Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt

COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.

'Learn from the lessons and don't forget them': identifying transferable lessons for COVID-19 from meningitis A, yellow fever and Ebola virus disease vaccination campaigns

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 vaccines are now being distributed to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with global urgency surrounding national vaccination plans. LMICs have significant experience implementing vaccination campaigns to respond to epidemic threats but are often hindered by chronic health system challenges. We sought to identify transferable lessons for COVID-19 vaccination from the rollout of three vaccines that targeted adult groups in Africa and South America: MenAfriVac (meningitis A); 17D (yellow fever) and rVSV-ZEBOV (Ebola virus disease).

METHODS

We conducted a rapid literature review and 24 semi-structured interviews with technical experts who had direct implementation experience with the selected vaccines in Africa and South America. We identified barriers, enablers, and key lessons from the literature and from participants' experiences. Interview data were analysed thematically according to seven implementation domains.

RESULTS

Participants highlighted multiple components of vaccination campaigns that are instrumental for achieving high coverage. Community engagement is an essential and effective tool, requiring dedicated time, funding and workforce. Involving local health workers is a key enabler, as is collaborating with community leaders to map social groups and tailor vaccination strategies to their needs. Vaccination team recruitment and training strategies need to be enhanced to support vaccination campaigns. Although recognised as challenging, integrating vaccination campaigns with other routine health services can be highly beneficial if well planned and coordinated across health programmes and with communities.

CONCLUSION

As supplies of COVID-19 vaccines become available to LMICs, countries need to prepare to efficiently roll out the vaccine, encourage uptake among eligible groups and respond to potential community concerns. Lessons from the implementation of these three vaccines that targeted adults in LMICs can be used to inform best practice for COVID-19 and other epidemic vaccination campaigns.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

Background

Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.

Methods

We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption).

Results

Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of >1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns.

Conclusions

The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Understanding the Role of Duration of Vaccine Protection with MenAfriVac: Simulating Alternative Vaccination Strategies

We previously developed a transmission dynamic model of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA) with the aim of forecasting the relative benefits of different immunisation strategies with MenAfriVac. Our findings suggested that the most effective strategy in maintaining disease control was the introduction of MenAfriVac into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). This strategy is currently being followed by the countries of the meningitis belt. Since then, the persistence of vaccine-induced antibodies has been further studied and new data suggest that immune response is influenced by the age at vaccination. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of both the duration and age-specificity of vaccine-induced protection on our model predictions and explore how the optimal vaccination strategy may change in the long-term. We adapted our previous model and considered plausible alternative immunization strategies, including the addition of a booster dose to the current schedule, as well as the routine vaccination of school-aged children for a range of different assumptions regarding the duration of protection. To allow for a comparison between the different strategies, we use several metrics, including the median age of infection, the number of people needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one case, the age distribution of cases for each strategy, as well as the time it takes for the number of cases to start increasing after the honeymoon period (resurgence). None of the strategies explored in this work is superior in all respects. This is especially true when vaccine-induced protection is the same regardless of the age at vaccination. Uncertainty in the duration of protection is important. For duration of protection lasting for an average of 18 years or longer, the model predicts elimination of NmA cases. Assuming that vaccine protection is more durable for individuals vaccinated after the age of 5 years, routine immunization of older children would be more efficient in reducing disease incidence and would also result in a fewer number of doses necessary to prevent one case. Assuming that elimination does not occur, adding a booster dose is likely to prevent most cases but the caveat will be a more costly intervention. These results can be used to understand important sources of uncertainty around MenAfriVac and support decisions by policymakers.

The environmental drivers of bacterial meningitis epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, central Africa

INTRODUCTION

Bacterial meningitis still constitutes an important threat in Africa. In the meningitis belt, a clear seasonal pattern in the incidence of meningococcal disease during the dry season has been previously correlated with several environmental parameters like dust and sand particles as well as the Harmattan winds. In parallel, the evidence of seasonality in meningitis dynamics and its environmental variables remain poorly studied outside the meningitis belt. This study explores several environmental factors associated with meningitis cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), central Africa, outside the meningitis belt area.

