Zika beyond the Americas: Travelers as sentinels of Zika virus transmission. A GeoSentinel analysis, 2012 to 2016

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

Impact, healthcare utilization and costs of travel-associated mosquito-borne diseases in international travellers: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

International travellers frequently acquire infectious diseases whilst travelling, yet relatively little is known about the impact and economic burden of these illnesses on travellers. We conducted a prospective exploratory costing study on adult returning travellers with falciparum malaria, dengue, chikungunya or Zika virus.

METHODS

Patients were recruited in eight Travel and Tropical Medicine clinics between June 2016 and March 2020 upon travellers' first contact with the health system in their country of residence. The patients were presented with a structured 52-question self-administered questionnaire after full recovery to collect information on patients' healthcare utilization and out-of-pocket costs both in the destination and home country, and about income and other financial losses due to the illness.

RESULTS

A total of 134 patients participated in the study (malaria, 66; dengue, 51; chikungunya, 8; Zika virus, 9; all fully recovered; median age 40; range 18-72 years). Prior to travelling, 42% of patients reported procuring medical evacuation insurance. Across the four illnesses, only 7% of patients were hospitalized abroad compared with 61% at home. Similarly, 15% sought ambulatory services whilst abroad compared with 61% at home. The average direct out-of-pocket hospitalization cost in the destination country (USD $2236; range: $108-$5160) was higher than the direct out-of-pocket ambulatory cost in the destination country (USD $327; range: $0-$1560), the direct out-of-pocket hospitalization cost at home (USD $35; range: $0-$120) and the direct out-of-pocket ambulatory costs at home (US$45; range: $0-$192). Respondents with dengue or malaria lost a median of USD $570 (Interquartile range [IQR] 240-1140) and USD $240 (IQR 0-600), respectively, due to their illness, whilst those with chikungunya and Zika virus lost a median of USD $2400 (IQR 1200-3600) and USD $1500 (IQR 510-2625), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Travellers often incur significant costs due to travel-acquired diseases. Further research into the economic impact of these diseases on travellers should be conducted.

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

Zika virus infection in European travellers returning from Thailand in 2022: A GeoSentinel case series

Zika virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which caused major epidemics in the Pacific and the Americas between 2013 and 2015. International travellers have previously acted as a sentinel population for Zika virus transmission in endemic areas, where local transmission may be incompletely captured by local surveillance systems. We report five recent European travellers returning from Thailand with Zika virus infection, highlighting the risk of ongoing endemic transmission in this popular tourist destination.

Doxycycline responding illnesses in returning travellers with undifferentiated non-malaria fever: a European multicentre prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of undifferentiated non-malaria fevers (NMF) in returning travellers is a great challenge. Currently, there is no consensus about the use of empirical antibiotics in returning travellers with undifferentiated NMF. Although studies in endemic areas showed that a wide range of pathogens implicated in undifferentiated NMF are treatable with doxycycline, the role of doxycycline in returning travellers with fever still has to be explored.

METHODS

Prospective European multicentre cohort study of febrile international travellers (November 2017-November 2019). Immunological and molecular diagnostic techniques for doxycycline responding illnesses (DRI) agents such as Anaplasma phagocytophilum, spotted fever group Rickettsia spp., typhus group Rickettsia spp., Coxiella burnetii, Bartonella spp., Orientia tsutsugamushi, Borrelia miyamotoi, Borrelia recurrentis and Leptospira spp. were systematically performed in all patients with undifferentiated NMF. We estimated the prevalence and predictive factors of DRI in returning travellers with undifferentiated NMF.

RESULTS

Among 347 travellers with undifferentiated NMF, 106 (30·5%) were finally diagnosed with DRI. Only 57 (53·8%) of the 106 DRI infections were diagnosed by the standard of care. The main causes of DRI were: 55 (51·9%) Rickettsia spp., 16 (15·1%) C. burnetii; 15 (14·2%) Bartonella spp.; 13 (12·3%) Leptospira spp. and 10 (9·5%) A. phagocytophilum. The only predictive factor associated with DRI was presenting an eschar (aOR 39·52, 95%CI 4·85-322·18). Features of dengue such as retro-orbital pain (aOR 0·40, 95%CI 0·21-0·76) and neutropenia (aOR 0·41, 95%CI 0·21-0·79) were negatively associated with DRI.

CONCLUSIONS

Although DRI are responsible for 30% of undifferentiated NMF cases in travellers, those are seldom recognized during the first clinical encounter. Empirical treatment with doxycycline should be considered in returning travellers with undifferentiated fever and negative tests for malaria and dengue, particularly when presenting severe illness, predictive factors for rickettsiosis or no features of dengue.

Arthropod-borne diseases among travellers arriving in Europe from Africa, 2015 to 2019

BackgroundTravellers are generally considered good sentinels for infectious disease surveillance.AimTo investigate whether health data from travellers arriving from Africa to Europe could provide evidence to support surveillance systems in Africa.MethodsWe examined disease occurrence and estimated risk of infection among travellers arriving from Africa to Europe from 2015 to 2019 using surveillance data of arthropod-borne disease cases collected through The European Surveillance System (TESSy) and flight passenger volumes from the International Air Transport Association.ResultsMalaria was the most common arthropod-borne disease reported among travellers from Africa, with 34,235 cases. The malaria travellers' infection rate (TIR) was 28.8 cases per 100,000 travellers, which is 36 and 144 times higher than the TIR for dengue and chikungunya, respectively. The malaria TIR was highest among travellers arriving from Central and Western Africa. There were 956 and 161 diagnosed imported cases of dengue and chikungunya, respectively. The highest TIR was among travellers arriving from Central, Eastern and Western Africa for dengue and from Central Africa for chikungunya in this period. Limited numbers of cases of Zika virus disease, West Nile virus infection, Rift Valley fever and yellow fever were reported.ConclusionsDespite some limitations, travellers' health data can efficiently complement local surveillance data in Africa, particularly when the country or region has a sub-optimal surveillance system. The sharing of anonymised traveller health data between regions/continents should be encouraged.

