Evaluating the quality of national mortality statistics from civil registration in South Africa, 1997-2007

Population-Based Temporal Trends and Ethnic Disparity in Cervical Cancer Mortality in South Africa (1999-2018): A Join Point and Age-Period-Cohort Regression Analyses

Cervical cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths among women in low- and middle-income countries such as South Africa. The current impact of national cervical cancer control and sexual and reproductive health interventions in South Africa reduce its burden. The aim of this study was to assess the trends in cervical cancer mortality and its relation to breast and gynaecological cancers in South Africa from 1999 to 2018. We conducted joinpoint regression analyses of the trends in crude and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for cervical cancer mortality in South Africa from 1999 to 2018. An age−period−cohort regression analysis was also conducted to determine the impact of age, period, and cohort on cervical cancer mortality trends. Analyses were stratified by ethnicity. Cervical cancer (n = 59,190, 43.92%, 95% CI: 43.65−44.18%) was responsible for about 43.9% of breast and gynecological cancer deaths. The mortality rate of cervical cancer (from 11.7 to 14.08 per 100,000) increased at about 0.9% per annum (Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC): 0.9% (AAPC: 0.9%, p-value < 0.001)), and young women aged 25 to 49 years (AAPC: 1.2−3.5%, p-value < 0.001) had increased rates. The risk of cervical cancer mortality increased among successive birth cohorts. In 2018, cervical cancer mortality rate among Blacks (16.74 per 100,000 women) was about twice the rates among Coloureds (8.53 deaths per 100,000 women) and approximately four-fold among Indians/Asians (4.16 deaths per 100,000 women), and Whites (3.06 deaths per 100,000 women). Cervical cancer control efforts should be enhanced in South Africa and targeted at ethnic difference, age, period, and cohort effects.

Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa

This paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were recorded can be used to monitor excess death during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, both nationally, and sub-nationally, in a country with a vital registration system that is neither up to date nor complete. Apart from suggesting an approach for estimating completeness of reporting at a sub-national level, the application produces estimates of the number of deaths in excess of those expected in the absence of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that are highly correlated with the confirmed number of COVID-19 deaths over time, but at a level 2.5 to 3 times higher than the official numbers of COVID-19 deaths. Apportioning the observed excess deaths more precisely to COVID, COVID-related and collateral deaths, and non-COVID deaths averted by interventions with reduced mobility and gatherings, etc., requires access to real-time cause-of-death information. It is suggested that the transition from ICD-10 to ICD-11 should be used as an opportunity to change from a paper-based system to electronic capture of the medical cause-of-death information.

Safer spaces: The impact of a reduction in road fatalities on the life expectancy of South Africans

In this paper we determine the burden on society of fatalities resulting from road traffic injuries (RTIs) in South Africa. We express the burden in terms of reduced life expectancy and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Our main data source is the Injury Mortality Survey (IMS), a retrospective descriptive study carried out in South Africa. Using the mortality rates by sex and age from the IMS we calculate actual life expectancy at birth. In our counterfactual analysis we assume a 15 % reduction in road fatalities per year over a period of 10 years. A comparison of the estimated actual and counterfactual life expectancies suggests that the average gain in life expectancy at birth would be 0.58 years. Since the overwhelming majority of road traffic fatalities are male (75.7 %), there is a considerable gender difference. Men would gain on average 0.85 years while women would gain 0.30 years in life expectancy, closing the gender gap in life expectancy by about 14 %. We then discuss how a reduction in RTIs could be achieved. South Africa's legislation addresses several of the important aspects of road safety (e.g. seat belt use, drink driving restrictions, speed limits, infrastructure improvements), however, enforcement is relatively weak and should be improved. There are a raft of measures that have been well researched in other countries, most interventions aim to modify the behaviour of road users and have been found to be cost effective. In addition to stricter enforcement, evidence from social science suggests that compliance could be increased through a change in social norms regarding road usage.

Mortality trends and access to care for cardiovascular diseases in Agincourt, rural South Africa: a mixed-methods analysis of verbal autopsy data

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular diseases are the second leading cause of mortality behind HIV/AIDS in South Africa. This study investigates cardiovascular disease mortality trends in rural South Africa over 20+ years and the associated barriers to accessing care, using verbal autopsy data.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods approach was used, combining descriptive analysis of mortality rates over time, by condition, sex and age group, quantitative analysis of circumstances of mortality (CoM) indicators and free text narratives of the final illness, and qualitative analysis of free texts.

SETTING

This study was done using verbal autopsy data from the Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System site in Agincourt, rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases (acute cardiac disease, stroke, renal failure and other unspecified cardiac disease) from 1993 to 2015 were extracted from verbal autopsy data.

RESULTS

Between 1993 and 2015, of 15 305 registered deaths over 1 851 449 person-years of follow-up, 1434 (9.4%) were attributable to cardiovascular disease, corresponding to a crude mortality rate of 0.77 per 1000 person-years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate increased from 0.34 to 1.12 between 1993 and 2015. Stroke was the dominant cause of death, responsible for 41.0% (588/1434) of all cardiovascular deaths across all years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate was significantly higher in women and increased with age. The main delays in access to care during the final illness were in seeking and receiving care. Qualitative free-text analysis highlighted delays not captured in the CoM, principally communication between the clinician and patient or family. Half of cases initially sought care outside a hospital setting (50.9%, 199/391).

CONCLUSIONS

The temporal increase in deaths due to cardiovascular disease highlights the need for greater prevention and management strategies for these conditions, particularly for the women. Strategies to improve seeking and receiving care during the final illness are needed.

Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends by sex and population group in South Africa: 2002-2014

BACKGROUND

South Africa (SA) has experienced a rapid transition in the Human Development Index (HDI) over the past decade, which had an effect on the incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to provide CRC incidence and mortality trends by population group and sex in SA from 2002 to 2014.

METHODS

Incidence data were extracted from the South African National Cancer Registry and mortality data obtained from Statistics South Africa (STATS SA), for the period 2002 to 2014. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using the STATS SA mid-year population as the denominator and the Segi world standard population data for standardisation. A Joinpoint regression analysis was computed for the CRC ASIR and ASMR by population group and sex.

