Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico

Evidence of Ongoing Transmission of Zika Virus in Mérida, Mexico

Since the Zika virus (ZIKV) pandemic in 2015-2017, there has been a near absence of reported cases in the Americas outside of Brazil. However, the conditions for Aedes-borne transmission persist in Latin America, and the threat of ZIKV transmission is increasing as population immunity wanes. Mexico has reported only 70 cases of laboratory-confirmed ZIKV infection since 2020, with no cases recorded in the Yucatán peninsula. Here, we provide evidence of active ZIKV transmission, despite the absence of official case reports, in the city of Mérida, Mexico, the capital of the state of Yucatán. Capitalizing on an existing cohort, we detected cases in participants with symptoms consistent with flavivirus infection from 2021 to 2022. Serum samples from suspected cases were tested for ZIKV RNA by polymerase chain reaction or ZIKV-reactive IgM by ELISA. To provide more specific evidence of exposure, focus reduction neutralization tests were performed on ELISA-positive samples. Overall, we observed 25 suspected ZIKV infections for an estimated incidence of 2.8 symptomatic cases per 1,000 persons per year. Our findings emphasize the continuing threat of ZIKV transmission in the setting of decreased surveillance and reporting.

Historical Hot Spots of Dengue and Zika Viruses to Guide Targeted Vector Control in San Juan, Puerto Rico (2010-2022)

Dengue viruses (DENV) continue to cause large outbreaks in tropical countries, while chikungunya and Zika (ZIKV) viruses have added complexity to Aedes-borne disease prevention and control efforts. Because these viruses are transmitted by the same vectors in urban areas, it is useful to understand if sequential outbreaks caused by these viruses have commonalities, such as similar seasonal and spatial patterns, that would help anticipate and perhaps prevent future outbreaks. We explored and analyzed the heterogeneity of confirmed cases of DENV (2010-2014 and 2015-2022) and ZIKV (2016-2017) during outbreaks in the San Juan metropolitan area of Puerto Rico to explore their degree of overlap and prioritize areas for Aedes aegypti control. Deidentified, georeferenced case data were aggregated into grid cells (500 × 500 m) within a geographical information system of the study area and analyzed to calculate the degree of overlap between outbreaks. Spatial autocorrelations using local indicators of spatial associations were conducted to identify significant disease case hot spots and correlations between outbreaks. We found that 75% of cases during the three transmission periods were concentrated in 25% of the total number of grid cells covering the study area. We also found significant clustering of cases during each outbreak, enabling identification of consistent disease hot spots. Our results showed 85% spatial overlap between cases of ZIKV in 2015-2017 and DENV in 2010-2014 and 97% overlap between DENV cases in 2010-2014 and 2015-2022. These results reveal urban areas at greater risk of future arbovirus outbreaks that should be prioritized for vector control.

Temperature affects viral kinetics and vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes co-infected with Mayaro and Dengue viruses

BACKGROUND

Increasing global temperatures and unpredictable climatic extremes have contributed to the spread of vector-borne diseases. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple arboviruses that negatively impact human health, mostly in low socioeconomic areas of the world. Co-circulation and co-infection of these viruses in humans have been increasingly reported; however, how vectors contribute to this alarming trend remains unclear.

METHODS

Here, we examine single and co-infection of Mayaro virus (D strain, Alphavirus) and dengue virus (serotype 2, Flavivirus) in Ae. aegypti adults and cell lines at two constant temperatures, moderate (27 °C) and hot (32 °C), to quantify vector competence and the effect of temperature on infection, dissemination and transmission, including on the degree of interaction between the two viruses.

RESULTS

Both viruses were primarily affected by temperature but there was a partial interaction with co-infection. Dengue virus quickly replicates in adult mosquitoes with a tendency for higher titers in co-infected mosquitoes at both temperatures, and mosquito mortality was more severe at higher temperatures in all conditions. For dengue, and to a lesser extent Mayaro, vector competence and vectorial capacity were higher at hotter temperature in co- vs. single infections and was more evident at earlier time points (7 vs. 14 days post infection) for Mayaro. The temperature-dependent phenotype was confirmed in vitro by faster cellular infection and initial replication at higher temperatures for dengue but not for Mayaro virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that contrasting kinetics of the two viruses could be related to their intrinsic thermal requirements, where alphaviruses thrive better at lower temperatures compared to flaviviruses. However, more studies are necessary to clarify the role of co-infection at different temperature regimes, including under more natural temperature settings.

School and community driven dengue vector control and monitoring in Myanmar: Study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background

Dengue is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne arboviral disease globally estimated to cause >390 million infections and >20,000 deaths annually. There are no effective preventive drugs and the newly introduced vaccines are not yet available. Control of dengue transmission still relies primarily on mosquito vector control. Although most vector control methods currently used by national dengue control programs may temporarily reduce mosquito populations, there is little evidence that they affect transmission. There is an urgent need for innovative, participatory, effective, and locally adapted approaches for sustainable vector control and monitoring in which students can be particularly relevant contributors and to demonstrate a clear link between vector reduction and dengue transmission reduction, using tools that are inexpensive and easy to use by local communities in a sustainable manner.

Methods

Here we describe a cluster randomized controlled trial to be conducted in 46 school catchment areas in two townships in Yangon, Myanmar. The outcome measures are dengue cases confirmed by rapid diagnostic test in the townships, dengue incidence in schools, entomological indices, knowledge, attitudes and practice, behavior, and engagement.

Conclusions

The trial involves middle school students that positions them to become actors in dengue knowledge transfer to their communities and take a leadership role in the delivery of vector control interventions and monitoring methods. Following this rationale, we believe that students can become change agents of decentralized vector surveillance and sustainable disease control in line with recent new paradigms in integrated and participatory vector surveillance and control. This provides an opportunity to operationalize transdisciplinary research towards sustainable health development. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and political instability in Myanmar the project has been terminated by the donor, but the protocol will be helpful for potential future implementation of the project in Myanmar and/or elsewhere.Registration: This trial was registered in the ISRCTN Registry on 31 May 2022 ( https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN78254298).

Targeted indoor residual insecticide applications shift Aedes aegypti age structure and arbovirus transmission potential

While residual insecticide applications have the potential to decrease pathogen transmission by reducing the density of vectors and shifting the age structure of the adult mosquito population towards younger stages of development, this double entomological impact has not been documented for Aedes aegypti. Aedes collected from households enrolled in a cluster-randomized trial evaluating the epidemiological impact of targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) in Merida, Mexico, were dissected and their age structure characterized by the Polovodova combined with Christopher's ovariole growth methods. In total, 813 females were dissected to characterize age structure at 1, 3, 6, and 9 months post-TIRS. Significant differences in the proportion of nulliparous Ae. aegypti females between the treatment groups was found at one-month post-TIRS (control: 35% vs. intervention: 59%), three months (20% vs. 49%) but not at six or nine months post-TIRS. TIRS significantly shiftted Ae. aegypti age structure towards younger stages and led to a non-linear reduction in survivorship compared to the control arm. Reduced survivorship also reduced the number of arbovirus transmitting females (those who survived the extrinsic incubation period). Our findings provide strong evidence of the full entomological impact of TIRS, with important implications for quantifying the epidemiological impact of vector control methods.

Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types

Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.

Zika, chikungunya and co-occurrence in Brazil: space-time clusters and associated environmental-socioeconomic factors

Chikungunya and Zika have been neglected as emerging diseases. This study aimed to analyze the space-time patterns of their occurrence and co-occurrence and their associated environmental and socioeconomic factors. Univariate (individually) and multivariate (co-occurrence) scans were analyzed for 608,388 and 162,992 cases of chikungunya and Zika, respectively. These occurred more frequently in the summer and autumn. The clusters with the highest risk were initially located in the northeast, dispersed to the central-west and coastal areas of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (2018-2021), and then increased in the northeast (2019-2021). Chikungunya and Zika demonstrated decreasing trends of 13% and 40%, respectively, whereas clusters showed an increasing trend of 85% and 57%, respectively. Clusters with a high co-occurrence risk have been identified in some regions of Brazil. High temperatures are associated with areas at a greater risk of these diseases. Chikungunya was associated with low precipitation levels, more urbanized environments, and places with greater social inequalities, whereas Zika was associated with high precipitation levels and low sewage network coverage. In conclusion, to optimize the surveillance and control of chikungunya and Zika, this study's results revealed high-risk areas with increasing trends and priority months and the role of socioeconomic and environmental factors.

