Independent Role of Underlying Kidney Disease on Renal Prognosis of Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease under Nephrology Care

Temporal validation of a Generalized Additive2 Model (GA2M) to assess the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the temporal validity of a model predicting the risk of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) using Generalized Additive2 Models (GA2M).

MATERIALS

We adopted the Italian Health Search Database (HSD) with which the original algorithm was developed and validated by comparing different machine learnings models.

METHODS

We selected all patients aged >=15 being active in HSD in 2019. They were followed up until December 2022 so being updated with three years of data collection. Those with prior diagnosis of CKD were excluded. A GA2M-based algorithm for CKD prediction was applied to this cohort in order to compare observed and predicted risk. Area Under Curve (AUC) and Average Precision (AP) were calculated.

RESULTS

We obtained an AUC and AP equal to 88% and 30%, respectively.

DISCUSSION

The prediction accuracy of the algorithm was largely consistent with that obtained in our prior work which was based on a different time-window for data collection. We therefore underlined and demonstrated the relevance of temporal validation for this prediction tool.

CONCLUSION

The GA2M confirmed its high accuracy in prediction of CKD. As such, the respective patient- and population-based informatic tools might be implemented in primary care.

Role of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Clinical Research: The Never-Ending Matter

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) burden is crucial both on a global scale and at individual patient level, affecting morbidity and mortality directly and through its effect on both cardiovascular damage and CKD progression to end-stage-kidney-disease (ESKD). Unfortunately, the awareness of CKD is poor, with few CKD patients conscious of the severity of their health status. The principal biomarker of kidney function is estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

Methods

We searched the literature and present a review article with the aim of summarizing the role of eGFR in clinical research. In particular, we report the eGFR role as a prognostic, enrichment and endpoint biomarker and its role in the early detection of CKD.

Results

eGFR has a major role as a biomarker in clinical research. As a prognostic marker, eGFR reduction is associated with cardiovascular events, ESKD and mortality. As an enrichment biomarker, eGFR values are pivotal for selecting patients to be included in randomized and observational studies; it helps to test a pre-defined drug in early CKD or in more advanced CKD allowing also to avoid screening failures and to shorten the duration of clinical trials. Moreover, eGFR decline (expressed as a percentage of reduction from baseline or continuous slope) can be considered a good endpoint in clinic trials overcoming delays whilst waiting for hard endpoints to develop.

Conclusions

eGFR is a strong clinical measure for both observational and intervention studies. It is also helpful in screening the general population for kidney disease and, in particular, to increase awareness of CKD.

To predict the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using Generalized Additive2 Models (GA2M)

OBJECTIVE

To train and test a model predicting chronic kidney disease (CKD) using the Generalized Additive2 Model (GA2M), and compare it with other models being obtained with traditional or machine learning approaches.

MATERIALS

We adopted the Health Search Database (HSD) which is a representative longitudinal database containing electronic healthcare records of approximately 2 million adults.

METHODS

We selected all patients aged 15 years or older being active in HSD between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2020 with no prior diagnosis of CKD. The following models were trained and tested using 20 candidate determinants for incident CKD: logistic regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), GAM, and GA2M. Their prediction performances were compared by calculating Area Under Curve (AUC) and Average Precision (AP).

RESULTS

Comparing the predictive performances of the 7 models, the AUC and AP for GBM and GA2M showed the highest values which were equal to 88.9%, 88.8% and 21.8%, 21.1%, respectively. These 2 models outperformed the others including logistic regression. In contrast to GBMs, GA2M kept the interpretability of variable combinations, including interactions and nonlinearities assessment.

DISCUSSION

Although GA2M is slightly less performant than light GBM, it is not "black-box" algorithm, so being simply interpretable using shape and heatmap functions. This evidence supports the fact machine learning techniques should be adopted in case of complex algorithms such as those predicting the risk of CKD.

CONCLUSION

The GA2M was reliably performant in predicting CKD in primary care. A related decision support system might be therefore implemented.

Focus on the Prevention of Acute Limb Ischemia: Centrality of the General Practitioner from the Point of View of the Internist

The thrombotic mechanism, being common to peripheral arterial disease (PAD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and stroke, is responsible for the highest number of deaths in the western world. However, while much has been done for the prevention, early diagnosis, therapy of AMI and stroke, the same cannot be said for PAD, which is a negative prognostic indicator for cardiovascular death. Acute limb ischemia (ALI) and chronic limb ischemia (CLI) are the most severe manifestations of PAD. They both are defined by the presence of PAD, rest pain, gangrene, or ulceration and we consider ALI if symptoms last less than 2 weeks and CLI if they last more than 2 weeks. The most frequent causes are certainly atherosclerotic and embolic mechanisms and, to a lesser extent, traumatic or surgical mechanisms. From a pathophysiological point of view, atherosclerotic, thromboembolic, inflammatory mechanisms are implicated. ALI is a medical emergency that puts both limb and the patient's life at risk. In patients over age 80 undergoing surgery, mortality remains high reaching approximately 40% as well as amputation approximately 11%. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the scientific evidence on the possibilities of primary and secondary prevention of ALI and to raise awareness among doctors involved in the management of ALI, in particular by describing the central role of the general practitioner.

Risk of end-stage kidney disease in kidney transplant recipients versus patients with native chronic kidney disease: multicentre unmatched and propensity-score matched analyses

BACKGROUND

In kidney transplant recipients (KTR), the end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) risk dependent on the risk factors acting in native chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains undefined.

METHODS

We compared risk and determinants of ESKD between 757 adult KTR and 1940 patients with native CKD before and after propensity-score (PS) analysis matched for unmodifiable risk factors [(age, sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)].

RESULTS

In unmatched cohorts, eGFR was lower in CKD versus KTR (45.9 ± 11.3 versus 59.2 ± 13.4 mL/min/1.73 m2, P < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, the unadjusted cumulative incidence of ESKD was consistently lower in unmatched KTR versus CKD. Conversely, in PS-matched analysis, the risk of ESKD in KTR was 78% lower versus CKD at 1 year of follow-up while progressively increased over time resulting similar to that of native CKD patients after 5 years and 2.3-fold higher than that observed in CKD at 10 years. R2 analysis in unmatched patients showed that the proportion of the outcome variance explained by traditional ESKD determinants was smaller in KTR versus native CKD (31% versus 70%). After PS matching, the risk of ESKD [hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (95% CI)] was significantly associated with systolic blood pressure (1.02, 1.01-1.02), phosphorus (1.31, 1.05-1.64), 24-h proteinuria (1.11, 1.05-1.17) and haemoglobin (0.85, 0.78-0.93) irrespective of KTR status. Similar data were obtained after matching also for modifiable risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In KTR, when compared with matched native CKD patients, the risk of ESKD is lower in the first 5 years and higher later on. Traditional determinants of ESKD account for one-third of the variability of time-to-graft failure.

Cardiovascular events and mortality in chronic kidney disease in primary care patients with previous type 2 diabetes and/or hypertension. A population-based epidemiological study (KIDNEES)

BACKGROUND

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) and Hypertension (HTN) are frequently associated with adverse outcomes. We aimed to estimate the impact of a prior diagnosis of T2D and/or HTN on clinical characteristics, cardiovascular events (CVE) and all-cause mortality (ACM) of patients with CKD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on primary care electronic health records of people without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, aged 18-90 years with incident CKD between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2017. The association between CKD groups classified according to prior diagnosis of T2D and/or HTN and risk of ACM and CVE at follow-up was evaluated with Cox and Fine-Gray regression models, respectively.

RESULTS

398,477 patients were included. Median age was 74 years and 55.2% were women. Individuals were classified as CKD with HTN (51.9%), CKD with T2D (3.87%), CKD with HTN/T2D (31.4%) and CKD without HTN/T2D (12.9%). In the multivariate analysis, with the CKD without HTN/T2D group as reference, the ACM Hazard Ratio (HR) was 0.74 (95%CI 0.72-0.75) for the CKD with HTN group, 0.81 (95%CI 0.79-0.83) for CKD with HTN/T2D and 1.14 (95%CI 1.10-1.19) for the CKD with T2D group. The sub distribution HRs for CVE were 1.40 (95%CI 1.34-1.47), 1.70 (95%CI 1.61-1.80) and 1.37 (95%CI 1.26-1.48), respectively.

