate that this marked cluster distribution and genetic traits are strongly associated with distinct biotic and abiotic factors (e.g., salinity, nutrients, or biodiversity), revealing how ecosystems generate selective pressures that facilitate the emergence of specific strains with pathogenic potential in a population. This knowledge can be applied to assess the risk of pathogen emergence from environmental sources and integrated toward the development of novel strategies for the prevention of future outbreaks.

Conditions of Global Health Crisis Decision-Making-An Ethical Analysis

The circumstances of a public health emergency (PHE) shape reasoning and decision-making in ways that deviate from routine circumstances, where adherence to established values, principles, and methodologies is expected. Understanding what drives these deviations is critical to assessing their ethical consequences. In this paper we describe four conditions that influence decision-making during PHEs, in particular regarding the deployment and conduct of research on experimental or novel biomedical interventions. These four conditions are politicization, urgency, uncertainty, and fear. We argue that taken together these four conditions create pressure to address the most visible targets of immediate crisis events, driving emphasis on research and development of biomedical interventions. However, this emphasis raises ethical concerns regarding the extent to which attention to and investment in the underlying causes of PHEs, particularly impoverished global public health infrastructure, is diminished as a result.

Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.

Ebola virus disease is a highly pathogenic disease transmitted from wildlife to humans. It was first described in 1976 and its distribution remained restricted to Central Africa until 2014, when an outbreak in West Africa, causing more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths, took place. Anthropogenic factors, such as bushmeat hunting, trade and consumption, and environmental and climatic factors, may promote the contact between humans and infected animals, such as bats, primates and duikers, increasing the risk of virus transmission to the human population. In this study, we used the spatial multicriteria evaluation framework to gather all available information on risk factors and animal species susceptible to infection, and produce maps of areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover in regions in Guinea, Congo and Gabon. The resulting maps highlighted high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover. Data from reported cases of Ebola virus transmission from wild animals to humans were used to validate the maps. The approach developed is capable of integrating a wide diversity of risk factors, and provides a flexible and simple tool for surveillance, which can be updated as more data and knowledge on risk factors become available.

Ecology of Ebolaviruses

Africa is becoming known for the emergence and re-emergence of Ebola virus. The virus, which was initially restricted to East and Central Africa, is now emerging in West Africa. Ecological aspects of Ebola virus diseases are poorly understood. It is suspected that the virus is circulating in the forests of Africa, mostly hosted by migratory bats, which spread the virus to other wildlife particularly great apes and duikers. Spillovers occur when humans have contacts with wildlife. Transmission of the virus within human systems occurs through contacts with body fluids of an infected person. Several factors seem to be responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of the virus in Africa including circulation of the virus in forest ecosystems, persistence of the virus in body fluids (during sickness, upon death, and in survivors), transmission through diverse routes (direct contacts, fomites, oral), presence of infected migratory bats and other wildlife species, forest encroachment, and climatic and seasonal changes. Recent studies show that fresh outbreaks can emerge not only from wildlife but also from survivors of previous outbreaks. It is therefore important to understand the ecology of the virus in order to mitigate future emergence.

Rabies virus in slaughtered dogs for meat consumption in Ghana: A potential risk for rabies transmission

Dog-mediated rabies is responsible for approximately 60,000 human deaths annually worldwide. Although dog slaughter for human consumption and its potential risk for rabies transmission has been reported, mainly in some parts of Western Africa and South-East Asia, more information on this and factors that influence dog meat consumption is required for a better understanding from places like Ghana where the practice is common. We tested 144 brain tissues from apparently healthy dogs slaughtered for human consumption for the presence of rabies viruses using a Lyssavirus-specific real-Time RT-PCR. Positive samples were confirmed by virus genome sequencing. We also administered questionnaires to 541 dog owners from three regions in Ghana and evaluated factors that could influence dog meat consumption. We interacted with butchers and observed slaughtering and meat preparation procedures. Three out of 144 (2.1%) brain tissues from apparently healthy dogs tested positive for rabies virus RNA. Two of the viruses with complete genomes were distinct from one another, but both belonged to the Africa 2 lineage. The third virus with a partial genome fragment had high sequence identity to the other two and also belonged to the Africa 2 lineage. Almost half of the study participants practiced dog consumption [49% (265/541)]. Males were almost twice (cOR = 1.72, 95% CI (1.17-2.52), p-value = .006) as likely to consume dog meat compared to females. Likewise, the Frafra tribe from northern Ghana [cOR = 825.1, 95% CI (185.3-3672.9), p-value < .0001] and those with non-specific tribes [cOR = 47.05, 95% CI (10.18-217.41), p-value < .0001] presented with higher odds of dog consumption compared to Ewes. The butchers used bare hands in meat preparation. This study demonstrates the presence of rabies virus RNA in apparently healthy dogs slaughtered for human consumption in Ghana and suggests a potential risk for rabies transmission. Veterinary departments and local assemblies are recommended to monitor and regulate this practice.

