The fitness cost of antibiotic resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae: insight from the field

Modeling the transmission of antibiotic-resistant Enterobacterales in the community: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic-resistant Enterobacterales (ARE) are a public health threat worldwide. Dissemination of these opportunistic pathogens has been largely studied in hospitals. Despite high prevalence of asymptomatic colonization in the community in some regions of the world, less is known about ARE acquisition and spread in this setting. As explaining the community ARE dynamics has not been straightforward, mathematical models can be key to explore underlying phenomena and further evaluate the impact of interventions to curb ARE circulation outside of hospitals.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies focusing on the transmission of AR-E in the community, excluding models only specific to hospitals. We extracted model features (population, setting), formalism (compartmental, individual-based), biological hypotheses (transmission, infection, antibiotic impact, resistant strain specificities) and main findings. We discussed additional mechanisms to be considered, open scientific questions, and most pressing data needs.

RESULTS

We identified 18 modeling studies focusing on the human transmission of ARE in the community (n=11) or in both community and hospital (n=7). Models aimed at (i) understanding mechanisms driving resistance dynamics; (ii) identifying and quantifying transmission routes; or (iii) evaluating public health interventions to reduce resistance. To overcome the difficulty of reproducing observed ARE dynamics in the community using the classical two-strains competition model, studies proposed to include mechanisms such as within-host strain competition or a strong host population structure. Studies inferring model parameters from longitudinal carriage data were mostly based on models considering the ARE strain only. They showed differences in ARE carriage duration depending on the acquisition mode: returning travelers have a significantly shorter carriage duration than discharged hospitalized patient or healthy individuals. Interestingly, predictions across models regarding the success of public health interventions to reduce ARE rates depended on pathogens, settings, and antibiotic resistance mechanisms. For E. coli, reducing person-to-person transmission in the community had a stronger effect than reducing antibiotic use in the community. For Klebsiella pneumoniae, reducing antibiotic use in hospitals was more efficient than reducing community use.

CONCLUSIONS

This study raises the limited number of modeling studies specifically addressing the transmission of ARE in the community. It highlights the need for model development and community-based data collection especially in low- and middle-income countries to better understand acquisition routes and their relative contribution to observed ARE levels. Such modeling will be critical to correctly design and evaluate public health interventions to control ARE transmission in the community and further reduce the associated infection burden.

Pneumococcal population dynamics: Investigating vaccine-induced changes through multiscale modelling

The mechanisms behind vaccine-induced strain replacement in the pneumococcus remain poorly understood. There is emerging evidence that distinct pneumococcal lineages can co-colonise for significant time periods, and that novel recombinants can readily emerge during natural colonisation. Despite this, patterns of post-vaccine replacement are indicative of competition between specific lineages. Here, we develop a multiscale transmission model to investigate explicitly how within host dynamics shape observed ecological patterns, both pre- and post-vaccination. Our model framework explores competition between and within strains defined by distinct antigenic, metabolic and resistance profiles. We allow for strains to freely co-colonise and recombine within hosts, and consider how each of these types may contribute to a strain's overall fitness. Our results suggest that antigenic and resistance profiles are key drivers of post-vaccine success.

Temporal Trends in Phenotypic Macrolide and Nonmacrolide Resistance for Streptococcus pneumoniae Nasopharyngeal Samples Up to 36 Months after Mass Azithromycin Administration in a Cluster-Randomized Trial in Niger

Azithromycin mass drug administration decreases child mortality but also selects for antibiotic resistance. Herein, we evaluate macrolide resistance of nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae after azithromycin MDA. In a cluster-randomized trial, children 1-59 months received azithromycin or placebo biannually. Fifteen villages from each arm were randomly selected for antimicrobial resistance testing, and 10-15 randomly selected swabs from enrolled children at each village were processed for S. pneumoniae isolation and resistance testing. The primary prespecified outcome was macrolide resistance fraction for azithromycin versus placebo villages at 36 months. Secondary non-prespecified outcomes were comparisons of azithromycin and placebo for: 1) macrolide resistance at 12, 24, and 36 months; 2) nonmacrolide resistance at 36 months; and 3) suspected-erm mutation. At 36 months, 423 swabs were obtained and 322 grew S. pneumoniae, (azithromycin: 146/202, placebo: 176/221). Mean resistance prevalence was non-significantly higher in treatment than placebo (mixed-effects model: 14.6% vs. 8.9%; OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 0.99-3.97). However, when all time points were evaluated, macrolide resistance prevalence was significantly higher in the azithromycin group (β = 0.102, 95% CI: 0.04-0.167). For all nonmacrolides, resistance prevalence at 36 months was not different between the two groups. Azithromycin and placebo were not different for suspected-erm mutation prevalence. Macrolide resistance was higher in the azithromycin group over all time points, but not at 36 months. Although this suggests resistance may not continue to increase after biannual MDA, more studies are needed to clarify when MDA can safely decrease mortality and morbidity in lower- and middle-income countries.

Mass drug administration of azithromycin: an analysis

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends mass drug administration (MDA) of the antibiotic azithromycin for children aged 1-11 months in areas with high rates of infant and child mortality. Notwithstanding the substantial potential benefits of lowering childhood mortality, MDA raises understandable concerns about exacerbating antibiotic resistance.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the use of MDA using both quantitative and ethical considerations.

SOURCES

We performed a series of literature searches between July 2019 and June 2022.

CONTENT

We first compared MDA with other uses of antibiotics using the standard metric of 'number needed to treat', and five additional criteria: (1) other widely accepted uses of anti-infectives (2) absolute use (i.e. total number), of antibiotics, (3) risk-benefit trade-off, (4) availability of short-term alternatives, and (5) the precedent for implementing similar interventions. We found that MDA falls well within a justifiable range when compared with widely accepted uses of antibiotics in terms of the number needed to treat. The other five criteria we considered provided further support for the use of MDA to prevent childhood mortality.

