Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

Modeling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on ischemic heart disease and stroke in Brazil

BACKGROUND

A high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with the risk of several chronic diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. This study aimed to model the impact of a 20% tax on all SSBs for IHD and stroke among Brazilian adults.

METHODS

This was an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20% tax on SSBs and projected the incidence, prevalence and mortality of IHD and stroke over a 20-year period (2019-39). Using data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs, and relative risk, we estimated changes in IHD and stroke burden.

RESULTS

Our model predicts that a 20% SSB tax may reduce new cases of IHD by ~13%, especially among women, and avert ~8% of the deaths attributable to IHD over 20 years. These results represent a decrease of 19 543 new cases and 8466 and 7274 fewer deaths in the period for men and women, respectively. Estimates of reduction in incidence, prevalence and deaths from stroke were not significant over 20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Even under conservative assumptions, our study found that a small reduction in SSB consumption led to a substantial decrease in IHD incidence and mortality in Brazil.

Feasibility of prevention of type 2 diabetes in low- and middle-income countries

Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of global mortality and morbidity. Nearly 80% of individuals with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where nearly half of those with the condition remain undiagnosed. The majority of known cases have sub-optimal clinical outcomes. Moreover, large populations with impaired glucose tolerance and/or impaired fasting glucose contribute to the rapid increase in type 2 diabetes. Globally, priority should be given to limit the population with diabetes, especially in LMICs, alongside actions to optimise the care of people diagnosed with diabetes. Primary prevention studies in LMICs have generated evidence to show the efficacy and scalability of strategies to fully prevent or delay the development of diabetes in high-risk groups. However, these are mainly limited to certain countries in Asia, particularly China and India. The studies have indicated that prevention policies are effective in populations with a high risk of type 2 diabetes, and they also have long-term benefits, not only for the risk of type 2 diabetes but also for the risk of associated metabolic disorders, such as CVDs. For the effective conduct of national programmes, innovative mechanisms must be implemented, such as the use of information technology, joint efforts of multiple teams implementing similar programmes, and involvement of governmental and non-governmental partnerships. Continuous monitoring and long-term studies are required to assess the utility of these programmes. The effectiveness of such programmes in LMICs has not been proven over the longer term, except in China. Despite the available evidence, the feasibility of prevention strategies for type 2 diabetes in LMICs at population level remains an enigma. There remain challenges in the form of cultural, societal and economic constraints; insufficient infrastructure and healthcare capacity; and the non-fully elucidated natural history and determinants of type 2 diabetes in LMICs.

Area-level deprivation and individual-level socioeconomic correlates of the diabetes care cascade among black south africans in uMgungundlovu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

South Africa is experiencing a rapidly growing diabetes epidemic that threatens its healthcare system. Research on the determinants of diabetes in South Africa receives considerable attention due to the lifestyle changes accompanying South Africa's rapid urbanization since the fall of Apartheid. However, few studies have investigated how segments of the Black South African population, who continue to endure Apartheid's institutional discriminatory legacy, experience this transition. This paper explores the association between individual and area-level socioeconomic status and diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control within a sample of Black South Africans aged 45 years or older in three municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal. Cross-sectional data were collected on 3,685 participants from February 2017 to February 2018. Individual-level socioeconomic status was assessed with employment status and educational attainment. Area-level deprivation was measured using the most recent South African Multidimensional Poverty Index scores. Covariates included age, sex, BMI, and hypertension diagnosis. The prevalence of diabetes was 23% (n = 830). Of those, 769 were aware of their diagnosis, 629 were receiving treatment, and 404 had their diabetes controlled. Compared to those with no formal education, Black South Africans with some high school education had increased diabetes prevalence, and those who had completed high school had lower prevalence of treatment receipt. Employment status was negatively associated with diabetes prevalence. Black South Africans living in more deprived wards had lower diabetes prevalence, and those residing in wards that became more deprived from 2001 to 2011 had a higher prevalence diabetes, as well as diabetic control. Results from this study can assist policymakers and practitioners in identifying modifiable risk factors for diabetes among Black South Africans to intervene on. Potential community-based interventions include those focused on patient empowerment and linkages to care. Such interventions should act in concert with policy changes, such as expanding the existing sugar-sweetened beverage tax.

Economic evaluations of non-communicable diseases conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa: a critical review of data sources

BACKGROUND

Policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenging decisions regarding the allocation of health resources. Economic evaluations can help decision makers to determine which health interventions should be funded and or included in their benefits package. A major problem is whether the evaluations incorporated data from sources that are reliable and relevant to the country of interest. We aimed to review the quality of the data sources used in all published economic evaluations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes in SSA.

METHODS

We systematically searched selected databases for all published economic evaluations for CVD and diabetes in SSA. We modified a hierarchy of data sources and used a reference case to measure the adherence to reporting and methodological characteristics, and descriptively analysed author statements.

RESULTS

From 7,297 articles retrieved from the search, we selected 35 for study inclusion. Most were modelled evaluations and almost all focused on pharmacological interventions. The studies adhered to the reporting standards but were less adherent to the methodological standards. The quality of data sources varied. The quality level of evidence in the data domains of resource use and costs were generally considered of high quality, with studies often sourcing information from reliable databases within the same jurisdiction. The authors of most studies referred to data sources in the discussion section of the publications highlighting the challenges of obtaining good quality and locally relevant data.

CONCLUSIONS

The data sources in some domains are considered high quality but there remains a need to make substantial improvements in the methodological adherence and overall quality of data sources to provide evidence that is sufficiently robust to support decision making in SSA within the context of UHC and health benefits plans. Many SSA governments will need to strengthen and build their capacity to conduct economic evaluations of interventions and health technology assessment for improved priority setting. This capacity building includes enhancing local infrastructures for routine data production and management. If many of the policy makers are using economic evaluations to guide resource allocation, it is imperative that the evidence used is of the feasibly highest quality.