Imported Arbovirus Infections in Spain, 2009-2018

To determine the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of patients in Spain with imported arbovirus infections, we analyzed 22,655 records from a collaborative network for January 2009-December 2018. Among 861 arbovirus infections, 845 were monoinfections (456 [53%] dengue, 280 [32.5%] chikungunya, 109 [12.7%] Zika) and 16 (1.8%) were co-infections. Most patients were travelers (56.3%) or immigrants returning to Spain after visiting friends or relatives (31.3%). Median patient age was 37 years; most (62.3%) were women and some (28.6%) had received pretravel advice. Only 12 patients were immunosuppressed. Six cases (all dengue monoinfections, none in immunosuppressed patients) were severe. Since 2014, nondengue arbovirus infections increased; until 2016, chikungunya and Zika were most common. Imported arbovirus infections (mostly dengue) were frequently diagnosed, although increased chikungunya and Zika virus infections coincided with their introduction and spread in the Americas. A large proportion of cases occurred in women of childbearing age, some despite receipt of pretravel advice.

Travel-related infections presenting in Europe: A 20-year analysis of EuroTravNet surveillance data

Background

Disease epidemiology of (re-)emerging infectious diseases is changing rapidly, rendering surveillance of travel-associated illness important.

Methods

We evaluated travel-related illness encountered at EuroTravNet clinics, the European surveillance sub-network of GeoSentinel, between March 1, 1998 and March 31, 2018.

Findings

103,739 ill travellers were evaluated, including 11,239 (10.8%) migrants, 89,620 (86.4%) patients seen post-travel, and 2,880 (2.8%) during and after travel. Despite increasing numbers of patient encounters over 20 years, the regions of exposure by year of clinic visits have remained stable. In 5-year increments, greater proportions of patients were migrants or visiting friends and relatives (VFR); business travel-associated illness remained stable; tourism-related illness decreased. Falciparum malaria was amongst the most-frequently diagnosed illnesses with 5,254 cases (5.1% of all patients) and the most-frequent cause of death (risk ratio versus all other illnesses 2.5:1). Animal exposures requiring rabies post-exposure prophylaxis increased from 0.7% (1998–2002) to 3.6% (2013–2018). The proportion of patients with seasonal influenza increased from zero in 1998–2002 to 0.9% in 2013–2018. There were 44 cases of viral haemorrhagic fever, most during the past five years. Arboviral infection numbers increased significantly as did the range of presenting arboviral diseases, dengue and chikungunya diagnoses increased by 2.6% and 1%, respectively.

Interpretation

Travel medicine must adapt to serve the changing profile of travellers, with an increase in migrants and persons visiting relatives and friends and the strong emergence of vector-borne diseases, with potential for further local transmission in Europe.

Funding

This project was supported by a cooperative agreement (U50CK00189) between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the International Society of Travel Medicine (ISTM) and funding from the ISTM and the Public Health Agency of Canada.

GeoSentinel: past, present and future†

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

In response to increased concerns about emerging infectious diseases, GeoSentinel, the Global Surveillance Network of the International Society of Travel Medicine in partnership with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), was established in 1995 in order to serve as a global provider-based emerging infections sentinel network, conduct surveillance for travel-related infections and communicate and assist global public health responses. This review summarizes the history, past achievements and future directions of the GeoSentinel Network.

KEY FINDINGS

Funded by the US CDC in 1996, GeoSentinel has grown from a group of eight US-based travel and tropical medicine centers to a global network, which currently consists of 68 sites in 28 countries. GeoSentinel has provided important contributions that have enhanced the ability to use destination-specific differences to guide diagnosis and treatment of returning travelers, migrants and refugees. During the last two decades, GeoSentinel has identified a number of sentinel infectious disease events including previously unrecognized outbreaks and occurrence of diseases in locations thought not to harbor certain infectious agents. GeoSentinel has also provided useful insight into illnesses affecting different traveling populations such as migrants, business travelers and students, while characterizing in greater detail the epidemiology of infectious diseases such as typhoid fever, leishmaniasis and Zika virus disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance of travel- and migration-related infectious diseases has been the main focus of GeoSentinel for the last 25 years. However, GeoSentinel is now evolving into a network that will conduct both research and surveillance. The large number of participating sites and excellent geographic coverage for identification of both common and illnesses in individuals who have traversed international borders uniquely position GeoSentinel to make important contributions of travel-related infectious diseases in the years to come.

Dengue, chikungunya and Zika in GeoSentinel surveillance of international travellers: a literature review from 1995 to 2020

INTRODUCTION

GeoSentinel is a global surveillance network of travel medicine providers seeing ill-returned travellers. Much of our knowledge on health problems and infectious encountered by international travellers has evolved as a result of GeoSentinel surveillance, providing geographic and temporal trends in morbidity among travellers while contributing to improved pre-travel advice. We set out to synthesize epidemiological information, clinical manifestations and time trends for dengue, chikungunya and Zika in travellers as captured by GeoSentinel.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed on international travellers who presented with dengue, chikungunya or Zika virus infections to GeoSentinel sites around the world from 1995 until 2020.

