Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine

New uses for ancient middens: bridging ecological and evolutionary perspectives

Rodent middens provide a fine-scale spatiotemporal record of plant and animal communities over the late Quaternary. In the Americas, middens have offered insight into biotic responses to past environmental changes and historical factors influencing the distribution and diversity of species. However, few studies have used middens to investigate genetic or ecosystem level responses. Integrating midden studies with neoecology and experimental evolution can help address these gaps and test mechanisms underlying eco-evolutionary patterns across biological and spatiotemporal scales. Fully realizing the potential of middens to answer cross-cutting ecological and evolutionary questions and inform conservation goals in the Anthropocene will require a collaborative research community to exploit existing midden archives and mount new campaigns to leverage midden records globally.

Westward Expansion by Juniperus virginiana of the Eastern United States and Intersection with Western Juniperus Species in a Novel Assemblage

Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) is increasing in density in the eastern United States and expanding in range to the west, while western Juniperus species also are increasing and expanding, creating the potential for a novel assemblage. I estimated range expansion and intersection by comparing recent USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys (mean year = 2009) to the oldest available surveys (mean year = 1981), with adjustments for sampling changes, and predicted climate envelopes during the following year ranges: 1500–1599, 1800–1849, 1850–1899, 1900–1949, and 1960–1989. During approximately 28 years, eastern redcedar range expanded by about 54 million ha (based on ≥0.5% of total stems ≥12.7 cm in diameter in ecological subsections). Combined range of western species of juniper did not expand. Range intersection of eastern redcedar and western Juniperus species totaled 200,000 km2 and increased by 31,600 km2 over time, representing a novel assemblage of eastern and western species. Predicted ranges during the other time intervals were 94% to 98% of predicted area during 1960–1989, suggesting major climate conditions have been suitable for centuries. The southern western Juniperus species and Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum Sarg.) have the greatest potential for intersection with eastern redcedar, whereas eastern redcedar may have concluded westward expansion.

The Effects of Multi-Scale Climate Variability on Biodiversity Patterns of Chinese Evergreen Broad-Leaved Woody Plants: Growth Form Matters

Large-scale patterns of species diversity are thought to be linked to contemporary climate variability and Quaternary glacial–interglacial climate change. For plants, growth forms integrate traits related to competition or migration capacity, which determine their abilities to deal with the climate variability they face. Evergreen broad-leaved woody plants (EBWPs) are major components of numerous biomes in the subtropical and tropical regions. Hence, incorporating phylogenetic (temporal) and biogeographic (spatial) approaches, we assessed the relative importance of short- and long-term climate variability for biodiversity patterns of different growth forms (i.e., tree, shrub, liana, and bamboo) in EBWPs. We used a dated phylogeny and the distribution records for 6,265 EBWP species which are naturally occurred in China, and computed the corrected weighted endemism, standardized phylogenetic diversity and net relatedness index for the four growth forms, respectively. Ordinary least squares linear regressions, spatial error simultaneous autoregressive models, partial regression and hierarchical variation partitioning were employed to estimate the explanatory power of contemporary climate variability and climate-change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Our results showed that short- and long-term climate variability play complementary role in the biogeographic patterns of Chinese EBWPs. The former had larger effects, but the legacy effects of past climate changes were also remarkable. There were also differences in the effects of historical and current climate among the four growth forms, which support growth forms as a critical plant trait in predicting vegetation response to climate change. Compared to the glacial-interglacial climate fluctuation, seasonality as a unique feature of mid-latitude monsoon climate played a dominant role in the diversification and distribution of EBWP species at the macroscale. The results indicated that the relative importance of climate variability at different temporal scales may relate to distinct mechanisms. To understand effects of future climate change on species distribution more thoroughly, climate conditions in different time scales should be incorporated.

A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change

During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast-slow-abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.

