Tail-dependence of masting synchrony results in continent-wide seed scarcity

Spatial synchrony may be tail-dependent, meaning it is stronger for peaks rather than troughs, or vice versa. High interannual variation in seed production in perennial plants, called masting, can be synchronized at subcontinental scales, triggering extensive resource pulses or famines. We used data from 99 populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to examine whether masting synchrony differs between mast peaks and years of seed scarcity. Our results revealed that seed scarcity occurs simultaneously across the majority of the species range, extending to populations separated by distances up to 1800 km. Mast peaks were spatially synchronized at distances up to 1000 km and synchrony was geographically concentrated in northeastern Europe. Extensive synchrony in the masting lower tail means that famines caused by beech seed scarcity are amplified by their extensive spatial synchrony, with diverse consequences for food web functioning and climate change biology.

Predation can shape the cascade interplay between heterothermy, exploration and maintenance metabolism under high food availability

Maintenance metabolism as the minimum energy expenditure needed to maintain homeothermy (a high and stable body temperature, T b), reflects the magnitude of metabolic machinery and the associated costs of self-maintenance in endotherms (organisms able to produce heat endogenously). Therefore, it can interact with most, if not all, organismal functions, including the behavior-fitness linkage. Many endothermic animals can avoid the costs of maintaining homeothermy and temporally reduce T b and metabolism by entering heterothermic states like torpor, the most effective energy-saving strategy. Variations in BMR, behavior, and torpor use are considered to be shaped by food resources, but those conclusions are based on research studying these traits in isolation. We tested the effect of ecological contexts (food availability and predation risk) on the interplay between the maintenance costs of homeothermy, heterothermy, and exploration in a wild mammal-the yellow-necked mouse. We measured maintenance metabolism as basal metabolic rate (BMR) using respirometry, distance moved (exploration) in the open-field test, and variation in T b (heterothermy) during short-term fasting in animals captured at different locations of known natural food availability and predator presence, and with or without supplementary food resources. We found that in winter, heterothermy and exploration (but not BMR) negatively correlated with natural food availability (determined in autumn). Supplementary feeding increased mouse density, predation risk and finally had a positive effect on heterothermy (but not on BMR or exploration). The path analysis testing plausible causal relationships between the studied traits indicated that elevated predation risk increased heterothermy, which in turn negatively affected exploration, which positively correlated with BMR. Our study indicates that adaptive heterothermy is a compensation strategy for balancing the energy budget in endothermic animals experiencing low natural food availability. This study also suggests that under environmental challenges like increased predation risk, the use of an effective energy-saving strategy predicts behavioral expression better than self-maintenance costs under homeothermy.

Masting, fire-stimulated flowering, and the evolutionary ecology of synchronized reproduction

Synchronized episodic reproduction among long-lived plants shapes ecological interactions, ecosystem dynamics, and evolutionary processes worldwide. Two active scientific fields investigate the causes and consequences of such synchronized reproduction: the fields of masting and fire-stimulated flowering. While parallels between masting and fire-stimulated flowering have been previously noted, there has been little dialogue between these historically independent fields. We predict that the synthesis of these fields will facilitate new insight into the causes and consequences of synchronized reproduction. Here we briefly review parallels between masting and fire-stimulated flowering, using two case studies and a database of 1870 plant species to facilitate methodological, conceptual, geographical, taxonomic, and phylogenetic comparisons. We identify avenues for future research and describe three key opportunities associated with synthesis. First, the taxonomic and geographic complementarity of empirical studies from these historically independent fields highlights the potential to derive more general inferences about global patterns and consequences of synchronized reproduction in perennial plants. Second, masting's well developed conceptual framework for evaluating adaptive hypotheses can help guide empirical studies of fire-stimulated species and enable stronger inferences about the evolutionary ecology of fire-stimulated flowering. Third, experimental manipulation of reproductive variation in fire-stimulated species presents unique opportunities to empirically investigate foundational questions about ecological and evolutionary processes underlying synchronized reproduction. Synthesis of these fields and their complementary insights offers a unique opportunity to advance our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of synchronized reproduction in perennial plants.

Summer solstice orchestrates the subcontinental-scale synchrony of mast seeding

High interannual variation in seed production in perennial plants can be synchronized at subcontinental scales with wide consequences for ecosystem functioning, but how such synchrony is generated is unclear1-3. We investigated the factors contributing to masting synchrony in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), which extends to a geographic range of 2,000 km. Maximizing masting synchrony via spatial weather coordination, known as the Moran effect, requires a simultaneous response to weather conditions across distant populations. A celestial cue that occurs simultaneously across the entire hemisphere is the longest day (the summer solstice). We show that European beech abruptly opens its temperature-sensing window on the solstice, and hence widely separated populations all start responding to weather signals in the same week. This celestial 'starting gun' generates ecological events with high spatial synchrony across the continent.

