Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios

Seasonal change and influence of environmental variables on host-seeking activity of the biting midge Culicoides sonorensis at a southern California dairy, USA

BACKGROUND

As a primary vector of bluetongue virus (BTV) in the US, seasonal abundance and diel flight activity of Culicoides sonorensis has been documented, but few studies have examined how time of host-seeking activity is impacted by environmental factors. This knowledge is essential for interpreting surveillance data and modeling pathogen transmission risk.

METHODS

The diel host-seeking activity of C. sonorensis was studied on a California dairy over 3 years using a time-segregated trap baited with CO2. The relationship between environmental variables and diel host-seeking activity (start, peak, and duration of activity) of C. sonorensis was evaluated using multiple linear regression. Fisher's exact test and paired-sample z-test were used to evaluate the seasonal difference and parity difference on diel host-seeking activity.

RESULTS

Host-seeking by C. sonorensis began and reached an activity peak before sunset at a higher frequency during colder months relative to warmer months. The time that host-seeking activity occurred was associated low and high daily temperature as well as wind speed at sunset. Colder temperatures and a greater diurnal temperature range were associated with an earlier peak in host-seeking. Higher wind speeds at sunset were associated with a delayed peak in host-seeking and a shortened duration of host-seeking. Parous midges reached peak host-seeking activity slightly later than nulliparous midges, possibly because of the need for oviposition by gravid females before returning to host-seeking.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that during colder months C. sonorensis initiates host-seeking and reaches peak host-seeking activity earlier relative to sunset, often even before sunset, compared to warmer months. Therefore, the commonly used UV light-baited traps are ineffective for midge surveillance before sunset. Based on this study, surveillance methods that do not rely on light trapping would provide a more accurate estimate of host-biting risk across seasons. The association of environmental factors to host-seeking shown in this study can be used to improve modeling or prediction of host-seeking activity. This study identified diurnal temperature range as associated with host-seeking activity, suggesting that Culicoides may respond to a rapidly decreasing temperature by shifting to an earlier host-seeking time, though this association needs further study.

Habitat fragmentation matters more than habitat loss: The case of host-parasite interactions

While ecologists agree that habitat loss has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity it is still very much a matter of debate whether habitat fragmentation has a lesser effect and whether this effect is positive or negative for biodiversity. Here, we assess the relative influence of tropical forest loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of vector-borne blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus in six forest bird species. We also determine whether habitat loss and fragmentation are associated with a rise or fall in prevalence. We sample more than 4000 individual birds from 58 forest sites in Guadeloupe and Martinique. Considering 34 host-parasite combinations independently and a fine characterization of the amount and spatial configuration of habitat, we use partial least square regressions to disentangle the relative effects of forest loss, forest fragmentation, landscape heterogeneity, and local weather conditions on spatial variability of parasite prevalence. Then we test for the magnitude and the sign of the effect of each environmental descriptor. Strikingly, we show that forest fragmentation explains twice as much of the variance in prevalence as habitat loss or landscape heterogeneity. In addition, habitat fragmentation leads to an overall rise in prevalence in Guadeloupe, but its effect is variable in Martinique. Both habitat loss and landscape heterogeneity exhibit taxon-specific effects. Our results suggest that habitat loss and fragmentation may have contrasting effects between tropical and temperate regions and that inter-specific interactions may not respond in the same way as more commonly used biodiversity metrics such as abundance and diversity.

Relationship Between Weather and Changes in Annual and Seasonal Abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta

Factors influencing annual and seasonal abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth and Jones) (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) were examined at 10 sites in southern Alberta using negative binomial regression. Annual abundance varied among locations with greatest abundance in a narrow geographic band between -112.17 and -112.64°W longitude and 49.32 and 50.17°N latitude. Sites were grouped depending on whether abundance was continuous and high; discontinuous and low; or sporadic and low without much loss of information. Maximum annual abundance declined with spring precipitation, increased with spring temperature, and was unrelated to spring relative humidity, suggesting that abundance is highest during years with early drought conditions. Seasonal abundance was associated with the same factors but was further influenced by temperature and relative humidity during the sample intervals. Lagged effects were apparent, suggesting abundance increased with warmer temperatures over a six-week period, and increased when relative humidity declined closer to the sampling period. Predicted values were slightly biased and tended to overestimate observed data, but this could be adjusted using calibration curves. The model can also be used to predict presence/absence of C. sonorensis and will be useful for developing risk assessments.

