Large variations in risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in treatment naïve hepatitis B patients: systematic review with meta-analyses

Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model

OBJECTIVES

Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >106 copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC).

RESULTS

Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management.

Risk factors for HCC in contemporary cohorts of patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Etiological risk factors for cirrhosis have changed in the last decade. It remains unclear to what extent these trends in cirrhosis risk factors have changed HCC risk.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We used data from two contemporary, prospective multiethnic cohorts of patients with cirrhosis: the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium Cohort and the Houston Veterans Administration Cirrhosis Surveillance Cohort. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from seven US centers and followed until HCC diagnosis, transplant, death, or June 30, 2021. We calculated the annual incidence rates for HCC and examined the effects of etiology, demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors on the risk of HCC. We included 2733 patients with cirrhosis (mean age 60.1 years, 31.3% women). At enrollment, 19.0% had active HCV, 23.3% had cured HCV, 16.1% had alcoholic liver disease, and 30.1% had NAFLD. During 7406 person-years of follow-up, 135 patients developed HCC at an annual incidence rate of 1.82% (95% CI, 1.51-2.13). The annual HCC incidence rate was 1.71% in patients with cured HCV, 1.32% in patients with alcoholic liver disease, and 1.24% in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis. Compared to patients with NAFLD, the risk of progression to HCC was 2-fold higher in patients with cured HCV (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.24-3.35). Current smoking (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.63) and overweight/obesity (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.08-2.95) were also associated with HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC incidence among patients with cirrhosis was lower than previously reported. HCC risk was variable across etiologies, with higher risk in patients with HCV cirrhosis and lower risk in those with NAFLD cirrhosis. Current smoking and overweight/obesity increased HCC risk across etiologies.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis and Prognostic Accuracy of the PAGE-B HCC Risk Score in a Low Endemic Hepatitis B Virus Infected Population

Purpose

We aimed to determine incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and decompensated liver cirrhosis in persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Denmark stratified by disease phase, liver cirrhosis, and treatment status at baseline. Additionally, we aimed to assess the prognostic value of the PAGE-B HCC risk score in a mainly non-cirrhotic population.

Patients and Methods

In this register-based cohort study, we included all individuals over the age of 18, with chronic HBV infection first registered between 2002 and 2016 in at least one of three nationwide registers. The study population was followed until HCC, decompensated liver cirrhosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2017, which ever came first.

Results

Among 6016 individuals included in the study, 10 individuals with and 23 without baseline liver cirrhosis developed HCC during a median follow up of 7.3 years (range 0.0-15.5). This corresponded to five-year cumulative incidences of 7.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-12.3) and 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.4) in persons with and without baseline liver cirrhosis. The five-year cumulative incidence of decompensated liver cirrhosis was 0.7% (95% CI 0.5-1.0). Among 2038 evaluated for liver events stratified by disease phase, incidence of HCC was low in all who were non-cirrhotic and untreated for HBV at baseline. PAGE-B score was evaluated in 1529 persons. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0, 0.8 (95% CI 0.5-1.8), and 8.7 (95% CI 1.0-16.4) in persons scoring <10, 10-17 and >17, respectively (c-statistic 0.91 (95% CI 0.84-0.98)).

Conclusion

We found low incidence of HCC and decompensated liver cirrhosis in persons with chronic HBV infection in Denmark. Moreover, the PAGE-B score showed good accuracy for five-year risk of developing HCC in the population with chronic HBV infection in Denmark.

Mortality and cause of death in persons with chronic hepatitis B virus infection versus healthy persons from the general population in Denmark

The study aimed to determine adjusted all-cause mortality and cause of death in persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection compared with age- and sex-matched persons from the general population. We used nationwide registers to identify persons aged ≥18 years with chronic HBV infection in 2002-2017 in Denmark and included 10 age- and sex-matched controls for each. Follow-up was from 6 months after diagnosis until death, emigration, or 31 December 2017. Mortality rate ratios (MRRs) adjusted for age, sex, employment, origin and comorbidity were calculated using Poisson regression. Unadjusted cause-specific mortality rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. A total of 6988 persons with chronic HBV infection and 69,847 controls were included. During a median follow-up of 7.7 years (range 0.0-15.5), 315 (5%) persons with-and 1525 (2%) without-chronic HBV infection died. The adjusted all-cause MRR was 1.5 (95% CI 1.2-2.0). Persons with chronic HBV infection had increased mortality due to liver disease including hepatocellular carcinoma (MRR 12.3 [8.6-17.7]), external causes (MRR 3.3 [2.5-4.7]), endocrine disease (MRR 3.2 [1.8-5.4]), genitourinary disease (MRR 3.2 [1.2-7.6]) and neoplasms (except hepatocellular carcinoma; MRR 1.6 [1.2-2.0]). In conclusion, this study showed an increased all-cause mortality in persons with chronic HBV infection in comparison with age- and sex-matched persons without chronic HBV infection which remained after adjustment for several confounding factors. Excess mortality was mainly associated with liver disease, but also external factors, endocrine disease, genitourinary disease and neoplasms (excluding hepatocellular carcinoma).

