The confounding effect of population structure on Bayesian skyline plot inferences of demographic history

Barriers and corridors: Assessment of gene flow and movement among red panda populations in eastern Himalayas

Landscape features can impede dispersal, gene flow, and population demography, resulting in the formation of several meta-populations within a continuous landscape. Understanding a species' ability to overcome these barriers is critical for predicting genetic connectivity and population persistence, and implementing effective conservation strategies. In the present study, we conducted a fine-scale spatial genetic analysis to understand the contemporary gene flow within red panda populations in the Eastern Himalayas. Employing geometric aspects of reserve design, we delineated the critical core habitats for red pandas, which comprise 14.5 % of the landscape (12,189.75 Km2), with only a mere 443 Km2 falling within the protected areas. We identified corridors among the core habitats, which may be vital for the species' long-term genetic viability. Furthermore, we identified substantial landscape barriers, including Sela Pass in the western region, Siang river in the central region, and the Dibang river, Lohit river, along with Dihang, Dipher, and Kumjawng passes in the eastern region, which hinder gene flow. We suggest managing red panda populations through the creation of Community Conservation Reserves in the identified core habitats, following landscape-level management planning based on the core principles of geometric reserve design. This includes a specific emphasis on identified core habitats of red panda (CH-RP 5 and CH-RP 8) to facilitate corridors and implement meta-population dynamics. We propose the development of a comprehensive, long-term conservation and management plan for red pandas in the transboundary landscape, covering China, Nepal, and Bhutan.

Comparison of Bayesian Coalescent Skyline Plot Models for Inferring Demographic Histories

Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models are widely used to infer demographic histories. The first (non-Bayesian) coalescent skyline plot model assumed a known genealogy as data, while subsequent models and implementations jointly inferred the genealogy and demographic history from sequence data, including heterochronous samples. Overall, there exist multiple different Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models which mainly differ in two key aspects: (i) how changes in population size are modeled through independent or autocorrelated prior distributions, and (ii) how many change-points in the demographic history are used, where they occur and if the number is pre-specified or inferred. The specific impact of each of these choices on the inferred demographic history is not known because of two reasons: first, not all models are implemented in the same software, and second, each model implementation makes specific choices that the biologist cannot influence. To facilitate a detailed evaluation of Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models, we implemented all currently described models in a flexible design into the software RevBayes. Furthermore, we evaluated models and choices on an empirical dataset of horses supplemented by a small simulation study. We find that estimated demographic histories can be grouped broadly into two groups depending on how change-points in the demographic history are specified (either independent of or at coalescent events). Our simulations suggest that models using change-points at coalescent events produce spurious variation near the present, while most models using independent change-points tend to over-smooth the inferred demographic history.

Patrilineal segmentary systems provide a peaceful explanation for the post-Neolithic Y-chromosome bottleneck

Studies have found a pronounced decline in male effective population sizes worldwide around 3000-5000 years ago. This bottleneck was not observed for female effective population sizes, which continued to increase over time. Until now, this remarkable genetic pattern was interpreted as the result of an ancient structuring of human populations into patrilineal groups (gathering closely related males) violently competing with each other. In this scenario, violence is responsible for the repeated extinctions of patrilineal groups, leading to a significant reduction in male effective population size. Here, we propose an alternative hypothesis by modelling a segmentary patrilineal system based on anthropological literature. We show that variance in reproductive success between patrilineal groups, combined with lineal fission (i.e., the splitting of a group into two new groups of patrilineally related individuals), can lead to a substantial reduction in the male effective population size without resorting to the violence hypothesis. Thus, a peaceful explanation involving ancient changes in social structures, linked to global changes in subsistence systems, may be sufficient to explain the reported decline in Y-chromosome diversity.

The Silk roads: phylogeography of Central Asian dice snakes (Serpentes: Natricidae) shaped by rivers in deserts and mountain valleys

Influenced by rapid changes in climate and landscape features since the Miocene, widely distributed species provide suitable models to study the environmental impact on their evolution and current genetic diversity. The dice snake Natrix tessellata, widely distributed in the Western Palearctic is one such species. We aimed to resolve a detailed phylogeography of N. tessellata with a focus on the Central Asian clade with 4 and the Anatolia clade with 3 mitochondrial lineages, trace their origin, and correlate the environmental changes that affected their distribution through time. The expected time of divergence of both clades began at 3.7 Mya in the Pliocene, reaching lineage differentiation approximately 1 million years later. The genetic diversity in both clades is rich, suggesting different ancestral areas, glacial refugia, demographic changes, and colonization routes. The Caspian lineage is the most widespread lineage in Central Asia, distributed around the Caspian Sea and reaching the foothills of the Hindu Kush Mountains in Afghanistan, and Eastern European lowlands in the west. Its distribution is limited by deserts, mountains, and cold steppe environments. Similarly, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan lineages followed the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya water systems in Central Asia, with ranges delimited by the large Kyzylkum and Karakum deserts. On the western side, there are several lineages within the Anatolia clade that converged in the central part of the peninsula with 2 being endemic to Western Asia. The distribution of both main clades was affected by expansion from their Pleistocene glacial refugia around the Caspian Sea and in the valleys of Central Asia as well as by environmental changes, mostly through aridification.

The direction, timing and demography of Popillia japonica (Coleoptera) invasion reconstructed using complete mitochondrial genomes

The Japanese beetle Popillia japonica is a pest insect that feeds on hundreds of species of wild and cultivated plants including important fruit, vegetable, and field crops. Native to Japan, the pest has invaded large areas of the USA, Canada, the Azores (Portugal), Italy, and Ticino (Switzerland), and it is considered a priority for control in the European Union. We determined the complete mitochondrial genome sequence in 86 individuals covering the entire distribution of the species. Phylogenetic analysis supports a major division between South Japan and Central/North Japan, with invasive samples coming from the latter. The origin of invasive USA samples is incompatible, in terms of the timing of the event, with a single introduction, with multiple Japanese lineages having been introduced and one accounting for most of the population expansion locally. The origin of the two invasive European populations is compatible with two different invasions followed by minimal differentiation locally. Population analyses provide the possibility to estimate the rate of sequence change from the data and to date major invasion events. Demographic analysis identifies a population expansion followed by a period of contraction prior to the invasion. The present study adds a time and demographic dimension to available reconstructions.

MASCOT-Skyline integrates population and migration dynamics to enhance phylogeographic reconstructions

The spread of infectious diseases is shaped by spatial and temporal aspects, such as host population structure or changes in the transmission rate or number of infected individuals over time. These spatiotemporal dynamics are imprinted in the genome of pathogens and can be recovered from those genomes using phylodynamics methods. However, phylodynamic methods typically quantify either the temporal or spatial transmission dynamics, which leads to unclear biases, as one can potentially not be inferred without the other. Here, we address this challenge by introducing a structured coalescent skyline approach, MASCOT-Skyline that allows us to jointly infer spatial and temporal transmission dynamics of infectious diseases using Markov chain Monte Carlo inference. To do so, we model the effective population size dynamics in different locations using a non-parametric function, allowing us to approximate a range of population size dynamics. We show, using a range of different viral outbreak datasets, potential issues with phylogeographic methods. We then use these viral datasets to motivate simulations of outbreaks that illuminate the nature of biases present in the different phylogeographic methods. We show that spatial and temporal dynamics should be modeled jointly even if one seeks to recover just one of the two. Further, we showcase conditions under which we can expect phylogeographic analyses to be biased, particularly different subsampling approaches, as well as provide recommendations of when we can expect them to perform well. We implemented MASCOT-Skyline as part of the open-source software package MASCOT for the Bayesian phylodynamics platform BEAST2.