A spatial analysis of co-circulating dengue and chikungunya virus infections during an epidemic in a region of Northeastern Brazil

The aim of this study was to describe, through spatial analysis, the cases of arboviruses (dengue and chikungunya), including deaths, during the first epidemic after the circulation of the chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil. This was an ecological study in both Pernambuco and the state capital, Recife, from 2015 to 2018. The odds ratios (OR) were estimated, and the statistical significance was considered p≤0.05. For the spatial analysis, Kulldorff's space-time scan statistics method was adopted to identify spatial clusters and to provide the relative risk (RR). In order to assess the significance at a level of p < 0.01 of the model, the number of Monte Carlo replications was 999 times. To perform the scan statistics we used the Poisson probability model, with a circular scanning window; annual temporal precision and retrospective analysis. A total of 227 deaths and 158,728 survivors from arboviruses was reported during the study period, with 100 deaths from dengue and 127 from CHIKV. The proportion of deaths from dengue was 0.08% and from chikungunya was 0.35%. The proportion of all those infected (deaths plus survivors) with dengue was 77.42% and with chikungunya was 22.58%. Children aged 0 to 9 years were around 3 times more likely to die than the reference group (OR 2.84; CI95% 1.16-5.00). From the age of 40, the chances of death increased significantly: 40-49 (OR 2.52; CI95% 1.19-5.29), 50-59 (OR 5.55; CI95% 2.76-11.17) and 60 or more (OR 14.90; CI95% 7.79-28.49). Males were approximately twice as likely to die as females (OR 1.77; CI95% 1.36-2.30). White-skinned people were less likely to die compared to non-white (OR 0.60; CI95% 0.41-0.87). The space-time analysis of prevalence in the state of Pernambuco revealed the presence of four clusters in the years 2015 and 2016, highlighting the Metropolitan Macro-region with a relative risk=4 and the Agreste and Hinterland macro-regions with a relative risk=3.3. The spatial distribution of the death rate in the municipality of Recife smoothed by the local empirical Bayesian estimator enabled a special pattern to be identified in the southwest and northeast of the municipality. The spatiotemporal analysis of the death rate revealed the presence of two clusters in the year 2015. In the primary cluster, it may be noted that the aforementioned aggregate presented a RR=7.2, and the secondary cluster presented a RR=6.0. The spatiotemporal analysis with Kulldorff's space-time scan statistics method, proved viable in identifying the risk areas for the occurrence of arboviruses, and could be included in surveillance routines so as to optimize prevention strategies during future epidemics.

Risk Stratification to Guide Prevention and Control Strategies for Arboviruses Transmitted by Aedes aegypti

Strategies for the prevention of arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti have traditionally focused on vector control. This remains the same to this day, despite a lack of documented evidence on its efficacy due to a lack of coverage and sustainability. The continuous growth of urban areas and generally unplanned urbanization, which favor the presence of Ae. aegypti, demand resources, both material and human, as well as logistics to effectively lower the population's risk of infection. These considerations have motivated the development of tools to identify areas with a recurrent concentration of arboviral cases during an outbreak to be able to prioritize preventive actions and optimize available resources. This study explores the existence of spatial patterns of dengue incidence in the locality of Tartagal, in northeastern Argentina, during the outbreaks that occurred between 2010 and 2020. Approximately half (50.8%) of the cases recorded during this period were concentrated in 35.9% of the urban area. Additionally, an important overlap was found between hotspot areas of dengue and chikungunya (Kendall's W = 0.92; p-value < 0.001) during the 2016 outbreak. Moreover, 65.9% of the cases recorded in 2022 were geolocalized within the hotspot areas detected between 2010 and 2020. These results can be used to generate a risk map to implement timely preventive control strategies that prioritize these areas to reduce their vulnerability while optimizing the available resources and increasing the scope of action.

Seroprevalence of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika at the epicenter of the congenital microcephaly epidemic in Northeast Brazil: A population-based survey

BACKGROUND

The four Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes were re-introduced in Brazil's Northeast region in a couple of decades, between 1980's and 2010's, where the DENV1 was the first detected serotype and DENV4 the latest. Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses were introduced in Recife around 2014 and led to large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, the true extent of the ZIKV and CHIKV outbreaks, as well as the risk factors associated with exposure to these viruses remain vague.

METHODS

We conducted a stratified multistage household serosurvey among residents aged between 5 and 65 years in the city of Recife, Northeast Brazil, from August 2018 to February 2019. The city neighborhoods were stratified and divided into high, intermediate, and low socioeconomic strata (SES). Previous ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV infections were detected by IgG-based enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Recent ZIKV and CHIKV infections were assessed through IgG3 and IgM ELISA, respectively. Design-adjusted seroprevalence were estimated by age group, sex, and SES. The ZIKV seroprevalence was adjusted to account for the cross-reactivity with dengue. Individual and household-related risk factors were analyzed through regression models to calculate the force of infection. Odds Ratio (OR) were estimated as measure of effect.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 2,070 residents' samples were collected and analyzed. The force of viral infection for high SES were lower as compared to low and intermediate SES. DENV seroprevalence was 88.7% (CI95%:87.0-90.4), and ranged from 81.2% (CI95%:76.9-85.6) in the high SES to 90.7% (CI95%:88.3-93.2) in the low SES. The overall adjusted ZIKV seroprevalence was 34.6% (CI95%:20.0-50.9), and ranged from 47.4% (CI95%:31.8-61.5) in the low SES to 23.4% (CI95%:12.2-33.8) in the high SES. The overall CHIKV seroprevalence was 35.7% (CI95%:32.6-38.9), and ranged from 38.6% (CI95%:33.6-43.6) in the low SES to 22.3% (CI95%:15.8-28.8) in the high SES. Surprisingly, ZIKV seroprevalence rapidly increased with age in the low and intermediate SES, while exhibited only a small increase with age in high SES. CHIKV seroprevalence according to age was stable in all SES. The prevalence of serological markers of ZIKV and CHIKV recent infections were 1.5% (CI95%:0.1-3.7) and 3.5% (CI95%:2.7-4.2), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed continued DENV transmission and intense ZIKV and CHIKV transmission during the 2015/2016 epidemics followed by ongoing low-level transmission. The study also highlights that a significant proportion of the population is still susceptible to be infected by ZIKV and CHIKV. The reasons underlying a ceasing of the ZIKV epidemic in 2017/18 and the impact of antibody decay in susceptibility to future DENV and ZIKV infections may be related to the interplay between disease transmission mechanism and actual exposure in the different SES.

Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm

Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors, such as mosquito population density, climatic conditions, and population movement patterns. However, there is a lack of studies that combine the above factors to explain their complex nonlinear relationships in dengue transmission and generate accurate predictions. Therefore, to study the complex spatial diffusion of dengue, this research combined the above factors and developed a network model for spatiotemporal transmission prediction of dengue fever using metapopulation networks based on human mobility. For improving the prediction accuracy of the epidemic model, the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF), a data assimilation algorithm, was used to iteratively assimilate the observed case data and adjust the model and parameters. Our study demonstrated that the metapopulation network-EAKF system provided accurate predictions for city-level dengue transmission trajectories in retrospective forecasts of 12 cities in Guangdong province, China. Specifically, the system accurately predicts local dengue outbreak magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic up to 10 wk in advance. In addition, the system predicted the peak time, peak intensity, and total number of dengue cases more accurately than isolated city-specific forecasts. The general metapopulation assimilation framework presented in our study provides a methodological foundation for establishing an accurate system with finer temporal and spatial resolution for retrospectively forecasting the magnitude and temporal peak of dengue fever outbreaks. These forecasts based on the proposed method can be interoperated to better support intervention decisions and inform the public of potential risks of disease transmission.

Temperature affects viral kinetics and vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes co-infected with Mayaro and Dengue viruses

Increasing global temperatures and unpredictable climatic extremes have contributed to the spread of vector-borne diseases. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple arboviruses that negatively impact human health, mostly in low socioeconomic areas of the world. Co-circulation and co-infection of these viruses in humans have been increasingly reported; however, how vectors contribute to this alarming trend remains unclear. Here, we examine single and co-infection of Mayaro virus (-D strain, Alphavirus) and dengue virus (serotype 2, Flavivirus) in Ae. aegypti adults and cell lines at two constant temperatures, moderate (27°C) and hot (32°C), to quantify vector competence and the effect of temperature on infection, dissemination and transmission, including on the degree of interaction between the two viruses. Both viruses were primarily affected by temperature but there was a partial interaction with co-infection. Dengue virus quickly replicates in adult mosquitoes, with a tendency for higher titers in co-infected mosquitoes at both temperatures and mosquito mortality was more severe at higher temperatures in all conditions. For dengue, and to a lesser extent Mayaro, vector competence and vectorial capacity were higher at hotter temperature in co- vs single infections and was more evident at earlier timepoints (7 vs 14 days post infection). The temperature-dependent phenotype was confirmed in vitro by faster cellular infection and initial replication at higher temperatures for dengue but not for Mayaro virus. Our study suggests that contrasting kinetics of the two viruses could be related to their intrinsic thermal requirements, where alphaviruses thrive better at lower temperatures compared to flaviviruses, but further studies are necessary to clarify the role of co-infection at different and variable temperature regimes.