IMPLICATIONS

Although better data on antibiotic use and resistance are needed, efforts to reduce antibiotic use and resistance should not start with halting MDA of azithromycin in the areas with the highest rates of childhood mortality. Improving data to inform this decision is critical. However, on the basis of the best evidence available, we believe that concerns regarding resistance should not thwart MDA; instead, MDA should be accompanied by robust plans to monitor its efficacy and changes in resistance levels. Similar considerations could be included in a framework for evaluating the benefits of antibiotics against the risk of resistance in other contexts.

Testing the effects of mass drug administration of azithromycin on mortality and other outcomes among 1-11-month-old infants in Mali (LAKANA): study protocol for a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, parallel-group, three-arm clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin (AZI) has been shown to reduce under-5 mortality in some but not all sub-Saharan African settings. A large-scale cluster-randomized trial conducted in Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania suggested that the effect differs by country, may be stronger in infants, and may be concentrated within the first 3 months after treatment. Another study found no effect when azithromycin was given concomitantly with seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Given the observed heterogeneity and possible effect modification by other co-interventions, further trials are needed to determine the efficacy in additional settings and to determine the most effective treatment regimen.

METHODS

LAKANA stands for Large-scale Assessment of the Key health-promoting Activities of two New mass drug administration regimens with Azithromycin. The LAKANA trial is designed to address the mortality and health impacts of 4 or 2 annual rounds of azithromycin MDA delivered to 1-11-month-old (29-364 days) infants, in a high-mortality and malaria holoendemic Malian setting where there is a national SMC program. Participating villages (clusters) are randomly allocated in a ratio of 3:2:4 to three groups: placebo (control):4-dose AZI:2-dose AZI. The primary outcome measured is mortality. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will be monitored closely before, during, and after the intervention and both among those receiving and those not receiving MDA with the study drugs. Other outcomes, from a subset of villages, comprise efficacy outcomes related to morbidity, growth and nutritional status, outcomes related to the mechanism of azithromycin activity through measures of malaria parasitemia and inflammation, safety outcomes (AMR, adverse and serious adverse events), and outcomes related to the implementation of the intervention documenting feasibility, acceptability, and economic aspects. The enrolment commenced in October 2020 and is planned to be completed by the end of 2022. The expected date of study completion is December 2024.

DISCUSSION

If LAKANA provides evidence in support of a positive mortality benefit resulting from azithromycin MDA, it will significantly contribute to the options for successfully promoting child survival in Mali, and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04424511. Registered on 11 June 2020.

Effect of spdC gene expression on virulence and antibiotic resistance in clinical Staphylococcus aureus isolates

Surface protein display C (SpdC) protein was described as a novel virulence factor of Staphylococcus aureus that affects biofilm formation and pathogenesis and favors resistance to antimicrobials targeting cell wall. We evaluated the possible correlation between spdC gene expression level and virulence as well as antibiotic resistance phenotypes in S. aureus clinical isolates. The antimicrobial susceptibility of S. aureus clinical isolates (n = 100) was determined by the disk diffusion method. Vancomycin susceptibility was determined by the broth microdilution method. The level of the extracellular proteases and delta-hemolysin was evaluated by measuring the proteolysis and hemolysis zone diameters in skim milk and blood agar plates, respectively. Biofilm formation was assayed using the 96-well microtiter plate method. Most of the isolates (81%) were multidrug-resistant and about half of the isolates (49%) were methicillin-resistant S. aureus. Hemolysin, protease, and biofilm production were detectable in 79%, 71%, and 96% of the isolates. No significant correlation was detectable between the level of spdC gene expression and the activity of tested virulence factors or the antimicrobial resistance phenotype. Therefore, the role of SpdC protein as a virulence regulator in S. aureus needs further evaluation together with the determination of the predominant regulators for each virulence factor.

Pneumococcal within-host diversity during colonization, transmission and treatment

Characterizing the genetic diversity of pathogens within the host promises to greatly improve surveillance and reconstruction of transmission chains. For bacteria, it also informs our understanding of inter-strain competition and how this shapes the distribution of resistant and sensitive bacteria. Here we study the genetic diversity of Streptococcus pneumoniae within 468 infants and 145 of their mothers by deep sequencing whole pneumococcal populations from 3,761 longitudinal nasopharyngeal samples. We demonstrate that deep sequencing has unsurpassed sensitivity for detecting multiple colonization, doubling the rate at which highly invasive serotype 1 bacteria were detected in carriage compared with gold-standard methods. The greater resolution identified an elevated rate of transmission from mothers to their children in the first year of the child's life. Comprehensive treatment data demonstrated that infants were at an elevated risk of both the acquisition and persistent colonization of a multidrug-resistant bacterium following antimicrobial treatment. Some alleles were enriched after antimicrobial treatment, suggesting that they aided persistence, but generally purifying selection dominated within-host evolution. Rates of co-colonization imply that in the absence of treatment, susceptible lineages outcompeted resistant lineages within the host. These results demonstrate the many benefits of deep sequencing for the genomic surveillance of bacterial pathogens.

Gut resistome of preschool children after prolonged mass azithromycin distribution: a cluster-randomized trial

We evaluated the gut resistome of children from communities treated with 10 twice-yearly azithromycin distributions. While the macrolide resistance remained higher in the azithromycin arm, the selection of non-macrolide resistance observed at earlier time points did not persist. Longitudinal resistance monitoring should be a critical component of mass distribution programs.

