Development of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) score among young children with respiratory infections in South Africa

Heparin-Binding Protein Stratifies Mortality Risk Among Ugandan Children Hospitalized With Respiratory Distress

Background

Current prognostic tools do not reliably and objectively identify children with pneumonia at risk of a severe or life-threatening episode. Heparin-binding protein (HBP) is a host immune protein that is released in response to infection. We hypothesized that measuring HBP concentrations at hospital admission could help risk-stratify children with pneumonia and identify those at higher risk of an adverse prognosis.

Methods

We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of HBP for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with respiratory distress, and whether HBP could improve the accuracy of validated composite clinical severity scores.

Results

Of 778 Ugandan children under 5 years of age and presenting with clinically defined pneumonia, 60 (7.7%) died during hospital admission. HBP concentrations at presentation were significantly higher in children with fatal outcomes (median, 76 ng/mL [interquartile range {IQR}, 41-150]) compared to children who survived (median, 31 ng/mL [IQR, 18-57]) (P < .001). Children with HBP >41 ng/mL on admission had an elevated risk of death (hazard ratio, 5.3 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.9-9.5]; P < .0001). In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, HBP concentrations distinguished between fatal and nonfatal outcomes (area under the ROC curve, 0.75 [95% CI, .66-.84]) and significantly improved the prediction provided by the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children, a composite clinical severity score (P = .0026).

Conclusions

Measuring HBP at presentation could help identify children at risk of severe and fatal pneumonia. Adding HBP to clinical scores could improve the recognition and triage of children with pneumonia at risk of death.

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Novel Risk Assessment Tool to Identify Infants and Young Children at Risk for Post-Discharge Mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate internally a novel risk assessment tool to identify young children at risk for all-cause mortality ≤60 days of discharge from hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a prospective observational cohort study of children aged 1-59 months discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia (2019-2022). Caregivers received telephone calls up to 60 days after discharge to ascertain participant vital status. We collected socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data during hospitalization. Candidate variables with P < .20 in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariable logistic regression model with best subset selection to identify risk factors for the outcome. We internally validated our tool using bootstrapping with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 1933 young children enrolled in the study. The median (IQR) age was 11 (4, 23) months and 58.7% were males. In total, 67 (3.5%) died during follow-up. Ten variables contributed to our tool (total possible score 82). Cancer (aOR 10.6, 95% CI 2.58, 34.6), pedal edema (aOR 6.94, 95% CI 1.69, 22.6), and leaving against medical advice (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 2.46, 15.3) were most predictive of post-discharge mortality. Our risk assessment tool demonstrated good discriminatory value (optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77), high precision, and sufficient calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

After validation, this tool may be used to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality to direct resources for follow-up of high-risk children.

Machine learning models to evaluate mortality in pediatric patients with pneumonia in the intensive care unit

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to predict mortality in children with pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) to aid decision-making.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study conducted at a single tertiary hospital.

PATIENTS

This study included children who were admitted to the pediatric ICU at the National Taiwan University Hospital between 2010 and 2019 due to pneumonia.

METHODOLOGY

Two prediction models were developed using tree-structured machine learning algorithms. The primary outcomes were ICU mortality and 24-h ICU mortality. A total of 33 features, including demographics, underlying diseases, vital signs, and laboratory data, were collected from the electronic health records. The machine learning models were constructed using the development data set, and performance matrices were computed using the holdout test data set.

RESULTS

A total of 1231 ICU admissions of children with pneumonia were included in the final cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the ICU mortality model and 24-h ICU mortality models was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.91) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92), respectively. Based on feature importance, the model developed in this study tended to predict increased mortality for the subsequent 24 h if a reduction in the blood pressure, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2), or higher partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO2) were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the machine learning models for predicting ICU mortality and 24-h ICU mortality in children with pneumonia have the potential to support decision-making, especially in resource-limited settings.

Alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient: An early marker to predict the severity of community-acquired pneumonia in children

To study the clinical significance of alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient (PA-aO2) for children with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective study was carried out from January 2020 to June 2023, Overall, 100 patients were included in the study, 35 had severe pneumonia, whereas, 65 had non-severe pneumonia. Clinical and laboratory data were retrospectively collected at the time of hospital admission and during hospitalization. Patients were divided into severe and non-severe groups. PA-aO2 was significantly higher among children with severe pneumonia, as determined by WHO, PRESS (P < .001). PA-aO2 was significantly higher among children with mechanical ventilation, shock, sepsis, and mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis for PA-aO2 showed that the area under the curve was 0.76 (P value < .05), with a sensitivity of 84.3% and a specificity of 67.9%. Our study suggests that PA-aO2 level has a predictive value for detecting community-acquired pneumonia severity in children.

Solar-powered O2 delivery for the treatment of children with hypoxaemia in Uganda: a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Supplemental O2 is not always available at health facilities in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Solar-powered O2 delivery can overcome gaps in O2 access, generating O2 independent of grid electricity. We hypothesized that installation of solar-powered O2 systems on the paediatrics ward of rural Ugandan hospitals would lead to a reduction in mortality among hypoxaemic children.

METHODS

In this pragmatic, country-wide, stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial, solar-powered O2 systems (ie, photovoltaic cells, battery bank, and O2 concentrator) were sequentially installed at 20 rural health facilities in Uganda. Sites were selected for inclusion based on the following criteria: District Hospital or Health Centre IV with paediatric inpatient services; supplemental O2 on the paediatric ward was not available or was unreliable; and adequate space to install solar panels, a battery bank, and electrical wiring. Allocation concealment was achieved for sites up to 2 weeks before installation, but the study was not masked overall. Children younger than 5 years admitted to hospital with hypoxaemia and respiratory signs were included. The primary outcome was mortality within 48 h of detection of hypoxaemia. The statistical analysis used a linear mixed effects logistic regression model accounting for cluster as random effect and calendar time as fixed effect. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03851783.

FINDINGS

Between June 28, 2019, and Nov 30, 2021, 2409 children were enrolled across 20 hospitals and, after exclusions, 2405 children were analysed. 964 children were enrolled before site randomisation and 1441 children were enrolled after site randomisation (intention to treat). There were 104 deaths, 91 of which occurred within 48 h of detection of hypoxaemia. The 48 h mortality was 49 (5·1%) of 964 children before randomisation and 42 (2·9%) of 1440 (one individual did not have vital status documented at 48 h) after randomisation (adjusted odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·27-0·91, p=0·023). Results were sensitive to alternative parameterisations of the secular trend. There was a relative risk reduction of 48·7% (95% CI 8·5-71·5), and a number needed to treat with solar-powered O2 of 45 (95% CI 28-230) to save one life. Use of O2 increased from 484 (50·2%) of 964 children before randomisation to 1424 (98·8%) of 1441 children after randomisation (p<0·0001). Adverse events were similar before and after randomisation and were not considered to be related to the intervention. The estimated cost-effectiveness was US$25 (6-505) per disability-adjusted life-year saved.

INTERPRETATION

This stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial shows the mortality benefit of improving O2 access with solar-powered O2. This study could serve as a model for scale-up of solar-powered O2 as one solution to O2 insecurity in LMICs.

FUNDING

Grand Challenges Canada and The Women and Children's Health Research Institute.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

The value of lung ultrasound score in neonatal respiratory distress syndrome: a prospective diagnostic cohort study

Rationale

The accurate diagnosis of critically ill patients with respiratory failure can be achieved through lung ultrasound (LUS) score. Considering its characteristics, it is speculated that this technique might also be useful for patients with neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS). Thus, there is a need for precise imaging tools to monitor such patients.

Objectives

This double-blind randomized cohort study aims to investigate the impact of LUS and related scores on the severity of NRDS patients.

Methods

This study was conducted as a prospective double-blind randomized study. Bivariate correlation analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between LUS score and Oxygenation Index (OI), Respiratory Index (RI), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to generate correlation heat maps, elucidating the associations between LUS and respective parameters in different cohorts. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to calculate the predictive values, sensitivity, and specificity of different scores in determining the severity of NRDS.

Results

This study ultimately included 134 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) between December 2020 and June 2022. Among these patients, 72 were included in the NRDS cohort, while 62 were included in the Non-NRDS (N-NRDS) cohort. There were significant differences in the mean LUS scores between NRDS and N-NRDS patients (p < 0.01). The LUS score was significantly negatively correlated with the OI (p < 0.01), while it was significantly positively correlated with the RI and SOFA scores (p < 0.01). The correlation heatmap revealed the highest positive correlation coefficient between LUS and RI (0.82), while the highest negative correlation coefficient was observed between LUS and OI (-0.8). ROC curves for different scores demonstrated that LUS score had the highest area under the curve (0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98) in predicting the severity of patients' conditions. The combination of LUS and other scores can more accurately predict the severity of NRDS patients, with the highest AUC value of 0.93, significantly higher than using a single indicator alone (p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Our double-blind randomized cohort study demonstrates that LUS, RI, OI, and SOFA scores can effectively monitor the lung ventilation and function in NRDS. Moreover, these parameters and their combination have significant predictive value in evaluating the severity and prognosis of NRDS patients. Therefore, these results provide crucial insights for future research endeavors.

Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

ABSTRACT

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common cause of childhood mortality globally. In the United States, CAP is a leading cause of pediatric hospitalization and antibiotic use and is associated with substantial morbidity. There has been a dramatic shift in microbiological etiologies for CAP in children over time as pneumococcal pneumonia has become less common and viral etiologies have become predominant. There is no commonly agreed on approach to the diagnosis of CAP in children. When indicated, antimicrobial treatment should consist of narrow-spectrum antibiotics. In this article, we will describe the current understanding of the microbiological etiologies, clinical presentation, diagnostic approach, risk factors, treatment, and future directions in the diagnosis and management of pediatric CAP.

External validation of clinical severity scores to guide referral of paediatric acute respiratory infections in resource-limited primary care settings

Accurate and reliable guidelines for referral of children from resource-limited primary care settings are lacking. We identified three practicable paediatric severity scores (the Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA), the quick Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2, and the modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) and externally validated their performance in young children presenting with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to a primary care clinic located within a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. This secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal birth cohort study consisted of 3010 ARI presentations in children aged ≤ 24 months. The primary outcome was receipt of supplemental oxygen. We externally validated the discrimination, calibration, and net-benefit of the scores, and quantified gains in performance that might be expected if they were deployed as simple clinical prediction models, and updated to include nutritional status and respiratory distress. 104/3,010 (3.5%) presentations met the primary outcome. The LqSOFA score demonstrated the best discrimination (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89) and achieved a sensitivity and specificity > 0.80. Converting the scores into clinical prediction models improved performance, resulting in ~ 20% fewer unnecessary referrals and ~ 30-50% fewer children incorrectly managed in the community. The LqSOFA score is a promising triage tool for young children presenting with ARIs in resource-limited primary care settings. Where feasible, deploying the score as a simple clinical prediction model might enable more accurate and nuanced risk stratification, increasing applicability across a wider range of contexts.

Clinical features and risk factors analysis for poor outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia in children: a nomogram prediction model

Background

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death among children aged 1-59 months. The early prediction of poor outcomes (PO) is of critical concern. This study aimed to explore the risk factors relating to PO in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and build a PO-predictive nomogram model for children with SCAP.

Methods

We retrospectively identified 300 Chinese pediatric patients diagnosed with SCAP who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from August 1, 2018, to October 31, 2021. Children were divided into the PO and the non-PO groups. The occurrence of PO was designated as the dependent variable. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors of PO. A nomogram model was constructed from the multivariate logistic regression analysis and internally validated for model discrimination and calibration. The performance of the nomogram was estimated using the concordance index (C-index).

Results

According to the efficacy evaluation criteria, 56 of 300 children demonstrated PO. The multivariate logistic regression analysis resulted in the following independent risk factors for PO: co-morbidity (OR: 8.032, 95% CI: 3.556-18.140, P < 0.0001), requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (OR: 7.081, 95% CI: 2.250-22.282, P = 0.001), and ALB < 35 g/L (OR: 3.203, 95% CI: 1.151-8.912, P = 0.026). Results of the internal validation confirmed that the model provided good discrimination (concordance index [C-index], 0.876 [95% CI: 0.828-0.925]). The calibration plots in the nomogram model were of high quality.

Conclusion

The nomogram facilitated accurate prediction of PO in children diagnosed with SCAP and could be helpful for clinical decision-making.

Feasibility and acceptability of the paediatric pulse oximeter in integrated management of neonatal and childhood illnesses (IMNCI) services by public health facilities: A qualitative study in rural Western India

Background

Pneumonia contributes to about 15% of child deaths globally, with 20% of the overall deaths occurring in India. Although WHO recommends the use of pulse oximeters (PO) in first-level facilities for early detection of child pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), this has not yet been implemented in India. We aimed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of introducing PO in integrated management of neonatal and childhood illnesses (IMNCI) services at primary health centres (PHC) in the rural Pune district.

Methods

We identified medical officers (MO) and auxiliary nurse midwives (ANM) from six PHCs as study participants due to their involvement in the treatment of children. We developed in-depth interview (IDI) guides for both groups to explore their IMNCI knowledge and attitude towards the program through a qualitative study. We conducted interviews with MOs (n = 6) and ANMs (n = 6) from each PHC. The PO module was added to explore perceptions about its usefulness in diagnosing pneumonia. After baseline assessment, we conducted training sessions on adapted IMNCI services (including PO use) for MOs and ANMs. PO devices were provided at the study PHCs.

Results

At baseline, no PO devices were being used at study PHCs; PHC staff demonstrated satisfactory knowledge about paediatric pneumonia management and demanded refresher IMNCI training. They also felt the need to reiterate the PO use for early diagnosis of pneumonia in children and highlighted the challenges encountered in managing pneumonia at PHCs, such as health system-related challenges and parents' attitudes towards care seeking. There was positive acceptance of training and PO started to be used immediately in PHCs. There was increased confidence in using PO at endline. PO use in examining symptomatic children increased from 26 to 85%.

Conclusions

Paediatric PO implementation could be integrated successfully at PHC levels; we found pre-implementation training and provision of PO to PHCs to be helpful in achieving this goal. This intervention demonstrated that an algorithm to diagnose pneumonia in children that included PO could improve case management.

Predicting Clinical Deterioration and Mortality at Differing Stages During Hospitalization: A Systematic Review of Risk Prediction Models in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

OBJECTIVE

To determine which risk prediction model best predicts clinical deterioration in children at different stages of hospital admission in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

For this systematic review, Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched, and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. The key search terms were "development or validation study with risk-prediction model" AND "deterioration or mortality" AND "age 0-18 years" AND "hospital-setting: emergency department (ED), pediatric ward (PW), or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU)" AND "low- and middle-income countries." The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used by two independent authors. Forest plots were used to plot area under the curve according to hospital setting. Risk prediction models used in two or more studies were included in a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We screened 9486 articles and selected 78 publications, including 67 unique predictive models comprising 1.5 million children. The best performing models individually were signs of inflammation in children that can kill (SICK) (ED), pediatric early warning signs resource limited settings (PEWS-RL) (PW), and Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) 3 as well as pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA) (PICU). Best performing models after meta-analysis were SICK (ED), pSOFA and Pediatric Early Death Index for Africa (PEDIA)-immediate score (PW), and pediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) (PICU). There was a high risk of bias in all studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified risk prediction models that best estimate deterioration, although these risk prediction models are not routinely used in low- and middle-income countries. Future studies should focus on large scale external validation with strict methodological criteria of multiple risk prediction models as well as study the barriers in the way of implementation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: Prospero ID: CRD42021210489.

Repeatability of Pulse Oximetry Measurements in Children During Triage in 2 Ugandan Hospitals

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries, health workers use pulse oximeters for intermittent spot measurements of oxygen saturation (SpO2). However, the accuracy and reliability of pulse oximeters for spot measurements have not been determined. We evaluated the repeatability of spot measurements and the ideal observation time to guide recommendations during spot check measurements.

METHODS

Two 1-minute measurements were taken for the 3,903 subjects enrolled in the study conducted April 2020-January 2022 in Uganda, collecting 1 Hz SpO2 and signal quality index (SQI) data. The repeatability between the 2 measurements was assessed using an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), calculated using a median of all seconds of non-zero SpO2 values for each recording (any quality, Q1) and again with a quality filter only using seconds with SQI 90% or higher (good quality, Q2). The ICC was also recalculated for both conditions of Q1 and Q2 using the initial 5 seconds, then the initial 10 seconds, and continuing with 5-second increments up to the full 60 seconds. Lastly, the whole minute ICC was calculated with good quality (Q2), including only records where both measurements had a mean SQI of more than 70% (Q3).

RESULTS

The repeatability ICC with condition Q1 was 0.591 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.570, 0.611). Using only the first 5 seconds of each measurement reduced the repeatability to 0.200 (95% CI=0.169, 0.230). Filtering with Q2, the whole-minute ICC was 0.855 (95% CI=0.847, 0.864). The ICC did not improve beyond the first 35 seconds. For Q3, the repeatability rose to 0.908 (95% CI=0.901, 0.914).

CONCLUSIONS

Training guidelines must emphasize the importance of signal quality and duration of measurement, targeting a minimum of 35 seconds of adequate-quality, stable data. In addition, the design of new devices should incorporate user prompts and force quality checks to encourage more accurate pulse oximetry measurements.

Pediatric prognostic models predicting inhospital child mortality in resource-limited settings: An external validation study

Background and Aims

Prognostic models provide evidence-based predictions and estimates of future outcomes, facilitating decision-making, patient care, and research. A few of these models have been externally validated, leading to uncertain reliability and generalizability. This study aims to externally validate four models to assess their transferability and usefulness in clinical practice. The models include the respiratory index of severity in children (RISC)-Malawi model and three other models by Lowlavaar et al.

Methods

The study used data from the Clinical Information Network (CIN) to validate the four models where the primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. 163,329 patients met eligibility criteria. Missing data were imputed, and the logistic function was used to compute predicted risk of in-hospital mortality. Models' discriminatory ability and calibration were determined using area under the curve (AUC), calibration slope, and intercept.

Results

The RISC-Malawi model had 50,669 pneumonia patients who met the eligibility criteria, of which the case-fatality ratio was 4406 (8.7%). Its AUC was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.77-0.78), whereas the calibration slope was 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00 -1.06), and calibration intercept was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.84). Regarding the external validation of Lowlavaar et al. models, 10,782 eligible patients  were included, with an in-hospital mortality rate of 5.3%. The primary model's AUC was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.72-0.77), the calibration slope was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84), and the calibration intercept was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.28-0.46). All models markedly underestimated the risk of mortality.

