Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Sap flow velocities of Acer saccharum and Quercus velutina during drought: Insights and implications from a throughfall exclusion experiment in West Virginia, USA

Forest species composition mediates evapotranspiration and the amount of water available to human-use downstream. In the last century, the heavily forested Appalachian region has been undergoing forest mesophication which is the progressive replacement of xeric species (e.g. black oak (Quercus velutina)) by mesic species (e.g. sugar maple (Acer saccharum)). Given differences between xeric and mesic species in water use efficiency and rainfall interception losses, investigating the consequences of these species shifts on water cycles is critical to improving predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. To meet this need, we quantified the degree to which the sap velocities of two dominant broadleaved species (sugar maple and black oak) in West Virginia, responded to ambient and experimentally altered soil moisture conditions using a throughfall exclusion experiment. We then used these data to explore how predictions of future climate under two emissions scenarios could affect forest evapotranspiration rates. Overall, we found that the maples had higher sap velocity rates than the oaks. Sap velocity in maples showed a stronger sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), particularly at high levels of VPD, than sap velocity in oaks. Experimentally induced reductions in shallow soil moisture did not have a relevant impact on sap velocity. In response to future climate scenarios of increased vapor pressure deficits in the Central Appalachian Mountains, our results highlight the different degrees to which two important tree species will increase transpiration, and potentially reduce the water available to the heavily populated areas downstream.

The biodiversity and ecosystem service contributions and trade-offs of forest restoration approaches

Forest restoration is being scaled-up globally to deliver critical ecosystem services and biodiversity benefits, yet we lack rigorous comparison of co-benefit delivery across different restoration approaches. In a global synthesis, we use 25,950 matched data pairs from 264 studies in 53 countries to assess how delivery of climate, soil, water, and wood production services as well as biodiversity compares across a range of tree plantations and native forests. Carbon storage, water provisioning, and especially soil erosion control and biodiversity benefits are all delivered better by native forests, with compositionally simpler, younger plantations in drier regions performing particularly poorly. However, plantations exhibit an advantage in wood production. These results underscore important trade-offs among environmental and production goals that policymakers must navigate in meeting forest restoration commitments.

Effects of forest growth in different vegetation communities on forest catchment water balance

Forest ecosystems are critical for adjusting the dynamic balance of the hydrological cycle. This balance is affected by vegetation community types, phenology, and forest density. Previous long-term catchment-scale model studies have focused on changes in forest areas while ignoring the above factors. Since the 1980s, climate change caused by increases in atmospheric CO₂ levels has enhanced forest growth. Moreover, amendments to forest management policies, including intermediate cuttings caused by economic factors, have yielded unprecedented changes in forest ecosystems. In this study, we designed a methodology and created a credible model using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that can precisely reflect water balance variations caused by different ecosystem situations during long-term changes in forest density. We focused on the Yamato River catchment in Western Japan, which includes three planted forests and one primeval forest, each markedly different with respect to vegetation community composition and management policy. In the process, we examined the ratio of coniferous vegetation and broad-leaved vegetation in different forest areas, used remote sensing methods to quantify the maximum and minimum leaf area index (LAI) of each forest region over 40 years, and calibrated the model by comparing the LAI growth curve, evapotranspiration, and streamflow with observed data. Moreover, we separated the decadal canopy evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation from the SWAT output results. We found that (1) forest evapotranspiration has increased in recent decades because of the above reasons; (2) in young or well-managed forests, the forest water balance may have changed significantly with forest growth. For long-term studies, it is necessary to distinguish the growth characteristics of different forests during different periods, and a detailed definition of a mixed forest is required. The forest parameters and growth characteristics are critical for understanding forest ecosystems and cannot be ignored at catchment-scale.

Non-Structural Flood Management in European Rural Mountain Areas—Are Scientists Supporting Implementation?