The Nutrition Transition and the Double Burden of Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan African Countries: How Do These Countries Compare with the Recommended LANCET COMMISSION Global Diet?

BACKGROUND

Over the last two decades, many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have undergone dietary and nutrition transitions fuelled by rapid urbanisation, economic development, and globalisation. The aim of the current study was to examine outcomes of the nutrition transition and the epidemiologic transition in SSA countries in terms of food intake, health, and socioeconomic and development factors.

METHODS

Food balance sheet data-specifically, per capita energy intake per day and per capita gram intake per day-from the CountrySTAT framework of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) were analysed for major food commodities. Additionally, selected health and development indicators supplied by UNICEF, the WHO and the World Bank were analysed.

RESULTS

Four dietary patterns emerged. The diet of the southern African/island cluster (South Africa, Mauritius, Eswatini, Namibia, Cabo Verde, and the outlier Seychelles) resembles a Westernised diet, with median values high on sugar/sweeteners, alcohol, meat, animal fats, eggs, and dairy. On the other hand, the diet of countries in the other three clusters appears to be more traditional, with countries in the desert/semi-arid cluster consuming more cereals and pulses/tree nuts, countries in the tropical coastal cluster consuming more fish and vegetable oils, and countries in the equatorial cluster consuming more starchy roots and fruit and vegetables. The resulting median values of health indicators also indicate a higher prevalence of non-communicable diseases in the southern African/island cluster, whereas stunting and anaemia are higher in the other three clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

SSA countries are in different stages of the nutrition transition. By superimposing clusters generated using macronutrient intake values on a map of the climatic regions in Africa, one can clearly see the importance of climate on the availability of food and food intake patterns. Climate change presents a great challenge to healthy eating, as the link between climate regions and diets is illustrated.

Simulation models of sugary drink policies: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Simulation modeling methods are an increasingly common tool for projecting the potential health effects of policies to decrease sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) intake. However, it remains unknown which SSB policies are understudied and how simulation modeling methods could be improved. To inform next steps, we conducted a scoping review to characterize the (1) policies considered and (2) major characteristics of SSB simulation models.

METHODS

We systematically searched 7 electronic databases in 2020, updated in 2021. Two investigators independently screened articles to identify peer-reviewed research using simulation modeling to project the impact of SSB policies on health outcomes. One investigator extracted information about policies considered and key characteristics of models from the full text of included articles. Data were analyzed in 2021-22.

RESULTS

Sixty-one articles were included. Of these, 50 simulated at least one tax policy, most often an ad valorem tax (e.g., 20% tax, n = 25) or volumetric tax (e.g., 1 cent-per-fluid-ounce tax, n = 23). Non-tax policies examined included bans on SSB purchases (n = 5), mandatory reformulation (n = 3), warning labels (n = 2), and portion size policies (n = 2). Policies were typically modeled in populations accounting for age and gender or sex attributes. Most studies focused on weight-related outcomes (n = 54), used cohort, lifetable, or microsimulation modeling methods (n = 34), conducted sensitivity or uncertainty analyses (n = 56), and included supplementary materials (n = 54). Few studies included stakeholders at any point in their process (n = 9) or provided replication code/data (n = 8).

DISCUSSION

Most simulation modeling of SSB policies has focused on tax policies and has been limited in its exploration of heterogenous impacts across population groups. Future research would benefit from refined policy and implementation scenario specifications, thorough assessments of the equity impacts of policies using established methods, and standardized reporting to improve transparency and consistency.

Impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on the burden of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: A modeling study

AIM

To model the impact of a 20 % tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on the disease burden of T2DM among Brazilian adults.

METHODS

This is an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20 % tax on SSB and projected the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of T2DM over a 20-year period (2019 to 2039). Using recent national data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs and diabetes relative risk we estimated changes on T2DM burden.

RESULTS

With a 20 % tax on SSBs, after 10 years, we estimated a reduction of 37,303 new cases of T2DM for men and 56,757 for women; 184,129 prevalent cases for men and 219,236 for women; and 5,386 and 6,075 deaths for men and women, respectively. After 20 years, 8.6 % and 12.4 % new cases of T2DM will have been prevented, 4.0 % and 5.5 % prevalent cases, and 13.7 % and 12.7 % deaths among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB taxes have the potential to reduce the burden of and deaths attributable to T2DM. Our results show that a fiscal policy may significantly impact strategic plans to tackle noncommunicable diseases.

Effects of public policies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review of global literature

OBJECTIVES

Given the growing interest worldwide in applying public policies to improve human health, we undertook a systematic review of studies investigating whether public policies targeting unhealthy products could reduce cardiovascular diseases.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was a systematic review of the literature.

METHODS

We searched research studies published in 2000-2020 from major databases, including MEDLINE and Embase. We followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and narratively synthesized the studies based on vote counting and direction of the intervention effect.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight studies, mostly from high-income countries, met the inclusion criteria. Most studies were on public policies targeting sugar-sweetened beverages and tobacco, followed by alcohol, sugar, salt, and junk foods. Overall, many reported that several fiscal, regulatory, and educational policies generated beneficial effects of reducing the diseases. Those studies that reported no or limited effects highlighted several sociodemographic and health risk characteristics and design and implementation aspects of the policy interventions as factors limiting the policy effects; most of these are modifiable with appropriate policy interventions. For instance, low magnitude of tax, substitution with other unhealthy products, firms' competitive response strategies, pre-existence of smoking bans, incremental enactment of smoking regulations, degree of enforcement, and various sociocultural factors minimized the effects of the policies.

CONCLUSION

The literature supports a growing consensus on the beneficial effects of public policy for improving human health. The design and implementation of public policies must address various impeding factors and incorporate appropriate remedial measures. Further research is needed from low- and middle-income countries and on whether and how multiple policy instruments work in tandem.

