Changes in Sugar-Sweetened Soda Consumption, Weight, and Waist Circumference: 2-Year Cohort of Mexican Women

Change analysis for intermediate disease markers in nutritional epidemiology: a causal inference perspective

BACKGROUND

Several approaches are commonly used to estimate the effect of diet on changes of various intermediate disease markers in prospective studies, including "change-score analysis", "concurrent change-change analysis" and "lagged change-change analysis". Although empirical evidence suggests that concurrent change-change analysis is most robust, consistent, and biologically plausible, in-depth dissection and comparison of these approaches from a causal inference perspective is lacking. We intend to explicitly elucidate and compare the underlying causal model, causal estimand and interpretation of these approaches, intuitively illustrate it with directed acyclic graph (DAG), and further clarify strengths and limitations of the recommended concurrent change-change analysis through simulations.

METHODS

Causal model and DAG are deployed to clarify the causal estimand and interpretation of each approach theoretically. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the performance of distinct approaches under different extents of time-invariant heterogeneity and the performance of concurrent change-change analysis when its causal identification assumptions are violated.

RESULTS

Concurrent change-change analysis targets the contemporaneous effect of exposure on outcome (measured at the same survey wave), which is more relevant and plausible in studying the associations of diet and intermediate biomarkers in prospective studies, while change-score analysis and lagged change-change analysis target the effect of exposure on outcome after one-period timespan (typically several years). Concurrent change-change analysis always yields unbiased estimates even with severe unobserved time-invariant confounding, while the other two approaches are always biased even without time-invariant heterogeneity. However, concurrent change-change analysis produces almost linearly increasing estimation bias with violation of its causal identification assumptions becoming more serious.

CONCLUSIONS

Concurrent change-change analysis might be the most superior method in studying the diet and intermediate biomarkers in prospective studies, which targets the most plausible estimand and circumvents the bias from unobserved individual heterogeneity. Importantly, careful examination of the vital identification assumptions behind it should be underscored before applying this promising method.

A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in California: Projected Benefits for Population Obesity and Health Equity

INTRODUCTION

Amid the successes of local sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes, interest in state-wide policies has grown. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical 2-cent-per-ounce excise tax in California and its implications for population health and health equity.

METHODS

Using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model, tax impacts on health, health equity, and cost effectiveness over 10 years in California were projected, both overall and stratified by race/ethnicity and income. Expanding on previous models, differences in the effect of intake of SSBs on weight by BMI category were incorporated. Costing was performed in 2020, and analyses were conducted in 2021-2022.

RESULTS

The tax is projected to save $4.55 billion in healthcare costs, prevent 266,000 obesity cases in 2032, and gain 114,000 quality-adjusted life years. Cost-effectiveness metrics, including cost/quality-adjusted life year gained, were cost saving. Spending on SSBs was projected to decrease by $33 per adult and $26 per child overall in the first year. Reductions in obesity prevalence for Black and Hispanic Californians were 1.8 times larger than for White Californians, and reductions for adults with lowest incomes (<130% Federal Poverty Level) were 1.4 times the reduction among those with highest incomes (>350% Federal Poverty Level). The tax is projected to save $112 in obesity-related healthcare costs per $1 invested.

CONCLUSIONS

A state-wide SSB tax in California would be cost saving, lead to reductions in obesity and improvement in SSB-related health equity, and lead to overall improvements in population health. The policy would generate more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue annually that can also be used to improve health equity.

Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains.

METHODS

This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022.

RESULTS

Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people).

CONCLUSIONS

Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and weight gain in children and adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implicated in fueling the obesity epidemic.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to update a synthesis of the evidence on SSBs and weight gain in children and adults.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched through September 8, 2022, for prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated intake of SSBs in relation to BMI and body weight in children and adults, respectively. Eligible interventions were compared against a noncaloric control. Study-level estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and presented as β-coefficients with 95% CIs for cohorts and weighted mean differences (MDs) with 95% CIs for RCTs.