Conclusion

All externally validated models exhibited either underestimation or overestimation of the risk as judged from calibration statistics. Hence, applying these models with confidence in settings other than their original development context may not be advisable. Our findings strongly suggest the need for recalibrating these model to enhance their generalizability.

A Study of the Clinical Profile and Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) Score in Infants Admitted With Acute Respiratory Infections at a Tertiary Care Hospital

Background Pneumonia is a major infectious cause of mortality in young children worldwide. The Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) score was designed with the intent to provide an objective mean to quantify the severity of lower respiratory tract infection in young children based on their risk of mortality. Knowledge about the clinical profile of acute respiratory infections and the scoring system predicting the risk of mortality helps in modifying treatment strategies. This study was undertaken at a resource-limited, tertiary-care public hospital in southern India with the objectives of describing the clinical profile of infants admitted with acute respiratory infections and determining the association of the RISC score with mortality. Method This was a retrospective observational study conducted over six months. Case records of infants admitted with acute respiratory infections were reviewed. The socio-demographic and clinical details of each case were recorded. The RISC score was calculated using clinical parameters which included the history of refusal of feeds, oxygen saturation lower than 90%, chest in-drawing, wheezing, and low weight-for-age. The maximum score was six. Descriptive data was represented using mean, standard deviation, and percentage or proportion. The association between any two categorical variables was analyzed using the chi-square test. The differences between any two continuous variables were analyzed using the independent sample t-test. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results A total of 75 infants were admitted with a diagnosis of acute respiratory infection during the study period. Of these, 68 were included in the study. The mean age of infants was 6.69 ± 3.96 months; 58.8% were male, 41 (60%) were exclusively breastfed, and 51 (75%) were up-to-date immunized. Twenty (29.4%) infants had a history of exposure to indoor smoke. The majority (67.6%) had pneumonia. Nine (13.2%) were mechanically ventilated. The mean duration of hospital stay was 8.16 ± 5.45 days. Sixty-three (92.64%) infants recovered and there were five deaths. The presence of less than 90% oxygen saturation (p-value=0.004), a diagnosis of severe pneumonia (p-value <0.001), and the need for mechanical ventilation (p-value <0.001) were significantly associated with mortality. A statistically significant (p-value=0.001) association was observed between the RISC score and mortality. Conclusions Addressable factors like the absence of exclusive breastfeeding, partial-immunization status, exposure to indoor smoke, and malnutrition were observed in infants with acute respiratory infections, which reinforces the importance of protective and preventive strategies for the control of pneumonia. The RISC score was observed to be beneficial in predicting mortality in an infant with acute respiratory infection. Triaging and early identification of infants at risk of mortality using this score could be very helpful in initiating timely treatment to reduce mortality, especially in resource-limited settings.

Clinical algorithm reduces antibiotic use among children presenting with respiratory symptoms to hospital in central Vietnam

OBJECTIVE

To assess the safety and utility of a pragmatic clinical algorithm to guide rational antibiotic use in children presenting with respiratory infection.

METHODS

The effect of an algorithm to guide the management of young (< 5 years) children presenting with respiratory symptoms to the Da Nang Hospital for Women and Children, Vietnam, was evaluated in a before-after intervention analysis. The main outcome was reduction in antibiotic use, with monitoring of potential harm resulting from reduced antibiotic use. The intervention comprised a single training session of physicians in the use of an algorithm informed by local evidence; developed during a previous prospective observational study. The evaluation was performed one month after the training.

RESULTS

Of the 1290 children evaluated before the intervention, 102 (7.9%) were admitted to hospital and 556/1188 (46.8%) were sent home with antibiotics. Due to COVID-19, only 166 children were evaluated after the intervention of whom 14 (8.4%) were admitted to hospital and 54/152 (35.5%) were sent home with antibiotics. Antibiotic use was reduced (from 46.8% to 35.5%; p = 0.009) after clinician training, but adequate comparison was compromised. The reduction was most pronounced in children with wheeze or runny nose and no fever, or a normal chest radiograph, where antibiotic use declined from 46.7% to 28.8% (p < 0.0001). The frequency of repeat presentation to hospital was similar between the two study periods (141/1188; 11.9% before and 10/152; 6.6% after; p = 0.10). No child represented with serious disease after being sent home without antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a reduction in antibiotic use in young children with a respiratory infection after physician training in the use of a simple evidence-based management algorithm. However, the study was severely impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, requiring further evaluation to confirm the observed effect.

Diagnostic and predictive value of Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) scoring system in community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective cross sectional study

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) exhibits high mortality rates among children, accounting for up to 50% in severe cases.

Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) score is a six-predictor standardized means for assessment of the severity of respiratory illness among children. The aim of this study was to validate the RISC score in evaluation of mortality outcome in hospitalized infants diagnosed with CAP.

Methods

This prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 150 Egyptian children who were diagnosed to have CAP, admitted to the general wards and pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) of Cairo University Children Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University from September 2019 to June 2020.

Results

Median RISC score was significantly higher in non-survivors compared with survivors (p < 0.001). There were significant direct correlations between RISC score and each of respiratory distress grade, C-reactive protein (CRP), PICU admission, mechanical ventilation (MV) and mortality (p < 0.05). The RISC score, assessed within 24 h of admission, had sensitivity of 85.71%, and specificity 89.51% in discriminating infants with CAP who survived from those who died (determined at a cut off > 3). The RISC score was a significant predictor for mortality in infants with CAP (Odds ratio = 5.17, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The RISC score helps in prediction of mortality among children with CAP. Future studies are needed to validate RISC score as a guide for effective management protocol.

What are the risk factors for death among children with pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review

Background

Knowledge of the risk factors for and causes of treatment failure and mortality in childhood pneumonia is important for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment at an individual and population level. This review aimed to identify the most important risk factors for mortality among children aged under ten years with pneumonia.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies reporting risk factors for mortality in children (aged two months to nine years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, assessed risk of bias using the EPHPP framework, and extracted data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for death. We synthesized data descriptively and using Forest plots and did not attempt meta-analysis due to the heterogeneity in study design, definitions, and populations.

Findings

We included 143 studies in this review. Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen level), decreased conscious state, severe acute malnutrition, and the presence of an underlying chronic condition were the risk factors most strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality in children with pneumonia. Additional important clinical factors that were associated with mortality in the majority of studies included particular clinical signs (cyanosis, pallor, tachypnoea, chest indrawing, convulsions, diarrhoea), chronic comorbidities (anaemia, HIV infection, congenital heart disease, heart failure), as well as other non-severe forms of malnutrition. Important demographic factors associated with mortality in the majority of studies included age <12 months and inadequate immunisation. Important laboratory and investigation findings associated with mortality in the majority of studies included: confirmed Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), consolidation on chest x-ray, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, and leukopenia. Several other demographic, clinical and laboratory findings were associated with mortality less consistently or in a small numbers of studies.

Conclusions

Risk assessment for children with pneumonia should include routine evaluation for hypoxaemia (pulse oximetry), decreased conscious state (e.g. AVPU), malnutrition (severe, moderate, and stunting), and the presence of an underlying chronic condition as these are strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality. Other potentially useful risk factors include the presence of pallor or anaemia, chest indrawing, young age (<12 months), inadequate immunisation, and leukopenia.

Prognostic accuracy of biomarkers of immune and endothelial activation in Mozambican children hospitalized with pneumonia

Pneumonia is a leading cause of child mortality. However, currently we lack simple, objective, and accurate risk-stratification tools for pediatric pneumonia. Here we test the hypothesis that measuring biomarkers of immune and endothelial activation in children with pneumonia may facilitate the identification of those at risk of death. We recruited children <10 years old fulfilling WHO criteria for pneumonia and admitted to the Manhiça District Hospital (Mozambique) from 2010 to 2014. We measured plasma levels of IL-6, IL-8, Angpt-2, sTREM-1, sFlt-1, sTNFR1, PCT, and CRP at admission, and assessed their prognostic accuracy for in-hospital, 28-day, and 90-day mortality. Healthy community controls, within same age strata and location, were also assessed. All biomarkers were significantly elevated in 472 pneumonia cases versus 80 controls (p<0.001). IL-8, sFlt-1, and sTREM-1 were associated with in-hospital mortality (p<0.001) and showed the best discrimination with AUROCs of 0.877 (95% CI: 0.782 to 0.972), 0.832 (95% CI: 0.729 to 0.935) and 0.822 (95% CI: 0.735 to 0.908), respectively. Their performance was superior to CRP, PCT, oxygen saturation, and clinical severity scores. IL-8, sFlt-1, and sTREM-1 remained good predictors of 28-day and 90-day mortality. These findings suggest that measuring IL-8, sFlt-1, or sTREM-1 at hospital presentation can guide risk-stratification of children with pneumonia, which could enable prioritized care to improve survival and resource allocation.

The dilemma of improving rational antibiotic use in pediatric community-acquired pneumonia

Pneumonia is the number one cause of disease and deaths in children under five years old, outside the neonatal period, with the greatest number of cases reported from resource-limited settings. The etiology is variable, with not much information on the local etiology drug resistance profile in many countries. Recent studies suggest an increasing contribution from respiratory viruses, also in children with severe pneumonia, with an increased relative contribution in settings that have good vaccine coverage against common bacterial pathogens. Respiratory virus circulation was greatly reduced during highly restrictive measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 but rebounded once COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed. We conducted a comprehensive literature review of the disease burden, pathogens, case management and current available prevention of community acquired childhood pneumonia, with a focus on rational antibiotic use, since the treatment of respiratory infections is the leading cause of antibiotic use in children. Consistent application of revised World Health Organisation (WHO) guidance that children presenting with coryzal symptoms or wheeze can be managed without antibiotics in the absence of fever, will help to reduce unnecessary antibiotic use, as will increased availability and use of bedside inflammatory marker tests, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) in children with respiratory symptoms and fever.