Costs and health impact of delayed implementation of a national hepatitis B treatment program in China

Background

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading public health problem in China. COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the delivery of health care interventions worldwide, including HBV infection control.

Methods

In this study, we used a Markov model to quantify the costs and population health impact of HBV treatment in China for the following scenarios: 1) current practice with only 17% of treatment eligible HBV infected adults receiving antiviral treatment; 2) reaching the World Health Organization (WHO) treatment target of 80% by 2030 with a steady increase in treatment rate beginning in 2022; and 3) the effect of a 1-5-year delay in meeting the 2030 WHO treatment target. A one-way as well as a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted.

Results

Without increasing antiviral treatment for treatment eligible HBV infected adults, the life-time health care costs for the estimated 89.2 million adults living with HBV in China is US$1305 billion and 10.8 million (12%) will die from HBV-related liver disease. Increasing treatment to achieve the WHO 80% target by 2030 would save US$472 billion and prevent 3.3 million HBV-related deaths. We estimated that a 1-year delay beyond 2030 in reaching the WHO 80% treatment target would likely lead to US$55 billion increase in future health care costs, and an additional 334 000 future deaths from HBV-related liver disease or cancer.

Conclusions

Reaching the WHO 2030 with minimal delays would have an immense health and economic benefit. Implementing a national treatment program for HBV in China should be a key priority for policymakers.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis B Testing and Vaccination of Adults Seeking Care for Sexually Transmitted Infections

BACKGROUND

The estimated number of people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection acquired through sexual transmission was 103,000 in 2018, with an estimated incidence of 8300 new cases per year. Although hepatitis B (HepB) vaccination is recommended by the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices for persons seeking evaluation and treatment for sexually transmitted infections (STIs), prevaccination testing is not yet recommended. Screening may link persons with chronic hepatitis B to care and reduce unnecessary vaccination.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to calculate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of 1-time HBV testing combined with the first dose of the HepB vaccine for adults seeking care for STI. We ran a lifetime, societal perspective analysis for a hypothetical population of 100,000 aged 18 to 69 years. The disease progression estimates were taken from recent cohort studies and meta-analyses. In the United States, an intervention that costs less than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is generally considered cost-effective. The strategies that were compared were as follows: (1) vaccination without HBV screening, (2) vaccination and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening, (3) vaccination and screening with HBsAg and anti-HBs, and (4) vaccination and screening with HBsAg, anti-HBs, and anti-HBc. Data were obtained from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid services reimbursement, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine price list, and additional cost-effectiveness literature.

RESULTS

Compared with current recommendations, the addition of 1-time HBV testing is cost-saving and would prevent an additional 138 cases of cirrhosis, 47 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 90 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 33 liver transplants, and 163 HBV-related deaths, and gain 2185 QALYs, per 100,000 adults screened. Screening with the 3-test panel would save $41.6 to $42.7 million per 100,000 adults tested compared with $41.5 to $42.5 million for the 2-test panel and $40.2 to $40.3 million for HBsAg alone.

CONCLUSIONS

One-time HBV prevaccination testing in addition to HepB vaccination for unvaccinated adults seeking care for STI would save lives and prevent new infections and unnecessary vaccination, and is cost-saving.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC.

METHODS

The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67).

CONCLUSIONS

This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Germline Cancer Susceptibility Gene Testing in Unselected Patients with Hepatobiliary Cancers: A Multi-Center Prospective Study

Data from germline testing in unselected patients with hepatobiliary cancers are limited. Identification of germline predisposition can have important implications on cancer treatment and family counseling. To determine prevalence of pathogenic germline variants (PGV) in patients with hepatobiliary cancer, we undertook a prospective multi-site study of germline sequencing using a >80-gene next-generation sequencing platform among patients with hepatobiliary cancers receiving care at Mayo Clinic Cancer Centers between April 1, 2018 and March 31, 2020. Patients were not selected on the basis of stage, family cancer history, ethnicity, or age. Family cascade testing was offered at no cost. Of 205 patients, the median age was 65 years, 58.5% were male, 81% were White, and 64.4% had cholangiocarcinoma, 21.5% hepatocellular carcinoma, 7.8% gallbladder cancer, and 4.3% carcinoma of ampulla of Vater. PGV were found in 15.6% (n = 32) of patients, including 23 (71%) in moderate and high penetrance cancer susceptibility genes. A total of 75% of patients with a positive result would not have been detected using guidelines for genetic evaluation. Prevalence of PGV was 15.7% in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 17% in extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 15.9% in hepatocellular cancer, and 33% in carcinoma of ampulla of Vater. On the basis of these genetic findings, 55% were potentially eligible for approved precision therapy and/or clinical treatment trials. Universal multi-gene panel testing in hepatobiliary cancers was associated with detection of heritable mutations in over 15% of patients most of whom would not have been tested using current guidelines. Germline testing should be considered in all patients with hepatobiliary cancers. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Universal multi-gene testing in hepatobiliary cancers was associated with heritable mutations in over 15% of patients, most of whom would not have been tested using current guidelines. 55% were potentially eligible for approved precision therapy and/or clinical treatment trials. Germline testing should be considered in all patients with hepatobiliary cancers.