The Cost Effectiveness of Taxation of Sugary Foods and Beverages: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations

BACKGROUND

With increasing concerns about the health consequences and economic burden of excess sugar consumption, a sugar tax is increasingly considered an effective policy to curb sugar consumption. However, little is known about the cost effectiveness of sugar taxes. To inform policy decision makers, we systematically reviewed and analyzed the evidence regarding the cost effectiveness of sugar taxation.

METHODS

We systematically searched six databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, EconLit, and Google Scholar) to identify relevant journal articles. Two reviewers independently scanned and selected all retrieved studies. Only studies that evaluated sugar taxes and applied economic evaluation methods were included. The quality of included studies was assessed using established standards.

RESULTS

Fifteen good-quality studies that originated from six countries (the US, Australia, South Africa, Canada, the UK, and Mexico) were included. These studies revealed that sugar tax improved health-related quality of life. Savings from avoided health care costs and revenue from the sugar taxes (totalling US$87 to US$167,799 million) exceeded intervention costs (US$5 to US$2177 million). Each of the 15 studies concluded that sugar tax constitutes a cost-effective intervention that led to cost savings.

CONCLUSIONS

Sugar tax is a practical and cost-effective policy option to reduce the health and economic burden resulting from excess sugar consumption. The impact of sugar taxes depends on the target population, time horizons, and other parameters. Economic evaluations of taxation of a broader set of sugary products and economic evaluations that combine sugar taxation with other interventions are important to inform further action to curb sugar consumption.

Burden of Diabetes Mellitus in Nepal: An Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Globally, the number of people living with diabetes mellitus (DM) increased by 62% between 1990 and 2019, affecting 463 million people in 2019, and is projected to increase further by 51% by 2045. The increasing burden of DM that requires chronic care could have a considerable cost implication in the health system, particularly in resource constraint settings like Nepal. In this context, this study attempts to present the burden of DM in terms of prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The study is based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, a multinational collaborative research, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations. In the study, the overall prevalence of DM was estimated using DisMod MR-2.1, a Bayesian metaregression model. DALYs were estimated summing years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. There were a total of 1,412,180 prevalent cases of DM, 3,474 deaths and 189,727 DALYs, due to DM in 2019. All-age prevalence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate of DM stood at 4,642.83 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4,178.58-5,137.74) and 5,735.58 (95% UI: 5,168.74-6327.73) cases per 100,000 population, respectively, in 2019. In 2019, 1.8% (95% UI: 1.54, 2.07) of total deaths were from DM, which is a more than three-fold increase from the proportion of deaths attributed in 1990 (0.43%, 95% UI: 0.36, 0.5) with most of these deaths being from DM type 2. In 2019, a total of 189,727 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were attributable to DM of which 105,950 DALYs were among males, and the remaining 83,777 DALYs were among females. Overall, between 1990 and 2019, the DALYs, attributable to Type 1 and 2 DM combined and for Type 2 DM only, have increased gradually across both sexes. However, the DALYs per 100,000 attributable to DM have slightly reduced across both sexes in that time. There is a high burden of DM in Nepal in 2019 with a steep increase in the proportion of deaths attributable to DM in Nepal which could pose a serious challenge to the health system. Primary prevention of DM requires collaborative efforts from multiple sectors. Meanwhile, the current federal structure could be an opportunity for integrated, locally tailored public health and clinical interventions for the prevention of the disease and its consequences.

How should we evaluate sweetened beverage tax policies? A review of worldwide experience

Over 45 jurisdictions globally have implemented sweetened beverage taxes. Researchers and policymakers need to assess whether and how these taxes change beverage demand and supply, their intended and unanticipated health, economic and equity impacts. Lessons from such evaluations can maximise the policies' success and impact on non-communicable disease prevention globally. We discuss key theoretical, design and methodological considerations to help policymakers, funders and researchers commission and conduct rigorous evaluations of these policies and related disease prevention efforts. We encourage involving the perspectives of various stakeholders on what evaluations are needed given the specific context, what data and methods are appropriate, readily available or can be collected within time and budget constraints. A logic model /conceptual system map of anticipated implications across sectors and scales should help identify optimal study design, analytical techniques and measures. These models should be updated when synthesising findings across diverse methods and integrating findings across subpopulations using similar methods.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

Sugar intake from sweetened beverages and diabetes: A narrative review

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the fastest growing public health concerns around the world. Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption has been proven to be associated with adverse health consequences in the diabetic population. Reducing SSB consumption, body weight control, healthy diets, and increased physical activity have been suggested as strategies to improve diabetes prevention and management. This literature review provides an overview of: (1) The association between SSB consumption and the risk of T2DM; (2) Types of SSB consumption and T2DM; (3) The effect of obesity and inflammation on the association between SSB consumption and risk of T2DM; and (4) SSB consumption in T2DM patients. There is still work to be done to determine how SSB consumption is related to T2DM, but the current research on identifying the association between SSB consumption and T2DM is promising, with the most promising studies confirming the connection between SSBs, T2DM risk, and diabetes management. Future studies should explore more effective SSB related diabetes prevention and management interventions.

Population-Level Approaches to Preventing Type 2 Diabetes Globally

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasingly considered an epidemic rooted in modern society as much as in individual behavior. Addressing the T2DM burden thus involves a dual approach, simultaneously addressing high-risk individuals and whole populations. Within this context, this article summarizes the evidence base, in terms of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, for population-level approaches to prevent T2DM: (1) modifications to the food environment; (2) modifications to the built environment and physical activity; and (3) programs and policies to address social and economic factors. Existing knowledge gaps are also discussed.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BACKGROUND

Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model's features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model's outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.

PROSPERO PROTOCOL NUMBER

CRD42020121025 .

