How social capital helps communities weather the COVID-19 pandemic

Social trust and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: lessons in planning for future pandemics using data from the general social survey

BACKGROUND

The United States has lost many lives to COVID-19. The role of social capital and collective action has been previously explored in the context of COVID-19. The current study specifically investigates the role of social trust at the county level and COVID-19 mortality in the US, hypothesizing that counties with higher social trust will have lower COVID-19 mortality rates.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey (GSS). We collected COVID-19 mortality data from the COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University until October 31, 2021. We obtained county characteristics from the 2019 American Community Survey and supplemented this data source with additional publicly available county-level data, such as measures of income inequality and political leanings. We measured social trust as a single item from the GSS and calculated mean social trust in a county by pooling responses from 2002 to 2018. We then modeled the relationship between mean social trust and COVID-19 mortality.

RESULTS

Results indicate that counties with higher social trust have lower COVID-19 mortality rates. Higher values of mean social trust at the county level are associated with a decrease in COVID-19 mortality (b= -0.25, p-value < 0.001), after adjustment for confounding. The direction of association is consistent in a sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underscore the importance of investment in social capital and social trust. We believe these findings can be applied beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, as they demonstrate the potential for social trust as a method for emergency preparedness.

A social price to the rising cost of living? The bidirectional relationship between inflation and trust

This study examines whether social trust, the general belief that most people are honest and trustworthy, shapes perceptions of personal increases in cost of living and whether perceptions of increases in cost of living affect social trust. We analyze panel data from the Canadian Quality of Work and Economic Life Study (N = 2353) that was gathered between the fall of 2021 and spring of 2022, when inflation rose precipitously in Canada. Using a combination of entropy balancing and logistic regression, we estimate a statistically significant but weak causal effect of social trust on the perception of an increase in cost of living. The estimated causal effect of subjective inflation on declining trust is substantially larger. Additionally, financial strain does not moderate either estimated causal effect. In conclusion, rising inflation appears to not only threaten economic security-inflation also appears to harm the social fabric by depleting social trust.

Disparities and protective factors in pandemic-related mental health outcomes: a Louisiana-based study

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a wide-ranging impact on mental health. Diverse populations experienced the pandemic differently, highlighting pre-existing inequalities and creating new challenges in recovery. Understanding the effects across diverse populations and identifying protective factors is crucial for guiding future pandemic preparedness. The objectives of this study were to (1) describe the specific COVID-19-related impacts associated with general well-being, (2) identify protective factors associated with better mental health outcomes, and (3) assess racial disparities in pandemic impact and protective factors.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey of Louisiana residents was conducted in summer 2020, yielding a sample of 986 Black and White adults. The exposure was overall pandemic impact, measured using the Epidemic-Pandemic Impacts Inventory, and the outcome was general well-being (GWB), measured with the General Well-Being Schedule. Potential protective factors included social support, resilience, and social cohesion. Linear regression models were constructed to examine the association between pandemic impact and GWB, with each protective factor added as an effect modifier. These relationships were further assessed for differences by race.

Results

Pandemic stressors can be grouped into social, health, work, finance, and family-related impacts. Black persons displayed higher levels of pandemic impact as well as lower levels of social support, resilience, and social cohesion (p < 0.0001), highlighting existing racial disparities, though Black respondents and White respondents exhibited no differences in general-well being. Social support, resilience, and social cohesion were identified as protective factors for both groups (p < 0.0001, respectively), but these protective effects deteriorated as pandemic impacts increased. The addition of a pandemic impact by race interaction term was also significant in each model (p = 0.0020, p < 0.0001, and p = 0.0095, respectively) and showed that the protective effects of social support and resilience deteriorated more rapidly for Black persons than White persons, while the protective effects of social cohesion deteriorated more rapidly for White persons than Black persons.

Discussion

This study emphasizes the importance of psychosocial resources in buffering the mental health impact of pandemics. It also suggests greater vulnerability for marginalized communities lacking access to crucial support systems. Findings underscore the need for targeted interventions that bolster access to social support, promote resilience, and strengthen social cohesion, particularly within minority groups. Additionally, policymakers should consider proactive measures to assist in recovery and mitigate the disproportionate impact of future crises on vulnerable populations.

The effect of adaptive capacity on resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-country analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic's profound impacts on global health, driven by preparedness gaps and systemic risks, underscore the need to enhance societies' ability to manage both predictable risks and uncertainties inherent in disasters. While disaster research emphasises risk management for predictable threats and adaptive capacity for unexpected challenges, there is a lack of empirical examination of the impact of adaptive capacity on disaster resilience. This study addresses this gap by identifying three key adaptive capacities - quality of institutions, collaborative governance, and social capital - and examining their effects on COVID-19 resilience outcomes, measured by the ability to reduce excess mortality. Analysing secondary data from 129 nations using partial least squares structural equation modelling, the research finds significant positive effects of institutional quality and social capital on resilience outcomes. Conversely, collaborative governance shows a significant negative association, suggesting potentially intricate impacts beyond initial expectations. The findings highlight the need to enhance institutional quality and social capital to address preparedness gaps and unexpected challenges posed by biological hazards such as COVID-19. Future research should explore collaborative governance using a disaggregated approach that considers the roles of different stakeholders in various disaster phases.

Contribution

This study advances disaster research by presenting practical methodologies for operationalising adaptive capacities and empirically examining their effects on disaster resilience. For practitioners and policymakers, it highlights the need to adopt a long-term perspective in building disaster resilience, focussing on improving institutional quality and social capital to manage the uncertainties and complexities inherent in disaster scenarios effectively.

Social capital and changes of psychologic distress during early stage of COVID-19 in New orleans

Here we report on the relationship between measures of social capital, and their association with changes in self-reported measures of psychological distress during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze data from an existing cluster randomized control trial (the Healthy Neighborhoods Project) with 244 participants from New Orleans, Louisiana. Changes in self-reported scores between baseline (January 2019-March 2020) and participant's second survey (March 20, 2020, and onwards) are calculated. Logistic regression is employed to examine the association between social capital indicators and measures of psychological distress adjusting for key covariates and controlling for residential clustering effects. Participants reporting higher than average scores for social capital indicators are significantly less likely to report increases in psychosocial distress between pre and during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those who report higher than average sense of community were approximately 1.2 times less likely than those who report lower than average sense of community scores to experience increases in psychological distress before and during the global pandemic (OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.70,0.88, p ≤ 0.001), even after controlling for key covariates. Findings highlight the potentially important role that community social capital and related factors may play in the health of underrepresented populations during times of major stress. Specifically, the results suggest an important role of cognitive social capital and perceptions of community membership, belonging, and influence in buffering changes of mental health distress experienced during the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic among a sample of residents.