RESULTS

Of 107 GeoSentinel publications, 42 articles were related to dengue, chikungunya and/or Zika. The final analyses and synthesis of and results presented here are based on the findings from 27 original articles covering the three arboviral diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue is the most frequent arboviral disease encountered in travellers presenting to GeoSentinel sites, with increasing trends over the past two decades. In Southeast Asia, annual proportionate morbidity increased from 50 dengue cases per 1000 ill returned travellers in non-epidemic years to an average of 159 cases per 1000 travellers during epidemic years. The highest number of travellers with chikungunya virus infections was reported during the chikungunya outbreak in the Americas and the Caribbean in the years 2013-16. Zika was first reported by GeoSentinel already in 2012, but notifications peaked in the years 2016-17 reflecting the public health emergency in the Americas at the time.

Zika circulation, congenital syndrome, and current guidelines: making sense of it all for the traveller

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through the Americas and led to recognition of its neurotropism. Zika circulation elsewhere in the world, nonvector transmission including maternal-fetal/sexual/transfusion routes, and additional reports on congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) have been published.

RECENT FINDINGS

In 2018-2019, ZIKV transmission occurred in Cuba, India, and is suspected to appear sporadically in other countries. Maternal-fetal ZIKV transmission appears to occur in about 26% of ZIKV-infected pregnant women. The US ZIKV Pregnancy and Infant Registry identified 6% of live births to have at least one ZIKV-associated birth defect; 9% had at least one neurodevelopmental abnormality; 1% had both. Infectious virus was rarely isolated from semen of ZIKV-infected male patients beyond day 38 after symptom onset. Brazilian blood donations had low ZIKV prevalence in 2015-2016; in the United States, screening donations was cost-effective only in the high mosquito season in Puerto Rico.

SUMMARY

ZIKV transmission continues; many countries with competent mosquitoes are at risk. Transmission can occur without detection where surveillance is poor and laboratory capacity limited. Travelers are important sentinels. Variations exist among ZIKV strains and Aedes mosquitoes that influence competence for transmission. Maternal-fetal transmission results in significant rates of abnormality. Identification of infectious virus in semen clarifies sexual transmission risk, with updated recommendations for preconception planning. ZIKV neurotropism requires further research and long-term follow-up.

Zika among international travellers presenting to GeoSentinel sites, 2012-2019: implications for clinical practice

INTRODUCTION

International travellers contribute to the rapid spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) and its sentinel identification globally. We describe ZIKV infections among international travellers seen at GeoSentinel sites with a focus on ZIKV acquired in the Americas and the Caribbean, describe countries of exposure and traveller characteristics, and assess ZIKV diagnostic testing by site.

METHODS

Records with an international travel-related diagnosis of confirmed or probable ZIKV from January 2012 through December 2019 reported to GeoSentinel with a recorded illness onset date were included to show reported cases over time. Records from March 2016 through December 2019 with an exposure region of the Americas or the Caribbean were included in the descriptive analysis. A survey was conducted to assess the availability, accessibility and utilization of ZIKV diagnostic tests at GeoSentinel sites.

RESULTS

GeoSentinel sites reported 525 ZIKV cases from 2012 through 2019. Between 2012 and 2014, eight cases were reported, and all were acquired in Asia or Oceania. After 2014, most cases were acquired in the Americas or the Caribbean, a large decline in ZIKV cases occurred in 2018-19.Between March 2016 and December 2019, 423 patients acquired ZIKV in the Americas or the Caribbean, peak reporting to these regions occurred in 2016 [330 cases (78%)]. The median age was 36 years (range: 3-92); 63% were female. The most frequent region of exposure was the Caribbean (60%). Thirteen travellers were pregnant during or after travel; one had a sexually acquired ZIKV infection. There was one case of fetal anomaly and two travellers with Guillain-Barré syndrome. GeoSentinel sites reported various challenges to diagnose ZIKV effectively.

CONCLUSION

ZIKV should remain a consideration for travellers returning from areas with risk of ZIKV transmission. Travellers should discuss their travel plans with their healthcare providers to ensure ZIKV prevention measures are taken.

ZikaPLAN: addressing the knowledge gaps and working towards a research preparedness network in the Americas

Zika Preparedness Latin American Network (ZikaPLAN) is a research consortium funded by the European Commission to address the research gaps in combating Zika and to establish a sustainable network with research capacity building in the Americas. Here we present a report on ZikaPLAN`s mid-term achievements since its initiation in October 2016 to June 2019, illustrating the research objectives of the 15 work packages ranging from virology, diagnostics, entomology and vector control, modelling to clinical cohort studies in pregnant women and neonates, as well as studies on the neurological complications of Zika infections in adolescents and adults. For example, the Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study (NEAS) has set up more than 10 clinical sites in Colombia. Through the Butantan Phase 3 dengue vaccine trial, we have access to samples of 17,000 subjects in 14 different geographic locations in Brazil. To address the lack of access to clinical samples for diagnostic evaluation, ZikaPLAN set up a network of quality sites with access to well-characterized clinical specimens and capacity for independent evaluations. The International Committee for Congenital Anomaly Surveillance Tools was formed with global representation from regional networks conducting birth defects surveillance. We have collated a comprehensive inventory of resources and tools for birth defects surveillance, and developed an App for low resource regions facilitating the coding and description of all major externally visible congenital anomalies including congenital Zika syndrome. Research Capacity Network (REDe) is a shared and open resource centre where researchers and health workers can access tools, resources and support, enabling better and more research in the region. Addressing the gap in research capacity in LMICs is pivotal in ensuring broad-based systems to be prepared for the next outbreak. Our shared and open research space through REDe will be used to maximize the transfer of research into practice by summarizing the research output and by hosting the tools, resources, guidance and recommendations generated by these studies. Leveraging on the research from this consortium, we are working towards a research preparedness network.

