Impact of salt intake reduction on CVD mortality in Costa Rica: A scenario modelling study

Economic burden for the Unified Health System attributable to excessive sodium consumption in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to estimate the economic costs of excessive sodium consumption in terms of hospitalizations and outpatient procedures of medium and high complexity (OPMHC) for the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) and its states in 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Ecological study.

METHOD

This study used population attributable fractions (PAFs) of excessive sodium consumption estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study based on the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (3 g of sodium per day), the average population consumption, and relative risks of sodium-outcome pairs. PAFs were applied to the total costs of hospitalizations and OPMHC paid by SUS for each outcome obtained from the Outpatient and Hospital Information Systems. The costs per 10,000 inhabitants in all the Brazilian states were calculated and converted into international dollars (Int$), considering the purchasing parity power in the year 2019.

RESULTS

Excessive sodium consumption resulted in Int$ 98,882,386.36 (95% uncertainty interval: Int$ 3,398,343.53-312,065,319.80) in hospitalizations and OPMHC costs in Brazil in 2019. Males and the 55- to 69-year-old age group had the highest expenditures attributable to excessive sodium consumption. Cardiovascular diseases were the most significant contributors to the costs associated with the risk factor. Southern and southeastern states had the highest costs of diseases attributable to sodium.

CONCLUSION

Excessive sodium consumption has a significant economic burden on SUS, particularly among men and more developed states. This underscores the inequalities in socio-economic factors and access to health services throughout the country. Economic analyses at the subnational level can provide evidence for public policy planning to define the most appropriate actions for the population's sociodemographic reality.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis.

Results

A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy.

Future work and limitations

There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions.

Conclusions

The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

Evaluating the role of salt intake in achieving WHO NCD targets in the Eurasian Economic Union: A PRIME modeling study

The World Health Organization has set clear global targets in reducing non-communicable disease mortality by 2030 in its sustainable development goals. This study models the number of deaths that could be averted if Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) member states met the target of reducing their population's current mean salt intake by 30% to achieve mortality reduction targets. Using the WHO Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME), we modelled the mortality impact of reducing salt consumption by 30%, as well as according to WHO recommended levels (5 g/person/day), for the five member states of the EEU. PRIME models the number of averted deaths from reducing salt intake by applying established risk ratios to a given population. The baseline demographic and mortality data that are required to generate these estimates were obtained from the relevant government statistical bodies, and salt intake data were referenced from surveillance studies. Uncertainty intervals were generated using Monte Carlo simulation. If salt consumption was reduced by 30%, we estimate that there would have been 94,150 (95%UI: 47,329 to 137,131) fewer deaths due to cardiovascular disease in the EEU in the baseline year, with males and the elderly being more affected. If the WHO-recommended maximum salt intake of 5 g/day was achieved, a total of 193,155 (95%UI: 98,548 to 272,536) deaths would have been prevented. These findings underline the importance of incorporating effective policy changes to meet targets in reducing NCD mortality by one-third by 2030.

Modelling the impact of sodium intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent the main cause of death in Mexico, while high blood pressure is suffered by about half of the adult population. Sodium intake is one of the main risk factors for these diseases. The Mexican adult population consumes about 3.1 g/day, an amount that exceeds what is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) < 2 g sodium/day. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing sodium intake on CVD mortality in Mexico using a scenario simulation model.

METHODS

The Integrated Model of Preventable Risk (PRIME) was used to estimate the number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) due to CVD in the Mexican adult population following the following sodium intake reduction scenarios: (a) according to the WHO recommendations; (b) an "optimistic" reduction of 30%; and (c) an "intermediate" reduction of 10%.

RESULTS

The results show that a total of 27,700 CVD deaths could be prevented or postponed for scenario A, 13,900 deaths for scenario B, and 5,800 for scenario C. For all scenarios, the highest percentages of DPP by type of CVD are related to ischemic heart disease, hypertensive disease, and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that if Mexico considers implementing policies with greater impact to reduce sodium/salt consumption, a significant number of deaths from CVD could be prevented or postponed.