Why do democracies respond differently to COVID-19? A comparison of the United States and South Korea

Background

COVID-19 has posed severe challenges to crisis management in democracies. Different democracies respond to the crisis differently. This article proposes an analytical framework to explain why democracies respond differently to the public health crisis and how different contextual factors affect crisis response in democracies.

Methods

By comparing COVID-19 responses in the US and South Korea, this article conducts a comparative case study with a most similar system design. The two countries have been selected as cases because they are both developed democracies with a robust healthcare system. However, different contextual factors in the two countries have created different crisis responses by shaping different crisis leadership and political and social solidarity. This study collected data from different sources, including government documents, official websites, leaders' speeches, research reports, academic articles and news media. We tried to enhance the reliability of the data by comparing different data sources.

Results

We found that individual, institutional and cultural dimensions of contextual factors can influence different crisis responses of democratic countries by shaping crisis leadership and political and social solidarity. On the individual and institutional dimensions, leadership style and governance structure shape crisis leadership (sense making, decision making and coordinating, and meaning making), which in turn influences crisis management. On the cultural dimension, political and social solidarity measured by political polarization and social cooperation are shaped by cultural and social norms.

Conclusion

Our findings indicate that democracies require strong crisis leadership and a high degree of political and social solidarity to tackle public health crises. A centralized and coordinated system, as well as a political elite leadership style shaped by rich crisis response experience, expertise and high sensitivity to crises are conducive to crisis management. Fostering a cultural and social norm that facilitates state-society collaboration can promote crisis management. These findings provide valuable insights for decision-makers to effectively respond to future pandemics.

Social Capital and Willingness to Comply With Anti-Pandemic Government Intervention

This study examines the relationship between individual-level social capital and compliance attitudes toward health protective measures in the context of COVID-19. We drew on secondary population-based data fielded during the pandemic's initial phase (April - June of 2020). The analytic sample consists of 9124 older American adults (ages 55 and over) across 18 U.S. States and Metropolitan Statistical Areas. We estimated mixed-effects models with random intercepts and slopes. People who are better socially connected are more willing to comply with anti-pandemic government intervention. This relationship is stronger among those who are more psychologically distressed. Its magnitude also increases in more densely populated areas and places with higher numbers of coronavirus infection. Older Americans' anti-coronavirus compliance attitudes is significantly driven by preexisting interpersonal connectedness and civic engagement. The role of social capital is also contingent on the existing levels of risk factor (threat and vulnerability).

Communicating science in the COVID-19 news in the UK during Omicron waves: exploring representations of nature of science with epistemic network analysis

News media plays a vital role in communicating scientific evidence to the public during the COVID-19 pandemic. Such communication is important for convincing the public to follow social distancing guidelines and to respond to health campaigns such as vaccination programmes. However, newspapers were criticised that they focus on the socio-political perspective of science, without explaining the nature of scientific works behind the government's decisions. This paper examines the connections of the nature of science categories in the COVID-19 era by four local newspapers in the United Kingdom between November 2021 to February 2022. Nature of science refers to different aspects of how science works such as aims, values, methods and social institutions of science. Considering the news media may mediate public information and perception of scientific stories, it is relevant to ask how the various British newspapers covered aspects of science during the pandemic. In the period explored, Omicron variant was initially a variant of concern, and an increasing number of scientific evidence showed that the less severity of this variant might move the country from pandemic to endemic. We explored how news articles communicate public health information by addressing how science works during the period when Omicron variants surge. A novel discourse analysis approach, epistemic network analysis is used to characterise the frequency of connections of categories of the nature of science. The connection between political factors and the professional activities of scientists, as well as that with scientific practices are more apparent in left-populated and centralist outlets than in right-populated news outlets. Among four news outlets across the political spectrum, a left-populated newspaper, the Guardian, is not consistent in representing relations of different aspects of the nature of scientific works across different stages of the public health crisis. Inconsistency of addressing aspects of scientific works and a downplay of the cognitive-epistemic nature of scientific works likely lead to failure in trust and consumption of scientific knowledge by the public in the healthcare crisis.

Social capital and loneliness among older adults in community dwellings and nursing homes in Zhejiang Province of China

Background

Loneliness is an important problem afflicting the health of older adults, and has been proven to be associated with social capital. Previous research in China rarely investigated the differences of social capital and loneliness between older adults living in community dwellings and nursing homes. This study aims to examine the status of social capital and loneliness among older adults living in community dwellings and nursing homes, and analyze the relationship between them.

Methods

A total of 1,278 older adults were recruited for the study from the cities of Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Lishui in Zhejiang Province of China from July to October 2021 by using multi-stage stratified random sampling. Questionnaires were used to collect data on the participants' sociodemographic characteristics, social capital, and loneliness. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to examine the relationship between social capital and loneliness. The interaction of social capital and institutionalization on loneliness was also explored.

Results

Compared with community-dwelling older adults, institutionalized older adults had higher levels of loneliness and lower degrees of social support, social connection, trust, cohesion, and reciprocity. A further analysis of the social capital showed that low levels of social support, trust, and cohesion were related to high levels of loneliness among adults in both community dwellings and nursing homes. Social connection was negatively correlated with loneliness among older adults living in community dwellings. Institutionalization itself demonstrated a strong effect on loneliness.

Conclusion

Health-related policies should help older adults gain more social support, trust and cohesion to alleviate their loneliness. This is particularly crucial for older adults living in nursing homes, as they have higher levels of loneliness and lower levels of social capital than noninstitutionalized older adults.