Mountain areas are highly exposed to flood risks. The latter are increasing in the context of climate change, urbanization, and land use changes. Non-structural approaches such as nature-based solutions can provide opportunities to reduce the risks of such natural hazards and provide further ecological, social, and economic benefits. However, few non-structural flood mitigation measures are implemented in rural mountain areas so far. The objective of this paper is to investigate if the scientific boundaries limit the implementation of non-structural flood management in rural mountain areas. In the study, we statistically analyzed the knowledge about flood management through a systematic literature review and expert surveys, with a focus on European rural mountain areas. Both methods showed that scientific knowledge is available for decision makers and that nature-based solutions are efficient, cost-effective, multifunctional, and have potential for large-scale implementation.

Removing riparian Rhododendron maximum in post-Tsuga canadensis riparian forests does not degrade water quality in southern Appalachian streams

In the past century, the evergreen woody shrub, Rhododendron maximum, has experienced habitat expansion following foundational tree species die-off in eastern US deciduous forests. Rhododendron can potentially alter stream chemistry, temperature, trophic dynamics, and in-stream decomposition rates, given its dominance in riparian areas. Here we conducted two operational-scale (3 ha) riparian treatments that removed rhododendron through cutting alone (CR, canopy removal), or removing both the rhododendron canopy and forest floor using cutting and prescribed fire (CFFR, canopy and forest floor removal). We expected that rhododendron shrub removal, with or without soil organic horizon removal, would increase soil nutrient availability and subsequently alter stream pH, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), inorganic nitrogen (NO₃-N, NH₄-N), total dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), calcium (Ca), potassium (K), and magnesium (Mg). We hypothesized that responses would occur more quickly in the CFFR treatment. Treatments reduced shrub-, but not tree basal area. Treatments lowered soil N, but not C. Stream chemistry responses to treatments varied between CR and CFFR and were transient, generally with pH, N, and some cations declining, and aluminum (Al) and DOC showing a pulse increase. By removing rhododendron, the remaining deciduous trees likely accelerated N uptake as soil moisture availability increased. This could partially explain why we observed lower than expected stream nutrients (NO₃-N, Ca, and Mg) after treatments. Initial rhododendron slash on the forest floor coupled with incomplete consumption of the O-horizon on the CFFR treatment likely elevated DOC in the upper soil horizons and mobilized Al. From a management perspective, using these treatments to restore structure and function to riparian forests in the wake of eastern hemlock mortality, with or without fire, would most likely not result in short-term diminished water quality that is common when overstory trees are harvested and may even lower stream NO₃-N concentrations long term.

Thermodynamic mathematical model of the Kastanozem complex and new principles of sustainable semiarid protective silviculture management

The Kastanozem complex in the dry steppe of southern Russia underlies an artificially-constructed forest strips. Deep ploughing to a depth of 45 cm was used to process the soil prior to planting. Between 20 and 40 cm depth, soil density was high, 1.57 t m^-3. Soil hardness was also high, 440 psi. Soil aggregates greater than 5 cm in size were impermeable to tree roots. The content of such aggregates was high, comprising 35%. The number of tree roots with diameters greater than 0.5 cm that cross the soil profile was as low as 0.15 to 0.3 pcs cm^-2. The soil matric potential signifying water availability was low in the vegetation period -0.9 MPa to a depth of 1.0 m. According to modelling experiments, the main salt components in the soil solution drive the transfer of soil organic matter (SOM) and heavy metals (HM). The composition of the soil solution determined by the calcium carbonate equilibrium (CCE) and the association and complexation of ions. ION-3 software was used to calculate the ion equilibrium in the soil solution. Macro-ions Cа²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄^2-, and CO₃^2- partly bonded as ion pairs. Oversaturation of the soil solution with CaCO₃ was calculated according to the analytical content of macro-ion, which was high up to 1000 units, and its value decreased in response to ionic strength, activity, association, complexation, and thermodynamic equilibrium of macro-ions in the soil solution. Oversaturation calculated for Salic Solonetz and Gleyic Solonetz soil solutions was small considering the SOM content. Calculations indicate the profile and lateral loss of C from the soil to the vadose zone. The content of Pb in the soil solution was calculated sirca 75%-80%. The calculated coefficient of Pb²⁺ association was as high as 52.0. The probability of Pb passivation by SOM in the Kastanozem complex was significant. The probability of uncontrolled transfer and accumulation of HM in the soil and vadose zone was high. Biogeosystem Technique (BGT*) transcendental methodology, an innovative methodology created for stable geomorphological system formation to achieve sustainable agriculture and silviculture, was applied. The BGT* elements were: intra-soil milling of the 30-60 cm soil layer for geophysical conditioning; intra-soil continuously-discrete pulse watering for plants and trees to improve the hydrologic regime. The BGT* methodology reduced HM mobility, controlled biodegradation, enriched nutrient biogeochemical cycling, increased C content, increased soil productivity, and reversible carbon sequester in biological form.