A rapid risk analysis tool to prioritise response to infectious disease outbreaks

Epidemics are influenced by both disease and societal factors and can grow exponentially over short time periods. Epidemic risk analysis can help in rapidly predicting potentially serious outcomes and flagging the need for rapid response. We developed a multifactorial risk analysis tool 'EpiRisk' to provide rapid insight into the potential severity of emerging epidemics by combining disease-related parameters and country-related risk parameters. An initial set of 18 disease and country-related risk parameters was reduced to 14 following qualitative discussions and the removal of highly correlated parameters by a correlation and clustering analysis. Of the remaining parameters, three risk levels were assigned ranging from low (1) moderate (2) and high (3). The total risk score for an outbreak of a given disease in a particular country is calculated by summing these 14 risk scores, and this sum is subsequently classified into one of four risk categories: low risk (<21), moderate risk (21-29), high risk (30-37) and extreme risk (>37). Total risk scores were calculated for nine retrospective outbreaks demonstrating an association with the actual impact of those outbreaks. We also evaluated to what extent the risk scores correlate with the number of cases and deaths in 61 additional outbreaks between 2002 and 2018, demonstrating positive associations with outbreak severity as measured by the number of deaths. Using EpiRisk, timely intervention can be implemented by predicting the risk of emerging outbreaks in real time, which may help government and public health professionals prevent catastrophic epidemic outcomes.

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w.

African genetic diversity and adaptation inform a precision medicine agenda

The deep evolutionary history of African populations, since the emergence of modern humans more than 300,000 years ago, has resulted in high genetic diversity and considerable population structure. Selected genetic variants have increased in frequency due to environmental adaptation, but recent exposures to novel pathogens and changes in lifestyle render some of them with properties leading to present health liabilities. The unique discoverability potential from African genomic studies promises invaluable contributions to understanding the genomic and molecular basis of health and disease. Globally, African populations are understudied, and precision medicine approaches are largely based on data from European and Asian-ancestry populations, which limits the transferability of findings to the continent of Africa. Africa needs innovative precision medicine solutions based on African data that use knowledge and implementation strategies aligned to its climatic, cultural, economic and genomic diversity.

Assessing the determinants of Ebola virus disease transmission in Baka Community of the Tropical Rainforest of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe, often fatal illness in humans and nonhuman primates caused by the Ebola virus. The recently approved rVSV-EBOV vaccine is not available in many high-risk countries hence prevention is paramount. The design of effective prevention interventions requires an understanding of the factors that expose communities at risk. It was based on this that we investigated the Baka community of Abong-Mbang Health District in tropical rain forest of Cameroon.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted with participants randomly selected from 13 villages in Abong-Mbang by multi-stage cluster sampling. A questionnaire was administered to them to collect demographic information, data on knowledge of EVD, their feeding and health-seeking behaviour. Data was analyzed using the chi-square test. Knowledge of EVD was assessed using an 8 item Morisky Scale. An adapted Threat Capability Basic Risk Assessment Guide was used to determine their risk of exposure to infection.

RESULTS

A total of 510 participants, most of whom were hunters (31.4%), farmers (29.8%), and had primary education (62.7%), were included in this study. Although 83.3% participants had heard of EVD, most (71%) did not know its cause. Their source of information was mainly informal discussions in the community (49%). Misconceptions were identified with regards to the cause and mode of transmission. Only 43.1% accepted EVD could be transmitted from human-to-human. Generally, participants' knowledge of EVD was poor. Demographic factors such as level of education, occupation and ethnic group significantly affected knowledge of EVD. The majority of participants were at a very high risk of exposure to infection as they consumed various forms of bush meat and were involved in other risky practices such as scarification and touching of corpses. Although over half of participants seek medical care, most of them preferred traditional medicine. Socio-cultural and service-related factors were deterrent factors to medical care.

