Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

Shared friends counterbalance shared enemies in old forests

Mycorrhizal mutualisms are nearly ubiquitous across plant communities. Yet, it is still unknown whether facilitation among plants arises primarily from these mycorrhizal networks or from physical and ecological attributes of plants themselves. Here, we tested the relative contributions of mycorrhizae and plants to both positive and negative biotic interactions to determine whether plant-soil feedbacks with mycorrhizae neutralize competition and enemies within multitrophic forest community networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear modeling to examine mycorrhizal-guild-specific and mortality-cause-specific woody plant survival compiled from a spatially and temporally explicit data set comprising 101,096 woody plants from three mixed-conifer forests across western North America. We found positive plant-soil feedbacks for large-diameter trees: species-rich woody plant communities indirectly promoted large tree survival when connected via mycorrhizal networks. Shared mycorrhizae primarily counterbalanced apparent competition mediated by tree enemies (e.g., bark beetles, soil pathogens) rather than diffuse competition between plants. We did not find the same survival benefits for small trees or shrubs. Our findings suggest that lower large-diameter tree mortality susceptibility in species-rich temperate forests resulted from greater access to shared mycorrhizal networks. The interrelated importance of aboveground and belowground biodiversity to large tree survival may be critical for counteracting increasing pathogen, bark beetle, and density threats.

Frequency-dependent tree growth depends on climate

Climate and competition interact to affect species' performance, such as growth and survival, and help determine species distributions and coexistence. However, it is unclear how climatic conditions modulate frequency-dependent performance, that is, how performance changes as a species becomes locally rare or common. This is critical because declines in performance as a species becomes more common (negative frequency dependence) is a signature of niche differences among species that stabilize coexistence, whereas positive frequency dependence leads to priority effects and hampers species coexistence. Here, we used dendrochronology and hierarchical models to test whether frequency-dependent growth of sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana) depends on climatic conditions. We found that growth rates were strongly dependent on annual precipitation, but no frequency dependence was evident across all years. However, there was a strong interaction between precipitation and frequency dependence, revealing stabilizing niche differences in dry years but positive frequency dependence in wet years. These differences emerged because of precipitation-driven changes in the direction and strength of both con- and heterospecific competition. Overall, these results show how stabilizing and destabilizing effects can be temporally dynamic for long-lived species and interact with climate variation.

Complementarity effects are strengthened by competition intensity and global environmental change in the central boreal forests of Canada

Increases in niche complementarity have been hypothesised to reduce the intensity of interspecific competition within natural forests. In regions currently experiencing potentially enhanced growth under global environmental change, niche complementarity may become even more beneficial. However, few studies have provided direct evidence of this mechanism. Here, we use data from 180 permanent sample plots in Manitoba, Canada, with a full spatial mapping of all stems, to show that complementarity effects on average increased with neighbourhood competition intensity and temporally rising CO₂ , warming and water availability. Importantly, complementarity effects increased with both shade tolerance and phylogenetic dissimilarity between the focal tree and its neighbours. Our results provide further evidence that increasing stand functional and phylogenetic diversity can improve individual tree productivity, especially for individuals experiencing intense competition and may offer an avenue to maintain productivity under global environmental change.

Nitrogen deposition changes the distribution of key plant species in the meadow steppe in Hulunbeier, China