The Potential of Surveillance Data for Dengue Risk Mapping: An Evaluation of Different Approaches in Cuba

To better guide dengue prevention and control efforts, the use of routinely collected data to develop risk maps is proposed. For this purpose, dengue experts identified indicators representative of entomological, epidemiological and demographic risks, hereafter called components, by using surveillance data aggregated at the level of Consejos Populares (CPs) in two municipalities of Cuba (Santiago de Cuba and Cienfuegos) in the period of 2010-2015. Two vulnerability models (one with equally weighted components and one with data-derived weights using Principal Component Analysis), and three incidence-based risk models were built to construct risk maps. The correlation between the two vulnerability models was high (tau > 0.89). The single-component and multicomponent incidence-based models were also highly correlated (tau ≥ 0.9). However, the agreement between the vulnerability- and the incidence-based risk maps was below 0.6 in the setting with a prolonged history of dengue transmission. This may suggest that an incidence-based approach does not fully reflect the complexity of vulnerability for future transmission. The small difference between single- and multicomponent incidence maps indicates that in a setting with a narrow availability of data, simpler models can be used. Nevertheless, the generalized linear mixed multicomponent model provides information of covariate-adjusted and spatially smoothed relative risks of disease transmission, which can be important for the prospective evaluation of an intervention strategy. In conclusion, caution is needed when interpreting risk maps, as the results vary depending on the importance given to the components involved in disease transmission. The multicomponent vulnerability mapping needs to be prospectively validated based on an intervention trial targeting high-risk areas.

Educational intervention for the control of Aedes aegypti with Wolbachia in Yucatan, Mexico

The implementation of new control strategies for Aedes aegypti (Ae. Aegpyti), a vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, requires communities to adopt specific behaviors to achieve the success of these innovations.

AIM

We evaluated the effect of an educational intervention based on the Precede-Proceed Model (PPM) and the Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DIT) for the control and prevention of diseases transmitted by Ae. aegypti through release of male mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia bacteria in a suburban town in Yucatan, Mexico.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

From July 2019 to February 2020, a quasi-experimental study was carried out through an educational intervention (pre- and post-measurements) using quantitative-qualitative techniques, in a Yucatan suburban town where male mosquitoes with Wolbachia were released for the suppression of Ae. aegypti populations. Eleven educational workshops were attended by heads of household (n = 19) and schoolchildren (n = 11). Other 136 heads of household not attending the workshops received information individually.

RESULTS

The educational intervention had a significant effect on the mean scores of the contributing and behavioral factors for adoption of innovation (p < 0.05) in the pre- and post-intervention measurements.

CONCLUSION

Innovative methods for the control and prevention of diseases related to Aedes aegypti can be strengthened through educational interventions supported by sound methodologies.

DESCRIPTORS

Community health education, Aedes aegypti, Wolbachia, Mexico.

Antibody seropositivity and endemicity of chikungunya and Zika viruses in Nigeria

Mosquito-borne infections are of global health concern because of their rapid spread and upsurge, which creates a risk for coinfections. chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an arbovirus disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti or A. albopictus, and malaria, a parasitic disease transmitted by Anopheles gambiae, are prevalent in Nigeria and neighbouring countries, but their burden and possible coinfections are poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the antibody seropositivity and endemicity of chikungunya and Zika viruses (ZIKV) in three regions of Nigeria. A cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted on 871 participants. Samples were collected from outpatients by simple random sampling. Analyses of the samples were performed using recomLine Tropical Fever for the presence of antibody serological marker IgG immunoblot with CHIKV VLP (virus like particle), ZIKV NS1 and ZIKV Equad according to manufacturers’ instructions and malaria RDT for malaria parasite. There was a significantly higher antibody seropositivity against CHIKV in the central region than in the northern and southern regions (69.5%, 291/419), while ZIKV-seropositivity (22.4%, 34/152) and CHIKV-ZIKV co-circulating antibody seropositivity (17.8%, 27/152) were notably higher in the southern region than in the central and northern regions. This investigation revealed an unexpectedly high antibody seropositivity and concealed endemicity of CHIKV and ZIKV in three Nigerian regions. The seropositivity of detectable antibodies differed among the three geographical locations.

Preventive residual insecticide applications successfully controlled Aedes aegypti in Yucatan, Mexico

Insecticide-based approaches remain a key pillar for Aedes-borne virus (ABV, dengue, chikungunya, Zika) control, yet they are challenged by the limited effect of traditional outdoor insecticide campaigns responding to reported arboviral cases and by the emergence of insecticide resistance in mosquitoes. A three-arm Phase II unblinded entomological cluster randomized trial was conducted in Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico, to quantify the entomological impact of targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS, application of residual insecticides in Ae. aegypti indoor resting sites) applied preventively 2 months before the beginning of the arbovirus transmission season. Trial arms involved the use of two insecticides with unrelated modes of action (Actellic 300CS, pirimiphos-methyl, and SumiShield 50WG, clothianidin) and a control arm where TIRS was not applied. Entomological impact was quantified by Prokopack adult collections performed indoors during 10 min per house. Regardless of the insecticide, conducting a preventive TIRS application led to significant reductions in indoor Ae. aegypti densities, which were maintained at the same levels as in the low arbovirus transmission period (Actellic 300CS reduced Ae. aegypti density up to 8 months, whereas SumiShield 50WG up to 6 months). The proportional reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance in treatment houses compared to control houses was 50-70% for Actellic 300CS and 43-63% for SumiShield 50WG. Total operational costs including insecticide ranged from US$4.2 to US$10.5 per house, depending on the insecticide cost. Conducting preventive residual insecticide applications can maintain Ae. aegypti densities at low levels year-round with important implications for preventing ABVs in the Americas and beyond.

Spatial, Sociodemographic, and Weather Analysis of the Zika Virus Outbreak: U.S. Virgin Islands, January 2016-January 2018

Background: The first Zika virus outbreak in U.S. Virgin Islands identified 1031 confirmed noncongenital Zika disease (n = 967) and infection (n = 64) cases during January 2016-January 2018; most cases (89%) occurred during July-December 2016. Methods and Results: The epidemic followed a continued point-source outbreak pattern. Evaluation of sociodemographic risk factors revealed that estates with higher unemployment, more houses connected to the public water system, and more newly built houses were significantly less likely to have Zika virus disease and infection cases. Increased temperature was associated with higher case counts, which suggests a seasonal association of this outbreak. Conclusion: Vector surveillance and control measures are needed to prevent future outbreaks.

Overlap between dengue, Zika and chikungunya hotspots in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Background

Arboviruses represent a threat to global public health. In the Americas, the dengue fever is endemic. This situation worsens with the introduction of emerging, Zika fever and chikungunya fever, causing epidemics in several countries within the last decade. Hotspot analysis contributes to understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics in the context of co-circulation of these three arboviral diseases, which have the same vector: Aedes aegypti.

Objective

To analyze the spatial distribution and agreement between the hotspots of the historical series of reported dengue cases from 2000 to 2014 and the Zika, chikungunya and dengue cases hotspots from 2015 to 2019 in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Methods

To identify hotspots, Gi* statistics were calculated for the annual incidence rates of reported cases of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya by neighborhood. Kendall’s W statistic was used to analyze the agreement between diseases hotspots.

Results

There was no agreement between the hotspots of the dengue fever historical series (2000–2014) and those of the emerging Zika fever and chikungunya fever (2015–2019). However, there was agreement between hotspots of the three arboviral diseases between 2015 and 2019.

Conclusion

The results of this study show the existence of persistent hotspots that need to be prioritized in public policies for the prevention and control of these diseases. The techniques used with data from epidemiological surveillance services can help in better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases wherever they circulate in the world.

Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia

Background

Colombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.

Methodology/Principal findings

We analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff’s scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika’s spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.

Conclusions/Significance

The results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are diseases transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. Between 2014 and 2016 chikungunya and Zika viruses started causing outbreaks in Colombia, one of the countries historically most affected by dengue. We used case counts of the diseases by municipality and week to study the spread trajectory of chikungunya and Zika within Colombia’s territory, and to identify space-time high-risk clusters, i.e., the areas and time periods that dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were more present. Chikungunya and Zika spread similarly in Colombia, but Zika spread faster. The Atlantic coast, a famous touristic destination in the country, was likely the place of entry of chikungunya and Zika in Colombia. The south-western region was identified as a high-risk cluster for all three diseases in separate and simultaneously. This region has a favorable climate for the Aedes mosquitoes and other characteristics that facilitate the diseases’ transmission, such as social deprivation and high population mobility. Our results provide useful information on the locations that should be prioritized for interventions to prevent the entry of new diseases transmitted by Aedes and to reduce the burden of dengue, chikungunya and Zika where they are established.