CONCLUSION

Participants generally had poor knowledge of EVD and were at high risk of infection. We recommend rigorous sensitization campaigns in the study area to educate the population on EVD and clarify the misconceptions identified. EVD surveillance is recommended particularly as outbreaks have often been reported in the Congo Basin.

A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.

The use of islands and cluster-randomized trials to investigate vector control interventions: a case study on the Bijagós archipelago, Guinea-Bissau

Vector-borne diseases threaten the health of populations around the world. While key interventions continue to provide protection from vectors, there remains a need to develop and test new vector control tools. Cluster-randomized trials, in which the intervention or control is randomly allocated to clusters, are commonly selected for such evaluations, but their design must carefully consider cluster size and cluster separation, as well as the movement of people and vectors, to ensure sufficient statistical power and avoid contamination of results. Island settings present an opportunity to conduct these studies. Here, we explore the benefits and challenges of conducting intervention studies on islands and introduce the Bijagós archipelago of Guinea-Bissau as a potential study site for interventions intended to control vector-borne diseases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel control strategies for mosquito-borne diseases'.

Nanotechnology for virus treatment

The continued emergence of novel viruses poses a significant threat to global health. Uncontrolled outbreaks can result in pandemics that have the potential to overburden our healthcare and economic systems. While vaccination is a conventional modality that can be employed to promote herd immunity, antiviral vaccines can only be applied prophylactically and do little to help patients who have already contracted viral infections. During the early stages of a disease outbreak when vaccines are unavailable, therapeutic antiviral drugs can be used as a stopgap solution. However, these treatments do not always work against emerging viral strains and can be accompanied by adverse effects that sometimes outweigh the benefits. Nanotechnology has the potential to overcome many of the challenges facing current antiviral therapies. For example, nanodelivery vehicles can be employed to drastically improve the pharmacokinetic profile of antiviral drugs while reducing their systemic toxicity. Other unique nanomaterials can be leveraged for their virucidal or virus-neutralizing properties. In this review, we discuss recent developments in antiviral nanotherapeutics and provide a perspective on the application of nanotechnology to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and future virus pandemics.

Perspectives on biometeorological research on the African continent

Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries.

Self-reported challenges to border screening of travelers for Ebola by district health workers in northern Ghana: An observational study

BACKGROUND

The 2013-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak remains the largest on record, resulting in the highest mortality and widest geographic spread experienced in Africa. Ghana, like many other African nations, began screening travelers at all entry points into the country to enhance disease surveillance and response. This study aimed to assess the challenges of screening travelers for EVD at border entry in northern Ghana.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This was an observational study using epidemiological weekly reports (Oct 2014-Mar 2015) of travelers entering Ghana in the Upper East Region (UER) and qualitative interviews with 12 key informants (7 port health officers and 5 district directors of health) in the UER. We recorded the number of travelers screened, their country of origin, and the number of suspected EVD cases from paper-based weekly epidemiological reports at the border entry. We collected qualitative data using an interview guide with a particular focus on the core and support functions (e.g. detection, reporting, feedback, etc.) of the World Health Organization's Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response system. Quantitative data was analyzed based on travelers screened and disaggregated by the three most affected countries. We used inductive approach to analyze the qualitative data and produced themes on knowledge and challenges of EVD screening.

RESULTS

A total of 41,633 travelers were screened, and only 1 was detained as a suspected case of EVD. This potential case was eventually ruled out via blood test. All but 52 of the screened travelers were from Ghana and its contiguous neighbors, Burkina Faso and Togo. The remaining 52 were from the four countries most affected by EVD (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Mali). Challenges to effective border screening included: inadequate personal protective equipment and supplies, insufficient space or isolation rooms and delays at the border crossings, and too few trained staff. Respondents also cited lack of capacity to confirm cases locally, lack of cooperation by some travelers, language barriers, and multiple entry points along porous borders. Nonetheless, no potential Ebola case identified through border screening was confirmed in Ghana.