RESULTS

A total of 33,232 incident CRC cases and 26,836 CRC deaths were reported during the study period. Of the CRC cases reported, 54% were males and 46% were females, and among deaths reported, 47% were males and 53% were females. Overall, there was a 2.5% annual average percentage change (AAPC) increase in ASIR from 2002 to 2014 (95% CI: 0.6-4.5, p-value < 0.001). For ASMR overall, there was 1.3% increase from 2002 to 2014 (95% CI: 0.1-2.6, p-value < 0.001). The ASIR and ASMR among population groups were stable, with the exception of the Black population group. The ASIR increased consistently at 4.3% for black males (95% CI: 1.9-6.7, p-value < 0.001) and 3.4% for black females (95% CI: 1.5-5.3, p-value < 0.001) from 2002 to 2014, respectively. Similarly, ASMR for black males and females increased by 4.2% (95% CI: 2.0-6.5, p-value < 0.001) and 3.4% (, 95%CI: 2.0-4.8, p-value < 0.01) from 2002 to 2014, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The disparities in the CRC incidence and mortality trends may reflect socioeconomic inequalities across different population groups in SA. The rapid increase in CRC trends among the Black population group is concerning and requires further investigation and increased efforts for cancer prevention, early screening and diagnosis, as well as better access to cancer treatment.

Excess Mortality Due to External Causes in Women in the South African Mining Industry: 2013-2015

Mining is a recognized high-risk industry with a relatively high occurrence of occupational injuries and disease. In this study, we looked at the differences in mortality between male and female miners in South Africa. Data from Statistics South Africa regarding occupation and cause of death in the combined years 2013–2015 were analyzed. Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) were calculated to investigate excess mortality due to external causes of death by sex in miners and in manufacturing laborers. Results: Women miners died at a significantly younger age on average (44 years) than all women (60 years), women manufacturers (53 years), and male miners (55 yrs). There was a significantly increased proportion of deaths due to external causes in women miners (12.4%) compared to all women (4.8%) and women manufacturers (4.6%). Significantly increased PMRs were seen in car occupant accidents (467, 95% confidence interval (CI) 151–1447), firearm discharge (464, 95% CI 220–974), and contact with blunt objects (2220 95% CI 833–5915). Conclusion: This descriptive study showed excess deaths in women miners due to external causes. Road accidents, firearm discharge, and contact with blunt objects PMRs were significantly increased. Further research is required to confirm the underlying reasons for external causes of death and to develop recommendations to protect women miners.

Trends in Suicide Mortality in South Africa, 1997 to 2016

Suicide rates worldwide are declining; however, less is known about the patterns and trends in mortality from suicide in sub-Saharan Africa. This study evaluates trends in suicide rates and years of potential life lost from death registration data in South Africa from 1997 to 2016. Suicide (X60–X84 and Y87) was coded using the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Changes in mortality rate trends were analysed using joinpoint regression analysis. The 20-year study examines 8573 suicides in South Africa, comprising 0.1% of all deaths involving persons 15 years and older. Rates of suicide per 100,000 population were 2.07 in men and 0.49 in women. Joinpoint regression analyses showed that, while the overall mortality rate for male suicides remained stable, mortality rates due to hanging and poisoning increased by 3.9% and 3.5% per year, respectively. Female suicide mortality rates increased by 12.6% from 1997 to 2004 before stabilising; while rates due to hanging increased by 3.0% per year. The average annual YPLL due to suicide was 9559 in men and 2612 in women. The results show that suicide contributes substantially to premature death and demonstrates the need for targeted interventions, especially among young men in South Africa.

Addressing critical knowledge and capacity gaps to sustain CRVS system development

BACKGROUND

Improving civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems requires strengthening the capacity of the CRVS workforce. The improvement of data collection and diagnostic practices must be accompanied by efforts to ensure that the workforce has the skills and knowledge to assess the quality of, and analyse, CRVS data using demographic and epidemiological techniques. While longer-term measures to improve data collection practices must continue to be implemented, it is important to build capacity in the cautious use of imperfect data. However, a lack of training programmes, guidelines and tools make capacity shortages a common issue in CRVS systems. As such, any strategy to build capacity should be underpinned by (1) a repository of knowledge and body of evidence on CRVS, and (2) targeted strategies to train the CRVS workforce.

MAIN TEXT

During the 4 years of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne, an extensive repository of knowledge and practical tools to support CRVS system improvements was developed for use by various audiences and stakeholders (the 'CRVS Knowledge Gateway'). Complementing this has been a targeted strategy to build CRVS capacity in countries that comprised two approaches - in-country or regional training and a visiting Fellowship Program. These approaches address the need to build competence in countries to collect, analyse and effectively use good quality birth and death data, and a longer-term need to ensure that local staff in countries possess the comprehensive knowledge of CRVS strategies and practices necessary to ensure sustainable CRVS development.

CONCLUSION

The Knowledge Gateway is a dynamic, useful and long-lasting repository of CRVS knowledge for countries and development partners to use to formulate and evaluate CRVS development strategies. Capacity-building through in-country or regional training and the University of Melbourne D4H Fellowship Program will ensure that CRVS capacity and knowledge is developed and maintained, facilitating improvements in CRVS data systems that can be used by policymakers to support better decision-making in health.

Elements of a strategic approach for strengthening national mortality statistics programmes

Information on cause-specific mortality from civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems is essential for health policy and epidemiological research. Currently, there are critical gaps in the international availability of timely and reliable mortality data, which limits planned progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This article describes an evidence-based strategic approach for strengthening mortality data from CRVS systems. National mortality data availability scores from the Global Burden of Disease study were used to group countries into those with adequate, partial or negligible mortality data. These were further categorised by geographical region and population size, which showed that there were shortcomings in availability of mortality data in approximately two-thirds of all countries. Existing frameworks for evaluating design and functional status of mortality components of CRVS systems were reviewed to identify themes and topics for assessment. Detailed national programme assessments can be used to investigate systemic issues that are likely to affect death reporting, cause of death ascertainment and data management. Assessment findings can guide interventions to strengthen system performance. The strategic national approach should be customised according to data availability and population size and supported by human and institutional capacity building. Countries with larger populations should use an incremental sampling approach to strengthen CRVS systems and use interim data for mortality estimation. Periodic data quality evaluation is required to monitor system performance and scale up interventions. A comprehensive implementation and operations research programme should be concurrently launched to evaluate the feasibility, success and sustainability of system strengthening activities.