School and community driven dengue vector control and monitoring in Myanmar: Study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background. Dengue is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne arboviral disease globally estimated to cause >390 million infections and >20,000 deaths annually. There are no effective vaccines or preventive drugs. Control of dengue transmission relies primarily on mosquito vector control. Although most vector control methods currently used by national dengue control programs may temporarily reduce mosquito populations, there is little evidence that they affect transmission. There is an urgent need for innovative, participatory, effective, and locally adapted approaches for sustainable vector control and monitoring in which students can be particularly relevant contributors and to demonstrate a clear link between vector reduction and dengue transmission reduction, using tools that are inexpensive and easy to use by local communities in a sustainable manner. Methods. Here we describe a cluster randomized controlled trial to be conducted in 46 school catchment areas in two townships in Yangon, Myanmar. The outcome measures are dengue cases confirmed by rapid diagnostic test in the townships, dengue incidence in schools, entomological indices, knowledge, attitudes and practice, behavior, and engagement. Conclusions. The trial involves middle school students that positions them to become actors in dengue knowledge transfer to their communities and take a leadership role in the delivery of vector control interventions and monitoring methods. Following this rationale, we believe that students can become change agents of decentralized vector surveillance and sustainable disease control in line with recent new paradigms in integrated and participatory vector surveillance and control. This provides an opportunity to operationalize transdisciplinary research towards sustainable health development. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and political instability in Myanmar the project has been terminated by the donor, but the protocol will be helpful for potential future implementation of the project in Myanmar and/or elsewhere. Registration: This trial was registered in the ISRCTN Registry on 31 May 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN78254298).

Natural Aedes-Borne Virus Infection Detected in Male Adult Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Collected From Urban Settings in Mérida, Yucatán, México

Aedes-borne viruses (ABVs) such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) contribute significantly to the global burden of infectious diseases, disproportionately affecting disadvantaged populations from tropical and subtropical urban areas. ABVs can be transmitted from female mosquitoes to their progeny by vertical transmission via transovarial and/or trans-egg vertical transmission and contribute to the maintenance of infected-mosquito populations year-round in endemic regions. This study describes the natural infection rate of DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV in field-caught male Aedes (Sergentomyia) aegypti (Linnaeus) mosquitoes from Mérida, Yucatán, México, as a proxy for the occurrence of vertical virus transmission. We used indoor sequential sampling with Prokopack aspirators to collect all mosquitoes inside houses from ABV hotspots areas. Collections were performed in a DENV and CHIKV post-epidemic phase and during a period of active ZIKV transmission. We individually RT-qPCR tested all indoor collected Ae. aegypti males (1,278) followed by Sanger sequencing analysis for final confirmation. A total of 6.7% male mosquitoes were positive for ABV (CHIKV = 5.7%; DENV = 0.9%; ZIKV = 0.1%) and came from 21.0% (30/143) houses infested with males. Most ABV-positive male mosquitoes were positive for CHIKV (84.8%). The distribution of ABV-positive Ae. aegypti males was aggregated in a few households, with two houses having 11 ABV-positive males each. We found a positive association between ABV-positive males and females per house. These findings suggested the occurrence of vertical arbovirus transmission within the mosquito populations in an ABV-endemic area and, a mechanism contributing to viral maintenance and virus re-emergence among humans in post-epidemic periods.

Susceptibility to endemic Aedes-borne viruses among pregnant women in Risaralda, Colombia

OBJECTIVE

Aedes-borne viruses (ABV) affect humans on every inhabited continent and frequently cause epidemics. Recent epidemics of chikungunya and Zika viruses highlight that preparedness for future epidemics requires assessment of susceptibility, particularly among high-risk groups. We sought to determine immunity against the three major circulating ABV among pregnant women in an ABV-endemic area of Colombia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional seroprevalence study was performed, enrolling women presenting to Labor and Delivery. Cord blood and maternal peripheral blood was obtained. IgG seroprevalence to flaviviruses and chikungunya was determined by ELISA. An abbreviated neutralization test was used to estimate the frequency and magnitude of immunity to Zika and four dengue serotypes. Cluster analyses explored epidemiologic factors associated with seroprevalence.

RESULTS

Most women exhibited high levels of neutralizing antibodies to one or more ABV; however, nearly 20% were seronegative for flaviviruses. Our research took place after the epidemic peak of the ZIKV outbreak in Colombia in 2016, but only 20% of pregnant women had high levels of Zika-neutralizing antibodies consistent with likely protective immunity to ZIKV.

CONCLUSIONS

Hence, a high proportion pregnant women in Risaralda remain susceptible to one or more ABV including the teratogenic ZIKV, indicating risk for future epidemics in this region.

Spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico at the municipality level

In recent history, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks affecting humanity. The World Health Organization has defined the outbreak of COVID-19 as a pandemic, and the massive growth of the number of infected cases in a short time has caused enormous pressure on medical systems. Mexico surpassed 3.7 million confirmed infections and 285,000 deaths on October 23, 2021. We analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico using the georeferenced confirmed cases aggregated at the municipality level. We computed weekly Moran’s I index to assess spatial autocorrelation over time and identify clusters of the disease using the “flexibly shaped spatial scan” approach. Finally, we compared Euclidean, cost, resistance distances and gravitational model to select the best-suited approach to predict inter-municipality contagion. We found that COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico is characterised by clusters evolving in space and time as parallel epidemics. The gravitational distance was the best model to predict newly infected municipalities though the predictive power was relatively low and varied over time. This study helps us understand the spread of the epidemic over the Mexican territory and gives insights to model and predict the epidemic behaviour.

ARBOALVO: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de “Pronta Resposta” modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

Integrating Spatial Modelling and Space-Time Pattern Mining Analytics for Vector Disease-Related Health Perspectives: A Case of Dengue Fever in Pakistan

The spatial–temporal assessment of vector diseases is imperative to design effective action plans and establish preventive strategies. Therefore, such assessments have potential public health planning-related implications. In this context, we here propose an integrated spatial disease evaluation (I-SpaDE) framework. The I-SpaDE integrates various techniques such as the Kernel Density Estimation, the Optimized Hot Spot Analysis, space–time assessment and prediction, and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). It makes it possible to systematically assess the disease concentrations, patterns/trends, clustering, prediction dynamics, and spatially varying relationships between disease and different associated factors. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the I-SpaDE, we apply it in the second largest city of Pakistan, namely Lahore, using Dengue Fever (DF) during 2007–2016 as an example vector disease. The most significant clustering is evident during the years 2007–2008, 2010–2011, 2013, and 2016. Mostly, the clusters are found within the city’s central functional area. The prediction analysis shows an inclination of DF distribution from less to more urbanized areas. The results from the GWR show that among various socio-ecological factors, the temperature is the most significantly associated with the DF followed by vegetation and built-up area. While the results are important to understand the DF situation in the study area and have useful implications for public health planning, the proposed framework is flexible, replicable, and robust to be utilized in other similar regions, particularly in developing countries in the tropics and sub-tropics.

Efficacy of targeted indoor residual spraying with the pyrrole insecticide chlorfenapyr against pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti

Background

There is an increased need to mitigate the emergence of insecticide resistance and incorporate new formulations and modes of application to control the urban vector Aedes aegypti. Most research and development of insecticide formulations for the control of Ae. aegypti has focused on their peridomestic use as truck-mounted ULV-sprays or thermal fogs despite the widespread knowledge that most resting Ae. aegypti are found indoors. A recent modification of indoor residual spraying (IRS), termed targeted IRS (TIRS) works by restricting applications to 1.5 m down to the floor and on key Ae. aegypti resting sites (under furniture). TIRS also opens the possibility of evaluating novel residual insecticide formulations currently being developed for malaria IRS.

Methods

We evaluated the residual efficacy of chlorfenapyr, formulated as Sylando 240SC, for 12 months on free-flying field-derived pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti using a novel experimental house design in Merida, Mexico. On a monthly basis, 600 female Ae. aegypti were released into the houses and left indoors with access to sugar solution for 24 hours. After the exposure period, dead and alive mosquitoes were counted in houses treated with chlorfenapyr as well as untreated control houses to calculate 24-h mortality. An evaluation for these exposed cohorts of surviving mosquitoes was extended up to seven days under laboratory conditions to quantify “delayed mortality”.

Results

Mean acute (24-h) mortality of pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti ranged 80–97% over 5 months, dropping below 30% after 7 months post-TIRS. If delayed mortality was considered (quantifying mosquito mortality up to 7 days after exposure), residual efficacy was above 90% for up to 7 months post-TIRS application. Generalized Additive Mixed Models quantified a residual efficacy of chlorfenapyr of 225 days (ca. 7.5 months).

Conclusions

Chlorfenapyr represents a new option for TIRS control of Ae. aegypti in urban areas, providing a highly-effective time of protection against indoor Ae. aegypti females of up to 7 months.