RESULTS

We identified 85 articles including 48 in children (40 cohorts, n = 91,713; 8 RCTs, n = 2783) and 37 in adults (21 cohorts, n = 448,661; 16 RCTs, n = 1343). Among cohort studies, each serving/day increase in SSB intake was associated with a 0.07-kg/m² (95% CI: 0.04 kg/m², 0.10 kg/m²) higher BMI in children and a 0.42-kg (95% CI: 0.26 kg, 0.58 kg) higher body weight in adults. RCTs in children indicated less BMI gain with SSB reduction interventions compared with control (MD: -0.21 kg/m²; 95% CI: -0.40 kg/m², -0.01 kg/m²). In adults, randomization to addition of SSBs to the diet led to greater body weight gain (MD: 0.83 kg; 95% CI: 0.47 kg, 1.19 kg), and subtraction of SSBs led to weight loss (MD: -0.49 kg; 95% CI: -0.66 kg, -0.32 kg) compared with the control groups. A positive linear dose-response association between SSB consumption and weight gain was found in all outcomes assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our updated systematic review and meta-analysis expands on prior evidence to confirm that SSB consumption promotes higher BMI and body weight in both children and adults, underscoring the importance of dietary guidance and public policy strategies to limit intake. This meta-analysis was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews as CRD42020209915.

Relation of Change or Substitution of Low- and No-Calorie Sweetened Beverages With Cardiometabolic Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

Adverse associations of low- and no-calorie sweetened beverages (LNCSB) with cardiometabolic outcomes in observational studies may be explained by reverse causality and residual confounding.

PURPOSE

To address these limitations we used change analyses of repeated measures of intake and substitution analyses to synthesize the association of LNCSB with cardiometabolic outcomes.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched up to 10 June 2021 for prospective cohort studies with ≥1 year of follow-up duration in adults.

STUDY SELECTION

Outcomes included changes in clinical measures of adiposity, risk of overweight/obesity, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease, and total mortality.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent reviewers extracted data, assessed study quality, and assessed certainty of evidence using GRADE. Data were pooled with a random-effects model and expressed as mean difference (MD) or risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 14 cohorts (416,830 participants) met the eligibility criteria. Increase in LNCSB intake was associated with lower weight (5 cohorts, 130,020 participants; MD -0.008 kg/year [95% CI -0.014, -0.002]). Substitution of LNCSB for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was associated with lower weight (three cohorts, 165,579 participants; MD, -0.12 [-0.14, -0.10,] kg/y) and lower incidence of obesity (OB) (one cohort, 15,765 participants; RR 0.88 [95% CI 0.88, 0.89]), coronary heart disease (six cohorts, 233,676 participants; 0.89 [0.81, 0.98]), cardiovascular disease mortality (one cohort, 118,363 participants; 0.95 [0.90, 0.99]), and total mortality (one cohort, 118,363 participants; 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]) with no adverse associations across other outcomes. Substitution of water for SSB showed lower weight (three cohorts, 165,579 participants; MD -0.10 kg/year [-0.13, -0.06]), lower waist circumference (one cohort, 173 participants; -2.71 cm/year [-4.27, -1.15]) and percent body fat (one cohort, 173 participants; -1.51% per year [-2.61, -0.42]), and lower incidence of OB (one cohort, 15,765 participants; RR 0.85 [0.75, 0.97]) and T2D (three cohorts, 281,855 participants; 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]). Substitution of LNCSB for water showed no adverse associations.

LIMITATIONS

The evidence was low to very low certainty owing to downgrades for imprecision, indirectness, and/or inconsistency.

CONCLUSIONS

LNCSB were not associated with cardiometabolic harm in analyses that model the exposure as change or substitutions. The available evidence provides some indication that LNCSB in their intended substitution for SSB may be associated with cardiometabolic benefit, comparable with the standard of care, water.

Current WHO recommendation to reduce free sugar intake from all sources to below 10% of daily energy intake for supporting overall health is not well supported by available evidence

Sugar is widely consumed over the world. Although the mainstream view is that high added or free sugar consumption leads to obesity and related metabolic diseases, controversies exist. This narrative review aims to highlight important findings and identify major limitations and gaps in the current body of evidence in relation to the effect of high sugar intakes on health. Previous animal studies have shown that high sucrose or fructose consumption causes insulin resistance in the liver and skeletal muscle and consequent hyperglycemia, mainly because of fructose-induced de novo hepatic lipogenesis. However, evidence from human observational studies and clinical trials has been inconsistent, where most if not all studies linking high sugar intake to obesity focused on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and studies focusing on sugars from solid foods yielded null findings. In our opinion, the substantial limitations in the current body of evidence, such as short study durations, use of supraphysiological doses of sugar or fructose alone in animal studies, and a lack of direct comparisons of the effects of solid compared with liquid sugars on health outcomes, as well as the lack of appropriate controls, seriously curtail the translatability of the findings to real-world situations. It is quite possible that "high" sugar consumption at normal dietary doses (e.g., 25% daily energy intake) per se-that is, the unique effect of sugar, especially in the solid form-may indeed not pose a health risk for individuals apart from the potential to reduce the overall dietary nutrient density, although newer evidence suggests "low" sugar intake (<5% daily energy intake) is just as likely to be associated with nutrient dilution. We argue the current public health recommendations to encourage the reduction of both solid and liquid forms of free sugar intake (e.g., sugar reformulation programs) should be revised due to the overextrapolation of results from SSBs studies.