Improved understanding of how nutrient levels affect the distribution of plants can provide important insights into the potential impacts of increasing global nitrogen (N) deposition. We used point pattern analyses to examine the impact of nutrient addition on heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the three main plant species of the meadow steppe community of Hulunbeier, Inner Mongolia: Leymus chinensis (Trin.) Tzvel (aka Aneurotepidimu chinense), a rhizamotous grass; Stipa baicalensis Rasher, a bunch grass; and Artemisia tanacetifolia Linn, a rhizamotous forb. The six treatments tested added nitrogen N in three different concentrations, N with phosphorus (P), P alone and a Control. Although the three plant species were randomly distributed at the start of the experiment in 2011, the spatial distribution of some species in some treatments had changed at the end of 3 years of nutrient addition. There was a significant increase in aggregation of L. chinensis at fine scales of analysis from application of N and P in tandem. However, S. baicalensis and A. tanacetifolia distributions remained random under all treatments. Positive associations of L. chinensis with S. baicalensis and with A. tanacetifolia were apparent at the lowest concentration of added N, 2.5 g N m–2 year–1, which represented an approximate doubling of global N deposition. These associations, which represent clustering among individuals of these species were also apparent where only P was applied. Negative associations, representing dispersion, were prevalent with higher N concentrations. The results indicate that increases in global N deposition up to about double current levels may have a positive influence on meadow steppe communities by increasing the niche overlap of different species. However, increases beyond that level may trigger substantial ecological change through increased competition for other, more limited, environmental resources, and disassociation between plants of the different dominant species. Our findings suggest that studies of the spatial patterning of plant communities can contribute to understanding the potential impacts of climate change.

The genetics of drought tolerance in conifers

Contents 1034 I. 1034 II. 1035 III. 1037 IV. 1038 V. 1042 VI. 1043 VII. 1045 References 1045 SUMMARY: As temperatures warm and precipitation patterns shift as a result of climate change, interest in the identification of tree genotypes that will thrive under more arid conditions has grown. In this review, we discuss the multiple definitions of 'drought tolerance' and the biological processes involved in drought responses. We describe the three major approaches taken in the study of genetic variation in drought responses, the advantages and shortcomings of each, and what each of these approaches has revealed about the genetic basis of adaptation to drought in conifers. Finally, we discuss how a greater knowledge of the genetics of drought tolerance may aid forest management, and provide recommendations for how future studies may overcome the limitations of past approaches. In particular, we urge a more direct focus on survival, growth and the traits that directly predict them (rather than on proxies, such as water use efficiency), combining research approaches with complementary strengths and weaknesses, and the inclusion of a wider range of taxa and life stages.

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1-100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality

The drivers of background tree mortality rates-the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought-are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the "ambient" or "random" background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots.

Towards a common methodology for developing logistic tree mortality models based on ring-width data

Tree mortality is a key process shaping forest dynamics. Thus, there is a growing need for indicators of the likelihood of tree death. During the last decades, an increasing number of tree-ring based studies have aimed to derive growth-mortality functions, mostly using logistic models. The results of these studies, however, are difficult to compare and synthesize due to the diversity of approaches used for the sampling strategy (number and characteristics of alive and death observations), the type of explanatory growth variables included (level, trend, etc.), and the length of the time window (number of years preceding the alive/death observation) that maximized the discrimination ability of each growth variable. We assess the implications of key methodological decisions when developing tree-ring based growth-mortality relationships using logistic mixed-effects regression models. As examples, we use published tree-ring datasets from Abies alba (13 different sites), Nothofagus dombeyi (one site), and Quercus petraea (one site). Our approach is based on a constant sampling size and aims at (1) assessing the dependency of growth-mortality relationships on the statistical sampling scheme used, (2) determining the type of explanatory growth variables that should be considered, and (3) identifying the best length of the time window used to calculate them. The performance of tree-ring-based mortality models was reasonably high for all three species (area under the receiving operator characteristics curve, AUC > 0.7). Growth level variables were the most important predictors of mortality probability for two species (A. alba, N. dombeyi), while growth-trend variables need to be considered for Q. petraea. In addition, the length of the time window used to calculate each growth variable was highly uncertain and depended on the sampling scheme, as some growth-mortality relationships varied with tree age. The present study accounts for the main sampling-related biases to determine reliable species-specific growth-mortality relationships. Our results highlight the importance of using a sampling strategy that is consistent with the research question. Moving towards a common methodology for developing reliable growth-mortality relationships is an important step towards improving our understanding of tree mortality across species and its representation in dynamic vegetation models.