Retrospective Study of 25 Cases of Acorn Intoxication Colitis in Horses between 2011 and 2018 and Factors Associated with Non-Survival

The aim of this study is to describe clinical data associated with acorn intoxication and to find variables associated with survival. Data from horses presented at CISCO-ONIRIS from 2011 to 2018 with a diagnosis of acorn intoxication were included. Diagnosis was based on the following: season, the presence of acorns in the environment, clinical and hemato-biochemical parameters suggestive of a digestive/renal disease, the co-morbidity of companion animals, and post-mortem findings. Statistical analysis was completed using Student's t-test for mean comparisons and a Chi-square test for group comparisons (p < 0.05). A total of 25 horses were included, and seasonality suggests that the intoxication may vary from year to year. Clinical signs associated with acorn intoxication were signs of circulatory shock (lethargy, tachycardia, abnormal mucous membrane, tachypnea), digestive signs (diarrhea, ileus, colic), and abnormal temperature. Clinical pathological findings included increased hematocrit, WBC, creatinine, BUN, GGT, AST, CK and decreased albumin. Overall, 44% (11/25) of horses survived. The majority (13/14) of non-survivors died, or were euthanized, during the first 48 h. Findings significantly associated with non-survival were age, heart rate, hemorrhagic diarrhea, ileus, hematocrit, creatinine, blood lactate, and thickness of the colon wall at ultrasonography. This study provides equine practitioners with valuable prognostic information in cases of acorn intoxication.

Conservation genetics of Notelaea lloydii (Oleaceae) in south-eastern Queensland, Australia

Habitat fragmentation can increase the chance of population bottlenecks and inbreeding, and may ultimately lead to reduced fitness and local extinction. Notelaea lloydii is a native olive species endemic to Australia and listed as vulnerable due to its restricted distribution. A recent molecular systematics study has revealed there might be some geographic structuring among N. lloydii populations. Therefore, we undertook a genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis to determine levels and patterns of genetic diversity, inbreeding and gene flow within and among N. lloydii populations in south-eastern Queensland. Furthermore, as the reproductive phase of a plant's life history has a profound influence on genetic diversity, life history reproductive traits were also studied. Our SNP analysis revealed low genetic diversity, inbreeding and significant genetic structuring even among proximate populations. Results of a flower and fruit bagging experiment in two consecutive seasons revealed that N. lloydii produced many flowers but only a few fruits survived to maturity. There were no differences in bagged and un-bagged flowering and fruiting rates, and therefore, we conclude that the high fruit abortion rate was probably due to inbreeding depression and/or suboptimal conditions, rather than pollinator availability and insect attack. Overall, results of this study indicate that the populations of N. lloydii are small, inbred and genetically isolated and represent unique management units that require local conservation management due to ongoing threats associated with urbanisation.

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.

Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is caused by a flavivirus that infects animals including humans. In Europe, the TBE virus circulates enzootically in natural foci among ticks and rodent hosts. The abundance of ticks depends on the abundance of rodent hosts, which in turn depends on the availability of food resources, such as tree seeds. Trees can exhibit large inter-annual fluctuations in seed production (masting), which influences the abundance of rodents the following year, and the abundance of nymphal ticks two years later. Thus, the biology of this system predicts a 2-year time lag between masting and the incidence of tick-borne diseases such as TBE. As airborne pollen abundance is related to masting, we investigated whether inter-annual variation in pollen load could be directly correlated with inter-annual variation in the incidence of TBE in human populations with a 2-year time lag. We focused our study on the province of Trento (northern Italy), where 206 TBE cases were notified between 1992 and 2020. We tested the relationship between TBE incidence and pollen load collected from 1989 to 2020 for 7 different tree species common in our study area. Through univariate analysis we found that the pollen quantities recorded two years prior for two tree species, hop-hornbeam (Ostrya carpinifolia) and downy oak (Quercus pubescens), were positively correlated with TBE emergence (R² = 0.2) while a multivariate model with both tree species better explained the variation in annual TBE incidence (R² = 0.34). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at quantifying the correlation between pollen quantities and the incidence of TBE in human populations. As pollen loads are collected by widespread aerobiological networks using standardized procedures, our study could be easily replicated to test their potential as early warning system for TBE and other tick-borne diseases.

Mechanisms driving interspecific variation in regional synchrony of trees reproduction

Seed production in many plants is characterized by large interannual variation, which is synchronized at subcontinental scales in some species but local in others. The reproductive synchrony affects animal migrations, trophic responses to resource pulses and the planning of management and conservation. Spatial synchrony of reproduction is typically attributed to the Moran effect, but this alone is unable to explain interspecific differences in synchrony. We show that interspecific differences in the conservation of seed production-weather relationships combine with the Moran effect to explain variation in reproductive synchrony. Conservative timing of weather cues that trigger masting allows populations to be synchronized at distances >1000 km. Conversely, if populations respond to variable weather signals, synchrony cannot be achieved. Our study shows that species vary in the extent to which their weather cueing is spatiotemporally conserved, with important consequences, including an interspecific variation of masting vulnerability to climate change.