In it Together: Sense of Community and Psychologic Distress During COVID-19

We assessed the relationship between differences in indicators of social capital before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and their association with self-reported measures of psychological distress. The data was analyzed from an existing cluster randomized control trial (the Healthy Neighborhoods Project ) with 244 participants from New Orleans, Louisiana. Differences in self-reported scores between baseline (January 2019-March 2020) and participant's second survey (March 20, 2020, and onwards) were calculated. Logistic regression was employed to examine the association between social capital indicators and measures of psychological distress adjusting for key covariates and controlling for residential clustering effects. Participants who reported higher than average scores for social capital indicators were significantly less likely to report increases in psychosocial distress between pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Those who reported higher-than-average sense of community were approximately 1.2 times less likely than those who reported lower than average sense of community scores to experience increases in psychological distress before and during the global pandemic (OR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.70,0.88, p ≤ 0.001), even after controlling for key covariates. Findings highlight the potentially important role that community social capital and related factors may play in the health of underrepresented populations during times of major stress. Specifically, the results suggest an important role of cognitive social capital and perceptions of community membership, belonging, and influence in buffering changes of mental health distress experienced during the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic among a population that is majority Black and female.

Emergent Social Capital during the Coronavirus Pandemic in the United States in Hispanics/Latinos

The coronavirus pandemic has drastically impacted many groups that have been socially and economically marginalized such as Hispanics/Latinos in the United States (U.S.). Our aim was to understand how bonding social capital, bridging social capital, and trust played a role in Hispanics/Latinos over the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as explore the negative consequences of social capital. We performed focus group discussions via Zoom (n = 25) between January and December 2021 with Hispanics/Latinos from Baltimore, MD, Washington, DC, and New York City, NY. Our findings suggest that Hispanics/Latinos experienced bridging and bonding social capital. Of particular interest was how social capital permeated the Hispanic/Latino community's socioeconomic challenges during the pandemic. The focus groups revealed the importance of trust and its role in vaccine hesitancy. Additionally, the focus groups discussed the dark side of social capital including caregiving burden and spread of misinformation. We also identified the emergent theme of racism. Future public health interventions should invest in social capital, especially for groups that have been historically marginalized or made vulnerable, and consider the promotion of bonding and bridging social capital and trust. When prospective disasters occur, public health interventions should support vulnerable populations that are overwhelmed with caregiving burden and are susceptible to misinformation.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the social sphere and lessons for crisis management: a literature review

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most difficult challenge that has affected humanity in recent decades. It has disrupted many features of development with domino effects in the social sphere. This study reviews the literature on the social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies the affected social areas that have undergone dramatic changes during the pandemic. We use inductive content analysis and thematic analysis to review the literature. The results show that there are seven major areas that have been negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic: health, social vulnerability, education, social capital, social relationships, social mobility, and social welfare. The literature has reported dramatic psychological and emotional effects, exacerbation of segregation and poverty, disruption in educational systems and formation of an information gap, as well as a declining trends of social capital among communities. We highlight some lessons that can be learned from the pandemic to enhance social resilience in future. Among others, to effectively respond to the pandemic and other potential future adverse events, governments should adopt fair policies, identify the required changes in the socially affected contexts and take necessary responsive actions, and adopt collaboratively designed approaches to increase social resilience.

The impact of informal and formal care disruption on older adults' psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in UK

This paper investigates how formal and informal caregiving disruptions-due to the U.K. government's non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus-may have affected the likelihood of psychological distress among older individuals. We model the association between disruption of formal and informal care and mental health of the elderly during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic using a recursive simultaneous - equation model for binary variables. Our findings reveal that public interventions, which are most essential for reducing the pandemic spread, influenced the provision of formal and informal care. The lack of adequate long-term care following the COVID-19 outbreak has also had negative repercussions on the psychological well-being of these adults.

The moderating role of Covid-19-related support on urban livelihood capitals: Evidence from suburban Accra

In the Global South, the COVID-19 crisis has compelled varied efforts to quickly address the pandemic's impact on urban livelihoods. Families, friends as well as public, private, and civil society organizations have mobilized various resources to avert the pandemic's onslaught on the survival of the urban vulnerable. Indeed, there is a burgeoning ‘pandemic urban scholarship’ that shed insights on COVID-19 risks, local responses, and impacts on everyday urban life. Yet, it is unclear how many of these responses are affecting urban livelihoods. This paper thus investigates the impact of COVID-19 on urban livelihood capitals (financial, human, social, and physical) and analyses the moderating role of COVID-19-related support (from families, friends, government agencies, faith-based and non-governmental organizations) to address the pandemic's impact on these capitals. Drawing on a quantitative study in Adenta Municipality of the Greater Accra Region, Ghana, the study finds a negative association between COVID-19 impacts and all urban livelihood capitals. Crucially, COVID-19-related support only reduced the negative impact of the pandemic on financial capital, and not on the other forms of capital. The study suggests that building post-pandemic community resilience warrants the need to transition from the usual reactive, fragmented support to integrated, holistic, and contextually embedded long-term strategies that consider the multi-dimensionality of everyday urban life.

Role of social capital in response to and recovery from the first wave of COVID-19 in Thailand: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

This study assesses the role of social capital among people and communities in response to the first wave of the pandemic in 2020.

DESIGN

Qualitative study using focus group discussions.

SETTING

Capital city (Bangkok) and the four regions (north, northeast, south and central) of Thailand.

PARTICIPANTS

161 participants of 19 focus groups with diverse backgrounds in terms of gender, profession, education and geography (urban/rural; regions). They are selected for different levels of impact from the pandemic.

FINDINGS

The solidarity among the Thai people was a key contributing factor to societal resilience during the pandemic. Findings illustrate how three levels of social capital structure-family, community and local networks-mobilised resources from internal and external social networks to support people affected by the pandemic. The results also highlight different types of resources mobilised from the three levels of social capital, factors that affect resilience, collective action to combat the negative impacts of the pandemic, and the roles of social media and gender.

CONCLUSION

Social capital plays significant roles in the resilience of individuals, households and communities to respond to and recover from the impacts of the pandemic. In many instances, social capital is a faster and more efficient response than other kinds of formal support. Social capital can be enhanced by interactions and exchanges in the communities. While face-to-face social contacts are challenged by the need for social distancing and travel restrictions, social media steps in as alternative socialisation to enhance social capital.