The Surge of Hypervirulent ST398 MRSA Lineage With Higher Biofilm-Forming Ability Is a Critical Threat to Clinics

The global increase of community-associated (CA) infections with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major healthcare problem. Although sequence type (ST) 398 MRSA was first described as a livestock-associated (LA) lineage, human-adapted MRSA (HO-MRSA) ST398 without livestock contact has subsequently been reported from China in our previous study and other later research. The proportion of ST398 HO-MRSA has also remarkably increased in recent years in China. Based on 3878 S. aureus isolates that were collected in a general hospital between 2008 and 2018, we identified 56 ST398 HO-MRSA isolates. The four early appearing isolates of them have been sequenced by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in our previous study. Here, by usage of WGS on the later-appearing 52 isolates and analyzing the phylogenetic dynamics of the linage, we found that 50 isolates clustered together with the former 4 isolates, making it a main clade out of MSSA clones and other MRSA clones, although ST398 HO-MRSA evolved with multiple origins. Drug resistance and virulence gene analysis based on the WGS data demonstrated that ST398 HO-MRSA main clade exhibited a similar pattern in both parts. Furthermore, they all carried a conserved variant of prophage 3 to guarantee virulence and a short SCCmec type V element of class D to maintain considerable lower methicillin resistance. Further phenotypical research verified that the epidemic HO-MRSA ST398 displayed enhanced biofilm formation ability when keeping high virulence. The dual advantages of virulence and biofilm formation in the HO-MRSA ST398 subtype promote their fitness in the community and even in the healthcare environment, which poses a serious threat in clinical S. aureus infections. Therefore, further surveillance is required to prevent and control the problematic public health impact of HO-MRSA ST398 in the future.

Metabonomics reveals an alleviation of fitness cost in resistant E. coli competing against susceptible E. coli at sub-MIC doxycycline

High concentrations of antibiotics may induce bacterial resistance mutations and further lead to fitness costs by reducing growth of resistant bacteria. However, antibiotic concentrations faced by bacteria are usually low in common environments, which leads to questions about how resistant bacteria with fitness costs regulate metabolism to coexist or compete with susceptible bacteria during sublethal challenge. Our study revealed that a low proportion (< 15%) of resistant bacteria coexisted with susceptible bacteria due to the fitness cost without doxycycline. However, the cost for the resistant strain decreased at a doxycycline concentration of 1 mg/L and even disappeared when the doxycycline concentration was 2 mg/L. Metabonomics analysis revealed that bypass carbon metabolism and biosynthesis of secondary metabolites were the primary metabolic pathways enriching various upregulated metabolites in resistant bacteria without doxycycline. Moreover, the alleviation of fitness cost for resistant bacteria competed with susceptible bacteria at 1 mg/L doxycycline was correlated with the downregulation of the biomarkers pyruvate and pilocarpine. Our study offered new insight into the metabolic mechanisms by which the fitness cost of resistant mutants was reduced at doxycycline concentrations as low as 1 mg/L and identified various potential metabolites to limit the spread of antimicrobial resistance in the environment.

Increasing prevalence of hypervirulent ST5 methicillin susceptible Staphylococcus aureus subtype poses a serious clinical threat

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is a clinical pathogen of great significance causing metastatic or complicated infections. ST5 clonotype isolates have dominated S. aureus infections for more than 10 years in Shanghai, China, and the proportion of methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) has remarkably increased in the past decades. By whole-genome sequencing (WGS) 121 ST5 clonotype S. aureus isolates using next-generation sequencing (NGS) platforms and characterizing the evolutionary dynamics of ST5 linages, we found that MSSA evolved independently, making it a subtype differed from other MRSA clones. Drug resistance gene analysis by using the NGS data demonstrated that ST5 clonotype MRSA might be more tolerant under the threat of antimicrobials, which was confirmed in further in vitro susceptibility tests. However, MSSA subtype isolates exhibited relatively high virulence upon the analysis of virulence factors. Furthermore, MSSA subtype isolates displayed higher hemolysis capacity and higher ability to adhere to epithelial cells including A549 human alveolar epithelial cells and HaCaT human skin keratinocytes, caused more severe infections in murine abscess model. With its high virulence and enhanced magnitude in the past decades, the ST5 MSSA subtype poses a serious clinical threat hence more attention should be paid to the prevention and control.

Biannual Treatment of Preschool Children with Single Dose Azithromycin to Reduce Mortality: Impact on Azithromycin Resistance in the MORDOR Trial in Tanzania

The Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance study showed that administration of biannual, single-dose azithromycin to preschool children reduces mortality. We sought to evaluate its impact on azithromycin resistance. Thirty randomly selected communities in Kilosa district, Tanzania, were randomized to receive 6-monthly single-dose azithromycin (∼20 mg/kg) versus placebo treatment of children aged 1–59 months. From each community, 40 children (aged 1–59 months) were randomly selected at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Isolation and resistance testing of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Escherichia coli were evaluated using nasopharyngeal and rectal swabs, respectively. The carriage prevalence and the proportion of azithromycin-resistant isolates were determined using disk diffusion. At baseline, the characteristics of the randomly selected children were similar by treatment arms. Both at baseline and in annual cross-sectional surveys, rates of S. pneumoniae and E. coli isolation between treatment arms were similar. The proportions of azithromycin-resistant S. pneumoniae isolates in the children in communities treated with azithromycin versus placebo at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months were 26.5% (18.1%; P = 0.26), 26.8% (16.5%; P = 0.29), and 13.4% (17.0%; P = 0.57), respectively. The proportions of azithromycin-resistant E. coli isolates at baseline, 12 months, and 24 months in the azithromycin (versus placebo) arms were 14.9% (18.9%; P = 0.16), 21.5% (16.6%; P = 0.10), and 14.9% (14.7%; P = 0.95), respectively. Over the 24 months, the mean treatment coverage for the azithromycin and placebo was 76.9% and 74.8%, respectively (P = 0.49). Biannual administration of single-dose azithromycin to children did not appear to result in excess azithromycin resistance in S. pneumoniae and E. coli isolates over 24 months of follow-up.