The Role of the Middle East in ZIKA Virus Circulation: Implications of a Cross-Sectional Study in Jordan

ZIKA virus (ZIKAV) outbreak in Latin America was associated with international concerns of ZIKAV circulation. The lack of vaccine and Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs against this virus rendered prevention as the single most effective method to control its spread. Hence, this study aimed to assess Jordanian population knowledge, attitude, and practices toward ZIKAV and its prevention. An anonymous questionnaire was administered to adults in Amman, Jordan. The overall knowledge of participants was poor (mean knowledge score of 13.7/32). Between 75% and 86% of the respondents did not know the highest risk group of ZIKAV infection, its complications, and the major routes of transmission. About 40% of the population did not know that ZIKAV is sexually transmitted. Only 40% of the population believed that prevention measures are effective. Female gender, working in the medical field, having children, and the source of medical information were associated with significantly higher level of knowledge (R ² = 0.143, P-value < 0.0001). Being pregnant, however, was not associated with a significantly high knowledge score. Physician recommendations and government's role were the most important predictors of practices toward ZIKAV prevention. Of the 14 returnees from outbreak areas, only six were tested for ZIKAV on coming back and only three continued the use of prevention measures for a sufficient time. Therefore, formulation of a national health policy, preparedness plans against any potential transmission, and organization of educational campaigns to meet the population's health educational needs are required. Special emphasis should be placed on pregnant women and travelers to/returnees from ZIKAV-affected areas.

Characteristics of Zika virus infection among international travelers: A prospective study from a Spanish referral unit

BACKGROUND

From the first Zika virus (ZIKV) description, it has progressively widespread worldwide. We analyzed demographic, clinical, microbiologic and travel-related characteristic from returned patients from a ZIKV endemic country in a referral Tropical Medicine Unit.

METHOD

A prospective cohort study performed in a Spanish referral center with the aim of determining the significant factors associated with confirmed Zika virus (ZIKV) infection.

RESULTS

817 patients, (56% women, median age 36 [IQR, Interquartile Range: 32-42]) were enrolled. Most had returned from Latin America (n = 486; 59.4%), travelled for tourism (n = 404; 49.4%) and stayed a median of 18 days (IQR: 10-30). 602 (73.6%) presented symptoms, but only 25 (4%) were finally diagnosed with confirmed ZIKV infection (including two pregnant women, without adverse fetal outcomes), 88% (n:22) presented with fever and 92% (n:23) with rash. 56% (n:14) arthralgia and/or myalgia and 28% (n:7) conjunctivitis. The presence of conjunctivitis, fever and rash were associated with an 8.9 (95% CI: 2.2-34.9), 6.4 (95% CI: 1.2-33.3) and 72.3 (95% CI: 9.2-563.5) times greater probability of confirmed ZIKV infection, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Travel characteristics and clinical presentation may help clinicians to optimize requests for microbiological testing. Diagnosis of arboviriasis in travellers arriving form endemic areas remains a challenge for clinicians, but must be detected for the possible transmission outside endemic areas, where the vector is present.

[Epidemic and emerging prone-infectious diseases: Lessons learned and ways forward]

Africa along side with south-east Asia are the epicentres of emerging and epidemic prone-infectious diseases and megacity biosecurity threat scenarios. Massive mobility and reluctance in the populations exposed to epidemic and emerging prone-infectious diseases coupled by a weak health system made disease alert and control measures difficult to implement. The investigation of virus detection and persistence in semen across a range of emerging viruses is useful for clinical and public health reasons, in particular for viruses that lead to high mortality or morbidity rates or to epidemics. Innovating built facility to safely treat patients with highly pathogenic infectious diseases is urgently need, not only to prevent the spread of infection from patients to healthcare workers but also to offer provision of relatively invasive organ support, whenever considered appropriate, without posing additional risk to staff. Despite multiple challenges, the need to conduct research during epidemics is inevitable, and candidate products must continue undergoing rigorous trials. Preparedness including management of complex humanitarian crises with community distrust is a cornerstone in response to high consequence emerging infectious disease outbreaks and imposes strengthening of the public health response infrastructure and emergency outbreak systems in high-risk regions.

Zika Vaccine Development: Current Status

Zika virus outbreaks have been explosive and unpredictable and have led to significant adverse health effects-as well as considerable public anxiety. Significant scientific work has resulted in multiple candidate vaccines that are now undergoing further clinical development, with several vaccines now in phase 2 clinical trials. In this review, we survey current vaccine efforts, preclinical and clinical results, and ethical and other concerns that directly bear on vaccine development. It is clear that the world needs safe and effective vaccines to protect against Zika virus infection. Whether such vaccines can be developed through to licensure and public availability absent significant financial investment by countries, and other barriers discussed within this article, remains uncertain.

Impact evaluation of Zika epidemic on congenital anomalies registration in Brazil: An interrupted time series analysis

This study aimed to assess the impact of the Zika epidemic on the registration of birth defects in Brazil. We used an interrupted time series analysis design to identify changes in the trends in the registration of congenital anomalies. We obtained monthly data from Brazilian Live Birth Information System and used two outcome definitions: 1) rate of congenital malformation of the brain and eye (likely to be affected by Zika and its complications) 2) rate of congenital malformation not related to the brain or eye unlikely to be causally affected by Zika. The period between maternal infection with Zika and diagnosis of congenital abnormality attributable to the infection is around six months. We therefore used September 2015 as the interruption point in the time series, six months following March 2015 when cases of Zika started to increase. For the purposes of this analysis, we considered the period from January 2010 to September 2015 to be "pre-Zika event," and the period from just after September 2015 to December 2017 to be "post-Zika event." We found that immediately after the interruption point, there was a great increase in the notification rate of congenital anomalies of 14.9/10,000 live births in the brain and eye group and of 5.2/10,000 live births in the group not related with brain or eye malformations. This increase in reporting was in all regions of the country (except in the South) and especially in the Northeast. In the period "post-Zika event", unlike the brain and eye group which showed a monthly decrease, the group without brain or eye malformations showed a slow but significant increase (relative to the pre-Zika trend) of 0.2/10,000 live births. These findings suggest an overall improvement in the registration of birth malformations, including malformations that were not attributed to Zika, during and after the Zika epidemic.