Association Between Nonselective Beta-Blocker Use and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Without Cirrhosis and Decompensation

Background: Nonselective beta-blockers (NSBBs) can reduce the incidence or mortality of certain types of cancers, and NSBBs exert a protective effect on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. However, the potential preventive effect of NSBBs has not yet been investigated in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who have a high HCC risk regardless of the presence of underlying cirrhosis.

Aim: This study evaluated the association between NSBB use and HCC incidence in patients with CHB without cirrhosis and decompensation.

Methods: From the 2000 Longitudinal Generation Tracking Database, we enrolled patients who were newly diagnosed as having CHB from January 2001 to December 2011 and then followed them up for at least 5 years. To estimate the causal effect of NSBBs on the time-to-event outcomes of HCC, a marginal Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results: After adjustment, no significant benefit of HCC risk reduction was observed between the NSBB users and nonusers (adjusted HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.52–1.31). The cumulative defined daily dose (cDDD) analysis revealed no significant dose correlation among the three groups [adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.08, (0.56–2.05), 0.54 (0.17–1.77), and 0.76 (0.40–1.42) in the <90 cDDD, 90 to <180 cDDD, and ≥180 cDDD groups, respectively]. Duration-dependent associations were not observed. Multivariable stratified analysis results demonstrated that HCC risk markedly decreased in the patients aged >55 years (adjusted HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.25–0.96; p = 0.04).

Conclusion: NSBB did not significantly prevent HCC in the patients with CHB infection without cirrhosis and decompensation. This study provided one of valuable results that it is not clinically required to use NSBBs as recommended chemoprevention for HCC in high-risk patients who have CHB.

Controversies in the Management of Hepatitis B: Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatitis B is the leading cause of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) worldwide. Untreated, annual HCC incidence rates in chronic hepatitis B subjects are 0.4% in noncirrhotics and 2% to 3% in cirrhotics. Surveillance with ultrasound with/without α-fetoprotein at 6-month intervals is recommended in at-risk persons including children. Antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B with entecavir or tenofovir significantly lowers the risk of HCC across all stages of liver disease, and lowers the risk of HCC recurrence following curative therapy. There are insufficient data to recommend use of tenofovir over entecavir in the prevention of de novo or recurrent HCC postcurative therapy.

Effect of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt on transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) usually occurs accompanied by portal hypertension. Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended as an effective treatment in HCC. Recent studies had conflicting results regarding the effectiveness and safety of TACE for HCC in patients with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the influence of TIPS on the effectiveness and safety of TACE for patients with HCC.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of studies among PubMed, Web of Science and Cochrane Library was conducted, from the earliest publishing date to January 27th, 2020. Statistical analyses were all performed using the Stata 13.0 software. I2 index statistic was used to assess heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Six studies with a total of 536 patients with HCC were included in the analysis. The pooled response rate was 51% (95% CI: 25% to 77%) with a significant heterogeneity (I2=93.3%, p < 0.001). The TACE + TIPS group had an inferior response rate than the non-TIPS group, but the difference had no statistical significance (p = 0.171) and heterogeneity was low (I2=0.00%, p = 0.490). Pooled hepatic failure rate was 8.8% (95% CI: 5.2% to 12.4%) with low heterogeneity (I2=0.0%, p = 0.747). But the pooled hepatic failure rate increased to 12.7% (95% CI: 5.7% to 19.7%) with low heterogeneity (I2=11.5%, p = 0.323) if the patients who received TIPS after TACE were excluded.

CONCLUSION

TIPS does not influence the effectiveness of TACE, but attention should be paid to the risk of hepatic failure.

Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Universal Screening for Chronic Hepatitis B Infection in Adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

An estimated 862,000 to 2.4 million people have chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB). Left undiagnosed and untreated CHB increases risk of death from liver cirrhosis or liver cancer. Hepatitis B screening is recommended for pregnant women and populations with increased CHB risk, but diagnosis rates remain low with only 33% of people with CHB aware of their infection.. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of universal adult screening for CHB.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to calculate the costs, population health impact and cost-effectiveness of one-time universal screening and CHB monitoring and treatment compared to current practice. Sensitivity analysis was performed on model parameters to identify thresholds for cost-savings or cost-effectiveness based on willinness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY . The analysis assumed testing would be performed during routine healthcare visits, and generic tenofovir or entecavir would be dispensed for treatment. Testing costs were based on Medicare reimbursement rates.

RESULTS

At an estimated 0.24% prevalence of undiagnosed CHB, universal HBsAg screening in adults 18-69 years old is cost-saving compared with current practice if antiviral treatment drug costs remain below $894 per year. Compared with current practice, universal screening would avert an additional 7.4 cases of compensated cirrhosis, 3.3 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 5.5 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 1.9 liver transplants, and 10.3 HBV related deaths at a savings of $263,000 per 100,000 adults screened.

CONCLUSION

Universal HBsAg screening of adults in the US general population for CHB is cost-effective and likely cost-saving compared to current CHB screening recommendations.

Inflammatory indexes in preoperative blood routine to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative hepatectomy

Background

The inflammation indexes in blood routine play an essential role in evaluating the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, but the effect on early recurrence has not been clarified. The study aimed to investigate the risk factors of early recurrence (within 2 years) and recurrence-free survival after curative hepatectomy and explore the role of inflammatory indexes in predicting early recurrence.

Methods

The baseline data of 161 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were analyzed retrospectively. The optimal cut-off value of the inflammatory index was determined according to the Youden index. Its predictive performance was compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors of early recurrence and recurrence-free survival.

Results

The area under the curve of monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR) for predicting early recurrence was 0.700, which was better than systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII). MLR, tumour size, tumour differentiation and BCLC stage are all risk factors for early recurrence and recurrence-free survival of HCC. Combining the above four risk factors to construct a joint index, the area under the curve for predicting early recurrence was 0.829, which was better than single MLR, tumour size, tumour differentiation and BCLC stage. Furthermore, with the increase of risk factors, the recurrence-free survival of patients is worse.

Conclusion

The combination of MLR and clinical risk factors is helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk patients with early recurrence and carry out active postoperative adjuvant therapy to improve the prognosis of patients.

Circulating biomarkers for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is estimated to be the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. HCC patients face a dismal prognosis because symptoms usually appear in an advanced stage of disease. The detection of early stage HCC allows for curative surgical treatment and therefore saves lives. Specific non-invasive or diagnostic markers for HCC may represent a valuable tool for detecting these tumors at an early stage. The clinically most established serological biomarker alpha-fetoprotein shows only limited diagnostic performance, however novel candidate biomarkers and biomarker panels for detecting HCC at early stages of development are being studied. In this review we will discuss the findings of these studies.

Cost-effectiveness of couple-based immunization strategy to prevent mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus in China: A decision-analytic Markov model

BACKGROUND

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is the major route of HBV transmission in many parts of the world. We designed couple-based immunization strategy and aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in China.

METHODS

We constructed a decision-analytic Markov model to compared current immunization strategy consisting of hepatitis B vaccination (HepB) for all infants and extra hepatitis B immunoglobulin for infants with HBsAg-positive mothers versus couple-based immunization strategy including additional HBV screening for pre-pregnant couples and HepB for high-risk wives. Costs were assessed from a healthcare system perspective. Number of infants with perinatal HBV infection, life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were used to access effects. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and performed sensitivity analysis.

FINDINGS

Based on the birth cohort of 17,578,815 livebirths in China in 2017, couple-based immunization strategy reduced perinatal HBV infection by 18% (9194/51,365) with cost increase of ¥ 41 million, saved 49,986 LYs (ICER: ¥819 per LY saved), gained 48,879 QALYs (ICER: ¥837 per QALY gained) and averted 63,362 DALYs (¥646 per DALY averted) compared with current immunization strategy. These ICERs were below willingness-to-pay levels of China's once GDP per capita (¥59,660), remaining robust in sensitivity analysis.