CONCLUSION

Screening for Ebola remains sub-optimal at the entry points in northern Ghana due to several systemic and structural factors. Given the likelihood of future infectious disease outbreaks, additional attention and support are required if Ghana is to minimize the risk of travel-related spread of illness.

[Epidemiology of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever in Africa]

A variety of viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola virus disease exist in Africa and impose a great threat in public health due to their high fatality. It is considered to be difficult to eradicate the etiological agents of viral hemorrhagic fever because they have non-human natural hosts. Therefore, the importance of public health measures remains high in addition to the urgent need for the development of medicines for treatment and prevention. Furthermore, public health measures directly lead to the accumulation of epidemiological knowledge about the diseases. As an infectious disease consultant for the World Health Organization, I have been involved with public health activities including the development of clinical guidelines, the establishment of laboratory diagnostic systems, the training for infection, prevention and control, the planning of budget for outbreak response, and the analysis of epidemiological data. On the last point, I reported the situation of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Liberia, 2014-2015 and Lassa fever outbreak in Nigeria, 2018-2019 describing the risk factors, morbidity, and mortality of the diseases.

Nonhuman primate to human immunobridging to infer the protective effect of an Ebola virus vaccine candidate

It has been proven challenging to conduct traditional efficacy trials for Ebola virus (EBOV) vaccines. In the absence of efficacy data, immunobridging is an approach to infer the likelihood of a vaccine protective effect, by translating vaccine immunogenicity in humans to a protective effect, using the relationship between vaccine immunogenicity and the desired outcome in a suitable animal model. We here propose to infer the protective effect of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen with an 8-week interval in humans by immunobridging. Immunogenicity and protective efficacy data were obtained for Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimens using a fully lethal EBOV Kikwit challenge model in cynomolgus monkeys (nonhuman primates [NHP]). The association between EBOV neutralizing antibodies, glycoprotein (GP)-binding antibodies, and GP-reactive T cells and survival in NHP was assessed by logistic regression analysis. Binding antibodies against the EBOV surface GP were identified as the immune parameter with the strongest correlation to survival post EBOV challenge, and used to infer the predicted protective effect of the vaccine in humans using published data from phase I studies. The human vaccine-elicited EBOV GP-binding antibody levels are in a range associated with significant protection against mortality in NHP. Based on this immunobridging analysis, the EBOV GP-specific-binding antibody levels elicited by the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen in humans will likely provide protection against EBOV disease.

Detection of Ebola Virus Antibodies in Fecal Samples of Great Apes in Gabon

Based on a large study conducted on wild great ape fecal samples collected in regions of Gabon where previous human outbreaks of Ebola virus disease have occurred between 1994 and 2002, we provide evidence for prevalence of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV)-specific antibodies of 3.9% (immunoglobulin G (IgG)) and 3.5% (immunoglobulin M (IgM)) in chimpanzees and 8.8% (IgG) and 2.4% (IgM) in gorillas. Importantly, we observed a high local prevalence (31.2%) of anti-EBOV IgG antibodies in gorilla samples. This high local rate of positivity among wild great apes raises the question of a spatially and temporally localized increase in EBOV exposure risk and the role that can be played by these animals as sentinels of the virus’s spread or reemergence in a given area.

AAV Vectored Immunoprophylaxis for Filovirus Infections

Filoviruses are among the deadliest infectious agents known to man, causing severe hemorrhagic fever, with up to 90% fatality rates. The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa resulted in over 28,000 infections, demonstrating the large-scale human health and economic impact generated by filoviruses. Zaire ebolavirus is responsible for the greatest number of deaths to date and consequently there is now an approved vaccine, Ervebo, while other filovirus species have similar epidemic potential and remain without effective vaccines. Recent clinical success of REGN-EB3 and mAb-114 monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based therapies supports further investigation of this treatment approach for other filoviruses. While efficacious, protection from passive mAb therapies is short-lived, requiring repeat dosing to maintain therapeutic concentrations. An alternative strategy is vectored immunoprophylaxis (VIP), which utilizes an adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector to generate sustained expression of selected mAbs directly in vivo. This approach takes advantage of validated mAb development and enables vectorization of the top candidates to provide long-term immunity. In this review, we summarize the history of filovirus outbreaks, mAb-based therapeutics, and highlight promising AAV vectorized approaches to providing immunity against filoviruses where vaccines are not yet available.