METHODS

Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis' tests were used to establish the difference between the different health zones, climate and vegetation types in relation to both the number of cases and attack rates for the period 2000-2018. The relationships between the number of meningitis cases for the different health zones and environmental and socio-economical parameters collected were modeled using different generalized linear (GLMs) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and different error structure in the different models, i.e., Poisson, binomial negative, zero-inflated binomial negative and more elaborated multi-hierarchical zero-inflated binomial negative models, with randomization of certain parameters or factors (health zones, vegetation and climate types). Comparing the different statistical models, the model with the smallest Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were selected as the best ones. 515 different health zones from 26 distinct provinces were considered for the construction of the different GLM and GLMM models.

RESULTS

Non-parametric bivariate statistics showed that there were more meningitis cases in urban health zones than in rural conditions (χ2 = 6.910, p-value = 0.009), in areas dominated by savannah landscape than in areas with dense forest or forest in mountainous areas (χ2 = 15.185, p-value = 0.001), and with no significant difference between climate types (χ2 = 1.211, p-value = 0,449). Additionally, no significant difference was observed for attack rate between the two types of heath zones (χ2 = 0.982, p-value = 0.322). Conversely, strong differences in attack rate values were obtained for vegetation types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001) and climate types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001). This work demonstrates that, all other parameters kept constant, an urban health zone located at high latitude and longitude eastwards, located at low-altitude like in valley ecosystems predominantly covered by savannah biome, with a humid tropical climate are at higher risk for the development of meningitis. In addition, the regions with mean range temperature and a population with a low index of economic well-being (IEW) constitute the perfect conditions for the development of meningitis in DRC.

CONCLUSION

In a context of global environmental change, particularly climate change, our findings tend to show that an interplay of different environmental and socio-economic drivers are important to consider in the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis epidemics in DRC. This information is important to help improving meningitis control strategies in a large country located outside of the so-called meningitis belt.

Theoretical assessment of the impact of desert aerosols on the dynamical transmission of meningitidis serogroup A

This paper has been motivated by the following biological question: how influential are desert aerosols in the transmission of meningitidis serogroup A (MenA)? A mathematical model for the dynamical transmission of MenA is considered, with the aim of investigating the impact of desert aerosols. Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed in order to determine the impact of related parameters on meningitis outbreak. We derive the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]. We prove that there exists a threshold parameter [Formula: see text] such that when [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS). However, when [Formula: see text], the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. At the endemic level, we show that the number of infectious individuals in the presence of desert aerosols is larger than the corresponding number without the presence of desert aerosols. In conjunction with the inequality [Formula: see text] where [Formula: see text] is the basic reproduction number without desert aerosols, we found that the ingestion of aerosols by carriers will increase the endemic level, and the severity of the outbreak. This suggests that the control of MenA passes through a combination of a large coverage vaccination of young susceptible individuals and the production of a vaccine with a high level of efficacy as well as respecting the hygienic rules to avoid the inhalation of desert aerosols. Theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%-75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81-$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt

We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.

Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Successful African introduction of a new Group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine: Future challenges and next steps

The introduction of a new Group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVacR, has been a important public health success. Group A meningococcal meningitis has disappeared in all countries where the new Men A conjugate vaccine has been used at public health scale. However, continued control of Group A disease in sub-Saharan Africa will require that community immunity against Group A meningococci be maintained. Modeling studies have shown that unless herd immunity is maintained Group A meningococcal disease will return. To ensure that African populations remain protected birth cohorts must be protected with an EPI formulation of MenAfriVacR (5 mcg) given at 9 months with Measles 1. In addition, populations born after the initial 1-29 year old campaigns and consequently not yet immunized with the new Men A conjugate vaccine, will have to be immunized in country-specific catch-up campaigns. Countries with poor EPI coverage (Measles 1 coverage < 60%) will likely need quinquennial vaccination campaigns aimed at covering 1-4 year olds. Implementing these strategies is the only sure way of ensuring that Group A meningococcal meningitis epidemics will not recur. A second problem that requires urgent attention is the challenge of dealing with Non-A meningococcal meningitis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. Groups C, W and X meningococci are well-established circulating strains in sub-Saharan Africa and are responsible for yearly focal meningitis epidemics that vary in severity and remain unpredictable as to size and geographic distribution. For this reason, polyvalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines that are affordable and appropriate for the African context must be developed and introduced. These new meningococcal vaccines when combined with more affordable pneumococcal conjugate vaccines offer the promise of a meningitis-free Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium ℰ₀, when the effective reproduction number ℛ_VT ≤ 1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium ℰ₁, when ℛ_VT > 1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at ℛ_VT = 1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot) to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education). Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture) are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.