CONCLUSION

In patients with CKD, the risk of ACM and CVE differed in patients with previous HTN and/or T2D. These comorbidities can help identify individuals at higher risk of adverse outcomes and improve the management of patients with CKD in primary care.

Precision Nephrology in Patients with Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease

Diabetes is the leading cause of kidney failure and specifically, diabetic kidney disease (DKD) occurs in up to 30% of all diabetic patients. Kidney disease attributed to diabetes is a major contributor to the global burden of the disease in terms of clinical and socio-economic impact, not only because of the risk of progression to End-Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD), but also because of the associated increase in cardiovascular (CV) risk. Despite the introduction of novel treatments that allow us to reduce the risk of future outcomes, a striking residual cardiorenal risk has been reported. This risk is explained by both the heterogeneity of DKD and the individual variability in response to nephroprotective treatments. Strategies that have been proposed to improve DKD patient care are to develop novel biomarkers that classify with greater accuracy patients with respect to their future risk (prognostic) and biomarkers that are able to predict the response to nephroprotective treatment (predictive). In this review, we summarize the principal prognostic biomarkers of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and the novel markers that help clinicians to individualize treatments and the basis of the characteristics that predict an optimal response.

Biopsy-proven CKD etiology and outcomes: the Chronic Kidney Disease Japan Cohort (CKD-JAC) study

BACKGROUND

The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guidelines advocate the cause-glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-albuminuria (CGA) classification for predicting outcomes. However, there is a dearth of data supporting the use of the cause of chronic kidney disease. This study aimed to address how to incorporate a prior biopsy-proven diagnosis in outcome prediction.

METHODS

We examined the association of biopsy-proven kidney disease diagnoses with kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and all-cause death before KFRT in patients with various biopsy-proven diagnoses (n = 778, analysis A) and patients with diabetes mellitus labeled with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy (DN), other biopsy-proven diseases and no biopsy (n = 1117, analysis B).

RESULTS

In analysis A, adding biopsy-proven diagnoses to the GFR-albuminuria (GA) classification improved the prediction of 8-year incidence of KFRT and all-cause death significantly regarding integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification index. Fine-Gray (FG) models with KFRT as a competing event showed significantly higher subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) for all-cause death in nephrosclerosis {4.12 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-15.2)], focal segmental glomerulosclerosis [3.77 (95% CI 1.09-13.1)]} and membranous nephropathy (MN) [2.91 (95% CI 1.02-8.30)] than in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), while the Cox model failed to show significant associations. Crescentic glomerulonephritis had the highest risk of all-cause death [SHR 5.90 (95% CI 2.05-17.0)]. MN had a significantly lower risk of KFRT than IgAN [SHR 0.45 (95% CI 0.24-0.84)]. In analysis B, other biopsy-proven diseases had a lower risk of KFRT than biopsy-proven DN in the FG model, with death as a competing event [SHR 0.62 (95% CI 0.39-0.97)].

CONCLUSIONS

The CGA classification is of greater value in predicting outcomes than the GA classification.

The Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease on Peripheral Artery Disease and Peripheral Revascularization

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a clinical condition characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Globally, CKD is also increasing in prevalence and incidence. The two principal kidney measures namely estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria have been found to be predictors of renal and cardiovascular (CV) endpoints including peripheral artery disease (PAD). The prevalence of PAD was increased in CKD patients and, particularly, in patients with more severe CKD stages. Despite the fact that revascularization strategies are suitable in CKD patients in similar fashion to non-CKD patients, few CKD patients underwent these procedures. In fact, if it is true that revascularization improves prognosis in PAD patients irrespective of baseline eGFR, it was also demonstrated that CKD patients, who underwent revascularization, were at higher risk for amputations, mortality, re-intervention and perioperative complications. With the present review article, we have examined the association between CKD, PAD and peripheral revascularization highlighting data about epidemiology, pathophysiologic mechanisms, and results from previous observational and intervention studies. We have also examined the future perspectives and challenges of research around the association between CKD and PAD.

Smoking habit as a risk amplifier in chronic kidney disease patients

Several studies showed the association between non-traditional risk factors [proteinuria and estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR)] and cardiovascular (CV) and renal outcomes. Nevertheless, the etiologic role of traditional CV risk factors in referred CKD patients is less defined. Herein, we examined the association between smoking habit and CV events, mortality and CKD progression. We undertook an observational analysis of 1306 stage III–V CKD patients. Smoking habit was modeled as a categorical (never, current or former smokers) and continuous (number of cigarettes/day) variable. Mean eGFR was 35.8 ± 12.5 mL/min/1.73 m². Never, current and former smokers were 61.1%, 10.8% and 28.1%. During a median follow-up of 2.87 years, current and former smokers were at significant risk for CV events (HRs of 1.93 [95% CI, 1.18–3.16] and 1.44 [95% CI, 1.01–2.05]) versus never smokers. Current smokers were at increased mortality risk (HR 2.13 [95% CI, 1.10–4.11]). Interactions were found between former smokers and proteinuria (p = 0.007) and diabetes (p = 0.041) for renal risk, and between current smokers and male gender (p = 0.044) and CKD stage V (p = 0.039) for renal and mortality risk. In referred CKD patients, smoking habit is independently associated with CV events and mortality. It acts as a risk “amplifier” for the association between other risk factors and renal outcomes.

15-year-change of phenotype and prognosis in non-dialysis CKD patients referred to a nephrology clinic

PURPOSE

Changes over time of phenotype and prognosis in CKD patients starting nephrology care are undefined. This information is critical to correctly plan and optimize healthcare resources and clinical management in tertiary care.

METHODS

We performed a long-term observational cohort study including 2,866 non-dialysis CKD patients newly referred to our nephrology clinic from 2004 to 2018. Three cohorts were constituted based on 5-year calendar intervals (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018). The changes over time of main demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics were compared among the three cohorts. We also compared between cohorts the risk of renal death (combined endpoint of renal replacement therapy-RRT, or death before RRT) as well as of the single components (RRT or death).

RESULTS

Across the three cohorts, we detected a significant increase in the prevalence of age ≥ 75 years (from 22.0 to 28.4%), male gender (from 53.1 to 62.1%), diabetes (from 32.6 to 39.5%), severe proteinuria ≥ 500 mg/24 h (from 46.9 to 52.4%). Mean eGFR at referral declined from 56.8 ± 27.0 to 49.6 ± 26.1 mL/min/1.73m². Incidence of renal death significantly declined over time (5.36, 3.22 and 4.54/100 pts-year in 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018 cohorts, respectively). As compared with patients referred in 2004-2008, adjusted risk of renal death was lower in patients referred in 2009-2013 (HR 0.49, 95%CI 0.34-0.69) and 2014-2018 (HR 0.61, 95%CI 0.45-0.84). Similar results were obtained for RRT, while mortality did not change over time.

CONCLUSIONS

In the last 15 years, phenotype of newly referred CKD patients has remarkably changed with increasing frequency of older patients and more severe disease; however, renal survival improved suggesting greater efficacy of nephrology care.

Nephrosclerosis impacts time trajectory of renal function and outcomes in elderly individuals with chronic kidney disease

Despite hypertension ranks among the leading causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD), the impact of chronic hypertensive nephropathy, the so-called 'nephrosclerosis' (NS), on CKD progression is often unpredictable, particularly in elderly population. We have conducted a prospective, observational study to define renal function patterns and outcomes in elderly CKD individuals with or without NS. Three hundred four individuals with an already established CKD were categorized according to the etiology of CKD. NS was defined as the presence of CKD associated with long-term essential hypertension, hypertensive retinopathy, left ventricular hypertrophy and minimal proteinuria. Time trajectories in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (CKD-Epi) were computed over a 4-year follow-up. In addition, we analyzed the occurrence of a composite outcome of doubling of serum creatinine levels, eGFR reduction ≥25% and/or the need of chronic renal replacement therapy. CKD was secondary to nephrosclerosis (CKD-NS) in 220 (72.3%). In the whole cohort, the average estimated annual GFR slope was 1.8 mL/min/1.73 m² eGFR decline was slower in CKD-NS as compared with others (1.4 vs 3.4 mL/min/1.73 m²; p<0.001). The composite renal outcome during follow-up occurred less frequently among elderly with CKD-NS (16/204 vs 14/70; p=0.01, crude HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.85) and was associated at logistic analyses with the etiology of CKD, background cardiovascular disease, total and low density lipoproteins (LDL) cholesterol, and glycemia levels (p value was ranging from 0.01 to 0.05). Despite being highly prevalent in the elderly, NS is associated with a more favorable renal disease course as compared with other conditions.