Disentangling the contemporary and historical effects of landscape on the population genomic variation of two bird species restricted to the highland forest enclaves of northeastern Brazil

Investigating the impact of landscape features on patterns of genetic variation is crucial to understand spatially dependent evolutionary processes. Here, we assess the population genomic variation of two bird species (Conopophaga cearae and Sclerurus cearensis) through the Caatinga moist forest enclaves in northeastern Brazil. To infer the evolutionary dynamics of bird populations through the Late Quaternary, we used genome-wide polymorphism data obtained from double-digestion restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq), and integrated population structure analyses, historical demography models, paleodistribution modeling, and landscape genetics analyses. We found the population differentiation among enclaves to be significantly related to the geographic distance and historical resistance across the rugged landscape. The climate changes at the end of the Pleistocene to the Holocene likely triggered synchronic population decline in all enclaves for both species. Our findings revealed that both geographic distance and historical connectivity through highlands are important factors that can explain the current patterns of genetic variation. Our results further suggest that levels of population differentiation and connectivity cannot be explained purely on the basis of contemporary environmental conditions. By combining historical demographic analyses and niche modeling predictions in a historical framework, we provide strong evidence that climate fluctuations of the Quaternary promoted population differentiation and a high degree of temporal synchrony among population size changes in both species.

Past volcanic activity predisposes an endemic threatened seabird to negative anthropogenic impacts

Humans are regularly cited as the main driver of current biodiversity extinction, but the impact of historic volcanic activity is often overlooked. Pre-human evidence of wildlife abundance and diversity are essential for disentangling anthropogenic impacts from natural events. Réunion Island, with its intense and well-documented volcanic activity, endemic biodiversity, long history of isolation and recent human colonization, provides an opportunity to disentangle these processes. We track past demographic changes of a critically endangered seabird, the Mascarene petrel Pseudobulweria aterrima, using genome-wide SNPs. Coalescent modeling suggested that a large ancestral population underwent a substantial population decline in two distinct phases, ca. 125,000 and 37,000 years ago, coinciding with periods of major eruptions of Piton des Neiges. Subsequently, the ancestral population was fragmented into the two known colonies, ca. 1500 years ago, following eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise. In the last century, both colonies declined significantly due to anthropogenic activities, and although the species was initially considered extinct, it was rediscovered in the 1970s. Our findings suggest that the current conservation status of wildlife on volcanic islands should be firstly assessed as a legacy of historic volcanic activity, and thereafter by the increasing anthropogenic impacts, which may ultimately drive species towards extinction.

Genomic Architecture Predicts Tree Topology, Population Structuring, and Demographic History in Amazonian Birds

Geographic barriers are frequently invoked to explain genetic structuring across the landscape. However, inferences on the spatial and temporal origins of population variation have been largely limited to evolutionary neutral models, ignoring the potential role of natural selection and intrinsic genomic processes known as genomic architecture in producing heterogeneity in differentiation across the genome. To test how variation in genomic characteristics (e.g. recombination rate) impacts our ability to reconstruct general patterns of differentiation between species that cooccur across geographic barriers, we sequenced the whole genomes of multiple bird populations that are distributed across rivers in southeastern Amazonia. We found that phylogenetic relationships within species and demographic parameters varied across the genome in predictable ways. Genetic diversity was positively associated with recombination rate and negatively associated with species tree support. Gene flow was less pervasive in genomic regions of low recombination, making these windows more likely to retain patterns of population structuring that matched the species tree. We further found that approximately a third of the genome showed evidence of selective sweeps and linked selection, skewing genome-wide estimates of effective population sizes and gene flow between populations toward lower values. In sum, we showed that the effects of intrinsic genomic characteristics and selection can be disentangled from neutral processes to elucidate spatial patterns of population differentiation.

Demogenomic inference from spatially and temporally heterogeneous samples

Modern and ancient genomes are not necessarily drawn from homogeneous populations, as they may have been collected from different places and at different times. This heterogeneous sampling can be an issue for demographic inferences and results in biased demographic parameters and incorrect model choice if not properly considered. When explicitly accounted for, it can result in very complex models and high data dimensionality that are difficult to analyse. In this paper, we formally study the impact of such spatial and temporal sampling heterogeneity on demographic inference, and we introduce a way to circumvent this problem. To deal with structured samples without increasing the dimensionality of the site frequency spectrum (SFS), we introduce a new structured approach to the existing program fastsimcoal2. We assess the efficiency and relevance of this methodological update with simulated and modern human genomic data. We particularly focus on spatial and temporal heterogeneities to evidence the interest of this new SFS-based approach, which can be especially useful when handling scattered and ancient DNA samples, as in conservation genetics or archaeogenetics.

Impact of population structure in the estimation of recent historical effective population size by the software GONE

BACKGROUND

Effective population size (Ne) is a crucial parameter in conservation genetics and animal breeding. A recent method, implemented by the software GONE, has been shown to be rather accurate in estimating recent historical changes in Ne from a single sample of individuals. However, GONE estimations assume that the population being studied has remained isolated for a period of time, that is, without migration or confluence of other populations. If this occurs, the estimates of Ne can be heavily biased. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of migration and admixture on the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE through a series of computer simulations considering several scenarios: (a) the mixture of two or more ancestral populations; (b) subpopulations that continuously exchange individuals through migration; (c) populations receiving migrants from a large source; and (d) populations with balanced systems of chromosomal inversions, which also generate genetic structure.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that the estimates of historical Ne provided by GONE may be substantially biased when there has been a recent mixture of populations that were previously separated for a long period of time. Similarly, biases may occur when the rate of continued migration between populations is low, or when chromosomal inversions are present at high frequencies. However, some biases due to population structuring can be eliminated by conducting population structure analyses and restricting the estimation to the differentiated groups. In addition, disregarding the genomic regions that are involved in inversions can also remove biases in the estimates of Ne.

CONCLUSIONS

Different kinds of deviations from isolation and panmixia of the populations can generate biases in the recent historical estimates of Ne. Therefore, estimation of past demography could benefit from performing population structure analyses beforehand, by mitigating the impact of these biases on historical Ne estimates.

Reduced representation approaches produce similar results to whole genome sequencing for some common phylogeographic analyses

When designing phylogeographic investigations researchers can choose to collect many different types of molecular markers, including mitochondrial genes or genomes, SNPs from reduced representation protocols, large sequence capture data sets, and even whole genomes. Given that the statistical power and accuracy of various analyses are expected to differ depending on both the type of marker and the amount of data collected, an exploration of the variance across methodological results as a function of marker type should provide valuable information to researchers. Here we collect mitochondrial Cytochrome b sequences, whole mitochondrial genomes, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)s isolated using a genotype by sequencing (GBS) protocol, sequences from ultraconserved elements, and low-coverage nuclear genomes from the North American water vole (Microtus richardsoni). We estimate genetic distances, population genetic structure, and historical demography using data from each of these datasets and compare the results across markers. As anticipated, the results exhibit differences across marker types, particularly in terms of the resolution offered by different analyses. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that SNPs collected using a GBS protocol are the most cost-effective molecular marker, with inferences that mirror those collected from the whole genome data at a fraction of the cost per sample.