The effects of department of Veterans Affairs medical centers on socio-economic outcomes: Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program

Do medical facilities also help advance improvements in socio-economic outcomes? We focus on Veterans, a vulnerable group over the COVID-19 pandemic who have access to a comprehensive healthcare network, and the receipt of funds from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) between April and June as a source of variation. First, we find that Veterans received 3.5% more loans and 6.8% larger loans than their counterparts (p < 0.01), controlling for a wide array of zipcode characteristics. Second, we develop models to predict the number of PPP loans awarded to Veterans, finding that the inclusion of local VA medical center characteristics adds almost as much explanatory power as the industry and occupational composition in an area and even more than the education, race, and age distribution combined. Our results suggest that VA medical centers can play an important role in helping Veterans thrive even beyond addressing their direct medical needs.

Machine-learning approaches to identify determining factors of happiness during the COVID-19 pandemic: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate determining factors of happiness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Large online surveys in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

PARTICIPANTS

A random sample of 25 482 individuals who are representatives of the Japanese population.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Self-reported happiness measured using a 10-point Likert scale, where higher scores indicated higher levels of happiness. We defined participants with ≥8 on the scale as having high levels of happiness.

RESULTS

Among the 25 482 respondents, the median score of self-reported happiness was 7 (IQR 6-8), with 11 418 (45%) reporting high levels of happiness during the pandemic. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that meaning in life, having a spouse, trust in neighbours and female gender were positively associated with happiness (eg, adjusted OR (aOR) for meaning in life 4.17; 95% CI 3.92 to 4.43; p<0.001). Conversely, self-reported poor health, anxiety about future household income, psychiatric diseases except depression and feeling isolated were negatively associated with happiness (eg, aOR for self-reported poor health 0.44; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.48; p<0.001). Using machine-learning methods, we found that meaning in life and social capital (eg, having a spouse and trust in communities) were the strongest positive determinants of happiness, whereas poor health, anxiety about future household income and feeling isolated were important negative determinants of happiness. Among 6965 subjects who responded to questionnaires both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no systemic difference in the patterns as to determinants of declined happiness during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

Using machine-learning methods on data from large online surveys in Japan, we found that interventions that have a positive impact on social capital as well as successful pandemic control and economic stimuli may effectively improve the population-level psychological well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Social capital and the COVID-19 pandemic threat: The Russian experience

Social capital is an important resource for the wellbeing of both the individual and society. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many studies have been conducted to explore the role of social capital in coping with the negative consequences of the pandemic. However, how the pandemic itself can affect the social capital of people has yet to be studied. Try to fill this gap, we aimed at testing the association between the individually perceived coronavirus threat and such indicators of social capital as general social trust, institutional trust, and the quality of various types of people's social relationships (with family, friends, colleagues, neighbors, residents of a locality, residents of a country). Data were collected in different regions of the Russian Federation for a convenience sample of 500 respondents. The study found that the individually perceived coronavirus threat was positively associated with institutional trust, but not with general social trust. Moreover, this covariation was moderated by age: an institutional trust-threat relation emerged only in older respondents with an average age of around 60, but not in younger participants. Furthermore, the study found that perceived coronavirus threat was associated with closer relationships in the family, but simultaneously with an increased distance in relations with neighbors and residents of the respondents' locality. In summary, the study indicated that "strong" ties (i.e., with family, colleagues, and friends) either remained unchanged or were intensified in the face of the pandemic threat, whereas "weak" ties (i.e., with neighbors, residents of the same locality, and fellow citizens) tended to weaken even more.

A Mental Wealth perspective: crossing disciplines to understand the value of collective mental and social assets in the post-COVID-19 era

BACKGROUND

A reconceptualised global strategy is key as nations begin to shift from crisis management to medium- and long-term planning to rebuild and strengthen their economic, social and public health systems. Efforts towards measuring, modelling, and forecasting Mental Wealth could serve as the catalyst for this reconceptualization. The Mental Wealth approach builds systemic resilience through investments which promote collective cognitive and emotional wellbeing. This paper presents the theoretical foundations for Mental Wealth. It presents, for the first time, literature across the disciplines of health and social sciences, economics, business, and humanities to underpin the development of an operational metric of Mental Wealth.

DISCUSSION

An approach which embeds social and psychological dimensions of prosperity, alongside the economic, is needed to inform the effective allocation of investments in the post-pandemic world. The authors advocate for a transdisciplinary framework of Mental Wealth to be applied in innovating population-level policy interventions to address the growing challenges brought on by COVID-19. Mental Wealth highlights the value generated by the deployment of collective mental assets and supporting social infrastructure. In order to inform this position, a review of the literature on the concepts underpinning Mental Wealth is presented, limitations of current measurement tools of mental and social resources are evaluated, and a framework for development of a Mental Wealth metric is proposed.

CONCLUSION

There are challenges in developing an operational Mental Wealth metric. The breadth of conceptual foundations to be considered is extensive, and there may be a lack of agreement on the appropriate tools for its measurement. While variability across current measurement approaches in social resources, wellbeing and mental assets contributes to the difficulty creating a holistic and generic metric, these variations are now clearer. The operationalisation of the Mental Wealth metric will require comprehensive mapping of the elements to be included against the data available.

Examining the Complex (Curvilinear and Contingent) Associations between Social Distancing Compliance and Subjective Health during a Global Health Crisis

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated a potential curvilinear link between social distancing behavior and subjective health in later life. It also evaluated whether food insecurity and community social capital moderated the focal relationship.

METHODS

Data were drawn from three waves of the COVID Impact Survey (N = 19,234). Mixed-effects models were fitted.

RESULTS

Social distancing has a non-monotonic (U-shaped) relationship with subjective health, i.e., individuals with low and high levels of social distancing show relatively better health. Moreover, the negative linear relationship between social distancing and health is weaker among people suffering from food insecurity as well as those living in communities with lower stocks of social capital.

DISCUSSION

This study sheds new light on the health implications of social distancing during the pandemic. Our findings dovetail with the steeling hypothesis, i.e., that social distancing is less harmful for U.S. older adults exposed to prior stressful or vulnerable conditions.

Social capital and willingness to participate in COVID-19 vaccine trials: an Italian case-control study

BACKGROUND

What leads healthy people to enter in a volunteer register for clinical trials? This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the decision to volunteer in clinical trials for a COVID-19 vaccine and social capital, in a sample of healthy volunteers in Italy. Since social capital is characterized by trust, reciprocity, and social and political participation, we claim that it is key in leading individuals to actively take action to protect public health, and to take a risk for the (potential) benefit not only of themselves but for the entire community.