Predicting the potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) cedecei in Florida and the Caribbean using ecological niche models

Everglades virus (EVEV), an enzootic subtype of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, along with its endemic mosquito vector, Culex cedecei, is known only from South Florida. The taxonomy of Cx. cedecei is complex and was once synonymous with Culex opisthopus and Culex taeniopus. We modeled potential distribution of Cx. cedecei in Florida and the Caribbean using an ecological niche model and compared this distribution to the recorded distribution of EVEV in Florida as well as historical records of Cx. opisthopus/Cx. taeniopus. We used recent collections and occurrence data from scientific publications and temperature/precipitation variables and vegetation greenness values to calibrate models. We found mean annual temperature contributed the greatest to model performance. Everglades virus in humans and wildlife corresponded with areas predicted suitable for Cx. cedecei in Florida but not with incidence of antibodies reported in dogs. Most records of Cx. opisthopus/Cx. taeniopus in the Caribbean did not correspond to areas predicted suitable for Cx. cedecei, which may be due to mean annual temperature values in the Caribbean exceeding values within the calibration region, imposing model constraints. Results indicated that this model may adequately predict the distributions of Cx. cedecei within Florida but cannot predict areas suitable in the Caribbean.

Spatial epidemiology of hemorrhagic disease in Illinois wild white-tailed deer

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) and bluetongue (BT) are vector-borne viral diseases that affect wild and domestic ruminants. Clinical signs of EHD and BT are similar; thus, the syndrome is referred to as hemorrhagic disease (HD). Syndromic surveillance and virus detection in North America reveal a northern expansion of HD. High mortalities at northern latitudes suggest recent incursions of HD viruses into northern geographic areas. We evaluated the occurrence of HD in wild Illinois white-tailed deer from 1982 to 2019. Our retrospective space-time analysis identified high-rate clusters of HD cases from 2006 to 2019. The pattern of northward expansion indicates changes in virus-host-vector interactions. Serological evidence from harvested deer revealed prior infection with BTV. However, BTV was not detected from virus isolation in dead deer sampled during outbreaks. Our findings suggest the value of capturing the precise geographic location of outbreaks, the importance of virus isolation to confirm the cause of an outbreak, and the importance of expanding HD surveillance to hunter-harvested wild white-tailed deer. Similarly, it assists in predicting future outbreaks, allowing for targeted disease and vector surveillance, helping wildlife agencies communicate with the public the cause of mortality events and viral hemorrhagic disease outcomes at local and regional scales.

Effect of Constant Temperatures on Culicoides sonorensis Midge Physiology and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Infection

Simple Summary

Culicoides biting midges are nuisance pests of livestock and well-known vectors of veterinary arboviruses, such as vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Female midges ingest viruses when feeding on blood to obtain protein for egg-laying. After ingesting a VSV-infected blood meal, the environmental temperature of the resting location mediates the rates at which blood is digested, eggs are laid, and virus particles are replicated inside the midge. VSV transmission will occur if the timing of virus amplification aligns with the next feeding–egg-laying cycle. We evaluated the impact of constant environmental temperatures on midge physiology (lifespan and reproduction), vector competence for VSV (infection and dissemination), and thermal resting preference. Our results indicate that after ingesting a blood meal, most midges prefer to rest in areas that fall within their preferred physiological range regardless of the temperatures at which they were being maintained. These preferred temperatures maximized their survival, the number of egg-laying cycles, and the likelihood of VSV transmission. Our temperature approach shows that in the Culicoides–VSV system, the preferred resting temperature selected by blood-fed midges is beneficial for both insect and virus transmission.