Evaluation of approaches to strengthen civil registration and vital statistics systems: A systematic review and synthesis of policies in 25 countries

BACKGROUND

Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most low- and middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although 25 countries representing all global regions (Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean) were reflected, there were limited countries from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Twenty-four articles reported policy effects on birth and/or death registration. Twenty-one of the 24 articles found that the change in registration rate after the policy was positive, with two supply and one penalty articles being the exceptions. The qualitative syntheses identified 15 operational considerations across all policy categories. Human and financial resource requirements were not quantified. The primary limitation of this systematic review was the threat of publication bias wherein many countries may not have documented their experience; this threat is most concerning for policies that had neutral or negative effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review suggests that combination policy approaches, consisting of at least a supply and demand component, were consistently associated with improved registration rates in different geographical contexts. Operational considerations should be interpreted based on health system, governance, and sociocultural context. More evaluations and research are needed from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Further research and evaluation are also needed to estimate the human and financial resource requirements required for different policies.

Usefulness of occupation and industry information in mortality data in South Africa from 2006 to 2015

BACKGROUND

There is no population based occupational health surveillance system in South Africa, thus mortality data may be a cost effective means of monitoring trends and possible associations with occupation. The aim of this study was to use deaths due to pneumoconiosis (a known occupational disease) to determine if the South African mortality data are a valid data source for occupational health surveillance in South Africa.

METHODS

Proportions of complete occupation and industry information for the years 2006-2015 were calculated for working age and retired adults. Deaths due to pneumoconiosis were identified in the data set and mortality odds ratios calculated for specific occupations and industry in reference to those who reported being unemployed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Only 16.1% of death notifications provided a usual occupation despite 43.1% of the population being employed in the year. The MORs for occupation provided significant increased odds of pneumoconiosis for miners (9.04), those involved in manufacturing (4.77), engineers and machinery mechanics (6.85). Along with these jobs the Mining (9.8), Manufacture (2.2) and Maintenance and repair industries (6.0) have significantly increased odds of pneumoconiosis deaths. The data can be said to provide a useful source of occupational disease information for surveillance where active surveillance systems do not exist.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate valid associations were found between occupational disease and expected jobs and industry. The most useful data are from 2013 onwards due to more detailed coding of occupation and industry.

Reliable mortality statistics in Myanmar: a qualitative assessment of challenges in two townships

Background

The vital registration system is universally recognized as the main source of mortality data which is essential for policy formulation, proper interventions and resource allocation to address priority health challenges. To improve availability and quality of mortality statistics by strengthening the vital registration system, understanding the current vital registration system is essential. This study identified challenges in generating reliable mortality statistics in the vital registration system of Myanmar.

Methods

Qualitative methods were used to collect data in two selected townships of Mandalay Region. Grey literature related to the management of mortality registration was reviewed; in-depth interviews of sixteen key informants and fourteen focus group discussions were conducted with those involved in death registration at the local level, such as healthcare providers, local administrators and knowledgeable adults in households where deaths occurred during the past three years. Thematic analysis was performed to identify system barriers in the death registration process.

Results

Weaknesses in the death registration system are classified in three areas: a) administrative which includes the lack of enforcement of mandatory death registration, limited issuance of death certificates and no formal mandatory notification of death events by households and; b) technical which includes absence of proper and regular on-the-job trainings, ineffective cause-of-death certification practice for deaths in the communities and the absence of routine data plausibility checks at the local level; and c) societal which includes poor community awareness and inadequate participation in death registration.

Conclusion

The study highlighted challenges in the death registration system at the operational level, which undermines the achievement of a satisfactory level of completeness and accuracy of mortality data. We recommend establishing a strong legal framework, improving technical capacities and raising public awareness and cooperation to strengthen the system that can generate reliable mortality statistics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6671-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Hospital mortality statistics in Tanzania: availability, accessibility, and quality 2006-2015

Background

Accurate and reliable hospital information on the pattern and causes of death is important to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of health policies and programs. The objective of this study was to assess the availability, accessibility, and quality of hospital mortality data in Tanzania.

Methods

This cross-sectional study involved selected hospitals of Tanzania and was carried out from July to October 2016. Review of hospital death registers and forms was carried out to cover a period of 10 years (2006–2015). Interviews with hospital staff were conducted to seek information as regards to tools used to record mortality data, staff involved in recording and availability of data storage and archiving facilities.

Results

A total of 247,976 death records were reviewed. The death register was the most (92.3%) common source of mortality data. Other sources included the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) report forms, Inpatient registers, and hospital administrative reports. Death registers were available throughout the 10-year period while ICD-10 forms were available for the period of 2013–2015. In the years between 2006 and 2010 and 2011–2015, the use of death register increased from 82 to 94.9%. Three years after the introduction of ICD-10 procedure, the forms were available and used in 28% (11/39) hospitals. The level of acceptable data increased from 69% in 2006 to 97% in 2015. Inconsistency in the language used, use of non-standard nomenclature for causes of death, use of abbreviations, poorly and unreadable handwriting, and missing variables were common data quality challenges. About 6.3% (n = 15,719) of the records had no patient age, 3.5% (n = 8790) had no cause of death and ~ 1% had no sex indicated. The frequency of missing sex variable was most common among under-5 children. Data storage and archiving in most hospitals was generally poor. Registers and forms were stored in several different locations, making accessibility difficult.

Conclusion

Overall, this study demonstrates gaps in hospital mortality data availability, accessibility, and quality, and highlights the need for capacity strengthening in data management and periodic record reviews. Policy guidelines on the data management including archiving are necessary to improve data.