METHODS

This study was conducted through the administration of a questionnaire to healthy volunteers registered for a phase 1 clinical trial for a COVID-19 vaccine in the Unit Research Centre of ASST-Monza, in September 2020. The primary purpose of a phase 1 study is to evaluate the safety of a new drug candidate before it proceeds to further clinical studies. To approximate a case-control study, we randomly matched the 318 respondents to healthy volunteers (cases) with 318 people randomly selected by Round 9 of the European Social Survey (controls), using three variables, which we considered to be associated with the decision to volunteer: gender, age, and education level. To execute this matching procedure, we used the "ccmatch" module in STATA.

RESULTS

The findings highlight the positive impact of social capital in the choice of healthy individuals to volunteer in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials. Controlling for possible confounding factors, some exemplary results show that people with a high level of general trust have a greater likelihood of volunteering compared to people with low trust (OR = 2.75, CI = 1.58-4.77); we also found that it is more probable that volunteers are people who have actively taken action to improve things compared with people who have not (for individuals who did three or more actions: OR = 7.54, CI = 4.10-13.86). People who reported voting (OR = 3.91, CI = 1.70-8.99) and participating in social activities more than other people of their age (OR = 2.89, CI = 1.82-4.60) showed a higher probability to volunteer.

CONCLUSIONS

Together with the adoption of urgent health measures in response to COVID-19, government policymakers should also promote social capital initiatives to encourage individuals to actively engage in actions aimed at protecting collective health. Our findings make an empirical contribution to the research on vaccines and its intersection with social behaviour, and they provide useful insights for policymakers to manage current and future disease outbreaks and to enhance the enrolment in vaccine trials.

Invited discussant comments during the UCL-Penn Global COVID Study webinar 'Alone Together: Loneliness Research and Social Health Innovation in Lockdown and Beyond'

The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has influenced people's social relationships around the world in surprising ways. It has also underscored the importance of and accelerated innovation in solutions for social isolation and loneliness. This commentary offers takeaways from emerging research findings and a wide lens on the societal movement underway to create more socially connected communities.

Socioeconomic stratification and trajectories of social trust during COVID-19

Extant theory suggests that crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic may change people's trust in others. A crisis-to-solidarity model suggests that people become more trusting, while a crisis-to-negative experience theory suggests that people lose trust, and a stability perspective predicts that social trust will largely remain unchanged. We argue that, when a crisis occurs, trust is likely to fall into distinct trajectories of change that will conform to these different perspectives, and placement into contrasting trajectories of change will be predicated on socioeconomic position. To test our argument, we use data from multiple waves of Canadian national surveys conducted from September 2019 to February 2021 and examine how two major forms of social trust-generalized trust and neighborhood trust-changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. A longitudinal latent class analysis (LLCA) shows increasing, decreasing, and stable trajectories of trust, which conform to each of the proposed patterns. We further show that individuals' baseline socioeconomic position is a strong indicator of the placement in these trajectories. Both forms of trust increased among individuals with higher socioeconomic positions while decreased among individuals with lower socioeconomic positions. This research contributes to the literature on the social context of trust by reconciling contrasting views of the consequences of crises for trust, and also in showing that the segmentation of changes in trust are proscribed by structures of social stratification.

Racial concentration and dynamics of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States

This article considers how county-level concentrations of Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites are associated with COVID-19 vaccination differently. I argue that racially specific mechanisms-differential concentrations of social vulnerability and political ideology by race-are likely to create diverse associations between racial concentration and COVID-19 vaccination not only across racial groups but also within racial groups over time from early rollout to the time after COVID-19 vaccines became widely available. I test this argument by drawing on data from multiple sources that include county-level information on COVID-19 vaccination rates, racial population make-ups, and measures of political ideology and community vulnerability. Results show that the association between racial concentration and COVID-19 vaccination changes substantially across and within racial groups over time. Counties with higher percent of Asians and percent of Whites have higher vaccination rates at earlier time intervals whereas counties with higher percent of Latinos and percent of Blacks show lower vaccination rates. This trend flips at later dates for percent of Blacks, percent of Latinos, and percent of Whites. Results from multilevel regression models and mediation analysis controlling for vaccine hesitancy show that social vulnerability and political ideology are the underlying factors and their differential associations with diverse racial concentrations help create the racially specific and time-varying patterns.

Prosociality predicts individual behavior and collective outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic induces a social dilemma: engaging in preventive health behaviors is costly for individuals but generates benefits that also accrue to society at large. The extent to which individuals internalize the social impact of their actions may depend on their prosociality, i.e. the willingness to behave in a way that mostly benefits other people. We conduct a nationally representative online survey in Germany (n = 5843) to investigate the role of prosociality in reducing the spread of COVID-19 during the second coronavirus wave. At the individual level, higher prosociality is strongly positively related to compliance with public health behaviors such as mask wearing and social distancing. A one standard deviation (SD) increase in prosociality is associated with a 0.3 SD increase in compliance (p < 0.01). At the regional (NUTS-2) level, a one SD higher average prosociality is associated with an 11% lower weekly incidence rate (p < 0.01), and a 2%p lower weekly growth rate (p < 0.01) of COVID-19 cases, controlling for a host of demographic and socio-economic factors. This association is driven by higher compliance with public health behaviors in regions with higher prosociality. Our correlational results thus support the common notion that voluntary behavioral change plays a vital role in fighting the pandemic and, more generally, that social preferences may determine collective action outcomes of a society.

Salir Adelante: Social capital and resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic in Argentina

The Covid-19 pandemic has stimulated new appraisals of how social cohesion, including neighborhood-level social capital, fosters resilience in the face of crisis. Several studies suggest better health outcomes in neighborhoods with higher level of social capital, in general and during the pandemic. Building on a growing body of research which suggests that those who live in close-knit neighborhoods have fared better during the pandemic, this article analyzes how social capital influences individual and collective perceptions and attitudes about the experiences of the Covid-19 pandemic in Tucumán, Argentina. To assess this question, we used a mixed-methods approach, combining focus groups, semi-structured interviews, and an online survey (n = 701 respondents) conducted in September 2021. We find widespread experiences of resilience in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, in spite of difficult socioeconomic conditions and perceived poor government performance. Results from logistic regression analysis indicate that perceptions of high neighborhood social capital are associated with more positive outcomes in many dimensions, including personal resilience, ability to cope with uncertainty, perceptions of community solidarity, and reported compliance with public health measures. We further argue that conceptualizations of social cohesion need to be adjusted to local or national-level cultural norms to accurately capture the experience of countries of the Global South.