Mast seeding: Study of oak mechanisms carries wider lessons

Variable acorn crops in oaks were thought to reflect variable pollination success, but a new study shows local climates determine whether pollination or flower production drives acorn crops. This affects forest regeneration under climate change, and cautions against dichotomous summaries of biological phenomena.

Oak masting drivers vary between populations depending on their climatic environments

Large interannual variation in seed production, called masting, is very common in wind-pollinated tree populations and has profound implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems and the epidemiology of certain human diseases.^1,2,3,4,5 Comparing the reproductive characteristics of populations established in climatically contrasting environments would provide powerful insight into masting mechanisms, but the required data are extremely scarce. We built a database from an unprecedented fine-scale 8-year survey of 150 sessile oak trees (Quercus petraea) from 15 populations distributed over a broad climatic gradient, including individual recordings of annual flowering effort, fruiting rate, and fruit production. Although oak masting was previously considered to depend mainly on fruiting rate variations,^6,7 we show that the female flowering effort is highly variable from year to year and explains most of the fruiting dynamics in two-thirds of the populations. What drives masting was found to differ among populations living under various climates. In soft-climate populations, the fruiting rate increases initially strongly with the flowering effort, and the intensity of masting results mainly from the flowering synchrony level between individuals. By contrast, the fruiting rate of harsh-climate populations depends mainly on spring weather, which ensures intense masting regardless of the flowering synchronization level. Our work highlights the need for jointly measuring flowering effort and fruit production to decipher the diversity of masting mechanisms among populations. Accounting for such diversity will be decisive in proposing accurate, and possibly contrasted, scenarios about future reproductive patterns of perennial plants with ongoing climate change and their numerous cascading effects.

How will global change affect plant reproduction? A framework for mast seeding trends

Forest ecology traditionally focuses on plant growth and survival, leaving seed production as a major demographic process lacking a framework for how it will be affected by global change. Understanding plant reproductive responses to changing climate is complicated by masting, the annually variable seed production synchronized within populations. Predicting trends in masting is crucial, because masting impacts seed predation and pollination enough to override simple trends in mean seed production. Proximate mechanisms of seed production patterns in perennial plants are gathered to identify processes through which masting may be affected by a changing environment. Predicting trends in masting will require understanding the mechanisms that cause predictable seed failure after high-seed years, and the stochastic mechanisms that synchronize individuals in high-seed years.

Long-Term Effects of Climate Variability on Seed Rain Dynamics of Four Fagaceae Sympatric Species in Qinling Mountains, China

Seed rain, as the beginning of species dispersal, is a key process for forest structure and regeneration. In this study, the seed rain of four Fagaceae sympatric plant species (Castaneamollissima, Quercus aliena, Quercus variabilis, and Quercus serrata) in the Qinling Mountains were monitored for ten consecutive years, and the responses of seed rain dynamics of the four species to major climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) were analyzed. We found there were significant differences in the seed rain dynamics between C. mollissima of Castanea and the other three species of Quercus in the initial period and end period and the duration of the whole seed rain process among the 10 years. This could indicate to some extent that there was no concentrated flowering and fruiting among different plants of different genera, and they could well avoid fierce competition for similar resources and coexist in the same region. This may also be a reproductive strategy for plants. Seed rain dynamics of different plant species had different sensitivities to climate factors (temperature and precipitation), which indicated that mainly because of their different responses to climate factors, they could well avoid fierce competition for similar climate resources. In addition, the differences in seed rain dropping dynamics could reduce consumption in large numbers by seed predators, thereby promoting their own dispersal and regeneration. All of the above contribute to their better coexistence in the same domain.

Global patterns in the predator satiation effect of masting: A meta-analysis

Masting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants.

Predator satiation is the most commonly tested hypothesis that explains the evolutionary advantages of masting. It proposes that masting benefits plant reproduction by reducing the proportion of seed crop that is consumed by predators. This hypothesis is widely accepted, but many theoretical notions about predator satiation have not been subjected to a robust evaluation. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified seed predation in relation to mast seeding. We found evidence of both numerical (starvation between mast years) and functional (satiation during mast years) response of consumers to masting. These two effects reinforced each other. Masting satiated invertebrate but not vertebrate seed predators. Satiation was more pronounced at higher, temperate, and boreal latitudes, perhaps because masting is more effective in reducing seed losses when plant communities are less diverse. The effectiveness of masting in satiating invertebrate consumers declined over time (1972 to 2018), probably reflecting the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of masting. If masting ceases to reduce seed losses, a crucial advantage of this reproductive strategy will be lost, and sustainability of many tree populations will decline.