Temporal trends in the epidemiology of cervical cancer in South Africa (1994-2012)

Cervical cancer (CC) is the leading cause of cancer death among female South Africans (SA). Improved access to reproductive health services following multi-ethnic democracy in 1994, HIV epidemic, and the initiation of CC population-based screening in early 2000s have influenced the epidemiology of CC in SA. We therefore evaluated the trends in CC age-standardised incidence (ASIR) (1994-2009) and mortality rates (ASMR) (2004-2012) using data from the South African National Cancer Registry and the Statistics South Africa, respectively. Five-year relative survival rates and average per cent change (AAPC) stratified by ethnicity and age-groups was determined. The average annual CC cases and mortalities were 4,694 (75,099 cases/16 years) and 2,789 (25,101 deaths/9 years), respectively. The ASIR was 22.1/100,000 in 1994 and 23.3/100,000 in 2009, with an average annual decline in incidence of 0.9% per annum (AAPC = -0.9%, p-value < 0.001). The ASMR decreased slightly by 0.6% per annum from 13.9/100,000 in 2004 to 13.1/100,000 in 2012 (AAPC = -0.6%, p-value < 0.001). In 2012, ASMR was 5.8-fold higher in Blacks than in Whites. The 5-year survival rates were higher in Whites and Indians/Asians (60-80%) than in Blacks and Coloureds (40-50%). The incidence rate increased (AAPC range: 1.1-3.1%, p-value < 0.001) among young women (25-34 years) from 2000 to 2009. Despite interventions, there were minimal changes in overall epidemiology of CC in SA but there were increased CC rates among young women and ethnic disparities in CC burden. A review of the CC national policy and directed CC prevention and treatment are required to positively impact the burden of CC in SA.

iCoverT: A rich data source on the incidence of child maltreatment over time in England and Wales

Child maltreatment is a major public health problem, which is plagued with research challenges. Good epidemiological data can help to establish the nature and scope of past and present child maltreatment, and monitor its progress going forward. However, high quality data sources are currently lacking for England and Wales. We employed systematic methodology to harness pre-existing datasets (including non-digitalised datasets) and develop a rich data source on the incidence of Child maltreatment over Time (iCoverT) in England and Wales. The iCoverT consists of six databases and accompanying data documentation: Child Protection Statistics, Children In Care Statistics, Criminal Statistics, Homicide Index, Mortality Statistics and NSPCC Statistics. Each database is a unique indicator of child maltreatment incidence with 272 data variables in total. The databases span from 1858 to 2016 and therefore extends current data sources by over 80 years. We present a proof-of-principle analysis of a subset of the data to show how time series methods may be used to address key research challenges. This example demonstrates the utility of iCoverT and indicates that it will prove to be a valuable data source for researchers, clinicians and policy-makers concerned with child maltreatment. The iCoverT is freely available at the Open Science Framework (osf.io/cf7mv).

Liver cancer mortality trends in South Africa: 1999-2015

Background

In South Africa (SA), liver cancer (LC) is a public health problem and information is limited.

Methods

Joinpoint regression analysis was computed for the most recent LC mortality data from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), by age group, sex and population group. The mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were calculated as the age-adjusted mortality rate divided by the age-adjusted incidence rate.

Results

From 1999 to 2015, the overall LC mortality significantly decreased in men (− 4.9%) and women (− 2.7%). Overall a significant decrease was noted in black African men aged 20–29 and 40–49 years, and white women older than 60 years but mortality rates increased among 50–59 and 60–69 year old black African men (from 2010/2009–2015) and women (from 2004/2009–2015). The mortality rates increased with age, and were higher among blacks Africans compared to whites in all age groups - with a peak black African-to-white mortality rate ratio of six in men and three in women at ages 30–39 years. The average MIR for black African men and women was 4 and 3.3 respectively, and 2.2 and 1.8 in their white counterparts. Moreover, decreasing LC mortality rates among younger and the increase in rates in older black Africans suggest that the nadir of the disease may be near or may have passed.

Conclusions

Findings of population-age subgroup variations in LC mortality and the number of underdiagnosed cases can inform surveillance efforts, while more extensive investigations of the aetiological risk factors are needed. Impact: There was a large race, sex and age differences in trends of LC mortality in SA. These findings should inform more extensive evaluation of the aetiology and risk factors of LC in the country in order to guide control efforts.

Performance of verbal autopsy methods in estimating HIV-associated mortality among adults in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Verbal autopsy (VA) can be integrated into civil registration and vital statistics systems, but its accuracy in determining HIV-associated causes of death (CoD) is uncertain. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of VA questions in determining HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and compared HIV-associated mortality fractions assigned by different VA interpretation methods.

METHODS

Using the WHO 2012 instrument with added ART questions, VA was conducted for deaths among adults with known HIV status (356 HIV positive and 103 HIV negative) in South Africa. CoD were assigned using physician-certified VA (PCVA) and computer-coded VA (CCVA) methods and compared with documented HIV status.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of VA questions in detecting HIV status and ART initiation was 84.3% (95% CI 80 to 88) and 91.0% (95% CI 86 to 95); 283/356 (79.5%) HIV-positive individuals were assigned HIV-associated CoD by PCVA, 166 (46.6%) by InterVA-4.03, 201 (56.5%) by InterVA-5, and 80 (22.5%) and 289 (81.2%) by SmartVA-Analyze V.1.1.1 and V.1.2.1. Agreement between PCVA and older CCVA methods was poor (chance-corrected concordance [CCC] <0; cause-specific mortality fraction [CSMF] accuracy ≤56%) but better between PCVA and updated methods (CCC 0.21-0.75; CSMF accuracy 65%-98%). All methods were specific (specificity 87% to 96%) in assigning HIV-associated CoD.

CONCLUSION

All CCVA interpretation methods underestimated the HIV-associated mortality fraction compared with PCVA; InterVA-5 and SmartVA-Analyze V.1.2.1 performed better than earlier versions. Changes to VA methods and classification systems are needed to track progress towards targets for reducing HIV-associated mortality.