Performance of host-response biomarkers to risk-stratify children with pneumonia in Bhutan

Pneumonia is the leading cause of post-neonatal death amongst children under five years of age; however, there is no simple triage tool to identify children at risk of progressing to severe and fatal disease. Such a tool could assist for early referral and prioritization of care to improve outcomes and enhance allocation of scarce resources. We compared the performance of inflammatory and endothelial activation markers in addition to clinical signs or scoring scales to risk-stratify children hospitalized with pneumonia at the national referral hospital of Bhutan with the goal of predicting clinical outcome. Of 118 children, 31 evolved to a poor prognosis, defined as either mortality, admission in the paediatric intensive care unit, requirement of chest drainage or requirement of more than five days of oxygen therapy. Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (sTREM-1) was the best performing biomarker and performed better than clinical parameters. sTREM-1 levels upon admission had good predictive accuracy to identify children with pneumonia at risk of poor prognosis. Our findings confirm that immune and endothelial activation markers could be proactively used at first encounter as risk-stratification and clinical decision-making tools in children with pneumonia; however, further external validation is needed.

Factors associated with severe childhood community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective study from two hospitals

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of death in children globally. Indonesia is ranked 1st in South East Asia with the highest burden of pneumonia. Identification of risk factors is necessary for early intervention and better management. This study intended to describe CAP’s clinical signs and laboratory findings and explore the risk factors of severe CAP among children in Indonesia.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of childhood hospitalizations in Siloam General Hospitals and Siloam Hospitals Lippo Village from December 2015 to December 2019. Demographic data, clinical signs, and laboratory findings were collected and processed using IBM SPSS 26.0.

Results

This study included 217 participants with 66 (30.4%) severe pneumonia cases. Multivariate analysis shows that fever that lasts more than 7 days (ORadj = 4.95; 95%CI 1.61–15.21, Padj = 0.005) and increase in respiratory rate (ORadj = 1.05, 95%CI 1.01–1.08, Padj = 0.009) are two predictors of severe pneumonia. Meanwhile, a normal hematocrit level (ORadj = 0.9; 95%CI 0.83–0.98, Padj = 0.011) and children with normal BMI (ORadj = 0.7; 95%CI 0.57–0.84, Padj < 0.001) are significant independent predictors of severe pneumonia. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test shows that this model is a good fit with a P-value of 0.281. The AUC for this model is 0.819 (95%CI = 0.746–0.891, P-value < 0.001) which shows that this model has good discrimination.

Conclusion

Pediatric CAP hospitalizations with fever lasting > 7 days and tachypnea were at higher risk for progressing to severe pneumonia. A normal hematocrit level and a normal BMI are protective factors for severe pneumonia.

Higher childhood pneumonia admission threshold remains in Lao PDR: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines changed pneumonia hospitalisation criteria in 2014, which was implemented in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) in 2015. We determined adherence to: current (2014) IMCI guidelines for children presenting to hospitals with pneumonia, current outpatient management guidelines and identified hospitalisation predictors.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study (January 2017 to December 2018).

SETTING

Outpatient and emergency departments of four hospitals in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

PATIENTS

594 children aged 2-59 months diagnosed with pneumonia.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of children diagnosed, hospitalised, managed, administered preventive measures and followed-up accordant with current guidelines.

RESULTS

Non-severe and severe pneumonia were correctly diagnosed in 97% and 43% of children, respectively. Non-severe pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCI) was diagnosed as severe in 15%. Hospitalisation rates were: 80% for severe pneumonia, 86% and 3% for non-severe pneumonia with and without LCI, respectively. Outpatient oral antibiotic prescribing was high (99%), but only 30% were prescribed both the recommended antibiotic and duration. Appropriate planned follow-up was 89%. Hospitalisation predictors included age 2-5 months (compared with 24-59 months; OR 3.95, 95% CI 1.90 to 8.24), public transport to hospital (compared with private vehicle; OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.09 to 6.24) and households without piped drinking water (OR 4.67, 95% CI 2.75 to 7.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalisation practice for childhood pneumonia in Lao PDR remains more closely aligned with the 2005 WHO IMCI guidelines than the currently implemented 2014 iteration. Compliance with current outpatient antibiotic prescribing guidelines was low.

Which children with chest-indrawing pneumonia can be safely treated at home, and under what conditions is it safe to do so? A systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries

Background

WHO pneumonia guidelines recommend that children (aged 2-59 months) with chest indrawing pneumonia and without any “general danger sign” can be treated with oral amoxicillin without hospital admission. This recommendation was based on trial data from limited contexts whose generalisability is unclear. This review aimed to identify which children with chest-indrawing pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries can be safely treated at home, and under what conditions is it safe to do so.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies of home-based management of children (aged 28 days to four years) with chest-indrawing pneumonia in low- or middle-income countries.

Results

We included 14 studies, including seven randomised trials, from a variety of urban and rural contexts in 11 countries. Two community-based and two hospital-based trials in Pakistan and India found that home treatment of chest-indrawing pneumonia was associated with similar or superior treatment outcomes to hospital admission. Evidence from trials (n = 3) and observational (n = 6) studies in these and other countries confirms the acceptability and feasibility of home management of chest-indrawing pneumonia in low-risk cases, so long as safeguards are in place. Risk assessment includes clinical danger signs, oxygen saturation, and the presence of comorbidities such as undernutrition, anaemia, or HIV. Pulse oximetry is a critical risk-assessment tool that is currently not widely available and can identify severely ill patients with hypoxaemia otherwise possibly missed by clinical assessment alone. Additional safeguards include caregiver understanding and ability to return for review.

Conclusions

Home treatment of chest-indrawing pneumonia can be safe but should only be recommended for children confirmed to be low-risk and in contexts where appropriate care and safety measures are in place.

Vital sign predictors of severe influenza among children in an emergent care setting

Background

Decisions regarding the evaluation of children with influenza infection rely on the likelihood of severe disease. The role of early vital signs as predictors of severe influenza infection in children is not well known. Our objectives were to determine the value of vital signs in predicting hospitalization/recurrent emergency department (ED) visits due to influenza infection in children.

Methods

We conducted a prospective study of children aged 6 months to 8 years of age with influenza like illness evaluated at an ED/UC from 2016–2018. All children underwent influenza testing by PCR. We collected heart rate, respiratory rate and temperature, and converted heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) to z-scores by age. HR z scores were further adjusted for temperature. Our primary outcome was hospitalization/recurrent ED visits within 72 hours. Vital sign predictors with p< 0.2 and other clinical covariates were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model to determine odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI; model performance was assessed using the Brier score and discriminative ability with the C statistic.

Results

Among 1478 children, 411 (27.8%) were positive for influenza, of which 42 (10.2%) were hospitalized or had a recurrent ED visit. In multivariable analyses, adjusting for age, high-risk medical condition and school/daycare attendance, higher adjusted respiratory rate (OR 2.09, 95%CI 1.21–3.61, p = 0.0085) was a significant predictor of influenza hospitalization/recurrent ED visits.

Conclusions

Higher respiratory rate adjusted for age was the most useful vital sign predictor of severity among young children with PCR-confirmed influenza.

Molecular epidemiological surveillance of viral agents of acute lower respiratory tract infections in children in Accra, Ghana

BACKGROUND

Acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRTI) in children under 5 years is known to be predominantly caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In recent times, however, human metapneumovirus (HMPV) has also been implicated. This study sought to investigate and genotype respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus in children presenting with ALRTIs infection at the Princess Marie Louis Children's Hospital in Accra, Ghana.

METHODS

Children below 5 years who were clinically diagnosed of ALRTI and on admission at the study site were recruited between September 2015 and November 2016 for this study. Demographic data information was obtained by means of a standardized questionnaire; and relevant clinical information was obtained from medical records. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 176 children recruited for the study. Ribonucleic acid was extracted from swabs and cDNA syntheses were performed by RT-PCR. RSV-positive amplicons were sequenced and analyzed for genotype assignment.

RESULTS

RSV and HMPV prevalence among the sampled subjects were 11.4 and 1.7% respectively. Of the RSV positives, 8/20 (40%) were RSV-A and 12/20 (60%) were RSV-B. The highest prevalence was observed in children less than 12 months old. Phylogenetic analysis of the second hypervariable region of the RSV G-gene revealed that all RSV group A viruses belonged to the "novel" ON1 genotype containing the 72-nucleotide duplication; and RSV group B viruses belong to the BA IX genotype.

CONCLUSION

RSV is frequently detected in children aged under 5 years admitted with ALRTI in Ghana. Continued surveillance of viral aetiological agents is warranted to elucidate the prevalence and transmission patterns of viral pathogens that cause respiratory tract infections among children. This will help inform appropriate intervention approaches.

Predicting Mortality and Use of RISC Scoring System in Hospitalized Under-Five Children Due to WHO Defined Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia acquired in the community is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in under-five children. Predicting mortality in children remains a challenge. There is a need of consolidated scoring system to predict mortality in under-five children in developing nations.

METHODS

This is a hospital-based prospective nested case-control study, conducted in a tertiary care teaching hospital of north India. Included were under-five hospitalized children due to WHO defined severe community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Those who did not survive were categorized as cases, while those who were discharged were categorized as controls.