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, can have profound consequences for plant populations and the food webs that are built on their seeds. For centuries, people have recorded mast crops because of their importance in managing wildlife populations. In the past 30 years, we have begun to recognize the importance of masting in conserving and managing many other aspects of the environment: promoting the regeneration of forests following fire or other disturbance, conserving rare plants, conscientiously developing the use of edible seeds as non-timber forest products, coping with the consequences of extinctions on seed dispersal, reducing the impacts of plant invasions with biological control, suppressing zoonotic diseases and preventing depredation of endemic fauna. We summarize current instances and future possibilities of a broad set of applications of masting. By exploring in detail several case studies, we develop new perspectives on how solutions to pressing conservation and land management problems may benefit by better understanding the dynamics of seed production. A lesson common to these examples is that masting can be used to time management, and often, to do this effectively, we need models that explicitly forecast masting and the dynamics of seed-eating animals into the near-term future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

The effects of ENSO and the North American monsoon on mast seeding in two Rocky Mountain conifer species

We aimed to disentangle the patterns of synchronous and variable cone production (i.e. masting) and its relationship to climate in two conifer species native to dry forests of western North America. We used cone abscission scars to reconstruct ca 15 years of recent cone production in Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa, and used redundancy analysis to relate time series of annual cone production to climate indices describing the North American monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We show that the sensitivity to climate and resulting synchrony in cone production varies substantially between species. Cone production among populations of P. edulis was much more spatially synchronous and more closely related to large-scale modes of climate variability than among populations of P. ponderosa. Large-scale synchrony in P. edulis cone production was associated with the North American monsoon and we identified a dipole pattern of regional cone production associated with ENSO phase. In P. ponderosa, these climate indices were not strongly associated with cone production, resulting in asynchronous masting patterns among populations. This study helps frame our understanding of mast seeding as a life-history strategy and has implications for our ability to forecast mast years in these species. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

The ecology and evolution of synchronized reproduction in long-lived plants

Populations of many long-lived plants exhibit spatially synchronized seed production that varies extensively over time, so that seed production in some years is much higher than on average, while in others, it is much lower or absent. This phenomenon termed masting or mast seeding has important consequences for plant reproductive success, ecosystem dynamics and plant-human interactions. Inspired by recent advances in the field, this special issue presents a series of articles that advance the current understanding of the ecology and evolution of masting. To provide a broad overview, we reflect on the state-of-the-art of masting research in terms of underlying proximate mechanisms, ontogeny, adaptations, phylogeny and applications to conservation. While the mechanistic drivers and fitness consequences of masting have received most attention, the evolutionary history, ontogenetic trajectory and applications to plant-human interactions are poorly understood. With increased availability of long-term datasets across broader geographical and taxonomic scales, as well as advances in molecular approaches, we expect that many mysteries of masting will be solved soon. The increased understanding of this global phenomenon will provide the foundation for predictive modelling of seed crops, which will improve our ability to manage forests and agricultural fruit and nut crops in the Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

A brief history of masting research

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Fire history and weather interact to determine extent and synchrony of mast-seeding in rhizomatous scrub oaks of Florida

In disturbance-prone ecosystems, fitness consequences of plant reproductive strategies are often determined by the relative timing of seed production and disturbance events, but the role of disturbances as proximate drivers of seed production has been overlooked. We use long-term data on seed production in Quercus chapmanii, Q. geminata and Q. inopina, rhizomatous oaks found in south central Florida's oak scrub, to investigate the role of fire history and its interaction with weather in shaping acorn production and its synchrony. Acorn production increased with the time since last fire, combined with additive or interactive effects of spring precipitation (+) or drought (-). Furthermore, multiple matrix regression models revealed that ramet pairs with shared fire history were more synchronous in seed production than ones that burned in different years. Long-term trends suggest that increasingly drier spring weather, in interaction with fire frequency, may drive a decline of seed production. Such declines could affect the community of acorn-reliant vertebrates in the Florida scrub, including endangered Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). These results illustrate that fire can function as a proximate driver of seed production in mast-seeding species, highlighting the increasingly recognized importance of interactions among reproductive strategies and disturbance regimes in structuring plant populations and communities. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Studying the genetic basis of masting

The mechanisms underlying mast seeding have traditionally been studied by collecting long-term observational data on seed crops and correlating seedfall with environmental variables. Significant progress in ecological genomics will improve our understanding of the evolution of masting by clarifying the genetic basis of masting traits and the role of natural selection in shaping those traits. Here, we summarize three important aspects in studying the evolution of masting at the genetic level: which traits govern masting, whether those traits are genetically regulated, and which taxa show wide variation in these traits. We then introduce recent studies on the molecular mechanisms of masting. Those studies measure seasonal changes in gene expression in natural conditions to quantify how multiple environmental factors combine to regulate floral initiation, which in many masting plant species is the single largest contributor to among-year variation in seed crops. We show that Fagaceae offers exceptional opportunities for evolutionary investigations because of its diversity at both the phenotypic and genetic levels and existing documented genome sequences. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Climate change and plant reproduction: trends and drivers of mast seeding change