Design and methodology of a study on colorectal cancer in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background and Aim

Cancer is one of the foremost causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most diagnosed and fourth most important cause of cancer death. A total of 70% of all CRC‐related deaths occur in low‐ and middle‐income countries. In Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), estimating the burden of CRC is difficult. Only 27 of 43 SSA countries have formalized cancer registration systems; data quality is variable and national coverage rare.

Methods

This is a multidisciplinary, longitudinal cohort study started in January 2016. Patients >18 years with histologically confirmed primary adenocarcinoma of the colon and rectum, diagnosed within the previous 12 months, are eligible. Participants were assessed and were followed up for 3 years. Baseline information, including demographics, socioeconomic status, family history, medical and surgical non‐cancer‐related history, dietary history, colonoscopic findings, staging at presentation, treatment, and disease recurrence, is collected, as well as blood tests and histology results. Outcomes include disease recurrence (local and metastatic) and survival.

Results and Conclusion

This study aims to describe the clinical presentation, management, and outcomes of adults with CRC in a multiethnic, urban South African population. It will be the first prospective study to describe clinical presentation, demographics, risk factors, treatment, and outcomes according to population group, from both private and state health‐care facilities in Johannesburg, South Africa. The results of this study will be relevant not only to South Africa but also to other SSA countries undergoing similar rates of rapid urbanization and epidemiological transition.

This paper summarizes the design and methodology being used for a prospective cohort study of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Johannesburg, South Africa. It aims to describe the clinical presentation, management and outcomes of adults with CRC in a multi‐ethnic, urban South African population. It will be the first prospective study to describe clinical presentation, demographics, risk factors, treatment and outcomes according to population group, from both private and state healthcare facilities.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Black Diaspora

For over four decades the National Medical Association (NMA) and the Association of Black Cardiologists (ABC) have sought to bring to national attention the disparate burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among African Americans. However, systematic inquiry has been inadequate into the burden of CVD in the poor countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the African diaspora in the Americas outside the USA. However, recently, the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has offered new tools for such inquiry. Several initial efforts in that direction using 2010 data have been published. This article highlights some new findings for SSA for 2016. It also suggests that NMA and ABC further this effort by direct advocacy and collaboration with the GBD to make estimates of CVD burden in African Americans and South American Blacks explicitly available in future iterations.

Community perspectives on HIV, violence and health surveillance in rural South Africa: a participatory pilot study

BACKGROUND

South Africa faces a complex burden of disease consisting of infectious and non-communicable conditions, injury and interpersonal violence, and maternal and child mortality. Inequalities in income and opportunity push disease burdens towards vulnerable populations, a situation to which the health system struggles to respond. There is an urgent need for health planning to account for the needs of marginalized groups in this context. The study objectives were to develop a process to elicit the perspectives of local communities in the established Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural north-east South Africa on two leading causes of death: HIV/AIDS and violent assault, and on health surveillance as a means to generate information on health in the locality.

METHODS

Drawing on community-based participatory research (CBPR) methods, three village-based groups of eight participants were convened, with whom a series of discussions were held to identify and define the causes of, treatments for, and problems surrounding, deaths due to HIV/AIDS and violent assault. The surveillance system was also discussed and recommendations generated. The discussion narratives were the main data source, examined using framework analysis.

RESULTS

The groups identified a range of social and health systems issues including risky sexual health behaviors, entrenched traditional practices, alcohol and substance abuse, unstable relationships, and debt as causative. Participants also explained how compromised patient confidentiality in clinics, insensitive staff, and a biased judicial system were problematic for the treatment and reporting of both conditions. Views on health surveillance were positive. Recommendations to strengthen an already well-functioning system related to maintaining confidentiality and sensitivity, and extending ancillary care obligations.

CONCLUSION

The discussions provided information not available from other sources on the social and health systems processes through which access to good quality health care is constrained in this setting. On this basis, further CBPR in routine HDSS to extend partnerships between researchers, communities and health authorities to connect evidence with the means for action is underway.

Mortality trends and differentials in South Africa from 1997 to 2012: second National Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND

The poor health of South Africans is known to be associated with a quadruple disease burden. In the second National Burden of Disease (NBD) study, we aimed to analyse cause of death data for 1997-2012 and develop national, population group, and provincial estimates of the levels and causes of mortality.

METHOD

We used underlying cause of death data from death notifications for 1997-2012 obtained from Statistics South Africa. These data were adjusted for completeness using indirect demographic techniques for adults and comparison with survey and census estimates for child mortality. A regression approach was used to estimate misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths and so-called garbage codes were proportionally redistributed by age, sex, and population group population group (black African, Indian or Asian descent, white [European descent], and coloured [of mixed ancestry according to the preceding categories]). Injury deaths were estimated from additional data sources. Age-standardised death rates were calculated with mid-year population estimates and the WHO age standard. Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) estimates for South Africa were obtained from the IHME GHDx website for comparison.

FINDINGS

All-cause age-standardised death rates increased rapidly since 1997, peaked in 2006 and then declined, driven by changes in HIV/AIDS. Mortality from tuberculosis, non-communicable diseases, and injuries decreased slightly. In 2012, HIV/AIDS caused the most deaths (29·1%) followed by cerebrovascular disease (7·5%) and lower respiratory infections (4·9%). All-cause age-standardised death rates were 1·7 times higher in the province with the highest death rate compared to the province with the lowest death rate, 2·2 times higher in black Africans compared to whites, and 1·4 times higher in males compared with females. Comparison with the IHME GBD estimates for South Africa revealed substantial differences for estimated deaths from all causes, particularly HIV/AIDS and interpersonal violence.

INTERPRETATION

This study shows the reversal of HIV/AIDS, non-communicable disease, and injury mortality trends in South Africa during the study period. Mortality differentials show the importance of social determinants, raise concerns about the quality of health services, and provide relevant information to policy makers for addressing inequalities. Differences between GBD estimates for South Africa and this study emphasise the need for more careful calibration of global models with local data.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council's Flagships Awards Project.