Changes in Sugar Sweetened Beverage Intake Are Associated with Changes in Body Composition in Mexican Adolescents: Findings from the ELEMENT Cohort

Changes in consumption of sugar sweetened beverage (SSBs) have been associated with increased body mass index (BMI), but little work has evaluated the effect on waist circumference (WC) and body fat percentage during adolescence, a period characterized by rapid growth and change in dietary behaviors. We examined the relationship of changes in SSB intake and changes in adiposity over two years in 464 Mexican adolescents. Food frequency questionnaires were used to sum intake of regular soda, coffee with sugar, tea with sugar, sweetened water with fruit, chocolate milk, corn atole, and a sweetened probiotic milk beverage. Linear regression models were used to estimate the associations of changes in SSBs with changes in BMI, body fat percentage, and WC, adjusting for sex, socioeconomic status, screen time, physical activity, age, and change in age. Adolescents who increased their daily SSB intake by >2 serving had a −2.72% higher body fat percentage (95% CI: 0.61, 4.82); a 1−2 serving increase was associated with a 2.49 cm increase (95% CI: 0.21, 4.76) in WC compared with those with no change in intake. Within an adolescent sample, changes in SSB intake were related to concomitant changes in body fat percentage and WC, but not BMI.

Tolerable upper intake level for dietary sugars

Following a request from five European Nordic countries, the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA) was tasked to provide scientific advice on a tolerable upper intake level (UL) or a safe level of intake for dietary (total/added/free) sugars based on available data on chronic metabolic diseases, pregnancy-related endpoints and dental caries. Specific sugar types (fructose) and sources of sugars were also addressed. The intake of dietary sugars is a well-established hazard in relation to dental caries in humans. Based on a systematic review of the literature, prospective cohort studies do not support a positive relationship between the intake of dietary sugars, in isocaloric exchange with other macronutrients, and any of the chronic metabolic diseases or pregnancy-related endpoints assessed. Based on randomised control trials on surrogate disease endpoints, there is evidence for a positive and causal relationship between the intake of added/free sugars and risk of some chronic metabolic diseases: The level of certainty is moderate for obesity and dyslipidaemia (> 50-75% probability), low for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and type 2 diabetes (> 15-50% probability) and very low for hypertension (0-15% probability). Health effects of added vs. free sugars could not be compared. A level of sugars intake at which the risk of dental caries/chronic metabolic diseases is not increased could not be identified over the range of observed intakes, and thus, a UL or a safe level of intake could not be set. Based on available data and related uncertainties, the intake of added and free sugars should be as low as possible in the context of a nutritionally adequate diet. Decreasing the intake of added and free sugars would decrease the intake of total sugars to a similar extent. This opinion can assist EU Member States in setting national goals/recommendations.

Does weight change modify the association between the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and 100% fruit juice and the risk of metabolic syndrome?

BACKGROUND & AIMS

This study aimed to determine the prospective relationship between the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and 100% fruit juice and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to investigate whether weight change can modify this association in a representative sample of the population of Tehran, Iran.

METHODS

In this 8.9-year follow-up study, the consumption of SSBs and 100% fruit juice by 1915 individuals, who participated in Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS), was examined using a validated food frequency questionnaire. The MetS was defined according to the Joint Interim Statement. Participants were categorized as those who lost weight (≥-2%), those with weight stability (-1.9%-1.9%), and those who gained weight (≥2%). The Cox regression model was used to determine the relationship between the consumption of SSBs and 100% fruit juice and the risk of MetS and weight gain ≥2%. Also, the modifying effect of weight change including weight loss, weight stability and weight gain on the relationship between SSBs and 100% fruit juice consumption and the incidence of MetS was assessed.