Zika knowledge and prevention practices among U.S. travelers: a large cross-sectional survey study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate what factors predict knowledge about Zika transmission, symptomology, and treatment among U.S. travelers and, additionally, to evaluate how Zika knowledge influences the adoption of personal protective behaviors.

METHODS

Data were collected as part of a cross-sectional survey study using a probability-based internet panel of U.S. travelers in June 2017. We ran logistic regression models of factors predicting Zika knowledge (high vs. low) and of knowledge predicting adoption of personal protective measures.

RESULTS

We found that traveling to a Zika endemic country and travelers' gender were both significantly predictive of higher Zika knowledge (odds ratio (OR): 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14-1.93 and OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.08-1.92), adjusting for age, race, education, income, and trip purpose. Additionally, among travelers to Zika endemic countries, individuals with higher Zika knowledge had significantly higher odds of engaging in preventive behaviors compared to those with lower knowledge. However, few travelers knew about the sexual transmission of Zika and adopted sexual prevention measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that there are gaps in knowledge about the risks and transmission of Zika and travelers with low knowledge are less likely to engage in the appropriate prevention methods. Significantly, few U.S. travelers have knowledge of the sexual transmission of Zika and, accordingly, there is less overall engagement with prevention measures for this transmission mechanism than for vector-borne transmission.

Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic

The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Incidence of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) in Latin America and the Caribbean before and during the 2015-2016 Zika virus epidemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A severe neurological disorder, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is the leading cause of acute flaccid paralysis. Enhanced surveillance of GBS in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) following the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic presents an opportunity to estimate, for the first time, the regional incidence of GBS.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched nine scientific databases and grey literature from January 1, 1980 to October 1, 2018. Sources with primary data on incident GBS cases in LAC within a well-defined population and timeframe, published in English, Spanish, Portuguese, or French, were included. We calculated the annual GBS incidence rates (IRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each source based on published data. Following an assessment of heterogeneity, we used random-effects meta-analysis to calculate the pooled annual IR of GBS. The study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018086659. Of the 6568 initial citation hits, 31 were eligible for inclusion. Background annual GBS IRs in Latin America ranged from 0.40 in Brazil to 2.12/100,000 in Chile. The pooled annual IR in the Caribbean was 1.64 (95% CI 1.29-2.12, I2<0.01, p = 0.44). During the ZIKV epidemic, GBS IRs ranged from 0.62 in Mexico to 9.35/100,000 in Martinique. GBS increased 2.6 (95% CI 2.3-2.9) times during ZIKV and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.4) times during chikungunya outbreaks over background rates. A limitation of this review is that the studies included employed different methodologies to find and ascertain cases of GBS, which could contribute to IR heterogeneity. In addition, it is important to consider that data on GBS are lacking for many countries in the region.

CONCLUSIONS

Background IRs of GBS appear to peak during arboviral disease outbreaks. The current review contributes to an understanding of the epidemiology of GBS in the LAC region, which can inform healthcare system planning and preparedness, particularly during arboviral epidemics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered with PROSPERO: CRD42018086659.

Zika virus in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia: are there health risks for travelers?

Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia have reported first cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection since 2010 (Cambodia) and 2016 (Vietnam and Laos). One case of ZIKV-related microcephaly was recognized among a hundred infected cases in these areas, raising a great concern about the health risk related to this virus infection. At least 5 cases of ZIKV infection among travelers to Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia were recorded. It is noticeable that ZIKV in these areas can cause birth defects. This work aims to discuss the current epidemics of ZIKV in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia and update the infection risk of ZIKV for travelers to these areas.

Reducing infectious disease inequities among migrants

BACKGROUND

migration has reached unprecedented levels, with 3.6% of the world's population living outside their country of birth. Migrants comprise a substantial proportion of high-income country populations, are at increased risk of a range of infectious diseases, compared to native-born populations and may experience worse health outcomes due to barriers accessing timely diagnoses and treatment. Poor access to essential healthcare services can be attributed to several factors, including language and cultural barriers and lack of specific inclusive health policies.

METHODS

This review draws on evidence from the immigrant health and travel medicine literature, with a focus on infectious disease risks. It presents strategies to reduce barriers to healthcare access through health promotion and screening programs both at the community and clinic level and the delivery of linguistically and culturally competent care. The Methods: Salud Entre Culturas (SEC) 'Health Between Cultures' project from the Tropical Medicine Unit at the Hospital Ramon y Cajal in Madrid is described as an effective model of care.

RESULTS

For those providing healthcare to migrant populations, the use of community-consulted approaches are considered best practice in the development of health education, health promotion and the delivery of targeted health services. At the clinic-level, strategies optimizing care for migrants include the use of bilingual healthcare professionals or community-based healthcare workers, cultural competence training of all clinic staff, the appropriate use of trained interpreters and the use of culturally appropriate health promotion materials.

CONCLUSIONS

Multifaceted strategies are needed to improve access, community knowledge, community engagement and healthcare provider training to provide appropriate care to migrant populations to reduce infectious disease disparities.

Spectrum of illness in migrants to Canada: sentinel surveillance through CanTravNet

BACKGROUND

Due to ongoing political instability and conflict in many parts of the world, migrants are increasingly seeking asylum and refuge in Canada.