The burden of ischemic heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus attributable to diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages in China: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) attributable to a diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in China from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 were used to assess all-age and age-standardized, risk-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years of life with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, province, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

RESULTS

For total noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), 12 523 (95% uncertainty interval 776-27 631) deaths, 305 288 (18 611-661 847) YLL, 142 051 (64 530-257 468) YLD, and 447 339 (132 677-858 838) DALYs were attributable to diet high in SSBs in 2017, particularly among males. Age-standardized, risk-attributable mortality, YLL, YLD, and DALY rates increased distinctly by 507.3%, 410.3%, 571.0%, and 453.3% from 1990 to 2017 respectively. Age-sex-specific, risk-attributable mortality and YLL rates for IHD in older adults (over 65 years) were higher than in young (between 25 and 39 years) and middle-aged adults (between 40 and 64 years) in 2017; however, the YLD and DALY rates for T2DM were higher in young and middle-aged males than in older males. The age-standardized, risk-attributable DALY rates for total NCDs increased substantially in high-SDI and high-middle-SDI provinces during the period.

CONCLUSIONS

China has a huge and growing burden of IHD and T2DM attributable to diet high in SSBs, particularly among young and middle-aged male adults in wealthier provinces. Evidence-based public health policies at the provincial levels to reduce the consumption of SSBs should be prioritized in China.

Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study

BACKGROUND

In 2016, South Africa announced an intention to levy a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In 2018, the country implemented an SSB tax of approximately 10%, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). We aimed to assess changes in the purchases of beverages before and after the HPL announcement and implementation.

METHODS

We used Kantar Europanel data on monthly household purchases between January, 2014, and March, 2019, among a sample of South African households (n=113 653 household-month observations) from all nine provinces to obtain per-capita sugar, calories, and volume from taxable and non-taxable beverages purchased before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. We describe survey-weighted means for each period, and regression-controlled predictions of outcomes and counterfactuals based on pre-HPL announcement trends, with bootstrapped 95% CIs, and stratify results by socioeconomic status.

FINDINGS

Mean sugar from taxable beverage purchases fell from 16·25 g/capita per day (95% CI 15·80-16·70) to 14·26 (13·85-14·67) from the pre-HPL announcement to post-announcement period, and then to 10·63 g/capita per day (10·22-11·04) in the year after implementation. Mean volumes of taxable beverage purchases fell from 518·99 mL/capita per day (506·90-531·08) to 492·16 (481·28-503·04) from pre-announcement to post announcement, and then to 443·39 mL/capita per day (430·10-456·56) after implementation. Across these time periods, there was a small increase in the purchases of non-taxable beverages, from 283·45 mL/capita per day (273·34-293·56) pre-announcement to 312·94 (296·29-329·29) post implementation. When compared with pre-announcement counterfactual trends, reductions in taxable beverage purchase outcomes were significantly larger than the unadjusted survey-weighted observed reductions. Households with lower socioeconomic status purchased larger amounts of taxable beverages in the pre-announcement period than did households with higher socioeconomic status, but demonstrated bigger reductions after the tax was implemented.

INTERPRETATION

The announcement and introduction of South Africa's HPL were followed by reductions in the sugar, calories, and volume of beverage purchases.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies, International Development Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Transitions between body mass index categories, South Africa

Objective

To profile the prevalence of the three body mass index (BMI) categories by sociodemographic characteristics, and to calculate the percentage transitioning (or not) from one BMI category to another, to inform South African health policy for the control of obesity and noncommunicable diseases.

Methods

We used data from the National Income Dynamics Study, including sociodemographic characteristics and BMI measurements collected in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2017. For each data collection wave and each population group, we calculated mean BMI and prevalence by category. We also calculated the percentage making an upwards transition (e.g. from overweight to obese), a downwards transition or remaining within a particular category. We used a multinomial logistic regression model to estimate transition likelihood.

Findings

Between 2008 and 2017, mean BMI increased by 2.3 kg/m². We calculated an increased prevalence of obesity from 19.7% (3686/18 679) to 23.6% (3412/14 463), with the largest increases in prevalence for those aged 19–24 years and those with at least high school education. The percentages of upwards transitions to overweight or obese categories increased sharply between the ages of 19 and 50 years. Once overweight or obese, the likelihood of transitioning to a normal BMI is low, particularly for women, those of higher age groups, and those with a higher income and a higher level of education.

Conclusion

In the development of national strategies to control obesity and noncommunicable diseases, our results will allow limited public health resources to be focused on the relevant population groups.

Factors associated with glycemic control among South African adult residents of Mkhondo municipality living with diabetes mellitus

This study examines the rate and the influencing factors of glycemic control among adult residents living with DM in Mkhondo Municipality of South Africa.In this cross-sectional study, 157 individuals attending care for DM were recruited. Glycemic control status was categorized as poor if glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) > 7% and very poor if HbA1c ≥ 9%. Multivariate regression analysis was used to identify the significant determinants of poor and very poor glycemic control.The majority of the study participants were females (84.71%) and above 45 years old (88.55%). The overall prevalence of poor glycemic control was 77.71% (n = 122), while very poor glycemic control occurred in 50.6% (n = 80) of the study cohort. In the multivariate logistic regression model analysis, African traditional [AOR = 0.15; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.04-0.57], fast food consumption (AOR = 5.89; 95% CI 2.09-16.81), elevated total cholesterol (TC) [odds ratio (OR) = 2.33; 95% CI 1.50-5.17], elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (AOR = 5.28; 95% CI 1.89-14.69), and triglyceride (TG) (AOR = 4.39; 95% CI 1.48-13.00) were the independent and significant determinants of poor glycemic control. Age (AOR = 0.46; 95% CI 0.23-0.92) was the only independent and significant determinant of very poor glycemic control.We found a high rate of poor glycemic control (77.71%) possibly attributed to religious affiliation, fast food consumption, and dyslipidemia. On the contrary, about half of the study sample had very poor glycemic control (HbA1c ≥9%), which was predominant among younger cohort with diabetes mellitus. Interventions aimed at improving glycemic control in this population must also target religious practice, dietary patterns and dyslipidemia as well as tailored-approach for young people.