Physicians' knowledge and practice on death certification in the North West Bank, Palestine: across sectional study

Background

Mortality data are essential for many aspects of everyday public health practices at both national and international levels. Despite the current developments in various aspects of the medical field, the apparent inability of physicians to complete death notification forms (DNF) accurately is still worldwide concern. The aim of this study is to assess the physicians’ knowledge and practice on completing the DNF.

Methods

A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to 200 physicians in governmental and non-governmental hospitals in the North West-Bank in Palestine. Furthermore, a case scenario was included in the questionnaire and physicians were asked to fill the cause of death section. The percentage of errors committed while completing the cause of death section were computed. A Chi square test was used to assess the association between physicians’ characteristics and their responses.

Results

Only 40.6% of the participants completed the cause of death section correctly. The immediate and underlying causes of death were correctly identified by 48.7% and 71.3% of physicians, respectively. Almost one-fifth (17.3%) of physicians wrote the mechanism of death without reporting the underlying cause of death and 14.7% of them reported the sequence of events leading to death incorrectly.

Conclusions

Physicians’ knowledge and practice on completing the DNF is poor and insufficient, which may seriously affect the accuracy of mortality data. Complicated cases, problems in the current design of the DNFs and lack of training were the most common factors contributing to inaccuracy in death certification. We recommend offering periodical training workshops on completing the DNF to all physicians, and developing a manual on completing the DNFs with clear instructions and guidelines.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2814-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Antiretroviral therapy and population mortality: Leveraging routine national data to advance policy

In a Perspective, Amitabh Suthar and Till Bärnighausen discuss progress made so far in reducing HIV-related mortality in South Africa and keys towards further population mortality reductions going forward.

Etiology and mode of presentation of chronic liver diseases in India: A multi centric study

There is a paucity of health policy relevant data for chronic liver disease from India, impeding formulation of an interventional strategy to address the issue. A prospective, multicentric study to delineate the etiology and clinical profile of chronic liver disease in India is reported here. A centrally coordinated and monitored web-based data repository was developed (Feb, 2010 to Jan, 2013) and analyzed. Eleven hospitals from different parts of India participated. Data were uploaded into a web based proforma and monitored by a single centre according to a standardized protocol. 1.28% (n = 266621) of all patients (n = 20701383) attending the eleven participating hospitals of India had liver disease. 65807 (24·68%) were diagnosed for the first time (new cases). Of these, 13014 (19·77%, median age 43 years, 73% males) cases of chronic liver disease were finally analyzed. 33.9% presented with decompensated cirrhosis. Alcoholism (34·3% of 4413) was the commonest cause of cirrhosis while Hepatitis B (33·3%) was predominant cause of chronic liver disease in general and non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease (40·8% out of 8163). There was significant interregional differences (hepatitis C in North, hepatitis B in East and South, alcohol in North-east, Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in West) in the predominant cause of chronic liver disease. Hepatitis B (46·8% of 438 cases) was the commonest cause of hepatocellular Cancer.11·7% had diabetes. Observations of our study will help guide a contextually relevant liver care policy for India and could serve as a framework for similar endeavor in other developing countries as well.

Comparing laboratory surveillance with the notifiable diseases surveillance system in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare laboratory surveillance with the notifiable diseases surveillance system (NDSS) in South Africa.

METHODS

Data on three tracer notifiable diseases - measles, meningococcal meningitis, and typhoid - were compared to assess data quality, stability, representativeness, sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV), using the Wilcoxon and Chi-square tests, at the 5% significance level.

RESULTS

For all three diseases, fewer cases were notified than confirmed in the laboratory. Completeness for the laboratory system was higher for measles (63% vs. 47%, p<0.001) and meningococcal meningitis (63% vs. 57%, p<0.001), but not for typhoid (60% vs. 63%, p=0.082). Stability was higher for the laboratory (all 100%) compared to notified measles (24%, p<0.001), meningococcal meningitis (74%, p<0.001), and typhoid (36%, p<0.001). Representativeness was also higher for the laboratory (all 100%) than for notified measles (67%, p=0.058), meningococcal meningitis (56%, p=0.023), and typhoid (44%, p=0.009). The sensitivity of the NDSS was 50%, 98%, and 93%, and the PPV was 20%, 57%, and 81% for measles, meningococcal meningitis, and typhoid, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to laboratory surveillance, the NDSS performed poorly on most system attributes. Revitalization of the NDSS in South Africa is recommended to address the completeness, stability, and representativeness of the system.

Trends in mortality from ill-defined causes among the elderly in Brazil, 1979-2013: ecological study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:

Mortality measurements are traditionally used as health indicators and are useful in describing a population's health situation through reporting injuries that lead to death. The aim here was to analyze the temporal trend of proportional mortality from ill-defined causes (IDCs) among the elderly in Brazil from 1979 to 2013.

DESIGN AND SETTING:

Ecological study using data from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health.

METHODS:

The proportional mortality from IDCs among the elderly was calculated for each year of the study series (1979 to 2013) in Brazil, and the data were disaggregated according to sex and to the five geographical regions and states. To analyze time trends, simple linear regression coefficients were calculated.

RESULTS:

During the study period, there were 2,646,194 deaths from IDCs among the elderly, with a decreasing trend (ß -0.545; confidence interval, CI: -0.616 to -0.475; P < 0.000) for both males and females. This reduction was also observed in the macroregions and states, except for Amapá. The states in the northeastern region reported an average reduction of 80%.

CONCLUSIONS:

Mortality from IDCs among the elderly has decreased continuously since 1985, but at different rates among the different regions and states. Actions aimed at improving data records on death certificates need to be strengthened in order to continue the trend observed.