INTERPRETATION

Under the intermediate endemic of HBV infection in China, implementation of couple-based immunization strategy can improve the efficiency of preventing MTCT of HBV, and is highly cost-effective. This strategy can be a new immunization strategy choice to achieve the target of eliminating hepatitis B by 2030.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Cost-effectiveness of augmenting universal hepatitis B vaccination with immunoglobulin treatment: a case study in Zhejiang Province, East China

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the current strategy combining universal vaccination with hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) treatment for infants of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive mothers compared with universal vaccination with hepatitis B vaccine only.Methods: A decision tree model with a Markov process was constructed and used to simulate the lifetime of the birth cohort in Zhejiang Province during 2016. The current strategy was compared against universal vaccination with respect to costs and health effects. Costs were assessed from the health care system perspective. Health effects were measured by the number of hepatitis B virus (HBV) related diseases and deaths avoided and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The incremental cost‑effectiveness ratio (ICER) is calculated and compared to standard willingness-to-pay thresholds. A one-way sensitivity analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed to assess parameter uncertainties.Results: Over the cohort's lifetime, 182 acute symptomatic infections, 2215 chronic infections, 872 cases of cirrhosis, 595 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 1,350 HBV-related deaths among the cohort of 624,000 infants would be further avoided by the current strategy compared to universal vaccination. Universal vaccination was dominated by the current strategy that produced not only higher total QALYs, but also had lower costs. The results remained robust over a wide range of assumptions.Conclusions: The current strategy was cost saving compared to universal vaccination, and continuing the current strategy is recommended to further decrease the burden of hepatitis B.

Epidemiological and etiological variations in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most prevalent form of liver cancer and a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The major risk factors for HCC development are chronic liver disease and cirrhosis due to hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcoholic liver disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), steatohepatitis, intake of aflatoxin-contaminated food, diabetes, and obesity.

RESULTS

In Western countries, the number of NASH-related HCC cases is increasing, that of HBV- or HCV-related cases is declining due to the wide application of HBV universal vaccination and the introduction of effective therapies against HBV and HCV infections, and that of alcohol-related cases remaining substantially unchanged. Nevertheless, the burden of HCC is expected to increase worldwide in the next few decades, due to the population growth and aging expected in coming years. Overall, the abovementioned changes and future variations in lifestyle and in the impact of environmental factors in Western countries and a decreasing exposure to dietary aflatoxins and improved socio-economic conditions in developing countries will create new HCC epidemiology in the next few decades.

CONCLUSION

A substantial further reduction in cases of HCC requires a wider application of universal HBV vaccination and effective treatment of HBV- and HCV-related chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis, more effective campaigns to favor correct dietary habits and reduce alcohol consumption and the intensification of studies on HCC pathogenesis for future optimized prevention strategies.

Population Health And Economic Impacts Of Reaching Chronic Hepatitis B Diagnosis And Treatment Targets In The US

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine have concluded that eliminating the public health problem of chronic hepatitis B is feasible. We examined the economic and public health impact of reaching the World Health Organization targets of having 90 percent of chronic hepatitis B cases diagnosed and 80 percent being treated by 2030 in the United States with an annual incremental increase in screening and treatment rates. To reach the targets by 2030 would require screening approximately 14.5 million adults in at-risk populations to diagnose an estimated 870,000 undiagnosed cases and would result in substantial health gains: an increase of 16.5 million quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and reductions in liver-related deaths of 37 percent and in cases of compensated cirrhosis of 24 percent, decompensated liver cirrhosis of 51 percent, and liver cancer of 35 percent. Achieving the targets by 2030 would be highly cost-effective at $103 per QALY and would be cost-saving if the antiviral drug price were no more than $114 per month. Achieving them by 2025 would be cost-saving and would reduce liver-related deaths by 47 percent.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis B vaccine booster in children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China

OBJECTIVE

In rural areas of China with highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, protective efficacy was observed in adulthood when a one-dose HBV vaccine booster was administered to high-risk children born to mothers who were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an HBV vaccine booster in this specific group of children when given at 10 years of age.

METHODS

Two potential strategies were considered: strategy 1 was a one-dose booster given if the child was negative on HBsAg screening; strategy 2 was a one-dose booster given if the child was negative on both HBsAg plus anti-HBs screening. A decision tree combined with a Markov model was developed to simulate the booster intervention process and to simulate the natural history of HBV infection in a cohort of 10-year-old children who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers. The model was calibrated based on multiple selected outcomes. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were measured from a societal perspective. Cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) of the different strategies were compared in both base-case and one-way sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Compared to the current practice of 'no screening and no booster', both strategy 1 and strategy 2 were cost-saving, with CERs estimated at US$ -6961 and US$ -6872 per QALY gained, respectively. In the one-way sensitivity analysis for strategy 1, all the CERs were found to be less than US$ -5000 per QALY gained after considering the uncertainty of all the variables, including vaccination protective efficacy, natural history, behavior, and various costs and utility weights. In a 'worst case' scenario (all parameter values simultaneously being at the worst), the CER of strategy 1 increased to US$ 3263 per QALY gained, which was still less than the GDP per capita of China in 2016 (US$ 8126).

CONCLUSIONS

A hepatitis B vaccine booster given to children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China would be cost-effective and could be considered in HBV endemic areas.