A climatic dipole drives short- and long-term patterns of postfire forest recovery in the western United States

Researchers are increasingly examining patterns and drivers of postfire forest recovery amid growing concern that climate change and intensifying fires will trigger ecosystem transformations. Diminished seed availability and postfire drought have emerged as key constraints on conifer recruitment. However, the spatial and temporal extent to which recurring modes of climatic variability shape patterns of postfire recovery remain largely unexplored. Here, we identify a north-south dipole in annual climatic moisture deficit anomalies across the Interior West of the US and characterize its influence on forest recovery from fire. We use annually resolved establishment models from dendrochronological records to correlate this climatic dipole with short-term postfire juvenile recruitment. We also examine longer-term recovery trajectories using Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 989 burned plots. We show that annual postfire ponderosa pine recruitment probabilities in the northern Rocky Mountains (NR) and the southwestern US (SW) track the strength of the dipole, while declining overall due to increasing aridity. This indicates that divergent recovery trajectories may be triggered concurrently across large spatial scales: favorable conditions in the SW can correspond to drought in the NR that inhibits ponderosa pine establishment, and vice versa. The imprint of this climatic dipole is manifest for years postfire, as evidenced by dampened long-term likelihoods of juvenile ponderosa pine presence in areas that experienced postfire drought. These findings underscore the importance of climatic variability at multiple spatiotemporal scales in driving cross-regional patterns of forest recovery and have implications for understanding ecosystem transformations and species range dynamics under global change.

Fine-scale stand structure mediates drought-induced tree mortality in pinyon-juniper woodlands

Severe drought has resulted in widespread tree die-off events in forests and woodlands globally and is forecast to become more frequent in coming decades. Tree mortality is a complex process influenced by climate, soils, characteristics of individual trees, interactions between trees, and the dynamics of pests and pathogens. The role of stand structure and stand density in mediating the resistance of trees to drought remains poorly understood, especially in semiarid woodlands, which are expected to be highly susceptible to future severe drought. We sampled permanent plots in central Nevada woodlands dominated by single-leaf pinyon pine and Utah juniper before and after a severe multi-year drought (2013-2015) to investigate the importance of climate, tree attributes, and local-neighborhood stand structure on tree mortality and canopy dieback at the level of individual trees and 0.1-ha plots. We observed widespread tree mortality of pinyon at approximately eight times the reported background mortality rate, and substantial canopy dieback in both pinyon and juniper. Both species were more prone to mortality and dieback in hotter, drier sites. Canopy dieback was associated with both long-term average climate and the severity of recent drought, with elevated mortality on sites with higher water deficits, average summer temperatures, and vapor pressure deficits. Soils also played a role in tree dieback, with greater mortality on deeper soils. While mortality was driven largely by climate at coarse scales, fine-scale stand structure interacted with climate to mediate mortality and dieback. Neighborhood statistics showed that trees were susceptible to competitive influence, and pinyon trees were especially sensitive to neighborhood density on drier sites. Mortality and dieback were associated with diverse, co-occurring insect and parasitic plant mortality agents. Canopy dieback prior to the drought was strongly associated with tree mortality during the drought, implying that current widespread defoliation caused by these agents may foreshadow future elevated woodland decline. Fine-scale influences such as stand structure and soil characteristics play a key role in the long-term dynamics of semiarid woodlands, and these factors should be considered in predictive models of forest and woodland susceptibility to drought.

Genetic-Based Susceptibility of a Foundation Tree to Herbivory Interacts With Climate to Influence Arthropod Community Composition, Diversity, and Resilience

Understanding how genetic-based traits of plants interact with climate to affect associated communities will help improve predictions of climate change impacts on biodiversity. However, few community-level studies have addressed such interactions. Pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) in the southwestern U.S. shows genetic-based resistance and susceptibility to pinyon needle scale (Matsucoccus acalyptus). We sought to determine if susceptibility to scale herbivory influenced the diversity and composition of the extended community of 250+ arthropod species, and if this influence would be consistent across consecutive years, an extreme drought year followed by a moderate drought year. Because scale insects alter the architecture of susceptible trees, it is difficult to separate the direct influences of susceptibility on arthropod communities from the indirect influences of scale-altered tree architecture. To separate these influences, scales were experimentally excluded from susceptible trees for 15 years creating susceptible trees with the architecture of resistant trees, hereafter referred to as scale-excluded trees. Five patterns emerged. (1) In both years, arthropod abundance was 3-4X lower on susceptible trees compared to resistant and scale-excluded trees. (2) Species accumulation curves show that alpha and gamma diversity were 2-3X lower on susceptible trees compared to resistant and scale-excluded trees. (3) Reaction norms of arthropod richness and abundance on individual tree genotypes across years showed genotypic variation in the community response to changes in climate. (4) The genetic-based influence of susceptibility on arthropod community composition is climate dependent. During extreme drought, community composition on scale-excluded trees resembled susceptible trees indicating composition was strongly influenced by tree genetics independent of tree architecture. However, under moderate drought, community composition on scale-excluded trees resembled resistant trees indicating traits associated with tree architecture became more important. (5) One year after extreme drought, the arthropod community rebounded sharply. However, there was a much greater rebound in richness and abundance on resistant compared to susceptible trees suggesting that reduced resiliency in the arthropod community is associated with susceptibility. These results argue that individual genetic-based plant-herbivore interactions can directly and indirectly impact community-level diversity, which is modulated by climate. Understanding such interactions is important for assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Shrub encroachment into grasslands: end of an era?