Twenty-First Century Streamflow and Climate Change in Forest Catchments of the Central Appalachian Mountains Region, US

Forested catchments are critical sources of freshwater used by society, but anthropogenic climate change can alter the amount of precipitation partitioned into streamflow and evapotranspiration, threatening their role as reliable fresh water sources. One such region in the eastern US is the heavily forested central Appalachian Mountains region that provides fresh water to local and downstream metropolitan areas. Despite the hydrological importance of this region, the sensitivity of forested catchments to climate change and the implications for long-term water balance partitioning are largely unknown. We used long-term historic (1950–2004) and future (2005–2099) ensemble climate and water balance data and a simple energy–water balance model to quantify streamflow sensitivity and project future streamflow changes for 29 forested catchments under two future Relative Concentration Pathways. We found that streamflow is expected to increase under the low-emission pathway and decrease under the high-emission pathway. Furthermore, despite the greater sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation, larger increases in atmospheric demand offset increases in precipitation-induced streamflow, resulting in moderate changes in long-term water availability in the future. Catchment-scale results are summarized across basins and the region to provide water managers and decision makers with information about climate change at scales relevant to decision making.

Assessing streamflow sensitivity of forested headwater catchments to disturbance and climate change in the central Appalachian Mountains region, USA

Forest headwater catchments are critical sources of water, but climate change and disturbance may threaten their ability to produce reliable and abundant water supplies. Quantifying how climate change and forest disturbances individually and interactively alter streamflow provides important insights into the stability and availability of water derived from headwater catchments that are particularly sensitive to change. We used long-term water balance data, forest inventory measurements, and a multiple-methods approach using Budyko decomposition and paired catchment models to assess how climate change and forest disturbances interact to alter streamflow in five headwater catchments located along a disturbance gradient in the Appalachian Mountains, USA. We found that disturbance was the dominant driver of streamflow changes; disturbed catchments were more sensitive to climate change than the undisturbed catchment; and disturbance was an important factor for a catchment's sensitivity to climate change, principally through changes in species composition and xylem anatomy. Streamflow sensitivity to climate change increased with increasing proportion of diffuse porous species, suggesting that not all disturbances are equal when it comes to streamflow sensitivity to climate change. Climate change effects were masked by disturbance in catchments with high magnitude/low frequency disturbances and amplified in a catchment with low magnitude/high frequency disturbance. Furthermore, critical assumptions of Budyko decomposition were assessed to evaluate the efficacy of applying decomposition to the headwater scale. Our study demonstrates the efficacy and usefulness of applying decomposition to scales potentially useful to resource managers and decision makers. Our study contributes to a more thorough understanding about the impacts of climate change on disturbed headwater catchments that will help managers to better prepare for and adapt to future changes.