Factors Impacting the Uptake of Research into Dietary Sodium Reduction Policies in Five Latin American Countries: A Qualitative Study

Background

Diets high in sodium are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Latin American countries (LAC) consume more than double the recommended sodium levels. Research uptake in dietary sodium reduction policies has been inconsistent in LAC, and the factors impacting research uptake are largely unknown. This study aimed to describe the barriers and facilitators to the uptake of research into sodium reduction policies from a funded research consortium with 5 LAC (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and Peru).

Methods

A qualitative case study included 5 researchers and 4 Ministry of Health officers from the funded consortium. Dimensions from Trostle's framework of actors, content, context, and process and relative advantages from the Diffusion of Innovation informed the semi-structured interview guide and analysis. One-on-one interviews were completed from November 2019 to January 2020. The participants validated transcripts, coded, and analyzed using NVivo software.

Results

Key barriers to policy advancements included 1) conflicts of interest from the food industry and some government actors; 2) government turnover resulting in policy and personnel changes; 3) a lack of human and financial resources; and 4) and communication gaps among key actors. Key facilitators to policy advancement included: 1) the content and quality of health economic, food supply, and qualitative data; 2) support, technical assistance, and alliances with the government, non-governmental organizations, and international experts; and 3) researchers enhanced skillsets facilitated with communication and dissemination with policymakers.

Conclusion

Researchers and policymakers are faced with several barriers and facilitators on research uptake in policies and programs in LAC; these factors should be addressed and leveraged to advance sodium reduction policy development. Future LAC studies can draw from the insights and lessons learned from this case study and apply the results to future efforts on policy nutrition to promote healthy eating and reduce CVD risk.

Estimating the dietary and health impact of implementing front-of-pack nutrition labeling in Canada: A macrosimulation modeling study

Background

Front-of-pack labeling (FOPL) has been identified as a cost-effective policy to promote healthy diets. Health Canada has recently published FOPL regulations that will require food and beverages that meet or exceed set thresholds for sodium, sugars, or saturated fat to display a 'high in' symbol on the front of the package. Although a promising measure, its potential impact on dietary intakes and health have not yet been estimated in Canada.

Objective

This study aims to estimate (1) the potential dietary impact of implementing a mandatory FOPL among Canadian adults; and (2) the number of diet-related non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths that could be averted or delayed due to these estimated dietary changes.

Methods

Baseline and counterfactual usual intakes of sodium, total sugars, saturated fats, and calories were estimated among Canadian adults (n = 11,992) using both available days of 24 h recalls from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate usual intakes, and adjusted for age, sex, misreporting status, weekend/weekday, and sequence of recall. Estimated counterfactual dietary intakes were modeled from reductions observed in experimental and observational studies that examined changes in sodium, sugars, saturated fat, and calorie content of food purchases in the presence of a 'high in' FOPL (four counterfactual scenarios). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl was used to estimate potential health impacts.

Results

Estimated mean dietary reductions were between 31 and 212 mg/day of sodium, 2.3 and 8.7 g/day of total sugars, 0.8 and 3.7 g/day of saturated fats, and 16 and 59 kcal/day of calories. Between 2,183 (95% UI 2,008-2,361) and 8,907 (95% UI 8,095-9,667) deaths due to diet-related NCDs, mostly from cardiovascular diseases (~70%), could potentially be averted or delayed by implementing a 'high in' FOPL in Canada. This estimation represents between 2.4 and 9.6% of the total number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada.

Conclusion

Results suggest that implementing a FOPL could significantly reduce sodium, total sugar, and saturated fat intakes among Canadian adults and subsequently prevent or postpone a substantial number of diet-related NCD deaths in Canada. These results provide critical evidence to inform policy decisions related to implementing FOPL in Canada.

Estimation of the economic benefits for the public health system related to salt reduction in Costa Rica

Excessive salt and sodium intake are strongly associated with high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular disease. High blood pressure in turn is the main risk factor for the global burden of morbidity and mortality. The prevalence of this disease in the adult population of Costa Rica in 2018 was 37.2%. Costa Rica has limited information on the economic costs for the public health system and related of the prevalence of this type of disease mediated by dietary factors such as salt intake.