Types of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents and risk of end-stage kidney disease and death in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Despite the widespread use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) to treat anaemia, the risk of adverse outcomes associated with the use of different types of ESAs in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly investigated.

METHODS

From a pooled cohort of four observational studies, we selected CKD patients receiving short-acting (epoetin α/β; n = 299) or long-acting ESAs (darbepoetin and methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin β; n = 403). The primary composite endpoint was end-stage kidney disease (ESKD; dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause death. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the relative risk of the primary endpoint between short- and long-acting ESA users.

RESULTS

During follow-up [median 3.6 years (interquartile range 2.1-6.3)], the primary endpoint was registered in 401 patients [166 (72%) in the short-acting ESA group and 235 (58%) in the long-acting ESA group]. In the highest tertile of short-acting ESA dose, the adjusted risk of primary endpoint was 2-fold higher {hazard ratio [HR] 2.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-3.12]} than in the lowest tertile, whereas it did not change across tertiles of dose for long-acting ESA patients. Furthermore, the comparison of ESA type in each tertile of ESA dose disclosed a significant difference only in the highest tertile, where the risk of the primary endpoint was significantly higher in patients receiving short-acting ESAs [HR 1.56 (95% CI 1.09-2.24); P = 0.016]. Results were confirmed when ESA dose was analysed as continuous variable with a significant difference in the primary endpoint between short- and long-acting ESAs for doses >105 IU/kg/week.

CONCLUSIONS

Among non-dialysis CKD patients, the use of a short-acting ESA may be associated with an increased risk of ESKD or death versus long-acting ESAs when higher ESA doses are prescribed.

Predictive effect of salt intake on patient and kidney survival in non-dialysis CKD: competing risk analysis in older versus younger patients under nephrology care

BACKGROUND

The optimal level of salt intake remains ill-defined in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients under regular nephrology care. This unanswered question becomes critical in older patients who are exposed to higher risk of worsening of cardiorenal disease due to volemic changes.

METHODS

In this pooled analysis of four prospective studies in CKD, we compared the risk of all-cause mortality and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) between patients ≤65 and >65 years of age stratified by salt intake level (<6, 6-8 and >8 g/day) estimated from two measurements of 24-h urinary sodium.

RESULTS

The cohort included 1785 patients. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was 37 ± 21 mL/min/1.73 m2 overall, 41 ± 25 in younger patients and 34 ± 16 in older patients (P < 0.001). The median 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 143 mEq [interquartile range (IQR) 109-182] in all, 147 (112-185) in younger patients and 140 (106-179) in older patients (P = 0.012). Salt intake was ≤6, 6-8 and >8 g sodium chloride/day in 21.9, 26.2 and 52.0% of older patients and 18.6, 25.2 and 56.2% in younger patients, respectively (P = 0.145). During a median follow-up of 4.07 years we registered 383 ESKD and 260 all-cause deaths. In the whole cohort, the risks of ESKD and all-cause death did not differ by salt intake level. In older patients, ESKD risk [multi-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)] was significantly lower at salt intakes of 6-8 g/day [HR 0.577 (95% CI 0.361-0.924)] and >8 g/day [HR 0.564 (95% CI 0.382-0.833)] versus the reference group (<6 g/day). Mortality risk was higher in older versus younger patients, with no difference across salt intake categories. No effect of salt intake on ESKD and mortality was observed in younger patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CKD patients under nephrology care show a moderate salt intake (8.4 g/day) that is lower in older versus younger patients. In this context, older patients are not exposed to higher mortality across different levels of salt intake, while salt intake <6 g/day poses a greater risk of ESKD.

The Role of Prognostic and Predictive Biomarkers for Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is currently defined as the presence of proteinuria and/or an eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m² on the basis of the renal diagnosis. The global dimension of CKD is relevant, since its prevalence and incidence have doubled in the past three decades worldwide. A major complication that occurs in CKD patients is the development of cardiovascular (CV) disease, being the incidence rate of fatal/nonfatal CV events similar to the rate of ESKD in CKD. Moreover, CKD is a multifactorial disease where multiple mechanisms contribute to the individual prognosis. The correct development of novel biomarkers of CV risk may help clinicians to ameliorate the management of CKD patients. Biomarkers of CV risk in CKD patients are classifiable as prognostic, which help to improve CV risk prediction regardless of treatment, and predictive, which allow the selection of individuals who are likely to respond to a specific treatment. Several prognostic (cystatin C, cardiac troponins, markers of inflammation, and fibrosis) and predictive (genes, metalloproteinases, and complex classifiers) biomarkers have been developed. Despite previous biomarkers providing information on the pathophysiological mechanisms of CV risk in CKD beyond proteinuria and eGFR, only a minority have been adopted in clinical use. This mainly depends on heterogeneous results and lack of validation of biomarkers. The purpose of this review is to present an update on the already assessed biomarkers of CV risk in CKD and examine the strategies for a correct development of biomarkers in clinical practice. Development of both predictive and prognostic biomarkers is an important task for nephrologists. Predictive biomarkers are useful for designing novel clinical trials (enrichment design) and for better understanding of the variability in response to the current available treatments for CV risk. Prognostic biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification and anticipate diagnosis of CV disease, such as heart failure and coronary heart disease.

Increasing tendency of urine protein is a risk factor for rapid eGFR decline in patients with CKD: A machine learning-based prediction model by using a big database

Artificial intelligence is increasingly being adopted in medical fields to predict various outcomes. In particular, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is problematic because it often progresses to end-stage kidney disease. However, the trajectories of kidney function depend on individual patients. In this study, we propose a machine learning-based model to predict the rapid decline in kidney function among CKD patients by using a big hospital database constructed from the information of 118,584 patients derived from the electronic medical records system. The database included the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of each patient, recorded at least twice over a period of 90 days. The data of 19,894 patients (16.8%) were observed to satisfy the CKD criteria. We characterized the rapid decline of kidney function by a decline of 30% or more in the eGFR within a period of two years and classified the available patients into two groups—those exhibiting rapid eGFR decline and those exhibiting non-rapid eGFR decline. Following this, we constructed predictive models based on two machine learning algorithms. Longitudinal laboratory data including urine protein, blood pressure, and hemoglobin were used as covariates. We used longitudinal statistics with a baseline corresponding to 90-, 180-, and 360-day windows prior to the baseline point. The longitudinal statistics included the exponentially smoothed average (ESA), where the weight was defined to be 0.9*(t/b), where t denotes the number of days prior to the baseline point and b denotes the decay parameter. In this study, b was taken to be 7 (7-day ESA). We used logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) algorithms based on Python code with scikit-learn library (https://scikit-learn.org/) for model creation. The areas under the curve for LR and RF were 0.71 and 0.73, respectively. The 7-day ESA of urine protein ranked within the first two places in terms of importance according to both models. Further, other features related to urine protein were likely to rank higher than the rest. The LR and RF models revealed that the degree of urine protein, especially if it exhibited an increasing tendency, served as a prominent risk factor associated with rapid eGFR decline.

Area Deprivation and Risk of Death and CKD Progression: Long-Term Cohort Study in Patients under Unrestricted Nephrology Care

BACKGROUND

Area deprivation index (ADI) associates with prognosis in non-dialysis CKD. However, no study has evaluated this association in CKD patients under unrestricted nephrology care.