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Genetic diversity of Norway spruce ecotypes assessed by GBS-derived SNPs

We investigated the genetic structure of three phenotypically distinct ecotypic groups of Norway spruce (Picea abies) belonging to three elevational classes; namely, low- (acuminata), medium- (europaea), and high-elevation (obovata) form, each represented by 150 trees. After rigorous filtering, we used 1916 Genotyping-by-Sequencing generated SNPs for analysis. Outputs from three multivariate analysis methods (Bayesian clustering algorithm implemented in STRUCTURE, Principal Component Analysis, and the Discriminant Analysis of Principal Components) indicated the presence of a distinct genetic cluster representing the high-elevation ecotypic group. Our findings bring a vital message to forestry practice affirming that artificial transfer of forest reproductive material, especially for stands under harsh climate conditions, should be considered with caution.

Holm oak fecundity does not acclimate to a drier world

Climate change might impact tree fecundity by altering the relative influences of meteorological and physiological drivers, and by modifying resource investment in reproduction. Using a 13-yr monitoring of Quercus ilex reproduction in a rainfall exclusion experiment, we analysed the interactive effects of long-term increased aridity and other environmental drivers on the inter-annual variation of fecundity (male flower biomass, number of initiated and mature fruits). Summer-autumn water stress was the main driver of fruit abortion during fruit growth. Rainfall exclusion treatment strongly reduced the number of initiated and mature fruits, even in masting years, and did not increase fruit tolerance to severe drought. Conversely, the relative contribution of the meteorological and physiological drivers, and the inter-annual variability of fruit production were not modified by rainfall exclusion. Rather than inducing an acclimation of tree fecundity to water limitation, increased aridity impacted it negatively through both lower fruit initiation due to changes in resource allocation, and more severe water and resource limitations during fruit growth. Long-term increased aridity affected tree reproduction beyond what is expected from the current response to inter-annual drought variations, suggesting that natural regeneration of holm oak forest could be jeopardised in the future.

Terrestrial Ecology: Natural Selection for Mast Seeding

Mast seeding is a widespread reproductive phenomenon in plants, and testing evolutionary drivers is challenging. New research uses four decades of individual-tree reproduction data and demonstrates selection for hypersensitivity to a weather cue, high temporal variability, and high synchrony with neighbours.

Flowering synchrony drives reproductive success in a wind-pollinated tree

Synchronised and quasi-periodic production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. Flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesised to provide the mechanistic link for the observed relationship between weather and population-level seed production. We report the first experimental test of the phenological synchrony hypotheses as a driver of pollen limitation in mast seeding oaks (Quercus ilex). Higher flowering synchrony yielded greater pollination efficiency, which resulted in 2-fold greater seed set in highly synchronised oaks compared to asynchronous individuals. Pollen addition removed the negative effect of asynchronous flowering on seed set. Because phenological synchrony operates through environmental variation, this result suggests that oak masting is synchronised by exogenous rather than endogenous factors. It also points to a mechanism by which changes in flowering phenology can affect plant reproduction of mast-seeding plants, with subsequent implications for community dynamics.

Plant-available soil nutrients have a limited influence on cone production patterns of individual white spruce trees

The resource budget model for mast seeding hypothesizes that soil nutrients proximately influence reproduction. Plants in high soil nutrient (particularly N) areas are predicted to have lower reproductive variability over time and higher mean reproduction. While often examined theoretically, there are relatively few empirical tests of this hypothesis. We quantified cone production of 110 individual white spruce (Picea glauca) trees over seven years and quantified plant-available soil macronutrients (N, Ca, K, Mg, P, S) in natural forest conditions across three years with different cone crop conditions. Each of these plant-available soil nutrients were correlated across years (r_s = 0.55-0.89; all > 0.81 for total-N); spatially, total-N availability varied 366-fold across trees. Plant-available soil nutrients did not influence variability or mean annual reproduction, contrary to nutrient perturbation experiments. We examined within-year nutrient and cone-production relationships, and observed significant positive relationships between reproduction and plant-available soil nutrients only in a low-reproduction year preceding a mast event. Both during a mast event and the following year, when overall cone production was very high or very low, there were no relationships. Both external drivers (e.g., weather) and internal resource budgets likely influence soil nutrient-reproduction relationships. These results suggest that plant-available soil nutrients may not be a large factor influencing mast-seeding patterns among individuals in this species.

Biogeography and phylogeny of masting: do global patterns fit functional hypotheses?