Holocene deglaciation drove rapid genetic diversification of Atlantic walrus

Rapid global warming is severely impacting Arctic ecosystems and is predicted to transform the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of Arctic species, though these linkages are poorly understood. We address this gap in knowledge using palaeogenomics to examine how earlier periods of global warming influenced the genetic diversity of Atlantic walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus), a species closely associated with sea ice and shallow-water habitats. We analysed 82 ancient and historical Atlantic walrus mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes), including now-extinct populations in Iceland and the Canadian Maritimes, to reconstruct the Atlantic walrus' response to Arctic deglaciation. Our results demonstrate that the phylogeography and genetic diversity of Atlantic walrus populations was initially shaped by the last glacial maximum (LGM), surviving in distinct glacial refugia, and subsequently expanding rapidly in multiple migration waves during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. The timing of diversification and establishment of distinct populations corresponds closely with the chronology of the glacial retreat, pointing to a strong link between walrus phylogeography and sea ice. Our results indicate that accelerated ice loss in the modern Arctic may trigger further dispersal events, likely increasing the connectivity of northern stocks while isolating more southerly stocks putatively caught in small pockets of suitable habitat.

A comparison of genomic diversity and demographic history of the North Atlantic and Southwest Atlantic southern right whales

Right whales (genus Eubalaena) were among the first, and most extensively pursued, targets of commercial whaling. However, understanding the impacts of this persecution requires knowledge of the demographic histories of these species prior to exploitation. We used deep whole genome sequencing (~40×) of 12 North Atlantic (E. glacialis) and 10 Southwest Atlantic southern (E. australis) right whales to quantify contemporary levels of genetic diversity and infer their demographic histories over time. Using coalescent- and identity-by-descent-based modelling to estimate ancestral effective population sizes from genomic data, we demonstrate that North Atlantic right whales have lived with smaller effective population sizes (Ne ) than southern right whales in the Southwest Atlantic since their divergence and describe the decline in both populations around the time of whaling. North Atlantic right whales exhibit reduced genetic diversity and longer runs of homozygosity leading to higher inbreeding coefficients compared to the sampled population of southern right whales. This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of genome-wide diversity of right whales in the western Atlantic and underscores the benefits of high coverage, genome-wide datasets to help resolve long-standing questions about how historical changes in effective population size over different time scales shape contemporary diversity estimates. This knowledge is crucial to improve our understanding of the right whales' history and inform our approaches to address contemporary conservation issues. Understanding and quantifying the cumulative impact of long-term small Ne , low levels of diversity and recent inbreeding on North Atlantic right whale recovery will be important next steps.

Genetic diversity and demographic history of the leopard seal: A Southern Ocean top predator

Leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) are top predators that can exert substantial top-down control of their Antarctic prey species. However, population trends and genetic diversity of leopard seals remain understudied, limiting our understanding of their ecological role. We investigated the genetic diversity, effective population size and demographic history of leopard seals to provide fundamental data that contextualizes their predatory influence on Antarctic ecosystems. Ninety leopard seals were sampled from the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summers of 2008-2019 and a 405bp segment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced for each individual. We uncovered moderate levels of nucleotide (π = 0.013) and haplotype (Hd = 0.96) diversity, and the effective population size was estimated at around 24,000 individuals (NE = 24,376; 95% CI: 16,876-33,126). Consistent with findings from other ice-breeding pinnipeds, Bayesian skyline analysis also revealed evidence for population expansion during the last glacial maximum, suggesting that historical population growth may have been boosted by an increase in the abundance of sea ice. Although leopard seals can be found in warmer, sub-Antarctic locations, the species' core habitat is centered on the Antarctic, making it inherently vulnerable to the loss of sea ice habitat due to climate change. Therefore, detailed assessments of past and present leopard seal population trends are needed to inform policies for Antarctic ecosystems.

Inferring Evolutionary Timescale of Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever Virus

Until 2020, there were only three original complete genome (CG) nucleotide sequences of Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus (OHFV) in GenBank. For this reason, the evolutionary rate and divergence time assessments reported in the literature were based on the E gene sequences, but notably without temporal signal evaluation, such that their reliability is unclear. As of July 2022, 47 OHFV CG sequences have been published, which enables testing of temporal signal in the data and inferring unbiased and reliable substitution rate and divergence time values. Regression analysis in the TempEst software demonstrated a stronger clocklike behavior in OHFV samples for the complete open reading frame (ORF) data set (R² = 0.42) than for the E gene data set (R² = 0.11). Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal indicated very strong evidence, with a log Bayes factor of more than 5, in favor of temporal signal in all data sets. Our results based on the complete ORF sequences showed a more precise OHFV substitution rate (95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 9.1 × 10^-5-1.8 × 10^-4 substitutions per site per year) and tree root height (416-896 years ago) compared with previous assessments. The rate obtained is significantly higher than tick-borne encephalitis virus by at least 3.8-fold. The phylogenetic analysis and past population dynamics reconstruction revealed the declining trend of OHFV genetic diversity, but there was phylogenomic evidence that implicit virus subpopulations evolved locally and underwent an exponential growth phase.

Evolution and epidemic success of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in eastern China: evidence from a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Lineage distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolates is strongly associated with geographically distinct human populations, and its transmission can be further impacted by the bacterial genome. However, the epidemic success of Mtb isolates at an individual level was unknown in eastern China. Knowledge regarding the emergence and transmission of Mtb isolates as well as relevant factors may offer a new solution to curb the spread of the disease. Thus, this study aims to reveal the evolution and epidemic success of Mtb isolates in eastern China.

RESULTS

Of initial 1040 isolates, 997 were retained after removing duplicates and those with insufficient sequencing depth. Of the final samples, 733 (73.52%) were from Zhejiang Province, and 264 (26.48%) were from Shanghai City. Lineage 2 and lineage 4 accounted for 80.44% and 19.56%, with common ancestors dating around 7017 years ago and 6882 years ago, respectively. Sub-lineage L2.2 (80.34%) contributed the majority of total isolates, followed by L4.4 (8.93%) and L4.5 (8.43%). Additionally, 51 (5.12%) isolates were identified to be multidrug-resistant (MDR), of which 21 (29.17%) were pre-extensively drug-resistant (pre-XDR). One clade harboring katG S315T mutation may date back to 65 years ago and subsequently acquired mutations conferring resistance to another five antibiotic drugs. The prevalence of compensatory mutation was the highest in pre-XDR isolates (76.19%), followed by MDR isolates (47.06%) and other drug-resistant isolates (20.60%). Time-scaled haplotypic density analyses suggested comparable success indices between lineage 2 and lineage 4 (P = 0.306), and drug resistance did not significantly promote the transmission of Mtb isolates (P = 0.340). But for pre-XDR isolates, we found a higher success index in those with compensatory mutations (P = 0.025). Mutations under positive selection were found in genes associated with resistance to second-line injectables (whiB6) and drug tolerance (prpR) in both lineage 2 and lineage 4.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates the population expansion of lineage 2 and lineage 4 in eastern China, with comparable transmission capacity, while accumulation of resistance mutations does not necessarily facilitate the success of Mtb isolates. Compensatory mutations usually accompany drug resistance and significantly contribute to the epidemiological transmission of pre-XDR strains. Prospective molecular surveillance is required to further monitor the emergence and spread of pre-XDR/XDR strains in eastern China.