METHODS

We performed a long-term prospective study to assess the role of deprivation in CKD progression and mortality in stage 1-4 CKD patients under regular nephrology care, living in Naples (Italy). We used ADI calculated at census block levels, standardized to mean values of whole population in Naples, and linked to patients by georeference method. After 12 months of "goal-oriented" nephrology treatment, we compared the risk of death or composite renal outcomes (end-stage kidney disease or doubling of serum creatinine) in the tertiles of standardized ADI. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline was evaluated by mixed effects model for repeated eGFR measurements.

RESULTS

We enrolled 715 consecutive patients (age: 64 ± 15 years; 59.1% males; eGFR: 49 ± 22 mL/min/1.73 m2). Most (75.2%) were at the lowest national ADI quintile. At referral, demographic, clinical, and therapeutic features were similar across ADI tertiles; after 12 months, treatment intensification allowed better control of hypertension, proteinuria, hypercholesterolaemia, and anaemia with no difference across ADI tertiles. During the subsequent long-term follow-up (10.5 years [interquartile range 8.2-12.6]), 166 renal events and 249 deaths were registered. ADI independently associated with all-cause death (p for trend = 0.020) and non-cardiovascular (CV) mortality (p for trend = 0.045), while CV mortality did not differ (p for trend = 0.252). Risk of composite renal outcomes was similar across ADI tertiles (p for trend = 0.467). The same held true for eGFR decline (p for trend = 0.675).

CONCLUSIONS

In CKD patients under regular nephrology care, ADI is not associated with CKD progression, while it is associated with all-cause death due to an excess of non-CV mortality.

Precision Nephrology Is a Non-Negligible State of Mind in Clinical Research: Remember the Past to Face the Future

CKD is a major public health problem. It is characterized by a multitude of risk factors that, when aggregated, can strongly modify outcome. While major risk factors, namely, albuminuria and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) have been well analyzed, a large variability in disease progression still remains. This happens because (1) the weight of each risk factor varies between populations (general population or CKD cohort), countries, and single individuals and (2) response to nephroprotective drugs is so heterogeneous that a non-negligible part of patients maintains a high cardiorenal risk despite optimal treatment. Precision nephrology aims at individualizing cardiorenal prognosis and therapy. The purpose of this review is to focus on the risk stratification in different areas, such as clinical practice, population research, and interventional trials, and to describe the strategies used in observational or experimental studies to afford individual-level evidence. The future of precision nephrology is also addressed. Observational studies can in fact provide more adequate findings by collecting more information on risk factors and building risk prediction models that can be applied to each individual in a reliable fashion. Similarly, new clinical trial designs can reduce the individual variability in response to treatment and improve individual outcomes.

Contribution of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers to Clinical Research on Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined as the presence of albuminuria and/or reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, is considered a growing public health problem, with its prevalence and incidence having almost doubled in the past three decades. The implementation of novel biomarkers in clinical practice is crucial, since it could allow earlier diagnosis and lead to an improvement in CKD outcomes. Nevertheless, a clear guidance on how to develop biomarkers in the setting of CKD is not yet available. The aim of this review is to report the framework for implementing biomarkers in observational and intervention studies. Biomarkers are classified as either prognostic or predictive; the first type is used to identify the likelihood of a patient to develop an endpoint regardless of treatment, whereas the second type is used to determine whether the patient is likely to benefit from a specific treatment. Many single assays and complex biomarkers were shown to improve the prediction of cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in CKD patients on top of the traditional risk factors. Biomarkers were also shown to improve clinical trial designs. Understanding the correct ways to validate and implement novel biomarkers in CKD will help to mitigate the global burden of CKD and to improve the individual prognosis of these high-risk patients.

Reclassification of chronic kidney disease patients for end-stage renal disease risk by proteinuria indexed to estimated glomerular filtration rate: multicentre prospective study in nephrology clinics

BACKGROUND

In non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), absolute proteinuria (Uprot) depends on the extent of kidney damage and residual glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We therefore evaluated, as compared with Uprot, the strength of association of proteinuria indexed to estimated GFR (eGFR) with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk.

METHODS

In a multi-cohort prospective study in 3957 CKD patients of Stages G3-G5 referred to nephrology clinics, we tested two multivariable Cox models for ESRD risk, with either Uprot (g/24 h) or filtration-adjusted proteinuria (F-Uprot) calculated as Uprot/eGFR ×100.

RESULTS

Mean ± SD age was 67 ± 14 years, males 60%, diabetics 29%, cardiovascular disease (CVD) 34%, eGFR 32 ± 13 mL/min/1.73 m2, median (interquartile range) Uprot 0.41 (0.12-1.29) g/24 h and F-Uprot 1.41 (0.36-4.93) g/24 h per 100 mL/min/1.73 m2 eGFR. Over a median follow-up of 44 months, 862 patients reached ESRD. At competing risk analysis, ESRD risk progressively increased when F-Uprot was 1.0-4.9 and ≥5.0 versus <1.0 g/24 h per 100 mL/min/1.73 m2 eGFR in Stages G3a-G4 (P < 0.001) and Stage G5 (P = 0.002). Multivariable Cox analysis showed that Uprot predicts ESRD in Stages G3a-G4 while in G5 the effect was not significant; conversely, F-Uprot significantly predicted ESRD at all stages. The F-Uprot model allowed a significantly better prediction versus the Uprot model according to Akaike information criterion. Net reclassification improvement was 12.2% (95% confidence interval 4.2-21.1), with higher reclassification in elderly, diabetes and CVD, as well as in diabetic nephropathy and glomerulonephritis, and in CKD Stages G4 and G5.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients referred to nephrology clinics, F-Uprot predicts ESRD at all stages of overt CKD and improves, as compared with Uprot, reclassification of patients for renal risk, especially in more advanced and complicated disease.

Sodium Intake and Chronic Kidney Disease

In Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) patients, elevated blood pressure (BP) is a frequent finding and is traditionally considered a direct consequence of their sodium sensitivity. Indeed, sodium and fluid retention, causing hypervolemia, leads to the development of hypertension in CKD. On the other hand, in non-dialysis CKD patients, salt restriction reduces BP levels and enhances anti-proteinuric effect of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors in non-dialysis CKD patients. However, studies on the long-term effect of low salt diet (LSD) on cardio-renal prognosis showed controversial findings. The negative results might be the consequence of measurement bias (spot urine and/or single measurement), reverse epidemiology, as well as poor adherence to diet. In end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), dialysis remains the only effective means to remove dietary sodium intake. The mismatch between intake and removal of sodium leads to fluid overload, hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy, therefore worsening the prognosis of ESKD patients. This imposes the implementation of a LSD in these patients, irrespective of the lack of trials proving the efficacy of this measure in these patients. LSD is, therefore, a rational and basic tool to correct fluid overload and hypertension in all CKD stages. The implementation of LSD should be personalized, similarly to diuretic treatment, keeping into account the volume status and true burden of hypertension evaluated by ambulatory BP monitoring.

Development of an Online Health Care Assessment for Preventive Medicine: A Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

In the era of information explosion, the use of the internet to assist with clinical practice and diagnosis has become a cutting-edge area of research. The application of medical informatics allows patients to be aware of their clinical conditions, which may contribute toward the prevention of several chronic diseases and disorders.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we applied machine learning techniques to construct a medical database system from electronic medical records (EMRs) of subjects who have undergone health examination. This system aims to provide online self-health evaluation to clinicians and patients worldwide, enabling personalized health and preventive health.

METHODS

We built a medical database system based on the literature, and data preprocessing and cleaning were performed for the database. We utilized both supervised and unsupervised machine learning technology to analyze the EMR data to establish prediction models. The models with EMR databases were then applied to the internet platform.

RESULTS

The validation data were used to validate the online diagnosis prediction system. The accuracy of the prediction model for metabolic syndrome reached 91%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.904 in this system. For chronic kidney disease, the prediction accuracy of the model reached 94.7%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.982. In addition, the system also provided disease diagnosis visualization via clustering, allowing users to check their outcome compared with those in the medical database, enabling increased awareness for a healthier lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

Our web-based health care machine learning system allowed users to access online diagnosis predictions and provided a health examination report. Users could understand and review their health status accordingly. In the future, we aim to connect hospitals worldwide with our platform, so that health care practitioners can make diagnoses or provide patient education to remote patients. This platform can increase the value of preventive medicine and telemedicine.