Abstract

Culicoides midges play an important role in vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) transmission to US livestock. After VSV-blood feeding, blood digestion followed by oviposition occurs while ingested virus particles replicate and disseminate to salivary glands for transmission during subsequent blood-feeding events. Changes to environmental temperature may alter the feeding–oviposition–refeeding cycles, midge survival, VSV infection, and overall vector capacity. However, the heterothermic midge may respond rapidly to environmental changes by adjusting their thermal behavior to resting in areas closer to their physiological range. Here we investigated the effects of four constant environmental temperatures (20, 25, 30, and 35 °C) on C. sonorensis survival, oviposition, and VSV infection, as well as resting thermal preferences after blood-feeding. We found that most midges preferred to rest in areas at 25–30 °C. These two constant temperatures (25 and 30 °C) allowed an intermediate fitness performance, with a 66% survival probability by day 10 and oviposition cycles occurring every 2–3 days. Additionally, VSV infection rates in bodies and heads with salivary glands were higher than in midges held at 20 °C and 35 °C. Our results provide insight into the implications of temperature on VSV–Culicoides interactions and confirm that the range of temperature preferred by midges can benefit both the vector and the arbovirus.

Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.

Landscape Seroprevalence of Three Hemorrhagic Disease-Causing Viruses in a Wild Cervid

Disease plays a major role in shaping wildlife populations worldwide, and changes in landscape conditions can significantly influence risk of pathogen exposure, a threat to vulnerable wild species. Three viruses that cause hemorrhagic disease affect cervid populations in the USA (Odocoileus hemionus adenovirus, bluetongue virus, and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus), but little is known of their distribution and prevalence in wild populations. We explored the distribution and co-occurrence of seroprevalence of these three pathogens in southern mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus fuliginatus), a subspecies of conservation concern and a harvested species native to southern California, to evaluate the distribution of exposure to these pathogens relative to landscape attributes. We found that habitat type, level of development, and proximity to livestock may affect hemorrhagic disease seroprevalence in southern mule deer. Continued monitoring of hemorrhagic disease-causing viruses in areas where deer are in proximity to cattle and human development is needed to better understand the implications of future outbreaks in wild populations and to identify opportunities to mitigate disease impacts in southern mule deer and other cervid species.

Identification, Distribution, and Habitat Suitability Models of Ixodid Tick Species in Cattle in Eastern Bhutan

Tick infestation is the most reported parasitological problem in cattle in Bhutan. In May and June 2019, we collected ticks from 240 cattle in two districts of Eastern Bhutan. Tick presence, diversity, and infestation prevalence were examined by morphological identification of 3600 live adult ticks. The relationships between cattle, geographic factors, and infestation prevalence were assessed using logistic regression analyses. Habitat suitability for the tick species identified was determined using MaxEnt. Four genera and six species of ticks were found. These were Rhipicephalus microplus (Canestrini) (70.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 68.7-71.7)), Rhipicephalus haemaphysaloides Supino (18.8% (95% CI: 17.5-20.1)), Haemaphysalis bispinosa Neumann (8.2% (95% CI: 7.3-9.1)), Haemaphysalis spinigera Neumann (2.5% (95% CI: 2-3)), Amblyomma testudinarium Koch (0.19% (95% CI: 0.07-0.4)), and a single unidentified Ixodes sp. Logistic regression indicated that the variables associated with infestation were: longitude and cattle age for R. microplus; latitude for R. haemaphysaloides; and altitude and cattle breed for H. bispinosa and H. spinigera. MaxEnt models showed land cover to be an important predictor for the occurrence of all tick species examined. These findings provide information that can be used to initiate and plan enhanced tick surveillance and subsequent prevention and control programs for ticks and tick-borne diseases in cattle in Bhutan.