Viral Biomarkers in Chronic HBeAg Negative HBV Infection

Viral biomarkers are important tools for monitoring chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) hepatitis B early antigen (HBeAg) negative infection, both in its natural course as well as during and after treatment. The biomarkers consist of antibodies against viral epitopes, viral proteins, and molecular surrogate markers of the quantity and transcriptional activity of the stable episomal HBV covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) which is located in the nuclei of the infected hepatocytes. HBV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) or else viral load measurement in plasma or serum is a marker of HBV replication of major clinical importance. HBV DNA is used for staging and treatment monitoring as described in international scientific guidelines. Quantification of HBV antigens, mainly hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) as well as Hepatitis B core related antigen (HBcrAg), play an important yet secondary role, especially in cases of low or undetectable HBV DNA and has been evaluated for the classification of the inactive carrier state, as a predictor of subsequent HBsAg clearance, treatment outcome, and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The measurement of the replicative intermediate HBV RNA in serum is currently evaluated and may also prove to be a significant biomarker particularly in patients treated with nucleot(s)ide analogs. This review focuses on the viral biomarkers mentioned above and their role in HBV, HBeAg negative, infection.

Clinicopathologic characteristics andoutcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma associated with chronic hepatitis B versus hepatitis C infection

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a primary liver malignancy and one of the most common cancers worldwide. Few studies in Saudi Arabia have compared the clinicopathologic characteristics of HCC caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) versus hepatitis C virus (HCV) and their effect on patient survival and prognosis.

OBJECTIVES

Identify differences in clinicopathological characteristics and outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) caused by HBV versus HCV.

DESIGN

A retrospective medical records review.

SETTING

Tertiary medical center in Riyadh.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included all new cases of HCC with underlying HBV and HCV infection diagnosed between January 2013 and September 2017 that met inclusion criteria.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical, biochemical, pathological and radiological characteristics, and survival differences were compared between HCC that developed in HBV- and HCV-infected patients.

SAMPLE SIZE

Of 253 patients evaluated, 172 patients were included in the study.

RESULTS

Of the 172 patients, 110 (64%) had HCV-associated HCC and 62 (36%) had HBV-associated HCC. More patients with HBV infection were males (P=.003) and were younger (P=.015) than HCV patients. HCV-infected patients who developed HCC had more advanced cirrhosis (P=.048). The prevalence of comorbidities and pre-existing cir.rhosis was similar in both groups. Seven patients (6.8%) with underlying HCV developed HCC in the absence of cirrhosis. Patients with HBV-associated HCC were less likely to meet Milan criteria at initial diagnosis than those with HCV-associated HCC (33.9% vs. 52.7%, respectively, P=.017). HBV-associated HCC occurred at a more advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage. The overall median survival and treatment outcome for each modality was comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

HBV- and HCV-associated HCC have distinct clinical and pathological characteristics, necessitating different screening policies to optimize HCC surveillance and management. However, viral etiology did not affect the treatment outcome and long-term survival.

LIMITATIONS

Conducted in a single-center, retrospective and lacks information about the use of antiviral treatment.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

None.

Review article: hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg): an emerging marker for chronic hepatitis B virus infection

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) cannot be completely eradicated due to the presence of covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nuclei of infected hepatocytes. While quantification of intrahepatic cccDNA requires liver biopsies, serological markers can be non-invasive alternatives to reflect intrahepatic viral replicative activity. Recently, hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) has been advocated as a novel serum marker for disease monitoring and prognostication of CHB.

AIM

To examine the virological aspect and clinical application of HBcrAg with respect to the natural history and treatment of CHB.

METHODS

We reviewed all papers published in the PubMed journal list and abstracts from major international meetings that included the keyword "HBcrAg" or "hepatitis B core-related antigen" until March 2017. Selected studies were compared and summarised on the basis of existing theories, as well as the authors' experience.

RESULTS

HBcrAg exhibited good correlation with intrahepatic (ih) cccDNA, ih total hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, serum HBV DNA and to a lesser extent HBV surface antigen (HBsAg). In situations where serum HBV DNA levels become undetectable or HBsAg loss is achieved, HBcrAg can still be detectable. This marker is helpful in differentiation of HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis from HBeAg-negative chronic infection, predicting spontaneous or treatment-induced HBeAg seroconversion, sustained response to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA), risk of HBV reactivation in occult HBV infection under immunosuppressive therapies, and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development as well as post-operative HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

HBcrAg is a potential surrogate marker of cccDNA. It may soon become a useful marker for disease monitoring, predicting treatment response and disease outcome of chronic hepatitis B.