RESULTS

The mortality rate among the recruited 180 hospitalized children with severe CAP was 9.4%. The mortality in under-five children was higher among infants, children who resided in rural areas and were unimmunized or partially immunized for the present age. Mortality was also statistically significantly higher among under-five children with weight for age and weight for length/height below -2Z score; SpO2 < 90% at room air at admission, cyanosis, convulsion, high C-reactive protein (CRP), blood culture positive sepsis and end point consolidation. These predictors were found to be independent risk factors for the mortality after analyzing in multivariate model while presence of wheeze and exclusive breast feeding for first six months of life were found to be protective. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for respiratory index of severity in children (RISC) score has area under curve (AUC) 0.91 while AUC of RISC score with King George's Medical University (KGMU) modification has 0.88 for prediction of mortality. At the cut-off level of 3, the sensitivity of the RISC score in predicting mortality was 94.1% while the specificity was 73.6%. However, the sensitivity of the RISC score with KGMU modification in predicting mortality at cut-off level of 3 was 88.4% with a specificity of 74.8%.

CONCLUSION

Various predictors for mortality under-five children are young age, malnutrition, cyanosis, high CRP, blood culture positive sepsis and end point consolidation. It is also possible to predict mortality using RISC score which comprises simple variables and can be easily used at centers of periphery. Similar accuracy had been also found through the use of an age independent modified score (RISC score with KGMU modification).Lay summaryPneumonia is a primary cause of hospitalization as well as death among the children under the age of five. A variety of severity or mortality predicting scores have been produced for adults, but such scores for children are scarce. Furthermore, their utility in developing nations has not been proven. This is a hospital-based prospective study. Included were children under five (2 to 59 months) hospitalized due to severe community acquired pneumonia (CAP) defined as per World Health Organization (WHO) and were not hospitalized in last 14 days elsewhere. Those who did not survive were classified as cases while those who were discharged were classified as controls. A total of 200 consecutively hospitalized children with severe CAP based on WHO were screened and 180 children were recruited. Among recruited children, the percentage of mortality was 9.4% while 90.6% were discharged. The mortality was higher among children younger than 12 months, those belonged to rural area and were unimmunized or partially immunized for the present age. Mortality was also higher among under-five children with severe malnutrition, anemia, SpO2 < 90% at room air at admission, cyanosis, convulsion, thrombocytopenia, high CRP, blood culture positive sepsis and end point consolidation. After assessing in a multivariate model, these predictors were determined to be independent risk factor for death, while wheezing and exclusive breast feeding throughout the first six months of life were found to be protective. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for respiratory index of severity in children (RISC) score has an area under curve (AUC) of 0.91 while AUC of RISC score with King George's Medical University (KGMU) modification was 0.88 for the prediction of death in under-five children hospitalized due to severe CAP.

Factors associated with community acquired severe pneumonia among under five children in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A case control analysis

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children globally with the majority of these deaths observed in resource-limited settings. Globally, the annual incidence of clinical pneumonia in under-five children is approximately 152 million, mostly in the low- and middle-income countries. Of these, 8.7% progressed to severe pneumonia requiring hospitalization. However, data to predict children at the greatest risk to develop severe pneumonia from pneumonia are limited.

Method

Secondary data analysis was performed after extracting relevant data from a prospective cluster randomized controlled clinical trial; children of either sex, aged two months to five years with pneumonia or severe pneumonia acquired in the community were enrolled over a period of three years in 16 clusters in urban Dhaka city.

Results

The analysis comprised of 2,597 children aged 2–59 months. Of these, 904 and 1693 were categorized as pneumonia (controls) and severe pneumonia (cases), respectively based on WHO criteria. The median age of children was 9.2 months (inter quartile range, 5.1–17.1) and 1,576 (60%) were male. After adjustment for covariates, children with temperature ≥38°C, duration of illness ≥3 days, male sex, received prior medical care and severe stunting showed a significantly increased likelihood of developing severe pneumonia compared to those with pneumonia. Severe pneumonia in children occurred more often in older children who presented commonly from wealthy quintile families, and who often sought care from private facilities in urban settings.

Conclusion and recommendation

Male sex, longer duration of illness, fever, received prior medical care, and severe stunting were significantly associated with development of WHO-defined severe childhood pneumonia in our population. The results of this study may help to develop interventions target to reduce childhood morbidity and mortality of children suffering from severe pneumonia.

Paediatric pneumonia: deriving a model to identify severe disease

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of childhood hospitalisation. Limited data exist on factors predicting severe disease with no paediatric-specific predictive tools.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort (2011-2016) of hospitalised CAP cases. We analysed clinical variables collected at hospital presentation against outcomes. Stratified outcomes were mild (hospitalised), moderate (invasive drainage procedure, intensive care) or severe (mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, death).

RESULTS

We report 3330 CAP cases, median age 2.0 years (IQR 1-5 years), with 2950 (88.5%) mild, 305 (9.2%) moderate and 75 (2.3%) severe outcomes. Moderate-severe outcomes were associated with hypoxia (SaO₂ <90%; OR 6.6, 95% CI 5.1 to 8.5), increased work of breathing (severe vs normal OR 5.8, 95% CI 4.2 to 8.0), comorbidities (4+ comorbidities vs nil; OR 8.8, 95% CI 5.5 to 14) and being indigenous (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.6 to 8.4). Febrile children were less likely than afebrile children to have moderate-severe outcomes (OR 0.57 95% CI 0.44 to 0.74). The full model receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) was 0.78. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results with clinical or radiological CAP definitions. We derived a clinical tool to stratify low, intermediate or high likelihood of severe disease (AUC 0.72). High scores (≥5) had nearly eight times higher odds of moderate-severe disease than those with a low (≤1) score (OR 7.7 95% CI 5.6 to 10.5).

CONCLUSIONS

A clinical risk prediction tool is needed for child CAP. We have identified risk factors and derived a simple clinical tool using clinical variables at hospital presentation to determine a child's risk of invasive or intensive care treatment with an ROC AUC comparable with adult pneumonia tools.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Prevalence of hypoxaemia in children with pneumonia in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Pneumonia accounts for around 15% of all deaths of children younger than 5 years globally. Most happen in resource-constrained settings and are potentially preventable. Hypoxaemia is one of the strongest predictors of these deaths. We present an updated estimate of hypoxaemia prevalence among children with pneumonia in low-income and middle-income countries.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review using the following key concepts “children under five years of age” AND “pneumonia” AND “hypoxaemia” AND “low- and middle-income countries” by searching in 11 bibliographic databases and citation indices. We included all articles published between Nov 1, 2008, and Oct 8, 2021, based on observational studies and control arms of randomised and non-randomised controlled trials. We excluded protocol papers, articles reporting hypoxaemia prevalence based on less than 100 pneumonia cases, and articles published before 2008 from the review. Quality appraisal was done with the Joanna Briggs Institute tools. We reported pooled prevalence of hypoxaemia (SpO₂ <90%) by classification of clinical severity and by clinical settings by use of the random-effects meta-analysis models. We combined our estimate of the pooled prevalence of pneumonia with a previously published estimate of the number of children admitted to hospital due to pneumonia annually to calculate the total annual number of children admitted to hospital with hypoxaemic pneumonia.

Findings

We identified 2825 unique records from the databases, of which 57 studies met the eligibility criteria: 26 from Africa, 23 from Asia, five from South America, and four from multiple continents. The prevalence of hypoxaemia was 31% (95% CI 26–36; 101 775 children) among all children with WHO-classified pneumonia, 41% (33–49; 30 483 children) among those with very severe or severe pneumonia, and 8% (3–16; 2395 children) among those with non-severe pneumonia. The prevalence was much higher in studies conducted in emergency and inpatient settings than in studies conducted in outpatient settings. In 2019, we estimated that over 7 million children (95% CI 5–8 million) were admitted to hospital with hypoxaemic pneumonia. The studies included in this systematic review had high τ² (ie, 0·17), indicating a high level of heterogeneity between studies, and a high I² value (ie, 99·6%), indicating that the heterogeneity was not due to chance. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019126207.

Interpretation

The high prevalence of hypoxaemia among children with severe pneumonia, particularly among children who have been admitted to hospital, emphasises the importance of overall oxygen security within the health systems of low-income and middle-income countries, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even among children with non-severe pneumonia that is managed in outpatient and community settings, the high prevalence emphasises the importance of rapid identification of hypoxaemia at the first point of contact and referral for appropriate oxygen therapy.

Funding

UK National Institute for Health Research (Global Health Research Unit on Respiratory Health [RESPIRE]; 16/136/109).

Clinical pneumonia in the hospitalised child in Malawi in the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era: a prospective hospital-based observational study

OBJECTIVE

Assess characteristics of clinical pneumonia after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), by HIV exposure status, in children hospitalised in a governmental hospital in Malawi.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated 1139 children ≤5 years old hospitalised with clinical pneumonia: 101 HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) and 1038 HIV-unexposed, uninfected (HUU). Median age was 11 months (IQR 6-20), 59% were male, median mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was 14 cm (IQR 13-15) and mean weight-for-height z score was -0.7 (±2.5). The highest Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) scores were allocated to 10.4% of the overall cohort. Only 45.7% had fever, and 37.2% had at least one danger sign at presentation. The most common clinical features were crackles (54.7%), nasal flaring (53.5%) and lower chest wall indrawing (53.2%). Compared with HUU, HEU children were significantly younger (9 months vs 11 months), with lower mean birth weight (2.8 kg vs 3.0 kg) and MUAC (13.6 cm vs 14.0 cm), had higher prevalence of vomiting (32.7% vs 22.0%), tachypnoea (68.4% vs 49.8%) and highest RISC scores (20.0% vs 9.4%). Five children died (0.4%). However, clinical outcomes were similar for both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this post-PCV setting where prevalence of HIV and malnutrition is high, children hospitalised fulfilling the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness criteria for clinical pneumonia present with heterogeneous features. These vary by HIV exposure status but this does not influence either the frequency of danger signs or mortality. The poor performance of available severity scores in this population and the absence of more specific diagnostics hinder appropriate antimicrobial stewardship and the rational application of other interventions.