Vector control (VC) for managing Aedes aegypti and reducing transmission of Aedes-borne diseases is largely focused on peridomestic insecticide applications. However, the indoor resting behavior of Ae. aegypti and the acceleration of insecticide resistance owed to reduced modes of action have diminished the effectiveness of many VC tools. A targeted Indoor residual spraying (TIRS) modality in experimental housing units was employed to investigate the potential of chlorfenapyr, a pyrrole-class insecticide with known effectiveness to resistant mosquito species. This was the first investigation for chlorfenapyr use against locally resistant Ae. aegypti (Merida, Mexico) with this approach. Two treatment arms were investigated in the present study: TIRS and a control house where only water was sprayed. A comparison of entomological efficacy for TIRS applied to interior perimeter walls below 1.5 m with chlorfenapyr (formulated as Sylando 240SC) at 250 mg/m² over 12 months was assessed. TIRS chlorfenapyr treatments were highly efficacious and led to acute mortalities (after 24 exposure) above 80% up to 5 months; delayed mortalities (to Ae. aegypti) were monitored over seven days post exposures vs untreated controls. When delayed mortality was considered, residual efficacy of chlorfenapyr extended to 7 months. These data provide evidence that TIRS chlorfenapyr is an effective Aedes management tool that surpassed efficacy profiles for other TIRS insecticides that have been previously reported with this method. Further, Chlorfenapyr emerges as a novel addition to Ae. aegypti VC, and future studies should focus on its effectiveness and residual power as part of Phase II-III TIRS trials.

Protective effect of house screening against indoor Aedes aegypti in Mérida, Mexico: A cluster randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the protective effect of house screening (HS) on indoor Aedes aegypti infestation, abundance and arboviral infection in Merida, Mexico.

METHODS

In 2019, we performed a cluster randomised controlled trial (6 control and 6 intervention areas: 100 households/area). Intervention clusters received permanently fixed fiberglass HS on all windows and doors. The study included two cross-sectional entomologic surveys, one baseline (dry season in May 2019) and one post-intervention (PI, rainy season between September and October 2019). The presence and number of indoor Aedes females and blood-fed females (indoor mosquito infestation) as well as arboviral infections with dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses were evaluated in a subsample of 30 houses within each cluster.

RESULTS

HS houses had significantly lower risk for having Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes (odds ratio [OR] = 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.97, p = 0.04) and blood-fed females (OR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-0.97, p = 0.04) than unscreened households from the control arm. Compared to control houses, HS houses had significantly lower indoor Ae. aegypti abundance (rate ratio [RR] = 0.50, 95% CI 0.30-0.83, p = 0.01), blood-fed Ae. aegypti females (RR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.27-0.85, p = 0.01) and female Ae. aegypti positive for arboviruses (OR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.10-0.86, p = 0.02). The estimated intervention efficacy in reducing Ae. aegypti arbovirus infection was 71%.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide evidence supporting the use of HS as an effective pesticide-free method to control house infestations with Aedes aegypti and reduce the transmission of Aedes-transmitted viruses such as DENV, chikungunya (CHIKV) and ZIKV.

Autoregressive spatial modeling of possible cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in the capital of Northeastern Brazil

INTRODUCTION:

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are a growing global health problem. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases in São Luís, Maranhão, from 2015 to 2016 and investigated the association between socio-environmental and economic factors and hotspots for mosquito proliferation.

METHODS:

This was a socio-ecological study using data from the National Information System of Notifiable Diseases. The spatial units of analysis were census tracts. The incidence rates of the combined cases of the three diseases were calculated and smoothed using empirical local Bayes estimates. The spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate was measured using Local Moran's I and Global Moran's I. Multiple linear regression and spatial autoregressive models were fitted using the log of the smoothed disease incidence rate as the dependent variable and socio-environmental factors, demographics, and mosquito hotspots as independent variables.

RESULTS:

The findings showed a significant spatial autocorrelation of the smoothed incidence rate. The model that best fit the data was the spatial lag model, revealing a positive association between disease incidence and the proportion of households with surrounding garbage accumulation.

CONCLUSIONS:

The distribution of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika cases showed a significant spatial pattern, in which the high-risk areas for the three diseases were explained by the variable "garbage accumulated in the surrounding environment,” demonstrating the need for an intersectoral approach for vector control and prevention that goes beyond health actions.

Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis

Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions.

Dengue fever is mainly transmitted by a mosquito species that is highly urbanized, and lays eggs and develops mostly in artificial water containers. Dengue transmission is sustained year-round in most tropical regions of the world, but in many subtropical/temperate regions it occurs only in the warmest months. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these regions, we analyzed one of the largest outbreaks in Buenos Aires city, a subtropical metropolis. Based on information on 5,104 georeferenced cases during summer-autumn 2016, we found that most transmission occurred in or near home, that slums had the highest risk of transmission, and that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. We showed that the cumulative effects of temperature over the previous few weeks set the temporal limits for transmission to occur, and that the outbreak was sparked by infected people arriving from regions with ongoing outbreaks. Additionally, we implemented a statistical method to identify transmission foci in real-time that improves targeting control interventions. Our results deepen the understanding of dengue transmission as a result of social, physical, and biological processes, and pose multiple opportunities for improving control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever.

The effects of DENV serotype competition and co-infection on viral kinetics in Wolbachia-infected and uninfected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

BACKGROUND

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is responsible for the transmission of several medically important arthropod-borne viruses, including multiple serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4). Competition within the mosquito between DENV serotypes can affect viral infection dynamics, modulating the transmission potential of the pathogen. Vector control remains the main method for limiting dengue fever. The insect endosymbiont Wolbachia pipientis is currently being trialed in field releases globally as a means of biological control because it reduces virus replication inside the mosquito. It is not clear how co-infection between DENV serotypes in the same mosquito might alter the pathogen-blocking phenotype elicited by Wolbachia in Ae. aegypti.

METHODS

Five- to 7-day-old female Ae. aegypti from two lines, namely, with (wMel) and without Wolbachia infection (WT), were fed virus-laden blood through an artificial membrane with either a mix of DENV-2 and DENV-3 or the same DENV serotypes singly. Mosquitoes were subsequently incubated inside environmental chambers and collected on the following days post-infection: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, and 13. Midgut, carcass, and salivary glands were collected from each mosquito at each timepoint and individually analyzed to determine the percentage of DENV infection and viral RNA load via RT-qPCR.

RESULTS

We saw that for WT mosquitoes DENV-3 grew to higher viral RNA loads across multiple tissues when co-infected with DENV-2 than when it was in a mono-infection. Additionally, we saw a strong pathogen-blocking phenotype in wMel mosquitoes independent of co-infection status.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we demonstrated that the wMel mosquito line is capable of blocking DENV serotype co-infection in a systemic way across the mosquito body. Moreover, we showed that for WT mosquitoes, serotype co-infection can affect infection frequency in a tissue- and time-specific manner and that both viruses have the potential of being transmitted simultaneously. Our findings suggest that the long-term efficacy of Wolbachia pathogen blocking is not compromised by arthropod-borne virus co-infection.

Climate change and the dynamics of age-related malaria incidence in Southern Africa

In the last decade, many malaria-endemic countries, like Zambia, have achieved significant reductions in malaria incidence among children <5 years old but face ongoing challenges in achieving similar progress against malaria in older age groups. In parts of Zambia, changing climatic and environmental factors are among those suspectedly behind high malaria incidence. Changes and variations in these factors potentially interfere with intervention program effectiveness and alter the distribution and incidence patterns of malaria differentially between young children and the rest of the population. We used parametric and non-parametric statistics to model the effects of climatic and socio-demographic variables on age-specific malaria incidence vis-à-vis control interventions. Linear regressions, mixed models, and Mann-Kendall tests were implemented to explore trends, changes in trends, and regress malaria incidence against environmental and intervention variables. Our study shows that while climate parameters affect the whole population, their impacts are felt most by people aged ≥5 years. Climate variables influenced malaria substantially more than mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying interventions. We establish that climate parameters negatively impact malaria control efforts by exacerbating the transmission conditions via more conducive temperature and rainfall environments, which are augmented by cultural and socioeconomic exposure mechanisms. We argue that an intensified communications and education intervention strategy for behavioural change specifically targeted at ≥5 aged population where incidence rates are increasing, is urgently required and call for further malaria stratification among the ≥5 age groups in the routine collection, analysis and reporting of malaria mortality and incidence data.

Identifying urban hotspots of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission in Mexico to support risk stratification efforts: a spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Effective Aedes aegypti control is limited, in part, by the difficulty in achieving sufficient intervention coverage. To maximise the effect of vector control, areas with persistently high numbers of Aedes-borne disease cases could be identified and prioritised for preventive interventions. We aimed to identify persistent Aedes-borne disease hotspots in cities across southern Mexico.

METHODS

In this spatial analysis, geocoded cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika from nine endemic Mexican cities were aggregated at the census-tract level. We included cities that were located in southern Mexico (the arbovirus endemic region of Mexico), with a high burden of dengue cases (ie, more than 5000 cases reported during a 10-year period), and listed as high priority for the Mexican dengue control and prevention programme. The Getis-Ord Gi*(d) statistic was applied to yearly slices of the dataset to identify spatial hotspots of each disease in each city. We used Kendall's W coefficient to quantify the agreement in the distribution of each virus.