Atherosclerotic-nephropathy: an updated narrative review

The increased prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in elderly patients recognizes, as main cause, the long-term exposure to atherosclerosis and hypertension. Chronic ischemic damage due to critical renal arterial stenosis induces oxidative stress and intra-renal inflammation, resulting in fibrosis and microvascular remodelling, that is the histological picture of atherosclerotic renal vascular disease (ARVD). The concomitant presence of a long history of hypertension may generate intimal thickening and luminal narrowing of renal arteries and arterioles, glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy, more typically expression of hypertensive nephropathy. These complex mechanisms contribute to the development of CKD and the progression to End Stage Kidney Disease. In elderly CKD patients, the distinction among these nephropathies may be problematic; therefore, ischemic and hypertensive nephropathies can be joined in a unique clinical syndrome defined as atherosclerotic nephropathy. The availability of novel diagnostic procedures, such as intra-vascular ultrasound and BOLD-MRI, in addition to traditional imaging, have opened new scenarios, because these tools allow to identify ischemic lesions responsive to renal revascularization. Indeed, although trials have deflated the role of renal revascularization on the renal outcomes, it should be still used to avoid dialysis initiation and/or to reduce blood pressure in selected elderly patients at high risk. Nonetheless, lifestyle modifications (smoking cessation, increased physical activity), statins and antiplatelet use, as well as cautious use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, remain the main therapeutic approach aimed at slowing the renal damage progression. Mesenchymal stem cells and Micro-RNA are promising target of anti-fibrotic therapy, which might provide potential benefit in ARVD patients, though safety and efficacy profile in humans is unknown too.

Renal resistive index in chronic kidney disease patients: Possible determinants and risk profile

BACKGROUND

High ultrasound renal resistive index (RI) predicts poor cardiorenal outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and has recently emerged as a marker of nephroprotective drugs response. Thus, having a risk profile of CKD patients with abnormal RI may be relevant for the clinicians.

METHODS

Consecutive patients referred to our non-dialysis CKD clinic from 01/01/2016 to 01/12/2016, were evaluated by clinical and ultrasound analysis. Inclusion criteria were age >18 years and presence of CKD defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 mL/min/1.73m2 and/or proteinuria>0.150g/24h. Renal artery stenosis, solitary kidney, acute kidney injury were the main exclusion criteria. RI value was the mean of three measures in segmental arteries in each kidney. Univariate analysis was performed to evaluate associations between continuous RI and clinical variables. Multivariate linear regression analysis, based on stepwise method with an elimination criterion of p<0.10, was used to assess the independent correlates of RI as continuous variable.

RESULTS

We studied 73 patients (69.9% men). Mean RI was 0.67±0.09. Frequencies of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) were 19.2% and 20.6% and median eGFR 54.1 [30.0-84.6] mL/min/1.73m2. From low (<0.65) to intermediate (0.65-0.70) to high (>0.70) RI categories, eGFR and haemoglobin levels were decreased while diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), phosphate and smokers were higher. At univariate analysis, RI was significantly associated with age, presence of diabetes, CVD, serum phosphorus, eGFR, Urea and haemoglobin. Multi-adjusted stepwise regression analysis showed that lower eGFR levels (p<0.001), diabetes (p = 0.042), CVD (p = 0.009), smoking habit (p = 0.021) and higher serum phosphorus levels (p = 0.001) were associated with higher continuous RI. Serum phosphorus showed Area Under the Curves (AUC) values of 0.714 and 0.664 for discriminating RI cut-offs of 0.70 and 0.65.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis suggests that RI is higher in CKD patients with CVD, diabetes, smoking habit and higher serum phosphorus, regardless of eGFR. Further studies are needed to verify whether higher RI indicates more complex pathway of intrarenal damage, besides and beyond kidney function.

Unraveling Cardiovascular Risk in Renal Patients: A New Take on Old Tale

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m² and/or an increase in urine protein excretion (i.e., albuminuria), is an important public health problem. Prevalence and incidence of CKD have risen by 87 and 89%, worldwide, over the last three decades. The onset of either albuminuria and eGFR reduction has found to predict higher cardiovascular (CV) risk, being this association strong, independent from traditional CV risk factors and reproducible across different setting of patients. Indeed, this relationship is present not only in high risk cohorts of CKD patients under regular nephrology care and in those with hypertension or type 2 diabetes, but also in general, otherwise healthy population. As underlying mechanisms of damage, it has hypothesized and partially proved that eGFR reduction and albuminuria can directly promote endothelial dysfunction, accelerate atherosclerosis and the deleterious effects of hypertension. Moreover, the predictive accuracy of risk prediction models was consistently improved when eGFR and albuminuria have been added to the traditional CV risk factors (i.e., Framingham risk score). These important findings led to consider CKD as an equivalent CV risk. Although it is hard to accept this definition in absence of additional reports from scientific Literature, a great effort has been done to reduce the CV risk in CKD patients. A large number of clinical trials have tested the effect of drugs on CV risk reduction. The targets used in these trials were different, including blood pressure, lipids, albuminuria, inflammation, and glucose. All these trials have determined an overall better control of CV risk, performed by clinicians. However, a non-negligible residual risk is still present and has been attributed to: (1) missed response to study treatment in a consistent portion of patients, (2) role of many CV risk factors in CKD patients not yet completely investigated. These combined observations provide a strong argument that kidney measures should be regularly included in individual prediction models for improving CV risk stratification. Further studies are needed to identify high risk patients and novel therapeutic targets to improve CV protection in CKD patients.

Cardiorenal prognosis by residual proteinuria level in diabetic chronic kidney disease: pooled analysis of four cohort studies

Background

No study has assessed whether the prognosis of coexisting diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease (DM-CKD) is dictated by DM per se or by the extent of proteinuria.

Methods

In this pooled analysis of four prospective studies in CKD patients treated with drugs inhibiting the renin-angiotensin system, we compared the risk of all-cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) between patients with (n = 693) and without diabetes (n = 1481) stratified by proteinuria level (<0.15, 0.15-0.49, 0.5-1 and  >1 g/day).

Results

The group with DM-CKD was older (69 ± 11 versus 65 ± 15 years), had a higher body mass index (29.6 ± 5.4 versus 27.5 ± 4.8 kg/m2) and systolic blood pressure (143 ± 19 versus 136 ± 18 mmHg), prevalent CV disease (48% versus 29%) and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (34.5 ± 17.9 versus 36.6 ± 19.0 mL/min/1.73 m2). During 4.07 years of follow-up, there were 466 patients with ESRD, 334 deaths and 401 CV events occurred. In the subgroup with urine protein <0.15 g/day (N = 662), the risks of ESRD, CV events and mortality were similar in diabetic and non-diabetic patients. Conversely, in DM-CKD patients, the mortality risk was higher in proteinuric patients {hazard ratio 1.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.95); 1.99 (1.26-3.15) and 1.98 (1.28-3.06) for proteinuria 0.15-0.49, 0.5-1 and >1 g/day, respectively}, whereas in non-diabetics the mortality risk increased only for proteinuria 0.5-1 g/day [HR 1.60 (95% CI 1.07-2.40)] and >1 g/day [HR 1.69 (95% CI1.20-2.55)]. In both groups, CV risk had a trend similar to that of mortality. ESRD risk increased progressively across strata >0.5 g/day independent of diabetic status.

Conclusions

We provide evidence that patients with non-proteinuric DM-CKD are not exposed to higher cardiorenal risk. In contrast, in the presence of moderate proteinuria and diabetes per se is associated with a higher risk of mortality and CV events, whereas the entity of abnormal proteinuria modulates ESRD risk independent of diabetes.

Sex Differences in the Progression of CKD Among Older Patients: Pooled Analysis of 4 Cohort Studies

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Data for the association of sex with chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression are conflicting, a relationship this study sought to examine.

STUDY DESIGN

Pooled analysis of 4 Italian observational cohort studies.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

1,311 older men and 1,024 older women with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<45mL/min/1.73m² followed up in renal clinics.