METHODS

We examined demographic and travel correlates of illnesses among migrants to Canada to establish a detailed epidemiologic framework of this population for Canadian practitioners. Data on ill-returned Canadian travellers presenting to a CanTravNet site between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2015 were analyzed.

RESULTS

During the study period, 2415 ill travellers and migrants presented to a CanTravNet site, and of those, 519 (21.5%) travelled for the purpose of migration. Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 160, 30.8%), southeast Asia (n = 84, 16.2%) and south central Asia (n = 75, 14.5%) were the most common source regions for migrants, while the top specific source countries, of 98 represented, were the Philippines (n = 45, 8.7%), China (n = 36, 6.9%) and Vietnam (n = 31, 6.0%). Compared with non-migrant travellers, migrants were more likely to have a pre-existing immunocompromising medical condition, such as HIV or diabetes mellitus (P < 0.0001), and to require inpatient management of their illness (P < 0.0001). Diagnoses such as tuberculosis (n = 263, 50.7%), hepatitis B and C (n = 78, 15%) and HIV (n = 11, 2.1%) were over-represented in the migrant population compared with non-migrant travellers (P < 0.0001). Most cases of tuberculosis in the migrant population (n = 263) were latent (82% [n = 216]); only 18% (n = 47) were active.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with non-migrant travellers, migrants were more likely to present with a communicable infectious disease, such as tuberculosis, potentially complicated by an underlying immunosuppressing condition such as HIV. These differences highlight the divergent healthcare needs in the migrant population, and underscore the importance of surveillance programmes to understand their burden of illness. Intake programming should be adequately resourced to accommodate the medical needs of this vulnerable population of new Canadians.

Prospective case-control analysis of the aetiologies of acute undifferentiated fever in Vietnam

Acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) is frequently observed in tropical settings, but diagnosing the cause of AUF is often a challenge for local physicians and the physicians treating returning travellers. We conducted a case-control study in central Vietnam in 2016. A total of 378 febrile adult patients (AUFs) with a fever for ≤21 days, no evidence of localized infection and negative screening tests for dengue and malaria, and 384 afebrile adult patients (Controls) were prospectively enrolled. Whole blood, plasma, eschar swab, throat swab and urine specimens were collected and analysed. Quantitative PCR and RT-PCR were used to test for 55 bacteria, viruses and their subtypes. Serological tests were also used to test for rickettsial agents. The most common aetiology was influenza virus (20.9% in AUFs vs. 0% in Controls), followed by rickettsial agents (mainly Orientia tsutsugamushi and Rickettsia typhi) (10.8% vs. 0.3%), dengue virus (7.7% vs. 0.5%), Leptospira (4.8% vs. 0.8%), adenovirus (4.8% vs. 1.0%), and enterovirus (2.1% vs. 0%) (p < .05). The real proportion of dengue in AUF cases was underestimated because patients with dengue-positive rapid diagnosis tests were excluded from the study. The emerging agent Rickettsia felis, which had not been previously observed in Vietnam, was detected in this study. In total, 216 patients (57.1%) were given causative diagnoses, comprising 143 (66.2%) monoinfections and 73 (33.8%) coinfections. The infections caused by these agents should be considered in clinical practice and further studies. Additionally, agents susceptible to doxycycline were detected in 15.6% of AUFs; thus, this drug should be included in the panel used to treat AUF patients.

Zika virus differentially infects human neural progenitor cells according to their state of differentiation and dysregulates neurogenesis through the Notch pathway

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne Flavivirus that causes Zika disease with particular neurological complications, including Guillain-Barré Syndrome and congenital microcephaly. Although ZIKV has been shown to directly infect human neural progenitor cells (hNPCs), thereby decreasing their viability and growth, it is as yet unknown which of the cellular pathways involved in the disruption of neurogenesis are affected following ZIKV infection. By comparing the effect of two ZIKV strains in vitro on hNPCs, the differentiation process of the latter cells was found to lead to a decreased susceptibility to infection and cell death induced by each of the ZIKV strains, which was associated with an earlier and stronger antiviral innate immune response in infected, differentiated hNPCs, as compared to undifferentiated cells. Moreover, ZIKV modulated, both in hNPCs and in vivo in fetal brain in an experimental mouse model, the expression of the Notch pathway which is involved in cellular proliferation, apoptosis and differentiation during neurogenesis. These results show that the differentiation state of hNPCs is a significant factor contributing to the outcome of ZIKV infection and furthermore suggest that ZIKV infection might initiate early activation of the Notch pathway resulting in an abnormal differentiation process, implicated in ZIKV-induced brain injury.

Islands as Hotspots for Emerging Mosquito-Borne Viruses: A One-Health Perspective

During the past ten years, an increasing number of arbovirus outbreaks have affected tropical islands worldwide. We examined the available literature in peer-reviewed journals, from the second half of the 20th century until 2018, with the aim of gathering an overall picture of the emergence of arboviruses in these islands. In addition, we included information on environmental and social drivers specific to island setting that can facilitate the emergence of outbreaks. Within the context of the One Health approach, our review highlights how the emergence of arboviruses in tropical islands is linked to the complex interplay between their unique ecological settings and to the recent changes in local and global sociodemographic patterns. We also advocate for greater coordination between stakeholders in developing novel prevention and mitigation approaches for an intractable problem.