Epidemiology of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) are the most frequently occurring types of primary liver cancer and together are among the most common incident cancers worldwide. There are a number of modifiable and nonmodifiable HCC and ICC risk factors that have been reported. A review of the existing literature the epidemiology and risk factors for HCC and ICC was performed. There are a number of major infectious, lifestyle, metabolic, and heritable risk factors for both HCC and ICC. Some of these risk factors are either potentially preventable (eg, alcohol and tobacco use) or are currently treatable (eg hepatitis infection). In most cases, the molecular pathway or mechanism by which these etiologic factors cause primary liver cancer has not been well delineated. However, in nearly all cases, it is believed that a given risk factor causes liver injury and inflammation which results in chronic liver disease. Given the rising prevalence of several common HCC and ICC risk factors in the western world, the best opportunities for improving the care of these patients are either through the prevention of modifiable risk factors that are associated with the development of chronic liver disease or the identification of at risk patients, ensuring they are appropriately screened for the development of primary liver cancer, and initiating treatment early.

Pharmacological interventions for acute hepatitis B infection: an attempted network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) can be symptomatic or asymptomatic. Apart from chronic HBV infection, the complications related to acute HBV infection are severe acute viral hepatitis and fulminant hepatitis characterised by liver failure. The optimal pharmacological treatment of acute HBV infection remains controversial.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of pharmacological interventions in the treatment of acute HBV infection through a network meta-analysis and to generate rankings of the available treatments according to their safety and efficacy. As it was not possible to assess whether the potential effect modifiers were similar across different comparisons, we did not perform the network meta-analysis, and instead, assessed the benefits and harms of different interventions using standard Cochrane methodological procedures.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and randomised clinical trials (RCTs) registers to August 2016 to identify RCTs on pharmacological interventions for acute HBV infection.

SELECTION CRITERIA

RCTs, irrespective of language, blinding, or publication status in participants with acute HBV infection. We excluded trials if participants had previously undergone liver transplantation and had other coexisting viral diseases such as hepatitis C virus and HIV. We considered any of the various pharmacological interventions compared with each other or with placebo, or no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We calculated the odds ratio (OR) and rate ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using both fixed-effect and random-effects models based on available-participant analysis with Review Manager 5. We assessed risk of bias, controlled risk of random errors with Trial Sequential Analysis, and assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven trials (597 participants) met our review inclusion criteria. All trials provided information for one or more outcomes; however, five participants were excluded from analysis by study authors. All the trials were at high risk of bias. Overall, all the evidence was low or very low quality evidence because of risk of bias (downgraded one level for risk of bias), small sample size (downgraded one level for imprecision), and wide CIs (downgraded one more level for imprecision in some comparisons). Of the seven trials, six were two-armed trials, while one trial was a three-armed trial. The comparisons included hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) versus placebo (one trial; 55 participants); interferon versus placebo (two trials; 200 participants); lamivudine versus placebo or no intervention (four trials; 316 participants); lamivudine versus entecavir (one trial; 90 participants); and entecavir versus no intervention (one trial; 131 participants). One trial included only people with acute HBV with hepatic encephalopathy (i.e. people with fulminant liver failure); one trial included only people with severe acute HBV, but it did not state whether any of the people also had fulminant HBV infection; three trials excluded fulminant HBV infection; and two trials did not report the severity of acute HBV infection. The mean or median follow-up period in the trials ranged from three to 12 months in the trials that provided this information.There was no evidence of any differences in short-term mortality (less than one year) in any of the comparisons: HBIG versus placebo (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.36 to 3.54; participants = 55; 1 trial), lamivudine versus placebo or no intervention (OR 1.29, 95% CI 0.33 to 4.99; participants = 250; 2 trials); lamivudine versus entecavir (OR 1.23, 95% CI 0.13 to 11.65; participants = 90; 1 trial), or entecavir versus no intervention (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.12 to 9.47; participants = 131; 1 trial). The proportion of people who progressed to chronic HBV infection was higher in the lamivudine group than the placebo or no intervention group (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.05 to 3.77; participants = 285; 3 trials) and in the lamivudine group versus entecavir group (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.31 to 10.13; participants = 90; 1 trial). There was no evidence of a difference in the proportion of people who progressed to chronic HBV infection between the entecavir and the no intervention groups (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.49; participants = 131; 1 trial). None of the trials reported progression to fulminant HBV infection. Three trials with 371 participants reported serious adverse events. There were no serious adverse events in any of the groups (no intervention: 0/183 (0%), interferon: 0/67 (0%), lamivudine: 0/100 (0%), and entecavir: 0/21 (0%)). The proportion of people with adverse events was higher in the interferon group than the placebo group (OR 348.16, 95% CI 45.39 to 2670.26; participants = 200; 2 trials). There was no evidence of a difference in the proportion of people with adverse events between the lamivudine group and the placebo or no intervention group (OR 1.42, 95% CI 0.34 to 5.94; participants = 35; 1 trial) or number of adverse events between the lamivudine group and the placebo or no intervention group (rate ratio 1.72, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.91; participants = 35; 1 trial). One trial with 100 participants reported quality of life at one week. The scale used to report the health-related quality of life was not stated and lacked information on whether higher score meant better or worse, making it difficult to interpret the results. None of the trials reported quality of life beyond one week or other clinical outcomes such as mortality beyond one year, liver transplantation, cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, or hepatocellular carcinoma.Two trials received funding from pharmaceutical companies; three trials were funded by parties without any vested interest in the results or did not receive any special funding; the source of funding was not available in the remaining two trials.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Low or very low quality evidence suggests that progression to chronic HBV infection was higher in people receiving lamivudine compared with placebo, no intervention, or entecavir. Low quality evidence suggests that interferon may increase the adverse events after treatment for acute HBV infection. Based on a very low quality evidence, there is currently no evidence of benefit of any intervention in acute HBV infection. There is significant uncertainty in the results and further RCTs are required.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in untreated subjects with chronic hepatitis B: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In the natural history of hepatitis B virus (HBV) chronic infection, the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk is unclear. We assessed incidence and predictors of HCC by a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