Soluble T cell immunoglobulin and mucin-domain containing protein 3 in children hospitalized with pneumonia in resource-limited settings

In a prospective cohort study of 77 children with severe pneumonia from two hospitals in Uganda, we assessed soluble T cell immunoglobulin and mucin-domain containing protein 3 (sTIM-3) levels at hospital admission and their association with pneumonia severity and subsequent mortality. sTIM-3 levels were positively correlated with the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.0017), sTIM-3 levels were higher in children who required transfer to a tertiary hospital (p = 0.014) and in fatal cases (p = 0.011). In summary, sTIM-3 is associated with disease severity and predictive of mortality in childhood pneumonia in resource-limited settings.

Surfactant protein D: a predictor for severity of community-acquired pneumonia in children

BACKGROUND

Surfactant protein D (SP-D) is a promising biomarker proposed for the prediction of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity. Therefore, we aimed to assess the role of SP-D in the prediction of CAP severity in pediatric patients.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was carried out at the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) and wards of Menoufia University Hospital. We recruited 112 children admitted into wards with pneumonia (simple pneumonia) and 68 children admitted into PICU with severe pneumonia (PICU admitted). World Health Organization (WHO) classification and mortality predictive scores were calculated to determine the severity of pneumonia for the two groups, including the Pediatric Respiratory Severity Score (PRESS) and the Predisposition, Insult, Response, and Organ dysfunction modified Score (PIROm). SP-D was measured at admission.

RESULTS

The SP-D level was significantly lower in patients with simple pneumonia than in patients with severe pneumonia (P < 0.001). SP-D was significantly higher among children with severe pneumonia, as determined by WHO, PRESS, and PIROm (P = 0.001). SP-D was significantly higher among children with mechanical ventilation, shock, hypoxia, sepsis, and mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for SP-D showed that the area under the curve was 0.741 (P value < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 85.3% and a specificity of 44.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum SP-D level has a predictive value for the detection of community-acquired pneumonia severity in children.

IMPACT

SP-D is a good predictor for the detection of CAP severity in hospitalized children. SP-D was correlated with severity scores and was associated with indicators of CAP severity, including mechanical ventilation, shock, hypoxia, sepsis, and mortality.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.

Risk factors for complicated community-acquired pneumonia in children

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children continues to be one of the prominent causes of pediatric morbidity and mortality worldwide. By determining the risk factors associated with the development of complicated CAP (CCAP), new approaches for early diagnosis and effective treatment can be identified.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients with CAP and CCAP who visited the pediatric ward of the study hospital between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2017. For patients with CCAP, data regarding medical procedures performed, surgical intervention, and hospitalization duration were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 111 patients, 93 (83.7%) with CAP and 18 (16.3%) with CCAP, aged between 3 months and 18 years were hospitalized because of severe pneumonia. The mean age of the patients was 3.6 ± 1.2 years and 60 (54%) of them were female. The mean age of patients with CCAP was higher than that of patients with CAP (4.2 ± 3.3 vs. 2.8 ± 2.1 years respectively); however, the difference was not significant (p = 0.012). Patients with CCAP exhibited a significantly higher C-reactive protein level than those with CAP (10.06 ± 7.55 vs. 4.43 ± 3.37 g/L respectively; p = 0.007). Hypoxia upon admission was noted more commonly in the CCAP group than in the CAP group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Findings related to hypoxia, respiratory distress, and pleural effusion on imaging are important distinguishing factors associated with the development of complications in patients hospitalized with CAP. Therefore, CCAP etiology, diagnosis, and treatment approaches should be established and protective measures adopted.

Prevalence, Predictive Factors, and Outcomes of Respiratory Failure in Children With Pneumonia Admitted in a Developing Country

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia has been the leading infectious cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years of age for the last several decades. Although most of these deaths occur due to respiratory failure, published data are limited regarding predicting factors and outcomes of respiratory failure in children hospitalized with pneumonia or severe pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the prevalence, predicting factors, and outcomes of respiratory failure in children under-five with pneumonia or severe pneumonia.

METHODS

In this retrospective chart analysis, we enrolled children under 5 years of age hospitalized with pneumonia or severe pneumonia in the Dhaka Hospital of International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) between August 2013 and December 2017. Comparisons were made between children with respiratory failure (n = 212) and those without respiratory failure (n = 4,412). Respiratory failure was defined when the oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO₂/FiO₂) was <315.

RESULTS

A total of 4,625 children with pneumonia or severe pneumonia were admitted during this study period. Among them, 212 (4.6%) children developed respiratory failure and formed the case group. A total of 4,412 (95.3%) children did not develop respiratory failure and formed the comparison group. In logistic regression analysis, after adjusting with potential confounders, severe sepsis [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 12.68, 95% CI: 8.74-18.40], convulsion (aOR: 4.52, 95% CI: 3.06-6.68), anemia (aOR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.20-2.57), and severe underweight (aOR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.34-2.89) were found to be independently associated with respiratory failure. As expected, children with respiratory failure more often had fatal outcome than without respiratory failure (74, 1%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The results of our analyses revealed that prevalence of respiratory failure was 4.6% among under-five children hospitalized for pneumonia or severe pneumonia. Severe sepsis, convulsion, anemia, and severe underweight were the independent predictors for respiratory failure in such children and their case-fatality rate was significantly higher than those without respiratory failure. Early recognition of these predicting factors of respiratory failure may help clinicians imitating prompt treatment that may further help to reduce deaths in such children, especially in resource-limited settings.

Utility of solar-powered oxygen delivery in a resource-constrained setting

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality globally. Children with severe pneumonia associated with hypoxaemia require oxygen (O₂) therapy, which is scarce across resource-constrained countries. Solar-powered oxygen (SPO2) is a novel technology developed for delivering therapeutic O₂ in resource-constrained environments.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is the introduction of SPO2 associated with a reduction in mortality, relative to the existing practice?

STUDY DESIGN

This was a pragmatic, quasi-experimental study comparing mortality amongst children < 5 years of age with hypoxaemic respiratory illness before and after the installation of SPO2 in two resource-constrained hospitals.

METHODS

Participants were children < 5 years old admitted with acute hypoxaemic respiratory illness. The intervention was SPO2, installed at two resource-constrained hospitals. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality (time to death), length of hospital stay among survivors, duration of O₂ therapy (time to wean O₂), and O₂ delivery system failure(s).

RESULTS

Mortality amongst children admitted with acute hypoxaemic respiratory illness decreased from 30/50 (60%) pre-SPO2 to 15/50 (30%) post-SPO2 (relative risk reduction 50%, 95%CI 19 - 69, p = 0.0049). The post-SPO2 period was consistently associated with decreased mortality in statistical models adjusting for potential confounding factors. Likewise, survival curves pre- and post- SPO2 differed significantly (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% CI 0.20 - 0.74, p = 0.0043). A reduction in the frequency of O₂ delivery interruptions due to fuel shortages and multiple patients needing the concentrator at once was observed, explaining the mortality reduction.

INTERPRETATION

Solar-powered oxygen installation was associated with decreased mortality in resource-constrained settings.

Defining Pneumonia Severity in Children: A Delphi Study

OBJECTIVES

Although community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common infections in children, no standardized risk classification exists to guide management. The objective of this study was to develop expert consensus for factors associated with various degrees of disease severity in pediatric CAP.

METHODS

Using a web-based classical Delphi process, a multidisciplinary panel of 10 childhood pneumonia experts rated the degree of severity (mild, moderate, or severe) of clinical, radiographic, and laboratory factors, as well as outcomes relevant to pediatric pneumonia. Round 1 was open-ended, with panelists freely stating all characteristics they felt determined pneumonia severity. In rounds 2 to 4, panelists used a 9-point Likert scale (1-3, mild; 4-6, moderate; 7-9, severe) to rate severity for each item. Consensus was defined as 70% or greater agreement in ranking mild, moderate, or severe.

RESULTS

Panelists identified 318 factors or outcomes in round 1; the panel reached consensus for 286 (90%). The majority of items without consensus straddled levels of severity (eg, mild-moderate). Notable clinical factors with consensus included age, oxygen saturation, age-based respiratory rate, and gestational age. Severity classification consensus was also reached for specific imaging and laboratory findings. Need for and duration of hospitalization, supplemental oxygen/respiratory support, and intravenous fluids/medications were considered important outcomes in classifying severity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents factors deemed important for risk stratification in pediatric CAP by consensus of a multidisciplinary expert panel. This initial step toward identifying and formalizing severity criteria for CAP informs critical knowledge gaps and can be leveraged in future development of clinically meaningful risk stratification scores.