Mortality from Unspecified Unintentional Injury among Individuals Aged 65 Years and Older by U.S. State, 1999-2013

Introduction: Recent changes in unspecified unintentional injury mortality for the elderly by U.S. state remain unreported. This study aims to examine U.S. state variations in mortality from unspecified unintentional injury among Americans aged 65+, 1999–2013; Methods: Using mortality rates from the U.S. CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS™), we examined unspecified unintentional injury mortality for older adults aged 65+ from 1999 to 2013 by state. Specifically, the proportion of unintentional injury deaths with unspecified external cause in the data was considered. Linear regression examined the statistical significance of changes in proportion of unspecified unintentional injury from 1999 to 2013; Results: Of the 36 U.S. states with stable mortality rates, over 8-fold differences were observed for both the mortality rates and the proportions of unspecified unintentional injury for Americans aged 65+ during 1999–2013. Twenty-nine of the 36 states showed reductions in the proportion of unspecified unintentional injury cause, with Oklahoma (−89%), Massachusetts (−86%) and Oregon (−81%) displaying the largest changes. As unspecified unintentional injury mortality decreased, mortality from falls in 28 states and poisoning in 3 states increased significantly. Mortality from suffocation in 15 states, motor vehicle traffic crashes in 12 states, and fire/burn in 8 states also decreased; Conclusions: The proportion of unintentional injuries among older adults with unspecified cause decreased significantly for many states in the United States from 1999 to 2013. The reduced proportion of unspecified injury has implications for research and practice. It should be considered in state-level trend analysis during 1999–2013. It also suggests comparisons between states for specific injury mortality should be conducted with caution, as large differences in unspecified injury mortality across states and over time could create bias for specified injury mortality comparisons.

Establishment of a cancer surveillance programme: the South African experience

Cancer is projected to become a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries in the future. However, cancer incidence in South Africa is largely under-reported because of a lack of nationwide cancer surveillance networks. We describe present cancer surveillance activities in South Africa, and use the International Agency for Research on Cancer framework to propose the development of four population-based cancer registries in South Africa. These registries will represent the ethnic and geographical diversity of the country. We also provide an update on a cancer surveillance pilot programme in the Ekurhuleni Metropolitan District, and the successes and challenges in the implementation of the IARC framework in a local context. We examine the development of a comprehensive cancer surveillance system in a middle-income country, which might serve to assist other countries in establishing population-based cancer registries in a resource-constrained environment.

High rates of homicide in a rural South African population (2000-2008): findings from a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

South Africa has continued to receive increasing attention due to unprecedented high levels of violence. Homicide-related violence accounts for a significant proportion of unnatural deaths and contributes significantly to loss of years of expected life. We investigated levels and factors associated with homicide-related deaths and identify communities with excessively high homicide risk in a typical rural South African population.

METHOD

Data drawn from verbal autopsies conducted on all deaths recorded during annual demographic and health surveillance in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa were used to derive the cumulative probability of death from homicide over a nine-year period (2000-2008). Weibull regression methods were used to investigate factors associated with homicide deaths. A Kulldorff spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters of homicide-related deaths.

RESULTS

With 536 homicide-related deaths, and a median seven years of follow-up, the study found an overall homicide incidence rate of 66 deaths per 100, 000 person-years of observation (PYOs) (95 % CI 60-72) for the period under study. Death related to the use of firearms was the leading reported method of homicide (65 %) and most deaths occurred over weekends (43 %). Homicides are the second-most common cause of death in men aged 25-34 after HIV-related deaths (including TB) in this community, at 210 deaths per 100,000 PYOs, and was highest among 55-64 year old women, at 78 deaths per 100,000 PYOs. Residency status, age, socioeconomic status, and highest education level attained independently predicted the risk of homicide death. The spatial distribution of homicide deaths was not homogenous and the study identified two clear geographical clusters with significantly elevated homicide risk.

CONCLUSION

The high rates of homicide observed in this typical rural South African population - particularly among men - underscore the need for urgent interventions to reduce this tragic and theoretically preventable loss of life in this population and similar South African settings.

The Quality and Completeness of 2008 Perinatal and Under-five Mortality Data from Vital Registration, Jamaica

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the completeness and timeliness of registration of stillbirths and under-five deaths and the validity of the certification and coding process.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Registered stillbirths and under-five deaths occurring in 2008 were compared to hospital, police, forensic pathologist and coroner's records. Missed cases and new information such as birthweight, gestation and date of birth were added to the database. A 10% random sample was evaluated to measure the quality of certification and coding.

RESULTS

Of 646 stillbirths [≥ 1000 g] and 933 under-five deaths, 69% and 79%, respectively were registered by December 31, 2009, for inclusion in the 2008 final demographic returns. Non-reporting of stillbirths was associated with infant gender, region and place of death (seven of 21 public hospitals accounted for 96% of unregistered stillbirths). Among under-five deaths, age at death, region, place and cause of death were important. Injury and community deaths increased with age. Registration delays including non-registration were associated with coroner's inquests. Most [80%] stillbirth certificates lacked usable cause of death data. Neonatal deaths due to prematurity and perinatal asphyxia were often misclassified by coders. The stillbirth [≥ 1000 g], infant and under-five mortality rates were 15, 20 and 22/1000 births/live births, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While registration of stillbirths and under-five deaths improved between 1998 and 2008, persistent under-reporting reduced official rates by 20-31%. A new perinatal death certificate documenting maternal and fetal causes of death and risk factors such as birthweight, gestation and age at death would improve stillbirth and neonatal death (0-28 days) data quality.

Neonatal cause-of-death estimates for the early and late neonatal periods for 194 countries: 2000-2013

Objective

To estimate cause-of-death distributions in the early (0–6 days of age) and late (7–27 days of age) neonatal periods, for 194 countries between 2000 and 2013.

Methods

For 65 countries with high-quality vital registration, we used each country’s observed early and late neonatal proportional cause distributions. For the remaining 129 countries, we used multinomial logistic models to estimate these distributions. For countries with low child mortality we used vital registration data as inputs and for countries with high child mortality we used neonatal cause-of-death distribution data from studies in similar settings. We applied cause-specific proportions to neonatal death estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, by country and year, to estimate cause-specific risks and numbers of deaths.