Interannual variability of seed crops (CVp) has profound consequences for plant populations and food webs, where high CVp is termed 'masting'. Here we ask: is global variation in CVp better predicted by plant or habitat differences consistent with adaptive economies of scale, in which flower and seed benefits increase disproportionately during mast years; or by passive mechanisms, in which seed production responds to variation in resource availability associated with climate variability? To address this question, we compiled a dataset for phylogenetic comparative analysis of long-term fruit/seed production for plants comprising 920 time series spanning 311 plant species. Factors associated with both adaptive benefits of CVp (wind pollination and seed dispersal) and climatic variability (variability of summer precipitation) were among the best predictors of global variation in CVp. We observed a hump-shaped relationship between CVp and latitude and intermediate phylogenetic and geographic signals in CVp. CVp is patterned nonrandomly across the globe and over the plant tree of life, where high CVp is associated with species benefiting from economies of scale of seed or flower production and with species that experience variable rainfall over summer months when seeds usually mature.

Molecular control of masting: an introduction to an epigenetic summer memory

BACKGROUND

Mast flowering ('masting') is characterized by mass synchronized flowering at irregular intervals in populations of perennial plants over a wide geographical area, resulting in irregular high seed production. While masting is a global phenomenon, it is particularly prevalent in the alpine flora of New Zealand. Increases in global temperature may alter the masting pattern, affecting wider communities with a potential impact on plant-pollinator interactions, seed set and food availability for seed-consuming species.

SCOPE

This review summarizes an ecological temperature model (ΔT) that is being used to predict the intensity of a masting season. We introduce current molecular studies on flowering and the concept of an 'epigenetic summer memory' as a driver of mast flowering. We propose a hypothetical model based on temperature-associated epigenetic modifications of the floral integrator genes FLOWERING LOCUS T, FLOWERING LOCUS C and SUPPRESSOR OF OVEREXPRESSION OF CONSTANS1.

CONCLUSIONS

Genome-wide transcriptomic and targeted gene expression analyses are needed to establish the developmental and physiological processes associated with masting. Such analyses may identify changes in gene expression that can be used to predict the intensity of a forthcoming masting season, as well as to determine the extent to which climate change will influence the mass synchronized flowering of masting species, with downstream impacts on their associated communities.

It is not just a 'trade-off': indications for sink- and source-limitation to vegetative and regenerative growth in an old-growth beech forest

Controls on tree growth are key issues in plant physiology. The hypothesis of our study was that the interannual variability of wood and fruit production are primarily controlled directly by weather conditions (sink limitation), while carbon assimilation (source limitation) plays a secondary role. We analyzed the interannual variability of weather conditions, gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) of wood and fruits of an old-growth, unmanaged Fagus sylvatica forest over 14 yr, including six mast years. In a multiple linear regression model, c. 71% of the annual variation in wood-NPP could be explained by mean air temperature in May, precipitation from April to May (positive influence) and fruit-NPP (negative influence). GPP of June to July solely explained c. 42% of the variation in wood-NPP. Fruit-NPP was positively related to summer precipitation 2 yr before (R²  = 0.85), and negatively to precipitation in May (R²  = 0.83) in the fruit years. GPP had no influence on fruit-NPP. Our results suggest a complex system of sink and source limitations to tree growth driven by weather conditions and going beyond a simple carbon-mediated 'trade-off' between regenerative and vegetative growth.

Investigating the relationship between climate, stand age, and temporal trends in masting behavior of European forest trees

Masting-temporally variable seed production with high spatial synchrony-is a pervasive strategy in wind-pollinated trees that is hypothesized to be vulnerable to climate change due to its correlation with variability in abiotic conditions. Recent work suggests that aging may also have strong effects on seed production patterns of trees, but this potential confounding factor has not been considered in previous times series analysis of climate change effects. Using a 54 year dataset for seven dominant species in 17 forests across Poland, we used the proportion of seed-producing trees (PST) to contrast the predictions of the climate change and aging hypotheses in Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Quercus petraea, and Quercus robur. Our results show that in all species, PST increased over time and that this change correlated most strongly with stand age, while the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, a measure of drought, contributed to temporal trends in PST of F. sylvatica and Q. robur. Temporal variability of PST also increased over time in all species except P. sylvestris, while trends in temporal autocorrelation and among-stand synchrony reflect species-specific masting strategies. Our results suggest a pivotal role of plant ontogeny in driving not only the extent but also variability and synchrony of reproduction in temperate forest trees. In a time of increasing forest regrowth in Europe, we therefore call for increased attention to demographic effects such as aging on plant reproductive behavior, particularly in studies examining global change effects using long-term time series data.

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: an agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Climate warming disrupts mast seeding and its fitness benefits in European beech

Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals. Consequently, the benefit that the plants gained from masting has declined. While climate warming was associated with increased reproductive effort, we demonstrate that less effective pollination and greater losses of seeds to predators offset any benefits to the plants. This shows that an apparently simple benefit of climate warming unravels because of complex ecological interactions. Our results indicate that in masting systems, the main beneficiaries of climate-driven increases in seed production are seed predators, not plants.