FINDINGS

128 507 dengue, 4752 chikungunya and 25 755 Zika clinical cases were reported between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016. All cities showed evidence of transmission heterogeneity, with a mean of 17·6% (SD 4·7) of their total area identified as persistent disease hotspots. Hotspots accounted for 25·6% (SD 9·7; range 12·8-43·0) of the population and 32·1% (10·5; 19·6-50·5) of all Aedes-borne disease cases reported. We found an overlap between hotspots of 61·7% for dengue and Zika and 53·3% for dengue and chikungunya. Dengue hotspots in 2008-16 were significantly associated with dengue hotspots detected during 2017-20 in five of the nine cities. Heads of vector control confirmed hotspot areas as problem zones for arbovirus transmission.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides evidence of the overlap of Aedes-borne diseases within geographical hotspots and a methodological framework for the stratification of arbovirus transmission risk within urban areas, which can guide the implementation of surveillance and vector control.

FUNDING

USAID, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, International Development Research Centre, Fondo Mixto CONACyT (Mexico)-Gobierno del Estado de Yucatan, and the US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

West Nile and Zika viruses in bats from a suburban area of Merida, Yucatan, Mexico

Infections with viruses of the Flavivirus genus were explored in 22 bats (Artibeus jamaicensis) from Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. The detection of the viral genus was performed by RT-PCR, and infections with dengue (DENV 1-4), West Nile (WNV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses were subsequently explored. Sequences from positive products were analysed using the BLAST algorithm to determine identity. In 7 (31.8%) and 2 (9.1%) bats, WNV and ZIKV were identified, respectively. The bioinformatic analysis showed 98%-100% coverage and identity for both viruses. Molecular evidence of WNV and ZIKV natural infection in bats from Yucatan, Mexico, is presented.

The entomological impact of passive metofluthrin emanators against indoor Aedes aegypti: A randomized field trial

Background

In the absence of vaccines or drugs, insecticides are the mainstay of Aedes-borne disease control. Their utility is challenged by the slow deployment of resources, poor community compliance and inadequate household coverage. Novel application methods are required.

Methodology and principal findings

A 10% w/w metofluthrin “emanator” that passively disseminates insecticide from an impregnated net was evaluated in a randomized trial of 200 houses in Mexico. The devices were introduced at a rate of 1 per room and replaced at 3-week intervals. During each of 7 consecutive deployment cycles, indoor resting mosquitoes were sampled using aspirator collections. Assessments of mosquito landing behaviours were made in a subset of houses. Pre-treatment, there were no differences in Aedes aegypti indices between houses recruited to the control and treatment arms. Immediately after metofluthrin deployment, the entomological indices between the trial arms diverged. Averaged across the trial, there were significant reductions in Abundance Rate Ratios for total Ae. aegypti, female abundance and females that contained blood meals (2.5, 2.4 and 2.3-times fewer mosquitoes respectively; P<0.001). Average efficacy was 60.2% for total adults, 58.3% for females, and 57.2% for blood-fed females. The emanators also reduced mosquito landings by 90% from 12.5 to 1.2 per 10-minute sampling period (P<0.05). Homozygous forms of the pyrethroid resistant kdr alleles V410L, V1016L and F1534C were common in the target mosquito population; found in 39%, 24% and 95% of mosquitoes collected during the trial.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impact of any volatile pyrethroid on urban Ae. aegypti. It demonstrates that volatile pyrethroids can have a sustained impact on Ae. aegypti population densities and human-vector contact indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistant alleles in the target population. Formulations like these may have considerable utility for public health vector control responses.

Insecticidal control tools are heavily relied on for the control of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, but the logistics associated with conventional insecticide use (e.g. space sprays and residual formulations) are challenging. Considerable time and resources are required to treat household interiors; an impediment exacerbated by the difficulty in gaining entrance to households, and sometimes by limited compliance in the community. Another constraint to effective insecticide use is that many mosquito populations are resistant to the chemicals used. Volatile pyrethroids, exhibiting both lethal and behavioural effects on mosquitoes are available in formulations that release insecticides passively to the air, at room temperature. These may be suitable for deployment in houses with the aim of creating “bite-free” spaces. By removing the need for conventional application methods, these devices might be rapidly deployed with minimum disruption to households. This is the first large-scale, randomized control trial to evaluate the entomological impacts of volatile pyrethroids in an urban environment. Using metofluthrin as an example, we confirm that some formulations have a significant impact on Aedes aegypti densities and landing behaviour indoors. These effects occur despite the presence of pyrethroid-resistance alleles associated with conventional insecticide resistance.

Insecticide-treated house screening protects against Zika-infected Aedes aegypti in Merida, Mexico

Background

The integration of house-screening and long-lasting insecticidal nets, known as insecticide-treated screening (ITS), can provide simple, safe, and low-tech Aedes aegypti control. Cluster randomised controlled trials in two endemic localities for Ae. aegypti of south Mexico, showed that ITS conferred both, immediate and sustained (~2 yr) impact on indoor-female Ae. aegypti infestations. Such encouraging results require further validation with studies quantifying more epidemiologically-related endpoints, including arbovirus infection in Ae. aegypti. We evaluated the efficacy of protecting houses with ITS on Ae. aegypti infestation and arbovirus infection during a Zika outbreak in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.

Methodology/Principal findings

A two-arm cluster-randomised controlled trial evaluated the entomological efficacy of ITS compared to the absence of ITS (with both arms able to receive routine arbovirus vector control) in the neighbourhood Juan Pablo II of Merida. Cross-sectional entomological surveys quantified indoor adult mosquito infestation and arbovirus infection at baseline (pre-ITS installation) and throughout two post-intervention (PI) surveys spaced at 6-month intervals corresponding to dry/rainy seasons over one year (2016–2017). Household-surveys assessed the social reception of the intervention. Houses with ITS were 79–85% less infested with Aedes females than control houses up to one-year PI. A similar significant trend was observed for blood-fed Ae. aegypti females (76–82%). Houses with ITS had significantly less infected female Ae. aegypti than controls during the peak of the epidemic (OR = 0.15, 95%CI: 0.08–0.29), an effect that was significant up to a year PI (OR = 0.24, 0.15–0.39). Communities strongly accepted the intervention, due to its perceived mode of action, the prevalent risk for Aedes-borne diseases in the area, and the positive feedback from neighbours receiving ITS.

Conclusions/Significance

We show evidence of the protective efficacy of ITS against an arboviral disease of major relevance, and discuss the relevance of our findings for intervention adoption.

We evaluated the efficacy of protecting houses with insecticide-treated nets permanently fixed with aluminium frames on external doors and windows on Ae. aegypti infestation and arbovirus infection during a Zika outbreak in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Houses protected with screens were ≈80% less infested with Aedes females and very importantly, had significantly less infected female Ae. aegypti during the peak of the epidemic. Communities strongly accepted the intervention, due to its perceived mode of action, the prevalent risk for Aedes-borne diseases in the area, and the positive feedback from neighbours. House screening provides a simple, affordable sustainable method to reduce human-vector contact inside houses and can protect against dengue, chikungunya and Zika.

Asynchronicity of endemic and emerging mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in the Dominican Republic

Mosquito-borne viruses threaten the Caribbean due to the region's tropical climate and seasonal reception of international tourists. Outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika have demonstrated the rapidity with which these viruses can spread. Concurrently, dengue fever cases have climbed over the past decade. Sustainable disease control measures are urgently needed to quell virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks. Here, to improve upon current control methods, we analyze temporal and spatial patterns of chikungunya, Zika, and dengue outbreaks reported in the Dominican Republic between 2012 and 2018. The viruses that cause these outbreaks are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which are sensitive to seasonal climatological variability. We evaluate whether climate and the spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue outbreaks could explain patterns of emerging disease outbreaks. We find that emerging disease outbreaks were robust to the climatological and spatio-temporal constraints defining seasonal dengue outbreak dynamics, indicating that constant surveillance is required to prevent future health crises.