Shifts in the abundance of grasses and woody plants in drylands have occurred several times during the Holocene. However, our understanding of the rates and dynamics of this state-change in recent decades is limited to scattered studies conducted at disparate spatial and temporal scales; the potential misperceptions of shrub cover change could be remedied using cross spatiotemporal scale analyses that link field observations, repeat ground-level photography and remote sensing perspectives. The study was conducted across a semi-arid landscape in southern Arizona. Local data from long-term transects revealed three distinct chronological phases of shrub cover change: expansion (1961-1991, 0.7% y^-1), decline (1992-1997, -2.3% y^-1) and stabilization (1998-2012, 22-25% with no net cover change). Twenty-eight years (1984-2011) of broad-scale Landsat Thematic Mapper assessments confirm that shrub cover has been relatively stable in recent decades regardless of grazing regimes and landforms with the exception of the proliferation of succulents at lower elevations (verified by repeat photography acquired in 1987 and 2015) where the physical environment is the harshest, reflecting elevated temperature and winter precipitation deficit. Warmer, drier future climates are predicted to reduce woody plant carrying capacity and promote a shift to xerophytic succulents.

Cracking the Code of Biodiversity Responses to Past Climate Change

How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Mechanisms of grass response in grasslands and shrublands during dry or wet periods

Multi-year climatic periods are expected to increase with global change, yet long-term data are often insufficient to document factors leading to ecological responses. We used a suite of long-term datasets (1993-2010) to examine the processes underlying different relationships between aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and precipitation in wet and dry rainfall periods in shrublands and grasslands in the Chihuahuan Desert. We hypothesized that trends in ANPP can be explained by different processes associated with their dominant grasses [Bouteloua eriopoda (grasslands); Sporobolus flexuosus (shrublands)] and with ecosystem properties that influence soil water dynamics with feedbacks to ANPP. We compared datasets on recruitment and growth for 7 years with no trend in precipitation followed by a 4-year drought and 5 consecutive wet years. We integrated these data in a simulation model to examine the importance of positive feedbacks. In grasslands, ANPP was linearly related to precipitation regardless of rainfall period, primarily as a result of stolon recruitment by B. eriopoda. A lag in responses suggests the importance of legacies associated with stolon density. In shrublands, ANPP was only related to rainfall in the wet period when it increased nonlinearly as the number of wet years increased. Seed availability increased in the first wet year, and seedling establishment occurred 2-4 years later. Increases in biomass, litter and simulated transpiration beginning in the third year corresponded with increases in ANPP. Understanding the processes underlying ecosystem dynamics in multi-year dry or wet periods is expected to improve predictions under directional increases or decreases in rainfall.

Woodland dynamics at the northern range periphery: a challenge for protected area management in a changing world

Managers of protected natural areas increasingly are confronted with novel ecological conditions and conflicting objectives to preserve the past while fostering resilience for an uncertain future. This dilemma may be pronounced at range peripheries where rates of change are accelerated and ongoing invasions often are perceived as threats to local ecosystems. We provide an example from City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO) in southern Idaho, positioned at the northern range periphery of pinyon-juniper (P-J) woodland. Reserve managers are concerned about P-J woodland encroachment into adjacent sagebrush steppe, but the rates and biophysical variability of encroachment are not well documented and management options are not well understood. We quantified the rate and extent of woodland change between 1950 and 2009 based on a random sample of aerial photo interpretation plots distributed across biophysical gradients. Our study revealed that woodland cover remained at approximately 20% of the study area over the 59-year period. In the absence of disturbance, P-J woodlands exhibited the highest rate of increase among vegetation types at 0.37% yr⁻¹. Overall, late-successional P-J stands increased in area by over 100% through the process of densification (infilling). However, wildfires during the period resulted in a net decrease of woody evergreen vegetation, particularly among early and mid-successional P-J stands. Elevated wildfire risk associated with expanding novel annual grasslands and drought is likely to continue to be a fundamental driver of change in CIRO woodlands. Because P-J woodlands contribute to regional biodiversity and may contract at trailing edges with global warming, CIRO may become important to P-J woodland conservation in the future. Our study provides a widely applicable toolset for assessing woodland ecotone dynamics that can help managers reconcile the competing demands to maintain historical fidelity and contribute meaningfully to the U.S. protected area network in a future with novel, no-analog ecosystems.