Impact of Antibiotic Resistance on Treatment of Pneumococcal Disease in Ethiopia: An Agent-Based Modeling Simulation

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to global health. Although AMR endangers continued effectiveness of antibiotics, the impact of AMR has been poorly estimated in low-income countries. This study sought to quantify the effect of AMR on treatments for pediatric pneumococcal disease in Ethiopia. We developed the DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model that simulate children younger than 5 years who acquire pneumococcal disease (pneumonia, meningitis, and acute otitis media) and seek treatment from various health facilities in Ethiopia over a year. We examined the AMR levels of three antibiotics (penicillin, amoxicillin, and ceftriaxone), treatment failures, and attributable deaths. We used the cost-of-illness method to assess the resulting economic impact of AMR from a societal perspective by estimating the direct and indirect treatment costs and productivity losses. Findings showed that AMR against antibiotics that were used to treat pneumococcal disease led to 195,763 treatment failures per year, which contributed to 2,925 child deaths annually in Ethiopia. Antimicrobial resistance resulted in a first-line treatment failure rate of 29.4%. In 1 year, the proportion of nonsusceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria increased by 2.1% and 0.5% for amoxicillin and penicillin, and reduced by 0.3% for less commonly used ceftriaxone. Annual costs of AMR to treat pneumococcal disease were around US$15.8 million, including US$3.3 million for ineffective first-line treatments, US$3.7 million for second-line treatments, and US$8.9 million for long-term productivity losses. Antibiotic stewardship to reduce misuse and overuse of antibiotics is essential to maintain the effectiveness of antibiotics, and lessen the health and economic burden of AMR.

Mathematical modelling for antibiotic resistance control policy: do we know enough?

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics remain the cornerstone of modern medicine. Yet there exists an inherent dilemma in their use: we are able to prevent harm by administering antibiotic treatment as necessary to both humans and animals, but we must be mindful of limiting the spread of resistance and safeguarding the efficacy of antibiotics for current and future generations. Policies that strike the right balance must be informed by a transparent rationale that relies on a robust evidence base.

MAIN TEXT

One way to generate the evidence base needed to inform policies for managing antibiotic resistance is by using mathematical models. These models can distil the key drivers of the dynamics of resistance transmission from complex infection and evolutionary processes, as well as predict likely responses to policy change in silico. Here, we ask whether we know enough about antibiotic resistance for mathematical modelling to robustly and effectively inform policy. We consider in turn the challenges associated with capturing antibiotic resistance evolution using mathematical models, and with translating mathematical modelling evidence into policy.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that in spite of promising advances, we lack a complete understanding of key principles. From this we advocate for priority areas of future empirical and theoretical research.

Models of Trachoma Transmission and Their Policy Implications: From Control to Elimination

Despite great progress in eliminating trachoma from the majority of worldwide districts, trachoma control seems to have stalled in some endemic districts. Can mathematical models help suggest the way forward? We review specific achievements of models in trachoma control in the past. Models showed that, even with incomplete coverage, mass drug administration could eliminate disease through a spillover effect, somewhat analogous to how incomplete vaccine campaigns can eliminate disease through herd protection. Models also suggest that elimination can always be achieved if enough people are treated often enough with an effective enough drug. Other models supported the idea that targeting ages at highest risk or continued improvements in hygiene and sanitation can contribute meaningfully to trachoma control. Models of intensive targeting of a core group may point the way to final eradication even in areas with substantial transmission and within-community heterogeneity.

The Effect of Antibiotic Selection Pressure on the Nasopharyngeal Macrolide Resistome: A Cluster-randomized Trial

Background

Frequent use of antibiotics is thought to create selection pressure by clearing susceptible bacteria and allowing resistant bacteria to spread in a community. A cluster-randomized trial comparing 2 different frequencies of mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma provided a convenient experiment for determining the causal relationship between antibiotic consumption and antibiotic resistance.

Methods

Twenty-four communities were randomized to either annual or biannual mass azithromycin distributions for trachoma. Randomization was stratified on health catchment area and trachoma prevalence. Swabs were processed for the genetic macrolide resistance determinants ermB and mefA/E in a masked fashion from a random sample of 120 preschool children before treatment and another 120 children after 2 years of mass antibiotics.

Results

Macrolide resistance determinants were similar in the 12 annually and 12 biannually treated communities before treatment, with a median prevalence among preschool children of 20% (interquartile range [IQR], 10%-40%) in each group. By 24 months, macrolide resistance determinants were found more commonly in the biannually treated communities (median, 60% [IQR, 50%-80%]) than the annually treated communities (median, 40% [IQR, 20%-40%]; P < .001). Adjusting for baseline, the 24-month prevalence of macrolide resistance determinants in the biannual group was 29.4% higher than that of the annual group (95% confidence interval, 10.5%-56.7%).

Conclusions

This randomized trial used direct genetic methods to confirm the causal relationship of community antibiotic consumption and antibiotic resistance. Communities randomized to less frequent use of antibiotics had a significantly lower prevalence of genetic antibiotic resistance determinants.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT00792922.

Antimicrobial susceptibility and impact of macrolide antibiotics on Moraxella catarrhalis in the upper and lower airways of children with chronic endobronchial suppuration

INTRODUCTION

Moraxella catarrhalis is an important but insufficiently studied respiratory pathogen.

AIM

To determine antibiotic susceptibility and impact of recent antibiotics on M. catarrhalis from children with chronic endobronchial suppuration.

METHODOLOGY

We cultured nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluids collected from children who were prospectively enrolled in studies of chronic cough and had flexible bronchoscopy performed. Recent β-lactam or macrolide antibiotic use was recorded. M. catarrhalis isolates stored at -80 °C were re-cultured and susceptibility determined to a range of antibiotics including the macrolide antibiotic erythromycin.