Climate change-associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability

Temporal increases of tree mortality have been observed in regions where global warming has decreased long-term water availability and/or induced droughts. However, temporal decreases in water availability are not a global phenomenon. Understanding how water deficit-free forests respond to the recent effects of climate change is paramount towards a full appreciation of the impacts of climate change on global forests. Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long-term water availability has increased without apparent climate change-associated drought. In addition, we find that the effects of conspecific tree-to-tree competition have intensified temporally as a mechanism for the increased mortality of shade-intolerant tree species. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics.

Spatially nonrandom tree mortality and ingrowth maintain equilibrium pattern in an old-growth Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest

Mortality processes in old-growth forests are generally assumed to be driven by gap-scale disturbance, with only a limited role ascribed to density-dependent mortality, but these assumptions are rarely tested with data sets incorporating repeated measurements. Using a 12-ha spatially explicit plot censused 13 years apart in an approximately 500-year-old Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest, we demonstrate significant density-dependent mortality and spatially aggregated tree recruitment. However, the combined effect of these strongly nonrandom demographic processes was to maintain tree patterns in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Density-dependent mortality was most pronounced for the dominant late-successional species, Tsuga heterophylla. The long-lived, early-seral Pseudotsuga menziesii experienced an annual stem mortality rate of 0.84% and no new recruitment. Late-seral species Tsuga and Abies amabilis had nearly balanced demographic rates of ingrowth and mortality. The 2.34% mortality rate for Taxus brevifolia was higher than expected, notably less than ingrowth, and strongly affected by proximity to Tsuga. Large-diameter Tsuga structured both the regenerating conspecific and heterospecific cohorts with recruitment of Tsuga and Abies unlikely in neighborhoods crowded with large-diameter competitors (P < 0.001). Density-dependent competitive interactions strongly shape forest communities even five centuries after stand initiation, underscoring the dynamic nature of even equilibrial old-growth forests.

Beyond reducing fire hazard: fuel treatment impacts on overstory tree survival

Fuel treatment implementation in dry forest types throughout the western United States is likely to increase in pace and scale in response to increasing incidence of large wildfires. While it is clear that properly implemented fuel treatments are effective at reducing hazardous fire potential, there are ancillary ecological effects that can impact forest resilience either positively or negatively depending on the specific elements examined, as well as treatment type, timing, and intensity. In this study, we use overstory tree growth responses, measured seven years after the most common fuel treatments, to estimate forest health. Across the five species analyzed, observed mortality and future vulnerability were consistently low in the mechanical- only treatment. Fire-only was similar to the control for all species except Douglas-fir, while mechanical-plus-fire had high observed mortality and future vulnerability for white fir and sugar pine. Given that overstory trees largely dictate the function of forests and services they provide (e.g., wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, soil stability) these results have implications for understanding longer-term impacts of common fuel treatments on forest resilience.

Regional variation in forest harvest regimes in the northeastern United States

Logging is a larger cause of adult tree mortality in northeastern U.S. forests than all other causes of mortality combined. We used Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to develop statistical models to quantify three different aspects of aggregate regional forest harvest regimes: (1) the annual probability that a plot is logged, as a function of total aboveground tree biomass, (2) the fraction of adult tree basal area removed if a plot was logged, and (3) the probability that an individual tree within a plot was removed, as a function of the fraction of basal area removed at the plot level, the species of tree, and its size. Results confirm that relatively frequent partial harvesting dominates the logging regimes, but with significant variation among different parts of the region and different forest types. The harvest regimes have similarities with natural disturbance regimes in imposing spatially and temporally dynamic mortality that varies predictably as a function of stand structure as well as tree species and size.

Patterns and drivers of tree mortality in iberian forests: climatic effects are modified by competition

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions.