Amoxicillin duration and dose for community-acquired pneumonia in children: the CAP-IT factorial non-inferiority RCT

BACKGROUND

Data are limited regarding the optimal dose and duration of amoxicillin treatment for community-acquired pneumonia in children.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacy, safety and impact on antimicrobial resistance of shorter (3-day) and longer (7-day) treatment with amoxicillin at both a lower and a higher dose at hospital discharge in children with uncomplicated community-acquired pneumonia.

DESIGN

A multicentre randomised double-blind 2 × 2 factorial non-inferiority trial in secondary care in the UK and Ireland.

SETTING

Paediatric emergency departments, paediatric assessment/observation units and inpatient wards.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged > 6 months, weighing 6-24 kg, with a clinical diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia, in whom treatment with amoxicillin as the sole antibiotic was planned on discharge.

INTERVENTIONS

Oral amoxicillin syrup at a dose of 35-50 mg/kg/day compared with a dose of 70-90 mg/kg/day, and 3 compared with 7 days' duration. Children were randomised simultaneously to each of the two factorial arms in a 1 : 1 ratio.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was clinically indicated systemic antibacterial treatment prescribed for respiratory tract infection (including community-acquired pneumonia), other than trial medication, up to 28 days after randomisation. Secondary outcomes included severity and duration of parent/guardian-reported community-acquired pneumonia symptoms, drug-related adverse events (including thrush, skin rashes and diarrhoea), antimicrobial resistance and adherence to trial medication.

RESULTS

A total of 824 children were recruited from 29 hospitals. Ten participants received no trial medication and were excluded. Participants [median age 2.5 (interquartile range 1.6-2.7) years; 52% male] were randomised to either 3 (n = 413) or 7 days (n = 401) of trial medication at either lower (n = 410) or higher (n = 404) doses. There were 51 (12.5%) and 49 (12.5%) primary end points in the 3- and 7-day arms, respectively (difference 0.1%, 90% confidence interval -3.8% to 3.9%) and 51 (12.6%) and 49 (12.4%) primary end points in the low- and high-dose arms, respectively (difference 0.2%, 90% confidence interval -3.7% to 4.0%), both demonstrating non-inferiority. Resolution of cough was faster in the 7-day arm than in the 3-day arm for cough (10 days vs. 12 days) (p = 0.040), with no difference in time to resolution of other symptoms. The type and frequency of adverse events and rate of colonisation by penicillin-non-susceptible pneumococci were comparable between arms.

LIMITATIONS

End-of-treatment swabs were not taken, and 28-day swabs were collected in only 53% of children. We focused on phenotypic penicillin resistance testing in pneumococci in the nasopharynx, which does not describe the global impact on the microflora. Although 21% of children did not attend the final 28-day visit, we obtained data from general practitioners for the primary end point on all but 3% of children.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic retreatment, adverse events and nasopharyngeal colonisation by penicillin-non-susceptible pneumococci were similar with the higher and lower amoxicillin doses and the 3- and 7-day treatments. Time to resolution of cough and sleep disturbance was slightly longer in children taking 3 days' amoxicillin, but time to resolution of all other symptoms was similar in both arms.

FUTURE WORK

Antimicrobial resistance genotypic studies are ongoing, including whole-genome sequencing and shotgun metagenomics, to fully characterise the effect of amoxicillin dose and duration on antimicrobial resistance. The analysis of a randomised substudy comparing parental electronic and paper diary entry is also ongoing.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN76888927, EudraCT 2016-000809-36 and CTA 00316/0246/001-0006.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 60. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Field testing two existing, standardized respiratory severity scores (LIBSS and ReSViNET) in infants presenting with acute respiratory illness to tertiary hospitals in Rwanda - a validation and inter-rater reliability study

INTRODUCTION

There is a substantial burden of respiratory disease in infants in the sub-Saharan Africa region. Many health care providers (HCPs) that initially receive infants with respiratory distress may not be adequately skilled to differentiate between mild, moderate and severe respiratory symptoms, which may contribute to poor management and outcome. Therefore, respiratory severity scores have the potential to contributing to address this gap.

OBJECTIVES

to field-test the use of two existing standardized bronchiolitis severity scores (LIBSS and ReSViNET) in a population of Rwandan infants (1-12 months) presenting with respiratory illnesses to urban, tertiary, pediatric hospitals and to assess the severity of respiratory distress in these infants and the treatments used.

METHODS

A cross-sectional, validation study, was conducted in four tertiary hospitals in Rwanda. Infants presenting with difficulty in breathing were included. The LIBSS and ReSViNET scores were independently employed by nurses and residents to assess the severity of disease in each infant.

RESULTS

100 infants were recruited with a mean age of seven months. Infants presented with pneumonia (n = 51), bronchiolitis (n = 36) and other infectious respiratory illnesses (n = 13). Thirty-three infants had severe disease and survival was 94% using nurse applied LIBSS. Regarding inter-rater reliability, the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for LIBSS and ReSViNET between nurses and residents was 0.985 (95% CI: 0.98-0.99) and 0.980 (0.97-0.99). The convergent validity (Pearson's correlation) between LIBSS and ReSViNET for nurses and residents was R = 0.836 (p<0.001) and R = 0.815 (p<0.001). The area under the Receiver Operator Curve (aROC) for admission to PICU or HDU was 0.956 (CI: 0.92-0.99, p<0.001) and 0.880 (CI: 0.80-0.96, p<0.001) for nurse completed LIBSS and ReSViNET respectively.

CONCLUSION

LIBSS and ReSViNET were designed for infants with bronchiolitis in resource-rich settings. Both LIBSS and ReSViNET demonstrated good reliability and validity results, in this cohort of patients presenting to tertiary level hospitals. This early data demonstrate that these two scores have the potential to be used in conjunction with clinical reasoning to identify infants at increased risk of clinical deterioration and allow timely admission, treatment escalation and therefore support resource allocation in Rwanda.

External validation of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH clinical prediction rules to identify risk of death in children hospitalized with pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Existing scores to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality lack broad external validation. Our objective was to externally validate three such risk scores.

METHODS

We applied the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) for HIV-negative children, the RISC-Malawi, and the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) scores to hospitalized children in the Pneumonia REsearch Partnerships to Assess WHO REcommendations (PREPARE) data set. The PREPARE data set includes pooled data from 41 studies on pediatric pneumonia from across the world. We calculated test characteristics and the area under the curve (AUC) for each of these clinical prediction rules.

RESULTS

The RISC score for HIV-negative children was applied to 3574 children 0-24 months and demonstrated poor discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.73) in the identification of children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. The RISC-Malawi score had fair discriminatory value (AUC = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.74-0.77) among 17 864 children 2-59 months. The PERCH score was applied to 732 children 1-59 months and also demonstrated poor discriminatory value (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large external application of the RISC, RISC-Malawi, and PERCH scores, a substantial number of children were misclassified for their risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality. Although pneumonia risk scores have performed well among the cohorts in which they were derived, their performance diminished when externally applied. A generalizable risk assessment tool with higher sensitivity and specificity to identify children at risk of hospitalized pneumonia-related mortality may be needed. Such a generalizable risk assessment tool would need context-specific validation prior to implementation in that setting.

Child mortality in Bangladesh - why, when, where and how? A national survey-based analysis

Background

Updated information on the cause of childhood mortality is essential for developing policies and designing programmes targeting the major burden of disease. There is a paucity of evidence regarding the current estimates of the cause of death in Bangladesh, which is essential for reinvigorating the current policies and reshaping existing strategies to avert preventable deaths. This paper aims to address this critical evidence gap and report the cause, timing and place of death among children under-five years of age using a nationally representative sample.

Methods

The present study was undertaken to provide updated estimates of causes of death among children under-five years of age using data from the 2017-18 round of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). The verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaire of the 2017-18 BDHS was adapted from the standardised WHO 2016 instruments. Specially trained physicians reviewed the responses of the VA questionnaire and assigned the cause of death based on the online-2016-version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). We included 456 deaths among children under-five years of age in our analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to present the causes, timing and places of death with uncertainty ranges (UR).

Results

Pneumonia is the major killer (19%), accounting for approximately 24 268 (UR = 21 626-26 695) under-five deaths per-year. It is followed by birth asphyxia (16%), prematurity and low-birth-weight (11%), serious infections including sepsis (8%) causing 20 882 (UR = 18 608-22 970), 14 956 (UR = 13 327-16,452), and 10 723 (UR = 9555-11,795) deaths per-year, respectively. Drowning (8%) caused 10 441 (UR = 9304-11 485) deaths and congenital anomaly (7%) resulted in d 8748 (UR = 7795-9623) deaths per-year. Around 29% of all deaths occurred on the first day, 52% within the first week, and 66% within the first month of life. Around 70% of birth asphyxia, prematurity, and low birth weight-related deaths happen on the day of birth. Approximately 43% of pneumonia-related deaths occur in age 1-11 months, and around 51% of drowning-related deaths happen in age 12-23 months.

Conclusions

Pneumonia with other serious infections, birth asphyxia, prematurity and low-birth-weight are responsible for more than half of all deaths among children under-five years of age. Strengthening the existing maternal, neonatal and child health programmes may be helpful in averting the majority of these preventable deaths. A multisectoral approach is required for the prevention of childhood deaths, especially drowning-related fatalities. Special measures need to be taken to prevent and control emerging public health challenges like birth defects and congenital anomalies.