Findings

Over time, neonatal deaths decreased for most causes. Of the 2.8 million neonatal deaths in 2013, 0.99 million deaths (uncertainty range: 0.70–1.31) were estimated to be caused by preterm birth complications, 0.64 million (uncertainty range: 0.46–0.84) by intrapartum complications and 0.43 million (uncertainty range: 0.22–0.66) by sepsis and other severe infections. Preterm birth (40.8%) and intrapartum complications (27.0%) accounted for most early neonatal deaths while infections caused nearly half of late neonatal deaths. Preterm birth complications were the leading cause of death in all regions of the world.

Conclusion

The neonatal cause-of-death distribution differs between the early and late periods and varies with neonatal mortality rate level. To reduce neonatal deaths, effective interventions to address these causes must be incorporated into policy decisions.

Avaliação dos sistemas de informações sobre nascidos vivos e óbitos no Brasil na década de 2000

Resumo No Nordeste brasileiro, a morte por fogo é uma ameaça onipresente e banalizada entre mulheres empobrecidas. Este estudo antropológico descreve a experiência do sofrimento de ser queimada. Em 2009, foram investigados seis casos “ricos em informação” no Centro de Queimados, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil. Entrevistas etnográficas abertas com informantes-chave, narrativas de experiências vividas e observação participante na clínica e no domicílio foram realizadas. Utilizamos os métodos Análise de Conteúdo, Sistemas de Signos, Significados e Ações e Interpretação Semântica Contextualizada. Revelou-se que as metáforas emergentes são carregadas de significância cultural da “monstruosidade” e da violência de gênero pelo fogo – inscrita impiedosamente no corpo feminino. O “acidente por combustível” (álcool) esconde a cruel realidade de “carne crua e torrada”. A cicatriz é capaz de desfigurá-las em “não-pessoas”, maculando sua reputação moral e gerando a rejeição social. No Nordeste brasileiro, a vulnerabilidade social provocada pela sequela da queimadura exige uma política de humanização do cuidado.

Record-linkage comparison of verbal autopsy and routine civil registration death certification in rural north-east South Africa: 2006-09

Background: South African civil registration (CR) provides a key data source for local health decision making, and informs the levels and causes of mortality in data-lacking sub-Saharan African countries. We linked mortality data from CR and the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS) to examine the quality of rural CR data.

Methods: Deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to link death data from 2006 to 2009. Causes of death were aggregated into the WHO Mortality Tabulation List 1 and a locally relevant short list of 15 causes. The matching rate was compared with informant-reported death registration. Using the VA diagnoses as reference, misclassification patterns, sensitivity, positive predictive values and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated for the short list.

Results: A matching rate of 61% [95% confidence interval (CI): 59.2 to 62.3] was attained, lower than the informant-reported registration rate of 85% (CI: 83.4 to 85.8). For the 2264 matched cases, cause agreement was 15% (kappa 0.1083, CI: 0.0995 to 0.1171) for the WHO list, and 23% (kappa 0.1631, CI: 0.1511 to 0.1751) for the short list. CSMFs were significantly different for all but four (tuberculosis, cerebrovascular disease, other heart disease, and ill-defined natural) of the 15 causes evaluated.

Conclusion: Despite data limitations, it is feasible to link official CR and HDSS verbal autopsy data. Data linkage proved a promising method to provide empirical evidence about the quality and utility of rural CR mortality data. Agreement of individual causes of death was low but, at the population level, careful interpretation of the CR data can assist health prioritization and planning.

Using health surveillance systems data to assess the impact of AIDS and antiretroviral treatment on adult morbidity and mortality in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana's AIDS response included free antiretroviral treatment (ART) since 2002, achieving 80% coverage of persons with CD4<350 cells/µl by 2009–10. We explored impact on mortality and HIV prevalence, analyzing surveillance and civil registration data.

Methods

Hospital natural cause admissions and deaths from the Health Statistics Unit (HSU) over 1990–2009, all-cause deaths from Midnight Bed Census (MNC) over 1990–2011, institutional and non-institutional deaths recorded in the Registry of Birth and Deaths (RBD) over 2003–2010, and antenatal sentinel surveillance (ANC) over 1992–2011 were compared to numbers of persons receiving ART. Mortality was adjusted for differential coverage and completeness of institutional and non-institutional deaths, and compared to WHO and UNAIDS Spectrum projections.

Results

HSU deaths per 1000 admissions declined 49% in adults 15–64 years over 2003–2009. RBD mortality declined 44% (807 to 452/100,000 population in adults 15–64 years) over 2003–2010, similarly in males and females. Generally, death rates were higher in males; declines were greater and earlier in younger adults, and in females. In contrast, death rates in adults 65+, particularly females increased over 2003–2006. MNC all-age post-neonatal mortality declined 46% and 63% in primary and secondary level hospitals, over 2003–2011. We estimated RBD captured 80% of adult deaths over 2006–2011. Comparing empirical, completeness-adjusted deaths to Spectrum estimates, declines over 2003–2009 were similar overall (47% vs. 54%); however, Spectrum projected larger and earlier declines particularly in women. Following stabilization and modest decreases over 1998–2002, HIV prevalence in pregnant women 15–24 and 25–29-years declined by >50% and >30% through 2011, while continuing to increase in older women.

Conclusions

Adult mortality in Botswana fell markedly as ART coverage increased. HIV prevalence declines may reflect ART-associated reductions in sexual transmission. Triangulation of surveillance system data offers a reasonable approach to evaluate impact of HIV/AIDS interventions, complementing cohort approaches that monitor individual-level health outcomes.

Wake-Up. A Health Promotion Project for Sub-Saharan University Students: Results of Focus Group Sessions

HIV/AIDS is seen as the major killer in developing countries however, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), also referred to as chronic diseases, are the leading causes of death worldwide. University students are an important target for health promotion programmes because they are exposed to a new lifestyle where they have to determine on their own which diet to follow, whether or not to exercise, how much they drink alcohol or smoke, whether to have sex or abstain, as well as whether to practice safe sex or not Focus group sessions were held at a rural Sub-Saharan African University to assess students' knowledge on how to lead a healthy lifestyle. The results suggest a need for a health promotion intervention programme which should be culture-sensitive and considerate of the needs of university students.