Effects of Forest Thinning on the Long-Term Runoff Changes of Coniferous Forest Plantation

Forests and water are closely related to each other. Thus, forest management is crucial for the sustainable clean water supply. Forest thinning is one of the fundamental forest management practices, as it can change runoff by controlling the density of trees. In this study, the effect of forest thinning on long-term runoff changes was evaluated, based on the long-term rainfall-runoff data of a coniferous plantation forest catchment in Korea. From the double mass curve and Pettitt’s test, a statistically significant increase in runoff rates was identified. A simple linear regression model of the double mass curve can successfully quantify the net effect of forest thinning on the runoff increase. Furthermore, it was also confirmed that forest thinning does not significantly increase the risk of flooding. About ten years after forest thinning, crown closure rates of the coniferous plantation forest reached a level similar to the pre-thinning period, and runoff rates returned to the pre-thinning level, due to forest growth. As a result of this study, a proposed direction for Korea’s forest policy for water resource management is presented for the future.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 1: FLOW, WATER TEMPERATURE, SALTWATER INTRUSION

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on U.S. water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al. (2019), we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

Water Yield Responses to Gradual Changes in Forest Structure and Species Composition in a Subboreal Watershed in Northeastern China

Relationships between forest cover and streamflow have been studied worldwide, but only a few studies have examined how gradual changes in forest structure and species composition due to logging and climate change affect watershed water yield (Q) and flow regimes. In this study, we analyzed long-term (45 years) hydrologic, climate and forest dynamics data from the subboreal Tahe watershed in northeastern China. Our purpose was to evaluate the effects of forest logging and regeneration on changes in forest biomass and species and to quantify the subsequent impact on mean annual streamflow and flow regime under a changing climate. The study watershed was dominated by old-growth larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) during the 1970s, but gradually transformed into young deciduous larch mixed with deciduous broad-leaved birch (Betula platyphylla Sukaczev) during the 2010s. During the same period, the watershed experienced climate change with a significant increase in air temperature of 0.028 ℃/year. We applied eight sensitivity-based techniques to separate the effects of climate change on water yield from those due to forest changes. We used flow duration curves (FDCs) to characterize flow regimes by dividing the study into four key periods based on the proportional change of larch and birch trees. We found that the mean annual streamflow decreased by 10 mm (−16 mm attributed to forest change and +6 mm to climate change) between the 1984–1994 period and the 2006–2016 period when the proportion of birch increased by 20% with a similar total forest volume in the later period. The mean annual streamflow increased from 216 mm to 270 mm (+35.5 mm due to forest change vs +17.7 mm due to climate change) when forest volume decreased by 18.7% (17 m3/ha) between the 1970s and 1984–1994. Water yield changed only slightly (3.5 mm) when forest volume increased by 8.7% (6 m3/ha) from 2000 to 2011. In addition, the magnitude of high flow and low flow increased following deforestation and a shift in species composition from a period (1984–1994) with 70% larch with 30% birch to a later period (2006–2016) with 50% larch with 50% birch. Both high flow and low flow decreased coinciding with a reforestation period (2006–2016). Our results highlight complex interactions among climate, forest structure, total biomass, and plant diversity (trees species composition) in influencing watershed hydrology. Further study is needed to examine the effects of ecohydrological processes such as evapotranspiration in larch and birch forests on hydrologic changes across multiple scales.

The Cumulative Effects of Forest Disturbance and Climate Variability on Streamflow in the Deadman River Watershed