Forest dynamics of a subtropical monsoon forest in Dinghushan, China: recruitment, mortality and the pace of community change

Structure and demographics in many tropical forests is changing, but the causes of these changes remain unclear. We studied 5 y (2005–2010) of species turnover, recruitment, mortality and population change data from a 20-ha subtropical forest plot in Dinghushan, China, to identify trends in forest change, and to test whether tree mortality is associated with intraspecific or interspecific competition. We found the Dinghushan forest to be more dynamic than one temperate and two tropical forests in a comparison of large, long-term forest dynamics plots. Within Dinghushan, size-class distributions were bell-shaped only for the three most dominant species and reverse J-shaped for other species. Bell-shaped population distributions can indicate a population in decline, but our data suggest that these large and long-lived species are not in decline because the pattern is driven by increasing probabilities of transition to larger size class with increasing size and fast growth in saplings. Spatially aggregated tree species distributions were common for surviving and dead individuals. Competitive associations were more frequently intraspecific than interspecific. The competition that induced tree mortality was more associated with intraspecific than interspecific interactions. Intraspecific competitive exclusion and density-dependence appear to play important roles in tree mortality in this subtropical forest.

Ecological importance of large-diameter trees in a temperate mixed-conifer forest

Large-diameter trees dominate the structure, dynamics and function of many temperate and tropical forests. Although both scaling theory and competition theory make predictions about the relative composition and spatial patterns of large-diameter trees compared to smaller diameter trees, these predictions are rarely tested. We established a 25.6 ha permanent plot within which we tagged and mapped all trees ≥1 cm dbh, all snags ≥10 cm dbh, and all shrub patches ≥2 m². We sampled downed woody debris, litter, and duff with line intercept transects. Aboveground live biomass of the 23 woody species was 507.9 Mg/ha, of which 503.8 Mg/ha was trees (SD = 114.3 Mg/ha) and 4.1 Mg/ha was shrubs. Aboveground live and dead biomass was 652.0 Mg/ha. Large-diameter trees comprised 1.4% of individuals but 49.4% of biomass, with biomass dominated by Abies concolor and Pinus lambertiana (93.0% of tree biomass). The large-diameter component dominated the biomass of snags (59.5%) and contributed significantly to that of woody debris (36.6%). Traditional scaling theory was not a good model for either the relationship between tree radii and tree abundance or tree biomass. Spatial patterning of large-diameter trees of the three most abundant species differed from that of small-diameter conspecifics. For A. concolor and P. lambertiana, as well as all trees pooled, large-diameter and small-diameter trees were spatially segregated through inter-tree distances <10 m. Competition alone was insufficient to explain the spatial patterns of large-diameter trees and spatial relationships between large-diameter and small-diameter trees. Long-term observations may reveal regulation of forest biomass and spatial structure by fire, wind, pathogens, and insects in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forests. Sustaining ecosystem functions such as carbon storage or provision of specialist species habitat will likely require different management strategies when the functions are performed primarily by a few large trees as opposed to many smaller trees.

Local-scale drivers of tree survival in a temperate forest

Tree survival plays a central role in forest ecosystems. Although many factors such as tree size, abiotic and biotic neighborhoods have been proposed as being important in explaining patterns of tree survival, their contributions are still subject to debate. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relative importance of tree size, local abiotic conditions and the density and identity of neighbors on tree survival in an old-growth temperate forest in northeastern China at three levels (community, guild and species). Tree size and both abiotic and biotic neighborhood variables influenced tree survival under current forest conditions, but their relative importance varied dramatically within and among the community, guild and species levels. Of the variables tested, tree size was typically the most important predictor of tree survival, followed by biotic and then abiotic variables. The effect of tree size on survival varied from strongly positive for small trees (1-20 cm dbh) and medium trees (20-40 cm dbh), to slightly negative for large trees (>40 cm dbh). Among the biotic factors, we found strong evidence for negative density and frequency dependence in this temperate forest, as indicated by negative effects of both total basal area of neighbors and the frequency of conspecific neighbors. Among the abiotic factors tested, soil nutrients tended to be more important in affecting tree survival than topographic variables. Abiotic factors generally influenced survival for species with relatively high abundance, for individuals in smaller size classes and for shade-tolerant species. Our study demonstrates that the relative importance of variables driving patterns of tree survival differs greatly among size classes, species guilds and abundance classes in temperate forest, which can further understanding of forest dynamics and offer important insights into forest management.