Impact of interventions to reduce overnutrition on healthcare costs related to obesity and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

CONTEXT

In recent decades, obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have both become global epidemics associated with substantial healthcare needs and costs.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review was to critically assess nutritional interventions for their impact on healthcare costs to community-dwelling individuals regarding T2DM or obesity or both, specifically using CHEERS (Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards) criteria to assess the economic components of the evidence.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were executed in Embase, EconLit, AgEcon, PubMed, and Web of Science databases.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if they had a nutritional perspective, reported an economic evaluation that included healthcare costs, and focused on obesity or T2DM or both. Studies were excluded if they examined clinical nutritional preparations, dietary supplements, industrially modified dietary components, micronutrient deficiencies, or undernutrition; if they did not report the isolated impact of nutrition in complex or lifestyle interventions; or if they were conducted in animals or attempted to transfer findings from animals to humans.

DATA EXTRACTION

A systematic review was performed according to PRISMA guidelines. Using predefined search terms, 21 studies evaluating food habit interventions or taxation of unhealthy foods and beverages were extracted and evaluated using CHEERS criteria.

RESULTS

Overall, these studies showed that nutrition interventions and taxation approaches could lead to cost savings and improved health outcomes when compared with current practice. All of the included studies used external sources and economic modeling or risk estimations with population-attributable risks to calculate economic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Most evidence supported taxation approaches. The effect of nutritional interventions has not been adequately assessed. Controlled studies to directly measure economic impacts are warranted.

Cost-effectiveness of Diabetes Prevention Interventions Targeting High-risk Individuals and Whole Populations: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review of studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness (CE) of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D) among high-risk individuals and whole populations.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Interventions targeting high-risk individuals are those that identify people at high risk of developing T2D and then treat them with either lifestyle or metformin interventions. Population-based prevention strategies are those that focus on the whole population regardless of the level of risk, creating public health impact through policy implementation, campaigns, and other environmental strategies. We systematically searched seven electronic databases for studies published in English between 2008 and 2017. We grouped lifestyle interventions targeting high-risk individuals by delivery method and personnel type. We used the median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured in cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) or cost saved to measure the CE of interventions. We used the $50,000/QALY threshold to determine whether an intervention was cost-effective or not. ICERs are reported in 2017 U.S. dollars.

RESULTS

Our review included 39 studies: 28 on interventions targeting high-risk individuals and 11 targeting whole populations. Both lifestyle and metformin interventions in high-risk individuals were cost-effective from a health care system or a societal perspective, with median ICERs of $12,510/QALY and $17,089/QALY, respectively, compared with no intervention. Among lifestyle interventions, those that followed a Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) curriculum had a median ICER of $6,212/QALY, while those that did not follow a DPP curriculum had a median ICER of $13,228/QALY. Compared with lifestyle interventions delivered one-on-one or by a health professional, those offered in a group setting or provided by a combination of health professionals and lay health workers had lower ICERs. Among population-based interventions, taxing sugar-sweetened beverages was cost-saving from both the health care system and governmental perspectives. Evaluations of other population-based interventions-including fruit and vegetable subsidies, community-based education programs, and modifications to the built environment-showed inconsistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the T2D prevention interventions included in our review were found to be either cost-effective or cost-saving. Our findings may help decision makers set priorities and allocate resources for T2D prevention in real-world settings.

Distributional equity as a consideration in economic and modelling evaluations of health taxes: A systematic review

PURPOSE/SETTING

The extent to which distributional equity is incorporated into evaluations of the (potential or observed) impact of health taxes is unclear. This systematic review of economic and modelling evaluations investigating taxation on tobacco, sugar-sweetened-beverages (SSBs), or alcohol aims to assess the proportion that have considered distributional impact by income or socioeconomic group. Secondary aims included summarising the reported distributional impacts, for both costs and health benefits.

FINDINGS

Of 4656 search results, 69 studies were included. The majority were economic analyses with epidemiological modelling, with studies on SSB taxes being of the highest quality. Tobacco was most commonly investigated tax, with 37 evaluations. Of these, 12 (32 %) considered distributional equity, with six (27 %) of 22 included SSB evaluations doing the same, and none for alcohol. A tobacco tax favoured lowerincome groups in the distribution of costs in all identified evaluations and for health benefits in nine out of 12 evaluations (75 %). For SSBs, four evaluations (67 %) found costs to favour low-income groups, with three (50 %) for health benefits.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite recommendations, evaluations of health taxes do not routinely consider the distributional impact of both costs and health benefits. Evaluations for alcohol taxation are particularly weak in this regard. Where investigated, the majority of evidence found tobacco taxation to favour low-income groups, whereas the limited evidence for SSBs is mixed.

Review of Ongoing Activities and Challenges to Improve the Care of Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Across Africa and the Implications for the Future

Background

There has been an appreciable increase in the number of people in Africa with metabolic syndrome and Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in recent years as a result of a number of factors. Factors include lifestyle changes, urbanisation, and the growing consumption of processed foods coupled with increasing levels of obesity. Currently there are 19 million adults in Africa with diabetes, mainly T2DM (95%), estimated to grow to 47 million people by 2045 unless controlled. This has a considerable impact on morbidity, mortality and costs in the region. There are a number of issues to address to reduce the impact of T2DM including improving detection rates and current access to services alongside addressing issues of adherence to prescribed medicines. There are also high rates of co-morbidities with infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis in patients in Africa with T2DM that require attention.