Climatic variability and cumulative forest cover change are the two dominant factors affecting hydrological variability in forested watersheds. Separating the relative effects of each factor on streamflow is gaining increasing attention. This study adds to the body of literature by quantifying the relative contributions of those two drivers to the changes in annual mean flow, low flow, and high flow in a large forested snow dominated watershed, the Deadman River watershed (878 km2) in the Southern Interior of British Columbia, Canada. Over the study period of 1962 to 2012, the cumulative effects of forest disturbance significantly affected the annual mean streamflow. The effects became statistically significant in 1989 at the cumulative forest disturbance level of 12.4% of the watershed area. The modified double mass curve and sensitivity-based methods consistently revealed that forest disturbance and climate variability both increased annual mean streamflow during the disturbance period (1989–2012), with an average increment of 14 mm and 6 mm, respectively. The paired-year approach was used to further investigate the relative contributions to low and high flows. Our analysis showed that low and high flow increased significantly by 19% and 58%, respectively over the disturbance period (p < 0.05). We conclude that forest disturbance and climate variability have significantly increased annual mean flow, low flow and high flow over the last 50 years in a cumulative and additive manner in the Deadman River watershed.

A REVIEW OF WATER QUALITY RESPONSES TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES 2: NUTRIENTS, ALGAL BLOOMS, SEDIMENT, PATHOGENS

In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many U.S. locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

Mapping Ecological Production and Benefits from Water Consumed in Agricultural and Natural Landscapes: A Case Study of the Pangani Basin

Scarcity of information on the water productivity of different water, land, and other ecosystems in Africa, hampers the optimal allocation of the limited water resources. This study presents an innovative method to quantify the spatial variability of biomass production, crop yield, and economic water productivity, in a data scarce landscape of the Pangani Basin. For the first time, gross return from carbon credits and other ecosystem services are considered, in the concept of Economic Water Productivity. The analysis relied on the MODIS satellite data of 250 m and eight-day resolutions, and the SEBAL model, utilizing Monteith’s framework for ecological production. In agriculture, irrigated sugarcane and rice achieved the highest water productivities in both biophysical and economic values. Rainfed and supplementary irrigated banana and maize productivities were significantly lower than the potential values, reflecting a wide spatial variability. In natural landscapes, forest and wetland showed the highest biomass production. However, the transition to economic productivity was low but showed the potential to increase significantly when non-market goods and services were considered. Spatially explicit information, from both biophysical and economic water productivity, provides a holistic outlook of the socio-environmental and the economic water values of a land-use activity, and can identify areas for improvement, and trade-offs in river basins.

Warmer temperatures reduce net carbon uptake, but do not affect water use, in a mature southern Appalachian forest

Increasing air temperature is expected to extend growing season length in temperate, broadleaf forests, leading to potential increases in evapotranspiration and net carbon uptake. However, other key processes affecting water and carbon cycles are also highly temperature-dependent. Warmer temperatures may result in higher ecosystem carbon loss through respiration and higher potential evapotranspiration through increased atmospheric demand for water. Thus, the net effects of a warming planet are uncertain and highly dependent on local climate and vegetation. We analyzed five years of data from the Coweeta eddy covariance tower in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, USA, a highly productive region that has historically been underrepresented in flux observation networks. We examined how leaf phenology and climate affect water and carbon cycling in a mature forest in one of the wettest biomes in North America. Warm temperatures in early 2012 caused leaf-out to occur two weeks earlier than in cooler years and led to higher seasonal carbon uptake. However, these warmer temperatures also drove higher winter ecosystem respiration, offsetting much of the springtime carbon gain. Interannual variability in net carbon uptake was high (147 to 364 g C m^-2 y^-1), but unrelated to growing season length. Instead, years with warmer growing seasons had 10% higher respiration and sequestered ~40% less carbon than cooler years. In contrast, annual evapotranspiration was relatively consistent among years (coefficient of variation = 4%) despite large differences in precipitation (17%, range = 800 mm). Transpiration by the evergreen understory likely helped to compensate for phenologically-driven differences in canopy transpiration. The increasing frequency of high summer temperatures is expected to have a greater effect on respiration than growing season length, reducing forest carbon storage.