Serologic Evidence of Arthropod-Borne Virus Infections in Wild and Captive Ruminants in Ontario, Canada

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are globally widespread, and their transmission cycles typically involve numerous vertebrate species. Serologic testing of animal hosts can provide a routine surveillance approach to monitoring animal disease systems, can provide a surveillance alternative to arthropod testing and human case reports, and may augment knowledge of epizootiology. Wild and captive ruminants represent good candidate sentinels to track geographic distribution and prevalence of select arboviruses. They often are geographically widespread and abundant, inhabit areas shared by humans and domestic animals, and are readily fed on by various hematophagous arthropod vectors. Ontario, Canada, is home to high densities of coexisting humans, livestock, and wild cervids, as well as growing numbers of arthropod vectors because of the effects of climate change. We collected blood samples from 349 livestock (cattle/sheep) and 217 cervids (wild/farmed/zoo) in Ontario (2016-2019) to assess for antibodies to zoonotic and agriculturally important arboviruses. Livestock sera were tested for antibodies to bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). Sera from cervids were tested for antibodies to BTV, EHDV, West Nile virus (WNV), eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), Powassan virus (POWV), and heartland virus (HRTV). Fifteen (9.0%) cattle were seropositive for EHDV-serotype 2. Nine (4.2%) cervids were seropositive for arboviruses; three confirmed as WNV, three as EEEV, and one as POWV. All animals were seronegative for BTV and HRTV. These results reveal low seroprevalence of important agricultural, wildlife, and zoonotic pathogens and underline the need for continued surveillance in this and other regions in the face of changing environmental conditions.

Comparison of Habitat Suitability Models for Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann in North America to Determine Its Potential Geographic Range

Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, 1901 is a vector of many pathogens of public and veterinary health importance in its native range in East Asia and introduced range in Oceania. In North America, this tick was first detected in New Jersey in 2017. Currently, this tick has been reported from 15 states of the United States. In this study, we modeled the habitat suitability of H. longicornis using the MaxEnt modeling approach. We separated occurrence records from the published literature from four different geographical regions in the world and developed MaxEnt models using relevant environmental variables to describe the potential habitat suitability of this tick in North America. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed using the U.S. county locations where this tick species has been reported. Our best model predicted that the most suitable North American areas for geographic expansion of H. longicornis are from Arkansas–South Carolina to the south of Quebec–Nova Scotia in the east, and from California to the coast of British Columbia in the west. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are required to gain a better understanding of the role that this tick might play in the transmission of diseases to humans and animals in North America.

Epidemiology and spatial distribution of bluetongue virus in Xinjiang, China

Bluetongue (BT) is a non-contagious disease affecting domestic and wild ruminants. Outbreaks of BT can cause serious economic losses. To investigate the distribution characteristics of bluetongue virus (BTV), two large-scale censuses of BTV prevalence in Xinjiang, China were collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, including global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation, was performed. Risk areas for BTV occurrence in Xinjiang were detected using the presence-only maximum entropy model. The global spatial autocorrelation of BTV distribution in Xinjiang in 2012 showed a random pattern. In contrast, the spatial distribution of BTV from 2014 to 2015 was significantly clustered. The hotspot areas for BTV infection included Balikun County (p < 0.05), Yiwu County (p < 0.05) and Hami City (p < 0.05) in 2012. These three regions were also hotspot areas during 2014 and 2015. Sheep distribution (25.6% contribution), precipitation seasonality (22.1% contribution) and mean diurnal range (16.2% contribution) were identified as the most important predictors for BTV occurrence in Xinjiang. This study demonstrated the presence of high-risk areas for BTV infection in Xinjiang, which can serve as a tool to aid in the development of preventative countermeasures of BT outbreaks.