Dates and Rates of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus-The Slowest Changing Tick-Borne Flavivirus

We evaluated the temporal signal and substitution rate of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) using 276 complete open reading frame (ORF) sequences with known collection dates. According to a permutation test, the TBEV Siberian subtype (TBEV-S) data set has no temporal structure and cannot be applied for substitution rate estimation without other TBEV subtypes. The substitution rate obtained suggests that the common clade of TBEV (TBEV-common), including all TBEV subtypes and louping-ill virus (LIV), is characterized by the lowest rate (1.87 × 10^-5 substitutions per site per year (s/s/y) or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 4.9 years; 95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 1.3-2.4 × 10^-5 s/s/y) among all tick-borne flaviviruses previously assessed. Within TBEV-common, the TBEV European subtype (TBEV-E) has the lowest substitution rate (1.3 × 10^-5 s/s/y or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 7.5 years; 95% HPD, 1.0-1.8 × 10^-5 s/s/y) as compared with TBEV Far-Eastern subtype (3.0 × 10^-5 s/s/y or 1 nucleotide substitution per ORF per 3.2 years; 95% HPD, 1.6-4.5 × 10^-5 s/s/y). TBEV-common representing the species tick-borne encephalitis virus diverged 9623 years ago (95% HPD interval, 6373-13,208 years). The TBEV Baikalian subtype is the youngest one (489 years; 95% HPD, 291-697 years) which differs significantly by age from TBEV-E (848 years; 95% HPD, 596-1112 years), LIV (2424 years; 95% HPD, 1572-3400 years), TBEV-FE (1936 years, 95% HPD, 1344-2598 years), and the joint clade of TBEV-S (2505 years, 95% HPD, 1700-3421 years) comprising Vasilchenko, Zausaev, and Baltic lineages.

Genetic evidence for widespread population size expansion in North American boreal birds prior to the Last Glacial Maximum

Pleistocene climate cycles are well documented to have shaped contemporary species distributions and genetic diversity. Northward range expansions in response to deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; approximately 21 000 years ago) are surmised to have led to population size expansions in terrestrial taxa and changes in seasonal migratory behaviour. Recent findings, however, suggest that some northern temperate populations may have been more stable than expected through the LGM. We modelled the demographic history of 19 co-distributed boreal-breeding North American bird species from full mitochondrial gene sets and species-specific molecular rates. We used these demographic reconstructions to test how species with different migratory strategies were affected by glacial cycles. Our results suggest that effective population sizes increased in response to Pleistocene deglaciation earlier than the LGM, whereas genetic diversity was maintained throughout the LGM despite shifts in geographical range. We conclude that glacial cycles prior to the LGM have most strongly shaped contemporary genetic diversity in these species. We did not find a relationship between historic population dynamics and migratory strategy, contributing to growing evidence that major switches in migratory strategy during the LGM are unnecessary to explain contemporary migratory patterns.

Museum specimens of a landlocked pinniped reveal recent loss of genetic diversity and unexpected population connections

The Saimaa ringed seal (Pusa hispida saimensis) is endemic to Lake Saimaa in Finland. The subspecies is thought to have originated when parts of the ringed seal population of the Baltic region were trapped in lakes emerging due to postglacial bedrock rebound around 9000 years ago. During the 20th century, the population experienced a drastic human-induced bottleneck. Today encompassing a little over 400 seals with extremely low genetic diversity, it is classified as endangered. We sequenced sections of the mitochondrial control region from 60 up to 125-years-old museum specimens of the Saimaa ringed seal. The generated dataset was combined with publicly available sequences. We studied how genetic variation has changed through time in this subspecies and how it is phylogenetically related to other ringed seal populations from the Baltic Sea, Lake Ladoga, North America, Svalbard, and the White Sea. We observed temporal fluctuations in haplotype frequencies and loss of haplotypes accompanied by a recent reduction in female effective population size. In apparent contrast with the traditionally held view of the Baltic origin of the population, the Saimaa ringed seal mtDNA variation also shows affinities to North American ringed seals. Our results suggest that the Saimaa ringed seal has experienced recent genetic drift associated with small population size. The results further suggest that extant Baltic ringed seal is not representative of the ancestral population of the Saimaa ringed seal, which calls for re-evaluation of the deep history of this subspecies.

Like a rolling stone: Colonization and migration dynamics of the gray reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos)

Designing appropriate management plans requires knowledge of both the dispersal ability and what has shaped the current distribution of the species under consideration. Here, we investigated the evolutionary history of the endangered gray reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) across its range by sequencing thousands of RADseq loci in 173 individuals in the Indo-Pacific (IP). We first bring evidence of the occurrence of a range expansion (RE) originating close to the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) where two stepping-stone waves (east and westward) colonized almost the entire IP. Coalescent modeling additionally highlighted a homogenous connectivity (Nm ~ 10 per generation) throughout the range, and isolation by distance model suggested the absence of barriers to dispersal despite the affinity of C. amblyrhynchos to coral reefs. This coincides with long-distance swims previously recorded, suggesting that the strong genetic structure at the IP scale (F ST ~ 0.56 between its ends) is the consequence of its broad current distribution and organization in a large number of demes. Our results strongly suggest that management plans for the gray reef shark should be designed on a range-wide rather than a local scale due to its continuous genetic structure. We further contrasted these results with those obtained previously for the sympatric but strictly lagoon-associated Carcharhinus melanopterus, known for its restricted dispersal ability. Carcharhinus melanopterus exhibits a similar RE dynamic but is characterized by a stronger genetic structure and a nonhomogeneous connectivity largely dependent on local coral reefs availability. This sheds new light on shark evolution, emphasizing the roles of IAA as source of biodiversity and of life-history traits in shaping the extent of genetic structure and diversity.

Genetic Diversity and Maternal Lineage of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) in the Andaman Sea of Thailand

Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) are a coastal species found in Thai waters off the coasts of the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. This species was recently re-listed as near-threatened by the IUCN Red List, though the population status in Thai seas is not known. Here, we investigated genetic diversity, population structure, maternal lineage, and demographics by analyzing skin tissue samples (n = 30) of T. aduncus stranded along the Andaman coastline of Thailand between 1990 and 2019. This study was based on 11 microsatellite loci and 265 bp mtDNA control regions compared to data available through the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). From microsatellites, the observed heterozygosity (Ho) ranged from 0.46 to 0.85. The mean fixation index (F) value for all loci was 0.10 ± 0.04, which suggests some degree of inbreeding. Two genetic clusters (the most likely K at K = 2) were observed in T. aduncus through the population structure analysis using multiple criteria. For the mtDNA control region, a total of 17 haplotypes were found for dolphins in Thai seas (14 haplotypes from our samples; three haplotypes from the NCBI database) with high levels of haplotype diversity (h) at 0.926 ± 0.027 and nucleotide diversity (π) at 0.045 ± 0.002. A decline in the effective population size from 0.05 million years ago also was observed in Thai T. aduncus through Bayesian Skyline Plots analysis. A unique set of haplotypes was identified in our samples, which may have originated from the Australian and Indian Oceans rather than the Western Pacific Ocean. These results improve our understanding of the maternal lineage of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, which can be used for monitoring population status and establishing better conservation plans for this species in the Thai Andaman Sea.