Flower phenology as a disruptor of the fruiting dynamics in temperate oak species

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive success. From a large field monitoring network, we compared the pollen phenology between temperate and Mediterranean oak species. Then, focusing on temperate oak species, we explored the influence of the weather around the time of budburst and flowering on seed production, and simulated with a mechanistic model the consequences that an evolutionary shifting of flower phenology would have on fruiting dynamics. Temperate oak species release pollen earlier in the season than do Mediterranean oak species. Such early flowering in temperate oak species results in pollen often being released during unfavorable weather conditions and frequently results in reproductive failure. If pollen release were delayed as a result of natural selection, fruiting dynamics would exhibit much reduced stochastic variation. We propose that early flower phenology might be adaptive by making mast-seeding years rare and unpredictable, which would greatly help in controlling the dynamics of seed consumers.

Period-3 dominant phase synchronisation of Zelkova serrata: border-collision bifurcation observed in a plant population

The population synchrony of tree seed production has attracted widespread attention in agriculture, forestry and ecosystem management. Oaks usually show synchronisation of irregular or intermittent sequences of acorn production, which is termed 'masting'. Tree crops such as citrus and pistachio show a clear two-year cycle (period-2) termed 'alternate bearing'. We identified period-3 dominant phase synchronisation in a population of Zelkova serrata. As 'period-3' is known to provide evidence to imply chaos in nonlinear science, the observed period-3 phase synchronisation of Zelkova serrata is an attractive real-world phenomenon that warrants investigation in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Using the Hilbert transform, we proposed a procedure to determine the fractions of periods underlying the survey data and distinguished the on-year (high yield year) and the off-year (low yield year) of the masting. We quantified the effects of pollen coupling, common environmental noise and individual variability on the phase synchronisation and demonstrated how the period-3 synchronisation emerges through a border-collision bifurcation process. In this paper, we propose a model that can describe diverse behaviours of seed production observed in many different tree species by changing its parameters.

Shifts in phenological mean and synchrony interact to shape competitive outcomes

Climate change-induced phenological shifts are ubiquitous and have the potential to disrupt natural communities by changing the timing of species interactions. Shifts in first and/or mean phenological date are well documented, but recent studies indicate that shifts in synchrony (individual variation around these metrics) can be just as common. However, we know little about how both types of phenological shifts interact to affect species interactions and communities. Here, we experimentally manipulated the hatching phenologies of two competing species of larval amphibians to address this conceptual gap. Specifically, we manipulated the relative mean hatching time (early, same, or late relative to competitor) and population synchrony (high, medium, or low levels of variation around the mean) in a full 3 × 3 factorial design to measure independent and interactive effects of phenological mean and population phenological synchrony on competitive outcomes. Our results indicate that phenological synchrony within a population strongly influences intraspecific competition by changing the density of individuals and relative strength of early- vs. late-arriving individuals. Individuals from high-synchrony populations competed symmetrically, whereas individuals from low-synchrony populations competed asymmetrically. At the community scale, shifts in population phenological synchrony interact with shifts in phenological mean to affect key demographic rates (survival, biomass export, per capita mass, and emergence timing) strongly. Furthermore, changes in mean timing of species interactions altered phenological synchrony within a population at the next life stage, and phenological synchrony at one life stage altered the mean timing of the next life stage. Thus, shifts in phenological synchrony within populations cannot only alter species interactions, but species interactions in turn can also drive shifts in phenology.

Fight or flight? Potential tradeoffs between drought defense and reproduction in conifers

Plants frequently exhibit tradeoffs between reproduction and growth when resources are limited, and often change these allocation patterns in response to stress. Shorter-lived plants such as annuals tend to allocate relatively more resources toward reproduction when stressed, while longer-lived plants tend to invest more heavily in survival and stress defense. However, severe stress may affect the fitness implications of allocating relatively more resources to reproduction versus stress defense. Increased drought intensity and duration have led to widespread mortality events in coniferous forests. In this review, we ask how potential tradeoffs between reproduction and survival influence the likelihood of drought-induced mortality and species persistence. We propose that trees may exhibit what we call 'fight or flight' behaviors under stress. 'Fight' behaviors involve greater resource allocation toward survival (e.g., growth, drought-resistant xylem and pest defense). 'Flight' consists of higher relative allocation of resources to reproduction, potentially increasing both offspring production and mortality risk for the adult. We hypothesize that flight behaviors increase as drought stress escalates the likelihood of mortality in a given location.

