The Impact of COVID-19 on Mortality in Italy: Retrospective Analysis of Epidemiological Trends

Retrospective Analyses of COVID-19 and Population Ageing Effects on Italian Mortality during the Pandemic

The spread of COVID-19 led to an extremely high number of deaths in Italy in 2020 with respect to previous years. Because the total number of deaths may depend on both the population structure and the mortality rate by age groups, a detailed overview of the Italian pandemic situation is here provided by following two main lines of inquiry: (i) checking for similarities and differences among mortality rates per age groups before and during the COVID-19 spread; (ii) analyzing the responsiveness of the Italian population structure to different mortality rates. Real-based evidence led us to conduct analyses for two groups associated with different population stages of life, referred to as younghood and adulthood periods. We focus on the Italian pandemic from February 2020 to March 2021. Our study helps to understand why elders dramatically impacted the total number of deaths. In addition, it reveals how badly the 2020 Italian population structure would have reacted to mortality rates already faced in the past. Finally, politicians, scientists, and journalists' statements and other ways of communicating information about COVID-19 are questioned in the light of scientific data available at that time.

There is a need for more precise models to assess the determinants of health crises like COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global mortality. While the causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and the anomalous increase in deaths is established, more precise and complex models are needed to determine the exact weight of epidemiological factors involved. Indeed, COVID-19 behavior is influenced by a wide range of variables, including demographic characteristics, population habits and behavior, healthcare performance, and environmental and seasonal risk factors. The bidirectional causality between impacted and impacting aspects, as well as confounding variables, complicates efforts to draw clear, generalizable conclusions regarding the effectiveness and cost-benefit ratio of non-pharmaceutical health countermeasures. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community and health authorities worldwide develop comprehensive models not only for the current pandemic but also for future health crises. These models should be implemented locally to account for micro-differences in epidemiological characteristics that may have relevant effects. It is important to note that the lack of a universal model does not imply that local decisions have been unjustified, and the request to decrease scientific uncertainty does not mean denying the evidence of the effectiveness of the countermeasures adopted. Therefore, this paper must not be exploited to denigrate either the scientific community or the health authorities.

The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Burden of Disease in the Adult and Elderly Population: A Systematic Review of Italian Evidence

COVID-19 is a major global health threat, with millions of confirmed cases and deaths worldwide. Containment and mitigation strategies, including vaccination, have been implemented to reduce transmission and protect the population. We conducted two systematic reviews to collect nonrandomized studies investigating the effects of vaccination on COVID-19-related complications and deaths in the Italian population. We considered studies conducted in Italian settings and written in English that contained data on the effects of vaccination on COVID-19-related mortality and complications. We excluded studies that pertained to the pediatric population. In total, we included 10 unique studies in our two systematic reviews. The results showed that fully vaccinated individuals had a lower risk of death, severe symptoms, and hospitalization compared to unvaccinated individuals. The review also looked at the impact of vaccination on post-COVID-19 syndrome, the effectiveness of booster doses in older individuals, and nationwide adverse events. Our work highlights the crucial role that vaccination campaigns have played in reducing the burden of COVID-19 disease in the Italian adult population, positively impacting the pandemic trajectory in Italy.

Common Statistical Errors in Scientific Investigations: A Simple Guide to Avoid Unfounded Decisions

During my experience as an author, peer reviewer, and editor during COVID-19, I have encountered - and committed - various errors related to the interpretation and use of statistical measures and tests. Primarily concerning health sciences such as epidemiology, infodemiology, and public health, the evidence used to inform a conclusion carries an extremely high weight as it translates into decisions made to preserve the population's well-being. Therefore, the aforementioned evidence must be reliable. This short guide discusses the most common and dangerous mistakes I have experienced during my scientific journey. Real and invented examples have been proposed and analyzed in detail, showing possible interpretations, both correct and incorrect, and their consequences. Such a framework makes it clear that a statistical test alone cannot answer any scientific questions. Indeed, the interpretation of results and the verification of assumptions and test eligibility - subject to the author's evaluation - are crucial components of the integrity of the scientific investigation. Before using a test or adopting a measure, we must ask ourselves the following fundamental questions: Are there valid reasons to explore my research question? Am I sure my approach can fully and adequately answer my research question? Am I sure that my model's assumptions - basic and hidden - are sufficiently satisfied? How could violating those assumptions affect the validity of the results and stakeholders? Is the effect size relevant regardless of statistical significance?

COVID-19 and Liver Surgery: How the Pandemic Affected an Italian Medium-Volume HBP Center

Introduction

While the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, it is even more evident that victims of the pandemic are not only those who contract the virus, but also the countless patients suffering from other serious diseases (i.e., tumor) who have undergone delayed potentially life-saving surgery due to a lack of beds. Like many hospitals, ours also initially blocked all elective oncologic surgery, but these operations were “recovered” and reintegrated in a relatively short time, thanks to the establishment of COVID-free wards and operating rooms with staff dedicated to oncological surgery. In tis context, our aim is to assess whether and how the severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has impacted our hepatobiliary surgery unit.

Methods

From our prospective database, we retrospectively took data from patients undergoing liver surgery in 2018–2019 (pre-COVID) and 2020–2021 (COVID period). Patients admitted to COVID-free wards must necessarily have a negative nasal swab from the previous 24 h.

Results

Between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2019 (Group 1), 101 patients were treated; during the pandemic [January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021 (Group 2)], 126 patients were treated. There was no statistical difference between the groups. The median postoperative hospital stay was 7 days for both groups; 7 patients had major complications (Clavien-Dindo > 3) in Group 1 and 11 in Group 2 (p = 0.795). A total of 4 patients died in Group 1 and 6 during the pandemic (p = 0.754). Tumor burden was significantly greater in Group 2 where nodule size, lymphadenectomy, and extrahepatic disease were significantly greater (p = 0.011, p = 0.004, and p = 0.026, respectively).

Conclusion

During the COVID pandemic, our HPB unit managed to offer a volume of tertiary-center hepatobiliary surgery without a significant impact in terms of length of stay, morbidity, or mortality despite the increase in tumor burden during the pandemic years.