Population dynamics and demographic history of Eurasian collared lemmings

BACKGROUND

Ancient DNA studies suggest that Late Pleistocene climatic changes had a significant effect on population dynamics in Arctic species. The Eurasian collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus) is a keystone species in the Arctic ecosystem. Earlier studies have indicated that past climatic fluctuations were important drivers of past population dynamics in this species.

RESULTS

Here, we analysed 59 ancient and 54 modern mitogenomes from across Eurasia, along with one modern nuclear genome. Our results suggest population growth and genetic diversification during the early Late Pleistocene, implying that collared lemmings may have experienced a genetic bottleneck during the warm Eemian interglacial. Furthermore, we find multiple temporally structured mitogenome clades during the Late Pleistocene, consistent with earlier results suggesting a dynamic late glacial population history. Finally, we identify a population in northeastern Siberia that maintained genetic diversity and a constant population size at the end of the Pleistocene, suggesting suitable conditions for collared lemmings in this region during the increasing temperatures associated with the onset of the Holocene.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights an influence of past warming, in particular the Eemian interglacial, on the evolutionary history of the collared lemming, along with spatiotemporal population structuring throughout the Late Pleistocene.

Influence of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the demographic history and distribution of the critically endangered Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

Background

Pleistocene climate fluctuations have strongly modified species genetic diversity and distributions. The Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) has been recognized as a critically endangered animal due to heavy poaching and trafficking. However, the effect of Pleistocene climate fluctuations on the genetic diversity and spatial distribution of the Chinese pangolin remains largely unknown. Here, we combined whole genome sequencing data, analysis of complete mitochondrial genomes, and a large amount of occurrence data from field surveys to infer the ancestral demographic history and predict the past spatial dynamics of the Chinese pangolin in Guangdong Province, China.

Results

Our results indicated that there were two subpopulations, which showed similar trends of population size change in response to past climatic changes. We estimated a peak effective population size (Ne) during the last interglacial (LIG), followed by a marked decrease (~ 0.5 to fivefold change) until the last glacial maximum (LGM) and a rebound to a small peak population size during the Mid-Holocene (MH). The estimated time of the separation event between two subpopulations was approximately 3,000–2,500 years ago (ka). We estimated that the distribution of suitable areas shrank by 14.4% from the LIG to LGM, followed by an expansion of 31.4% from the LGM to MH and has been stable since then. In addition, we identified an elevational shift and suitable area decreased significantly during the LGM, but that the geographic extent of suitable areas in the western region increased from the LIG to present. The eastern region of Guangdong Province had the highest habitat suitability across all the climate scenarios.

Conclusions

Our results suggested that Pleistocene climate fluctuations played an important role in shaping patterns of genetic diversity and spatial distribution, and that human stressors likely contributed to the recent divergence of two Chinese pangolin subpopulations sampled here. We argue that a key protected area should be established in the eastern region of Guangdong Province. As such, this study provides a more thorough understanding of the impacts of Pleistocene climate fluctuations impacts on a mammalian species in southern China and suggests more robust management and conservation plans for this Critically Endangered species of special interest.

Unveiling new perspective of phylogeography, genetic diversity, and population dynamics of Southeast Asian and Pacific chickens

The complex geographic and temporal origins of chicken domestication have attracted wide interest in molecular phylogeny and phylogeographic studies as they continue to be debated up to this day. In particular, the population dynamics and lineage-specific divergence time estimates of chickens in Southeast Asia (SEA) and the Pacific region are not well studied. Here, we analyzed 519 complete mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and identified 133 haplotypes with 70 variable sites. We documented 82.7% geographically unique haplotypes distributed across major haplogroups except for haplogroup C, suggesting high polymorphism among studied individuals. Mainland SEA (MSEA) chickens have higher overall genetic diversity than island SEA (ISEA) chickens. Phylogenetic trees and median-joining network revealed evidence of a new divergent matrilineage (i.e., haplogroup V) as a sister-clade of haplogroup C. The maximum clade credibility tree estimated the earlier coalescence age of ancestral D-lineage (i.e., sub-haplogroup D2) of continental chickens (3.7 kya; 95% HPD 1985–4835 years) while island populations diverged later at 2.1 kya (95% HPD 1467–2815 years). This evidence of earlier coalescence age of haplogroup D ancestral matriline exemplified dispersal patterns to the ISEA, and thereafter the island clade diversified as a distinct group.

Population genetic diversity and structure of Rhinogobius candidianus (Gobiidae) in Taiwan: Translocation and release

Rhinogobius candidianus is a freshwater goby distributed in north, northwest, west, and south Taiwan, but this species has been introduced to east Taiwan and became dominant. To investigate its native population genetic diversity and structure and evaluate the sources and diversity of translocated populations, the mitochondrial DNA control region and cytochrome b gene (1981 bp) from 220 specimens were analyzed. These results indicated that (1) the east populations originated from two sources in west Taiwan; (2) translocated populations exist in east Taiwan and south Taiwan; (3) many populations have likely been moved secondarily by human intervention; (4) the effective size of the populations had declined greatly; (5) within the native populations, the ancestral populations colonized Taiwan during the land bridge phase in the Pleistocene through north Taiwan; (6) the landform changes in Taiwan shaped the population structure; and (7) the landforms of the coastline during glaciation also shaped the native range. The low-level genetic diversity, high population differentiation, and population decline greatly suggest the need for resource management and conservation interventions. Four clades (α-δ) should be managed as four distinct evolutionarily significant units, while the translocated populations should be managed as separate management units. Moreover, the translocated populations in east Taiwan should be evaluated and monitored carefully.

Demographic Expansions and the Emergence of Host Specialization in Genetically Distinct Ecotypes of the Tick-Transmitted Bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum

In Europe, genetically distinct ecotypes of the tick-vectored bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum circulate among mammals in three discrete enzootic cycles. To date, potential ecological factors that contributed to the emergence of these divergent ecotypes have been poorly studied. Here, we show that the ecotype that predominantly infects roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is evolutionarily derived. Its divergence from a host generalist ancestor occurred after the last glacial maximum as mammal populations, including roe deer, recolonized the European mainland from southern refugia. We also provide evidence that this host specialist ecotype's effective population size (N_e) has tracked changes in the population of its roe deer host. Specifically, both host and bacterium have undergone substantial increases in N_e over the past 1,500 years. In contrast, we show that while it appears to have undergone a major population expansion starting ~3,500 years ago, in the past 500 years, the contemporary host generalist ecotype has experienced a substantial reduction in genetic diversity levels, possibly as a result of reduced opportunities for transmission between competent hosts. IMPORTANCE The findings of this study reveal specific events important for the evolution of host specialization in a naturally occurring, obligately intracellular bacterial pathogen. Specifically, they show that host range shifts and the emergence of host specialization may occur during periods of population growth in a generalist ancestor. Our results also demonstrate the close correlation between demographic patterns in host and pathogen for a specialist system. These findings have important relevance for understanding the evolution of host range diversity. They may inform future work on host range dynamics, and they provide insights for understanding the emergence of pathogens that have human and veterinary health implications.