RESULTS

There was no significant association between the consumption of SSBs and the risk of MetS in the crude model; however, after adjustments for confounders, a significant positive association was found between the consumption of SSBs and the risk of MetS (HR: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.07-1.66). Also, no significant association was observed between the consumption of 100% fruit juice and the risk of MetS in the crude model. However, after adjustments for the potential confounders, 100% fruit juice was inversely associated with the MetS risk (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.63-0.95). The consumption of SSBs and 100% fruit juice was positively associated with weight gain (≥2% during the follow-up). Nevertheless, after adjustments for lifestyle and dietary factors, there was no significant association between the consumption of SSBs and weight gain. On the other hand, the consumption of 100% fruit juice was positively associated with the increased risk of weight gain (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.20-1.65). Among participants with weight loss, the first, second and third tertiles of 100% fruit juice reduced the risk of MetS by 29% (HR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.51-0.99), 47% (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.37-0.75) and 35% (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.46-0.92), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although 100% fruit juice reduced the risk of MetS, its consumption must be limited due to its positive effect on weight gain. On the other hand, the consumption of 100% fruit juice reduced the risk of MetS, depending on the individual's weight change. Also, high consumption of SSBs was associated with the incidence of MetS.

M. CM, Barrientos-Gutiérrez T. T, Salmerón J. J, Bautista-Arredondo S. Willingness to pay for an intervention that reduces soda consumption among a sample of middle-class adult Mexicans

BACKGROUND

Despite the growing public awareness of the adverse health effects of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) consumption in Mexico, little is known about the population's intention to reduce SSB consumption and the social value of interventions to accomplish such behavioral change. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the willingness to pay (WTP) for an intervention that reduces soda consumption by half in Mexico.

METHODS

We applied contingent valuation methods in a sample of 471 Mexican adults from a cohort study. We assessed the relative value of benefits by providing incremental information to participants in three scenarios: soda consumption reduction, + health benefits, + social benefits. To estimate factors associated with the WTP, we ran an interval regression.

RESULTS

87% of respondents reported they would like to reduce SSB consumption. High soda consumption, intention to reduce soda consumption and higher household income are associated with higher WTP. We found that the WTP increases as additional benefits are provided. The WTP, as a proportion of income, is higher for the lowest income level.

CONCLUSION

The average WTP per person may be seen as the minimum amount the country should invest on interventions to reduce soda consumption.

Association between sugar-sweetened beverages and waist circumference in adult populations: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND & AIM

Based on previous studies, Sugar-Sweetened beverages (SSB) can increase the risk of obesity and obesity-related disorders. However, findings are conflicting. The aim of the present study was to summarize the association between the intake of SSB and waist circumference (WC) in adult populations.

METHODS

Four electronic databases including PubMed/Medline, Web of Knowledge, Scopus, and EMBASE were considered to collect eligible papers until 31 January 2019 with English language.

RESULTS

Finally, we reached 7 eligible cohort studies for both qualitative and quantitative synthesis. Based on the pooled 10 effect sizes, we found that the consumption of SSB can increase WC by 14%. However, it was not statistically significant and the between-study heterogeneity was high (95%CI: 0.86, 1.51; I²: 90.8%). We also observed that soda drink can increase WC by 31% (95%CI: 1.03, 1.66; I²:0%).

CONCLUSION

The current systematic review and meta-analysis revealed that the consumption of SSB can increase WC by 14% in adult populations. However, this value was not statistically significant. However, more prospective studies are necessary to make a decision on the link between the consumption of SSB and abdominal obesity.

Cost-Effectiveness Of The Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax In Mexico

An excise tax of 1 peso per liter on sugar-sweetened beverages was implemented in Mexico in 2014. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of this tax and an alternative tax scenario of 2 pesos per liter. We developed a cohort simulation model calibrated for Mexico to project the impact of the tax over ten years. The current tax is projected to prevent 239,900 cases of obesity, 39 percent of which would be among children. It could also prevent 61,340 cases of diabetes, lead to gains of 55,300 quality-adjusted life-years, and avert 5,840 disability-adjusted life-years. The tax is estimated to save $3.98 per dollar spent on its implementation. Doubling the tax to 2 pesos per liter would nearly double the cost savings and health impact. Countries with comparable conditions could benefit from implementing a similar tax.