We included longitudinal studies and randomized controlled trials assessing HCC incidence in untreated patients with HBV chronic infection. Incidence rates and their 95% confidence intervals were extracted by each study and pooled together in random effects models.

RESULTS

Sixty-six studies were included with a total of 347 859 patients. According to liver disease status, the summary incidence rates were in Europe, North America and East Asia, respectively: (a) asymptomatic carriers: 0.07 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.09), 0.19 (0.07-0.31) and 0.42 (0.21-0.63) per 100 person-years, respectively; (b) inactive carriers: 0.03 (0.0-0.10), 0.17 (0.02-0.62) and 0.06 (0.02-0.10), respectively; (c) chronic hepatitis: 0.12 (0.0-0.27), 0.48 (0.22-0.91) and 0.49 (0.32-0.66), respectively; (d) compensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A): 2.03 (1.30-2.77), 2.89 (1.23-4.55) and 3.37 (2.48-4.26) respectively. Multivariate meta-regression showed a significant increase in incidence rates for age, and for status of a symptomatic carrier, chronic hepatitis and compensated cirrhosis compared to inactive carrier, but not for geographical area after adjusting for age. An increase in the incidence rates was also observed for alcohol intake ≥60 g/dl, HBV genotype C with respect to B and HBV-DNA serum levels >2000 IU/ml, in Asian studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in untreated subjects with HBV chronic infection is strongly related with age and liver disease status.

Liver resection for intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors in China. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system is regarded as the gold standard staging system for HCC, classifying HCC as early, intermediate, or advanced. For intermediate HCC, trans-catheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended as the optimal strategy by the BCLC guideline. This review investigates whether liver resection is better than TACE for intermediate HCC. Based on published studies, we compare the survival benefits and complications of liver resection and TACE for intermediate HCC. We also compare the survival benefits of liver resection in early and intermediate HCC. We find that liver resection can achieve better or at least comparable survival outcomes compared with TACE for intermediate HCC; however, we do not observe a significant difference between liver resection and TACE in terms of safety and morbidity. We conclude that liver resection may improve the short- and long-term survival of carefully selected intermediate HCC patients, and the procedure may be safely performed in the management of intermediate HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients on Third Generation Nucleos(t)ides Analogs: Risk Factors and Performance of a Risk Score

Objective

To investigate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence, risk factors and the performance of baseline REACH-B risk score in a Portuguese chronic hepatitis B (CHB) population on antiviral therapy.

Methods

Retrospective study of CHB patients who were treated with tenofovir or entecavir for at least 12 months. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify factors associated with HCC. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of HCC at 1, 3 and 5 years on therapy. The performance of the REACH-B score at baseline was assessed.

Results

One hundred and twenty patients initiated nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUC) therapy (age, 47 ± 14 years-old; 83 male; 11% had cirrhosis; 71% tenofovir; 73% HBeAg-negative; 61% treatment-naïve). After a median time under NUC of 39 months, 9 patients (7.5%) developed HCC. The calculated cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 1, 3 and 5 years on therapy were 5.1%, 7.3% and 8.8%, respectively. Independent predictors for HCC occurrence: age and cirrhosis at baseline. Diagnostic accuracy of baseline REACH-B score in predicting HCC development: AUC 0.738, 95%CI: 0.521–0.955. The cutoff value of 8 points had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 75%, 52%, 6% and 98%, respectively in predicting HCC occurrence during therapy.

Conclusions

Older age and cirrhosis at baseline were independent predictors for HCC development. Discriminatory performance of baseline REACH-B score was limited.