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

Ecological responses to climate change may depend on complex patterns of variability in weather and local microclimate that overlay global increases in mean temperature. Here, we show that high-resolution temporal and spatial variability in temperature drives the dynamics of range expansion for an exemplar species, the butterfly Hesperia comma. Using fine-resolution (5 m) models of vegetation surface microclimate, we estimate the thermal suitability of 906 habitat patches at the species' range margin for 27 years. Population and metapopulation models that incorporate this dynamic microclimate surface improve predictions of observed annual changes to population density and patch occupancy dynamics during the species' range expansion from 1982 to 2009. Our findings reveal how fine-scale, short-term environmental variability drives rates and patterns of range expansion through spatially localised, intermittent episodes of expansion and contraction. Incorporating dynamic microclimates can thus improve models of species range shifts at spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation interventions.

Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree-line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models

Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise.

Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: a guide to initiating the adaptation planning process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.

Ancient DNA from lake sediments: bridging the gap between paleoecology and genetics

Background

Quaternary plant ecology in much of the world has historically relied on morphological identification of macro- and microfossils from sediments of small freshwater lakes. Here, we report new protocols that reliably yield DNA sequence data from Holocene plant macrofossils and bulk lake sediment used to infer ecological change. This will allow changes in census populations, estimated from fossils and associated sediment, to be directly associated with population genetic changes.

Results

We successfully sequenced DNA from 64 samples (out of 126) comprised of bulk sediment and seeds, leaf fragments, budscales, and samaras extracted from Holocene lake sediments in the western Great Lakes region of North America. Overall, DNA yields were low. However, we were able to reliably amplify samples with as few as 10 copies of a short cpDNA fragment with little detectable PCR inhibition. Our success rate was highest for sediments < 2000 years old, but we were able to successfully amplify DNA from samples up to 4600 years old. DNA sequences matched the taxonomic identity of the macrofossil from which they were extracted 79% of the time. Exceptions suggest that DNA molecules from surrounding nearby sediments may permeate or adhere to macrofossils in sediments.

Conclusions

An ability to extract ancient DNA from Holocene sediments potentially allows exciting new insights into the genetic consequences of long-term environmental change. The low DNA copy numbers we found in fossil material and the discovery of multiple sequence variants from single macrofossil extractions highlight the need for careful experimental and laboratory protocols. Further application of these protocols should lead to better understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences of environmental change.

Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

Historical fire and multidecadal drought as context for piñon-juniper woodland restoration in western Colorado

Fire is known to structure tree populations, but the role of broad-scale climate variability is less clear. For example, the influence of climatic "teleconnections" (the relationship between oceanic-atmospheric fluctuations and anomalous weather patterns across broad scales) on forest age structure is relatively unexplored. We sampled semiarid piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus osteosperma) woodlands in western Colorado, U.S.A., to test the hypothesis that woodland age structures are shaped by climate, including links to oceanic-atmospheric fluctuations, and by past fires and livestock grazing. Low-severity surface fire was lacking, as fire scars were absent, and did not influence woodland densities, but stand-replacing fires served as long-rotation (>400-600 years), stand-initiating events. Old-growth stands (>300 years old) were found in 75% of plots, consistent with a long fire rotation. Juniper and piñon age structures suggest contrasting responses during the past several centuries to dry and wet episodes linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Juniper density increased slightly during periods of drought, positive (warm) AMO (after approximately 10-year lag), and negative (cool) PDO. In contrast, piñon populations may still be recovering from a long, drought-filled period (AD 1620-1820), with pulses of recovery favored during cool AMO, warm PDO, and above-average moisture periods. Analysis of 20th-century tree establishment and instrumental climate data corroborate the long-term relationships between age structure and climate. After Euro-American settlement (AD 1881), livestock grazing reduced understory grasses and forbs, reducing competition with tree seedlings and facilitating climate-induced increases in piñons. Thus tree populations in these woodlands are in flux, affected by drought and wet periods linked to oceanic-atmospheric variability, Euro-American livestock grazing, and long-rotation, high-severity fires. Reductions in livestock grazing levels may aid ecological restoration efforts. However, given long-term fluctuations in tree density and composition, and expected further drought, thinning or burning to reduce tree populations may be misdirected.