Soft drink intake is associated with weight gain, regardless of physical activity levels: the health workers cohort study

Background

While soft drink intake is positively associated with weight gain, no previous study has investigated whether leisure-time physical activity modifies this association. We estimated the association between soft drink intake and body weight, and explored if this association differed by levels of leisure-time physical activity.

Methods

We used data from the health workers cohort study, a prospective study of Mexican adults (20 to 85y old), including 1268 health workers and their families, who were assessed at baseline (2004–2006) and follow-up (2010–2012). We assessed soft drink intake (cola and flavored soda) using a validated food frequency questionnaire. We measured leisure-time physical activity using a self-report questionnaire, and categorized according to the 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. Body weight was measured by trained personnel. The association between changes in soft drink intake and weight change, and if such association varied by levels of physical activity was estimated through fixed-effect models.

Results

An increase in one serving per day of soft drink was associated with 0.10 kg (95% CI 0.00, 0.19) increase in weight per year. This association was not modified by leisure-time physical activity, as demonstrated by the magnitude of the coefficient of the interaction between soft drink, leisure-time physical activity, and time (− 0.03 kg, 95% CI − 0.27 to 0.21); people who complied with the WHO physical activity recommendations gained 0.36 kg/year per serving of soft drink, compared to 0.48 kg/year for people without sufficient physical activity.

Conclusions

Soft drink intake was associated with weight gain. Leisure-time physical activity did not modify the association between soft drink intake and weight gain. This finding challenges the idea that leisure-time physical activity is sufficient to counterbalance weight gain associated to soft drink intake.

Association between soft drink, fruit juice consumption and obesity in Eastern Europe: cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of the HAPIEE study

BACKGROUND

Fruit juice and soft drink consumption have been shown to be related to obesity. However, this relationship has not been explored in Eastern Europe. The present study aimed to assess the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between fruit juice, soft drink consumption and body mass index (BMI) in Eastern European cohorts.

METHODS

Data from the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe population-based prospective cohort study, based in Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic, were used. Intakes of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB), artificially-sweetened beverage (ASB) and fruit juice were estimated from a food frequency questionnaire. Participant BMI values were assessed at baseline (n = 26 634) and after a 3-year follow-up (data available only for Russia, n = 5205).

RESULTS

Soft drink consumption was generally low, particularly in Russia. Compared to never drinkers of SSB, participants who drank SSB every day had a significantly higher BMI in the Czech [β-coefficient = 0.28; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.02-0.54], Russian (β-coefficient = 1.38; 95% CI = 0.62-2.15) and Polish (β-coefficient = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.29-1.37) cohorts. Occasional or daily ASB consumption was also positively associated with BMI in all three cohorts. Results for daily fruit juice intake were inconsistent, with a positive association amongst Russians (β-coefficient = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.28-1.21) but a negative trend in the Czech Republic (β-coefficient = -0.42; 95% CI = -0.86 to 0.02). Russians participants who drank SSB or ASB had an increased BMI after follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support previous studies suggesting that soft drink consumption (including SSBs and ASBs) is positively related to BMI, whereas our results for fruit juice were less consistent. Policies regarding these beverages should be considered in Eastern Europe to lower the risk of obesity.

Total Sugar Intake and Macro and Micronutrients in Children Aged 6-8 Years: The ANIVA Study

The objective of this study was to study the association between total sugar intake (TSI) levels of children aged 6–8 years old, nutrient intake and anthropometry. Food and beverage intakes were collected by a prospective three-day recall questionnaire. The 2237 children were distributed into three groups according to TSI percentiles. Mean TSI was 93.77 ± 25.72 g/day, 22%–25% of total caloric intake, with boys presenting an intake of 96.24 ± 24.34 g/day and girls 91.38 ± 26.78 g/day. Greater TSI was associated with higher body fat, parental education, energy intake, nutrients/1000 kcal, and lower weight z-scores, BMI z-scores, waist circumferences, and hip circumferences. Weight, height, and waist circumference had the highest R² while body fat had the lowest. The percentage of total energy derived (%E) from protein decreased as the %E from TSI increased, while the opposite was true for carbohydrates and saccharides, while for fiber intake, the medium groups presented the highest intake/1000 kcal. For the remaining macronutrients studied, intake/1000 kcal decreased when the %E from TSI increased. Calcium, iodine, magnesium, vitamin B2, folate, and vitamin C intake increased as the %E from TSI increased, while the opposite was true for vitamin B12. Fiber, ω-6 PUFA, iodine, folate, vitamin D, and vitamin E intakes were insufficient across most of the sample. TSI levels in children were identified to exceed adult recommendations. It is not clear what the effect of up to an average of 21% of energy coming from total sugars has on childhood obesity and further research is needed in the pediatric population, however, opportunities exist to improve sugar intake patterns.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Cardiometabolic Health: An Update of the Evidence