The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of a conjugate vaccine for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis has dramatically reduced disease in the African meningitis belt. In this context, important questions remain about the performance of different vaccine policies that target remaining serogroups. Here, we estimate the health impact and cost associated with several alternative vaccination policies in Burkina Faso.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed and calibrated a mathematical model of meningococcal transmission to project the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and costs associated with the current Base policy (serogroup A conjugate vaccination at 9 months, as part of the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI], plus district-specific reactive vaccination campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide [PMP] vaccine in response to outbreaks) and three alternative policies: (1) Base Prime: novel polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccine replaces the serogroup A conjugate in EPI and is also used in reactive campaigns; (2) Prevention 1: PMC used in EPI and in a nationwide catch-up campaign for 1-18-year-olds; and (3) Prevention 2: Prevention 1, except the nationwide campaign includes individuals up to 29 years old. Over a 30-year simulation period, Prevention 2 would avert 78% of the meningococcal cases (95% prediction interval: 63%-90%) expected under the Base policy if serogroup A is not replaced by remaining serogroups after elimination, and would avert 87% (77%-93%) of meningococcal cases if complete strain replacement occurs. Compared to the Base policy and at the PMC vaccine price of US$4 per dose, strategies that use PMC vaccine (i.e., Base Prime and Preventions 1 and 2) are expected to be cost saving if strain replacement occurs, and would cost US$51 (-US$236, US$490), US$188 (-US$97, US$626), and US$246 (-US$53, US$703) per DALY averted, respectively, if strain replacement does not occur. An important potential limitation of our study is the simplifying assumption that all circulating meningococcal serogroups can be aggregated into a single group; while this assumption is critical for model tractability, it would compromise the insights derived from our model if the effectiveness of the vaccine differs markedly between serogroups or if there are complex between-serogroup interactions that influence the frequency and magnitude of future meningitis epidemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a vaccination strategy that includes a catch-up nationwide immunization campaign in young adults with a PMC vaccine and the addition of this new vaccine into EPI is cost-effective and would avert a substantial portion of meningococcal cases expected under the current World Health Organization-recommended strategy of reactive vaccination. This analysis is limited to Burkina Faso and assumes that polyvalent vaccines offer equal protection against all meningococcal serogroups; further studies are needed to evaluate the robustness of this assumption and applicability for other countries in the meningitis belt.

Correction: Identifying Optimal Vaccination Strategies for Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis Conjugate Vaccine in the African Meningitis Belt

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063605.].

Lessons from the Meningitis Vaccine Project

From 2001 to 2017 the Meningitis Vaccine Project (MVP), a Gates Foundation funded partnership between PATH and the World Health Organization (WHO), successfully developed, tested, licensed, and introduced an affordable new Group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVac, in sub-Saharan Africa. The vaccine was well received, and from 2010 to 2016, over 260 million Africans have received a dose of the vaccine in campaigns largely directed at 1–29-year olds. The public health impact has been dramatic with the elimination of Group A meningococcal infections wherever the vaccine has been used at public health scale. Over its 16-year life span, MVP faced many challenges, and lessons were learned that may be of interest to other groups seeking to develop vaccine products for resource-poor countries. We have chosen to highlight six elements that were keys to the success of the project: (a) country and African regional engagement during all phases of the project; (b) the evolution of the WHO/PATH partnership; (c) funding the introduction of MenAfriVac in meningitis belt countries; (d) regulatory challenges; (e) clinical trials in Africa and India; and (f ) the realities of vaccine development partnerships.

Bacterial meningitis epidemiology and return of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A cases in Burkina Faso in the five years following MenAfriVac mass vaccination campaign

Background

Historically, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA) caused large meningitis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, Burkina Faso became the first country to implement a national meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) campaign. We analyzed nationwide meningitis surveillance data from Burkina Faso for the 5 years following MACV introduction.

Methods

We examined Burkina Faso’s aggregate reporting and national laboratory-confirmed case-based meningitis surveillance data from 2011–2015. We calculated incidence (cases per 100,000 persons), and described reported NmA cases.

