West Nile virus in California, 2003-2018: A persistent threat

Exploring the role of temperature and other environmental factors in West Nile virus incidence and prediction in California counties from 2017-2022 using a zero-inflated model

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in the United States, resulting in hundreds of reported cases yearly in California alone. The transmission cycle occurs mostly in birds and mosquitoes, making meteorological conditions, such as temperature, especially important to transmission characteristics. Given that future increases in temperature are all but inevitable due to worldwide climate change, determining associations between temperature and WNV incidence in humans, as well as making predictions on future cases, are important to public health agencies in California. Using surveillance data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and vector and host data from VectorSurv, we created GEE autoregressive and zero-inflated regression models to determine the role of temperature and other environmental factors in WNV incidence and predictions. An increase in temperature was found to be associated with an increase in incidence in 11 high-burden Californian counties between 2017-2022 (IRR = 1.06), holding location, time of year, and rainfall constant. A hypothetical increase of two degrees Fahrenheit-predicted for California by 2040-would have resulted in upwards of 20 excess cases per year during our study period. Using 2017-2021 as a training set, meteorological and host/vector data were able to closely predict 2022 incidence, though the models did overestimate the peak number of cases. The zero-inflated model closely predicted the low number of cases in winter months but performed worse than the GEE model during high-transmission periods. These findings suggests that climate change will, and may be already, altering transmission dynamics and incidence of WNV in California, and provides tools to help predict incidence into the future.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of West Nile Virus emergence in California, 2004-2021

AIMS

West Nile Virus (WNV) has remained a persistent source of vector-borne disease risk in California since first being identified in the state in 2003. The geographic distribution of WNV activity is relatively widespread, but varies considerably across different regions within the state. Spatial variation in human WNV infection depends upon social-ecological factors that influence mosquito populations and virus transmission dynamics. Measuring changes in spatial patterns over time is necessary for uncovering the underlying regional drivers of disease risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we utilized statewide surveillance data to quantify temporal changes and spatial patterns of WNV activity in California. We obtained annual WNV mosquito surveillance data from 2004 through 2021 from the California Arbovirus Surveillance Program. Geographic coordinates for mosquito pools were analysed using a suite of spatial statistics to identify and classify patterns in WNV activity over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected clear patterns of non-random WNV risk during the study period, including emerging hot spots in the Central Valley and non-random periods of oscillating WNV risk in Southern and Northern California subregions. Our findings offer new insights into 18 years of spatio-temporal variation in WNV activity across California, which may be used for targeted surveillance efforts and public health interventions.

Epidemic versus endemic West Nile virus dead bird surveillance in California: Changes in sensitivity and focus

Since 2003, the California West Nile virus (WNV) dead bird surveillance program (DBSP) has monitored publicly reported dead birds for WNV surveillance and response. In the current paper, we compared DBSP data from early epidemic years (2004-2006) with recent endemic years (2018-2020), with a focus on specimen collection criteria, county report incidence, bird species selection, WNV prevalence in dead birds, and utility of the DBSP as an early environmental indicator of WNV. Although fewer agencies collected dead birds in recent years, most vector control agencies with consistent WNV activity continued to use dead birds as a surveillance tool, with streamlined operations enhancing efficiency. The number of dead bird reports was approximately ten times greater during 2004-2006 compared to 2018-2020, with reports from the Central Valley and portions of Southern California decreasing substantially in recent years; reports from the San Francisco Bay Area decreased less dramatically. Seven of ten counties with high numbers of dead bird reports were also high human WNV case burden areas. Dead corvid, sparrow, and quail reports decreased the most compared to other bird species reports. West Nile virus positive dead birds were the most frequent first indicators of WNV activity by county in 2004-2006, followed by positive mosquitoes; in contrast, during 2018-2020 mosquitoes were the most frequent first indicators followed by dead birds, and initial environmental WNV detections occurred later in the season during 2018-2020. Evidence for WNV impacts on avian populations and susceptibility are discussed. Although patterns of dead bird reports and WNV prevalence in tested dead birds have changed, dead birds have endured as a useful element within our multi-faceted WNV surveillance program.

Stability of patch-turnover relationships under equilibrium and nonequilibrium metapopulation dynamics driven by biogeography

Two controversial tenets of metapopulation biology are whether patch quality and the surrounding matrix are more important to turnover (colonisation and extinction) than biogeography (patch area and isolation) and whether factors governing turnover during equilibrium also dominate nonequilibrium dynamics. We tested both tenets using 18 years of surveys for two secretive wetland birds, black and Virginia rails, during (1) a period of equilibrium with stable occupancy and (2) after drought and arrival of West Nile Virus (WNV), which resulted in WNV infections in rails, increased extinction and decreased colonisation probabilities modified by WNV, nonequilibrium dynamics for both species and occupancy decline for black rails. Area (primarily) and isolation (secondarily) drove turnover during both stable and unstable metapopulation dynamics, greatly exceeding the effects of patch quality and matrix conditions. Moreover, slopes between turnover and patch characteristics changed little between equilibrium and nonequilibrium, confirming the overriding influences of biogeographic factors on turnover.