Objective

Document ongoing activities across Africa to improve the care of patients with T2DM especially around issues of identification, access, and adherence to changing lifestyles and prescribed medicines. In addition, discussing potential ways forward to improve the care of patients with T2DM based on ongoing activities and experiences including addressing key issues associated with co-morbidities with infectious diseases.

Our Approach

Contextualise the findings from a wide range of publications including internet based publications of national approaches coupled with input from senior level government, academic and other professionals from across Africa to provide future guidance.

Ongoing Activities

A number of African countries are actively instigating programmes to improve the care of patients with T2DM starting with improved diagnosis. This recognises the growing burden of non-communicable diseases across Africa, which has been neglected in the past. Planned activities include programmes to improve detection rates and address key issues with diet and lifestyle changes, alongside improving monitoring of care and activities to enhance adherence to prescribed medicines. In addition, addressing potential complexities involving diabetes patients with infectious disease co-morbidities. It is too early to fully assess the impact of such activities.

Conclusion

There are a number of ongoing activities across Africa to improve the management of patients with diabetes including co-morbidities. However, more needs to be done considering the high and growing burden of T2DM in Africa. Ongoing research will help further benefit resource allocation and subsequent care.

Impact of population distribution shifts in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland

PURPOSE

We simulate population shifts in the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and address previous methodological limitations to provide valid and reliable estimates of the potential impact of public health interventions on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland.

METHODS

A comparative risk assessment was conducted, using distribution shift calculations to estimate potential impact fractions (PIFs) for percentage reductions in SSB consumption. Data from the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition was analyzed. Individual risk of developing type II diabetes was estimated using a risk prediction algorithm. PIFs were calculated using risk estimates, changes in SSB consumption, and an appropriately specified relative risk. The impact of a 20% levy on SSBs was explored. Monte-Carlo simulation with 150,000 iterations estimated uncertainty intervals (UIs). PIFs were applied to 2016 census data, estimating the absolute incident cases that may potentially be avoided through reduced SSB consumption.

RESULTS

Of the 7272 Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition participants, 53.3% consumed SSBs. The 10-year rate of type II diabetes was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.2%, 4.4%). Simulating a 100% reduction in SSB consumption, the population attributable fraction was 1.8% (95%UI: 0.1%, 3.3%). Population shifts in consumption after a 20% levy results in a PIF of 0.37% (95%UI: 0.02%, 0.7%). We estimate 135,850 incident type II diabetes cases over a 10-year period. Of these, 2446 (95% UI: 136, 4483) cases may be attributable to SSB consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Overcoming previous methodological limitations, unbiased estimates demonstrate that a population shift in SSB consumption can potentially play a role in the primary prevention of type II diabetes.

Influence of Gut Microbiota on Progression to Tuberculosis Generated by High Fat Diet-Induced Obesity in C3HeB/FeJ Mice

The administration of a high fat content diet is an accelerating factor for metabolic syndrome, impaired glucose tolerance, and early type 2 diabetes. The present study aims to assess the impact of a high fat diet on tuberculosis progression and microbiota composition in an experimental animal model using a C3HeB/FeJ mouse strain submitted to single or multiple consecutive aerosol infections. These models allowed us to study the protection induced by Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination as well as by the natural immunity induced by chemotherapy after a low dose Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Our results show that a high fat diet is able to trigger a pro-inflammatory response, which results in a faster progression toward active tuberculosis and an impaired protective effect of BCG vaccination, which is not the case for natural immunity. This may be related to dysbiosis and a reduction in the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio in the gut microbiota caused by a decrease in the abundance of the Porphyromonadaceae family and, in particular, the Barnesiella genus. It should also be noted that a high fat diet is also related to an increase in the genera Alistipes, Parasuterella, Mucispirillum, and Akkermansia, which have previously been related to dysbiotic processes. As diabetes mellitus type 2 is a risk factor for developing tuberculosis, these findings may prove useful in the search for new prophylactic strategies for this population subset.

The distributional impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: findings from an extended cost-effectiveness analysis in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Facing increasing obesity prevalence and obesity-related disease burden, South Africa has devised an obesity prevention strategy that includes a recently implemented tax on the sugar content of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We assess the potential distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of this tax on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence and associated mortality and its financial burden on households.

METHODS

We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis of the new 10% tax on SSBs in South Africa, and estimated: the averted premature deaths related to T2DM, the financial benefits to households (out-of-pocket (OOP) medical costs and indirect costs due to productivity losses averted), the increased government tax revenues and healthcare savings for the government, all across income quintiles.

FINDINGS

A 10% SSB tax increase would avert an estimated 8000 T2DM-related premature deaths over 20 years, with most deaths averted among the third and fourth income quintiles. The government would save about South African rand (ZAR) 2 billion (US$140 million) in subsidised healthcare over 20 years; and would raise ZAR6 billion (US$450 million) in tax revenues per annum. The bottom two quintiles would bear the smallest tax burden increase (36% of the additional taxes). The bottom two income quintiles would also have the lowest savings in OOP payments due to significant subsidisation provided by government healthcare. Lastly, an estimated 32 000 T2DM-related cases of catastrophic expenditures and 12 000 cases of poverty would be averted.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB taxation would have a substantial distributional impact on obesity-related premature deaths, cost savings to the government and the financial outcomes of South Africa's population.