Sociocultural, behavioural and political factors shaping the COVID-19 pandemic: the need for a biocultural approach to understanding pandemics and (re)emerging pathogens

Although there has been increasing focus in recent years on interdisciplinary approaches to health and disease, and in particular the dimension of social inequalities in epidemics, infectious diseases have been much less focused on. This is especially true in the area of cultural dynamics and their effects on pathogen behaviours, although there is evidence to suggest that this relationship is central to shaping our interactions with infectious disease agents on a variety of levels. This paper makes a case for a biocultural approach to pandemics such as COVID-19. It then uses this biocultural framework to examine the anthropogenic dynamics that influenced and continue to shape the COVID-19 pandemic, both during its initial phase and during critical intersections of the pandemic. Through this understanding of biocultural interactions between people, animals and pathogens, a broader societal and political dimension is drawn as a function of population level and international cultures, to reflect on the culturally mediated differential burden of the pandemic. Ultimately, it is argued that a biocultural perspective on infectious disease pandemics will allow for critical reflection on how culture shapes our behaviours at all levels, and how the effects of these behaviours are ultimately foundational to pathogen ecology and evolution.

Lessons Learned from Reinforcing Epidemiologic Surveillance During the 2017 Ebola Outbreak in the Likati District, Democratic Republic of the Congo

On May 12, 2017, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) publicly declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Likati District of the Bas-Uélé Province, 46 days after the index case became symptomatic. The delayed EVD case detection and reporting highlights the importance of establishing real-time surveillance, consistent with the Global Health Security Agenda. We describe lessons learned from implementing improved EVD case detection and reporting strategies at the outbreak epicenter and make recommendations for future response efforts. The strategies included daily coordination meetings to enhance effective and efficient outbreak response activities, assessment and adaptation of case definitions and reporting tools, establishment of a community alert system using context-appropriate technology, training facility and community health workers on adapted case definitions and reporting procedures, development of context-specific plans for outbreak data management, and strengthened operational support for communications and information-sharing networks. Post-outbreak, surveillance officials should preemptively plan for the next outbreak by developing emergency response plans, evaluating the case definitions and reporting tools used, retraining on revised case definitions, and developing responsive strategies for overcoming telecommunications and technology challenges. The ongoing EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces of DRC, currently the second largest EVD outbreak in history, demonstrates that documentation of successful context-specific strategies and tools are needed to combat the next outbreak. The lessons learned from the rapid containment of the EVD outbreak in Likati can be applied to the DRC and other rural low-resource settings to ensure readiness for future zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Bats as putative Zaire ebolavirus reservoir hosts and their habitat suitability in Africa

The genus Ebolavirus comprises some of the deadliest viruses for primates and humans and associated disease outbreaks are increasing in Africa. Different evidence suggests that bats are putative reservoir hosts and play a major role in the transmission cycle of these filoviruses. Thus, detailed knowledge about their distribution might improve risk estimations of where future disease outbreaks might occur. A MaxEnt niche modelling approach based on climatic variables and land cover was used to investigate the potential distribution of 9 bat species associated to the Zaire ebolavirus. This viral species has led to major Ebola outbreaks in Africa and is known for causing high mortalities. Modelling results suggest suitable areas mainly in the areas near the coasts of West Africa with extensions into Central Africa, where almost all of the 9 species studied find suitable habitat conditions. Previous spillover events and outbreak sites of the virus are covered by the modelled distribution of 3 bat species that have been tested positive for the virus not only using serology tests but also PCR methods. Modelling the habitat suitability of the bats is an important step that can benefit public information campaigns and may ultimately help control future outbreaks of the disease.