Did States With More Social Capital Pre-pandemic Offer Mental Health Protection During the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Cross-Sectional View

Background

Social capital is a well-known health determinant with both relational and geographic aspects. It can help mitigate adverse events and has been shown to impact behaviors and responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mental health has declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, and social capital, may serve to buffer those declines.

Methods

Building from this, we assessed whether pre-pandemic social capital and contemporaneous social policy, which included indicators of social trust, civic participation, and presence of mask mandates, affected pandemic mental health, measured as the percent of the population experiencing symptoms of depression and anxiety at the state level.

Results

Generalized social trust and state mask mandates were significantly associated with lower levels of depression and anxiety. Conversely, states with greater civic engagement prior to the pandemic experienced more anxiety and depression.

Conclusions

Findings suggest that existing social capital, particularly social trust, may protect against anxiety and depression and contribute to community resilience during times of adversity. States should invest in policies and programs that increase social trust.

The societal responses to COVID-19: Evidence from the G7 countries

This paper provides a picture of how societies in the G7 countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our point of departure is to examine the effects of the pandemic in terms of four fundamental normative sources for well-being: Solidarity (S; willingness for social cooperation), Agency (A; empowerment to shape one's prospects through one's own efforts), GDP (G), and Environmental Performance (E)-SAGE for short. The normative foundations of SAGE are communitarianism, classical liberalism, materialistic utilitarianism, and ecoethics. We find that although G and E responded predictably and uniformly to the pandemic (such as G declining and carbon emissions improving), the societal responses were strikingly different. Societies that are cohesive and empowered (high S and A) may be expected to cope with the pandemic better than those that are fragmented and disempowered (low S and A). Furthermore, the pandemic has had diverse effects on S and A; while some societies became cohering and empowering (rising S and A), others became fragmenting and disempowering (falling S and A), and yet others became fragmenting and empowering. We also show that most G7 countries experienced greater tribalization (measured as the difference between inward S and outward S) during the pandemic. These trends are a matter of concern since they suggest that the willingness and perceived ability to address collective challenges collectively have waned. The analysis also suggests that governments' social policies may have an important role to play alongside economic and health policies in coping with the pandemic.

Jabbing together? The complementarity between social capital, formal public health rules, and COVID-19 vaccine rates in the United States

COVID-19 vaccine rates provide a unique opportunity to explore vaccine hesitancy and potential interactions between social capital and individual, normative values, namely for public health and/or personal freedom. While economists and public health scholars realize the independent effects social capital and stringent public health rules have on prevalence and mortality rates, few recognize how these factors influence vaccination rates. We advance this literature with a novel framework to analyze these interactions. With county-level data on COVID-19 vaccinations, social capital, and measures of the values people have for personal freedom and public health, we find that vaccination rates depend on individual values, the level of social capital, and the interaction between the two. Social capital mediates the values people hold dear, which can influence vaccination rates in positive and negative ways. Our results are robust to the inclusion of relevant controls and under multiple specifications. These results suggest that individuals and the communities people enter into and exit out of play an important role in decisions to vaccinate, which are independent of formal, governmental public health measures.

Better Late Than Never: Predictors of Delayed COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in Poland

In this study, regression models were created to explain the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rates in 378 Polish sub-regions. In order to trace the factors that could explain the willingness to delay vaccination, vaccination rates were compared for age groups of 20 years and more for 30 June 2020 and 31 January 2021. Initially high vaccination rates, rather than leading to the gradual exhaustion of the pool of those wishing to get vaccinated, were a very good predictor of the share of the remainder willing to do so, which increased the divergence between sub-regions in nominal vaccination rates. Support for Eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties was a strong predictor of persistent vaccine hesitancy. Ideological divergence from the mainstream appeared to reinforce vaccine hesitancy, and this relationship remained highly relevant even when controlling for possible time or spatial lag. Markers of social inclusion and social capital—voter turnout and employment rate—remained statistically significant even when controlling for time lag, thus implying clear relevance of trust in the public message. The share of the population with higher education remained a highly relevant factor as well, though in the 20–39 age bracket it predicted a higher vaccination rate, while in all older brackets it was a negative predictor—this implies that those people had already made up their minds. Delaying vaccination seems predominantly explainable by political views, as well as social exclusion and the historical specificity of sub-regions. On a regional level, there was actually a paradoxical Spearmans Rho correlation (0.641) between the share of population refusing mandatory vaccination for kids and the percentage of people receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, which further undermines the idea that overall observed vaccine hesitancy was in any meaningful way affected by anti-vaccine movements.

Better Late Than Never: Predictors of Delayed COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in Poland

In this study, regression models were created to explain the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rates in 378 Polish sub-regions. In order to trace the factors that could explain the willingness to delay vaccination, vaccination rates were compared for age groups of 20 years and more for 30 June 2020 and 31 January 2021. Initially high vaccination rates, rather than leading to the gradual exhaustion of the pool of those wishing to get vaccinated, were a very good predictor of the share of the remainder willing to do so, which increased the divergence between sub-regions in nominal vaccination rates. Support for Eurosceptic and anti-establishment parties was a strong predictor of persistent vaccine hesitancy. Ideological divergence from the mainstream appeared to reinforce vaccine hesitancy, and this relationship remained highly relevant even when controlling for possible time or spatial lag. Markers of social inclusion and social capital—voter turnout and employment rate—remained statistically significant even when controlling for time lag, thus implying clear relevance of trust in the public message. The share of the population with higher education remained a highly relevant factor as well, though in the 20–39 age bracket it predicted a higher vaccination rate, while in all older brackets it was a negative predictor—this implies that those people had already made up their minds. Delaying vaccination seems predominantly explainable by political views, as well as social exclusion and the historical specificity of sub-regions. On a regional level, there was actually a paradoxical Spearmans Rho correlation (0.641) between the share of population refusing mandatory vaccination for kids and the percentage of people receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, which further undermines the idea that overall observed vaccine hesitancy was in any meaningful way affected by anti-vaccine movements.