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have little nutritional value and a robust body of evidence has linked the intake of SSBs to weight gain and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and some cancers. Metabolic Syndrome (MetSyn) is a clustering of risk factors that precedes the development of T2D and CVD; however, evidence linking SSBs to MetSyn is not clear. To make informed recommendations about SSBs, new evidence needs to be considered against existing literature. This review provides an update on the evidence linking SSBs and cardiometabolic outcomes including MetSyn. Findings from prospective cohort studies support a strong positive association between SSBs and weight gain and risk of T2D and coronary heart disease (CHD), independent of adiposity. Associations with MetSyn are less consistent, and there appears to be a sex difference with stroke with greater risk in women. Findings from short-term trials on metabolic risk factors provide mechanistic support for associations with T2D and CHD. Conclusive evidence from cohort studies and trials on risk factors support an etiologic role of SSB in relation to weight gain and risk of T2D and CHD. Continued efforts to reduce intake of SSB should be encouraged to improve the cardiometabolic health of individuals and populations.

[Position paper on taxes to non-basic energy-dense foods and sugar-sweetened beverages]

In 2014 the Mexican government implemented taxes to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and nonessential energy-dense foods. In this manuscript, we analyze the scientific evidence linking the consumption of these products to chronic diseases, and summarize the studies that have evaluated the observed and expected impact of food taxes in Mexico. The implementation of taxes to unhealthy foods has reduced purchases of sugar-sweetened beverages in 7.6% and nonessential energy-dense foods in 7.4%. A reduction in consumption could decrease obesity prevalence by 2.5%; prevent 20 000 cardiovascular disease events; 189 000 diabetes cases; and 20 000 cardiovascular deaths. Additionally, this impact could save nearly 1 173 million dollars from healthcare costs. Taxes to unhealthy foods should be strengthened up and remain as an integral part of the national strategy to reduce obesity and chronic diseases in Mexico.

Expected changes in obesity after reformulation to reduce added sugars in beverages: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Several strategies have been proposed to reduce the intake of added sugars in the population. In Mexico, a 10% sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) tax was implemented in 2014, and the implementation of other nutritional policies, such as product reformulation to reduce added sugars, is under discussion. WHO recommends that all individuals consume less than 10% of their total energy intake (TEI) from added sugars. We propose gradually reducing added sugars in SSBs to achieve an average 10% consumption of added sugars in the Mexican population over 10 years and to estimate the expected impact of reformulation in adult body weight and obesity.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Baseline consumption for added sugars and SSBs, sex, age, socioeconomic status (SES), height, and weight for Mexican adults were obtained from the 2012 Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT). On average, 12.6% of the TEI was contributed by added sugars; we defined a 50% reduction in added sugars in SSBs over 10 years as a reformulation target. Using a dynamic weight change model, sugar reductions were translated into individual expected changes in body weight assuming a 43% caloric compensation and a 2-year lag for the full effect of reformulation to occur. Results were stratified by sex, age, and SES. Twelve years after reformulation, the TEI from added sugars is expected to decrease to 10%, assuming no compensation from added sugars; 44% of the population would still be above WHO recommendations, requiring further sugar reductions to food. Body weight could be reduced by 1.3 kg (95% CI -1.4 to -1.2) in the adult population, and obesity could decrease 3.9 percentage points (pp; -12.5% relative to baseline). Our sensitivity analyses suggest that the impact of the intervention could vary from 0.12 kg after 6 months to 1.52 kg in the long term.

CONCLUSIONS

Reformulation to reduce added sugars in SSBs could produce large reductions in sugar consumption and obesity in the Mexican adult population. This study is limited by the use of a single dietary recall and by data collected in all seasons except summer; still, these limitations should lead to conservative estimates of the reformulation effect. Reformulation success could depend on government enforcement and industry and consumer response, for which further research and evidence are needed.