PREDICTOR

Sex.

OUTCOMES

End-stage kidney disease (ESKD), defined as maintenance dialysis or kidney transplantation, as the primary outcome; all-cause mortality and eGFR decline as secondary outcomes.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox proportional hazard analysis to estimate the relative risk for ESKD and mortality and linear mixed models to estimate the rate of eGFR decline.

RESULTS

Age, systolic blood pressure, and use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors were similar in men and women. Baseline eGFRs were 27.6±10.2 in men and 26.0±10.6mL/min/1.73m² in women (P<0.001), while median proteinuria was lower in women (protein excretion, 0.45 [IQR, 0.14-1.10] g/d) compared with men (0.69 [IQR 0.19-1.60] g/d; P<0.001). During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, 757 developed ESKD (59.4% men) and 471 died (58.4% men). The adjusted risks for ESKD and mortality were higher in men (HRs of 1.50 [95% CI, 1.28-1.77] and 1.30 [95% CI, 1.06-1.60], respectively). This finding was consistent across CKD stages. We observed a significant interaction between sex and proteinuria, with the risk for ESKD in men being significantly greater than for women at a level of proteinuria of ∼0.5g/d or greater. The slope of decline in eGFR was steeper in men (-2.09; 95% CI, -2.21 to-1.97mL/min/1.73m² per year) than in women (-1.79; 95% CI, -1.92 to-1.66mL/min/1.73m² per year; P<0.001). Although sex differences in eGFR decline were not different across CKD stages (P=0.3), the difference in slopes between men and women was progressively larger with proteinuria >0.5g/d (P = 0.04).

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding; only whites were included.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess renal risk in men may, at least in part, be related to higher levels of proteinuria in men compared with women.

Generalizability of SPRINT-CKD cohort to CKD patients referred to renal clinics

BACKGROUND

The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial-CKD substudy (SPRINT-CKD) has suggested a lower blood pressure (BP) target in CKD patients. However, it is questionable whether the SPRINT-CKD results may be generalized to CKD patients under nephrology care.

METHODS

To compare SPRINT-CKD cohort versus referred CKD patients in terms of patients' risk profile and outcomes, we pooled four prospective cohorts of consecutive CKD patients referred to 40 Italian renal clinics. We implemented the same inclusion/exclusion criteria adopted in SPRINT and same endpoints: (1) a composite of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular (CV) events (2) all-cause mortality and (3) ESRD (composite of chronic dialysis, transplantation or 50% eGFR decline). Findings were compared with those attained in the control arm of SPRINT-CKD trial that mirrored standard BP management in clinical practice.

RESULTS

Out of 2847 patients referred to renal clinics, only 20.1% (n = 571) were identified as eligible for SPRINT-CKD. Age (72 ± 9 years), gender (42.2% female) and systolic BP (142 ± 10 mmHg) did not differ from the SPRINT-CKD while referred patients had a worse risk profile at baseline: larger prevalence of prior CV disease (25.7% versus 19.5%), higher Framingham risk score (31.9 ± 14.6% versus 27.2 ± 24.7%) and lower GFR (38 ± 11 versus 48 ± 10 mL/min/1.73 m²). During 4.0 years of follow-up, 86 CV events (50 fatal), 78 all-cause death and 59 ESRD occurred with annual incidence rates higher than those observed in the SPRINT-CKD control group (CV events 4.18 vs 3.19; all-cause death 3.64 vs 2.21; ESRD 2.80 vs 0.41%/year).

CONCLUSIONS

The SPRINT-CKD cohort is poorly representative of the CKD population under nephrology care, thus suggesting that conclusions may not apply to patients referred to nephrologist.

Management of hepatitis C virus infection in patients with chronic kidney disease: position statement of the joint committee of Italian association for the study of the liver (AISF), Italian society of internal medicine (SIMI), Italian society of infectious and tropical disease (SIMIT) and Italian society of nephrology (SIN)

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now considered a systemic disease due to the occurrence of extra-hepatic manifestations. Among these, the renal involvement is frequent. HCV infection, in fact, is strongly associated with proteinuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and negatively affects the prognosis of renal patients. In the last few years, availability of more specific and effective drugs against HCV has dramatically changed the clinical course of this disease. These drugs may provide further advantages in the CKD population as a whole by reducing progression of renal disease, mortality rate and by increasing the survival of graft in renal transplant recipients. The strict pathogenetic and prognostic link between HCV infection and CKD requires an ongoing relationship among the healthcare professionals involved in the treatment of both HCV infection and CKD. Therefore, Scientific Societies involved in the care of this high-risk population in Italy have organized a joint expert panel. The aim of the panel is to produce a position statement that can be used in daily clinical practice for the management of HCV infected patients across the whole spectrum of renal disease, from the conservative phase to renal replacement treatments (dialysis and transplantation). Sharing specific evidence-based expertise of different professional healthcare is the first step to obtain a common ground of knowledge on which to instate a model for multidisciplinary management of this high-risk population. Statements cover seven areas including epidemiology of CKD, HCV-induced glomerular damage, HCV-related renal risk, staging of liver disease in patients with CKD, prevention of transmission of HCV in hemodialysis units, treatment of HCV infection and management of HCV in kidney transplantation.

Competing-Risk Analysis of Death and End Stage Kidney Disease by Hyperkalaemia Status in Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Receiving Stable Nephrology Care

Hyperkalaemia burden in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) under nephrology care is undefined. We prospectively followed 2443 patients with two visits (referral and control with 12-month interval) in 46 nephrology clinics. Patients were stratified in four categories of hyperkalaemia (serum potassium, sK ≥ 5.0 mEq/L) by sK at visit 1 and 2: Absent (no-no), Resolving (yes-no), New Onset (no-yes), Persistent (yes-yes). We assessed competing risks of end stage kidney disease (ESKD) and death after visit 2. Age was 65 ± 15 years, eGFR 35 ± 17 mL/min/1.73 m², proteinuria 0.40 (0.14–1.21) g/24 h. In the two visits sK was 4.8 ± 0.6 and levels ≥6 mEq/L were observed in 4%. Hyperkalaemia was absent in 46%, resolving 17%, new onset 15% and persistent 22%. Renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors (RASI) were prescribed in 79% patients. During 3.6-year follow-up, 567 patients reached ESKD and 349 died. Multivariable competing risk analysis (sub-hazard ratio-sHR, 95% Confidence Interval-CI) evidenced that new onset (sHR 1.34, 95% CI 1.05–1.72) and persistent (sHR 1.27, 95% CI 1.02–1.58) hyperkalaemia predicted higher ESKD risk versus absent, independently from main determinants of outcome including eGFR change. Conversely, no effect on mortality was observed. Results were confirmed by testing sK as continuous variable. Therefore, in CKD under nephrology care, mild-to-moderate hyperkalaemia status is common (37%) and predicts per se higher ESKD risk but not mortality.

Management of hepatitis C virus infection in patients with chronic kidney disease: position statement of the joint committee of Italian association for the study of the liver (AISF), Italian society of internal medicine (SIMI), Italian society of infectious and tropical disease (SIMIT) and Italian society of nephrology (SIN)

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now considered a systemic disease due to the occurrence of extra-hepatic manifestations. Among these, the renal involvement is frequent. HCV infection, in fact, is strongly associated with proteinuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and negatively affects the prognosis of renal patients. In the last few years, availability of more specific and effective drugs against HCV has dramatically changed the clinical course of this disease. These drugs may provide further advantages in the CKD population as a whole by reducing progression of renal disease, mortality rate and by increasing the survival of graft in renal transplant recipients. The strict pathogenetic and prognostic link between HCV infection and CKD requires an ongoing relationship among the healthcare professionals involved in the treatment of both HCV infection and CKD. Therefore, Scientific Societies involved in the care of this high-risk population in Italy have organized a joint expert panel. The aim of the panel is to produce a position statement that can be used in daily clinical practice for the management of HCV infected patients across the whole spectrum of renal disease, from the conservative phase to renal replacement treatments (dialysis and transplantation). Sharing specific evidence-based expertise of different professional healthcare is the first step to obtain a common ground of knowledge on which to instate a model for multidisciplinary management of this high-risk population. Statements cover seven areas including epidemiology of CKD, HCV-induced glomerular damage, HCV-related renal risk, staging of liver disease in patients with CKD, prevention of transmission of HCV in hemodialysis units, treatment of HCV infection and management of HCV in kidney transplantation.