Results

In 2011–2015, Burkina Faso reported 20,389 cases of suspected meningitis. A quarter (4,503) of suspected meningitis cases with cerebrospinal fluid specimens were laboratory-confirmed as either S. pneumoniae (57%), N. meningitidis (40%), or H. influenzae (2%). Average adjusted annual national incidence of meningococcal meningitis was 3.8 (range: 2.0–10.2 annually) and was highest among infants aged <1 year (8.4). N. meningitidis serogroup W caused the majority (64%) of meningococcal meningitis among all age groups. Only six confirmed NmA cases were reported in 2011–2015. Five cases were in children who were too young (n = 2) or otherwise not vaccinated (n = 3) during the 2010 MACV mass vaccination campaign; one case had documented MACV receipt, representing the first documented MACV failure.

Conclusions

Meningococcal meningitis incidence in Burkina Faso remains relatively low following MACV introduction. However, a substantial burden remains and NmA transmission has persisted. MACV integration into routine childhood immunization programs is essential to ensure continued protection.

Parameter and state estimation in a Neisseria meningitidis model: A study case of Niger

Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a major cause of bacterial meningitidis outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East. The availability of yearly reported meningitis cases in the African meningitis belt offers the opportunity to analyze the transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies. In this paper, we propose a method for the estimation of state variables that are not accessible to measurements and an unknown parameter in a Nm model. We suppose that the yearly number of Nm induced mortality and the total population are known inputs, which can be obtained from data, and the yearly number of new Nm cases is the model output. We also suppose that the Nm transmission rate is an unknown parameter. We first show how the recruitment rate into the population can be estimated using real data of the total population and Nm induced mortality. Then, we use an auxiliary system called observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of the original model. This observer does not use the unknown infection transmission rate but only uses the known inputs and the model output. This allows us to estimate unmeasured state variables such as the number of carriers that play an important role in the transmission of the infection and the total number of infected individuals within a human community. Finally, we also provide a simple method to estimate the unknown Nm transmission rate. In order to validate the estimation results, numerical simulations are conducted using real data of Niger.

Towards understanding the epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis in the African meningitis belt: a multi-disciplinary overview

OBJECTIVES

Neisseria meningitidis is the major cause of seasonal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt. In the changing context of a reduction in incidence of serogroup A and an increase in incidence of serogroups W and C and of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a better understanding of the determinants driving the disease transmission dynamics remains crucial to improving bacterial meningitis control.

METHODS

The literature was searched to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the determinants of meningitis transmission dynamics in the African meningitis belt.

RESULTS

Seasonal hyperendemicity is likely predominantly caused by increased invasion rates, sporadic localized epidemics by increased transmission rates, and larger pluri-annual epidemic waves by changing population immunity. Carriage likely involves competition for colonization and cross-immunity. The duration of immunity likely depends on the acquisition type. Major risk factors include dust and low humidity, and presumably human contact rates and co-infections; social studies highlighted environmental and dietary factors, with supernatural explanations.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should focus on implementing multi-country, longitudinal seroprevalence and epidemiological studies, validating immune markers of protection, and improving surveillance, including more systematic molecular characterizations of the bacteria. Integrating climate and social factors into disease control strategies represents a high priority for optimizing the public health response and anticipating the geographic evolution of the African meningitis belt.

Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt

BACKGROUND

The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1-29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term.

METHODS

We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years' average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac.

Serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccines in Africa

Serogroup A meningococcal epidemics have been a recurrent public health problem, especially in resource-poor countries of Africa. Recently, the administration in mass vaccination campaigns of a single dose of the monovalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVac, to the 1-29 year-old population of sub-Saharan Africa has prevented epidemics of meningitis caused by serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis. This strategy has also been shown to provide herd protection of the non-vaccinated population. Development of meningococcal conjugate vaccines covering other serogroups and enhanced use of the pneumococcal and Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccines must be pursued to fully control bacterial meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa.

Serogroup A meningococcal conjugate (PsA-TT) vaccine coverage and measles vaccine coverage in Burkina Faso--implications for introduction of PsA-TT into the Expanded Programme on Immunization

BACKGROUND

A new serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, MenAfriVac™) has been developed to combat devastating serogroup A Neisseria meningitis (MenA) epidemics in Africa. A mass immunization campaign targeting 1-29 year olds was conducted in Burkina Faso in December 2010. Protection of subsequent infant cohorts will be necessary through either introduction of PsA-TT into the routine Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) or periodic repeat mass vaccination campaigns.