Multiscale analysis of tree cover and aboveground carbon stocks in pinyon-juniper woodlands

Regional, high-resolution mapping of vegetation cover and biomass is central to understanding changes to the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, especially in the context of C management. The third most extensive vegetation type in the United States is pinyon-juniper (P-J) woodland, yet the spatial patterns of tree cover and aboveground biomass (AGB) of P-J systems are poorly quantified. We developed a synoptic remote-sensing approach to scale up pinyon and juniper projected cover (hereafter "cover") and AGB field observations from plot to regional levels using fractional photosynthetic vegetation (PV) cover derived from airborne imaging spectroscopy and Landsat satellite data. Our results demonstrated strong correlations (P < 0.001) between field cover and airborne PV estimates (r2 = 0.92), and between airborne and satellite PV estimates (r2 = 0.61). Field data also indicated that P-J AGB can be estimated from canopy cover using a unified allometric equation (r2 = 0.69; P < 0.001). Using these multiscale cover-AGB relationships, we developed high-resolution, regional maps of P-J cover and AGB for the western Colorado Plateau. The P-J cover was 27.4% +/- 9.9% (mean +/- SD), and the mean aboveground woody C converted from AGB was 5.2 +/- 2.0 Mg C/ha. Combining our data with the southwest Regional Gap Analysis Program vegetation map, we estimated that total contemporary woody C storage for P-J systems throughout the Colorado Plateau (113 600 km2) is 59.0 +/- 22.7 Tg C. Our results show how multiple remote-sensing observations can be used to map cover and C stocks at high resolution in drylands, and they highlight the role of P-J ecosystems in the North American C budget.

Geographical and climatic limits of needle types of one- and two-needled pinyon pines

AIM: The geographical extent and climatic tolerances of one- and two-needled pinyon pines (Pinus subsect. Cembroides) are the focus of questions in taxonomy, palaeoclimatology and modelling of future distributions. The identification of these pines, traditionally classified by one- versus two-needled fascicles, is complicated by populations with both one- and two-needled fascicles on the same tree, and the description of two more recently described one-needled varieties: the fallax-type and californiarum-type. Because previous studies have suggested correlations between needle anatomy and climate, including anatomical plasticity reflecting annual precipitation, we approached this study at the level of the anatomy of individual pine needles rather than species. LOCATION: Western North America. METHODS: We synthesized available and new data from field and herbarium collections of needles to compile maps of their current distributions across western North America. Annual frequencies of needle types were compared with local precipitation histories for some stands. Historical North American climates were modelled on a c. 1-km grid using monthly temperature and precipitation values. A geospatial model (ClimLim), which analyses the effect of climate-modulated physiological and ecosystem processes, was used to rank the importance of seasonal climate variables in limiting the distributions of anatomical needle types. RESULTS: The pinyon needles were classified into four distinct types based upon the number of needles per fascicle, needle thickness and the number of stomatal rows and resin canals. The individual needles fit well into four categories of needle types, whereas some trees exhibit a mixture of two needle types. Trees from central Arizona containing a mixture of Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles increased their percentage of fallax-type needles following dry years. All four needle types occupy broader geographical regions with distinctive precipitation regimes. Pinus monophylla and californiarum-type needles occur in regions with high winter precipitation. Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles are found in regions with high monsoon precipitation. Areas supporting californiarum-type and fallax-type needle distributions are additionally characterized by a more extreme May-June drought. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: These pinyon needle types seem to reflect the amount and seasonality of precipitation. The single needle fascicle characterizing the fallax type may be an adaptation to early summer or periodic drought, while the single needle of Pinus monophylla may be an adaptation to summer-autumn drought. Although the needles fit into four distinct categories, the parent trees are sometimes less easily classified, especially near their ancestral Pleistocene ranges in the Mojave and northern Sonoran deserts. The abundance of trees with both one- and two-needled fascicles in the zones between P. monophylla, P. edulis and fallax-type populations suggest that needle fascicle number is an unreliable characteristic for species classification. Disregarding needle fascicle number, the fallax-type needles are nearly identical to P. edulis, supporting Little's (1968) initial classification of these trees as P. edulis var. fallax, while the californiarum-type needles have a distinctive morphology supporting Bailey's (1987) classification of this tree as Pinus californiarum.