Hypoxaemia prevalence and its adverse clinical outcomes among children hospitalised with WHO-defined severe pneumonia in Bangladesh

Background

With an estimated 1 million cases per year, pneumonia accounts for 15% of all under-five deaths globally, and hypoxaemia is one of the strongest predictors of mortality. Most of these deaths are preventable and occur in low- and middle-income countries. Bangladesh is among the six high burden countries with an estimated 4 million pneumonia episodes annually. There is a gap in updated evidence on the prevalence of hypoxaemia among children with severe pneumonia in high burden countries, including Bangladesh.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of data obtained from icddr,b-Dhaka Hospital, a secondary level referral hospital located in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We included 2646 children aged 2-59 months admitted with WHO-defined severe pneumonia during 2014-17. The primary outcome of interest was hypoxaemia, defined as SpO₂ < 90% on admission. The secondary outcome of interest was adverse clinical outcomes defined as deaths during hospital stay or referral to higher-level facilities due to clinical deterioration.

Results

On admission, the prevalence of hypoxaemia among children hospitalised with severe pneumonia was 40%. The odds of hypoxaemia were higher among females (adjusted Odds ratio AOR = 1.44; 95% confidence interval CI = 1.22-1.71) and those with a history of cough or difficulty in breathing for 0-48 hours before admission (AOR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.28-2.02). Among all children with severe pneumonia, 6% died during the hospital stay, and 9% were referred to higher-level facilities due to clinical deterioration. Hypoxaemia was the strongest predictor of mortality (AOR = 11.08; 95% CI = 7.28-16.87) and referral (AOR = 5.94; 95% CI = 4.31-17) among other factors such as age, sex, history of fever and cough or difficulty in breathing, and severe acute malnutrition. Among those who survived, the median duration of hospital stay was 7 (IQR = 4-11) days in the hypoxaemic group and 6 (IQR = 4-9) days in the non-hypoxaemic group, and the difference was significant at P < 0.001.

Conclusions

The high burden of hypoxaemia and its clinical outcomes call for urgent attention to promote oxygen security in low resource settings like Bangladesh. The availability of pulse oximetry for rapid identification and an effective oxygen delivery system for immediate correction should be ensured for averting many preventable deaths.

Paediatric pneumonia in high-income countries: Defining and recognising cases at increased risk of severe disease

World Health Organisation definitions of pneumonia severity are routinely used in research. In high income health care settings with high rates of pneumococcal vaccination and low rates of mortality, malnutrition and HIV infection, these definitions are less applicable. National guidelines from leading thoracic and infectious disease societies describe 'severe pneumonia' according to criteria derived from expert consensus rather than a robust evidence base. Contemporary cohort studies have used clinical outcomes such as intensive care therapy or invasive procedures for complicated pneumonia, to define severe disease. Describing severe pneumonia in such clinically relevant terms facilitates the identification of risk factors associated with worsened disease and the subsequently increased morbidity, and need for tertiary level care. The early recognition of children at higher risk of severe pneumonia informs site of care decisions, antibiotic treatment decisions as well as guiding appropriate investigations. Younger age, malnutrition, comorbidities, tachypnoea, and hypoxia have been identified as important associations with 'severe pneumonia' by WHO definition. Most studies have been performed in low-middle income countries and whilst they provide some insight into those at risk of mortality or treatment failure, their generalisability to the high-income setting is limited. There is a need to determine more precise definitions and criteria for severe disease in well-resourced settings and to validate factors associated with intensive care admission or invasive procedures to enhance the early recognition of those at risk.

Managing pneumonia through facility-based integrated management of childhood management (IMCI) services: an analysis of the service availability and readiness among public health facilities in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

With an estimated 24,000 deaths per year, pneumonia is the single largest cause of death among young children in Bangladesh, accounting for 18% of all under-5 deaths. The Government of Bangladesh adopted the WHO recommended Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI)-strategy in 1998 for outpatient management of pneumonia, which was scaled-up nationally by 2014. This paper reports the service availability and readiness related to IMCI-based pneumonia management in Bangladesh. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Bangladesh Health Facility Survey-2017, which was conducted with a nationally representative sample including all administrative divisions and types of health facilities. We limited our analysis to District Hospitals (DHs), Maternal and Child Welfare Centres (MCWCs), Upazila (sub-district) Health Complexes (UHCs), and Union Health and Family Welfare Centres (UH&FWCs), which are mandated to provide IMCI services. Readiness was reported based on 10 items identified by national experts as 'essential' for pneumonia management.

RESULTS

More than 90% of DHs and UHCs, and three-fourths of UH&FWCs and MCWCs provide IMCI-based pneumonia management services. Less than two-third of the staff had ever received IMCI-based pneumonia training. Only one-third of the facilities had a functional ARI timer or a watch able to record seconds on the day of the visit. Pulse oximetry was available in 27% of the district hospitals, 18% of the UHCs and none of the UH&FWCs. Although more than 80% of the facilities had amoxicillin syrup or dispersible tablets, only 16% had injectable gentamicin. IMCI service registers were not available in nearly one-third of the facilities and monthly reporting forms were not available in around 10% of the facilities. Only 18% of facilities had a high-readiness (score 8-10), whereas 20% had a low-readiness (score 0-4). The readiness was significantly poorer among rural and lower level facilities (p < 0.001). Seventy-two percent of the UHCs had availability of one of any of the four oxygen sources (oxygen concentrators, filled oxygen cylinder with flowmeter, filled oxygen cylinder without flowmeter, and oxygen distribution system) followed by DHs (66%) and MCWCs (59%).

CONCLUSION

There are substantial gaps in the readiness related to IMCI-based pneumonia management in public health facilities in Bangladesh. Since pneumonia remains a major cause of child death nationally, Bangladesh should make a substantial effort in programme planning, implementation and monitoring to address these critical gaps to ensure better provision of essential care for children suffering from pneumonia.

Development of a scale for early prediction of refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in hospitalized children

Now there is no clinical scale for early prediction of refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP). The aim of this study is to identify indicators and develop an early predictive scale for RMPP in hospitalized children. First we conducted a retrospective cohort study of children with M. pneumoniae pneumonia admitted to Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, China in 2016. Children were divided into two groups, according to whether their pneumonia were refractory and the results were used to develop an early predictive scale. Second we conducted a prospective study to validate the predictive scale for RMPP in children in 2018. 618 children were included in the retrospective study, of which 73 with RMPP. Six prognostic indicators were identified and included in the prognostic assessment scale. The sensitivity of the prognostic assessment scale was 74.0% (54/73), and the specificity was 88.3% (481/545) in the retrospective study. 944 children were included in the prospective cohort, including 92 with RMPP, the sensitivity of the prognostic assessment scale was 78.3% (72/92) and the specificity was 86.2% (734/852). The prognostic assessment scale for RMPP has high diagnostic accuracy and is suitable for use in standard clinical practice.

Modified PIRO (predisposition, insult, response, organ dysfunction) severity score as a predictor for mortality of children with pneumonia in Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia

Background

Clinical manifestations for pneumonia vary from mild to severe. The PIRO model (predisposition, insult, response, organ dysfunction) was used as scoring system to determine severity of sepsis and pneumonia in adult patients. The PIRO model was modified for sorting the severity of pneumonia in children and predicting its risk of mortality.

Methods

An ambispective cohort study of pneumonia patients aged 1 month to ≤ 18 years admitted over the period from May to September 2020. Data were collected from history, physical examination, laboratory examination, and chest radiography. Based on bivariate analysis (p<0.05 and relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence interval), variables of each PIRO component that were significant for mortality were assigned a value of 1. The cut-off score for predictor of mortality was calculated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and the scores were stratified into three degrees of risk based on interquartile range, score ≤Q1 was categorized as low risk; Q1-Q3 was categorized as moderate risk; and score >Q3 was categorized as high risk.

Results

Out of the 80 subjects enrolled, 6 months-5 years was the largest age group (56.3%). The observed mortality was 15/80 (18.8%). The modified PIRO severity score was compiled from significant variables of predisposition (malnutrition), insult (chest radiograph), response (hypoxemia, hypotension, CRP >0.5 mg/dL, PCT >0.5 ng/dL) and organ dysfunction, with range of score 0-7. Score >3 was categorized as a cut-off point score for predictor of mortality with AUC 0.919 (95% CI 0.836–0.968), sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 84.62%. Subjects with score >3 have RR of 10.544 compared to those with score ≤3. The stratification of score level was low (≤2), moderate (3-4), and high (5-7). The mortality levels were 0%, 46.7%, and 53.3%, respectively.

Conclusions

Modified PIRO severity score can be used as a sorting tool and predictor of mortality risk in children with pneumonia. This score can also be used to select candidates for intensive care, especially in health facilities with limited intensive care capacity.

Differences in clinical severity of respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children

It is uncertain whether clinical severity of an infection varies by pathogen or by multiple infections. Using hospital-based surveillance in children, we investigate the range of clinical severity for patients singly, multiply, and not infected with a group of commonly circulating viruses in Nha Trang, Vietnam. RT-PCR was performed to detect 13 respiratory viruses in nasopharyngeal samples from enrolled patients. We apply a novel clinical severity score and examine associations with the odds of being severe and differences in raw severity scores. We find no difference in severity between 0-, 1-, and 2-concurrent infections and little differences in severity between specific viruses. We find RSV and HMPV infections to be associated with 2- and 1.5-fold increase in odds of being severe, respectively, and that infection with ADV is consistently associated with lower risk of severity. Clinically, based on the results here, if RSV or HMPV virus is suspected, PCR testing for confirmatory diagnosis and for detection of multiple coinfecting viruses would be fruitful to assess whether a patient’s disease course is going to be severe.