RESULTS

Data from concurrently collected NP and BAL specimens were available from 547 children (median age 2.4 years) enrolled from 2007 to 2016. M. catarrhalis NP carriage was detected in 149 (27  %) children and lower airway infection (≥10⁴ c.f.u. ml^-1 BAL) in 67 (12  %) children. In total, 91  % of 222 M. catarrhalis isolates were β-lactamase producers, and non-susceptibility was high to benzylpenicillin (98 %), cefaclor (39 %) and cotrimoxazole (38 %). Overall, >97  % isolates were susceptible to cefuroxime, chloramphenicol, erythromycin and tetracycline; three isolates were erythromycin-resistant (MIC >0.5 mg l^-1). Recent macrolide antibiotics (n=152 children, 28 %) were associated with significantly reduced M. catarrhalis carriage and lower airway infection episodes compared to children who did not receive macrolides; odds ratios 0.19 (95  % CI 0.10-0.35) and 0.15 (0.04-0.41), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Despite the frequent use of macrolides, few macrolide-resistant isolates were detected. This suggests a fitness cost associated with macrolide resistance in M. catarrhalis. Macrolide antibiotics remain an effective choice for treating M. catarrhalis lower airway infection in children with chronic endobronchial suppuration.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Antimicrobial resistance following mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma: a systematic review

Mass azithromycin distribution is a core component of trachoma control programmes and could reduce mortality in children younger than 5 years in some settings. In this systematic review we synthesise evidence on the emergence of antimicrobial resistance after mass azithromycin distribution. We searched electronic databases for publications up to June 14, 2018. We included studies of any type (excluding modelling studies, surveillance reports, and review articles) on community-wide distribution of oral azithromycin for the prevention and treatment of trachoma that assessed macrolide resistance, without restrictions to the type of organism. We extracted prevalence of resistance from published reports and requested unpublished data from authors of included studies. Of 213 identified studies, 19 met inclusion criteria (12 assessed Streptococcus pneumoniae) and were used for qualitative synthesis. Macrolide resistance after azithromycin distribution was reported in three of the five organisms studied. The lack of resistance in Chlamydia trachomatis suggests that azithromycin might remain effective for trachoma programmes, but evidence is scarce. As mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma continues and is considered for other indications, ongoing monitoring of antimicrobial resistance will be required.

Vaccination can drive an increase in frequencies of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae

The bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major public health concern, being responsible for more than 1.5 million deaths annually through pneumonia, meningitis, and septicemia. Available vaccines target only a subset of serotypes, so vaccination is often accompanied by a rise in the frequency of nonvaccine serotypes. Epidemiological studies suggest that such a change in serotype frequencies is often coupled with an increase of antibiotic resistance among nonvaccine serotypes. Building on previous multilocus models for bacterial pathogen population structure, we have developed a theoretical framework incorporating variation of serotype and antibiotic resistance to examine how their associations may be affected by vaccination. Using this framework, we find that vaccination can result in a rapid increase in the frequency of preexisting resistant variants of nonvaccine serotypes due to the removal of competition from vaccine serotypes.

Streptococcus pneumoniae and chronic endobronchial infections in childhood

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is the main cause of bacterial pneumonia worldwide and has been studied extensively in this context. However, its role in chronic endobronchial infections and accompanying lower airway neutrophilic infiltration has received little attention. Severe and recurrent pneumonia are risk factors for chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis; the latter causes considerable morbidity and, in some populations, premature death in children and adults. Protracted bacterial bronchitis (PBB) is another chronic endobronchial infection associated with substantial morbidity. In some children, PBB may progress to bronchiectasis. Although nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae is the main pathogen in PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis, pneumococci are isolated commonly from the lower airways of children with these diagnoses. Here we review what is known currently about pneumococci in PBB, CSLD and bronchiectasis, including the importance of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal colonization and how persistence in the lower airways may contribute to the pathogenesis of these chronic pulmonary disorders. Antibiotic treatments, particularly long-term azithromycin therapy, are discussed together with antibiotic resistance and the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Important areas requiring further investigation are identified, including immune responses associated with pneumococcal lower airway infection, alone and in combination with other respiratory pathogens, and microarray serotyping to improve detection of carriage and infection by multiple serotypes. Genome wide association studies of pneumococci from the upper and lower airways will help identify virulence and resistance determinants, including potential therapeutic targets and vaccine antigens to treat and prevent endobronchial infections. Much work is needed, but the benefits will be substantial.

Vibrio Pathogens: A Public Health Concern in Rural Water Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa

Members of the Vibrio genus are autochthonous inhabitants of aquatic environments and play vital roles in sustaining the aquatic milieu. The genus comprises about 100 species, which are mostly of marine or freshwater origin, and their classification is frequently updated due to the continuous discovery of novel species. The main route of transmission of Vibrio pathogens to man is through drinking of contaminated water and consumption inadequately cooked aquatic food products. In sub-Saharan Africa and much of the developing world, some rural dwellers use freshwater resources such as rivers for domestic activities, bathing, and cultural and religious purposes. This review describes the impact of inadequately treated sewage effluents on the receiving freshwater resources and the associated risk to the rural dwellers that depends on the water. Vibrio infections remain a threat to public health. In the last decade, Vibrio disease outbreaks have created alertness on the personal, economic, and public health uncertainties associated with the impact of contaminated water in the aquatic environment of sub-Saharan Africa. In this review, we carried out an overview of Vibrio pathogens in rural water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and the implication of Vibrio pathogens on public health. Continuous monitoring of Vibrio pathogens among environmental freshwater and treated effluents is expected to help reduce the risk associated with the early detection of sources of infection, and also aid our understanding of the natural ecology and evolution of Vibrio pathogens.

