Measles surveillance in Canada, 2019

Genome sequence of a measles virus strain with a novel loss of stop codon mutation in the phosphoprotein gene

Measles virus genotype B3 coding-complete genome sequence from a 2019 case showed a novel mutation in the phosphoprotein (P) gene that abrogates the established stop codon. A downstream stop codon has been identified, resulting in a putative P that would be 19 amino acids longer than wild type.

Travel vaccines-priorities determined by incidence and impact

BACKGROUND

Infectious disease epidemiology is continuously shifting. While travel has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and travel-related epidemiological research experienced a pause, further shifts in vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) relevant for travellers have occurred.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search on the epidemiology of travel-related VPD and synthesized data for each disease with a focus on symptomatic cases and on the impact of the respective infection among travellers, considering the hospitalization rate, disease sequela and case fatality rate. We present new data and revised best estimates on the burden of VPD relevant for decisions on priorities in travel vaccines.

RESULTS

COVID-19 has emerged to be a top travel-related risk and influenza remains high in the ranking with an estimated incidence at 1% per month of travel. Dengue is another commonly encountered infection among international travellers with estimated monthly incidence of 0.5-0.8% among non-immune exposed travellers; the hospitalized proportion was 10 and 22%, respectively, according to two recent publications. With recent yellow fever outbreaks particularly in Brazil, its estimated monthly incidence has risen to >0.1%. Meanwhile, improvements in hygiene and sanitation have led to some decrease in foodborne illnesses; however, hepatitis A monthly incidence remains substantial in most developing regions (0.001-0.01%) and typhoid remains particularly high in South Asia (>0.01%). Mpox, a newly emerged disease that demonstrated worldwide spread through mass gathering and travel, cannot be quantified regarding its travel-related risk.

CONCLUSION

The data summarized may provide a tool for travel health professionals to prioritize preventive strategies for their clients against VPD. Updated assessments on incidence and impact are ever more important since new vaccines with travel indications (e.g. dengue) have been licensed or are undergoing regulatory review.

Monitoring real-time transmission heterogeneity from incidence data

The transmission heterogeneity of an epidemic is associated with a complex mixture of host, pathogen and environmental factors. And it may indicate superspreading events to reduce the efficiency of population-level control measures and to sustain the epidemic over a larger scale and a longer duration. Methods have been proposed to identify significant transmission heterogeneity in historic epidemics based on several data sources, such as contact history, viral genomes and spatial information, which may not be available, and more importantly ignore the temporal trend of transmission heterogeneity. Here we attempted to establish a convenient method to estimate real-time heterogeneity over an epidemic. Within the branching process framework, we introduced an instant-individualheterogenous infectiousness model to jointly characterize the variation in infectiousness both between individuals and among different times. With this model, we could simultaneously estimate the transmission heterogeneity and the reproduction number from incidence time series. We validated the model with data of both simulated and real outbreaks. Our estimates of the overall and real-time heterogeneities of the six epidemics were consistent with those presented in the literature. Additionally, our model is robust to the ubiquitous bias of under-reporting and misspecification of serial interval. By analyzing recent data from South Africa, we found evidence that the Omicron might be of more significant transmission heterogeneity than Delta. Our model based on incidence data was proved to be reliable in estimating the real-time transmission heterogeneity.

Population immunity to measles in Canada using Canadian Health Measures survey data - A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study

We aimed to determine population immunity to measles in Canada, and to assess the risk of future outbreaks. We tested 11,176 sera from Cycles 2 (2009-2011) and 3 (2011-2013) cohorts from the biobank of Statistics Canada's Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) using the BioPlex 2220 MMRV IgG assay. We then tested all BioPlex negative and equivocal samples using a more sensitive Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT). We determined the weighted proportion of positive, equivocal, and negative samples by age, sex, region and whether individuals were born in Canada. We found that 90.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.2, 91.9) of samples were positive, 4.5% (95% CI: 3.4, 5.5) were equivocal and 5.5% (95% CI: 4.3, 6.7) were negative. Individuals in the 12-19 year age band had the lowest proportion positive at 78.7% (95% CI: 74.2, 83.2) and the highest proportion of positive samples was found in those 60-79 years (99.6%, 95% CI: 99.3, 99.9). Seropositivity was consistently <90% across a broad range of pediatric and adult age bands (6-39 years). We found that a slightly higher proportion of females were positive (91.9%, 95% CI: 90.1, 93.6) compared to males (88.3%, 95% CI: 85.8, 90.7). When taking into account interaction between age and born in Canada status, we found individuals born in Canada aged 19 and under were less susceptible (OR = 0.6 (95% CI: 0.4, 0.95)) compared to those born outside Canada whereas, those aged 20 and over were more susceptible (OR = 1.7 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.8)). Our findings indicate that measles immunity in Canada is below the 95% immunity threshold required to sustain measles elimination, underscoring the importance of maintaining high vaccine coverage to prevent future measles outbreaks and sustain Canada's elimination status.