Widespread circulation of West Nile virus, but not Zika virus in southern Iran

West Nile virus (WNV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are mosquito-borne viral infections. Over the past few decades, WNV has been associated with several outbreaks involving high numbers of neuroinvasive diseases among humans. The recent re-emergence of ZIKV has been associated with congenital malformation and also with Guillain-Barre syndrome in adults. The geographic range of arthropod-borne viruses has been rapidly increasing in recent years. The objectives of this study were to determine the presence of IgG specific antibodies and the genome of WNV and ZIKV in human samples, as well as WNV and ZIKV genomes in wild-caught mosquitoes in urban and rural areas of the Hormozgan province, in southern Iran. A total of 494 serum samples were tested for the presence of WNV and ZIKV IgG antibodies using ELISA assays. One hundred and two (20.6%) samples were reactive for WNV IgG antibodies. All serum samples were negative for ZIKV IgG antibodies. Using the multivariable logistic analysis, age (45+ vs. 1-25; OR = 3.4, 95% C.I.: 1.8-6.3), occupation (mostly outdoor vs. mostly indoor; OR = 2.4, 95% C.I.: 1.1-5.2), and skin type(type I/II vs. type III/IV and type V/VI; OR = 4.3, 95% C.I.: 1.7-10.8 and OR = 2.7, 95% C.I.: 1.3-5.5 respectively, skin types based on Fitzpatrick scale) showed significant association with WNV seroreactivity. We collected 2,015 mosquitoes in 136 pools belonging to 5 genera and 14 species. Three pools of Culex pipiens complex were positive for WNV RNA using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rtRT-PCR). ZIKV RNA was not detected in any of the pools. All WNV ELISA reactive serum samples were negative for WNV RNA. In conclusion, we provided evidence of the establishment of WNV in southern Iran and no proof of ZIKV in serum samples or in mosquito vectors. The establishment of an organized arbovirus surveillance system and active case finding strategies seems to be necessary.

Incidence of Zika virus infection in a prospective cohort of Belgian travellers to the Americas in 2016

BACKGROUND

The incidence rate of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in travellers from non-endemic areas to the Americas during the ZIKV outbreak in 2016 is unknown.

METHODS

Belgian adults who planned to travel to South America, Central America, and the Caribbean were recruited prospectively to study the incidence and characteristics of ZIKV. Demographic data and sera were collected at baseline. Participants were trained to collect capillary blood on filter paper (BFP). When ill during travel, the participants completed a questionnaire and they sampled BFP for post-hoc analysis. All symptomatic participants were screened for ZIKV using ZIKV-specific RT-PCR on serum or urine, or BFP, and antibody detection assays (ELISA). Follow-up sera of asymptomatic travellers, obtained at least 20 days post travel, were tested by ZIKV ELISA only. All positive ELISA results were subject to confirmation by virus neutralization testing (VNT).

RESULTS

Forty-nine participants completed follow-up: 38 women and 11 men, with a median age of 32 years (range 19-64 years). Travel destinations were countries in South America (n=20), Central America (n=24), and the Caribbean (n=5). The total travel duration was 67.8 person-months. Illness was reported by 24 participants (49.0%). ZIKV infection was confirmed in nine cases, by RT-PCR (n=5) and by VNT (n=4). Only one of nine ZIKV cases (11.1%) was asymptomatic. The ZIKV incidence rate was 17.0% (95% confidence interval 7.8-32.2%) per month of travel.

CONCLUSIONS

The ZIKV incidence rate in adult travellers from non-endemic countries to the epidemic territories during the 2016 outbreak was high. Asymptomatic ZIKV infection was rare in this population.

Zika and the Eye: Pieces of a Puzzle

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arbovirus mainly transmitted to humans by mosquitoes from Aedes genus. Other ways of transmission include the perinatal and sexual routes, blood transfusion, and laboratory exposure. Although the first human cases were registered in 1952 in African countries, outbreaks were only reported since 2007, when entire Pacific islands were affected. In March 2015, the first cases of ZIKV acute infection were notified in Brazil and, to date, 48 countries and territories in the Americas have confirmed local mosquito-borne transmission of ZIKV. Until 2015, ZIKV infection was thought to only cause asymptomatic or mild exanthematous febrile infections. However, after explosive ZIKV outbreaks in Polynesia and Latin American countries, it was confirmed that ZIKV could also lead to Guillain-Barré syndrome and congenital birth abnormalities. These abnormalities, which can include neurologic, ophthalmologic, audiologic, and skeletal findings, are now considered congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). Brain abnormalities in CZS include cerebral calcifications, malformations of cortical development, ventriculomegaly, lissencephaly, hypoplasia of the cerebellum and brainstem. The ocular findings, which are present in up to 70% of infants with CZS, include iris coloboma, lens subluxation, cataract, congenital glaucoma, and especially posterior segment findings. Loss of retinal pigment epithelium, the presence of a thin choroid, a perivascular choroidal inflammatory infiltrate, and atrophic changes within the optic nerve were seen in histologic analyses of eyes from deceased fetuses. To date, there is no ZIKV licensed vaccines or antiviral therapies are available for treatment. Preventive measures include individual protection from mosquito bites, control of mosquito populations and the use of barriers measures such as condoms during sexual intercourse or sexual abstinence for couples either at risk or after confirmed infection. A literature review based on studies that analyzed ocular findings in mothers and infants with CZS, with or without microcephaly, was conducted and a theoretical pathophysiologic explanation for ZIKV-ocular abnormalities was formulated.

Human Mobility and the Global Spread of Infectious Diseases: A Focus on Air Travel

Greater human mobility, largely driven by air travel, is leading to an increase in the frequency and reach of infectious disease epidemics. Air travel can rapidly connect any two points on the planet, and this has the potential to cause swift and broad dissemination of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that may pose a threat to global health security. Investments to strengthen surveillance, build robust early-warning systems, improve predictive models, and coordinate public health responses may help to prevent, detect, and respond to new infectious disease epidemics.