Integrated proteomic and metabolomic analysis reveals that rhodomyrtone reduces the capsule in Streptococcus pneumoniae

The emergence of antibiotic-resistant pathogenic bacteria is a healthcare problem worldwide. We evaluated the antimicrobial activity of rhodomyrtone, an acylphloroglucinol present in Rhodomyrtus tomentosa leaves, against the human Gram-positive pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae. The compound exhibited pronounced anti-pneumococcal activity against a broad collection of clinical isolates. We studied the effects at the molecular level by integrated proteomic and metabolomic analysis. The results revealed alterations in enzymes and metabolites involved in several metabolic pathways including amino acid biosynthesis, nucleic acid biosynthesis, glucid, and lipid metabolism. Notably, the levels of two enzymes (glycosyltransferase and UTP-glucose-1-phosphate uridylyltransferase) and three metabolites (UDP-glucose, UDP-glucuronic acid and UDP-N-acetyl-D-galactosamine) participating in the synthesis of the pneumococcal capsule clearly diminished in the bacterial cells exposed to rhodomyrtone. Rhodomyrtone-treated pneumococci significantly possessed less amount of capsule, as measured by a colorimetric assay and visualized by electron microscopy. These findings reveal the utility of combining proteomic and metabolomic analyses to provide insight into phenotypic features of S. pneumoniae treated with this potential novel antibiotic. This can lead to an alternative antibiotic for the treatment of S. pneumoniae infections, because of the growing concern regarding antimicrobial resistance.

Short-term increase in prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of macrolide-resistant Staphylococcus aureus following mass drug administration with azithromycin for trachoma control

Background

Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin is a corner-stone of trachoma control however it may drive the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. In a cluster-randomized trial (Clinical trial gov NCT00792922), we compared the reduction in the prevalence of active trachoma in communities that received three annual rounds of MDA to that in communities that received a single treatment round. We used the framework of this trial to carry out an opportunistic study to investigate if the increased rounds of treatment resulted in increased prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of macrolide-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in two villages receiving three annual rounds of MDA (3 × treatment arm). Surveys were conducted immediately before the third round of MDA (CSS-1) and at one (CSS-2) and six (CSS-3) months after MDA. The final survey also included six villages that had received only one round of MDA 30 months previously (1 × treatment arm).

Results

In the 3 × treatment arm, a short-term increase in prevalence of S. aureus carriage was seen following MDA from 24.6% at CSS-1 to 38.6% at CSS-2 (p < 0.001). Prevalence fell to 8.8% at CSS-3 (p < 0.001). A transient increase was also seen in prevalence of carriage of azithromycin resistant (Azm^R) strains from 8.9% at CSS-1 to 34.1% (p < 0.001) in CSS-2 and down to 7.3% (p = 0.417) in CSS-3. A similar trend was observed for prevalence of carriage of macrolide-inducible-clindamycin resistant (iMLS_B) strains. In CSS-3, prevalence of carriage of resistant strains was higher in the 3 × treatment arm than in the 1 × treatment (Azm^R 7.3% vs. 1.6%, p = 0.010; iMLS_B 5.8% vs. 0.8%, p < 0.001). Macrolide resistance was attributed to the presence of msr and erm genes.

Conclusions

Three annual rounds of MDA with azithromycin were associated with a short-term increase in both the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S. aureus and prevalence of carriage of Azm^R and iMLS_BS. aureus.

Trial registration

This study was ancillary to the Partnership for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922, registration date November 17, 2008.

Bronchiectasis in Children: Current Concepts in Immunology and Microbiology

Bronchiectasis is a complex chronic respiratory condition traditionally characterized by chronic infection, airway inflammation, and progressive decline in lung function. Early diagnosis and intensive treatment protocols can stabilize or even improve the clinical prognosis of children with bronchiectasis. However, understanding the host immunologic mechanisms that contribute to recurrent infection and prolonged inflammation has been identified as an important area of research that would contribute substantially to effective prevention strategies for children at risk of bronchiectasis. This review will focus on the current understanding of the role of the host immune response and important pathogens in the pathogenesis of bronchiectasis (not associated with cystic fibrosis) in children.

Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis cases in France between 2001 and 2014: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal meningitis (PM) is a major invasive pneumococcal disease. Two pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced in France: PCV7 was recommended in 2003 and replaced in 2010 by PCV13, which has six additional serotypes. The impact of introducing those vaccines on the evolution of PM case numbers and serotype distributions in France from 2001 to 2014 is assessed herein.

METHODS

Data on 5166 Streptococcus pneumoniae strains isolated from cerebrospinal fluid between 2001 and 2014 in the 22 regions of France were obtained from the National Reference Center for Pneumococci. The effects of the different vaccination campaigns were estimated using time series analyses through autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous variables ("flu-like" syndromes incidence) and intervention functions. Intervention functions used 11 dummy variables representing each post vaccine epidemiological period. The evolution of serotype distributions was assessed for the entire population and the two most exposed age groups (<5 and > 64 years old).

RESULTS

For the first time since PCV7 introduction in 2003, total PM cases decreased significantly after starting PCV13 use: -7.1 (95% CI, -10.85 to -3.35) cases per month during 2013-2014, and was confirmed in children < 5 years old (-3.5; 95% CI, -4.81 to -2.13) and adults > 64 years old (-2.0; 95% CI, -3.36 to -0.57). During 2012-2014, different non-vaccine serotypes emerged: 12F, 24F in the entire population and children, 6C in the elderly; serotypes 3 and 19F persisted in the entire population.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike other European countries, the total PM cases in France declined only after introduction of PCV13. This suggests that vaccine pressure alone does not explain pneumococcal epidemiological changes and that other factors could play a role. Serotype distribution had changed substantially compared to the pre-vaccine era, as in other European countries, but very differently from the US. A highly reactive surveillance system is thus necessary not only to monitor evolutions due to vaccine pressure and to verify the local serotypic appropriateness of new higher-valent pneumococcal vaccines, but also to recognise and prevent unexpected changes due to other internal or external factors.