Environmental Veto Synchronizes Mast Seeding in Four Contrasting Tree Species

Synchronized and variable reproduction by perennial plants, called mast seeding, is a major reproductive strategy of trees. The need to accumulate sufficient resources after depletion following fruiting (resource budget), the efficiency of mass flowering for outcross pollination (pollen coupling), or the external factors preventing reproduction (environmental veto) could all synchronize masting. We used seed production data for four species (Quercus ilex, Quercus humilis, Sorbus aucuparia, and Pinus albicaulis) to parametrize resource budget models of masting. Based on species life-history characteristics, we hypothesized that pollen coupling should synchronize reproduction in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis, while in Q. ilex and Q. humilis, environmental veto should be a major factor. Pollen coupling was stronger in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis than in oaks, while veto was more frequent in the latter. Yet in all species, costs of reproduction were too small to impose a replenishment period. A synchronous environmental veto, in the presence of environmental stochasticity, was sufficient to produce observed variability and synchrony in reproduction. In the past, vetoes like frost events that prevent reproduction have been perceived as negative for plants. In fact, they could be selectively favored as a way to create mast seeding.

Climate variation, reproductive frequency and acorn yield in English Oaks

AIMS -

Annually variable, but synchronous production of large seed crops ('masting') is a widespread phenomenon in temperate trees. Mounting concerns about the impacts of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on plant reproduction, gives urgency to our need to understand better the role of climate on tree reproduction, and in particular, mast events. Unlike our understanding of reproductive phenology however, there is little consensus regarding how climate affects plant reproductive effort, or indeed the actual environmental triggers that underpin masting behaviour.

METHODS -

We used a 27-year record of acorn yield from a population of 12 Quercus robur trees located in southern England to compare masting frequency and post-dispersal acorn yield each year for each tree, with long-term weather data over the same period. We focussed on discrete or sequential climate cues (temperature, precipitation, and frost days) as likely predictors of oak reproduction.

IMPORTANT FINDINGS -

Annual post-dispersal acorn crop varied greatly; i.e. no acorns in 14 of the 27 years, but there was no sequential pattern of crop versus non-crop years indicating that weather, rather than resource limitation alone, dictated the timing of reproduction. Crop years were instead most closely associated with relatively cool late summer conditions in the preceding year, followed by anomalous summer warmth within crop year. Acorn yield increased following dry April and above average May and June temperatures within crop year. Although our results support a general association between warm late spring and summer conditions, and crop frequency and yield respectively, the influence of cooler later summer conditions in the year prior to masting highlights how a combination of weather cues may dictate the occurrence of mast years. Consequently, our results corroborate not only the hypothesis that temperature differentials between consecutive years, not absolute temperatures, may be the better predictor of mast seeding events, but lend support also to the suggestion that reproductive failure and resource accumulation resulting from a climate-linked environmental veto, drives future reproductive synchronization in temperate tree species.

Weather cues associated with masting behavior dampen the negative autocorrelation between past and current reproduction in oaks

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

The influence of weather conditions on masting and the ecological advantages of this reproductive behavior have been the subject of much interest. Weather conditions act as cues influencing reproduction of individual plants, and similar responses expressed across many individuals lead to population-level synchrony in reproductive output. In turn, synchrony leads to benefits from economies of scale such as enhanced pollination success and seed predator satiation. However, there may also be individual-level benefits from reproductive responses to weather cues, which may explain the origin of masting in the absence of economies of scale. In a previous study, we found support for a mechanism whereby individual responses to weather cues attenuate the negative autocorrelation between past and current annual seed production-a pattern typically attributed to resource limitation and reproductive tradeoffs among years.

METHODS

Here we provide a follow-up and more robust evaluation of this hypothesis in 12 species of oaks (Quercus spp.), testing for a negative autocorrelation (tradeoff) between past and current reproduction and whether responses to weather cues associated with masting reduce the strength of this negative autocorrelation.

KEY RESULTS

Our results showed a strong negative autocorrelation for 11 of the species, and that species-specific reproductive responses to weather cues dampened this negative autocorrelation in 10 of them.

CONCLUSIONS

This dampening effect presumably reflects a reduction in resource limitation or increased resource use associated with weather conditions, and suggests that responses to weather cues conferring these advantages should be selected for based on individual benefits.

Stochastic assessment of management strategies for a Mediterranean peri-urban wild boar population

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) population spread into urban and periurban areas has exacerbated conflicts with humans. There is a need for planned wild boar management strategies, and Population viability analysis (PVA) combined with perturbation analyses allow the assessment of the management effort of control methods. Our study aims to develop stochastic predictive models of the increasing wild boar population of the 80 km² peri-urban Mediterranean area of Collserola Natural Park (CNP), located near Barcelona, Spain, as well as assessing specific management measures (including reduced food availability, selective harvest, and reduction in fertility). Population parameters were estimated from previously published census and hunting data provided by the CNP and the local hunting administration. The results revealed that under the current conditions the CNP wild boar population will continue to increase. The most efficient strategy to reduce wild boar abundance was a combination of reducing supplementary anthropogenic food resources and selective removal of juvenile (<1 year) and yearling (1–2 years) wild boar. These strategies will probably be also the most efficient ones in other oversupplemented increasing wild boar populations in similar situations, although specific studies will be needed to fine-tune the best management option for each context. PVA allows the prediction of future population trends and the assessment of the efficacy and efficiency of potential management strategies before implementing management measures.