COVID-19 pandemic preparation: using simulation for systems-based learning to prepare the largest healthcare workforce and system in Canada

Healthcare resources have been strained to previously unforeseeable limits as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. This has prompted the emergence of critical just-in-time COVID-19 education, including rapid simulation preparedness, evaluation and training across all healthcare sectors. Simulation has been proven to be pivotal for both healthcare provider learning and systems integration in the context of testing and integrating new processes, workflows, and rapid changes to practice (e.g., new cognitive aids, checklists, protocols) and changes to the delivery of clinical care. The individual, team, and systems learnings generated from proactive simulation training is occurring at unprecedented volume and speed in our healthcare system. Establishing a clear process to collect and report simulation outcomes has never been more important for staff and patient safety to reduce preventable harm. Our provincial simulation program in the province of Alberta, Canada (population = 4.37 million; geographic area = 661,848 km2), has rapidly responded to this need by leading the intake, design, development, planning, and co-facilitation of over 400 acute care simulations across our province in both urban and rural Emergency Departments, Intensive Care Units, Operating Rooms, Labor and Delivery Units, Urgent Care Centers, Diagnostic Imaging and In-patient Units over a 5-week period to an estimated 30,000 learners of real frontline team members. Unfortunately, the speed at which the COVID-19 pandemic has emerged in Canada may prevent healthcare sectors in both urban and rural settings to have an opportunity for healthcare teams to participate in just-in-time in situ simulation-based learning prior to a potential surge of COVID-19 patients. Our coordinated approach and infrastructure have enabled organizational learnings and the ability to theme and categorize a mass volume of simulation outcome data, primarily from acute care settings to help all sectors further anticipate and plan. The goal of this paper is to share the unique features and advantages of using a centralized provincial simulation response team, preparedness using learning and systems integration methods, and to share the highest risk and highest frequency outcomes from analyzing a mass volume of COVID-19 simulation data across the largest health authority in Canada.

Consumer perceptions and reported wild and domestic meat and fish consumption behavior during the Ebola epidemic in Guinea, West Africa

The handling, capturing, butchering, and transportation of wildmeat can increase the risk of zoonoses, including the Ebola virus disease (EVD). Guinea, West Africa, experienced a catastrophic outbreak of EVD between 2013 and 2016. This study aimed to understand local people's sources of information concerning EVD, their perceptions of potential wildlife carriers of EVD and their meat and fish consumption behavior during this period. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 332 participants in two urban centers (N = 209) and three villages (N = 123) between January 3 and March 30, 2015 in the prefecture of Lola in southeastern Guinea. Chi-square analyses revealed that, in rural areas, awareness missions represented the main source of information about EVD (94.3%), whereas in urban settings such missions (36.1%), as well as newspapers (31.6%) and radio (32.3%) were equally mentioned. Bats (30.1% and 79.4%), chimpanzees (16.3% and 48.8%) and monkeys (13.0% and 53.1%) were the most commonly cited potential agents of EVD in both rural and urban areas respectively, while the warthog (2.3% rural and 6.5% urban), crested porcupine (1.7% rural and 10.7% urban), duiker (1.19% rural and 2.6% urban) and the greater cane rat (1.1% rural and 9.5% urban) were also cited but to a lesser extent. However, 66.7% of rural respondents compared to only 17.2% in the urban area did not consider any of these species as potential carriers of the Ebola virus. Nonetheless, a fifth of our respondents reported not consuming any of these species altogether during the EVD outbreak. Among all seven faunal groups mentioned, a significant reduction in reported consumption during the Ebola outbreak was only noted for bats (before: 78.3% and during: 31.9%) and chimpanzees (before: 31.6% and during: 13.5%). Automatic Chi-Square Interaction Detection (CHAID) analysis revealed that the belief that bats or chimpanzees were associated with EVD or not had a significant effect respectively on their non-consumption or continued consumption. However, only 3.9% of respondents reported shifting to alternative protein sources such as domestic meat or fish specifically to avoid EVD. Only 10.8% reported consuming more domestic meat during the EVD outbreak compared with before; affordability and availability were the main reported reasons for why people did not consume more domestic meat and why two thirds reported consuming more fish. While increased domestic meat consumption was linked to the belief that duikers, the most commonly consumed wildmeat before the epidemic, were associated with EVD, increased fish consumption was not predicted by any EVD related factors. Our study revealed deep-rooted false beliefs among rural respondents and constraints when it comes to access to alternative protein sources such as domestic meat. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for greater consideration of the relationship between socio-economic context, food security, and public health.