Review of Antimicrobial Resistance in the Environment and Its Relevance to Environmental Regulators

The environment is increasingly being recognized for the role it might play in the global spread of clinically relevant antibiotic resistance. Environmental regulators monitor and control many of the pathways responsible for the release of resistance-driving chemicals into the environment (e.g., antimicrobials, metals, and biocides). Hence, environmental regulators should be contributing significantly to the development of global and national antimicrobial resistance (AMR) action plans. It is argued that the lack of environment-facing mitigation actions included in existing AMR action plans is likely a function of our poor fundamental understanding of many of the key issues. Here, we aim to present the problem with AMR in the environment through the lens of an environmental regulator, using the Environment Agency (England’s regulator) as an example from which parallels can be drawn globally. The issues that are pertinent to environmental regulators are drawn out to answer: What are the drivers and pathways of AMR? How do these relate to the normal work, powers and duties of environmental regulators? What are the knowledge gaps that hinder the delivery of environmental protection from AMR? We offer several thought experiments for how different mitigation strategies might proceed. We conclude that: (1) AMR Action Plans do not tackle all the potentially relevant pathways and drivers of AMR in the environment; and (2) AMR Action Plans are deficient partly because the science to inform policy is lacking and this needs to be addressed.

Resistance to antibiotics: limit theorems for a stochastic SIS model structured by level of resistance

The rise of bacterial resistance to antibiotics is a major Public Health concern. It is the result of two interacting processes: the selection of resistant bacterial strains under exposure to antibiotics and the dissemination of bacterial strains throughout the population by contact between colonized and uncolonized individuals. To investigate the resulting time evolution of bacterial resistance, Temime et al. (Emerg Infect Dis 9:411-417, 2003) developed a stochastic SIS model, which was structured by the level of resistance of bacterial strains. Here we study the asymptotic properties of this model when the population size is large. To this end, we cast the model within the framework of measure valued processes, using point measures to represent the pattern of bacterial resistance in the compartments of colonized individuals. We first show that the suitably normalized model tends in probability to the solution of a deterministic differential system. Then we prove that the process of fluctuations around this limit tends in law to a Gaussian process in a space of distributions. These results, which generalize those of Kurtz (CBMS-NSF regional conference series in applied mathematics, vol 36. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), Philadelphia, 1981, chap. 8) on SIR models, support the validity of the deterministic approximation and quantify the rate of convergence.

Antibiotic Resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae after Azithromycin Distribution for Trachoma

Trachoma is caused by Chlamydia trachomatis and is a leading cause of blindness worldwide. Mass distribution of azithromycin (AZM) is part of the strategy for the global elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020. Although resistance to AZM in C. trachomatis has not been reported, there have been concerns about resistance in other organisms when AZM is administered in community settings. We identified studies that measured pneumococcal prevalence and resistance to AZM following mass AZM provision reported up to 2013 in Medline and Web of Science databases. Potential sources of bias were assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. A total of 45 records were screened, of which 8 met the inclusion criteria. We identified two distinct trends of resistance prevalence, which are dependent on frequency of AZM provision and baseline prevalence of resistance. We also demonstrated strong correlation between the prevalence of resistance at baseline and at 2-3 months (r = 0.759). Although resistance to AZM in C. trachomatis has not been reported, resistance to this commonly used macrolide antibiotic in other diseases could compromise treatment. This should be considered when planning long-term trachoma control strategies.

Interaction of Vaccination and Reduction of Antibiotic Use Drives Unexpected Increase of Pneumococcal Meningitis

Antibiotic-use policies may affect pneumococcal conjugate-vaccine effectiveness. The reported increase of pneumococcal meningitis from 2001 to 2009 in France, where a national campaign to reduce antibiotic use was implemented in parallel to the introduction of the 7-valent conjugate vaccine, provides unique data to assess these effects. We constructed a mechanistic pneumococcal transmission model and used likelihood to assess the ability of competing hypotheses to explain that increase. We find that a model integrating a fitness cost of penicillin resistance successfully explains the overall and age-stratified pattern of serotype replacement. By simulating counterfactual scenarios of public health interventions in France, we propose that this fitness cost caused a gradual and pernicious interaction between the two interventions by increasing the spread of nonvaccine, penicillin-susceptible strains. More generally, our results indicate that reductions of antibiotic use may counteract the benefits of conjugate vaccines introduced into countries with low vaccine-serotype coverages and high-resistance frequencies. Our findings highlight the key role of antibiotic use in vaccine-induced serotype replacement and suggest the need for more integrated approaches to control pneumococcal infections.

Antibiotic resistance as collateral damage: the tragedy of the commons in a two-disease setting

We propose a simple two-disease epidemic model where one disease exhibits only a drug-sensitive strain, while the other exhibits both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Treatment for the first disease may select for resistance in the other. We model antibiotic use as a mathematical game through the study of individual incentives and community welfare. The basic reproduction number is derived and the existence and local stability of the model equilibria are analyzed. When the force of infection of each disease is unaffected by the presence of the other, we find that there is a conflict of interest between individual and community, known as a tragedy of the commons, under targeted treatment toward persons infected by the single strain disease, but there is no conflict under mass treatment. However, we numerically show that individual and social incentive to use antibiotics may show disaccord under mass treatment if the restriction on the transmission ability of the dually infected people is removed, or drug resistant infection is worse than drug sensitive infection, or the uninfected state has a comparative disutility over the infected states.

Impact of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with azithromycin-containing regimens on maternal nasopharyngeal carriage and antibiotic sensitivity of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus: a cross-sectional survey at delivery

Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus azithromycin (AZ) (SPAZ) has the potential for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp), but its use could increase circulation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria associated with severe pediatric infections. We evaluated the effect of monthly SPAZ-IPTp compared to a single course of SP plus chloroquine (SPCQ) on maternal nasopharyngeal carriage and antibiotic susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus at delivery among 854 women participating in a randomized controlled trial in Papua New Guinea. Serotyping was performed, and antibiotic susceptibility was evaluated by disk diffusion and Etest. Potential risk factors for carriage were examined. Nasopharyngeal carriage at delivery of S. pneumoniae (SPAZ, 7.2% [30/418], versus SPCQ, 19.3% [84/436]; P<0.001) and H. influenzae (2.9% [12/418] versus 6.0% [26/436], P=0.028), but not S. aureus, was significantly reduced among women who had received SPAZ-IPTp. The number of macrolide-resistant pneumococcal isolates was small but increased in the SPAZ group (13.3% [4/30], versus SPCQ, 2.2% [2/91]; P=0.033). The proportions of isolates with serotypes covered by the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine were similar (SPAZ, 10.3% [3/29], versus SPCQ, 17.6% [16/91]; P=0.352). Although macrolide-resistant isolates were rare, they were more commonly detected in women who had received SPAZ-IPTp, despite the significant reduction of maternal carriage of S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae observed in this group. Future studies on SPAZ-IPTp should evaluate carriage and persistence of macrolide-resistant S. pneumoniae and other pathogenic bacteria in both mothers and infants and assess the clinical significance of their circulation.