Ecological niche modeling the potential geographic distribution of four Culicoides species of veterinary significance in Florida, USA

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) is a viral arthropod-borne disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants, caused by infection with epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV). EHDV is transmitted to vertebrate animal hosts by biting midges in the genus Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones is the only confirmed vector of EHDV in the United States but is considered rare in Florida and not sufficiently abundant to support EHDV transmission. This study used ecological niche modeling to map the potential geographical distributions and associated ecological variable space of four Culicoides species suspected of transmitting EHDV in Florida, including Culicoides insignis Lutz, Culicoides stellifer (Coquillett), Culicoides debilipalpis Hoffman and Culicoides venustus Lutz. Models were developed with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production in DesktopGARP v1.1.3 using species occurrence data from field sampling along with environmental variables from WorldClim and Trypanosomiasis and Land use in Africa. For three Culicoides species (C. insignis, C. stellifer and C. debilipalpis) 96-98% of the presence points were predicted across the Florida landscape (63.8% - 72.5%). For C. venustus, models predicted 98.00% of presence points across 27.4% of Florida. Geographic variations were detected between species. Culicoides insignis was predicted to be restricted to peninsular Florida, and in contrast, C. venustus was predicted to be primarily in north Florida and the panhandle region. Culicoides stellifer and C. debilipalpis were predicted nearly statewide. Environmental conditions also differed by species, with some species' ranges predicted by more narrow ranges of variables than others. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was a major predictor of C. venustus and C. insignis presence. For C. stellifer, Land Surface Temperature, Middle Infrared were the most limiting predictors of presence. The limiting variables for C. debilipalpis were NDVI Bi-Annual Amplitude and NDVI Annual Amplitude at 22.5% and 28.1%, respectively. The model outputs, including maps and environmental variable range predictions generated from these experiments provide an important first pass at predicting species of veterinary importance in Florida. Because EHDV cannot exist in the environment without the vector, model outputs can be used to estimate the potential risk of disease for animal hosts across Florida. Results also provide distribution and habitat information useful for integrated pest management practices.

Evaluating the Addition of CO2 to Black Light Traps for Sampling Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta

We examined the effect of augmenting black light trap with CO2 at two release rates for monitoring and surveillance of Culicoides at northern latitudes. Species composition was highly correlated among black light (BL) traps with no CO2 (BL0 traps) and traps augmented with 300 and 1000 ml/min CO2 (BL300 and BL1000 traps, respectively); however, traps augmented with CO2 captured one to three more rare species than BL0 traps and can detect rare species that might be missed if BL0 traps were used. Addition of CO2 increased the number of individuals captured from 1.4 to 38.5-fold for BL300 traps and from 1.5 to 153.5-fold for BL1000 traps. This advantage may be lost in areas with low abundance as might be expected at the limits of species. The daily probability of detecting a species was greater for traps augmented with CO2, but this can be compensated for by operating BL0 traps for sufficient time. The association between numbers captured by BL0 and BL300 and BL1000 traps also suggests that BL0 traps may provide useful measures of relative abundance for Culicoides sonorensis, Culicoides davisi, and Culicoides riethi, again providing the BL0 traps are left to operate for some period. Measurements of diel activity were influenced by trap type only for a single species and were primarily determined by solar radiation, temperature, and windspeed. Overall, the use of BL0 only traps for widescale surveys is supported, especially given their convenience.

Mosquito-Borne Diseases: Advances in Modelling Climate-Change Impacts

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.

Dynamics of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus infection within the vector, Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