Epidemiologic and environmental characterization of the Re-emergence of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus in California, 2015-2020

St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) is an endemic flavivirus in the western and southeastern United States, including California. From 1938 to 2003, the virus was detected annually in California, but after West Nile virus (WNV) arrived in 2003, SLEV was not detected again until it re-emerged in Riverside County in 2015. The re-emerging virus in California and other areas of the western US is SLEV genotype III, which previously had been detected only in Argentina, suggesting a South American origin. This study describes SLEV activity in California since its re-emergence in 2015 and compares it to WNV activity during the same period. From 2015 to 2020, SLEV was detected in 1,650 mosquito pools and 26 sentinel chickens, whereas WNV was detected concurrently in 18,108 mosquito pools and 1,542 sentinel chickens from the same samples. There were 24 reported human infections of SLEV in 10 California counties, including two fatalities (case fatality rate: 8%), compared to 2,469 reported human infections of WNV from 43 California counties, with 143 fatalities (case fatality rate: 6%). From 2015 through 2020, SLEV was detected in 17 (29%) of California's 58 counties, while WNV was detected in 54 (93%). Although mosquitoes and sentinel chickens have been tested routinely for arboviruses in California for over fifty years, surveillance has not been uniform throughout the state. Of note, since 2005 there has been a steady decline in the use of sentinel chickens among vector control agencies, potentially contributing to gaps in SLEV surveillance. The incidence of SLEV disease in California may have been underestimated because human surveillance for SLEV relied on an environmental detection to trigger SLEV patient screening and mosquito surveillance effort is spatially variable. In addition, human diagnostic testing usually relies on changes in host antibodies and SLEV infection can be indistinguishable from infection with other flaviviruses such as WNV, which is more prevalent.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the California mosquito-borne virus surveillance & response plan, 2009–2018

Local vector control and public health agencies in California use the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan to monitor and evaluate West Nile virus (WNV) activity and guide responses to reduce the burden of WNV disease. All available data from environmental surveillance, such as the abundance and WNV infection rates in Culex tarsalis and the Culex pipiens complex mosquitoes, the numbers of dead birds, seroconversions in sentinel chickens, and ambient air temperatures, are fed into a formula to estimate the risk level and associated risk of human infections. In many other areas of the US, the vector index, based only on vector mosquito abundance and infection rates, is used by vector control programs to estimate the risk of human WNV transmission. We built models to determine the association between risk level and the number of reported symptomatic human disease cases with onset in the following three weeks to identify the essential components of the risk level and to compare California’s risk estimates to vector index. Risk level calculations based on Cx. tarsalis and Cx. pipiens complex levels were significantly associated with increased human risk, particularly when accounting for vector control area and population, and were better predictors than using vector index. Including all potential environmental components created an effective tool to estimate the risk of WNV transmission to humans in California.

Development of a Community-Driven Mosquito Surveillance Program for Vectors of La Crosse Virus to Educate, Inform, and Empower a Community

The fields of entomology, geospatial science, and science communication are understaffed in many areas, resulting in poor community awareness and heightened risks of vector-borne diseases. This is especially true in East Tennessee, where La Crosse encephalitis (LACE) causes pediatric illness each year. In response to these problems, we created a community engagement program that includes a yearlong academy for secondary STEM educators in the 6-12 grade classroom. The objectives of this program were to support inquiry-driven classroom learning to foster student interest in STEM fields, produce community-driven mosquito surveillance, and enhance community awareness of LACE. We trained educators in medical entomology, geospatial science, and science communication, and they incorporated those skills into lesson plans for a mosquito oviposition experiment that tested hypotheses developed in the classroom. Here, we share results from the first two years of the MEGA:BITESS academy, tailored for our community by having students ask questions directly related to Aedes mosquito oviposition biology and La Crosse encephalitis. In year one, we recruited 17 educators to participate in the project, and 15 of those educators returned in year two. All participating educators completed the academy, conducted the oviposition experiment, and informed over 400 students about a variety of careers and disciplines for their students. Here, we present a community-based program that helps to address the problems associated with long-term mosquito surveillance, health and science education and communication, career opportunities, and the community needs of Appalachia, as well as the initial data on the effectiveness of two years of an educator-targeted professional-development program.