Dynamics of stem water uptake among isohydric and anisohydric species experiencing a severe drought

Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of trees' species-specific responses to drought, especially in the Eastern USA, where species composition is highly dynamic due to historical changes in land use and fire regime. Here, we adapted a framework that classifies trees' water-use strategy along the spectrum of isohydric to anisohydric behavior to determine the responses of three canopy-dominant species to drought. We used a collection of leaf-level gas exchange, tree-level sap flux and stand-level eddy covariance data collected in south-central Indiana from 2011 to 2013, which included an unusually severe drought in the summer of 2012. Our goal was to assess how patterns in the radial profile of sap flux and reliance on hydraulic capacitance differed among species of contrasting water-use strategies. In isohydric species, which included sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), we found that the sap flux in the outer xylem experienced dramatic declines during drought, but sap flux at inner xylem was buffered from reductions in water availability. In contrast, for anisohydric oak species (Quercus alba L. and Quercus rubra L.), we observed relatively smaller variations in sap flux during drought in both inner and outer xylem, and higher nighttime refilling when compared with isohydric species. This reliance on nocturnal refilling, which occurred coincident with a decoupling between leaf- and tree-level water-use dynamics, suggests that anisohydric species may benefit from a reliance on hydraulic capacitance to mitigate the risk of hydraulic failure associated with maintaining high transpiration rates during drought. In the case of both isohydric and anisohydric species, our work demonstrates that failure to account for shifts in the radial profile of sap flux during drought could introduce substantial bias in estimates of tree water use during both drought and non-drought periods.

Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies

In the light of daunting global sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, improving our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth system is crucial. However, large knowledge gaps related to the effects of land management persist, in particular those human-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems that do not result in land-cover conversions. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of ten common land management activities for their biogeochemical and biophysical impacts, the level of process understanding and data availability. Our review shows that ca. one-tenth of the ice-free land surface is under intense human management, half under medium and one-fifth under extensive management. Based on our review, we cluster these ten management activities into three groups: (i) management activities for which data sets are available, and for which a good knowledge base exists (cropland harvest and irrigation); (ii) management activities for which sufficient knowledge on biogeochemical and biophysical effects exists but robust global data sets are lacking (forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, N fertilization); and (iii) land management practices with severe data gaps concomitant with an unsatisfactory level of process understanding (crop species selection, artificial wetland drainage, tillage and fire management and crop residue management, an element of crop harvest). Although we identify multiple impediments to progress, we conclude that the current status of process understanding and data availability is sufficient to advance with incorporating management in, for example, Earth system or dynamic vegetation models in order to provide a systematic assessment of their role in the Earth system. This review contributes to a strategic prioritization of research efforts across multiple disciplines, including land system research, ecological research and Earth system modelling.

Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication

Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.

Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests

Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production.

Predictive models for radial sap flux variation in coniferous, diffuse-porous and ring-porous temperate trees

Accurately scaling sap flux observations to tree or stand levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and by depth into the tree. However, existing models for radial variation in axial sap flux are rarely used because they are difficult to implement, there is uncertainty about their predictive ability and calibration measurements are often unavailable. Here we compare different models with a diverse sap flux data set to test the hypotheses that radial profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in the new settings. We develop a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies.

Hydro-Climatological Influences on Long-Term Dissolved Organic Carbon in a Mountain Stream of the Southeastern United States

In the past decade, significant increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been reported for large aquatic ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere and have been attributed variously to global warming, altered hydrologic conditions, and atmospheric deposition, among other factors. We analyzed a 25-yr DOC record (1988-2012) available for a forested headwater stream in the United States and documented two distinct regimes of stream DOC trends. From 1988 to 2001, annual mean volume-weighted DOC concentration (DOC, mg L) and annual DOC flux (kg ha yr) declined by 34 and 56%, respectively. During 1997 to 2012, the decline in DOC and DOC flux increased by 141 and 165%, respectively. Declining DOC from 1988 to 2001 corresponded to a decline in growing season runoff, which has the potential to influence mobilization of DOC from uplands to streams. Increasing DOC from 1997 to 2012 corresponded to increased precipitation early in the growing season and to an increase in the number and intensity of short-duration fall storms capable of mobilizing long-accrued DOC from forest litter and soils. In contrast, total annual runoff declined throughout the period. Rising air temperature, atmospheric acid deposition, and nitrogen depositions did not offer any plausible explanation for the observed bidirectional annual trends of stream DOC. Our study highlights the critical role of long-term datasets and analyses for understanding the impacts of climate change on carbon and water cycles and associated functions of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.