Culicoides sonorensis biting midges are confirmed vectors of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), which causes mortality in white-tailed deer and ruminant populations. Currently, of the seven EHDV serotypes, only 1, 2, and 6 are detected in the USA, and very few studies have focused on the infection time course of these serotypes within the midge. The objective of this current research was to characterize EHDV-2 infection within the midge by measuring infection prevalence, virus dissemination, and viral load over the course of infection. Midges were fed a blood meal containing 106.9 PFU/ml EHDV-2, collected every 12 h from 0-2 days post feeding (dpf) and daily from 3-10 dpf, and cohorts of 20 C. sonorensis were processed using techniques that assessed EHDV infection and dissemination. Cytopathic effect assays and quantitative (q)PCR were used to determine infection prevalence, revealing a 50% infection rate by 10 dpf using both methods. Using immunohistochemistry, EHDV-2 infection was detectable at 5 dpf, and shown to disseminate from the midgut to other tissues, including fat body, eyes, and salivary glands by 5 dpf. Stain intensity increased from 5-8 dpf, indicating replication of EHDV-2 in secondary infection sites after dissemination. This finding is also supported by trends in viral load over time as determined by plaque assays and qPCR. An increase in titer between 4-5 dpf correlated with viral replication in the midgut as seen with staining at day 5, while the subsequent gradual increase in viral load from 8-10 dpf suggested viral replication in midges with disseminated infection. Overall, the data presented herein suggest that EHDV-2 disseminates via the hemolymph to secondary infection sites throughout the midge and demonstrate a high potential for transmission at five days at 25°C after an infective blood-meal.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors (Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.

First Records of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), a Known Vector of Bluetongue Virus, in Southern Ontario

Ceratopogonidae (Diptera) were collected on sheep farms in southern Ontario to establish whether Culicoides spp. pose a threat to the livestock industry. Specimens were collected in modified CO2-baited Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps, returned to the laboratory, freeze-killed, and identified to species under a microscope. In addition to Culicoides variipennis (Coquillet), we found that Culicoides sonorensis Wirth & Jones occurred on a number of farms over a 2-yr period. These records represent a significant departure from C. sonorensis' previously known geographical distribution. We present spatial and temporal distribution data for both species, with an emphasis on C. sonorensis. DNA sequence information is presented so that researchers lacking the necessary taxonomic skills can determine whether C. sonorensis is present in their collections. To differentiate C. sonorensis from C. variipennis, taxonomically reliable and informative traits were found in EF1α and, to a lesser extent, in ITS1, whereas the universal barcode region of cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) was unsuitable.

Evolutionary ecology of virus emergence

The cross-species transmission of viruses into new host populations, termed virus emergence, is a significant issue in public health, agriculture, wildlife management, and related fields. Virus emergence requires overlap between host populations, alterations in virus genetics to permit infection of new hosts, and adaptation to novel hosts such that between-host transmission is sustainable, all of which are the purview of the fields of ecology and evolution. A firm understanding of the ecology of viruses and how they evolve is required for understanding how and why viruses emerge. In this paper, I address the evolutionary mechanisms of virus emergence and how they relate to virus ecology. I argue that, while virus acquisition of the ability to infect new hosts is not difficult, limited evolutionary trajectories to sustained virus between-host transmission and the combined effects of mutational meltdown, bottlenecking, demographic stochasticity, density dependence, and genetic erosion in ecological sinks limit most emergence events to dead-end spillover infections. Despite the relative rarity of pandemic emerging viruses, the potential of viruses to search evolutionary space and find means to spread epidemically and the consequences of pandemic viruses that do emerge necessitate sustained attention to virus research, surveillance, prophylaxis, and treatment.

A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle

The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTV-endemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV's basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission.

Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of Bluetongue Virus

The geographic distribution of arboviruses has received considerable attention after several dramatic emergence events around the world. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is classified among category “A” diseases notifiable to the World Organization of Animal Health (OIE), and is transmitted among ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides. Here, we developed a comprehensive occurrence data set to map the current distribution, estimate the ecological niche, and explore the future potential distribution of BTV globally using ecological niche modeling and based on diverse future climate scenarios from general circulation models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The broad ecological niche and potential geographic distribution of BTV under present-day conditions reflected the disease’s current distribution across the world in tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions. All model predictions were significantly better than random expectations. As a further evaluation of model robustness, we compared our model predictions to 331 independent records from most recent outbreaks from the Food and Agriculture Organization Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases Information System (EMPRES-i); all were successfully anticipated by the BTV model. Finally, we tested ecological niche similarity among possible vectors and BTV, and could not reject hypotheses of niche similarity. Under future-climate conditions, the potential distribution of BTV was predicted to broaden, especially in central Africa, United States, and western Russia.