Assessing model adequacy for Bayesian Skyline plots using posterior predictive simulation

Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs) are a useful tool for making inferences about demographic history. For example, researchers typically apply BSPs to test hypotheses regarding how climate changes have influenced intraspecific genetic diversity over time. Like any method, BSP has assumptions that may be violated in some empirical systems (e.g., the absence of population genetic structure), and the naïve analysis of data collected from these systems may lead to spurious results. To address these issues, we introduce P2C2M.Skyline, an R package designed to assess model adequacy for BSPs using posterior predictive simulation. P2C2M.Skyline uses a phylogenetic tree and the log file output from Bayesian Skyline analyses to simulate posterior predictive datasets and then compares this null distribution to statistics calculated from the empirical data to check for model violations. P2C2M.Skyline was able to correctly identify model violations when simulated datasets were generated assuming genetic structure, which is a clear violation of BSP model assumptions. Conversely, P2C2M.Skyline showed low rates of false positives when models were simulated under the BSP model. We also evaluate the P2C2M.Skyline performance in empirical systems, where we detected model violations when DNA sequences from multiple populations were lumped together. P2C2M.Skyline represents a user-friendly and computationally efficient resource for researchers aiming to make inferences from BSP.

Insight into the evolutionary history of Indoplanorbis exustus (Bulinidae: Gastropoda) at the scale of population and species

The history of a lineage is intertwined with the history of the landscape it inhabits. Here we showcase how the geo-tectonic and climatic evolution of South Asia and surrounding landmasses have shaped the biogeographical history of Indoplanorbis exustus, a tropical Asian, freshwater snail. We amplified partial COI gene fragments from all over India and combined this with a larger dataset from South and Southeast Asia to carry out phylogenetic reconstruction, species delimitation analysis and population genetic analyses. Two nuclear genes were also amplified from a few individuals per putative species to carry out divergence dating and ancestral area reconstruction analyses. The results suggest that I. exustus dispersed out of Africa into India during the Eocene. Furthermore, molecular data suggest I. exustus is a species complex consisting of multiple putative species. Primary diversification took place in the Northern Indian plains or in Northeast India. The speciation events appear to be primarily allopatric caused by a series of aridification events starting from the late Miocene to early Pleistocene. None of the species appears to have any underlying genetic structure suggestive of high vagility. All the species underwent population fluctuations during the Pleistocene, probably driven by the Quaternary climatic fluctuations.

Phylogeography of Tridentiger bifasciatus (Gobiidae) in the Northwestern Pacific

The shimofuri goby (Tridentiger bifasciatus) is native to marine, brackish, and fresh waters along the coasts of the northwest Pacific. Our study examined the population genetic structure, diversity, and demography of T. bifasciatus in the China Seas, including the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, using the sequences of mitochondrial DNA [mtDNA cytochrome b (cyt b) gene and d-loop region] and nuclear DNA [nuDNA ryanodine receptor 3 (Ryr3) gene]. The mtDNA dataset revealed a significant population differentiation, but the nuDNA dataset displayed the absence of genetic differentiation. The discordance between these two datasets was accounted for by population admixture, selection, and incomplete lineage sorting. Although the mtDNA and nuDNA displayed a discordant population structure, these genetic markers revealed the same population history: (1) the populations retreated into two refugia during glaciations and (2) the populations declined recently. Our study revealed that after glaciations, the re-flooding in Taiwan Strait did not shape the migrations of the southern lineage from the South China Sea to the East China Sea, and displayed that two mtDNA lineages have diverged before they migrated southward during glaciations. These results offer important resources for the further study of conservation genetics.

Ancient mitochondrial and modern whole genomes unravel massive genetic diversity loss during near extinction of Alpine ibex

Population bottlenecks can have dramatic consequences for the health and long-term survival of a species. Understanding of historic population size and standing genetic variation prior to a contraction allows estimating the impact of a bottleneck on the species genetic diversity. Although historic population sizes can be modelled based on extant genomics, uncertainty is high for the last 10-20 millenia. Hence, integrating ancient genomes provides a powerful complement to retrace the evolution of genetic diversity through population fluctuations. Here, we recover 15 high-quality mitogenomes of the once nearly extinct Alpine ibex spanning 8601 BP to 1919 CE and combine these with 60 published modern whole genomes. Coalescent demography simulations based on modern whole genomes indicate population fluctuations coinciding with the last major glaciation period. Using our ancient and historic mitogenomes, we investigate the more recent demographic history of the species and show that mitochondrial haplotype diversity was reduced to a fifth of the pre-bottleneck diversity with several highly differentiated mitochondrial lineages having co-existed historically. The main collapse of mitochondrial diversity coincides with elevated human population growth during the last 1-2 kya. After recovery, one lineage was spread and nearly fixed across the Alps due to recolonization efforts. Our study highlights that a combined approach integrating genomic data of ancient, historic and extant populations unravels major long-term population fluctuations from the emergence of a species through its near extinction up to the recent past.

Strong and lasting impacts of past global warming on baleen whales and their prey

Global warming is affecting the population dynamics and trophic interactions across a wide range of ecosystems and habitats. Translating these real-time effects into their long-term consequences remains a challenge. The rapid and extreme warming period that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (7-12 thousand years ago) provides an opportunity to gain insights into the long-term responses of natural populations to periods with global warming. The effects of this post-LGM warming period have been assessed in many terrestrial taxa, whereas insights into the impacts of rapid global warming on marine taxa remain limited, especially for megafauna. In order to understand how large-scale climate fluctuations during the post-LGM affected baleen whales and their prey, we conducted an extensive, large-scale analysis of the long-term effects of the post-LGM warming on abundance and inter-ocean connectivity in eight baleen whale and seven prey (fish and invertebrates) species across the Southern and the North Atlantic Ocean; two ocean basins that differ in key oceanographic features. The analysis was based upon 7032 mitochondrial DNA sequences as well as genome-wide DNA sequence variation in 100 individuals. The estimated temporal changes in genetic diversity during the last 30,000 years indicated that most baleen whale populations underwent post-LGM expansions in both ocean basins. The increase in baleen whale abundance during the Holocene was associated with simultaneous changes in their prey and climate. Highly correlated, synchronized and exponential increases in abundance in both baleen whales and their prey in the Southern Ocean were indicative of a dramatic increase in ocean productivity. In contrast, the demographic fluctuations observed in baleen whales and their prey in the North Atlantic Ocean were subtle, varying across taxa and time. Perhaps most important was the observation that the ocean-wide expansions and decreases in abundance that were initiated by the post-LGM global warming, continued for millennia after global temperatures stabilized, reflecting persistent, long-lasting impacts of global warming on marine fauna.

Insights on the historical biogeography of Philippine domestic pigs and its relationship with continental domestic pigs and wild boars

The Philippine archipelago was believed to have never been connected to the Asian continent even during the severe Quaternary sea-level drops. As a result, the history of domestic pig (Sus scrofa) dispersal in the Philippines remains controversial and must have some anthropogenic origin associated with human migration events. In this study, the context of origin, dispersal, and the level of genetic introgression in Philippine domestic pigs were deduced using mitochondrial DNA D-loop analysis altogether with domestic pigs and wild boar corresponding to their geographic origin. The results revealed considerable genetic diversity (0.900±0.016) and widespread Asian pig-ancestry (94.60%) in the phylogenetic analysis, with admixed European pig-origin (5.10%) harboring various fractions of ancestry from Berkshire and Landrace. The close genetic connection between the continental wild boars and domestic pigs present in the Philippine domestic pigs corroborates our hypothesis of a genetic signal that may be associated with the recently reported multiple waves of human migrations to the Philippines. The Haplogroup D7, reported to occur only in Indo-Burma Biodiversity Hotspots, included a high frequency of Philippine domestic pig haplotypes (54.08%), which poses an interesting challenge because its distribution is not consistent with the hypothesized migration route of Neolithic Austronesian-speaking populations. We detected the first Pacific Clade signature and ubiquitously distributed D2 haplotypes (Asian major) on several Philippine islands. The analyses of mismatch distribution and neutrality test were consistent with the Bayesian skyline plot which showed a long stationary period of effective population size. The population decline was consistent with the pronounced population bottleneck in Asian and European pigs during the interglacial periods of the Pleistocene. The results of this study will support the conservation strategies and improvements of economically important genetic resources in the Philippines.