Human Impacts in Pine Forests: Past, Present, and Future

Pines (genus Pinus) form the dominant tree cover over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Human activities have affected the distribution, composition, and structure of pine forests for millennia. Different human-mediated factors have affected different pine species in different ways in different regions. The most important factors affecting pine forests are altered fire regimes, altered grazing/browsing regimes, various harvesting/construction activities, land clearance and abandonment, purposeful planting and other manipulations of natural ecosystems, alteration of biotas through species reshuffling, and pollution. These changes are occurring against a backdrop of natural and anthropogenically driven climate change. We review past and current influence of humans in pine forests, seeking broad generalizations. These insights are combined with perspectives from paleoecology to suggest probable trajectories in the face of escalating human pressure. The immense scale of impacts and the complex synergies between agents of change calls for urgent and multifaceted action.

Seasonal variations in moisture use in a piñon-juniper woodland

In water-limited environments of the intermountain region of North America, summer precipitation may play a role in the structure and function of aridland communities and ecosystems. This study examined the potential reliance on summer precipitation of two widespread, coexisting woody species in the southwestern United States, Pinus edulis Englmn. (Colorado piñon) and Juniperus osteosperma (Torr) Little (Utah juniper). The current distributions of P. edulis and J. osteosperma are highly suggestive of different dependencies on summer rainfall. We hypothesized that P. edulis was dependent on summer precipitation, utilizing summer precipitation even during extremely dry summers, whereas J. osteosperma was not dependent, using summer precipitation only when amounts were above some minimum threshold. Using sap flux and stable isotopic methods to assess seasonal water sources and water use efficiency, we examined the response of these two species to seasonal variations in moisture at a site located near the northern limits of the North American monsoon. Both sap flux and isotopic results indicated that P. edulis was responsive to summer rain, while J. osteosperma was not. Following summer rain events, sap flux density increased in P. edulis for several days, but not in J. osteosperma. Isotopic evidence indicated that P. edulis took up summer-derived moisture to a greater extent than J. osteosperma. Values of the natural abundance stable isotope ratio of carbon of leaf soluble carbohydrates increased over the summer for P. edulis, indicative of assimilation at higher water use efficiency, but were invariant for J. osteosperma. Our results supported the hypothesis that P. edulis and J. osteosperma are differentially sensitive to summer precipitation and are discussed in the light of potential changes in the seasonality of precipitation associated with climate change.

Episodic death across species of desert shrubs

Extreme events shape population and community trajectories. We report episodic mortality across common species of thousands of long-lived perennials individually tagged and monitored for 20 years in the Colorado Desert of California following severe regional drought. Demographic records from 1984 to 2004 show 15 years of virtual stasis in populations of adult shrubs and cacti, punctuated by a 55-100% die-off of six of the seven most common perennial species. In this episode, adults that experienced reduced growth in a lesser drought during 1984-1989 failed to survive the drought of 2002. The significance of this event is potentially profound because population dynamics of long-lived plants can be far more strongly affected by deaths of adults, which in deserts potentially live for centuries, than by seedling births or deaths. Differential mortality and rates of recovery during and after extreme climatic events quite likely determine the species composition of plant and associated animal communities for at least decades. The die-off recorded in this closely monitored community provides a unique window into the mechanics of this process of species decline and replacement.

What is natural? The need for a long-term perspective in biodiversity conservation

Ecosystems change in response to factors such as climate variability, invasions, and wildfires. Most records used to assess such change are based on short-term ecological data or satellite imagery spanning only a few decades. In many instances it is impossible to disentangle natural variability from other, potentially significant trends in these records, partly because of their short time scale. We summarize recent studies that show how paleoecological records can be used to provide a longer temporal perspective to address specific conservation issues relating to biological invasions, wildfires, climate change, and determination of natural variability. The use of such records can reduce much of the uncertainty surrounding the question of what is "natural" and thereby start to provide important guidance for long-term management and conservation.