Perceived barriers and facilitators for healthy behaviours among parents of adolescents receiving mental health care in a public hospital in Cape Town, South Africa: A qualitative study

Objective: To explore the perceived barriers and facilitators for healthy behaviours among parents and caregivers of adolescents receiving mental health care in Cape Town, South Africa. Method: Thirty-five qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with parents and caregivers of adolescents receiving mental health treatment by six facilitators matched for language. The data was analysed using thematic analysis. Results: The participants were predominantly female (n = 28, 80%) and parents (n = 29, 83%) of the adolescents. Personal barriers to good health included unhealthy eating, substance use and physical inactivity. Environmental barriers were inherited medical conditions, the easy availability of unhealthy foods and the absence of recreational facilities in communities. Perceived facilitators to good health were parental role modelling, planning and preparing healthy meals, exercise opportunities providing by walking long distances to work, and doing physically demanding jobs and household chores. Conclusion: Parents and caregivers are essential to adolescents' healthy development as they may influence adolescent health behaviours. It is likely that the promotion of positive health behaviours may be achieved though family-based interventions.

Society of Behavioral Medicine (SBM) position statement: Enact taxes on sugar sweetened beverages to prevent chronic disease

The Society of Behavioral Medicine (SBM) encourages stakeholders to implement a sugar sweetened beverage excise tax. Sugar sweetened beverages are the largest source of added sugars in the USA and have detrimental effects on population health by increasing risks for chronic diseases. Based on existing research evidence, SBM supports an excise tax equivalent to at least 20% to meaningfully affect consumption patterns. As evidenced by research studies in Mexico and the USA, sugar sweetened beverage taxes can have positive impacts on population health and can raise significant tax revenue. To avoid potential unintended consequences that may arise from taxes to improve diet-related behaviors, it is important to monitor industry and consumer behavior in response to the tax.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in the early years and implications for type-2 diabetes: a sub-Saharan Africa context

This review aims to explore trends of early consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), within the context of growing child and adolescent obesity and escalating type-2 diabetes prevalence. We explore efforts to mitigate these, drawing on examples from Africa and elsewhere. SSB, including carbonated drinks and fruit juices, play a contributory role in the development of obesity and associated non-communicable diseases (NCD). SSA is an attractive market for beverage companies owing to its rapid economic growth, growing middle class and youthful populations. SSB already contribute significantly to total sugar and energy consumption in SSA where a plethora of marketing techniques targeted at younger people are utilised to ensure brand recognition and influence purchasing and brand loyalty. Coupled with a general lack of nutrition knowledge or engagement with preventative health, this can lead to frequent consumption of sugary drinks at a young age. Public health efforts in many high income and some middle-income countries address increasing prevalence of obesity and type-2 diabetes by focusing on strategies to encourage reduction in sugar consumption via health policy and public education campaigns. However, similar efforts are not as developed or forthcoming in low-income countries. Health care systems across SSA are ill-prepared to cope with epidemic proportions of NCD, particularly when contextualised with the ongoing battle with infectious diseases. We conclude that greater efforts by governments and the nutrition community to educate the public on the health effects of increased and excessive consumption of SSB are necessary to help address this issue.

Modelling the impact of a tax on sweetened beverages in the Philippines: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential impact of a new tax on sweetened beverages on premature deaths associated with noncommunicable diseases in the Philippines.

METHODS

In January 2018, the Philippines began imposing a tax of 6 Philippine pesos per litre (around 13%) on sweetened beverages to curb the obesity burden. Using national data sources, we conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate the effect of the tax on the numbers of premature deaths averted attributed to type 2 diabetes mellitus, ischaemic heart disease and stroke, across income quintiles over the period 2018-2037. We also estimated the financial benefits of the tax from reductions in out-of-pocket payments, direct medical costs averted and government health-care cost savings.

FINDINGS

The tax could avert an estimated 5913 deaths related to diabetes, 10 339 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 7950 deaths from stroke over 20 years. The largest number of deaths averted could be among the fourth and fifth (highest) income quintiles. The tax could generate total health-care savings of 31.6 billion Philippine pesos (627 million United States dollars, US$) over 20 years, and raise 41.0 billion Philippine pesos (US$ 813 million) in revenue per annum. The poorest quintile could bear the smallest tax burden increase (14% of the additional tax; 5.6 billion Philippine pesos) and have the lowest savings in out-of-pocket payments due to relatively large health-care subsidies. Finally, we estimated that 13 890 cases of catastrophic expenditure could be averted.

CONCLUSION

The new sweetened beverage tax may help to reduce obesity-related premature deaths and improve financial well-being in the Philippines.

The increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases in low-middle income countries: the view from Malawi

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally, the majority of these being due to cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, or diabetes. Mortality from many NCDs continues to increase worldwide, with a disproportionately larger impact in low-middle income countries (LMIs), where almost 75% of global deaths occur from these causes. As a low-income African country that consistently ranks amongst the world's poorest nations, Malawi as a case study demonstrates how transition due to societal change and increasing urbanization is often accompanied by a rise in the rate of NCDs. Other factors apart from changing lifestyle factors can explain at least some of this increase, such as the complex relationship between communicable and NCD and growing environmental, occupational, and cultural pressures. Malawi and other LMIs are struggling to manage the increasing challenge of NCDs, in addition to an already high communicable disease burden. However, health care policy implementation, specific health promotion campaigns, and further epidemiological research may be key to attenuating this impending health crisis, both in Malawi and elsewhere. This review aims to examine the effects of the major NCDs in Malawi to help inform future public health care policy in the region.

Sugar intake in Sudanese individuals was associated with some features of the metabolic syndrome: Population based study

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess the level of sugar intake among Sudanese individuals.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study with 323 participants. Respondents were grouped by the total intake of added sugars into two groups, one group with sugar intake more than 200 calories per day and other group with sugar intake less than 200 calories per day. Demographic data were collected with anthropometric measurements like body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference. Chi square, T-Tests and stepwise logistic regression were used (a p-value <0.05 was considered significant).