Drought limitations to leaf-level gas exchange: results from a model linking stomatal optimization and cohesion-tension theory

We merge concepts from stomatal optimization theory and cohesion-tension theory to examine the dynamics of three mechanisms that are potentially limiting to leaf-level gas exchange in trees during drought: (1) a 'demand limitation' driven by an assumption of optimal stomatal functioning; (2) 'hydraulic limitation' of water movement from the roots to the leaves; and (3) 'non-stomatal' limitations imposed by declining leaf water status within the leaf. Model results suggest that species-specific 'economics' of stomatal behaviour may play an important role in differentiating species along the continuum of isohydric to anisohydric behaviour; specifically, we show that non-stomatal and demand limitations may reduce stomatal conductance and increase leaf water potential, promoting wide safety margins characteristic of isohydric species. We used model results to develop a diagnostic framework to identify the most likely limiting mechanism to stomatal functioning during drought and showed that many of those features were commonly observed in field observations of tree water use dynamics. Direct comparisons of modelled and measured stomatal conductance further indicated that non-stomatal and demand limitations reproduced observed patterns of tree water use well for an isohydric species but that a hydraulic limitation likely applies in the case of an anisohydric species.

The role of isohydric and anisohydric species in determining ecosystem-scale response to severe drought

Ongoing shifts in the species composition of Eastern US forests necessitate the development of frameworks to explore how species-specific water-use strategies influence ecosystem-scale carbon (C) cycling during drought. Here, we develop a diagnostic framework to classify plant drought-response strategies along a continuum of isohydric to anisohydric regulation of leaf water potential (Ψ(L)). The framework is applied to a 3-year record of weekly leaf-level gas exchange and Ψ measurements collected in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (Indiana, USA), where continuous observations of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) have been ongoing since 1999. A severe drought that occurred in the middle of the study period reduced the absolute magnitude of NEE by 55%, though species-specific responses to drought conditions varied. Oak species were characterized by anisohydric regulation of Ψ(L) that promoted static gas exchange throughout the study period. In contrast, Ψ(L) of the other canopy dominant species was more isohydric, which limited gas exchange during the drought. Ecosystem-scale estimates of NEE and gross ecosystem productivity derived by upscaling the leaf-level data agreed well with tower-based observations, and highlight how the fraction of isohydric and anisohydric species in forests can mediate net ecosystem C balance.

On the difference in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between deciduous and evergreen forests in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is experiencing a rapid regional increase in the ratio of pine to deciduous forest ecosystems at the same time it is experiencing changes in climate. This study is focused on exploring how these shifts will affect the carbon sink capacity of southeastern US forests, which we show here are among the strongest carbon sinks in the continental United States. Using eight-year-long eddy covariance records collected above a hardwood deciduous forest (HW) and a pine plantation (PP) co-located in North Carolina, USA, we show that the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) was more variable in PP, contributing to variability in the difference in NEE between the two sites (ΔNEE) at a range of timescales, including the interannual timescale. Because the variability in evapotranspiration (ET) was nearly identical across the two sites over a range of timescales, the factors that determined the variability in ΔNEE were dominated by those that tend to decouple NEE from ET. One such factor was water use efficiency, which changed dramatically in response to drought and also tended to increase monotonically in nondrought years (P < 0.001 in PP). Factors that vary over seasonal timescales were strong determinants of the NEE in the HW site; however, seasonality was less important in the PP site, where significant amounts of carbon were assimilated outside of the active season, representing an important advantage of evergreen trees in warm, temperate climates. Additional variability in the fluxes at long-time scales may be attributable to slowly evolving factors, including canopy structure and increases in dormant season air temperature. Taken together, study results suggest that the carbon sink in the southeastern United States may become more variable in the future, owing to a predicted increase in drought frequency and an increase in the fractional cover of southern pines.