Detection and Establishment of Aedes notoscriptus (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes in Southern California, United States

Aedes notoscriptus (Skuse), the Australian backyard mosquito, is a pestiferous daytime-biting species native to Australia and the surrounding southwestern Pacific region. It is suspected to play a role in the transmission of several arboviruses and is considered a competent vector of dog heartworm, Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy). This highly adaptable mosquito thrives in natural and artificial water-holding containers in both forested and urbanized areas, from tropical to temperate climates, and has benefitted from a close association with humans, increasing in abundance within its native range. It invaded and successfully established in New Zealand as well as in previously unoccupied temperate and arid regions of Australia. Ae. notoscriptus was discovered in Los Angeles County, CA, in 2014, marking the first time this species had been found outside the southwestern Pacific region. By the end of 2019, immature and adult mosquitoes had been collected from 364 unique locations within 44 cities spanning three southern California counties. The discovery, establishment, and rapid spread of this species in urban areas may signal the global movement and advent of a new invasive container-inhabiting species. The biting nuisance, public health, and veterinary health implications associated with the invasion of southern California by this mosquito are discussed.

A panel of real-time PCR assays for the detection of Bourbon virus, Heartland virus, West Nile virus, and Trypanosoma cruzi in major disease-transmitting vectors

Vector-borne pathogens, such as Bourbon virus (BRBV), Heartland virus (HRTV), West Nile virus (WNV), and Trypanosoma cruzi (TCZ) are a great threat to public health and animal health. We developed a panel of TaqMan real-time PCR assays for pathogen surveillance. PCR targets were selected based on nucleic acid sequences deposited in GenBank. Primers and probes were either designed de novo or selected from publications. The coverages and specificities of the primers and probes were extensively evaluated by performing BLAST searches. Synthetic DNA or RNA fragments (gBlocks) were used as PCR templates in initial assay development and PCR positive controls in subsequent assay validation. For operational efficiency, the same thermocycling profile was used in BRBV, HRTV, and WNV reverse-transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assays, and a similar thermocycling profile without the initial reverse-transcription step was used in TCZ qPCR. The assays were optimized by titrating primer and probe concentrations. The analytical sensitivities were 100, 100, 10, and 10 copies of gBlock per reaction for BRBV (Cq = 36.0 ± 0.7), HRTV (Cq = 36.6 ± 0.9), WNV (Cq = 35.5 ± 0.4), and TCZ (Cq = 38.8 ± 0.3), respectively. PCR sensitivities for vector genomic DNA or RNA spiked with gBlock reached 100, 100, 10, and 10 copies per reaction for BRBV, HRTV, WNV, and TCZ, respectively. PCR specificity evaluated against a panel of non-target pathogens showed no significant cross-reactivity. Our BRBV, HRTV, WNV, and TCZ PCR panel could support epidemiologic studies and pathogen surveillance.

Characterizing Areas with Increased Burden of West Nile Virus Disease in California, 2009-2018

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that can cause severe neurological disease in humans, for which there is no treatment or vaccine. From 2009 to 2018, California has reported more human disease cases than any other state in the United States. We sought to identify smaller geographic areas within the 10 California counties with the highest number of WNV cases that accounted for disproportionately large numbers of human cases from 2009 to 2018. Eleven areas, consisting of groups of high-burden ZIP codes, were identified in nine counties within southern California and California's Central Valley. Despite containing only 2% of California's area and 17% of the state's population, these high-burden ZIP codes accounted for 44% of WNV cases reported and had a mean annual incidence that was 2.4 times the annual state incidence. Focusing mosquito control and public education efforts in these areas would lower WNV disease burden.

A Review: Aedes-Borne Arboviral Infections, Controls and Wolbachia-Based Strategies

Arthropod-borne viruses (Arboviruses) continue to generate significant health and economic burdens for people living in endemic regions. Of these viruses, some of the most important (e.g., dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever virus), are transmitted mainly by Aedes mosquitoes. Over the years, viral infection control has targeted vector population reduction and inhibition of arboviral replication and transmission. This control includes the vector control methods which are classified into chemical, environmental, and biological methods. Some of these control methods may be largely experimental (both field and laboratory investigations) or widely practised. Perceptively, one of the biological methods of vector control, in particular, Wolbachia-based control, shows a promising control strategy for eradicating Aedes-borne arboviruses. This can either be through the artificial introduction of Wolbachia, a naturally present bacterium that impedes viral growth in mosquitoes into heterologous Aedes aegypti mosquito vectors (vectors that are not natural hosts of Wolbachia) thereby limiting arboviral transmission or via Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, which naturally harbour Wolbachia infection. These strategies are potentially undermined by the tendency of mosquitoes to lose Wolbachia infection in unfavourable weather conditions (e.g., high temperature) and the inhibitory competitive dynamics among co-circulating Wolbachia strains. The main objective of this review was to critically appraise published articles on vector control strategies and specifically highlight the use of Wolbachia-based control to suppress vector population growth or disrupt viral transmission. We retrieved studies on the control strategies for arboviral transmissions via arthropod vectors and discussed the use of Wolbachia control strategies for eradicating arboviral diseases to identify literature gaps that will be instrumental in developing models to estimate the impact of these control strategies and, in essence, the use of different Wolbachia strains and features.