OBJECTIVES

To inform future immunization policy for PsA-TT vaccination of infants through a comparison of PsA-TT campaign vaccination coverage and routine measles-containing vaccine (MCV) coverage in Burkina Faso.

METHODS

A national survey was conducted in Burkina Faso during December 17-27, 2011 using stratified cluster sampling to assess PsA-TT vaccine coverage achieved by the 2010 nationwide immunization campaign among 2-30 year olds and routine MCV coverage among 12-23 month olds. Coverage estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated, reasons for non-vaccination and methods of campaign communication were described, and a multivariable analysis for factors associated with vaccination was conducted.

RESULTS

National overall PsA-TT campaign coverage was 95.9% (95% CI: 95.0-96.7) with coverage greater than 90% all 13 regions of Burkina Faso. National overall routine MCV coverage was 92.5% (95% CI: 90.5-94.1), but ranged from 75.3% to 95.3% by region. The primary predictor for PsA-TT vaccination among all age groups was a head of household informed of the campaign. PsA-TT vaccination was more likely in residents of rural settings, whereas MCV vaccination was more likely in residents of urban settings.

CONCLUSION

Overall national vaccination rates in Burkina Faso were similar for PsA-TT and MCV vaccine. The regions with MCV coverage below targets may be at risk for sub-optimal vaccination coverage if PsA-TT is introduced in EPI. These results highlight the need for assessments of routine vaccination coverage to guide PsA-TT immunization policy in meningitis belt countries.

Prevention of rare diseases: how revolutionary techniques can help vulnerable individuals-the example of serogroup B meningococcal infection

In countries with established programmes for vaccination of infants, toddlers and adolescents with meningococcal conjugate vaccines, serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease remains the major cause of septicaemia and meningitis in the paediatric and adolescent age groups. Novartis has developed a serogroup B meningococcal vaccine, 4CMenB, to meet this need. We reviewed all 4CMenB studies. The studies found 4CMenB to be highly immunogenic when administered in all schedules, with protective antibody levels (serum bactericidal antibody titres ≥4 or ≥5 with human complement, hSBA) against serogroup B strains expressing vaccine antigens in >95% of vaccinated cohorts. When antibody levels waned, all tested groups demonstrated booster responses. Although possibly an underestimation, the Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS) technique predicts that global coverage of 4CMenB against all serogroup B strains is in the range 66% (Canada) to 91% (USA). The vaccine was found to be generally well tolerated, although local and systemic reactions, notably fever in infants, typical of many vaccines, were increased following concomitant administration of 4CMenB with routine vaccines. When tested, prophylactic paracetamol significantly decreased the frequency and severity of reactions in infants, with no clinically significant impact on immunogenicity of 4CMenB or concomitant routine vaccines. The vaccine is approved for use in the following age groups in the European Union (2 months+), Canada (2 months through 17 years), Australia (2 months+) and Chile (2 months+), following clinical evaluation in 4843 infants and toddlers, and 1712 adolescents and adults, in schedules including a three-dose (2, 3, 4 or 2, 4, 6 months) and a two-dose (6-11 months) infant series with a booster in the second year of life, a two-dose series in toddlers (12-23 months) and children (2-10 years) given 2 months apart (with a booster at least in the EU), and a two-dose series in adolescents (11-17 years) given 1-6 months apart. 4CMenB presents a solution to the unmet medical need of offering protection against serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease in all age groups above 2 months.

Persistent low carriage of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis two years after mass vaccination with the meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVac

BACKGROUND

The conjugate vaccine against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA), MenAfriVac, is currently being introduced throughout the African meningitis belt. In repeated multicentre cross-sectional studies in Burkina Faso we demonstrated a significant effect of vaccination on NmA carriage for one year following mass vaccination in 2010. A new multicentre carriage study was performed in October-November 2012, two years after MenAfriVac mass vaccination.

METHODS

Oropharyngeal samples were collected and analysed for presence of N. meningitidis (Nm) from a representative selection of 1-29-year-olds in three districts in Burkina Faso using the same procedures as in previous years. Characterization of Nm isolates included serogrouping, multilocus sequence typing, and porA and fetA sequencing. A small sample of invasive isolates collected during the epidemic season of 2012 through the national surveillance system were also analysed.