Understanding the influence of political orientation, social network, and economic recovery on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among Americans

The COVID-19 pandemic poses unprecedented risks to the well-being of Americans. To control the pandemic, a sufficient proportion of the population needs to be vaccinated promptly. Despite the proven efficacy and widespread availability, vaccine distribution and administration rates remain low. Thus, it is important to understand the public behavior of COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to identify determinants at multiple levels that promote or inhibit one's vaccine uptake. We combine individual-level data from a national survey conducted in the summer of 2021 with corresponding state-level indicators. Findings of multilevel logistic regression show that political orientation, social network, and economic recovery altogether have significant influence. We articulate that individual decision to take the vaccine are a function of their personal characteristics and are also rooted in their home state's political, public health, and economic contexts. These findings contribute to the literature and have policy implications. Knowledge of the profiles among people who take/refuse the vaccine provides essential information to leverage certain factors and maximize vaccine uptake to mitigate the pandemic's devastating impact.

An Analysis of the Willingness to the COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots among Urban Employees: Evidence from a Megacity H in Eastern China

Many studies have shown that urban workers may have a higher acceptance rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine uptake compared to their rural counterparts. As Omicron spreads globally, the COVID-19 booster vaccination has been acknowledged as the primary strategy against this variant. In this study, we identify factors related to the willingness of workers in megacities to take the vaccine booster shots and their main reasons accounting for their booster willingness. This research survey was conducted in megacity H in eastern China, and a total of 1227 employees from different industries were interviewed. The study at hand examines the relationship between various characteristics (including both economic and non-economic factors) of urban employees and their intention/desire to accept the COVID-19 booster shoots. The survey results show that some characteristics, namely work organization, vaccine knowledge, and social network, affect their intention to take COVID-19 vaccine booster shots. Urban employees with a strong work organization, a high degree of vaccine knowledge, and a dense social capital are more likely to receive booster injections than other employees. Therefore, work organization, vaccine knowledge, and social networks provide fundamental entry points for designing enhanced injection strategies to increase the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines among employees in megacities.

COVID-19 behavioral health and quality of life

In addition to concern about physical health consequences of COVID-19, many researchers also note the concerning impact on behavioral health and quality of life due to disruption. The purpose of this paper is to explore pathways of COVID-19 behavioral health and quality of life. We found increased anxiety, depression, and alcohol misuse and that the pandemic exacerbated prior problems. Further community indicators also lead to poorer behavioral health and overall decreased quality of life. The nature of COVID-19 and vast reach of the virus suggests that behavioral health concerns should take a primary role in pandemic recovery.

Social Capital, Technological Empowerment, and Resilience in Rural China

In the post-pandemic era, the need for resilient and flexible COVID-19 prevention strategies in rural areas has become increasingly prominent. Based on a sample of 2229 rural residents nationwide, the Structural Equation Model was adopted to analyze the influence of social capital and technological empowerment on pandemic resilience in rural areas. The proportion of diversity, adequacy, and effectiveness of pandemic prevention measures taken by communities was about 57%. Social capital (0.667) and technological empowerment (0.325) had a significant positive impact on rural resilience and pandemic prevention. Social capital plays a mediating role between technological empowerment and pandemic resilience in rural areas. The risk of disease in society stimulates the inherent social capital factors in villages, with the individual social network generating strong social support. Technological empowerment can not only provide new methods for the connection of social capital, but also bring new means for rural authorities to improve their governance capabilities. Social trust in social capital plays an important role in rural resilience and pandemic prevention. The indirect effect of technological empowerment through social capital on pandemic resilience is greater than its direct effect. Social capital construction is the key to rural resilience and pandemic prevention.

Social Capital and COVID-19 Deaths: An Ecological Analysis in Japan

Social contextual factors could determine mortality by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with social capital as a potential determinant. This study aimed to examine the association between prefecture-level social capital and COVID-19 deaths in Japan. Data on the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 individuals between 1 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 in 47 prefectures were obtained from the government open-access database. Prefecture-level social capital was collected from a large-scale web-based nationwide survey conducted between August and September 2020. We included trust in neighbors, norm of reciprocity in the neighborhood, and trust in the national government as cognitive social capital, and neighborhood ties and social participation as structural social capital. The cumulative COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 individuals (1 October 2020 to 30 June 2021) ranged from 0.15 to 27.98 in 47 prefectures. A multiple regression analysis after adjusting for covariates showed that a greater norm of reciprocity and government trust were associated with fewer COVID-19 deaths during the first and second 3-month periods of observation. In the third 3-month period, the association between COVID-19 deaths and government trust became nonsignificant. Trust in neighbors, neighborhood ties, and social participation were not related to COVID-19 deaths during any time period. The disparity of COVID-19 deaths by prefecture in Japan can be explained by cognitive social capital. This study suggests that the association between social capital and COVID-19 deaths may vary according to the dimension of social capital and time period.

HIV Infection Prevalence Significantly Intersects With COVID-19 Infection At the Area Level: A US County-Level Analysis

BACKGROUND

Limited empirical evidence exists about the extent to which the current HIV epidemic intersects with COVID-19 infections at the area/geographic level. Moreover, little is known about how demographic, social, economic, behavioral, and clinical determinants are jointly associated with these infectious diseases.

SETTING

Contiguous US counties (N = 3108).

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis and investigated the joint association between new HIV infection prevalence in 2018 and COVID-19 infections (January 22, 2020 and October 7, 2020) and explore the contribution of factors such as income inequality, binge drinking, and socioeconomic deprivation. We used Bayesian multivariate spatial models to estimate the cross-disease correlations between these diseases and identified hotspots, which we defined as a county with a posterior probability greater than 80% of being in the top decile of that disease.