Natural arbovirus infection rate and detectability of indoor female Aedes aegypti from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico

Arbovirus infection in Aedes aegypti has historically been quantified from a sample of the adult population by pooling collected mosquitoes to increase detectability. However, there is a significant knowledge gap about the magnitude of natural arbovirus infection within areas of active transmission, as well as the sensitivity of detection of such an approach. We used indoor Ae. aegypti sequential sampling with Prokopack aspirators to collect all mosquitoes inside 200 houses with suspected active ABV transmission from the city of Mérida, Mexico, and tested all collected specimens by RT-PCR to quantify: a) the absolute arbovirus infection rate in individually tested Ae. aegypti females; b) the sensitivity of using Prokopack aspirators in detecting ABV-infected mosquitoes; and c) the sensitivity of entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and vectorial capacity (VC), two measures ABV transmission potential, to different estimates of indoor Ae. aegypti abundance. The total number of Ae. aegypti (total catch, the sum of all Ae. aegypti across all collection intervals) as well as the number on the first 10-min of collection (sample, equivalent to a routine adult aspiration session) were calculated. We individually tested by RT-PCR 2,161 Aedes aegypti females and found that 7.7% of them were positive to any ABV. Most infections were CHIKV (77.7%), followed by DENV (11.4%) and ZIKV (9.0%). The distribution of infected Aedes aegypti was overdispersed; 33% houses contributed 81% of the infected mosquitoes. A significant association between ABV infection and Ae. aegypti total catch indoors was found (binomial GLMM, Odds Ratio > 1). A 10-min indoor Prokopack collection led to a low sensitivity of detecting ABV infection (16.3% for detecting infected mosquitoes and 23.4% for detecting infected houses). When averaged across all infested houses, mean EIR ranged between 0.04 and 0.06 infective bites per person per day, and mean VC was 0.6 infectious vectors generated from a population feeding on a single infected host per house/day. Both measures were significantly and positively associated with Ae. aegypti total catch indoors. Our findings provide evidence that the accurate estimation and quantification of arbovirus infection rate and transmission risk is a function of the sampling effort, the local abundance of Aedes aegypti and the intensity of arbovirus circulation.

Aedes-borne diseases comprise a serious public health burden in many parts of the world, usually affecting low income areas. The ability to detect virus circulation within a population may be key in responding to the threat of outbreaks, providing a cost-effective approach for triggering vector control. Unfortunately, gaps in the knowledge of natural Aedes-borne virus (ABV) infection in Aedes aegypti have led to uncertainties in the consideration of arbovirus surveillance in mosquitoes. Here, we show that the natural infection rate in a mosquito population may not be a function of where Aedes aegypti are, but rather where key human-mosquito contacts occur. Sampling 200 houses with suspected ABV active transmission led us to quantify high virus infection rates in all Aedes aegypti present in the house and use such information to estimate the sensitivity of indoor aspiration with Prokopack devices and two measures of ABV transmission potential. Our findings provide evidence that the accurate quantification of arbovirus infection rate and transmission risk is a function of the sampling effort, the local abundance of Aedes aegypti and the intensity of arbovirus circulation. Results from this study are relevant to understand the value of virus testing of vector populations, and for the design of entomological endpoints relevant for epidemiological trials quantifying the impact of vector control on ABVs.

Evaluating Over-the-Counter Household Insecticide Aerosols for Rapid Vector Control of Pyrethroid-Resistant Aedes aegypti

Vector control methods that mobilize and impact rapidly during dengue, Zika, and chikungunya outbreaks are urgently needed in urban contexts. We investigated whether one person using a handheld aerosolized insecticide could achieve efficacy levels comparable to targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS), using pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti in a semi-field setting with experimental houses in Mexico. The insecticide product (H24, a carbamate and pyrethroid mixture), available over-the-counter locally, was sprayed only on known Ae. aegypti-resting surfaces, for example, walls less than 1.5 m and dark hidden areas. In six identical houses with paired bedrooms, one bedroom was treated, and the other remained an untreated control. Each week for 8 weeks, 100 female pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti were released in each bedroom and followed up daily. Mortality rates in treated bedrooms exceeded 90% for at least 2 weeks, and more than 80% (89.2; 95% CI: 79.98-98.35) for 3 weeks or more. Mortality rates in control houses were zero. Results demonstrate that the immediate impact of TIRS can be delivered by one person using existing products, at an estimated cost for the average household in Mexico of under US$3 per month. Triggered by early outbreak signs, dissemination via community hubs and mass/social media of instructions to treat the home immediately, with monthly re-treatment thereafter, provides a simple means to engage and empower householders. Compatible with integrated vector management strategies, it enables self-protection even if existing agencies falter, a situation exemplified by the potential impact on vector control of the restrictions imposed during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

The TIRS trial: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial assessing the efficacy of preventive targeted indoor residual spraying to reduce Aedes-borne viral illnesses in Merida, Mexico

BACKGROUND

Current urban vector control strategies have failed to contain dengue epidemics and to prevent the global expansion of Aedes-borne viruses (ABVs: dengue, chikungunya, Zika). Part of the challenge in sustaining effective ABV control emerges from the paucity of evidence regarding the epidemiological impact of any Aedes control method. A strategy for which there is limited epidemiological evidence is targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS). TIRS is a modification of classic malaria indoor residual spraying that accounts for Aedes aegypti resting behavior by applying residual insecticides on exposed lower sections of walls (< 1.5 m), under furniture, and on dark surfaces.

METHODS/DESIGN

We are pursuing a two-arm, parallel, unblinded, cluster randomized controlled trial to quantify the overall efficacy of TIRS in reducing the burden of laboratory-confirmed ABV clinical disease (primary endpoint). The trial will be conducted in the city of Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico (population ~ 1million), where we will prospectively follow 4600 children aged 2-15 years at enrollment, distributed in 50 clusters of 5 × 5 city blocks each. Clusters will be randomly allocated (n = 25 per arm) using covariate-constrained randomization. A "fried egg" design will be followed, in which all blocks of the 5 × 5 cluster receive the intervention, but all sampling to evaluate the epidemiological and entomological endpoints will occur in the "yolk," the center 3 × 3 city blocks of each cluster. TIRS will be implemented as a preventive application (~ 1-2 months prior to the beginning of the ABV season). Active monitoring for symptomatic ABV illness will occur through weekly household visits and enhanced surveillance. Annual sero-surveys will be performed after each transmission season and entomological evaluations of Ae. aegypti indoor abundance and ABV infection rates monthly during the period of active surveillance. Epidemiological and entomological evaluation will continue for up to three transmission seasons.

DISCUSSION

The findings from this study will provide robust epidemiological evidence of the efficacy of TIRS in reducing ABV illness and infection. If efficacious, TIRS could drive a paradigm shift in Aedes control by considering Ae. aegypti behavior to guide residual insecticide applications and changing deployment to preemptive control (rather than in response to symptomatic cases), two major enhancements to existing practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04343521 . Registered on 13 April 2020. The protocol also complies with the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (Additional file 1).

PRIMARY SPONSOR

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH/NIAID).

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of co-circulating dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017

The mosquito-borne viruses dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), now co-endemic in the Americas, pose growing threats to health worldwide. However, it remains unclear whether there exist interactions between these viruses that could shape their epidemiology. This study advances knowledge by assessing the transmission dynamics of co-circulating DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV were analyzed using georeferenced data on over 210,000 reported cases from 2011 to 2017 in Fortaleza, Brazil. Local spatial clustering tests and space-time scan statistics were used to compare transmission dynamics across all years. The transmission of co-circulating viruses in 2016 and 2017 was evaluated at fine spatial and temporal scales using a measure of spatiotemporal dependence, the τ-statistic. Results revealed differences in the diffusion of CHIKV compared to previous DENV epidemics and spatially distinct transmission of DENV/ZIKV and CHIKV during the period of their co-circulation. Significant spatial clustering of viruses of the same type was observed within 14-day time intervals at distances of up to 6.8 km (p<0.05). These results suggest that arbovirus risk is not uniformly distributed within cities during co-circulation. Findings may guide outbreak preparedness and response efforts by highlighting the clustered nature of transmission of co-circulating arboviruses at the neighborhood level. The potential for competitive interactions between the arboviruses should be further investigated.

Spatio-temporal co-occurrence of hotspots of tuberculosis, poverty and air pollution in Lima, Peru

Growing evidence suggests pollution and other environmental factors have a role in the development of tuberculosis (TB), however, such studies have never been conducted in Peru. Considering the association between air pollution and specific geographic areas, our objective was to determine the spatial distribution and clustering of TB incident cases in Lima and their co-occurrence with clusters of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and poverty. We found co-occurrences of clusters of elevated concentrations of air pollutants such as PM2.5, high poverty indexes, and high TB incidence in Lima. These findings suggest an interplay of socio-economic and environmental in driving TB incidence.

First report of Aedes albopictus infected by Dengue and Zika virus in a rural outbreak in Brazil

In Brazil, Dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses are reported as being transmitted exclusively by Aedes aegypti in urban settings. This study established the vectors and viruses involved in an arbovirus outbreak that occurred in 2019 in a rural area of Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Mosquitoes collected were morphologically identified, sorted in samples, and submitted to molecular analysis for arboviruses detection. Phylogenetic reconstruction was performed for the viral sequence obtained. All 393 mosquitoes were identified as Aedes albopictus. DENV-1 genotype V was present in one sample and another sample was positive for ZIKV. The DENV-1 clustered with viruses that have circulated in previous years in large urban centers of different regions in Brazil. This is the first report of A. albopictus infected by DENV and ZIKV during an outbreak in a rural area in Brazil, indicating its involvement in arboviral transmission. The DENV-1 strain found in the A. albopictus was not new in Brazil, being involved previously in epidemics related to A. aegypti, suggesting the potential to A. albopictus in transmitting viruses already circulating in the Brazilian population. This finding also indicates the possibility of these viruses to disperse across urban and rural settings, imposing additional challenges for the control of the diseases.