Novel Insights Into Refugia at the Southern Margin of the Distribution Range of the Endangered Species Ulmus laevis

Riparian ecosystems, in long-time developed regions, are among the most heavily impacted by human activities; therefore, the distribution of tree riparian species, such as Ulmus laevis, is highly affected. This phenomenon is particularly relevant at the margins of the natural habitat of the species, where populations are small and rare. In these cases, it is difficult to distinguish between relics or introductions, but it is relevant for the restoration of natural habitats and conservation strategies. The aim of this study was to study the phylogeography of the southern distribution of the species. We sequenced the entire chloroplast (cp) genomes of 54 individuals from five sampled populations across different European regions to highlight polymorphisms and analyze their distribution. Thirty-two haplotypes were identified. All the sampled populations showed private haplotypes that can be considered an indicator of long-term residency, given the low mutation rate of organellar DNA. The network of all haplotypes showed a star-like topology, and Serbian haplotypes were present in all branches. The Balkan population showed the highest level of nucleotide and genetic diversity. Low genetic differentiation between populations was observed but we found a significant differentiation among Serbia vs. other provenances. Our estimates of divergent time of U. laevis samples highlight the early split of above all Serbian individuals from other populations, emphasizing the reservoir role of white elm genetic diversity of Serbian population.

Demographic changes in Pleistocene sea turtles were driven by past sea level fluctuations affecting feeding habitat availability

Pleistocene environmental changes are generally assumed to have dramatically affected species’ demography via changes in habitat availability, but this is challenging to investigate due to our limited knowledge of how Pleistocene ecosystems changed through time. Here, we tracked changes in shallow marine habitat availability resulting from Pleistocene sea level fluctuations throughout the last glacial cycle (120–14 thousand years ago; kya) and assessed correlations with past changes in genetic diversity inferred from genome‐wide SNPs, obtained via ddRAD sequencing, in Caribbean hawksbill turtles, which feed in coral reefs commonly found in shallow tropical waters. We found sea level regression resulted in an average 75% reduction in shallow marine habitat availability during the last glacial cycle. Changes in shallow marine habitat availability correlated strongly with past changes in hawksbill turtle genetic diversity, which gradually declined to ~1/4th of present‐day levels during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 26–19 kya). Shallow marine habitat availability and genetic diversity rapidly increased after the LGM, signifying a population expansion in response to warming environmental conditions. Our results suggest a positive correlation between Pleistocene environmental changes, habitat availability and species’ demography, and that demographic changes in hawksbill turtles were potentially driven by feeding habitat availability. However, we also identified challenges associated with disentangling the potential environmental drivers of past demographic changes, which highlights the need for integrative approaches. Our conclusions underline the role of habitat availability on species’ demography and biodiversity, and that the consequences of ongoing habitat loss should not be underestimated.

Evolutionary innovations in Antarctic brittle stars linked to glacial refugia

The drivers behind evolutionary innovations such as contrasting life histories and morphological change are central questions of evolutionary biology. However, the environmental and ecological contexts linked to evolutionary innovations are generally unclear. During the Pleistocene glacial cycles, grounded ice sheets expanded across the Southern Ocean continental shelf. Limited ice-free areas remained, and fauna were isolated from other refugial populations. Survival in Southern Ocean refugia could present opportunities for ecological adaptation and evolutionary innovation. Here, we reconstructed the phylogeographic patterns of circum-Antarctic brittle stars Ophionotus victoriae and O. hexactis with contrasting life histories (broadcasting vs brooding) and morphology (5 vs 6 arms). We examined the evolutionary relationship between the two species using cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) data. COI data suggested that O. victoriae is a single species (rather than a species complex) and is closely related to O. hexactis (a separate species). Since their recent divergence in the mid-Pleistocene, O. victoriae and O. hexactis likely persisted differently throughout glacial maxima, in deep-sea and Antarctic island refugia, respectively. Genetic connectivity, within and between the Antarctic continental shelf and islands, was also observed and could be linked to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and local oceanographic regimes. Signatures of a probable seascape corridor linking connectivity between the Scotia Sea and Prydz Bay are also highlighted. We suggest that survival in Antarctic island refugia was associated with increase in arm number and a switch from broadcast spawning to brooding in O. hexactis, and propose that it could be linked to environmental changes (such as salinity) associated with intensified interglacial-glacial cycles.

Impact of model assumptions on demographic inferences: the case study of two sympatric mouse lemurs in northwestern Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Quaternary climate fluctuations have been acknowledged as major drivers of the geographical distribution of the extraordinary biodiversity observed in tropical biomes, including Madagascar. The main existing framework for Pleistocene Malagasy diversification assumes that forest cover was strongly shaped by warmer Interglacials (leading to forest expansion) and by cooler and arid glacials (leading to forest contraction), but predictions derived from this scenario for forest-dwelling animals have rarely been tested with genomic datasets.

RESULTS

We generated genomic data and applied three complementary demographic approaches (Stairway Plot, PSMC and IICR-simulations) to infer population size and connectivity changes for two forest-dependent primate species (Microcebus murinus and M. ravelobensis) in northwestern Madagascar. The analyses suggested major demographic changes in both species that could be interpreted in two ways, depending on underlying model assumptions (i.e., panmixia or population structure). Under panmixia, the two species exhibited larger population sizes across the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and towards the African Humid Period (AHP). This peak was followed by a population decline in M. ravelobensis until the present, while M. murinus may have experienced a second population expansion that was followed by a sharp decline starting 3000 years ago. In contrast, simulations under population structure suggested decreasing population connectivity between the Last Interglacial and the LGM for both species, but increased connectivity during the AHP exclusively for M. murinus.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that closely related species may differ in their responses to climatic events. Assuming that Pleistocene climatic conditions in the lowlands were similar to those in the Malagasy highlands, some demographic dynamics would be better explained by changes in population connectivity than in population size. However, changes in connectivity alone cannot be easily reconciled with a founder effect that was shown for M. murinus during its colonization of the northwestern Madagascar in the late Pleistocene. To decide between the two alternative models, more knowledge about historic forest dynamics in lowland habitats is necessary. Altogether, our study stresses that demographic inferences strongly depend on the underlying model assumptions. Final conclusions should therefore be based on a comparative evaluation of multiple approaches.

The demographic history of Madagascan micro-endemics: have rare species always been rare?