RESULTS

New HIV infection prevalence and COVID-19 infection moderately and significantly intersect [spatial correlation = 0.37, 95% credible interval (CrI) = 0.36-0.37]. Seventy-five counties, mostly in the south, were at elevated burden for HIV and COVID-19 infections. Higher income inequality was positively associated with both COVID-19 (relative risk 1.05, 95% CrI = 1.03-1.07) and HIV infection (relative risk = 1.12, 95% CrI = 1.09-1.15).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that there is a considerable intersection between the current distribution of HIV burden with COVID-19 infections at the area level. We identified areas that federal funding and vaccination campaigns should prioritize for prevention and care efforts.

Data-Powered Positive Deviance during the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic-An Ecological Pilot Study of German Districts

We introduced the mixed-methods Data-Powered Positive Deviance (DPPD) framework as a potential addition to the set of tools used to search for effective response strategies against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. For this purpose, we conducted a DPPD study in the context of the early stages of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We used a framework of scalable quantitative methods to identify positively deviant German districts that is novel in the scientific literature on DPPD, and subsequently employed qualitative methods to identify factors that might have contributed to their comparatively successful reduction of the forward transmission rate. Our qualitative analysis suggests that quick, proactive, decisive, and flexible/pragmatic actions, the willingness to take risks and deviate from standard procedures, good information flows both in terms of data collection and public communication, alongside the utilization of social network effects were deemed highly important by the interviewed districts. Our study design with its small qualitative sample constitutes an exploratory and illustrative effort and hence does not allow for a clear causal link to be established. Thus, the results cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other districts as is. However, the findings indicate areas for further research to assess these strategies' effectiveness in a broader study setting. We conclude by stressing DPPD's strengths regarding replicability, scalability, adaptability, as well as its focus on local solutions, which make it a promising framework to be applied in various contexts, e.g., in the context of the Global South.

Does marriage protect mental health? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Using weekly variation from April 23 to June 23 2020, we exploit the surge in unemployment over the coronavirus pandemic to identify the effects on mental health outcomes and the role of marital status as a protective factor for households. We find that married respondents are 1-2 percentage points less likely, relative to their unmarried counterparts, to experience mental health problems following declines in work-related income since the start of the pandemic. Our results suggest that the combination of intrafamily substitution and the psychological benefits of marriage helps insure against unanticipated fluctuations in job and income loss.

Willingness to Get the COVID-19 Vaccine among Residents of Slum Settlements

Slum residents are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Without a specific treatment, vaccination became the main strategy against COVID-19. In this study, we determined the rate and factors associated with the willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19 among slum residents and their main reasons associated with the vaccine intention. The study was conducted in Pau da Lima, a slum community in Salvador Brazil. In total, 985 residents were interviewed. Among them 66.0% (650/985) were willing to get vaccinated, 26.1% (257/985) were hesitant to take the vaccine and 7.9% (78/285) were not sure. The main reasons cited for vaccine hesitancy or being unsure were concerns about vaccine efficacy and potential side effects. In contrast, the main reasons cited for wanting the vaccine were the high incidence of COVID-19 cases and participants’ self-perception of their own health history. Multivariate analysis identified that COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was associated with younger age and low social capital, summarized as low perceived importance of vaccination to protect one’s family, friends and community. Slum residents have been less willing to vaccinate than the general population. Social capital presents a critical opportunity in the design of communication campaigns to increase COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in slum settings.

Considering COVID-19 through the Lens of Hazard and Disaster Research

Decades of social science research have taught us much about how individuals, groups, and communities respond to disasters. The findings of this research have helped inform emergency management practices, including disaster preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, most of us—researchers or not—have attempted or are attempting to make sense of what is going on around us. In this article, we assert that we need not examine the pandemic in a vacuum; rather, we can draw upon scholarly and practical sources to inform our thinking about this 21st century catastrophe. The pandemic has provided an “unfortunate opportunity” to revisit what we know about disaster phenomena, including catastrophes, and to reconsider the findings of research from over the years. Drawing upon academic research, media sources, and our own observations, we focus on the U.S. and employ disaster characteristics framework of (1) etiology or origins; (2) physical damage characteristics; (3) disaster phases or cycles; (4) vulnerability; (5) community impacts; and (6) individual impacts to examine perspectives about the ways in which the ongoing pandemic is both similar and dissimilar to conceptualizations about the social dimensions of hazards and disasters. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is not merely a disaster; rather, it is a catastrophe.

Designing COVID-19 mortality predictions to advance clinical outcomes: Evidence from the Department of Veterans Affairs

Using administrative data on all Veterans who enter Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centres throughout the USA, this paper uses artificial intelligence (AI) to predict mortality rates for patients with COVID-19 between March and August 2020. First, using comprehensive data on over 10 000 Veterans’ medical history, demographics and lab results, we estimate five AI models. Our XGBoost model performs the best, producing an area under the receive operator characteristics curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve of 0.87 and 0.41, respectively. We show how focusing on the performance of the AUROC alone can lead to unreliable models. Second, through a unique collaboration with the Washington D.C. VA medical centre, we develop a dashboard that incorporates these risk factors and the contributing sources of risk, which we deploy across local VA medical centres throughout the country. Our results provide a concrete example of how AI recommendations can be made explainable and practical for clinicians and their interactions with patients.

Can Social Prescribing Foster Individual and Community Well-Being? A Systematic Review of the Evidence

Social prescribing programmes (SP) are person-centred coaching schemes meant to help participants improve individual circumstances, thereby to reduce demand on health and social care. SP could be an innovative means to improve preventive and public health in the pursuit of universal financially sustainable healthcare. Given its potential, our systematic review assesses type, content, and quality of evidence available regarding SP effectiveness at the individual, system, and community levels. We examine the impact of SP on addressing loneliness, social isolation, well-being, and connectedness, as well as related concepts, which are not yet considered jointly in one study. Following PRISMA, we search: EBSCOHost (CINAHL Complete; eBook Collection; E-Journals; MEDLINE Full Text; Open Dissertations; PsycARTICLES; PsycINFO); Web of Science Core Collection; and UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Excluding systematic reviews and articles without impact evaluations, we review 51 studies. Several studies do not distinguish between core concepts and/or provide information on the measures used to assess outcomes; exactly one peer-reviewed study presents a randomised controlled trial. If we wish to know the potential of social prescribing to lead to universal financially sustainable healthcare, we urge researchers and practitioners to standardise definitions and metrics, and to explore conceptual linkages between social prescribing and system/community outcomes.