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape-induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape-induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.

Future species composition will affect forest water use after loss of eastern hemlock from southern Appalachian forests

Infestation of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) with hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) has caused widespread mortality of this key canopy species throughout much of the southern Appalachian Mountains in the past decade. Because eastern hemlock is heavily concentrated in riparian habitats, maintains a dense canopy, and has an evergreen leaf habit, its loss is expected to have a major impact on forest processes, including transpiration (E(t)). Our goal was to estimate changes in stand-level E(t) since HWA infestation, and predict future effects of forest regeneration on forest E(t) in declining eastern hemlock stands where hemlock represented 50-60% of forest basal area. We used a combination of community surveys, sap flux measurements, and empirical models relating sap flux-scaled leaf-level transpiration (E(L)) to climate to estimate the change in E(t) after hemlock mortality and forecast how forest E(t) will change in the future in response to eastern hemlock loss. From 2004 to 2011, eastern hemlock mortality reduced annual forest E(t) by 22% and reduced winter E(t) by 74%. As hemlock mortality increased, growth of deciduous tree species--especially sweet birch (Betula lenta L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), and the evergreen understory shrub rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum L.)--also increased, and these species will probably dominate post-hemlock riparian forests. All of these species have higher daytime E(L) rates than hemlock, and replacement of hemlock with species that have less conservative transpiration rates will result in rapid recovery of annual stand E(t). Further, we predict that annual stand E(t) will eventually surpass E(t) levels observed before hemlock was infested with HWA. This long-term increase in forest E(t) may eventually reduce stream discharge, especially during the growing season. However, the dominance of deciduous species in the canopy will result in a permanent reduction in winter E(t) and possible increase in winter stream discharge. The effects of hemlock die-off and replacement with deciduous species will have a significant impact on the hydrologic flux of forest transpiration, especially in winter. These results highlight the impact that invasive species can have on landscape-level ecosystem fluxes.

Effects of management intervention on post-disturbance community composition: an experimental analysis using bayesian hierarchical models

As human demand for ecosystem products increases, management intervention may become more frequent after environmental disturbances. Evaluations of ecological responses to cumulative effects of management interventions and natural disturbances provide critical decision-support tools for managers who strive to balance environmental conservation and economic development. We conducted an experiment to evaluate the effects of salvage logging on avian community composition in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests affected by beetle outbreaks in Oregon, USA, 1996–1998. Treatments consisted of the removal of lodgepole pine snags only, and live trees were not harvested. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify occupancy dynamics for 27 breeding species, while accounting for variation in the detection process. We examined how magnitude and precision of treatment effects varied when incorporating prior information from a separate intervention study that occurred in a similar ecological system. Regardless of which prior we evaluated, we found no evidence that the harvest treatment had a negative impact on species richness, with an estimated average of 0.2–2.2 more species in harvested stands than unharvested stands. Estimated average similarity between control and treatment stands ranged from 0.82–0.87 (1 indicating complete similarity between a pair of stands) and suggested that treatment stands did not contain novel assemblies of species responding to the harvesting prescription. Estimated treatment effects were positive for twenty-four (90%) of the species, although the credible intervals contained 0 in all cases. These results suggest that, unlike most post-fire salvage logging prescriptions, selective harvesting after beetle outbreaks may meet multiple management objectives, including the maintenance of avian community richness comparable to what is found in unharvested stands. Our results provide managers with prescription alternatives to respond to severe beetle outbreaks that continue to occur across extensive portions of the dry forests of western North America.