Seroepidemiology of Dengue, Zika, and Yellow Fever Viruses among Children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Flaviviruses such as Zika, dengue, and yellow fever cause epidemics throughout the tropics and account for substantial global morbidity and mortality. Although malaria and other vector-borne diseases have long been appreciated in Africa, flavivirus epidemiology is incompletely understood. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, yellow fever continues to cause outbreaks and deaths, including at least 42 fatalities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2016. Here, we leveraged biospecimens collected as part of the nationally representative 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC to examine serological evidence of flavivirus infection or vaccination in children aged 6 months to 5 years. Even in this young stratum of the Congolese population, we find evidence of infection by dengue and Zika viruses based on results from enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and neutralization assay. Surprisingly, there was remarkable discordance between reported yellow fever vaccination status and results of serological assays. The estimated seroprevalences of neutralizing antibodies against each virus are yellow fever, 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.6-7.5%); dengue, 0.4% (0.1-0.9%); and Zika, 0.1% (0.0-0.5%). These results merit targeted, prospective studies to assess effectiveness of yellow fever vaccination programs, determine flavivirus seroprevalence across a broader age range, and investigate how these emerging diseases contribute to the burden of acute febrile illness in the DRC.

Zika in travellers 1947-2017: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Travellers contributed substantially to the rapid spread of Zika virus (ZIKV). They act as sentinel and may unmask ongoing ZIKV transmission in countries where outbreaks have not yet been reported. Our objectives were to (i) describe the burden of ZIKV infections in international travellers over time; (ii) estimate the proportion of birth defects as a result of maternal ZIKV infection in travellers; (iii) track the extent of sexual transmission; (iv) summarize ZIKV infections in returning travellers as reported by the GeoSentinel network; and (v) identify countries without reports on local ZIKV transmission where travellers served as sentinel.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review from 1947 to April 2017 on travel-associated ZIKV infections. We also compared published reports on autochthonous ZIKV transmission in Asia with published reports on exportations from travellers in Asia.

RESULTS

Of 314 papers that fit the inclusion criteria, 61 were eligible for final analysis. There was an exponential increase in the number of reported ZIKV infected travellers from the years 2013 to 2016, which declined in 2017. Amongst pregnant women with ZIKV infection, (5%) resulted in a fetus or infant with ZIKV-associated birth defects. An estimated 1% of the total number of ZIKV cases reported in the USA and Europe were acquired through sexual transmission. Through the GeoSentinel network, five countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cameroon) were identified as sentinel markers where ZIKV was exported despite the absence of reported local transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobility patterns and travel volumes can help to identify the most likely origin of importation, and also in predicting further propagation. Studies on pregnant returning travellers have contributed to a better understanding of the risk estimates of congenital Zika syndrome/microcephaly as a result of maternal ZIKV infection, and the relative contribution of sexual transmisison.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infections imported to Paris between 2009 and 2016: Characteristics and correlation with outbreaks in the French overseas territories of Guadeloupe and Martinique

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) infections are rapidly expanding across countries and are being diagnosed in returned travellers who represent epidemiological sentinels. The French Territories of America (FTA) such as Guadeloupe and Martinique see high levels of tourism and have experienced three consecutive outbreaks by these viruses in the last decade.

OBJECTIVE

This study was performed to evaluate how ill returned travellers could have represented epidemiological sentinels for these three expanding arboviral diseases over eight consecutive years. The degree of correlation between the cases of ill returned travellers arriving at a French tertiary hospital in Paris and the three outbreaks that occurred in the FTA during the study period was estimated.

METHODS

All consecutive ill returned travellers diagnosed at the hospital in Paris with imported DENV, CHIKV, or ZIKV infections from January 2009 to December 2016 were included. Epidemiological and clinical variables were evaluated. Data concerning the incidence of arboviruses in the FTA, as well as the temporal relationship between the occurrence of imported cases and outbreaks in the FTA, were analyzed.

RESULTS

Overall, 320 cases of arboviral infection were reported: 216 DENV, 68 CHIKV, and 36 ZIKV. Most of the patients presented with fever and exanthema. One hundred and fifteen patients were exposed in Guadeloupe or Martinique, which were the at-risk destinations in 25% of patients with DENV, 59% of patients with CHIKV, and 58% of patients with ZIKV. The occurrence of cases diagnosed in returning travellers followed the same time pattern as the outbreaks in these areas.

CONCLUSIONS

A temporal correlation was found between newly diagnosed imported cases of arboviruses and the three corresponding outbreaks that occurred in Martinique and Guadeloupe during 8 consecutive years. Thus, ill returned travellers act as epidemiological sentinels from the beginning up to the end of outbreaks occurring in touristic locations.

Detection of Zika virus using reverse-transcription LAMP coupled with reverse dot blot analysis in saliva

In recent years, there have been increasing numbers of infectious disease outbreaks that spread rapidly to population centers resulting from global travel, population vulnerabilities, environmental factors, and ecological disasters such as floods and earthquakes. Some examples of the recent outbreaks are the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-Co) in the Middle East, and the Zika outbreak through the Americas. We have created a generic protocol for detection of pathogen RNA and/or DNA using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and reverse dot-blot for detection (RDB) and processed automatically in a microfluidic device. In particular, we describe how a microfluidic assay to detect HIV viral RNA was converted to detect Zika virus (ZIKV) RNA. We first optimized the RT-LAMP assay to detect ZIKV RNA using a benchtop isothermal amplification device. Then we implemented the assay in a microfluidic device that will allow analyzing 24 samples simultaneously and automatically from sample introduction to detection by RDB technique. Preliminary data using saliva samples spiked with ZIKV showed that our diagnostic system detects ZIKV RNA in saliva. These results will be validated in further experiments with well-characterized ZIKV human specimens of saliva. The described strategy and methodology to convert the HIV diagnostic assay and platform to a ZIKV RNA detection assay provides a model that can be readily utilized for detection of the next emerging or re-emerging infectious disease.