Management of hepatitis C virus infection in patients with chronic kidney disease: position statement of the joint committee of Italian association for the study of the liver (AISF), Italian society of internal medicine (SIMI), Italian society of infectious and tropical disease (SIMIT) and Italian society of nephrology (SIN)

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now considered a systemic disease due to the occurrence of extra-hepatic manifestations. Among these, the renal involvement is frequent. HCV infection, in fact, is strongly associated with proteinuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and negatively affects the prognosis of renal patients. In the last few years, availability of more specific and effective drugs against HCV has dramatically changed the clinical course of this disease. These drugs may provide further advantages in the CKD population as a whole by reducing progression of renal disease, mortality rate and by increasing the survival of graft in renal transplant recipients. The strict pathogenetic and prognostic link between HCV infection and CKD requires an ongoing relationship among the healthcare professionals involved in the treatment of both HCV infection and CKD. Therefore, Scientific Societies involved in the care of this high-risk population in Italy have organized a joint expert panel. The aim of the panel is to produce a position statement that can be used in daily clinical practice for the management of HCV infected patients across the whole spectrum of renal disease, from the conservative phase to renal replacement treatments (dialysis and transplantation). Sharing specific evidence-based expertise of different professional healthcare is the first step to obtain a common ground of knowledge on which to instate a model for multidisciplinary management of this high-risk population. Statements cover seven areas including epidemiology of CKD, HCV-induced glomerular damage, HCV-related renal risk, staging of liver disease in patients with CKD, prevention of transmission of HCV in hemodialysis units, treatment of HCV infection and management of HCV in kidney transplantation.

Management of hepatitis C virus infection in patients with chronic kidney disease: position statement of the joint committee of Italian association for the study of the liver (AISF), Italian society of internal medicine (SIMI), Italian society of infectious and tropical disease (SIMIT) and Italian society of nephrology (SIN)

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is now considered a systemic disease due to the occurrence of extra-hepatic manifestations. Among these, the renal involvement is frequent. HCV infection, in fact, is strongly associated with proteinuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and negatively affects the prognosis of renal patients. In the last few years, availability of more specific and effective drugs against HCV has dramatically changed the clinical course of this disease. These drugs may provide further advantages in the CKD population as a whole by reducing progression of renal disease, mortality rate and by increasing the survival of graft in renal transplant recipients. The strict pathogenetic and prognostic link between HCV infection and CKD requires an ongoing relationship among the healthcare professionals involved in the treatment of both HCV infection and CKD. Therefore, Scientific Societies involved in the care of this high-risk population in Italy have organized a joint expert panel. The aim of the panel is to produce a position statement that can be used in daily clinical practice for the management of HCV infected patients across the whole spectrum of renal disease, from the conservative phase to renal replacement treatments (dialysis and transplantation). Sharing specific evidence-based expertise of different professional healthcare is the first step to obtain a common ground of knowledge on which to instate a model for multidisciplinary management of this high-risk population. Statements cover seven areas including epidemiology of CKD, HCV-induced glomerular damage, HCV-related renal risk, staging of liver disease in patients with CKD, prevention of transmission of HCV in hemodialysis units, treatment of HCV infection and management of HCV in kidney transplantation.

Prognosis and determinants of serum PTH changes over time in 1-5 CKD stage patients followed in tertiary care

International Guidelines for mineral bone disorders recommend that in Non Dialytic-Chronic Kidney Disease (ND-CKD) clinical decisions should be based on the trend of serum PTH changes over time rather than on a single value. However, the prognostic impact of these changes in ND-CKD patients remains unknown. We performed a multicenter cohort study in ND-CKD patients (stage 1-5) followed for 36 months in 24 Italian Nephrology Units. PTH changes (ΔPTH) were defined as the absolute differences between all available PTH measurements following the first control and basal value. Primary endpoint in this subanalysis was renal death (End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) or all-causes death before ESRD). Association between renal death and ΔPTH was assessed by time-dependent Cox model for repeated measurements. Out of the original cohort (N = 884), we selected 543 patients (66.3±15.4 ys, 58.4% males) with at least two serum PTH measurements. At baseline, eGFR was 36 (IQR: 22.4-56.8) mL/min/1.73m2 and serum PTH 46 (IQR: 28-81) pg/mL. ΔPTH was in median 0 (IQR:-18/18) pg/mL. Basal predictors of longitudinal PTH increments were higher serum phosphate, more advanced CKD stages and lower serum PTH. Fully adjusted Cox model with ΔPTH quartiles as discrete time-dependent covariate showed a significant risk of renal death in the highest quartile (HR: 1.91; 95%CI:1.08-3.38; P = 0.026). Considering ΔPTH, as continuous time-dependent variable, (HR:1.02; 95%C.I.: 1.01-1.04; P = 0.004), risk of renal death progressively rose as ΔPTH increased. An increment in serum PTH over time is associated with a worse prognosis in ND-CKD patients, independently from baseline or any absolute concentration of serum PTH and phosphate.

Red cell distribution width and renal outcome in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease

Higher red cell distribution width (RDW) has been reported to predict mortality among patients with various diseases, including chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, whether RDW is associated with renal outcome remains unclear. We investigated the relationship between RDW and renal outcome in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD (NDD-CKD). This prospective, observational study of patients with CKD was conducted at a single nephrology department. First, we performed regression analyses for the decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) during the first 3 months of observation to determine its short-term association with RDW. Next, we categorized baseline RDW into two groups by its median (13.5%) and performed Cox regression analyses to investigate whether higher RDW was an independent predictor of renal outcomes defined as a composite of the initiation of dialysis and doubling of the serum creatinine concentration. Furthermore, we repeated the analyses to confirm whether the transition of the RDW category during the first 3 months would also predict renal outcomes. We enrolled 703 patients. Baseline RDW showed a non-linear association with the eGFR decline during the first 3 months, with a greater negative correlation at the lower end of the RDW distribution. Over a median follow-up of 1.8 years, 178 patients (25.3%) reached the renal endpoint. Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed that patients with higher RDW had a higher risk of developing renal outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–2.07) than did those with lower RDW. Furthermore, patients with sustained, higher RDW demonstrated a significantly higher risk than did those with consistently lower RDW (adjusted HR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.02–2.67). In conclusion, higher RDW was independently associated with worse renal outcome in patients with NDD-CKD. RDW could be an additional prognostic marker of the progression of CKD.

Lower serum calcium is independently associated with CKD progression

Disturbances in calcium metabolism are common in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but whether they are associated with subsequent kidney function decline is less clear. In a CKD 3-5 cohort of 15,755 adult citizens of Stockholm with creatinine tests taken during 2006-2011 and concurrent calcium testing at cohort entry, we investigated the association between baseline serum calcium and the subsequent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, by CKD-EPI) decline using linear mixed models. Mean (SD) baseline corrected serum calcium was 9.6 (0.5) mg/dL. Mean (95%-confidence interval [CI]) eGFR decline was -0.82 (-0.90; -0.74) mL/min/1.73 m2/year. In advanced CKD stages, higher baseline serum calcium was associated with less rapid kidney function decline. The adjusted change (95%-CI) in eGFR decline associated with each mg/dL increase in baseline serum calcium was -0.10 (-0.28; 0.26), 0.39 (0.07; 0.71), 0.34 (-0.02; 0.70) and 0.68 (0.36; 1.00) mL/min/1.73 m2/year for individuals in CKD stage 3a, 3b, 4, and 5, respectively. In a subgroup of patients using vitamin D supplements, the association between baseline serum calcium and CKD progression was eliminated, especially in CKD stage 3b and 4. To conclude, in individuals with CKD stage 3b to 5, lower baseline corrected serum calcium, rather than higher baseline serum calcium, associated with a more rapid CKD progression. Lower serum corrected calcium seems to be indicative for vitamin D deficiency.