Zika Virus Infection in Pregnant Women, Yucatan, Mexico

Infection was associated with a high incidence of symptomatic disease but no congenital syndrome.

We report demographic, epidemiologic, and clinical findings for a prospective cohort of pregnant women during the initial phase of Zika virus introduction into Yucatan, Mexico. We monitored 115 pregnant women for signs of active or recent Zika virus infection. The estimated cumulative incidence of Zika virus infection was 0.31 and the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases was 1.7 (range 1.3–4.0 depending on age group). Exanthema was the most sensitive clinical sign but also the least specific. Conjunctival hyperemia, joint edema, and exanthema were the combination of signs that had the highest specificity but low sensitivity. We did not find evidence of vertical transmission or fetal anomalies, likely because of the low number of pregnant women tested. We also did not find evidence of congenital disease. Our findings emphasize the limited predictive value of clinical features in areas where Zika virus cocirculates with other flaviviruses.

Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly owing to competition between viruses for host resources, depletion of susceptible population, different introduction times and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Simultaneous clusters of the three diseases usually included neighbourhoods with high population density and low socioeconomic status, particularly in the North region of the city. The use of space–time cluster detection can guide intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner, to improve clinical diagnosis and management, and pinpoint vector-control measures.

Contrasting the value of targeted versus area-wide mosquito control scenarios to limit arbovirus transmission with human mobility patterns based on different tropical urban population centers

Vector control is still our primary intervention for both prevention and mitigation of epidemics of many vector-borne diseases. Efficiently targeting control measures is important since control can involve substantial economic costs. Targeting is not always straightforward, as transmission of vector-borne diseases is affected by various types of host movement. Here we assess how taking daily commuting patterns into consideration can help improve vector control efforts. We examine three tropical urban centers (San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta) that have recently been exposed to Zika and/or dengue infections and consider whether the distribution of human populations and resulting commuting flows affects the optimal scale at which control interventions should be implemented. We developed a stochastic, spatial model and investigated four control scenarios. The scenarios differed in the spatial extent of their implementation and were: 1) a response at the level of an individual neighborhood; 2) a response targeted at a neighborhood in which infected humans were detected and the one with which it was most strongly connected by human movement; 3) a limited area-wide response where all neighborhoods within a certain radius of the focal area were included; and 4) a collective response where all participating neighborhoods implemented control. The relative effectiveness of the scenarios varied only slightly between different settings, with the number of infections averted over time increasing with the scale of implementation. This difference depended on the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level. At low levels of efficacy, the scenarios mirrored each other in infections averted. At high levels of efficacy, impact increased with the scale of the intervention. As a result, the choice between scenarios will not only be a function of the amount of effort decision-makers are willing to invest, but largely epend on the overall effectiveness of vector control approaches.

Control and prevention of Aedes-transmitted viruses, such as dengue, chikungunya, or Zika relies heavily on vector control approaches. Given the effort and cost involved in implementation of vector control, targeting of control measures is highly desirable. However, it is unclear to what extent the effectiveness of highly focal and reactive control measures depends on the commuting and movement patterns of humans. To investigate this question, we developed a model and four control scenarios that ranged from highly focal to area-wide larval control. The distribution of humans and their commuting patterns were modelled after three major tropical urban centers, San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta. We show that as implementation is applied across a wider area, a greater number of infections is averted. Critically, this only occurs if the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level is sufficiently high. A consistent outcome across the three settings was that the focal strategy was most likely to provide the best outcome at lower levels of effort, and when the efficacy of control was low. These outcomes suggest that optimal control strategies will likely have to be tailored to individual settings by decision makers and would benefit from localized cost-effectiveness modelling studies.

Citywide Control of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) during the 2016 Zika Epidemic by Integrating Community Awareness, Education, Source Reduction, Larvicides, and Mass Mosquito Trapping

This investigation was initiated to control Aedes aegypti and Zika virus transmission in Caguas City, Puerto Rico, during the 2016 epidemic using Integrated Vector Management (IVM), which included community awareness and education, source reduction, larviciding, and mass-trapping with autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO). The epidemic peaked in August to October 2016 and waned after April 2017. There was a preintervention period in October/November 2016 and IVM lasted until August 2017. The area under treatment (23.1 km2) had 61,511 inhabitants and 25,363 buildings. The city was divided into eight even clusters and treated following a cluster randomized stepped-wedge design. We analyzed pools of female Ae. aegypti adults for RNA detection of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses using 360 surveillance AGO traps every week. Rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were monitored in each cluster. Mosquito density significantly changed (generalized linear mixed model; F8, 14,588 = 296; P < 0.001) from 8.0 ± 0.1 females per trap per week before the intervention to 2.1 ± 0.04 after the percentage of buildings treated with traps was 60% and to 1.4 ± 0.04 when coverage was above 80%. Out of a total 12,081 mosquito pools, there were 1 DENV-, 7 CHIKV-, and 49 ZIKV-positive pools from October 2016 to March 2017. Afterward, we found only one positive pool of DENV in July 2017. This investigation demonstrated that it was possible to scale up effective Ae. aegypti control to a medium-size city through IVM that included mass trapping of gravid Ae. aegypti females.

Vertically transmitted chikungunya, Zika and dengue virus infections: The pathogenesis from mother to fetus and the implications of co-infections and vaccine development

Chikungunya (CHIKV), Zika (ZIKV), and Dengue viruses (DENV) exhibit similar epidemiological and clinical patterns but have different pathophysiological mechanisms of disease manifestations. Differences occur in the severity of clinical presentations with the highest mortality in the general population attributed to DENV and neurological morbidity due to ZIKV. ZIKV and DENV infections can cause fetal loss with ZIKV exhibiting teratogenesis. CHIKV is associated with severe complications in the newborn. Co-circulation of the three viruses and the cross-reactive immune response between ZIKV and DENV viruses has implications for an attenuated clinical response and future vaccine development. Co-infections could increase due to the epidemiologic synergy, but there is limited evidence about the clinical effects, especially for the vulnerable newborn. The purpose of this paper is to review the pathophysiological basis for vertically transmission manifestations due to CHIKV, DENV, and ZIKV, to determine the potential effects of co-circulation on newborn outcomes and the potential for vaccine protection. Inflammatory cytokines are responsible for placental breaches in DENV and ZIKV; Hofbauer cells facilitate the transfer of ZIKV from the placenta to the fetal brain, and high viral loads and mechanical placental disruption facilitate the transmission of CHIKV. Co-infection of these viruses can present with severe manifestations, but the clinical and serologic evidence suggests that one virus predominates which may influence fetal transmission. All three viruses are in different stages of vaccine development with DENV vaccine being fully licensed. Antibody-enhanced infections in seronegative vaccinated candidates who develop natural infection to dengue limit its use and have implications for ZIKV vaccine development. Targeting transmission capacity in the vector could prevent transmission to all three viruses, and breast milk immunity could provide further clues for vaccine development.

Estimating absolute indoor density of Aedes aegypti using removal sampling

BACKGROUND

Quantification of adult Aedes aegypti abundance indoors has relied on estimates of relative density (e.g. number of adults per unit of sampling or time), most commonly using traps or timed collections using aspirators. The lack of estimates of the sensitivity of collections and lack of a numerical association between relative and the absolute density of adult Ae. aegypti represent a significant gap in vector surveillance. Here, we describe the use of sequential removal sampling to estimate absolute numbers of indoor resting Ae. aegypti and to calculate calibration coefficients for timed Prokopack aspirator collections in the city of Merida, Yucatan State, Mexico. The study was performed in 200 houses that were selected based on recent occurrence of Aedes-borne viral illness in residents. Removal sampling occurred in 10-minute sampling rounds performed sequentially until no Ae. aegypti adult was collected for 3 hours or over 2 consecutive 10-minute periods.

RESULTS

A total of 3439 Ae. aegypti were collected. The sensitivity of detection of positive houses in the first sampling round was 82.5% for any adult Ae. aegypti, 78.5% for females, 75.5% for males and 73.3% for blood-fed females. The total number of Ae. aegypti per house was on average ~5 times higher than numbers collected for the first sampling round. There was a positive linear relationship between the relative density of Ae. aegypti collected during the first 10-min round and the absolute density for all adult metrics. Coefficients from the linear regression were used to calibrate numbers from 10-min collections into estimates of absolute indoor Ae. aegypti density for all adults, females and males.

CONCLUSIONS

Exhaustive removal sampling represents a promising method for quantification of absolute indoor Ae. aegypti density, leading to improved entomological estimates of mosquito distribution, a key measure in the assessments of the risk pathogen transmission, disease modeling and the evaluation of vector control interventions.