RESULTS

High sugar intake was noted among 74.6% participants and among overweight, normal weight, followed by obese (p<0.015) and then individuals with diabetes and hypertension (p <0.000 and 0.038 respectively).High sugar intake was also associated with abdominal obesity (p<0.016), mean age of 33 years old (p<0.00) and being married and single(p<0.003). Stepwise logistic regression showed diabetes and BMI<25 were absolute predictors for sugar consumption with p value of 0.001 and 0.039 respectively. Individuals with diabetes have more than five times probability to consume large amount of sugar (Odd ratio 5.6), while those with BMI<25 have two times risk of consuming more sugar compared to those with BMI>25 group (Odd ratio 2.1).

CONCLUSION

A large percentage of Sudanese population uses a high amount of sugar. High sugar intake was associated with normal weight, overweight, abdominal obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Absolute predictors of high sugar intake were diabetes and normal body weight.

Association between excess weight and beverage portion size consumed in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To describe the beverage portion size consumed and to evaluate their association with excess weight in Brazil. METHODS We used data from the National Dietary Survey, which included individuals with two days of food record aged over 20 years (n = 24,527 individuals). The beverages were categorized into six groups: soft drink, 100% fruit juice, fruit drink, alcoholic beverage, milk, and coffee or tea. We estimated the average portion consumed for each group and we evaluated, using linear regression, the association between portion size per group and the variables of age, sex, income, and nutritional status. We tested the association between portion size and excess weight using Poisson regression, adjusted for age, sex, income, and total energy intake. RESULTS The most frequently consumed beverages in Brazil were coffee and tea, followed by 100% fruit juices, soft drinks, and milk. Alcoholic beverages presented the highest average in the portion size consumed, followed by soft drinks, 100% fruit juice, fruit drink, and milk. Portion size showed positive association with excess weight only in the soft drink (PR = 1.19, 95%CI 1.10-1.27) and alcoholic beverage groups (PR = 1.20, 95%CI, 1.11-1.29), regardless of age, sex, income, and total energy intake. CONCLUSIONS Alcoholic beverages and soft drinks presented the highest averages in portion size and positive association with excess weight. Public health interventions should address the issue of portion sizes offered to consumers by discouraging the consumption of large portions, especially sweetened and low nutritional beverages.

Sugary beverage taxation in South Africa: Household expenditure, demand system elasticities, and policy implications

South Africa faces a severe and growing obesity epidemic. Obesity and its co-morbidities raise public and private expenditures on healthcare. Sugary beverages are heavily consumed in South Africa and are linked to the onset of overweight and obesity. Excise taxation of sugary beverages has been proposed and adopted in other settings as a means to reduce harms from their consumption. A tax on the sugar content of non-alcoholic beverages has been proposed for implementation in South Africa, however, the public health effects and revenue raising potential of this measure hinges on estimates of the targeted beverages own- and cross-price elasticities. This study applies demand system methods by combining expenditure survey data and sub-national price data to provide the first estimates of price and expenditure elasticities for categories of soft drinks that would be subject to South Africa's proposed sugary beverage tax. The results suggest that demand for these products is sufficiently price-elastic such that a significant reduction in consumption may result from a tax.

The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

BACKGROUND

Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US.

METHODS

Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES).

RESULTS

Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

Consumption of Carbonated Soft Drinks Among Young Adolescents Aged 12 to 15 Years in 53 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

OBJECTIVES

To compare consumption of carbonated soft drinks among young adolescents in 53 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We used 2009 to 2013 Global School-based Student Health Survey data to assess 137 449 young adolescents aged 12 to 15 years with available data (via a standardized questionnaire) on frequency of carbonated soft drink consumption.

RESULTS

Overall, young adolescents reported having consumed carbonated soft drinks 1.39 times per day (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26, 1.51), and 54.3% of adolescents reported consuming a carbonated soft drink at least once per day. Frequency (times per day) varied greatly across countries, ranging from 0.52 (95% CI = 0.43, 0.60) in Kiribati to 2.39 (95% CI = 2.25, 2.53) in Suriname.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirm that consumption of carbonated soft drinks is frequent among young adolescents in LMICs. Our findings highlight the need for interventions in these countries to reduce adolescents' carbonated soft drink consumption.

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: impact on overweight and obesity in Germany

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany.

METHODS

The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups.

RESULTS

Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%).

CONCLUSIONS

An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.

Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Reduce Overweight and Obesity in Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

Background

The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which can lead to weight gain, is rising in middle-income countries (MICs). Taxing SSBs may help address this challenge. Systematic reviews focused on high-income countries indicate that taxing SSBs may reduce SSB consumption. Responsiveness to price changes may differ in MICs, where governments are considering the tax. To help inform their policy decisions, this review compiles evidence from MICs, assessing post-tax price increases (objective 1), changes in demand for SSBs and other products, overall and by socio-economic groups (objective 2), and effects on overweight and obesity prevalence (objective 3).

Methods and Findings

We conducted a systematic review on the effectiveness of SSB taxation in MICs (1990–2016) and identified nine studies from Brazil, Ecuador, India, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Estimates for own-price elasticity ranged from -0.6 to -1.2, and decreases in SSB consumption ranged from 5 to 39 kilojoules per person per day given a 10% increase in SSB prices. The review found that milk is a likely substitute, and foods prepared away from home, snacks, and candy are likely complements to SSBs. A quasi-experimental study and two modeling studies also found a negative relationship between SSB prices and obesity outcomes after accounting for substitution effects. Estimates are consistent despite variation in baseline obesity prevalence and per person per day consumption of SSBs across countries studied.

Conclusions

The review indicates that taxing SSBs will increase the prices of SSBs, especially sugary soda, in markets with few producers. Taxing SSBs will also reduce net energy intake by enough to prevent further growth in obesity prevalence, but not to reduce population weight permanently. Additional research using better survey data and stronger study designs is needed to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of an SSB tax on obesity prevalence in MICs.

Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.

METHODS

A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke.

RESULTS

Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000.

CONCLUSIONS

Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.