OBJECTIVE

to estimate the economic benefits for the public health system related to salt reduction in Costa Rica for the year 2018.

METHODOLOGY

estimation of the economic benefits for the public healthcare costs and productivity losses associated to reducing the per capita salt consumption of Costa Ricans to 5g/day, including the estimation of the Years of Life Productive Lost and of the direct costs on consultations, hospitalizations, and medications for the Costa Rica Social Security System.

RESULTS

The total annual costs of hospitalization, consultations, and medications attributable to excessive salt intake in the population older than 15 years of age for the year 2018, were estimated at USD $15.1 million. The highest were in hospitalizations (53%), followed by consultations and medications (32% and 15%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

NCDs caused by excessive salt intake represent important economic losses for the country, not only in terms of direct health costs, but also indirect due to the increase in years of potential life lost due to premature deaths because of CVD, which causes significant losses of human capital and, therefore, to the economy and the development of Costa Rica.

Estimating Canadian sodium intakes and the health impact of meeting national and WHO recommended sodium intake levels: A macrosimulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the second leading cause of total deaths in Canada. High blood pressure is the main metabolic risk factor for developing CVDs. It has been well established that excess consumption of sodium adversely affects blood pressure. Canadians' mean sodium intakes are well above recommended levels. Reducing dietary sodium intake through food reformulation has been identified as a cost-effective intervention, however, dietary sodium intake and the potential health impact of meeting recommended sodium intake levels due to food reformulation have not been determined in Canada.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to 1) obtain robust estimates of Canadians' usual sodium intakes, 2) model sodium intakes had foods been reformulated to align with Health Canada's sodium reduction targets, and 3) estimate the number of CVD deaths that could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their mean sodium intake to recommended levels under three scenarios: A) 2,300 mg/d-driven by a reduction of sodium levels in packaged foods to meet Health Canada targets (reformulation); B) 2,000 mg/d to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation; and C) 1,500 mg/d to meet the Adequate Intake recommendation.

METHODS

Foods in the University of Toronto's Food Label Information Program 2017, a Canadian branded food composition database, were linked to nationally representative food intake data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition to estimate sodium intakes (and intakes had Health Canada's reformulation strategy been fully implemented). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate potential health impact.

RESULTS

Overall, mean sodium intake was 2758 mg/day, varying by age and sex group. Based on 'reformulation' scenario A, mean sodium intakes were reduced by 459 mg/day, to 2299 mg/day. Reducing Canadians' sodium intake to recommended levels under scenarios A, B and C could have averted or delayed 2,176 (95% UI 869-3,687), 3,252 (95% UI 1,380-5,321), and 5,296 (95% UI 2,190-8,311) deaths due to CVDs, respectively, mainly from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease. This represents 3.7%, 5.6%, and 9.1%, respectively, of the total number of CVDs deaths observed in Canada in 2019.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that reducing sodium intake to recommended levels could prevent or postpone a substantial number of CVD deaths in Canada. Reduced sodium intakes could be achieved through reformulation of the Canadian food supply. However, it will require higher compliance from the food industry to achieve Health Canada's voluntary benchmark sodium reduction targets.

The estimated burden of ultra-processed foods on cardiovascular disease outcomes in Brazil: A modeling study

Introduction

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study aimed to estimate CVD premature deaths, incident cases, and disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazilian adults in 2019.

Methods

A validated a comparative risk assessment model was adapted to estimate the burden of major CVD outcomes (coronary heart disease and stroke) attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazilian adults aged 30 to 69 years. The model inputs included nationally representative data of the UPF contribution to the total energy of the diet, national official demographic records, CVD outcomes (incidence, deaths and DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease study for 2019, and relative risks from meta-analysis studies.