Extinction has increased as human activities impact ecosystems, yet relatively few species have conservation assessments. Novel approaches are needed to highlight threatened species that are currently data-deficient. Many Madagascan plant species have extremely narrow ranges, but this may not have always been the case-it is unclear how the island's diverse flora evolved. To assess this, we generated restriction-site associated DNA sequence data for 10 Madagascan plant species, estimated effective population size (Ne) for each species and compared this to census (Nc) sizes. In each case, Ne was an order of magnitude larger than Nc-signifying rapid, recent population decline. We then estimated species' demographic history, tracking changes in Ne over time. We show that it is possible to predict extinction risk, particularly in the most threatened species. Furthermore, simulations showed that our approach has the power to detect population decline during the Anthropocene. Our analyses reveal that Madagascar's micro-endemics were not always rare, having experienced a rapid decline in their recent history. This casts further uncertainty over the processes that generated Madagascar's exceptional biodiversity. Our approach targets data-deficient species in need of conservation assessment, particularly in regions where human modification of the environment has been rapid.

pgHMA: Application of the heteroduplex mobility assay analysis in phylogenetics and population genetics

The heteroduplex mobility assay (HMA) has proven to be a robust tool for the detection of genetic variation. Here, we describe a simple and rapid application of the HMA by microfluidic capillary electrophoresis, for phylogenetics and population genetic analyses (pgHMA). We show how commonly applied techniques in phylogenetics and population genetics have equivalents with pgHMA: phylogenetic reconstruction with bootstrapping, skyline plots, and mismatch distribution analysis. We assess the performance and accuracy of pgHMA by comparing the results obtained against those obtained using standard methods of analyses applied to sequencing data. The resulting comparisons demonstrate that: (a) there is a significant linear relationship (R²  = .992) between heteroduplex mobility and genetic distance, (b) phylogenetic trees obtained by HMA and nucleotide sequences present nearly identical topologies, (c) clades with high pgHMA parametric bootstrap support also have high bootstrap support on nucleotide phylogenies, (d) skyline plots estimated from the UPGMA trees of HMA and Bayesian trees of nucleotide data reveal similar trends, especially for the median trend estimate of effective population size, and (e) optimized mismatch distributions of HMA are closely fitted to the mismatch distributions of nucleotide sequences. In summary, pgHMA is an easily-applied method for approximating phylogenetic diversity and population trends.

Influence of Holocene habitat availability on Pacific gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) population dynamics as inferred from whole mitochondrial genome sequences and environmental niche modeling

Environmental changes since the Pleistocene and commercial whaling in the last few centuries have drastically reduced many whale populations, including gray whales in the North Pacific. Herein we use complete mitogenome sequences from 74 individuals to evaluate gray whale phylogeography and historical demography, then use environmental niche modeling to assess how habitat availability has changed through time for Pacific gray whales. We identify a large degree of haplotype sharing between gray whales sampled in Russian and Mexican waters, coupled with very limited matrilineal population structure. Confirming previous studies, our environmental niche models showed a decrease in available habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum, but we find no genetic signals of recent population declines in mitochondrial genomes despite both sustained habitat loss and a commercial whaling bottleneck. Our results illustrate the complex dynamics of baleen whale biogeography since the Holocene as well as the difficulty in detecting recent demographic bottlenecks from mitochondrial DNA sequences.

The effect of landscape and human settlement on the genetic differentiation and presence of Paragonimus species in Mesoamerica

Foodborne diseases are a neglected research area, and despite the existence of many tools for diagnosis and genetic studies, very little is known about the effect of the landscape on the genetic diversity and presence of parasites. One of these foodborne disease is paragonimiasis, caused by trematodes of the genus Paragonimus, which is responsible for a high number of infections in humans and wild animals. The main Paragonimus sp reported in Mesoamerica is Paragonimus mexicanus, yet there are doubts about its correct identification as a unique species throughout the region. This, together with a lack of detailed knowledge about their ecology, evolution and differentiation, may complicate the implementation of control strategies across the Mesoamerican region. We had the goal of delimiting the species of P. mexicanus found throughout Mesoamerica and determining the effect of landscape and geology on the diversity and presence of the parasite. We found support for the delimitation of five genetic groups. The genetic differentiation among these groups was positively affected by elevation and the isolation of river basins, while the parasite's presence was affected negatively only by the presence of human settlements. These results suggest that areas with lower elevation, connected rivers basins, and an absence of human settlements have low genetic differentiation and high P. mexicanus presence, which may increase the risk of Paragonimus infection. These demonstrate the importance of accurate species delimitation and consideration of the effect of landscape on Paragonimus in the proposal of adequate control strategies. However, other landscape variables cannot be discarded, including temperature, rainfall regime, and spatial scale (local, landscape and regional). These additional variables were not explored here, and should be considered in future studies.

Holocene population expansion of a tropical bee coincides with early human colonization of Fiji rather than climate change

There is substantial debate about the relative roles of climate change and human activities on biodiversity and species demographies over the Holocene. In some cases, these two factors can be resolved using fossil data, but for many taxa such data are not available. Inferring historical demographies of taxa has become common, but the methodologies are mostly recent and their shortcomings often unexplored. The bee genus Homalictus is developing into a tractable model system for understanding how native bee populations in tropical islands have responded to past climate change. We greatly expand on previous studies using sequences of the mitochondrial gene COI from 474 specimens and between 171 and 3928 autosomal (DArTSeq) single nucleotide polymorphism loci from 19 specimens of the native Fijian bee, Homalictus fijiensis, to explore its historical demography using coalescent and mismatch analyses. We ask whether past changes in demography were human- or climate-driven, while considering analytical assumptions. We show that inferred changes in population sizes are too recent to be explained by past climate change. Instead we find that a dramatic increase in population size for the main island of Viti Levu coincides with increasing occupation by humans and their modification of the environment. We found no corresponding change in bee population size for another major island, Kadavu, where human populations and agricultural activities have been historically very low. Our analyses indicate that molecular approaches can be used to disentangle the impacts of humans and climate change on a major tropical pollinator and that stringent analytical approaches are required for reliable interpretation of results.

Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which allow us to back-cast the range occupied by a species based on its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two approaches by applying them to a large data set of 102 Holarctic bird species, for which both mitochondrial DNA sequences and distribution maps are available, to reconstruct their dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most species experienced an increase in effective population size (N_e , as estimated by BSPs) as well as an increase in geographical range (as reconstructed by SDMs) since the LGM; however, we found no correlation between the magnitude of changes in N_e and range size. The only clear signal we could detect was a later and greater increase in N_e for wetland birds compared to species that live in other habitats, a probable consequence of a delayed and more extensive increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest that this pattern might be linked to changes in population densities, which can be independent of range changes, and caution that interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading.

Multiple Merger Genealogies in Outbreaks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The Kingman coalescent and its developments are often considered among the most important advances in population genetics of the last decades. Demographic inference based on coalescent theory has been used to reconstruct the population dynamics and evolutionary history of several species, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), an important human pathogen causing tuberculosis. One key assumption of the Kingman coalescent is that the number of descendants of different individuals does not vary strongly, and violating this assumption could lead to severe biases caused by model misspecification. Individual lineages of MTB are expected to vary strongly in reproductive success because 1) MTB is potentially under constant selection due to the pressure of the host immune system and of antibiotic treatment, 2) MTB undergoes repeated population bottlenecks when it transmits from one host to the next, and 3) some hosts show much higher transmission rates compared with the average (superspreaders).

Here, we used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to test whether multiple-merger coalescents (MMC), a class of models that allow for large variation in reproductive success among lineages, are more appropriate models to study MTB populations. We considered 11 publicly available whole-genome sequence data sets sampled from local MTB populations and outbreaks and found that MMC had a better fit compared with the Kingman coalescent for 10 of the 11 data sets. These results indicate that the null model for analyzing MTB outbreaks should be reassessed and that past findings based on the Kingman coalescent need to be revisited.