RESULTS

From a total of 4964 oropharyngeal samples, overall meningococcal carriage prevalence was 7.86%. NmA prevalence was 0.02% (1 carrier), significantly lower (OR, 0.05, P = 0.005, 95% CI, 0.006-0.403) than pre-vaccination prevalence (0.39%). The single NmA isolate was sequence type (ST)-7, P1.20,9;F3-1, a clone last identified in Burkina Faso in 2003. Nm serogroup W (NmW) dominated with a carriage prevalence of 6.85%, representing 87.2% of the isolates. Of 161 NmW isolates characterized by molecular techniques, 94% belonged to the ST-11 clonal complex and 6% to the ST-175 complex. Nm serogroup X (NmX) was carried by 0.60% of the participants and ST-181 accounted for 97% of the NmX isolates. Carriage prevalence of serogroup Y and non-groupable Nm was 0.20% and 0.18%, respectively. Among the 20 isolates recovered from meningitis cases, NmW dominated (70%), followed by NmX (25%). ST-2859, the only ST with a serogroup A capsule found in Burkina Faso since 2004, was not found with another capsule, neither among carriage nor invasive isolates.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant reduction of NmA carriage still persisted two years following MenAfriVac vaccination, and no cases of NmA meningitis were recorded. High carriage prevalence of NmW ST-11 was consistent with the many cases of NmW meningitis in the epidemic season of 2012 and the high proportion of NmW ST-11 among the characterized invasive isolates.

Meningitis in HIV-positive patients in sub-Saharan Africa: a review

INTRODUCTION

Meningitis is one of the leading causes of death among patients living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. There is no widespread tracking of the incidence rates of causative agents among patients living with HIV, yet the aetiologies of meningitis are different than those of the general population.

METHODS

We reviewed the scientific literature published in PubMed to determine the incidence rates of meningitis among hospitalized people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa and report our findings from seven studies across sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULTS

We found high rates of cryptococcal meningitis (19-68%). Tuberculous meningitis was lower (1-36%), although some centres included possible cases as "other" meningitis; therefore, this may not be a true representation of the total cases. Pyogenic meningitis ranged from 6 to 30% and "other" meningitis ranged from 7 to 28% of all reported cases of meningitis. Mortality rates ranged from 25 to 68%. This review describes the most common aetiologies and provides practical diagnostic, treatment and prevention considerations as they apply to the individual living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnosis is often limited, and wider availability of accurate and low-cost laboratory diagnostics is desperately needed for prompt diagnosis and initiation of appropriate treatment. Wider acceptance and adoption of available preventative modalities can decrease the incidence of potentially fatal central nervous system infections in African patients living with HIV.

Vaccines safety; effect of supervision or SMS on reporting rates of adverse events following immunization (AEFI) with meningitis vaccine (MenAfriVac™): a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

To ensure vaccines safety, given the weaknesses of the national pharmacovigilance system in Cameroon, there is a need to identify effective interventions that can contribute to improving AEFI reporting.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of: (i) sending weekly SMS, or (ii) weekly supervisory visits on AEFI reporting rate during a meningitis immunization campaign conducted in Cameroon in 2012 using the meningitis A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™).

METHODS

Health facilities that met the inclusion criteria were randomly assigned to receive: (i) a weekly standardized SMS, (ii) a weekly standardized supervisory visits or (iii) no intervention. The primary outcome was the reported AEFI incidence rate from week 5 to 8 after the immunization campaign. Poisson regression model was used to estimate the effect of interventions after adjusting for health region, type of health facility, type and position of health workers as well as the cumulative number of AEFI reported from weeks 1 to 4.

RESULTS

A total of 348 (77.2%) of 451 health facility were included, and 116 assigned to each of three groups. The incidence rate of reported AEFI per 100 health facility per week was 20.0 (15.9-24.1) in the SMS group, 40.2 (34.4-46.0) in supervision group and 13.6 (10.1-16.9) in the control group. Supervision led to a significant increase of AEFI reporting rate compared to SMS [adjusted RR=2.1 (1.6-2.7); p<0.001] and control [RR=2.8(2.1-3.7); p<0.001)] groups. The effect of SMS led to some increase in AEFI reporting rate compared to the control group, but the difference was not statistically significant [RR=1.4(0.8-1.6); p=0.07)].

CONCLUSION

Supervision was more effective than SMS or routine surveillance in improving AEFI reporting rate. It should be part of any AEFI surveillance system. SMS could be useful in improving AEFI reporting rates but strategies need to be found to improve its effectiveness, and thus maximize its benefits.