Results

We estimated that approximately 19,200 premature deaths (95% uncertainty intervals - UI, 7,097 to 32,353), 74,900 new cases (95% UI, 25,983 to 128,725), and 883,000 DALYs/year (95% UI, 324,279 to 1,492,593) from CVD were attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazil, corresponding to about 22% of the premature deaths from CVD and to 33% of the total premature all-cause deaths attributable to UPF intake among Brazilian adults. Reducing UPF consumption by 10% in the adult population would avert approximately 11% of the premature CVD deaths, equivalent to 2,100 deaths/year (95% UI, 697 to 4,511). A 20% reduction in UPF intake would avert approximately 21% of the premature CVD deaths or 4,100 deaths (95% UI, 1,413 to 8,047), and a 50% reduction in UPF intake would avert about 52% of the premature CVD deaths, corresponding to 9,900 deaths/year (95% UI, 3,682 to 17,820). If UPF consumption among adults was reduced to that of the first quintile of UPF intake in the baseline scenario, approximately 81% of the premature CVD deaths would be averted, corresponding to some 15,600 deaths/year (95% UI, 5,229 to 27,519).

Conclusion

Our study estimated a high burden of premature CVD outcomes attributable to the consumption of UPF in Brazil. Our findings support food policies aimed at reducing the consumption of UPF, such as fiscal and regulatory policies, which are imperative to prevent CVD in Brazil.

A Program Evaluation of a Dietary Sodium Reduction Research Consortium of Five Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Latin America

Excess dietary sodium is a global public health priority, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where rates of hypertension and cardiovascular disease are high. The International Development Research Centre funded a research consortium of five Latin American countries (LAC) to inform public health policy for dietary sodium reduction (2016-2020). The objective of this study was to determine the outcomes of this funding on short-term (e.g., research, capacity building) and intermediary outcomes (e.g., policies). A summative program evaluation was conducted, using a logic model and multiple data sources including document review, surveys and interviews. Researchers from Argentina, Costa Rica, Brazil, Peru and Paraguay produced a significant amount of scientific evidence to guide decision making on sodium policy related to its content in foods, consumer behaviors (social marketing), and the health and economic benefits of dietary reduction. A substantive number of knowledge translation products were produced. The funding enabled training opportunities for researchers who developed skills that can be scaled-up to other critical nutrients and health issues. It was unexpected that intermediary policy changes would occur, however several countries demonstrated early policy improvements derived from this research. A funded research consortium of LAC is a practical approach to invoke policy innovations.

Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

Estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1).

DESIGN

Modelling study.

SETTING

General adult population of Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Men and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3.

RESULTS

Proposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies.

Reducing Sodium Consumption in Mexico: A Strategy to Decrease the Morbidity and Mortality of Cardiovascular Diseases

Hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are important public health problems in Mexico. High sodium intake is linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of developing CVD. International organizations suggest consuming <2 g of sodium/day; however, the Mexican population consumes amounts above what is recommended: 3.1 g/day. Although efforts have been made to mitigate this problem, interventions are needed to improve cardiovascular health. This policy brief offers a short review of the current sodium consumption situation in Mexico and the importance of why decision makers should consider actions to reduce consumption. Recommendations to reduce sodium/salt intake include: Reformulation of ultra-processed-foods, promote the use warning labels, communication campaign, reduce the use of table salt, and monitor sodium intake.

Dietary Sodium and Potassium Intake: Data from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2016

Population studies have demonstrated an association between sodium and potassium intake and blood pressure levels and lipids. The aim of this study was to describe the dietary intake and contribution of sodium and potassium to the Mexican diet, and to describe its association with nutrition status and clinical characteristics. We analyzed a national survey with 4219 participants. Dietary information was obtained with a 24-h recall. Foods and beverages were classified according to level of processing. The mean intake (mg/d) of Na was 1512 in preschool children, 2844 in school-age children, 3743 in adolescents, and 3132 in adults. The mean intake (mg/d) of K was 1616 in preschool children, 2256 in school-age children, 2967 in adolescents, and 3401 in adults. Processed and ultra-processed foods (UPF) contribute 49% of Na intake in preschool children, 50% in school-age children, 47% in adolescents, and 39% in adults. Adults with high Na intake had lower serum concentrations of cholesterol, HDL-c, and LDL-c. A significant proportion of the Mexican population has a high intake of Na (64-82%) and low K (58-73%). Strategies to reduce Na and increase K intake need to reduce the possibility of having high BP and serum lipid disturbances.