Raising awareness on the therapeutic role of cholecalciferol in CKD: a multidisciplinary-based opinion

Vitamin D is recognized to play an essential role in health and disease. In kidney disease, vitamin D analogs have gained recognition for their involvement and potential therapeutic importance. Nephrologists are aware of the use of oral native vitamin D supplementation, however, uncertainty still exists with regard to the use of this treatment option in chronic kidney disease as well as clinical settings related to chronic kidney disease, where vitamin D supplementation may be an appropriate therapeutic choice. Two consecutive meetings were held in Florence in July and November 2016 comprising six experts in kidney disease (N = 3) and bone mineral metabolism (N = 3) to discuss a range of unresolved issues related to the use of cholecalciferol in chronic kidney disease. The panel focused on the following six key areas where issues relating to the use of oral vitamin D remain controversial: (1) vitamin D and parathyroid hormone levels in the general population, (2) cholecalciferol in chronic kidney disease, (3) vitamin D in cardiovascular disease, (4) vitamin D and renal bone disease, (5) vitamin D in rheumatological diseases affecting the kidney, (6) vitamin D and kidney transplantation.

High glucose/lysophosphatidylcholine levels stimulate extracellular matrix deposition in diabetic nephropathy via platelet‑activating factor receptor

Platelet-activating factor (PAF), protein kinase C (PKC)βI, transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 and aberrant extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition have been associated with diabetic nephropathy (DN). However, the mechanistic basis underlying this association remains to be elucidated. The present study investigated the association among the aforementioned factors in a DN model consisting of human mesangial cells (HMCs) exposed to high glucose (HG) and lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) treatments. HMCs were divided into the following treatment groups: Control; PAF; PAF+PKCβI inhibitor LY333531; HG + LPC; PAF + HG + LPC; and PAF + HG + LPC + LY333531. Cells were cultured for 24 h, and PKCβI and TGF-β1 expression was determined using the reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction and western blotting. The expression levels of the ECM-associated molecules collagen IV and fibronectin in the supernatant were detected using ELISA analysis. Subcellular localization of PKCβI was assessed using immunocytochemistry. PKCβI and TGF-β1 expression was increased in the PAF + HG + LPC group compared with the other groups (P<0.05); however, this effect was abolished in the presence of LY333531 (P<0.05). Supernatant fibronectin and collagen IV levels were increased in the PAF + HG + LPC group compared with the others (P<0.05); this was reversed by treatment with LY333531 (P<0.05). In cells treated with PAF, HG and LPC, PKCβI was translocated from the cytosol to the nucleus, an effect which was blocked when PKCβI expression was inhibited (P<0.05). The findings of the present study demonstrated that PAF stimulated ECM deposition in HMCs via activation of the PKC-TGF-β1 axis in a DN model.

Epidemiology of low-proteinuric chronic kidney disease in renal clinics

CKD patients with low-grade proteinuria (LP) are common in nephrology clinics. However, prevalence, characteristics, and the competing risks of ESRD and death as the specific determinants, are still unknown. We analyzed epidemiological features of LP status in a prospective cohort of 2,340 patients with CKD stage III-V referred from ≥6 months in 40 nephrology clinics in Italy. LP status was defined as proteinuria <0.5 g/24h according to current KDIGO guidelines. Patients with higher proteinuria constituted the control group (CON). LP patients were 54.5% of the whole cohort. As compared to CON, LP were older (70.0±12.1 vs 65.4±14.1 y), and less likely to be male (55.8 vs 62.0%) and diabetic (27.6 vs 34.1%), and had hypertension as the most common cause of CKD (39.8%). They had higher eGFR (34.8±13.5 vs 26.8±13.2 mL/min/1.73m²) and hemoglobin (12.7±1.7 vs 12.3±1.7 g/dL), while systolic blood pressure (137±18 vs 140±18 mmHg) and serum phosphorus (3.7±0.8 vs 3.9±0.8 mg/dL) were lower [P<0.001 for all comparisons]. Over a median follow-up of 48 months, an inverse relative risk of ESRD and death was observed in LP (death>>ESRD; P = 0.002) versus CON (ESRD>>death; P<0.0001). Modifiable risk factors were also different in LP, with smoking, lower hemoglobin, and proteinuria being associated with higher mortality risk while lower BMI and higher phosphorus predicting ESRD at multivariable Cox analyses [P<0.05 for all]. Therefore, in nephrology clinics, LP patients are the majority and show distinctive basal features. More important, they are more exposed to death than ESRD and do present specific modifiable determinants of either outcome; indeed, in LP, while smoking plays a role for mortality, lower BMI and higher phosphorus levels -even if in the normal range- are predictors of ESRD. These data support the need to further study the low proteinuric CKD population to guide management.

Controversial issues in CKD clinical practice: position statement of the CKD-treatment working group of the Italian Society of Nephrology

This position paper of the study group "Conservative treatment of Chronic Kidney Disease-CKD" of the Italian Society of Nephrology addresses major practical, unresolved, issues related to the conservative treatment of chronic renal disease. Specifically, controversial topics from everyday clinical nephrology practice which cannot find a clear, definitive answer in the current literature or in nephrology guidelines are discussed. The paper reports the point of view of the study group. Concise and practical advice is given on several common issues: renal biopsy in diabetes; dual blockade of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS); management of iron deficiency; low protein diet; dietary salt intake; bicarbonate supplementation; treatment of obesity; the choice of conservative therapy vs. dialysis. For each topic synthetic statements, guideline-style, are reported.

Risk factors for CKD progression in Japanese patients: findings from the Chronic Kidney Disease Japan Cohort (CKD-JAC) study

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) eventually progresses to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, risk factors associated with CKD progression have not been well characterized in Japanese patients with CKD who are less affected with coronary disease than Westerners.

METHODS

A large-scale, multicenter, prospective, cohort study was conducted in patients with CKD and under nephrology care, who met the eligibility criteria [Japanese; age 20-75 years; and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR): 10-59 mL/min/1.73 m²]. The primary endpoint was a composite of time to a 50 % decline in eGFR from baseline or time to the initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT). The secondary endpoints were the rate of decline in eGFR from baseline, time to a 50 % decline in eGFR from baseline, time to the initiation of RRT, and time to doubling of serum creatinine (Cre) concentration.

RESULTS

2966 patients (female, 38.9 %; age, 60. 3 ± 11.6 years) were enrolled. The incidence of the primary endpoint increased significantly (P < 0.0001) in concert with CKD stage at baseline. The multivariate Cox proportional hazards models revealed that elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.203, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.099-1.318)] and increased albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR ≥ 1000 mg/g Cre; HR: 4.523; 95 % CI 3.098-6.604) at baseline were significantly associated (P < 0.0001, respectively) with the primary endpoint.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated SBP and increased UACR were risk factors that were significantly associated with CKD progression to ESRD in Japanese patients under nephrology care. UMIN clinical trial registry number: UMIN000020038.

Stage 5-CKD under nephrology care: to dialyze or not to dialyze, that is the question

Appropriate timing of starting chronic dialysis in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) under nephrology care still is undefined. We systematically reviewed the most recent studies that have compared outcomes of stage 5-CKD under conservative versus substitutive treatment. Eleven studies, most in elderly patients, were identified. Results indicate no advantage of dialysis over conservative management in terms of survival, hospitalization or quality of life. This information is integrated with a case report on a middle-aged CKD patient followed in our clinic who has remained for 15 years in stage 5 despite severe disease. The patient is a diabetic woman who underwent right nephrectomy in 1994 because of renal tuberculosis. In 1999, she commenced regular nephrology care in our clinic and, since 2000, when she was 53 years old, her estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) has been ≤15 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Over the last decade, despite, several episodes of acute kidney injury and placement of permanent percutaneous nephrostomy in 2001, renal function has remained remarkably stable, though severely impaired (eGFR 7.7-5.6 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). Our systematic analysis of the literature and this case report highlight the need for further studies, not limited exclusively to elderly patients, to verify the efficacy of non-dialysis treatment in stage 5-CKD patients. Meanwhile, nephrologists may consider that their intervention can safely prolong for several years the dialysis-free condition in ESRD independently of age.