Size-specific tree mortality varies with neighbourhood crowding and disturbance in a Montane Nothofagus forest

Tree mortality is a fundamental process governing forest dynamics, but understanding tree mortality patterns is challenging because large, long-term datasets are required. Describing size-specific mortality patterns can be especially difficult, due to few trees in larger size classes. We used permanent plot data from Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides (mountain beech) forest on the eastern slopes of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, where the fates of trees on 250 plots of 0.04 ha were followed, to examine: (1) patterns of size-specific mortality over three consecutive periods spanning 30 years, each characterised by different disturbance, and (2) the strength and direction of neighbourhood crowding effects on size-specific mortality rates. We found that the size-specific mortality function was U-shaped over the 30-year period as well as within two shorter periods characterised by small-scale pinhole beetle and windthrow disturbance. During a third period, characterised by earthquake disturbance, tree mortality was less size dependent. Small trees (<20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die, in all three periods, if surrounded by a high basal area of larger neighbours, suggesting that size-asymmetric competition for light was a major cause of mortality. In contrast, large trees (≥20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die in the first period if they had few neighbours, indicating that positive crowding effects were sometimes important for survival of large trees. Overall our results suggest that temporal variability in size-specific mortality patterns, and positive interactions between large trees, may sometimes need to be incorporated into models of forest dynamics.

Stand- and tree-level determinants of the drought response of Scots pine radial growth

Characterizing the responses of key tree species to extreme climatic events may provide important information for predicting future forest responses to increased climatic variability. Here we aimed at determining which tree- and stand-level attributes were more closely associated with the effect of a severe drought on the radial growth of Scots pine, both in terms of immediate impact and recovery after the drought event. Our dataset included tree-ring series from 393 plots located close to the dry limit of the species range. Time series analysis and mixed-effects models were used to study the growth of each tree and its detailed response to a severe drought event that occurred in 1986. Our results showed that the radial growth responses of Scots pine were determined primarily by tree-level characteristics, such as age and previous growth rate, and secondarily by stand basal area and species richness, whereas local climate had a relatively minor effect. Fast-growing trees were more severely affected by the drought and retained proportionally lower growth rates up to three years after the episode. In absolute terms, however, fast-growing trees performed better both during and after the event. Older trees were found to be less resilient to drought. The effect of stand basal area and species richness indicated that competition for resources worsened the effects of drought, and suggested that the effect of interspecific competition may be particularly detrimental during the drought year.

Stand-structural effects on Heterobasidion abietinum-related mortality following drought events in Abies pinsapo

Climate change may affect tree-pathogen interactions. This possibility has important implications for drought-prone forests, where stand dynamics and disease pathogenicity are especially sensitive to climatic stress. In addition, stand structural attributes including density-dependent tree-to-tree competition may modulate the stands' resistance to drought events and pathogen outbreaks. To assess the effects of stand structure on root-rot-related mortality after severe droughts, we focused on Heterobasidion abietinum mortality in relict Spanish stands of Abies pinsapo, a drought-sensitive fir. We compared stand attributes and tree spatial patterns in three plots with H. abietinum root-rot disease and three plots without root-rot. Point-pattern analyses were used to investigate the scale and extent of mortality patterns and to test hypotheses related to the spread of the disease. Dendrochronology was used to date the year of death and to assess the association between droughts and growth decline. We applied a structural equation modelling approach to test if tree mortality occurs more rapidly than predicted by a simple distance model when trees are subjected to high tree-to-tree competition and following drought events. Contrary to expectations of drought mortality, the effect of precipitation on the year of death was strong and negative, indicating that a period of high precipitation induced an earlier tree death. Competition intensity, related to the size and density of neighbour trees, also induced an earlier tree death. The effect of distance to the disease focus was negligible except in combination with intensive competition. Our results indicate that infected trees have decreased ability to withstand drought stress, and demonstrate that tree-to-tree competition and fungal infection act as predisposing factors of forest decline and mortality.