Analysis of Neisseria gonorrhoeae azithromycin susceptibility in the United States by the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project, 2005 to 2013

Azithromycin, administered with ceftriaxone, is recommended by the CDC for the treatment of gonorrhea. Many experts have expressed concern about the ease with which Neisseria gonorrhoeae can acquire macrolide resistance. We sought to describe gonococcal azithromycin susceptibility in the United States and to determine whether azithromycin susceptibility has changed over time. We analyzed data from 2005 to 2013 from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project, a CDC-supported sentinel surveillance network that monitors gonococcal antimicrobial susceptibility. A total of 44,144 N. gonorrhoeae isolates were tested for azithromycin susceptibility by agar dilution methods. The overall azithromycin MIC50 was 0.25 μg/ml, and the MIC90 was 0.5 μg/ml. There were no overall temporal trends in geometric means. Isolates from men who had sex with men had significantly higher geometric mean MICs than isolates from men who had sex exclusively with women. The overall prevalence of reduced azithromycin susceptibility (MIC, ≥2 μg/ml) was 0.4% and varied by year from 0.3% (2006 and 2009) to 0.6% (2013). We did not find a clear temporal trend in gonococcal azithromycin MICs in the United States, and the prevalence of reduced azithromycin susceptibility remains low. These findings support the continued use of azithromycin in a combination therapy regimen for gonorrhea.

Macrolide- and rifampin-resistant Rhodococcus equi on a horse breeding farm, Kentucky, USA

Macrolide and rifampin resistance developed on a horse breeding farm after widespread use was instituted for treatment of subclinical pulmonary lesions in foals. Resistance occurred in 6 (24%) of 25 pretreatment and 8 (62%) of 13 (62%) posttreatment isolates from affected foals. Drug-resistant isolates formed 2 distinct genotypic clusters.

Antimicrobial resistance in the food chain: a review

Antimicrobial resistant zoonotic pathogens present on food constitute a direct risk to public health. Antimicrobial resistance genes in commensal or pathogenic strains form an indirect risk to public health, as they increase the gene pool from which pathogenic bacteria can pick up resistance traits. Food can be contaminated with antimicrobial resistant bacteria and/or antimicrobial resistance genes in several ways. A first way is the presence of antibiotic resistant bacteria on food selected by the use of antibiotics during agricultural production. A second route is the possible presence of resistance genes in bacteria that are intentionally added during the processing of food (starter cultures, probiotics, bioconserving microorganisms and bacteriophages). A last way is through cross-contamination with antimicrobial resistant bacteria during food processing. Raw food products can be consumed without having undergone prior processing or preservation and therefore hold a substantial risk for transfer of antimicrobial resistance to humans, as the eventually present resistant bacteria are not killed. As a consequence, transfer of antimicrobial resistance genes between bacteria after ingestion by humans may occur. Under minimal processing or preservation treatment conditions, sublethally damaged or stressed cells can be maintained in the food, inducing antimicrobial resistance build-up and enhancing the risk of resistance transfer. Food processes that kill bacteria in food products, decrease the risk of transmission of antimicrobial resistance.

Trachoma: an update on prevention, diagnosis, and treatment

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review recent clinical and epidemiological studies regarding the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of trachoma.

RECENT FINDINGS

Newer studies propose novel diagnostic tests that appear sensitive for the detection of ocular chlamydial infection. For example, recent studies with ribosomal RNA-based nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) have demonstrated improved sensitivities compared to DNA-based NAATs; and the progression of scarring has now been characterized with confocal microscopy. Immunologic studies have further explored the etiology of clinical sequelae, suggesting that chronic inflammation can lead to progressive scarring even in the absence of Chlamydia. Mass oral azithromycin distributions remain a mainstay of treatment; studies have assessed the appropriate frequency and duration of treatment programs. Current studies have also explored ancillary effects of azithromycin distribution on mortality and bacterial infections.

SUMMARY

Trachoma programs have had remarkable success at reducing chlamydial infection and clinical signs of trachoma. Recent work suggests improved methods to monitor infection and scarring, and better ways to distribute treatment. Whereas studies continue to demonstrate reduction in infection in hyperendemic areas, more work is necessary to achieve elimination of this blinding disease.

When does overuse of antibiotics become a tragedy of the commons?

BACKGROUND

Over-prescribing of antibiotics is considered to result in increased morbidity and mortality from drug-resistant organisms. A resulting common wisdom is that it would be better for society if physicians would restrain their prescription of antibiotics. In this view, self-interest and societal interest are at odds, making antibiotic use a classic "tragedy of the commons".

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed two mathematical models of transmission of antibiotic resistance, featuring de novo development of resistance and transmission of resistant organisms. We analyzed the decision to prescribe antibiotics as a mathematical game, by analyzing individual incentives and community outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

A conflict of interest may indeed result, though not in all cases. Increased use of antibiotics by individuals benefits society under certain circumstances, despite the amplification of drug-resistant strains or organisms. In situations where increased use of antibiotics leads to less favorable outcomes for society, antibiotics may be harmful for the individual as well. For other scenarios, where a conflict between self-interest and society exists, restricting antibody use would benefit society. Thus, a case-by-case assessment of appropriate use of antibiotics may be warranted.